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(Tim Reinbott) Well, welcome today to Tim's
Take, and we are with Dr. Zack Leasor,
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our State Extension Climatologist. (Zach Leasor)
Yes, thank you for having me, Tim. (Tim) You know,
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Zach, the climatologist, you either get credit or
get blamed for everything. (Zach) Yes, absolutely.
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And, uh... sometimes it feels like it can be both
at the same time depending on what the weather's
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doing in Missouri, too. (Tim) And we had that this
past year. We had very wet conditions. Actually,
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we thought we were going to have a really great
growing season, then it turns out dry. (Zach) Yes.
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And that kind of happened last year, too. (Tim)
It did, didn't it? And... and... and what causes
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that? (Zach) Yeah. So, you know, this year we
really flipped the switch. It was wet in... in
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April, May, and June. And in fact, um... some
areas in southeast and southern Missouri were
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too wet. Uh, April was the fourth wettest April on
record for the state. Um, with records going back
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to 1895. And a lot of that was from southeast
and... and southern Missouri as well. So,
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um... that started out the season, but once we
got to July, um... really midway through July,
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I-70 and south in the state, the... the rain
really shut off, and we didn't see significant
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precipitation until, uh... this last week here in
mid-September. So, um... that's been tricky to...
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to watch here. And it's really characteristic,
though, of Missouri's climate. Being in the...
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the center of the US, uh... we have a continental
climate, which means we get all four seasons, but
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it also means we can get, uh... all of these air
masses moving from around us. And so, it's really
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easy to switch from, uh... maybe a wet pattern
to a dry pattern. In this part of the country, in
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the... the central of the US, uh... that's really
a notable thing. And so the past two years, we've
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seen that switch from wet to dry so quickly that
we actually call that a... a flash drought. And
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so that's different from a regular drought where
we think about monthly or seasonal differences
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and kind of a long-term drought event. These
flash droughts, once the rain stops and if it's
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really hot like in July or August, um... you see
conditions evolve in just a few weeks as opposed
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to throughout the season. And so that's been two
consecutive years with the flash drought. (Tim) Is
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that because the jet stream has went back north?
(Zach) Yeah. So, we're really prone this time of
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year, um... for the jet stream to retreat far to
the north, and then that leaves us just looking at
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scattered precipitation chances. So, once that
jet stream moves to the north, we don't get,
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um... these big low-pressure systems with a front
moving through where the whole state's going to
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get needed rainfall. Instead, like we saw this
summer, even when we got some rain in July and
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August, it was these popup thunderstorms, and it
was tough to really get a... a good rainfall from
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those. And so, that's been, uh... tricky and...
and is something we're still seeing here as we're
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warm going into October is... is no sign of
that jet stream currently. (Tim) Wow. And,
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um... lot... a lot of times we're so dry that when
we do start getting a big front coming through,
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it just all evaporates before it gets
to a dry area. (Zach) Yes. And that's
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been something that always interests me is, uh...
researching land atmosphere interactions. And so,
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um... learning how a dry ground, dry vegetation,
um... can actually impact how much moisture is
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in the lower atmosphere. And so, you're right. As
these systems, um... move across, we do know that
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just those boundary conditions can also influence
and, uh... maybe weaken some of the amount of
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moisture there too. So, uh... kind of fascinating
but scary also because when you're in drought,
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it can kind of lead to more drought. (Tim) Right!
Because it seemed like it takes a really big
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system to... to end the drought and start going
back the other way. (Zach) Yes. And... and that's
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what we saw last year. It was around Halloween
into the first week of November, um... we just
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got several rounds of significant rainfall, and
it kind of helped us out. And so, that'll be
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the big question at this point because now we've
had this drought over the past couple of months,
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and we now see these precipitation deficits. Um...
the rain was helpful last week in mid-September,
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but we need to see kind of a wetter pattern,
like you mentioned, to fully recover and...
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and end this drought. (Tim) So, do some of our
big droughts start actually in the fall, late
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summer of the previous year and fall? (Zach) Yes.
Um... so we don't always see a... a full growing
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season drought. And even just looking at the
past four years, we've had a drought every year,
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but '22, '24, and now '25 were just kind of late
season events. And so, that's been interesting to
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me learning about Missouri's kind of drought
characteristics because, uh... it has a lot
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of impacts on what... what the ag impacts are as
well. Because, if we saw this full growing season
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drought, we might have, uh... issues everywhere,
but when it's certain times of the year, it really
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changes that too. (Tim) So the winter time, late
fall/winter can change that? Can get us back to
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more of a normal pattern again? (Zach) Yeah.
So, um... usually during the... the winter,
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uh... on average, that's a time of year when we
do see some soil moisture recharge. And so, that's
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really important to... to have that precip as we
go into the winter and even during those colder
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months, so that once we get into the spring next
year, we're not, uh... starting with reduced soil
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moisture there. (Tim) So, speaking of this fall
and winter, what are you thinking? (Zach) Yeah.
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So, you know, as we speak today, looking at the
first week of October, unfortunately, it looks
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like we've seen warm and dry. And so, um... we are
still dealing with drought here, and... and we'll
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be looking for rainfall. Unfortunately, the...
the kind of official outlook for October from
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the Climate Prediction Center in NOAA is leaning
on the... the dry side. So, um, they're... they're
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calling for slightly, uh... drier than average,
or... or the probability of slightly drier than
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average conditions. And so, one takeaway I have
from their forecast is, though it isn't very
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strong on the probabilities for... for dryness,
but there's not much of an indication of a wet
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October in their forecast. And so, to me that's...
that says the drought will kind of persist or even
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get worse if we do have a dry October there.
So that's a little concerning. And then also to
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kind of go along with that dry forecast, they're
forecasting a higher probability of above average
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temperatures too. And so, kind of a what we'd call
a persistence forecast. So we had a warm and dry
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September and... and August, so we... we would
expect that into October, too. So, um... maybe a
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late, uh... frost as a result of that because once
we get into that third and last week of October,
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that's when on average we see that first frost
unless you're, um... in St. Louis or the Bootheel
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where it's a little bit later into November, um...
and then the drought there. And then looking into
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the long-term though, there might be a little bit
more optimism. Um... one thing we're looking for
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is the chance of a La Nina. And so, last year
was a La Nina winter. And when we look back
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for the state, it was characterized by a really
active start to the winter. November and December
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we had a lot of rainfall, and then we got into
this cold and snowy pattern as well. And that's,
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um... really what we typically see in this
part of the country for a La Nina event,
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and so, we're watching that now. Um... the kind of
factor that's making it a little bit difficult is,
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uh... La Nina is where we monitor the Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperatures. And uh... when
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they're cooler than average, that's these La
Nina events. And right now, the temperatures are
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actually closer to normal. Uh... we jokingly call
it a La Nada because we haven't gotten to that La
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Nina yet, but the forecast is for over the next
couple of months, the temperatures to cool enough
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where we're officially in a La Nina, but it's
expected to be a really weak La Nina. Um... just
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barely crossing that threshold, and then maybe not
last that long. And so, as a seasonal forecaster,
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that's usually the first thing we look at is
El Nino or La Nina. That explains a lot of
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the variance for a season, um... but we don't have
that tool as much if it's a weak or short-lived La
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Nina. So, I'd be optimistic for a La Nina winter
like last year where we did see drought recovery,
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um... but as of right now, that maybe cold and
snowy, or cold and wet, forecast could be...
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have a lot of uncertainty to behind it too. (Tim)
So, if we don't... so, if we have a weak La Nina,
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what about then this spring and next summer?
Do we have any idea on that? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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um... these models that try and forecast the
really slow changes of ocean temperatures, um...
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they are predicting us to eventually warm into
an El Nino next year. But I will note that the
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models have really struggled this past year. Um...
I think they've been slow to the... the changes.
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They've been predicting this La Nina event to
happen since, uh... this summer. Um, but it
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kind of keeps getting pushed back. And so, um...
while next year could be an El Nino of a year, and
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that's kind of what they're... they're showing,
um... still a lot of uncertainty there. (Tim) So
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if we're in between El Nino and La Nina, what's
usually happens? What's... what's a typical summer
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like then? (Zach) Yeah. So that's when we don't
have as much kind of good, what we call composites
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or analog years. So when we don't have the El
Nino or La Nina that we see these characteristics,
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um... there's not as much, uh... of a consensus
on what the weather will be. And so, uh... you see
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a lot of variability, and it's difficult to kind
of make a... make a forecast when you don't have,
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uh... this signal here. So, um... and this year,
you know, it... it... it's... it's hard to tell
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if... if maybe, um... as these surface, uh... or
as these sea surface temperatures started to cool,
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is that why we got dry because usually a La Nina,
um... can mean a drier fall. Uh... but it's still
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such a... a weak La Nina, it's hard to really
draw that relationship. (Tim) So, what were we
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in last spring and the summer then? Were we just
in between or were we at El Nino? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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actually we came out of La Nina last year. Um...
warmed into this La Nada. We were wondering if
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we would go into an El Nino, and then now have
kind of dipped back into La Nina and will be over
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the next couple of months. So, um... and that
happens too. You don't always flip from El Nino
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to La Nina. Sometimes, uh... like... like this
year, we can go to normal and then back to La
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Nina. So that's been kind of an interesting thing
to see this year. (Tim) You know, in my career,
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as far as agricultural career for 40... almost 50
years I guess now, uh... the two biggest droughts
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(1980 and 2012), to me all started that fall
because both times we had these beautiful falls
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of getting everything harvested, and then we
followed up with a really bad summer. And so,
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that was probably a La Nina then going to El
Nino, wasn't it? (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) It was...
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that's... that's when that happens. (Zach) Yeah. And
that would explain, especially 2012 too, where,
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um... we also went from that a wet year in
2011, which probably led to a good harvest,
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but then dried out and got into really one of our
more extreme, not just drought, but warmest year
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on record too. So that was a very strong El Nino
event too. And so, and... and that observation is
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really why we watch these as climatologists
is because the ocean temperatures evolve so
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slowly that they really do have an impact on
these longer term trends. So an El Nino is not
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going to help you forecast like a thunderstorm
this week or the 7-day forecast, but these,
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you know, three to six month kind of cooling or
warming trends, you can really try and follow
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that way. (Tim) And then blocking highs can have a
lot to do with it too, can't it? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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a lot of times when we get in a heat wave
or just kind of a drought like this fall,
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you hear about these blocking highs or a heat
dome, just an area of high pressure that's really
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suppressing any kind of convection or moisture.
Um... those can be related to El Nino and La Nina,
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um... when... when you get a blocking high for a
few weeks or a few months. And that's because,
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um... it's not just those ocean temperatures that
are directly impacting our temperatures in precip,
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um... but they're impacting the just
general atmospheric circulation,
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so the global jet stream as well. Um... and so
you see these El Nino/La Nina impacts everywhere
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here as well. (Tim) So what in the world changes
the... the temperature of the ocean off the coast
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of South America? What... what... what changes
that? (Zach) Yeah. So it's, uh... it's really
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kind of a... an interesting phenomenon, and it's
a cycle and a feedback between the atmosphere and
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ocean as well. And so, um... eventually what you
get is a low pressure that... that sets up kind of
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stationary off the coast of South America. And so,
that low pressure is generally kind of rising air
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there at the surface, and that starts bringing up
cooler water from below the surface there as well.
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And then your low pressure, um... also sets up
with a... kind of a... a high pressure farther
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west and you get this, uh... flow, westerly
flow where now you move that cool water,
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um... to the... the, uh... area of higher pressure
too there as well. And so, um... this kind of goes
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back and forth, this process where you'll develop
the... the atmospheric pressure that pulls the
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water and then... and then moves it across.
And so basically, you've got this dipole in
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the eastern and western Pacific of cooler and...
and warmer, uh... sea surface temperatures. And
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so when we measure El Nino or La Nina, there's
actually, uh... several different boxes, but
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the most commonly used is called the... the 3.4,
and it's kind of just generally across the... the
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whole Pacific, but from, uh... five degrees south
to 5 degrees north. So that's where you'll really
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see those changes in the water temperature.
(Tim) And because they're southwest of us,
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that's where we're... it effects us, isn't it?
I suppose? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... but we really
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see the... the global effects because there
at the equator, um... you know, this kind of
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starts where we see our... our global circulation
patterns where ultimately the jet stream and all
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these highs and low pressure, they're... they're
really designed to move heat from the equator to
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the poles. And so, when you change what's going
on at the equator, it really changed kind of
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the patterns as well. And so, that's why it's so
important in that area in the Pacific. (Tim) They
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have documented some ice that we're losing
in Antarctica. Can that affect everything,
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these... these... these patterns too? (Zach) Yeah. So
that's where it gets tricky. Um... so we've seen,
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uh... quite a bit of sea ice loss in both
poles, including the Antarctic and Arctic,
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and that can impact, um... global sea surface
temperatures as well if there's enough, um... kind
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of ice there. So, as a climatologist, we're kind
of constantly trying to look at these sea surface
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temperatures relative to normal. And so, you know,
there's a lot of uncertainty with the ice because
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it doesn't just go into the ocean and immediately
cool the water. It can also impact sea surface
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currents which impact how different temperature
of water kind of piles up in the oceans there. So,
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we're measuring the sea surface temperature in
this box, but if it is changing due to other
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factors, we might be a little bit off on what our
La Nina or El Nino is. (Tim) Sure. Because the ice
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reflects sun, doesn't it? (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim)
So that can change the amount of heat absorbed
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and all that kind of... thing. (Zach) Yes. And so,
you could have cooling from the ice, but also then
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you're... you're removing your protection there
as well. So then, uh... now the water's absorbing,
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uh... more of that sunlight too. So, uh... a
lot of things that can change. (Tim) It looks
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like for 2025/2026 winter, we're setting up
somewhat like last year, but maybe not quite as
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strong. (Zach) Correct. Yes. And so, um... for me,
I'm... I'm... I'm looking for kind of an active
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pattern in the winter, um... and could... could
be snowy, especially once we get into January and
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February when we see most of our snow and maybe
cooler temperatures there as well. (Tim) But a
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beautiful harvest. (Zach) A beautiful harvest.
Yeah. So, I mean, some are enjoying this dry
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pattern in early October if... if you do need to
get out there. (Tim) You know, I've... last couple
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of falls, I've planted wheat, and I always keep
remembering, "If you plant wheat in the dust, your
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bins were bust." And we've had some really good
wheat yields in the... in the... in the spring.
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So... (Zach) Yes. And I think hopefully this year
the... the mid-September rain will help for some
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fall planting, too. Um... if we hadn't got that,
things might be a little bit more dire with the...
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the drought situation. (Tim) All right. Well...
well, thanks. So... so... so we do have something
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to look forward to that will... could break this
pattern and... and by the next spring and summer,
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we could be in totally different... back into a
more of a normal rainfall pattern. (Zach) Yes.
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There is reason for... for optimism. Um...
and I'll note too, I've... we've gone now four
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consecutive growing seasons with drought, and I've
gotten the question, how rare is that in Missouri?
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And... and these were... have been severe
droughts as well going up to D2 or D3 on the
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US drought monitor. And so looking back at... at
our climate, we do see these long stretches, um...
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but it is getting pretty rare. So, um... some of
our... our longest droughts ever, uh... would be,
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uh... from 1931 to '36. We had five consecutive
growing seasons in the Dust Bowl. Maybe some
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relief in the winter, but if you look at just
April to November, they just kept getting hit with
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drought. Um... and then also the early 50s. So,
1950 through '54, five consecutive drought years
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there. So, we're not as extreme each of the past
few years as some of those in the 30s and 50s,
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but if we saw another drought year, um... that's
one of the longest stretches on our... our climate
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record. So it has been kind of an unusual drought
stretch there. (Tim) Yeah. I've always heard my
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dad and those groups talking about the 30s and
the 50s being pretty rough years. (Zach) Yeah,
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the 50s don't get as much attention because
I think that... that we learned so much from
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the Dust Bowl that the impacts were a little bit
better mitigated, but still just from a weather
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perspective, it was just as hot and dry then
as... as far as extremes. (Tim) I heard some,
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uh... farmers talking about how much more
drought tolerant corn is now than it used
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to be. (Zach) Yes! (Tim) And that's mitigated some
of these issues. (Zach) And I've... I've seen that
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too. I don't have a lot of expertise with the...
the yields, but when I look at the climate data
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and then corn yields, for example, in Missouri
over the past 30 years, you see this increasing
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yield, and it's sometimes hard as a climatologist
to look at that year and see maybe a drought or no
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drought and the impact it has on the corn because,
uh... they've definitely become more resilient,
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and you still get high yields when the weather's
not perfect. (Tim) You know, I was looking at the
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Sanborn Field data and, um... I was trying
to figure out when we went with hybrid corn,
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did that make a difference on the... on the...
on the resiliency, you know... you know, to... to
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the... to the drought and such. But I also saw in
that period you're talking about in the early 30s,
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some zero corn yields. (Zach) Wow. And I
think today you... you wouldn't see those
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zeros. (Tim) No. No, you wouldn't. (Zach)
You'd at least grow something and... and
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manage. (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) So that's
fascinating to... (Tim) Yeah. Even comparing,
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we mentioned 1980 earlier and 2012, yet it was...
'12 was just as bad as '80. (Zach) Sure. (Tim) But
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we had a lot more corn yield. (Zach) Yes. (Tim)
And soybean yield. So... so we are... our breeders
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are helping us out a lot on that. (Zach) Yeah,
and it's exciting for... for me too because all
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I do as a climatologist is... is tell us how dry
it is, but it's good that there's hope. You know,
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others are finding ways to address this situation
where we're going to see drought in Missouri,
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what practices or... or what breeding techniques can
make things more resilient. (Tim) Yeah, I... I
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know we... we... we... we take a lot of soil data
in... in the summer with and without cover crops
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and we're seeing that we have more soil moisture
in the middle of the summer with a cover crop
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than we do without. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) Little
things like that that we can do. (Zach) Yeah,
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and... and I definitely, coming from a non-ag
background but talking to farmers about drought,
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hear a lot about that. They're thinking
about solutions like cover crops or what
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different forages can they plant that might be
a little bit more resilient to drought. And so,
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um... that's really interesting to... to learn
about as well. (Tim) All right. All right. Well,
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before we close on this, anything else you want
to say about our forecast over the next six
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months or so? (Zach) Yeah. Well, whenever kind of
forecasting drought, I hope I'm wrong, and... and
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we see a lot of rainfall here and... and a quicker
recovery than expected. (Tim) Well, let's wait
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till harvest gets done first. (Zach) Yes! That's
a good compromise. (Tim) That's right. All right.
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Well, hi, folks! Welcome back to Tim's Take,
and we're continuing our discussion with Dr.
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Zach Leasor, our State Extension Climatologist.
But now we're going to talk about the Mesonet and
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some neat things that you're going to be starting
here real soon. (Zach Leasor) I definitely wanted
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to talk about an exciting project that we're
working on with the Missouri Department of Natural
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Resources. It's called the Missouri Hydrology
Information Center, or MoHIC. There's a lot of
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different... (Tim) MoHIC?! (Zach) MoHIC. That's
correct. (Tim) Missouri hick. (Zach) Yes. But,
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uh... no, MoHIC is a... is a really exciting
project. It in... it involves more than just,
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uh... the Mesonet and the Missouri Climate Center,
but our part is really exciting because we're
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working on soil moisture monitoring and expanding
that across the state. And so, this is something
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that's really important here in Missouri, but
honestly, all across the plains and the Midwest,
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these states are taking initiatives like Missouri,
um... to invest in more soil moisture data, to,
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um... learn more about what happens
after it rains, uh... whether that...
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that rainfall is getting into the soil and...
and monitor droughts and floods as well. So,
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uh... lots of exciting things with soil moisture
we're working on right now. (Tim) Because on... on
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the, uh... on the Mesonet, describe that real
quick. (Zach) Yeah, so the Missouri Mesonet,
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um... has been in existence since the mid-90s.
Um... but it is a network of 47 automated weather
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stations across the... the state of Missouri.
So, these automated weather stations mean that,
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um... they provide lots of different weather
data, not just rainfall but temperature, humidity,
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um... winds, even some soil temperature data
and other variables, but every five minutes.
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And then these data are available, uh...
free online at the Mesonet as well. And so,
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um... so these stations have... have been in
existence, and they're good for real-time,
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you know, decision making. If you need to see if
it rained last night or check the winds before you
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go out, that data is right there. Certainly helps
to monitor severe storm events. But I think the
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real value, um... has been now that we have the
climatology with the Mesonet too. So, uh... the
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Mesonet has been in existence long before I got
here, and... and the previous state climatologist
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Pat Guinan and, uh... John Travlos, who still
manages the Mesonet, um... they've worked a
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long time and some of these stations now have 30
years of data! And that's a local climatology.
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It's measured right where you're working or... or
studying, and... and that's important because we
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know weather can really vary over short...
short spaces. And so, at those locations,
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we've got the local average annual rainfall,
how much we expect each year, but also based
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on temperatures, we know the probability of frost
dates and planting dates as well. So, you start to
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build all of this decision-making information once
you've invested in... in collecting that data for a
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really long time. (Tim) Because one time we were
talking about how you start talking about drought,
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that that's changed because we are... are
you talking about compared to 1934? Well,
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it's pretty wet this year, you know, because we
had those severe droughts. So, we have to compare
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it to something, and now you got the data that you
can compare it to. (Zach) Correct. And it's recent
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data, too, that we're always adding to. And it's
so important for things like drought. One of the
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things I work on as a climatologist is how do we
define drought? And we know drought is, uh... less
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than normal precipitation, but we need to know
the normal there too. And so that's one reason to
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have a climatology because we can look at... at,
for example, Sanborn Field, the two driest years,
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2012, which everyone expects, but kind of
surprisingly, 2023... (Tim) Yes! (Zach) ...at
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Sanborn was drier! And... and that kind of context
is... is really important. Now, it does get
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tricky, though, and... and that we kind of look
at the... the past 30 years as... as a normal,
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or once we feel confident in a kind of statistical
baseline to compare against, but sometimes that
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normal is changing too, which makes, uh...
drought assessment really tricky here. So,
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um... long-term data though, really helped to...
to tell the story with drought. (Tim) You know,
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sometimes even if you go... well, we're talking
about the just... just a growing season, but I
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think in 2012, it was terribly dry and the very
last couple days of August, we got a hurricane
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remnants and we got a big inch and 8/10ths rain.
Well, that kind of changes your... your monthly
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totals a little bit. It skews them just a little
bit. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So, you... you almost need
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to almost look at by day or week or something.
(Zach) Yeah! No, you're absolutely right. And the
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Mesonet gives us kind of more... I've mentioned,
localized information, but often times better,
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uh... resolution information for getting rainfall
and other things. And so, a lot of times most of
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our rainfall and... and snowfall data when you
see it on the news, for example, is coming from a
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rain gauge observer. Maybe it's a National Weather
Service or a volunteer observer, um... but these
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are usually going to be once a day, just rainfall
totals, or they will report snowfall too. That's
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a lot different than what the Mesonet can show.
We can show five minute rainfall data and look at
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things like the intensity of the rainfall, um...
and then look at the month as a total for example.
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It's... did this rain come an inch a week? Kind
of how we would want it, or did it stack up as
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well? Those are all reasons you want to keep a...
as high quality of a record of the data as you
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can. (Tim) I know I look at yours all the time
because I look at about four of them in this area
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just to try to see how, you know, how scattered
is... is the rain and... and such. And sometimes
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when I... a big front's coming, I'll look at some
of the ones that's... that's already passed. Like
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what do they get at Linneus? You know, for
example. (Zach) Absolutely. (Tim) Because
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it's coming this way. So I'll look, or... or
at Marshall or someplace and, oh! They only
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got a half inch. That means I'm not going to...
this... this is moving so fast. I'm not going to
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get much. (Zach) Yeah, and that real time's great
for that. And you can also see if a front's coming
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through, how cold is it getting behind there? And
for severe weather, unfortunately, we often pick
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up a lot of wind gusts that... that go into, you
know, a severe storm local report if we get a 50
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or 60 mph gust, too. So, really capture quite a
bit of information. (Tim) Well, we've used your
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data for... for insurance claims. (Zach) Yes.
(Tim) To say, "It did get to 60 miles an hour.
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Here it is." (Zach) Yes! (Tim) So that, that
helps, too. (Zach) That's what they're designed
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to... to measure, but um... they do unfortunately
get impacted by severe weather. And over the past,
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we've also seen hail, you know, hit the weather
stations and cause repairs, and even tornadoes as
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well. (Tim) So, you're going to be monitoring soil
moisture then? (Zach) Yeah, so that's kind of the
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next variable. So in the past, the Mesonets, at
a few stations, set up some projects to measure
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soil moisture, but only at some shallow depths
and for a few locations. With this MoHIC project,
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so the Mesonet and... and John and his team
are looking at installing soil moisture sensors
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at about half of the stations across the state.
Really, a lot of us have been making an evaluation
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of which stations. Some of the locations because
of the topography in the site or maybe the soil's
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been disturbed, it's just not a good site for
soil moisture monitoring. And then in some
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locations like Boone County, we might have some
redundancies, so pick it just a couple spots. Um,
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but it should be about half. And in fact, that's
already started. So, um... DNR is really leading
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the charge on digging and installing the...
the sensors. And so, the first installation was
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this fall at South Farm. And, uh, these sensors
are, uh... 15-inch soil moisture probes. And so,
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you would see two metal probes, and they go, uh...
horizontally into the side of a... a soil profile.
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And so, these are being buried at 2, 4, and 8 inch
depths, which uh... are really important near
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the... the surface for... (Tim) Right. Right.
(Zach) ...soil temperatures and... and some
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shallow root zone moisture, but also down to 20
and 40 inch depths where we're going to see a lot
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more slower response to moisture, um... there as
well. And so, um... that'll be soil moisture and
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temperature data at all of those depths, um...
in real time as well. So, um... by next season,
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we... we really expect a lot of these data to
be available, and... and also some tools we're
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building on top of the soil moisture as well.
(Tim) You'll have a... a grass crop or something
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grown on top of it that'll suck the water out?
(Zach) So, yeah. These will... all these will
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not be under bare soil. So these will all be
buried under sod. And so, that will be important
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to consider and that this is going to reflect
the soil moisture responding to the weather if
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we just kind of let it be under sod and... and
mow occasionally. So this isn't going to take
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into account, um... management, like you would
in a crop field of the soil moisture, or plant
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water use of something that uses a little bit more
water than sod, like if you had corn or soybeans.
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So there will be some kind of communication and
learning how to use that soil moisture, uh...
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for crop management as well. But I think it'll be
very important data. (Tim) Oh, it will! Because we
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can see... what I'm interested in is how much our
deeper profile get... gets depleted. (Zach) Yes!
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And, um... I think that's a very relevant question
to right now where we've been in a drought,
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and we just received some rainfall in September.
We can go outside and make a quick assessment,
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see things have kind of greened up, and you can
look at the soil and know that the top soil got
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wet, but how deep did that... that rainfall
infiltrate? Did we really get into the subsoil
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and... and recharge the moisture? That's what
these sensors can... can tell us there. And it
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is fascinating to see the moisture at different
depths because the top will respond pretty quickly
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after a rainfall event, but you kind of get
a better idea of the total water storage for
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those deeper depths that... that take a little bit
to dry out or... or moisten as well. (Tim) Well,
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as we discussed last time, over the winter is...
winter is when you can re... replenish some of
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that subsoil moisture. (Zach) Yes. There is a...
a kind of seasonal cycle of soil moisture in that,
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um... by the spring we call it a moist plateau
where usually on average your soil moisture is...
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is, you've got full saturated soils from a wet
spring, and then usually we see that soil moisture
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decrease to a minimum in the fall just because of
plant transpiration and evaporation, and then on
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average we recharge the soils during the winter.
And so, a lot of people think soil moisture and
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growing season conditions, but then we're... we're
looking down into the winter, and we'll... we
346
00:31:32,724 --> 00:31:37,228
will have the data to watch, you know, how... how
much is that soil moisture recharging? Are... are
347
00:31:37,228 --> 00:31:42,734
we getting over these winter months rainfall into
the deeper layers? And that can be tricky because,
348
00:31:42,734 --> 00:31:48,406
in Missouri on average, we don't get, you know, a
deep frost depth and... and see these frozen soils
349
00:31:48,406 --> 00:31:54,746
for a long time. But we do see periods where we'll
get cold and... and then have rainfall on frozen
350
00:31:54,746 --> 00:32:00,168
soils where it may not infiltrate and being able
to monitor that as well. (Tim) But a snowfall,
351
00:32:00,168 --> 00:32:06,674
since it melts slowly often, it soaks in lot...
a lot, doesn't it? (Zach) Yeah, it depends. It
352
00:32:06,674 --> 00:32:12,764
can be. It depends all on the antecedent soil
temperature. If you've kind of been warm and
353
00:32:12,764 --> 00:32:18,728
you get a big snowfall, um... that's great for
soil moisture because the soil's kind of melting
354
00:32:18,728 --> 00:32:22,357
a lot of that snowfall... (Tim) Right. (Zach)
...from, uh... the ground on top of whatever
355
00:32:22,357 --> 00:32:28,029
the sun's doing, too. And so that soaks in really
nice. I would say though, what we had last winter,
356
00:32:28,029 --> 00:32:34,035
without having a ton of measurements, uh... wasn't
an ideal situation because we got into, you know,
357
00:32:34,035 --> 00:32:39,707
our January polar vortex and really cold for
a couple weeks, and that did freeze the soils.
358
00:32:39,707 --> 00:32:44,170
And then we got some of those snowfall events, and
they just stuck around for a couple weeks because
359
00:32:44,170 --> 00:32:49,550
of the cold. And I would say in that situation,
really you lost most of your moisture kind of
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00:32:49,550 --> 00:32:54,889
slowly evaporating each day instead of making it
into the soil. But, you know, these are pretty
361
00:32:54,889 --> 00:33:00,186
complex things too that we'll be able to monitor
now having those temperature and moisture probes
362
00:33:00,186 --> 00:33:04,649
at different depths. So, it's going to give us a
lot more insight, um... during different parts of
363
00:33:04,649 --> 00:33:11,072
the season. (Tim) You know, I'll never forget.
We were having a dry summer, and I went up to a
364
00:33:11,072 --> 00:33:16,035
field day in northwest Missouri, and they'd been
having a dry summer, but I kept noticing that
365
00:33:16,035 --> 00:33:21,791
their crops looked a lot worse than ours. So I
got their field day book and realized they had had
366
00:33:21,791 --> 00:33:27,797
two years of drought. They had not replenished
their soil... subsoil moisture, so... so they were
367
00:33:27,797 --> 00:33:32,885
really hurting. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So... so that
can... we can kind of judge that too is how bad
368
00:33:32,885 --> 00:33:38,433
are we really... really, uh... deficit. (Zach)
Absolutely. So that's going to be very relevant
369
00:33:38,433 --> 00:33:45,523
for Missouri because another thing we then look
at in the spring is... okay, usually the top soil
370
00:33:45,523 --> 00:33:49,694
moisture is going to be there in March and April
as long as we're having a normal Missouri spring,
371
00:33:49,694 --> 00:33:53,948
but coming off of drought years, and in... in
this case, coming off of multiple drought years
372
00:33:53,948 --> 00:33:58,578
for a lot of our... our state, um... how's that
deep moisture? (Tim) Yes. (Zach) Uh... because
373
00:33:58,578 --> 00:34:03,458
that takes a longer time to recharge, and you
really need a wetter pattern at that point.
374
00:34:03,458 --> 00:34:08,838
That's important because you might not need it
immediately in April and May, but if you get dry,
375
00:34:08,838 --> 00:34:13,134
you're only going to go into drought quicker if
you don't have some of that deeper moisture. And
376
00:34:13,134 --> 00:34:18,723
so, um... that'll be another critical time of year
where we'll be using that soil moisture. And then,
377
00:34:18,723 --> 00:34:24,604
of course, once you get into the season, just
how is it responding to temperatures and,
378
00:34:24,604 --> 00:34:29,942
um... precipitation as well. (Tim) So is the
one at South Farm up that we can actually see
379
00:34:29,942 --> 00:34:33,362
it? (Zach) We have the sensors installed. The
data are not up right now. (Tim) Ok. (Zach) So
380
00:34:33,362 --> 00:34:38,993
currently, um... we're kind of calibrating the
sensors, also waiting on... on some of the soil
381
00:34:38,993 --> 00:34:42,997
to settle too. (Tim) Sure. (Zach) So, the way
these are, it's really an interesting process,
382
00:34:42,997 --> 00:34:48,669
but it takes a long time to install, but they'll
dig down, um... into the pit and very carefully
383
00:34:48,669 --> 00:34:54,967
remove the soil in the order of the profile. Um...
then once the... the probes are installed, they
384
00:34:54,967 --> 00:35:00,681
really backfill and tamp down that soil as in the
right order as much as they can. Um... but then
385
00:35:00,681 --> 00:35:05,394
we want to kind of wait and wait on some rainfall
events to... to see how the data is looking. By
386
00:35:05,394 --> 00:35:10,650
next spring, we should have the... the soil moisture
at these stations available. Um... but also as
387
00:35:10,650 --> 00:35:16,197
a part of the MoHIC project, uh... the climate
center is also working with MoRAP, the Missouri
388
00:35:16,197 --> 00:35:22,745
Resources Assessment Partnership on campus, and
we're looking to make, uh... high resolution soil
389
00:35:22,745 --> 00:35:28,334
moisture map. Even with, uh... soil moisture at
these Mesonet stations, uh... there's still lots
390
00:35:28,334 --> 00:35:32,672
of parts of the state that aren't going to have
the... these data available to them. How can we
391
00:35:32,672 --> 00:35:37,802
use what's available as far as the soil moisture
measurements, um... but then also look at some
392
00:35:37,802 --> 00:35:43,850
other data sets too? And so, uh... MoRAP has a
lot of experience with, uh... geospatial modeling,
393
00:35:43,850 --> 00:35:49,397
and so we're kind of looking at machine learning
to use mixture of climate data, so knowing our
394
00:35:49,397 --> 00:35:55,403
rainfall and temperatures, but also combining that
with the soil characteristics too, um... to try
395
00:35:55,403 --> 00:36:00,658
and model soil moisture. And so, um... the
end goal of the project is that, um... by the end
396
00:36:00,658 --> 00:36:07,123
of next summer, we'll have 250 meter resolution
maps that show a grid of the soil moisture and
397
00:36:07,123 --> 00:36:12,837
soil temperature across the state, and these would
update daily. And we're really excited for those
398
00:36:12,837 --> 00:36:18,009
too because it may not, you know, it's a model,
so it may not perfectly get at that soil moisture,
399
00:36:18,009 --> 00:36:22,346
um... but we are going to have some of the... the
radar precipitation, and hopefully it can kind of
400
00:36:22,346 --> 00:36:27,768
dive into the local variations of soil moisture
there. So, that's another output of the project
401
00:36:27,768 --> 00:36:34,734
that we're excited about. (Tim) That's great.
Yeah, we can better anticipate what kind of
402
00:36:34,734 --> 00:36:40,323
conditions that we're going to have now, don't...
don't we? (Zach) Yes. (Tim) With this. Um... back
403
00:36:40,323 --> 00:36:46,120
on your Mesonet, you know, I... I use it a lot,
and... and one thing I see is evapotranspiration.
404
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:51,125
Can you explain to our listeners what that is?
(Zach) Yes! Evapotranspiration is, um... the
405
00:36:51,125 --> 00:36:56,505
combined movement of water from the land surface
to the atmosphere through, uh... evaporation
406
00:36:56,505 --> 00:37:02,261
but also transpiration, which is plant water
movement. So where plants are taking up water,
407
00:37:02,261 --> 00:37:06,515
um... from under the soil and... and moving it
into the plant and out through their stomata.
408
00:37:06,515 --> 00:37:12,521
And so evapotranspiration is basically how much
water is moving from the ground to the atmosphere.
409
00:37:12,521 --> 00:37:19,528
The Mesonet, we calculate it hourly and come up
with a... a sum for the day. And so usually in a
410
00:37:19,528 --> 00:37:24,659
hot summer day like today when we're recording,
or a hot fall day, um... we might see up to two
411
00:37:24,659 --> 00:37:30,831
tenths of an inch of evapotranspiration, and that
basically means, uh... you've lost the equivalent
412
00:37:30,831 --> 00:37:36,254
of a 0.2 inch rainfall event from your soil in
water that day. (Tim) So that's more than an inch
413
00:37:36,254 --> 00:37:41,550
a week?! (Zach) Yes. And in fact, that's really
important during the summer. (Tim) Yes! (Zach) So,
414
00:37:41,550 --> 00:37:45,846
um... (Tim) Cuz I've seen .35s before in the
summer. (Zach) Yes. And, uh... the higher the
415
00:37:45,846 --> 00:37:49,767
temperatures, the... the sunnier the conditions,
that's when you're going to have the highest
416
00:37:49,767 --> 00:37:54,438
evapotranspiration. And we can have very high
rates during the summer, particularly during
417
00:37:54,438 --> 00:38:00,569
drought, but a lot of times, it's really useful
to have that evapotranspiration as a water balance
418
00:38:00,569 --> 00:38:07,159
model because, our rule of thumb just from taking
the monthly average rainfall is, on average,
419
00:38:07,159 --> 00:38:11,455
we get about 1 inch a week of precipitation
in the summer for rainfall anywhere across
420
00:38:11,455 --> 00:38:15,543
the state. (Tim) Which is a deficit! (Zach)
Yes! Exactly. And so if you're a farmer,
421
00:38:15,543 --> 00:38:20,923
you need to know that that one inch on average is,
you're losing water each week even if you get an
422
00:38:20,923 --> 00:38:25,845
inch of rainfall. That gives you a better picture
of where you're at from a water balance as far as
423
00:38:25,845 --> 00:38:32,184
dryness and wetness there. And so, that's why
we provide the evapotranspiration, um... data,
424
00:38:32,184 --> 00:38:37,690
that to... to do the calculation, we have, uh...
incoming solar radiation that we monitor with the
425
00:38:37,690 --> 00:38:43,070
pyrometer, um... but then we have winds, humidity
and temperature as well and... and are able to...
426
00:38:43,070 --> 00:38:47,533
to estimate it with those calculations. (Tim)
Yeah, I always look at those and get depressed
427
00:38:47,533 --> 00:38:53,164
sometimes. I think, eww, we are losing! But...
but, so we... that really tells us in the winter,
428
00:38:53,164 --> 00:38:57,626
that's when we're going to build our soil
moisture up. (Zach) Yes. And... and, um... yeah,
429
00:38:57,626 --> 00:39:01,297
because you definitely don't lose much moisture
at all, um... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...compared
430
00:39:01,297 --> 00:39:06,010
to the summer because you lose almost all of the
vegetative component except for maybe some... some
431
00:39:06,010 --> 00:39:11,057
tree species, um... and then evaporation is just
so much lower during the winter months. So it's
432
00:39:11,057 --> 00:39:15,936
kind of a bonus period where you can put a lot
of rainfall and not worry about it being quickly,
433
00:39:15,936 --> 00:39:19,940
um... removed and gone back to the atmosphere.
(Tim) Oh, wow. So I think this... this helps
434
00:39:19,940 --> 00:39:25,946
you really, really see where your... your
balance is. And I also noticed on the Mesonet,
435
00:39:25,946 --> 00:39:29,784
you do the feel like temperature. (Zach) Yes.
Yeah. (Tim) That made me feel really, really
436
00:39:29,784 --> 00:39:34,830
hot a few times. No wonder I feel so hot! (Zach)
Yes. And... and that's a combination of the... the
437
00:39:34,830 --> 00:39:40,169
humidity and temperature there, um... but it gives
us a better idea of... of what the temperatures
438
00:39:40,169 --> 00:39:44,965
actually are... are like outside. I think
the past two or three years here in Missouri,
439
00:39:44,965 --> 00:39:50,346
we've had a lot of heat waves that might not have
been as impressive on paper from temperatures
440
00:39:50,346 --> 00:39:56,185
where we might see 90s or upper 90s, but it was
the humidity that was extremely high and creating
441
00:39:56,185 --> 00:40:00,731
the more dangerous conditions. So, um... that's
why we... we include that as well. (Tim) Because
442
00:40:00,731 --> 00:40:04,652
our livestock producers, that's really
important. (Zach) Yes. Um... they don't
443
00:40:04,652 --> 00:40:07,446
want to just know temperature. (Tim) Not just for
us. (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) That's not for Tim. That's
444
00:40:07,446 --> 00:40:11,951
for the livestock. (Zach) Yep. Animals get... get
uncomfortable too, and so they're looking at that.
445
00:40:11,951 --> 00:40:16,997
A lot of factors, but the... the cattle definitely
want to cool down at night too, and if we have
446
00:40:16,997 --> 00:40:22,503
really high humidity in those muggy nights, that's
not helpful. Um... but they also watch for, you
447
00:40:22,503 --> 00:40:27,800
know, amount of sunlight, so how much the cattle
are outside and, uh... winds too. The winds can
448
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,972
help kind of... the cattle sweat and remove some
of that heat. (Tim) You know, we got to close up
449
00:40:32,972 --> 00:40:38,018
here in just a minute, but you... you mentioned
nighttime temperatures. Those are going up,
450
00:40:38,018 --> 00:40:42,815
aren't they? (Zach) Yes. Um... (Tim) Our daytime
really aren't. (Zach) Yeah, it's been interesting.
451
00:40:42,815 --> 00:40:48,028
And... and the... our minimum temperatures are
rising quite a bit. I get asked a lot, "What's
452
00:40:48,028 --> 00:40:52,992
Missouri's, uh... temperature trend?" And really
over the past 40 years, but over... over the whole
453
00:40:52,992 --> 00:40:57,705
record we are seeing rising temperatures, but
in Missouri, it doesn't tell the whole story.
454
00:40:57,705 --> 00:41:04,086
You really have to break it down by season and
then high and low temperatures. And basically,
455
00:41:04,086 --> 00:41:09,300
our coldest temperatures are getting warmer. Our
warmest temperatures are staying the same or...
456
00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:14,263
or getting cooler. And so that means, we're
seeing more warming during the winter months,
457
00:41:14,263 --> 00:41:18,350
um... but also more warming with those overnight
low temperatures. And so... (Tim) Being
458
00:41:18,350 --> 00:41:22,438
higher. (Zach) Being higher as well. So... (Tim)
In the summer? (Zach) In the summer. And so,
459
00:41:22,438 --> 00:41:28,819
in... in the summer, our high temperatures are
actually decreasing over the past 30 years where
460
00:41:28,819 --> 00:41:34,909
minimum temperatures are increasing, um... and...
and quite a bit more. So about two degrees, uh...
461
00:41:34,909 --> 00:41:40,414
per century over the past 30 years for the minimum
temperatures. And so, it kind of changes the flavor
462
00:41:40,414 --> 00:41:46,837
of summer heat though. Um... we're still getting
heat waves, but all of our all-time temperature
463
00:41:46,837 --> 00:41:53,052
records that we set during the 30s and 50s,
100 to 110 or... we're not seeing that as much,
464
00:41:53,052 --> 00:41:57,556
but instead, we're still getting these heat waves
with a lot of humidity, but then not cooling down
465
00:41:57,556 --> 00:42:01,644
at night. So you might have a night where the low
is 80. (Tim) Right! (Zach) And that can be just
466
00:42:01,644 --> 00:42:06,440
as bad for... for human and animal... (Tim) And
plants! (Zach) Yeah. Plants don't like that either
467
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:12,029
as well. So that's an important trend to know
because, uh... if we just say temperatures are
468
00:42:12,029 --> 00:42:16,033
warmer, that doesn't tell the whole story. It's...
it's these nighttime temperatures. (Zach) And
469
00:42:16,033 --> 00:42:20,246
that's the beautiful thing about your Mesonet is
that you can measure all of those. (Zach) Correct.
470
00:42:20,246 --> 00:42:25,000
Yes. (Tim) And it's going to be different in
the Bootheel versus northwest Missouri. They're
471
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:30,506
different climates. (Zach) Absolutely. Um... and
we do see that. And we have really what we call
472
00:42:30,506 --> 00:42:35,219
six climate divisions across Missouri, ranging
from the Bootheel to the Northwest Prairie, as we
473
00:42:35,219 --> 00:42:40,432
call it. But um... very diverse state climatically
but also geographically too. (Tim) And probably
474
00:42:40,432 --> 00:42:45,604
the Ozarks are a whole animal themselves. (Zach)
Yes. Yep. And... and they kind of have their own
475
00:42:45,604 --> 00:42:49,608
weird temperature records too because of
the topography as well. So you see some,
476
00:42:49,608 --> 00:42:53,612
some funny things. (Tim) Sometimes they're cold!
(Zach) Yes. Exactly. (Tim) Yeah. All right,
477
00:42:53,612 --> 00:42:57,700
Zach. We can talk about the weather all the
time. This is... this is so much fun. But,
478
00:42:57,700 --> 00:43:02,079
uh... thanks so much for coming out, and this
is it for Tim's Take. (Zach) Thanks, Tim.
479
00:43:02,079 --> 00:43:17,761
[♫]
00:00:00,166 --> 00:00:07,757
[♫]
2
00:00:07,757 --> 00:00:13,179
(Tim Reinbott) Well, welcome today to Tim's
Take, and we are with Dr. Zack Leasor,
3
00:00:13,179 --> 00:00:17,559
our State Extension Climatologist. (Zach Leasor)
Yes, thank you for having me, Tim. (Tim) You know,
4
00:00:17,559 --> 00:00:22,439
Zach, the climatologist, you either get credit or
get blamed for everything. (Zach) Yes, absolutely.
5
00:00:22,439 --> 00:00:27,068
And, uh... sometimes it feels like it can be both
at the same time depending on what the weather's
6
00:00:27,068 --> 00:00:33,867
doing in Missouri, too. (Tim) And we had that this
past year. We had very wet conditions. Actually,
7
00:00:33,867 --> 00:00:38,830
we thought we were going to have a really great
growing season, then it turns out dry. (Zach) Yes.
8
00:00:38,830 --> 00:00:44,210
And that kind of happened last year, too. (Tim)
It did, didn't it? And... and... and what causes
9
00:00:44,210 --> 00:00:50,300
that? (Zach) Yeah. So, you know, this year we
really flipped the switch. It was wet in... in
10
00:00:50,300 --> 00:00:55,013
April, May, and June. And in fact, um... some
areas in southeast and southern Missouri were
11
00:00:55,013 --> 00:01:01,311
too wet. Uh, April was the fourth wettest April on
record for the state. Um, with records going back
12
00:01:01,311 --> 00:01:06,775
to 1895. And a lot of that was from southeast
and... and southern Missouri as well. So,
13
00:01:06,775 --> 00:01:12,530
um... that started out the season, but once we
got to July, um... really midway through July,
14
00:01:12,530 --> 00:01:17,952
I-70 and south in the state, the... the rain
really shut off, and we didn't see significant
15
00:01:17,952 --> 00:01:24,375
precipitation until, uh... this last week here in
mid-September. So, um... that's been tricky to...
16
00:01:24,375 --> 00:01:29,714
to watch here. And it's really characteristic,
though, of Missouri's climate. Being in the...
17
00:01:29,714 --> 00:01:35,720
the center of the US, uh... we have a continental
climate, which means we get all four seasons, but
18
00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:42,060
it also means we can get, uh... all of these air
masses moving from around us. And so, it's really
19
00:01:42,060 --> 00:01:47,315
easy to switch from, uh... maybe a wet pattern
to a dry pattern. In this part of the country, in
20
00:01:47,315 --> 00:01:52,987
the... the central of the US, uh... that's really
a notable thing. And so the past two years, we've
21
00:01:52,987 --> 00:01:58,785
seen that switch from wet to dry so quickly that
we actually call that a... a flash drought. And
22
00:01:58,785 --> 00:02:04,999
so that's different from a regular drought where
we think about monthly or seasonal differences
23
00:02:04,999 --> 00:02:09,879
and kind of a long-term drought event. These
flash droughts, once the rain stops and if it's
24
00:02:09,879 --> 00:02:15,635
really hot like in July or August, um... you see
conditions evolve in just a few weeks as opposed
25
00:02:15,635 --> 00:02:20,431
to throughout the season. And so that's been two
consecutive years with the flash drought. (Tim) Is
26
00:02:20,431 --> 00:02:25,979
that because the jet stream has went back north?
(Zach) Yeah. So, we're really prone this time of
27
00:02:25,979 --> 00:02:32,610
year, um... for the jet stream to retreat far to
the north, and then that leaves us just looking at
28
00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:38,449
scattered precipitation chances. So, once that
jet stream moves to the north, we don't get,
29
00:02:38,449 --> 00:02:43,246
um... these big low-pressure systems with a front
moving through where the whole state's going to
30
00:02:43,246 --> 00:02:48,626
get needed rainfall. Instead, like we saw this
summer, even when we got some rain in July and
31
00:02:48,626 --> 00:02:53,798
August, it was these popup thunderstorms, and it
was tough to really get a... a good rainfall from
32
00:02:53,798 --> 00:02:58,761
those. And so, that's been, uh... tricky and...
and is something we're still seeing here as we're
33
00:02:58,761 --> 00:03:05,101
warm going into October is... is no sign of
that jet stream currently. (Tim) Wow. And,
34
00:03:05,101 --> 00:03:10,773
um... lot... a lot of times we're so dry that when
we do start getting a big front coming through,
35
00:03:10,773 --> 00:03:15,570
it just all evaporates before it gets
to a dry area. (Zach) Yes. And that's
36
00:03:15,570 --> 00:03:22,118
been something that always interests me is, uh...
researching land atmosphere interactions. And so,
37
00:03:22,118 --> 00:03:28,666
um... learning how a dry ground, dry vegetation,
um... can actually impact how much moisture is
38
00:03:28,666 --> 00:03:34,464
in the lower atmosphere. And so, you're right. As
these systems, um... move across, we do know that
39
00:03:34,464 --> 00:03:40,053
just those boundary conditions can also influence
and, uh... maybe weaken some of the amount of
40
00:03:40,053 --> 00:03:45,391
moisture there too. So, uh... kind of fascinating
but scary also because when you're in drought,
41
00:03:45,391 --> 00:03:50,146
it can kind of lead to more drought. (Tim) Right!
Because it seemed like it takes a really big
42
00:03:50,146 --> 00:03:56,027
system to... to end the drought and start going
back the other way. (Zach) Yes. And... and that's
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00:03:56,027 --> 00:04:02,116
what we saw last year. It was around Halloween
into the first week of November, um... we just
44
00:04:02,116 --> 00:04:07,163
got several rounds of significant rainfall, and
it kind of helped us out. And so, that'll be
45
00:04:07,163 --> 00:04:12,210
the big question at this point because now we've
had this drought over the past couple of months,
46
00:04:12,210 --> 00:04:18,466
and we now see these precipitation deficits. Um...
the rain was helpful last week in mid-September,
47
00:04:18,466 --> 00:04:22,679
but we need to see kind of a wetter pattern,
like you mentioned, to fully recover and...
48
00:04:22,679 --> 00:04:29,018
and end this drought. (Tim) So, do some of our
big droughts start actually in the fall, late
49
00:04:29,018 --> 00:04:35,233
summer of the previous year and fall? (Zach) Yes.
Um... so we don't always see a... a full growing
50
00:04:35,233 --> 00:04:40,280
season drought. And even just looking at the
past four years, we've had a drought every year,
51
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but '22, '24, and now '25 were just kind of late
season events. And so, that's been interesting to
52
00:04:47,078 --> 00:04:52,292
me learning about Missouri's kind of drought
characteristics because, uh... it has a lot
53
00:04:52,292 --> 00:04:58,214
of impacts on what... what the ag impacts are as
well. Because, if we saw this full growing season
54
00:04:58,214 --> 00:05:02,927
drought, we might have, uh... issues everywhere,
but when it's certain times of the year, it really
55
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changes that too. (Tim) So the winter time, late
fall/winter can change that? Can get us back to
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00:05:08,433 --> 00:05:13,980
more of a normal pattern again? (Zach) Yeah.
So, um... usually during the... the winter,
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uh... on average, that's a time of year when we
do see some soil moisture recharge. And so, that's
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really important to... to have that precip as we
go into the winter and even during those colder
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00:05:24,532 --> 00:05:29,245
months, so that once we get into the spring next
year, we're not, uh... starting with reduced soil
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moisture there. (Tim) So, speaking of this fall
and winter, what are you thinking? (Zach) Yeah.
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So, you know, as we speak today, looking at the
first week of October, unfortunately, it looks
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like we've seen warm and dry. And so, um... we are
still dealing with drought here, and... and we'll
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be looking for rainfall. Unfortunately, the...
the kind of official outlook for October from
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00:05:52,226 --> 00:05:58,441
the Climate Prediction Center in NOAA is leaning
on the... the dry side. So, um, they're... they're
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00:05:58,441 --> 00:06:03,738
calling for slightly, uh... drier than average,
or... or the probability of slightly drier than
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00:06:03,738 --> 00:06:09,160
average conditions. And so, one takeaway I have
from their forecast is, though it isn't very
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00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:14,290
strong on the probabilities for... for dryness,
but there's not much of an indication of a wet
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00:06:14,290 --> 00:06:21,089
October in their forecast. And so, to me that's...
that says the drought will kind of persist or even
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00:06:21,089 --> 00:06:26,761
get worse if we do have a dry October there.
So that's a little concerning. And then also to
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00:06:26,761 --> 00:06:32,266
kind of go along with that dry forecast, they're
forecasting a higher probability of above average
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00:06:32,266 --> 00:06:39,065
temperatures too. And so, kind of a what we'd call
a persistence forecast. So we had a warm and dry
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September and... and August, so we... we would
expect that into October, too. So, um... maybe a
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00:06:45,571 --> 00:06:52,286
late, uh... frost as a result of that because once
we get into that third and last week of October,
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that's when on average we see that first frost
unless you're, um... in St. Louis or the Bootheel
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00:06:57,708 --> 00:07:03,548
where it's a little bit later into November, um...
and then the drought there. And then looking into
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the long-term though, there might be a little bit
more optimism. Um... one thing we're looking for
77
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is the chance of a La Nina. And so, last year
was a La Nina winter. And when we look back
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00:07:16,686 --> 00:07:22,066
for the state, it was characterized by a really
active start to the winter. November and December
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00:07:22,066 --> 00:07:28,030
we had a lot of rainfall, and then we got into
this cold and snowy pattern as well. And that's,
80
00:07:28,030 --> 00:07:33,411
um... really what we typically see in this
part of the country for a La Nina event,
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00:07:33,411 --> 00:07:39,709
and so, we're watching that now. Um... the kind of
factor that's making it a little bit difficult is,
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00:07:39,709 --> 00:07:45,548
uh... La Nina is where we monitor the Pacific
Ocean sea surface temperatures. And uh... when
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00:07:45,548 --> 00:07:50,303
they're cooler than average, that's these La
Nina events. And right now, the temperatures are
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actually closer to normal. Uh... we jokingly call
it a La Nada because we haven't gotten to that La
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00:07:56,434 --> 00:08:01,314
Nina yet, but the forecast is for over the next
couple of months, the temperatures to cool enough
86
00:08:01,314 --> 00:08:07,904
where we're officially in a La Nina, but it's
expected to be a really weak La Nina. Um... just
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00:08:07,904 --> 00:08:14,368
barely crossing that threshold, and then maybe not
last that long. And so, as a seasonal forecaster,
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00:08:14,368 --> 00:08:19,165
that's usually the first thing we look at is
El Nino or La Nina. That explains a lot of
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00:08:19,165 --> 00:08:26,005
the variance for a season, um... but we don't have
that tool as much if it's a weak or short-lived La
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00:08:26,005 --> 00:08:31,802
Nina. So, I'd be optimistic for a La Nina winter
like last year where we did see drought recovery,
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00:08:31,802 --> 00:08:37,642
um... but as of right now, that maybe cold and
snowy, or cold and wet, forecast could be...
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00:08:37,642 --> 00:08:45,316
have a lot of uncertainty to behind it too. (Tim)
So, if we don't... so, if we have a weak La Nina,
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00:08:45,316 --> 00:08:51,072
what about then this spring and next summer?
Do we have any idea on that? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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um... these models that try and forecast the
really slow changes of ocean temperatures, um...
95
00:08:57,161 --> 00:09:04,126
they are predicting us to eventually warm into
an El Nino next year. But I will note that the
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00:09:04,126 --> 00:09:10,216
models have really struggled this past year. Um...
I think they've been slow to the... the changes.
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00:09:10,216 --> 00:09:15,346
They've been predicting this La Nina event to
happen since, uh... this summer. Um, but it
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00:09:15,346 --> 00:09:20,768
kind of keeps getting pushed back. And so, um...
while next year could be an El Nino of a year, and
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00:09:20,768 --> 00:09:25,106
that's kind of what they're... they're showing,
um... still a lot of uncertainty there. (Tim) So
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00:09:25,106 --> 00:09:31,070
if we're in between El Nino and La Nina, what's
usually happens? What's... what's a typical summer
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00:09:31,070 --> 00:09:37,326
like then? (Zach) Yeah. So that's when we don't
have as much kind of good, what we call composites
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00:09:37,326 --> 00:09:43,874
or analog years. So when we don't have the El
Nino or La Nina that we see these characteristics,
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00:09:43,874 --> 00:09:49,171
um... there's not as much, uh... of a consensus
on what the weather will be. And so, uh... you see
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a lot of variability, and it's difficult to kind
of make a... make a forecast when you don't have,
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00:09:54,594 --> 00:10:00,266
uh... this signal here. So, um... and this year,
you know, it... it... it's... it's hard to tell
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00:10:00,266 --> 00:10:06,355
if... if maybe, um... as these surface, uh... or
as these sea surface temperatures started to cool,
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00:10:06,355 --> 00:10:14,030
is that why we got dry because usually a La Nina,
um... can mean a drier fall. Uh... but it's still
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00:10:14,030 --> 00:10:18,826
such a... a weak La Nina, it's hard to really
draw that relationship. (Tim) So, what were we
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00:10:18,826 --> 00:10:24,290
in last spring and the summer then? Were we just
in between or were we at El Nino? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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00:10:24,290 --> 00:10:30,296
actually we came out of La Nina last year. Um...
warmed into this La Nada. We were wondering if
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00:10:30,296 --> 00:10:35,551
we would go into an El Nino, and then now have
kind of dipped back into La Nina and will be over
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00:10:35,551 --> 00:10:40,681
the next couple of months. So, um... and that
happens too. You don't always flip from El Nino
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00:10:40,681 --> 00:10:45,561
to La Nina. Sometimes, uh... like... like this
year, we can go to normal and then back to La
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00:10:45,561 --> 00:10:52,193
Nina. So that's been kind of an interesting thing
to see this year. (Tim) You know, in my career,
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00:10:52,193 --> 00:11:00,451
as far as agricultural career for 40... almost 50
years I guess now, uh... the two biggest droughts
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00:11:00,451 --> 00:11:09,085
(1980 and 2012), to me all started that fall
because both times we had these beautiful falls
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00:11:09,085 --> 00:11:15,966
of getting everything harvested, and then we
followed up with a really bad summer. And so,
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00:11:15,966 --> 00:11:23,015
that was probably a La Nina then going to El
Nino, wasn't it? (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) It was...
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00:11:23,015 --> 00:11:29,021
that's... that's when that happens. (Zach) Yeah. And
that would explain, especially 2012 too, where,
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00:11:29,021 --> 00:11:33,818
um... we also went from that a wet year in
2011, which probably led to a good harvest,
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00:11:33,818 --> 00:11:39,240
but then dried out and got into really one of our
more extreme, not just drought, but warmest year
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00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:45,162
on record too. So that was a very strong El Nino
event too. And so, and... and that observation is
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00:11:45,162 --> 00:11:51,168
really why we watch these as climatologists
is because the ocean temperatures evolve so
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00:11:51,168 --> 00:11:56,590
slowly that they really do have an impact on
these longer term trends. So an El Nino is not
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00:11:56,590 --> 00:12:01,971
going to help you forecast like a thunderstorm
this week or the 7-day forecast, but these,
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00:12:01,971 --> 00:12:06,267
you know, three to six month kind of cooling or
warming trends, you can really try and follow
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00:12:06,267 --> 00:12:11,897
that way. (Tim) And then blocking highs can have a
lot to do with it too, can't it? (Zach) Yeah. So,
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00:12:11,897 --> 00:12:15,985
a lot of times when we get in a heat wave
or just kind of a drought like this fall,
129
00:12:15,985 --> 00:12:21,407
you hear about these blocking highs or a heat
dome, just an area of high pressure that's really
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00:12:21,407 --> 00:12:28,706
suppressing any kind of convection or moisture.
Um... those can be related to El Nino and La Nina,
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00:12:28,706 --> 00:12:33,502
um... when... when you get a blocking high for a
few weeks or a few months. And that's because,
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00:12:33,502 --> 00:12:39,550
um... it's not just those ocean temperatures that
are directly impacting our temperatures in precip,
133
00:12:39,550 --> 00:12:43,262
um... but they're impacting the just
general atmospheric circulation,
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00:12:43,262 --> 00:12:49,018
so the global jet stream as well. Um... and so
you see these El Nino/La Nina impacts everywhere
135
00:12:49,018 --> 00:12:55,399
here as well. (Tim) So what in the world changes
the... the temperature of the ocean off the coast
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00:12:55,399 --> 00:13:00,863
of South America? What... what... what changes
that? (Zach) Yeah. So it's, uh... it's really
137
00:13:00,863 --> 00:13:06,994
kind of a... an interesting phenomenon, and it's
a cycle and a feedback between the atmosphere and
138
00:13:06,994 --> 00:13:14,460
ocean as well. And so, um... eventually what you
get is a low pressure that... that sets up kind of
139
00:13:14,460 --> 00:13:20,216
stationary off the coast of South America. And so,
that low pressure is generally kind of rising air
140
00:13:20,216 --> 00:13:26,347
there at the surface, and that starts bringing up
cooler water from below the surface there as well.
141
00:13:26,347 --> 00:13:32,186
And then your low pressure, um... also sets up
with a... kind of a... a high pressure farther
142
00:13:32,186 --> 00:13:38,526
west and you get this, uh... flow, westerly
flow where now you move that cool water,
143
00:13:38,526 --> 00:13:44,198
um... to the... the, uh... area of higher pressure
too there as well. And so, um... this kind of goes
144
00:13:44,198 --> 00:13:49,245
back and forth, this process where you'll develop
the... the atmospheric pressure that pulls the
145
00:13:49,245 --> 00:13:53,874
water and then... and then moves it across.
And so basically, you've got this dipole in
146
00:13:53,874 --> 00:13:59,547
the eastern and western Pacific of cooler and...
and warmer, uh... sea surface temperatures. And
147
00:13:59,547 --> 00:14:05,803
so when we measure El Nino or La Nina, there's
actually, uh... several different boxes, but
148
00:14:05,803 --> 00:14:11,809
the most commonly used is called the... the 3.4,
and it's kind of just generally across the... the
149
00:14:11,809 --> 00:14:17,147
whole Pacific, but from, uh... five degrees south
to 5 degrees north. So that's where you'll really
150
00:14:17,147 --> 00:14:21,986
see those changes in the water temperature.
(Tim) And because they're southwest of us,
151
00:14:21,986 --> 00:14:26,907
that's where we're... it effects us, isn't it?
I suppose? (Zach) Yeah. So, um... but we really
152
00:14:26,907 --> 00:14:31,579
see the... the global effects because there
at the equator, um... you know, this kind of
153
00:14:31,579 --> 00:14:37,084
starts where we see our... our global circulation
patterns where ultimately the jet stream and all
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00:14:37,084 --> 00:14:41,964
these highs and low pressure, they're... they're
really designed to move heat from the equator to
155
00:14:41,964 --> 00:14:46,427
the poles. And so, when you change what's going
on at the equator, it really changed kind of
156
00:14:46,427 --> 00:14:51,557
the patterns as well. And so, that's why it's so
important in that area in the Pacific. (Tim) They
157
00:14:51,557 --> 00:14:58,272
have documented some ice that we're losing
in Antarctica. Can that affect everything,
158
00:14:58,272 --> 00:15:04,528
these... these... these patterns too? (Zach) Yeah. So
that's where it gets tricky. Um... so we've seen,
159
00:15:04,528 --> 00:15:09,325
uh... quite a bit of sea ice loss in both
poles, including the Antarctic and Arctic,
160
00:15:09,325 --> 00:15:14,747
and that can impact, um... global sea surface
temperatures as well if there's enough, um... kind
161
00:15:14,747 --> 00:15:20,920
of ice there. So, as a climatologist, we're kind
of constantly trying to look at these sea surface
162
00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:26,759
temperatures relative to normal. And so, you know,
there's a lot of uncertainty with the ice because
163
00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:32,348
it doesn't just go into the ocean and immediately
cool the water. It can also impact sea surface
164
00:15:32,348 --> 00:15:38,270
currents which impact how different temperature
of water kind of piles up in the oceans there. So,
165
00:15:38,270 --> 00:15:42,775
we're measuring the sea surface temperature in
this box, but if it is changing due to other
166
00:15:42,775 --> 00:15:48,364
factors, we might be a little bit off on what our
La Nina or El Nino is. (Tim) Sure. Because the ice
167
00:15:48,364 --> 00:15:53,494
reflects sun, doesn't it? (Zach) Yes. Yeah. (Tim)
So that can change the amount of heat absorbed
168
00:15:53,494 --> 00:15:58,666
and all that kind of... thing. (Zach) Yes. And so,
you could have cooling from the ice, but also then
169
00:15:58,666 --> 00:16:04,546
you're... you're removing your protection there
as well. So then, uh... now the water's absorbing,
170
00:16:04,546 --> 00:16:08,759
uh... more of that sunlight too. So, uh... a
lot of things that can change. (Tim) It looks
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00:16:08,759 --> 00:16:15,265
like for 2025/2026 winter, we're setting up
somewhat like last year, but maybe not quite as
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00:16:15,265 --> 00:16:20,938
strong. (Zach) Correct. Yes. And so, um... for me,
I'm... I'm... I'm looking for kind of an active
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pattern in the winter, um... and could... could
be snowy, especially once we get into January and
174
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:31,156
February when we see most of our snow and maybe
cooler temperatures there as well. (Tim) But a
175
00:16:31,156 --> 00:16:35,494
beautiful harvest. (Zach) A beautiful harvest.
Yeah. So, I mean, some are enjoying this dry
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pattern in early October if... if you do need to
get out there. (Tim) You know, I've... last couple
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of falls, I've planted wheat, and I always keep
remembering, "If you plant wheat in the dust, your
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00:16:45,796 --> 00:16:49,466
bins were bust." And we've had some really good
wheat yields in the... in the... in the spring.
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So... (Zach) Yes. And I think hopefully this year
the... the mid-September rain will help for some
180
00:16:55,014 --> 00:16:59,727
fall planting, too. Um... if we hadn't got that,
things might be a little bit more dire with the...
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00:16:59,727 --> 00:17:04,189
the drought situation. (Tim) All right. Well...
well, thanks. So... so... so we do have something
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00:17:04,189 --> 00:17:08,944
to look forward to that will... could break this
pattern and... and by the next spring and summer,
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00:17:08,944 --> 00:17:14,283
we could be in totally different... back into a
more of a normal rainfall pattern. (Zach) Yes.
184
00:17:14,283 --> 00:17:19,663
There is reason for... for optimism. Um...
and I'll note too, I've... we've gone now four
185
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consecutive growing seasons with drought, and I've
gotten the question, how rare is that in Missouri?
186
00:17:25,252 --> 00:17:30,132
And... and these were... have been severe
droughts as well going up to D2 or D3 on the
187
00:17:30,132 --> 00:17:36,138
US drought monitor. And so looking back at... at
our climate, we do see these long stretches, um...
188
00:17:36,138 --> 00:17:42,519
but it is getting pretty rare. So, um... some of
our... our longest droughts ever, uh... would be,
189
00:17:42,519 --> 00:17:48,525
uh... from 1931 to '36. We had five consecutive
growing seasons in the Dust Bowl. Maybe some
190
00:17:48,525 --> 00:17:52,988
relief in the winter, but if you look at just
April to November, they just kept getting hit with
191
00:17:52,988 --> 00:17:59,578
drought. Um... and then also the early 50s. So,
1950 through '54, five consecutive drought years
192
00:17:59,578 --> 00:18:04,833
there. So, we're not as extreme each of the past
few years as some of those in the 30s and 50s,
193
00:18:04,833 --> 00:18:10,214
but if we saw another drought year, um... that's
one of the longest stretches on our... our climate
194
00:18:10,214 --> 00:18:16,303
record. So it has been kind of an unusual drought
stretch there. (Tim) Yeah. I've always heard my
195
00:18:16,303 --> 00:18:22,434
dad and those groups talking about the 30s and
the 50s being pretty rough years. (Zach) Yeah,
196
00:18:22,434 --> 00:18:27,231
the 50s don't get as much attention because
I think that... that we learned so much from
197
00:18:27,231 --> 00:18:32,277
the Dust Bowl that the impacts were a little bit
better mitigated, but still just from a weather
198
00:18:32,277 --> 00:18:37,574
perspective, it was just as hot and dry then
as... as far as extremes. (Tim) I heard some,
199
00:18:37,574 --> 00:18:41,954
uh... farmers talking about how much more
drought tolerant corn is now than it used
200
00:18:41,954 --> 00:18:46,667
to be. (Zach) Yes! (Tim) And that's mitigated some
of these issues. (Zach) And I've... I've seen that
201
00:18:46,667 --> 00:18:52,214
too. I don't have a lot of expertise with the...
the yields, but when I look at the climate data
202
00:18:52,214 --> 00:18:57,094
and then corn yields, for example, in Missouri
over the past 30 years, you see this increasing
203
00:18:57,094 --> 00:19:02,599
yield, and it's sometimes hard as a climatologist
to look at that year and see maybe a drought or no
204
00:19:02,599 --> 00:19:07,479
drought and the impact it has on the corn because,
uh... they've definitely become more resilient,
205
00:19:07,479 --> 00:19:11,650
and you still get high yields when the weather's
not perfect. (Tim) You know, I was looking at the
206
00:19:11,650 --> 00:19:18,031
Sanborn Field data and, um... I was trying
to figure out when we went with hybrid corn,
207
00:19:18,031 --> 00:19:23,245
did that make a difference on the... on the...
on the resiliency, you know... you know, to... to
208
00:19:23,245 --> 00:19:28,041
the... to the drought and such. But I also saw in
that period you're talking about in the early 30s,
209
00:19:28,041 --> 00:19:33,005
some zero corn yields. (Zach) Wow. And I
think today you... you wouldn't see those
210
00:19:33,005 --> 00:19:35,799
zeros. (Tim) No. No, you wouldn't. (Zach)
You'd at least grow something and... and
211
00:19:35,799 --> 00:19:38,510
manage. (Tim) Right. Right. (Zach) So that's
fascinating to... (Tim) Yeah. Even comparing,
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we mentioned 1980 earlier and 2012, yet it was...
'12 was just as bad as '80. (Zach) Sure. (Tim) But
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we had a lot more corn yield. (Zach) Yes. (Tim)
And soybean yield. So... so we are... our breeders
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are helping us out a lot on that. (Zach) Yeah,
and it's exciting for... for me too because all
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I do as a climatologist is... is tell us how dry
it is, but it's good that there's hope. You know,
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others are finding ways to address this situation
where we're going to see drought in Missouri,
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what practices or... or what breeding techniques can
make things more resilient. (Tim) Yeah, I... I
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know we... we... we... we take a lot of soil data
in... in the summer with and without cover crops
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and we're seeing that we have more soil moisture
in the middle of the summer with a cover crop
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than we do without. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) Little
things like that that we can do. (Zach) Yeah,
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and... and I definitely, coming from a non-ag
background but talking to farmers about drought,
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hear a lot about that. They're thinking
about solutions like cover crops or what
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different forages can they plant that might be
a little bit more resilient to drought. And so,
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um... that's really interesting to... to learn
about as well. (Tim) All right. All right. Well,
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before we close on this, anything else you want
to say about our forecast over the next six
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months or so? (Zach) Yeah. Well, whenever kind of
forecasting drought, I hope I'm wrong, and... and
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we see a lot of rainfall here and... and a quicker
recovery than expected. (Tim) Well, let's wait
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till harvest gets done first. (Zach) Yes! That's
a good compromise. (Tim) That's right. All right.
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Well, hi, folks! Welcome back to Tim's Take,
and we're continuing our discussion with Dr.
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Zach Leasor, our State Extension Climatologist.
But now we're going to talk about the Mesonet and
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some neat things that you're going to be starting
here real soon. (Zach Leasor) I definitely wanted
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to talk about an exciting project that we're
working on with the Missouri Department of Natural
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Resources. It's called the Missouri Hydrology
Information Center, or MoHIC. There's a lot of
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different... (Tim) MoHIC?! (Zach) MoHIC. That's
correct. (Tim) Missouri hick. (Zach) Yes. But,
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uh... no, MoHIC is a... is a really exciting
project. It in... it involves more than just,
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uh... the Mesonet and the Missouri Climate Center,
but our part is really exciting because we're
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working on soil moisture monitoring and expanding
that across the state. And so, this is something
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that's really important here in Missouri, but
honestly, all across the plains and the Midwest,
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these states are taking initiatives like Missouri,
um... to invest in more soil moisture data, to,
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um... learn more about what happens
after it rains, uh... whether that...
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that rainfall is getting into the soil and...
and monitor droughts and floods as well. So,
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uh... lots of exciting things with soil moisture
we're working on right now. (Tim) Because on... on
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the, uh... on the Mesonet, describe that real
quick. (Zach) Yeah, so the Missouri Mesonet,
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um... has been in existence since the mid-90s.
Um... but it is a network of 47 automated weather
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stations across the... the state of Missouri.
So, these automated weather stations mean that,
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um... they provide lots of different weather
data, not just rainfall but temperature, humidity,
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um... winds, even some soil temperature data
and other variables, but every five minutes.
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And then these data are available, uh...
free online at the Mesonet as well. And so,
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um... so these stations have... have been in
existence, and they're good for real-time,
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you know, decision making. If you need to see if
it rained last night or check the winds before you
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go out, that data is right there. Certainly helps
to monitor severe storm events. But I think the
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real value, um... has been now that we have the
climatology with the Mesonet too. So, uh... the
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Mesonet has been in existence long before I got
here, and... and the previous state climatologist
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Pat Guinan and, uh... John Travlos, who still
manages the Mesonet, um... they've worked a
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long time and some of these stations now have 30
years of data! And that's a local climatology.
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It's measured right where you're working or... or
studying, and... and that's important because we
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know weather can really vary over short...
short spaces. And so, at those locations,
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we've got the local average annual rainfall,
how much we expect each year, but also based
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on temperatures, we know the probability of frost
dates and planting dates as well. So, you start to
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build all of this decision-making information once
you've invested in... in collecting that data for a
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really long time. (Tim) Because one time we were
talking about how you start talking about drought,
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that that's changed because we are... are
you talking about compared to 1934? Well,
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it's pretty wet this year, you know, because we
had those severe droughts. So, we have to compare
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it to something, and now you got the data that you
can compare it to. (Zach) Correct. And it's recent
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data, too, that we're always adding to. And it's
so important for things like drought. One of the
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things I work on as a climatologist is how do we
define drought? And we know drought is, uh... less
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than normal precipitation, but we need to know
the normal there too. And so that's one reason to
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have a climatology because we can look at... at,
for example, Sanborn Field, the two driest years,
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2012, which everyone expects, but kind of
surprisingly, 2023... (Tim) Yes! (Zach) ...at
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Sanborn was drier! And... and that kind of context
is... is really important. Now, it does get
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tricky, though, and... and that we kind of look
at the... the past 30 years as... as a normal,
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or once we feel confident in a kind of statistical
baseline to compare against, but sometimes that
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normal is changing too, which makes, uh...
drought assessment really tricky here. So,
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um... long-term data though, really helped to...
to tell the story with drought. (Tim) You know,
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sometimes even if you go... well, we're talking
about the just... just a growing season, but I
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think in 2012, it was terribly dry and the very
last couple days of August, we got a hurricane
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remnants and we got a big inch and 8/10ths rain.
Well, that kind of changes your... your monthly
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totals a little bit. It skews them just a little
bit. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So, you... you almost need
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to almost look at by day or week or something.
(Zach) Yeah! No, you're absolutely right. And the
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Mesonet gives us kind of more... I've mentioned,
localized information, but often times better,
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uh... resolution information for getting rainfall
and other things. And so, a lot of times most of
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our rainfall and... and snowfall data when you
see it on the news, for example, is coming from a
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rain gauge observer. Maybe it's a National Weather
Service or a volunteer observer, um... but these
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are usually going to be once a day, just rainfall
totals, or they will report snowfall too. That's
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a lot different than what the Mesonet can show.
We can show five minute rainfall data and look at
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things like the intensity of the rainfall, um...
and then look at the month as a total for example.
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It's... did this rain come an inch a week? Kind
of how we would want it, or did it stack up as
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well? Those are all reasons you want to keep a...
as high quality of a record of the data as you
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can. (Tim) I know I look at yours all the time
because I look at about four of them in this area
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just to try to see how, you know, how scattered
is... is the rain and... and such. And sometimes
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when I... a big front's coming, I'll look at some
of the ones that's... that's already passed. Like
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what do they get at Linneus? You know, for
example. (Zach) Absolutely. (Tim) Because
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it's coming this way. So I'll look, or... or
at Marshall or someplace and, oh! They only
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got a half inch. That means I'm not going to...
this... this is moving so fast. I'm not going to
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get much. (Zach) Yeah, and that real time's great
for that. And you can also see if a front's coming
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through, how cold is it getting behind there? And
for severe weather, unfortunately, we often pick
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up a lot of wind gusts that... that go into, you
know, a severe storm local report if we get a 50
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or 60 mph gust, too. So, really capture quite a
bit of information. (Tim) Well, we've used your
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data for... for insurance claims. (Zach) Yes.
(Tim) To say, "It did get to 60 miles an hour.
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Here it is." (Zach) Yes! (Tim) So that, that
helps, too. (Zach) That's what they're designed
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to... to measure, but um... they do unfortunately
get impacted by severe weather. And over the past,
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we've also seen hail, you know, hit the weather
stations and cause repairs, and even tornadoes as
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well. (Tim) So, you're going to be monitoring soil
moisture then? (Zach) Yeah, so that's kind of the
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next variable. So in the past, the Mesonets, at
a few stations, set up some projects to measure
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soil moisture, but only at some shallow depths
and for a few locations. With this MoHIC project,
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so the Mesonet and... and John and his team
are looking at installing soil moisture sensors
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at about half of the stations across the state.
Really, a lot of us have been making an evaluation
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of which stations. Some of the locations because
of the topography in the site or maybe the soil's
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been disturbed, it's just not a good site for
soil moisture monitoring. And then in some
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locations like Boone County, we might have some
redundancies, so pick it just a couple spots. Um,
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but it should be about half. And in fact, that's
already started. So, um... DNR is really leading
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the charge on digging and installing the...
the sensors. And so, the first installation was
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this fall at South Farm. And, uh, these sensors
are, uh... 15-inch soil moisture probes. And so,
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you would see two metal probes, and they go, uh...
horizontally into the side of a... a soil profile.
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And so, these are being buried at 2, 4, and 8 inch
depths, which uh... are really important near
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the... the surface for... (Tim) Right. Right.
(Zach) ...soil temperatures and... and some
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shallow root zone moisture, but also down to 20
and 40 inch depths where we're going to see a lot
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more slower response to moisture, um... there as
well. And so, um... that'll be soil moisture and
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temperature data at all of those depths, um...
in real time as well. So, um... by next season,
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we... we really expect a lot of these data to
be available, and... and also some tools we're
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building on top of the soil moisture as well.
(Tim) You'll have a... a grass crop or something
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grown on top of it that'll suck the water out?
(Zach) So, yeah. These will... all these will
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not be under bare soil. So these will all be
buried under sod. And so, that will be important
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to consider and that this is going to reflect
the soil moisture responding to the weather if
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we just kind of let it be under sod and... and
mow occasionally. So this isn't going to take
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into account, um... management, like you would
in a crop field of the soil moisture, or plant
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water use of something that uses a little bit more
water than sod, like if you had corn or soybeans.
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So there will be some kind of communication and
learning how to use that soil moisture, uh...
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for crop management as well. But I think it'll be
very important data. (Tim) Oh, it will! Because we
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can see... what I'm interested in is how much our
deeper profile get... gets depleted. (Zach) Yes!
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And, um... I think that's a very relevant question
to right now where we've been in a drought,
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and we just received some rainfall in September.
We can go outside and make a quick assessment,
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see things have kind of greened up, and you can
look at the soil and know that the top soil got
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wet, but how deep did that... that rainfall
infiltrate? Did we really get into the subsoil
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and... and recharge the moisture? That's what
these sensors can... can tell us there. And it
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is fascinating to see the moisture at different
depths because the top will respond pretty quickly
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after a rainfall event, but you kind of get
a better idea of the total water storage for
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those deeper depths that... that take a little bit
to dry out or... or moisten as well. (Tim) Well,
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as we discussed last time, over the winter is...
winter is when you can re... replenish some of
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that subsoil moisture. (Zach) Yes. There is a...
a kind of seasonal cycle of soil moisture in that,
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um... by the spring we call it a moist plateau
where usually on average your soil moisture is...
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is, you've got full saturated soils from a wet
spring, and then usually we see that soil moisture
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decrease to a minimum in the fall just because of
plant transpiration and evaporation, and then on
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average we recharge the soils during the winter.
And so, a lot of people think soil moisture and
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growing season conditions, but then we're... we're
looking down into the winter, and we'll... we
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will have the data to watch, you know, how... how
much is that soil moisture recharging? Are... are
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we getting over these winter months rainfall into
the deeper layers? And that can be tricky because,
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in Missouri on average, we don't get, you know, a
deep frost depth and... and see these frozen soils
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for a long time. But we do see periods where we'll
get cold and... and then have rainfall on frozen
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soils where it may not infiltrate and being able
to monitor that as well. (Tim) But a snowfall,
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since it melts slowly often, it soaks in lot...
a lot, doesn't it? (Zach) Yeah, it depends. It
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can be. It depends all on the antecedent soil
temperature. If you've kind of been warm and
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you get a big snowfall, um... that's great for
soil moisture because the soil's kind of melting
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a lot of that snowfall... (Tim) Right. (Zach)
...from, uh... the ground on top of whatever
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the sun's doing, too. And so that soaks in really
nice. I would say though, what we had last winter,
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without having a ton of measurements, uh... wasn't
an ideal situation because we got into, you know,
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our January polar vortex and really cold for
a couple weeks, and that did freeze the soils.
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And then we got some of those snowfall events, and
they just stuck around for a couple weeks because
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of the cold. And I would say in that situation,
really you lost most of your moisture kind of
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slowly evaporating each day instead of making it
into the soil. But, you know, these are pretty
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complex things too that we'll be able to monitor
now having those temperature and moisture probes
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at different depths. So, it's going to give us a
lot more insight, um... during different parts of
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the season. (Tim) You know, I'll never forget.
We were having a dry summer, and I went up to a
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field day in northwest Missouri, and they'd been
having a dry summer, but I kept noticing that
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their crops looked a lot worse than ours. So I
got their field day book and realized they had had
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two years of drought. They had not replenished
their soil... subsoil moisture, so... so they were
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really hurting. (Zach) Yes. (Tim) So... so that
can... we can kind of judge that too is how bad
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are we really... really, uh... deficit. (Zach)
Absolutely. So that's going to be very relevant
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for Missouri because another thing we then look
at in the spring is... okay, usually the top soil
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moisture is going to be there in March and April
as long as we're having a normal Missouri spring,
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but coming off of drought years, and in... in
this case, coming off of multiple drought years
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for a lot of our... our state, um... how's that
deep moisture? (Tim) Yes. (Zach) Uh... because
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that takes a longer time to recharge, and you
really need a wetter pattern at that point.
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That's important because you might not need it
immediately in April and May, but if you get dry,
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you're only going to go into drought quicker if
you don't have some of that deeper moisture. And
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so, um... that'll be another critical time of year
where we'll be using that soil moisture. And then,
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of course, once you get into the season, just
how is it responding to temperatures and,
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um... precipitation as well. (Tim) So is the
one at South Farm up that we can actually see
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it? (Zach) We have the sensors installed. The
data are not up right now. (Tim) Ok. (Zach) So
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currently, um... we're kind of calibrating the
sensors, also waiting on... on some of the soil
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to settle too. (Tim) Sure. (Zach) So, the way
these are, it's really an interesting process,
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but it takes a long time to install, but they'll
dig down, um... into the pit and very carefully
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remove the soil in the order of the profile. Um...
then once the... the probes are installed, they
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00:34:54,967 --> 00:35:00,681
really backfill and tamp down that soil as in the
right order as much as they can. Um... but then
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we want to kind of wait and wait on some rainfall
events to... to see how the data is looking. By
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00:35:05,394 --> 00:35:10,650
next spring, we should have the... the soil moisture
at these stations available. Um... but also as
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a part of the MoHIC project, uh... the climate
center is also working with MoRAP, the Missouri
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00:35:16,197 --> 00:35:22,745
Resources Assessment Partnership on campus, and
we're looking to make, uh... high resolution soil
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moisture map. Even with, uh... soil moisture at
these Mesonet stations, uh... there's still lots
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of parts of the state that aren't going to have
the... these data available to them. How can we
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use what's available as far as the soil moisture
measurements, um... but then also look at some
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other data sets too? And so, uh... MoRAP has a
lot of experience with, uh... geospatial modeling,
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and so we're kind of looking at machine learning
to use mixture of climate data, so knowing our
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00:35:49,397 --> 00:35:55,403
rainfall and temperatures, but also combining that
with the soil characteristics too, um... to try
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00:35:55,403 --> 00:36:00,658
and model soil moisture. And so, um... the
end goal of the project is that, um... by the end
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00:36:00,658 --> 00:36:07,123
of next summer, we'll have 250 meter resolution
maps that show a grid of the soil moisture and
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00:36:07,123 --> 00:36:12,837
soil temperature across the state, and these would
update daily. And we're really excited for those
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00:36:12,837 --> 00:36:18,009
too because it may not, you know, it's a model,
so it may not perfectly get at that soil moisture,
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00:36:18,009 --> 00:36:22,346
um... but we are going to have some of the... the
radar precipitation, and hopefully it can kind of
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00:36:22,346 --> 00:36:27,768
dive into the local variations of soil moisture
there. So, that's another output of the project
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00:36:27,768 --> 00:36:34,734
that we're excited about. (Tim) That's great.
Yeah, we can better anticipate what kind of
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00:36:34,734 --> 00:36:40,323
conditions that we're going to have now, don't...
don't we? (Zach) Yes. (Tim) With this. Um... back
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00:36:40,323 --> 00:36:46,120
on your Mesonet, you know, I... I use it a lot,
and... and one thing I see is evapotranspiration.
404
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:51,125
Can you explain to our listeners what that is?
(Zach) Yes! Evapotranspiration is, um... the
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00:36:51,125 --> 00:36:56,505
combined movement of water from the land surface
to the atmosphere through, uh... evaporation
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00:36:56,505 --> 00:37:02,261
but also transpiration, which is plant water
movement. So where plants are taking up water,
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00:37:02,261 --> 00:37:06,515
um... from under the soil and... and moving it
into the plant and out through their stomata.
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00:37:06,515 --> 00:37:12,521
And so evapotranspiration is basically how much
water is moving from the ground to the atmosphere.
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00:37:12,521 --> 00:37:19,528
The Mesonet, we calculate it hourly and come up
with a... a sum for the day. And so usually in a
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00:37:19,528 --> 00:37:24,659
hot summer day like today when we're recording,
or a hot fall day, um... we might see up to two
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00:37:24,659 --> 00:37:30,831
tenths of an inch of evapotranspiration, and that
basically means, uh... you've lost the equivalent
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00:37:30,831 --> 00:37:36,254
of a 0.2 inch rainfall event from your soil in
water that day. (Tim) So that's more than an inch
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00:37:36,254 --> 00:37:41,550
a week?! (Zach) Yes. And in fact, that's really
important during the summer. (Tim) Yes! (Zach) So,
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00:37:41,550 --> 00:37:45,846
um... (Tim) Cuz I've seen .35s before in the
summer. (Zach) Yes. And, uh... the higher the
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00:37:45,846 --> 00:37:49,767
temperatures, the... the sunnier the conditions,
that's when you're going to have the highest
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00:37:49,767 --> 00:37:54,438
evapotranspiration. And we can have very high
rates during the summer, particularly during
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00:37:54,438 --> 00:38:00,569
drought, but a lot of times, it's really useful
to have that evapotranspiration as a water balance
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00:38:00,569 --> 00:38:07,159
model because, our rule of thumb just from taking
the monthly average rainfall is, on average,
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00:38:07,159 --> 00:38:11,455
we get about 1 inch a week of precipitation
in the summer for rainfall anywhere across
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00:38:11,455 --> 00:38:15,543
the state. (Tim) Which is a deficit! (Zach)
Yes! Exactly. And so if you're a farmer,
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00:38:15,543 --> 00:38:20,923
you need to know that that one inch on average is,
you're losing water each week even if you get an
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00:38:20,923 --> 00:38:25,845
inch of rainfall. That gives you a better picture
of where you're at from a water balance as far as
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00:38:25,845 --> 00:38:32,184
dryness and wetness there. And so, that's why
we provide the evapotranspiration, um... data,
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00:38:32,184 --> 00:38:37,690
that to... to do the calculation, we have, uh...
incoming solar radiation that we monitor with the
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00:38:37,690 --> 00:38:43,070
pyrometer, um... but then we have winds, humidity
and temperature as well and... and are able to...
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00:38:43,070 --> 00:38:47,533
to estimate it with those calculations. (Tim)
Yeah, I always look at those and get depressed
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00:38:47,533 --> 00:38:53,164
sometimes. I think, eww, we are losing! But...
but, so we... that really tells us in the winter,
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00:38:53,164 --> 00:38:57,626
that's when we're going to build our soil
moisture up. (Zach) Yes. And... and, um... yeah,
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00:38:57,626 --> 00:39:01,297
because you definitely don't lose much moisture
at all, um... (Tim) Right. (Zach) ...compared
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00:39:01,297 --> 00:39:06,010
to the summer because you lose almost all of the
vegetative component except for maybe some... some
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00:39:06,010 --> 00:39:11,057
tree species, um... and then evaporation is just
so much lower during the winter months. So it's
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00:39:11,057 --> 00:39:15,936
kind of a bonus period where you can put a lot
of rainfall and not worry about it being quickly,
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00:39:15,936 --> 00:39:19,940
um... removed and gone back to the atmosphere.
(Tim) Oh, wow. So I think this... this helps
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00:39:19,940 --> 00:39:25,946
you really, really see where your... your
balance is. And I also noticed on the Mesonet,
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00:39:25,946 --> 00:39:29,784
you do the feel like temperature. (Zach) Yes.
Yeah. (Tim) That made me feel really, really
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00:39:29,784 --> 00:39:34,830
hot a few times. No wonder I feel so hot! (Zach)
Yes. And... and that's a combination of the... the
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00:39:34,830 --> 00:39:40,169
humidity and temperature there, um... but it gives
us a better idea of... of what the temperatures
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00:39:40,169 --> 00:39:44,965
actually are... are like outside. I think
the past two or three years here in Missouri,
439
00:39:44,965 --> 00:39:50,346
we've had a lot of heat waves that might not have
been as impressive on paper from temperatures
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00:39:50,346 --> 00:39:56,185
where we might see 90s or upper 90s, but it was
the humidity that was extremely high and creating
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00:39:56,185 --> 00:40:00,731
the more dangerous conditions. So, um... that's
why we... we include that as well. (Tim) Because
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00:40:00,731 --> 00:40:04,652
our livestock producers, that's really
important. (Zach) Yes. Um... they don't
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00:40:04,652 --> 00:40:07,446
want to just know temperature. (Tim) Not just for
us. (Zach) Yeah. (Tim) That's not for Tim. That's
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00:40:07,446 --> 00:40:11,951
for the livestock. (Zach) Yep. Animals get... get
uncomfortable too, and so they're looking at that.
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00:40:11,951 --> 00:40:16,997
A lot of factors, but the... the cattle definitely
want to cool down at night too, and if we have
446
00:40:16,997 --> 00:40:22,503
really high humidity in those muggy nights, that's
not helpful. Um... but they also watch for, you
447
00:40:22,503 --> 00:40:27,800
know, amount of sunlight, so how much the cattle
are outside and, uh... winds too. The winds can
448
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,972
help kind of... the cattle sweat and remove some
of that heat. (Tim) You know, we got to close up
449
00:40:32,972 --> 00:40:38,018
here in just a minute, but you... you mentioned
nighttime temperatures. Those are going up,
450
00:40:38,018 --> 00:40:42,815
aren't they? (Zach) Yes. Um... (Tim) Our daytime
really aren't. (Zach) Yeah, it's been interesting.
451
00:40:42,815 --> 00:40:48,028
And... and the... our minimum temperatures are
rising quite a bit. I get asked a lot, "What's
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00:40:48,028 --> 00:40:52,992
Missouri's, uh... temperature trend?" And really
over the past 40 years, but over... over the whole
453
00:40:52,992 --> 00:40:57,705
record we are seeing rising temperatures, but
in Missouri, it doesn't tell the whole story.
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00:40:57,705 --> 00:41:04,086
You really have to break it down by season and
then high and low temperatures. And basically,
455
00:41:04,086 --> 00:41:09,300
our coldest temperatures are getting warmer. Our
warmest temperatures are staying the same or...
456
00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:14,263
or getting cooler. And so that means, we're
seeing more warming during the winter months,
457
00:41:14,263 --> 00:41:18,350
um... but also more warming with those overnight
low temperatures. And so... (Tim) Being
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00:41:18,350 --> 00:41:22,438
higher. (Zach) Being higher as well. So... (Tim)
In the summer? (Zach) In the summer. And so,
459
00:41:22,438 --> 00:41:28,819
in... in the summer, our high temperatures are
actually decreasing over the past 30 years where
460
00:41:28,819 --> 00:41:34,909
minimum temperatures are increasing, um... and...
and quite a bit more. So about two degrees, uh...
461
00:41:34,909 --> 00:41:40,414
per century over the past 30 years for the minimum
temperatures. And so, it kind of changes the flavor
462
00:41:40,414 --> 00:41:46,837
of summer heat though. Um... we're still getting
heat waves, but all of our all-time temperature
463
00:41:46,837 --> 00:41:53,052
records that we set during the 30s and 50s,
100 to 110 or... we're not seeing that as much,
464
00:41:53,052 --> 00:41:57,556
but instead, we're still getting these heat waves
with a lot of humidity, but then not cooling down
465
00:41:57,556 --> 00:42:01,644
at night. So you might have a night where the low
is 80. (Tim) Right! (Zach) And that can be just
466
00:42:01,644 --> 00:42:06,440
as bad for... for human and animal... (Tim) And
plants! (Zach) Yeah. Plants don't like that either
467
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:12,029
as well. So that's an important trend to know
because, uh... if we just say temperatures are
468
00:42:12,029 --> 00:42:16,033
warmer, that doesn't tell the whole story. It's...
it's these nighttime temperatures. (Zach) And
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00:42:16,033 --> 00:42:20,246
that's the beautiful thing about your Mesonet is
that you can measure all of those. (Zach) Correct.
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00:42:20,246 --> 00:42:25,000
Yes. (Tim) And it's going to be different in
the Bootheel versus northwest Missouri. They're
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00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:30,506
different climates. (Zach) Absolutely. Um... and
we do see that. And we have really what we call
472
00:42:30,506 --> 00:42:35,219
six climate divisions across Missouri, ranging
from the Bootheel to the Northwest Prairie, as we
473
00:42:35,219 --> 00:42:40,432
call it. But um... very diverse state climatically
but also geographically too. (Tim) And probably
474
00:42:40,432 --> 00:42:45,604
the Ozarks are a whole animal themselves. (Zach)
Yes. Yep. And... and they kind of have their own
475
00:42:45,604 --> 00:42:49,608
weird temperature records too because of
the topography as well. So you see some,
476
00:42:49,608 --> 00:42:53,612
some funny things. (Tim) Sometimes they're cold!
(Zach) Yes. Exactly. (Tim) Yeah. All right,
477
00:42:53,612 --> 00:42:57,700
Zach. We can talk about the weather all the
time. This is... this is so much fun. But,
478
00:42:57,700 --> 00:43:02,079
uh... thanks so much for coming out, and this
is it for Tim's Take. (Zach) Thanks, Tim.
479
00:43:02,079 --> 00:43:17,761
[♫]
