WEBVTT
00:00:11.279 --> 00:00:12.960
Hello and welcome to Champ EDC.
00:00:13.039 --> 00:00:17.760
Here's the top story from Black Dirk Daily today, which is Monday, November 2nd, 2026.
00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:26.000
Today we're going to talk about the dairy margin coverage payment, a bit of a drop in cattle markets, and what the midterms could mean for farmers.
00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:27.600
So let's get to it.
00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:36.240
Dairy markets weakened throughout the month of September compared to August as production continued to outpace demand, greatly influencing milk prices.
00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:44.719
At the same time, USDA reports estimated larger corn yields and tighter stocks, resulting in higher feed costs for many dairy operations.
00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:52.079
All of these factors led to a dairy margin coverage margin of$8.35 a hundredweight in September.
00:00:52.399 --> 00:00:59.119
At this margin, September is now the fourth month an indemnity payment will be issued under the program in 2026.
00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:10.400
USDA ag prices report released Friday established the program calculations, DMC program margin factors for September compared to the month prior, were as follows.
00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:14.079
Dari Alfalfay was at$241 a ton, down$2.
00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:19.120
Corn at$4.81 a bushel, which was up 36 cents.
00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:25.120
Soybean meal was at$365 a ton, up$45.65.
00:01:25.680 --> 00:01:31.599
Total feed costs were at$11.15 per$100 weight, which was up 69 cents.
00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:36.159
Milk price came in at$19.50$100 weight, which was down 30 cents.
00:01:36.239 --> 00:01:44.079
And all of this results in the margin above feed costs at$8.35 a hundredweight, which was down 99 cents.
00:01:45.280 --> 00:01:55.359
All but two states in the 24 major dairy states reported a loss in the all-milk price, while Idaho and Washington reported price improvements of 50 and 80 cents, respectively.
00:01:55.680 --> 00:02:00.319
Remaining states, all milk prices declined by as little as 20 cents to more than a dollar.
00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:07.040
Largest decline was Florida, which was down a buck forty, a hundred weight to twenty-three dollars and thirty cents.
00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:12.240
As of October 29th, market forecasts predict that the worst is behind us.
00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:21.039
While the all milk price shrunk and the total feed cost grew to decide September's margin, October's pricing factors are set to move in the opposite direction.
00:02:21.360 --> 00:02:36.719
All milk prices anticipated to climb to$20.100 weight as the total feed costs stumble is timed to$11.21 per hundredweight, resulting in a predicted DMC margin of eight dollars and seventy-nine cents a hundredweight.
00:02:36.879 --> 00:02:43.280
If realized, the margin would still trigger payments at the$9 per hundredweight and above coverage levels.
00:02:43.919 --> 00:02:58.479
Margin is expected to improve in the two remaining months of the year, with November and December's margin above the$9.50 per hundredweight coverage level,$11.34 and$10.97.91$100 weight, respectively.
00:02:58.800 --> 00:03:06.800
Yet markets can change, and reminder that enrollment for the 2027 DMC program ends on December 18th.
00:03:07.759 --> 00:03:16.400
Switching over to cattle markets, cattle futures were down sharply again on Friday, and live cattle have been down every day except Monday after the bullish cattle on feed report.
00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:20.159
Is this more than just profit taking and a healthy correction?
00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:30.479
Scott Verilec with Kuma Kuma Verilec says the own rally out of the report was disappointing and did not last long, indicating a possible exhaustion on the charge.
00:03:30.800 --> 00:03:36.719
He says the market doesn't have the big fund length to help push the market higher, which is part of the struggle.
00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:42.479
So far, futures were holding support areas, including the uptrend lines Verelek has been watching.
00:03:49.280 --> 00:03:56.080
He adds that when the December futures are trading underneath what next June spring cattle prices are, that's a negative sign.
00:03:56.400 --> 00:03:59.280
He says that means our full spreads aren't going to work.
00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:01.439
And that can set us up for some trouble.
00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:05.280
Cattle futures broke earlier in the week with lower cash trade.
00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:17.759
Northern Dress Business was reported on Wednesday at$350 to$352, which was seven to nine dollars lower than last week, and prices ranged from three forty-eight up to three sixty.
00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:22.319
Live sale prices ranged from two twenty-three to two twenty-six.
00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:29.199
Erlech says the cash in the north has been sluggish so for weeks, so he was expecting the break in the future.
00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:33.519
So let's finish up with a quick look at politics.
00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:38.240
After what seems like an endless campaign season, the midterm elections are finally within sight.
00:04:38.399 --> 00:04:41.600
Thank God that all of the ads are going to stop.
00:04:51.920 --> 00:04:57.439
Suffice to say there's lots of nervous energy as everyone anxiously awaits the final votes.
00:04:58.079 --> 00:05:03.920
Rural Americans have typically been strong supporters of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
00:05:04.240 --> 00:05:05.680
But this year could be different.
00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:08.879
Polling shows farmer enthusiasm is waning.
00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:14.240
Many blame high tariffs and foreign entanglements for historically high input costs.
00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:20.879
That appears to have given rural Democrats a fighting chance in normally red states like Kansas and Iowa.
00:05:21.360 --> 00:05:28.399
Many non-traditional Democrats are working to convince voters that it's their policies that will deliver economic results.
00:05:28.639 --> 00:05:30.959
But will rural voters buy the pitch?
00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:41.519
Yarrow says the Republican consultants and longtime Republicans she's talked to say their biggest concern isn't necessarily that farmers will all of a sudden vote for Democrats.
00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:50.720
The big fear for Republicans is that farmers will just stay home or folks in rural areas will just stay home and they don't feel motivated to vote.
00:05:51.040 --> 00:05:58.720
I will say that whatever your political affiliation, voting in a democracy like ours is what makes us uniquely American.
00:05:58.879 --> 00:06:02.480
So be sure to get out tomorrow and cast your vote.
00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:04.399
Well, that's all for now.
00:06:04.480 --> 00:06:07.600
As always, thanks for tuning in to Chat BDC.
00:06:07.680 --> 00:06:09.839
I just wanted to make one quick comment.
00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:18.319
This past Saturday, which was Halloween, uh fittingly enough, probably, marked the one-year anniversary of the start of Chat BDC.
00:06:18.480 --> 00:06:22.959
It's been a learning experience for sure, but I've certainly loved putting this together every day.
00:06:23.120 --> 00:06:28.560
It really helps me stay ahead of the news, and I think it provides a useful service for folks.
00:06:28.879 --> 00:06:33.199
For those of you who are loyal listeners, thank you so much for your support.
00:06:33.600 --> 00:06:38.160
On this one year anniversary, I'd love to hear from you about what you think of the podcast.
00:06:38.399 --> 00:06:47.600
Drop me a comment on your listening platform or send me a note at mic at black dirtcommunications.com, which is my email address.
00:06:47.839 --> 00:06:53.439
I truly appreciate your listening and we hope to continue to provide even great content moving forward.
00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:59.120
One way you can help us is to tell your friends and let's see if we can get some groundsmell going.
00:06:59.439 --> 00:07:00.800
Thanks again for your support.
00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:04.639
I'll be back tomorrow with more business news across the edge and financial markets.
00:07:04.800 --> 00:07:07.839
Until then, I'm Mike Opperman, and goodbye for now.
00:00:11.279 --> 00:00:12.960
Hello and welcome to Champ EDC.
00:00:13.039 --> 00:00:17.760
Here's the top story from Black Dirk Daily today, which is Monday, November 2nd, 2026.
00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:26.000
Today we're going to talk about the dairy margin coverage payment, a bit of a drop in cattle markets, and what the midterms could mean for farmers.
00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:27.600
So let's get to it.
00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:36.240
Dairy markets weakened throughout the month of September compared to August as production continued to outpace demand, greatly influencing milk prices.
00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:44.719
At the same time, USDA reports estimated larger corn yields and tighter stocks, resulting in higher feed costs for many dairy operations.
00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:52.079
All of these factors led to a dairy margin coverage margin of$8.35 a hundredweight in September.
00:00:52.399 --> 00:00:59.119
At this margin, September is now the fourth month an indemnity payment will be issued under the program in 2026.
00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:10.400
USDA ag prices report released Friday established the program calculations, DMC program margin factors for September compared to the month prior, were as follows.
00:01:10.640 --> 00:01:14.079
Dari Alfalfay was at$241 a ton, down$2.
00:01:15.040 --> 00:01:19.120
Corn at$4.81 a bushel, which was up 36 cents.
00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:25.120
Soybean meal was at$365 a ton, up$45.65.
00:01:25.680 --> 00:01:31.599
Total feed costs were at$11.15 per$100 weight, which was up 69 cents.
00:01:31.920 --> 00:01:36.159
Milk price came in at$19.50$100 weight, which was down 30 cents.
00:01:36.239 --> 00:01:44.079
And all of this results in the margin above feed costs at$8.35 a hundredweight, which was down 99 cents.
00:01:45.280 --> 00:01:55.359
All but two states in the 24 major dairy states reported a loss in the all-milk price, while Idaho and Washington reported price improvements of 50 and 80 cents, respectively.
00:01:55.680 --> 00:02:00.319
Remaining states, all milk prices declined by as little as 20 cents to more than a dollar.
00:02:00.879 --> 00:02:07.040
Largest decline was Florida, which was down a buck forty, a hundred weight to twenty-three dollars and thirty cents.
00:02:07.840 --> 00:02:12.240
As of October 29th, market forecasts predict that the worst is behind us.
00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:21.039
While the all milk price shrunk and the total feed cost grew to decide September's margin, October's pricing factors are set to move in the opposite direction.
00:02:21.360 --> 00:02:36.719
All milk prices anticipated to climb to$20.100 weight as the total feed costs stumble is timed to$11.21 per hundredweight, resulting in a predicted DMC margin of eight dollars and seventy-nine cents a hundredweight.
00:02:36.879 --> 00:02:43.280
If realized, the margin would still trigger payments at the$9 per hundredweight and above coverage levels.
00:02:43.919 --> 00:02:58.479
Margin is expected to improve in the two remaining months of the year, with November and December's margin above the$9.50 per hundredweight coverage level,$11.34 and$10.97.91$100 weight, respectively.
00:02:58.800 --> 00:03:06.800
Yet markets can change, and reminder that enrollment for the 2027 DMC program ends on December 18th.
00:03:07.759 --> 00:03:16.400
Switching over to cattle markets, cattle futures were down sharply again on Friday, and live cattle have been down every day except Monday after the bullish cattle on feed report.
00:03:16.560 --> 00:03:20.159
Is this more than just profit taking and a healthy correction?
00:03:20.800 --> 00:03:30.479
Scott Verilec with Kuma Kuma Verilec says the own rally out of the report was disappointing and did not last long, indicating a possible exhaustion on the charge.
00:03:30.800 --> 00:03:36.719
He says the market doesn't have the big fund length to help push the market higher, which is part of the struggle.
00:03:36.960 --> 00:03:42.479
So far, futures were holding support areas, including the uptrend lines Verelek has been watching.
00:03:49.280 --> 00:03:56.080
He adds that when the December futures are trading underneath what next June spring cattle prices are, that's a negative sign.
00:03:56.400 --> 00:03:59.280
He says that means our full spreads aren't going to work.
00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:01.439
And that can set us up for some trouble.
00:04:02.080 --> 00:04:05.280
Cattle futures broke earlier in the week with lower cash trade.
00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:17.759
Northern Dress Business was reported on Wednesday at$350 to$352, which was seven to nine dollars lower than last week, and prices ranged from three forty-eight up to three sixty.
00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:22.319
Live sale prices ranged from two twenty-three to two twenty-six.
00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:29.199
Erlech says the cash in the north has been sluggish so for weeks, so he was expecting the break in the future.
00:04:29.360 --> 00:04:33.519
So let's finish up with a quick look at politics.
00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:38.240
After what seems like an endless campaign season, the midterm elections are finally within sight.
00:04:38.399 --> 00:04:41.600
Thank God that all of the ads are going to stop.
00:04:51.920 --> 00:04:57.439
Suffice to say there's lots of nervous energy as everyone anxiously awaits the final votes.
00:04:58.079 --> 00:05:03.920
Rural Americans have typically been strong supporters of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
00:05:04.240 --> 00:05:05.680
But this year could be different.
00:05:05.920 --> 00:05:08.879
Polling shows farmer enthusiasm is waning.
00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:14.240
Many blame high tariffs and foreign entanglements for historically high input costs.
00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:20.879
That appears to have given rural Democrats a fighting chance in normally red states like Kansas and Iowa.
00:05:21.360 --> 00:05:28.399
Many non-traditional Democrats are working to convince voters that it's their policies that will deliver economic results.
00:05:28.639 --> 00:05:30.959
But will rural voters buy the pitch?
00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:41.519
Yarrow says the Republican consultants and longtime Republicans she's talked to say their biggest concern isn't necessarily that farmers will all of a sudden vote for Democrats.
00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:50.720
The big fear for Republicans is that farmers will just stay home or folks in rural areas will just stay home and they don't feel motivated to vote.
00:05:51.040 --> 00:05:58.720
I will say that whatever your political affiliation, voting in a democracy like ours is what makes us uniquely American.
00:05:58.879 --> 00:06:02.480
So be sure to get out tomorrow and cast your vote.
00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:04.399
Well, that's all for now.
00:06:04.480 --> 00:06:07.600
As always, thanks for tuning in to Chat BDC.
00:06:07.680 --> 00:06:09.839
I just wanted to make one quick comment.
00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:18.319
This past Saturday, which was Halloween, uh fittingly enough, probably, marked the one-year anniversary of the start of Chat BDC.
00:06:18.480 --> 00:06:22.959
It's been a learning experience for sure, but I've certainly loved putting this together every day.
00:06:23.120 --> 00:06:28.560
It really helps me stay ahead of the news, and I think it provides a useful service for folks.
00:06:28.879 --> 00:06:33.199
For those of you who are loyal listeners, thank you so much for your support.
00:06:33.600 --> 00:06:38.160
On this one year anniversary, I'd love to hear from you about what you think of the podcast.
00:06:38.399 --> 00:06:47.600
Drop me a comment on your listening platform or send me a note at mic at black dirtcommunications.com, which is my email address.
00:06:47.839 --> 00:06:53.439
I truly appreciate your listening and we hope to continue to provide even great content moving forward.
00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:59.120
One way you can help us is to tell your friends and let's see if we can get some groundsmell going.
00:06:59.439 --> 00:07:00.800
Thanks again for your support.
00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:04.639
I'll be back tomorrow with more business news across the edge and financial markets.
00:07:04.800 --> 00:07:07.839
Until then, I'm Mike Opperman, and goodbye for now.
