00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're with John Perlman on 702.
00:00:04
Speaker 2: 18 past five, local government elections just over a week away and just in time. A new election survey. It's the work of ENCA and Mark Data. And there's some very, very interesting numbers indeed. Let's go through at least some of them and welcome to the show, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman. Wayne, a very good afternoon to you. I want to start in Joburg. Your figures have the DA at 35, which is higher than I think the News 24 poll had them. The ANC at 22, MK Party and EFF fairly close. MK Party 12.5, EFF 12. Action SA 10 and the Patriotic Alliance 3.7. Who gets to govern? I'm not sure how you put coalitions together with those numbers. Good afternoon to you.
00:00:55
Speaker 1: Thank you, John. Correct. I think it's going to be.
00:01:00
Speaker 1: Chaotic negotiations. Remember, you only.
00:01:02
Speaker 3: Have 14 days once the results are tabled to form those coalitions, so it doesn't leave a lot of time. I think right now, if you were to take the ENCA Mark Data poll, the scenarios on the table would be Government of National Unity Light, i.e. the DA and the ANC. Another option could be the same old, same old, which would be the ANC, the EFF, Patriotic Alliance, Al-Jamaa, and some other political parties. Another option, John, could be the DA, the Freedom Front, Action SA, and the PA, but we know right now there's not a lot of Christmas cards going between the DA and Action SA and the DA and the PA.
00:01:45
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:01:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't see how the ANC, and guide me with the numbers, unless they... Do they have a route to a coalition government without the MK party? The numbers look very tight to me.
00:02:02
Speaker 1: It will be difficult.
00:02:04
Speaker 3: And that's the million-dollar question, is how will the ANC approach Mkonto e Siswe after this election if they do want to form a stable coalition without the Democratic Alliance? Because the Democratic Alliance is, according to the polls, expected to grow in this election. And a lot of those roots, John, you're 100% correct, do go via Mkonto e Siswe, who are expected to grow in this particular election. So that is the million-dollar question. Is the ANC going to choose to work with the DA or choose to work with Mkonto S-Israel? If I look at the numbers quickly, John, you are 100% correct.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: It's a very.
00:02:46
Speaker 3: Unstable, unwieldy coalition because in Johannesburg, Mkonto S-Israel is on 13%. If you take the DA's 35% and Umkonto, which is where it's 13%, we know the Freedom Front are very unlikely to go into coalition with the ANC if the DA don't. So you're 100% right. In the city of Johannesburg, it looks like an unwieldy solution.
00:03:10
Speaker 2: Let's go to Tswane, the DA, very similar again, according to your poll, very similar to Joburg, 34%. I'll just run through the next six parties. ANC 25, EFF 12, Action SA 11, Freedom Front Plus 8, MK Party 5, not as strong as in Joburg, and the Patriotic Alliance with just 2%. Similar scenario and the same set of questions with unclear answers.
00:03:40
Speaker 1: Correct.
00:03:40
Speaker 3: And just to take a step back, in Trani it's quite clear that the ANC is losing votes to the EFF, to Action SA, to Mkonto S-Israel and the DA. So it's going in all directions. And again here, the simplest would probably be a government of national unity between the two largest parties. But if the ANC wanted to work with the EFF and Action SA, they would probably need to go knocking on Mkonto S's door again. So this becomes complicated stuff if these results hold out. Because again, just to do the math, the DA on 34, Freedom Front Plus on 8, that's 42.
00:04:17
Speaker 1: Mkonto S's were on 5.
00:04:18
Speaker 3: Around that 47% mark, it's hard to form a stable coalition without one of those parties involved.
00:04:28
Speaker 1: And it'll be similar in the East Rand as well, in Nekuruleni. Yeah.
00:04:32
Speaker 2: Let's have a break from Gauteng and its indeterminate solutions. I find the Cape Town numbers interesting. DA at 52.6, rounded up to 53.
00:04:41
Speaker 1: The ANC.
00:04:46
Speaker 2: Am I wrong in saying stronger than I've known them to be in the Western Cape in the past? They're at 24. And the Patriotic Alliance, which we've discussed many times, Wayne, really making hay in places like Georgian Oats, but somehow not making a dent in Cape Town, which is pretty much what News 24 found as well.
00:05:07
Speaker 1: Correct, John.
00:05:07
Speaker 3: I was surprised at the ANC's robust numbers. We know nationwide in 2024, 24, The Western Cape was a major challenge and the city of Cape Town. The ANC lost about 33% of its support, a third of its support in the city of Cape Town. So the polls showing them to grow, I was surprised, but I mean, I trust.
00:05:29
Speaker 3: The sampling methodology of this poll, but the Democratic Alliance holding on. But again, what this poll suggests is that on the Cape Flats, in areas like Mitchell's Plain and Athlone, that some of that DA support is going to the PA, some to the National Colored Congress, some to Al-Jamaa, some to Action SA. Right. A bit like what's happening to the ANC in the Ghateng townships, going in all directions, not in one particular direction.
00:05:54
Speaker 1: Right.
00:05:54
Speaker 2: And Itagwini, you don't find the MK Party absolutely over the line, but very close to it at 48%. If I'm correct in my recollection, higher than News24 found them. That could be a time issue in that the MK Party's gaining some ground. They don't quite have 50, but if they're going to get 50, is there a little package of smaller parties, the NFP, for example, that might get them over 50? And reasonably comfortably so, I would think, because 50 plus one probably won't do it.
00:06:31
Speaker 1: Correct.
00:06:32
Speaker 3: So get ready, I think, to say the name, Mayor Nkolisi Pakati, who's formerly from the ATM, who's the Mkonto Esizwe's mayoral candidate in Etaqueni.
00:06:43
Speaker 1: You've got the EFF, you can get them over the line. And remember.
00:06:46
Speaker 3: If you want to see a whole host of one-seat parties, look right at Etiquette. And if my memory serves you correctly, John, I think there are 12 parties with one seats now. So if Mkwantu Isizwe is going to get near that 48% mark, they will be very confident of forming a coalition and leading the third largest metropolitan municipality in South Africa after these local government elections.
00:07:11
Speaker 2: And just finally, a broad question, Wayne, and briefly, if you can. We're talking about unstable coalitions. Of course, you can have a coalition, and then it becomes increasingly unstable when it sets about the business of actually governing. Coalitions built on who you dislike the least, I would have thought, don't necessarily produce particularly good governance.
00:07:37
Speaker 3: Correct, because ultimately you can be brought down by one or two seat political parties who can hold the balance of power and throw their weight around. And by the way, in the ENCA Mark Data Survey, one of the most interesting questions is the, and I know I'm going to be quick, is the view of municipalities over the last five years. And typically where we've seen smaller parties prop up the ANC and there's been this perception of coalitions of chaos, the respondents in the survey were very negative towards those municipalities.
00:08:07
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:08:07
Speaker 2: Thanks so much. It's a fascinating study. Go onto the ENCA website, check it out, and look at some of those numbers and does it accord what we've shared with you with what people are saying in your friendship and work circles? I'd be keen to know.
00:08:21
Speaker 1: 26 past five.
Speaker 1: You're with John Perlman on 702.
00:00:04
Speaker 2: 18 past five, local government elections just over a week away and just in time. A new election survey. It's the work of ENCA and Mark Data. And there's some very, very interesting numbers indeed. Let's go through at least some of them and welcome to the show, Elections Analyst Wayne Sussman. Wayne, a very good afternoon to you. I want to start in Joburg. Your figures have the DA at 35, which is higher than I think the News 24 poll had them. The ANC at 22, MK Party and EFF fairly close. MK Party 12.5, EFF 12. Action SA 10 and the Patriotic Alliance 3.7. Who gets to govern? I'm not sure how you put coalitions together with those numbers. Good afternoon to you.
00:00:55
Speaker 1: Thank you, John. Correct. I think it's going to be.
00:01:00
Speaker 1: Chaotic negotiations. Remember, you only.
00:01:02
Speaker 3: Have 14 days once the results are tabled to form those coalitions, so it doesn't leave a lot of time. I think right now, if you were to take the ENCA Mark Data poll, the scenarios on the table would be Government of National Unity Light, i.e. the DA and the ANC. Another option could be the same old, same old, which would be the ANC, the EFF, Patriotic Alliance, Al-Jamaa, and some other political parties. Another option, John, could be the DA, the Freedom Front, Action SA, and the PA, but we know right now there's not a lot of Christmas cards going between the DA and Action SA and the DA and the PA.
00:01:45
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:01:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't see how the ANC, and guide me with the numbers, unless they... Do they have a route to a coalition government without the MK party? The numbers look very tight to me.
00:02:02
Speaker 1: It will be difficult.
00:02:04
Speaker 3: And that's the million-dollar question, is how will the ANC approach Mkonto e Siswe after this election if they do want to form a stable coalition without the Democratic Alliance? Because the Democratic Alliance is, according to the polls, expected to grow in this election. And a lot of those roots, John, you're 100% correct, do go via Mkonto e Siswe, who are expected to grow in this particular election. So that is the million-dollar question. Is the ANC going to choose to work with the DA or choose to work with Mkonto S-Israel? If I look at the numbers quickly, John, you are 100% correct.
00:02:44
Speaker 1: It's a very.
00:02:46
Speaker 3: Unstable, unwieldy coalition because in Johannesburg, Mkonto S-Israel is on 13%. If you take the DA's 35% and Umkonto, which is where it's 13%, we know the Freedom Front are very unlikely to go into coalition with the ANC if the DA don't. So you're 100% right. In the city of Johannesburg, it looks like an unwieldy solution.
00:03:10
Speaker 2: Let's go to Tswane, the DA, very similar again, according to your poll, very similar to Joburg, 34%. I'll just run through the next six parties. ANC 25, EFF 12, Action SA 11, Freedom Front Plus 8, MK Party 5, not as strong as in Joburg, and the Patriotic Alliance with just 2%. Similar scenario and the same set of questions with unclear answers.
00:03:40
Speaker 1: Correct.
00:03:40
Speaker 3: And just to take a step back, in Trani it's quite clear that the ANC is losing votes to the EFF, to Action SA, to Mkonto S-Israel and the DA. So it's going in all directions. And again here, the simplest would probably be a government of national unity between the two largest parties. But if the ANC wanted to work with the EFF and Action SA, they would probably need to go knocking on Mkonto S's door again. So this becomes complicated stuff if these results hold out. Because again, just to do the math, the DA on 34, Freedom Front Plus on 8, that's 42.
00:04:17
Speaker 1: Mkonto S's were on 5.
00:04:18
Speaker 3: Around that 47% mark, it's hard to form a stable coalition without one of those parties involved.
00:04:28
Speaker 1: And it'll be similar in the East Rand as well, in Nekuruleni. Yeah.
00:04:32
Speaker 2: Let's have a break from Gauteng and its indeterminate solutions. I find the Cape Town numbers interesting. DA at 52.6, rounded up to 53.
00:04:41
Speaker 1: The ANC.
00:04:46
Speaker 2: Am I wrong in saying stronger than I've known them to be in the Western Cape in the past? They're at 24. And the Patriotic Alliance, which we've discussed many times, Wayne, really making hay in places like Georgian Oats, but somehow not making a dent in Cape Town, which is pretty much what News 24 found as well.
00:05:07
Speaker 1: Correct, John.
00:05:07
Speaker 3: I was surprised at the ANC's robust numbers. We know nationwide in 2024, 24, The Western Cape was a major challenge and the city of Cape Town. The ANC lost about 33% of its support, a third of its support in the city of Cape Town. So the polls showing them to grow, I was surprised, but I mean, I trust.
00:05:29
Speaker 3: The sampling methodology of this poll, but the Democratic Alliance holding on. But again, what this poll suggests is that on the Cape Flats, in areas like Mitchell's Plain and Athlone, that some of that DA support is going to the PA, some to the National Colored Congress, some to Al-Jamaa, some to Action SA. Right. A bit like what's happening to the ANC in the Ghateng townships, going in all directions, not in one particular direction.
00:05:54
Speaker 1: Right.
00:05:54
Speaker 2: And Itagwini, you don't find the MK Party absolutely over the line, but very close to it at 48%. If I'm correct in my recollection, higher than News24 found them. That could be a time issue in that the MK Party's gaining some ground. They don't quite have 50, but if they're going to get 50, is there a little package of smaller parties, the NFP, for example, that might get them over 50? And reasonably comfortably so, I would think, because 50 plus one probably won't do it.
00:06:31
Speaker 1: Correct.
00:06:32
Speaker 3: So get ready, I think, to say the name, Mayor Nkolisi Pakati, who's formerly from the ATM, who's the Mkonto Esizwe's mayoral candidate in Etaqueni.
00:06:43
Speaker 1: You've got the EFF, you can get them over the line. And remember.
00:06:46
Speaker 3: If you want to see a whole host of one-seat parties, look right at Etiquette. And if my memory serves you correctly, John, I think there are 12 parties with one seats now. So if Mkwantu Isizwe is going to get near that 48% mark, they will be very confident of forming a coalition and leading the third largest metropolitan municipality in South Africa after these local government elections.
00:07:11
Speaker 2: And just finally, a broad question, Wayne, and briefly, if you can. We're talking about unstable coalitions. Of course, you can have a coalition, and then it becomes increasingly unstable when it sets about the business of actually governing. Coalitions built on who you dislike the least, I would have thought, don't necessarily produce particularly good governance.
00:07:37
Speaker 3: Correct, because ultimately you can be brought down by one or two seat political parties who can hold the balance of power and throw their weight around. And by the way, in the ENCA Mark Data Survey, one of the most interesting questions is the, and I know I'm going to be quick, is the view of municipalities over the last five years. And typically where we've seen smaller parties prop up the ANC and there's been this perception of coalitions of chaos, the respondents in the survey were very negative towards those municipalities.
00:08:07
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:08:07
Speaker 2: Thanks so much. It's a fascinating study. Go onto the ENCA website, check it out, and look at some of those numbers and does it accord what we've shared with you with what people are saying in your friendship and work circles? I'd be keen to know.
00:08:21
Speaker 1: 26 past five.
