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Microsoft's Xbox reckoning: layoffs, the Minecraft raid, and the case for ad-funded discovery

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INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO EPISODIO

Xbox just laid off thousands, spun off four studios, and cancelled games it had defended a day earlier. Greg Posner and games-industry analyst Colan Neese take apart Microsoft's restructuring memo and land on an uncomfortable read: this wasn't a bad week, it was the bill coming due for a decade of running gaming as a lifestyle business.

They dig into the losses (64 cents gone on every dollar spent), the decision to starve Minecraft to prop up everything else, the Game Pass numbers that never made the memo, and the blame pie: how much lands on Phil Spencer, and how much on CEO Satya Nadella. Then they split hard on the future. Colan makes the case that the fix is an ad-funded, one-to-one discovery engine. Greg goes down swinging for a different read of why players won't leave the games they already know.

Two live games along the way: ranking Microsoft's biggest IP by revenue (and where the AI got it wrong), and an invest-or-sell round on Xbox's dormant franchises.

In this episode
(0:00) Cold open, and the week that broke Xbox
(9:00) The layoffs and studio spin-offs: Avowed cancelled, a new Fallout greenlit
(11:54) The memo: losing 64 cents on every dollar, and starving Minecraft
(18:15) Phil Spencer, the "wayward son with a credit card"
(19:07) Restructuring, and the Game Pass numbers that never got named
(23:49) Colan's "script for Asha Sharma," and why Xbox is a distant fifth platform
(29:24) The pitch: ad rev-share, the way YouTube pays creators
(32:00) Game: rank Microsoft's biggest IP by revenue
(37:35) Game: invest or sell Xbox's dormant franchises
(44:49) The blame pie: how much is on Satya Nadella
(49:56) The debate: is discovery broken, or are players just comfortable?
(1:09:00) Games for Change NYC, and what's next

Quotables
Colan Neese: "You lost 64 cents on a dollar, and you took from the profitable engine that was Minecraft."
Colan Neese: "Ads are just content. It's just a different kind of content."

Links and mentions

Player Driven: https://playerdriven.io
The Operator's Briefing, our weekly newsletter: https://playerdriven.io/level-up
Join the community on Discord: https://discord.gg/GC5PkbKFH
Games for Change, NYC, July 21

About
Player Driven Live breaks down the business behind the games every week, for the people who build, run, and rebuild them. Hosted by Greg Posner with analyst Colan Neese. If this is your kind of conversation, subscribe, and come argue with us in the Discord.

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WEBVTT
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Welcome to Player Driven.
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Greg here.
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I want to talk a little bit about what I'm gonna get into this episode because this week we're replaying the episode that I filmed live with Colin last week where we talked about what was going on at Xbox with their recent layoffs and their restructuring as well as what's going on with Sony and physical media.
00:00:17.359 --> 00:00:19.679
There was a whole lot of conversation that went on last week.
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And if you do like these live conversations, I know a few of you do, be sure to check them out on Thursdays.
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We record them on YouTube or as well as LinkedIn, and there's conversation that goes on, and we do it live, and we love when hearing from you.
00:00:31.359 --> 00:00:35.759
So if you like these recorded episodes, you can join live and it's super cool.
00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:45.759
Uh but we started to see some success with some of our social media posts, and it got me realizing that I need to kind of rebuild my front-end website for people that are coming to me.
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Because from a marketing perspective, the way I'm starting to look at some of this stuff based on what we're learning is that all right, a user will find a video on TikTok or Instagram.
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I want to learn a little more.
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And if they were to go to the website, the normal playerdriven.io, it's a very more business-focused website.
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We talk about kind of our structure, why we're building it out, how we're building it out, but it doesn't really have that content where as if you're a user on one of those platforms, you probably want to see similar content.
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So that got to me, that got me to building Intel.playerdriven.io.
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This is much more of an idea of a front end.
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Hey, I am a social media user that clicks onto this website and wants to learn more.
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What am I going to see?
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Well, more social media content.
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And then I was talking with Lewis because he's big into the design desk stuff, and he started talking about the idea of gamifying some of it and making it fun to play along and try and make things like debates and pick a side and things like that.
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So we started taking some of that game design theory that we started talking about on these episodes.
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And even though I'm not an expert in any of this, the more I start hearing about it, the more I want to tinker.
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And the beauty of AI is that allows me to tinker and play with this stuff.
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So we've been building out Intel.playerdriven.io and building all these game mechanics into it.
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And it's been super cool.
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So I encourage anyone out there with the tools that are available these days, if there's a hobby or an interest or something you've never really thought you might be wanting to test out before, just try it and see what starts to come out.
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You can't you can break a lot of things with it, but you can't break things with that much with AI.
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So like go and have some fun.
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That's me getting off my my high horse here now.
00:02:23.840 --> 00:02:27.039
So this week's episode, like I mentioned, is with our live with Colin.
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Uh, I hope, first of all, I appreciate everyone who's listening to it.
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Thank you so much.
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Be sure to check out our socials or our Discord and I hope you enjoy this week's episode.
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Look at that right on time.
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Colin solved all of our IT technical difficulties for the week before we even went live, and this is a hero's job.
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We are aiming for less than 10 technical difficulties today, so we're starting off strong.
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Uh yeah, we're we're getting there, man.
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We're getting there.
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Colin, you're about to go to Legoland.
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Is this your heaven on earth?
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So you saw my thing.
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Uh yeah, it's uh it's uh it is uh it's a fun place.
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Um I kind of wish the rides weren't so bad, but you know, what do you do?
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Um they're all you have you been to Legoland, you just kind of sit.
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It's like everything is basically it's a small world where you're like in the sense that you're like on a boat and you just go around and look at things and you get off the boat, and the next ride's like you're on a train, and the train goes around in a circle and you look at things, and they're all like Lego statues and whatnot.
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Um, and like my kids not quite old enough to want to ride the roller coaster yet, so he and they're like not roller coasters by any roller coaster aficionado standards.
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They are the epitome of kitty coasters, and um, we're not there yet, so I you know we'll see.
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It's his birthday, we're going again, and I hope that we can ride something with a little more oomph.
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He loves the Ninjago ride, though, which is the the the one ride that's different than the sit in the thing and go in a circle and look at stuff is the ninja like the the Toy Story knockoff rides, where it's like you're playing a 3D kind of um game of sorts.
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Um and that one he likes Ninjago.
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I think we wrote on that like eight times last time.
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So much Ninjago.
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All right, so you got yourself prepared for what you're doing this time around.
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Now, will I buy anything?
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Uh he's getting something.
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I don't know what I'm gonna get if I get anything at all.
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We'll see.
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Are you calling?
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I saw a few days ago, maybe last week, you posted your new Pikachu miniatures, or maybe that was a picture of what's to come.
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Oh, that's what's to come.
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Yeah, no, the Pokemon, uh the Pokemon minifigure that's been kind of out there for a while, but they finally got pictures of them, and then they Lego kind of officially posted what they're gonna be, which they look stunning.
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I mean, I I mean they would have sold a lot of sets if it was just Pikachu in the Pokeball with uh red or ash, whatever you know, whichever you float your boat, call them whatever.
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Um, I guess it's not technically Ash, it's the character from the first game.
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So I'm turning on some fans.
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I don't die in here.
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Um, it's hot in LA today.
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Um, but um yeah, now they have not one, but they have the Eevee minifig.
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And I was telling someone like you could have split that into two packs, two sets, and people would have bought them both just to have the Eevee minifigue.
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Eevee is probably the second mascot of Pokemon behind Pikachu.
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Um, if you're my daughter, Eevee's Eevee's the king, queen, you know, um, ev in her evolutions.
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Um, but alas, you get them both in the one set, which is amazing.
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So, yeah, that is uh that is on the horizon.
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And I am almost done with my Blastoise Venusaur and Charizard Mega Set.
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I think it's like 6,000 pieces or something.
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Wow.
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It's a lot of pieces.
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Yeah, um, Charizard's the last one, so we're we're getting through him.
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We're getting through him.
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I just haven't had time and been busy.
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How about yourself, man?
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How are you doing?
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How's how's player driven?
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Have you any good conversations with folk this week?
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Uh, this week did I have I had a few conversations.
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Um, talking with someone from Netflix in a couple weeks.
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Right now, Lewis and I are actually gearing up for games for change.
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So we're talking to a couple people from Tencent, a people a couple people from the actual Games for Change.
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And it's interesting.
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It I always kind of ask myself what questions should I be asking these people?
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Because they're all so much smarter than me.
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And and trying to think what other interesting we've been kind of working on the Intel website this week, intel.playerdriven.io, more of a front end for people who find us on TikTok and Instagram.
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I came to this learning this weekend.
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So our clear your we should talk more about physical media so I can get roasted on all your attention.
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The other one was Meta by MetaShabai Xbox.
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That was the other one people hated me about.
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But these clips, I normally don't get a ton of traction on Instagram.
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I love that they hate you when I'm the one saying it.
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Hey, it's all right.
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I take your bullets for you here, Colin.
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Um, but it got a lot of engagement, and I actually saw people, I was able to track the metrics that people were coming to my website from from the shorts, and it got me thinking to myself, if someone finds us on TikTok or Instagram and they go to playerdriven.io, it's not really the right place for that audience to land.
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And I'm learning way more about marketing than I ever thought I would, whether it's right or wrong, that is still to be determined.
00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:04.560
But it's been a busy week here.
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My wife is in Italy for the week, so it's just been me and my kids, and it's been like a hundred degrees here in the beginning part of this week.
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So it's been a long week, and I am ready to just close my eyes and relax for the weekend.
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Let her come home and just she deals with everything.
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That's not how that works, but um yeah, I uh I uh that's not how that works, man.
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That's not how it works.
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Um, well, I mean, uh, one, I think it's hilarious that you got roasted all the weekend.
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You were like sending me like, hey, look at this, and I'm like, meh, they're wrong, but whatever, I don't care.
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People hate our faces, it's great.
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Man, the anger that physical media gets people in.
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It's like, guys, yeah, I know.
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I said it wasn't going anywhere.
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I just said it was gonna become a niche product that you know, you if you want to want to put stuff on your shelf, then you clearly you're one of those things people that want to put stuff on their shelf.
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I I'm one to back anyone who wants to put stuff on their shelf.
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I have stuff on my shelf.
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Like, I respect everyone's got a thing they like to put on their shelf.
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Uh I uh it's the museum of me mentality, right?
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It's the museum of me.
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Like, so what's in your museum of me, right?
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Um so anywho, but hey, look, all engagement's good engagement, is what we say at my game.
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So even if you're getting negative sentiment, quote unquote, on the uh TikTok machine, um, I'm sure I'm sure it did wonders in terms of uh traction and attention.
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So look at all attention's good attention.
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The more people that want to come at pitch at us with pitchforks at you, I'm all for it.
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It's uh if if I if I have to become the skip a list of gaming talking heads, and I guess that's my destiny.
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You don't want that to be your destiny, you want to have at least some pride in what you're doing.
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Oh, so I might got Stephen A?
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I don't know.
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Oh, Stephen A's worst, right?
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He's the angry one.
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Stephen A is the one that everyone dislikes, right?
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Skip Bayless, I guess, is just more of the douchey.
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Maybe not.
00:08:53.120 --> 00:08:55.919
So there's no heroes in this world, is what you're suggesting.
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Uh, this is all various villains, they're like Batman.
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Uh if you're the hero long enough, what happens?
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You become the villain.
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Everyone's right.
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And the biggest villain this week is my my baby Xbox.
00:09:10.080 --> 00:09:14.799
Are they or they are they just ripping the band-aid off and they're actually the hero of this?
00:09:15.519 --> 00:09:19.919
No, you you became bullish on Xbox at such a wrong time.
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Like we go back almost, we've almost been doing this a year.
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Maybe we're coming close to a year, and I was the huge bullish one on Xbox.
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You were anti-Xbox, and all of a sudden the dumpster's on fire.
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You're like the dog sitting in the room saying everything's okay.
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It's there's no band-aid being ripped.
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Uh, if they are, it's blowing up a brand that I think can't come back from the amount of sentiment it's building up into this, and it's got to do something else.
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Well, I will say, and I'm not the only analyst in the industry that said this, so I will you know give credit where credit's due.
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Um, one in particular, Yoast has been saying this for forever over at Super Yoast, former Super Data guy.
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He's been on this like kind of path as well.
00:10:00.159 --> 00:10:04.000
But um, everything I said about Xbox a year ago is exactly what's happening now.
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I was like spot on, dead on, including the idea that they might sell the thing.
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I was like, Yep, I also said that too, right?
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Um, and then I came around it on it when I kind of saw what I think they're trying to do as the strategy moving forward, which is when I became more bullish.
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So in six to nine months, when they execute, I'll look back and say, I was right again.
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So um being bullish, it's making the right call.
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That's fair.
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Oh, I'm bullish that it's uh it's the right play.
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Um, I had to continue down this uh game pass, cannibalization, make-believe money.
00:10:37.840 --> 00:10:40.639
I mean, this I mean, my whole piece today.
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I mean, I I I like the rest of the industry, can't like untalk not talk about the real house wife's um life that is like following the Xbox PR machine, and this week was no different.
00:10:51.600 --> 00:10:52.240
Another episode.
00:10:52.399 --> 00:10:59.840
Unfortunately, the consequences were pretty stark with the first half of cuts, which let's put a pit in that because I think it's all messed up now.
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They're just like half of you are gone, half of you might be gone.
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We don't know what you'll who else will be here.
00:11:05.679 --> 00:11:10.720
Stay tuned next week, sort of like like kind of kick in the shin or whatever, right?
00:11:10.960 --> 00:11:19.759
But I mean, I but I do think there's this house cleaning and this comeuppance that's been building up for a while, like the subsidies have to stop, the money didn't make sense.
00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:22.960
Um, um, and we can go into each individual piece.
00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:30.240
The fact that you know they're gonna like they were greenlit uh avowed two, and they were like not making a fallout.
00:11:30.320 --> 00:11:35.840
Um, at least I know I've seen kind of reports that there is a fallout being made, this is a separate fallout, like whatever.
00:11:36.000 --> 00:11:44.159
They clearly did not prioritize a key marquee franchise over a game that struggled to put it kindly to find an audience.
00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:46.159
Um, it's just baffling to me.
00:11:46.320 --> 00:11:47.440
So, yeah, man.
00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:56.399
I the but these are the things that have to happen for you to kind of reset everything and kind of press forward, like it was inevitable this was gonna happen.
00:11:56.480 --> 00:12:01.200
Um, it would, I mean, it started with Phil Spencer and it's now going down to everybody else below him.
00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:03.440
So let's start high level.
00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:08.559
So people who are listening, not everyone is a gaming world that listens, just understands what's happening.
00:12:08.720 --> 00:12:10.720
And most people have heard at this point, right?
00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:12.000
So, first off, there's layoffs.
00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:15.200
Microsoft announced 3,200 layoffs over the course of the year.
00:12:15.440 --> 00:12:18.720
The first 1600 were done pretty much immediately.
00:12:18.879 --> 00:12:23.840
Then, as Colin's saying, the next 1600 is going to be throughout the course of the year.
00:12:24.000 --> 00:12:32.960
Some of the hardest hit studios were id software, which you may know from the OG games of OG days of gaming with things like I think Quake and Doom all run on id.
00:12:33.279 --> 00:12:35.120
Uh, Obsidian was hit pretty hard.
00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:41.600
Studios were spun off, DoubleFind, Ninja Theory, Compulsion, Undead Labs are being spun off into independent entities.
00:12:41.679 --> 00:12:46.159
And Double Find and Compulsion are actually going to keep their game catalogs, which is cool.
00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:48.080
Lots of game cancellations.
00:12:48.320 --> 00:12:55.519
Avowed, I loved Avowed, man, is canceled, even though the day before they told us it's too far in advance to cancel.
00:12:55.679 --> 00:12:56.720
I love the PR.
00:12:56.799 --> 00:13:00.720
Everyone's really talking together and making sure they come up with good game plan here.
00:13:00.879 --> 00:13:06.080
And they're creating a new Fallout game, which is great if it would have been three years ago when the show popped off.
00:13:06.639 --> 00:13:07.039
Whatever.
00:13:07.279 --> 00:13:11.360
And then you have the strategic realignment that Asha has been talking about.
00:13:11.919 --> 00:13:13.279
Brand is not healthy.
00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:19.759
Yep, hardware costs are hardware costs are killing people right now, and a lot of stuff going on.
00:13:19.919 --> 00:13:23.039
I'm gonna ask you to talk more in detail about some of this.
00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:29.759
That's kind of my high level, but you know, this news hit hard this week, and it's not news that was a surprise to anyone.
00:13:29.840 --> 00:13:34.320
We knew something was gonna happen, and I want to hear just kind of what your mindset is like, Colin.
00:13:34.879 --> 00:13:39.679
Well, I mean, this was the faucet fully turning on after about a month of drip drip.
00:13:39.759 --> 00:13:42.639
Like, this has been drip dripping since the beginning of June.
00:13:42.799 --> 00:13:52.159
So um, via leaks, via reporting at Bloomberg as a source that I was like, I caught and like the Windows Central also did a good job of kind of following a lot of the stuff.
00:13:52.320 --> 00:13:53.840
So shout out to those places.
00:13:53.919 --> 00:13:56.960
But like, yeah, this has been a drip drip that just the faucet turned on.
00:13:57.039 --> 00:14:06.320
Like, let's go to the strama memo because there's like I think there's like three, maybe four things out of that memo that she wrote herself that I were like, oh, okay.
00:14:06.480 --> 00:14:13.600
The first and most like jaw-dropping one, and this makes complete sense, is that they were losing 64 cents on every dollar they spent.
00:14:13.759 --> 00:14:16.240
Like, you can't run a business if you're doing that.
00:14:16.399 --> 00:14:22.000
Like, just you can't, even if you're a trillion-dollar company, market cap company like Microsoft.
00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:23.360
Like, that's just not business.
00:14:23.519 --> 00:14:24.960
That's just insanity.
00:14:25.120 --> 00:14:29.679
Um, it is quite literally the patron of the arts, um, was what Microsoft was being.
00:14:29.759 --> 00:14:36.480
If we want to go back to the Renaissance era, and yeah, that's just not sustainable, especially when that company that owns you.
00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:44.159
Um, I have a take, a little bit of take, but I'd say the company that owns you is now looking for couch cushion money to pay for its AI expenditures.
00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:49.600
Like what they could see as a loss, but honestly, the losses were marginal to the amount of revenue they were pulling in.
00:14:49.679 --> 00:14:56.399
So it's like they mean it sucks, but you know, it was cool to be in gaming, maybe, so they could afford to kind of put money there.
00:14:56.559 --> 00:15:01.039
Maybe they wanted some losses to like off on their PL so it weren't just a profit machine.
00:15:01.120 --> 00:15:04.720
There's you know, corporate machinations that you know do that sort of thing.
00:15:04.799 --> 00:15:13.279
Um, sorry, Apple TV, but I think you solely exist to hide the fact that you're making pure cash and profit from from uh Google's uh services revenue.
00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:20.240
They just hand you$20 billion every year with like the cost of a lawyer negotiating the deal for search to be the default on your iPhone.
00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:26.639
Um, that's pure money, and so you need losses, so they create a place where you could sink a lot of losses into.
00:15:26.799 --> 00:15:27.519
It doesn't matter.
00:15:27.679 --> 00:15:30.559
And um, not to say gaming was that, but it could be that.
00:15:30.639 --> 00:15:36.080
And now they're in a position where they can't be that, so they're asking for well, this actually needs to make sense.
00:15:36.159 --> 00:15:39.440
And if you're losing 64 cents on every dollar, it doesn't make sense.
00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:41.279
Um, uh, they'll let you jump in.
00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:50.080
The next biggest thing I had a few, but like the other big one was how much they hosed Minecraft by just taking their money that they earned and just giving it to everyone else.
00:15:50.159 --> 00:15:59.919
It's like you had like a big brother who's just wealthy, had a Ferrari, got the NFL contract or the NBA contract, and then everybody around that person's like, hey, can I get a Ferrari too?
00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:03.039
Or can I get a can I get a Honda Civic or can I get a house?
00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:07.919
And all of a sudden, that star who's earning that cash has no money for themselves because they gave it out to everyone else.
00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:14.399
It's effectively what Minecraft does for Microsoft over the last 10 years, and that is just inexcusably awful.
00:16:14.480 --> 00:16:16.320
Like, I shout out to Mojang.
00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:17.360
Like, I feel bad for you.
00:16:17.519 --> 00:16:24.480
Um, I've it's what it's like almost like criminal because they own you, but like how short-sighted were they not to further invest into Minecraft?
00:16:24.559 --> 00:16:26.159
It'll never be fully explained to me.
00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:28.559
Like, I I it breaks my brain when I think about that.
00:16:28.639 --> 00:16:36.639
Like, you lost 64 cents on a dollar and you took from the profitable engine that was Minecraft, and then they, you know, they probably use that money to go on a spinning spree.
00:16:36.720 --> 00:16:44.320
They went and bought, you know, you know, Xenomax Bethesda, they went and bought all the kind of smaller studios before that acquisition, they went and bought ABK, not because of that revenue.
00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:57.919
Obviously, they had to go to DAD and the ATM um to get that one, but they're you know, taking one for one hand and giving it to the other with no actual returns, um, or even games in some cases, like just didn't do anything for the last you know eight, nine years.
00:16:58.000 --> 00:17:01.440
Um, not that they weren't doing stuff, but nothing actually came of that work.
00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:09.839
So I wish I could have a job where I could not show any outcome for nine years of money making and be like, hey, I still got my job right.
00:17:09.920 --> 00:17:11.039
And like, of course you do.
00:17:11.119 --> 00:17:11.920
We need you around.
00:17:12.079 --> 00:17:14.799
So, I mean, business has got a business at some point.
00:17:14.880 --> 00:17:15.440
Jump in, Greg.
00:17:15.599 --> 00:17:16.720
I want to hear your thoughts on those two things.
00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:18.480
I have other thoughts on the memo she wrote.
00:17:18.799 --> 00:17:22.000
So the first one you mentioned was the game passed 64 cents.
00:17:22.240 --> 00:17:23.119
64 cents on every dollar.
00:17:23.279 --> 00:17:24.400
64 cents on the dollar, right?
00:17:24.480 --> 00:17:25.279
That that's nuts.
00:17:25.519 --> 00:17:32.000
And you understand that they subsidized some of their costs in order to get more awareness, more people, but that reach wasn't working like they said it was.
00:17:32.160 --> 00:17:38.960
I think they were talking about having 77 million people on Game Pass by, I think, this time, and they were at maybe 30 million.
00:17:39.039 --> 00:17:43.599
So they're clearly nowhere near the numbers that they thought they were going to hit, and that's clearly an issue.
00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:51.359
I think the big sell on Game Pass was the idea that you can upsell your cosmetics or your goods, you know.
00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:53.279
Think of how Candy Crush always operated.
00:17:53.440 --> 00:18:00.640
Free to play, you have incentives to buy things in-game, and that doesn't really translate to console-based gaming as well.
00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:05.039
And the one game that it probably works in, Call of Duty, didn't work.
00:18:05.279 --> 00:18:13.599
And I want to touch Call of Duty a little bit as well, because Call of Duty, again, everyone paid for let's call it the success of Call of Duty.
00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:15.599
Call of Duty didn't flop hard.
00:18:15.839 --> 00:18:19.759
Call of Duty was fine enough, but it wasn't fine enough to carry everyone else.
00:18:19.920 --> 00:18:22.799
And I think that's kind of what the Minecraft side of things was as well.
00:18:22.960 --> 00:18:32.400
It's fascinating how you have the most uh innovative, the most maybe not innovative, the most profitable pieces of gaming uh uh software at your disposal.
00:18:32.480 --> 00:18:40.720
You have game studios, you have schools, you have everyone using this to help educate people, but the amount of money going back into it is just minuscule.
00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:46.960
How are you not building up that pillar as something that's uh something that's uh important and something that you stick by?
00:18:47.039 --> 00:19:07.200
And I think it's okay for your strongest pillar to help fund everything else, but you need to be building up that strongest pillar to continue to be bigger because you see Roblox, you see Fortnite and UEFN to a way getting better creator tools than what Minecraft has, and all of a sudden Minecraft will start falling behind it, and it's just a miss across everything.
00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:25.359
Yeah, um to go to the Minecraft bit, it's the equivalency in media is if like Disney was making all the one uh they came out with Iron Man, and Iron Man just came and kept printing up more money, and instead of making the MCU, they decided to do fund a bunch of arthouse projects that made no money and actually lost the money.
00:19:25.440 --> 00:19:29.680
And they're like, Kevin Feige's like, can we finally make more Iron Man or do something else?
00:19:30.000 --> 00:19:31.839
Like, oh no, no, no, no, no, no, keep selling Iron Man.
00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:33.279
You're good, you're good, you're good, you're good.
00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:37.839
We're just gonna keep taking all that revenue that's coming through Iron Man and just put it toward everything else.
00:19:37.920 --> 00:19:44.720
Um, mostly arthouse films that are no one's gonna see or care about because we feel it kind of builds the subscriber base of Disney Plus.
00:19:44.799 --> 00:19:45.920
You're like, what?
00:19:46.559 --> 00:19:49.759
Um, so that's kind of what happened in Minecraft.
00:19:49.920 --> 00:19:54.880
Um, and I I just gotta I just had to take a walk on that, man.
00:19:54.960 --> 00:19:58.160
I have nothing else to say other than like staggered, shocked.
00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:05.039
Um, like in our data, we've always known that Minecraft, we've always felt that Minecraft is the biggest game in the world, and it's a number one selling game of all time.
00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:06.640
Um, more than GTA 5.
00:20:06.720 --> 00:20:07.759
It just sells, right?
00:20:08.000 --> 00:20:18.160
And they've squandered a decade plus of opportunity to build it into something even greater by just you know, you know, basically treating Xbox as a lifestyle business.
00:20:18.240 --> 00:20:20.559
And like let's all this all falls on Phil Spencer.
00:20:20.640 --> 00:20:21.599
Like, there's no dodging it.
00:20:21.680 --> 00:20:23.599
I know people are like, everyone's dogging on him now.
00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:34.559
I'm like, well, yeah, well, we spent the last decade clapping like seals, everything the guy said it did, but this guy clearly couldn't run a business, and the buck stops in part with him, and we should talk blame pie at the end of this.
00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:49.359
But like I would give a significant helping of Blame Pie to Phil because to me he is the he is the uh wayward um son who had a credit card to spend whatever he wanted to, but never really succeeded in life, but pretended he did.
00:20:49.440 --> 00:20:51.519
That's kind of my my read of that guy.
00:20:51.680 --> 00:20:55.279
Um, in the business sense, he might be a terrific human being.
00:20:55.519 --> 00:21:01.200
Um doesn't matter because he was not successful at the business of life uh at the at the terms of business.
00:21:01.279 --> 00:21:03.680
Like his job was to run a business and he just did it.
00:21:03.759 --> 00:21:06.640
Um so um yeah, that that's sad.
00:21:06.720 --> 00:21:09.519
Um the other bit of the Sharma piece was the restructuring.
00:21:09.599 --> 00:21:12.079
So go back to the Mojang and like king of it all.
00:21:12.240 --> 00:21:15.519
She took two profitable engines and said, now you're reporting to me.
00:21:15.599 --> 00:21:22.480
So K of A BK no longer reports in the BK A B, so they're separate from A B and now they report into her directly.
00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:23.519
That's interesting.
00:21:23.680 --> 00:21:26.079
And then Mojang, which should have happened.
00:21:26.160 --> 00:21:29.519
Like, why were they underneath the portfolio business and subsidizing everything?
00:21:29.680 --> 00:21:30.160
Crazy.
00:21:30.319 --> 00:21:31.599
Now they're not good, right?
00:21:31.680 --> 00:21:33.920
So she made the right moves in that regard.
00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:43.519
And I believe the former COO or some position at senior leader at King is now her her like number like on top and her like chief of staff now, so promoted upwards.
00:21:43.599 --> 00:21:45.039
Um, I cannot remember off the top of my head.
00:21:45.200 --> 00:21:50.240
Apologies to those watching this, but making very good moves, and that stuck out to me as well.
00:21:50.640 --> 00:21:56.079
And the last thing, she didn't mention game pass at all in her news area, didn't mention it by name once.
00:21:56.160 --> 00:21:59.759
She just talked about hardware, the challenges of the studios.
00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:04.720
The money leaving out the door, but never talked about really jogging to the Game Pass at all.
00:22:04.799 --> 00:22:12.319
And like other than that, their subscriptions basically dropped from 34 million to 30 million last time they publicly said a number.
00:22:12.559 --> 00:22:13.839
So there you have it.
00:22:14.079 --> 00:22:15.680
The story of Microsoft.
00:22:16.319 --> 00:22:19.119
I will play Devil's Advocate.
00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:23.839
I don't think Studios reporting directly to the CEO is a good idea.
00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:27.599
I think first of all, she's got no gaming experience.
00:22:27.680 --> 00:22:31.200
And I understand people say she's got other experience, and that's perfectly fine.
00:22:31.359 --> 00:22:39.200
But I think you have someone, I don't forget, I forgot what Matt Booty's old title was, like head of the game studios, but like, and maybe he still has that title.
00:22:39.279 --> 00:22:49.039
I know he's got something in there still, but like I think you need a buffer in between CEO and studios because she's got to be worrying about more than just games.
00:22:49.119 --> 00:22:51.599
She's got to worry about Xbox Live as a service.
00:22:51.680 --> 00:22:54.079
She's got to worry about other Xbox entities as well.
00:22:54.160 --> 00:22:55.759
And I think I don't know.
00:22:56.079 --> 00:23:00.319
When you have more direct reportees, I think it becomes very messy and things get slow.
00:23:00.799 --> 00:23:05.200
Um, I guess I see King as an ad business, not a game studio.
00:23:05.359 --> 00:23:17.359
They just the the the business is ads, um, and the business that they put people in front of ads is games, which is a big tell on where my opinion where they're headed, makes sense to kind of begin to split them off.
00:23:17.440 --> 00:23:19.599
Um to kind of say, okay, you're here now.
00:23:19.759 --> 00:23:24.640
Um, you're making money via ads, and so let's kind of lean into that.
00:23:24.799 --> 00:23:25.759
That makes sense to me.
00:23:25.920 --> 00:23:29.279
Um and Minecraft's a platform, they're not a game.
00:23:29.440 --> 00:23:31.680
So like it makes sense to begin to split the lines there.
00:23:31.759 --> 00:23:38.640
And if they own more of like micro platforms over time, then maybe they can live underneath the my Xbox platform business or something like an effect.
00:23:38.799 --> 00:23:42.640
But like Minecraft's a platform, so it makes sense to me to begin to split that off as well.
00:23:42.799 --> 00:23:50.559
Um, but lastly, and you know, something I said over a year ago or a year ago now, is that there's not a zero percent chance they start spinning off all these organizations.
00:23:50.720 --> 00:23:54.079
If they're gonna do that, you need to start cutting them up and not having them report to each other.
00:23:54.240 --> 00:24:04.079
Like, you can't sell the blob, like I said, um, and we I know we talked about this before, but you can sell the parts, which is how they'd have to do it, and they're beginning to split the parts up.
00:24:04.160 --> 00:24:18.319
And if the end goal is to sell it, which I don't necessarily think it's going to be out the gate, I think they're gonna make a good try at the the ad model, but like they are at least structurally kind of moving it in a direction where it can be spun off for parts um at some point.
00:24:18.559 --> 00:24:23.200
So yeah, well, you got your parts already coming apart here, and I'm curious.
00:24:23.359 --> 00:24:30.160
Out of these studios that we spoke about, we have double find, we have compulsion, we have ninja theory, we have undead labs.
00:24:30.480 --> 00:24:34.559
Do you have one in your mind you think is gonna be the most successful post?
00:24:35.200 --> 00:24:41.839
Um, I mean, in our data, state of decay three has a pretty sizable hype machine behind it, so that would be the one.
00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:46.079
Um, everyone else, like good luck to you.
00:24:46.240 --> 00:24:47.839
Um, it's tough out there.
00:24:48.000 --> 00:24:59.920
Um now they it's a cultural, it's a this is a really interesting business exercise because these companies were owned by Microsoft for so long, had so much money flowing through them.
00:25:00.240 --> 00:25:06.880
Can they go back to kind of downsize their house and all that sort of stuff as they tried to figure out a new path?
00:25:06.960 --> 00:25:08.160
And that remains to be seen, man.
00:25:08.240 --> 00:25:11.039
That's it's not as easy as saying, oh yeah, just go make a game.
00:25:11.200 --> 00:25:16.480
Because one, the market they're entering now is far more challenging than the market they exited when they did and they got purchased.
00:25:16.559 --> 00:25:18.079
That's like number one, right?
00:25:18.240 --> 00:25:19.200
Things have changed.
00:25:19.359 --> 00:25:21.759
Discovery is such a harder thing now.
00:25:21.920 --> 00:25:29.200
Um, it requires either more luck or more money, and um, they're leaving the place with more money, and that doesn't even solve their problem.
00:25:29.440 --> 00:25:31.839
So um I don't know, man.
00:25:31.920 --> 00:25:33.759
I mean, I don't want to say they can't succeed.
00:25:33.839 --> 00:25:39.359
I'm just I think there's a lot of challenges in trying to succeed, and it's the same with any studio right now.
00:25:39.440 --> 00:25:40.640
So it's just it's tough.
00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:44.079
They're basically being thrown out in the wilderness with a bunch of wolves around them, right?
00:25:44.559 --> 00:25:51.519
Yeah, and I think you mentioned discovery, and that's a topic I want to get into today, but we'll save that for afterwards.
00:25:51.759 --> 00:26:03.119
But I know you on your patch notes this week, if you haven't checked it out, Paul Colin's patch notes dropped early today, so he can go enjoy 72 straight hours of Legoland and it's a small world.
00:26:03.279 --> 00:26:08.799
So check out his patch notes, and you went different today, and I thought it was a cool approach to it, right?
00:26:08.880 --> 00:26:12.720
You wanted to kind of role-play it as if you were sending an email of Osha.
00:26:12.960 --> 00:26:15.599
And I want to know if you want to set this up and if you feel like reading it.
00:26:16.240 --> 00:26:18.720
I don't know if I'm the right person to read it, but I will say this.
00:26:18.880 --> 00:26:25.279
Um, yeah, I have written around, I you know, estimate 25,000 words in 13 months on on Microsoft.
00:26:25.440 --> 00:26:27.519
Um uh I actually try, I mean, yeah.
00:26:27.680 --> 00:26:31.519
So like I had said enough about this uh situation, this company.
00:26:31.599 --> 00:26:37.279
I've come at it from multiple angles, and I my conclusion still hasn't changed.
00:26:37.359 --> 00:26:45.119
So, like, and it's weird because if you're writing a weekly newsletter, as I find myself doing, and you're not talking about Microsoft this week, then what are you really doing?
00:26:45.200 --> 00:26:49.759
Like, could I zag and talk about Ubisoft and the Assassin's Creed black flag?
00:26:49.839 --> 00:26:53.759
I mean, I guess, but I mean the story is the story, and it's Microsoft again.
00:26:53.920 --> 00:26:58.000
So I decided to take a different approach, which is inspired by Ben Thompson, Sir Techary.
00:26:58.240 --> 00:27:13.920
He wrote an email like a an article newsletter earlier this week uh from the perspective of Mark Zuckerberg going to the Wall Street market on the next earnings call and describing what the hell is Meta doing, um, basically, um, and what's their play in AI and trying to kind of uh take that approach of what he should say.
00:27:14.000 --> 00:27:15.599
And so I was like, that's a really good idea.
00:27:15.680 --> 00:27:18.079
I'll just kind of mirror that, steal it, whatever you want to call it.
00:27:18.240 --> 00:27:21.759
Flattery, you know, best form of flattery is theft, maybe, uh, in this game.
00:27:21.920 --> 00:27:23.359
So I took it and I ran with it.
00:27:23.440 --> 00:27:31.839
And yeah, you know, and again, it's just reiterating a lot of my thoughts I've said before, which is like one, like an honest, like, hey guys, like this all didn't work.
00:27:31.920 --> 00:27:34.319
Like, someone needs to come out and just be straight and blunt about it.
00:27:34.400 --> 00:27:41.920
Game Pass didn't work, the acquisition strategy didn't work, the everything's an Xbox was a disaster that didn't work.
00:27:42.000 --> 00:27:50.799
Like, all these things didn't work, and it wasn't right that we were just taking from Mojang and like putting the money into everything else instead of putting it into Mojang, right?
00:27:50.960 --> 00:27:59.759
It like these things were just colossal misses that we did, like these were bad bets we made, and now we're on the path and to rectify them.
00:27:59.839 --> 00:28:02.880
And like on the hardware side, like we talked about this before.
00:28:03.119 --> 00:28:05.680
Apologize to third-party partners, like take two.
00:28:06.000 --> 00:28:33.920
I'm sorry, we have less Xboxes in the universe, and you probably modeled out when you were building games for our box like five, six years ago, because we decided to destroy the value in owning a box in a console ecosystem, forcing you to kind of rethink how you approach PC because it's become way more important because we decided the console ecosystem was no longer important to us, and that has downstream impact, not just to us as a company and owning studios, but to our third-party partners who relied on us to have a scaled platform.
00:28:34.000 --> 00:28:35.839
They are not a scaled platform anymore.
00:28:36.000 --> 00:28:45.119
They're that that ship has sailed, they are subscale relative to Steam, relative to PlayStation, relative to mobile as a platform, relative to Nintendo.
00:28:45.200 --> 00:28:48.400
Like they're like fifth place in a distant fifth, right?
00:28:49.119 --> 00:28:52.720
Um, some would argue Roblox is bigger than the Xbox ecosystem.
00:28:52.880 --> 00:28:55.759
Um, so like not great, right?
00:28:55.920 --> 00:29:02.240
And so they should say all these things, admit their history, and then go, what's the path forward?
00:29:02.319 --> 00:29:03.920
Which is everything I've said to you before, man.
00:29:04.000 --> 00:29:10.880
It's like we gotta we gotta open up the model, we gotta change how we how we monetize the attention that we have.
00:29:11.039 --> 00:29:19.359
And one of the stats I have in my newsletter, which is one I put out there before uh before the uh before the stuff broke my brain around Evolve 2.
00:29:19.519 --> 00:29:21.279
I saw I was I just need to take a walk.
00:29:21.359 --> 00:29:22.240
I couldn't believe that story.
00:29:22.319 --> 00:29:25.680
The now that they tell us story is always great when things bad happen in a company.
00:29:25.759 --> 00:29:36.160
Like this is a um uh uh shoot, he's uh he's a ringer podcast guy, but uh, you know, um does the now tell us about NBA stories after a player gets traded and then they come out with the now they tell us.
00:29:36.319 --> 00:29:38.799
It's like Xbox, all the stuff happens, now they tell us.
00:29:38.880 --> 00:29:41.599
Like now they tell us they weren't gonna make uh a new Fallout game.
00:29:41.759 --> 00:29:42.559
Like, wait, what?
00:29:42.720 --> 00:29:44.319
Like now they tell us now.
00:29:44.400 --> 00:29:46.000
They tell us they were gonna make a vow too.
00:29:46.079 --> 00:29:46.880
Like they were?
00:29:47.119 --> 00:29:48.960
I can't believe this is insane.
00:29:49.279 --> 00:29:58.240
But anyways, my point on that is um 85% of player attention it consistently is sucked into games that are two years or older.
00:29:58.319 --> 00:29:59.519
That's just a fact.
00:29:59.920 --> 00:30:10.079
And if the only mechanism to monetize that attention is via the purchase or season passes, if they exist in those games, then we are under monetizing that attention by a lot.
00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:14.000
And Matt Ball has written about this, and by the way, he's at Xbox now, written a lot about this.
00:30:14.079 --> 00:30:24.160
He did his whole deck and a whole section on it was how they're under monetizing the attention inside of games, generally speaking, outside mobile, which does a good job monetizing that attention.
00:30:24.319 --> 00:30:27.359
And you come to the conclusion that they got to just change that somehow, right?
00:30:27.440 --> 00:30:29.519
Which is a a new approach to a new model.
00:30:29.599 --> 00:30:30.319
And I'll pause.
00:30:30.400 --> 00:30:32.000
Any thoughts on everything else?
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:39.039
No, I I think it's all really interesting and kind of sad, a lot of sadness here, right?
00:30:39.119 --> 00:30:41.440
As a platform falling so far behind.
00:30:41.759 --> 00:30:47.200
Uh I I see recovery being a lot tougher than the way you put it.
00:30:47.359 --> 00:30:51.359
I think it's almost they got good IPs, right?
00:30:51.440 --> 00:30:57.359
And they can do something with these IPs, but who's gonna trust anything they say going forward about any of this stuff?
00:30:57.680 --> 00:30:57.920
Good point.
00:30:58.240 --> 00:31:04.400
I think trust once trust is broken, it's just and luckily, like again, this is a wild week.
00:31:04.480 --> 00:31:06.000
It's like who can say the worst thing?
00:31:06.240 --> 00:31:12.000
Sony comes out with physical media, Xbox, it's like dumb and dumber of who's coming out with news here.
00:31:12.240 --> 00:31:17.839
And they're both controlling the games we can play outside of the PC market, which I know everyone attacks me.
00:31:17.920 --> 00:31:19.440
This is why I buy things on Steam.
00:31:19.519 --> 00:31:27.039
Again, when you die on Steam, you don't get to transfer your games, so it's actually not like things are much better there, but I don't know.
00:31:27.279 --> 00:31:29.920
Greg, Nintendo gave everybody a 10% raise.
00:31:30.000 --> 00:31:37.759
I always talk about but we don't need to go down that that often topic rabbit hole again and again and again.
00:31:37.920 --> 00:31:42.400
Um, that's why I propose so everything I read in this week's newsletter is pretty much the same.
00:31:42.480 --> 00:31:45.440
The one radical, not even radical, the idea I threw out there.
00:31:45.519 --> 00:32:02.480
I'd say if I were them, what I would do is I would say, hey, gaming industry who is very allergic to ads, believe me, I get all the all the traction on all the channels I'm on to tell me that I'm wrong about ads and that they're disruptive and players will hate them, which I disagree.
00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:04.640
Revealed preference versus stated preference.
00:32:04.720 --> 00:32:07.599
It's people will watch ads to get the free content.
00:32:07.759 --> 00:32:20.079
Um, but that all said, one thing they could do to definitely open up the aperture to people being more willing, at least on the the the um we'll call it the supply creator side, is do what YouTube did, give them a share of the revenue.
00:32:20.160 --> 00:32:25.440
Like now, YouTube's model is 55% or 55 cents on every dollar they make from ads goes back to the creator.
00:32:25.599 --> 00:32:26.880
And you know what YouTube has built?
00:32:27.039 --> 00:32:35.680
A empire on creators who love YouTube up and down, um have built massive empires, and when they get too big for YouTube, they become Mr.
00:32:35.839 --> 00:32:42.720
Beast and they go off to the next thing, or they retire um and kind of go on with their lives elsewhere, like PewDiePie, right?
00:32:42.799 --> 00:32:44.319
Like you don't have to stay on YouTube forever.
00:32:44.400 --> 00:32:48.000
You could become wealthy and set for life, and you could just stop YouTubing.
00:32:48.079 --> 00:32:53.200
That Pat, you know, another gaming icon, um, sold his whole business and does stuff on the side now.
00:32:53.279 --> 00:32:55.200
He's basically out of the YouTube content creating games.
00:32:55.279 --> 00:32:56.799
At least as a full-time gig.
00:32:57.119 --> 00:32:59.440
So do that, Xbox.
00:32:59.599 --> 00:33:17.839
Um, every you build the flywheel of creators if you're giving a portion of the revenue you're making from ads back to the creator that at the end of the day, and that will incentivize them to um, you know, at least be more open to the idea of a free tier of game pass that's supported by ads if you do some sort of ad rev share.
00:33:17.920 --> 00:33:21.200
Not saying it should be 55%, probably shouldn't be zero percent.
00:33:21.279 --> 00:33:33.279
I think there's a world in which you could build goodwill, at least on that side, and then begin to build because I, you know, I know we're gonna talk about this at toward the end, but the same technology stack that builds ads is the same technology stack that builds discovery.
00:33:33.359 --> 00:33:43.039
They are the same, except instead of blindly building a discovery engine, which is effectively what Steam's trying to do, without the flywheel going back in there with money to kind of pay for it.
00:33:43.359 --> 00:33:46.559
Ads is the way to pay to build the tech stack for discovery.
00:33:46.640 --> 00:34:02.720
The more ads that flow through, the more the better the targeting, the better ROI on ads, the more that the advertisers, be it a lot of different people, will put money into your ad engine, the more that goes into the technology that that makes the ads better, which includes discovery, because again, it is literally the same technology.
00:34:02.880 --> 00:34:05.440
Ads are just content, it's just a different kind of content.
00:34:05.759 --> 00:34:07.519
It's a circle of life, baby.
00:34:07.680 --> 00:34:12.000
Uh, for our listing, there is some conversation going on.
00:34:12.159 --> 00:34:15.039
You can see right above my head, we have our little uh Discord link.
00:34:15.119 --> 00:34:16.639
You can scan it, get into the Discord.
00:34:16.800 --> 00:34:21.920
But Colin, I know you're not a huge social media user, but we're gonna play a game right now.
00:34:22.000 --> 00:34:22.400
All right.
00:34:22.800 --> 00:34:23.280
The game.
00:34:23.840 --> 00:34:24.559
It's a great game.
00:34:24.639 --> 00:34:25.039
Don't worry.
00:34:25.119 --> 00:34:27.760
I'm gonna give you six IPs.
00:34:28.000 --> 00:34:34.639
These are the top six IPs in Microsoft, and I want you to rank them one to one through six on where you think it is.
00:34:34.719 --> 00:34:37.440
And at the end, I'll tell you if you're right or not.
00:34:37.760 --> 00:34:40.480
Like gaming IP or just like company IP?
00:34:40.800 --> 00:34:41.679
Gaming IP.
00:34:41.840 --> 00:34:48.400
So I'm gonna go in just a random order here and tell you what it is, and you can tell me one through six, and you don't know which one's gonna be next, okay?
00:34:49.039 --> 00:34:50.079
Minecraft.
00:34:50.400 --> 00:34:51.039
One.
00:34:52.239 --> 00:34:56.960
And this is all based on just so you know, money made, revenue made, and this is all via Claude.
00:34:57.199 --> 00:34:58.800
Very deep research done here.
00:34:59.039 --> 00:35:02.880
Um, so based on publicly public information on non-reported numbers.
00:35:02.960 --> 00:35:08.559
I can't wait to be disagree with this, but let's say it once again to tee it up so I can edit that part out.
00:35:08.639 --> 00:35:10.559
We're gonna start with Minecraft.
00:35:10.880 --> 00:35:12.559
Oh, am I saying one again?
00:35:12.639 --> 00:35:12.880
One.
00:35:13.039 --> 00:35:13.920
Yeah, you're saying one again.
00:35:14.000 --> 00:35:14.480
Nailed it.
00:35:14.800 --> 00:35:15.039
Okay.
00:35:15.199 --> 00:35:18.320
I'm not telling you if you're right or wrong here, so we're gonna keep it at the end here.
00:35:18.559 --> 00:35:21.119
Number two, Candy Crush.
00:35:25.119 --> 00:35:26.639
I'm actually gonna go two.
00:35:26.880 --> 00:35:27.920
I think it's number two.
00:35:28.400 --> 00:35:28.719
Okay.
00:35:29.440 --> 00:35:31.360
Number three, Halo.
00:35:32.639 --> 00:35:34.000
Is it six?
00:35:34.400 --> 00:35:35.119
Maybe.
00:35:35.599 --> 00:35:37.599
Um like six.
00:35:37.679 --> 00:35:40.639
I put it whatever the bottom of the list is that you're giving me, it's at the bottom.
00:35:40.800 --> 00:35:41.440
So you got six.
00:35:42.079 --> 00:35:43.199
Unless there's something worse coming out.
00:35:44.559 --> 00:35:45.760
I'm just gonna put it toward the end.
00:35:45.840 --> 00:35:46.960
Say it's a five or six.
00:35:47.199 --> 00:35:49.679
No, we're gonna put five or six there, then Diablo.
00:35:53.519 --> 00:35:54.719
Ooh, that's a good one.
00:35:54.800 --> 00:35:56.239
I'm probably gonna say so.
00:35:56.320 --> 00:36:01.039
If three, I'm gonna assume is cod, four is Warcraft five.
00:36:01.199 --> 00:36:05.519
I will put it toward the bottom too, but given the list, as I'm assuming what's coming next.
00:36:05.599 --> 00:36:09.280
So I'm gonna put it uh five or six, but I would put it above Halo.
00:36:09.360 --> 00:36:12.239
So it's above Halo, Halo's behind it.
00:36:12.480 --> 00:36:16.159
All right, so we're gonna put Halo, we'll put Diablo as five, Halo at six.
00:36:16.320 --> 00:36:18.960
We said COD, you said COD was what, three or four?
00:36:19.199 --> 00:36:22.960
Three, and then my last one you named it already, was Warcraft.
00:36:23.199 --> 00:36:32.400
Yeah, so my list would be uh Minecraft, um, Candy Crush, COD, Warcraft, Diablo, and then Halo.
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:38.559
And then, you know, if he had thrown Elder Scrolls on that list, I probably would have said oh, Elder Scrolls above Halo.
00:36:38.639 --> 00:36:40.719
I would have given so many things above Halo.
00:36:41.360 --> 00:36:41.840
All right.
00:36:42.000 --> 00:36:45.599
So I'm just gonna read these out one more time so you get your answers.
00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:55.840
You said Minecraft was one, you said Candy Crush was two, you said Call of Duty was three, you said Warcraft was four, Diablo was five, and Halo was six.
00:36:56.000 --> 00:36:57.280
Here are the actual numbers.
00:36:57.679 --> 00:37:00.000
I have to caveat this because I know this is true.
00:37:00.159 --> 00:37:04.159
Microsoft doesn't report Mojang's numbers, they've never reported them.
00:37:04.559 --> 00:37:06.079
So correct.
00:37:06.159 --> 00:37:10.559
The numbers I have, they gave me a number of total sales in that.
00:37:10.639 --> 00:37:15.519
So so you might be right, but I'm gonna go in the order that that I have going backwards.
00:37:15.840 --> 00:37:21.920
Number six, you have Halo, it's Diablo at total lifetime sales between five and six billion dollars.
00:37:22.719 --> 00:37:26.960
At number five, you have Halo, which is about six billion.
00:37:27.039 --> 00:37:29.119
So I think, like you said, interchangeable.
00:37:29.760 --> 00:37:34.719
Number four at eight to ten billion dollars is Minecraft.
00:37:36.320 --> 00:37:36.800
Questionable.
00:37:36.880 --> 00:37:40.000
I know there's a lot of free Minecraft out there too, so you it's tough.
00:37:40.559 --> 00:37:48.000
Number three, which you have call of duty, is World of Warcraft, also at 10 billion.
00:37:48.320 --> 00:37:52.960
There should probably just be Warcraft, but I'm sure the rest of Warcraft made zero compared to World of Warcraft.
00:37:53.280 --> 00:37:58.000
Number two is Candy Crush at$20 billion made.
00:37:58.320 --> 00:38:03.599
And number one is Call of Duty at$30 billion lifetime sales.
00:38:04.000 --> 00:38:08.480
So those are your top six IPs owned by Microsoft.
00:38:10.239 --> 00:38:10.800
Disagreeing?
00:38:11.119 --> 00:38:12.639
Oh, I mean, I disagree.
00:38:12.719 --> 00:38:16.480
So if like let's what's the cost of Minecraft um these days?
00:38:17.039 --> 00:38:21.199
I'd assume it ranges from$4.99 to$29.99.
00:38:25.519 --> 00:38:30.400
Let me know if Minecraft do you agree or disagree with those numbers here?
00:38:30.960 --> 00:38:33.199
$29.99 on most platforms.
00:38:37.039 --> 00:38:43.280
So in theory, um actually, hold on.
00:38:45.760 --> 00:38:46.719
300 million.
00:38:46.800 --> 00:38:47.760
I was gonna do it.
00:38:50.880 --> 00:38:58.159
Okay, so in lifetime sales alone, based on reported numbers from Minecraft, like it at least has sold nine billion uh dollars in value.
00:38:58.400 --> 00:38:59.920
Never mind anything else it's made.
00:39:00.079 --> 00:39:02.880
Um across merchandise and everything else.
00:39:03.119 --> 00:39:04.559
I disagree.
00:39:04.719 --> 00:39:05.840
Minecraft's number one.
00:39:06.400 --> 00:39:07.599
All right, I mean it's fair.
00:39:07.679 --> 00:39:09.840
I'm going purely off of my AI.
00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:20.079
I know, but I I and in my mind, the the the the three easiest, biggest IP that they own is COD, King, and Candy Crush, and and Minecraft.
00:39:20.159 --> 00:39:22.559
That's like the you know, you can interchange them.
00:39:22.719 --> 00:39:25.760
I I think COD is a one-market game or western market game.
00:39:25.840 --> 00:39:26.639
That's its challenge.
00:39:26.800 --> 00:39:28.480
Um, very big in the West.
00:39:29.119 --> 00:39:29.840
That's it.
00:39:30.000 --> 00:39:34.320
Um, the other ones are more global in their nature and thus make more money.
00:39:34.559 --> 00:39:37.920
Um, but yeah, um, that's interesting.
00:39:38.239 --> 00:39:39.440
I want to play another game.
00:39:39.519 --> 00:39:41.679
I know I'm dropping two on you here at once, right?
00:39:41.760 --> 00:39:44.400
But these are the six IPs that Microsoft owns.
00:39:44.480 --> 00:39:49.599
And I'm curious which ones you think would potentially give it a lifeline here.
00:39:49.840 --> 00:39:56.480
All right, and I don't know how to play this game, so I'm just gonna name the game and you tell me invest in it or don't invest in it, okay?
00:39:57.199 --> 00:39:58.960
Banjo Kazooie.
00:40:00.320 --> 00:40:01.679
Okay, keep going.
00:40:02.079 --> 00:40:03.679
I mean, am I supposed to answer that?
00:40:03.760 --> 00:40:13.840
Like, I don't, yeah, say thumbs up, you like the idea of investing in or don't, because you know there's a lot of diehard banjo Kazooie fans, but I also don't think there's as many Banjo Kazooie fans.
00:40:14.079 --> 00:40:17.199
No, that means I'll be real, they should sell that to Nintendo.
00:40:17.519 --> 00:40:21.679
If they are looking for money to make up some of the losses, I should sell that IP to Nintendo.
00:40:22.239 --> 00:40:23.679
This is an upsetting one, right?
00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:25.840
Because it was here, but perfect dark.
00:40:29.679 --> 00:40:33.119
I would try to make that into a game.
00:40:33.280 --> 00:40:34.320
I wouldn't sell.
00:40:34.480 --> 00:40:36.559
Um, would it find an audience?
00:40:36.960 --> 00:40:37.679
Who knows?
00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:38.639
But they should try.
00:40:38.719 --> 00:40:43.199
That is a that is a good investable rebirth of IP, they should like at least think about.
00:40:43.440 --> 00:40:44.159
That's my take.
00:40:44.639 --> 00:40:45.280
Conquer.
00:40:46.960 --> 00:40:48.559
Like bad fur day conquer?
00:40:48.719 --> 00:40:49.760
Yeah, like bad fur day.
00:40:50.960 --> 00:40:54.400
Again, I want sell to Nintendo.
00:40:55.679 --> 00:40:56.239
Package deal.
00:40:58.079 --> 00:40:58.800
Package deal.
00:40:59.039 --> 00:41:01.760
Like Nintendo would buy maybe Banjo Kazooie.
00:41:02.079 --> 00:41:07.119
Like, because that is actually I may but conquer bat, no, sell to Nintendo.
00:41:07.760 --> 00:41:09.039
Guitar Hero.
00:41:11.440 --> 00:41:12.559
Let that one die.
00:41:12.800 --> 00:41:13.840
It's time has passed.
00:41:14.239 --> 00:41:15.280
Let that time has passed.
00:41:15.360 --> 00:41:16.000
Yeah, they've tried.
00:41:16.719 --> 00:41:18.159
It's due for a comeback.
00:41:18.400 --> 00:41:20.000
Ah, they've tried that too.
00:41:20.320 --> 00:41:21.440
Oh, come on.
00:41:21.599 --> 00:41:22.079
Let's see.
00:41:22.159 --> 00:41:26.000
We have Battle Chick here who agrees that Minecraft should be number one.
00:41:26.400 --> 00:41:31.360
We will call, we will contact Anthropic after this and let them know their data is incorrect.
00:41:31.519 --> 00:41:35.119
But uh, but Colin agrees with you, so I'm gonna take that as your right.
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:37.039
Minecraft will be number one.
00:41:37.280 --> 00:41:39.679
Here's the one I think will really save it here.
00:41:39.840 --> 00:41:43.360
Not really save it, but do a lot of great StarCraft.
00:41:44.000 --> 00:41:45.360
They should invest in that.
00:41:45.519 --> 00:41:46.719
That's a no-brainer.
00:41:47.039 --> 00:41:52.639
They should um, you know, reportedly, um, there's more StarCraft to come anyways.
00:41:52.800 --> 00:42:02.079
So we are we are beyond that one, but I will say that um that is a smart decision, um, especially for their APAC audiences.
00:42:02.159 --> 00:42:04.559
So, you might in North America say nobody cares about Starcraft.
00:42:04.639 --> 00:42:10.400
I'll tell you what, Korea definitely cares about Starcraft, so you should invest in it to broaden your market reach into Asia.
00:42:10.559 --> 00:42:11.360
That is very popular.
00:42:11.519 --> 00:42:12.400
IP in Asia.
00:42:12.719 --> 00:42:19.360
I am going to use this cool feature called Show where I can show that Battle Chick wants Guitar Hero back.
00:42:19.679 --> 00:42:20.960
Um I agree, man.
00:42:21.039 --> 00:42:22.880
Those are these party music games, man.
00:42:22.960 --> 00:42:32.960
We used to wake up my college roommate at like seven o'clock in the morning because we'd be singing I Will Always Love You at the top of my lungs from uh this was rock band at the time, but we need these party games back.
00:42:33.039 --> 00:42:37.599
I think it's gonna help with uh the social aspect and community aspect of in-person gaming.
00:42:37.679 --> 00:42:40.800
I think these types of things are are huge, and I'm for that.
00:42:41.119 --> 00:42:46.400
I have one last one for you that's probably never gonna get come back based on all the news, but dishonored.
00:42:46.719 --> 00:42:50.239
Oh yeah, no, that one's that one they shouldn't focus on that one.
00:42:50.320 --> 00:42:54.000
And so, like, with we'll call it the guitar hero.
00:42:54.239 --> 00:42:59.920
I mean, unless it's Nintendo, there's no world in which Banders or Kazooie comes back, in my opinion.
00:43:00.000 --> 00:43:04.960
Like, there's just like um there's no there's no point um to be this honest about it.
00:43:05.039 --> 00:43:08.559
There's the opportunity, like it boils down to the opportunity cost of stuff, right?
00:43:08.719 --> 00:43:19.199
So um gosh, I I know um oh the mascot from PlayStation that was you know, um kind of oh my god, the Activision made him license for him.
00:43:19.280 --> 00:43:21.360
Um not that conjecture.
00:43:21.519 --> 00:43:24.079
The other one, uh no, yeah, not that conjecture.
00:43:24.239 --> 00:43:25.760
Uh yeah, it's on the tip of my tongue.
00:43:25.840 --> 00:43:28.639
Um I know it looks like yeah.
00:43:28.880 --> 00:43:30.320
Um let me look.
00:43:30.480 --> 00:43:34.639
Ah man, I'm gonna get roasted on the internet for not reading this off the top of my head, but there you go.
00:43:38.719 --> 00:43:40.480
It's gonna it's gonna break my brain.
00:43:40.559 --> 00:43:41.840
It's gonna be the first one that comes up.
00:43:41.920 --> 00:43:43.599
Um oh crash bandicoot.
00:43:43.679 --> 00:43:43.920
Yeah.
00:43:44.079 --> 00:43:48.639
So when they made the last brash cranic, um, I think it's about time, was the last one, right?
00:43:49.039 --> 00:43:54.559
It did okay, but like the opportunity cost was they could have made more cod cod and everything else, right?
00:43:54.639 --> 00:43:59.679
So it's like these games are not reaching, like it's it's the why make a million when.
00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:03.760
Can make a billion dollars, which is the fundamental problem that they face right now at Microsoft.
00:44:03.840 --> 00:44:11.119
It's like, why are we making all these games that are distracting us when the bigger games we have, the bigger IP is gonna make us billions, when these games are gonna make us millions?
00:44:11.199 --> 00:44:14.639
And that's that's what happens when you own these like massive IP.
00:44:14.719 --> 00:44:22.719
Like your focus should be on the biggest and most monetizable ones, even if that suffocates and brings down new IP, but that's kind of inevitably what happens.
00:44:22.880 --> 00:44:36.480
And so it's why selling them off and giving them a chance outside makes a lot of sense, or like, you know, because Microsoft's never gonna do right by them because Microsoft, as a company, fiduciary duty, should focus on the ones that are gonna make a billion dollars out of million dollars.
00:44:36.559 --> 00:44:38.079
They're not in the business to make a million dollars.
00:44:38.239 --> 00:44:39.840
That's a great business for a lot of other people.
00:44:39.920 --> 00:44:42.559
That's not the business Microsoft's in, they're in the business to make a billion.
00:44:42.639 --> 00:44:49.760
So back to like the mascot characters, sell to Nintendo or partner with Nintendo and make them for them and publish them on Nintendo or something like that, right?
00:44:49.920 --> 00:44:56.639
That like so like there's a world in which I can see a dishonored, you know, license the IP outwards to have somebody else make it and just take a cut.
00:44:56.719 --> 00:45:02.079
Like, you know, make it exclusive of Xbox or don't, but like here's you want to come to us, you want to take the license.
00:45:02.320 --> 00:45:08.960
We can license you the license, make a deal on that, let somebody else make the game and then just not be distracted by it, right?
00:45:09.360 --> 00:45:17.840
That that model could make sense, but Xbox as a company and its subsidiary should focus on their major IPs and just kind of go at them.
00:45:18.159 --> 00:45:19.519
Yeah, I think that's well said.
00:45:19.599 --> 00:45:24.320
I think it it would seem like a perfect harmony for them to sell the IP at a banjo kazooe.
00:45:24.400 --> 00:45:26.639
It seemed like it would be win-win-win for everyone, right?
00:45:26.719 --> 00:45:30.079
Uh, you get Microsoft to get rid of an IP, they get to make some money on it.
00:45:30.159 --> 00:45:36.079
Gamers have been wanting this, and most gamers that want banjo, there's a good chance they own a Switch or they own something like that.
00:45:36.159 --> 00:45:41.840
It seems like the perfect platform for I mean, that's what anyone thinks back to banjo Kazooie, they think in the N64 anyway, right?
00:45:41.920 --> 00:45:43.280
So it's a no-brainer.
00:45:43.599 --> 00:45:44.719
He's in Smash.
00:45:44.880 --> 00:45:50.800
Like it's like um, so yeah, this should go to Nintendo if they wanted it, right?
00:45:50.960 --> 00:46:03.039
Because like Nintendo, like in this example, their business is very much catered to families and to mascots and to kind of games that don't have to make a billion dollars for their PL to be a fine success.
00:46:03.119 --> 00:46:03.920
See Kirby.
00:46:04.079 --> 00:46:06.480
Kirby's not a global iconic brand.
00:46:06.639 --> 00:46:09.360
Um, in most companies, nobody would make Kirby games anymore.
00:46:09.440 --> 00:46:14.719
But Nintendo, bless them, put a kart racer out of Kirby in the same year they put out Mario Kart.
00:46:14.800 --> 00:46:15.280
You know what?
00:46:15.440 --> 00:46:18.320
Probably did just fine because they make low-cost games.
00:46:18.480 --> 00:46:21.519
They're okay as a company with making some money, right?
00:46:21.599 --> 00:46:23.760
They don't have to make a hundred million dollars on every game.
00:46:23.840 --> 00:46:31.519
They have their temple IP for that, but like they're okay with putting out games that do that reach different audiences because their business is fundamentally different, and that's fine.
00:46:31.599 --> 00:46:44.239
Like, there's not, you know, I'm not saying one's better than the other, although I would argue Nintendo's model is better, but like, you know, at the end of the day, you know, both businesses can coexist because they're getting at different parts of the like the gamer ecosystem, lack of a better word for it, right?
00:46:45.360 --> 00:46:49.280
Any other comments on Microsoft before we shift this conversation?
00:46:49.519 --> 00:46:52.400
Um, no, I mean, what else is there to say?
00:46:52.480 --> 00:46:53.280
Oh, blame pie.
00:46:53.599 --> 00:47:07.840
Yeah, I think um I've been on a few things this week, and I'll say this, and this has maybe been lost in my conversations, probably get lost here, but I think the end we should give a at least 50% of the blame pie to Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft.
00:47:08.000 --> 00:47:08.400
Why?
00:47:08.719 --> 00:47:22.400
Because you had a son, in like a few metaphorical son, spending like a like a wayward college grad not knowing what to do with their lives, lighting money on fire as they kind of went from one thing to another thing, distracted, not guided.
00:47:22.480 --> 00:47:34.880
And you as the parent were like, I'm more focused on building out Azure, I'm more focused on enterprise software business, I'm more focused on creating teams so we can squash out Slack.
00:47:34.960 --> 00:47:37.920
I didn't pay enough attention to my you know wayward son.
00:47:38.000 --> 00:47:48.320
And when the bill comes due, had that person given them the guidance, had they wrapped their arms around him and said, No, this is how you business, this is what our vision is, and not been kind of told by the son, like, oh, don't worry, Dad.
00:47:48.400 --> 00:47:54.320
If you just give me another 69 million billion dollars, I'll fix the whole problem by building this better, this better thing over here.
00:47:54.400 --> 00:47:57.679
Just front me some cash, like this wouldn't have happened.
00:47:57.840 --> 00:48:02.000
So, like, this guy's totally escaped any criticism.
00:48:02.079 --> 00:48:03.199
And I'm like, why?
00:48:03.360 --> 00:48:14.000
It's a pretty big deal when the CEO of a company spent like two years trying to buy a massive company in of itself, an Activision Blizzard, to then basically like begin to just basically admit that this was a waste of our time.
00:48:14.079 --> 00:48:27.519
Like shareholders in Microsoft should be like pulling their hair out, like because I mean, and they are because their stock is down like 40%, so it's happened, but like this guy deserves some blame, like clearly, some blame because it this at best was negligence.
00:48:27.840 --> 00:48:30.880
I think Microsoft's stock is at an all-time high right now.
00:48:31.119 --> 00:48:32.000
It is not.
00:48:32.239 --> 00:48:33.039
What is that?
00:48:33.199 --> 00:48:38.559
380 points, not at all, not a high, but but not low by any means.
00:48:39.039 --> 00:48:43.440
Um, I think the problem with Phil was that he was a player coach.
00:48:43.599 --> 00:48:47.599
No one's upset when they have a player coach because everyone has happy morale.
00:48:47.840 --> 00:48:53.840
Phil wasn't putting a crunch time on anyone, he wasn't putting out any mandates that you must make this, you must make that.
00:48:54.000 --> 00:48:58.400
And it's easy to look at the grass as greener on the other side of things when we know what the outcome is, right?
00:48:58.480 --> 00:49:01.119
We often hear that too much oversight.
00:49:01.280 --> 00:49:03.840
You have was it no one embracer?
00:49:04.000 --> 00:49:05.599
What was the other one that fell apart?
00:49:05.760 --> 00:49:20.000
Um, too much oversight kills your creativity, it it ruins kind of the output that you have, but not enough oversight lets you sit on your laurels, just kind of wait things out and things get pushed and things get delayed.
00:49:20.079 --> 00:49:22.639
And I think I think Phil is a great player's coach.
00:49:22.719 --> 00:49:27.519
And I think you go ask anyone at Microsoft if they liked Phil and they would they would take bullets for him.
00:49:27.679 --> 00:49:29.039
Maybe no one above him, right?
00:49:29.199 --> 00:49:31.360
But everyone there because he would protect everyone.
00:49:31.599 --> 00:49:38.159
The problem is when you needed to say, hey, we need perfect dark out by the end of 2024, right?
00:49:38.320 --> 00:49:40.559
Or when Fallout should have been in creation, right?
00:49:40.639 --> 00:49:42.719
When the first season was being created.
00:49:42.960 --> 00:49:50.159
And he doesn't have, and I don't know what it was, maybe he just didn't have the guts to go to Todd Howard and be like, this needs to happen by now.
00:49:50.400 --> 00:49:57.920
And maybe he didn't want to make those enemies, but I think you have a player's coach that it's unfortunate because people love him, but you're not getting the outcome you want.
00:49:58.000 --> 00:49:59.920
And at some point, you need to have that split.
00:50:00.000 --> 00:50:05.519
Uh, I still think Game Pass makes sense, and it comes down to the ads-based platform that you talked about that no one wants to have.
00:50:05.599 --> 00:50:12.239
And I think once they implement something like that, as long as the users are there, it makes a ton of sense, it makes a ton of money, and people are happy.
00:50:12.559 --> 00:50:14.800
But I don't know if we get that far.
00:50:15.039 --> 00:50:16.559
Well, let me correct you on one.
00:50:16.800 --> 00:50:19.360
In the last uh year, their stock is down 24%.
00:50:19.760 --> 00:50:21.840
So um not killing it at Microsoft right now.
00:50:22.320 --> 00:50:23.440
40% down now.
00:50:23.920 --> 00:50:28.559
Um, I saw that number elsewhere, and they must be looking back further, like five years or something like that.
00:50:28.639 --> 00:50:29.679
Like, but I digress.
00:50:29.760 --> 00:50:36.880
I mean, like, because the stock went up because AI and it's going down because AI, but um, that goes back to my whole theory about them existential uh risk with Microsoft.
00:50:37.039 --> 00:50:39.519
Um, but yeah, um down.
00:50:40.079 --> 00:50:41.599
Um, so they are being punished.
00:50:41.760 --> 00:50:43.280
Distraction, that's what gaming is.
00:50:43.360 --> 00:50:49.039
Although the stock did go up after the layoffs were down, so the market always loves a good layoff round, um, unfortunately.
00:50:49.199 --> 00:50:50.000
But yeah.
00:50:50.239 --> 00:50:52.320
Um, that's all I have on Microsoft, though.
00:50:52.400 --> 00:50:55.519
I think like at the end of the day, they gotta they gotta fix their business.
00:50:55.679 --> 00:51:04.159
Um they I think um I think they've you know Asha has had her chance to uh you know had her crack at it.
00:51:04.239 --> 00:51:06.800
I don't think you can go back to well and do this kind of cut again.
00:51:06.960 --> 00:51:12.639
So she had the she had the permission to do something drastic.
00:51:12.960 --> 00:51:14.719
She's now done the drastic thing.
00:51:14.880 --> 00:51:17.199
Now what comes next falls under plate, right?
00:51:17.440 --> 00:51:33.440
Um, and I will say the the PR campaign of some kind, because it's not nothing, to if you were to drive the bus over a fill, you could not have come up with a better story than that we stole from Minecraft and that the green lit avowed to over a fallout game.
00:51:33.519 --> 00:51:37.440
Like, I mean, quite a bus to kind of put on someone, right?
00:51:37.599 --> 00:51:40.559
And so, but you can't do that forever because now it's your problem.
00:51:40.800 --> 00:51:42.960
So um you've done what you've done.
00:51:43.039 --> 00:51:46.639
You've you blame the former GM if you're a sports person, sports ball.
00:51:46.719 --> 00:51:48.880
I am you went this GM was the problem.
00:51:49.039 --> 00:51:51.840
I am now of course correcting all these GM's mistakes.
00:51:52.079 --> 00:51:52.480
Great.
00:51:52.639 --> 00:51:55.039
Now the fan base is gonna be like, now what are you gonna do?
00:51:55.119 --> 00:51:57.119
So that's what that's the crossroads they're at now.
00:51:57.199 --> 00:51:58.320
What are they gonna do now?
00:51:58.719 --> 00:52:03.920
All right, let's let's debate a little more, but let's talk about discovery.
00:52:04.000 --> 00:52:10.960
Because in the past few hours, you and I found a new place we can debate, which is discovery.
00:52:11.199 --> 00:52:12.400
No, we're friends.
00:52:12.559 --> 00:52:12.960
It's all right.
00:52:13.360 --> 00:52:15.440
Although this AI image, can we debate the AI?
00:52:15.519 --> 00:52:19.679
Like, can I ask you your your what your prompt is to get me to look like I do?
00:52:20.000 --> 00:52:22.639
I said this Colin is not happy with his teeth.
00:52:22.800 --> 00:52:24.000
Can you fix it?
00:52:24.400 --> 00:52:25.679
Is that a valid prompt?
00:52:25.760 --> 00:52:27.199
That's about how it works, right?
00:52:28.320 --> 00:52:32.880
I think you're just not you're just not going into the uh I just think you're not going enough in the video.
00:52:32.960 --> 00:52:33.920
I smell plenty.
00:52:34.000 --> 00:52:36.239
Uh AI is not gonna make me look any better.
00:52:36.320 --> 00:52:37.039
I look horrible.
00:52:37.119 --> 00:52:39.360
So I don't I asked you for a headshot.
00:52:39.440 --> 00:52:42.480
You send me this like hand-drawn image of a headshot.
00:52:42.639 --> 00:52:44.800
It's like, what the hell do I do with this thing?
00:52:45.039 --> 00:52:51.920
Um, we gotta get more pictures when we're in person, but we never remember pictures until like the very end of it where we're like, oh crap, we gotta take a picture together.
00:52:52.079 --> 00:52:54.639
So uh next time we're together, we'll have to remember to take multiple.
00:52:54.880 --> 00:52:58.400
We'll go for like a Sears photo shoot or something, so we have multiple headshots.
00:52:58.800 --> 00:52:59.440
Oh my gosh.
00:52:59.519 --> 00:53:02.400
Anyways, you're gonna go into Discovery, the next battleground of debate.
00:53:02.639 --> 00:53:06.800
Even though I think the next battleground is obviously the AI headshots, but let's go into the Discovery.
00:53:07.119 --> 00:53:15.360
Let's go with Discovery because Discovery is an issue, and I'm willing to admit it's an issue in the marketplace because new games are coming out all the time and it's very hard to find.
00:53:15.440 --> 00:53:17.039
There's a few places you can find them.
00:53:17.119 --> 00:53:24.800
There's Steam when you log in, there's your Xbox homepage, there's your Sony home, your PS5 homepage, there's TikTok and stuff like that.
00:53:24.880 --> 00:53:26.480
That's where Discovery lives.
00:53:26.719 --> 00:53:36.880
Most players live on the platform that they exist on and some other places, and everyone's been complaining that Discovery needs to be fixed because the smaller games can't be found.
00:53:37.039 --> 00:53:44.239
It's just they're buried in uh below everything else that that's spending money, advertising, getting notability out there.
00:53:44.400 --> 00:53:46.320
So for new games, it's hard to be found.
00:53:46.480 --> 00:53:50.880
And there's a debate to be made about discovery, and I'm gonna go anti-Discovery, right?
00:53:51.039 --> 00:53:56.800
Discovery is not an issue, and I'm happy to go first, but do you want to lay the layer of the stage before we get too deep into it?
00:53:57.360 --> 00:53:59.599
Okay, like my POV on Discovery?
00:53:59.760 --> 00:54:04.719
No, just uh lay the law, like what we're talking about here, and then I'll make my point, then you can make your point.
00:54:04.960 --> 00:54:05.519
Okay, yeah.
00:54:05.599 --> 00:54:09.039
I mean, Discovery in a nutshell is like, I mean, you can't make a problem.
00:54:09.119 --> 00:54:11.119
It's like uh there's so much games coming out.
00:54:11.199 --> 00:54:18.239
Um, a lot of people put a lot of graphs out there that show every single year there's exponentially more games, more choice for consumers than ever before.
00:54:18.480 --> 00:54:23.599
And while a lot of people like to say consumer choice is a good thing, it's not.
00:54:23.679 --> 00:54:28.159
I mean, like consumers typically push back on choice when presented with too much choice, right?
00:54:28.320 --> 00:54:37.199
Um, and so the way around this kind of uh, let's say an advent of so much stuff is you know, has historically been advertising, right?
00:54:37.280 --> 00:54:40.320
So advertising is how you whittle down choice to preferred choice.
00:54:40.400 --> 00:54:47.679
So it's like, oh, yeah, there's an infinite amount of deodorant brands out there, but I'm gonna buy Old Spice because I've decided that I'm an Old Spice person, right?
00:54:47.920 --> 00:54:50.079
In a kind of a very layman example.
00:54:50.159 --> 00:55:00.079
And you know, I'm gonna buy toilet paper, but I am a Charmin guy, or I like Kleenex because I like bathroom tissue, and but no, I'm a Kleenex person, which is actually the brand, right?
00:55:00.320 --> 00:55:03.760
Um, so choice, choice becomes brand, right?
00:55:03.840 --> 00:55:17.760
Um, and games are in this weird spot where every single year there's this more choice, more things to do, and as such, consumers, to my opinion, keep slipping back into the well, my choice is gonna be what I already have, right?
00:55:17.840 --> 00:55:32.400
So I'm comfortable in the warm blanket that is Skyrim, and I know this game is old, but I don't know where to go to play the thing, so I'm just gonna go back to to just like you know, a world in which I wrap my head around or arms around the thing I'm comfortable with, right?
00:55:32.559 --> 00:55:34.159
So that's what I see as the discovery.
00:55:34.239 --> 00:55:42.800
And so, how if everyone wants, you know, I've seen this commentary out there, like you know, to go back to Microsoft, like, oh, why don't all these people that are laid off go out and make new games?
00:55:42.960 --> 00:55:49.760
And I know Jason over Bloomberg, I did a whole YouTube video that's you should link to, it's really interesting where he talks about the challenge with just saying go make an indie game.
00:55:49.840 --> 00:55:52.000
He does like a 20-minute thing on it, great stuff.
00:55:52.159 --> 00:55:53.679
I know Amir talks about this too.
00:55:53.760 --> 00:55:54.639
Shout out to Amir.
00:55:54.719 --> 00:55:55.920
Um, why don't you just make an indie game?
00:55:56.000 --> 00:55:56.960
Well, it's harder than that.
00:55:57.039 --> 00:56:01.760
And like the reason you can't just go make a game is there's no mechanism for your game to be noticed, right?
00:56:01.840 --> 00:56:04.320
Like, you're playing the lottery lottery, basically.
00:56:04.480 --> 00:56:07.679
Like, great for Mecha Chameleon for existing.
00:56:08.400 --> 00:56:11.760
The lesson there is there's a lottery winner every year on Steam.
00:56:11.840 --> 00:56:14.559
Like, some people win the lottery, most people don't.
00:56:14.719 --> 00:56:16.239
That's just a fact.
00:56:16.480 --> 00:56:27.360
Um, and if you think the solution to the gaming industry is expert gaming industry folks should get together to play the lottery, like I think like that's not a real sustainable business model.
00:56:27.440 --> 00:56:33.280
That's actually worse for a lot of people because unfortunately for indie games, is like you know, oftentimes they don't have a publisher.
00:56:33.440 --> 00:56:41.440
Um, oftentimes that publisher would have paid for their lifestyle, their life, their house or kids, or whatever, but now they're risking everything on a lot of ticket.
00:56:41.519 --> 00:56:48.719
Like they're basically either working for free or working for a minimum amount of money to scrape together as they try to put together something that can go out there.
00:56:48.800 --> 00:56:52.159
And like, um, we don't live in a society where everything's paid for.
00:56:52.239 --> 00:56:53.679
Um, you have to go make money.
00:56:53.840 --> 00:57:05.280
Um, so because we live in the world where you gotta go make money, you're putting a lot of risk on your livelihood by just saying, well, I'll work for free for three years until I get the thing out, and then, or you know, as some people in the Roblox say, well, you can make a thing in a day.
00:57:05.360 --> 00:57:10.559
I'm like, okay, okay, you can make a thing in the day, but then sure, like again, you're playing the lotto ticket, right?
00:57:10.719 --> 00:57:12.239
So I don't know.
00:57:12.320 --> 00:57:19.199
Um, the only other way out of that is, well, then why can't a thing that's very specific to a type of gamer exist?
00:57:19.440 --> 00:57:24.239
Um, well, it's because that person can't find the person that would make sense for them to play their game.
00:57:24.400 --> 00:57:38.400
So um, right now they tried to do that by chasing wish lists, by putting themselves out in mega events like Summer Game Fest or Steam Next Fest or whatever it might be, where you have hundreds of thousands of eyeballs staring trying to sift through the sand and you're competing at 700 things.
00:57:38.559 --> 00:57:39.599
That's terrible targeting.
00:57:39.679 --> 00:57:41.280
Like it's not one-to-one, it's one to many.
00:57:41.360 --> 00:57:45.840
And that's a really bad marketing model for things that are inherently so small.
00:57:46.000 --> 00:58:06.480
And so to fix that, you need to fix discovery, which is how does the right piece of content find the right person at the right time, where they're not spending a gajillion dollars, like a better word for, into mass reach campaigns where instead they're finding one-to-one customers and paying a fair price on that, but far more ROI on that than mass market uh advertising.
00:58:06.960 --> 00:58:10.000
My problem with that is uh a couple fold, right?
00:58:10.239 --> 00:58:26.000
The first one being that I said this analogy to you before, but it's like going into the kitchen being like I'm hungry, and you open up the cabinet and it's jammed full of food, and you're just like, there's nothing to eat right now, I'm gonna go get something else.
00:58:26.239 --> 00:58:30.239
There's 19,000 games that got released in 2025 on Steam.
00:58:30.480 --> 00:58:31.440
There's a ton of games.
00:58:31.519 --> 00:58:35.039
And yes, obviously discovery is an issue because it's 19,000 games.
00:58:35.199 --> 00:58:40.159
But if I know X amount of percentage like tower defense games, right?
00:58:40.239 --> 00:58:48.079
And I can target those tower defense games, every one of those percentage that's creating a tower defense game on Steam are going to target that audience.
00:58:48.159 --> 00:58:49.599
And then what does it come down to?
00:58:49.840 --> 00:58:52.800
Who could spend the most amount of money to target that audience?
00:58:52.880 --> 00:59:05.440
And then all of a sudden you come back to the same issue that you're having, saying, all right, well, we have targeting, but now it's coming down to CPM or CPC or some sort of trackable metric where it's uh tracking who's clicking these things.
00:59:05.519 --> 00:59:09.440
And I think no matter what, it comes back down to who's gonna have the most money to spend.
00:59:09.519 --> 00:59:12.960
It's not gonna be the person who's moonlighting after their job building a game.
00:59:13.119 --> 00:59:18.079
It's going to be EA who spun up their new startup studio and is going to be pumping funding.
00:59:18.159 --> 00:59:21.280
And you see games making it out of Discovery phase, right?
00:59:21.360 --> 00:59:26.800
You see the Claire Obscures, you see the blueprints, you see the the mecha chameleons that do make it.
00:59:26.880 --> 00:59:28.000
And it is luck of the draw.
00:59:28.079 --> 00:59:30.239
There's no doubt about it, but everything in this world is luck.
00:59:30.400 --> 00:59:32.480
Facebook's timing was luck of the draw, right?
00:59:32.639 --> 00:59:34.559
MySpace's timing was luck of the draw.
00:59:34.639 --> 00:59:36.719
Like timing makes a big difference in all of this.
00:59:36.960 --> 00:59:39.920
And I don't think you can inherently fix discovery.
00:59:40.000 --> 00:59:47.920
You have to just you have to change what the underlying problem is, and that's that people don't want to quit the games that they're used to.
00:59:48.159 --> 00:59:50.639
I still play Skyrim because it's comfortable.
00:59:50.719 --> 00:59:51.519
I know how it works.
00:59:51.599 --> 00:59:55.199
And I get ads for all the other Skyrim clones that are out there, right?
00:59:55.280 --> 00:59:56.239
But I play Skyrim.
00:59:56.480 --> 01:00:00.079
Or really more potent to me is I play Fortnite because it's something I can pick up.
01:00:00.239 --> 01:00:08.000
There's a lot of other games out there, and Lewis goes into one of these things called friendship hostage, where it's almost like you're held on a game because your friends don't want to change.
01:00:08.159 --> 01:00:13.280
But the underlying problem isn't discovery, it's people's willingness to try new things and move on.
01:00:13.760 --> 01:00:22.239
Um, so you're touching on it, but I I and I I sympathize because I know like you should have um we should bring a guest on one of these times.
01:00:22.320 --> 01:00:26.159
Uh at tech uh would people um would help kind of add this conversation.
01:00:26.239 --> 01:00:29.119
But like I just pulled up, I don't know if it'll show on my screen.
01:00:29.360 --> 01:00:30.320
Um, right there.
01:00:30.480 --> 01:00:31.440
Oh, yes.
01:00:31.679 --> 01:00:33.760
This is on my Instagram feed right now.
01:00:33.920 --> 01:00:36.960
This is a pitching net for my son, basically.
01:00:37.119 --> 01:00:39.119
It knows that I have a kid that plays baseball.
01:00:39.280 --> 01:00:41.360
I don't post on social media ever, right?
01:00:41.519 --> 01:00:42.480
I don't have anything.
01:00:42.559 --> 01:00:46.880
I'm a ghost in terms of existing, other than I just go on and scroll once in a while.
01:00:47.119 --> 01:00:48.239
TikTok's calling me right now.
01:00:48.400 --> 01:00:49.039
You're jealous?
01:00:49.440 --> 01:00:50.320
That's funny.
01:00:51.199 --> 01:00:52.480
But um viral.
01:00:52.719 --> 01:00:55.039
Uh it's called Anytime Baseball Supply.
01:00:55.199 --> 01:00:57.599
So that's what I'm being targeted with on Instagram.
01:00:57.920 --> 01:00:59.679
I'm gonna say they don't have a lot of money.
01:00:59.840 --> 01:01:11.599
I'm gonna say their marketing budget is pretty small, but because Meta is so good at knowing that I could be interested in this pitching net to buy, it is one-to-one targeting me with that.
01:01:11.679 --> 01:01:12.320
And you know what?
01:01:12.480 --> 01:01:13.599
Most people will never see that.
01:01:13.679 --> 01:01:15.119
No, most people don't even know that exists.
01:01:15.199 --> 01:01:18.880
And like, I think your point about the cupboard is apt.
01:01:19.039 --> 01:01:20.719
That's exactly what the consumers have now.
01:01:20.800 --> 01:01:43.280
Now imagine you open up the cupboard, and the cupboard removed everything it knew you didn't want today by just knowing you, and then only put a choice of like four things in front of you based on what your habits are, what you eat that day of the week, what you haven't had in a while, what you're interested in right now, and maybe it knew you what you just came back from a trip to Europe and you're like really into French food all of a sudden.
01:01:43.360 --> 01:01:45.760
And it just shows you that thing in that moment.
01:01:46.000 --> 01:01:47.840
Like, actually, this is what you want, Greg.
01:01:48.079 --> 01:01:51.519
You don't want everything in the cupboard, you just want this because we know you want this, right?
01:01:51.599 --> 01:01:56.159
It's like predictive targeting, and it's like, you're right, I do actually want this.
01:01:56.320 --> 01:01:58.559
Um, I'm just gonna take this out and do the thing.
01:01:58.719 --> 01:02:16.320
That's that's what that's what discovery needs to become, is it needs to become other forms of entertainment, it needs to become like what TikTok is with uh content, it needs to become what YouTube is with content, it needs to become what meta is with ads, which is like just hyper-targeted at the right individual at the right moment with the right thing.
01:02:16.480 --> 01:02:29.920
That's it, and that path is there because that technology does exist, and that's but to get there, got to hear back to our conversation before, you have to build an ad engine because that pays for the massive investment it will take to build that kind of engine.
01:02:30.000 --> 01:02:32.719
It's paid for by ads, it's always been paid for by ads.
01:02:32.880 --> 01:02:39.599
Um and and the outcome is I get to be the small baseball shop.
01:02:39.679 --> 01:02:47.039
I got targeted by a person with a that does like um does baseball glove um uh breaking, uh breaking in online.
01:02:47.199 --> 01:02:52.880
And he's like, I'm a small business out of Kansas, and my business is I break in little kids' baseball gloves, and I'm the best at it.
01:02:52.960 --> 01:02:53.679
And you know what I did?
01:02:53.840 --> 01:02:55.920
I bought a little league baseball glove because my son had an upgrade.
01:02:56.159 --> 01:02:56.719
Like, you know what?
01:02:56.960 --> 01:02:58.880
Good for you, small business in Kansas.
01:02:59.039 --> 01:02:59.760
I'm gonna buy it.
01:03:00.000 --> 01:03:13.440
Had this ecosystem not existed, that person's shop would have been so local and so specific to the region, like I never knew they existed, but now they can exist and sell to me in California because the infrastructure exists for them to exist.
01:03:14.159 --> 01:03:18.639
I am so curious, and everything you said makes sense.
01:03:18.719 --> 01:03:21.360
And Justin is here and he knows this better than me, right?
01:03:21.440 --> 01:03:23.119
He's saying Google is good at this too.
01:03:23.280 --> 01:03:25.599
I just love this new feature, I'm gonna keep doing it.
01:03:25.760 --> 01:03:29.840
But it's Ruiz, wear the linen suit.
01:03:29.920 --> 01:03:33.199
Just just bite the bullet, go in the city, wear the linen suit.
01:03:33.679 --> 01:03:38.559
Your point about a baseball mitt was a good one because that's not a cheap piece of equipment.
01:03:38.719 --> 01:03:51.360
But I'm thinking to myself, is the are there enough people playing Xbox where if you show me a random tower defense game, I'm gonna download that off after the major tower defense game that's coming out.
01:03:51.440 --> 01:03:52.480
The same thing with the cupboard.
01:03:52.559 --> 01:03:58.159
That's the question is when I open that cupboard and it's gonna give me those four choices that make the most sense to you.
01:03:58.320 --> 01:04:04.079
Is it going to be the choices that I really want, or is it gonna be the choices that someone paid for to come up to me, right?
01:04:04.159 --> 01:04:08.320
And then at that point, it comes and adds it's actually it's actually the same thing.
01:04:08.480 --> 01:04:16.000
If they're paying for it to be in front of you, uh inherently they'll judge whether it's the right thing, right?
01:04:16.159 --> 01:04:20.320
So, like advertisers only put money into ecosystems.
01:04:20.400 --> 01:04:36.639
Like, let's remove big brands because like you when people think of advertising, they always think of beer, cars, um, you know, deodorant brands, because they do brand advertising, which is they put a lot of money out in mass like mass eyeball places so they can build brands.
01:04:36.719 --> 01:04:42.960
So when I go to the grocery store, it pops in my mind that I should buy this, like you know, branded deodorant or this type of soda or whatever, right?
01:04:43.039 --> 01:04:48.159
So remove them on the side because that's not that the business is very different than SMB, which is small medium businesses.
01:04:48.320 --> 01:04:50.400
Their business is mom pop shops.
01:04:50.719 --> 01:04:55.599
I have five thousand dollars in my entire annual marketing budget.
01:04:55.840 --> 01:05:00.000
I need to sell stuff like directly if this is gonna make sense to me.
01:05:00.159 --> 01:05:10.000
And what they do is they test it, and like not everyone buys something, but enough of them buy it where the ROI is higher than buying a local newspaper ad or whatever they do, right?
01:05:10.079 --> 01:05:11.199
Or going on radio.
01:05:11.280 --> 01:05:14.559
Like, I my family owns an SMB, so I could speak directly to this.
01:05:14.639 --> 01:05:19.280
Like, it's more profitable to put that money in digital because you're getting a higher return on investment.
01:05:19.519 --> 01:05:30.400
So for you as the person, you don't have to buy the game, but enough of those people will buy that game that it makes it profitable for that small business to keep putting money into that engine, and that's how a flywheel begins.
01:05:30.480 --> 01:05:39.679
And then eventually everyone has so hyper-personalized feeds of content they could consume that is perfect for them because the targeting just knows.
01:05:39.840 --> 01:05:44.320
I hate to be like the targeting knows, but I'm telling you, the targeting just knows, it gets so good, it just knows, right?
01:05:44.480 --> 01:05:47.280
Um, and people think it spies on you, that's not what it does.
01:05:47.440 --> 01:05:57.519
Um, I we could do a whole other episode on like how these engines are actually built, because I know, but I worked in them, but like basically it just knows, like it just knows it's it's a fact of life.
01:05:57.599 --> 01:05:59.360
There's no regulation of just make it not know.
01:05:59.519 --> 01:05:59.840
It just knows.
01:06:00.239 --> 01:06:00.559
Right.
01:06:00.800 --> 01:06:08.079
Um, and that's the that's the equal that that's the utopia for um for like SMB gaming, right?
01:06:08.400 --> 01:06:19.679
All these indique people could exist if there was the infrastructure for SMB advertising to exist, but right now it doesn't, and what they do to proxy that is they just go buy Twitch streamers, which is really expensive.
01:06:19.840 --> 01:06:21.119
It doesn't scale, right?
01:06:21.280 --> 01:06:25.840
Or they go to outside platforms like TikTok and hope that they get viral and they pull them back in.
01:06:25.920 --> 01:06:32.320
But the UA from a social platform into a game to then download it inside that ecosystem is not great.
01:06:32.400 --> 01:06:34.719
Like, but it exists in mobile too.
01:06:34.800 --> 01:06:36.639
This is Apple of its entire business, man.
01:06:36.719 --> 01:06:53.599
They they're very, very good company who has taken their reins in a post-ATT world to kind of bottleneck the value exchange, and so they're taking a lot of money on the UA budgets of mobile companies because there's no other way for them to get noticed in the ecosystems because of Apple's doings or undoings.
01:06:54.079 --> 01:06:59.840
And they're, you know, and what I'm suggesting is not to have this weird throttle from an outside party.
01:07:00.000 --> 01:07:13.599
I'm asking the actual storefront of Microsoft to embrace being an aggregator and be more like a meta or YouTube and less of an Apple as it relates to kind of its mobile app ecosystem and embrace kind of targeting, right?
01:07:13.679 --> 01:07:17.679
And like, yeah, we'll help you get discovered because in inevitably it helps us.
01:07:17.760 --> 01:07:19.760
You buy the game, we take a revenue cut.
01:07:19.920 --> 01:07:30.800
Um, you sell something in your game, we take a revenue cut, like it actually helps us make money too, but also it but it builds a healthier ecosystem for for and grows our town, which is what we need to do as an industry.
01:07:30.880 --> 01:07:55.760
So, but discovery is such a critical component of this that has to get fixed, or we're going to continue down the path of big companies slicing off more like shots at the moon to do something new because what's gonna happen is they're gonna have to keep making the same same 20 IP over and over again because Discovery's so hard that they can't break through with even brand money into the kind of attention economy to get themselves noticed.
01:07:56.000 --> 01:08:08.079
They're gonna have to keep remaking Resident Evil, which is not bad business, but that's what's gonna happen, or making more Zeldas, or making just the core 20 to 30 gaming IP are out there, and like I don't want that feature, I want new things to exist.
01:08:08.239 --> 01:08:14.320
But to make things things to exist to new things to exist that make economic sense, you have to fix Discovery.
01:08:14.480 --> 01:08:17.760
And bless Valve, I don't believe what they're doing is gonna fix it at all.
01:08:17.840 --> 01:08:19.520
It's gotta come from ads.
01:08:20.159 --> 01:08:20.800
Interesting.
01:08:20.960 --> 01:08:24.000
I still don't agree with you, and I'm curious on what others think.
01:08:24.159 --> 01:08:25.520
I mean, I know discovery is an issue.
01:08:28.479 --> 01:08:30.880
He does agree with you, and that's upsetting to me.
01:08:30.960 --> 01:08:32.319
He's the party's off.
01:08:32.560 --> 01:08:39.279
Um, but yeah, I don't know because the barbershop he put so there's this barbershop example he put, right?
01:08:39.359 --> 01:08:45.840
So it's saying Google and Meta are so big because they cater to every small business that put barbershops near me, it's gonna show the barbershops near me.
01:08:46.000 --> 01:08:51.119
But I don't feel like a gamer's workflow is like that.
01:08:51.279 --> 01:08:52.960
I that's not how I download a game.
01:08:53.039 --> 01:09:01.199
Even if you were to put the best Game Pass game in front of me, if it's not a triple-A title or a double-A title that uh that we've spoken about, right?
01:09:01.359 --> 01:09:03.199
Uh it's not something that's top of mind for me.
01:09:03.520 --> 01:09:05.600
Yeah, you got a creative test, you got a concept.
01:09:05.680 --> 01:09:08.159
I there's lots of things that go into good ad targeting.
01:09:08.319 --> 01:09:15.600
Like um, Meta, I recently announced their new kind of creative AI, and like I know people are clowning in the market, like, oh, they're trying to be like cloud design.
01:09:15.760 --> 01:09:16.479
Like, no, no, no.
01:09:16.640 --> 01:09:21.840
They're trying to literally my parents go back to my parents and their and their SMB business, right?
01:09:22.479 --> 01:09:24.399
They are not good at creator, creating.
01:09:24.479 --> 01:09:30.159
Like, but in the olden days, they would have to create their own ads or hire a creative person to go to Photoshop and design something that they like, right?
01:09:30.239 --> 01:09:32.239
But they don't even know if that's gonna actually work, right?
01:09:32.319 --> 01:09:34.479
Like, uh, there's our logo here.
01:09:34.800 --> 01:09:36.960
We think it looks nice, we improve it.
01:09:37.119 --> 01:09:39.680
Like the future, which is where it's going very quickly.
01:09:39.760 --> 01:09:52.640
It's actually you type your business name in, you give it the assets that make up your business, and the engine tries a thousand to a hundred thousand different concepts to different people, learns which ones worked.
01:09:52.800 --> 01:09:54.319
Not a human at any point.
01:09:54.399 --> 01:09:56.960
You just other than here's the assets, run with it.
01:09:57.119 --> 01:10:04.319
It just does hundreds of thousands of creatives against hundreds of thousands of data signals, and they find the right one for the right people and then leans into that.
01:10:04.399 --> 01:10:20.800
And like the N SMB person who is not an ad person who doesn't know what looks good to how to reach people, they're just guessing because that's the best they could do, is able to unlock so much value that didn't exist before because this giant AI thing exists behind the scenes at Meta, which is literally what they're doing, and it's gonna make them a lot of money.
01:10:20.880 --> 01:10:24.479
By the way, meta a buy stock, buy stock, Justin, buy, buy, buy.
01:10:24.560 --> 01:10:28.079
If you want me out, buy, hit the buy button, they're gonna make a lot of money.
01:10:28.239 --> 01:10:31.760
Um, and it's just a matter of positioning and market with them.
01:10:31.840 --> 01:10:33.279
But I digress, like that.
01:10:33.359 --> 01:10:37.920
This is this, but for gaming, like again, I imagine you load up your box.
01:10:38.159 --> 01:10:46.079
If you're on free game pass, you're gonna watch an ad, like, okay, it's gonna show you some version of the game that you might be interested in.
01:10:46.159 --> 01:10:53.199
It's gonna cut through some of the creative, maybe some of the video, like, and it's gonna learn that what moves this type of person to play this game is these things.
01:10:53.279 --> 01:10:55.520
And I think Greg is the kind of person that's gonna play this game.
01:10:55.680 --> 01:11:02.560
You fix discovery, like boom, because all they do is like, here's some gameplay footage, this is what our game is, here's the gameplay loops.
01:11:02.800 --> 01:11:08.640
You run it Xbox ad engine, and it just goes, and it does, and it puts the right person in the right game.
01:11:09.119 --> 01:11:18.479
All right, and it's better than having a Twitch streamer play it for two hours at the price of 250 to half a million dollars per per session among your content creators.
01:11:18.560 --> 01:11:20.079
Like, people don't have that money, man.
01:11:20.560 --> 01:11:22.399
Colin and I will play your game for less.
01:11:22.560 --> 01:11:26.079
If you have a game that you're willing to pitch, we will we will play it for less.
01:11:26.239 --> 01:11:29.439
Uh, it's just gotta be cross-platform, Xbox to PlayStation.
01:11:29.840 --> 01:11:32.239
Um, Colin, we've been here for an hour and 10 minutes.
01:11:32.319 --> 01:11:34.239
This is a long longer one.
01:11:34.560 --> 01:11:36.800
Let us know where we can find you.
01:11:37.359 --> 01:11:38.800
I am on LinkedIn.
01:11:38.960 --> 01:11:40.560
I do patch notes every week.
01:11:40.640 --> 01:11:41.760
You can find me on SubSac.
01:11:41.920 --> 01:11:44.960
You can find me on Greg's website, you can find me here every week.
01:11:45.119 --> 01:11:46.640
Um, you can find me.
01:11:46.800 --> 01:11:48.560
Um, I don't know where else.
01:11:48.640 --> 01:11:51.439
I'm in if you see me at gaming events, I'm I'm there sometimes too.
01:11:51.520 --> 01:11:53.199
Uh especially when they're on the West Coast.
01:11:53.279 --> 01:11:54.000
That's easy for me.
01:11:54.079 --> 01:11:55.600
The best coast is the West Coast.
01:11:55.680 --> 01:11:59.279
Um, but yeah, um, yeah, that's where you find me, man.
01:11:59.520 --> 01:12:03.199
For those of you in the New York area, games for change is in two weeks.
01:12:03.279 --> 01:12:05.199
It's on the 21st, so come check it out.
01:12:05.279 --> 01:12:05.760
I'll be there.
01:12:05.920 --> 01:12:07.840
Justin, who we're talking about, will be there.
01:12:07.920 --> 01:12:10.399
We got about 20 people registered now, which is cool.
01:12:10.560 --> 01:12:12.000
Check out playerdriven.io.
01:12:12.319 --> 01:12:13.760
We'll have clips out this weekend.
01:12:13.840 --> 01:12:16.399
And Colin, man, have a good birthday party.
01:12:16.560 --> 01:12:17.680
Happy birthday to your son.
01:12:17.840 --> 01:12:19.840
Enjoy Legoland and be good, dude.
01:12:20.079 --> 01:12:21.119
We'll be back next week, man.
01:12:21.199 --> 01:12:28.239
And um, yeah, teaser, I uh I'm gonna do the piece on Where's Batman and I go to Comic Con in a few weeks, and I think I'm gonna line it up with that trip.
01:12:28.399 --> 01:12:31.119
I'm gonna do a whole deep dive into comic book and gaming.
01:12:31.279 --> 01:12:36.399
If anyone is not watching X-Men 97, it's outstanding animated content, A plus show.
01:12:36.479 --> 01:12:38.399
Um, so shout out to that at the end.
01:12:38.560 --> 01:12:41.199
I'll be ready to catch up with it with you on it next week.
01:12:41.279 --> 01:12:42.560
I'll I'll do my homework here.
01:12:42.800 --> 01:12:43.600
Goodbye, everybody.
01:12:44.159 --> 01:12:46.079
Check it out and uh have a good week.

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