Oaktree Capital's Olivia Guthorn on finding value in stressed healthcare credit, sizing AI risk, and lessons from two decades of opportunistic investing

In this episode, Olivia Guthorn, Managing Director in Oaktree's Opportunities Group, describes a credit market at all-time tights that appears to be looking through potentially significant macro risks, while meaningful dispersion builds underneath, particularly in healthcare IT and software. Olivia outlines Oaktree's cautious, highly selective approach to sectors exposed to AI disruption, focusing on businesses with durable characteristics such as proprietary data, strong customer integration, high switching costs, regulatory moats, and sufficient capital to invest in new technology. For healthcare, she draws a sharp distinction between provider IT and payer IT, with the former expected to be more insulated from AI risk and the latter being more exposed given the resources and incentive large national payers have to insource.

Olivia discusses how policy changes including the One Big Beautiful Bill's impact on Medicaid reimbursement, potential ACA subsidy expiration, and a growing focus on fraud, waste, and abuse are driving dispersion across subsectors, with med devices and pharma looking relatively more attractive and Medicaid-exposed services remaining challenged. She also touches upon the growing focus on private credit and how the historical notion that private credit doesn't trade is being tested, with trading activity so far remaining limited and orderly but potentially accelerating if redemption pressures increase. She highlights that the next two to three years should represent a significant opportunity for sector-specialist, bottom-up investors in opportunistic credit like Oaktree.