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Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.
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Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. Today is the day. I should say we're only a few hours away because of this bizarre start. The first game of the NBA season starts at noon Pacific time today. As the Boston Celtics kick the season off in Detroit against the Pistons. We will be live on YouTube later tonight reacting to all three of tonight's games. I hope to see you guys there. But today is just a little short teaser before we get started with the season. I wanted to go over five big predictions that I have for the season. We've done this over the last couple of years. Just some of the big picture thoughts that I have. coming into the year. You guys know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. We have a goal to get to 150,000 subs. I'd love to get there in the next couple of weeks. So it would help us a lot if you guys would take a second to scroll down and hit that subscribe button. If you're already subscribed, like this video and sign up for post notifications. We will be back doing mailbags starting next week. This week we are reacting to the Thursday night slate. So we will be doing a normal kind of instant reaction episode on Friday. But we'll get back into our mailbag starting next week. So if you guys want questions in the mailbags, drop them underneath these videos. Write mailbag colon and then write your question. We'll get to them. on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. Over on Substack, I had another new post today, yesterday, I should say, talking about my kind of journey into the sports media business. It was kind of a fun trip down memory lane. You guys might have fun with that one. Head over there and check that out. And then for Roan today, I'm wearing the Atmosphere Tee in shadow blue heather, as well as these Peacats, which I'm a big fan of. All right, let's talk some basketball. So first big prediction of the season, I think the 76ers are going to get humbled a little bit. early in the season, but I think it'll be good for them in the long run. As I've talked about in the, uh, uh, through a lot of our preseason content, I've had my frustrations with some of the things that I've seen from them. Obviously Joel and beads lost a lot of weight, uh, but he doesn't necessarily look particularly mobile as a trade-off from that exchange. Um, I do think that he will get better as the year goes along. I, the Joel's talked about this, that it's a process and I do think that there's some kind of intelligence to the approach of like, hey, let's not have Joel come into the season in peak shape, having put a bunch of additional wear and tear on his body before they even start playing basketball. So I think there's some I think there's some you could make a case that like him focusing on his diet and coming in light. And then building up the strength of his body over time is the right idea. But the point is, is I think early in the season, it's going to look a little rough for Joel. He did have a, a decent final preseason game where he got to the foul on a bunch, finally hit a couple of threes, had a big driving dunk on like this fake dribble handoff play where he called for a carry on the first one. And then probably should have gotten called for a carry on the second one, but didn't, but it was definitely a step in the right direction. I just think Joel is going to struggle, especially on defense. in the early chunk of the season. And then overall with the team, there's a general lack of defensive intensity, especially with the starters, that I think will have them a step behind some of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, at least better defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. And then lastly, whenever you put a bunch of brand new basketball players together, there tends to be growing pains. If you look at their schedule, and this isn't anything that is unique. I mean, if you look around the league, there's just a lot of teams that are really good that are trying to win. So this whole idea like, oh, we're heading into an easy stretch of our schedule. I'm not sure how many of those there's going to be for any team in the league. But the NBA schedule is brutal. And the Sixers have a lot of tough games early in the season. They got a couple of matchups with the Knicks in there. They have a couple of matchups with the Pistons in there. So I think there's a version of this story where we're looking at the Sixers and they're like, five and seven through 12 games or six and six through 12 games. And then there could be some panic and, you know, a lot of media criticism surrounding them, but I think it could be really good for them because one, they do have a lot of talent. They do have some guys in house that I think will, there's some things that will improve over the initial weeks of the season, like Joel Embiid and his conditioning and his rhythm, like some of just their play style stuff, kind of settling in as they kind of learn how to play alongside each other. In general, being humbled is good, especially for what this team is going to be on the defensive end of the floor. If we get through those 12 games and they have the 23rd best defensive rating in the NBA, that could be the motivation that Nick Nurse needs, the piece of motivation that he can put in front of his team to try to drive a little bit more effort, execution, and focus out of them on the defensive end of the floor. So I think they're going to get a little bit rocked early in the season, but I think it'll be good for them in the long run. This team still has a lot of talent. I'm just low on them, especially as an early part of the season team, because I think they're going to have a lot of things to figure out. One last little note, and this doesn't count as one of the top five predictions, but I think LeBron's on-off net rating is going to be absolutely outrageous. he greases the wheels for this team on both ends in such a big way. He's going to be their best backline defender. I think that could also go against them a little bit in the super early part of the season as the team in general has some defensive malaise. But when you look at kind of the way the usage is, I think LeBron's scoring average is going to tank. I think he's going to average something really low. Like I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron was below 15 points per game after the first month of the season and so if LeBron scoring is really low and the team has a clear defensive need he's ironically their like best tool with which to handle that because of his backline communication and anticipation so like he's very important to them on the defensive end of the floor I think he's their best transition player in terms of like actually making the kick ahead passes and pushing off of live rebounds that will get them some of their easy shots in the open floor And he's the best passer on the team by a mile on a team that will struggle to pass the ball at times. Already in preseason, the Sixers are plus 27 when he's on the floor and minus 53 with him off the floor. Now, some of that data is skewed by, you know, your best players aren't even playing for the most part over the course of the preseason. So it obviously won't be that dramatic, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pretty substantial on-off swing with LeBron, like borderline double digits type of of swing and with a positive impact on both ends of the floor. I'm really excited to tell you guys about our new partnership with Roan. As you guys know, I have to dress up for work every single day. So quality clothing is an absolute must have for me. You guys have seen me wear Roan for a while on the show now, and I've been incredibly impressed by them. For starters, their stuff actually fits me. I'm taller and I have longer arms. And so I often run into issues where like the arms are too short or like the barrel is too baggy. And one of the things I've been really appreciative of is Roan has this like modern slim fit style that fits me extremely well in a variety of different styles. And you guys will continue to see me wearing their stuff throughout this season on the show. Today I have on the rib crew neck sweater and dark espresso, literally my favorite sweater that I've ever put on. You guys have seen me wear Roan hats a lot on the show. Their peak hats in particular are my favorite. And you'll see me wear those just about every day, either on the show or when I'm out running errands. I'm just a huge fan of their stuff. And I can't recommend them enough to you guys. We have a very special offer for you guys. If you head over to Roan.com and you use code hoops tonight, you're going to get 20% off your first order. And when you check out, they're going to ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show. Please let them know. that we sent you. Head to rhone.com, that's R-H-O-N-E.com, and use code HOOPSTONIGHT for 20% off your first order. Terms apply. Number two, I think Victor Wemby is going to win his first career MVP award this year. I think there are eight legitimate candidates. The Wemby case is very simple. If he plays in at least 65 games, the Spurs are going to win at least 60 because the rest of the roster is too deep in guard play and just really young and athletic and very strong defensive foundation, right? So like if Wendy plays a lot, the Spurs are going to win a lot. It's a pretty simple equation there. I think the on off numbers and impact metrics will be insane. Why? Because he already had insane on off numbers and impact metrics. Like he's easily the best regular season player in the league by sheer winning impact per possession already. He cleared everybody last year by a mile in that category. So like the criticism surrounding him is more of like a playoff small sample thing, which for, In general, voters tend to be a lot more forgiving of when players are young early in their careers. So I think the Spurs are going to win a ton of games. If Victor Wemmion plays a lot and the on-off numbers are going to be insane, the impact metrics are going to be insane. There's a strong narrative because he's never actually won the award before. I think he's going to get it. Quickly ripping through the rest of the candidates. There's a lot of difficulty in winning three in a row for any player. and Shea is going to run into that this year. One, there's a healthier ball handling core around him, like if J-Dub plays, and obviously you have a full season of Jared McCain, you have a deeper group of younger players that can make some plays off the bounce, which I think will drive his scoring average down just a touch. Because of the injuries last year, Shea had to do more with the basketball. He shouldn't have to do quite as much this year. I also find myself thinking about what happened with Giannis where he wins these back-to-back MVPs in 2019 and in 2020 but people start to see your playoff struggles and it becomes like a thing where it's like oh you're having another dominant regular season that's cool but we've just seen that before. And then we see you get to the post season, your true shooting percentage tanks and your scoring average goes down and you've lost as the favorite a few times. So like maybe, maybe this isn't the right, you know, maybe this isn't the right time to give you a third MVP.
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Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 2: And I think you saw a very similar thing with Giannis in 2021. He, his field goal percentage goes up. His assist numbers go up. His turnovers go down. He was just a better basketball player. I mean, he won the championship that year and he won finals MVP that year, but he finished fourth in MVP voting. And I think that's something that we could see from, uh, uh, from Shea Gildas Alexander this year. Like he just has a great season and none of the voters care because they've been down that road before over the last couple of seasons. Shea certainly can win. Like there's a universe where, okay, see you win 65 games. Maybe when B gets hurt. So he doesn't get to 65 games and he's disqualified or the Spurs are don't win enough games. And there's a big gap in the standings that ends up being the differentiator. Maybe Shay averages 30 points on 70% true shooting. And it's like the first time we've ever seen a guard go for 30 points on 70% true shooting. It's certainly on the table. Shay has a great chance. I just think the bar is extremely high for him. ripping through some of these other candidates. I think Jason Tatum has a shot. Like if Boston wins 55 games in a crowded Eastern conference and gets the one seed, and he finally breaks out as a three point shooter, something he's been working on for years and averages like 30, 10 and seven on 62% true shooting. And the on-offs are crazy. And the impact metrics are crazy. It's just my thing with Tatum is just really hard for him to keep up with the top guys, but I think he's got a decent shot. Cade, obviously, if he can maintain his playoff production, the strongest case for him is he's got that most valuable case. This is a team that does not have any reliable ball handling after him. He's essentially their entire offense in the half court outside of when they can get into their defense to transition sequences. He has a lot of like, there's a strong narrative that he's carrying the heaviest load offensively in the NBA. So like if Cade can take the playoff production that he had, over the course of those two rounds last year, and he can turn it into this strong regular season statistically, I think he's got a shot to be able to get the MVP this year. Giannis has a great shot. Starts with kind of the basic things that we always talk about. You got to produce at a top tier superstar level. We know Giannis is going to do that. I actually argue his offensive numbers will be off the charts this year because that's going to be his biggest job on the team. He's got really strong defensive personnel around him. I think Spolster is going to try to find some ways to make his life a little bit easier on that end of the floor. And then he's going to be constantly in transition off of misses and turnovers. And then in the half court, they're going to lean heavily on his rim pressure and his playmaking. Like, I think there's a good chance Giannis averages like 32 points and seven assists per game this year. And if he does that in Miami breaks out and they end up near the top of the standings or at the top of the standings, I think they've got a great chance to win. There's also a strong narrative there, right? Like he comes in and turns a perennial playoff or play in team from the last few years into like this bonafide top tier contender. He's going to have strong on off numbers. He's going to have strong impact metrics. I think the, the offensive on off numbers could push into double digits for him. So I think Giannis is great shot. some of the smaller chances like Tyrese Halliburton, right? Strong narrative. He's brings his team to within a tiny distance of the NBA championship, but then he gets injured and the team completely falls apart. But then he comes back and then suddenly they're great. You know, they're a top two seed in the East or something like that. And, Once again, strong impact metrics and on-off numbers. And he has a strong playoff reputation, which I think works in his favor. People view Tyrese Halliburton as a better basketball player than even his statistical performance because he's one of the best offensive engines in the NBA. And he's got this strong reputation as a clutch winner when you get to the postseason. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are always candidates. They obviously just, I'm worried about the Nuggets or the Lakers winning enough games. I think the Denver or Denver will probably win more games than LA. So I think Nicola has a better chance than Luca does. And Nicola has got that, like, you know, he always has insane statistical production. He usually has the best impact metrics in the NBA.
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Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 2: So like he kind of checks the boxes, like best player in the world, candidate, insane stats, you know, insane impact metrics, right. if the nuggets win enough games, he could get into the conversation. I just, I'm not sure. Like they're going to be six, seven, maybe even 10, 12 games behind OKC in San Antonio this year. So like that, that could just be too much for him to conquer. And same goes for Luca, like Luca, all those things. I, he's deeply valuable to his team. The roster is limitations that he's going to have to paper over. His statistical production is going to be nuts. Like, there's certainly a chance in there, but I just think the ceiling for the Lakers is the four seed. And with all those candidates that I just went over, it's hard to imagine a four seed winning the MVP in this type of, uh, field of candidates. But yeah, I think, I think Victor Weminyama is going to get it done. Like, easily the best impact metrics in the league per possession. He's arguably already the best regular season player in the league by a mile. He's young. He's up and coming. There's the highlights are going to be insane. The Spurs are going to win enough games. The on-off numbers are going to be insane. Like there's just, everything is kind of gearing up for him. Honestly, I, if he plays over 70 games, I, I put it at a near certainty that he wins MVP this season. Number three, I think records for these teams around the league are going to be worse. I was thinking about this a lot. I'm kind of late to this, to be frank. I did an on-off podcast with Sam Vecini over on his new show over at Barstool. And I was going over on a lot and under on a few. I was kind of doing the basic thing where you're over on half of them and under on half of them. And as the weeks went on after that, I started to think like, between the tanking stuff, like there's just way less incentive for tanking, right? Like you're, we're heading into a far weaker draft. this year than what we had last year. Like there's some, there's some interesting players. I saw some of the highlights of Terrence Stokes at Kansas, and he looks like this big physical monster that just attacks the rim constantly. And there's certainly some players at the top of the draft that are going to be fascinating, but it's not the depth of talent at the top of the draft that we had in last year's class. And then with the moves that Adam Silver's made to flatten out the, the lottery odds and actually incentivize you to climb out of Of the bottom of the standings. I think that's a big part of it. The depth of talent in the East. Like one of the things I always talk about on the show is people get focused on wind totals as a marker for how good teams are, but often it's an, it's more of an indicator of how talented the league is like. When the league goes through a phase of weakness, win totals for the top teams tend to get higher. When the league goes through a phase of strength of talent or depth of talent, win totals tend to get lower.
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Speaker 1: Why?
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Speaker 2: Because there's more random road games in February against a really good team where if you don't play your best basketball, you get beat. And that can drive down win totals. So like in the Eastern Conference, for example, I think there's 12 teams that are going to come out the gates thinking they're playoff teams. So there's going to be a lot of teams that just lose on any given night, even though they may be a better team in the big picture because the schedule is so brutal. Also, the bottom feeders that we have in the league are all pretty talented, and some of them have added talent and are better than you would think. Like, to me, Brooklyn, between bringing in Julius Randle, who's a strong regular season player, and just their overall depth of athleticism and defensive talent. And Jordy Fernandez has them playing really, really hard on the defensive end of the floor. Like Brooklyn's going to be feisty. And if you roll up into Brooklyn and you don't play your best basketball, you could get beat. Milwaukee has really strong guard play. Braden Burries has looked fantastic in preseason. You guys know, I like AJ Green and Ryan Rollins a lot. They've partnered those two guys with rim protection. That's a pretty strong foundation. If you can protect the rim and you got big physical athletic guards that can play on both ends of the floor, that's a pretty strong foundation. Chicago added rim protection with Nick Claxton. They have an offensive engine in Josh Giddey, which is a valuable regular season commodity. Lots of scoring on the wing with guys like Matas Bouzelis. and Caleb Wilson. Chicago's going to be a feisty team. Utah, way better than last year. Washington, way better than last year. Memphis, they've added talent. Dallas will be way better than last year. They added Kyrie Irving. I watched New Orleans the other day in a matchup against Washington in the preseason. And I was really impressed by that. Jamal Mosley is very good at motivating young players to play hard on defense. And he had those new Orleans Pelicans guys running around like crazy on the defensive end of the floor and causing some real problems for that Washington wizards offense. Jeremiah fears looks really good. Sadiq Bay shooting the hell out of the basketball. Like those are all teams that were, you know, relatively easy wins last year that I think are going to be tougher to beat this this year. So if the bottom feeders are more talented and are going to be playing harder and more incentivized to win every single night, if the depth of talent at the top of the league is deeper, and then in general, there's no incentive to lose. I think records all around the league are going to be worse. You're going to see basically a smooshing of the standings teams towards the bottom are going to win some more games and teams towards the top are going to lose some more games. I think for anybody in the league to win 50 games this year would be really impressive. We'll be right back. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in, and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or they'd take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports. Buying in and selling out on your terms. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. Better than DraftKings, FanDuel, Calshi, you name it. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code HOOPSTONIGHT. That's H-O-O-P-S-T-O-N-I-G-H-T when you sign up. That's HOOPSTONIGHT to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com slash TOS for more information. The Polymarket US app serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Number four, except for Sacramento. I think Sacramento is going to have the worst record in the league by a wide margin. All of the other bottom feeders have some kind of high-level talent that kind of gives them some upside on any given night. But the Kings are legitimately horrible. They have no defensive talent to speak of, at least no depth of defensive talent. Daquan Plowden has shown some upside as a point of attack guy. And they're certainly going to have nights where they play better than they're capable of. But this is not a team that brings talent to the table. I like Darius Acuff. I'm excited to watch him this year. I think he's going to put up some big numbers on some nights. Nick Clifford has shown a real growth as a playmaker so far in preseason. But with everyone in the league trying to win The Kings are going to be operating at a substantial talent disadvantage every single night. I also think it's in their best interest to buy out Zach Levine. I don't think they're going to be able to trade him. Maybe if Zach comes out and just has an insane start to the season, some team will throw down. But even if you're Sacramento, why would you want to take back salary for Zach Levine, right? I think it's more likely than not that they end up eventually buying out Zach Levine to try to free up more on-ball reps. for Darius Acuff and for Nick Clifford to try to see if you can see if there's anything there with Nick, right? So like Zach is, and Zach is frankly too good of a player to trap him in that type of situation. And so you send Zach out, your talent level goes down even further. I think there's a version of this season where Sacramento ends up many games, uh, behind the 29th best team in the league, like five, six games gap as the worst team in the NBA in a league where I think everyone's going to be better than people think. I think Sacramento is going to be a lot worse than people think. And then lastly today, number five, I think a mid-level star is going to change teams at some point this year and substantially alter the title landscape. I think we have three legitimate top-tier contenders right now that have a substantial chance to win. Obviously, OKC and San Antonio. My case for New York is pretty simple. I don't think they're going to separate in the standings at all from that East. As a matter of fact, like I'd be pretty surprised if they had a better regular season record than Boston, for example. But the unique thing that New York brings to the table is the spacing from the five position, like true five shooter lineups, which can really tax rim protection and put defenses in a bind when you get to the postseason. They also have a lot more going for them. Jalen Brunson can go toe to toe with any superstar. In the final five minutes of a close game, they have some of the best continuity in the league in terms of guys that have just been playing together for a long time. There's proof of concept, too. We literally saw them hoist the trophy last year. They match up great with San Antonio. That's a strong thing. uh, working in their corner. So like, I think those are the three teams that are your top tier contenders, so to speak, but we have several contenders, especially in the Eastern conference that feel like they're one piece or one move away from joining that group. Obviously Miami, I've talked about this throughout the preseason. If Zach Levine gets bought out and he signs with Miami, I think they're a top tier contender. Maybe they're able to make a move for a different high level ball handler at some point. this season. But I think if Miami gets a high level ball handler, they're right in that mix with those three teams, Boston, Boston made that Paul George trade. And everyone focuses on like, Oh, you send out Paul George, you bring back, or you send out Jalen Brown, you bring back Paul George. Maybe you're not as good, but not only is Paul George a better regular season fit with Boston, they got draft compensation back. Boston is very well positioned to be able to make a kind of splashy move at some point this season and to increase their talent level. I would do it for either a more reliable stretch five, which honestly there just aren't that many of them in the NBA or a rim pressure player, a player that can consistently beat people off the dribble, which I think would be extremely valuable with this particular team, Philadelphia. Like I think they're an underrated candidate for a trade this year. Why they have tons of draft compensation available. They have 10 second round picks. They have two first round. If I'm counting right, I think they have two first round picks available. And they have like real title or bust expectations in a rather short window. Like LeBron obviously turns 42 in December. Joel Embiid, this may be the last year or two that he's able to have any sort of impact on the title landscape. Jalen Brown just turned 30 years old, right? So, like, you have obviously some players that you're looking to the future with, obviously, in Tyrese Maxey and Vijay Edgecombe, but you got a lot of guys that are kind of like, hey, this is a win-now type of window. So, if the Sixers found themselves as the fifth or sixth seed with a gaping hole at a specific position that needed to get filled, like, say... Joel Embiid really isn't panning out or he gets hurt. Like they're going to throw everything on the table to go get a center. They just will. Like I think Philly is an underrated trade candidate this year. And then obviously Detroit, I've been saying this for a while, but Detroit is one move for a solid ball hand. Like if Detroit gets Devin Booker or Kyrie Irving, they're one of the top tier contenders in the league. Why? Because they're so big and physical in their frontline. And Kate is one of the top players in the NBA. Their point of attack defense is excellent. They've added jump shooting talent. They really just need a reliable secondary ball handler to join that mix. They were a mess last year on offense and they were like this close to getting to the conference finals. So I would, I would give, uh, I put Detroit in that group as well. The West kind of middle tier teams. And again, I'm talking about Denver, LA, Minnesota, and Houston here. They're a little less intriguing to me. All four of them have some pretty substantial flaws in Plus Denver, LA and Minnesota in particular are all pretty strapped in terms of their options. Like the Lakers can't do anything this year that will have a substantial impact on their title chances. Like this is essentially a gap year for them. Like I feel bad for Lakers fans because that's just the nature of the Rob Plank experience. You've been in a gap year forever, but I, I, this is a random tangent, but I saw a clip on, on Twitter going around. talking about just how good LeBron was at the back half of the 2024 season. And the stats that were in the tweet were a little inaccurate. His scoring averages were lower. They were around like 28 points per game, not like 31 points per game. But LeBron was like ridiculous over the final third of that season. He was like high 50s from the field, mid 40s from three, was averaging damn near a triple-double, was just ridiculously good as a jump shooter down the stretch of that season and played every bit as good In the postseason, Anthony Davis, that was his best season after the bubble. And what was funny about that is I was looking at that tweet is like, it is like widely understood that it was that season that Rob Palenka basically decided LeBron James and Anthony Davis weren't worth it. And they were like both like genuinely top 10 players in the NBA. And LeBron was like a top three player in the NBA at that point in time. And that's just like really the reason why they weren't close is because of the damn roster. It wasn't because of their stars. But just Rob Palenka looked at it and was like, no, I'm not interested. You know, and like it's just it's just been so it's I have to imagine it's been a frustrating experience for the Lakers. Another heading for a new era. And there's a lot of potential for them to kind of figure things out. over the coming years and maybe get closer into that mix. But I just think this is another gap year. So I don't think LA is going to make that sort of move. Minnesota is a very intriguing team, but they're super thin at the power forward position. And once again, they're very strapped in terms of their options. to make any sort of tweak throughout the season. So like if you get into the year and like Jonathan Kaminga turns out to be a terrible fit, they, they don't really have a, an option to pivot except for to just go small and play a lot of IO to soon move or hope that they get lucky that some high level Ford becomes available for cheap at some point, but that's probably not going to happen. That's one of the most valuable positions in the NBA. So LA and Minnesota, I don't really think are capable of taking that leap. So it really comes down to Denver, Houston, Houston is fascinating. I agree with most that I think they're going to be a lot better regular season team than people think. Obviously, I have my issues with their young core, but they're all going to get better this season. And it's not just their young core. It's their young core mixed with veteran talent. You know, Kevin Durant didn't play in the first round last year, and obviously he has his flaws. But you're a better basketball team when Kevin Durant is on the floor. Steven Adams is back into the mix, which will help them win on the margins more than they have. I think Fred Van Vliet and Bogdan Bogdanovich to a lesser extent, but especially Fred Van Vliet, it's gonna make a huge difference on a team that has desperately needed a point guard as we've seen over the course of the last, over the course of the last year. So like, I don't know what that move looks like for, for Houston. I was, I was talking with Jackson before we recorded, like what is, you know, in a Western conference where rim protection is so valuable and, And they don't really have rim protection. Are they the Anthony Davis team? Like, would that be a kind of a, an interesting way to try to give themselves a chance in the short term to, to, compete for a championship is bring in Anthony Davis and then just have this like monster rim protector alongside of men Thompson allowing Anthony Davis to stay back at the rim and drop coverage I know it's kind of a funky fit and there's some salary concerns that come with that but they're below the first apron so they don't necessarily have to match his salary and I don't know what that move looks like for Houston, but maybe Houston, they are situated with a lot of draft compensation and are capable of making a move. And then Denver, like, I don't know what that move is for Denver yet either. I think they really need physicality on the front line and athleticism at the forward spot. The thing is, is when you decide to let Peyton Watson go, The only case to do that when you have Nikola Jokic at his age and your attempts to try to win a championship is you get draft compensation back for Peyton Watson and you make an additional move to bolster the team and to try to win. My thing with Denver is I don't think Jokic is going anywhere. And I do think that they kind of look at the landscape this year and go, we may not have much of a chance. So they may be better served to just kind of hold off and wait for the perfect opportunity to to cash in their trade assets and give Nicole Yoke, it's one last championship window. So again, I kind of focus more on Miami, Boston, Philly, and Detroit as teams that can bump into that group long shots for Houston and Denver potentially, but in the Western conference, I think everyone, the thing with that you're facing in the West is pretty simple. Okay. See in San Antonio, barring catastrophic injury are going to be the one in two seats. So if you're sitting in the front office for Houston, or you're sitting in the front office for Denver or LA or Minnesota, you're looking at the situation and you're going in order for us to win the title this year, we have to be both of OKC and San Antonio on the road. And then we have to beat whatever monster comes out of the Eastern conference. So a lot of those teams, I think, are just going to look at the situation and go, not our year. Let's hold off Let's wait to see if, you know, case and Wallace just signed his new deal yesterday was five years, 139 million, you know, which averages just, just under 30 million a year. So like they're already a second apron team and they're going to be substantially strapped in their flexibility in the coming years. So like maybe okay. See next year or next summer, the summer after just trades Jalen Williams or trades Chet Holmgren and suddenly, okay. See becomes a more beatable team. That's when I think one of these teams from the middle tier of the Western Conference will go, now we think that we can get through OKC. We're just really worried about San Antonio. It's a little bit more incentivized for us to push our chips in and make a move. Now, the kinds of guys that are available, like Kyrie Irving, I think it's probably more likely than not that he gets traded this year. I do think it is in Washington's best interest to to trade Anthony Davis. It's complicated because I'm sure rich, rich Paul behind the scenes is going to be advocating for, uh, uh, for a new deal for ad, but like, maybe you can talk the talk, Anthony Davis into like a longer term, lower salary type of deal that kind of gives ad some security in a place where he can kind of settle in for the last phase of his career. Zach Levine via buyout. Like I said, I think, although if he gets bought out, I think it's almost a certainty that he'll go to either Detroit or Miami. Uh, and then Devin Booker, I think is another player that there's some chance, some small chance. He's the leader of that team. I think it's less with Booker because I think they really like the culture they're building there. But as we talked about, Phoenix was a really strong culture team last year that played super hard under Jordan Ott. And there were a lot of low-hanging fruit. There was a lot of wins that were there for the taking because of the situation with the tanking and the weak bottom third of the league last year. I think there's a version of the story. I took the under on Phoenix last in the over-under pot I did with Sam. I think there's a version of the season where Phoenix, you know, is more on like a 30-35 win pace. And then suddenly what ends up happening is they look at the situation and go, well, maybe we should capitalize on Devin Booker's value. So those are four guys. You know how it goes too. As we get into the season, there's always one or two guys that you wouldn't have expected to become available for trade that suddenly become available for trade. But the bottom line is, I think when we get to the end of the season, we will have at least a fourth and maybe even a fifth top tier contender. simply because we have some teams that are legitimately one move away from joining that tier of teams. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. I'm super, super excited for tonight's games. Again, we will be live on YouTube after the final buzzer of that epic showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I will see you guys then.
Speaker 1: All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume.
00:00:17
Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. Today is the day. I should say we're only a few hours away because of this bizarre start. The first game of the NBA season starts at noon Pacific time today. As the Boston Celtics kick the season off in Detroit against the Pistons. We will be live on YouTube later tonight reacting to all three of tonight's games. I hope to see you guys there. But today is just a little short teaser before we get started with the season. I wanted to go over five big predictions that I have for the season. We've done this over the last couple of years. Just some of the big picture thoughts that I have. coming into the year. You guys know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. We have a goal to get to 150,000 subs. I'd love to get there in the next couple of weeks. So it would help us a lot if you guys would take a second to scroll down and hit that subscribe button. If you're already subscribed, like this video and sign up for post notifications. We will be back doing mailbags starting next week. This week we are reacting to the Thursday night slate. So we will be doing a normal kind of instant reaction episode on Friday. But we'll get back into our mailbag starting next week. So if you guys want questions in the mailbags, drop them underneath these videos. Write mailbag colon and then write your question. We'll get to them. on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. Over on Substack, I had another new post today, yesterday, I should say, talking about my kind of journey into the sports media business. It was kind of a fun trip down memory lane. You guys might have fun with that one. Head over there and check that out. And then for Roan today, I'm wearing the Atmosphere Tee in shadow blue heather, as well as these Peacats, which I'm a big fan of. All right, let's talk some basketball. So first big prediction of the season, I think the 76ers are going to get humbled a little bit. early in the season, but I think it'll be good for them in the long run. As I've talked about in the, uh, uh, through a lot of our preseason content, I've had my frustrations with some of the things that I've seen from them. Obviously Joel and beads lost a lot of weight, uh, but he doesn't necessarily look particularly mobile as a trade-off from that exchange. Um, I do think that he will get better as the year goes along. I, the Joel's talked about this, that it's a process and I do think that there's some kind of intelligence to the approach of like, hey, let's not have Joel come into the season in peak shape, having put a bunch of additional wear and tear on his body before they even start playing basketball. So I think there's some I think there's some you could make a case that like him focusing on his diet and coming in light. And then building up the strength of his body over time is the right idea. But the point is, is I think early in the season, it's going to look a little rough for Joel. He did have a, a decent final preseason game where he got to the foul on a bunch, finally hit a couple of threes, had a big driving dunk on like this fake dribble handoff play where he called for a carry on the first one. And then probably should have gotten called for a carry on the second one, but didn't, but it was definitely a step in the right direction. I just think Joel is going to struggle, especially on defense. in the early chunk of the season. And then overall with the team, there's a general lack of defensive intensity, especially with the starters, that I think will have them a step behind some of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, at least better defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. And then lastly, whenever you put a bunch of brand new basketball players together, there tends to be growing pains. If you look at their schedule, and this isn't anything that is unique. I mean, if you look around the league, there's just a lot of teams that are really good that are trying to win. So this whole idea like, oh, we're heading into an easy stretch of our schedule. I'm not sure how many of those there's going to be for any team in the league. But the NBA schedule is brutal. And the Sixers have a lot of tough games early in the season. They got a couple of matchups with the Knicks in there. They have a couple of matchups with the Pistons in there. So I think there's a version of this story where we're looking at the Sixers and they're like, five and seven through 12 games or six and six through 12 games. And then there could be some panic and, you know, a lot of media criticism surrounding them, but I think it could be really good for them because one, they do have a lot of talent. They do have some guys in house that I think will, there's some things that will improve over the initial weeks of the season, like Joel Embiid and his conditioning and his rhythm, like some of just their play style stuff, kind of settling in as they kind of learn how to play alongside each other. In general, being humbled is good, especially for what this team is going to be on the defensive end of the floor. If we get through those 12 games and they have the 23rd best defensive rating in the NBA, that could be the motivation that Nick Nurse needs, the piece of motivation that he can put in front of his team to try to drive a little bit more effort, execution, and focus out of them on the defensive end of the floor. So I think they're going to get a little bit rocked early in the season, but I think it'll be good for them in the long run. This team still has a lot of talent. I'm just low on them, especially as an early part of the season team, because I think they're going to have a lot of things to figure out. One last little note, and this doesn't count as one of the top five predictions, but I think LeBron's on-off net rating is going to be absolutely outrageous. he greases the wheels for this team on both ends in such a big way. He's going to be their best backline defender. I think that could also go against them a little bit in the super early part of the season as the team in general has some defensive malaise. But when you look at kind of the way the usage is, I think LeBron's scoring average is going to tank. I think he's going to average something really low. Like I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron was below 15 points per game after the first month of the season and so if LeBron scoring is really low and the team has a clear defensive need he's ironically their like best tool with which to handle that because of his backline communication and anticipation so like he's very important to them on the defensive end of the floor I think he's their best transition player in terms of like actually making the kick ahead passes and pushing off of live rebounds that will get them some of their easy shots in the open floor And he's the best passer on the team by a mile on a team that will struggle to pass the ball at times. Already in preseason, the Sixers are plus 27 when he's on the floor and minus 53 with him off the floor. Now, some of that data is skewed by, you know, your best players aren't even playing for the most part over the course of the preseason. So it obviously won't be that dramatic, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pretty substantial on-off swing with LeBron, like borderline double digits type of of swing and with a positive impact on both ends of the floor. I'm really excited to tell you guys about our new partnership with Roan. As you guys know, I have to dress up for work every single day. So quality clothing is an absolute must have for me. You guys have seen me wear Roan for a while on the show now, and I've been incredibly impressed by them. For starters, their stuff actually fits me. I'm taller and I have longer arms. And so I often run into issues where like the arms are too short or like the barrel is too baggy. And one of the things I've been really appreciative of is Roan has this like modern slim fit style that fits me extremely well in a variety of different styles. And you guys will continue to see me wearing their stuff throughout this season on the show. Today I have on the rib crew neck sweater and dark espresso, literally my favorite sweater that I've ever put on. You guys have seen me wear Roan hats a lot on the show. Their peak hats in particular are my favorite. And you'll see me wear those just about every day, either on the show or when I'm out running errands. I'm just a huge fan of their stuff. And I can't recommend them enough to you guys. We have a very special offer for you guys. If you head over to Roan.com and you use code hoops tonight, you're going to get 20% off your first order. And when you check out, they're going to ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show. Please let them know. that we sent you. Head to rhone.com, that's R-H-O-N-E.com, and use code HOOPSTONIGHT for 20% off your first order. Terms apply. Number two, I think Victor Wemby is going to win his first career MVP award this year. I think there are eight legitimate candidates. The Wemby case is very simple. If he plays in at least 65 games, the Spurs are going to win at least 60 because the rest of the roster is too deep in guard play and just really young and athletic and very strong defensive foundation, right? So like if Wendy plays a lot, the Spurs are going to win a lot. It's a pretty simple equation there. I think the on off numbers and impact metrics will be insane. Why? Because he already had insane on off numbers and impact metrics. Like he's easily the best regular season player in the league by sheer winning impact per possession already. He cleared everybody last year by a mile in that category. So like the criticism surrounding him is more of like a playoff small sample thing, which for, In general, voters tend to be a lot more forgiving of when players are young early in their careers. So I think the Spurs are going to win a ton of games. If Victor Wemmion plays a lot and the on-off numbers are going to be insane, the impact metrics are going to be insane. There's a strong narrative because he's never actually won the award before. I think he's going to get it. Quickly ripping through the rest of the candidates. There's a lot of difficulty in winning three in a row for any player. and Shea is going to run into that this year. One, there's a healthier ball handling core around him, like if J-Dub plays, and obviously you have a full season of Jared McCain, you have a deeper group of younger players that can make some plays off the bounce, which I think will drive his scoring average down just a touch. Because of the injuries last year, Shea had to do more with the basketball. He shouldn't have to do quite as much this year. I also find myself thinking about what happened with Giannis where he wins these back-to-back MVPs in 2019 and in 2020 but people start to see your playoff struggles and it becomes like a thing where it's like oh you're having another dominant regular season that's cool but we've just seen that before. And then we see you get to the post season, your true shooting percentage tanks and your scoring average goes down and you've lost as the favorite a few times. So like maybe, maybe this isn't the right, you know, maybe this isn't the right time to give you a third MVP.
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Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 2: And I think you saw a very similar thing with Giannis in 2021. He, his field goal percentage goes up. His assist numbers go up. His turnovers go down. He was just a better basketball player. I mean, he won the championship that year and he won finals MVP that year, but he finished fourth in MVP voting. And I think that's something that we could see from, uh, uh, from Shea Gildas Alexander this year. Like he just has a great season and none of the voters care because they've been down that road before over the last couple of seasons. Shea certainly can win. Like there's a universe where, okay, see you win 65 games. Maybe when B gets hurt. So he doesn't get to 65 games and he's disqualified or the Spurs are don't win enough games. And there's a big gap in the standings that ends up being the differentiator. Maybe Shay averages 30 points on 70% true shooting. And it's like the first time we've ever seen a guard go for 30 points on 70% true shooting. It's certainly on the table. Shay has a great chance. I just think the bar is extremely high for him. ripping through some of these other candidates. I think Jason Tatum has a shot. Like if Boston wins 55 games in a crowded Eastern conference and gets the one seed, and he finally breaks out as a three point shooter, something he's been working on for years and averages like 30, 10 and seven on 62% true shooting. And the on-offs are crazy. And the impact metrics are crazy. It's just my thing with Tatum is just really hard for him to keep up with the top guys, but I think he's got a decent shot. Cade, obviously, if he can maintain his playoff production, the strongest case for him is he's got that most valuable case. This is a team that does not have any reliable ball handling after him. He's essentially their entire offense in the half court outside of when they can get into their defense to transition sequences. He has a lot of like, there's a strong narrative that he's carrying the heaviest load offensively in the NBA. So like if Cade can take the playoff production that he had, over the course of those two rounds last year, and he can turn it into this strong regular season statistically, I think he's got a shot to be able to get the MVP this year. Giannis has a great shot. Starts with kind of the basic things that we always talk about. You got to produce at a top tier superstar level. We know Giannis is going to do that. I actually argue his offensive numbers will be off the charts this year because that's going to be his biggest job on the team. He's got really strong defensive personnel around him. I think Spolster is going to try to find some ways to make his life a little bit easier on that end of the floor. And then he's going to be constantly in transition off of misses and turnovers. And then in the half court, they're going to lean heavily on his rim pressure and his playmaking. Like, I think there's a good chance Giannis averages like 32 points and seven assists per game this year. And if he does that in Miami breaks out and they end up near the top of the standings or at the top of the standings, I think they've got a great chance to win. There's also a strong narrative there, right? Like he comes in and turns a perennial playoff or play in team from the last few years into like this bonafide top tier contender. He's going to have strong on off numbers. He's going to have strong impact metrics. I think the, the offensive on off numbers could push into double digits for him. So I think Giannis is great shot. some of the smaller chances like Tyrese Halliburton, right? Strong narrative. He's brings his team to within a tiny distance of the NBA championship, but then he gets injured and the team completely falls apart. But then he comes back and then suddenly they're great. You know, they're a top two seed in the East or something like that. And, Once again, strong impact metrics and on-off numbers. And he has a strong playoff reputation, which I think works in his favor. People view Tyrese Halliburton as a better basketball player than even his statistical performance because he's one of the best offensive engines in the NBA. And he's got this strong reputation as a clutch winner when you get to the postseason. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are always candidates. They obviously just, I'm worried about the Nuggets or the Lakers winning enough games. I think the Denver or Denver will probably win more games than LA. So I think Nicola has a better chance than Luca does. And Nicola has got that, like, you know, he always has insane statistical production. He usually has the best impact metrics in the NBA.
00:14:15
Speaker 1: Right.
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Speaker 2: So like he kind of checks the boxes, like best player in the world, candidate, insane stats, you know, insane impact metrics, right. if the nuggets win enough games, he could get into the conversation. I just, I'm not sure. Like they're going to be six, seven, maybe even 10, 12 games behind OKC in San Antonio this year. So like that, that could just be too much for him to conquer. And same goes for Luca, like Luca, all those things. I, he's deeply valuable to his team. The roster is limitations that he's going to have to paper over. His statistical production is going to be nuts. Like, there's certainly a chance in there, but I just think the ceiling for the Lakers is the four seed. And with all those candidates that I just went over, it's hard to imagine a four seed winning the MVP in this type of, uh, field of candidates. But yeah, I think, I think Victor Weminyama is going to get it done. Like, easily the best impact metrics in the league per possession. He's arguably already the best regular season player in the league by a mile. He's young. He's up and coming. There's the highlights are going to be insane. The Spurs are going to win enough games. The on-off numbers are going to be insane. Like there's just, everything is kind of gearing up for him. Honestly, I, if he plays over 70 games, I, I put it at a near certainty that he wins MVP this season. Number three, I think records for these teams around the league are going to be worse. I was thinking about this a lot. I'm kind of late to this, to be frank. I did an on-off podcast with Sam Vecini over on his new show over at Barstool. And I was going over on a lot and under on a few. I was kind of doing the basic thing where you're over on half of them and under on half of them. And as the weeks went on after that, I started to think like, between the tanking stuff, like there's just way less incentive for tanking, right? Like you're, we're heading into a far weaker draft. this year than what we had last year. Like there's some, there's some interesting players. I saw some of the highlights of Terrence Stokes at Kansas, and he looks like this big physical monster that just attacks the rim constantly. And there's certainly some players at the top of the draft that are going to be fascinating, but it's not the depth of talent at the top of the draft that we had in last year's class. And then with the moves that Adam Silver's made to flatten out the, the lottery odds and actually incentivize you to climb out of Of the bottom of the standings. I think that's a big part of it. The depth of talent in the East. Like one of the things I always talk about on the show is people get focused on wind totals as a marker for how good teams are, but often it's an, it's more of an indicator of how talented the league is like. When the league goes through a phase of weakness, win totals for the top teams tend to get higher. When the league goes through a phase of strength of talent or depth of talent, win totals tend to get lower.
00:17:01
Speaker 1: Why?
00:17:01
Speaker 2: Because there's more random road games in February against a really good team where if you don't play your best basketball, you get beat. And that can drive down win totals. So like in the Eastern Conference, for example, I think there's 12 teams that are going to come out the gates thinking they're playoff teams. So there's going to be a lot of teams that just lose on any given night, even though they may be a better team in the big picture because the schedule is so brutal. Also, the bottom feeders that we have in the league are all pretty talented, and some of them have added talent and are better than you would think. Like, to me, Brooklyn, between bringing in Julius Randle, who's a strong regular season player, and just their overall depth of athleticism and defensive talent. And Jordy Fernandez has them playing really, really hard on the defensive end of the floor. Like Brooklyn's going to be feisty. And if you roll up into Brooklyn and you don't play your best basketball, you could get beat. Milwaukee has really strong guard play. Braden Burries has looked fantastic in preseason. You guys know, I like AJ Green and Ryan Rollins a lot. They've partnered those two guys with rim protection. That's a pretty strong foundation. If you can protect the rim and you got big physical athletic guards that can play on both ends of the floor, that's a pretty strong foundation. Chicago added rim protection with Nick Claxton. They have an offensive engine in Josh Giddey, which is a valuable regular season commodity. Lots of scoring on the wing with guys like Matas Bouzelis. and Caleb Wilson. Chicago's going to be a feisty team. Utah, way better than last year. Washington, way better than last year. Memphis, they've added talent. Dallas will be way better than last year. They added Kyrie Irving. I watched New Orleans the other day in a matchup against Washington in the preseason. And I was really impressed by that. Jamal Mosley is very good at motivating young players to play hard on defense. And he had those new Orleans Pelicans guys running around like crazy on the defensive end of the floor and causing some real problems for that Washington wizards offense. Jeremiah fears looks really good. Sadiq Bay shooting the hell out of the basketball. Like those are all teams that were, you know, relatively easy wins last year that I think are going to be tougher to beat this this year. So if the bottom feeders are more talented and are going to be playing harder and more incentivized to win every single night, if the depth of talent at the top of the league is deeper, and then in general, there's no incentive to lose. I think records all around the league are going to be worse. You're going to see basically a smooshing of the standings teams towards the bottom are going to win some more games and teams towards the top are going to lose some more games. I think for anybody in the league to win 50 games this year would be really impressive. We'll be right back. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in, and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or they'd take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports. Buying in and selling out on your terms. Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. Better than DraftKings, FanDuel, Calshi, you name it. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code HOOPSTONIGHT. That's H-O-O-P-S-T-O-N-I-G-H-T when you sign up. That's HOOPSTONIGHT to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com slash TOS for more information. The Polymarket US app serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization. Number four, except for Sacramento. I think Sacramento is going to have the worst record in the league by a wide margin. All of the other bottom feeders have some kind of high-level talent that kind of gives them some upside on any given night. But the Kings are legitimately horrible. They have no defensive talent to speak of, at least no depth of defensive talent. Daquan Plowden has shown some upside as a point of attack guy. And they're certainly going to have nights where they play better than they're capable of. But this is not a team that brings talent to the table. I like Darius Acuff. I'm excited to watch him this year. I think he's going to put up some big numbers on some nights. Nick Clifford has shown a real growth as a playmaker so far in preseason. But with everyone in the league trying to win The Kings are going to be operating at a substantial talent disadvantage every single night. I also think it's in their best interest to buy out Zach Levine. I don't think they're going to be able to trade him. Maybe if Zach comes out and just has an insane start to the season, some team will throw down. But even if you're Sacramento, why would you want to take back salary for Zach Levine, right? I think it's more likely than not that they end up eventually buying out Zach Levine to try to free up more on-ball reps. for Darius Acuff and for Nick Clifford to try to see if you can see if there's anything there with Nick, right? So like Zach is, and Zach is frankly too good of a player to trap him in that type of situation. And so you send Zach out, your talent level goes down even further. I think there's a version of this season where Sacramento ends up many games, uh, behind the 29th best team in the league, like five, six games gap as the worst team in the NBA in a league where I think everyone's going to be better than people think. I think Sacramento is going to be a lot worse than people think. And then lastly today, number five, I think a mid-level star is going to change teams at some point this year and substantially alter the title landscape. I think we have three legitimate top-tier contenders right now that have a substantial chance to win. Obviously, OKC and San Antonio. My case for New York is pretty simple. I don't think they're going to separate in the standings at all from that East. As a matter of fact, like I'd be pretty surprised if they had a better regular season record than Boston, for example. But the unique thing that New York brings to the table is the spacing from the five position, like true five shooter lineups, which can really tax rim protection and put defenses in a bind when you get to the postseason. They also have a lot more going for them. Jalen Brunson can go toe to toe with any superstar. In the final five minutes of a close game, they have some of the best continuity in the league in terms of guys that have just been playing together for a long time. There's proof of concept, too. We literally saw them hoist the trophy last year. They match up great with San Antonio. That's a strong thing. uh, working in their corner. So like, I think those are the three teams that are your top tier contenders, so to speak, but we have several contenders, especially in the Eastern conference that feel like they're one piece or one move away from joining that group. Obviously Miami, I've talked about this throughout the preseason. If Zach Levine gets bought out and he signs with Miami, I think they're a top tier contender. Maybe they're able to make a move for a different high level ball handler at some point. this season. But I think if Miami gets a high level ball handler, they're right in that mix with those three teams, Boston, Boston made that Paul George trade. And everyone focuses on like, Oh, you send out Paul George, you bring back, or you send out Jalen Brown, you bring back Paul George. Maybe you're not as good, but not only is Paul George a better regular season fit with Boston, they got draft compensation back. Boston is very well positioned to be able to make a kind of splashy move at some point this season and to increase their talent level. I would do it for either a more reliable stretch five, which honestly there just aren't that many of them in the NBA or a rim pressure player, a player that can consistently beat people off the dribble, which I think would be extremely valuable with this particular team, Philadelphia. Like I think they're an underrated candidate for a trade this year. Why they have tons of draft compensation available. They have 10 second round picks. They have two first round. If I'm counting right, I think they have two first round picks available. And they have like real title or bust expectations in a rather short window. Like LeBron obviously turns 42 in December. Joel Embiid, this may be the last year or two that he's able to have any sort of impact on the title landscape. Jalen Brown just turned 30 years old, right? So, like, you have obviously some players that you're looking to the future with, obviously, in Tyrese Maxey and Vijay Edgecombe, but you got a lot of guys that are kind of like, hey, this is a win-now type of window. So, if the Sixers found themselves as the fifth or sixth seed with a gaping hole at a specific position that needed to get filled, like, say... Joel Embiid really isn't panning out or he gets hurt. Like they're going to throw everything on the table to go get a center. They just will. Like I think Philly is an underrated trade candidate this year. And then obviously Detroit, I've been saying this for a while, but Detroit is one move for a solid ball hand. Like if Detroit gets Devin Booker or Kyrie Irving, they're one of the top tier contenders in the league. Why? Because they're so big and physical in their frontline. And Kate is one of the top players in the NBA. Their point of attack defense is excellent. They've added jump shooting talent. They really just need a reliable secondary ball handler to join that mix. They were a mess last year on offense and they were like this close to getting to the conference finals. So I would, I would give, uh, I put Detroit in that group as well. The West kind of middle tier teams. And again, I'm talking about Denver, LA, Minnesota, and Houston here. They're a little less intriguing to me. All four of them have some pretty substantial flaws in Plus Denver, LA and Minnesota in particular are all pretty strapped in terms of their options. Like the Lakers can't do anything this year that will have a substantial impact on their title chances. Like this is essentially a gap year for them. Like I feel bad for Lakers fans because that's just the nature of the Rob Plank experience. You've been in a gap year forever, but I, I, this is a random tangent, but I saw a clip on, on Twitter going around. talking about just how good LeBron was at the back half of the 2024 season. And the stats that were in the tweet were a little inaccurate. His scoring averages were lower. They were around like 28 points per game, not like 31 points per game. But LeBron was like ridiculous over the final third of that season. He was like high 50s from the field, mid 40s from three, was averaging damn near a triple-double, was just ridiculously good as a jump shooter down the stretch of that season and played every bit as good In the postseason, Anthony Davis, that was his best season after the bubble. And what was funny about that is I was looking at that tweet is like, it is like widely understood that it was that season that Rob Palenka basically decided LeBron James and Anthony Davis weren't worth it. And they were like both like genuinely top 10 players in the NBA. And LeBron was like a top three player in the NBA at that point in time. And that's just like really the reason why they weren't close is because of the damn roster. It wasn't because of their stars. But just Rob Palenka looked at it and was like, no, I'm not interested. You know, and like it's just it's just been so it's I have to imagine it's been a frustrating experience for the Lakers. Another heading for a new era. And there's a lot of potential for them to kind of figure things out. over the coming years and maybe get closer into that mix. But I just think this is another gap year. So I don't think LA is going to make that sort of move. Minnesota is a very intriguing team, but they're super thin at the power forward position. And once again, they're very strapped in terms of their options. to make any sort of tweak throughout the season. So like if you get into the year and like Jonathan Kaminga turns out to be a terrible fit, they, they don't really have a, an option to pivot except for to just go small and play a lot of IO to soon move or hope that they get lucky that some high level Ford becomes available for cheap at some point, but that's probably not going to happen. That's one of the most valuable positions in the NBA. So LA and Minnesota, I don't really think are capable of taking that leap. So it really comes down to Denver, Houston, Houston is fascinating. I agree with most that I think they're going to be a lot better regular season team than people think. Obviously, I have my issues with their young core, but they're all going to get better this season. And it's not just their young core. It's their young core mixed with veteran talent. You know, Kevin Durant didn't play in the first round last year, and obviously he has his flaws. But you're a better basketball team when Kevin Durant is on the floor. Steven Adams is back into the mix, which will help them win on the margins more than they have. I think Fred Van Vliet and Bogdan Bogdanovich to a lesser extent, but especially Fred Van Vliet, it's gonna make a huge difference on a team that has desperately needed a point guard as we've seen over the course of the last, over the course of the last year. So like, I don't know what that move looks like for, for Houston. I was, I was talking with Jackson before we recorded, like what is, you know, in a Western conference where rim protection is so valuable and, And they don't really have rim protection. Are they the Anthony Davis team? Like, would that be a kind of a, an interesting way to try to give themselves a chance in the short term to, to, compete for a championship is bring in Anthony Davis and then just have this like monster rim protector alongside of men Thompson allowing Anthony Davis to stay back at the rim and drop coverage I know it's kind of a funky fit and there's some salary concerns that come with that but they're below the first apron so they don't necessarily have to match his salary and I don't know what that move looks like for Houston, but maybe Houston, they are situated with a lot of draft compensation and are capable of making a move. And then Denver, like, I don't know what that move is for Denver yet either. I think they really need physicality on the front line and athleticism at the forward spot. The thing is, is when you decide to let Peyton Watson go, The only case to do that when you have Nikola Jokic at his age and your attempts to try to win a championship is you get draft compensation back for Peyton Watson and you make an additional move to bolster the team and to try to win. My thing with Denver is I don't think Jokic is going anywhere. And I do think that they kind of look at the landscape this year and go, we may not have much of a chance. So they may be better served to just kind of hold off and wait for the perfect opportunity to to cash in their trade assets and give Nicole Yoke, it's one last championship window. So again, I kind of focus more on Miami, Boston, Philly, and Detroit as teams that can bump into that group long shots for Houston and Denver potentially, but in the Western conference, I think everyone, the thing with that you're facing in the West is pretty simple. Okay. See in San Antonio, barring catastrophic injury are going to be the one in two seats. So if you're sitting in the front office for Houston, or you're sitting in the front office for Denver or LA or Minnesota, you're looking at the situation and you're going in order for us to win the title this year, we have to be both of OKC and San Antonio on the road. And then we have to beat whatever monster comes out of the Eastern conference. So a lot of those teams, I think, are just going to look at the situation and go, not our year. Let's hold off Let's wait to see if, you know, case and Wallace just signed his new deal yesterday was five years, 139 million, you know, which averages just, just under 30 million a year. So like they're already a second apron team and they're going to be substantially strapped in their flexibility in the coming years. So like maybe okay. See next year or next summer, the summer after just trades Jalen Williams or trades Chet Holmgren and suddenly, okay. See becomes a more beatable team. That's when I think one of these teams from the middle tier of the Western Conference will go, now we think that we can get through OKC. We're just really worried about San Antonio. It's a little bit more incentivized for us to push our chips in and make a move. Now, the kinds of guys that are available, like Kyrie Irving, I think it's probably more likely than not that he gets traded this year. I do think it is in Washington's best interest to to trade Anthony Davis. It's complicated because I'm sure rich, rich Paul behind the scenes is going to be advocating for, uh, uh, for a new deal for ad, but like, maybe you can talk the talk, Anthony Davis into like a longer term, lower salary type of deal that kind of gives ad some security in a place where he can kind of settle in for the last phase of his career. Zach Levine via buyout. Like I said, I think, although if he gets bought out, I think it's almost a certainty that he'll go to either Detroit or Miami. Uh, and then Devin Booker, I think is another player that there's some chance, some small chance. He's the leader of that team. I think it's less with Booker because I think they really like the culture they're building there. But as we talked about, Phoenix was a really strong culture team last year that played super hard under Jordan Ott. And there were a lot of low-hanging fruit. There was a lot of wins that were there for the taking because of the situation with the tanking and the weak bottom third of the league last year. I think there's a version of the story. I took the under on Phoenix last in the over-under pot I did with Sam. I think there's a version of the season where Phoenix, you know, is more on like a 30-35 win pace. And then suddenly what ends up happening is they look at the situation and go, well, maybe we should capitalize on Devin Booker's value. So those are four guys. You know how it goes too. As we get into the season, there's always one or two guys that you wouldn't have expected to become available for trade that suddenly become available for trade. But the bottom line is, I think when we get to the end of the season, we will have at least a fourth and maybe even a fifth top tier contender. simply because we have some teams that are legitimately one move away from joining that tier of teams. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. I'm super, super excited for tonight's games. Again, we will be live on YouTube after the final buzzer of that epic showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I will see you guys then.
