The Hidden Risk in Your Revenue Forecast

Most agency owners assume that more new business is always better.

But what if relying too heavily on new clients is actually increasing the risk in your business?

In this episode of Creative Outcomes, Craig Baldwin walks through a practical revenue planning framework and explains why agencies that depend too heavily on net-new sales often create unnecessary volatility. From client retention and account growth to sales forecasting and marketing investment, Craig shares how to evaluate your revenue mix and why 20% net new revenue is a healthy benchmark for most agencies.

If you're planning for the next quarter, or next year, this episode will help you think differently about where your growth should come from.

In this episode:

- Why new business is your riskiest source of revenue

- The difference between growth and replacing churn

- Why account growth is often easier than finding new logos

- The 20% net-new revenue guideline

- How much agencies should invest in sales and marketing

- A practical framework for building a healthier revenue forecast

If you're trying to build a more predictable, profitable agency, this conversation is worth adding to your planning process.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Why relying on new business can become a problem

02:00 Different agency models require different growth strategies

08:15 The 20% rule for healthy revenue planning

13:40 Why new business is the riskiest revenue in your forecast

18:20 Evaluating revenue through a risk lens

21:15 How much should agencies spend on sales & marketing?

24:15 The questions every agency should ask about its revenue mix

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