What If Tech Is Just a Flight to Safety?

Michael Hartnett at Bank of America points to the 1999 template, the narrow breadth where tech ripped more than 40% while almost everything else fell, as a warning that we are near a top. I see it differently, because I think the strength in big tech is just a flight to safety. The mega-cap names have been consolidating for the better part of a year and a half, and with the market staring down a possible rate-hike cycle, money is hiding in the few companies with the cash flow to withstand it while the rate-sensitive corners of the market quietly fall apart.

That is also why I am still not rushing in to buy the beaten-down financials, defense names, or something like American Express, even though I am a professional buy-the-dipper. I worry the agentic AI switching story, where a bot cancels the card you barely use or reshops your insurance in seconds, has more pain to inflict before the bleeding stops. Once it does, names like American Express should not stay this cheap with travel and the upper-end consumer still growing, and the ITA defense ETF looks like real value too. I am just not convinced the pain is over yet.

The biggest news of the weekend was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Axios, leaning into his I am the house line and brushing off the bond market fever, while confirming that Iran's crude exports have collapsed to zero under the naval blockade, which only reinforces my call that this war may be closer to an exit than people think. I also flag the Meta $628 billion off-balance-sheet footnote that bulls should at least keep as an asterisk, Brazil's 1st Round election sending Nu Holdings up double digits, and Nvidia printing fresh all-time highs to close the week.

Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. You can find every episode on Substack, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, and iHeart Radio. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore.

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Timestamps:0:00 Welcome & Pre-Market Overview0:39 Brazilian Elections: Bolsonaro's Surprise Lead1:29 Nu Holdings Surges 12% on Brazil News3:40 Meta's $628B Off-Balance-Sheet Debt Explained6:40 Hartnett's Risk-Off Deleveraging Triggers7:05 1999 Template: Narrow Market Breadth Comparison7:54 Is Tech Just a Rotation, Not a Bubble?10:13 Why Not Buy Financials Now?13:54 Defense Manufacturers in Pain16:55 Bessent on Axios: Biggest News of the Weekend18:19 Iran Crude Exports Drop to Zero20:37 Bessent: "I Am the House" & the Bond Market22:45 What Happened to the Golden Age?24:45 $16B Hudson River Tunnel Project27:05 Nvidia Hits All-Time Highs

Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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