Missteps, Missing Plans and Three Weeks to Go (Episode 50)

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines reaches its 50th episode — just over a year in, and with an audience that has grown beyond either man expected. They mark the occasion the way they mark everything: with a tribute, a historical detour, and absolutely no let-up on the campaign. Three weeks out from election day, there’s too much to get through.

Thanks to Frank Risk Management, the 100% Kiwi owned Insurance Brokerage.

In this episode:

* Gang pads, political missteps and the skeleton in everyone’s closet — The Greens and Te Pāti Māori’s visit to a Mongrel Mob pad — photographed against gang patches — draws Phil’s bluntest assessment of the campaign: stupid, naive, and politically self-destructive in precisely the seats the Greens need to hold. But Phil won’t leave the history untouched. Muldoon funded millions into gang work schemes. Chris’s concern is different but equally sharp: in a campaign where repetition and message discipline are everything, going off-script to cozy up to organised crime in the final weeks is an act of self-indulgence that could cost the Greens two or three points — and potentially their Wellington North seat.

* Peters unilateral at the UN, the right to silence and a missing fiscal plan — New Zealand voted against a World Health Organization resolution on pandemic preparedness — alongside the United States, Israel and one other country, against 154 nations. Phil is unambiguous: this was Peters playing to his anti-vax base using New Zealand’s international reputation as a chip. Chris reports that National ministers wanted to vote for the resolution. Both ask the same question: did it go to cabinet? If so, Luxon owns it. If not, the coalition is more out of control than anyone has acknowledged.

* Māori seats, the TOP threshold and the defining moment that hasn’t happened yet — Phil gives his most detailed read of the Māori electorates: Labour likely to pick up three seats, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti safe with Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, Te Tai Tonga a genuine contest, Te Tai Tokerau close but leaning Labour’s way. Chris keeps a close eye on Te Tai Hauauru — formerly Tariana’s stronghold, now genuinely split — and notes Willie Jackson’s bold declaration at Adrian Rurawhe’s tangihanga that it was now Labour’s marae earned him a look that suggested otherwise. Then there’s the defining moment question: could the gang visit be this campaign’s Metiria Turei? Could there be a Peter Dunne common-sense moment that shifts 15% of undecideds overnight? Both men think the race is not yet settled, and Gerald Ford’s Poland moment — and Biden’s 2024 implosion — are offered as reminders of how fast things can move.

Along the way: the 50th episode milestone and why people keep stopping Chris at airports to say they appreciate civilised disagreement; Marilyn Waring ringing to correct the OIA history and give proper credit to Mike Minogue; a tribute to Geoff Thompson, former member for Horowhenua, who passed away this week.

Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too.

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