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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm your host, Gilles Gallant, and you're watching the Touchdown Show. We're back for NFL Week 5. And Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer, they join me each week, and we're going to get into these Week 5 matchups and find some anytime touchdown scores. Now, if you want to tail any of the touchdown bets we give out today, look for the quick slip link in the podcast and video description, or you can just go to actionnetwork.com slash bet now. We had a few winners last year. Grant, I think you kind of carried us Daniel Jones, Brock Bowers, Tony Pollard. We have Pat Friermuth, Emmanuel Wilson. So there were some winners sprinkled in there throughout the Sunday and primetime slates. But we're going to be looking now at week five. And I love the matchups that we're looking at now. And before we get started. BetSync. It is back in the Action app. If you're using the Action app, set up BetSync. It's better than ever. You can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sportsbooks and prediction markets. It's all in one place. All you got to do, you connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear in action as soon as you place them. So there's no more manual tracking. Then you can follow all your bets with live win probabilities, in-game alerts, bet analysis. So open up the Action app, head to my accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're good to go. So download the Action app today and connect with BetSync for free. All right, let's jump into these matchups, talk touchdowns for Week 5. Kerner, you're up first, and you've been assigned the London game. You've got the Eagles at the Jaguars. At, in quotations here, because we are going to be playing this game in London.
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Speaker 4: So.
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Speaker 3: What are the touchdown bets you like for that game?
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Speaker 5: Yeah, so for the Jaguars, who I consider the home team, they basically, they're, you know, very fond of London.
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Speaker 4: So I like them here.
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Speaker 5: And I like Brenton Strange at plus 290, who had a pretty big game last week, seven catches for 95 yards, but didn't find the end zone. But his underlying usage has been super steady, super solid.
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Speaker 4: Week in, week out.
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Speaker 5: And, you know, Liam Cohen loves to kind of mix up the game plan every week. But Strange being the top tight end kind of makes his role pretty steady. And this is a matchup where they're facing an Eagles defense that could be without both starting linebackers. Both Zach Bond and Jahad Campbell are both questionable right now. So it would make sense to make Strange, you know, sort of the focal point again here in the passing offense. So I like him here at plus 290 in London. And then for the Eagles, I got to go with Darius Cooper at plus 460. I was on his over 18 and a half receiving yards last week. I wrote up, you know, how long he's been waiting for this opportunity. This is his first real shot. He had that really fluky touchdown, you know, the go-ahead touchdown against the Titans last But he was, you know, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith's backup last year. And he didn't really get a chance to step up until week 18. But he essentially took over Devonta Smith's role as the ZG receiver. They kind of left Makai Lemon as the slot guy. And then Dontabian Wicks was still his typical X role. So obviously Cooper's not going to draw as many targets. as Devonta Smith, but it's still a key role in this passing offense. So in a game where they could be trailing, I mean, they're already like seven, eight point underdogs here. I'm expecting more passing. So I think Cooper has a good chance to find hands out once again this weekend. So I like him at plus 460.
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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I could argue with you.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: That, that, that touchdown against the Titans was lucky. I don't think there was anything lucky about his touchdowns against the Rams. Like one of them, he just mossed the guy. Like it was very impressive. So it was really good to see how he's performing in that offense. And yeah, Brenton strange again, just a very solid look, especially given the wide receiver rotation in that offense. It's really hard to pinpoint kind of whose week it's going to be. But yeah, you don't really want to play anybody on the outside because they'll probably get shut down by Quinn Young Mitchell at that point. So yeah, All right, Brenton Strange, Darius Cooper, that is who Kerner is on for Eagles-Jaguars. We now move to Giants commanders. Grant, you've got this one. Who do you like to score in this game?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so on the Giants side, I don't understand why he's priced anywhere close to this high, but it's Isaiah Likely. I know he hasn't scored since week one.
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Speaker 1: I don't care.
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Speaker 4: I know that it's going to rain.
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Speaker 3: I don't care.
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Speaker 2: I don't see why a guy who has six red zone targets on the year Has, what, a 29% target rate or target share? Potentially without neighbors, although likely, I guess, is currently questionable. But I'm pretty sure he's going to play. There's lots of injuries on this game. We'll get more of them when we get to the commander side of things. But there's just no way he should be priced this high in this matchup without neighbors, potentially. Neighbors did not practice again on Thursday. So this is just a spot where... where he should get a ton of volume. The rain is not going to affect it that much. It's definitely going to have an effect on the passing game, but this still is a spot where his odds shouldn't be over plus 200. Then on the other side, this one was tough because, I mean, running backs all seem to be injured. Wide receivers all seem to be injured. Diggs didn't practice on Thursday. McLaurin didn't practice on Thursday. Obviously, Mariota's probably out. Their injury report is so incredibly long. I pretty much had no choice but to go with Jayden Daniels, which I don't mind his odds here. It's a plus 250. I mean, I know that last season he only had two touchdowns. He hasn't scored yet this season, but obviously injuries have been a huge problem. Since beginning of last year, there is the chance that he ends up getting injured in this spot. This is a guy with not even 23 full games played so far in the NFL, and he has eight rushing touchdowns. He's a great threat with his legs. They've If they want any chance of doing anything this season, they've got to do something here. So 250, a bit too high of odds for him. But also, I have no one else that I can reasonably say is going to play in this game.
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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I was about to say the injury report looked like a grocery list, just as far as how long it was, like a CVS receipt. And then the other thing, too, about the weather, earlier in the week when people were starting to project kind of how this matchup would go, the weather changed. seem to be very dire but again as we go throughout the week it looks to be lightening up and I think the thing that helps too not a ton of wind it just looks to be like light showers so I think the weather is going to be pretty much negligible at this point but yeah Isaiah likely at plus 245 great price Jaden Daniels I mean it's not like he hurt his legs he you know he he's probably going to wear an arm brace you know just to make sure we don't see any more dislocations on live television so I like the both of these prices at 245 and plus.
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Speaker 4: 250 so.
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Speaker 3: All right, I'm going to move to the Texans-Titans game, one of the lower totals of the week. I'm sure people are going to be feeling good about maybe potentially taking it under around 38.5. In this game, though, I like Tony Pollard to score a touchdown. He's around plus 250. I think all the value in this game, especially when you dive into it, is kind of on the Titans side. And despite how heinous the Titans' offenses look this year, Pollard is still getting a ton of work. I was actually kind of shocked with how often they haven't been in the red zone, but then the fact that Tony Pollard is third in the NFL and carries inside the 10-yard line this year already. And there are six running backs with 10 plus carries inside the 10 yard line. Tony Pollard is the only one who doesn't have at least two touchdowns in that spot. And now we just, they're playing a defense that watched Javante Williams. He ran for three touchdowns on this defense last week. So I'm going to take Tony Pollard. I would even look at him maybe even for a first touchdown. So this next one though, guys, this one is a hear me out, boom or bust kind of pick. This is going to be the longest odds for an anytime touchdown pick that I have given out on the touchdown show. In five years. That is Brevin Jordan. That's who I'm going to take. Third string tight end on the Texans. So the Texans, they love this guy. Like he made his debut last week versus the Cowboys. Why you haven't heard of him much is because he's missed majority of the last two seasons with either a knee injury or other injuries as well. They still brought him back because he worked his way back through rehab. They love his leadership and toughness. He scored three touchdowns in his rookie year. Last time that I actually remember seeing him in game action, you guys might recall this. It was against the Browns in the playoffs in 2024. He ripped off a 76-yard touchdown. Now, he might not see the field much, but if the Texans get in the red zone, which I do expect against this Titans defense, and he's out there, he's likely getting the ball or at least going to get targeted. Two targets on four routes so far this year. And just given with the Texans passing offense, how much they go through Nico Collins, I'm not going down the road with Xavier Hutchinson. I don't want to look at Dalton Schultz, Jalen Knoll. That's all well and good. I think we've got to go long shot or nothing, so I'm going to take Brevin Jordan at 25-1 to score an anytime touchdown against that Titans defense. All right, let's move to a pretty fun matchup here. We've got the Vikings visiting the New Orleans Saints. And, Kerner, you got that one. What do you like for touchdown scores in that game?
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Speaker 5: I'm going to go with Devon Bailey for the Saints at plus 330. He's just been really solid for them as their number two wide receiver and should continue to be, at least until their first-round pick, Jordan Tyson, returns from injury.
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Speaker 4: That's still weeks away, probably.
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Speaker 2: So....
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Speaker 5: You know, Bailey had that nice touchdown catch at the end of the game, sort of in garbage time against the Falcons. Always kind of a sneaky touchdown bet, in my opinion. But this week, against the Vikings, where we already know they're going to blitz a shit ton.
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Speaker 4: Under Brian Flores.
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Speaker 5: Vele is the guy that actually sees the biggest increase in target rate when Shuck is facing a blitz.
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Speaker 4: Because his target rate is.
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Speaker 5: 15% when Shuck is facing four or fewer pass rushers. But once he's facing a blitz, it goes all the way up to 22%. So I think that they're going to expect the blitz. Vele could be the hot read more times than not. So especially kind of in the red zone. That gives them a little bit more upside here. And even though the Vikings do blitz, they are vulnerable to more explosive plays because of it. So I think Vele is a great play here at plus 330. And then on the Vikings side, I got to go with 5'10 Jalen Daniels, also known as Kyler Murray, at plus 475. He hasn't been using his legs as much with the Vikings, but that's understandable because... I mean, he got clocked on what his like second drop back ever and his debut for the Vikings. So I think he's still trying to get comfortable in the new scheme with his new team. But, you know, we're a few games in now. So I think he's going to start to lean on his legs. I'm sure Kevin O'Connell is kind of telling him we need you to scramble more. That's kind of why he's there. But I could see him being a little bit more scramble happy here, especially, you know, kind of in the red zone. So, You know, on the other side, the Saints, they faced three mall Santas and Lamar Jackson this year. Lamar managed, you know, 34 rushing yards on four attempts. Nobody else has scrambled on them. So it's really hard to parse how their defense is handled when a QB scrambles, but it's Kyler Murray. So I think if he gets a good scramble here, I think he's a solid bet at plus 475 to score.
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Speaker 3: That's kind of where I was going with that too, because Kyler, like in the two games, So he's been at plus 310, plus 275, and plus 325. That was kind of the window where I was like, it's not good enough. Now we're seeing plus 475, indoor matchup. I love that price. And then Devon Bailey, we're all big fans of Devon Bailey around here at this point. So yeah, great picks by you, Kerner. Let's now move to Bengals at Dolphins. And Grant, seeing the first pick here, it looks like we're going right back to Old Faithful. What do you got?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the thing that's been going well since the beginning of last year, it's tight ends versus the Bengals, which are actually now the better matchup. But Bengals still a very good matchup. Gave up 16 touchdowns last year. They've already given up several this season to opposing tight ends. I know my aim is terrible. They're absolutely horrible. And I did not get a single target last week, but going up against the Vikings and how awful their entire offense looked outside of Gordon.
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Speaker 3: I don't really care.
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Speaker 2: He's running routes at second highest rate on the team. He only has a 10% target share, but the matchup here is one where I think the Dolphins could actually put up a touchdown or two, which doesn't happen too often for them. He has two targets so far in the red zone this season, which is second only to Malik Washington on the team. Obviously, without HN in there, they're going to be forced to pass ball a little bit more in the matchup. It's not a bad one overall. We're getting him a plus 500 here. So, odds just far too high for virtually any tight end versus the Bengals. And considering he's the second target on the team, that is not going to run as much and not going to use the running back out of the, in the receiving game as much here, far too high of odds. And then on the other side, much like the commander's game, I don't know who's going to play. I have no idea who's going to play over on the Bengal side of things. There's so many injuries. Chase may not end up playing. Higgins may not end up playing. I'm guessing at least one of them, potentially both, don't end up playing in this spot here. Mitchell Tinsley, a guy who we've seen put up some great, great jump ball passes. He can absolutely just F it. Throw him up there like Mike Evans type role in the red zone. He had two touchdowns last year in a very tiny role. Just 24 overall targets. He's the F it. He's up there somewhere. Just throw it to him. And if Chase isn't there and Higgins isn't there, he's going to get a lot of playing time. He's going to get a lot of volume. If one of them is gone without Yossi Voss in there, he's still going to get some decent playing time here. So you can find him at plus 310 at the moment. It's a bit too high. If you want, you can wait and hear where Chase and Higgins are at tomorrow or Saturday, even Sunday morning. But I'm guessing the closer it gets to game time, And the more news we have, if it looks like they're not going to play, his odds are only going to go down. So I'm just rolling with the year.
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Speaker 3: Well, as a former friend of the show, Chris Rabon used to say, Mitchell Tinsley, professional touchdown catcher, I believe is what he would refer to. And I completely agree because in the two games last year that Jamar missed one, T. Higgins missed two. You can go look at the snap differences. Mitchell Tinsley basically playing double. The amount of snaps and routes run when one of those guys misses. You can go right to that New England game where T. Higgins missed that game. That's where Mitchell Tinsley caught that touchdown. I love that pick. And then, of course, set and forget it. Always taking the opposing tight end against the Bengals. It'll probably end up making you more profit than none by the end of the year. Okay, I've got Browns-Jets, two offenses that I did not feel very great about entering the season and I'm still kind of on the fence of how I actually feel about them, but we'll see. But I do think there are two guys that we can get for touchdown scores. On the Browns side, I think it's his turn. I'm taking Casey Concepcion at plus 320. It's my turn to take it. Kerner, I think, took it last week. I think Grant took it the week before. Again, just... I hate to use the term like he's due, but he just checks a lot of boxes. Three red zone looks so far, a red zone carry. He's running the second most routes on the team, leads the team in targets for route run. They're going to try to scheme up ways to make some space for him to make a play. I think as long as this Browns offense isn't a complete disaster, I like the value of what we're seeing on this side. So I'm going to take the rookie to get his first touchdown. Now this guy I bet last week and some, some would point to it as luck, but I kind of was like waiting for this kind of to happen. It's Isaiah Williams with the jets. He's around plus four 50. I took him at five to one last week and got rewarded with a 58 yard bomb over the top. And part of the reason why I was on him last week was just the injuries were piling up so much for the jets. Like, Adonay Mitchell wasn't playing last week. He's not practicing again this week. Mason Taylor might come back this week. But again, just a lot of injuries on the pass catcher front. And he's been running a route on 90% of dropbacks in each of the last two games. And I like the fact, too, that he's not going to be lining up outside as much at 53% in the slot so far through four games. That means that he'll probably likely avoid the Denzel Ward matchup, who I think is probably going to try to match up with Garrett Wilson as much as possible. And last week we saw the Browns give up a 12-year touchdown out of the slot to Roman Wilson. So I'm going to see if the Jets can take advantage of that again this week. So I like Isaiah Williams to score a touchdown against the Browns at plus 450. Football season is here, folks, and if you don't already have the Action Network app, now is the perfect time. Plus, to get the most out of the app, you'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber. It's only with Action Pro you get real-time pick alerts from the entire Action Network team of experts. You can access pro projections, which are powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team, plus a ton of other benefits. Right now, Action Network podcast listeners, you can save $ 20 off the annual price of Action Pro. Just go to actionnetwork.com slash pro, use code POD20. That's actionatwork.com slash pro. Use code POD20 for $ 20 off the annual price of Action Pro. Now, before we continue, here's a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
00:18:10
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Speaker 3: You're watching week five of the Touchdown Show on the Action Network podcast, and we're going through all the games here to find our best anytime touchdown bets. We are now on Colts at Steelers. Kerner, you got this one. What do you like for touchdown props in this game?
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Speaker 5: For the Colts side, I'm going to go with, look, Juan Treadwell at plus 600, really, you know, kind of a bizarre career where he was a first round pick 10 years ago. Hasn't really done much as a pro, but he made the 53 man roster and he's kind of been the Alec Pierce replacement ever since he went down. He's out there, you know, right around 75% of Daniel Jones dropbacks. And he made a couple of huge, big catches there. At the end of a couple games now to help them win. So they've been just sticking with him. Keenan Allen might return this week. His availability doesn't impact Treadwell at all. Again, you have Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, Tyler Warren all just running underneath. Treadwell is typically just running wind sprints, and if he's open, Daniel Jones will throw it. So I think he's a sneaky bet to catch a long pass here, maybe a touchdown. The one thing is they signed Darius Slayton a few weeks ago, and he's been a healthy scratch every week. If he's active, then I would kind of lower Treadwell's at least playing time a bit. But the fact that they've had Slayton and he's been a healthy scratch means, well, probably he's not like up to speed at the playbook, but also they're kind of pleased with what they've seen with Treadwell. So I think that's kind of a good sign for him. Either way, I do like him here at plus 600 when he's kind of in the Alec Pierce role as of now. And then on the Steeler side, pretty easy one for me. He scored for me last week, but it's Pat Firemuth at plus 300. Um, we already have Michael Pittman's already ruled out. Uh, so I think Firemuth and others, you know, get a boost. Uh, he has, you know, a pretty similar route tree as Pittman. So he might get a couple extra snaps, maybe an extra target without Pittman there, especially, you know, when they get the red zone. But I think the one thing the market's still not pricing in as much with Muth or as much as it should is he's the main call main ball carrier in the tush push. Now, you know, Connor Hayward is off to, um, The Raiders, he's their tush push guy now. So Booth, I think at some point he's going to get a one yard touchdown run. So at plus 300, I don't think that's being factored in enough. I have that in my model and I have this closer to plus 260 because obviously he's a threat for receiving touchdown as well. But I think at plus 300, we got to keep buying in on this guy.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like Google AI is like listening to our conversation or something, because while you were speaking, I just looked up Darius Slayton. And the first article that came up and said, Darius Slayton hasn't played in the last two weeks. Let him explain why. And I was like, what? Let Slayton himself explain? Yeah, exactly.
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Speaker 4: What did he say?
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Speaker 3: He said that it was basically he hadn't practiced enough and Shane Syken has to get him up to speed. So I was like, OK, well, you know, that makes sense. But but at the same time, Treadwell has been a perfect reclamation project for the Colts. Like I still like the price at six to one, because even, even in Slayton's prime, it's not like he was some sort of touchdown threat with the Giants. So, you know, I think at this point I still love the Treadwell pick, especially if you're getting it at six to one. All right, let's move now to Raiders at Patriots. Oh, this is a, this is a rematch from week one of last year. Grant, you got this game. Who did you like for touchdown scores in that one?
00:22:22
Speaker 2: I was going back and forth on which tight end to use for the Raiders, and I just couldn't get away from Brock Bowers. He's sitting around plus 145, and dude is just so heavily involved in this offense. So far, only played two games. In those two games, 14 targets and 11 targets. Touchdown in each. There's a spot here where he's going to continue to get just absolutely fed. He's the clear number one option. And this offense actually has a competent head coach offensively coaching him now. And a competent quarterback, although Gino Smith is competent this year, was not competent last year. And you can say the same thing vice versa for Kirk Cousins. But this offense is playing very well with Kubiak as a coach. And Bowers is just being absolutely force-fed. So even getting him at plus 145, I think there's some value on that. And on the other side, Drake made a score touchdown. I know that the hate on Drake May is absolutely through the roof. Granted, it went down a little bit after Buffalo losing last week, but he's still scrambling a lot. 23 rushing attempts so far on the season. There's been four rushing attempts by the Patriots, I believe, within the five-yard line so far this season. Two of those are Drake May. We would not have seen him very often at plus 450 in a matchup like this last year to score. I don't know why we're seeing it now. I think just the hate has gotten too bad and people are just kind of waving off what he did last week. I still think that he's a very good quarterback and we're going to see him. Maybe not what he was last year, but he's far too good of a Russian quarterback to be priced at plus 450 in this spot. So I'm rolling with that.
00:24:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the market just isn't adjusting because like last week he got tackled at the one. Had he scored that touchdown, we're not seeing plus 450 now. It's probably closer to like plus 320 in my opinion. But Brock Bowers, I mean, he has four end zone targets in two games. That already is the Raiders lead just through two games. And I don't see that stopping anytime soon, just given how dominant he is right now and against the Patriots who just checking the injury report. I think Christian Gonzalez is probably going to be out again this week too. So, uh, they're not probably going to be in a good spot to be able to defend, uh, uh, receiving threats like a Brock Bowers. Um, I have the, uh, bears Packers game. And, uh, these are two guys that, uh, I've tried each week. I'll just give you a peek behind the curtain. I try to find different angles. I don't want to just keep throwing up the same guy every week, but at the same time, when, if you're, they're going to keep showing me value and having a guy who's that involved in the offense, I think we have to go back to it. So Luther Burton is right now at plus two 40. Um, If the Bears are just going to run over teams every week, then we probably just need to avoid Bears pass catchers altogether. But if they actually start getting into a position where their run game isn't as efficient and they have to throw, then Luther Burton is my guy. I mean, 32% first read target share leads the Bears with six red zone targets. He's kind of playing that Amon Ross, St. Brown role in Ben Johnson's offense and the Packers defense, especially in the secondary, dealing with some injuries. There's also a little bit of a rivalry thing going with Luther Burden and Keyshawn Nixon. I don't know if you guys remember that smack talk that they had like last year, but. It's still very prominent, at least in the discussions about this game. So I'll take a guy who maybe has a little extra motivation to score a touchdown here given at plus 240. On the Packers side, though, this is a set it and forget it. Like Tucker Kraft, he's right now still around plus 250. He finally came alive in week four, scored his first touchdown. And I think this could be a good start of a run for Kraft because he's Each week, kind of the discussion, at least that he's been having with reporters, is that, oh, he's starting to feel a little bit better, starting to feel a little bit healthier. And you're seeing his snaps and routes run increased by each week. And now in week four, when he kind of started to look like he's starting to look like himself, he was targeted three times in the red zone, two in the end zone, one of those catching four touchdowns. So this is just too much volume in the red zone and just too high of odds at this point for Tucker Kraft. Like last year when he scored seven touchdowns over six games, You weren't getting better than like plus 150 by the time he was getting hurt. And given the matchups the Packers have coming up. So if Tucker Kraft scores this week, you probably won't see plus 200 again for at least a month because they've got the Cowboys, Panthers and Lions. All three of those teams rank top bottom 10 rather. In defense of DVOA versus tight ends this year, neither of those passing offenses have stopped much this year. So again, if Tucker's craft want to get ahead of the market here, if he scores again, you're not going to see plus 200 probably for another month. So now we're on to the 4 p.m. slate. So only three games for the 4 p.m.
00:27:12
Speaker 4: Slate.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: We each got one. This is the Broncos at Chargers. Kerner, you got this one. What did you want to pick for touchdown scores in that game?
00:27:21
Speaker 5: This one, I'm definitely going to go with a couple of long shots. And for the Broncos side, I'm going to go Troy Franklin at plus 650 because Pat Bryant's expected to miss some time with an ankle injury. At least he's doubtful this week. So we have to double check that he's ruled out. But if he's out, that's going to give all the wide receivers a boost this week. And I would say Franklin specifically should see the biggest boost, at least in terms of playing time and usage. So I think he's worth a fly here at like plus 650. And he's been really more of a downfield threat for them. So, you know, he's not a guy I'm expecting, you know, a contested catch in the end zone when they're in the red zone. But, you know, if he gets open deep, I could see him and his former college roommate. I know that's, Jill, you love when people bring that up to death, but it's true. So, you know, I could see them connecting for a long touchdown here for old time's sake, at least. So I like him at plus 650. And on the other side, it's a disaster. But I'm going to go with MVS at 12-1. Did you know that MVS is a receiver for the Chargers right now? You wouldn't know if you looked at the box score because he's yet to catch a pass for them. But last week when Ladd went down, he was out there running around on about 40% of Herbert's dropbacks. And with Ladd, questionable. I think Quinton's questionable. um Brennan's questionable everybody's questionable but Trey Harrison MVS so I think there's a good chance MVS could be out there like half of Herbert's drop back so you know he's probably going to be running a win sprint 90% of the time but you know Herbert has a cannon if MVS does get open I could see them connecting for a long touchdown here plus Broncos quarterbacks are both banged up uh Pat Sertan likely out this week. Riley Moss is questionable. He has a rib injury, so he might be out. So they could be pretty thin on the corners on the outside. So MVS, you know, I think crazier things have happened than him getting open for a long touchdown. So love the odds we're getting here at 12 to one.
00:29:31
Speaker 4: Why not?
00:29:32
Speaker 3: Well, I just wanted to make sure to see how many teams he has been on since the start of the 2024 season. This would be his fifth team in the last two seasons. And you remember like in 2024, like immediately made an impact, scored like four touchdowns in three games for the Saints. And then last year, didn't do much with the 49ers, played one game with the Steelers, ended up catching a touchdown against the Dolphins. So yeah, just a crazy career for mvs.
00:30:01
Speaker 4: He was on he's on your cowboys to start there i think right yeah but i mean.
00:30:05
Speaker 3: Yeah i think he well he got just when you got those like periphery guys like i just don't really account sometimes of whether or not they're on the final roster and yeah he's with mvs like at 12 to 1 what there's nothing wrong with that especially given uh the injury concerns right now on the charger side for pass catchers Okay, pretty good matchup here in the afternoon, Grant, featuring your Seattle Seahawks hosting the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. Touchdown scores. There's some value here, I think, and I think you are looking at... Why don't you just tell us?
00:30:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, starting off with the Seahawks. This is, by the way, going to be such a fun game. I mean, yeah, as a Seahawks fan, I'm scared of it, and I'm really looking forward to it. Starting off on the Seahawks side, A.J.
00:30:52
Speaker 4: Barner.
00:30:53
Speaker 2: Score touchdown, plus 310. We know this offense runs through the run game and through JSN, but with Price now out on injured reserve, don't know who's going to end up playing how much. Charbonnet may end up coming back. Who knows at this moment, but the running game, not quite as good without Price in there. So they may have to rely a little bit more on the passing game. 49ers offense, obviously, has been spectacular despite all their injuries this season. Probably going to put up a lot of points. This should be a back-and-forth game here. And Barner is one of the most heavily involved guys, especially in the red zone so far this season. Inside the five-yard line, two targets in one rush attempt where he did get a touchdown. He's also the guy that can do the push-tush in there and get one that way. Inside the 20, he's had five targets so far this season. So overall, he's a huge part of this offense. You're getting two high odds at plus 310. Don't forget what he ended up doing last year. Obviously had six touchdowns through the air, one on the ground. So this guy is a huge part of this red zone offense. And on the other side, I think Mike Evans into playing. I'm going with him right now. If he doesn't, you can always go to Debo. I mean, that offense is all over the place with the amount of injuries, but Mike Evans, always a massive red zone threat, always just going to get multiple balls thrown to me. If they're in the red zone has four targets so far in the year has multiple touchdowns. He's a guy that can go up against anyone and they'll just happily give kind of a, Devontae Adams' role is just, all right, throw it over to him instead of running. 210 is too high of odds in what should be a fairly high-scoring game. I know the Seattle defense is very, very good, but I think the 49ers are going to put up offense regardless. I really like him at plus 210 if he ends up playing. If he doesn't, Debo is kind of the last man standing there, him or Kittle, but I think Evans ends up playing here, and I like his odds.
00:32:43
Speaker 3: Well, while you were talking, I just had to go look up some historical odds for Mike Evans. And the last time that he closed with odds over plus 200, I mean, we have to go back to post-Tom Brady, pre-Baker Mayfield games, right? That's how far back we go now. It's before Baker Mayfield because since Baker's been there, at best you're getting around like plus 180. Now over to San Francisco in an offense that is probably even better than anything the Bucs have ever shown. You're going to get him in a specialist spot. Plus 210, very solid look. The fact that they're throwing that out there, yeah, it's almost like you have to kind of bet that when you're getting Mike Evans at that price. Last game before we get into the primetime games, Lions at Cardinals. unfortunately, uh, Trey McBride has been completely priced out. You can no longer get him, uh, anything over like plus one 20. Uh, so I'm going to go back to Marvin Harrison jr. I took him last week in my anytime touchdown preview. I know Michael Wilson has a lot more of the convincing receiver metrics, but again, uh, I think all Cardinals pass catchers are alive to get a was able to get that touchdown against the giants. And again, at plus 300 or better, I'm going to almost take this every time. I also think too, just there's a lot of reports of whether or not Marv could get traded, you know, at some time before the deadline. I think the Cardinals, if anything, they probably still want to showcase them a little bit more because right now the, the, the projected return is like a fourth round pick. And I'd imagine they would like to get a little bit more for their former fourth overall pick as a spot. So, And then on the Lions side, Kerner, I had to do it. I'm just going to take Isaac to slough. I mean, this one is pretty simple. All you got to do is look at the Lions touchdown score odds. You're going to see right at the top, you're going to see Jameer Gibbs at minus 450. So just as an FYI about that, if that closes at minus 450, that'll be a record of the highest or lowest odds, depending on how you look at it, for an anytime touchdown score in my five-year database. So automatically you're knowing that right now at the top, not a ton of value there. Sam Laporta, Jamison Williams. I mean, Jamo hasn't even scored a touchdown yet, and the best price you can get him is at plus 180. So I'm just telling you right now that it's hard to find value on the Lions side, but that's why I think Isaac Tisla, he's around plus 425. I think that's the guy you kind of have to set and forget at these prices because three red zone targets so far, two end zone targets, but no touchdowns yet. We know he has that highlight advantage. Touchdown catch, real. Everything that we saw in his rookie year, he had six touchdowns last year. Most of them were highlight grabs. The fact that you're getting it around plus 425, plus 450, that's kind of what we have to do now with the Lions, unless you want to do like Jameer Gibbs for two touchdowns at minus odds almost, which is just not worth doing at this point for touchdown props. So that's what I'm going to do. Marvin Harrison Jr. at plus 350 and Isaac Tesla at plus 450. Okay, let's move to Sunday Night Football. Now, instead of assigning a game to each of us, I think we'll just build a parlay for both Sunday Night Football and for Monday Night Football. So we'll start with Sunday Night Football. That is the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Atlanta Falcons. Now, Lamar Jackson is expected out for this game, so we will see Tyler Snoop Huntley starting for the Ravens. So regardless of that, I'm still going to go with Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews right now is around plus 260 to score an anytime touchdown. To me, that's just far too high of a price for– A quarterback that has targeted his tight ends quite a bit in his career. And Mark Andrews, still very much a focal point of the passing game. I think if Tyler Huntley is going to be throwing, especially near the goal line, Mark Andrews is going to be his best target. Grant, who do you like to score a touchdown for? Ravens at Falcons.
00:36:31
Speaker 2: I'm going with Austin Hooper to score a touchdown. He's been playing a decent amount of snaps every week this season. I think he's had no less than 23% of snaps. He's semi-involved in the red zone. They really haven't thrown the ball much in the red zone. I think on the season, he's actually tied outside of the running backs in most red zone targets at one, which is an absolutely wild stat considering how many points they've put up the last two weeks. Obviously, this offense runs very heavily through Bijan and through Ryan Robinson. But Hooper, I think, is the guy that I have the most value on. Obviously, I'm not going to Bet either of the running backs after the performance they just put on, their odds are way too low now. Or at least Bijan is. But Hooper at plus 900, a little bit of value there.
00:37:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if Bijan is just going to house a touchdown off every other carry, it's going to be hard to get some Falcons touchdown scores. That's all I'll say. But Austin Hooper, definitely heavily involved. Always in whenever we can find a way to fade Kyle Pitts. So I'm in with that. So Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, Carter, round out this parlay. Who do you like to score Ravens at Falcons?
00:37:45
Speaker 5: I'm going to go with B-Rob here. Brian Robinson Jr. at plus 240. Again, kind of piggybacking what Grant said. The market is fully aware of Brian Robinson Jr. now after his three touchdown game.
00:37:59
Speaker 4: On Monday Night Football. But I had written up in my.
00:38:02
Speaker 5: RB upside piece before the season started that I kind of expected him to take over the Algier role, which is kind of annoying for fantasy managers because he's going to be in a little bit more around the goal line. Kind of take some of that dirty work away from Bijan to keep him fresh, more importantly. But Brian Robinson, he's just been really good. And this Falcon offense has been way better with Michael Penix on their center. And they're extremely run heavy. So this is the kind of offense where... I wouldn't be shocked if we have multiple games this year, we're both running back score. So even though I don't love, love the price at plus 240, just kind of an investment in this offense, especially if, you know, the Ravens are without Lamar Jackson, it could be a leading game script against the Ravens, which you wouldn't expect, you know, heading into week one. So I think Brian Robinson, even though cat's out of the bag on him, I still think he's sneakier at plus 240.
00:38:54
Speaker 3: All right, so Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, and Brian Robinson Jr., not Bijan Robinson. If you parlay those three together, gentlemen, that's 100 to 1 right now at DraftKings. So I love this parlay right now, especially because I feel like a lot of people are going to be figuring out ways of how they invest in Bijan, figuring out ways to tell you that Kyle Pitts is finally due for a breakout. And I'm saying no. We're going Austin Hooper, Brian Robinson, and Mark Andrews. So I like that three pairing there. Monday Night Football, probably the game of the week. Bills at Rams. For this one... this one was a little tougher because, again, the value at the top is just very difficult to find any type of values. Like, you know, if you're looking at like Puka or Devontae or even Josh Allen, like they're all kind of steamed at this point. So I'm going to take Dalton Kincaid. He's around two to one. He hasn't scored since week one, but again, facing this kind of defense, I think this is a spot where he would be able to be a little bit more effective, especially with the Rams, who play a little bit more of a zone coverage, a little bit of single high. That's kind of more in Dalton Kincaid's wheelhouse. So I'm going to take Dalton Kincaid to get back on the scoreboard. That's who I like to score for Monday Night Football. Grant, who did you like?
00:40:05
Speaker 4: I'm going with Khalil Shakur.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: You can find him at plus 270. Right now, he's actually the leader in red zone targets overall. on this team with six so far this year. Moore being doubtful, I really doubt he plays. So that should mean a good amount of playing time. I mean, he got up to 76% snaps last week, 73% the week before. Obviously, he's probably the number one option outside of Kincaid in this offense at the moment, or at least in this passing offense. Obviously, you got Cook there that could take one in. Allen can take multiple in, apparently. But Shakira at plus 270 is a little bit too high of odds.
00:40:44
Speaker 3: All right, so we've got Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir. Are we going to put three bills on this parlay, Kerner, or are you looking at a Ram touchdown score to round out this parlay?
00:40:55
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll mix it up with the Rams pick here, and I'm going with Kyron Williams to score the first touchdown at plus 500. Always a good bet because, you know, not only is he a touchdown machine, even though he rotates heavily with Blake Corum, he usually gets opening drive to himself. And in these big games, they like to lean on him even more. So he could get the second drive as well. And even if Corham starts the second drive, if they do get in the red zone or closer to the goal line, could see Kyron check back in.
00:41:25
Speaker 4: So I think the first two drives, he might be out there in goal line packages.
00:41:30
Speaker 5: So always love Kyron's upside, but especially in these closer big games, they tend to lean on him even more. So give me Kyron to score the first touchdown plus 500.
00:41:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I for sure thought you were going to go Blake Corum. So you kind of threw me there for a loop.
00:41:46
Speaker 4: Not in these spots.
00:41:47
Speaker 5: No, I know when to not target my guy here.
00:41:51
Speaker 4: This is definitely one of those games. So he's going to score three touchdowns.
00:41:55
Speaker 3: All right, so if Kyron scores the first touchdown, we're unlocked because then we've got Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown and Dalton Kincaid to each score a touchdown. For Monday Night Football, you put those three together. That probably comes out to just around 70 to 1 touchdowns. at DraftKings. Okay, guys, I want to do one more parlay before we get out of here. We did Sunday Night Football. We did Monday Night Football. Before we get out of here, let's give our favorite touchdown scores for Week 5, presented by DraftKings. It could be from any game, and then we're going to parlay them together over on DraftKings. Kerner, why don't you start us off?
00:42:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going to go with Pat Framuth here at plus 300 because he gets a boost with Michael Pittman, officially ruled out already. He has a second-most red zone targets just behind Jalen Warren. So he's always a threat inside the red zone. Aaron Rodgers, you know, typically loves targeting his top tight end, but I think the market is still kind of underpricing the fact that he is the main ball carrier in their tush push. So I'm expecting at least once this year, he gets a one yard touchdown run as well as having upside as a pass catcher in the red zone. So give me a move at plus 300.
00:43:06
Speaker 3: All right, Pat Fryermuth to start us off. Grant, where are you going for your favorite touchdown score of Week 5?
00:43:12
Speaker 2: I'm going with Isaiah Likely. I already talked about it extensively how I have no idea how he's priced so high. Potentially no neighbors. He's the by far go-to target in this passing offense here. I'm not worried about the rain. Plus 245, far too high.
00:43:27
Speaker 3: All right, well then I'm going to round it out then. This wasn't a game that I was assigned, but this was just one that I'm not passing on this at this stage. And that is Justin Jefferson coming back this week playing the Saints. Going through injury reports, it looks like he has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday. He says that he intends to play. If he's going to play, then he's going to be good to go. We know that he's going to probably see a 30% target share. I think with Kyler Murray, that'll add another element to him to be able to get open down the field. And then, of course, this is just a nice little fun factor about this. This is the first time the Vikings have been back to play New Orleans in New Orleans. So this is actually going to be a little bit of a homecoming for Justin Jefferson. Not to say that I'm only betting it just because of that. Jenna can do enough on his own. But the fact that you got that extra motivation playing in front of your hometown, I don't want to pass on that. So when you parlay Pat Friermuth, Isaiah Likely, and Justin Jefferson, that parlay comes up to just under 34 to 1. at DraftKings. So those are our favorite touchdown scores of the week presented by DraftKings. You absolutely want to tail these over on DraftKings because all customers get a profit boost every game day. Download the DraftKings Sports app. Use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when you sign up. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, that'll do it for us here on the Touchdown Show for Week 5 presented by DraftKings. My thanks to Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer. Thank you guys again for joining me. Don't forget, BetSync is back in the Action app. You can go check that out. Also, sign up for annual subscription. You can get $ 20 off of Action Pro by using the code POD20. So make sure to subscribe to the podcast. You won't miss anything for the rest of the NFL season. So I want to thank you again for tuning in to the Action Network podcast. We'll see you next week. Phone check.
00:45:22
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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm your host, Gilles Gallant, and you're watching the Touchdown Show. We're back for NFL Week 5. And Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer, they join me each week, and we're going to get into these Week 5 matchups and find some anytime touchdown scores. Now, if you want to tail any of the touchdown bets we give out today, look for the quick slip link in the podcast and video description, or you can just go to actionnetwork.com slash bet now. We had a few winners last year. Grant, I think you kind of carried us Daniel Jones, Brock Bowers, Tony Pollard. We have Pat Friermuth, Emmanuel Wilson. So there were some winners sprinkled in there throughout the Sunday and primetime slates. But we're going to be looking now at week five. And I love the matchups that we're looking at now. And before we get started. BetSync. It is back in the Action app. If you're using the Action app, set up BetSync. It's better than ever. You can automatically track your activity across 15 plus sportsbooks and prediction markets. It's all in one place. All you got to do, you connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will automatically appear in action as soon as you place them. So there's no more manual tracking. Then you can follow all your bets with live win probabilities, in-game alerts, bet analysis. So open up the Action app, head to my accounts, connect your sportsbook or prediction market, and you're good to go. So download the Action app today and connect with BetSync for free. All right, let's jump into these matchups, talk touchdowns for Week 5. Kerner, you're up first, and you've been assigned the London game. You've got the Eagles at the Jaguars. At, in quotations here, because we are going to be playing this game in London.
00:02:07
Speaker 4: So.
00:02:08
Speaker 3: What are the touchdown bets you like for that game?
00:02:11
Speaker 5: Yeah, so for the Jaguars, who I consider the home team, they basically, they're, you know, very fond of London.
00:02:17
Speaker 4: So I like them here.
00:02:19
Speaker 5: And I like Brenton Strange at plus 290, who had a pretty big game last week, seven catches for 95 yards, but didn't find the end zone. But his underlying usage has been super steady, super solid.
00:02:33
Speaker 4: Week in, week out.
00:02:34
Speaker 5: And, you know, Liam Cohen loves to kind of mix up the game plan every week. But Strange being the top tight end kind of makes his role pretty steady. And this is a matchup where they're facing an Eagles defense that could be without both starting linebackers. Both Zach Bond and Jahad Campbell are both questionable right now. So it would make sense to make Strange, you know, sort of the focal point again here in the passing offense. So I like him here at plus 290 in London. And then for the Eagles, I got to go with Darius Cooper at plus 460. I was on his over 18 and a half receiving yards last week. I wrote up, you know, how long he's been waiting for this opportunity. This is his first real shot. He had that really fluky touchdown, you know, the go-ahead touchdown against the Titans last But he was, you know, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith's backup last year. And he didn't really get a chance to step up until week 18. But he essentially took over Devonta Smith's role as the ZG receiver. They kind of left Makai Lemon as the slot guy. And then Dontabian Wicks was still his typical X role. So obviously Cooper's not going to draw as many targets. as Devonta Smith, but it's still a key role in this passing offense. So in a game where they could be trailing, I mean, they're already like seven, eight point underdogs here. I'm expecting more passing. So I think Cooper has a good chance to find hands out once again this weekend. So I like him at plus 460.
00:04:00
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I could argue with you.
00:04:02
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:04:03
Speaker 3: That, that, that touchdown against the Titans was lucky. I don't think there was anything lucky about his touchdowns against the Rams. Like one of them, he just mossed the guy. Like it was very impressive. So it was really good to see how he's performing in that offense. And yeah, Brenton strange again, just a very solid look, especially given the wide receiver rotation in that offense. It's really hard to pinpoint kind of whose week it's going to be. But yeah, you don't really want to play anybody on the outside because they'll probably get shut down by Quinn Young Mitchell at that point. So yeah, All right, Brenton Strange, Darius Cooper, that is who Kerner is on for Eagles-Jaguars. We now move to Giants commanders. Grant, you've got this one. Who do you like to score in this game?
00:04:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, so on the Giants side, I don't understand why he's priced anywhere close to this high, but it's Isaiah Likely. I know he hasn't scored since week one.
00:04:50
Speaker 1: I don't care.
00:04:51
Speaker 4: I know that it's going to rain.
00:04:53
Speaker 3: I don't care.
00:04:53
Speaker 2: I don't see why a guy who has six red zone targets on the year Has, what, a 29% target rate or target share? Potentially without neighbors, although likely, I guess, is currently questionable. But I'm pretty sure he's going to play. There's lots of injuries on this game. We'll get more of them when we get to the commander side of things. But there's just no way he should be priced this high in this matchup without neighbors, potentially. Neighbors did not practice again on Thursday. So this is just a spot where... where he should get a ton of volume. The rain is not going to affect it that much. It's definitely going to have an effect on the passing game, but this still is a spot where his odds shouldn't be over plus 200. Then on the other side, this one was tough because, I mean, running backs all seem to be injured. Wide receivers all seem to be injured. Diggs didn't practice on Thursday. McLaurin didn't practice on Thursday. Obviously, Mariota's probably out. Their injury report is so incredibly long. I pretty much had no choice but to go with Jayden Daniels, which I don't mind his odds here. It's a plus 250. I mean, I know that last season he only had two touchdowns. He hasn't scored yet this season, but obviously injuries have been a huge problem. Since beginning of last year, there is the chance that he ends up getting injured in this spot. This is a guy with not even 23 full games played so far in the NFL, and he has eight rushing touchdowns. He's a great threat with his legs. They've If they want any chance of doing anything this season, they've got to do something here. So 250, a bit too high of odds for him. But also, I have no one else that I can reasonably say is going to play in this game.
00:06:35
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I was about to say the injury report looked like a grocery list, just as far as how long it was, like a CVS receipt. And then the other thing, too, about the weather, earlier in the week when people were starting to project kind of how this matchup would go, the weather changed. seem to be very dire but again as we go throughout the week it looks to be lightening up and I think the thing that helps too not a ton of wind it just looks to be like light showers so I think the weather is going to be pretty much negligible at this point but yeah Isaiah likely at plus 245 great price Jaden Daniels I mean it's not like he hurt his legs he you know he he's probably going to wear an arm brace you know just to make sure we don't see any more dislocations on live television so I like the both of these prices at 245 and plus.
00:07:13
Speaker 4: 250 so.
00:07:15
Speaker 3: All right, I'm going to move to the Texans-Titans game, one of the lower totals of the week. I'm sure people are going to be feeling good about maybe potentially taking it under around 38.5. In this game, though, I like Tony Pollard to score a touchdown. He's around plus 250. I think all the value in this game, especially when you dive into it, is kind of on the Titans side. And despite how heinous the Titans' offenses look this year, Pollard is still getting a ton of work. I was actually kind of shocked with how often they haven't been in the red zone, but then the fact that Tony Pollard is third in the NFL and carries inside the 10-yard line this year already. And there are six running backs with 10 plus carries inside the 10 yard line. Tony Pollard is the only one who doesn't have at least two touchdowns in that spot. And now we just, they're playing a defense that watched Javante Williams. He ran for three touchdowns on this defense last week. So I'm going to take Tony Pollard. I would even look at him maybe even for a first touchdown. So this next one though, guys, this one is a hear me out, boom or bust kind of pick. This is going to be the longest odds for an anytime touchdown pick that I have given out on the touchdown show. In five years. That is Brevin Jordan. That's who I'm going to take. Third string tight end on the Texans. So the Texans, they love this guy. Like he made his debut last week versus the Cowboys. Why you haven't heard of him much is because he's missed majority of the last two seasons with either a knee injury or other injuries as well. They still brought him back because he worked his way back through rehab. They love his leadership and toughness. He scored three touchdowns in his rookie year. Last time that I actually remember seeing him in game action, you guys might recall this. It was against the Browns in the playoffs in 2024. He ripped off a 76-yard touchdown. Now, he might not see the field much, but if the Texans get in the red zone, which I do expect against this Titans defense, and he's out there, he's likely getting the ball or at least going to get targeted. Two targets on four routes so far this year. And just given with the Texans passing offense, how much they go through Nico Collins, I'm not going down the road with Xavier Hutchinson. I don't want to look at Dalton Schultz, Jalen Knoll. That's all well and good. I think we've got to go long shot or nothing, so I'm going to take Brevin Jordan at 25-1 to score an anytime touchdown against that Titans defense. All right, let's move to a pretty fun matchup here. We've got the Vikings visiting the New Orleans Saints. And, Kerner, you got that one. What do you like for touchdown scores in that game?
00:09:42
Speaker 5: I'm going to go with Devon Bailey for the Saints at plus 330. He's just been really solid for them as their number two wide receiver and should continue to be, at least until their first-round pick, Jordan Tyson, returns from injury.
00:09:56
Speaker 4: That's still weeks away, probably.
00:09:58
Speaker 2: So....
00:10:00
Speaker 5: You know, Bailey had that nice touchdown catch at the end of the game, sort of in garbage time against the Falcons. Always kind of a sneaky touchdown bet, in my opinion. But this week, against the Vikings, where we already know they're going to blitz a shit ton.
00:10:13
Speaker 4: Under Brian Flores.
00:10:14
Speaker 5: Vele is the guy that actually sees the biggest increase in target rate when Shuck is facing a blitz.
00:10:21
Speaker 4: Because his target rate is.
00:10:23
Speaker 5: 15% when Shuck is facing four or fewer pass rushers. But once he's facing a blitz, it goes all the way up to 22%. So I think that they're going to expect the blitz. Vele could be the hot read more times than not. So especially kind of in the red zone. That gives them a little bit more upside here. And even though the Vikings do blitz, they are vulnerable to more explosive plays because of it. So I think Vele is a great play here at plus 330. And then on the Vikings side, I got to go with 5'10 Jalen Daniels, also known as Kyler Murray, at plus 475. He hasn't been using his legs as much with the Vikings, but that's understandable because... I mean, he got clocked on what his like second drop back ever and his debut for the Vikings. So I think he's still trying to get comfortable in the new scheme with his new team. But, you know, we're a few games in now. So I think he's going to start to lean on his legs. I'm sure Kevin O'Connell is kind of telling him we need you to scramble more. That's kind of why he's there. But I could see him being a little bit more scramble happy here, especially, you know, kind of in the red zone. So, You know, on the other side, the Saints, they faced three mall Santas and Lamar Jackson this year. Lamar managed, you know, 34 rushing yards on four attempts. Nobody else has scrambled on them. So it's really hard to parse how their defense is handled when a QB scrambles, but it's Kyler Murray. So I think if he gets a good scramble here, I think he's a solid bet at plus 475 to score.
00:11:58
Speaker 3: That's kind of where I was going with that too, because Kyler, like in the two games, So he's been at plus 310, plus 275, and plus 325. That was kind of the window where I was like, it's not good enough. Now we're seeing plus 475, indoor matchup. I love that price. And then Devon Bailey, we're all big fans of Devon Bailey around here at this point. So yeah, great picks by you, Kerner. Let's now move to Bengals at Dolphins. And Grant, seeing the first pick here, it looks like we're going right back to Old Faithful. What do you got?
00:12:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, the thing that's been going well since the beginning of last year, it's tight ends versus the Bengals, which are actually now the better matchup. But Bengals still a very good matchup. Gave up 16 touchdowns last year. They've already given up several this season to opposing tight ends. I know my aim is terrible. They're absolutely horrible. And I did not get a single target last week, but going up against the Vikings and how awful their entire offense looked outside of Gordon.
00:12:59
Speaker 3: I don't really care.
00:13:01
Speaker 2: He's running routes at second highest rate on the team. He only has a 10% target share, but the matchup here is one where I think the Dolphins could actually put up a touchdown or two, which doesn't happen too often for them. He has two targets so far in the red zone this season, which is second only to Malik Washington on the team. Obviously, without HN in there, they're going to be forced to pass ball a little bit more in the matchup. It's not a bad one overall. We're getting him a plus 500 here. So, odds just far too high for virtually any tight end versus the Bengals. And considering he's the second target on the team, that is not going to run as much and not going to use the running back out of the, in the receiving game as much here, far too high of odds. And then on the other side, much like the commander's game, I don't know who's going to play. I have no idea who's going to play over on the Bengal side of things. There's so many injuries. Chase may not end up playing. Higgins may not end up playing. I'm guessing at least one of them, potentially both, don't end up playing in this spot here. Mitchell Tinsley, a guy who we've seen put up some great, great jump ball passes. He can absolutely just F it. Throw him up there like Mike Evans type role in the red zone. He had two touchdowns last year in a very tiny role. Just 24 overall targets. He's the F it. He's up there somewhere. Just throw it to him. And if Chase isn't there and Higgins isn't there, he's going to get a lot of playing time. He's going to get a lot of volume. If one of them is gone without Yossi Voss in there, he's still going to get some decent playing time here. So you can find him at plus 310 at the moment. It's a bit too high. If you want, you can wait and hear where Chase and Higgins are at tomorrow or Saturday, even Sunday morning. But I'm guessing the closer it gets to game time, And the more news we have, if it looks like they're not going to play, his odds are only going to go down. So I'm just rolling with the year.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: Well, as a former friend of the show, Chris Rabon used to say, Mitchell Tinsley, professional touchdown catcher, I believe is what he would refer to. And I completely agree because in the two games last year that Jamar missed one, T. Higgins missed two. You can go look at the snap differences. Mitchell Tinsley basically playing double. The amount of snaps and routes run when one of those guys misses. You can go right to that New England game where T. Higgins missed that game. That's where Mitchell Tinsley caught that touchdown. I love that pick. And then, of course, set and forget it. Always taking the opposing tight end against the Bengals. It'll probably end up making you more profit than none by the end of the year. Okay, I've got Browns-Jets, two offenses that I did not feel very great about entering the season and I'm still kind of on the fence of how I actually feel about them, but we'll see. But I do think there are two guys that we can get for touchdown scores. On the Browns side, I think it's his turn. I'm taking Casey Concepcion at plus 320. It's my turn to take it. Kerner, I think, took it last week. I think Grant took it the week before. Again, just... I hate to use the term like he's due, but he just checks a lot of boxes. Three red zone looks so far, a red zone carry. He's running the second most routes on the team, leads the team in targets for route run. They're going to try to scheme up ways to make some space for him to make a play. I think as long as this Browns offense isn't a complete disaster, I like the value of what we're seeing on this side. So I'm going to take the rookie to get his first touchdown. Now this guy I bet last week and some, some would point to it as luck, but I kind of was like waiting for this kind of to happen. It's Isaiah Williams with the jets. He's around plus four 50. I took him at five to one last week and got rewarded with a 58 yard bomb over the top. And part of the reason why I was on him last week was just the injuries were piling up so much for the jets. Like, Adonay Mitchell wasn't playing last week. He's not practicing again this week. Mason Taylor might come back this week. But again, just a lot of injuries on the pass catcher front. And he's been running a route on 90% of dropbacks in each of the last two games. And I like the fact, too, that he's not going to be lining up outside as much at 53% in the slot so far through four games. That means that he'll probably likely avoid the Denzel Ward matchup, who I think is probably going to try to match up with Garrett Wilson as much as possible. And last week we saw the Browns give up a 12-year touchdown out of the slot to Roman Wilson. So I'm going to see if the Jets can take advantage of that again this week. So I like Isaiah Williams to score a touchdown against the Browns at plus 450. Football season is here, folks, and if you don't already have the Action Network app, now is the perfect time. Plus, to get the most out of the app, you'll want to be an Action Pro subscriber. It's only with Action Pro you get real-time pick alerts from the entire Action Network team of experts. You can access pro projections, which are powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team, plus a ton of other benefits. Right now, Action Network podcast listeners, you can save $ 20 off the annual price of Action Pro. Just go to actionnetwork.com slash pro, use code POD20. That's actionatwork.com slash pro. Use code POD20 for $ 20 off the annual price of Action Pro. Now, before we continue, here's a quick word from our sponsor, DraftKings.
00:18:10
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00:18:46
Speaker 3: You're watching week five of the Touchdown Show on the Action Network podcast, and we're going through all the games here to find our best anytime touchdown bets. We are now on Colts at Steelers. Kerner, you got this one. What do you like for touchdown props in this game?
00:19:04
Speaker 5: For the Colts side, I'm going to go with, look, Juan Treadwell at plus 600, really, you know, kind of a bizarre career where he was a first round pick 10 years ago. Hasn't really done much as a pro, but he made the 53 man roster and he's kind of been the Alec Pierce replacement ever since he went down. He's out there, you know, right around 75% of Daniel Jones dropbacks. And he made a couple of huge, big catches there. At the end of a couple games now to help them win. So they've been just sticking with him. Keenan Allen might return this week. His availability doesn't impact Treadwell at all. Again, you have Josh Downs, Keenan Allen, Tyler Warren all just running underneath. Treadwell is typically just running wind sprints, and if he's open, Daniel Jones will throw it. So I think he's a sneaky bet to catch a long pass here, maybe a touchdown. The one thing is they signed Darius Slayton a few weeks ago, and he's been a healthy scratch every week. If he's active, then I would kind of lower Treadwell's at least playing time a bit. But the fact that they've had Slayton and he's been a healthy scratch means, well, probably he's not like up to speed at the playbook, but also they're kind of pleased with what they've seen with Treadwell. So I think that's kind of a good sign for him. Either way, I do like him here at plus 600 when he's kind of in the Alec Pierce role as of now. And then on the Steeler side, pretty easy one for me. He scored for me last week, but it's Pat Firemuth at plus 300. Um, we already have Michael Pittman's already ruled out. Uh, so I think Firemuth and others, you know, get a boost. Uh, he has, you know, a pretty similar route tree as Pittman. So he might get a couple extra snaps, maybe an extra target without Pittman there, especially, you know, when they get the red zone. But I think the one thing the market's still not pricing in as much with Muth or as much as it should is he's the main call main ball carrier in the tush push. Now, you know, Connor Hayward is off to, um, The Raiders, he's their tush push guy now. So Booth, I think at some point he's going to get a one yard touchdown run. So at plus 300, I don't think that's being factored in enough. I have that in my model and I have this closer to plus 260 because obviously he's a threat for receiving touchdown as well. But I think at plus 300, we got to keep buying in on this guy.
00:21:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel like Google AI is like listening to our conversation or something, because while you were speaking, I just looked up Darius Slayton. And the first article that came up and said, Darius Slayton hasn't played in the last two weeks. Let him explain why. And I was like, what? Let Slayton himself explain? Yeah, exactly.
00:21:45
Speaker 4: What did he say?
00:21:46
Speaker 3: He said that it was basically he hadn't practiced enough and Shane Syken has to get him up to speed. So I was like, OK, well, you know, that makes sense. But but at the same time, Treadwell has been a perfect reclamation project for the Colts. Like I still like the price at six to one, because even, even in Slayton's prime, it's not like he was some sort of touchdown threat with the Giants. So, you know, I think at this point I still love the Treadwell pick, especially if you're getting it at six to one. All right, let's move now to Raiders at Patriots. Oh, this is a, this is a rematch from week one of last year. Grant, you got this game. Who did you like for touchdown scores in that one?
00:22:22
Speaker 2: I was going back and forth on which tight end to use for the Raiders, and I just couldn't get away from Brock Bowers. He's sitting around plus 145, and dude is just so heavily involved in this offense. So far, only played two games. In those two games, 14 targets and 11 targets. Touchdown in each. There's a spot here where he's going to continue to get just absolutely fed. He's the clear number one option. And this offense actually has a competent head coach offensively coaching him now. And a competent quarterback, although Gino Smith is competent this year, was not competent last year. And you can say the same thing vice versa for Kirk Cousins. But this offense is playing very well with Kubiak as a coach. And Bowers is just being absolutely force-fed. So even getting him at plus 145, I think there's some value on that. And on the other side, Drake made a score touchdown. I know that the hate on Drake May is absolutely through the roof. Granted, it went down a little bit after Buffalo losing last week, but he's still scrambling a lot. 23 rushing attempts so far on the season. There's been four rushing attempts by the Patriots, I believe, within the five-yard line so far this season. Two of those are Drake May. We would not have seen him very often at plus 450 in a matchup like this last year to score. I don't know why we're seeing it now. I think just the hate has gotten too bad and people are just kind of waving off what he did last week. I still think that he's a very good quarterback and we're going to see him. Maybe not what he was last year, but he's far too good of a Russian quarterback to be priced at plus 450 in this spot. So I'm rolling with that.
00:24:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the market just isn't adjusting because like last week he got tackled at the one. Had he scored that touchdown, we're not seeing plus 450 now. It's probably closer to like plus 320 in my opinion. But Brock Bowers, I mean, he has four end zone targets in two games. That already is the Raiders lead just through two games. And I don't see that stopping anytime soon, just given how dominant he is right now and against the Patriots who just checking the injury report. I think Christian Gonzalez is probably going to be out again this week too. So, uh, they're not probably going to be in a good spot to be able to defend, uh, uh, receiving threats like a Brock Bowers. Um, I have the, uh, bears Packers game. And, uh, these are two guys that, uh, I've tried each week. I'll just give you a peek behind the curtain. I try to find different angles. I don't want to just keep throwing up the same guy every week, but at the same time, when, if you're, they're going to keep showing me value and having a guy who's that involved in the offense, I think we have to go back to it. So Luther Burton is right now at plus two 40. Um, If the Bears are just going to run over teams every week, then we probably just need to avoid Bears pass catchers altogether. But if they actually start getting into a position where their run game isn't as efficient and they have to throw, then Luther Burton is my guy. I mean, 32% first read target share leads the Bears with six red zone targets. He's kind of playing that Amon Ross, St. Brown role in Ben Johnson's offense and the Packers defense, especially in the secondary, dealing with some injuries. There's also a little bit of a rivalry thing going with Luther Burden and Keyshawn Nixon. I don't know if you guys remember that smack talk that they had like last year, but. It's still very prominent, at least in the discussions about this game. So I'll take a guy who maybe has a little extra motivation to score a touchdown here given at plus 240. On the Packers side, though, this is a set it and forget it. Like Tucker Kraft, he's right now still around plus 250. He finally came alive in week four, scored his first touchdown. And I think this could be a good start of a run for Kraft because he's Each week, kind of the discussion, at least that he's been having with reporters, is that, oh, he's starting to feel a little bit better, starting to feel a little bit healthier. And you're seeing his snaps and routes run increased by each week. And now in week four, when he kind of started to look like he's starting to look like himself, he was targeted three times in the red zone, two in the end zone, one of those catching four touchdowns. So this is just too much volume in the red zone and just too high of odds at this point for Tucker Kraft. Like last year when he scored seven touchdowns over six games, You weren't getting better than like plus 150 by the time he was getting hurt. And given the matchups the Packers have coming up. So if Tucker Kraft scores this week, you probably won't see plus 200 again for at least a month because they've got the Cowboys, Panthers and Lions. All three of those teams rank top bottom 10 rather. In defense of DVOA versus tight ends this year, neither of those passing offenses have stopped much this year. So again, if Tucker's craft want to get ahead of the market here, if he scores again, you're not going to see plus 200 probably for another month. So now we're on to the 4 p.m. slate. So only three games for the 4 p.m.
00:27:12
Speaker 4: Slate.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: We each got one. This is the Broncos at Chargers. Kerner, you got this one. What did you want to pick for touchdown scores in that game?
00:27:21
Speaker 5: This one, I'm definitely going to go with a couple of long shots. And for the Broncos side, I'm going to go Troy Franklin at plus 650 because Pat Bryant's expected to miss some time with an ankle injury. At least he's doubtful this week. So we have to double check that he's ruled out. But if he's out, that's going to give all the wide receivers a boost this week. And I would say Franklin specifically should see the biggest boost, at least in terms of playing time and usage. So I think he's worth a fly here at like plus 650. And he's been really more of a downfield threat for them. So, you know, he's not a guy I'm expecting, you know, a contested catch in the end zone when they're in the red zone. But, you know, if he gets open deep, I could see him and his former college roommate. I know that's, Jill, you love when people bring that up to death, but it's true. So, you know, I could see them connecting for a long touchdown here for old time's sake, at least. So I like him at plus 650. And on the other side, it's a disaster. But I'm going to go with MVS at 12-1. Did you know that MVS is a receiver for the Chargers right now? You wouldn't know if you looked at the box score because he's yet to catch a pass for them. But last week when Ladd went down, he was out there running around on about 40% of Herbert's dropbacks. And with Ladd, questionable. I think Quinton's questionable. um Brennan's questionable everybody's questionable but Trey Harrison MVS so I think there's a good chance MVS could be out there like half of Herbert's drop back so you know he's probably going to be running a win sprint 90% of the time but you know Herbert has a cannon if MVS does get open I could see them connecting for a long touchdown here plus Broncos quarterbacks are both banged up uh Pat Sertan likely out this week. Riley Moss is questionable. He has a rib injury, so he might be out. So they could be pretty thin on the corners on the outside. So MVS, you know, I think crazier things have happened than him getting open for a long touchdown. So love the odds we're getting here at 12 to one.
00:29:31
Speaker 4: Why not?
00:29:32
Speaker 3: Well, I just wanted to make sure to see how many teams he has been on since the start of the 2024 season. This would be his fifth team in the last two seasons. And you remember like in 2024, like immediately made an impact, scored like four touchdowns in three games for the Saints. And then last year, didn't do much with the 49ers, played one game with the Steelers, ended up catching a touchdown against the Dolphins. So yeah, just a crazy career for mvs.
00:30:01
Speaker 4: He was on he's on your cowboys to start there i think right yeah but i mean.
00:30:05
Speaker 3: Yeah i think he well he got just when you got those like periphery guys like i just don't really account sometimes of whether or not they're on the final roster and yeah he's with mvs like at 12 to 1 what there's nothing wrong with that especially given uh the injury concerns right now on the charger side for pass catchers Okay, pretty good matchup here in the afternoon, Grant, featuring your Seattle Seahawks hosting the undefeated San Francisco 49ers. Touchdown scores. There's some value here, I think, and I think you are looking at... Why don't you just tell us?
00:30:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, starting off with the Seahawks. This is, by the way, going to be such a fun game. I mean, yeah, as a Seahawks fan, I'm scared of it, and I'm really looking forward to it. Starting off on the Seahawks side, A.J.
00:30:52
Speaker 4: Barner.
00:30:53
Speaker 2: Score touchdown, plus 310. We know this offense runs through the run game and through JSN, but with Price now out on injured reserve, don't know who's going to end up playing how much. Charbonnet may end up coming back. Who knows at this moment, but the running game, not quite as good without Price in there. So they may have to rely a little bit more on the passing game. 49ers offense, obviously, has been spectacular despite all their injuries this season. Probably going to put up a lot of points. This should be a back-and-forth game here. And Barner is one of the most heavily involved guys, especially in the red zone so far this season. Inside the five-yard line, two targets in one rush attempt where he did get a touchdown. He's also the guy that can do the push-tush in there and get one that way. Inside the 20, he's had five targets so far this season. So overall, he's a huge part of this offense. You're getting two high odds at plus 310. Don't forget what he ended up doing last year. Obviously had six touchdowns through the air, one on the ground. So this guy is a huge part of this red zone offense. And on the other side, I think Mike Evans into playing. I'm going with him right now. If he doesn't, you can always go to Debo. I mean, that offense is all over the place with the amount of injuries, but Mike Evans, always a massive red zone threat, always just going to get multiple balls thrown to me. If they're in the red zone has four targets so far in the year has multiple touchdowns. He's a guy that can go up against anyone and they'll just happily give kind of a, Devontae Adams' role is just, all right, throw it over to him instead of running. 210 is too high of odds in what should be a fairly high-scoring game. I know the Seattle defense is very, very good, but I think the 49ers are going to put up offense regardless. I really like him at plus 210 if he ends up playing. If he doesn't, Debo is kind of the last man standing there, him or Kittle, but I think Evans ends up playing here, and I like his odds.
00:32:43
Speaker 3: Well, while you were talking, I just had to go look up some historical odds for Mike Evans. And the last time that he closed with odds over plus 200, I mean, we have to go back to post-Tom Brady, pre-Baker Mayfield games, right? That's how far back we go now. It's before Baker Mayfield because since Baker's been there, at best you're getting around like plus 180. Now over to San Francisco in an offense that is probably even better than anything the Bucs have ever shown. You're going to get him in a specialist spot. Plus 210, very solid look. The fact that they're throwing that out there, yeah, it's almost like you have to kind of bet that when you're getting Mike Evans at that price. Last game before we get into the primetime games, Lions at Cardinals. unfortunately, uh, Trey McBride has been completely priced out. You can no longer get him, uh, anything over like plus one 20. Uh, so I'm going to go back to Marvin Harrison jr. I took him last week in my anytime touchdown preview. I know Michael Wilson has a lot more of the convincing receiver metrics, but again, uh, I think all Cardinals pass catchers are alive to get a was able to get that touchdown against the giants. And again, at plus 300 or better, I'm going to almost take this every time. I also think too, just there's a lot of reports of whether or not Marv could get traded, you know, at some time before the deadline. I think the Cardinals, if anything, they probably still want to showcase them a little bit more because right now the, the, the projected return is like a fourth round pick. And I'd imagine they would like to get a little bit more for their former fourth overall pick as a spot. So, And then on the Lions side, Kerner, I had to do it. I'm just going to take Isaac to slough. I mean, this one is pretty simple. All you got to do is look at the Lions touchdown score odds. You're going to see right at the top, you're going to see Jameer Gibbs at minus 450. So just as an FYI about that, if that closes at minus 450, that'll be a record of the highest or lowest odds, depending on how you look at it, for an anytime touchdown score in my five-year database. So automatically you're knowing that right now at the top, not a ton of value there. Sam Laporta, Jamison Williams. I mean, Jamo hasn't even scored a touchdown yet, and the best price you can get him is at plus 180. So I'm just telling you right now that it's hard to find value on the Lions side, but that's why I think Isaac Tisla, he's around plus 425. I think that's the guy you kind of have to set and forget at these prices because three red zone targets so far, two end zone targets, but no touchdowns yet. We know he has that highlight advantage. Touchdown catch, real. Everything that we saw in his rookie year, he had six touchdowns last year. Most of them were highlight grabs. The fact that you're getting it around plus 425, plus 450, that's kind of what we have to do now with the Lions, unless you want to do like Jameer Gibbs for two touchdowns at minus odds almost, which is just not worth doing at this point for touchdown props. So that's what I'm going to do. Marvin Harrison Jr. at plus 350 and Isaac Tesla at plus 450. Okay, let's move to Sunday Night Football. Now, instead of assigning a game to each of us, I think we'll just build a parlay for both Sunday Night Football and for Monday Night Football. So we'll start with Sunday Night Football. That is the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Atlanta Falcons. Now, Lamar Jackson is expected out for this game, so we will see Tyler Snoop Huntley starting for the Ravens. So regardless of that, I'm still going to go with Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews right now is around plus 260 to score an anytime touchdown. To me, that's just far too high of a price for– A quarterback that has targeted his tight ends quite a bit in his career. And Mark Andrews, still very much a focal point of the passing game. I think if Tyler Huntley is going to be throwing, especially near the goal line, Mark Andrews is going to be his best target. Grant, who do you like to score a touchdown for? Ravens at Falcons.
00:36:31
Speaker 2: I'm going with Austin Hooper to score a touchdown. He's been playing a decent amount of snaps every week this season. I think he's had no less than 23% of snaps. He's semi-involved in the red zone. They really haven't thrown the ball much in the red zone. I think on the season, he's actually tied outside of the running backs in most red zone targets at one, which is an absolutely wild stat considering how many points they've put up the last two weeks. Obviously, this offense runs very heavily through Bijan and through Ryan Robinson. But Hooper, I think, is the guy that I have the most value on. Obviously, I'm not going to Bet either of the running backs after the performance they just put on, their odds are way too low now. Or at least Bijan is. But Hooper at plus 900, a little bit of value there.
00:37:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if Bijan is just going to house a touchdown off every other carry, it's going to be hard to get some Falcons touchdown scores. That's all I'll say. But Austin Hooper, definitely heavily involved. Always in whenever we can find a way to fade Kyle Pitts. So I'm in with that. So Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, Carter, round out this parlay. Who do you like to score Ravens at Falcons?
00:37:45
Speaker 5: I'm going to go with B-Rob here. Brian Robinson Jr. at plus 240. Again, kind of piggybacking what Grant said. The market is fully aware of Brian Robinson Jr. now after his three touchdown game.
00:37:59
Speaker 4: On Monday Night Football. But I had written up in my.
00:38:02
Speaker 5: RB upside piece before the season started that I kind of expected him to take over the Algier role, which is kind of annoying for fantasy managers because he's going to be in a little bit more around the goal line. Kind of take some of that dirty work away from Bijan to keep him fresh, more importantly. But Brian Robinson, he's just been really good. And this Falcon offense has been way better with Michael Penix on their center. And they're extremely run heavy. So this is the kind of offense where... I wouldn't be shocked if we have multiple games this year, we're both running back score. So even though I don't love, love the price at plus 240, just kind of an investment in this offense, especially if, you know, the Ravens are without Lamar Jackson, it could be a leading game script against the Ravens, which you wouldn't expect, you know, heading into week one. So I think Brian Robinson, even though cat's out of the bag on him, I still think he's sneakier at plus 240.
00:38:54
Speaker 3: All right, so Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, and Brian Robinson Jr., not Bijan Robinson. If you parlay those three together, gentlemen, that's 100 to 1 right now at DraftKings. So I love this parlay right now, especially because I feel like a lot of people are going to be figuring out ways of how they invest in Bijan, figuring out ways to tell you that Kyle Pitts is finally due for a breakout. And I'm saying no. We're going Austin Hooper, Brian Robinson, and Mark Andrews. So I like that three pairing there. Monday Night Football, probably the game of the week. Bills at Rams. For this one... this one was a little tougher because, again, the value at the top is just very difficult to find any type of values. Like, you know, if you're looking at like Puka or Devontae or even Josh Allen, like they're all kind of steamed at this point. So I'm going to take Dalton Kincaid. He's around two to one. He hasn't scored since week one, but again, facing this kind of defense, I think this is a spot where he would be able to be a little bit more effective, especially with the Rams, who play a little bit more of a zone coverage, a little bit of single high. That's kind of more in Dalton Kincaid's wheelhouse. So I'm going to take Dalton Kincaid to get back on the scoreboard. That's who I like to score for Monday Night Football. Grant, who did you like?
00:40:05
Speaker 4: I'm going with Khalil Shakur.
00:40:06
Speaker 2: You can find him at plus 270. Right now, he's actually the leader in red zone targets overall. on this team with six so far this year. Moore being doubtful, I really doubt he plays. So that should mean a good amount of playing time. I mean, he got up to 76% snaps last week, 73% the week before. Obviously, he's probably the number one option outside of Kincaid in this offense at the moment, or at least in this passing offense. Obviously, you got Cook there that could take one in. Allen can take multiple in, apparently. But Shakira at plus 270 is a little bit too high of odds.
00:40:44
Speaker 3: All right, so we've got Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir. Are we going to put three bills on this parlay, Kerner, or are you looking at a Ram touchdown score to round out this parlay?
00:40:55
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll mix it up with the Rams pick here, and I'm going with Kyron Williams to score the first touchdown at plus 500. Always a good bet because, you know, not only is he a touchdown machine, even though he rotates heavily with Blake Corum, he usually gets opening drive to himself. And in these big games, they like to lean on him even more. So he could get the second drive as well. And even if Corham starts the second drive, if they do get in the red zone or closer to the goal line, could see Kyron check back in.
00:41:25
Speaker 4: So I think the first two drives, he might be out there in goal line packages.
00:41:30
Speaker 5: So always love Kyron's upside, but especially in these closer big games, they tend to lean on him even more. So give me Kyron to score the first touchdown plus 500.
00:41:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I for sure thought you were going to go Blake Corum. So you kind of threw me there for a loop.
00:41:46
Speaker 4: Not in these spots.
00:41:47
Speaker 5: No, I know when to not target my guy here.
00:41:51
Speaker 4: This is definitely one of those games. So he's going to score three touchdowns.
00:41:55
Speaker 3: All right, so if Kyron scores the first touchdown, we're unlocked because then we've got Khalil Shakir to score a touchdown and Dalton Kincaid to each score a touchdown. For Monday Night Football, you put those three together. That probably comes out to just around 70 to 1 touchdowns. at DraftKings. Okay, guys, I want to do one more parlay before we get out of here. We did Sunday Night Football. We did Monday Night Football. Before we get out of here, let's give our favorite touchdown scores for Week 5, presented by DraftKings. It could be from any game, and then we're going to parlay them together over on DraftKings. Kerner, why don't you start us off?
00:42:29
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going to go with Pat Framuth here at plus 300 because he gets a boost with Michael Pittman, officially ruled out already. He has a second-most red zone targets just behind Jalen Warren. So he's always a threat inside the red zone. Aaron Rodgers, you know, typically loves targeting his top tight end, but I think the market is still kind of underpricing the fact that he is the main ball carrier in their tush push. So I'm expecting at least once this year, he gets a one yard touchdown run as well as having upside as a pass catcher in the red zone. So give me a move at plus 300.
00:43:06
Speaker 3: All right, Pat Fryermuth to start us off. Grant, where are you going for your favorite touchdown score of Week 5?
00:43:12
Speaker 2: I'm going with Isaiah Likely. I already talked about it extensively how I have no idea how he's priced so high. Potentially no neighbors. He's the by far go-to target in this passing offense here. I'm not worried about the rain. Plus 245, far too high.
00:43:27
Speaker 3: All right, well then I'm going to round it out then. This wasn't a game that I was assigned, but this was just one that I'm not passing on this at this stage. And that is Justin Jefferson coming back this week playing the Saints. Going through injury reports, it looks like he has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday. He says that he intends to play. If he's going to play, then he's going to be good to go. We know that he's going to probably see a 30% target share. I think with Kyler Murray, that'll add another element to him to be able to get open down the field. And then, of course, this is just a nice little fun factor about this. This is the first time the Vikings have been back to play New Orleans in New Orleans. So this is actually going to be a little bit of a homecoming for Justin Jefferson. Not to say that I'm only betting it just because of that. Jenna can do enough on his own. But the fact that you got that extra motivation playing in front of your hometown, I don't want to pass on that. So when you parlay Pat Friermuth, Isaiah Likely, and Justin Jefferson, that parlay comes up to just under 34 to 1. at DraftKings. So those are our favorite touchdown scores of the week presented by DraftKings. You absolutely want to tail these over on DraftKings because all customers get a profit boost every game day. Download the DraftKings Sports app. Use promo code ACTIONNETWORK when you sign up. DraftKings, the crown is yours. All right, that'll do it for us here on the Touchdown Show for Week 5 presented by DraftKings. My thanks to Sean Kerner and Grant Niefer. Thank you guys again for joining me. Don't forget, BetSync is back in the Action app. You can go check that out. Also, sign up for annual subscription. You can get $ 20 off of Action Pro by using the code POD20. So make sure to subscribe to the podcast. You won't miss anything for the rest of the NFL season. So I want to thank you again for tuning in to the Action Network podcast. We'll see you next week. Phone check.
00:45:22
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