349- Midterm Forecasts That Matter With Elias Martin

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Welcome everyone to politically high tech with your host Elias.
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This is gonna be episode 349.
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There'll be no guests in this episode.
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I really want to talk about the state of the midterms.
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Which party is gonna dominate the house, which party is gonna dominate the Senate, and which party is gonna interestingly, interestingly, get the majority in governorship.
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It has some implications, believe me, it does.
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And like I said, you should vote you know, vote more in a state in local elections.
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I don't got the bandwidth to cover local elections, but most local cover estates, especially the toss-up auto tilt, those are the ones I find interesting because they do impact various things here.
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So when it comes to and I want to share the screen real quick, when it comes to the house, according to Kelshi, uh Democrats are supposed to win.
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I agree with that.
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I completely agree with that.
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Even according to polling, there's a slight slight advantage of Democrats.
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They only agile Republicans by one.
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20 seats are considered toss-up.
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Kelchy thinks 85% chance the Democrats can control the House.
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I won't be that confident.
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I'll probably say Mike 70, but hey, they agree just to disagree there.
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So the seats I want to talk about are the ones are a toss-up.
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And I'm going to focus on one of them here.
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California's 22nd district, David Valadau.
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He's been there since 2021.
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Okay, and Trump narrowly won that district.
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But the interesting part is, according to Kelsey, the Democrats are almost guaranteed to take that seat.
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So that's the seat for the taking, and that's been the very shaky district for a while.
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And then for California's 8th district, Gabe Evans, a Republican, Trump narrowly won that.
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And the House narrowly won that as well.
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And according to Kelshi, 80% chance the Democrats are going to take it.
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So this might be another steal for the Democrats.
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Democrats are going to have to take seats.
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I don't know how much this seat majority it is.
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Maybe I'm guessing to be honest, I'm guessing more like between six to eight at this point.
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Maybe six to eight seat majority.
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And maybe be the first time Hacking Jeffries be elected, unless the DSA hold holds the votes, and they want to put their person in there.
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I thought it was going to succeed, but hey.
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And then this one is interesting.
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This one's considered toss up, but I think Democrats might maintain it.
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According to Kelch, it says 65% chance of Florida's 14th district.
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Kathy Kester is the incumbent.
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And I've said this in a couple of episodes.
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In Cumbent has about an 80% chance.
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I know one of the previous uh guests debated that a little bit.
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I ignore that.
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I'm going with 80%.
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That's I think that's conservative.
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I think to me that's conservative enough.
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Probably was thinking about 90s, but I think that even that's a little preposterous.
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And then the Florida's open 22nd district due to the redictions.
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No, this is more due to the census.
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Florida got one extra seat.
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And uh yeah, that's supposed to be Republican.
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Republicans can take the spot.
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Look like Casey Asker is favored to win.
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And then Jared Mekkowitz.
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You know, Trump won that district.
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I think he's fine.
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If I'm gonna predict that, I think he's he's gonna stay.
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And then Marionette Miller Meeks, become a Republican in Iowa's first district.
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This is interesting.
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Kelsey thinks the Democrats are gonna take it with a chance despite the House and Trump winning it.
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Well, especially by the House with small margins.
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I don't know.
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Iowa's been looking very shaky for Republicans, maybe because of their failure.
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They haven't done they haven't had a lot of success.
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I'm independent, but they haven't had a lot of success.
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And Iowa's uh second district, that's interesting.
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Republicans gonna keep that one.
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Um Iowa's third district, Zach Nunn.
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Then there's Kelsey saying Democrats are gonna take you.
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73% chance right here.
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I don't know.
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I might disagree with them on that one.
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I think Zach might keep it.
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I think it's gonna be like a snail biter kind of situation.
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This one's an interesting one.
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Democrats have held it.
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Khloe feels he he's not re he's not running for re-election.
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Trump won by great margins, and Kelsey agrees with 90% chance of Republican taking that particular seat.
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Jared Golden, interesting, very moderate Democrat in Maine.
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Paula Page, though he's a favorite to barely win that seat.
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And yeah, this is uh some interesting stuff you hear.
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This one, Michigan 10th District, John James, Republican, Republican, Republican, all this Republican.
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Kelsey's saying Democrats might take this seat.
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Okay.
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Missouri's Fish District, Emmanuel Cleaver, incumbent, Democrat.
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Yeah, I think it's gonna be Democrat controlled despite Trump winning that district.
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What else is looking interesting here?
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Don Davis, a very moderate Democrat in North Carolina.
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You know, Trump had a sizable victory here.
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I think he's gonna stay, and Kelsey agrees with that with 59%.
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And then what else we got here?
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Chuck Edwards is ending the re-election campaign.
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He ended about a month ago.
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Democrat might take that seat despite Trump in the House winning.
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Man, the Republicans are doing really, really bad.
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And I'm very moderate Republican, he's not running for re-election.
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Democrats have a shot at taking, according to Kelch.
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And Tim, and then Tom Kane, the one's been absent for a while because of depression.
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You know, Trump won't win small margins in the House.
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According to Kelshi, Democrats may take the New Jersey 7th District, 83% chance.
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Very, very interesting.
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And then Mike Lawler, the very pissed-off modern Republican in New York, 17th Congressional District.
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I think despite the 69% chance, yeah, I think Mike blew all of them.
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He might pull it or he might not.
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Republicans are doing really bad, so I don't think he's safe this time.
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I think he's a goner.
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Oh, Maximil, another one with filled with allegations of abusing his wife, allegedly.
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Trump won that district, but Kelshi predicts Democrats might take it.
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Brian Fitzpatrick, very a moderate Republican.
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I hope he stays personally.
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He's one of those trying to bridge the gap.
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He hasn't been much successful far.
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I hope he stays.
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House won it.
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Democrat won that district barely, but I think Kel She is slightly favoring Republicans.
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I hope they're right on that one.
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I like people who's trying to build consensus.
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Be a freaking grown-up.
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We need more of that.
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Okay, and then with these toss-up seats, all three of them in the Pennsylvania district, 7th, 8th, and 10th district.
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Democrats have a shot to take them, even though Republicans have barely won them in the past.
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Okay.
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And let's see, maybe that incumbent advantage may wash away.
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Let's see, because it can't remember about 80% of incumbents win.
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Yeah, they they win.
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And well, well, according to Al Green's case, he ran for the 18th district to the ridiculous thing, so he's a goner.
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He he lost his primary.
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So according to Kelchie, according to various predictions, Alex Mueller is going to take that as Republican.
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Republican, Republican, Republican.
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And he was out.
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He always protests against Trump, so she saved the Union.
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Monica de la Cruz, according to this, according to Kelshi, Democrats might take it, even though despite Republican victories, especially to Trump.
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Julie Johnson looks like the Republicans might take that seat.
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District 32.
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If it's Anthony Gonzalez, despite being toss-up, I think he's fine.
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This one open.
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Open.
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Texas 35.
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It looked like it might favor Democrat.
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I mean, I favorite Democrat here, barely, despite Republican, slightly Republican majority district.
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Utah won.
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It's open.
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It's saying that Democrats might take it.
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Yeah, it might be the only Democrat district in you in that state.
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And two more I want to talk about is Virginia's second district.
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She looked like the Democrats might take that one.
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She might be a gunner.
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Might be a gunner.
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And I know progressives are like Marie Blusa Camperez.
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Cersei flips pretty safe.
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And then Derek Van Orden, a Republican.
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He looked like he might be out, according to Kelch.
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Alright, Kelchie.
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What I think in these toss-ups, if I'm going to take a quick prediction, I could definitely be wrong, but I find he's a little fun to do.
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I think David Valdao's out.
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I think Democrat will definitely take that seat.
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Gave Evans, another one.
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I think Democrats are taking that seat.
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Kathy Kester, I agree.
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I think she's going to keep her seat.
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Florida, strong Republican.
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I think Republicans can take that open seat.
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Jam Rekord is fine.
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Let's get that one.
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Marion Milamix.
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I don't know.
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I think Kelsey might be wrong here.
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I'm going to go against Kelsey with the Iowa's first district.
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I could be wrong.
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Yeah.
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And Zach Nunn, Iowa's 3rd District.
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I think he's fine.
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I disagree with Kelshi in that one.
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Republicans steal these two seats.
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Louisiana 6th district and Maine 2nd District.
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I agree.
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I think can a Republican take the seat?
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I don't know.
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Maybe they might.
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I don't know.
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I think I disagree.
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I think uh I think a Democrat might take it.
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I think a Democrat might take that one.
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Tim Barrett.
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I think he's keeping his seat.
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I disagree with that one.
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This one, I think.
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Nah, I I kind of agree with Kelsey.
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I think they're gonna gobble up this seat.
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And if for North Carolina's 1st and 11th district, they say Democrats can have these seats.
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I don't know.
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I kind of agree.
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Democrats are earned the advantage here.
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Tim Kane, Tom Kane, whatever the hell his name is.
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I think he's a goner.
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He should be a goner.
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The fact that he wasn't there for a lot of times without giving explanation, he should be a goner.
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Mike Lawler.
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Is the Cumbancy strong enough?
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I'm gonna take a limb.
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I'm gonna go with Limb here.
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I think he's gonna stay.
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He might stay.
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Maximiliai, I think he's gone.
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I group Kelshi there.
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She might keep her seat.
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Yeah, oh, she's been here for a long time.
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At 83, yeah, she's gonna keep her seat.
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I hope he stays.
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But it looks shaky here for Pennsylvania's first district, Brian Fitzpatrick.
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Okay.
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And then these tossers are supposed to go for from Republican and Democrat.
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Yeah, I agree.
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I think these are all gonna be gobbled up.
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I agree with Kel Sheeples.
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Pennsylvania's 7th, 8th, and 10th District.
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I agree with Democrats.
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I agree with them wholeheartedly.
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I agree.
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Steve Cohen.
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Pretty Republican.
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Yeah, I think I think Republicans are gonna take that seat.
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That it's a red state.
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It's very red.
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Republicans are safe in that state.
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I am just like Texas 9th District.
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Yep, Republicans take that seat.
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This one, Democrats might take it.
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I agree.
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So I think Gonzalez, um, how long he's been there?
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I think he's yeah, I agree with Kelcher.
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I think he's safe.
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This open district, may go to Democrats.
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These two, these two open districts, Utah, first district of Texas, 6th 35th district.
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Yeah, Democrats gotta take some seats.
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Yeah, we gotta do that.
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And here, listen, coming here in Wisconsin.
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I think Democrats have taken a little momentum there.
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I think Democrats might win that one.
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Jenny Eggens for Virginia, second district.
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She might lose her seat.
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Yeah, her incumbent seat looks weak.
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And I kind of disagree with the first district.
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I think he might keep it.
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Robert, wait a minute, he has some incumbent seat there.
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10th term?
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Yeah, I I think I think he's safe.
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Alright, I think that was all for the house.
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Yeah, that was just for the freaking house.
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Can you believe that?
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That was all just for the House of Representatives.
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Now I want to turn my attention to the Senate.
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The much more interesting one.
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This is a real toss-up, but I think this is what I think here.
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The Democrats have a shot to actually take the Senate.
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Before I was I thought the Republicans could keep it with a slim majority.
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I don't know.
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It's such a toss-up.
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It's still possible.
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It's a toss-up.
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And this is how bad a Republicans have been doing.
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I mean, a lot of us jumping ship, and one of them, I can say he was jumping ship, it was Kevin Cayley.
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You know, he went from Republican to Independent, and even though he's caucus with the Republicans, at least for now.
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He, yeah, he's jumping ship.
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I mean, being a Republican is not cool right now.
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It really is.
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Being a Republican right now isn't cool.
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It isn't.
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Trump is not his weakest ever politically.
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And I want to share with you the Senate map.
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Let's just share that Senate map for a second.
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Yeah.
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So it's a toss-up.
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47-47.
00:15:26.480 --> 00:15:27.039
Yeah.
00:15:31.360 --> 00:15:34.000
The toss-ups, the one I'm interested in.
00:15:35.039 --> 00:15:36.720
Alaska is getting interesting.
00:15:36.799 --> 00:15:38.399
That's been a Republican seat.
00:15:38.879 --> 00:15:41.759
Kelsey predicts Democrats might take it with 64%.
00:15:42.480 --> 00:15:43.519
You know what they just named?
00:15:43.679 --> 00:15:44.559
This might be right.
00:15:44.639 --> 00:15:47.039
I I kind of agree with Kelsey in that one.
00:15:47.519 --> 00:15:50.000
What's the next one I think is interesting?
00:15:50.480 --> 00:15:51.440
I'm not Joe Near.
00:15:51.600 --> 00:15:54.320
I think the I think the I will see is Republican.
00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:58.000
Susan Collins, I think the Democrat might take that one.
00:15:58.159 --> 00:15:58.720
69%.
00:15:59.759 --> 00:16:00.559
I don't know.
00:16:00.879 --> 00:16:02.480
Susan Collins has been resilient.
00:16:02.639 --> 00:16:03.840
The polls has been against her.
00:16:04.080 --> 00:16:05.279
She always comes out on top.
00:16:05.600 --> 00:16:06.639
She's been there for a long time.
00:16:06.720 --> 00:16:10.080
Since 1997, I'm going to have to disagree with Kelshi.
00:16:10.639 --> 00:16:13.840
I think Susan Collins might pull a few tricks, but I don't know.
00:16:14.000 --> 00:16:16.799
But they go against a progressive this time, so we'll see.
00:16:17.039 --> 00:16:21.360
I could be wrong, but I think Susan Collins do not underestimate her.
00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:27.120
I gotta say it was only like 55%, but they're acting, they're kind of act like they're certain.
00:16:28.480 --> 00:16:34.399
Michigan, I think Abdul El Saeed will be Mike Rogers.
00:16:34.559 --> 00:16:36.720
That's my man Kelshi says 64%.
00:16:37.039 --> 00:16:38.799
I agree with Kelshi on that one.
00:16:39.039 --> 00:16:41.360
I mean, Muzzle's been building momentum.
00:16:41.440 --> 00:16:45.279
They got a sizable population, there's a good amount of progressives in Michigan.
00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:47.840
I mean, I think he has a legit shot to win.
00:16:48.080 --> 00:16:51.840
I am worried of some of the DSA policies, but I'm just gonna be fair.
00:16:52.000 --> 00:16:53.039
I think he's got a shot.
00:16:53.120 --> 00:16:54.879
It's not about my feelings.
00:16:55.360 --> 00:16:59.600
And then John Alston, he was just finishing J.D.
00:16:59.759 --> 00:17:03.279
Vance's own senator before he became vice president.
00:17:06.480 --> 00:17:07.920
He's a shaky grounds.
00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.480
I think Sherrod Brown might retake that seat.
00:17:10.640 --> 00:17:13.200
Yeah, Sherrod Brown might just take that seat.
00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:16.079
And this one here, Texas.
00:17:16.319 --> 00:17:18.400
Well, the incumbent is eliminated.
00:17:18.640 --> 00:17:20.880
So forget about the incumbent advantage.
00:17:20.960 --> 00:17:22.640
Sean Corin is done.
00:17:32.400 --> 00:17:34.000
I'm not gonna pay attention to safe race.
00:17:34.160 --> 00:17:35.279
They're boring as hell.
00:17:36.240 --> 00:17:37.440
That one's interesting.
00:17:37.519 --> 00:17:39.440
I think um Terrico got a shot.
00:17:39.519 --> 00:17:41.759
They cannot underestimate him for sure.
00:17:42.079 --> 00:17:42.880
Very shaky.
00:17:42.960 --> 00:17:46.079
Normally that's uh that's a solid red seat.
00:17:46.880 --> 00:17:47.440
Hmm.
00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:50.079
A solid red seat.
00:17:50.319 --> 00:17:53.839
So yeah, well, the rest of this is boring.
00:17:54.559 --> 00:17:57.519
And let me just speak for my state of New York.
00:17:58.160 --> 00:17:59.920
But I'll speak about that later.
00:18:02.160 --> 00:18:07.759
Based on my honest prediction, I think Terolinko might get this one.
00:18:07.839 --> 00:18:09.279
I'm gonna go against Kelshi here.
00:18:09.359 --> 00:18:11.119
I think Terolinka's gonna get the seat.
00:18:13.039 --> 00:18:13.839
Democrat.
00:18:17.200 --> 00:18:20.559
Democrat that's already 50 right there.
00:18:22.559 --> 00:18:24.640
I think Democrats might win by one.
00:18:25.279 --> 00:18:25.839
Yeah, by one.
00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:28.319
I think it's gonna be 50 5149.
00:18:28.720 --> 00:18:29.839
Favorite Democrats.
00:18:30.240 --> 00:18:31.599
That's my prediction.
00:18:32.240 --> 00:18:34.400
That's my prediction for sure.
00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:41.839
Now for the now for the next part of this.
00:18:42.000 --> 00:18:43.759
And I want to talk about the governorship.
00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:45.680
I'm just gonna start with my state, New York.
00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:47.359
Kathy Hokel's gonna win that.
00:18:47.440 --> 00:18:49.200
That's not a very interesting one.
00:18:50.319 --> 00:18:52.319
Kathy Hokel's gonna win that.
00:18:52.400 --> 00:18:56.000
Before I could babble on, let me just share you my screen.
00:18:56.079 --> 00:18:57.279
I'm watching here for a 20.
00:18:57.839 --> 00:19:01.519
And the source is 270 to win.com.
00:19:02.240 --> 00:19:03.359
It's very interactive.
00:19:03.440 --> 00:19:05.759
You can play with it, make your own predictions.
00:19:05.920 --> 00:19:08.880
It's kind of fun for a political nerd.
00:19:10.079 --> 00:19:11.519
Mike Don Levy.
00:19:12.079 --> 00:19:13.200
Mike Don Levy.
00:19:14.559 --> 00:19:20.079
He there Kelshi's predicted that Democrat might take that governor seat.
00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:21.039
63%.
00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:23.440
That's I think that's a bit daring.
00:19:24.480 --> 00:19:25.039
Hmm.
00:19:25.200 --> 00:19:26.079
I don't know.
00:19:26.240 --> 00:19:28.880
I think Republic I'm gonna go with a consensus here.
00:19:29.039 --> 00:19:31.119
Go disagree with Kelshi on that one.
00:19:31.759 --> 00:19:33.759
Yeah, I don't know what they're talking about there.
00:19:33.920 --> 00:19:34.319
Kemp.
00:19:35.440 --> 00:19:38.559
Keisha Lance Bottoms, a pretty big name in there.
00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:40.240
I think she got a shot.
00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:42.319
Yeah, I agree with Kelshi 57%.
00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:43.920
I agree with Kelshi.
00:19:44.079 --> 00:19:46.079
I think that one's gonna flip into blue.
00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:49.039
Brian Kemp can I run due to two term limits.
00:19:49.519 --> 00:19:51.519
Flora's not interested, not as interesting.
00:19:51.680 --> 00:19:52.799
Rod Santos.
00:19:54.480 --> 00:19:55.839
Yeah, he's term limited.
00:19:55.920 --> 00:19:58.000
Byron Donald's gonna get that seed.
00:19:58.720 --> 00:20:04.000
The Republican primary was a bit nasty, especially that James Fishback, who was the far right lunatic.
00:20:04.160 --> 00:20:05.759
I'm happy that he lost.
00:20:06.079 --> 00:20:06.559
Far right.
00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:08.079
I don't like far whatever.
00:20:08.720 --> 00:20:12.240
Um this one's interesting.
00:20:12.480 --> 00:20:15.279
Cam Reynolds, not she's not running for re-election.
00:20:15.680 --> 00:20:17.839
Kelsey's saying Democrats might take it.
00:20:17.920 --> 00:20:18.960
That's a bit daring.
00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:21.119
I I don't know if I agree.
00:20:21.359 --> 00:20:24.559
I think I think Republicans might barely keep that one.
00:20:25.359 --> 00:20:28.880
This one, Kansas, Laura Kelly, Democrat.
00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:29.680
Yeah, I agree.
00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:31.920
I think the Republicans could go with that seat again.
00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:32.960
68%.
00:20:33.519 --> 00:20:38.960
I just I agree with I agree with Kelshi on that one.
00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:42.480
Maine, I don't get I don't care for that one.
00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:44.559
Born, boring, boring.
00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:49.039
Nevada, where Cid City's located.
00:20:49.920 --> 00:20:52.400
Joe Lombardo, I think he's gonna keep the seat.
00:20:52.480 --> 00:20:54.000
I agree with um Kelshi.
00:20:55.200 --> 00:20:58.640
You know, incumbent sees very important, just like safe for New York.
00:20:58.799 --> 00:21:01.279
Kathy Hogel, 90% chance.
00:21:01.599 --> 00:21:02.960
I'll give it 90.
00:21:03.119 --> 00:21:06.319
But yeah, just spitting hairs at that point.
00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:08.079
Yeah, Hokel got it.
00:21:08.240 --> 00:21:09.039
Mike Dwayne.
00:21:09.440 --> 00:21:11.119
He's saying a Democrat might take it.
00:21:11.200 --> 00:21:15.279
I mean, if that Grandmaso makes such a joke, I'm gonna go Kel Shea.
00:21:15.440 --> 00:21:15.920
I agree.
00:21:16.079 --> 00:21:22.079
He he only has a few good points, but other than that, he's he's not gonna make it.
00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:24.319
Greg Gabbba, yeah, I think he's keeping his seat.
00:21:24.400 --> 00:21:28.400
I think the overblown that one old bullshit about Democrat winning that one.
00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:31.279
I I I think Greg Gabbas's gonna keep that seat.
00:21:32.880 --> 00:21:36.319
I think Democrats are gonna keep this Wisconsin governor seat.
00:21:36.640 --> 00:21:39.920
And Kelsey, I mean Kelsey agrees, 79% chance.
00:21:40.240 --> 00:21:42.240
79% chance.
00:21:44.960 --> 00:21:45.680
Boring.
00:21:50.319 --> 00:21:55.200
You know, it's been 26 24 governorship seats.
00:21:55.759 --> 00:21:59.759
Favor Republicans, but I don't know, it might split even, or I think, or Democrats might get us.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:01.039
Small majority.
00:22:01.920 --> 00:22:06.240
Election markets say 27-23 favorite Democrats.
00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:11.680
And if for the off years it'll be only three seats, yeah, this one is three six.
00:22:12.079 --> 00:22:16.000
Midterms is always a lot of governor seats up for reelection.
00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:19.839
Yeah.
00:22:22.240 --> 00:22:45.200
States like Washington, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, the Virginias, West Virginia, Plain, Virginia, New Jersey, Rhode Island, North Carolina.
00:22:45.359 --> 00:22:47.839
They don't get to play a significant role.
00:22:48.319 --> 00:22:49.680
They're not part of this.
00:22:49.839 --> 00:22:55.599
And then what comes to presidency is not as much governorship up.
00:22:55.680 --> 00:23:00.559
But what comes to midterms, there's always a lot of governor seats up for grabs.
00:23:00.720 --> 00:23:01.680
36 seats.
00:23:02.480 --> 00:23:07.759
That's nearly three-fourths of the country up for re-election for governor.
00:23:09.039 --> 00:23:09.599
Alright.
00:23:11.039 --> 00:23:13.920
So yeah.
00:23:15.200 --> 00:23:19.359
I mean again, let me just reiterate.
00:23:19.519 --> 00:23:23.680
Let me just reiterate what Kelshi's predicting here just to make sure it's absolutely clear.
00:23:24.559 --> 00:23:33.599
Kelsey's predicting, which I think is a bit too ballsy in my opinion, that Democrats can have 232 seats versus 202.
00:23:35.039 --> 00:23:44.400
So they're saying that they might have, if I can do my math right, 218s was the majority.
00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:52.960
And then you say they might have a 14-seat difference for Democrats.
00:23:53.359 --> 00:23:54.160
I don't know.
00:23:54.319 --> 00:23:56.400
I might moderate that a little bit.
00:23:58.400 --> 00:24:00.240
I said 6-8 before.
00:24:01.920 --> 00:24:03.440
I go with eight seats.
00:24:03.680 --> 00:24:04.720
I go with eight.
00:24:04.799 --> 00:24:07.599
So if you minus that, that's like 224.
00:24:10.640 --> 00:24:12.480
No, that'll be 226.
00:24:12.799 --> 00:24:13.119
Yeah.
00:24:13.359 --> 00:24:14.720
So I'll buy yeah.
00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:23.359
You know, and yeah, this is what they predict in here.
00:24:23.440 --> 00:24:31.039
And if the Senate, which I think they're a little more friendly towards Republicans, that's what they say, at least.
00:24:32.400 --> 00:24:38.240
But Kelsey is already predicting, well, they're slightly favorite Democrats, technically.
00:24:38.400 --> 00:24:40.240
They say 50 seats for Democrats at 48.
00:24:40.480 --> 00:24:41.279
Two is a toss up.
00:24:41.519 --> 00:24:42.880
They're not even sure about two.
00:24:43.359 --> 00:24:45.200
And two, they're not even sure about.
00:24:45.359 --> 00:24:46.400
I'm gonna point them again.
00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:49.440
Is that Ohio seat in that Texas seat?
00:24:51.279 --> 00:24:56.720
Ohio's been favored about a Republican, both of them's been about favorite about the Republicans.
00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:59.039
So it might be a 50-50 split.
00:24:59.279 --> 00:25:00.400
That's a possibility as well.
00:25:00.559 --> 00:25:07.759
And if that happens, that split, that just means Republicans technically still got the advantage because who's a vice president?
00:25:07.920 --> 00:25:09.839
JD Fancy's a Republican.
00:25:10.000 --> 00:25:12.880
So look so he nearly split when it comes to Kell Street.
00:25:13.039 --> 00:25:16.079
52% Republicans could have that.
00:25:16.480 --> 00:25:18.400
I'm gonna go slightly ballsy here.
00:25:18.480 --> 00:25:24.640
I think the Democrats might win by a gain majority, only a one-seat majority.
00:25:25.039 --> 00:25:25.680
Yeah.
00:25:26.240 --> 00:25:30.000
That's what that's why I think it's gonna happen there.
00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:31.519
So what you think?
00:25:31.680 --> 00:25:35.119
What did you really think about these predictions?
00:25:35.279 --> 00:25:36.480
Is your host crazy?
00:25:36.640 --> 00:25:38.400
Is he onto something?
00:25:38.880 --> 00:25:42.480
These these this is gonna be very interesting.
00:25:42.559 --> 00:25:44.000
It's gonna impact a lot of things.
00:25:44.160 --> 00:25:51.119
The Democrats used to say going in one chamber to start the impeachment, the impeachment start by the House, and the Senate has to do the trial.
00:25:51.680 --> 00:25:53.680
Yeah, that's that's how it works.
00:25:53.920 --> 00:25:57.839
So Democrats take the House, they can do the investigation and start the impeachment.
00:26:01.839 --> 00:26:06.000
Let's just assume even if Democrats got all 51 seats, it's not gonna be enough.
00:26:06.240 --> 00:26:09.680
You need 60 to declare the president guilty.
00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:12.240
Guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty.
00:26:13.039 --> 00:26:16.880
They kind of almost had him with 50-something votes, but don't you need 60?
00:26:17.359 --> 00:26:19.680
You need that, you need the majority.
00:26:20.000 --> 00:26:21.839
Okay, you need that majority.
00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:25.200
So impeachment, I think it's out of the table.
00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:28.319
If you ask me, impeachment is out of the table.
00:26:28.480 --> 00:26:33.839
So you think, again, the House, it's guaranteed Democrat at this point.
00:26:33.920 --> 00:26:38.480
It's just how many seats are gonna win by, how big is the majority gonna be?
00:26:38.559 --> 00:26:40.000
That's the big question there.
00:26:40.160 --> 00:26:42.400
And if for the Senate, that's a real toss-up.
00:26:43.200 --> 00:26:50.160
Republicans can barely keep it, or the Democrats are gonna upset it and get a very slim majority.
00:26:50.559 --> 00:26:55.599
And if for governorship, let me just read that number again.
00:26:56.880 --> 00:27:03.759
According to Kelsi, Kelshi, they predicting a 27-23 seats favoring Democrats.
00:27:03.920 --> 00:27:07.119
Democrats haven't had the majority of state governorship for a while.
00:27:08.079 --> 00:27:11.440
It's been a slim majority Republicans across the board.
00:27:11.519 --> 00:27:12.480
Yeah, believe it or not.
00:27:12.559 --> 00:27:17.759
I know you New Yorkers, Californians will feel that because it's always been Democrat, Democrat, Democrat.
00:27:18.000 --> 00:27:22.640
But no, Republicans have always been strong on the state level, especially.
00:27:22.880 --> 00:27:27.599
That might change because they're they're just they're just so screwed up right now.
00:27:27.759 --> 00:27:29.039
They really are screwed up.
00:27:30.079 --> 00:27:32.960
Trump has lost so much political capital, it's not even funny.
00:27:33.039 --> 00:27:34.160
And that's gonna bleed in.
00:27:34.240 --> 00:27:35.680
It's definitely gonna bleed into all of that.
00:27:35.759 --> 00:27:37.440
So the president of the party's doing bad.
00:27:37.599 --> 00:27:49.039
This is why the referendum happens, this is why the opposing party normally wins, because the party takes over, they don't deliver their promises, people get pissed, and the opposition normally gets energized.
00:27:49.119 --> 00:27:50.559
That's been the cycle.
00:27:50.799 --> 00:27:54.160
Let's see, will that cycle maintain or will it be halfway fulfilled?
00:27:54.319 --> 00:27:54.799
We will see.
00:27:54.960 --> 00:27:56.559
I think we will see.
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:02.079
This is gonna be uh interesting midterms for sure, and I hope some of the sets happen.
00:28:02.160 --> 00:28:07.440
I I want to be shocked, I want to be surprised, but we we will see about that.
00:28:07.759 --> 00:28:12.960
So this is the final, final, final plea.
00:28:13.279 --> 00:28:14.000
Not plea.
00:28:14.240 --> 00:28:16.799
This is a five this is a wrap-up here.
00:28:16.960 --> 00:28:25.759
So rate this podcast, give a review, give um it's four stars, if you think someone should improve, we'll give a five star.
00:28:26.319 --> 00:28:30.000
When a fifth episode's been great, and give a reason why it's been great.
00:28:30.079 --> 00:28:40.400
If it's a five star, okay, you can rate it on Apple Podcasts as Spotify, and also you know, and also, you know, just give a like, share, share his podcast.
00:28:40.799 --> 00:28:41.279
All right.
00:28:41.440 --> 00:28:46.240
So whenever you listen to this podcast, if a blessed day, afternoon, or night.