Jacob Studwell: Welcome, welcome, welcome to the predicted podcast. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckum. Garth, this will be our final episode. So let's let's soak it in. Let's enjoy each other's company. Let's discuss politics, the markets, everything
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: under the sun. Maybe you want to talk about life and and death and your children. And I don't know. Like let's let's let's do it all, right?
Garth: I mean how how much time do you have?
Jacob Studwell: Not too much. Let's let's get to it. No. All right.
Garth: Okay.
Jacob Studwell: All right. so so I want to quickly dive into what happened last night. ended up being not too exciting of a night going into it. coming out of it, a few headlines. Angie Nixon, right?
Garth: Yep. From Jacksonville.
Jacob Studwell: Angie Nixon took a dub against Alexander Vinman. Vinman had like $20 million raised. Nixon had, you know, barely even a million dollars raised. So this is another socialist win here. the Vinman stuff. I mean, we haven't I don't think we said his name once in the last 36 weeks or however long we've been doing this. He's he's like a carpet bagger, right? That's not like He's not like a real Floridian who was like, I'm gonna represent my state. And what's interesting too is that, you know, you hear a lot of things. Basically, since twenty sixteen, the Democratic Party establishment down there in Florida has really just ceased to exist. I mean, they've just given up. they're they act like it's, you know, Alabama or Mississippi in in cer some ways. So it's actually not that surprising that the socials candidate wins here in this primary, even with the money disparity, but when there's not too much of an establishment to beat, the socialist candidate is gonna have an easier time.
Garth: I I I mean, yeah, I agree. And and you know, the Republicans kind of run up the numbers on registration, surpassing the Democrats and they've kind of turned Florida under DeSantis. you know,
Jacob Studwell: Okay.
Garth: w which we can get to a little bit later. I mean, filling his shoes will will be quite difficult. I mean, as as a the red resident Floridian here who hasn't lived there in a long time. you know, the Angie Nixon thing is is just is is fascinating because, you know, D D D D HQ wasn't even polling against her wasn't she wasn't even she was a speck in the distance and yet she cruised right past Windman for the Democratic nomination for Senate. not to say that she has much of a chance or should have much of a chance against Moody in the the finale, but it is fascinating that she could do so well. I mean just I mean, how how does Vinman spend that much money, raise that much money, and lose by that much to somebody nobody knew existed?
Jacob Studwell: N not a good candidate.
Garth: But it
Jacob Studwell: He does have some name ID though. Vinman is like a real person who
Garth: I but like sh
Jacob Studwell: political people know.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: That's the thing.
Garth: Right. Like I I could okay I could understand if he he was a re running as a Republican and they were like, we hate you because of what you did. But we didn't have that. He was running as a Democrat and I mean she won by a hundred and fifty thousand votes. I mean a hundred and fifty
Jacob Studwell: Pretty that's pretty crazy.
Garth: thousand votes. That's a lot.
Jacob Studwell: I mean when you hear that and then you look at the Alaska primary results and you just look at the the vote counts on that and you're like, wow, like the you know, the the party the the winner of the party primary in a state in which, you know, Democrats are very much out of it in Florida, or at least have been for now a a decade plus, and you
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: see like Paltola, a hundred and twenty thousand votes, I think, just total. I think it was something like that.
Garth: what would they have eighty pr they're at eighty percent counted right now? No, she has a she's at sixty three thousand votes. Sullivan is at fifty six thousand. Yeah, you double that. You double that, yeah. It's it's okay.
Jacob Studwell: Sixty-three. I mean, I doubled it. I doubled it by accident. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And in Alaska there's only six hundred thousand registered voters total. So it's funny that she can get a hundred and twenty thousand more or a hundred and fifty thousand more votes than Vin Min. it's it's just always it's it's good to know how large the state is. It's very important, I think. because the larger
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: the state, the less each vote matters. And that's why we talk about Alaska so much, because it's just a smaller state. It's easier to win. It's that simple.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. And now we have on top of that we have two Danes. Two Dan Sullivans running in in the final. I mean this it's it's a marketing coup for us here. here at Predict It. We get to talk about the two Danes,
Jacob Studwell: my god, two dance.
Garth: the two Sullivans, all at the same time. They're both Republicans. what a gift from above.
Jacob Studwell: The two dams. It really is a good gift. We appreciate
Garth: I made it.
Jacob Studwell: the political gods. Is he a plant? Do we think he's a plant?
Garth: He says he's not. He says, Well he apologizes my grandfather's name. What am I supposed to do? He's just he's just a junior. He's
Jacob Studwell: He says he's not. I mean, it's
Garth: a
Jacob Studwell: he's got he's got thirty two hundred votes in this primary. It's it's hard
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: to not think that he's a plant, you know? Like it's it would take a lot of convincing. I haven't seen much of him, which makes me think he's kind of just there for the name on the ballot.
Garth: No. Well I mean the what six they had sixteen was it fifteen or sixteen candidates. Sixteen candidates in this race. The top four make it. And really it's just it's just it's a quirk of of the Alaska system. we love our systems, we love our quirks across the country. We've got fifty states, fifty different rules. I mean, because you know, you've got forty s forty eight and forty two percent of the vote, I mean, all chalked up, and then there are gonna be two other guys. under five percent or in this case under three percent who get to go to the big dance in November. And one of is named Dan Sullivan.
Jacob Studwell: And one of them happened to have the same name as the other guy who got fifty six thousand votes. I mean, it's just just
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: ha just coincidental. It's it's crazy.
Garth: It's it's hilarious. It it really is. yeah, I just
Jacob Studwell: It's absurd.
Garth: you know, what can you do?
Jacob Studwell: I mean, let's talk about really quickly. There's also two Begage's in the Alaska governor's
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: race and the Alaska at large house district,
Garth: Well
Jacob Studwell: the one house member that they have. one's a Republican, one's a Democrat. We gotta
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: figure out this whole name thing. Like Alaska d needs more names. I think more different names, something like that.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: but Beggage Alaska, very confusing. Too confusing for me.
Garth: I I think the names that's hilarious. And I think the Republicans could be in trouble. I think it's a question of what kind of turnout. I I think Sullivan could be really in the incumbent Republicans gonna be in a lot of trouble here.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: I think the Republican Party's gonna have to spend a bunch of money to figure out how to clarify or get Dan Sullivan to drop off, but even if you get him to drop off, you know. His name is gonna be on the ballot, I presume, or unless
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: there's a actually I think there's a deadline. I think there's a deadline for it August thirtieth, maybe. for being on the ballot for
Jacob Studwell: Okay. So they have eleven days.
Garth: November. So they have eleven days to remove him from from the show. But even even still he's you know, that puts him at fifty nine thousand votes, just shy of sixty. That means Pellot Paltola would still win by by three thousand votes. so
Jacob Studwell: Yeah.
Garth: they have some work work to do there to to save that seat. And you know, it's a seat that shouldn't really be in play. Again.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, I I will say I'm not gonna read too much into the primary results, even though it's nice and we get a nice bunch Republicans versus Democrats head to head, but it's still a different electorate. People are still going to come out more so in November. So it's still a a turnout race and you know, Sullivan could easily just drive up all the Republican I mean historically Republican state, right? So he can really drive up the Republican turnout in November. I know Peltola had a had a lot of turnover. In terms of her campaign last week, fired campaign manager, lots of staff, lots of concern there. I actually think sometimes that's a good thing in a campaign when you you start to feel like you're losing steam. And what's great, this is a classic baseball thing, by the way, is where you fire your manager right before you're going to you know that you're going to win a bunch of games. So that's what this is. This is Peltola. Firing the manager right before she wins the primary because you want the the new manager to feel like, okay, we hired our guy, we got a couple wins, we have momentum, this is a great change. So I think it was actually very smart timing there. Clearly, she's got some experienced people on hand. I mean, I know this is Chuck Schumer's girl, so maybe he's in in the ear of Peltola there, but sm smart moves and It's also a good way to just kind of get your name back out there. there's a lot of competitive races and Alaska again, small state, so it's tougher to to compete with the seven other races that you got going on in terms of name recogn or newsworthiness. so it's it's a good it's a good sign, I think, even though it seems like a bad sign on paper.
Garth: Yeah, I mean it's the new manager balance, right? W we have it in so in soccer as well. you know, there's a hope to r rectify things and and you know, instantly the players are playing for for the new managers because the new manager doesn't know them. but no, yeah, i i it's a good good timing to do it. her fundraising operation is fantastic. Stuh was definitely crushing incumbent Sullivan. And you know, seven to seven million to two million in the second quarter. you know, it it's she's got some momentum. What is interesting is a little sidebar, it's not predicted questions. Elon Musk has got a
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: he's spending big money on trying to remove this ranked choice system in Alaska. so kind of an odd oddity to keep your eye on as we move closer to November. who knew?
Jacob Studwell: It has failed the Republicans a few times in the past. so I'm not surprised this is the move, but it's one of those, like, but explain why, you know? Like it's it's a tough one to explain
Garth: Definitely.
Jacob Studwell: to the voters. Like, actually, we want less of your opinions, you know, and that doesn't really work out. There's a Missouri ballot. referendum that basically that that failed I think in every single district across the state of Missouri and it was like we're gonna take the power away from voters to put up I think it's put put up laws to referenda or something like that, but we're gonna leave the power in the hands of the state assembly, s something like that, where it was taking power away from voters and it lost like 70, 30 or 80, 20, something crazy. and that's just one of those things where it's like, how do you explain that to voters in a way that makes them wanna vote for it? People in America don't wanna want less power, they want more. more d democratization, not less. So it's it's really that's gonna be a tough sell.
Garth: Yeah, definitely. Definitely. But he's got lots of money. So, you know, you never know.
Jacob Studwell: I was gonna say the more races we chase after with this money disparity, the less I believe it money in politics actually matters. I mean, sure, money's great. It's gonna it's gonna probably win you a close race or two, it more times than than not, but money's not gonna just fly you to a seat. I that's what we learned with Vinman. How many times this this cycle have we seen money not really do much for you?
Garth: I I it I was gonna s you you're you're hitting the n you're hitting the nail on the head right there. I mean, 'cause 'cause that's kind of the pivot back to Florida or for some of the house races. but you I mean, really all I wa the point I was gonna make is that, you know, Musk did spend a lot of money in the last election and it made a difference. But what we're seeing so far in this this cycle is the money is not going that far. It really just is
Jacob Studwell: Okay.
Garth: you know, you saw it in Texas in the Cornyn versus the Attorney General what Paxton. you saw it in Michigan, and then you've seen it all over the place actually. I mean Vinman is the last one, obviously. but th there's a lot of money being spent and it's not going very far.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah. No, I I'm I'm with you.
Garth: It's it's it's not
Jacob Studwell: Looking at Alaska polling right now, I'm seeing so Alaska Survey Research poll back in early June had Peltola up five. You had a New York Times Siena University poll, probably the highest quality poll, although not the largest sample size of the bunch, having Sullivan plus two. But they actually didn't have the other Dan Sullivan included. So I always I don't love those polls where you don't have The other Dan Sullivan. I think that's going to be it's gonna
Garth: All the people?
Jacob Studwell: be a big factor. And then you had an Alaska Survey Research poll again without the other Dan Sullivan at Pul Peltola up to. And then there was a Data for Progress poll. They did it three different times, one with four candidates, and I think they might have gotten the last candidate incorrect. They had Hikes or Hikes instead of Leslie. But regardless,
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Peltola was up six, five, and six in a four-candidate race, a three-candidate race with the other Dan Sullivan, and a two-candidate race. So the polling is definitely starting to move closer to Peltola. probably a good sign, but again, it's you're you're kinda I don't know if these are technically primary polls. Like, am I buying into Even though the primary is, you know, a jungle
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: primary or or a non party primary, are are we are we buying into them getting the electorate right? Is this for the general? Like I I it's hard to keep track.
Garth: Well, exactly. And then when the pool the pool is so big, I mean, sixteen candidates, that's really just unwieldy. I mean, it polling people are gonna have to make make choices. I mean, you mentioned what's his name? Heikes, Gerald. he earlier this morning when I woke up, he was in in the fourth slot and now he's been surpassed by David Leslie. So and you know,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right.
Garth: I think hi he's a bit bit of a bigger name, could be wrong, but my understanding for what I could could see this morning and and a little bit before is that he was a bigger name to come through with a little bit more name recognition. And you know, he might
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: not make it. I mean there's geez, there's what, thirty votes in between twenty votes between the two of at the moment, with eighty percent of the vote counted according to the AP. but yeah, i i it's tight. I think this is and it's gonna go for for a little longer. I mean obviously big state might take a little while to collect c collect and count some votes. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, it is funny. I mean, they're big state, but not as big as I don't know. We we go back and forth. This is the whole vote counting thing, right? I think I give credit to Alaska. It's a giant state, it's inaccessible, right? It's like in some places I feel like you have to fly from city to city. It's not like California. So we're always comparing these vote counting operations to California. And you know, I give credit
Garth: Yeah. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: to Alaska getting in most of their votes, and it's a tough state all in all. what's funny about the state is again with the pollability of it, it's it's a small state in terms of population, again, 600,000 registered voters. So each sample size, it might look smaller, like it might look like another poll, and they're gonna have like 600 likely voters or something like that. But it's a much more representative sample just because it's you're you're trying to sample something much smaller. So I think I will put a little bit more stock into the the Alaska polling. versus primary polling in Michigan or primary polling in California. And I do want to pivot from there. If we go on to a big polling story, and a big story in terms of prediction markets was this fake polling firm called Median Strategies,
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: which released bogus bogus polls or just fake polls across the Cal the LA mayor race, showing Karen Bass up 11 points. They released a fake poll
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: in Nevada in the governor's race, showing Lombardo, the incumbent Republican governor, up six or five points. And then they also released a fake poll in Wisconsin showing Francesca Hong up 20 points. So it's one of those things that reminds you you have to trust the sources that you're going to. And what I really love, I mean, we use fifty plus one a lot on this podcast. if the if if this podcast continued on, I I was going to actually interview Mary Radcliffe from 50 plus one later on this year, closer to the to the general. And it they do great work. They always reach out to every single pollster. All the all the numbers that they get, all the polls that they get are verified, and they have to understand their process to actually upload and and post the the polls that they get. So you do and and we A lot on this podcast about discernment, right? We've heard that from multiple different guests. Is that the future challenge of politics of being on online is going to be discernment? we love AI ads, but it you need to know that it's AI, right? So it's it's discerning
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: which polls are real, which pollsters are real, which numbers are real, which numbers are less real, not less real, but you know, you you can't read in a hundred percent to every single number you see. And it's just interesting, we got a fake pulse here. I mean, what what a big red flag right
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: before the general. Like, don't read in to everything you see on the internet, right?
Garth: Yeah, I mean I I think it r reminds me of of the kerfluffle around Trafalgar voting. first they get it right, then they get it really wrong. and and it's again, as you as you said, it's just a a reminder of of understanding your sources, what those sources, where they're getting their information from, and how then how you balance that information, weigh it as you're making your trades, either on predicted or any of the prediction markets. It it's it's You have to ha it's gotta be trustworthy. And if if something smells a little funny, you know, like that poll, the LA mayor poll and and talking about Spencer Pratt voters, you know, i i it just doesn't feel right. So go check it out and and make sure that you've got your your numbers right and or or put a little less emphasis on on those numbers. you know.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. What what I wanna add is that this is very distinct from high quality pollsters who are transparent about how they do things and they just get it wrong. Re and Seltzer, Iowa 2024. and that's actually a poll that frankly I traded on back in 2024. I that poll, you know, gave me a certain lean. And I I put too much faith in in a pollster that I trust in the past that got things right. but it's a good reminder that it you know, not that Ann Seltzer was was faking her poll or you know completely just r like went downhill after a certain point. It's just sometimes the the average you know margin of error and and you you just get the wrong sample size. And and we have talked in recent weeks about who we're actually polling and who we're asking and and how are you making up your sample. and are you just kind of dragging and dropping people into the buckets and then saying, well it's gonna be, you know, 50-50 and it's gonna be this racial group and this racial group and this percent. so I I think we more and more see you need to use polling averages, you need to not take too much stock in the polling, but it is going to give you a really good margin to of what to expect on election night, especially in the general. so we should be able to track like, okay, come general election night, Republicans are either gonna win say the the national races or or the Senate races. They're they're gonna win it by just a slim margin, or all the way up to Democrats basically sweeping all those Senate races. Maybe it's six of seven or or or seven of eight potential races that they can win, something like that. It's it's it's really good to know. maybe we could just do a quick little walk back or or we could do a quick run through of our time on the podcast, Garth. I don't know what was your favorite moment, memory episode. You got anything for me?
Garth: I like the the Nostradamus stuff that we did. that was a a really popular one. kind of in in keeping with
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: what we do here at Predict It. I mean, just trying to be a pr good progr prognosticators, consistent pro prognosticators
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: at that. no, I I think I've just generally enjoyed my time here with you and and and speaking about politics in in in the way that we do. I mean, whether we're talking about you know, the World Cup and those things that come with that and you know, all the different variations, viewpoints, from New York and and from Florida
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
Garth: and from abroad, all that has been kind of a lot of fun.
Jacob Studwell: It's been a lot of fun. I've had so much fun with you. I mean, look, my favorite anytime we can watch a video together, I think that's the most fun part. How much
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: fun do we have with that AI attack ad on
Garth: The James Fish back.
Jacob Studwell: Fishback? Yes, just just 'cause it
Garth: it's brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: goes with last night, but s so much fun. I'm gonna watch that many times throughout my life, but gl glad to watch it through three times with you on the on the pot. But we've done you know that kind of not serious stuff. may maybe how politics crosses over to again the World Cup. You mentioned it. that kind of stuff really does matter. we talked so much about gas prices, which is so funny because I don't have a car. but then also just my interviews like I went from really, really legitimate people like Anthony Vinci, who is you know former national intelligence officer. And we're talking about really intense high-level stuff. And then I talk about astrology with the folks who also get just as intense and just as serious about how they present things. But you you go to the both ends of the spectrum and you they actually end up saying similar similar things. again, which is that discernment piece I mentioned earlier. so those interviews are are just a lot of fun. Bradley Tusk giving us the lay of the land, he he called New York. race so long before it actually happened, even when it got tight in there, he was like, Mike is gonna win. Michael Asher did end up winning. So we we got some fun calls here. I don't know, do you do do you remember a call that you might have made on the podcast that is like your best call in the last few months?
Garth: I was gonna say I was I was I was thinking about the best call, the the worst calls. what what was it the the was it the shutdown that I called or it was something that I that just completely blew up. It was at the very beginning when we started doing this. And it might have been in the shutdown. It's like there was no way they're
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. I think it was the shutdown.
Garth: gonna shut down the government. I think it was the shutdown. No way they're gonna shut it down.
Jacob Studwell: Yep. Yep.
Garth: And then lo and behold, they managed to do it. They couldn't avoid it.
Jacob Studwell: Yep. Yep. Totally. That was on like episode two or three or something like that. You were like very poo-pooing the shutdown. and then it did happen. So that was a lot
Garth: Yeah. I was like that this is not gonna happen.
Jacob Studwell: of fun. one thing I wanna recap. We did have Victoria Woolley on for a Democratic candidate draft for twenty twenty eight. And she
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: drafted Kamala Harris. actually called her Kamala, but that's okay. we love her anyway, and Not only did she get a lot of shit for calling her Kamala, but she got a lot of shit from us for drafting her. And now the contract is is in the two two place. So it's actually not that bad of a pick looking back. she's definitely stayed relevant, Kamala, and and at least has like a lane potentially for twenty twenty eight. But I do remember when she drafted Kamala, we were both like, what? Are you kidding me?
Garth: yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, I I mean I I still don't like it. I but I think she's getting enough she's getting enough screen time and sound time right now that she's definitely she's more present than she was at the beginning of the year. B beginning of the year she was dormant. She was non existent. Wait, I she didn't even show up until what, May? She like she it wasn't until sh like sh sh she doesn't exist. There was a book, yes. And a tour, I think.
Jacob Studwell: There was a book, though. There was a book, and that was when she kind of started the tour. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: Yeah. But still, I mean i i i it it's it's AOC in John Offsoff's world right now.
Jacob Studwell: No, look, I don't like it either. And I wouldn't have drafted her. I'm with you. I'm with you. I and and it's funny because Gavin Newsom's still holding the the one spot there. So I also with you that I don't see Newsom taking that. But if you I mean, look, I would have drafted
Garth: He's
Jacob Studwell: Kamala like maybe a round or two later. Like I I at some point you get to her and you're like, well, name recognition. You know, like you will draft her eventually. I think Victoria probably drafted her either like the first round or the second round, something like that.
Garth: It was it was way early. It was like a total reach. Yes. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: It was very early.
Garth: She she went with the kicker in the second round and we're all like, Whoa, what are you doing? You know?
Jacob Studwell: She was like, it's the best kicker.
Garth: Ever. Who who's the guy who played for the Raid Raiders with the Florida State? Yay Yanovsky, Yankovsky. That the the Raiders picked him in like the second round. Jenkowski. I sounds close. Yeah, yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Jankowski. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. L Legatron. I think we c we called him Legatron, if I remember correctly.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, he's That's basically what she did. She she she did that in the in her draft.
Jacob Studwell: I love your deep Florida state knowledge. That's that's good stuff, Garth. We will never we will never miss your or sorry, we will always miss your Floridian European flavor. I mean it's so specific. Like how many Floridian
Garth: It is.
Jacob Studwell: Europeans do you meet? I just doesn't really exist.
Garth: They're all right. They're usually passing through or heading right back to Florida.
Jacob Studwell: That's true. That's true. All right. On that note, Garth, thank you so much for being my partner on this journey. Really appreciate it. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckum,
Garth: Course.
Jacob Studwell: this has been the Predicted Podcast. Thank you all for watching, for listening, for commenting. We really, really appreciate the discussion. Please trade on predicted.org. we're a fantastic site, nonpartisan. we we try to be as down the middle as possible and and just call things how we see them. and we appreciate our traders for doing the same. So thanks everyone and have a great, great, great general election. We're looking forward to to more votes coming in. Beautiful. Beautiful, beautiful.
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: under the sun. Maybe you want to talk about life and and death and your children. And I don't know. Like let's let's let's do it all, right?
Garth: I mean how how much time do you have?
Jacob Studwell: Not too much. Let's let's get to it. No. All right.
Garth: Okay.
Jacob Studwell: All right. so so I want to quickly dive into what happened last night. ended up being not too exciting of a night going into it. coming out of it, a few headlines. Angie Nixon, right?
Garth: Yep. From Jacksonville.
Jacob Studwell: Angie Nixon took a dub against Alexander Vinman. Vinman had like $20 million raised. Nixon had, you know, barely even a million dollars raised. So this is another socialist win here. the Vinman stuff. I mean, we haven't I don't think we said his name once in the last 36 weeks or however long we've been doing this. He's he's like a carpet bagger, right? That's not like He's not like a real Floridian who was like, I'm gonna represent my state. And what's interesting too is that, you know, you hear a lot of things. Basically, since twenty sixteen, the Democratic Party establishment down there in Florida has really just ceased to exist. I mean, they've just given up. they're they act like it's, you know, Alabama or Mississippi in in cer some ways. So it's actually not that surprising that the socials candidate wins here in this primary, even with the money disparity, but when there's not too much of an establishment to beat, the socialist candidate is gonna have an easier time.
Garth: I I I mean, yeah, I agree. And and you know, the Republicans kind of run up the numbers on registration, surpassing the Democrats and they've kind of turned Florida under DeSantis. you know,
Jacob Studwell: Okay.
Garth: w which we can get to a little bit later. I mean, filling his shoes will will be quite difficult. I mean, as as a the red resident Floridian here who hasn't lived there in a long time. you know, the Angie Nixon thing is is just is is fascinating because, you know, D D D D HQ wasn't even polling against her wasn't she wasn't even she was a speck in the distance and yet she cruised right past Windman for the Democratic nomination for Senate. not to say that she has much of a chance or should have much of a chance against Moody in the the finale, but it is fascinating that she could do so well. I mean just I mean, how how does Vinman spend that much money, raise that much money, and lose by that much to somebody nobody knew existed?
Jacob Studwell: N not a good candidate.
Garth: But it
Jacob Studwell: He does have some name ID though. Vinman is like a real person who
Garth: I but like sh
Jacob Studwell: political people know.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: That's the thing.
Garth: Right. Like I I could okay I could understand if he he was a re running as a Republican and they were like, we hate you because of what you did. But we didn't have that. He was running as a Democrat and I mean she won by a hundred and fifty thousand votes. I mean a hundred and fifty
Jacob Studwell: Pretty that's pretty crazy.
Garth: thousand votes. That's a lot.
Jacob Studwell: I mean when you hear that and then you look at the Alaska primary results and you just look at the the vote counts on that and you're like, wow, like the you know, the the party the the winner of the party primary in a state in which, you know, Democrats are very much out of it in Florida, or at least have been for now a a decade plus, and you
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: see like Paltola, a hundred and twenty thousand votes, I think, just total. I think it was something like that.
Garth: what would they have eighty pr they're at eighty percent counted right now? No, she has a she's at sixty three thousand votes. Sullivan is at fifty six thousand. Yeah, you double that. You double that, yeah. It's it's okay.
Jacob Studwell: Sixty-three. I mean, I doubled it. I doubled it by accident. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And in Alaska there's only six hundred thousand registered voters total. So it's funny that she can get a hundred and twenty thousand more or a hundred and fifty thousand more votes than Vin Min. it's it's just always it's it's good to know how large the state is. It's very important, I think. because the larger
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: the state, the less each vote matters. And that's why we talk about Alaska so much, because it's just a smaller state. It's easier to win. It's that simple.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah. And now we have on top of that we have two Danes. Two Dan Sullivans running in in the final. I mean this it's it's a marketing coup for us here. here at Predict It. We get to talk about the two Danes,
Jacob Studwell: my god, two dance.
Garth: the two Sullivans, all at the same time. They're both Republicans. what a gift from above.
Jacob Studwell: The two dams. It really is a good gift. We appreciate
Garth: I made it.
Jacob Studwell: the political gods. Is he a plant? Do we think he's a plant?
Garth: He says he's not. He says, Well he apologizes my grandfather's name. What am I supposed to do? He's just he's just a junior. He's
Jacob Studwell: He says he's not. I mean, it's
Garth: a
Jacob Studwell: he's got he's got thirty two hundred votes in this primary. It's it's hard
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: to not think that he's a plant, you know? Like it's it would take a lot of convincing. I haven't seen much of him, which makes me think he's kind of just there for the name on the ballot.
Garth: No. Well I mean the what six they had sixteen was it fifteen or sixteen candidates. Sixteen candidates in this race. The top four make it. And really it's just it's just it's a quirk of of the Alaska system. we love our systems, we love our quirks across the country. We've got fifty states, fifty different rules. I mean, because you know, you've got forty s forty eight and forty two percent of the vote, I mean, all chalked up, and then there are gonna be two other guys. under five percent or in this case under three percent who get to go to the big dance in November. And one of is named Dan Sullivan.
Jacob Studwell: And one of them happened to have the same name as the other guy who got fifty six thousand votes. I mean, it's just just
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: ha just coincidental. It's it's crazy.
Garth: It's it's hilarious. It it really is. yeah, I just
Jacob Studwell: It's absurd.
Garth: you know, what can you do?
Jacob Studwell: I mean, let's talk about really quickly. There's also two Begage's in the Alaska governor's
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: race and the Alaska at large house district,
Garth: Well
Jacob Studwell: the one house member that they have. one's a Republican, one's a Democrat. We gotta
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: figure out this whole name thing. Like Alaska d needs more names. I think more different names, something like that.
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: but Beggage Alaska, very confusing. Too confusing for me.
Garth: I I think the names that's hilarious. And I think the Republicans could be in trouble. I think it's a question of what kind of turnout. I I think Sullivan could be really in the incumbent Republicans gonna be in a lot of trouble here.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: I think the Republican Party's gonna have to spend a bunch of money to figure out how to clarify or get Dan Sullivan to drop off, but even if you get him to drop off, you know. His name is gonna be on the ballot, I presume, or unless
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: there's a actually I think there's a deadline. I think there's a deadline for it August thirtieth, maybe. for being on the ballot for
Jacob Studwell: Okay. So they have eleven days.
Garth: November. So they have eleven days to remove him from from the show. But even even still he's you know, that puts him at fifty nine thousand votes, just shy of sixty. That means Pellot Paltola would still win by by three thousand votes. so
Jacob Studwell: Yeah.
Garth: they have some work work to do there to to save that seat. And you know, it's a seat that shouldn't really be in play. Again.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, I I will say I'm not gonna read too much into the primary results, even though it's nice and we get a nice bunch Republicans versus Democrats head to head, but it's still a different electorate. People are still going to come out more so in November. So it's still a a turnout race and you know, Sullivan could easily just drive up all the Republican I mean historically Republican state, right? So he can really drive up the Republican turnout in November. I know Peltola had a had a lot of turnover. In terms of her campaign last week, fired campaign manager, lots of staff, lots of concern there. I actually think sometimes that's a good thing in a campaign when you you start to feel like you're losing steam. And what's great, this is a classic baseball thing, by the way, is where you fire your manager right before you're going to you know that you're going to win a bunch of games. So that's what this is. This is Peltola. Firing the manager right before she wins the primary because you want the the new manager to feel like, okay, we hired our guy, we got a couple wins, we have momentum, this is a great change. So I think it was actually very smart timing there. Clearly, she's got some experienced people on hand. I mean, I know this is Chuck Schumer's girl, so maybe he's in in the ear of Peltola there, but sm smart moves and It's also a good way to just kind of get your name back out there. there's a lot of competitive races and Alaska again, small state, so it's tougher to to compete with the seven other races that you got going on in terms of name recogn or newsworthiness. so it's it's a good it's a good sign, I think, even though it seems like a bad sign on paper.
Garth: Yeah, I mean it's the new manager balance, right? W we have it in so in soccer as well. you know, there's a hope to r rectify things and and you know, instantly the players are playing for for the new managers because the new manager doesn't know them. but no, yeah, i i it's a good good timing to do it. her fundraising operation is fantastic. Stuh was definitely crushing incumbent Sullivan. And you know, seven to seven million to two million in the second quarter. you know, it it's she's got some momentum. What is interesting is a little sidebar, it's not predicted questions. Elon Musk has got a
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: he's spending big money on trying to remove this ranked choice system in Alaska. so kind of an odd oddity to keep your eye on as we move closer to November. who knew?
Jacob Studwell: It has failed the Republicans a few times in the past. so I'm not surprised this is the move, but it's one of those, like, but explain why, you know? Like it's it's a tough one to explain
Garth: Definitely.
Jacob Studwell: to the voters. Like, actually, we want less of your opinions, you know, and that doesn't really work out. There's a Missouri ballot. referendum that basically that that failed I think in every single district across the state of Missouri and it was like we're gonna take the power away from voters to put up I think it's put put up laws to referenda or something like that, but we're gonna leave the power in the hands of the state assembly, s something like that, where it was taking power away from voters and it lost like 70, 30 or 80, 20, something crazy. and that's just one of those things where it's like, how do you explain that to voters in a way that makes them wanna vote for it? People in America don't wanna want less power, they want more. more d democratization, not less. So it's it's really that's gonna be a tough sell.
Garth: Yeah, definitely. Definitely. But he's got lots of money. So, you know, you never know.
Jacob Studwell: I was gonna say the more races we chase after with this money disparity, the less I believe it money in politics actually matters. I mean, sure, money's great. It's gonna it's gonna probably win you a close race or two, it more times than than not, but money's not gonna just fly you to a seat. I that's what we learned with Vinman. How many times this this cycle have we seen money not really do much for you?
Garth: I I it I was gonna s you you're you're hitting the n you're hitting the nail on the head right there. I mean, 'cause 'cause that's kind of the pivot back to Florida or for some of the house races. but you I mean, really all I wa the point I was gonna make is that, you know, Musk did spend a lot of money in the last election and it made a difference. But what we're seeing so far in this this cycle is the money is not going that far. It really just is
Jacob Studwell: Okay.
Garth: you know, you saw it in Texas in the Cornyn versus the Attorney General what Paxton. you saw it in Michigan, and then you've seen it all over the place actually. I mean Vinman is the last one, obviously. but th there's a lot of money being spent and it's not going very far.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah. No, I I'm I'm with you.
Garth: It's it's it's not
Jacob Studwell: Looking at Alaska polling right now, I'm seeing so Alaska Survey Research poll back in early June had Peltola up five. You had a New York Times Siena University poll, probably the highest quality poll, although not the largest sample size of the bunch, having Sullivan plus two. But they actually didn't have the other Dan Sullivan included. So I always I don't love those polls where you don't have The other Dan Sullivan. I think that's going to be it's gonna
Garth: All the people?
Jacob Studwell: be a big factor. And then you had an Alaska Survey Research poll again without the other Dan Sullivan at Pul Peltola up to. And then there was a Data for Progress poll. They did it three different times, one with four candidates, and I think they might have gotten the last candidate incorrect. They had Hikes or Hikes instead of Leslie. But regardless,
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Peltola was up six, five, and six in a four-candidate race, a three-candidate race with the other Dan Sullivan, and a two-candidate race. So the polling is definitely starting to move closer to Peltola. probably a good sign, but again, it's you're you're kinda I don't know if these are technically primary polls. Like, am I buying into Even though the primary is, you know, a jungle
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: primary or or a non party primary, are are we are we buying into them getting the electorate right? Is this for the general? Like I I it's hard to keep track.
Garth: Well, exactly. And then when the pool the pool is so big, I mean, sixteen candidates, that's really just unwieldy. I mean, it polling people are gonna have to make make choices. I mean, you mentioned what's his name? Heikes, Gerald. he earlier this morning when I woke up, he was in in the fourth slot and now he's been surpassed by David Leslie. So and you know,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Right.
Garth: I think hi he's a bit bit of a bigger name, could be wrong, but my understanding for what I could could see this morning and and a little bit before is that he was a bigger name to come through with a little bit more name recognition. And you know, he might
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: not make it. I mean there's geez, there's what, thirty votes in between twenty votes between the two of at the moment, with eighty percent of the vote counted according to the AP. but yeah, i i it's tight. I think this is and it's gonna go for for a little longer. I mean obviously big state might take a little while to collect c collect and count some votes. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, it is funny. I mean, they're big state, but not as big as I don't know. We we go back and forth. This is the whole vote counting thing, right? I think I give credit to Alaska. It's a giant state, it's inaccessible, right? It's like in some places I feel like you have to fly from city to city. It's not like California. So we're always comparing these vote counting operations to California. And you know, I give credit
Garth: Yeah. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: to Alaska getting in most of their votes, and it's a tough state all in all. what's funny about the state is again with the pollability of it, it's it's a small state in terms of population, again, 600,000 registered voters. So each sample size, it might look smaller, like it might look like another poll, and they're gonna have like 600 likely voters or something like that. But it's a much more representative sample just because it's you're you're trying to sample something much smaller. So I think I will put a little bit more stock into the the Alaska polling. versus primary polling in Michigan or primary polling in California. And I do want to pivot from there. If we go on to a big polling story, and a big story in terms of prediction markets was this fake polling firm called Median Strategies,
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: which released bogus bogus polls or just fake polls across the Cal the LA mayor race, showing Karen Bass up 11 points. They released a fake poll
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: in Nevada in the governor's race, showing Lombardo, the incumbent Republican governor, up six or five points. And then they also released a fake poll in Wisconsin showing Francesca Hong up 20 points. So it's one of those things that reminds you you have to trust the sources that you're going to. And what I really love, I mean, we use fifty plus one a lot on this podcast. if the if if this podcast continued on, I I was going to actually interview Mary Radcliffe from 50 plus one later on this year, closer to the to the general. And it they do great work. They always reach out to every single pollster. All the all the numbers that they get, all the polls that they get are verified, and they have to understand their process to actually upload and and post the the polls that they get. So you do and and we A lot on this podcast about discernment, right? We've heard that from multiple different guests. Is that the future challenge of politics of being on online is going to be discernment? we love AI ads, but it you need to know that it's AI, right? So it's it's discerning
Garth: Right.
Jacob Studwell: which polls are real, which pollsters are real, which numbers are real, which numbers are less real, not less real, but you know, you you can't read in a hundred percent to every single number you see. And it's just interesting, we got a fake pulse here. I mean, what what a big red flag right
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: before the general. Like, don't read in to everything you see on the internet, right?
Garth: Yeah, I mean I I think it r reminds me of of the kerfluffle around Trafalgar voting. first they get it right, then they get it really wrong. and and it's again, as you as you said, it's just a a reminder of of understanding your sources, what those sources, where they're getting their information from, and how then how you balance that information, weigh it as you're making your trades, either on predicted or any of the prediction markets. It it's it's You have to ha it's gotta be trustworthy. And if if something smells a little funny, you know, like that poll, the LA mayor poll and and talking about Spencer Pratt voters, you know, i i it just doesn't feel right. So go check it out and and make sure that you've got your your numbers right and or or put a little less emphasis on on those numbers. you know.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. What what I wanna add is that this is very distinct from high quality pollsters who are transparent about how they do things and they just get it wrong. Re and Seltzer, Iowa 2024. and that's actually a poll that frankly I traded on back in 2024. I that poll, you know, gave me a certain lean. And I I put too much faith in in a pollster that I trust in the past that got things right. but it's a good reminder that it you know, not that Ann Seltzer was was faking her poll or you know completely just r like went downhill after a certain point. It's just sometimes the the average you know margin of error and and you you just get the wrong sample size. And and we have talked in recent weeks about who we're actually polling and who we're asking and and how are you making up your sample. and are you just kind of dragging and dropping people into the buckets and then saying, well it's gonna be, you know, 50-50 and it's gonna be this racial group and this racial group and this percent. so I I think we more and more see you need to use polling averages, you need to not take too much stock in the polling, but it is going to give you a really good margin to of what to expect on election night, especially in the general. so we should be able to track like, okay, come general election night, Republicans are either gonna win say the the national races or or the Senate races. They're they're gonna win it by just a slim margin, or all the way up to Democrats basically sweeping all those Senate races. Maybe it's six of seven or or or seven of eight potential races that they can win, something like that. It's it's it's really good to know. maybe we could just do a quick little walk back or or we could do a quick run through of our time on the podcast, Garth. I don't know what was your favorite moment, memory episode. You got anything for me?
Garth: I like the the Nostradamus stuff that we did. that was a a really popular one. kind of in in keeping with
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: what we do here at Predict It. I mean, just trying to be a pr good progr prognosticators, consistent pro prognosticators
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: at that. no, I I think I've just generally enjoyed my time here with you and and and speaking about politics in in in the way that we do. I mean, whether we're talking about you know, the World Cup and those things that come with that and you know, all the different variations, viewpoints, from New York and and from Florida
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
Garth: and from abroad, all that has been kind of a lot of fun.
Jacob Studwell: It's been a lot of fun. I've had so much fun with you. I mean, look, my favorite anytime we can watch a video together, I think that's the most fun part. How much
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: fun do we have with that AI attack ad on
Garth: The James Fish back.
Jacob Studwell: Fishback? Yes, just just 'cause it
Garth: it's brilliant.
Jacob Studwell: goes with last night, but s so much fun. I'm gonna watch that many times throughout my life, but gl glad to watch it through three times with you on the on the pot. But we've done you know that kind of not serious stuff. may maybe how politics crosses over to again the World Cup. You mentioned it. that kind of stuff really does matter. we talked so much about gas prices, which is so funny because I don't have a car. but then also just my interviews like I went from really, really legitimate people like Anthony Vinci, who is you know former national intelligence officer. And we're talking about really intense high-level stuff. And then I talk about astrology with the folks who also get just as intense and just as serious about how they present things. But you you go to the both ends of the spectrum and you they actually end up saying similar similar things. again, which is that discernment piece I mentioned earlier. so those interviews are are just a lot of fun. Bradley Tusk giving us the lay of the land, he he called New York. race so long before it actually happened, even when it got tight in there, he was like, Mike is gonna win. Michael Asher did end up winning. So we we got some fun calls here. I don't know, do you do do you remember a call that you might have made on the podcast that is like your best call in the last few months?
Garth: I was gonna say I was I was I was thinking about the best call, the the worst calls. what what was it the the was it the shutdown that I called or it was something that I that just completely blew up. It was at the very beginning when we started doing this. And it might have been in the shutdown. It's like there was no way they're
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. I think it was the shutdown.
Garth: gonna shut down the government. I think it was the shutdown. No way they're gonna shut it down.
Jacob Studwell: Yep. Yep.
Garth: And then lo and behold, they managed to do it. They couldn't avoid it.
Jacob Studwell: Yep. Yep. Totally. That was on like episode two or three or something like that. You were like very poo-pooing the shutdown. and then it did happen. So that was a lot
Garth: Yeah. I was like that this is not gonna happen.
Jacob Studwell: of fun. one thing I wanna recap. We did have Victoria Woolley on for a Democratic candidate draft for twenty twenty eight. And she
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: drafted Kamala Harris. actually called her Kamala, but that's okay. we love her anyway, and Not only did she get a lot of shit for calling her Kamala, but she got a lot of shit from us for drafting her. And now the contract is is in the two two place. So it's actually not that bad of a pick looking back. she's definitely stayed relevant, Kamala, and and at least has like a lane potentially for twenty twenty eight. But I do remember when she drafted Kamala, we were both like, what? Are you kidding me?
Garth: yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, no, I I mean I I still don't like it. I but I think she's getting enough she's getting enough screen time and sound time right now that she's definitely she's more present than she was at the beginning of the year. B beginning of the year she was dormant. She was non existent. Wait, I she didn't even show up until what, May? She like she it wasn't until sh like sh sh she doesn't exist. There was a book, yes. And a tour, I think.
Jacob Studwell: There was a book, though. There was a book, and that was when she kind of started the tour. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: Yeah. But still, I mean i i i it it's it's AOC in John Offsoff's world right now.
Jacob Studwell: No, look, I don't like it either. And I wouldn't have drafted her. I'm with you. I'm with you. I and and it's funny because Gavin Newsom's still holding the the one spot there. So I also with you that I don't see Newsom taking that. But if you I mean, look, I would have drafted
Garth: He's
Jacob Studwell: Kamala like maybe a round or two later. Like I I at some point you get to her and you're like, well, name recognition. You know, like you will draft her eventually. I think Victoria probably drafted her either like the first round or the second round, something like that.
Garth: It was it was way early. It was like a total reach. Yes. Yes.
Jacob Studwell: It was very early.
Garth: She she went with the kicker in the second round and we're all like, Whoa, what are you doing? You know?
Jacob Studwell: She was like, it's the best kicker.
Garth: Ever. Who who's the guy who played for the Raid Raiders with the Florida State? Yay Yanovsky, Yankovsky. That the the Raiders picked him in like the second round. Jenkowski. I sounds close. Yeah, yeah.
Jacob Studwell: Jankowski. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. L Legatron. I think we c we called him Legatron, if I remember correctly.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah, he's That's basically what she did. She she she did that in the in her draft.
Jacob Studwell: I love your deep Florida state knowledge. That's that's good stuff, Garth. We will never we will never miss your or sorry, we will always miss your Floridian European flavor. I mean it's so specific. Like how many Floridian
Garth: It is.
Jacob Studwell: Europeans do you meet? I just doesn't really exist.
Garth: They're all right. They're usually passing through or heading right back to Florida.
Jacob Studwell: That's true. That's true. All right. On that note, Garth, thank you so much for being my partner on this journey. Really appreciate it. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckum,
Garth: Course.
Jacob Studwell: this has been the Predicted Podcast. Thank you all for watching, for listening, for commenting. We really, really appreciate the discussion. Please trade on predicted.org. we're a fantastic site, nonpartisan. we we try to be as down the middle as possible and and just call things how we see them. and we appreciate our traders for doing the same. So thanks everyone and have a great, great, great general election. We're looking forward to to more votes coming in. Beautiful. Beautiful, beautiful.
