WEBVTT
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The economy is very strong and inflationary
pressures are high, and it is therefore
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appropriate, in my view, to
consider wrapping up the taper of our asset
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purchases, which we actually announced that
the November meeting, perhaps a few months
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sooner. Fed Chair J Pale testifying
before Congress on Tuesday, adding to a
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risk off sentiment that began last week
with news about the new on the crome
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viroant of the covid nineteen, a
disease that is definitely put a chill on
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risk appetites on Wall Street. Welcome
to Alpha trader Aaron task and Stephen Alpher,
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joining us later on the show.
Peter Tstlar. He's the founding partner
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and portfolio manager of looser and capital
management and investment firm with roughly one and
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a half billion dollars of assets.
He's also the CEO of the European Sustainable
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Growth Acquisition Corp, which is a
spack, so we can talk to him
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about spacks and electric vehicles. But
first, Stephen. You know we always
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say you can't make too much of
any one day of trading, but it
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did seem like Friday of last week, when the news hit about this veryant
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out of South Africa. It definitely
sent a chill. There was a big
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down day. Obviously that after Thanksgiving
holiday shortened session, but that kind of
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nervousness is carrying over as we start
this week and head into December. Yeah,
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and and before you know, it's
my instinct to kind of Pooh Pooh
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any any this news about the varying
at all. But you know, I
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was probably on here and you know, February, two thousand and twenty Poop,
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Poo and covid. So you never
know. You know what's going to
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happen and, more importantly, you
never know what the government response or around
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the world. You didn't never know
what that what that's going to be.
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So you know, clearly was a
thin trading session Friday and everything got killed
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at. It seemed like everything was
maybe chilled out a little bit this morning
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and there was kind of a rough
overnight session. Some comments from the Maderna
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see that he didn't think that our
seem to be effective and it could be
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months before vaccine could come out for
this. They really said. Things tumbling,
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but by the time the open had
come around, your up to bounce
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back to nearly flattened US stocks were
were rolled down a little bit, and
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then then j pal hit us with
some really surprising, kind of hawkish comments,
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given given this new variant and giving
kind of his previous comments. Right,
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and I should know. We're talking
leave morning on Tuesday, and as
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we're speaking now, the dad,
the UMP and the NASDAC each down about
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one point three percent. Crude oils
down four percent. Probably a more interesting
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development there, because it was just
a couple weeks ago we were talking about
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hundred dollar oil as maybe in the
offing. Doesn't look that's happening anytime.
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See obviously direct reaction to fears of
more lockdowns and economic activity slowing down because
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of this, I'm crime variant,
and you meant in the Madonna CEO,
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Stephane Ban Cell, I believe,
is how a pronounce his name, predicted
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a, quote, material drop in
the existing shots efficacy and damped expectations that
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a new one could be ready any
time soon. That was an interview with
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the FT and then the cofounder of
Maderna on new Bar afion, told Bloomberg
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television, quote, this threat is
something we have not seen before the number
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of mutations on this virus are surprising. We have to take it for the
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serious threat that is pooses. Now
he went on to say we're you know,
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these guys are scientists. We need
to get the data together and see
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if the existing vaccine works or not, or do we have to create a
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new one. I believe is last
week the CEEO fires or said they thought
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a hundred days to get in a
new vaccine specific for the amacrom variant,
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which, in the greatest scheme of
things, is incredible that it would only
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take a hundred days, but that
seems like a long time, certainly for
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financial markets, and I'm I guess
I'm kicking myself a little bit Steven,
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because I think you and I have
talked offline about covid and we mentioned a
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couple times in this podcast. But
I think maybe all of us have been
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sort of load into a false sense
of security that this was all behind us,
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and clearly it's not. No,
it's not. But again I'm shocked
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at Pale doing this. And this
is kind of like I don't know if,
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now that he's got to nominate his
new nomination security feels like he can
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get hawkish. Wouldn't surprise me if, after after his testimony's ever, somebody
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from the Biden Administration or Congressional leadership
reminds and Hey, you've only been renominated.
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Your nomination is not yet past past
Congress yet, so be really ligous.
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You know, if he kind of
what do they call that, amend
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and revised his remarks at some future
date. Right, that you make.
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You make a great point indirectly that
this is a political appointment. The Biden
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is free administration is certainly concerned about
inflation and the impact it's having on consumer
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sentiment and thus voter sentiment. You
know, the recent polling data for the
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bid administration has not been good,
and that's an understatement. And you know
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Powell retiring the word transitory. I
think that was Faye to complete, but
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you're right, maybe now that he's
got renomination he thinks okay, my mandate
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now is really to focus on the
inflation side of the picture and not the
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the employment side of the picture,
which you've been talking a lot about,
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and certainly Jenny Yellen's talking a lot
about that. She's also testifying today,
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on Tuesday as we're speaking, oh
by the way, talking about the need
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for the Congress to address the dead
ceiling and they need some kind of stop
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gap funding bill to avoid another government
shutdown. So there's a lot of drama
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and swirl in the air. And
again our friend Hollie and misler always says,
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you know, it's price dictates sentiment. So the markets going down and
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it had been going down before Friday. You know, I remember we had
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Jim Muray on a week ago.
Thing he was short the SMP that,
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you know, you just thought things
have got a little bit ahead of themselves.
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Not Looking for a huge the climb, but the market was down,
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you know, a couple of percents
before Friday's big cell off. And the
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amicrome data keep, you know,
coming out and that's scare. So not
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to read too much into it.
But again, all the headlines seem negative
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when the market is moving down as
it has been. You know, let's
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say caught the last week or so. I've been saying for months that he
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fed rhetoric was was completely out of
comportment with what was going on in the
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economy, which was, which is
undergoing an inflationary boomlet and for them to
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be saying rate hikes are off the
table until late in two thousand and twenty
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three. You know, they were
saying that as recently as a summer was
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just ridiculous. So they have moved
up the time table. Most are expecting,
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you know, some sort of rate
hike in two thousand and twenty two
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one or two, which to me, with with seven six, seven percent
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inflation, seems crazy. But it
just couldn't. It can't continue in this
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fashion. The inflation rate, the
boom and finance the boom and asset markets.
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There has to be some sort of
response from the Fed. Yeah,
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it's just it's just interesting, you
know. That said, as it always
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does, you know, behind the
curve, and it took them a while
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to sort of come around to this
idea that. Yeah, and Flatian's not
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transitory, which we've been talking about
it with various guests for six months now
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at least, and they're saying,
oh, there's an inflation problem just now,
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as this variant of covid poses the
potential to slow down the global economy,
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which just looked like it was getting
back on its legs, and the
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supply chain bottle next work we're starting
to resolve to be determined whether we go
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back into that kind of, you
know, bottleneck concern. But I'm going
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to take the under on how many
times the Fed raises rates next year just
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as a general rule. That's that's
served me well the last decade plus and
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you know, I think lacy hunt, you know, gave an even better
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explanation as to why when he was
here a couple weeks ago and encourage folks
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to listen to that episode of the
haven't already. But it is interesting.
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You know, the other ten years
it's back below one point five percent.
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was at one point four one percent
earlier this morning. To your earlier point
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that things got a little bit better
as the morning war on. But crude
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is that I mentioned earlier, you
know, still getting taken to the woodshed.
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It's down four percent now. West
Texas at sixty seven dollars and fourteen
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cents. And again it was just
a week ago with Jim Muryo it was
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in the high s and we talked
about is it going to a hundred?
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And so it's just amazing to me
how quickly the story changes with the narrative
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changes in the financial markets. If
it's state, if it's stays get down
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there, it's going to ease some
pressure on headline inflation, right. So
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that might big things a little bit
easier for the Fed man not do anything
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into cornflation? I don't know,
but but it will certainly he that headline
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rate, which the last last we
look with six point two percent. That's
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going to ease if the price of
oil stays low. So that'll that'll be
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good for them. I would also
know Germany, she used to be home
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of of the of the rock solid
Deutsche Mark, no longer, is also
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experiencing six percent inflation and their ten
year yield is negative thirty four basis points
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right now. Yeah, that's a
pretty that's that's crazy, crazy, ridiculous.
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Negative yields, negative real yields for
for the investors in German bluns.
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Yeah, you remind me of two
things. That there was. I saw
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a headline on the Bloomberg earlier today
quote odds wager on negative rates return as
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fed hike bets are paired. So
now I believe that that came out before,
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before Palas testimony. Robets that federers
are policy reats may actually drop.
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Those zero are once again being made
as the onset of the omicron variant cast
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doubts on the economic outlook. And
that's those are Eurodollar contracts on the CME
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group are sponsor. Thank you,
with always. So it's just these are
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thinly traded for the most part securities. But interesting that that talk is once
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again those whispers around in the air
and the other then you run me up.
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Is that your favorite currency? This
was frank, has been rallying,
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not so much today but the last
few days, again as a flank to
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safety trade. And you know,
at least I'm like the Dotsch Bake.
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It's still serving. It's a storic
purpose. Yeah, as far as the
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negative rate bet, you know,
I speak of someone who is, who
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actually made that bet around the time
of the global financial crisis. I buying.
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I bought, you're a dollar calls
struck at a hundred. I didn't.
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I didn't take on nearly enough size
and I didn't hold onto the hill,
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hold onto the trade nearly long enough. So I've been there, done
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that. Regretted to this day that
I didn't pour every every pain I have
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into it. So it and you
know, to your point about taking the
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under unfed tightening, it may not
be the worst worst thing in the world
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to take. Take a few dollars
and make that bet. Yeah, interesting,
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and and look if your regrets are
you did enough for hold it long
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enough. That tells me you made
some money on the trade, which is
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better than losing your shirt on something. I think those are the ones I
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really regret. And would you be
better? So you're saying, would you
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be betting today that we have negative
rates through in the US, or is
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it is that? Obviously that's a
speculative investment or bet. I don't see
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any were all with tape making a
very small bet on something like that.
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To me it's not as much of
a no brainer as it was in two
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thousand and eight, two thousand and
nine. But you never know, if
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this cod covid, this covid variant, comes comes roaring back and it causes
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more shutdowns, the fat is going
to, you know, stop worrying about
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inflation and they're going to bail like
crazy, and that's going to include cut
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of cutting rates back to zero.
Yeah, exactly. And so before we
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move on to to our guests,
Peter and our discussion of specific stocks,
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you know I often hearkened back to
but our guests say on this program the
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some I'm going to point to myself
a couple weeks ago, I don't recall
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who we were talking to you,
but I said we were talking about how
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the consensus is we're going to have
like a big, you know, explosive
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movements the end of the year,
and I asked our guests, you know,
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are you worried about that? Because
it's consensus and there was, you
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know, generally bullish chatter in the
air. And you again, everyone everybody's
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looking for something usual. The opposite
happens. And you know the it was
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just a week ago the doubt was
nearly at thirty six thousand. Seemed like
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everything's wonderful and we've had a sharp
job. Only a couple percentage points.
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You know, again, I don't
see any evidence that there's going to be
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a crash of any kind or this
is the end of the bull market or
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anything of that nature. Because again, as you reference before, if,
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if things get too scary in the
financial markets, you know, Japal will
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take their foot off the break.
You know, he's just he's basically put
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his foot over the break. Now
he's hovering over it. He hasn't really
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tapped it yet. He's just talked
about tapping it and he may not do
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that. I mean, we'll see, obviously, what transpires. Does December
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obviously traditionally gets strong moved into the
end of the year. We shall see
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how that pans out. But again
I'm just always amazed at how quickly the
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narrative changes. More than ever in
the financial markets. It seems to me
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it's like the risk on, riskoff
thing. And then used to be this
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way. I now know I'm beating
the night, I'm dating myself. So
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moving on from that, I know
you had some thoughts about the other what
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seemed like the big news to start
the week twitter, Jack Dorsey stepping down
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as CEO. Parague Agrowall, I
believe, type announce his name, who
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had been the CTEO, is going
to become the CEO. Twitter stock at
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first jumped on that news and then
didn't really do much at the clothes as
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of yesterday. What are your thoughts
on on twitter here? Yeah, my
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thinking about twitter's changed over time,
but if you'd asked me a year ago,
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I would say twitter needs new leadership. Jack Dorsey's more more interested and
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and picking political fights and he is
and and running the company. That is
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that evolved over the last year where
I came to see Dorsey actually like almost
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like a prisoner at that company,
maybe the only adult in the room.
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You know, I think he was
kind of almost like forced out, like
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he's lost, he's kind of he
doesn't really have control over over kind of
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what twitter's doing anymore and it just, you know, he's in He's into
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Dick coin, he's into kind of
maybe some some I don't know, for
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lack of a better word, libertarian
leaning things, and he just I think
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he just wants to be done with
twitter and with all the little fights that
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twitter's picking with seemingly everybody nowadays.
The stock reaction since he left has,
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you know, has been really bad. I think it's down. It's down
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five percent today. After a big
rap, after a big pop yesterday that
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ended up in the red. Twitter
move very quickly this morning to a point.
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A new head of of think I
guess they called moderation, other people
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called head of censorship, and they
also introduced a new policy, very vague
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but basically, you know, kind
of against the posting of pictures or personal
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information of other folks. That could
be really extrapolated out to all kinds of
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things, all of which, seeming
seems to me, would be to hurt
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engagement with the platform, maybe opening
the door to, you know, some
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competitors. I saw somebody from mark
and Andrews and reason's shop, Asicstin Z,
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you know, kind of very excited
about the what they think are negative
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develops of twitter as popular maybe opening
the door to to something else coming in.
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That's right. So something that's coming
in meaning an acquirer or a competing
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product, a competing product developed along
the along the lines of like what they're
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calling web three, which is kind
of decentralized, which wouldn't be necessarily run
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by by is. That isn't that? Edit? I guess that's you know,
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but we're at it. No more
that read it certainly is no more
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like that. That's they've got.
Yeah, it was interesting. So,
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you know, twitter, on March
first of this year the stock was seventy
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seven dollars and sixty three cents.
As you mentioned it. It had a
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brief pop on the needs of Dorsey's
resignation, which a lot of folks were
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attributing to the idea of maybe him
stepping away opens the door for someone to
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come in and buy the company.
But there doesn't seem to be a natural
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bidder. By the way, facebook
is facing even more anti trust concerns overseas.
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England today telling him they have to
sell leave a Jiffy is the name
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of their gift platform that they bought. So you know twitters now you know
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under forty five dollar a season,
under forty four dollars, forty three and
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changes. We're talking currently. It's
you know, I'm a active, avid
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user of twitter right I'm I would
have addicted to it more than I like
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it. But the problem with twitter
always has been is that it's it's too
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small. You know, in the
world of social networks, other than journalists,
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politicians and celebrities, there really isn't
a natural place for most, I'll
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call them civilians, and many people
come to twitter and they can't figure it
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out and they leave. And if
you think about since twitter's founding, you
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know, snapchat has come along,
had its movement, instagrams had its moment,
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tick tocks having its moment. Now
they just they've never captured the youth
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market, which you know is what
you need on an ad driven world,
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certainly, and you know there's been
a lot of frustration with how the company's
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been run. When you think about
how Donald Trump, as president, used
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twitter as his main form of communication. How many times did we see people
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who own the stock or let this
stock say, like, how can they
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not monetize this thing better? Right? They just haven't been able to figure
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that out, you know, for
for worse for shareholders for sure. So
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I don't know what happened. What
becomes of twitter and who might acquire it
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other than, you know, a
private equity firm, but they're going to
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wait for much of the lower prices
before they do that. The fact that
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it's the CTEO, I guess,
became CEO. Now I don't know much
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about this guy might have. He's
obviously way more brilliants, got skills beyond
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anything I can even imagine. But
if you're talking about bringing in somebody who's
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going to lead a this great monetization
push of twitter, is is is this
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the fellow who's going to do it? All right, so we'll be break
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back when take a quick break and
we'll be back with our guests. Peter
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Taslar. He is founding partner and
portfolio manager of looser and capital management,
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which has roughly one and a half
billion dollars of assets. You're listening to
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Alpha trader. Welcome back to Alpha
trader are in task and and Steven Alpher.
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We are joined now by our guests, Peter Teslar. He's founding partner
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and portfolio manager of Lucer and capital
management, which is roughly wouldn't have billion
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dollars of assets. He's also the
CEO of the European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp,
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which, yes, is a spack, and recently announced plans to acquire
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ats tech energy, a German based
company that manufactures ev charging stations that can
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charge batteries in minutes without putting stream
on a city's electrical grids. Sounds maybe
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too good to be true, but
Peter, it's great to have you here.
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Welcome to Alpha trader. Thanks for
having me and yeah, that was
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a great introvection. That's it's good
I have learned to read, so you
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know, before we get into the
the nuts and bolts of your investments,
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Steve and I just talked at linked
about some of the big picture concerns that
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seemingly have propped up and just the
last week the Yamacrom variant of Covid obviously,
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and then on Tuesday morning j Palell
coming out with much more hawkish testimony
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than I think people expected. Does
any of that change how you're investing as
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we speak here today? Tuesday mid
day. Well, yeah, it's okay.
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The two elements right that are on
everybody's mind on a daily, it's
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not hourly, basis. Right now
it's the the new coverage variant on the
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crown, and then it's the fact
of whether inflation it's transitory or whether we
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are entering a period of sustainably higher
inflation levels. And everybody has their personal
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opinions about it. I think about
the new covid variant. I don't think
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we have enough information really to to
really make any finite decisions about whether this
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is more lethal or more transmissible or
whether the vaccines are working or not.
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I think you know the MODERNA CEO
came out with with the statement this morning
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that the vaccines may not work as
well for the new variant as for previous
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ones. They sometimes also wonder how
how independent the view is, right of
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commercial organization like Maderna. I think. I think it's to their advantage if
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they would have to actually come up
with a new booster Oka and new cocktail.
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Right. Think it's really in his
interest, or the share, their
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share all these interest that the existing
boosters are working against the new variants.
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But so so, I think I'm
sure they have the AI of the scientists
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will put proper checks and balances in
place, but I think all the statements
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that you're reading now or just too
early to draw conclusions from. Okay,
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so short, so, Siye,
so short story. Have you sold anything
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or taking any defensive steps since last
week when the report to the South African
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variant first started really getting a lot
of attention? Yes, yeah, so
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what we have done is, you
know, we've not really we've not really
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taken, if, a different stance
in terms of, okay, we want
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to be more or less exposed to
real economy, stocks or value or growth
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to certain factor. But what we've
done across the board is basically we reduced
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the gross exposure of the book a
little bit, expecting more volatility into year
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end. And Yeah, I think, I think. I think the lower
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gross exposure is appropriate, an appropriate
adjustment to make to its that and and
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you know, we don't have any
firm views as to whether this is going
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to have a lasting impact on of
course, the covid had a lasting impact
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on the economic growth, but where
whether this is going to be so much
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worse than any previous variants. Like
the debate and the Delta variant. So
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in terms of you know, pals
comments today, I think he has access
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the more data than we have.
But you know, our fundamental view is
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that, yes, you know,
there's spent of demand in the economy right
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now. On the other hand,
you see a lot of capacity being added
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in first week every vertical, every
industry worldwide. And then I think global
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GDP right now is not really that
much higher and pre covert of not nothing
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else, it's at the same level. So a lot of the lot of
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the inflation are our view, is
coming from bottle necking. So it's really
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shortage of shipping, bottle necking in
the ports and you know, the startup
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of facilities not going very smoothly.
Like them, and when the factories being
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shut down for a year, you
know, you invariably face some hiccups restarting
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those operations again. So we think
you could very well look at a situation
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about, you know, maybe twelve
eighteen months from now, and it may
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take longer than than that even but
where you you look at very low inflation
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rates again because no, number one, the comps will be very easy right
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you looking at at very high prices
right now. So maybe a year from
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now prices will not be that high
if that extra capacity and supply it's coming
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on stream. With the bottle necking, it's sort of easy and the pent
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of demand is also sort of easying. So we think all the all the
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lot of the underlying factors that sort
of were the cause for low inflation figures
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are still in place. And and
the and the and the big factor,
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we believe is is really technology.
Sort of people can comparison shop, you
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know, companies become more efficient,
more higher automation levels. So we think
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that that's really those driving factors are
still in place. So we think long
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term. Yes, short term,
I can see why my power wants to
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temper pretty primarily inflation expect expectations is
it can spin out of control right it's
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people think inflation is going to be
higher than let's become sort of a self
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fulfilling prophecy. So I can see
why he said what he said today.
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But again, I longer term I
wouldn't pay too much, you know,
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credence to it. You are musk, who has a little bit to do
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with Ev's tweeted out yesterday quote.
Oh Man, this year has been such
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a supply chain nightmare. And it's
not over. I'll provide an updated product
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robot on next earnings call and quote. So to the extent that there are
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shortages, that there are supply chain
issues, maybe that's a good thing for
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the companies it actually supply, the
nuts and bolts that drive it, that
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are driving vs because if, if, if, there are shortages, seems
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to me they have some pricing power. Yeah, so what we, as
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loose certain capital of done is really
we looked at that and the supply chain
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issues are real and and you know, in spite of our sort of Benine
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view on an eighteen to twenty four
months view basis, I think on the
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next twelf to eighteen months they will
continue to be real. And so what
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we have what we have done?
We basically went back and study to supply
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chain, particularly and EV's and all
other a lot of other technology supply chains.
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And where you see particularly shortage is
in the semiconductors. So well,
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we have invested quite aggressively is in
the in the catax place, right,
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so the the companies that make the
machinery to make semi conductors. And that's
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that's sort of you know, as
you can tell from my accent, probably
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I'm European. I was born and
raised in the Netherlands. That also happens
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to be a technology have in terms
of semiconductor technology. She have some world,
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global world leaders like ASML which as
the world's, you know, most
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sophisticated way for technology. You have
be semiconductors, which is basically making,
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you know, more manufacturing equipment for
the back end for the semi conductor manufacturers.
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00:28:34.799 --> 00:28:44.549
So so all guys like Intel,
Taiwan semiconductors, their their clients.
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They need to expand capacity because they
are supplying, in turn, to the
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ones like, you know, Samsung
and apple and producers of of consumer electronics.
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So but we decided to invest right
at the beginning of supply chain and
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we talked to these guys like asmlb
semiconductors, etc. On a weekly basis,
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00:29:12.490 --> 00:29:17.970
and on a weekly basis they see
their order back lock still increasing.
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00:29:18.609 --> 00:29:23.559
You see players like Intel, Taimewan
semi sort of panicking. They need to
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00:29:23.599 --> 00:29:30.359
expand capacity and it's expanded yesterday.
So they keep ordering and they're willing to
369
00:29:30.640 --> 00:29:33.960
pay higher prices because it's like,
okay, whoever base the most will get
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get get the most products the most
quickly. So there's a couple questions maybe
371
00:29:42.029 --> 00:29:47.069
more clarification for me on those points. So, first of all, you
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focus on Europe, you only invest
in European stocks. We do only invest
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in European stocks, but I think
it's a little bit of a misconception that,
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you know, if you only invest
in European stocks, you just invest
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in Europe. Actually, as a
matter of fact, that complete like asml
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00:30:07.890 --> 00:30:15.369
and a company like be semiconductor,
the ones that just mentioned. They happened
377
00:30:15.410 --> 00:30:19.609
to be listed in the Netherlands,
but their revenues are maybe, maybe,
378
00:30:19.730 --> 00:30:25.200
maybe twenty five percent Europe and the
rest is Asia. Right, they're globe
379
00:30:25.200 --> 00:30:27.000
there, global players, for sure. Yeah, they go their global players.
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00:30:27.079 --> 00:30:33.759
So you know, we we we
use that portal of investing in Europe
381
00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:41.710
just to maximize performance and we like
Europe as a portal because it's not as
382
00:30:41.789 --> 00:30:45.549
well covered by cell side and by
side analysts as many of the as the
383
00:30:45.630 --> 00:30:48.910
US stocks. For sure we have
more, we have more of an edge
384
00:30:49.059 --> 00:30:55.099
in European stocks than any new US
stocks. But look, if we if
385
00:30:55.140 --> 00:30:57.539
we like, if we like the
growth profile, growth picture in the US
386
00:30:57.660 --> 00:31:03.059
better than Europe, then we would
pick some stocks in Europe that have that
387
00:31:03.140 --> 00:31:07.609
are very heavily exposed to the United
States and similarly to Asia. We like
388
00:31:07.769 --> 00:31:12.089
that, or emerging markets. We
would like domestic you're if you think you
389
00:31:12.170 --> 00:31:17.890
know, Germany's and a coffee mode
and we focus on that. So we
390
00:31:18.089 --> 00:31:23.079
definitely you have a very global view
of the world, global investments to and
391
00:31:23.599 --> 00:31:29.960
again I we we use Europe as
a portal and and that's mostly because I
392
00:31:30.079 --> 00:31:33.829
was born and race there and my
business partner was born and raised there and
393
00:31:33.549 --> 00:31:37.710
we just knowed very well got it
to that. That certainly makes sense and
394
00:31:37.990 --> 00:31:44.829
you've you've answered my other misconception,
which was that you focus exclusively on the
395
00:31:45.589 --> 00:31:51.819
EV segment. You were you were
pitched to us from a PR firm a
396
00:31:51.900 --> 00:31:53.500
couple weeks ago. It seems like
a long time ago, but you know,
397
00:31:53.579 --> 00:31:57.660
ev stocks were you know, had
a bit of a mini craze in
398
00:31:57.740 --> 00:32:07.009
mid November after President Biden's infrastructure spending
bill was signed into law, which allocated
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00:32:07.049 --> 00:32:13.210
seven have billion dollars to the development
of five hundred thousand public ev charging stations.
400
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We also had the Ribby and Ipoh
which people were very excited about for
401
00:32:15.519 --> 00:32:20.599
a hot minute. It doesn't sound
like you would be invested in Ribbyan.
402
00:32:21.720 --> 00:32:30.230
But you know what was was that
a momentary bit of a rational bisubrians from
403
00:32:30.269 --> 00:32:32.750
the investing public, or or was
a legitimate reason for people to get excited
404
00:32:32.789 --> 00:32:36.589
over the sector? Here? I
should also know, for it's had a
405
00:32:36.670 --> 00:32:39.589
big jump GM you know, it's
had a big rally, in part on
406
00:32:39.710 --> 00:32:45.500
the you know, the expectation and
evidence that they are becoming more focused on
407
00:32:45.579 --> 00:32:50.779
the evs. Yeah, I think
it's interesting. Right. So, because
408
00:32:50.940 --> 00:32:55.940
coming from Europe, especially northern Europe, I think the whole concept of sustainability,
409
00:32:57.819 --> 00:33:02.210
carbon neutrality, etc. Is Much
more ingrained in the in the culture
410
00:33:02.329 --> 00:33:08.009
and into people's daily lives and also
into the corporate cultures. So maybe that's
411
00:33:08.049 --> 00:33:13.200
why I was pitched to you as
a as like an easy sustainability grew or
412
00:33:13.279 --> 00:33:16.640
something like that. If you I
have to say if you look at if
413
00:33:16.640 --> 00:33:21.680
you look at Scandinavia, if you
look at countries like Sweden, Norway,
414
00:33:21.799 --> 00:33:25.559
Denmark, Finland, etc. There
is a lot of innovation going on in
415
00:33:25.680 --> 00:33:32.589
terms of sustainability, carbon, carbon
capture technology, electric veh called, battery
416
00:33:32.670 --> 00:33:37.309
technology etc. So it is it
is a very good area to be exposed
417
00:33:37.349 --> 00:33:45.579
to if you if you want to
invest in ev related ev related themes and
418
00:33:45.740 --> 00:33:52.779
sustainability related themes and the way,
the other reason probably have a why I
419
00:33:52.900 --> 00:33:59.210
came across as an ev expert is
that we did IPO, our blank check
420
00:33:59.289 --> 00:34:07.409
company, Europeans Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corporation, in January and the symbols USG and
421
00:34:08.329 --> 00:34:15.719
through our European network we found this
company just outside of Stuttgart which makes these
422
00:34:16.119 --> 00:34:23.429
ultra fast battery buffort chargers, and
you know that that's something that we think
423
00:34:23.630 --> 00:34:31.190
is is going to be a big
part of the whole ECO ecosystem in terms
424
00:34:31.230 --> 00:34:38.139
of Eva's right, because if if
the forecast that Tesla loose it, etc.
425
00:34:39.219 --> 00:34:43.659
Giving you about the number of cars
that're going to sell, and you
426
00:34:43.860 --> 00:34:47.019
you pretty quickly like a five years
down the road, you be looking at
427
00:34:47.179 --> 00:34:52.340
thirty million cars annually that are being
sold. They all have to be charged
428
00:34:52.420 --> 00:34:55.010
and there's no way that even the
Biden plan, what you said, you
429
00:34:55.130 --> 00:35:00.090
know, getting compli thousand chargers in
the nation, is going to be able
430
00:35:00.130 --> 00:35:07.010
to to charge those cars that are
going to to be hitting the road.
431
00:35:07.159 --> 00:35:15.599
So I think you're going to see
massive investments in infrastructure and right now there's
432
00:35:15.639 --> 00:35:22.349
a big limitation in terms of the
great capacity. So most chargers are level
433
00:35:22.949 --> 00:35:27.989
one, two and three chargers.
They're all AC chargers. That put a
434
00:35:28.030 --> 00:35:32.110
lot of a lot of pressure on
the grid and the electric grid in the
435
00:35:32.150 --> 00:35:38.739
United States and elsewhere are just not
powerful enough to it. You know,
436
00:35:38.820 --> 00:35:43.179
it's so step or stable enough.
You know, the Rickety was the whole
437
00:35:43.219 --> 00:35:46.659
other conversation. But yeah, yeah, happen in Texas last year. So,
438
00:35:46.820 --> 00:35:52.489
as I mentioned, the top that
company is Ats Tech Energy and he
439
00:35:52.570 --> 00:35:55.250
doesn't. Yeah. So we hope
to close this deal. I mean,
440
00:35:55.449 --> 00:36:00.570
you know, it's this quite a
backup now at the SEC with with a
441
00:36:00.650 --> 00:36:07.280
lot of companies despecting etc. But
we did our final, hopeously final F
442
00:36:07.400 --> 00:36:15.440
for filing and we hope to be
closed and listed under a different symbol,
443
00:36:15.440 --> 00:36:22.829
ads e. by about middle of
December and and then I think it will
444
00:36:22.989 --> 00:36:27.909
get a lot more attention because then
it will be truly an easy, easy
445
00:36:28.070 --> 00:36:32.260
stock. Got It. What's interesting
because when you were talking about the Scandinavian
446
00:36:32.300 --> 00:36:36.179
countries, I was thinking, yeah, of course, you know, we
447
00:36:36.300 --> 00:36:38.739
all want to be like ninaving countries. You know, they're beautiful, the
448
00:36:38.780 --> 00:36:44.500
people are beautiful, everyone seems healthy
and happy hum and if I wanted to,
449
00:36:44.820 --> 00:36:46.210
if I wanted to invest there.
You know, is there an ETF?
450
00:36:46.329 --> 00:36:52.369
That sort of you know, covers
that area of the world. And,
451
00:36:52.929 --> 00:36:57.010
prankly, you know I'm the only
big hesitation I would have about investing
452
00:36:57.010 --> 00:37:00.530
in your spack is the fact that
it's a SPEC. Yeah, you know
453
00:37:00.650 --> 00:37:04.719
have why did you go that route? And do you think spacs have gotten
454
00:37:04.800 --> 00:37:08.599
a bad name? Well, yeah, I think spects have gotten a bad
455
00:37:08.639 --> 00:37:16.590
name because I don't think for I
think for a lot of valid reasons.
456
00:37:16.630 --> 00:37:21.309
I actually because you could look,
you know, if I would play devil's
457
00:37:21.309 --> 00:37:25.949
advocate, you could say, okay, well, Yo, specs of gotten
458
00:37:27.070 --> 00:37:32.139
very popular and a lot of people, maybe unprofessionals, have gotten involved into
459
00:37:32.179 --> 00:37:38.739
the game for for such in order
to make a quick back right and maybe
460
00:37:38.820 --> 00:37:44.769
have been a quote unquote, misleading
retail investor. So I can see that
461
00:37:44.929 --> 00:37:49.809
the SEC would be worried about that, because you basically list of blank check
462
00:37:49.889 --> 00:37:53.570
company and the blank check company does
not know yet what kind of business it's
463
00:37:53.610 --> 00:37:59.800
going to buy. So in a
way you could see it as circumventing,
464
00:38:00.239 --> 00:38:04.639
in my opinion at least, you
could see it as a way of circumventing
465
00:38:06.039 --> 00:38:13.309
SEC regulations that wanted to go through
and one does an ip over normal company,
466
00:38:13.389 --> 00:38:17.949
right, you have to sort of
have to sort of state, you
467
00:38:19.030 --> 00:38:22.230
know, the last ten years ordered
it, figures, etc. ETC,
468
00:38:22.469 --> 00:38:27.940
etc, and and and so so
I can see how the SEC has become
469
00:38:28.059 --> 00:38:31.980
tougher on specs and its clam down
on them, but then you know that
470
00:38:32.179 --> 00:38:38.139
there are exceptions like and I think, of course I'm biased, but when
471
00:38:38.260 --> 00:38:44.250
we saw an opportunity was that we
saw the valuation gap, the differences between
472
00:38:44.769 --> 00:38:52.570
Europe and the US. If you
look at two similar companies in almost any
473
00:38:52.650 --> 00:38:59.760
industry in the US and the Europe, Europe, European companies, we tend
474
00:38:59.800 --> 00:39:04.639
to play a sort of a fifty
two, eighty percent discount to the US
475
00:39:04.760 --> 00:39:08.000
beers, and I think the reason
for that is that you have a lot
476
00:39:08.079 --> 00:39:13.190
more there's much more of an equity
culture in the US. You got more
477
00:39:13.309 --> 00:39:17.230
retail money involved, you got more
broken etc. And then Europe is a
478
00:39:17.269 --> 00:39:21.909
little bit more backward in that way
that you know it did. The big
479
00:39:21.989 --> 00:39:24.820
pension funds in the retail investors don't
really look at equity markets that much.
480
00:39:24.940 --> 00:39:30.059
They invest in real estate, the
investing fixed income and just other asset classes.
481
00:39:30.699 --> 00:39:35.500
But that's that's where we thought was
the opportunity if we we find a
482
00:39:35.619 --> 00:39:43.969
European company in our in our backyard, yeah, where there's not a lot
483
00:39:44.010 --> 00:39:47.690
of competition to look for targets,
and we can list it in the US,
484
00:39:49.570 --> 00:39:52.880
then we number one. We can
buy it at an a high technology
485
00:39:52.960 --> 00:40:00.960
company and attractive price and listed on
an exchange with where there's very deep pockets
486
00:40:00.000 --> 00:40:06.760
of capital. And if you look
at a technology that scalable globally, you
487
00:40:07.079 --> 00:40:10.190
need access to the capital markets and
there's no, no capital market like like
488
00:40:10.670 --> 00:40:14.550
the US, you know, and
as that put new stopper sing. So
489
00:40:15.269 --> 00:40:17.829
we think we picked the best of
both worlds. We did a lot of
490
00:40:17.909 --> 00:40:22.940
due diligence on this company. It's
partly owned by boss, the German conglomerate,
491
00:40:23.699 --> 00:40:30.300
and it didn't fit within the core, within the course frateed won term
492
00:40:30.380 --> 00:40:36.130
strategy of boss. So we were
able to buy it an attracted multiple and,
493
00:40:37.809 --> 00:40:40.050
yeah, and and listed on that
that can scale it from there.
494
00:40:40.570 --> 00:40:45.489
Ten minutes, taking a fast charging. I wanted to talk about a stock
495
00:40:45.570 --> 00:40:49.650
that you like, which is wolfs
Bee, which is the old cree if
496
00:40:49.690 --> 00:40:53.760
I'm not mistaken, it's at a
rough couple of days along with the market.
497
00:40:53.840 --> 00:41:00.480
I guess stand about ten percent.
You talked earlier about maybe raising some
498
00:41:00.639 --> 00:41:04.309
cash or getting prepared for a little
more of alatility. Was this a name
499
00:41:04.389 --> 00:41:07.710
that you kind of lightened up on, or are you buying the dip and
500
00:41:07.829 --> 00:41:10.510
Wolf speed? Now? I will
speed out definitely that by the dip.
501
00:41:12.070 --> 00:41:15.590
I might compare. I compare this. It's a little bit further down the
502
00:41:16.269 --> 00:41:23.099
down the chain right of semiconductors.
But what what Wolfspeed is making is they
503
00:41:23.179 --> 00:41:30.260
make silicon car by IT semiconductors,
and Silicon car by is very important material
504
00:41:31.139 --> 00:41:42.369
because the likes of loose said,
the test lautc they have to buy silicon
505
00:41:42.449 --> 00:41:50.559
car by semiconductors because Silic car byte
basically enables a battery to charge faster,
506
00:41:52.199 --> 00:42:00.760
remain charged longer while not getting hot. That silicon car byte, in terms
507
00:42:00.800 --> 00:42:07.030
of battery technology, is is a
critical, critical material, and wolf speed
508
00:42:07.469 --> 00:42:14.110
as really, I won't say perfected. I don't think they are a hundred
509
00:42:14.110 --> 00:42:17.739
percent there yet, but they are
a couple of years ahead of the competition
510
00:42:17.860 --> 00:42:24.059
in terms of producing silicon car bytes
semiconductor. So so for for all these
511
00:42:24.099 --> 00:42:30.769
electric vehicle producers, also the traditional
guys like Ford and General Motors, everybody
512
00:42:30.809 --> 00:42:37.889
who's getting into the EV space.
They basically have only one go to manufacture
513
00:42:37.050 --> 00:42:40.690
to buy these semiconductors, and that's
wolf speed, you know, formerly cree.
514
00:42:42.449 --> 00:42:47.199
So they've tremendous the tremendous market share
in that area. The target market
515
00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:52.119
is growing thirty, two, fifty
percent a year and there have a lot
516
00:42:52.159 --> 00:42:58.360
of pricing power because they are the
only guys producing it. So we we
517
00:42:58.559 --> 00:43:02.190
love those kind of positions. It's
the same with a seml in the Netherlands
518
00:43:02.230 --> 00:43:09.230
in wait for technology. You need
any manufacture of semiconductors, whether you know
519
00:43:09.389 --> 00:43:16.980
Silicon Carbide or not. They have
to buy facilities and equipment from ASML,
520
00:43:17.539 --> 00:43:22.340
and ASML has a nine percent market
share. So they the best technology and
521
00:43:22.579 --> 00:43:27.809
sort of a virtue cycle, right. So the guys that are head get
522
00:43:27.929 --> 00:43:30.170
further and further ahead because they've more
cash low, they have more money to
523
00:43:30.250 --> 00:43:37.329
put into Rd. so so they're
their head start is only increasing, improving
524
00:43:37.489 --> 00:43:39.769
if they are well managed, and
I happen to like the management of Wolf
525
00:43:39.849 --> 00:43:45.440
speed very well, very much,
and asml's and other one we like very
526
00:43:45.480 --> 00:43:54.199
much. There's some smaller ones in
Europe that it would probably be hard to
527
00:43:54.519 --> 00:44:00.829
buy. That for retail vestors.
Some brokers can can buy in local exchanges,
528
00:44:00.909 --> 00:44:07.630
but your one we're extremely excited about, and this is probably take a
529
00:44:07.789 --> 00:44:12.500
pain out to to lie down all
the vowels, but it's in Germany.
530
00:44:12.539 --> 00:44:20.059
It's called P va Tepla, and
what they make is they again they're very
531
00:44:20.219 --> 00:44:27.809
early on in the kpex cycle.
So they make the machinery that crystallizes silicon
532
00:44:27.929 --> 00:44:35.289
carbide. So they are delivering to
the likes of Wolf speed right, so
533
00:44:35.489 --> 00:44:39.199
wolves be disapplied there. So you
again you go a little bit earlier in
534
00:44:39.360 --> 00:44:44.880
that in that supply chain, and
that to us is ideal. And this
535
00:44:45.079 --> 00:44:49.440
PVA TEPA again is one of the
two companies in the world that can make
536
00:44:49.559 --> 00:44:53.630
that sort of equipment and again they've
a tremendous head start against the competition.
537
00:44:54.429 --> 00:45:04.150
So I think, I think in
these volbels. Yeah, you have to
538
00:45:05.030 --> 00:45:09.019
believe in the technology investing. You
have to believe in the long term growth
539
00:45:09.300 --> 00:45:16.260
trends of the markets you invest in
and the company's market but it position and
540
00:45:16.380 --> 00:45:23.130
that they have the mote to maintain
that market position and with the company mentioned
541
00:45:23.289 --> 00:45:27.809
that we definitely have that. So
it gets these volbels, I think you
542
00:45:27.889 --> 00:45:31.849
know. Yeah, today people may
think that, you know, ten year
543
00:45:31.889 --> 00:45:36.239
rates will go to five, six
seven percent. Even if that were the
544
00:45:36.360 --> 00:45:39.280
case, the problem probably the stocks
would not perform very well for six months,
545
00:45:39.320 --> 00:45:44.559
but they will sort of know,
they will come over compensate for that
546
00:45:44.719 --> 00:45:49.320
and they'll keep growing in spite of
that rning. Just for those curious,
547
00:45:49.400 --> 00:45:57.150
PBA Keepla, the symbol is TPL
KF calm, Peter, Larry Kevin Frank.
548
00:45:58.110 --> 00:46:00.989
So No vowels in the symbol,
but a lot of Gals in the
549
00:46:00.989 --> 00:46:07.179
name the company and either. Appreciate
your time and insights here and I appreciate
550
00:46:07.420 --> 00:46:13.780
our audience for firsting tuned if we
made it this far. So you obviously
551
00:46:13.820 --> 00:46:19.969
you're investing in the infrastructure of the
electronic vehicle market, electric being mark,
552
00:46:19.969 --> 00:46:23.530
excuse me, the picks and shovels, as it were. So do you
553
00:46:23.650 --> 00:46:29.570
care, for lack of the better
word, whether it's Tesla or Ribban or
554
00:46:29.650 --> 00:46:35.480
loosen or Ford or GM or Volkswagon
or Mercedes or whoever else is out there?
555
00:46:35.679 --> 00:46:37.400
You know there's all the Chinese EV
makers we haven't even talked about.
556
00:46:37.880 --> 00:46:42.719
You know who emerges as the dominant
player or has that ship parady sell?
557
00:46:42.760 --> 00:46:46.230
There's something that's why some people are
so enamored of Tesla, because they think
558
00:46:46.269 --> 00:46:50.989
they have such a leadership place that, to your earlier point, they're going
559
00:46:50.989 --> 00:46:53.550
to get, you know, it's
going to continue to accrue to the positive
560
00:46:53.590 --> 00:46:59.309
for them. I think it's a
very good question actually. And Number One,
561
00:46:59.389 --> 00:47:04.179
I don't care. Number two,
I wouldn't invest in those companies because
562
00:47:04.179 --> 00:47:08.500
I think it's going to be very
commodetized. So so, for now Teslam
563
00:47:08.579 --> 00:47:14.619
may have a head start, but
you know, I'm pretty plugged into the
564
00:47:14.780 --> 00:47:21.849
likes of BMW, folks, Swag
and Audi, etc. The plowing a
565
00:47:21.929 --> 00:47:28.409
lot of resources into a battery technology, etc. And and I'm I'm I'm
566
00:47:28.530 --> 00:47:32.320
going to send sure that they'll all
catch up and it will become a commoditized
567
00:47:32.760 --> 00:47:38.280
product. The Chinese are onto it, you know, Fort General Motors,
568
00:47:38.559 --> 00:47:45.750
Chrysler, whatever, that they can
hire all the smart people and I think
569
00:47:45.789 --> 00:47:52.550
it would become again a commoditized product. I like the internal combustion engine vehicles
570
00:47:52.590 --> 00:47:57.269
are right now. So so would
you short Tesla if you could? Don't
571
00:47:57.269 --> 00:48:01.980
know if you can shorten the firm
now. Weekend Short but I think it's
572
00:48:02.059 --> 00:48:07.019
too early. I think they have
the head starts for now and may have
573
00:48:07.179 --> 00:48:12.179
it for another one or two years, but but it will. So you
574
00:48:12.260 --> 00:48:16.809
know the shorting games tricky and you
know one or two years is a long
575
00:48:16.929 --> 00:48:22.849
time right, long time Arizon to
be short. So I would and it's
576
00:48:22.969 --> 00:48:28.840
tough to exactly pinpoint when they lose
their competitive advantas edge, it will and
577
00:48:29.599 --> 00:48:34.119
invariably and doubtedly it will happen.
But you know, if they maintain it
578
00:48:34.199 --> 00:48:37.639
for another two years the stock may
still chapple from current levels. So I
579
00:48:37.679 --> 00:48:45.909
wouldn't take that bat and before we
rappless, I don't know if Steven had
580
00:48:45.909 --> 00:48:52.150
any other questions for you. You
talked earlier about the penetration of the EV
581
00:48:52.309 --> 00:48:55.420
market and this is obviously very anecdotal. was recently in a conversation with a
582
00:48:57.739 --> 00:48:59.900
group of people, I would call
some of them car guys, you know,
583
00:48:59.900 --> 00:49:04.139
they're really into Automo, with autos. Yeah, and one of them
584
00:49:04.139 --> 00:49:09.010
said something that kind of struck me, talk about how quickly the iphone became
585
00:49:10.530 --> 00:49:15.170
pain market share and when it first
came out in no Kia was huge and
586
00:49:15.530 --> 00:49:20.289
you know people are like, what
do I need this phone for? Are
587
00:49:20.409 --> 00:49:24.719
we gonna be surprised at how quickly
the internal combustion engine is we know it
588
00:49:25.119 --> 00:49:29.159
goes away. I mean, what's
the time frame for that if true?
589
00:49:30.039 --> 00:49:32.280
Yeah, I think again, very
good point. I think we will be
590
00:49:32.480 --> 00:49:37.630
surprised and we actually have some live
examples of what might happen. So so
591
00:49:38.590 --> 00:49:45.230
a real, real life example is
the country of Norway. Tiny country Scandinavia,
592
00:49:45.030 --> 00:49:52.699
but they will basically ban the sale
of internal combustion engine cars by two
593
00:49:52.699 --> 00:49:58.780
thousand and twenty five, so which
is quite soon. If not completely ban
594
00:49:58.900 --> 00:50:02.460
it, they'll text it at such
a level that it's pretty prohibitly expensive to
595
00:50:02.579 --> 00:50:07.050
buy one. And what you see
now already is that the general public,
596
00:50:08.449 --> 00:50:14.250
if you look at the the current
run rate, about forty two fifty percent
597
00:50:14.329 --> 00:50:20.530
of all cars sold are electric vehicles
in Norway. So you see that the
598
00:50:21.130 --> 00:50:27.559
public is not waiting until two thousand
and twenty five to buy electric vehicles and
599
00:50:27.719 --> 00:50:34.639
to stop buying ICEU vehicles. Right. It's now twenty twenty one and already
600
00:50:35.199 --> 00:50:39.030
you seeing that half the sales are
electric vehicles. So I think if,
601
00:50:39.269 --> 00:50:45.670
if, if you get some sort
of regulation that by twenty thirty or two
602
00:50:45.949 --> 00:50:51.019
and thirty five. In us,
you know, you you prohibably tax.
603
00:50:51.860 --> 00:50:55.860
I see you cars, you know, internal combustion fossil fuel cars. I
604
00:50:57.059 --> 00:51:01.699
think the general public will react a
lot more quickly and act more quickly way
605
00:51:01.860 --> 00:51:07.369
before those deadlines are set. And
that's what you see in Norway. That's
606
00:51:07.369 --> 00:51:12.809
what she suit saw with the IPHONES. There were no no regulatory you know,
607
00:51:12.929 --> 00:51:16.730
or tax issues, but just,
you know, convenience etc. I
608
00:51:16.809 --> 00:51:22.559
think you'll see the same with electric
people. So I think the VAMPA will
609
00:51:22.639 --> 00:51:28.079
be a lot more quick than them. Then then consensus is thinking now and
610
00:51:28.199 --> 00:51:34.750
then then you you can derive from
all those analyst projections. So I just
611
00:51:34.989 --> 00:51:38.469
have I think, I think you
know the the sort of consensus growth for
612
00:51:38.670 --> 00:51:46.699
EV sales is thirty percent annually between
twenty one and twenty five. If you
613
00:51:46.780 --> 00:51:51.179
ask me personally, I would think, you know, I would double that
614
00:51:51.219 --> 00:51:55.500
number, just sixty percent growth or
even higher. But that's just based on
615
00:51:55.619 --> 00:52:00.179
my personal observation. Starting to companies
etc. Right well, in you're putting
616
00:52:00.179 --> 00:52:04.409
your money where your mouth is,
at least your firms money, which is
617
00:52:04.449 --> 00:52:07.650
what it's yeah, at least at
least for these purposes. And there's a
618
00:52:07.650 --> 00:52:12.409
lot of other areas to write.
I mean we think the whole energy area
619
00:52:12.650 --> 00:52:19.239
into the utilities. Utilities are moving
away from fossil fuel to alternative energy sources.
620
00:52:20.119 --> 00:52:27.039
You know hydro, you know Sol
our wind, and you know we're
621
00:52:27.119 --> 00:52:30.909
definitely finding a lot of ideas there
too and just playing into that. But
622
00:52:31.110 --> 00:52:37.349
you know, that's maybe for another
time and all the discussion, but definitely
623
00:52:37.349 --> 00:52:45.860
the the whole theme of Going Carbon
Neutral by twenty thirty has an impact on
624
00:52:45.340 --> 00:52:51.900
many industries, and not just the
automotive and transportation industry. All right,
625
00:52:51.940 --> 00:52:55.219
well, yeah, yes, let's
have you back to talk about beyond the
626
00:52:55.340 --> 00:52:59.969
EV's and get an update on how
they're doing. We do have to leave
627
00:53:00.010 --> 00:53:04.130
it there. Our guests has been
Peter Tastelar, he's portfolio manager and founding
628
00:53:04.130 --> 00:53:08.289
part in the loo certain capital management
and the CEO of the Europeans Sustainable Growth
629
00:53:08.329 --> 00:53:13.599
Acquisition Corp, which is is back. Peter, thanks for being with us
630
00:53:13.599 --> 00:53:16.800
today. Okay, good and so
one conclusion is like, if you see
631
00:53:16.800 --> 00:53:23.280
any setbacks in a market, sell
anything except anything easy related at okay,
632
00:53:24.000 --> 00:53:27.909
thanks for having thanks, Peter,
about our good bye.
1
00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:05.519
The economy is very strong and inflationary
pressures are high, and it is therefore
2
00:00:05.519 --> 00:00:10.029
appropriate, in my view, to
consider wrapping up the taper of our asset
3
00:00:10.189 --> 00:00:15.070
purchases, which we actually announced that
the November meeting, perhaps a few months
4
00:00:15.349 --> 00:00:21.269
sooner. Fed Chair J Pale testifying
before Congress on Tuesday, adding to a
5
00:00:21.390 --> 00:00:27.780
risk off sentiment that began last week
with news about the new on the crome
6
00:00:28.059 --> 00:00:34.140
viroant of the covid nineteen, a
disease that is definitely put a chill on
7
00:00:34.299 --> 00:00:39.929
risk appetites on Wall Street. Welcome
to Alpha trader Aaron task and Stephen Alpher,
8
00:00:40.689 --> 00:00:44.369
joining us later on the show.
Peter Tstlar. He's the founding partner
9
00:00:44.409 --> 00:00:50.000
and portfolio manager of looser and capital
management and investment firm with roughly one and
10
00:00:50.039 --> 00:00:55.000
a half billion dollars of assets.
He's also the CEO of the European Sustainable
11
00:00:55.039 --> 00:00:59.399
Growth Acquisition Corp, which is a
spack, so we can talk to him
12
00:00:59.439 --> 00:01:04.629
about spacks and electric vehicles. But
first, Stephen. You know we always
13
00:01:04.629 --> 00:01:07.310
say you can't make too much of
any one day of trading, but it
14
00:01:07.469 --> 00:01:14.109
did seem like Friday of last week, when the news hit about this veryant
15
00:01:14.150 --> 00:01:17.030
out of South Africa. It definitely
sent a chill. There was a big
16
00:01:17.030 --> 00:01:22.700
down day. Obviously that after Thanksgiving
holiday shortened session, but that kind of
17
00:01:22.859 --> 00:01:27.379
nervousness is carrying over as we start
this week and head into December. Yeah,
18
00:01:27.420 --> 00:01:32.459
and and before you know, it's
my instinct to kind of Pooh Pooh
19
00:01:32.459 --> 00:01:34.890
any any this news about the varying
at all. But you know, I
20
00:01:34.969 --> 00:01:38.530
was probably on here and you know, February, two thousand and twenty Poop,
21
00:01:38.530 --> 00:01:41.049
Poo and covid. So you never
know. You know what's going to
22
00:01:41.129 --> 00:01:46.849
happen and, more importantly, you
never know what the government response or around
23
00:01:46.849 --> 00:01:49.680
the world. You didn't never know
what that what that's going to be.
24
00:01:49.159 --> 00:01:55.640
So you know, clearly was a
thin trading session Friday and everything got killed
25
00:01:55.680 --> 00:01:59.400
at. It seemed like everything was
maybe chilled out a little bit this morning
26
00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:02.349
and there was kind of a rough
overnight session. Some comments from the Maderna
27
00:02:02.549 --> 00:02:07.469
see that he didn't think that our
seem to be effective and it could be
28
00:02:07.590 --> 00:02:10.030
months before vaccine could come out for
this. They really said. Things tumbling,
29
00:02:10.150 --> 00:02:13.909
but by the time the open had
come around, your up to bounce
30
00:02:13.949 --> 00:02:17.460
back to nearly flattened US stocks were
were rolled down a little bit, and
31
00:02:17.500 --> 00:02:22.740
then then j pal hit us with
some really surprising, kind of hawkish comments,
32
00:02:23.259 --> 00:02:27.340
given given this new variant and giving
kind of his previous comments. Right,
33
00:02:27.460 --> 00:02:30.409
and I should know. We're talking
leave morning on Tuesday, and as
34
00:02:30.449 --> 00:02:34.330
we're speaking now, the dad,
the UMP and the NASDAC each down about
35
00:02:34.370 --> 00:02:39.090
one point three percent. Crude oils
down four percent. Probably a more interesting
36
00:02:39.129 --> 00:02:42.969
development there, because it was just
a couple weeks ago we were talking about
37
00:02:43.009 --> 00:02:46.680
hundred dollar oil as maybe in the
offing. Doesn't look that's happening anytime.
38
00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:54.639
See obviously direct reaction to fears of
more lockdowns and economic activity slowing down because
39
00:02:54.639 --> 00:02:59.710
of this, I'm crime variant,
and you meant in the Madonna CEO,
40
00:03:00.750 --> 00:03:04.310
Stephane Ban Cell, I believe,
is how a pronounce his name, predicted
41
00:03:04.349 --> 00:03:08.789
a, quote, material drop in
the existing shots efficacy and damped expectations that
42
00:03:08.830 --> 00:03:13.139
a new one could be ready any
time soon. That was an interview with
43
00:03:13.219 --> 00:03:17.939
the FT and then the cofounder of
Maderna on new Bar afion, told Bloomberg
44
00:03:17.979 --> 00:03:22.780
television, quote, this threat is
something we have not seen before the number
45
00:03:22.780 --> 00:03:25.539
of mutations on this virus are surprising. We have to take it for the
46
00:03:25.620 --> 00:03:30.770
serious threat that is pooses. Now
he went on to say we're you know,
47
00:03:30.849 --> 00:03:34.090
these guys are scientists. We need
to get the data together and see
48
00:03:34.889 --> 00:03:38.969
if the existing vaccine works or not, or do we have to create a
49
00:03:38.050 --> 00:03:42.400
new one. I believe is last
week the CEEO fires or said they thought
50
00:03:42.439 --> 00:03:49.680
a hundred days to get in a
new vaccine specific for the amacrom variant,
51
00:03:49.879 --> 00:03:52.719
which, in the greatest scheme of
things, is incredible that it would only
52
00:03:52.759 --> 00:03:54.479
take a hundred days, but that
seems like a long time, certainly for
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00:03:54.680 --> 00:04:00.430
financial markets, and I'm I guess
I'm kicking myself a little bit Steven,
54
00:04:00.469 --> 00:04:04.870
because I think you and I have
talked offline about covid and we mentioned a
55
00:04:04.909 --> 00:04:09.030
couple times in this podcast. But
I think maybe all of us have been
56
00:04:10.180 --> 00:04:13.219
sort of load into a false sense
of security that this was all behind us,
57
00:04:13.259 --> 00:04:16.379
and clearly it's not. No,
it's not. But again I'm shocked
58
00:04:16.459 --> 00:04:18.980
at Pale doing this. And this
is kind of like I don't know if,
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00:04:19.180 --> 00:04:23.939
now that he's got to nominate his
new nomination security feels like he can
60
00:04:24.019 --> 00:04:29.209
get hawkish. Wouldn't surprise me if, after after his testimony's ever, somebody
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00:04:29.290 --> 00:04:33.290
from the Biden Administration or Congressional leadership
reminds and Hey, you've only been renominated.
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00:04:33.810 --> 00:04:39.040
Your nomination is not yet past past
Congress yet, so be really ligous.
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00:04:39.600 --> 00:04:42.199
You know, if he kind of
what do they call that, amend
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00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:46.439
and revised his remarks at some future
date. Right, that you make.
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00:04:46.480 --> 00:04:50.759
You make a great point indirectly that
this is a political appointment. The Biden
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00:04:50.879 --> 00:04:58.629
is free administration is certainly concerned about
inflation and the impact it's having on consumer
67
00:04:58.670 --> 00:05:02.029
sentiment and thus voter sentiment. You
know, the recent polling data for the
68
00:05:02.110 --> 00:05:06.420
bid administration has not been good,
and that's an understatement. And you know
69
00:05:06.620 --> 00:05:11.180
Powell retiring the word transitory. I
think that was Faye to complete, but
70
00:05:12.540 --> 00:05:16.500
you're right, maybe now that he's
got renomination he thinks okay, my mandate
71
00:05:16.540 --> 00:05:20.300
now is really to focus on the
inflation side of the picture and not the
72
00:05:23.610 --> 00:05:26.129
the employment side of the picture,
which you've been talking a lot about,
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00:05:26.329 --> 00:05:29.970
and certainly Jenny Yellen's talking a lot
about that. She's also testifying today,
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00:05:30.089 --> 00:05:33.129
on Tuesday as we're speaking, oh
by the way, talking about the need
75
00:05:33.250 --> 00:05:39.199
for the Congress to address the dead
ceiling and they need some kind of stop
76
00:05:39.279 --> 00:05:43.720
gap funding bill to avoid another government
shutdown. So there's a lot of drama
77
00:05:43.800 --> 00:05:47.480
and swirl in the air. And
again our friend Hollie and misler always says,
78
00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:53.310
you know, it's price dictates sentiment. So the markets going down and
79
00:05:53.430 --> 00:05:56.790
it had been going down before Friday. You know, I remember we had
80
00:05:57.069 --> 00:06:00.110
Jim Muray on a week ago.
Thing he was short the SMP that,
81
00:06:00.310 --> 00:06:02.509
you know, you just thought things
have got a little bit ahead of themselves.
82
00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:05.779
Not Looking for a huge the climb, but the market was down,
83
00:06:06.420 --> 00:06:11.180
you know, a couple of percents
before Friday's big cell off. And the
84
00:06:11.220 --> 00:06:15.500
amicrome data keep, you know,
coming out and that's scare. So not
85
00:06:15.620 --> 00:06:18.170
to read too much into it.
But again, all the headlines seem negative
86
00:06:18.209 --> 00:06:21.529
when the market is moving down as
it has been. You know, let's
87
00:06:21.529 --> 00:06:26.290
say caught the last week or so. I've been saying for months that he
88
00:06:26.449 --> 00:06:30.889
fed rhetoric was was completely out of
comportment with what was going on in the
89
00:06:30.970 --> 00:06:36.560
economy, which was, which is
undergoing an inflationary boomlet and for them to
90
00:06:36.680 --> 00:06:41.160
be saying rate hikes are off the
table until late in two thousand and twenty
91
00:06:41.240 --> 00:06:44.360
three. You know, they were
saying that as recently as a summer was
92
00:06:44.399 --> 00:06:47.709
just ridiculous. So they have moved
up the time table. Most are expecting,
93
00:06:48.310 --> 00:06:50.589
you know, some sort of rate
hike in two thousand and twenty two
94
00:06:50.709 --> 00:06:54.670
one or two, which to me, with with seven six, seven percent
95
00:06:54.709 --> 00:06:59.990
inflation, seems crazy. But it
just couldn't. It can't continue in this
96
00:07:00.110 --> 00:07:03.220
fashion. The inflation rate, the
boom and finance the boom and asset markets.
97
00:07:03.699 --> 00:07:08.060
There has to be some sort of
response from the Fed. Yeah,
98
00:07:08.100 --> 00:07:11.139
it's just it's just interesting, you
know. That said, as it always
99
00:07:11.220 --> 00:07:14.019
does, you know, behind the
curve, and it took them a while
100
00:07:14.060 --> 00:07:15.250
to sort of come around to this
idea that. Yeah, and Flatian's not
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00:07:15.329 --> 00:07:20.449
transitory, which we've been talking about
it with various guests for six months now
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at least, and they're saying,
oh, there's an inflation problem just now,
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00:07:26.889 --> 00:07:32.160
as this variant of covid poses the
potential to slow down the global economy,
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00:07:32.199 --> 00:07:35.680
which just looked like it was getting
back on its legs, and the
105
00:07:35.879 --> 00:07:42.920
supply chain bottle next work we're starting
to resolve to be determined whether we go
106
00:07:43.079 --> 00:07:47.389
back into that kind of, you
know, bottleneck concern. But I'm going
107
00:07:47.430 --> 00:07:53.430
to take the under on how many
times the Fed raises rates next year just
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00:07:53.550 --> 00:07:57.269
as a general rule. That's that's
served me well the last decade plus and
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00:07:57.949 --> 00:08:00.899
you know, I think lacy hunt, you know, gave an even better
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00:08:00.980 --> 00:08:05.420
explanation as to why when he was
here a couple weeks ago and encourage folks
111
00:08:05.459 --> 00:08:09.060
to listen to that episode of the
haven't already. But it is interesting.
112
00:08:09.139 --> 00:08:11.620
You know, the other ten years
it's back below one point five percent.
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00:08:11.819 --> 00:08:16.769
was at one point four one percent
earlier this morning. To your earlier point
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00:08:16.850 --> 00:08:20.370
that things got a little bit better
as the morning war on. But crude
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00:08:20.449 --> 00:08:24.730
is that I mentioned earlier, you
know, still getting taken to the woodshed.
116
00:08:24.370 --> 00:08:28.279
It's down four percent now. West
Texas at sixty seven dollars and fourteen
117
00:08:28.360 --> 00:08:31.600
cents. And again it was just
a week ago with Jim Muryo it was
118
00:08:31.639 --> 00:08:35.960
in the high s and we talked
about is it going to a hundred?
119
00:08:37.000 --> 00:08:43.070
And so it's just amazing to me
how quickly the story changes with the narrative
120
00:08:43.110 --> 00:08:48.669
changes in the financial markets. If
it's state, if it's stays get down
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00:08:48.669 --> 00:08:50.990
there, it's going to ease some
pressure on headline inflation, right. So
122
00:08:52.110 --> 00:08:54.309
that might big things a little bit
easier for the Fed man not do anything
123
00:08:54.309 --> 00:08:58.700
into cornflation? I don't know,
but but it will certainly he that headline
124
00:08:58.700 --> 00:09:01.379
rate, which the last last we
look with six point two percent. That's
125
00:09:01.379 --> 00:09:05.899
going to ease if the price of
oil stays low. So that'll that'll be
126
00:09:05.019 --> 00:09:09.460
good for them. I would also
know Germany, she used to be home
127
00:09:09.580 --> 00:09:13.330
of of the of the rock solid
Deutsche Mark, no longer, is also
128
00:09:13.450 --> 00:09:18.450
experiencing six percent inflation and their ten
year yield is negative thirty four basis points
129
00:09:18.490 --> 00:09:24.080
right now. Yeah, that's a
pretty that's that's crazy, crazy, ridiculous.
130
00:09:24.159 --> 00:09:30.480
Negative yields, negative real yields for
for the investors in German bluns.
131
00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:33.679
Yeah, you remind me of two
things. That there was. I saw
132
00:09:33.720 --> 00:09:39.309
a headline on the Bloomberg earlier today
quote odds wager on negative rates return as
133
00:09:39.429 --> 00:09:45.710
fed hike bets are paired. So
now I believe that that came out before,
134
00:09:48.389 --> 00:09:52.940
before Palas testimony. Robets that federers
are policy reats may actually drop.
135
00:09:52.139 --> 00:09:58.740
Those zero are once again being made
as the onset of the omicron variant cast
136
00:09:58.820 --> 00:10:03.580
doubts on the economic outlook. And
that's those are Eurodollar contracts on the CME
137
00:10:03.700 --> 00:10:07.730
group are sponsor. Thank you,
with always. So it's just these are
138
00:10:07.889 --> 00:10:13.850
thinly traded for the most part securities. But interesting that that talk is once
139
00:10:13.889 --> 00:10:18.049
again those whispers around in the air
and the other then you run me up.
140
00:10:18.090 --> 00:10:20.649
Is that your favorite currency? This
was frank, has been rallying,
141
00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:26.120
not so much today but the last
few days, again as a flank to
142
00:10:26.159 --> 00:10:31.720
safety trade. And you know,
at least I'm like the Dotsch Bake.
143
00:10:31.720 --> 00:10:35.389
It's still serving. It's a storic
purpose. Yeah, as far as the
144
00:10:35.629 --> 00:10:39.629
negative rate bet, you know,
I speak of someone who is, who
145
00:10:39.669 --> 00:10:43.710
actually made that bet around the time
of the global financial crisis. I buying.
146
00:10:45.590 --> 00:10:50.980
I bought, you're a dollar calls
struck at a hundred. I didn't.
147
00:10:50.220 --> 00:10:54.059
I didn't take on nearly enough size
and I didn't hold onto the hill,
148
00:10:54.100 --> 00:10:58.539
hold onto the trade nearly long enough. So I've been there, done
149
00:10:58.580 --> 00:11:01.580
that. Regretted to this day that
I didn't pour every every pain I have
150
00:11:01.740 --> 00:11:07.450
into it. So it and you
know, to your point about taking the
151
00:11:07.490 --> 00:11:11.850
under unfed tightening, it may not
be the worst worst thing in the world
152
00:11:13.049 --> 00:11:18.759
to take. Take a few dollars
and make that bet. Yeah, interesting,
153
00:11:18.879 --> 00:11:22.600
and and look if your regrets are
you did enough for hold it long
154
00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:24.519
enough. That tells me you made
some money on the trade, which is
155
00:11:24.600 --> 00:11:28.879
better than losing your shirt on something. I think those are the ones I
156
00:11:28.000 --> 00:11:33.029
really regret. And would you be
better? So you're saying, would you
157
00:11:33.070 --> 00:11:35.470
be betting today that we have negative
rates through in the US, or is
158
00:11:35.590 --> 00:11:41.110
it is that? Obviously that's a
speculative investment or bet. I don't see
159
00:11:41.110 --> 00:11:43.870
any were all with tape making a
very small bet on something like that.
160
00:11:43.029 --> 00:11:46.269
To me it's not as much of
a no brainer as it was in two
161
00:11:46.309 --> 00:11:50.059
thousand and eight, two thousand and
nine. But you never know, if
162
00:11:50.179 --> 00:11:54.659
this cod covid, this covid variant, comes comes roaring back and it causes
163
00:11:54.820 --> 00:11:58.820
more shutdowns, the fat is going
to, you know, stop worrying about
164
00:11:58.820 --> 00:12:01.529
inflation and they're going to bail like
crazy, and that's going to include cut
165
00:12:01.570 --> 00:12:05.730
of cutting rates back to zero.
Yeah, exactly. And so before we
166
00:12:05.809 --> 00:12:09.730
move on to to our guests,
Peter and our discussion of specific stocks,
167
00:12:11.009 --> 00:12:15.169
you know I often hearkened back to
but our guests say on this program the
168
00:12:15.289 --> 00:12:18.840
some I'm going to point to myself
a couple weeks ago, I don't recall
169
00:12:18.919 --> 00:12:20.320
who we were talking to you,
but I said we were talking about how
170
00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:24.919
the consensus is we're going to have
like a big, you know, explosive
171
00:12:24.919 --> 00:12:26.120
movements the end of the year,
and I asked our guests, you know,
172
00:12:26.120 --> 00:12:31.350
are you worried about that? Because
it's consensus and there was, you
173
00:12:31.429 --> 00:12:37.110
know, generally bullish chatter in the
air. And you again, everyone everybody's
174
00:12:37.110 --> 00:12:41.309
looking for something usual. The opposite
happens. And you know the it was
175
00:12:41.389 --> 00:12:45.940
just a week ago the doubt was
nearly at thirty six thousand. Seemed like
176
00:12:46.019 --> 00:12:50.419
everything's wonderful and we've had a sharp
job. Only a couple percentage points.
177
00:12:52.500 --> 00:12:54.580
You know, again, I don't
see any evidence that there's going to be
178
00:12:54.700 --> 00:12:58.289
a crash of any kind or this
is the end of the bull market or
179
00:12:58.330 --> 00:13:01.690
anything of that nature. Because again, as you reference before, if,
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if things get too scary in the
financial markets, you know, Japal will
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take their foot off the break.
You know, he's just he's basically put
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his foot over the break. Now
he's hovering over it. He hasn't really
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tapped it yet. He's just talked
about tapping it and he may not do
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that. I mean, we'll see, obviously, what transpires. Does December
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obviously traditionally gets strong moved into the
end of the year. We shall see
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how that pans out. But again
I'm just always amazed at how quickly the
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narrative changes. More than ever in
the financial markets. It seems to me
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it's like the risk on, riskoff
thing. And then used to be this
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way. I now know I'm beating
the night, I'm dating myself. So
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moving on from that, I know
you had some thoughts about the other what
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seemed like the big news to start
the week twitter, Jack Dorsey stepping down
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as CEO. Parague Agrowall, I
believe, type announce his name, who
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had been the CTEO, is going
to become the CEO. Twitter stock at
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first jumped on that news and then
didn't really do much at the clothes as
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of yesterday. What are your thoughts
on on twitter here? Yeah, my
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thinking about twitter's changed over time,
but if you'd asked me a year ago,
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I would say twitter needs new leadership. Jack Dorsey's more more interested and
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and picking political fights and he is
and and running the company. That is
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that evolved over the last year where
I came to see Dorsey actually like almost
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like a prisoner at that company,
maybe the only adult in the room.
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You know, I think he was
kind of almost like forced out, like
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he's lost, he's kind of he
doesn't really have control over over kind of
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what twitter's doing anymore and it just, you know, he's in He's into
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Dick coin, he's into kind of
maybe some some I don't know, for
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lack of a better word, libertarian
leaning things, and he just I think
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he just wants to be done with
twitter and with all the little fights that
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twitter's picking with seemingly everybody nowadays.
The stock reaction since he left has,
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you know, has been really bad. I think it's down. It's down
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five percent today. After a big
rap, after a big pop yesterday that
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ended up in the red. Twitter
move very quickly this morning to a point.
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A new head of of think I
guess they called moderation, other people
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called head of censorship, and they
also introduced a new policy, very vague
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but basically, you know, kind
of against the posting of pictures or personal
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information of other folks. That could
be really extrapolated out to all kinds of
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things, all of which, seeming
seems to me, would be to hurt
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engagement with the platform, maybe opening
the door to, you know, some
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competitors. I saw somebody from mark
and Andrews and reason's shop, Asicstin Z,
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you know, kind of very excited
about the what they think are negative
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develops of twitter as popular maybe opening
the door to to something else coming in.
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That's right. So something that's coming
in meaning an acquirer or a competing
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product, a competing product developed along
the along the lines of like what they're
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calling web three, which is kind
of decentralized, which wouldn't be necessarily run
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by by is. That isn't that? Edit? I guess that's you know,
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but we're at it. No more
that read it certainly is no more
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like that. That's they've got.
Yeah, it was interesting. So,
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you know, twitter, on March
first of this year the stock was seventy
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seven dollars and sixty three cents.
As you mentioned it. It had a
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brief pop on the needs of Dorsey's
resignation, which a lot of folks were
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attributing to the idea of maybe him
stepping away opens the door for someone to
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come in and buy the company.
But there doesn't seem to be a natural
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bidder. By the way, facebook
is facing even more anti trust concerns overseas.
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England today telling him they have to
sell leave a Jiffy is the name
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of their gift platform that they bought. So you know twitters now you know
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under forty five dollar a season,
under forty four dollars, forty three and
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changes. We're talking currently. It's
you know, I'm a active, avid
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user of twitter right I'm I would
have addicted to it more than I like
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it. But the problem with twitter
always has been is that it's it's too
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small. You know, in the
world of social networks, other than journalists,
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politicians and celebrities, there really isn't
a natural place for most, I'll
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call them civilians, and many people
come to twitter and they can't figure it
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out and they leave. And if
you think about since twitter's founding, you
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know, snapchat has come along,
had its movement, instagrams had its moment,
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tick tocks having its moment. Now
they just they've never captured the youth
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market, which you know is what
you need on an ad driven world,
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certainly, and you know there's been
a lot of frustration with how the company's
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been run. When you think about
how Donald Trump, as president, used
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twitter as his main form of communication. How many times did we see people
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who own the stock or let this
stock say, like, how can they
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not monetize this thing better? Right? They just haven't been able to figure
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that out, you know, for
for worse for shareholders for sure. So
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I don't know what happened. What
becomes of twitter and who might acquire it
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other than, you know, a
private equity firm, but they're going to
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wait for much of the lower prices
before they do that. The fact that
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it's the CTEO, I guess,
became CEO. Now I don't know much
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about this guy might have. He's
obviously way more brilliants, got skills beyond
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anything I can even imagine. But
if you're talking about bringing in somebody who's
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going to lead a this great monetization
push of twitter, is is is this
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the fellow who's going to do it? All right, so we'll be break
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back when take a quick break and
we'll be back with our guests. Peter
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Taslar. He is founding partner and
portfolio manager of looser and capital management,
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which has roughly one and a half
billion dollars of assets. You're listening to
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Alpha trader. Welcome back to Alpha
trader are in task and and Steven Alpher.
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We are joined now by our guests, Peter Teslar. He's founding partner
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and portfolio manager of Lucer and capital
management, which is roughly wouldn't have billion
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dollars of assets. He's also the
CEO of the European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp,
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which, yes, is a spack, and recently announced plans to acquire
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ats tech energy, a German based
company that manufactures ev charging stations that can
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charge batteries in minutes without putting stream
on a city's electrical grids. Sounds maybe
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too good to be true, but
Peter, it's great to have you here.
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Welcome to Alpha trader. Thanks for
having me and yeah, that was
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a great introvection. That's it's good
I have learned to read, so you
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know, before we get into the
the nuts and bolts of your investments,
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Steve and I just talked at linked
about some of the big picture concerns that
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seemingly have propped up and just the
last week the Yamacrom variant of Covid obviously,
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and then on Tuesday morning j Palell
coming out with much more hawkish testimony
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than I think people expected. Does
any of that change how you're investing as
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we speak here today? Tuesday mid
day. Well, yeah, it's okay.
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The two elements right that are on
everybody's mind on a daily, it's
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not hourly, basis. Right now
it's the the new coverage variant on the
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crown, and then it's the fact
of whether inflation it's transitory or whether we
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are entering a period of sustainably higher
inflation levels. And everybody has their personal
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opinions about it. I think about
the new covid variant. I don't think
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we have enough information really to to
really make any finite decisions about whether this
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is more lethal or more transmissible or
whether the vaccines are working or not.
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I think you know the MODERNA CEO
came out with with the statement this morning
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that the vaccines may not work as
well for the new variant as for previous
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ones. They sometimes also wonder how
how independent the view is, right of
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commercial organization like Maderna. I think. I think it's to their advantage if
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they would have to actually come up
with a new booster Oka and new cocktail.
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Right. Think it's really in his
interest, or the share, their
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share all these interest that the existing
boosters are working against the new variants.
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But so so, I think I'm
sure they have the AI of the scientists
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will put proper checks and balances in
place, but I think all the statements
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that you're reading now or just too
early to draw conclusions from. Okay,
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so short, so, Siye,
so short story. Have you sold anything
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or taking any defensive steps since last
week when the report to the South African
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variant first started really getting a lot
of attention? Yes, yeah, so
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what we have done is, you
know, we've not really we've not really
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taken, if, a different stance
in terms of, okay, we want
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to be more or less exposed to
real economy, stocks or value or growth
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to certain factor. But what we've
done across the board is basically we reduced
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the gross exposure of the book a
little bit, expecting more volatility into year
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end. And Yeah, I think, I think. I think the lower
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gross exposure is appropriate, an appropriate
adjustment to make to its that and and
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you know, we don't have any
firm views as to whether this is going
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to have a lasting impact on of
course, the covid had a lasting impact
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on the economic growth, but where
whether this is going to be so much
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worse than any previous variants. Like
the debate and the Delta variant. So
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in terms of you know, pals
comments today, I think he has access
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the more data than we have.
But you know, our fundamental view is
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that, yes, you know,
there's spent of demand in the economy right
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now. On the other hand,
you see a lot of capacity being added
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in first week every vertical, every
industry worldwide. And then I think global
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GDP right now is not really that
much higher and pre covert of not nothing
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else, it's at the same level. So a lot of the lot of
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the inflation are our view, is
coming from bottle necking. So it's really
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shortage of shipping, bottle necking in
the ports and you know, the startup
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of facilities not going very smoothly.
Like them, and when the factories being
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shut down for a year, you
know, you invariably face some hiccups restarting
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those operations again. So we think
you could very well look at a situation
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about, you know, maybe twelve
eighteen months from now, and it may
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take longer than than that even but
where you you look at very low inflation
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rates again because no, number one, the comps will be very easy right
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you looking at at very high prices
right now. So maybe a year from
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now prices will not be that high
if that extra capacity and supply it's coming
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on stream. With the bottle necking, it's sort of easy and the pent
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of demand is also sort of easying. So we think all the all the
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lot of the underlying factors that sort
of were the cause for low inflation figures
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are still in place. And and
the and the and the big factor,
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we believe is is really technology.
Sort of people can comparison shop, you
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know, companies become more efficient,
more higher automation levels. So we think
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that that's really those driving factors are
still in place. So we think long
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term. Yes, short term,
I can see why my power wants to
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temper pretty primarily inflation expect expectations is
it can spin out of control right it's
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people think inflation is going to be
higher than let's become sort of a self
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fulfilling prophecy. So I can see
why he said what he said today.
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But again, I longer term I
wouldn't pay too much, you know,
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credence to it. You are musk, who has a little bit to do
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with Ev's tweeted out yesterday quote.
Oh Man, this year has been such
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a supply chain nightmare. And it's
not over. I'll provide an updated product
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robot on next earnings call and quote. So to the extent that there are
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shortages, that there are supply chain
issues, maybe that's a good thing for
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the companies it actually supply, the
nuts and bolts that drive it, that
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are driving vs because if, if, if, there are shortages, seems
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to me they have some pricing power. Yeah, so what we, as
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loose certain capital of done is really
we looked at that and the supply chain
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issues are real and and you know, in spite of our sort of Benine
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view on an eighteen to twenty four
months view basis, I think on the
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next twelf to eighteen months they will
continue to be real. And so what
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we have what we have done?
We basically went back and study to supply
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chain, particularly and EV's and all
other a lot of other technology supply chains.
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And where you see particularly shortage is
in the semiconductors. So well,
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we have invested quite aggressively is in
the in the catax place, right,
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so the the companies that make the
machinery to make semi conductors. And that's
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that's sort of you know, as
you can tell from my accent, probably
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I'm European. I was born and
raised in the Netherlands. That also happens
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to be a technology have in terms
of semiconductor technology. She have some world,
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global world leaders like ASML which as
the world's, you know, most
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sophisticated way for technology. You have
be semiconductors, which is basically making,
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00:28:27.559 --> 00:28:34.319
you know, more manufacturing equipment for
the back end for the semi conductor manufacturers.
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00:28:34.799 --> 00:28:44.549
So so all guys like Intel,
Taiwan semiconductors, their their clients.
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They need to expand capacity because they
are supplying, in turn, to the
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ones like, you know, Samsung
and apple and producers of of consumer electronics.
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So but we decided to invest right
at the beginning of supply chain and
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we talked to these guys like asmlb
semiconductors, etc. On a weekly basis,
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and on a weekly basis they see
their order back lock still increasing.
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You see players like Intel, Taimewan
semi sort of panicking. They need to
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00:29:23.599 --> 00:29:30.359
expand capacity and it's expanded yesterday.
So they keep ordering and they're willing to
369
00:29:30.640 --> 00:29:33.960
pay higher prices because it's like,
okay, whoever base the most will get
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get get the most products the most
quickly. So there's a couple questions maybe
371
00:29:42.029 --> 00:29:47.069
more clarification for me on those points. So, first of all, you
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focus on Europe, you only invest
in European stocks. We do only invest
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in European stocks, but I think
it's a little bit of a misconception that,
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you know, if you only invest
in European stocks, you just invest
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in Europe. Actually, as a
matter of fact, that complete like asml
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and a company like be semiconductor,
the ones that just mentioned. They happened
377
00:30:15.410 --> 00:30:19.609
to be listed in the Netherlands,
but their revenues are maybe, maybe,
378
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maybe twenty five percent Europe and the
rest is Asia. Right, they're globe
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there, global players, for sure. Yeah, they go their global players.
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So you know, we we we
use that portal of investing in Europe
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just to maximize performance and we like
Europe as a portal because it's not as
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well covered by cell side and by
side analysts as many of the as the
383
00:30:45.630 --> 00:30:48.910
US stocks. For sure we have
more, we have more of an edge
384
00:30:49.059 --> 00:30:55.099
in European stocks than any new US
stocks. But look, if we if
385
00:30:55.140 --> 00:30:57.539
we like, if we like the
growth profile, growth picture in the US
386
00:30:57.660 --> 00:31:03.059
better than Europe, then we would
pick some stocks in Europe that have that
387
00:31:03.140 --> 00:31:07.609
are very heavily exposed to the United
States and similarly to Asia. We like
388
00:31:07.769 --> 00:31:12.089
that, or emerging markets. We
would like domestic you're if you think you
389
00:31:12.170 --> 00:31:17.890
know, Germany's and a coffee mode
and we focus on that. So we
390
00:31:18.089 --> 00:31:23.079
definitely you have a very global view
of the world, global investments to and
391
00:31:23.599 --> 00:31:29.960
again I we we use Europe as
a portal and and that's mostly because I
392
00:31:30.079 --> 00:31:33.829
was born and race there and my
business partner was born and raised there and
393
00:31:33.549 --> 00:31:37.710
we just knowed very well got it
to that. That certainly makes sense and
394
00:31:37.990 --> 00:31:44.829
you've you've answered my other misconception,
which was that you focus exclusively on the
395
00:31:45.589 --> 00:31:51.819
EV segment. You were you were
pitched to us from a PR firm a
396
00:31:51.900 --> 00:31:53.500
couple weeks ago. It seems like
a long time ago, but you know,
397
00:31:53.579 --> 00:31:57.660
ev stocks were you know, had
a bit of a mini craze in
398
00:31:57.740 --> 00:32:07.009
mid November after President Biden's infrastructure spending
bill was signed into law, which allocated
399
00:32:07.049 --> 00:32:13.210
seven have billion dollars to the development
of five hundred thousand public ev charging stations.
400
00:32:13.289 --> 00:32:15.480
We also had the Ribby and Ipoh
which people were very excited about for
401
00:32:15.519 --> 00:32:20.599
a hot minute. It doesn't sound
like you would be invested in Ribbyan.
402
00:32:21.720 --> 00:32:30.230
But you know what was was that
a momentary bit of a rational bisubrians from
403
00:32:30.269 --> 00:32:32.750
the investing public, or or was
a legitimate reason for people to get excited
404
00:32:32.789 --> 00:32:36.589
over the sector? Here? I
should also know, for it's had a
405
00:32:36.670 --> 00:32:39.589
big jump GM you know, it's
had a big rally, in part on
406
00:32:39.710 --> 00:32:45.500
the you know, the expectation and
evidence that they are becoming more focused on
407
00:32:45.579 --> 00:32:50.779
the evs. Yeah, I think
it's interesting. Right. So, because
408
00:32:50.940 --> 00:32:55.940
coming from Europe, especially northern Europe, I think the whole concept of sustainability,
409
00:32:57.819 --> 00:33:02.210
carbon neutrality, etc. Is Much
more ingrained in the in the culture
410
00:33:02.329 --> 00:33:08.009
and into people's daily lives and also
into the corporate cultures. So maybe that's
411
00:33:08.049 --> 00:33:13.200
why I was pitched to you as
a as like an easy sustainability grew or
412
00:33:13.279 --> 00:33:16.640
something like that. If you I
have to say if you look at if
413
00:33:16.640 --> 00:33:21.680
you look at Scandinavia, if you
look at countries like Sweden, Norway,
414
00:33:21.799 --> 00:33:25.559
Denmark, Finland, etc. There
is a lot of innovation going on in
415
00:33:25.680 --> 00:33:32.589
terms of sustainability, carbon, carbon
capture technology, electric veh called, battery
416
00:33:32.670 --> 00:33:37.309
technology etc. So it is it
is a very good area to be exposed
417
00:33:37.349 --> 00:33:45.579
to if you if you want to
invest in ev related ev related themes and
418
00:33:45.740 --> 00:33:52.779
sustainability related themes and the way,
the other reason probably have a why I
419
00:33:52.900 --> 00:33:59.210
came across as an ev expert is
that we did IPO, our blank check
420
00:33:59.289 --> 00:34:07.409
company, Europeans Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corporation, in January and the symbols USG and
421
00:34:08.329 --> 00:34:15.719
through our European network we found this
company just outside of Stuttgart which makes these
422
00:34:16.119 --> 00:34:23.429
ultra fast battery buffort chargers, and
you know that that's something that we think
423
00:34:23.630 --> 00:34:31.190
is is going to be a big
part of the whole ECO ecosystem in terms
424
00:34:31.230 --> 00:34:38.139
of Eva's right, because if if
the forecast that Tesla loose it, etc.
425
00:34:39.219 --> 00:34:43.659
Giving you about the number of cars
that're going to sell, and you
426
00:34:43.860 --> 00:34:47.019
you pretty quickly like a five years
down the road, you be looking at
427
00:34:47.179 --> 00:34:52.340
thirty million cars annually that are being
sold. They all have to be charged
428
00:34:52.420 --> 00:34:55.010
and there's no way that even the
Biden plan, what you said, you
429
00:34:55.130 --> 00:35:00.090
know, getting compli thousand chargers in
the nation, is going to be able
430
00:35:00.130 --> 00:35:07.010
to to charge those cars that are
going to to be hitting the road.
431
00:35:07.159 --> 00:35:15.599
So I think you're going to see
massive investments in infrastructure and right now there's
432
00:35:15.639 --> 00:35:22.349
a big limitation in terms of the
great capacity. So most chargers are level
433
00:35:22.949 --> 00:35:27.989
one, two and three chargers.
They're all AC chargers. That put a
434
00:35:28.030 --> 00:35:32.110
lot of a lot of pressure on
the grid and the electric grid in the
435
00:35:32.150 --> 00:35:38.739
United States and elsewhere are just not
powerful enough to it. You know,
436
00:35:38.820 --> 00:35:43.179
it's so step or stable enough.
You know, the Rickety was the whole
437
00:35:43.219 --> 00:35:46.659
other conversation. But yeah, yeah, happen in Texas last year. So,
438
00:35:46.820 --> 00:35:52.489
as I mentioned, the top that
company is Ats Tech Energy and he
439
00:35:52.570 --> 00:35:55.250
doesn't. Yeah. So we hope
to close this deal. I mean,
440
00:35:55.449 --> 00:36:00.570
you know, it's this quite a
backup now at the SEC with with a
441
00:36:00.650 --> 00:36:07.280
lot of companies despecting etc. But
we did our final, hopeously final F
442
00:36:07.400 --> 00:36:15.440
for filing and we hope to be
closed and listed under a different symbol,
443
00:36:15.440 --> 00:36:22.829
ads e. by about middle of
December and and then I think it will
444
00:36:22.989 --> 00:36:27.909
get a lot more attention because then
it will be truly an easy, easy
445
00:36:28.070 --> 00:36:32.260
stock. Got It. What's interesting
because when you were talking about the Scandinavian
446
00:36:32.300 --> 00:36:36.179
countries, I was thinking, yeah, of course, you know, we
447
00:36:36.300 --> 00:36:38.739
all want to be like ninaving countries. You know, they're beautiful, the
448
00:36:38.780 --> 00:36:44.500
people are beautiful, everyone seems healthy
and happy hum and if I wanted to,
449
00:36:44.820 --> 00:36:46.210
if I wanted to invest there.
You know, is there an ETF?
450
00:36:46.329 --> 00:36:52.369
That sort of you know, covers
that area of the world. And,
451
00:36:52.929 --> 00:36:57.010
prankly, you know I'm the only
big hesitation I would have about investing
452
00:36:57.010 --> 00:37:00.530
in your spack is the fact that
it's a SPEC. Yeah, you know
453
00:37:00.650 --> 00:37:04.719
have why did you go that route? And do you think spacs have gotten
454
00:37:04.800 --> 00:37:08.599
a bad name? Well, yeah, I think spects have gotten a bad
455
00:37:08.639 --> 00:37:16.590
name because I don't think for I
think for a lot of valid reasons.
456
00:37:16.630 --> 00:37:21.309
I actually because you could look,
you know, if I would play devil's
457
00:37:21.309 --> 00:37:25.949
advocate, you could say, okay, well, Yo, specs of gotten
458
00:37:27.070 --> 00:37:32.139
very popular and a lot of people, maybe unprofessionals, have gotten involved into
459
00:37:32.179 --> 00:37:38.739
the game for for such in order
to make a quick back right and maybe
460
00:37:38.820 --> 00:37:44.769
have been a quote unquote, misleading
retail investor. So I can see that
461
00:37:44.929 --> 00:37:49.809
the SEC would be worried about that, because you basically list of blank check
462
00:37:49.889 --> 00:37:53.570
company and the blank check company does
not know yet what kind of business it's
463
00:37:53.610 --> 00:37:59.800
going to buy. So in a
way you could see it as circumventing,
464
00:38:00.239 --> 00:38:04.639
in my opinion at least, you
could see it as a way of circumventing
465
00:38:06.039 --> 00:38:13.309
SEC regulations that wanted to go through
and one does an ip over normal company,
466
00:38:13.389 --> 00:38:17.949
right, you have to sort of
have to sort of state, you
467
00:38:19.030 --> 00:38:22.230
know, the last ten years ordered
it, figures, etc. ETC,
468
00:38:22.469 --> 00:38:27.940
etc, and and and so so
I can see how the SEC has become
469
00:38:28.059 --> 00:38:31.980
tougher on specs and its clam down
on them, but then you know that
470
00:38:32.179 --> 00:38:38.139
there are exceptions like and I think, of course I'm biased, but when
471
00:38:38.260 --> 00:38:44.250
we saw an opportunity was that we
saw the valuation gap, the differences between
472
00:38:44.769 --> 00:38:52.570
Europe and the US. If you
look at two similar companies in almost any
473
00:38:52.650 --> 00:38:59.760
industry in the US and the Europe, Europe, European companies, we tend
474
00:38:59.800 --> 00:39:04.639
to play a sort of a fifty
two, eighty percent discount to the US
475
00:39:04.760 --> 00:39:08.000
beers, and I think the reason
for that is that you have a lot
476
00:39:08.079 --> 00:39:13.190
more there's much more of an equity
culture in the US. You got more
477
00:39:13.309 --> 00:39:17.230
retail money involved, you got more
broken etc. And then Europe is a
478
00:39:17.269 --> 00:39:21.909
little bit more backward in that way
that you know it did. The big
479
00:39:21.989 --> 00:39:24.820
pension funds in the retail investors don't
really look at equity markets that much.
480
00:39:24.940 --> 00:39:30.059
They invest in real estate, the
investing fixed income and just other asset classes.
481
00:39:30.699 --> 00:39:35.500
But that's that's where we thought was
the opportunity if we we find a
482
00:39:35.619 --> 00:39:43.969
European company in our in our backyard, yeah, where there's not a lot
483
00:39:44.010 --> 00:39:47.690
of competition to look for targets,
and we can list it in the US,
484
00:39:49.570 --> 00:39:52.880
then we number one. We can
buy it at an a high technology
485
00:39:52.960 --> 00:40:00.960
company and attractive price and listed on
an exchange with where there's very deep pockets
486
00:40:00.000 --> 00:40:06.760
of capital. And if you look
at a technology that scalable globally, you
487
00:40:07.079 --> 00:40:10.190
need access to the capital markets and
there's no, no capital market like like
488
00:40:10.670 --> 00:40:14.550
the US, you know, and
as that put new stopper sing. So
489
00:40:15.269 --> 00:40:17.829
we think we picked the best of
both worlds. We did a lot of
490
00:40:17.909 --> 00:40:22.940
due diligence on this company. It's
partly owned by boss, the German conglomerate,
491
00:40:23.699 --> 00:40:30.300
and it didn't fit within the core, within the course frateed won term
492
00:40:30.380 --> 00:40:36.130
strategy of boss. So we were
able to buy it an attracted multiple and,
493
00:40:37.809 --> 00:40:40.050
yeah, and and listed on that
that can scale it from there.
494
00:40:40.570 --> 00:40:45.489
Ten minutes, taking a fast charging. I wanted to talk about a stock
495
00:40:45.570 --> 00:40:49.650
that you like, which is wolfs
Bee, which is the old cree if
496
00:40:49.690 --> 00:40:53.760
I'm not mistaken, it's at a
rough couple of days along with the market.
497
00:40:53.840 --> 00:41:00.480
I guess stand about ten percent.
You talked earlier about maybe raising some
498
00:41:00.639 --> 00:41:04.309
cash or getting prepared for a little
more of alatility. Was this a name
499
00:41:04.389 --> 00:41:07.710
that you kind of lightened up on, or are you buying the dip and
500
00:41:07.829 --> 00:41:10.510
Wolf speed? Now? I will
speed out definitely that by the dip.
501
00:41:12.070 --> 00:41:15.590
I might compare. I compare this. It's a little bit further down the
502
00:41:16.269 --> 00:41:23.099
down the chain right of semiconductors.
But what what Wolfspeed is making is they
503
00:41:23.179 --> 00:41:30.260
make silicon car by IT semiconductors,
and Silicon car by is very important material
504
00:41:31.139 --> 00:41:42.369
because the likes of loose said,
the test lautc they have to buy silicon
505
00:41:42.449 --> 00:41:50.559
car by semiconductors because Silic car byte
basically enables a battery to charge faster,
506
00:41:52.199 --> 00:42:00.760
remain charged longer while not getting hot. That silicon car byte, in terms
507
00:42:00.800 --> 00:42:07.030
of battery technology, is is a
critical, critical material, and wolf speed
508
00:42:07.469 --> 00:42:14.110
as really, I won't say perfected. I don't think they are a hundred
509
00:42:14.110 --> 00:42:17.739
percent there yet, but they are
a couple of years ahead of the competition
510
00:42:17.860 --> 00:42:24.059
in terms of producing silicon car bytes
semiconductor. So so for for all these
511
00:42:24.099 --> 00:42:30.769
electric vehicle producers, also the traditional
guys like Ford and General Motors, everybody
512
00:42:30.809 --> 00:42:37.889
who's getting into the EV space.
They basically have only one go to manufacture
513
00:42:37.050 --> 00:42:40.690
to buy these semiconductors, and that's
wolf speed, you know, formerly cree.
514
00:42:42.449 --> 00:42:47.199
So they've tremendous the tremendous market share
in that area. The target market
515
00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:52.119
is growing thirty, two, fifty
percent a year and there have a lot
516
00:42:52.159 --> 00:42:58.360
of pricing power because they are the
only guys producing it. So we we
517
00:42:58.559 --> 00:43:02.190
love those kind of positions. It's
the same with a seml in the Netherlands
518
00:43:02.230 --> 00:43:09.230
in wait for technology. You need
any manufacture of semiconductors, whether you know
519
00:43:09.389 --> 00:43:16.980
Silicon Carbide or not. They have
to buy facilities and equipment from ASML,
520
00:43:17.539 --> 00:43:22.340
and ASML has a nine percent market
share. So they the best technology and
521
00:43:22.579 --> 00:43:27.809
sort of a virtue cycle, right. So the guys that are head get
522
00:43:27.929 --> 00:43:30.170
further and further ahead because they've more
cash low, they have more money to
523
00:43:30.250 --> 00:43:37.329
put into Rd. so so they're
their head start is only increasing, improving
524
00:43:37.489 --> 00:43:39.769
if they are well managed, and
I happen to like the management of Wolf
525
00:43:39.849 --> 00:43:45.440
speed very well, very much,
and asml's and other one we like very
526
00:43:45.480 --> 00:43:54.199
much. There's some smaller ones in
Europe that it would probably be hard to
527
00:43:54.519 --> 00:44:00.829
buy. That for retail vestors.
Some brokers can can buy in local exchanges,
528
00:44:00.909 --> 00:44:07.630
but your one we're extremely excited about, and this is probably take a
529
00:44:07.789 --> 00:44:12.500
pain out to to lie down all
the vowels, but it's in Germany.
530
00:44:12.539 --> 00:44:20.059
It's called P va Tepla, and
what they make is they again they're very
531
00:44:20.219 --> 00:44:27.809
early on in the kpex cycle.
So they make the machinery that crystallizes silicon
532
00:44:27.929 --> 00:44:35.289
carbide. So they are delivering to
the likes of Wolf speed right, so
533
00:44:35.489 --> 00:44:39.199
wolves be disapplied there. So you
again you go a little bit earlier in
534
00:44:39.360 --> 00:44:44.880
that in that supply chain, and
that to us is ideal. And this
535
00:44:45.079 --> 00:44:49.440
PVA TEPA again is one of the
two companies in the world that can make
536
00:44:49.559 --> 00:44:53.630
that sort of equipment and again they've
a tremendous head start against the competition.
537
00:44:54.429 --> 00:45:04.150
So I think, I think in
these volbels. Yeah, you have to
538
00:45:05.030 --> 00:45:09.019
believe in the technology investing. You
have to believe in the long term growth
539
00:45:09.300 --> 00:45:16.260
trends of the markets you invest in
and the company's market but it position and
540
00:45:16.380 --> 00:45:23.130
that they have the mote to maintain
that market position and with the company mentioned
541
00:45:23.289 --> 00:45:27.809
that we definitely have that. So
it gets these volbels, I think you
542
00:45:27.889 --> 00:45:31.849
know. Yeah, today people may
think that, you know, ten year
543
00:45:31.889 --> 00:45:36.239
rates will go to five, six
seven percent. Even if that were the
544
00:45:36.360 --> 00:45:39.280
case, the problem probably the stocks
would not perform very well for six months,
545
00:45:39.320 --> 00:45:44.559
but they will sort of know,
they will come over compensate for that
546
00:45:44.719 --> 00:45:49.320
and they'll keep growing in spite of
that rning. Just for those curious,
547
00:45:49.400 --> 00:45:57.150
PBA Keepla, the symbol is TPL
KF calm, Peter, Larry Kevin Frank.
548
00:45:58.110 --> 00:46:00.989
So No vowels in the symbol,
but a lot of Gals in the
549
00:46:00.989 --> 00:46:07.179
name the company and either. Appreciate
your time and insights here and I appreciate
550
00:46:07.420 --> 00:46:13.780
our audience for firsting tuned if we
made it this far. So you obviously
551
00:46:13.820 --> 00:46:19.969
you're investing in the infrastructure of the
electronic vehicle market, electric being mark,
552
00:46:19.969 --> 00:46:23.530
excuse me, the picks and shovels, as it were. So do you
553
00:46:23.650 --> 00:46:29.570
care, for lack of the better
word, whether it's Tesla or Ribban or
554
00:46:29.650 --> 00:46:35.480
loosen or Ford or GM or Volkswagon
or Mercedes or whoever else is out there?
555
00:46:35.679 --> 00:46:37.400
You know there's all the Chinese EV
makers we haven't even talked about.
556
00:46:37.880 --> 00:46:42.719
You know who emerges as the dominant
player or has that ship parady sell?
557
00:46:42.760 --> 00:46:46.230
There's something that's why some people are
so enamored of Tesla, because they think
558
00:46:46.269 --> 00:46:50.989
they have such a leadership place that, to your earlier point, they're going
559
00:46:50.989 --> 00:46:53.550
to get, you know, it's
going to continue to accrue to the positive
560
00:46:53.590 --> 00:46:59.309
for them. I think it's a
very good question actually. And Number One,
561
00:46:59.389 --> 00:47:04.179
I don't care. Number two,
I wouldn't invest in those companies because
562
00:47:04.179 --> 00:47:08.500
I think it's going to be very
commodetized. So so, for now Teslam
563
00:47:08.579 --> 00:47:14.619
may have a head start, but
you know, I'm pretty plugged into the
564
00:47:14.780 --> 00:47:21.849
likes of BMW, folks, Swag
and Audi, etc. The plowing a
565
00:47:21.929 --> 00:47:28.409
lot of resources into a battery technology, etc. And and I'm I'm I'm
566
00:47:28.530 --> 00:47:32.320
going to send sure that they'll all
catch up and it will become a commoditized
567
00:47:32.760 --> 00:47:38.280
product. The Chinese are onto it, you know, Fort General Motors,
568
00:47:38.559 --> 00:47:45.750
Chrysler, whatever, that they can
hire all the smart people and I think
569
00:47:45.789 --> 00:47:52.550
it would become again a commoditized product. I like the internal combustion engine vehicles
570
00:47:52.590 --> 00:47:57.269
are right now. So so would
you short Tesla if you could? Don't
571
00:47:57.269 --> 00:48:01.980
know if you can shorten the firm
now. Weekend Short but I think it's
572
00:48:02.059 --> 00:48:07.019
too early. I think they have
the head starts for now and may have
573
00:48:07.179 --> 00:48:12.179
it for another one or two years, but but it will. So you
574
00:48:12.260 --> 00:48:16.809
know the shorting games tricky and you
know one or two years is a long
575
00:48:16.929 --> 00:48:22.849
time right, long time Arizon to
be short. So I would and it's
576
00:48:22.969 --> 00:48:28.840
tough to exactly pinpoint when they lose
their competitive advantas edge, it will and
577
00:48:29.599 --> 00:48:34.119
invariably and doubtedly it will happen.
But you know, if they maintain it
578
00:48:34.199 --> 00:48:37.639
for another two years the stock may
still chapple from current levels. So I
579
00:48:37.679 --> 00:48:45.909
wouldn't take that bat and before we
rappless, I don't know if Steven had
580
00:48:45.909 --> 00:48:52.150
any other questions for you. You
talked earlier about the penetration of the EV
581
00:48:52.309 --> 00:48:55.420
market and this is obviously very anecdotal. was recently in a conversation with a
582
00:48:57.739 --> 00:48:59.900
group of people, I would call
some of them car guys, you know,
583
00:48:59.900 --> 00:49:04.139
they're really into Automo, with autos. Yeah, and one of them
584
00:49:04.139 --> 00:49:09.010
said something that kind of struck me, talk about how quickly the iphone became
585
00:49:10.530 --> 00:49:15.170
pain market share and when it first
came out in no Kia was huge and
586
00:49:15.530 --> 00:49:20.289
you know people are like, what
do I need this phone for? Are
587
00:49:20.409 --> 00:49:24.719
we gonna be surprised at how quickly
the internal combustion engine is we know it
588
00:49:25.119 --> 00:49:29.159
goes away. I mean, what's
the time frame for that if true?
589
00:49:30.039 --> 00:49:32.280
Yeah, I think again, very
good point. I think we will be
590
00:49:32.480 --> 00:49:37.630
surprised and we actually have some live
examples of what might happen. So so
591
00:49:38.590 --> 00:49:45.230
a real, real life example is
the country of Norway. Tiny country Scandinavia,
592
00:49:45.030 --> 00:49:52.699
but they will basically ban the sale
of internal combustion engine cars by two
593
00:49:52.699 --> 00:49:58.780
thousand and twenty five, so which
is quite soon. If not completely ban
594
00:49:58.900 --> 00:50:02.460
it, they'll text it at such
a level that it's pretty prohibitly expensive to
595
00:50:02.579 --> 00:50:07.050
buy one. And what you see
now already is that the general public,
596
00:50:08.449 --> 00:50:14.250
if you look at the the current
run rate, about forty two fifty percent
597
00:50:14.329 --> 00:50:20.530
of all cars sold are electric vehicles
in Norway. So you see that the
598
00:50:21.130 --> 00:50:27.559
public is not waiting until two thousand
and twenty five to buy electric vehicles and
599
00:50:27.719 --> 00:50:34.639
to stop buying ICEU vehicles. Right. It's now twenty twenty one and already
600
00:50:35.199 --> 00:50:39.030
you seeing that half the sales are
electric vehicles. So I think if,
601
00:50:39.269 --> 00:50:45.670
if, if you get some sort
of regulation that by twenty thirty or two
602
00:50:45.949 --> 00:50:51.019
and thirty five. In us,
you know, you you prohibably tax.
603
00:50:51.860 --> 00:50:55.860
I see you cars, you know, internal combustion fossil fuel cars. I
604
00:50:57.059 --> 00:51:01.699
think the general public will react a
lot more quickly and act more quickly way
605
00:51:01.860 --> 00:51:07.369
before those deadlines are set. And
that's what you see in Norway. That's
606
00:51:07.369 --> 00:51:12.809
what she suit saw with the IPHONES. There were no no regulatory you know,
607
00:51:12.929 --> 00:51:16.730
or tax issues, but just,
you know, convenience etc. I
608
00:51:16.809 --> 00:51:22.559
think you'll see the same with electric
people. So I think the VAMPA will
609
00:51:22.639 --> 00:51:28.079
be a lot more quick than them. Then then consensus is thinking now and
610
00:51:28.199 --> 00:51:34.750
then then you you can derive from
all those analyst projections. So I just
611
00:51:34.989 --> 00:51:38.469
have I think, I think you
know the the sort of consensus growth for
612
00:51:38.670 --> 00:51:46.699
EV sales is thirty percent annually between
twenty one and twenty five. If you
613
00:51:46.780 --> 00:51:51.179
ask me personally, I would think, you know, I would double that
614
00:51:51.219 --> 00:51:55.500
number, just sixty percent growth or
even higher. But that's just based on
615
00:51:55.619 --> 00:52:00.179
my personal observation. Starting to companies
etc. Right well, in you're putting
616
00:52:00.179 --> 00:52:04.409
your money where your mouth is,
at least your firms money, which is
617
00:52:04.449 --> 00:52:07.650
what it's yeah, at least at
least for these purposes. And there's a
618
00:52:07.650 --> 00:52:12.409
lot of other areas to write.
I mean we think the whole energy area
619
00:52:12.650 --> 00:52:19.239
into the utilities. Utilities are moving
away from fossil fuel to alternative energy sources.
620
00:52:20.119 --> 00:52:27.039
You know hydro, you know Sol
our wind, and you know we're
621
00:52:27.119 --> 00:52:30.909
definitely finding a lot of ideas there
too and just playing into that. But
622
00:52:31.110 --> 00:52:37.349
you know, that's maybe for another
time and all the discussion, but definitely
623
00:52:37.349 --> 00:52:45.860
the the whole theme of Going Carbon
Neutral by twenty thirty has an impact on
624
00:52:45.340 --> 00:52:51.900
many industries, and not just the
automotive and transportation industry. All right,
625
00:52:51.940 --> 00:52:55.219
well, yeah, yes, let's
have you back to talk about beyond the
626
00:52:55.340 --> 00:52:59.969
EV's and get an update on how
they're doing. We do have to leave
627
00:53:00.010 --> 00:53:04.130
it there. Our guests has been
Peter Tastelar, he's portfolio manager and founding
628
00:53:04.130 --> 00:53:08.289
part in the loo certain capital management
and the CEO of the Europeans Sustainable Growth
629
00:53:08.329 --> 00:53:13.599
Acquisition Corp, which is is back. Peter, thanks for being with us
630
00:53:13.599 --> 00:53:16.800
today. Okay, good and so
one conclusion is like, if you see
631
00:53:16.800 --> 00:53:23.280
any setbacks in a market, sell
anything except anything easy related at okay,
632
00:53:24.000 --> 00:53:27.909
thanks for having thanks, Peter,
about our good bye.