LME Week 2026 Preview: Five Key Themes Shaping the Copper Market

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Hello and welcome to Copper Weekly, a benchmark podcast.
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I'm Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and with me we have Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst and Market Reporter, where each week we'll unpack what really moved the copper market and what to watch in the coming days ahead.
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Along the way, we'll be joined by a number of guest speakers.
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So kick back, relax, and enjoy this quick download on Everything Copper.
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Hello and welcome back to Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
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To what today is a special pre-LME week edition.
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As normal, we have Albert Mackenzie joining us in.
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We're going to take a little bit longer today to dive into and discuss some of the major pressing topics, I suppose, that uh we're certainly going to be talking about during our many, many LME week uh meetings, and no doubt hopefully many of our listeners are are interested in hearing our opinions.
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Um Albert, how are you doing?
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I'm doing well, thank you very much.
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And um on advice of of one of our lovely colleagues, Alex, I've been told we should do more small talk.
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So I thought I should say about to head to uh to Paris.
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So I'm sort of very excited um for some for some work meetings and a and a little bit of exploring smart galleries.
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So um there's some small talk if Alex you are you are listening.
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That's yeah, it sounds like a a good a good Friday.
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Um days ahead, right?
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So yeah.
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Um and maybe I don't know, hopefully get a bit of peace and quiet before what is looking and shaping up to be a very busy LME week, right?
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Yes, I'm straight into meetings on Sunday, um, which is my choice, so I can't complain.
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Um but yeah, LME week is always a busy, busy week.
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I think for us as as analysts, um especially towards the end of the week, I try and get meetings in on Monday and Tuesday, and I get told I'd like you at the end of the week when you have all the gossip.
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Um so yeah, it's looking like certainly Wednesday and Thursday and Friday are are pretty chock full of meetings, and and there's a lot of people who who will be around to chat to.
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And I and I think there's something very different about meeting someone in person for a really long time.
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You really get into some some some topics.
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Whereas, you know, if you have a 10-minute, 15-minute catch-up over the phone or a WhatsApp back and forth about like a specific question, you know, you don't always get the the minutiae.
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And some of these meetings at LME Week, you're gonna get a lot out.
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And also, I mean, there'll be a lot of people drinking and a lot of people gossiping uh on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday evening.
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So, you know, stuff does sort of come out.
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That is also your alternative job title, chief gossiper, right?
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So uh that that works well.
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Um, like I said, it's gonna be a busy, a busy week.
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I mean, we effectively kicked off yesterday, right?
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We had a whole series of of pre-LME week meetings um running around London.
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Um, we've got more coming on Friday, and there certainly seems to be some major themes that are coming out in these discussions that we're tracking, obviously, and I think are probably going to make the bulk of uh LME Week discussions.
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Um, Albert, do you want to introduce just at a high level what each of the sort of five things that you're keeping an eye on, uh what they each are, and then we can maybe start going through them uh one by one and diving a bit deeper.
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Yes, yeah, yeah.
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I uh firstly reducing it to five things was in itself a challenge.
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The market's very interesting at the moment, and um, lots of these factors are kind of related to each other.
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Um but the things that, you know, even discussions so far have seemed to focus on.
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Um TCs, copper concentrate TCs are at record lows.
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We're approaching, you know, it's actually Cesco Asia, you know, Asia Copper Week that tends to be when those discussions really start in earnest.
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Um, but next year next week we'll start to hear some of those conversations take place um about annual benchmark TCs and with TCs as low as they are, those are going to be interesting.
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Um, we've also heard cathode premiums have come out and and will continue to come out across the the coming weeks.
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Um so Arubis's number came out yesterday.
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Um, you know, how the market responds to that and what the cathode market looks like yes next year in in a physical sense, you know.
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I think often when we talk about copper prices and stuff, uh we're talking about paper trading and that kind of thing.
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But here we're talking about and and LME Week really is a physical market participant meeting.
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So the the the sort of that that side of the market, like conks, will be a big topic.
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Um US tariff uncertainty, and and that's just it's a bit boring at this point because it's been a topic in every meeting I've done since I've joined Benchmark.
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Um, probably.
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So, you know, um that will continue to be a topic of discussion because we still have had no resolution on that.
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Um I think people are going to keep talking about fears of the supply gap, fears related to um long-term, like really long-term deficit expectations, and whether the the mine supply can can keep up with that.
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And all of those factors kind of then feed into one last thing, which is that the prices are still really high.
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Um it's the thing that you can't ignore.
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It's it's there in the corner of the room hanging over every meeting.
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And um I like to remind people every time I talk to them that the price being 14,000 is not normal.
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Um, it's easy to forget when you're covering these markets that the price hasn't always been where it is.
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You kind of get used to things, but you know, it's worth going into that.
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And I think people will be digging into why the price is so high and whether that's sustainable.
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Completely agree.
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Um good.
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Let's step through them one by one.
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Let's come all the way back to TCs.
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We literally spent a whole hour talking about it in in one of our meetings yesterday, uh, thinking about you know current spot levels, uh, what the hell is going on with the benchmark, um, where that may settle, is it going to disappear?
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So you just want to pack sort of your your latest thoughts coming into DellMe.
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So where where are we currently with spot?
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Um, how do we get there?
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Um, how low can can that go?
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And and I suppose expectations for um for moving forwards as well.
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Yeah, so currently uh spot TCs for for smelter buying are you know, my steel's number, which is the the number we use, is uh about minus 240.
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That is very, very low, and it's falling every couple of weeks at the moment.
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It's not you know, it's it's not staying still very often.
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What's even more interesting than that is a lot of deals are being done against other PRAs indexes, um SMM and and uh in China and the number of of Western PRAs as well.
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Um so we're actually seeing spot deals done lower than the index because they're being done at index minus.
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So you're seeing sort of index minus 20 or something.
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So if the spot level is minus 250, some of the transactions are actually happening well below that.
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So we have really aggressive TCRCs, which is a result of a massive oversupply of smelter capacity, largely brought on in China.
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Um, but it also important is Indonesia has over the last few years, you know, everyone's known it's gonna happen, um, is forcing producers there, I don't know if forcing is the right word, um, is compelling producers there to um smelt material locally.
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So Grasberg, the world's second biggest mine, can no longer export conch.
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So too can Batu Hijao can't can't export conch.
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And and those laws have been in place for a while, but it's this year that we've really seen those exports to China hit, you know, for whole quarters, zero tons.
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Um, and also with Dani, you know, in India we've seen a ramp up of smelter capacity there.
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Um so we have this huge increase of smelter capacity, which has not been met with an increase in concentrate supply.
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Um, I would argue potentially if it had, we'd have a comically oversupplied copper market at the moment.
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If all the smelters in the world, um, you know, especially considering like Pasar and and Tumeb have just stopped producing, we'd have far more copper than anyone could possibly consume.
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But you know, that's a slightly other other topic.
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But the slow relationship of that concentrate growth to the smelter growth is has meant that the TCs are low and the market is tight.
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That explains why they were falling.
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The other thing is that smelters have managed to remain pretty economical despite TCs, which were historically a source of revenue, becoming a cost.
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Um, so acid prices, gold prices, copper prices, you know, any of the uh Western companies that are that are buying copper uh that are CME registered will be getting really big premiums.
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You know, Japanese smelters have really good premiums in India because of export tariffs that they're precluded from.
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You know, there's a load of things that mean that these smelters are actually making money and can keep pulling this TC down.
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It's worth noting that the vast, vast majority of spot sales are to China.
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Um we've heard that Adania are buying some spot units.
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Um, you know, they're a new smelter.
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That it it's you know that makes sense when when a new smelter comes into the market that they they have to participate in the spot market.
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That's you know, even in China internally, the one the the smelters that have newer capacity are reliant more on the spot market than than the ones who've had you know operations for longer.
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Um but basically the TCs are really low.
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Um and it seems like they're a free fall, effectively.
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Yeah, yeah.
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And and I think you know, potentially the spot-linked spot sales, you know, might have a have a role in that if people are buying it, index minus 20.
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Yeah.
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And the index goes down 10, then you're going, you know, it's gone down 30 in in in a way.
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It's kind of and it can weigh itself down.
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And and and also, you know, like lots of these tons are marginal tons.
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You know, lots of these smelters still have contracts at zero for the year, so you know, they're not buying everything at minus two hundred and forty.
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Yeah, and that's important to to remember, right?
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When you when you think of it as an aggregate, it's not all, you know, um coming in at that level.
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But it does raise a question, and I'm always interested in that marginal turn and you know a fresh package coming in on a spot basis at minus, you know, like I said, 240.
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Surely the Chinese smelters aren't making money that level.
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I mean, where's where do you see the break-even point being?
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I think you know, from our conversations, we think it's and and from our own internal calculations, we think it's lower than minus 150, so which is still really aggressive.
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Um most people have started to say that those marginal tons, the minus 200s plus, surely they're not actually making money.
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There is an argument to be made that holistically they are making money and those additional units make sense.
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Whether that's because they've sold forward acid or sold forward cathode, or you know, whether that is the implications for the rest of you know their utilization rates being high, or whether they'd have to um lose money on other contracts on the sell side and things like that.
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But it seems, you know, certainly if a if a smelter I would I would posit that if a smelter had only minus 200 on their books, you know, no no um benchmark units and was buying everything at minus 200, they probably wouldn't be making money.
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And there's only so long that that can be sustained for, right?
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Depending on state intervention.
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We're now in the situation where that's what's happening in China, the the really low TCs.
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As we move to next year, the smelters will be trying to get units, the miners will be trying to sell units, and the miners will go into those conversations and say, hey guys, you know, TCs are minus 240.
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Um we need to agree a level.
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And whether they can agree a level is one question.
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Uh, we've heard that some Chinese smelters are willing to accept minus uh 80s for an annual level, and apparently the retort from the sell side miners was you know, it needs to be triple digits just based on where spot is at the moment.
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Um if there was an agreement around those numbers, would European smelters be happy with that?
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Would Japanese smelters be happy with that, and and Indian and Korean and smelters from around the world be able to satisfy themselves with those levels.
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Both financially, um, and I think financially, you know, premiums are going to be high, acid prices are gonna be high, and bearing in mind some of those smelters outside China won't be spot exposed on acids, so should be getting a lot more value for their acid next year because they'll be locking in higher prices next year.
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So they you know they might see the profitability in it, but it's whether they, you know, semantically want to agree negative TCs.
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Does that break a uh a trend for them?
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Does that then, you know, how do they explain that to their bosses and all those sorts of things?
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And then inversely, if they don't buy units, they just have to shut.
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So you're kind of caught between a rock and a hard place.
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And and I would remind everyone that when TC, the TCRC benchmark was 22.5 and 2.25 and 25 point uh and 25, but it was split between Europe and and and China and and Japan, and and there was two benchmarks basically.
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And last year, when it was zero, the discussions were very prolonged and very challenging.
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Now, if the TCs are at minus 85 or minus 100, those discussions could be challenging, and we might see a split benchmark, a broken benchmark system, bilateral negotiations, uh PRA-linked spot indexes, you know, all sorts of things.
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And I don't think anyone knows exactly what will happen uh next year in these discussions.
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I think they're gonna be very challenging, and and we'll get a taste of that next week.
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Yeah, I think we're gonna hopefully learn a lot on that, but um it it does point towards a potentially broken system, right?
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But I equally I don't know what the the solution or or answer is, and I know we spent a lot of time talking about this this yesterday.
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Um I'm not sure if there's any final thoughts from you in terms of you know, looking ahead, are some long-term annual agreements going to be put in place, what level, how many different side terms are there gonna be?
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Um and is it then you know feasible to create a standard um reference point, I suppose?
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Yeah, I think those side terms will be that will be an interesting element because I used to price um I used to make a PRA's uh TCRC index.
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And it's just a lots of it, you know, there's there's standard terms in there, but you're publishing a TC, you know, a number that says this is the TCRC and it's it's basic standard standard payability levels.
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And that's the same with the benchmark in a way.
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It's it's this headline number.
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And you hear lots of details, you hear lots of things in the market that go, oh, this is where the benchmark is.
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Oh, I heard this minus old this at this.
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Um it's very hard to get into the granularity much beyond the headline.
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You know, good reporters do and and and and good PRAs will do that, but it's hard.
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And, you know, we could hear, we could hear that, you know, some Japanese smelters or some European smelters agree, you know, annual levels at zero next in the next couple of months.
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But it's what else is coming from that?
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You know, we've heard contracts that involve acid buybacks.
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We've heard contracts between companies that own stakes in other companies, we've heard contracts that involve cathode buybacks.
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You know, so it's then what does that headline number mean?
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And is that broadly replicatable in the rest of the market?
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And I think there will be a lot of ground given on lots of stuff.
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Though, you know, there might be some apprehension about giving too much ground if I was a smelter and you go, sure, we'll we'll change our gold payable.
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Some of those changes, you know, and gold payables certainly in China have changed aggressively.
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You know, we've heard some some TCRCs where you know historically the minimum deductible for gold is one gram, so you don't pay for the first gram of gold essentially.
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We've heard some where there's no minimum deductible anymore, where people are getting all the gold for free, and that's a really big change.
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So um it's those side terms that will be really hard to track, but also kind of crucial.
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Um, so it might, you know, we might never really get perfect clarity on the situation.
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All right, very good.
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Um we'll keep tabs on that next week.
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Let's jump to cafe premiums.
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Obviously, the the Arubus number came out yesterday.
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Um you're pretty quick to find that out.
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I mean, were you surprised by that that number?
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And and I I yeah, I suppose what's your initial take on that in in the markets markets view?
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Um well, I I don't know if they'll they'll listen to it, but they'll know they'll listen to this podcast, but they'll know I'm referring to them.
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I went for dinner with someone uh while visiting Europe the other week, and he told me that he thought the Arub's premium would be mar uh would be 250 uh 350 US dollars.
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And it came out at 347.
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So he was he was pretty correct.
00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:19.519
And actually a lot of people who I spoke to thought around that level.
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Firstly, you know, European premiums don't tend to go down year on year.
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Um they've they've locked in higher levels, so they kind of want to keep them.
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Secondly, I mean a short answer is no, I'm not not surprised.
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I mean, maybe it I could have I wouldn't have even been surprised if it's gone a little bit higher.
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Uh if it'd been 370 or so, I I I wouldn't have been crazy surprised.
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European LME stocks are very low.
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Um there is the potential for the arbitrage trade to reawaken.
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Um, some traders will be hungry for units.
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Um, I would say also importantly, last year's discussions, from my understanding, um, so this is you know, one of the big things that will happen at LME is Arubis, Cadelco, and Beledon and uh Atlantic Copper and all the big European producers will go to their customers and and and talk contracts and KGHM as well and um Monttenverk Bricksleg will go to their European customers and say, look, how much tonnage do you want?
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These are the premiums that we we've heard, and this is the sort of level we'd we'd like to agree with you.
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Often those conversations, certainly when premiums increase like they did last year, are very challenging.
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You go and say, premiums are really high, would you like some copper?
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And people kind of go, Oh, that's a bit high.
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But actually, last year, despite a large increase in premiums, the broad feedback I got from everyone was that people wanted to secure units.
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That the fear, you know, if you're a if you're procuring for a semi-producer, you have two aims.
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It's very simplified.
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The first aim is to make sure you have material and so that your factory doesn't shut down.
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And then the second aim is to get a good price.
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And the biggest thing hanging over the market at the moment is fears of acute tightness.
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You know, you can see it in the backwardation on the LME, you can see it in in lots of things that we look at every day, this huge flow of material to the US, which I think we'll come come on to later.
00:19:13.519 --> 00:19:16.319
Um, but that is the main worry.
00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:33.440
And I I I think the the ease with which those contracts were agreed last year on the cathode side in Europe will mean that, you know, that's there they'll be aware that that it were it will be accepted to a degree.
00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:37.279
The other thing is it's kind of fair enough from Arubis.
00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:43.920
They they told Bloomberg in an article that you know they mentioned that those those flows of material to the US, they mentioned the low stocks.
00:19:44.079 --> 00:19:56.880
That the the cathode premiums are you know the the they're a an exhibition of of regional tightnesses and and the sort of other expenses that sit atop the LME price.
00:19:56.960 --> 00:20:04.319
And you know, the LME copper price has gone up loads, so much in the last year, 50% since their last copper offer.
00:20:04.720 --> 00:20:11.599
That's 50% more material that a smelting company has to finance and hold and all of those costs that are associated with it.
00:20:11.759 --> 00:20:14.640
In the same time, the TCs have fallen significantly.
00:20:14.799 --> 00:20:17.200
So maybe Arubis will have an eye on that.
00:20:17.440 --> 00:20:23.200
Um, there's a lot of factors influencing it, but they kind of all pointed towards an increase.
00:20:23.519 --> 00:20:28.240
Um so it doesn't, you know, entirely surprise me.
00:20:28.480 --> 00:20:38.400
Um it will be interesting to see, and it's worth noting actually that the spot levels were broadly lower than the annual level this year for 2026.
00:20:38.559 --> 00:20:49.680
Lots of people agreed 315 and above and around the area for units in in Europe, and actually the premiums, the regional premiums week to week were lower than that across most of the year.
00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:58.960
Now, some participants could look at that and go, oh, well, we agreed these really high levels and everything was fine and everything was lower, we'd have been better to just buy on spot.
00:20:59.359 --> 00:21:04.880
But actually, it's also a result of the fact that people were very well prepared.
00:21:05.039 --> 00:21:16.640
People were scared about tightness, made sure that they could guarantee their units, and then individual companies' demand wasn't particularly high for spot because they were so well covered on the long term.
00:21:16.720 --> 00:21:22.160
And actually, it's it's to me it indicates successful strategy from them last year to go long.
00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:25.440
Um, because a huge amount of material flowed to the US.
00:21:25.599 --> 00:21:40.559
And I think, you know, there were points last year where the arbitrage was hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the front month and and even more thousands on the on the forward months, that um, you know, indicates that if the market had got tight, it could have got tight really quickly.
00:21:40.799 --> 00:21:44.799
Um, so premiums are high, I think they'll be accepted.
00:21:44.960 --> 00:21:57.680
What will be interesting is to see what Cadelco offers and also what's offered to participants in in East Asia because Chinese participants are less accepting of really high premiums.
00:21:57.759 --> 00:21:59.759
They were very unaccepting of the high premiums last.
00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:00.880
Year.
00:22:01.599 --> 00:22:04.000
And you can see that in in the import data.
00:22:04.240 --> 00:22:09.200
So much less Chilean cathode went to China last year, this year than previous years.
00:22:10.240 --> 00:22:20.160
Obviously they're making more copper as well, and DRC is making a lot of copper and Russia's exporting a lot to China, but maybe it will disincentivise those participants.
00:22:34.640 --> 00:22:37.440
How do you justify that to the people you're selling to?
00:22:37.759 --> 00:22:40.960
And B, do you open up arbitrage opportunities?
00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:50.960
You know, if you're selling something at$400 a ton in China, uh in Europe and$90 a ton in China, someone's just going to trade that up and it doesn't work.
00:22:51.200 --> 00:22:55.119
So it will be interesting to see where the Asian premiums go.
00:22:55.680 --> 00:23:04.480
Um they might not increase quite as much because of a lack of acceptance of it, but you know, who it's it's to be seen, and I honestly don't know.
00:23:04.640 --> 00:23:12.480
Um, but I would say if they were really high 300s, they're less likely to be broadly accepted in in that region.
00:23:13.759 --> 00:23:15.359
Okay, great stuff, Albert.
00:23:15.440 --> 00:23:19.519
And obviously, feeding into this, you you mentioned it, alluded to it.
00:23:19.599 --> 00:23:25.440
Um obviously why premiums are so high right now is that that feeling of regional tightness outside of the US.
00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:28.559
And that's your your number three bullet point here, right?
00:23:28.640 --> 00:23:35.119
And certainly uh another big talking point, albeit people are very sick about talking of it, but uh the the tariff uncertainty.
00:23:35.359 --> 00:23:46.160
I mean, how much obviously it's it's having a uh a massive impact on on you know flows around the world, but uh is how does this move how do we move forward from here?
00:23:46.240 --> 00:23:47.359
How does this unfold?
00:23:47.759 --> 00:23:50.480
Um, what is your base case assumption?
00:23:50.640 --> 00:23:58.240
And uh we've been looking at obviously the trade data, it's it's been huge, you know, in terms of import volumes coming in every single month into the US.
00:23:58.319 --> 00:24:02.240
Do you expect that to slow down a little as we move into 2027?
00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:11.680
I know there's a rumbling or a general gut feeling from many that January could be uh a time for for tariffs to come in if they were to come in.
00:24:11.759 --> 00:24:13.839
So are we expecting to see a bit of a slowdown?
00:24:13.920 --> 00:24:17.359
Um, because we're getting pretty close to that date now, effectively.
00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:19.920
There's a lot of questions there for you, sorry.
00:24:20.079 --> 00:24:21.519
Yeah, there's there's a yeah, there is.
00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:22.160
No, no.
00:24:22.240 --> 00:24:23.839
Um, and they're all good ones.
00:24:24.000 --> 00:24:26.640
Um I'll start with do we expect a slowdown?
00:24:26.720 --> 00:24:30.400
Because I think I have been thinking about that a lot recently.
00:24:30.559 --> 00:24:46.559
Um last year, one of the reasons why, or 2026, one of the reasons why imports into the US remained so consistently high, even when the arbitrage wasn't necessarily there, was because a lot of participants uh positioned forward.
00:24:46.880 --> 00:24:58.160
In LME week last year and in Cisco week last year, a lot of big trading companies went to smelters that were CME registered and basically bought up lots of their units to ship to the US.
00:24:58.480 --> 00:25:02.160
Now, is a tariff coming on January 1st?
00:25:02.319 --> 00:25:03.200
I don't know.
00:25:03.920 --> 00:25:11.359
Is it more likely potentially that a tariff comes in in 2027 than would have been perceived as the case in 2026?
00:25:11.599 --> 00:25:13.920
And to that, I would say yes.
00:25:14.079 --> 00:25:20.960
Yes, I think it is more likely that a tariff comes in next year than I would have thought it was uh this time last year, looking at 26.
00:25:21.359 --> 00:25:30.160
And therefore, if you're a trader, do you want to position forward as aggressively as you did last year and create those contracts and go out?
00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:42.880
You know, we had some contracts in four, five, six hundred dollars premiums being bought by traders to ship that material to the US, who would then position on the forward curve and lock in really good prices and ship to the US across the year?
00:25:43.119 --> 00:25:58.640
Now, what we will still see is any time the arbitrage blows up, big flows of material to the US, and we will still see some traders position forward because the the forward curves on these two exchanges are still really broad.
00:25:58.720 --> 00:26:01.359
So there's still reason to do that trade.
00:26:02.079 --> 00:26:04.480
Is there a chance it diminishes slightly?
00:26:04.799 --> 00:26:05.759
Potentially.
00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:10.240
Does it diminish to the point that stocks in the US actually start getting drawn down?
00:26:10.480 --> 00:26:11.359
Probably not.
00:26:11.599 --> 00:26:17.839
The chances are they'll continue to grow, which is, you know, the US will continue to import more copper than it needs.
00:26:17.920 --> 00:26:19.279
You know, the last couple of years.
00:26:19.680 --> 00:26:24.559
By the end of this year, we're forecasting well, I try trying to remember what it was actually.
00:26:24.640 --> 00:26:29.519
It's uh over 800,000 tons for this year and even more for last year.
00:26:29.680 --> 00:26:36.720
It's something like 1.7 million, 1.8 million tonnes of stock buildup in the US since the Trump administration started.
00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:47.680
What's your take on, and we heard a comment the other day, that not necessarily this is sort of a fresh build of inventory that's economically locked in the US.
00:26:47.759 --> 00:26:51.839
It's rather a repositioning of inventory that already existed.
00:26:52.000 --> 00:26:54.480
Um any any thoughts on that?
00:26:55.279 --> 00:27:04.720
It's a very interesting point, and it's one that I have been debating for a while because it's something you can't really see.
00:27:05.039 --> 00:27:15.519
What we're talking about here is sort of there is visible inventory, LME, CME, Shiffy, even social inventories in China, and a few other things that you can kind of look at and you know.
00:27:15.599 --> 00:27:18.000
And trade data is very visible as well.
00:27:18.240 --> 00:27:28.400
Um but wire makers will have a load of cathode and a load of wire rod, you know, at the other side.
00:27:28.559 --> 00:27:35.279
Smelters will have a load of conch, a load of scrap, and a load of cathode, and maybe billet, and maybe a number of other things.
00:27:35.359 --> 00:27:41.359
And and you see that if you ever go to a smelter, if you ever go to a somebody's producer, there's there's material everywhere in those places.
00:27:41.680 --> 00:28:05.759
Now, with prices at 14,000 and with borrowing costs really high, and and with a really good trade available to send the material to the US, is there an argument to be made that a number of participants have reduced their stocks and shipped, and that stuff has you know flowed through the system and by proxy the market looks looser than it really is?
00:28:06.400 --> 00:28:08.799
I think that's actually a really interesting case.
00:28:08.960 --> 00:28:12.160
And I think I would make the case that that's true for conch as well.
00:28:12.319 --> 00:28:17.759
Maybe less conch is being blended because the price is so high at the moment and you want to just get it to the other side and get it processed.
00:28:17.920 --> 00:28:27.759
Maybe there's less conch in warehouses, maybe there's less blister and less anode, and and if you squeeze it all through the system, it might make the market appear looser than it actually is.
00:28:27.920 --> 00:28:28.880
I think that's a good case.
00:28:29.039 --> 00:28:30.799
I think there's a good argument for that.
00:28:31.039 --> 00:28:33.039
Do I think it's the whole picture?
00:28:33.680 --> 00:28:34.960
I would say no.
00:28:35.279 --> 00:28:38.400
I think the other thing to bear in mind is, you know, scrap.
00:28:38.880 --> 00:28:51.119
Um, you know, Chinese smelters have done very well, whether that's by using scrap or using other um little knick-knacks, you know, whatever they can put through the front door to keep keep their smelter producing, they've done well.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:53.200
And the DRC does does well every year.
00:28:53.279 --> 00:28:57.920
You know, it's its production grows, and that's a lot of SXEW, so it comes out as refined copper.
00:28:58.000 --> 00:29:10.799
You know, it's not it's not concentrate, so although the concentrate market looks really tight, there is a region in the world that is making uh copper cathode, and and and and in theory the market shouldn't be as tight as the concentrate balance makes it look.
00:29:11.119 --> 00:29:14.720
Um I think there's a chance it's a number of factors.
00:29:16.640 --> 00:29:20.079
But do I think there's an does it matter?
00:29:20.240 --> 00:29:40.079
It matters because those those volumes in the US, regardless where it's come from, and thinking about the risk to prices moving forwards and a redirection of flows, or not necessarily redirection of flows, but more available more material being available elsewhere as the US potentially begins to draw down that stock.
00:29:40.160 --> 00:29:41.759
Does it matter where it came from?
00:29:42.559 --> 00:29:49.279
It matters if the situation doesn't resolve itself, because it's a lever that can only be pulled once.
00:29:49.519 --> 00:29:51.839
You can only de stock once.
00:29:52.079 --> 00:29:56.559
If you well, you can only de stock once without restocking in the cycle, yeah, yeah.
00:29:56.799 --> 00:29:57.200
Yeah.
00:29:57.440 --> 00:30:01.200
So so if it is say we're completely wrong.
00:30:01.359 --> 00:30:13.680
Say say everything I've just said is kind of wrong, and the entire apparent the entire appearance of surplus in the market has happened because of stock drawdowns throughout the supply chain.
00:30:14.000 --> 00:30:17.759
If that is the case, the market is hella tight.
00:30:17.920 --> 00:30:23.599
You know, the market is in a in a deficit already, and we just can't see it yet.
00:30:24.319 --> 00:30:32.640
It seems unlikely to me, would be, would be my case that that that is true, but that's why it matters, because it's because next year you can't you can't go down.
00:30:32.720 --> 00:30:51.200
You know, if you're a wire producer, maybe you can go from 14 days stock to to to 12 or to 10, but you're not going to go down to two days stock because then if a couple of trucks get delayed, or if the smelter phones you up and says, look, we've had a we've had an issue at our tank house, we're gonna delay our delivery by three weeks, then you're screwed.
00:30:51.279 --> 00:30:54.400
You you need, especially with LME warehouse stocks where they are.
00:30:54.559 --> 00:31:00.400
So you you do have to have some working inventory, so you can't just keep drawing down and down and down.
00:31:00.799 --> 00:31:11.359
Um it also matters because you know, if there was an accident at a at a certain facility in Europe, say, you know, we've spoken to a lot of European participants and they said there's been stock drawdowns.
00:31:11.680 --> 00:31:18.880
If there was a disruption at a smelter in Europe, that could create acute tightness quite quickly, in if that is true.
00:31:19.119 --> 00:31:27.759
Um in terms of how the market would respond if a tariff did or didn't come in, it would probably make the market increase incredibly loose really quickly.
00:31:27.920 --> 00:31:33.839
Um, you'd probably see prices fall, and you'd see that invisible stock build back up again.
00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:37.119
But either way, that would likely pressure prices anyway.
00:31:37.200 --> 00:31:39.440
So in in some ways it doesn't really matter.
00:31:39.680 --> 00:31:45.519
Um what happens next, irrespective of of any of that, is really hard to tell.
00:31:45.759 --> 00:31:49.839
The Trump administration has given no clarity on anything.
00:31:50.079 --> 00:31:54.720
Um, any uh updates or anything over the the midterms?
00:31:54.799 --> 00:31:55.920
Is that something that may be a problem?
00:31:56.000 --> 00:31:56.960
I think it would be law.
00:31:57.200 --> 00:31:58.720
Yeah, I think it would be post-midterm.
00:31:58.880 --> 00:31:59.119
Okay.
00:31:59.359 --> 00:32:06.240
Um, you know, the the Trump administration is expected to do poorly in the midterms.
00:32:07.039 --> 00:32:12.720
Announcing a big tariff on something that goes into everything that people use, you know, every fridge, every phone.
00:32:12.799 --> 00:32:30.400
You know, it's it's a small, it's a small uh part of a phone and a small part of a laptop, but it doesn't, it's not necessarily a narratively good look or to to sort of go, hey, you know, you know you're worried about inflation and how high oil prices are, and especially if some voters are blaming the war in Iran for oil prices being high.
00:32:30.640 --> 00:32:33.119
Would you like another little bit of inflation on top of that?
00:32:33.200 --> 00:32:35.599
And and I think it's something that they wouldn't do.
00:32:35.839 --> 00:32:38.400
Is it something that will happen after midterms?
00:32:38.559 --> 00:32:43.119
And is it something that will happen after midterms irrespective of how the Democrats do in the midterms?
00:32:43.279 --> 00:32:54.319
Yes, because a 232 investigation is an executive branch piece of uh authority and power, so they can do it irrespective of what's going on in the Senate and the House.
00:32:54.640 --> 00:32:58.799
So um, you know, that would be I I think we could hear in January.
00:32:58.880 --> 00:33:09.200
And the longer the situation goes on for the the A, the tighter the market gets, but also, you know, at some point I'd expect some clarity would would would be my view.
00:33:09.359 --> 00:33:11.519
Um I don't know what that clarity will be.
00:33:11.599 --> 00:33:14.400
Uh, but the clarity would probably be bullish for prices.
00:33:14.720 --> 00:33:15.119
Agreed.
00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:24.640
And it'd be good over LME week and our many meetings to collect uh a bit of a consensus opinion, and uh we can come back uh in future weeks and um yeah give some updates on on our side.
00:33:24.880 --> 00:33:26.240
Okay, let's move on and talk.
00:33:26.400 --> 00:33:28.000
You mentioned obviously fears of supply gap.
00:33:28.079 --> 00:33:34.000
We we've done a uh a couple of uh podcasts on this, and we had a good one with Scott Crooks um talking about it.
00:33:34.160 --> 00:33:39.759
Um is there anything particular you're thinking about when you we mentioned fear of supply gap?
00:33:39.839 --> 00:33:48.559
Obviously, I know there's a lot of rhetoric right now about uh poor output from Chile, for example, but um you know that that does seem to be a little bit near-term focused.
00:33:48.720 --> 00:33:57.839
Um I know we are, you know, benchmark is certainly uh forecasting a deficit, of course, but you know, it's important we understand what that truly means.
00:33:57.920 --> 00:34:02.559
But is there anything else that you're looking at when it comes to um this point on fears of a supply gap?
00:34:04.240 --> 00:34:08.800
Yeah, I mean it's to me it's always been there.
00:34:08.960 --> 00:34:16.159
So I think that's the interesting thing about this topic is it hasn't changed since I started covering the market, but it seems to have come to more light recently.
00:34:16.400 --> 00:34:27.679
And when I mention it and when I'm thinking about it and looking at it, what I am thinking about is whether that is a reason why the copper prices are high.
00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:34.800
And then secondly, is that a reason why copper prices are high and that reason is justified?
00:34:35.039 --> 00:34:39.519
Or is that a reason why copper prices are high and I disagree with that logic?
00:34:39.920 --> 00:34:44.480
Um because certainly and I I certainly think it is part of the narrative of copper prices.
00:34:44.639 --> 00:35:04.000
You know, we've seen whether it's capital overflows from, you know, you know, gold and silver were very elevated last year, and we know that some we know from brokers and people who allocate funds for for for allocate capital for funds and pensions and things like this, we're looking at selling some commodities to buy copper.
00:35:04.159 --> 00:35:17.519
Um copper has to have a good narrative, therefore, and that those people saw the supply tightness that we were anticipating, and there's been a lot of media coverage of it as part of the reason why copper's a good bet.
00:35:17.599 --> 00:35:20.719
So I think certainly it's narratively important and it will therefore be discussed.
00:35:20.800 --> 00:35:32.639
And also, look, I'm gonna have you have me having meetings with miners, and they like to tell you that there won't be enough copper in 10 years' time, um, for for fairly obvious and clear reasons.
00:35:32.880 --> 00:35:38.480
Um what I find interesting is has anything changed?
00:35:39.039 --> 00:35:49.199
Everyone in the market has been saying for as long as the market has existed that there won't be enough of XYZ in 10 years, and normally markets kind of kind of handle that and deal with it.
00:35:49.519 --> 00:35:54.320
Are we genuinely at a point now where all grades are really low?
00:35:54.800 --> 00:36:13.519
Where a lot of the low-hanging fruit has been got, uh, where permitting for the assets that are there, you know, resolution in the US or or um twin metals in the US as well, you know, they're they're they're in a number of ways good assets, but but struggling to get off the ground for permitting reasons.
00:36:13.679 --> 00:36:26.000
I mean, you could say the same about Cobra Panama, although that that did open and maybe that will reopen at some point, um, is you know, it takes a while to get these mines off the ground, and therefore that feeds into the narrative.
00:36:26.079 --> 00:36:31.679
And then you add on to the other side AI demand and uh EV demand and all those sorts of things.
00:36:31.920 --> 00:36:37.440
My kind of view is some of those things, like certainly AI demand seems to be a little bit overblown.
00:36:37.519 --> 00:36:43.840
I've seen some forecasts that have it in the multiple millions by the end of the decade, which I don't really see.
00:36:44.320 --> 00:36:49.920
I find that we also ignore Chinese construction demand and things that are more bearish.
00:36:50.159 --> 00:36:56.320
And in the long run, we're seeing you know, really, really strong demand and ignoring the things that are negative to it.
00:36:56.559 --> 00:37:00.719
We also kind of avoid DRC productions doing really well.
00:37:01.039 --> 00:37:06.159
Chinese investment in overseas assets, lots of that in the DRC, is doing really well.
00:37:06.320 --> 00:37:16.079
Um, I think 70% of new supply in the last 10 years is Chinese owned, and 70% of new supply in the last 10 years is in the DRC.
00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:28.880
You know, that they kind of overlap quite quite well, but you know, there are Chinese assets elsewhere, but it's sort of do I see something that is as important as copper is to China's economy being in deficit?
00:37:29.039 --> 00:37:32.800
And my view would probably be no, because they prepare for those sorts of things.
00:37:32.880 --> 00:37:42.079
You know, even if Western mining companies are struggling with investment in places like Chile for obvious reasons, low-hanging fruit gone, low all grades, permitting, all of those things.
00:37:42.239 --> 00:37:44.239
But the world's a lot bigger than Chile.
00:37:44.320 --> 00:37:50.960
Um, and Chile is unbelievably important to the copper industry, has really great companies working there, really good assets.
00:37:51.360 --> 00:37:57.440
But it has a unique set of challenges and and also it is not the market.
00:37:57.679 --> 00:38:01.119
It is a part of, it's a very large, very important part of the market.
00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:06.079
But the DRC, you know, Zambia, and and copper scrap elsewhere as well.
00:38:06.159 --> 00:38:10.719
You know, you've got lots of things that that mean that that supply gap might not happen.
00:38:10.880 --> 00:38:17.679
I think the other thing is supply gaps always exist, but they're not necessarily forecasting deficits.
00:38:17.840 --> 00:38:21.760
They're just saying that this is what we think you you need to build as an industry.
00:38:21.920 --> 00:38:26.079
You know, if we've got, I think we've got six or something million tonnes by 2035.
00:38:26.400 --> 00:38:40.960
I don't think anyone on this team sees a six and a half million ton deficit by 2035, largely because if you were to add all the deficits up until that point, you'd need, you know, you'd need to have invented about 10 million tonnes of copper from thin air to satisfy that deficit.
00:38:41.039 --> 00:38:46.000
You know, it's not possible, it's not mathematically possible, it can only ever be theoretical.
00:38:46.239 --> 00:38:55.599
And once you engage with the concept that it has to be theoretical, you go, either demand will fall or mine supply will grow or scrap supply will grow.
00:38:55.840 --> 00:38:57.039
Those are the only three options.
00:38:57.519 --> 00:39:00.880
Yeah, and likely what we'll see is a combination of everything.
00:39:01.119 --> 00:39:03.440
Um so but it's an interesting topic.
00:39:03.599 --> 00:39:15.199
It's really interesting topic, and and we might see, you know, if if if we struggle to build that supply as that demand's growing, we might see some some quite big deficits some year, you know.
00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:22.719
But whether they're to the scale that justifies a$15,000 copper price is a is another question.
00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:24.000
Very good.
00:39:24.159 --> 00:39:30.239
And that links us very nicely onto your last point, your last focus piece, um, which is about copper prices.
00:39:30.400 --> 00:39:42.559
You obviously you ran through quite a few different things there and views in terms of why, you know, maybe the uh AI hype is propping prices up a little bit more than than um otherwise would be justified.
00:39:42.719 --> 00:39:51.199
Um we recently have had quite a few um significantly, you know, I think fair to say bullish forecasts come out from a number of banks.
00:39:51.360 --> 00:39:53.760
Um we see things a little different.
00:39:53.920 --> 00:40:07.039
If we were to look at an aggregate for 2026 pricing, I think in our latest report, based on our our view over the the remaining uh weeks and months of the year, we're looking at around 137 um thousands.
00:40:07.360 --> 00:40:15.440
And largely speaking, or as an indication, I think next year we're we're looking to come in below that, and that's where our forecast currently sits, right?
00:40:15.840 --> 00:40:25.519
Um that bucks a trend against a few different um maybe not research houses, but certainly for from the the bank's perspective, uh, or ones that we're tracking.
00:40:26.159 --> 00:40:27.440
What's your take on that?
00:40:27.840 --> 00:40:41.920
Why might there be such a bullish view um from some outfits in you know why are we confident well not confident, but why are we necessarily looking at um you know prices maybe coming off the boil uh somewhat next year?
00:40:47.199 --> 00:40:50.320
Um because I don't want to be too brash or bold.
00:40:50.639 --> 00:40:53.119
I I think look, we're a fundamental research house.
00:40:53.840 --> 00:41:03.360
We base our forecasts and our decision making on what we think the future will look like on supply and demand and and those two factors alone.
00:41:03.920 --> 00:41:15.119
At the moment the market's in oversupply and we see that being the case for a couple of years, like for 2026, we see it for 2027 as well.
00:41:16.960 --> 00:41:41.119
It's hard to justify a long-term price with fundamentals, with pure fundamentals, it is hard to justify a long-term price of say 20 grand for copper, 15 grand, bearing in mind, and I would say I would say this, and and and this is something I a hill I'll die on, is saying that copper prices will be 12 grand next year is bullish in my view.
00:41:41.280 --> 00:41:52.480
That's saying that copper prices are higher than they have ever been in human history up until October 2025 is kind of, you know, that's kind of you're saying, look, that they should be, they should remain pretty high.
00:41:52.639 --> 00:41:58.000
We're just sort of, you know, my views have been got a bit overexcited because largely because of the tariff trade.
00:41:58.800 --> 00:42:09.920
Um and that A, copper has potentially more swing capacity than people are willing to accept via scrap, via people processing things that they wouldn't otherwise process.
00:42:10.239 --> 00:42:18.400
I was talking to a smelter the other day who was talking about refloating slag that they wouldn't have otherwise used and and eking little bits out.
00:42:18.480 --> 00:42:20.239
And it's it's small stuff, you know.
00:42:20.400 --> 00:42:25.920
So I was in a meeting yesterday with someone and I pointed out some of the stuff to them, and they were like, that's small stuff compared to the big picture.
00:42:26.159 --> 00:42:30.880
But it's it's a large part of a deficit or a surplus, you know.
00:42:31.039 --> 00:42:37.760
And if the market remains in a surplus, it's hard to believe that, you know, what what's the outlook here?
00:42:37.840 --> 00:42:54.559
Look, say we're say we get to 2028 and there's three million tons of visible inventory because it's all just flowing to the US, which isn't unb, you know, bearing in mind our forecast for the end of 26 is that there will be 2 million tons of inventory with 1.7 million tons of inventory in the US.
00:42:54.719 --> 00:43:01.599
Then saying by the end of 27 there might be another, you know, bit more on top of that is is not crazy.
00:43:01.920 --> 00:43:06.000
At some point, the market has to return to rationality.
00:43:06.559 --> 00:43:10.400
And um it's kind of hard to judge these things.
00:43:10.480 --> 00:43:11.920
It's kind of hard to understand them.
00:43:12.159 --> 00:43:16.320
Historically, prices have been based more on short-term expectations.
00:43:16.719 --> 00:43:24.480
At the moment, we seem to be looking very far in the future, which is A, hard to predict, but but B, you know, there will be some swing capacity and all sorts of things.
00:43:24.719 --> 00:43:45.519
So, you know, I I would argue that if prices should be$15,000 a ton now or$20,000 a ton now, it is not that it is it's sort of saying that we are correctly pricing this commodity now, having been mispricing it, hugely undervaluing it for years before.
00:43:45.760 --> 00:43:46.559
You know, nothing.
00:43:46.719 --> 00:43:55.280
I I think that's kind of if you want to take two stagnant points, nothing has changed between now and uh last LME week.
00:43:55.599 --> 00:43:57.840
Like nothing that big.
00:43:58.079 --> 00:44:04.239
Grassberg, um Komuaka Coa, El Teniente had already had their issues.
00:44:04.480 --> 00:44:05.920
Those were known factors.
00:44:06.079 --> 00:44:08.800
And the price had not hit the levels it has currently hit.
00:44:08.960 --> 00:44:18.159
If anything, people adjusted their production rates up because people had underestimated how much the DRC would grow last year and underestimated how much the DRC would grow this year.
00:44:18.960 --> 00:44:23.679
So yeah, I mean it's it's I'm not trying to be contrarian.
00:44:23.840 --> 00:44:30.079
It's just it's you know, we you know we're at prices well above the cost of production.
00:44:30.480 --> 00:44:33.199
We're at prices that should incentivize new investment.
00:44:33.760 --> 00:44:40.400
Um and you know, uh do I see prices going down to eight grand again?
00:44:40.880 --> 00:44:43.119
You know, that that's sort of a different question.
00:44:43.280 --> 00:44:50.559
But you know, you you've got to we exist in a in a world in which there's 1.7 million tons sat in the US.
00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:54.639
If that tariff situation changes, that will really pressure prices.
00:44:54.719 --> 00:44:57.360
If it doesn't prolong, it will really pressure prices.
00:44:57.440 --> 00:44:58.719
I think that's where we are.
00:44:58.960 --> 00:45:03.679
Inversely, and having just been really potentially bearish, I can be really bullish if you want.
00:45:04.000 --> 00:45:17.599
Inversely, if the tariff situation continues and material keeps on flowing to the US, or if the US insinuates that the tariff is going to come in and people think there's a front loading opportunity and there's a rush to get material into the US, that could push prices even higher.
00:45:17.760 --> 00:45:22.559
We're you know, I was talking to a trader the other week and I he was sort of said, you know, what do you think?
00:45:22.719 --> 00:45:31.360
He was head head of research at this big trading house uh for copper, and he said, What do you think the price will do next year?
00:45:31.599 --> 00:45:37.599
And I said, It depending on the tariff, 18 on the top, nine on the bottom, I don't know.
00:45:37.840 --> 00:45:42.960
And I I was sort of a tongue-in-cheek comment, but he was like, Yep, I agree.
00:45:43.119 --> 00:45:51.840
I I think it could go really, really high or or fall off like a cliff because of that tariff thing being such a thing.
00:45:52.000 --> 00:45:54.400
That's such a large part of it.
00:45:54.559 --> 00:46:01.280
Um, and you know, look, I come back to Chinese demand, Chinese domestic demand is not good this year, and they're the biggest consumer.
00:46:01.440 --> 00:46:08.239
So there's other there are things, there are reasons to be bearish, uh and and AI demand has not picked up.
00:46:08.320 --> 00:46:26.880
You know, I mean, one of the most fascinating bits of research I did this year was AI data center demand in the last uh five years and in the coming five years is significantly smaller than all forecasts and all backward-looking data about Chinese construction demand.
00:46:27.039 --> 00:46:36.800
But if you read an article in a newspaper saying why copper price is so high, AI, AI, AI, but they don't say, hey, the biggest demand sector in the world, which is Chinese construction, is really strong.
00:46:37.599 --> 00:46:37.840
Yeah.
00:46:38.000 --> 00:46:38.480
Yeah.
00:46:38.719 --> 00:46:42.559
So um I sort of rambled there, but hopefully it's useful for those.
00:46:43.920 --> 00:46:44.559
Interesting.
00:46:44.960 --> 00:46:47.360
It was a it was a cheeky question from me, essentially.
00:46:47.519 --> 00:46:58.159
And I think it's probably fair to say that you know, trying to forecast prices right now in the copper space is you know at least as difficult as it's ever been, or perhaps even more difficult than it's it's ever been.
00:46:58.239 --> 00:47:07.760
And you know, we can put in a huge range, like you said, 9 and 18, and and we've seen some other ranges, and I think probably that that gap or or Delta is at the biggest it possibly could be.
00:47:07.920 --> 00:47:11.599
Um, it's not to say that any forecast is is necessarily wrong off the bat.
00:47:11.760 --> 00:47:15.599
We currently sit on, you know, I wouldn't even call it bearish, to be honest.
00:47:15.760 --> 00:47:19.679
Um, I I think you know, we're very still wedded to the fundamentals.
00:47:19.840 --> 00:47:24.000
Maybe we've got a uh an over not reliance on it, but preference for it.
00:47:24.079 --> 00:47:26.880
Um and we're we're expecting things to to revert to that.
00:47:27.039 --> 00:47:37.360
But there is a world where you know things may continue to not make sense, and we could see prices go um incredibly north and and you know hit the the dizzying heights of high teens or in the 20s.
00:47:37.440 --> 00:47:40.159
But um, yeah, currently we're we're not necessarily expecting that.
00:47:40.239 --> 00:47:50.159
But uh it's a fascinating time to be thinking about you know prices next year and beyond and all the different building blocks and and all the different risk factors that that all um feed into it as well.
00:47:50.239 --> 00:47:52.719
And I think obviously the US tariff being a major one.
00:47:52.800 --> 00:48:03.760
But you know, it'll be really interesting to you know that the next LME week edition we do to come back and look at this and think, wow, you know, either we were incredibly right or incredibly wrong, and it'll be interesting to see which of the it is.
00:48:03.840 --> 00:48:13.440
So um for now, Albert, any last quick closing comments um as you wrap up and and think about going to LME next week?
00:48:13.519 --> 00:48:16.159
Anything our our listeners should be grinded and ready for?
00:48:16.639 --> 00:48:21.199
Well, there's one thing that I'm I'm interested because this is very vague, very random.
00:48:21.440 --> 00:48:26.880
Um LME is currently in a fairly large backwardation because it is is at the moment.
00:48:27.039 --> 00:48:29.679
That's part of the nature of the tightness of the market.
00:48:30.000 --> 00:48:32.079
Um we're approaching the third Wednesday.
00:48:32.320 --> 00:48:37.440
Last time the third Wednesday happened when the LME was in a big backwardation, it it went kind of crazy.
00:48:37.679 --> 00:48:40.239
And it has, you know, keep an eye out.
00:48:40.400 --> 00:48:43.119
If you're looking at the prices, they can be volatile in LME week.
00:48:43.199 --> 00:48:57.840
There was, you know, I don't know how true it was, but there's a joke that one of the big trading houses used to play around with with uh the copper price and do big trades on Tuesday morning after everyone got a bit drunk at uh TriLand's drinks.
00:48:58.159 --> 00:49:01.199
So there is a chance of volatility next week.
00:49:01.440 --> 00:49:03.119
Narratives can circulate, you know.
00:49:03.199 --> 00:49:10.960
Chances are hopefully some some years the stories you expect to talk about are the only thing you do talk about.
00:49:11.119 --> 00:49:15.360
Hopefully, there's some topics that we haven't discussed that become really interesting next week.
00:49:15.440 --> 00:49:18.320
You know, um I know the FT are doing a mining summit at the moment.
00:49:18.400 --> 00:49:21.760
There'll probably be really interesting sound bites from from that coming.
00:49:21.920 --> 00:49:28.960
Uh, we're doing um some some uh presentations and and forecast and uh discussions next week ourselves.
00:49:29.119 --> 00:49:32.159
Um but there's a number of conferences and a number of things to look out for.
00:49:32.239 --> 00:49:38.480
So just sort of I think there will be some interesting narratives that we haven't covered and and and keep an eye out for that.
00:49:38.559 --> 00:49:46.000
And and if you bump into um a man wearing a linen suit at any of the drinks next week, uh and a dodgy shirt.
00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:52.480
Uh a dodgy shirt and a and a dodgy mullet and um dodgy moustache, then that's me, and come and say hello.
00:49:52.559 --> 00:50:03.679
And um yep, I'm sure we'll all be at the you know various various drinks, various cocktails next week, and and and hopefully be really good opportunity to try and to try and understand this market.
00:50:03.760 --> 00:50:06.960
There's very hard to understand at the moment the moment a little bit better.
00:50:07.840 --> 00:50:08.800
Great closing statement.
00:50:08.880 --> 00:50:09.840
Thank you, Albert.
00:50:09.920 --> 00:50:11.679
That will draw us to a close.
00:50:11.760 --> 00:50:15.840
That's that's it for this what is now a fairly bumper edition, um pre-Elem.
00:50:16.400 --> 00:50:17.280
A mammoth edition, yeah.
00:50:17.599 --> 00:50:20.159
Mammoth edition pre-Lemi Week 2026.
00:50:20.320 --> 00:50:24.159
We'll be back next week um with some round-up commentary.
00:50:24.239 --> 00:50:27.199
Um, but with that, let's uh let's close this out.
00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:32.079
Thanks again for your comments, Albert, and for everyone listening uh to this episode of Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
00:50:32.159 --> 00:50:33.360
Thanks for joining.
00:50:34.239 --> 00:50:38.719
If you found the show useful, follow us on Spotify so you don't miss next week's episode.
00:50:38.960 --> 00:50:45.840
For deeper analysis and data on copper supply, demand and prices, visit benchmarkminerals.com forward slash copper.
00:50:46.079 --> 00:50:50.320
Thanks for listening and join us next week as we break down the latest moves in the copper market.
00:50:50.719 --> 00:50:51.760
Bye for now.