Episode 95: Scouting Physicality & Body Type

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Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Future Projection. This is episode 95.
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Speaker 2: Of the show.
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Speaker 1: I'm Carlos Claus, joined as always by Ben Badler.
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Speaker 2: What's going on, Ben?
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Speaker 3: Stretch run, postseason baseball coming up, and fall ball too. I feel like fall ball is becoming less, certainly a lot less players in the draft, going into their draft year. High school players are playing fall ball, but whether it's seeing them, seeing underclass players, who I actually think fall ball is getting more, maybe not more important, but it's becoming, we'll see a lot of underclass players, a lot of 2026 players playing in Jupiter next month because the new recruiting rules where coaches can't talk to players, they can't make offers to players until August 1st of their, going into their junior year. So yeah, okay, like a lot of players already committed before then, before the rule changes. but we just put up a new 2026 ranking, you know, as we're recording this today on September 12th, um, 150 players, at least I think 75 or 80 of them or something like that are still uncommitted. And it's a lot of the top players. So like, even if you just look at most, you know, like an LSU or, uh, Vanderbilt, you know, any, you know, big, big time program for the most part, their recruiting class is still pretty light. Cause there's a lot of a lot of top names still out there who I think want to get seen and are looking to play, play this fall some more.
00:01:32
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:01:32
Speaker 1: So you're expecting maybe more, more talent at an event like Jupiter for the underclassmen than, than typical because of that. It is always a question of like how many of the top current year draft prospects will be at that event after going to a ton of events throughout the summer.
00:01:46
Speaker 2: A lot of those players shut it down.
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Speaker 1: A lot of those players are multi-sport athletes. A lot of the pitchers have just kind of hit their self-imposed inning limits by then. So, yeah, if there are more juniors at that event who are really exciting players and highly ranked on your board, that'll be fun for you as I'm chasing down the 2025 guys who you're kind of over and done with at this stage.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, because I think a lot of the agents tell their players who are going into their 2025s, going into their draft year, especially for the pitchers, most of them just say, hey, shut it down. If a guy's been hurt earlier in the year or just missed time on the circuit, okay, they'll still go play and There's still a good number of position players who will still be there, but the quality of pitching in Jupiter that we'll see this year, that we saw last year, compared to what it was five, ten years ago, I think is not the same when guys were just going out there, pitching deeper into the fall with fewer advisors or agents telling them to just shut it down.
00:02:49
Speaker 1: I think that's also true of the Cape Cod League and a lot of summer baseball leagues. A lot of the pitchers are coming off seasons with their teams in the spring where they've thrown a lot of innings. And I think a lot of the development for pitchers is just happening off the field in labs, either with strength gains or pitch design. And a lot of coaches increasingly seem to want their arms to either just not throw in general or work on specific things away from those college summer leagues. So It's really to a point where I don't know how much stock to put in summer performance, like getting a large collection of really talented players in the Cape Cod League I think is still pretty valuable, but it's hard just given where the draft falls in the calendar, how much roster turnover there is. Given that, it's hard to assess really the overall depth of talent on the mound that those hitters are facing. I mean, the wood bat track record is really valuable, but I would be shocked if the level of talent in the Cape and other college summer leagues today in the last few years is the same as it was 15, 20 years ago.
00:03:50
Speaker 2: It seems pretty different.
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Speaker 1: And in that regard, it's similar to kind of some of the things we're seeing at the high school level as well.
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Speaker 3: Do you think it's coaches also trying to keep their players away from other college coaches and going saying, Hey, don't go to the Cape. Cause for some, but really the ulterior reason is we don't want you to end up at some other school.
00:04:10
Speaker 1: I mean, I've heard that specifically with a few teams and a few coaches. So I have to imagine that that is the case, but also like, if you're a pitcher and you just came off throwing 50 innings or so in the spring, like that's a decent workload for, for young players. If depending on like how much you've thrown in the past, you think there is something to like shutting it down. There's fall baseball where, where players are going to ramp up and get some reps in as well. So at a certain point you, you just can't pitch from February through, I don't know, what are we going through October? Um, you got to shut it down at some point. Um, so I don't really, I don't think it's a bad thing. Um, What I do think is a bad thing maybe is that there are fewer scouts this fall scouting up all these players, it seems like. I've heard from a number of scouts and heard of a number of teams this fall who are cutting scouting jobs. I've heard from some scouts specifically. I've heard rumors from other scouts about just a number of jobs that are being cut. Hopefully they're refilled. It does seem like a lot of teams are kind of just cutting their staffs in general this this is kind of the time of year where a lot of contracts run out and these changes happen. But I've heard from a number of different scouts so far this year that they feel like the perception among at least the amateur scouting industry is that this fall has been particularly brutal for lost jobs in scouting.
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Speaker 2: And it really just sucks.
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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously a lot of what we do at Baseball America is driven through scouts, talking to scouts, getting their opinions on players, trying to see prospects and see the game through their eyes. Our entire draft lists are built on the consensus of scouts throughout the industry. Like that is where I think a lot of the value of our, our lists. And so therefore like BA as a whole comes from just valuing the opinions of scouts. And the fact that we seem to always be in this position where teams are cutting scouting jobs and making areas bigger and being more reliant on data is really frustrating to me. But there's no real way to, it's very hard to track. Like a lot of these jobs aren't posted officially. Like you can sometimes not even see like who teams have hired for them on their like staff websites. Like you can see the front office guys, but a lot of the times they're not listing all the scouts. The contract details are, are obviously a lot more private than.
00:06:24
Speaker 2: Like the players.
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Speaker 1: So it's just something that is a lot harder to track the specifics of, but I just wanted to like voice some frustrations of the scouting community on this show because I this year seems like this feels like the worst year since like COVID when a lot of people were either laid off or furloughed and things were really tough for obviously outside reasons, but it's annoying. I'll say when teams seem to think that they they're like smart enough to pivot away from scouts and they can rely on just more data or more analysts. Um, I hope those teams that, that cut a bunch of scouts and don't think they need them, um, pay the price for it in the draft with, with other teams having more information on players that I think is super valuable. So It just kind of sucks, and I hate this time of year because of that, Ben.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, contracts for scouts and front office officials typically run through the end of the season, so through the end of October. So this is always a tough time of year for a lot of scouts because at least the teams that I think do it, if you want to call it the right way, will give those scouts a couple months' heads-up notice and saying, hey, your contract runs through. The end of October, we're just letting you know a couple months in advance. We're not planning to renew your contract and bring you back, which basically means we're firing you. But at least you have a couple months heads up now to look for a new job when teams are hiring people. Hopefully, like you said, some of these positions are just being eliminated. But in other cases, someone can get a job somewhere else. when teams are hiring. Whereas if you wait to do it until, you know, the very end of October, they don't have an opportunity or as much of an opportunity to find a job elsewhere. Is your sense that a lot of these jobs are on the, the domestic amateur side or more.
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Speaker 2: On the pro side?
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Speaker 1: I think for me, that probably like a selection bias, like a lot of the, a lot of the scouts I'm talking to in general are on the domestic amateur side.
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Speaker 2: And so I'm going to hear more about those jobs being lost. than other areas.
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Speaker 1: I haven't heard specifically on the pro side, but I do think like the pro side has probably been hit harder in recent years than the amateur side, just because like how many teams are even scouting triple-A baseball at this point, just because they feel like, like most teams.
00:08:42
Speaker 3: Feel like the video and.
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Speaker 1: With data, like there's a lot less like that you need.
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Speaker 3: There's still people. Yeah. There's still people whose jobs are to evaluate those players, but it's, you can do it in a different way to scout triple-A, double-A. you know, even down to low A players today that, you know, you couldn't do five or 10 years ago that you can just do it in a different way. So different people are doing that job in a different way.
00:09:07
Speaker 1: The one thing that I think is always crazy, just from my vantage point for the draft is like hearing from teams who have gone further away from like valuing the input of their own scouts will also use third party lists. I know that a number of teams have like our draft rankings are involved somewhat in their process. I don't know the degree to what, which it's rated or weighted, excuse me, but the fact that there'll be teams who are at.
00:09:36
Speaker 2: Least based on the way the scouts talk about it.
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Speaker 1: Not really listening too much or putting a lot of stock in what their own scouts say, but they're, they're valuing a list that is driven and created by those very scouts. It just seems like a weird way to operate. Like you're, you're going around like, like you're, You could just go directly to your Scouts to get the information that I'm trying to get from them to build our list in the first place.
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Speaker 2: It's, it's this very odd process for a lot of teams.
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Speaker 1: Um, like I, I just, I guess I don't get how teams would put value on a list that is created by talking to the very scouts that they seem to be discounting.
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Speaker 2: More and more.
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Speaker 1: Um, and to be clear, this is not all teams and some teams really do. value their own scouts and value scouting in general and still invest in it and still have like reasonably sized areas for their, for their scouts to, to succeed in. Um, and, and there are some teams that don't care at all about industry consensus and it won't really value our list, um, to one degree or another, but it always is just surprising to me when I hear that from a scout who like, yeah, I'm only like going to see this guy cause he's on your list.
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Speaker 2: And I'm like, that's just so odd for that to happen.
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Speaker 3: Well, I think the idea behind putting a public list in a team's internal model is, okay, well, we're going to have a wisdom of the crowds approach almost to it where, okay, we know Baseball America or if it's MLB.com, wherever. We know they talk to a ton of people throughout the industry. So, okay, we have our, you know, maybe our area scout, regional cross-check or national cross-check, maybe our Maybe our scouting director has seen a guy this spring, maybe not, whereas Baseball America has probably talked to 20 different teams about this one player. So, okay, we'll implement that into our model and weight it to whatever amount it is, if a lot of the people who work there even know how much it is. But my feeling is, yeah, all right, that's fine to do, but it's better to have, if you want, diversity of opinions and diversity of looks, uh, and, and to have a greater volume of information and inputs, then you should hire more people. I mean, we've talked about this on.
00:11:59
Speaker 2: Previous episodes where I.
00:12:01
Speaker 3: Would hire, you know, if, if I were, if I were to make myself scouting director slash owner of a team.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, sadly, I don't know that the scouting director has much of a say. I think he gets handed down the budget and kind of has to figure out how to use it.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would hire more scouts. I think a lot of the area scouts are stretched thin, especially the way that MLB has pushed back the draft from early June to now mid-July, where I think a lot of scouts in the summer are just torn in so many different directions trying to keep up with the current year's draft, which is still going on. Guys are popping in the Cape. High school players are still doing workouts, things like that, or still playing their high school seasons, at least in some of the colder weather states into mid-late June. But then you're also trying to keep track of the following year's players when the summer is so important for some of these players. And you don't really have, for a lot of teams, they don't get a lot of underclass looks at these players. So it ends up being a lot of surface level looks at the, at, and I'm just, I mean, I'm just talking about the high school players now. So, you know, who, you know, certainly the draft. Yeah.
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Speaker 1: Who only count up like 20% of the draft at this point.
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Speaker 3: Right. Which is also, I think, uh, uh, a reason why teams are probably eliminating scouting positions, because if the draft is so college heavy, there are a lot more, uh, video tools and data and yeah ways you can approach the draft without in-person scouting for for college players at least for you know players at the the top programs.
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Speaker 2: Yeah it's frustrating um but it's definitely annoying.
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Speaker 1: I don't really have too much more to add about it other than that it's annoying to hear all the time but you want to talk about some more fun.
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Speaker 3: Stuff uh yeah that would be great.
00:14:04
Speaker 1: We got some things on the docket today to chat about. I want to talk about JJ Weatherholt at some point. I think the Major League Player of the Year race is interesting. I also wanted to revisit our 2024 draft teams that yourself, me, and Peter Flaherty drafted at the beginning of the year for 2024. But you had some maybe general scouting conversation you wanted to have around scouting bodies or just looking at frames of players. So why don't you throw that out there and we can get into that conversation.
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Speaker 3: Yeah. You know, it's, you know, we're putting together, we just put together a 2026 update, putting together a 2025 ranking update coming up later this month. And obviously it's prospect handbook season two. So just getting a lot of feedback from different scouts throughout the industry on players. And I think especially for high school players, body type comes up a lot because these guys are not physically mature yet, or at least they, you know, you don't want them to be in, in a lot of cases you want some room for growth and strength projection.
00:15:08
Speaker 2: You want some future projection. Yeah.
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Speaker 3: Yeah. One could say, one could say that. Um, but then I, I don't know. Sometimes I feel like guys get criticized too much for, for body type. Um, I think maybe especially the, how do I put this? The the fatter players. It's like just, or.
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Speaker 1: The Huskies or I think loafs is a term we used a few years ago. I think Keegan was a big fan of throwing loaf on players.
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Speaker 2: Yeah.
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Speaker 3: The, the wider, wider build guys. And I think there's obviously fair concern there where, okay, like, you know, you're looking at a, you know, all right, is this guy going to play shortstop? Well, okay. He's got, you know, really big lower half. Okay. He has the, hands and actions to play there right now or to, to play in the infield. But, um, just looking at the way his body is, is built, is he going to stay at shortstop long-term as he gets bigger, as he gets thicker, as he gets wider? Uh, all right. Like I think those are fair, but, uh, sometimes I think it's, we, we make too much of, of body type, especially for, um for hitters like if if a guy can really really hit i think that some some of those guys can get pushed too far down the list sometimes when there's a body or even sometimes i would say perceived athletic concerns when a guy might actually be pretty athletic he just doesn't have an athletic looking.
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Speaker 1: Body yeah cole messina from last year's draft class is a good recent example of this he he is a very big guy and he doesn't look like he's a great athlete, but he's actually like a pretty impressive athlete in terms of his jumping ability, his moving ability, how, how fast he is for his size.
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Speaker 2: Um, but yeah, I think that's an interesting call.
00:17:10
Speaker 1: Are there like specific players either in the past or right now that you think are getting too much of a knock for their size that you think of just their skills are more than enough to make up for it. And it's not really an issue because I do think that, I mean, body type really is important. Like, How much you can project on a player strength gains, um, power gains for hitters, velocity gains for pitchers. I think a lot of that does come down to like how much more mass are you going to be able to add on your frame when you're talking about like projecting players out, where are they going to be playing defensively six years in the future? Um, that impacts their value significantly if you move down the defensive spectrum. So being able to have confidence in where the body is heading and being able to project on it and just understand how that's going to change the profile, how that's going to change the upside, or maybe cap the upside in certain ways. On the opposite end of the spectrum too, I think it probably can be really easy to project strength gains for really thin players, but there are just some body types who will consistently struggle to add mass and add strength Michael Mercado and Braden Shoemaker are two examples that I always think of as guys who, who are just like super lean Braden Shoemaker for three years at Texas A & M never really gained any weight. And even into pro ball, those were the concerns. Like, is he going to be able to one, add more strength to tap into some more power and then to just add enough mass to where he's, he's durable and he's holding up over a full pro season. Because if you're like a super, super thin, super lanky guy, I mean, 160 games of baseball every single day, it takes a toll on the body. And so going to the opposite end of the spectrum, I think is important to not just like the guys who might be a little huskier, um, getting overlooked, but maybe, maybe too optimistically projecting strength on a player just because he's thin. Like if you have a really thin frame on top of just being skinny, I start to wonder like, okay, what, what's the sort of mass you're even going to be able.
00:19:13
Speaker 2: To add at like a peak physicality.
00:19:14
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:19:16
Speaker 3: I think of like, um, certain like there's certain guys are just real narrow shoulders and kind of stick figure type bodies and yeah like I always remember Carlos Tochi who signed with the Phillies out of Venezuela this probably is too many years ago I don't know how many people even know that name now.
00:19:33
Speaker 1: But I've got another one from last year um Dason Hill left-handed pitcher who oh man who drafted Dason Hill he is a guy who I think had a good offseason and added a little bit of strength and got stronger uh twin second rounder But he also is one of those body types where I had some... scouts wonder like yeah like he is he is so thin to where i do wonder like how much ultimately is he going to put on so that would be one as well that you guys can just go see video of him he's a pretty thin guy.
00:20:01
Speaker 3: Yeah but then on on the other hand we have guys come through like like moises by asteros with the cubs is um i actually think is just seeing him in person this year just at the futures game thought he looked better than um than than he had previously but he's i mean what is he listed five seven 230 something pounds so like okay now like i i get it too like all right as an amateur player and credit to the cubs they gave him a lot of money as an amateur player out of venezuela i mean he wasn't He always had a big body and you were concerned it was just going to get too big and like, okay, is he going to get too heavy to be able to catch? But that's when you're looking at a player when he's, you know, 15, 16 years old, as he keeps moving up the ladder and he keeps hitting. And I actually think he can catch. I don't see why he can't at this point. At a certain point, I mean, it took a while for us to get him into the, top 100 prospects, which he is now. But I think when you have that kind of back control and you can impact the ball the way that he can and track pitches the way that he can and manage at bats the way that he can and hit the way that he has hit as a 20-year-old now, doing it both in the lower levels and now at the upper levels. I mean, tell me what's not going to continue to work with that against major league pitching. Cause you can't just say, oh, well he's, um, you know, his body type isn't well, why, why isn't it? Why as a hitter, would it not work if, if there's some re if there's some flaw in his swing or something about his offensive game, or if he's a disaster behind the plate, that's a different question.
00:21:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I think that.
00:21:56
Speaker 1: You kind of hit on the biggest question for me. Like I don't hitting is such a skill driven part of the game. Um, but I'm not, I don't really get too concerned about that piece of it, but I do think the biggest question is like, if you are that big and you have those questions defensively or about your body can hold up, or if you can move well enough to receive at a, like a threshold just to be behind the plate and not kill your team. Like for guys like that, it does seem like it always happens with catchers specifically. You're going from the most valuable defensive position to the least valuable defensive position is typically catcher. If you can't catch, you're moving to first base. That is a massive swing in value when the bat's not changing at all. I guess the threshold for what you need to do offensively changes so significantly based on what position you're playing that it can turn you from being an above average regular to a.
00:22:52
Speaker 2: Bench player, essentially.
00:22:54
Speaker 1: I think that is really the most important piece of it for catchers specifically. If you have a lot of confidence in In the hitting ability and the operation in the box, I'm not too concerned about a bigger body. There are plenty of fat guys who are great hitters. For me, it's just where you're going to be able to play and profile with that bat.
00:23:13
Speaker 3: Kyle Schwarber was drafted as a catcher. Pablo Sandoval came up as a catcher. Two guys who could just always really hit and hit with power. Sandoval obviously had extreme hand-eye coordination skills. to be able to hit the way and also throw the way that he can I think with both arms so.
00:23:32
Speaker 1: I mean how differently would we talk about Kyle Schwarber or think about his career if he was just like a fringy catcher but an everyday catcher or whatever whatever catchers who play regularly I don't know if they count as everyday any catchers anymore but a primary catcher for a team he would be thought of a lot a lot better than than what.
00:23:49
Speaker 2: He is now you don't think he's pretty highly thought of or I'm just saying he would be thought of even more highly.
00:23:56
Speaker 1: I think there are probably plenty of people who don't like Kyle Schwarber's game, but you're taking a left fielder and you're, you're taking his offense and you're putting it a catcher, a guy with what, five, six, 30 plus home run seasons. And he's your catcher that just, that just raises the level of offense your lineup is going to produce. Cause you'll get some other, some other fat guy in left field who can also bang instead of whatever catcher has been in his lineup for his career. I mean, JT Romito is no slouch, but. just in general, I think the value you get from putting that, that offensive profile behind the plate is significant. Yeah.
00:24:30
Speaker 3: And it's, it's easier for, you know, to sit and say this about guys who, you know, once they're already in the minor leagues, once they're in pro ball, you know, you have more of a track record that you feel comfortable with them being able to hit. Whereas if you're an international scout going into Mexico and you're watching Alejandro Kirk play, when he's an amateur player, like, yeah, I get why he signed for, you know, 30 grand or whatever his bonus was, was a smaller bonus signing. Cause you look at him and you're like, eh, I don't know if this is going to work. I don't know if it's going to hold up as a catcher, but the more, the more you see them in pro ball, uh, the less I put very little weight, so to speak on, uh, I mean, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a guy who people always had body concerns on. I know we always had him as the number one prospect everywhere. He played number one international prospect, Appalachian League, when that still was in professional baseball in the minor league system. Every league he played on. So I don't want to say he was underrated, but just another example of, all right, let's not get so hung up on the body when he has. unbelievable hitting ability, bat speed, strike zone control, power to go with it. I think we can make sometimes too much of body concerns once guys have more of a proven track record in pro ball. We can look at the actual tools and skills that they bring to the table.
00:26:12
Speaker 2: I think that makes sense.
00:26:14
Speaker 1: Having less concern about a body specifically as a player gets older makes sense just because I mean, you kind of know what the body's going to look like. It's not going to change as significantly.
00:26:23
Speaker 2: The older you get. What about like, like how valuable do you think it is at a, at a young age?
00:26:26
Speaker 1: Like you're watching a lot of 14, 15, 16 year old players, seeing players change pretty rapidly.
00:26:32
Speaker 2: You're having to.
00:26:35
Speaker 1: Make your best guesses about what this player is going to look like 10 years in the future. I imagine at that level, it's something where it means a lot more to you.
00:26:43
Speaker 2: I would, I would think. Yeah.
00:26:45
Speaker 3: That's where you get to players who are maybe more more of the early physical mature player, that's where I get a little bit more hesitant with, with those guys. So you have guys who are, you know, when they're 15 or 16 or, or even 17, a little bit closer to their, their draft year, who, especially for a pitcher. Okay.
00:27:08
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:27:08
Speaker 3: He's throwing, you know, really hard right now. He's already throwing 94 miles an hour and he's 16 years old or 17 years old, but he's, you know, six foot one, 220 pounds. Like he's already just bigger, bigger and stronger, more physically mature than his peers. Whereas the player who's, you know, six foot three, 180 pounds, long arms, lean, everything is free and easy. A lot of arm speed, especially, but maybe he's topping out at 90, 91. He's got more feel for spinning the ball. Like I'll bet on that player typically more so than I will the guy who's a little bit more, who just kind of popped a little bit earlier in his physical maturity process.
00:27:57
Speaker 1: There are a couple of players in this 2025 class who I think are already standing out in that way as like players who developed a little bit earlier and made names for themselves as underclassmen. And I think, you know, even for the hitting side, there is a tendency for players who are a little bit more developed to advance a little bit quicker to get stronger. Um, and you can take advantage of pitchers who really don't have a lot of velocity at a young age without really developing a great feel for hitting I'd say. And so like your power and your impact and your bat speed maybe pops at a young age and is impressive. Um, but because you physically matured a little bit earlier, um, when the guys catch up to you during your draft year, your skills or your, your less polished skills compared to some of your peers who weren't quite as physically developed, um, start to catch up and then Then it's a matter of like, are you still making adjustments?
00:28:47
Speaker 2: Are you still growing? Or were you just getting the advantage of being a little bit bigger and stronger before your peers?
00:28:54
Speaker 1: That's happened a lot with hitting prospects in high school over the years. Just the famous or semi-famous guys who freshman and sophomore year were just bigger than everyone, bigger and stronger.
00:29:04
Speaker 3: And then.
00:29:06
Speaker 1: Once you're facing 90 mile per hour plus consistently, your warts maybe in the profile start to show a.
00:29:14
Speaker 2: Little bit more.
00:29:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely saw a lot of that this year from the 2025s. Guys who were, and I still think some of them are really good players, but really struggled a lot this summer. But yeah, certainly for hitters too, where you see guys who have, who are just big and strong at a young age and have a lot of power. But I think especially if they are strong, but they kind of have all, maybe a jacked up swing and a lot of holes. that you can already.
00:29:41
Speaker 1: Get away with that when you're not facing premium stuff and you don't really need an approach you just kind of need some semblance of hand-eye coordination bat speed and strength and you'll get away with it but against like once pitchers are starting to throw 90 your your margin for error starts to shrink a little bit.
00:29:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can hit mistakes, hit bad pitching, but once the velocity gets better, the breaking stuff gets better, and you are strong at a young age, but you don't have that adjustability in your swing. Sometimes, too, it's a pitch recognition issue where it doesn't hurt you all that much if you are poor at recognizing pitches when you're 15 years old because what do you have to recognize at that point? Everything. Nobody's.
00:30:26
Speaker 1: Everything looks pretty similar, yeah.
00:30:28
Speaker 3: A bunch of.
00:30:29
Speaker 2: Cement mixers, a bunch of fastballs in the low.
00:30:32
Speaker 3: 80s, yeah. Yeah, so it's not going to hurt you there, but as the speed of the game gets faster, as the breaking balls get better, then that starts to get more exposed. So that is where, just in terms of body type, where it's like high school power. I mean, it's good to have bat speed, obviously. It's great to have bat speed. It's good to have power. But again, that guy who's, you know, 6'2, 220 pounds as a 16-year-old, you know, the same or a similar player who's 6'2, 180 pounds, has a better swing, has better contact skills, better strike zone judgment, but just doesn't have the same kind of power now, you know, I'll typically bet on the latter player. But, you know, then there are guys, and, you know, to be determined what's going to happen in pro ball, but like Daniel Cuvette, who was in the, what, 2023 class out of high school in Miami, went to Miami this year as a freshman and was one of the best freshmen in the country. And he was a guy who, as a young hitter, and still young, he's going into his sophomore season.
00:31:43
Speaker 2: He's 20 this year, yeah.
00:31:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, but he's always stood out because he's had huge, huge raw power, but a lot of swing and miss and some pitch recognition concerns there. So, you know, he didn't get drafted. I forget if he got drafted, but just, you know, didn't sign.
00:31:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was a 17th round pick and didn't sign by the Pirates.
00:32:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, yeah, he wasn't like the, you know, higher end priority guy for teams out of high school. But now he looks, you know, he's been having a phenomenal season. And then you look at a guy like, you know, in Texas this year, Lucas Franco, or for next year, I should say, shortstop, who has that, you know, that body type that, that you dream on. He has that really good swing. Everything is really loose and fluid. And I think he does do a good job of recognizing pitches and controlling the strike zone. So we've been really high on him. And I know a lot of scouts who've been pretty high on him for the last couple of years now. But again, a guy who's been a little bit inconsistent at the plate throughout the summer where, you know, you could see him being a first round pick next year. It wouldn't surprise me. Could also see him being a guy who ends up getting to campus next next year so um.
00:32:55
Speaker 2: Because yeah i know situation maybe yeah i think.
00:32:59
Speaker 3: In his case yeah he just hasn't put on the the strength maybe that some people would like to see there's a lot of cases like that too going back to guys we talked about the kind of a thinner thinner frames like oh i think he's going to get bigger and stronger. And once he layers on that strength, everything's going to take off.
00:33:15
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I think even, even Jackson holiday and Justin Crawford to certain extents are players who, who scouts were looking at their bodies and saying, Hey, like, like look at the frames now, look how thin they are now. We're expecting them to add more weight.
00:33:28
Speaker 1: Look at their parents, look like the athletic foundation they have in, in Jackson holiday. I think in high school added some really good strength. And we saw those dividends being paid pretty quickly. Justin Crawford still looked pretty lean, but even this year, I think he's starting to tap into some of that power that we've always seen with him kind of in batting practice. I don't know exactly what the frame is looking like now, but he wouldn't be, it wouldn't be too surprising for me to see Justin Crawford adding still a little bit more strength the next few years.
00:33:57
Speaker 2: What is he 20 now? I could still see him packing on a little bit more strength.
00:34:01
Speaker 3: Would you put CJ- I was going to say, would you have put C.J. Abrams into that category when he was in high school?
00:34:07
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
00:34:08
Speaker 1: For me, I thought of him as a guy who would always be barely lean, I think, like Bobby Wood Jr. I mean, the amount of strength he added was more than I expected to, and I think that was a really early glimpse for me of seeing how quickly a body can change. But I never thought of C.J. as a guy who could fill out and add a ton of power and strength. So, no, I think he would probably be more in that kind of lanky lean mold for me, like just thinner framed guy. But here he is hitting 18 and 20 homers back to back. That's pretty solid. Did you think of him as a guy who would add a lot of strength moving forward? I thought he was going to add to some players.
00:34:52
Speaker 3: He was a guy who, yeah, he's always a wiry athlete who I thought showed some sneaky power for somebody who was such a wiry, I always expected him to be more hit over power, but I always thought he had a chance to layer on some more strength. I actually thought JP Crawford was going to be somebody who could do that when he was younger. He had a lot of offensive traits that I really liked when he was coming up throughout the minor leagues. He had that one season last year where he hit. 19 home runs, but his game has obviously been driven more by his, uh, ability to just, you know, control the zone and play good defense at shortstop.
00:35:35
Speaker 1: Like Drew Jones would have a frame as, as one that I would have expected to add a lot of strength and mass moving forward. He was more in that kind of not as tall as Justin Crawford, but really kind of lanky frame that I would think would grow into a lot of really good strength in the future. Um, I could see Connor Griffin even adding more. He's pretty, he's pretty strong already. Um, just kind of looking back through the, through the years of our hitting prospects, if there are any like standout body types or projection examples, um, no, no obvious ones so far. Are there any guys who have like their bodies have changed more than you expected or like your projection for their, like Zach Veen maybe would be another good one. Um, he had a pretty projectable frame in high school and was already showing a lot of raw power. So I can see where it's like, super easy to dream on the juice that he would grow into.
00:36:27
Speaker 3: I mean, the most obvious one for me would be Eugenio Suarez, who signed with the Tigers out of Venezuela when he was, I mean, probably 16, maybe 17 years old. And he was like a skinny little five, 10, maybe shortstop with, Good instincts, gamer, put the bat to the ball, slap the ball around the field, make a lot of contact, but very little power. And then, I mean, obviously you see him now and he's hitting 40 plus home runs in his best seasons, hitting multiple seasons where he's hitting 30 plus home runs. So totally, body's gotten totally different in his performance. the, the, the output that he has, certainly the power that he has is nowhere near what I expected. And I'm sure even the Tigers scouts who signed him, we're not thinking, all right, this, you know, skinny little five foot 10 kid is going to go one day and hit 40, 40 home runs.
00:37:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, that's a good one. Bryce Terang is another one who I would, I feel like fit in that really lean camp of a player who was lean, but didn't necessarily scream as a guy who's like going to add a ton of weight in the future.
00:37:50
Speaker 2: I think he's still pretty lean at this, at this stage. So.
00:37:53
Speaker 3: Yeah. Boba shed is a guy who, who changed a lot too. That was one of the knocks on him in high school. So he was kind of a, uh, I say like chubbier third baseman looking body at the time. And he, he really transformed himself his, his senior year and into pro ball, both the body and the defense got, uh, certainly the defense in pro ball got a lot, better than people were, were giving him credit for as an amateur player.
00:38:21
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:38:21
Speaker 1: The players who are kind of holding onto some baby fat in high school, who kind of get rid of that and get into much better shape are always interesting too. You always wonder if it's like a genetic thing or just maybe, uh, hasn't quite figured out the gym side of things or the nutrition side of things at a really young age. And once they do figure that out, as they get older, can really just overhaul the body.
00:38:40
Speaker 2: Um, it's fun. It's funny. We talk about like the body type of players a lot.
00:38:45
Speaker 1: And if you like when Maddie is like hearing me talk about the way like a 17 year old high school baseball player looks physically and what they're going to, their body's going to project like moving forward. It is a little creepy if you are outside of this world of like scouting. So with no context, it's kind of funny to think through, but it is something that's super important for scouts and scouting and.
00:39:08
Speaker 2: Really analyzing players' bodies.
00:39:11
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's weird to, Talk about, I guess, but also try to be judicious in the way that you write about, especially for the younger players.
00:39:21
Speaker 1: We definitely don't write about players' bodies with the same adjectives that teams will use on their internal scouting reports that are not for publication. It's kind of funny to see just some of the terminology and the phrases that they will use.
00:39:35
Speaker 2: Scouts have very creative vocabularies, I'll say that.
00:39:39
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, then you have guys on the other end where it's, I think their body type is different. deceptive or can deceive people in terms of how how athletic the player really is um i think i think there's a guy for this upcoming draft uh sebastian norman who uh you know again it goes back he's he's big he's really strong like he looks like he could be lining up at nose tackle not like nfl nose tackle but like on a you know on a high school football team or something he's just big strong um what is he let's see what do we have him listed here last time i have him at least was like 6'2 235 and he's been you know a big strong early physical mature player for at least the last couple years since i've been watching him and i think when you first see him as a scout like your initial instinct and reaction is to be uh i don't i don't really I don't really care for this. He's big. He's physically mature early on. He looks like he's a first baseman, even though he's at third base right now. But then he runs, and I've seen him run 6'5. I mean, it's startling. I think the infielders are surprised, maybe not anymore because a lot of people have seen him play now, but just at how well he can move down the line. The exit velocities that he produces are some of the best in the class. No, I think there's some things he's going to have to continue to evolve with his swing. He's made some strides with it, but some things he's going to have to continue to make adjustments with to be able to tap into that power. But he also doesn't swing and miss a lot. So he's a weird player for me to try to wrap my brain around because it looks so different. Yeah, he had a good 60-yard... concerned but there's also a lot of things to really like too if he's able to i think make some of those um adjustments with with his swings there's a lot of athletic and other offensive traits to like between the power and the ability just to put the bat to the ball.
00:41:57
Speaker 1: Yeah just looking at the workout results from pg national and and he has some of the best exit velocities some of the best barrel speed um a really solid 60 yard time like you were mentioning and then it's funny seeing his 60 yard time right next to his 10-yard split because, I mean, just based on these numbers, it seems like he's one of those guys who maybe takes a few steps to get going, but once he gets underway, he's actually maybe quicker than you would expect him to be.
00:42:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you look at him and you're like, all right, well, big body, he's probably going to first base, and maybe that still ends up being the outcome, but I could also see him maybe like Cuvée going to school, although I don't think he's swinging miss nearly as much as Cuvée did. in high school, I could see him going that route and being a great player for, for Oklahoma state.
00:42:44
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:42:46
Speaker 3: Cool.
00:42:46
Speaker 2: Any other thoughts on, on this combo or do you want to get into some players?
00:42:51
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:42:51
Speaker 3: I mean, how much for, I mean, for a pitcher, like does body type matter more for you for, I mean, or is it different for you for different positions on the field, especially hitters versus pitchers or middle of the field guys versus corner guys?
00:43:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think generally, I probably think body matters more for position players, just because I think it can affect so many more aspects of your game. I think there are plenty of bigger pitchers who can be successful. There's no speed limitation for pitchers that I would be concerned about with the body. There's no, I guess to a certain extent, velocity might have something to.
00:43:29
Speaker 2: Do with your size or maybe durability with size.
00:43:34
Speaker 1: So in that sense, it matters. But I think the the range of outcomes for hitters based on like variance and body type is more meaningful. So I'd say it's probably more important to me for, for hitters than for pitchers overall. Obviously you get a lot of different body types in the middle of the field than you do in the corner of the field.
00:43:52
Speaker 2: I think that's fairly intuitive, but yeah, I guess I'm curious in like, in like the difference, like how important it is for.
00:43:59
Speaker 1: You for pitchers versus for hitters for, I guess for pitchers, for me, it's more like, Can we project more stuff to come? Can you move well enough on the mound to repeat your delivery? And are you going to be like a durable enough frame to maintain your stuff within games and over the course of like a pro season? So those would be the three aspects for pitchers for me that like kind of off the top of.
00:44:24
Speaker 2: My head, I think are the most important.
00:44:26
Speaker 3: Yeah. With pitchers, height is not as important for me as I think it is for others. I think it can be a great pitcher. If you're six foot five, you can be a great pitcher. If you're five foot 11, or if you're five 10, pretending to be six foot or six one, like a lot of these guys listed heights and weights, especially historically are not the most accurate, but I mean, if you have, uh, if, if you have a lot of arm speed and you have still room to project strength on your frame, like, I don't know, it doesn't matter if you're six foot or six foot four, it doesn't matter that much. I should say to me, like if, you know, you've got, Long arms, a ton of arm speed. He ended up getting injured a lot, but it really derailed his career. But I think back to Anderson Espinoza when he signed with the Red Sox out of Venezuela. Yeah, okay, six-foot right-hander, not that big, but really, really fast arm, not a physically mature body. And you just talk to scouts and they're like, okay, you wouldn't think of this guy as projectable, body or a guy you would project a lot of velocity on just if you just saw the uh you know six foot right hander on paper but the the way the operation the way the way the delivery works the way the arm works the arm speed there's a lot more projection there for him to be able to throw hard which he did end up throwing 100 miles an hour and you know end up getting hurt but that just that type of player um whereas if you're you know again that early physical mature high school player who's you know six one two hundred ten pounds or you know maybe like six six two hundred thirty pounds or something when you're 16 17 years old but there's not a lot of arm speed there you're already pretty filled out not a lot of strength projection there especially you're struggling to spin the ball that's that's more of like the the red flag territory for me Oh, you're, uh, you're muted.
00:46:41
Speaker 2: Oh, sorry.
00:46:43
Speaker 1: I was, I was, as we were talking, as you were talking there, I was, I was wondering about like pitcher height, um, how much that might be correlated with like aging well for pitchers at the big league level. Cause I think you can maybe lose a few things and still be able to maintain a lot of mass and maybe keep some, some strength and just like the durability of being a bigger framed guy for pitching. I wonder if there's anything to that.
00:47:07
Speaker 3: Although.
00:47:08
Speaker 1: I don't know one way or another. It does seem like there are not a lot of shorter starters who are aging into their 30s super well. It could just be missing guys. But I wonder if there's something to do with just the size of a pitcher helping you maybe age a little more gracefully.
00:47:26
Speaker 3: I think that's certainly the conventional wisdom. I'd be interested to see if there's any data on that.
00:47:32
Speaker 2: I'm trying to pull up.
00:47:34
Speaker 1: Uh, basically pictures over age 30 and sort by height. Um, but we also have like, I would imagine like most of the pictures are going to fall in like a six, two to six, six window anyways. Um, so maybe those outliers won't be as like meaningful in this sort of search, but like anecdotally, it does seem like there. So like, I'm, I'm just scanning through a list of pictures right now, age 30 or older by height and trying to see how many we have that are like shorter than, okay.
00:48:01
Speaker 2: So this is actually a decent sample. There are.
00:48:05
Speaker 1: Uh, well, like I don't want to count on a podcast as boring. So please continue with your thoughts about conventional wisdom. I'll count these guys up really quickly.
00:48:16
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was just saying, I think the conventional wisdom is all right. The bigger body guy is going to be the more durable player, but, um, I don't know if that's actually true. I don't know if the data bears that out.
00:48:27
Speaker 2: Here's what I did on a quick search. This is just in 2024 age 30 or older.
00:48:30
Speaker 1: Um, pitchers sorted by height so it looks like there are 301 pitchers this year who are 30 or older 24 of those are shorter than six foot and then 276 are six foot or taller so at least in terms of like the amount of players in the majors who are age 30 or older there is a significant amount more six foot or taller again like this is a very surface level search, but it does, at least in terms of the players in the.
00:49:01
Speaker 2: Big leagues, like they are taller guys who are this age.
00:49:05
Speaker 1: I would, I'd be curious actually now on just like the percentage of the percentage difference, age 30 and older, age 30 and younger, um, of height to see if there's like a noticeable shift in that. Like I would, if there is nothing to do with height helping you age better, I would expect the percentage to be similar on both those splits but i'll probably have to figure that out off the podcast but it's interesting as we talk about it sometimes there's truth to the conventional wisdom ben.
00:49:29
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it's wrong i'm just saying that is i agree that's the conventional wisdom and i don't know what the data would say if you looked at like the aging curves for players by different different sizes.
00:49:40
Speaker 2: Different height buckets you know someone has to have done that study before right.
00:49:45
Speaker 1: If you know let us know not me all right well let's go to a short hitter that i want to talk about again unless if you have more to talk about on this uh this body type conversation please feel free but i also want to talk about how good jj weatherholt has been is he.
00:50:00
Speaker 3: A short hitter.
00:50:02
Speaker 2: Um, he's a little shorter. He's no Charlie Condon.
00:50:05
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:50:05
Speaker 2: He's listed at five, 10. That counts as short, right? That's in your file. I'm of short hitters that you love.
00:50:09
Speaker 3: I don't know. You're going to get, you might get some people on the internet mad at you calling him a short King. All right.
00:50:14
Speaker 1: Well, I'm sorry if I know five, 10 is average for men, but if we're, we're isolating for athletes.
00:50:22
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:50:22
Speaker 1: I think it counts as short. Steph Curry is also short, but not really. So take that up with, uh, your own personal, uh, issues. We had Witherholt listed as 5'10 in college, and he's at least still listed as 5'10 in pro ball.
00:50:36
Speaker 2: So I wonder if he actually is 5'10.
00:50:39
Speaker 1: But either way, he led our hot sheet earlier this week for 20 standout prospects. He's, I think, sixth right now in total hits among all 2024 debut batters. He's got 31 hits. He has only been at low A Palm Beach, which I think he probably could be pushed to high A, a little bit more aggressive. I don't really think he needs to spend this much time in low A, but it's been nice to see him just collecting a bunch of hits. I think he's had a number of multi-hit games throughout September so far. Yeah, let me pull this up really quickly. Since the turn of the month, he's hitting 469, 514, 750 with a pair of homers, three doubles.
00:51:20
Speaker 2: He's walking a lot.
00:51:21
Speaker 1: He's not striking out a ton, 16 walks, 15 strikeouts. And You know, Ben, I just have to bring up J.J. Weatherholt being good because I was very torn on who I would take, Weatherholt or Condon, and Condon has absolutely been struggling.
00:51:34
Speaker 2: In his pro debut.
00:51:35
Speaker 1: So to reassure myself, I just want to talk about how good Weatherholt has been.
00:51:40
Speaker 2: At number seven, what a steal.
00:51:44
Speaker 3: I did like that pick for them. I don't know. I wouldn't say he's been, like, tearing the cover off the ball, though, by any means. He's been good, but he's a– JJ, whether it was a top 10 overall pick, super polished college hitter going to low A, and low A at the end of the year, so it's a bunch of guys who are still there.
00:52:03
Speaker 2: And it's him after being worn down, yeah.
00:52:06
Speaker 3: All right, sure. I mean, you could say that. Or it's the guys who are in low A, who started the year in low A, who haven't gotten a promotion, or the guys who started the year in the GCL or the FCL.
00:52:17
Speaker 2: Let me enjoy something, Ben.
00:52:18
Speaker 1: Let me have fun. Let me enjoy baseball. Let me celebrate people. playing well.
00:52:24
Speaker 2: Come on. Don't take this one from me.
00:52:27
Speaker 3: No, I'm saying I like JJ Weatherholt. I love JJ Weatherholt, but I don't know. Nothing. There's nothing like that. He's done. That's been like, Oh my God, I can't believe how.
00:52:36
Speaker 1: No, he's not having like a Wyatt Langford pro debut last year. And I think with all these guys, it's, it'll be a short enough sample to where I wouldn't expect our opinions on them to change too significantly one direction or another. Like even with Charlie Condon, like I'm not, not too concerned about him just yet. Um, even though he's, he's really swung and missed a lot, but it's just nice to see, you know, we called, we called JJ Weatherholt. I think one of the value picks, one of the steals of the draft, just given where he was at on our board, where he actually went on draft day, the amount of money he signed for. Um, I'll just say for me, like, I don't think there is a $ 2 million gap between JJ Weatherholt and Travis Buzana that we have in terms of their signing bonuses. So for the Cardinals, I think that's just, Just great value, but I don't think Cleveland will be too disappointed with getting Travis Bozana so much under slot for the first pick either. Just wanted to mention, JJ's been pretty good, and he's one of the only players picked in this top 10 range who's actually going out and playing shortstop and will probably play that moving forward.
00:53:38
Speaker 2: I think it's just encouraging.
00:53:41
Speaker 3: Any other draft debuts that caught your eye from this year?
00:53:46
Speaker 2: I mean, Christian Moore has been really good.
00:53:49
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz has been good. Nick Kurtz is going to be the one for me, yeah. Cam Smith has been good. I guess it is nice with Kurtz to see him performing because at least we have avoided the Jacob Berry introduction to pro ball and the offense completely falls apart and we're wondering what we have.
00:54:07
Speaker 2: Kurtz has been as advertised. He's hitting.
00:54:10
Speaker 1: 368,. 520,. 763.
00:54:10
Speaker 2: He has been promoted a little bit more aggressively. He's hitting for power.
00:54:16
Speaker 1: He's walking more than he's struck out, I believe. Yeah, 12 walks, 10 Ks. He's been really good.
00:54:22
Speaker 2: See if there are any other guys who stand out. Those are kind of the ones, I would say.
00:54:31
Speaker 3: Is there anyone you're really concerned with right now?
00:54:36
Speaker 1: No, I think it's too early for me to really get too concerned with anyone. Just kind of scanning to see if there are any pitchers. I was going to.
00:54:44
Speaker 3: Say Vance, Vance Honeycutt striking out for Orioles first round pick striking out at a 43% clip. I think that's a little, not that I'm surprised necessarily, but still 43.
00:54:56
Speaker 2: It's kind of like your, your expectations.
00:54:58
Speaker 1: I mean, he, he literally is the highest strikeout rate first rounder in the bonus pool era. So I would say it's not really surprising to me that he's continued to do that. Um, I can't imagine Baltimore's gotten in there and really done too much to change his approach or his mechanics or anything.
00:55:14
Speaker 2: So, I mean, if.
00:55:18
Speaker 1: You don't want to strike out that much, obviously, but that was kind of his one big question. That's why they were able to draft him at 22 because he struck out so much. So, yeah, I wouldn't say I'm any more concerned about his strikeout rates now than I was before the draft. I mean, that's kind of his Achilles heel, right?
00:55:39
Speaker 3: Uh, yeah, that's, yeah, it seems to be more than a heel, uh, right now, but the.
00:55:45
Speaker 1: Terms of, yeah, strikeout rate overall, this is like all debut hitters. No, like, uh, plate appearance threshold.
00:55:52
Speaker 2: He's like, has the fourth worst strikeout rate. Uh, only three, three players have a higher strikeout rate than him.
00:56:00
Speaker 3: Well, what about on the other end, James Tibbs, who was the giants first round pick 13th overall, who, uh, I mean, he's at 116 plate appearances right now, and he's got a 31% strikeout rate, and he's the opposite of Lance Honeycutt. I mean, he's the guy who you're drafting because you are so highly convicted in his hitting ability, and now he's coming out and not enormous. It's not a full season, but we're still over 100 plate appearances for strikeout rate. Yeah, I think you can look at that, especially if it's, significantly elevated from what we saw in college and what we were expecting from him at this point. Yeah.
00:56:45
Speaker 1: If you look at it, it's Travis Buzana has a 25% strikeout rate, Charlie Condon, 31% strikeout rate, Christian Moore, 26.7% strikeout rate.
00:56:54
Speaker 2: Tibbs, like you mentioned, uh, Theo Gillen.
00:56:57
Speaker 1: I don't think he's played in too many games, but he's got a 41% strikeout rate, Honeycutt, 42%. Um, and, Jacob Cozart striking out 36% of the time.
00:57:07
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:57:08
Speaker 1: I mean, those are, none of those are encouraging numbers, but if I'm not like too, too concerned about Charlie Condon with this sample, I don't, I don't know that I'll get too concerned about Tibbs either.
00:57:17
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a different tier player.
00:57:20
Speaker 1: I take your point about like Tibbs, not carrying the same athleticism and defensive value and speed that you do get from Vantani cut. And so with Tibbs, like, yeah, he, his, his window for striking out or his, his threshold is just going to be a lot lower. of what's acceptable, just given what else he does for you on the field and where he's going to be able to play.
00:57:40
Speaker 3: So yeah.
00:57:41
Speaker 1: And I do think though, if you're, if you're looking for one statistic, maybe to, to get really overzealous about strikeout rate is probably the one to look at because it stabilizes quicker than anything else. But we'll give all these guys a full season and pro ball to really see what they're doing. I don't know that I was never like the high guy on James Tibbs, but I also would have taken him in the first round. So Um, you don't want to see it. Is there any been anyone who's like play discipline has maybe been surprising for you in the opposite direction?
00:58:09
Speaker 3: Uh, I mean, see where King's walking a little bit more than I thought, which is means he's walking a little bit.
00:58:19
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:58:19
Speaker 1: I mean, it's double digit walk rate. He's not striking out a ton. So that is, that is good. Um, Travis was on it is walking a lot and it hurts is walking a lot. Um, Theo Gillen has walked a lot. Theo Gillen has been basically a two true outcome hitter. He's either walking or striking out in his limited sample. Dante Nori, his walk rate has been really good. Yeah, what's old Cags doing? 20% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate in his time in high A.
00:58:51
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:58:54
Speaker 1: No, there's no one else really that stands out too much. I wish we had more time for all these players. And really there haven't been a lot of prominent players Pitching prospects who have debuted. Hagen Smith has thrown a few games. I saw his first game, and it looked like the same old Hagan Smith that we saw in the spring. A lot of fastballs, a lot of sliders. Both those pitches looked pretty good. He's striking guys out still. Only Hagan Smith and Cam Caminiti have debuted among first-round pitching prospects from this year's draft. Caminiti struck out four. Didn't walk anyone in three innings in his one game at low A, so that's cool.
00:59:30
Speaker 3: Nick Kurtz is one I'm pretty excited about. Obviously, he's mostly been in low A before they skipped him a level and jumped into double A, so the same caveat supply that I brought up with J.J. Weatherholt. He had a 1,500 OPS in his brief time in low A. He's been hitting well in double A again. Obviously, brief sample there, but just to see the hitting ability, the strike zone discipline, the power that's all showing up in games is really encouraging for me.
01:00:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, tracking Kurtz and Caglione will be fascinating for us because I think the industry was split at some level. They were always pretty close on our board. And it does seem like really everyone here at BA was team Nick Kurtz just because of the selectivity at the plate, the approach at the plate. So I'll be really curious to see how both those guys pan out.
01:00:24
Speaker 3: And he did go higher in the draft.
01:00:26
Speaker 2: And he did go higher in the draft. That is true. the CAGS CAGS believers will cite the money.
01:00:31
Speaker 1: We'll cite the, uh, the draft stock in production so far, and then we'll, we'll run it back next year and see what happens.
01:00:37
Speaker 2: But, uh, that's been good to see so far.
01:00:40
Speaker 3: Unless CAGS is ahead of them, then we'll, then.
01:00:42
Speaker 2: We won't talk about it.
01:00:43
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:00:45
Speaker 1: Speaking, speaking of, I wanted to, uh, I was looking at this the other night just cause I was doing some, some prep for the podcast, looking at our topics and I saw our 2024 draft teams.
01:00:54
Speaker 2: So these are the teams that, um.
01:00:57
Speaker 1: Me, you, and Peter selected prior to, I think this is before the season got started, right? This is when we've typically drafted these teams. And I put together the total signing bonus value for each of these teams and just wanted to see how they looked. Because I will say, Ben, I shopped these teams around before the fact, like last spring, and everyone was saying that your team was the best. And right now, I've got to take a slight victory lap because my team made a lot of money in the draft.
01:01:27
Speaker 3: So this was the one where we said we had to take what five high school players.
01:01:31
Speaker 1: We had to take six, six high school, six college. And then we get a 13th player that can be either high school or college. And we drafted a team with a catcher, two corner infielders, two middle infielders, three outfielders, four pitchers, and one utility spot where you can use anyone. Um, and I have our 2023 team as well. Cause I think tracking these over like the span of five to 10 years will be even more fun. But at least in the short term, I can brag that my team made a lot of money in the draft. Your high school guys really screwed you this year, I'll say.
01:02:04
Speaker 3: You're very oriented in the short-term outcomes. Well, I'm playing the long game, Carlos. I'll take my guys to college. I'll take William Schmidt to school. I shouldn't be penalized for that. If the Brewers won't pay Chris Livonis, I'm telling him to go to Wake Forest. So I'm happy taking him and having him go to.
01:02:28
Speaker 3: Have his long-term future be, uh.
01:02:30
Speaker 1: It is, it is a long-term play for you, but just like thumbnail takeaways. So you, your total signing wellness value for your team was 36 million, 500,000. Um, that was third of the three of us. Peter was second with 39 million, 950,000. I ranked first in just this area, 50 million. But like you say, we did draft. We're trying to draft on talent, draft the best teams, uh, So that does require the long view, but at least for now the industry has rewarded me. The industry did value my players a little bit more than you and Peter. And it is funny. I think Ben, every single high school player that you picked went to school. I don't know if you told him to go to school, but that really crushed your draft.
01:03:15
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:03:15
Speaker 1: You had, you had Kate Aaron BD as your catcher. You had Brendan Lawson as one of your corner infielders. You had Owen Pano at middle infield. You had Derek Curiel in the outfield. And then three of your pitchers, William Schmidt, Teagan Coons, Chris Lovonis, who we all had, like William Schmidt was our top-ranked pitcher in the first round, him and Caminiti. And then Teagan Coons and Chris Lovonis, we had like top 70, I think, both of those guys.
01:03:37
Speaker 2: And absolutely none of them signed for you. So they did not help you out very much.
01:03:40
Speaker 1: And two of them withdrew from the draft before it happened.
01:03:45
Speaker 3: Do we count LSU NIL money in Wake Forest? Oh, yeah.
01:03:50
Speaker 2: If you can track down those numbers, I'll fold it in for you. We can bump your total up to like $ 37. 5 million.
01:03:56
Speaker 3: Well, I think I said at the time, I was like, I don't like any of these corner infield guys or like the catching. So in hindsight, I still don't. I still have concerns about that. Whereas I think I still like my high school, like my high school pitching.
01:04:11
Speaker 1: So I don't, you know, you guys, if it makes you feel any better, I think you did get the most like high value deals. Like you have four players who signed for 6.9 million or more. That's JJ Weatherholt, Jack Aglione, Chase Burns, and Hagan Smith. Like it's hard to argue with your one, two punch in the rotation. Um, Peter did the best in terms of not missing. He missed just one high school player. That's William Kirk was his utility spot. I missed two high school players. I had Garrett Schull.
01:04:42
Speaker 2: Who didn't sign and Noah Franco who didn't sign.
01:04:45
Speaker 1: Um, and then I also thought it was interesting. I just put together like a best of the rest team. So players who we didn't pick, uh, in just in order of signing bonus value. So this isn't like where you were picked, but just sorted all players based on how much they signed for and filled out the team.
01:05:01
Speaker 2: With the same roster.
01:05:03
Speaker 1: Here is the, basically next year, when you're thinking about guys we didn't pick, like you can still make a pretty quality team. The best of the rest team is Walker Yannick at catcher. Corner infield is Cam Smith and Blake Burke. The middle infield is Christian Moore and Luke Dickerson. The outfield is James Tibbs, Theo Gillen, because he was selected as an outfielder, so I put him there. Braylon Payne. The pitchers are Drangelo Sancha, Trey Savage, Cash Mayfield, Ryan Sloan. And then your util spot is Kel and Lindsey. So that's a pretty good team. But again, wanted to revisit the teams because it's always a fun process. And then we'll circle back in 10 years and we'll see how all those high school guys that you sent to college are doing.
01:05:45
Speaker 3: On episode 148 of our podcast.
01:05:49
Speaker 1: I did send our 23 draft team systems counts too, and they're pretty blown away by what you did in 2023. Do you want to revisit that as well? Because that looks pretty good for you.
01:05:58
Speaker 3: Well, if it makes me look good, yeah, you can, of course.
01:06:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, so, okay, our 2023 teams, we didn't have Peter do it, so just me and you going back and forth. I'll run down the teams so you guys can kind of, like, mentally take your pick.
01:06:09
Speaker 3: Did we have high school, college restrictions on this, too?
01:06:13
Speaker 2: We did, yeah.
01:06:14
Speaker 1: We tried to do the same thing. So you had to take at least six of each, and then your seventh can be from either high school or college. Your catcher was Ralphie Velazquez. Your corner infielders were Brayden Taylor and Eric Batante. Your middle infielders were Jacob Wilson and Kevin McGonigal.
01:06:30
Speaker 2: Great job there.
01:06:31
Speaker 1: Your outfield trio is Max Clark, Enrique Bradfield, Johnny Farmelo. Your pitching rotation is elite. You have Chase Dullender, Thomas White, Rhett Louder, Hurston Waldrop, and then.
01:06:44
Speaker 2: At UTIL, you got Paul Skeens. That's your team.
01:06:50
Speaker 1: My team is Kyle Teal at catcher, Yohani Morales and Aiden Miller at corner infield. Jacob Gonzalez, and Matt Shaw at middle infield. My outfield is Dylan Cruz, Walker Jenkins, Wyatt Langford. My pitching staff is Noble Meyer, Bryce Eldridge, Charlie Soto, Tanner Witt, which is probably the worst pick of the entire field here. And then at UTIL, I had Colin Houck. So I got to sneak Bryce Eldridge on there as a pitcher.
01:07:20
Speaker 3: I did the same with Bryce Rayner last year. How did you end up with Bryce Eldridge as a pitcher and I somehow ended up with Chase Dolander and Hurston Waldrop?
01:07:30
Speaker 2: Those are Carlos Colazo guys.
01:07:33
Speaker 1: Well, I wanted both Bryce Eldridge and Bryce Rayner as pitchers. I like them better as hitters. Actually, that's not true of Rayner. I basically wanted to get these two-way guys on the pitcher list strategically.
01:07:45
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't.
01:07:48
Speaker 1: Know how you ended up with Chase. No, I do know how you end up with Chase Dolander. I've been prioritizing hitters too much early in these drafts. And you have really won by targeting college arms early.
01:07:57
Speaker 2: So that's what I'm going to take out next year.
01:07:59
Speaker 3: Especially in this 23 draft, which is just such a good draft where I was like, all right, well, there's so many high school hitters. I'll get them later on.
01:08:09
Speaker 2: I think I have the edge and outfield for you on this one.
01:08:11
Speaker 1: But really every other position group, I think you could either make a case as a push and like your pitching is just lights out and you don't really have a miss. I would say like, like what's your miss? I have Tanner Witt who didn't get drafted.
01:08:26
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. Hurston Waldrop is okay. Not, I didn't, I didn't even love my Enrique Bradford.
01:08:32
Speaker 2: Your miss is a guy who's already a big leaguer. So, okay.
01:08:35
Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. I was just saying, I was laughing about Ralphie Velasquez earlier. Cause that totally fits what we were talking about earlier. Like, The big body catcher where it's like, even then I was like, this guy's not really going to catch. I'm drafting this. And I think anybody, including the guardians are drafting this guy thinking he's going to play first base. Oh, it looks like he's been playing a little bit left field too. So not that that's like super valid. but you're drafting him because okay yeah it's a bigger body type but it's a really good swing with bat speed and power.
01:09:08
Speaker 1: Yeah no that's fun so i think you can you can solidly take the win on our first year so far it looks like at least at least on the money and you And it already has me excited to do this process again in 25. So let us know whose teams you prefer, whose drafting strategy you prefer.
01:09:29
Speaker 2: But that's all I have to say on those teams, Ben. We can move on.
01:09:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like your team.
01:09:35
Speaker 2: Thank you.
01:09:36
Speaker 3: For 24.
01:09:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it as well.
01:09:38
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about– I want to bring up the Major League Player of the Year race because we've been talking about some awards that we're circling.
01:09:47
Speaker 2: We're kind of getting some finalists for. internally here at BA.
01:09:50
Speaker 1: And actually, as I pull up this board, Aaron judge and Bobby, which junior are both tied for the lead, um, and fan graphs war. They're both sitting at 9.6 as I look at it. And then let's pull up baseball reference and just see what their war leader board is. They have Aaron judge in first clearing Bobby with junior 9.5 to 9.0. Um, so for you, Ben, I guess like who is your favorite right now for major league player of the year? And do you think there are any other candidates for this award outside of Judge and Bobby Wood Jr.
01:10:25
Speaker 3: I think those are the two best candidates. It sounds kind of crazy to say when we have Shohei Otani pretty close to being a 50-50 guy, which I mean, we talked about with Acuna last year, like, okay, it's obviously a great season. I don't put as much stock into the 40-40 or I mean, again, 50-50 is a crazy accomplishment, but I just think the overall value in terms of runs created, runs prevented, positional value, it's not quite to the same level. I think he's the NL MVP for me, but if we're just talking about Major League Player of the Year, yeah, I think Judge and Witt are a cut above him. Are we on the same page?
01:11:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with everything you said. I mean, Otani has been really impressive. It's kind of remarkable to see what he continues to do, even while only getting like one half of the Otani experience. But I would lay it out basically the same. I think there is a really defensible case to be made for Bobby Witt Jr.
01:11:30
Speaker 2: And as the world's biggest Bobby Witt Jr.
01:11:33
Speaker 1: Fan, I'd probably be pretty predisposed to push for that case. But for me, I would lean Judge right now just because the gap between him as a hitter in the next best hitter in baseball, which might be his teammate Juan Soto, might be Shohei Otani, might be Jordan Alvarez. Like I just think what he's done this year offensively is so remarkable. I mean, JJ has written about it, but he's hitting.
01:11:59
Speaker 2: 320, 454, 686.
01:12:00
Speaker 1: He's got a 211 WRC plus the gap between him and Juan Soto. Juan Soto is sitting at number two in that category at 180.
01:12:10
Speaker 2: That is such a significant gap.
01:12:12
Speaker 1: Like, judge is leading the majors and a ton of major in a ton of categories and major offensive, um, just categories I think are valuable. He's leading with 51 homers, 126 RBIs. And I really don't care too much about RBIs, but it just like, it's part of the picture here. 119 walks. He's leading an OBP. He's leading in slug. He's leading an OPS. He's leading an OPS plus he's leading in total bases. He's leading an intentional walks. He's just been an absolute monster. Um, and I think like if you want it to look at the fangrass war and try and decipher out, like who has a better case, like so much of Bobby with juniors value, or at least relative to Aaron judge, a lot of his value is coming from the position he's standing at the position. He's playing well, the defensive ability he's added his base running ability. Like he's getting a lot of value in a lot of other categories. Whereas Aaron judge is basically that war total is just so significantly coming from the offensive production. And I think like, Those are probably more reliable in terms of my feeling about the defensive metrics, even though I do think Babu Jr. is one of the best defensive shortstaffs in baseball. I just think the offensive gap between them is big enough to where I would really comfortably feel like Judge is taking this one and getting it pretty handily.
01:13:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, and not that it matters for who should win the award, but it's just so impressive to see Judge doing this even past his... his age 30 season. I mean, he's 32 years old now. A lot of times, you know, you can still be a productive player into your early thirties or, you know, some guys into their late thirties too, but you usually expect some fall off, some level of decline once a hitter gets past their late twenties. And he just is having, I mean, maybe the best season of his life, which is incredible to say. I mean, maybe, you know, you could argue 2022.
01:14:10
Speaker 2: Is, Yeah, I guess those would be the two that you would put out.
01:14:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, the 2022 season when he– if he hadn't gotten to that little, you know, whatever you want to call this stretch that he's been in over the last few weeks because up until then it was bonkers. It still is bonkers. But, I mean, 51 home runs right now leading the league, like you said, in both– or leading baseball on base and slugging as a 32-year-old is ridiculous. Yeah.
01:14:40
Speaker 2: It really is.
01:14:40
Speaker 1: I'm just pulling up their baseball savant pages because I wanted to see where they were at and all these batter ball.
01:14:48
Speaker 2: Metrics and everything.
01:14:49
Speaker 1: But if you look at Aaron Judge's percentile rankings, he's basically like a max out hitter in every category outside of squared up percentage, width percentage, and K percentage. Everything else is literally 95th percentile or higher. And expected weighted on base average is 100th percentile. Expected slugging, 100th. Average exit velocity, 100th. He's got a 95.8 average exit velocity. I don't know if you were aware that it was that high, but that is a crazy number. His hard hit rate is the highest. It's in the 100th percentile. 99th percentile for bat speed. 100th percentile for walk rate. And literally, he's in the 100th percentile for batting run value as baseball savant defines it. And then if you look at base running value and fielding run value, he is well below average, which just speaks to just how good you have to be as a hitter to just compile this much wins above replacement and still lead the league. Like he's just been so much better than the next best hitter in baseball this year. It's, it's just impressive to see. And I do think that Bobby Wood Jr. is going to have a chance to win MVP. He is exceptionally young right now. He's playing a premium position. He is, he's much closer towards like ascending his peak, whereas you mentioned Aaron Judge doing this in his age of 32 season.
01:16:04
Speaker 2: It wouldn't be surprising to me for Bobby Wood Jr.
01:16:06
Speaker 1: To win, but as much as I love him as much, I love the fact that you're getting all this, all this value, this well-rounded value.
01:16:12
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:16:13
Speaker 1: You pull up Bobby Wood Jr's savant page and he's, he's 98th percentile or better in batting run value, base running.
01:16:19
Speaker 2: Value, fielding value.
01:16:21
Speaker 1: The only, um, below average category on his entire baseball savant dashboard page is chase rate. Everything else is average or above, um, and pretty close to elite in every category.
01:16:32
Speaker 2: Um, My heart wants me to give this to Bobby Witt Jr.
01:16:35
Speaker 1: Because I love him, but I think my head is pretty clearly telling me it's Aaron Judge's award.
01:16:40
Speaker 3: Do you think Judge... I know you think Bobby Witt Jr. belongs in the Hall of Fame. Do you think Judge goes in the Hall of Fame? You have to make a decision right now.
01:16:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I don't know why... I think he would.
01:16:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's... You look like he's 51 career war right now. I think he'll end up past... 60 he'll have two mvps yeah 62 home run season i mean i think.
01:17:11
Speaker 2: In terms of career he's already he got a later yeah.
01:17:15
Speaker 3: And he got a later start to his career too because he didn't really become a full-time regular until he was 25 years old when he had 52 home runs that season and went the league in walks too and was a rookie of the year obviously but uh it was a runner-up mvp that year so I think two MVPs, it'll end up being five, top five MVP finishes. I mean, just forgetting anything he does beyond this year, but I think he's very much on that track.
01:17:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, and just looking at some of his Hall of Fame numbers on B-Ref, if you go to any player on Baseball References page, there's a cool Hall of Fame stats category where you can see how players compare to their peers at certain positions, but yeah, for right fielders, he's already cleared the seven-year peak war, um, for the average right fielder. Um, I think it'll just be like for some people who really value longevity, maybe it'll depend on how he's aging into his thirties, but if this is any indication he's, he could be quite a bit worse and still compile a number of really impressive seasons moving forward. He's already at, he's already cleared the black ink threshold for hall of fame. Um, the hall of fame monitor says he's a likely hall of famer. Um, it looks like Jaws says he's a likely hall of famer as well. So Yeah, I think so, pretty safely.
01:18:32
Speaker 3: I think the more interesting one might be his teammate, Giancarlo Stanton. Does he get it?
01:18:40
Speaker 2: My gut instinct is he's not a Hall of Famer. What is yours?
01:18:44
Speaker 3: He's got an MVP. He was a runner-up MVP one other season.
01:18:49
Speaker 2: Mm-hmm.
01:18:50
Speaker 3: And he's at 427 career home runs right now. I don't know how much longer he's going to go, but if he gets to 500, I think.
01:19:00
Speaker 2: You think that's one of those milestones that just gets you in?
01:19:03
Speaker 3: It could, especially with more distance. I think if we look at his candidacy right now, and you can look at it right now and still say, okay, what, 45 career war baseball reference. All right, that's below your typical Hall of Famer. But I think a lot of people are also really anchored to what he's done recently or has not done recently with the Yankees. Because this guy, when he was with the Marlins, he was an absolute superstar. Um, I think people are maybe overlooking that right now and forgetting that.
01:19:40
Speaker 1: What's tough for me is he's had so much of his time has come at DH basically around his like age 28 season in 2018. He started playing that a lot. That's going to hurt him. I think, um, yeah, he'll be an interesting case. Like I, he has had an above average offensive season.
01:20:00
Speaker 2: Every year of his career outside of 2023. Um, You're right.
01:20:04
Speaker 1: The total home run numbers are shocking. He's led the league once in homers. He's led the National League another year in homers. He's led the league or the majors in slugging three times. It's just not quite enough for me, I don't think, yet. I just don't expect Giancarlo Stanton to have more really impressive seasons to add to this total too much. I don't think he's going to add. I don't think he'll ever get to the average war total that most I guess he'll go into his right field as they'll have. Like he's 44.5 career war.
01:20:41
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:20:43
Speaker 3: I think I wonder how much the 500 home runs is going to sway voters. He's 73 away right now. So let's say he plays, you know, he's age 34 season. If he plays three more seasons and averages 24, 25 home runs. Yeah.
01:20:57
Speaker 2: And he's had 24 a year every single year.
01:21:00
Speaker 3: I don't know what he's going to do. He gets here mid-30s, and he's certainly not the most consistently on the field guy. And how much playing time do you even want to give him after a certain point? I don't know, but I think it's very doable that he gets to 500 home runs. I think if he gets there, then it's going to be a much more polarized... voting block with him than it will be for other guys.
01:21:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's a good call.
01:21:30
Speaker 1: So right now you'd say you are lean no, but open to him depending on what happens in the.
01:21:36
Speaker 2: Next few years with him. Is that where you would say you are?
01:21:39
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably better for me to.
01:21:40
Speaker 2: Will you have a vote by the time he's eligible?
01:21:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll have a vote by then. I'd probably lean no right now.
01:21:48
Speaker 2: When do you get a vote? What'll be your first year? You're like six or seven in?
01:21:54
Speaker 3: Something like that. Um, yeah, I'll have to double check.
01:21:58
Speaker 1: It's not, not like I'm going to have a lot of fun trying to influence your hall of fame. Once you get that Ben, that's going to be my, my hobby horse trying to influence your hall of fame ballot.
01:22:07
Speaker 3: Can't wait to, uh, who's your, who's your pet guy you need in. Hmm.
01:22:14
Speaker 1: Who's going to be on the ballot in a few years. We need to find out what the, I just want to have some influence over, you know, want.
01:22:20
Speaker 3: To just be chirping in your ear. but we'll get, uh, we'll get, we'll get Andrew in.
01:22:27
Speaker 2: Yeah. He needs to be in, I don't know. He might be off the ballot by the time.
01:22:30
Speaker 3: You get yours.
01:22:31
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, he'd be, I don't know how many more years he still has. Yeah. He would for me too, but it's not a surprise to anyone.
01:22:37
Speaker 1: Um, one other thing I wanted to mention too, I don't know if you had other stuff you wanted to talk about, but, um, just looking over like rookies this year. And I was looking at our rookie of the year case as well. For me, it's like Paul Skeens, uh, Jackson Merrill, I think are the top two. And then other guys like Jackson Choreo and, Mason Wynn popped up to me surprisingly. I don't think I was quite aware of how good Mason Wynn had been this year. But also depending on what you value defensively or what you look at or how much you read into defensive metrics, Mason Wynn is one of the leaders in defensive run save this year. Some of those stats will tell you that he's been the best defender at the shortstop position in baseball. And then also Jacob Young, I think leads all players in outs above average after playing center field for the nationals this year, getting a lot of time on a, on a really young team, a team that's not really competing. Um, but I wanted to talk about both these two players because I think there's maybe an interesting comp for Mason win in this year's draft class. I think Mason was just fun in general. And then Jacob young is a great example of a player who I think even if he's not really hitting like a regular, um, what he's already done at the major league level this year, um, has far surpassed what I would have expected for him going back to when he was a draft prospect. just trying to pull up where we exactly had him, but he was playing left field on the Florida team that included Judd Fabian, I believe.
01:23:59
Speaker 2: Yeah. So in 2021, we ranked him number 353 in the draft.
01:24:06
Speaker 1: He was this athletic left fielder above average speed. People thought he was good in left field, but again, Judd Fabian played center field. And at the time, I remember people really praising Judd Fabian's defense, talking about how great he is.
01:24:19
Speaker 2: And so to think about a guy.
01:24:20
Speaker 1: Who is having like a gold glove centerfield season for the nationals in centerfield at the major leagues, just a few years later, it's kind of crazy to think about that outfield in hindsight. But I think the question with Jacob Young was like, if he was going to play left field, was he going to hit enough to profile that position? The understanding seemed to be that he would get a shot to play centerfield and pro ball, but it's just odd to think about a player being blocked at a position as an amateur and then moving to that more difficult position and like holding it down and being that good. So I just think he's, it's impressive what he's done defensively. He has been a league average, like a below league average hitter. He's only hitting 255, 315, 336. So it's like contact, not a lot of OBP, I guess a decent amount of OBP, not a lot of power. But even if he does nothing else in his major league career, like he's just been way better than I expected him to be. And I think it's cool that basically this elite defensive center fielder was hiding in Florida's left field. And I wonder how good Like if we had the same metrics we do at the major league level, like seeing how good that Florida outfield defense was at the time would be interesting to me.
01:25:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't comment too much on his defense now because I'm not going to pretend like I've been watching a lot of Washington Nationals games this year to be able to say a ton. But you said you're surprised by Wynn's defensive ability that he's shown this year or just how good his metrics have been?
01:25:45
Speaker 1: I'm, I'm, I was surprised just by the war total this year. Like I knew he had been kind of a solid hitter. Um, and then I think there is a pretty reasonable gap in value depending on it. If you're going by fan graphs war, if you're going by B ref war, like baseball reference really loves him because they use DRS and their defensive calculation for war and fan graphs, I think he uses UZR. Um, so there's a reasonable gap between the two, but if you do think Mason wins one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, what he's done this year has been, just really impressive. And he certainly has the tools to be one of the best defensive shortstops. I probably be a little more bearish on, on where I value his like true defensive talent. Um, but he said two 71, three 19, four Oh six. I think he's moved into the lead off role for the Cardinals this year while playing that defense. Um, just a really strong season overall. Um, and as I was thinking about Mason, when I was also.
01:26:40
Speaker 2: Watching a lot of Billy Carlson in the 2025 class, um.
01:26:44
Speaker 1: And I've already got a little bit of pushback on this comp because I think there's a thought that Mason Wynn's tools are just so much more explosive than Billy Carlson's. But Mason Wynn was a two-way player in high school. He was really talented on the mound, big arm strength, athleticism as a hitter. And then we have Billy Carlson, who is going to rank somewhere in the top 30 on our top 100, who's a shortstop and right-handed pitcher at Corona High School. He's one of the best defensive players in the class. He also has a big arm. He's gotten into the mid-90s on the mound. Um, so I just, that was kind of like a, an automatic comp that came to mind and I wanted to run it by you, uh, since I think you've seen Billy Carlson quite a bit more than me, but two really fun two way players. And I think for both players, obviously when isn't an everyday shortstop now, I think most scouts are a little more excited about Billy Carlson as a hitter and shortstop moving forward as well.
01:27:33
Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts on that comp?
01:27:35
Speaker 3: I mean, I can see the framework of what you mean where two guys who, who Or both two-way players. I mean, Billy Carlson's a good prospect on the mound, too, if he were to just pitch. I think he'd still be a really highly rated pitching prospect. Probably even be a better– he'd probably be a better pitching prospect than he is right now just because he'd be so focused on it full-time as opposed to going out there and playing shortstop and hitting and splitting his focus that way. And obviously that was Mason Wynn in high school. He's one of the top two-way players in high school. I actually remember I loved that Cardinals draft, and part of the reason– It was that 2020 draft, right? Yeah, I'll pull it up. With Jordan Walker and Tink Henson. I was like, they got two of my favorite arms, Tink Henson and Mason Wynn.
01:28:22
Speaker 1: It was Jordan Walker at pick 21, Mason Wynn at 54, Tink Henson at 63, Alec Burleson, Levi Prater, Ian Bedell, LJ Jones.
01:28:30
Speaker 2: This is the full 2020 Cardinals draft.
01:28:32
Speaker 3: Decent, yeah.
01:28:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty good, pretty good.
01:28:35
Speaker 3: For when you can't go out and even see the players in the spring, but... yeah, I was like, Oh great. So I got, I got the players, right. But I think I get, I got to lose a lot of points for liking him more as a pitcher. Although I guess we'll never know.
01:28:50
Speaker 2: But you're always wrong on the two way guys.
01:28:52
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:28:52
Speaker 3: It certainly has worked out pretty well as a shortstop. So I can, I can see that obviously they both have huge arm strength wins is, you know, best in baseball right um or i think it's right up there with ellie right yeah um but billy carlson is a well above average arm i i think it's tough i didn't see like mason win play a ton in high school so i'm more going off of our draft reports on him where people obviously like the athleticism and his ability to to make some really good defensive plays there. But it sounded like, you know, playing more under control and more consistently, which is typical of a lot of young shortstops. That was an area for him where, you know, wanted to see some more progress. Whereas with Billy Carlson, I think he is the best defensive shortstop in the class. I think he's been that way for at least the last couple of years now. Everything is so smooth, so easy, so silky and crisp. the arm strength is obviously there. He's an excellent athlete, quick first step, super light on his feet, just floats around there like a butterfly playing shortstop. The hands are so clean and secure. So there's a ton to like with him defensively. I think it's a chance to be a plus to potentially well above average defender at shortstop. And then offensively, last year so like in 2023 he did not have a great high school season and then the summer it was okay but not great like i kept wanting to put him as a top five or even top three player in that 2025 or excuse me that yeah with a 2025 class and just couldn't do it because there just wasn't enough there offensively yet but he did make a lot of contact it was not a high swing and miss guy And there is bat speed there too. It's just a lot of ground balls that he was rolling over and wasn't a lot of offensive production there during the summer. So it was a little bit concerning, but still had him ranked really high. And then this spring, it was much better. Like you said, he plays at Corona High, which is one of the best programs in the country. I mean, that team might have you know, three first round picks with Seth Hernandez, right-handed pitcher, top right-handed pitcher in the class, Brady Ebel.
01:31:22
Speaker 1: I think that would tie the record that a couple of college programs have. Like, I don't think we've ever had a high school program do that. I would have to check back to be sure, but I'm pretty positive based on some of the queries that Matt has run for me of just like teammates drafted in the first round, that that would set a record for high school, which is just pretty insane if it does happen.
01:31:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, and odds are one of them probably slips out of that range or something. Who knows? But it's a great program. And then he's hit well at some big events this summer too. So definitely a guy I think is trending up. There's just a lot of things with him. We haven't even talked about him too much on the mound. But yeah, he's up to what now? 97, 98? Can really spin the ball. Can probably spin the ball just as well as Seth Hernandez is. can. His teammate, I mean, he's not as good of a pitching prospect, I don't think, as Seth Hernandez, but nobody else.
01:32:20
Speaker 2: If he is, he should be 1-1 if he is.
01:32:25
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I can see the framework of the comps in terms of those similarities. Athletic, two-way shortstop, who can really throw, but I think Billy Carlson's probably even more consistent. It sounds like consistent defensively, And at the same age compared to what the Wynn reports were.
01:32:47
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:32:47
Speaker 1: I was going to say it is interesting too, because I think the pushback that I got was like Mason Wynn.
01:32:52
Speaker 2: Is, is just much more explosive in terms of tool set.
01:32:55
Speaker 1: Like the comment and early feedback was like Billy Carlson's tools are really good, but Mason Wynn's are just top of the scale. Um, but if you're just looking at where we have them ranked at the time, Billy Carlson's status in his respective class is just ahead of where, where Mason Wynn was.
01:33:10
Speaker 2: So I thought that was kind of interesting.
01:33:12
Speaker 3: I mean, Mason Wynn was a second-round pick. He was the 54th overall pick. Yeah, that's what I mean. If you knew he was going to be Mason Wynn, who he is now, he would have gone in the first round. Yeah, for sure. Sometimes I think our memories.
01:33:26
Speaker 2: There definitely is a little hindsight bias in that one.
01:33:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't recall things always so accurately with the benefit of hindsight.
01:33:37
Speaker 2: For sure.
01:33:38
Speaker 3: Okay.
01:33:38
Speaker 2: Well, that's cool.
01:33:39
Speaker 1: I just want to talk about some, some glove first guys who, who had just popped for me and over the last few weeks, just noticing like, can I have good, those seasons were, but man, really good, really good pick for, for Jacob young. And I do think that's kind of a testament to sometimes playing for a bad team is not the worst thing in the world for young player. Cause you're just going to get opportunities like that. You might not get on a more competitive team. I know there are some comments that I hear talking to scouts and some agents about players maybe being a little disappointed in like how good the quality of their team is.
01:34:06
Speaker 2: They just got selected for it. I think it's good.
01:34:09
Speaker 1: You're going to get more opportunities to do so. And whether or not Jacob Young is like a key piece, key regular of like a championship team, I think he's clearly shown himself to be really impressive. And then Mason Wynn is going to be really fun to watch for years now. So, yeah, that's all I had for today. Anything else you wanted to talk about, Ben?
01:34:29
Speaker 3: I mean, I like that. Nationals, young core. It's certainly what they have at the plate right now or in their lineup with Abrams, Wood, Cruz, Jacob Young. Keeper Ruiz is still 25. I know he hasn't had the season offensively that he was hoping for, but still a good amount to light there. Luis Garcia is under 25, too. It's a lot of good 25 and under talent still in that lineup. Yeah.
01:34:56
Speaker 1: I think there are going to be some players that you probably want to have to take a step forward to really like actualize all this. Like there are a lot of guys you could see maybe being impressive. I'm trying to pull up their, their whole team right now, but I think it's one of the youngest major league teams in the game this year, which makes a lot of sense just given their window. Um, but you've got a team of players that include Dylan Cruz, James Wood and Mackenzie Gore. I'm going to inherently going to be drawn towards that young core of players. So I'm excited about it. They're going to get a few more additions in the near future as well. So, yeah, we'll see. I mean, what are your thoughts on C.J. Abrams right now? Do you think he's lived up to his expectations as a prospect? How good of a defender do you think he is? Like, what do you think about his jump in offense? He's improved as a hitter year over year. Each year he's been in the majors. He's still just in his age 23 season.
01:35:44
Speaker 2: Do you think he's got another level to take? Like, do you think there's more in the tank for him, or is this kind of who he is?
01:35:53
Speaker 3: It's just like his second full season as a regular. Now it's two years in a row of him being a three-plus win player as a 23-year-old. Is he three-plus.
01:36:03
Speaker 2: Wins, actually?
01:36:04
Speaker 3: Wow. B-Ref has him three wins.
01:36:07
Speaker 1: Man, the way B-Ref and Fangraffs just disagree about defense is crazy. Fangraffs has him at 2.3 last year and 1.6 this year.
01:36:15
Speaker 2: So I guess choose your site.
01:36:20
Speaker 3: Yeah, B-Ref has him... Plus two fielding runs, so it's not like they're calling him an elite defender. Fangraves must be. Are they just crushing his defense?
01:36:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fangraves has him as a negative defender. He's got negative 6.6 on their defensive.
01:36:37
Speaker 2: Value here.
01:36:37
Speaker 3: I don't think it was exactly UZR.
01:36:39
Speaker 1: But I think Fangraves actually shows UZR and DRS, so I'll see what those two think about him. UZR has him as 0.4 this year. DRS has him as positive, so the window is a little closer than the Mason win.
01:36:56
Speaker 2: A difference, I think.
01:37:01
Speaker 3: My instinct is more aligned with the B-Ref version, but again, I haven't been dialed into Nationals games down the stretch this year, so I'm not going to say I feel strongly about it. I'm going to pull.
01:37:13
Speaker 1: Up outs above average really quick to see what that says. I really prefer that for outfielders, but just to get another uh another sample here let's see what that says cj abrams oof pretty bad outs above average so if you think cj is you're a good defender he literally is the worst player on this list here for outs above average so maybe don't use that one if you like him.
01:37:36
Speaker 3: Ben again like i said i haven't been.
01:37:40
Speaker 2: They they do have jacob young at the very focused on them.
01:37:43
Speaker 1: They have Jacob Young as the very top of this outs above average board and then C.J. Abrams as dead last on this board. So that's just kind of funny.
01:37:51
Speaker 3: Ouch.
01:37:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. All right. What else you got?
01:37:56
Speaker 3: I mean, we got to put up our 2026 rankings today. So updated those, expanded it to 150 players, top 150 players in the class. So we were just talking about Billy Carlson and some good shortstops in the 25 draft coming up. I think certainly better than the 24 draft. I mean, a lot of those guys probably won't stick it shortstop. I mean, there's Ethan holiday, Brady evil, like certainly, um, certainly Billy Carlson will, but, um, you know, to be determined still on some of those other guys, Koi James case in Cunningham, but definitely some good shortstops in this 25 group. I think especially this 26 class will be a lot of Carlos Collazo type players that you're going to like, guys who are shortstops. And again, same thing, a lot of them probably still will move off the position, but then you have guys like Grady Emerson and jacob lombard the the top two players in the class who i think both have a really strong chance to stay at shortstop and be first round picks so um just updated and expanded that list today.
01:39:03
Speaker 1: Yeah everyone is really excited about the 26th class but i have to say i've really had a lot of fun talking with scouts about the 25 class i think it's a significant step forward from 24 at least on the high school side there are just a lot of players that i'm really excited about i think the depth of the class is a lot stronger right now um I think at the very top, the college hitters, maybe we're going to have to take some steps forward to get to the same sort of tier of college hitter we had in last year's class. But as a whole, I'm really excited about 25. And if 26 is just another step up from that, let's go. I'm really excited to break these guys down for the next two years.
01:39:36
Speaker 2: It'll be fun.
01:39:38
Speaker 3: Yeah. And that's even after losing from 26, lost Cruz Schoolcraft. He reclassed at 25. Eli Willits, another shortstop, reclassed at 25. Quentin Young, big power hitting. I guess he kind of plays shortstop still, but really more probably third base or corner outfielder. Nephew of Dimitri and Delman Young, pretty ridiculous power and bat speed that he has. Same with Schoolcraft, another two-way guy with Schoolcraft. So, yeah, even after losing some big guns in the 26 class, still a pretty strong group.
01:40:15
Speaker 2: Yeah. All right.
01:40:15
Speaker 1: So check out Ben's top 150 for the 26 class. And then next week we'll have an update for the top 100 class as a whole for 2025. Get you guys set up and introduced to these classes well ahead of next year's draft. And I mean, you're way ahead of the curve for the 26 has been. So that's what you guys can look forward to on the website. For Ben, I'm Carlos. Thanks for listening, everybody. Really appreciate it. We will see you next time.