WEBVTT
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Just between us is all about variety.
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I don't mean spinning plates and singing dogs, although that is work in progress.
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I mean sometimes I talk to funny people, sometimes we chew the cow with political beasts or business people, and sometimes we try to find out what's around the corner.
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And today we are going to look at the shifting geopolitical sands.
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I guess I should say if you'd rather bury your head in the sand, you might just switch to Radio 2 or find something with Giles Brandreth.
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Shouldn't be that difficult.
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Otherwise, you are in the right place.
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My guest is the preeminent guide to geopolitics with the accent on geo.
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Welcome, Tim Marshall.
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How are you?
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Well, just between us, I'm cowed by your lovely introduction.
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Um, in no way we'll live up to it, but we'll try.
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Yeah, don't be cowed.
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Actually, let me just rattle through the bile for those that aren't immediately familiar with your œuvre.
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Former diplomatic editor and foreign correspondent for Sky News, reported, this is probably out of date, from 30 countries, including, just to take a few, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Israel, written in no particular order for the Sunday Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and many others.
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Most significantly, because I think this is how a lot of my listeners will know you.
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You have written books that have uh captured the imagination.
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The first, I think, and certainly the one that sold three million plus copies, was called Prisoners of Geography.
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First written in 2015, updated last year.
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But also there's the power of geography, looking at places like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the future of geography, which fascinatingly is about the new space race.
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And then Divided, Why We're Living in an Age of Walls.
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And I suppose a companion piece really worth dying for, the power and the politics of flags.
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This is where my guests often correct me, Tim.
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Are you happy so far?
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My first book actually was something called Shadow Play about times in the Balkans and the Bosnian and Kosovan Wars.
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But I'm most proud of my second book, Dirty Northern Bastards, a history of Britain's football chants.
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But the rest of it, you're bang on.
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Thank you.
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No, I get it.
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And I noted the football chants, and I thought, well, should we instead of all this geopolitical stuff, should we just talk about Burnham and whether or not he is authentic and how we test it by getting him to sing a northern football chant?
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Oh, I think he could.
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I mean, that you know, I I read today he's has been asked to tone it down a wee bit because he is laying it on a bit thick.
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But no, I think he's a proper football fan, unlike other prime ministers that shall remain nameless that couldn't tell the difference between Aston Villa and West Ham because they happen to wear similar colours.
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This I know as a diehard West Ham fan.
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So listen, I will start him by quoting the words on the inside cover of Prisoners of Geography, because I think they're a really good way in, and I quote, not from memory, all leaders are constrained by geography.
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Their choices are limited by mountains, rivers, seas, and concrete.
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Yes, to follow world events you need to understand people, ideas, and movements, but if you don't know geography, you'll never have the full picture.
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So I know we're constrained by time.
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People have got dogs to walk and fish to fry.
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But can we start with a very quick but should we say concise look at what's going on right now in the Middle East?
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Twenty-one miles of geography, the Strait of Hormuz, is constraining and checking, not yet checkmated, but we'll see, the greatest military power the world has ever seen.
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Were the Strait of Hormuz, well, it wouldn't be a strait, but if it was 200 miles across, we wouldn't be in this predicament.
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Iran would not be able to in that manner.
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So what's going on there is that the Americans, for various reasons, have failed to see that that little bit of geography might be a bit of a flaw.
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I mean, there's other bits of geography as well.
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That the another card that the Iranians can play is to press upon their allies in Yemen, the Houthis, that if we come a cropper, you can still close the Red Sea to uh traffic.
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This is pushing a number of other events.
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A lot of Arab countries have realized that their biggest issue is not Israel, it's Iran.
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A lot of countries are now looking out of balance.
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One of the most significant things that's happened in the last since this war began.
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Well, actually, since last year, when the first bombing happened, the 12-day war, is Saudi Arabia getting into a security arrangement with Pakistan.
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They're going to bring in Turkey.
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And what's happening there is that these three have read the future, because the future is that the Americans genuinely mean to draw back.
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They don't want to stop being the world's most powerful power with influence everywhere, but what they do want to do is revert to normal and draw back and actually let friends, sometimes allies, carry the weight of the burden of security in their regions whilst they sit on top of it trying to pull all the strings.
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The Europeans have uh they may be finally waking up to that's what's happening and realizing we better get our own house in order.
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But I think most of the rest of the world realized it before the Europeans did.
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I think that's what's happening.
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That's in the Middle East, but the Middle East is in the context of what's happening globally.
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One of the things that strikes me as somebody who's interested but very amateurish in my perspective, I guess, is that one thing, maybe the one thing the Americans won't do any more than Israel would do in Gaza, is put boots on the ground.
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As in house to house.
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Well, no, that's what the Israelis have done, though.
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They've suffered so many losses.
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Obviously, on the other side, the losses have been far, far greater and immense.
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But the Israeli losses are exactly because instead of just carpet bombing, they've gone house to house to try and clear and they've lost so many people.
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But when it comes to the Americans, 100%.
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It's not even ripples, it's still, I wouldn't say tidal waves, but strong waves lapping out from the Iraq War of 2003 and then the embarrassment of leaving there and then leaving Afghanistan.
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They're still lapping up on the America's political shores.
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And that's why they won't go onto the mainland in numbers.
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You can't rule out an operation against one of the islands, but they are not going to invade Iran.
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Thank you for that clarity.
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Let's move swiftly to another, I suppose it's what military types call a theatre in Ukraine.
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And what fascinates me, maybe because I like a kind of pictorial way of seeing things, I quite liked the whole fuss there was about infographics.
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I was rather taken by all that.
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I'm trying to see it as a set of dominoes, as in if this happens, that will happen.
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So let's suppose it's probably not suited to dominoes, the situation in Ukraine rumbles on for two, three, four more years without any substantial changes.
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Presumably nothing happens with the dominoes.
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But if something gives, like, I don't know.
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Well, let's start there.
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What might give?
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What might change the situation in Ukraine and why?
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There's a number of things, and also again, the ramifications of Russia's invasion are immense.
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They actually fit into the previous answer when I was talking about how America wants regional allies to take on the security burden, it's the same in Europe.
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In fact, that's probably the place.
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I mean, they're doing the same with Japan and Australia, South Korea and Taiwan in the Pacific.
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They're doing it in the Middle East, and they're doing it in Europe.
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Because fundamentally, what happened when Putin completely failed in the opening days was he got rid of the Americans' primary issue with Europe, which is that no one power is allowed to rise and dominate the whole continent.
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Hence they arrived in 1917 because of Germany, they came back in 1944 because of Germany, they stayed in the Cold War because of Soviets, and they stayed on a little bit longer because of Russia.
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But the moment Russia proves it can't even reach the center of Kyiv, well, the justification for being there finishes.
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And so the burden has to come on the Europeans.
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So to go directly to your question, there's various scenarios.
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Let's say the Russians have a massive breakthrough and roll all the way to uh Lviv on the Polish border.
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The knock-on effect of that is that then the massive long NATO front line in Central Europe, they are face to face with the Russian front line and all the tensions that that would bring.
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An emboldened Russia, then perhaps in various ways probing and testing in the Baltic states.
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And in the event that the Americans have gone, I don't think they will, but if they had, I don't see Portugal fighting for Estonia.
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And in the event of them probing and us having no reaction, then they would take the Baltics, followed by or preceded by Moldova, followed by or preceded by Georgia.
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All these things are plausible given the history and the geography of the region.
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The other one, of course, is that the Ukrainians break through.
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It's pretty difficult, leading to a catastrophic defeat for Putin, who then falls out of a window, and another Putinesque figure takes over and the tensions continue.
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I mean, you know, history's not going to end.
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I commend to everybody listening that in Prisoners of Geography, you have a wonderful chapter about Russia, and explain through geography the importance of the line with NATO countries, the importance of Crimea in particular Sevastopol.
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And I suppose I'm kind of thinking, well, okay, what if somehow or other I get that it seems ridiculously far-fetched.
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But what if Ukraine blew up or somehow or other regained control of Sevastopol?
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Because that's after reading you, I now understand much better, as a warm water port.
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Yes that's mightily important.
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Could that change the dominance?
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Yes, it absolutely throws Russia on the back foot.
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And that was its primary reason for starting the war in the first place, back in 2014, before the full invasion three years ago.
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Sebastopol in the Crimea, on the Black Sea, biggest port they have, which has warm water.
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But of course, it was Ukrainian, because Khrushchev, in the late 50s, I think it was, believing that Soviet men would live forever, gave Crimea to Ukraine.
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It actually has, for most of history, been far more aligned with Russia or part of Russia.
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But he, in his wisdom, gave it to Ukraine.
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And then after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russians managed to get a long lease.
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So the Black Sea fleet didn't have to build another one somewhere else.
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And it's their crucial port, the only Walmart port they have, because the other ones are up north, and it's very hard for them to get out to the oceans.
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It's hard to get out of the Black Sea.
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You've got to go through the Bosphorus, Dardanals, past about ten NATO states, through the Strait of Gibraltar, and only then you in the ocean.
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So it's a raison d'etre for the first conflict, and they will fight tooth and nail to keep it.
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I mean, they're getting hammered down there.
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The people down there are wondering who actually, genuinely most of them wanted the Russians to come and take it over.
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They're mostly Russian speakers down there.
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Not all of them, but a lot of them.
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They're not so sure it was such a good idea now because they're getting hammered and hit, and they have problems with water supply.
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To answer the question, sorry, Jeremy, which is I doubt the Ukrainians can take it.
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If they did, basically the Black Sea fleet loses its historic port.
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They only had a about 20 years left on the lease anyway, and they worried that if Ukraine was a friend of the Western nations, it would, at the end of this, terminate the agreement, which is why they acted to secure it.
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I don't think the Ukrainians can, but if they did, yeah, it fundamentally changes because then the Ukrainian Navy is in that wonderful deep water port, and um the Russians who've already had to withdraw some of the fleet to another port deeper into the Black Sea.
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But yes, they would lose one of their cram jewels.
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Well, we can't forget, of course, the words of the great visionary Donald Trump who said that leases aren't worth the paper they're written on.
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Actually, let's pop across and look at what's going on in America just for a moment, because of the challenge being placed on democracy, which of course is happening elsewhere.
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And it kind of raises the question in my mind, because there might or might not be a European parallel, of exactly where do populists sit in that line between totalitarian machines and democracies.
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Yeah.
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Where's America going?
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Civil war.
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Well, um I had lunch with a very senior American banker who actually runs a household name bank.
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And he actually said he thinks they're going towards civil war.
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And he knows the country better than I do, but I still disagree.
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And that's because America's been here before.
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If you look at, was it 68, the Kent State shootings?
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Whenever it was, late 60s, early 70s, National Guard are brought in because of the divisions in the country.
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There's massive tensions on the campuses, and they shot dead four students.
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I mean, that's how bad it was.
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We had the Watts riots, the Vietnam demonstrations.
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We had the shooting of Bobby Kennedy, JFK, Martin Luther King, busing in in Boston, segregated.
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You know, you name it, that was a country divided, as it was in 1860, in the start of the Civil War.
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So, yes, you can't rule out a return to the Civil War that they had 150 years ago.
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I think a more likely scenario is that they've come through this very, very difficult divided time.
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And I think there's some way to go yet, especially if you look at the trajectory of the Democrats, who are embracing what in American terms is radical far-left ideology.
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So I don't think the divisions are going to heal yet, but when I think they will, at which point we might come back to something more approaching where we were.
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The other thing about the states is, and it goes around in I don't know about circles or linear, it's just interesting comparisons in the foreign policy, is that they actually are reverting to norm.
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It's normal for the Americans not to try not to be involved in Europe.
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That's the norm for America.
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It's abnormal what our generation has lived through.
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And therefore we think it's normal just because we lived through it.
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But 70 years of their involvement against 170 years preceding it of their non-involvement in Europe, they're reverting to norm.
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They care much more about the backyard and trying to get everybody to take responsibility for their own area.
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Right.
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Where do they sit, these populists?
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Let's quickly turn to Hungary and Viktor Orban, who quickly turned Hungary into a I wouldn't say an authoritarian state, but certainly began to slowly try to dismantle some of the democratic norms, but they were strong enough to hold up, and he was kicked out.
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I'm confident that the American constitution is strong enough to survive Trump.
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I'm not saying America will ever go back to completely to how it's been.
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He's not going to stand for a third term, that the Constitution would forbid it.
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That would actually cause a civil war, I think.
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So I think it depends on the populist and the country.
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If you have a populist that genuinely wants to turn it into a dictatorship authoritarian state, there are levers you can pull.
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So therefore, it is then how powerful is the state and the constitution to withstand those challenges?
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And in America, I think it's very robust.
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In other countries, far less so, let's say a country like Ethiopia or a country like Rwanda, if you get a populist there that wants to take that route, then you can advance towards authoritarianism more quickly.
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And I think Kigami, for example, in Rwanda is a good example.
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Let's turn to other threats, all of which have some kind of I imagine, some kind of geographical dimension to them.
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First of all, sorry, this is a bit of a tangent from a tangent, but I'll be quick about it.
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I bumped into a Tory grandee recently who was talking about Islam being the biggest threat we face in the UK.
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I uh instinctively and strongly disagree with that.
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But it's very, very, very clear that quite a lot of people are buying into it.
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And that sort of makes me wonder whether we should at least consider whether we're witnessing or taking part in actually what might turn out to be a very significant clash between what some people now in I think an unfortunate way call a Judeo-Christian thing, set of values, civilization, use whatever word you will, and an Islamic one.
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First of all, is that going to run out of energy as it becomes apparent that it's wildly, wildly exaggerated as a threat?
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Or could it become real?
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And in that case, what part does geography play in it?
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Presumably in terms of migration, I don't know.
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Well, it's possibly the most sensitive discussion in politics at the moment.
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The idea that it is the greatest threat comes from demographics, but it's not just demographics.
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It comes from the tension between I'm uncomfortable with the phrase Judaic Christian heritage.
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I mean, even though I would say to a degree the dominant culture is built on it, but it's a bit of a catch-all.
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But there is a tension between the concept which Jesus came up with, which is render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and unto God what is God's.
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In other words, it's in the book that the culture was founded on up to a point after all our ancestors killed each other in large numbers and stole bits of land, that religion and the state and politics should be separate.
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And I know that the king is the head of the Church of England as well, I know that.
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Nevertheless, we do have that separation.
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There is no such separation in Islam.
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Religion is politics, politics is religion.
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There's no separation.
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And that does present a tension because people therefore do vote along religious lines, which is problematic.
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So this country is what about 8% Islamic at the moment?
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But the other problem with the idea of it being the biggest threat is that if the 8% were Islamists, as in radical political Islamists, then there's a problem.
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Because without doubt, the Muslim Brotherhood is here, is organized, and is trying to radicalize as many people as it can because it wants tension, it wants to create divisions, because the Muslim Brotherhood has a global plan to take over the world.
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I mean, I I know it sounds fantastical, but if any research into the Muslim Brotherhood, it's very, very clear if you read their founding fathers from the 60s and 70s, the famous book called Milestones, which I mean it's all just it's laid out there.
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Because you have to do God's will, and God's will is that your version of Islam is the one that the world has to have.
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So there is this tension here.
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And i we do see it played out in our streets in some of the debate.
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So the battle, if you like, is for the soul of Islam in the places that Islam is moving to in large numbers.
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I don't think it's a thing about skin colour, by the way.
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I think it's a thing about culture and religion.
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It's not skin colour.
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So do I really believe that most of the Muslims I meet on a day-to-day basis want to take over the world?
00:22:26.319 --> 00:22:26.640
No.
00:22:27.359 --> 00:22:31.680
Most of them support England when they play football and would just want to get on with their lives.
00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:49.359
But that is not to say there is not a problem which needs understanding, but that's a very different thing to saying that's the greatest threat, especially if you look at global warming, Russia, the collapse in respect for democracy.
00:22:49.680 --> 00:22:51.119
We face a lot of challenges.
00:22:51.359 --> 00:22:54.400
Sorry, it's a very long answer, but it's a very, very sensitive subject.
00:22:54.799 --> 00:22:56.640
And would that we had longer to talk about it.
00:22:56.720 --> 00:23:01.200
By the way, I I have a homespun theory, which you could shoot down, but we wouldn't have time for it.
00:23:01.519 --> 00:23:18.559
That actually there's another dividing line which crosses all these cultural things, but somehow or other groups this Tory grandee with a lot of people on the Islamic side, which is the divide between modernists and conservatives.
00:23:19.119 --> 00:23:25.359
I'm quite curious about the connection between the conservatives on both sides, but we have no time for that.
00:23:25.759 --> 00:23:30.240
I do want to come back a little bit because as I said, that I do think there is a problem.
00:23:30.480 --> 00:23:39.680
I don't believe it should not be exaggerated, but I go back to you see it played out over and over again that when there is an incident, you see the same groups and the same people.
00:23:39.839 --> 00:23:54.240
Let's say it's a school, but awful incident in Battle in Yorkshire, where the teacher warned everybody, said anybody wants to leave, and then showed a picture of the Prophet Muhammad, he was not trying to insult anyone, but the guy is still in hiding.
00:23:54.559 --> 00:24:05.519
Well, the people that organized all that, and I would say whipped it up, are the same people and all the same type of people that in every single one of these incidents, they go for political reasons to try and whip all this up.
00:24:05.599 --> 00:24:10.640
And they have a degree of success with people that think they might have some grievances.
00:24:10.960 --> 00:24:32.000
And I do think most mainstream media is so frightened of the subject that they are frightened to say there is an organized effort to whip things up and to push us against each other, just as there is on the far right, because you see those same people turning up again and again.
00:24:32.160 --> 00:24:37.839
But there is a reluctance to talk about it on one side, but not on the other.
00:24:38.000 --> 00:24:40.319
Now, I hope that that is measured.
00:24:40.480 --> 00:24:47.920
The problem is if you're on one side or the other, I'm not come down on your side, and there consequently you can shout at me.
00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:52.880
Would that we could talk more about the role of the media and their responsibility?
00:24:53.119 --> 00:24:59.759
Listen, Tim, just to wrap up very, very quickly, I have some entirely unspontaneous quickfire questions.
00:25:00.240 --> 00:25:00.640
Oh dear.
00:25:01.039 --> 00:25:02.640
The answer's both to most of them.
00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:04.960
No, they're not difficult at all, I promise them.
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:08.240
Sometimes I toss in difficult ones, but these are easy.
00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:09.279
Number one.
00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:16.720
Should geography join English and maths as a compulsory subject in the new school curriculum?
00:25:17.039 --> 00:25:17.680
Nope.
00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:20.400
That's a big quiet wow from me.
00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:22.160
It's a reluctant no.
00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:23.279
Maths.
00:25:23.519 --> 00:25:24.160
Absolutely.
00:25:24.480 --> 00:25:25.759
English, absolutely.
00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:42.079
Look, teach it and teach it well and energize, and it has grown in popularity, and it is now quite a cool subject to at university because they folded in things like tumor geography, bit of history, terrain, politics, people movement, climate change.
00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:45.680
You know, they folded it all into things that used to be bloody soil samples.
00:25:45.920 --> 00:25:47.440
Yeah, I had in when I was a kid.
00:25:47.680 --> 00:25:52.480
So as long as it's taught properly, you will energize new generations to study it.
00:25:52.559 --> 00:25:58.079
But no, I think maths, English, and the equivalent of how to write a check.
00:25:58.480 --> 00:25:59.200
Social skills.
00:25:59.599 --> 00:26:01.839
This from the man who put the geo in geopolitics.
00:26:02.000 --> 00:26:02.799
Question number two.
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:16.559
Having written recently about the space race, the new space race, the future of space, would you like to be among the first group of humans to colonize Mars?
00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:17.920
No.
00:26:18.319 --> 00:26:18.960
Thanks.
00:26:19.200 --> 00:26:25.519
I don't even really want to visit, but I'll go to the moon at the drop of a hat and hopefully come back three days later.
00:26:25.759 --> 00:26:29.039
But Mars, talking a couple of years.
00:26:29.200 --> 00:26:31.920
Just, you know, if you decide you don't like it, you want to come back?
00:26:32.079 --> 00:26:32.319
No.
00:26:32.480 --> 00:26:33.759
I'll leave that to Elon.
00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:34.799
If only.
00:26:35.119 --> 00:26:36.319
Final question.
00:26:36.720 --> 00:26:38.160
This is a lovely one.
00:26:38.480 --> 00:26:40.880
Tim, what's your next book about?
00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:42.160
It's not.
00:26:42.319 --> 00:26:45.119
It's a blank page with no words on it.
00:26:45.440 --> 00:26:47.440
Only connect, the rest is silence.
00:26:47.680 --> 00:26:49.599
If a tree falls in a forest, etc.
00:26:50.000 --> 00:26:52.559
I've been saying for two years I'm probably not going to write one.
00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:56.319
Unless I wake up one morning, uh that'll be true.
00:26:56.480 --> 00:26:58.400
And think I'd have to write this.
00:26:58.559 --> 00:27:03.680
I'm enjoying writing some long-form essays for August publications.
00:27:03.839 --> 00:27:11.359
And what I thought you were going to ask me was John Smith or Tetley's, or Mackison or um Guinness, or Red or White Wine.
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:13.279
Because the answer to all of those is both.
00:27:13.599 --> 00:27:16.880
The future of the Samuel Smith Brewery, which is now, you know, who knows?
00:27:18.720 --> 00:27:19.680
I have one for you.
00:27:19.759 --> 00:27:22.079
Uh West Ham coming back up this season.
00:27:24.880 --> 00:27:25.680
Did you hear that?
00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:26.960
I think they are.
00:27:27.119 --> 00:27:28.160
You kept Boeing.
00:27:28.240 --> 00:27:29.119
That was the sign.
00:27:29.680 --> 00:27:33.599
I said obviously, I devoutly hope that they will.
00:27:33.839 --> 00:27:38.000
Well, some are reasonably good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
00:27:38.160 --> 00:27:39.039
Nah, you'll come back.
00:27:39.119 --> 00:27:43.359
By the way, in no, let's start and where we started, dirty northern bastards.
00:27:43.519 --> 00:27:48.160
I asked a question at the beginning of that, going off the old Buddhist thing about a tree in the forest.
00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:54.640
If Ronaldo scores a goal in a stadium and there's no one in it, does it count?
00:27:54.880 --> 00:27:56.319
And the answer is no.
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:00.319
And that's what Gianni Infantino should be learning.
00:28:00.640 --> 00:28:13.200
And that, dear listener, is the thought to play around with in your mind for however long it takes.
00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:14.799
Thank you, Tim.
00:28:15.039 --> 00:28:16.000
Can we compromise?
00:28:16.079 --> 00:28:23.599
Will you at least consider the idea of a further update to prisoners of geography in another ten years' time?
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:24.480
Yes.
00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:26.400
I believe AI is quite good at that.
00:28:26.559 --> 00:28:27.839
I don't use it yet.
00:28:28.240 --> 00:28:30.880
Thank you for making me laugh about AI, that's a fuss.
00:28:31.359 --> 00:28:32.400
Have a lovely day, Tim.
00:28:32.480 --> 00:28:32.640
Thank you.
00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:33.920
You look lovely well.
00:28:34.640 --> 00:28:35.279
Thank you very much.
00:28:35.599 --> 00:28:37.759
I look forward to seeing you again.
00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:53.039
But I also have to say to those listeners who work with speakers, as I spent a large part of my life doing, that if you want your audience to know what's going on, don't just give them copies of the book.
00:28:53.200 --> 00:28:56.400
Get Tim to stand in front of them.
00:28:56.799 --> 00:29:01.279
Because it will make their eyes open.
00:29:01.920 --> 00:29:02.720
Checks in the post.
00:29:03.039 --> 00:29:03.359
Checks.
00:29:03.440 --> 00:29:04.960
I thought we weren't doing checks anymore.
00:29:05.279 --> 00:29:07.039
There's a bank transfer on its way to you.
00:29:07.119 --> 00:29:07.359
Thank you.
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:08.079
Good now.
00:29:08.720 --> 00:29:09.359
Music is coming.
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:09.920
See you soon.
00:29:10.000 --> 00:29:10.640
Thanks, Tim.
00:00:15.279 --> 00:00:18.079
Just between us is all about variety.
00:00:18.399 --> 00:00:24.160
I don't mean spinning plates and singing dogs, although that is work in progress.
00:00:24.399 --> 00:00:37.039
I mean sometimes I talk to funny people, sometimes we chew the cow with political beasts or business people, and sometimes we try to find out what's around the corner.
00:00:37.439 --> 00:00:43.280
And today we are going to look at the shifting geopolitical sands.
00:00:43.679 --> 00:00:51.200
I guess I should say if you'd rather bury your head in the sand, you might just switch to Radio 2 or find something with Giles Brandreth.
00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:52.560
Shouldn't be that difficult.
00:00:52.719 --> 00:00:55.679
Otherwise, you are in the right place.
00:00:55.920 --> 00:01:03.520
My guest is the preeminent guide to geopolitics with the accent on geo.
00:01:04.239 --> 00:01:05.760
Welcome, Tim Marshall.
00:01:05.920 --> 00:01:06.239
How are you?
00:01:06.640 --> 00:01:10.959
Well, just between us, I'm cowed by your lovely introduction.
00:01:11.120 --> 00:01:13.599
Um, in no way we'll live up to it, but we'll try.
00:01:13.920 --> 00:01:14.959
Yeah, don't be cowed.
00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:22.799
Actually, let me just rattle through the bile for those that aren't immediately familiar with your œuvre.
00:01:23.200 --> 00:01:44.480
Former diplomatic editor and foreign correspondent for Sky News, reported, this is probably out of date, from 30 countries, including, just to take a few, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Israel, written in no particular order for the Sunday Times, The Guardian, The Telegraph, and many others.
00:01:44.959 --> 00:01:49.519
Most significantly, because I think this is how a lot of my listeners will know you.
00:01:50.239 --> 00:01:55.120
You have written books that have uh captured the imagination.
00:01:55.760 --> 00:02:04.079
The first, I think, and certainly the one that sold three million plus copies, was called Prisoners of Geography.
00:02:04.560 --> 00:02:08.240
First written in 2015, updated last year.
00:02:08.479 --> 00:02:19.840
But also there's the power of geography, looking at places like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, the future of geography, which fascinatingly is about the new space race.
00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:25.199
And then Divided, Why We're Living in an Age of Walls.
00:02:25.520 --> 00:02:32.240
And I suppose a companion piece really worth dying for, the power and the politics of flags.
00:02:32.479 --> 00:02:34.879
This is where my guests often correct me, Tim.
00:02:34.960 --> 00:02:36.080
Are you happy so far?
00:02:36.479 --> 00:02:43.120
My first book actually was something called Shadow Play about times in the Balkans and the Bosnian and Kosovan Wars.
00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:49.280
But I'm most proud of my second book, Dirty Northern Bastards, a history of Britain's football chants.
00:02:49.439 --> 00:02:51.360
But the rest of it, you're bang on.
00:02:51.439 --> 00:02:51.680
Thank you.
00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:52.639
No, I get it.
00:02:52.719 --> 00:03:05.599
And I noted the football chants, and I thought, well, should we instead of all this geopolitical stuff, should we just talk about Burnham and whether or not he is authentic and how we test it by getting him to sing a northern football chant?
00:03:05.919 --> 00:03:07.199
Oh, I think he could.
00:03:07.360 --> 00:03:13.520
I mean, that you know, I I read today he's has been asked to tone it down a wee bit because he is laying it on a bit thick.
00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:23.599
But no, I think he's a proper football fan, unlike other prime ministers that shall remain nameless that couldn't tell the difference between Aston Villa and West Ham because they happen to wear similar colours.
00:03:23.919 --> 00:03:26.319
This I know as a diehard West Ham fan.
00:03:27.439 --> 00:03:42.479
So listen, I will start him by quoting the words on the inside cover of Prisoners of Geography, because I think they're a really good way in, and I quote, not from memory, all leaders are constrained by geography.
00:03:42.800 --> 00:03:48.400
Their choices are limited by mountains, rivers, seas, and concrete.
00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:59.360
Yes, to follow world events you need to understand people, ideas, and movements, but if you don't know geography, you'll never have the full picture.
00:04:00.240 --> 00:04:03.520
So I know we're constrained by time.
00:04:03.680 --> 00:04:06.240
People have got dogs to walk and fish to fry.
00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:15.280
But can we start with a very quick but should we say concise look at what's going on right now in the Middle East?
00:04:15.759 --> 00:04:28.240
Twenty-one miles of geography, the Strait of Hormuz, is constraining and checking, not yet checkmated, but we'll see, the greatest military power the world has ever seen.
00:04:28.560 --> 00:04:35.279
Were the Strait of Hormuz, well, it wouldn't be a strait, but if it was 200 miles across, we wouldn't be in this predicament.
00:04:35.680 --> 00:04:38.319
Iran would not be able to in that manner.
00:04:38.560 --> 00:04:48.079
So what's going on there is that the Americans, for various reasons, have failed to see that that little bit of geography might be a bit of a flaw.
00:04:48.240 --> 00:04:50.079
I mean, there's other bits of geography as well.
00:04:50.240 --> 00:05:02.160
That the another card that the Iranians can play is to press upon their allies in Yemen, the Houthis, that if we come a cropper, you can still close the Red Sea to uh traffic.
00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:06.720
This is pushing a number of other events.
00:05:07.040 --> 00:05:14.160
A lot of Arab countries have realized that their biggest issue is not Israel, it's Iran.
00:05:14.480 --> 00:05:17.839
A lot of countries are now looking out of balance.
00:05:18.160 --> 00:05:22.560
One of the most significant things that's happened in the last since this war began.
00:05:22.800 --> 00:05:32.240
Well, actually, since last year, when the first bombing happened, the 12-day war, is Saudi Arabia getting into a security arrangement with Pakistan.
00:05:32.480 --> 00:05:34.079
They're going to bring in Turkey.
00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:45.279
And what's happening there is that these three have read the future, because the future is that the Americans genuinely mean to draw back.
00:05:45.439 --> 00:06:08.879
They don't want to stop being the world's most powerful power with influence everywhere, but what they do want to do is revert to normal and draw back and actually let friends, sometimes allies, carry the weight of the burden of security in their regions whilst they sit on top of it trying to pull all the strings.
00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:18.959
The Europeans have uh they may be finally waking up to that's what's happening and realizing we better get our own house in order.
00:06:19.199 --> 00:06:22.800
But I think most of the rest of the world realized it before the Europeans did.
00:06:22.959 --> 00:06:24.160
I think that's what's happening.
00:06:24.319 --> 00:06:29.519
That's in the Middle East, but the Middle East is in the context of what's happening globally.
00:06:30.079 --> 00:06:48.399
One of the things that strikes me as somebody who's interested but very amateurish in my perspective, I guess, is that one thing, maybe the one thing the Americans won't do any more than Israel would do in Gaza, is put boots on the ground.
00:06:48.720 --> 00:06:50.160
As in house to house.
00:06:50.480 --> 00:06:52.160
Well, no, that's what the Israelis have done, though.
00:06:52.319 --> 00:06:53.600
They've suffered so many losses.
00:06:53.759 --> 00:06:57.759
Obviously, on the other side, the losses have been far, far greater and immense.
00:06:57.920 --> 00:07:06.079
But the Israeli losses are exactly because instead of just carpet bombing, they've gone house to house to try and clear and they've lost so many people.
00:07:06.240 --> 00:07:08.639
But when it comes to the Americans, 100%.
00:07:09.279 --> 00:07:21.920
It's not even ripples, it's still, I wouldn't say tidal waves, but strong waves lapping out from the Iraq War of 2003 and then the embarrassment of leaving there and then leaving Afghanistan.
00:07:22.079 --> 00:07:25.279
They're still lapping up on the America's political shores.
00:07:25.360 --> 00:07:30.480
And that's why they won't go onto the mainland in numbers.
00:07:30.720 --> 00:07:36.959
You can't rule out an operation against one of the islands, but they are not going to invade Iran.
00:07:37.600 --> 00:07:39.199
Thank you for that clarity.
00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:48.399
Let's move swiftly to another, I suppose it's what military types call a theatre in Ukraine.
00:07:48.720 --> 00:07:58.399
And what fascinates me, maybe because I like a kind of pictorial way of seeing things, I quite liked the whole fuss there was about infographics.
00:07:58.480 --> 00:08:00.079
I was rather taken by all that.
00:08:00.399 --> 00:08:06.800
I'm trying to see it as a set of dominoes, as in if this happens, that will happen.
00:08:07.839 --> 00:08:21.360
So let's suppose it's probably not suited to dominoes, the situation in Ukraine rumbles on for two, three, four more years without any substantial changes.
00:08:21.519 --> 00:08:23.759
Presumably nothing happens with the dominoes.
00:08:23.920 --> 00:08:27.680
But if something gives, like, I don't know.
00:08:27.839 --> 00:08:28.800
Well, let's start there.
00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:29.920
What might give?
00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:34.320
What might change the situation in Ukraine and why?
00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:41.919
There's a number of things, and also again, the ramifications of Russia's invasion are immense.
00:08:42.159 --> 00:08:52.879
They actually fit into the previous answer when I was talking about how America wants regional allies to take on the security burden, it's the same in Europe.
00:08:53.039 --> 00:08:54.720
In fact, that's probably the place.
00:08:54.799 --> 00:08:59.840
I mean, they're doing the same with Japan and Australia, South Korea and Taiwan in the Pacific.
00:08:59.919 --> 00:09:02.879
They're doing it in the Middle East, and they're doing it in Europe.
00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:19.840
Because fundamentally, what happened when Putin completely failed in the opening days was he got rid of the Americans' primary issue with Europe, which is that no one power is allowed to rise and dominate the whole continent.
00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:31.759
Hence they arrived in 1917 because of Germany, they came back in 1944 because of Germany, they stayed in the Cold War because of Soviets, and they stayed on a little bit longer because of Russia.
00:09:31.919 --> 00:09:39.360
But the moment Russia proves it can't even reach the center of Kyiv, well, the justification for being there finishes.
00:09:39.600 --> 00:09:42.159
And so the burden has to come on the Europeans.
00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:46.559
So to go directly to your question, there's various scenarios.
00:09:46.639 --> 00:09:52.879
Let's say the Russians have a massive breakthrough and roll all the way to uh Lviv on the Polish border.
00:09:53.039 --> 00:10:06.639
The knock-on effect of that is that then the massive long NATO front line in Central Europe, they are face to face with the Russian front line and all the tensions that that would bring.
00:10:06.960 --> 00:10:15.039
An emboldened Russia, then perhaps in various ways probing and testing in the Baltic states.
00:10:15.200 --> 00:10:22.000
And in the event that the Americans have gone, I don't think they will, but if they had, I don't see Portugal fighting for Estonia.
00:10:22.240 --> 00:10:33.759
And in the event of them probing and us having no reaction, then they would take the Baltics, followed by or preceded by Moldova, followed by or preceded by Georgia.
00:10:34.240 --> 00:10:40.320
All these things are plausible given the history and the geography of the region.
00:10:40.480 --> 00:10:43.360
The other one, of course, is that the Ukrainians break through.
00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:56.000
It's pretty difficult, leading to a catastrophic defeat for Putin, who then falls out of a window, and another Putinesque figure takes over and the tensions continue.
00:10:56.159 --> 00:10:57.919
I mean, you know, history's not going to end.
00:10:58.480 --> 00:11:20.000
I commend to everybody listening that in Prisoners of Geography, you have a wonderful chapter about Russia, and explain through geography the importance of the line with NATO countries, the importance of Crimea in particular Sevastopol.
00:11:20.879 --> 00:11:30.320
And I suppose I'm kind of thinking, well, okay, what if somehow or other I get that it seems ridiculously far-fetched.
00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:40.159
But what if Ukraine blew up or somehow or other regained control of Sevastopol?
00:11:40.480 --> 00:11:46.720
Because that's after reading you, I now understand much better, as a warm water port.
00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:49.279
Yes that's mightily important.
00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:51.840
Could that change the dominance?
00:11:52.399 --> 00:11:55.360
Yes, it absolutely throws Russia on the back foot.
00:11:55.440 --> 00:12:05.440
And that was its primary reason for starting the war in the first place, back in 2014, before the full invasion three years ago.
00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:12.879
Sebastopol in the Crimea, on the Black Sea, biggest port they have, which has warm water.
00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:26.879
But of course, it was Ukrainian, because Khrushchev, in the late 50s, I think it was, believing that Soviet men would live forever, gave Crimea to Ukraine.
00:12:27.120 --> 00:12:33.360
It actually has, for most of history, been far more aligned with Russia or part of Russia.
00:12:33.679 --> 00:12:36.559
But he, in his wisdom, gave it to Ukraine.
00:12:36.720 --> 00:12:42.240
And then after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russians managed to get a long lease.
00:12:42.399 --> 00:12:46.799
So the Black Sea fleet didn't have to build another one somewhere else.
00:12:46.960 --> 00:12:55.360
And it's their crucial port, the only Walmart port they have, because the other ones are up north, and it's very hard for them to get out to the oceans.
00:12:55.519 --> 00:12:57.039
It's hard to get out of the Black Sea.
00:12:57.120 --> 00:13:04.879
You've got to go through the Bosphorus, Dardanals, past about ten NATO states, through the Strait of Gibraltar, and only then you in the ocean.
00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:12.320
So it's a raison d'etre for the first conflict, and they will fight tooth and nail to keep it.
00:13:12.399 --> 00:13:14.080
I mean, they're getting hammered down there.
00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:20.240
The people down there are wondering who actually, genuinely most of them wanted the Russians to come and take it over.
00:13:20.399 --> 00:13:22.080
They're mostly Russian speakers down there.
00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:23.759
Not all of them, but a lot of them.
00:13:23.919 --> 00:13:29.600
They're not so sure it was such a good idea now because they're getting hammered and hit, and they have problems with water supply.
00:13:30.000 --> 00:13:35.440
To answer the question, sorry, Jeremy, which is I doubt the Ukrainians can take it.
00:13:35.679 --> 00:13:41.360
If they did, basically the Black Sea fleet loses its historic port.
00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:53.279
They only had a about 20 years left on the lease anyway, and they worried that if Ukraine was a friend of the Western nations, it would, at the end of this, terminate the agreement, which is why they acted to secure it.
00:13:53.440 --> 00:14:09.440
I don't think the Ukrainians can, but if they did, yeah, it fundamentally changes because then the Ukrainian Navy is in that wonderful deep water port, and um the Russians who've already had to withdraw some of the fleet to another port deeper into the Black Sea.
00:14:09.759 --> 00:14:12.639
But yes, they would lose one of their cram jewels.
00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:19.919
Well, we can't forget, of course, the words of the great visionary Donald Trump who said that leases aren't worth the paper they're written on.
00:14:20.159 --> 00:14:34.559
Actually, let's pop across and look at what's going on in America just for a moment, because of the challenge being placed on democracy, which of course is happening elsewhere.
00:14:34.639 --> 00:14:49.360
And it kind of raises the question in my mind, because there might or might not be a European parallel, of exactly where do populists sit in that line between totalitarian machines and democracies.
00:14:49.600 --> 00:14:50.000
Yeah.
00:14:50.240 --> 00:14:51.440
Where's America going?
00:14:51.679 --> 00:14:52.320
Civil war.
00:14:52.960 --> 00:15:00.480
Well, um I had lunch with a very senior American banker who actually runs a household name bank.
00:15:00.720 --> 00:15:03.759
And he actually said he thinks they're going towards civil war.
00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:07.360
And he knows the country better than I do, but I still disagree.
00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:10.000
And that's because America's been here before.
00:15:10.159 --> 00:15:13.919
If you look at, was it 68, the Kent State shootings?
00:15:14.240 --> 00:15:20.960
Whenever it was, late 60s, early 70s, National Guard are brought in because of the divisions in the country.
00:15:21.120 --> 00:15:25.360
There's massive tensions on the campuses, and they shot dead four students.
00:15:25.519 --> 00:15:27.200
I mean, that's how bad it was.
00:15:27.360 --> 00:15:31.279
We had the Watts riots, the Vietnam demonstrations.
00:15:31.440 --> 00:15:39.120
We had the shooting of Bobby Kennedy, JFK, Martin Luther King, busing in in Boston, segregated.
00:15:39.360 --> 00:15:45.600
You know, you name it, that was a country divided, as it was in 1860, in the start of the Civil War.
00:15:45.840 --> 00:15:50.799
So, yes, you can't rule out a return to the Civil War that they had 150 years ago.
00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:57.759
I think a more likely scenario is that they've come through this very, very difficult divided time.
00:15:57.919 --> 00:16:08.320
And I think there's some way to go yet, especially if you look at the trajectory of the Democrats, who are embracing what in American terms is radical far-left ideology.
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:18.639
So I don't think the divisions are going to heal yet, but when I think they will, at which point we might come back to something more approaching where we were.
00:16:18.879 --> 00:16:30.960
The other thing about the states is, and it goes around in I don't know about circles or linear, it's just interesting comparisons in the foreign policy, is that they actually are reverting to norm.
00:16:31.360 --> 00:16:34.879
It's normal for the Americans not to try not to be involved in Europe.
00:16:35.039 --> 00:16:36.559
That's the norm for America.
00:16:36.720 --> 00:16:39.840
It's abnormal what our generation has lived through.
00:16:39.919 --> 00:16:43.200
And therefore we think it's normal just because we lived through it.
00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:51.759
But 70 years of their involvement against 170 years preceding it of their non-involvement in Europe, they're reverting to norm.
00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:57.120
They care much more about the backyard and trying to get everybody to take responsibility for their own area.
00:16:57.279 --> 00:16:57.600
Right.
00:16:57.840 --> 00:17:01.039
Where do they sit, these populists?
00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:18.880
Let's quickly turn to Hungary and Viktor Orban, who quickly turned Hungary into a I wouldn't say an authoritarian state, but certainly began to slowly try to dismantle some of the democratic norms, but they were strong enough to hold up, and he was kicked out.
00:17:19.119 --> 00:17:24.079
I'm confident that the American constitution is strong enough to survive Trump.
00:17:24.240 --> 00:17:28.240
I'm not saying America will ever go back to completely to how it's been.
00:17:28.480 --> 00:17:32.319
He's not going to stand for a third term, that the Constitution would forbid it.
00:17:32.480 --> 00:17:34.880
That would actually cause a civil war, I think.
00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:38.960
So I think it depends on the populist and the country.
00:17:39.119 --> 00:17:45.119
If you have a populist that genuinely wants to turn it into a dictatorship authoritarian state, there are levers you can pull.
00:17:45.359 --> 00:17:52.400
So therefore, it is then how powerful is the state and the constitution to withstand those challenges?
00:17:52.480 --> 00:17:55.200
And in America, I think it's very robust.
00:17:55.519 --> 00:18:10.640
In other countries, far less so, let's say a country like Ethiopia or a country like Rwanda, if you get a populist there that wants to take that route, then you can advance towards authoritarianism more quickly.
00:18:10.799 --> 00:18:14.559
And I think Kigami, for example, in Rwanda is a good example.
00:18:15.279 --> 00:18:27.200
Let's turn to other threats, all of which have some kind of I imagine, some kind of geographical dimension to them.
00:18:27.599 --> 00:18:31.759
First of all, sorry, this is a bit of a tangent from a tangent, but I'll be quick about it.
00:18:32.480 --> 00:18:46.079
I bumped into a Tory grandee recently who was talking about Islam being the biggest threat we face in the UK.
00:18:46.559 --> 00:18:51.119
I uh instinctively and strongly disagree with that.
00:18:51.599 --> 00:18:56.480
But it's very, very, very clear that quite a lot of people are buying into it.
00:18:56.960 --> 00:19:23.680
And that sort of makes me wonder whether we should at least consider whether we're witnessing or taking part in actually what might turn out to be a very significant clash between what some people now in I think an unfortunate way call a Judeo-Christian thing, set of values, civilization, use whatever word you will, and an Islamic one.
00:19:24.160 --> 00:19:35.599
First of all, is that going to run out of energy as it becomes apparent that it's wildly, wildly exaggerated as a threat?
00:19:35.839 --> 00:19:37.039
Or could it become real?
00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:39.680
And in that case, what part does geography play in it?
00:19:39.839 --> 00:19:42.400
Presumably in terms of migration, I don't know.
00:19:42.960 --> 00:19:48.319
Well, it's possibly the most sensitive discussion in politics at the moment.
00:19:48.559 --> 00:19:54.559
The idea that it is the greatest threat comes from demographics, but it's not just demographics.
00:19:54.799 --> 00:20:03.279
It comes from the tension between I'm uncomfortable with the phrase Judaic Christian heritage.
00:20:03.920 --> 00:20:10.240
I mean, even though I would say to a degree the dominant culture is built on it, but it's a bit of a catch-all.
00:20:10.640 --> 00:20:21.279
But there is a tension between the concept which Jesus came up with, which is render unto Caesar what is Caesar's and unto God what is God's.
00:20:21.440 --> 00:20:35.680
In other words, it's in the book that the culture was founded on up to a point after all our ancestors killed each other in large numbers and stole bits of land, that religion and the state and politics should be separate.
00:20:35.759 --> 00:20:40.400
And I know that the king is the head of the Church of England as well, I know that.
00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:43.039
Nevertheless, we do have that separation.
00:20:43.279 --> 00:20:45.839
There is no such separation in Islam.
00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:48.480
Religion is politics, politics is religion.
00:20:48.559 --> 00:20:49.920
There's no separation.
00:20:50.400 --> 00:21:01.920
And that does present a tension because people therefore do vote along religious lines, which is problematic.
00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:07.119
So this country is what about 8% Islamic at the moment?
00:21:07.599 --> 00:21:19.920
But the other problem with the idea of it being the biggest threat is that if the 8% were Islamists, as in radical political Islamists, then there's a problem.
00:21:20.079 --> 00:21:36.079
Because without doubt, the Muslim Brotherhood is here, is organized, and is trying to radicalize as many people as it can because it wants tension, it wants to create divisions, because the Muslim Brotherhood has a global plan to take over the world.
00:21:36.240 --> 00:21:51.200
I mean, I I know it sounds fantastical, but if any research into the Muslim Brotherhood, it's very, very clear if you read their founding fathers from the 60s and 70s, the famous book called Milestones, which I mean it's all just it's laid out there.
00:21:51.519 --> 00:21:57.599
Because you have to do God's will, and God's will is that your version of Islam is the one that the world has to have.
00:21:57.839 --> 00:21:59.440
So there is this tension here.
00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:04.880
And i we do see it played out in our streets in some of the debate.
00:22:05.119 --> 00:22:13.440
So the battle, if you like, is for the soul of Islam in the places that Islam is moving to in large numbers.
00:22:13.680 --> 00:22:15.759
I don't think it's a thing about skin colour, by the way.
00:22:15.839 --> 00:22:17.519
I think it's a thing about culture and religion.
00:22:17.599 --> 00:22:19.119
It's not skin colour.
00:22:19.440 --> 00:22:26.000
So do I really believe that most of the Muslims I meet on a day-to-day basis want to take over the world?
00:22:26.319 --> 00:22:26.640
No.
00:22:27.359 --> 00:22:31.680
Most of them support England when they play football and would just want to get on with their lives.
00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:49.359
But that is not to say there is not a problem which needs understanding, but that's a very different thing to saying that's the greatest threat, especially if you look at global warming, Russia, the collapse in respect for democracy.
00:22:49.680 --> 00:22:51.119
We face a lot of challenges.
00:22:51.359 --> 00:22:54.400
Sorry, it's a very long answer, but it's a very, very sensitive subject.
00:22:54.799 --> 00:22:56.640
And would that we had longer to talk about it.
00:22:56.720 --> 00:23:01.200
By the way, I I have a homespun theory, which you could shoot down, but we wouldn't have time for it.
00:23:01.519 --> 00:23:18.559
That actually there's another dividing line which crosses all these cultural things, but somehow or other groups this Tory grandee with a lot of people on the Islamic side, which is the divide between modernists and conservatives.
00:23:19.119 --> 00:23:25.359
I'm quite curious about the connection between the conservatives on both sides, but we have no time for that.
00:23:25.759 --> 00:23:30.240
I do want to come back a little bit because as I said, that I do think there is a problem.
00:23:30.480 --> 00:23:39.680
I don't believe it should not be exaggerated, but I go back to you see it played out over and over again that when there is an incident, you see the same groups and the same people.
00:23:39.839 --> 00:23:54.240
Let's say it's a school, but awful incident in Battle in Yorkshire, where the teacher warned everybody, said anybody wants to leave, and then showed a picture of the Prophet Muhammad, he was not trying to insult anyone, but the guy is still in hiding.
00:23:54.559 --> 00:24:05.519
Well, the people that organized all that, and I would say whipped it up, are the same people and all the same type of people that in every single one of these incidents, they go for political reasons to try and whip all this up.
00:24:05.599 --> 00:24:10.640
And they have a degree of success with people that think they might have some grievances.
00:24:10.960 --> 00:24:32.000
And I do think most mainstream media is so frightened of the subject that they are frightened to say there is an organized effort to whip things up and to push us against each other, just as there is on the far right, because you see those same people turning up again and again.
00:24:32.160 --> 00:24:37.839
But there is a reluctance to talk about it on one side, but not on the other.
00:24:38.000 --> 00:24:40.319
Now, I hope that that is measured.
00:24:40.480 --> 00:24:47.920
The problem is if you're on one side or the other, I'm not come down on your side, and there consequently you can shout at me.
00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:52.880
Would that we could talk more about the role of the media and their responsibility?
00:24:53.119 --> 00:24:59.759
Listen, Tim, just to wrap up very, very quickly, I have some entirely unspontaneous quickfire questions.
00:25:00.240 --> 00:25:00.640
Oh dear.
00:25:01.039 --> 00:25:02.640
The answer's both to most of them.
00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:04.960
No, they're not difficult at all, I promise them.
00:25:05.279 --> 00:25:08.240
Sometimes I toss in difficult ones, but these are easy.
00:25:08.480 --> 00:25:09.279
Number one.
00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:16.720
Should geography join English and maths as a compulsory subject in the new school curriculum?
00:25:17.039 --> 00:25:17.680
Nope.
00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:20.400
That's a big quiet wow from me.
00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:22.160
It's a reluctant no.
00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:23.279
Maths.
00:25:23.519 --> 00:25:24.160
Absolutely.
00:25:24.480 --> 00:25:25.759
English, absolutely.
00:25:26.079 --> 00:25:42.079
Look, teach it and teach it well and energize, and it has grown in popularity, and it is now quite a cool subject to at university because they folded in things like tumor geography, bit of history, terrain, politics, people movement, climate change.
00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:45.680
You know, they folded it all into things that used to be bloody soil samples.
00:25:45.920 --> 00:25:47.440
Yeah, I had in when I was a kid.
00:25:47.680 --> 00:25:52.480
So as long as it's taught properly, you will energize new generations to study it.
00:25:52.559 --> 00:25:58.079
But no, I think maths, English, and the equivalent of how to write a check.
00:25:58.480 --> 00:25:59.200
Social skills.
00:25:59.599 --> 00:26:01.839
This from the man who put the geo in geopolitics.
00:26:02.000 --> 00:26:02.799
Question number two.
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:16.559
Having written recently about the space race, the new space race, the future of space, would you like to be among the first group of humans to colonize Mars?
00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:17.920
No.
00:26:18.319 --> 00:26:18.960
Thanks.
00:26:19.200 --> 00:26:25.519
I don't even really want to visit, but I'll go to the moon at the drop of a hat and hopefully come back three days later.
00:26:25.759 --> 00:26:29.039
But Mars, talking a couple of years.
00:26:29.200 --> 00:26:31.920
Just, you know, if you decide you don't like it, you want to come back?
00:26:32.079 --> 00:26:32.319
No.
00:26:32.480 --> 00:26:33.759
I'll leave that to Elon.
00:26:34.160 --> 00:26:34.799
If only.
00:26:35.119 --> 00:26:36.319
Final question.
00:26:36.720 --> 00:26:38.160
This is a lovely one.
00:26:38.480 --> 00:26:40.880
Tim, what's your next book about?
00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:42.160
It's not.
00:26:42.319 --> 00:26:45.119
It's a blank page with no words on it.
00:26:45.440 --> 00:26:47.440
Only connect, the rest is silence.
00:26:47.680 --> 00:26:49.599
If a tree falls in a forest, etc.
00:26:50.000 --> 00:26:52.559
I've been saying for two years I'm probably not going to write one.
00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:56.319
Unless I wake up one morning, uh that'll be true.
00:26:56.480 --> 00:26:58.400
And think I'd have to write this.
00:26:58.559 --> 00:27:03.680
I'm enjoying writing some long-form essays for August publications.
00:27:03.839 --> 00:27:11.359
And what I thought you were going to ask me was John Smith or Tetley's, or Mackison or um Guinness, or Red or White Wine.
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:13.279
Because the answer to all of those is both.
00:27:13.599 --> 00:27:16.880
The future of the Samuel Smith Brewery, which is now, you know, who knows?
00:27:18.720 --> 00:27:19.680
I have one for you.
00:27:19.759 --> 00:27:22.079
Uh West Ham coming back up this season.
00:27:24.880 --> 00:27:25.680
Did you hear that?
00:27:26.160 --> 00:27:26.960
I think they are.
00:27:27.119 --> 00:27:28.160
You kept Boeing.
00:27:28.240 --> 00:27:29.119
That was the sign.
00:27:29.680 --> 00:27:33.599
I said obviously, I devoutly hope that they will.
00:27:33.839 --> 00:27:38.000
Well, some are reasonably good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
00:27:38.160 --> 00:27:39.039
Nah, you'll come back.
00:27:39.119 --> 00:27:43.359
By the way, in no, let's start and where we started, dirty northern bastards.
00:27:43.519 --> 00:27:48.160
I asked a question at the beginning of that, going off the old Buddhist thing about a tree in the forest.
00:27:48.240 --> 00:27:54.640
If Ronaldo scores a goal in a stadium and there's no one in it, does it count?
00:27:54.880 --> 00:27:56.319
And the answer is no.
00:27:56.640 --> 00:28:00.319
And that's what Gianni Infantino should be learning.
00:28:00.640 --> 00:28:13.200
And that, dear listener, is the thought to play around with in your mind for however long it takes.
00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:14.799
Thank you, Tim.
00:28:15.039 --> 00:28:16.000
Can we compromise?
00:28:16.079 --> 00:28:23.599
Will you at least consider the idea of a further update to prisoners of geography in another ten years' time?
00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:24.480
Yes.
00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:26.400
I believe AI is quite good at that.
00:28:26.559 --> 00:28:27.839
I don't use it yet.
00:28:28.240 --> 00:28:30.880
Thank you for making me laugh about AI, that's a fuss.
00:28:31.359 --> 00:28:32.400
Have a lovely day, Tim.
00:28:32.480 --> 00:28:32.640
Thank you.
00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:33.920
You look lovely well.
00:28:34.640 --> 00:28:35.279
Thank you very much.
00:28:35.599 --> 00:28:37.759
I look forward to seeing you again.
00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:53.039
But I also have to say to those listeners who work with speakers, as I spent a large part of my life doing, that if you want your audience to know what's going on, don't just give them copies of the book.
00:28:53.200 --> 00:28:56.400
Get Tim to stand in front of them.
00:28:56.799 --> 00:29:01.279
Because it will make their eyes open.
00:29:01.920 --> 00:29:02.720
Checks in the post.
00:29:03.039 --> 00:29:03.359
Checks.
00:29:03.440 --> 00:29:04.960
I thought we weren't doing checks anymore.
00:29:05.279 --> 00:29:07.039
There's a bank transfer on its way to you.
00:29:07.119 --> 00:29:07.359
Thank you.
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:08.079
Good now.
00:29:08.720 --> 00:29:09.359
Music is coming.
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:09.920
See you soon.
00:29:10.000 --> 00:29:10.640
Thanks, Tim.
