Sharp or Square - NFL WEEK 4 BETTING PREVIEW: Patriots-Bills, Rams-Eagles and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:26
Speaker 2: Chad, it is the best time of year, buddy. We got baseball, hockey startin'. Football's in full swing. Basketball's about to start. LeBron James. So I'm feeling it right now. This is my favorite time of year. We got all the sports coming up.
00:00:40
Speaker 1: I'm glad you're feeling so good. I'm feeling amazing, Simon, because I think it's fair to say that last night when the Chicago Bears hosted the Philadelphia Eagles, that Case Keenum, whose awe-inspiring fountain of youth, Heartwarming performance for the Chicago Bears in a perfectly executed beatdown of the Philadelphia Eagles. Case Keenum, top five quarterback in the NFL.
00:01:20
Speaker 2: Bears quarterbacks since 2024 to have a game with multiple touchdown passes, zero interceptions, zero sacks, 70 touchdowns. Complete percentage, completion percentage on 30 attempts. Case Keenum won in 36 starts. Caleb Williams, zero. You got a quarterback controversy in Chicago.
00:01:42
Speaker 1: We have a massive quarterback controversy.
00:01:43
Speaker 2: Whatever you do, Chicago, do not pay Caleb Williams. That's what that says to me.
00:01:48
Speaker 1: Ignore the six or seven. By the way, I want to be making fun of you for the Eagles, but I'm so overwhelmed by the Case Keenum performance. that my joy is overtaking my malicious intent. Ignore the six or seven throws that he made that could have been completely disastrous. A couple where Quinion Mitchell got his mitts on it. A couple others where he was thrown across his body, across the field, and without knowing what was going to happen on the other end, guys were wide open. This was a marriage of coach and QB who were perfectly in sync. right? It was a glorious demonstration, like something for everyone to feel good about. This dude's 38, but his processing is so fast and he's so good at figuring out, all right, this is where I'm going. I'm going to make an accurate throw mostly, and I'm going to do it in under two seconds.
00:02:40
Speaker 2: Boom.
00:02:41
Speaker 1: Like if Ben Johnson could create that, he kind of had that in Jared Goff, right? If he could create that in Caleb Williams, forget about the athleticism, half the athleticism, but double the processing. He'd be unstoppable in every single game because Case Keenum executed exactly what Ben Johnson was saying he had to execute perfectly.
00:03:03
Speaker 2: You could ask Case Keenum and play a thousand more games the rest of his life. He'll never be as lucky as he was in that game. Perfect game. They had a bunch of picks dropped and a bunch of defensive penalties. I mean, the refs were brutal in this game, honestly. Brutal. Not that it was a cheap shot on Hurts, but it kind of was. I mean, he hit him out of bounds. And obviously the Chicago doctor wanted to take his time looking at Hurts. And that's a whole other story for a different day. We've gotten back to like, I feel like things were before they were like 10 years ago where the country got super soft. I get we care about concussions. In the UFC, would it not be ridiculous if there was a blue tent in the UFC? And they were like, oh my God, this guy, he might have a concussion. Yes, he's fist fighting another man. This is the NFL. I still don't get what we're doing here. So, it hurts. I'm noticeably upset. One more stat before we go. Eagles defense. Fourth fewest sacks in the NFL. Worst in time to pressure. They don't have a single turnover. They don't have a pick, a fumble, anything. The only team in the league to be so. And they have given up more third downs than any other team in football. So, as much as you want to bash, you know, Eagles offense right now, which, yeah, they should be taking a bunch of crap. Eagles defense, real problem. So, A huge upcoming week for that Eagles team to bounce back. And Bears, yeah, like you said, if you're a fan, you got to be feeling pretty good. 2-1-1, you survived the first game without Caleb.
00:04:29
Speaker 1: Tell people what you told Matt Mitchell and I before we came on the air. Because I was ready to go after the Eagles, but you were so beaten. Tell people that. about your night last night.
00:04:44
Speaker 2: Not beat at all. I wish I cared more, Chad, but it's September. You're talking to a championship franchise, buddy. You'll get there. I got faith in you. Don't worry.
00:04:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:04:55
Speaker 2: I told Chad, as soon as Hertz got hit and they brought Andy Dalton in, I was with a lady friend and I already told her we could watch a movie after the game. As soon as Andy Dalton came in through that pick, I turned to her and I go, okay, we can watch this Oak Street movie. We don't have to. I'm not going to make you watch the rest of it because she gives me my Sunday's Bad enough she was nice enough to let me watch that game. But as soon as I was like, okay, this might be an Andy Dalton versus Case Keenum football game, I'll just follow it on my phone. I'm not going to make this girl watch it. So, yeah, I'm going to go back. I am going to go back and watch the second half. But, yeah, I checked out on that game pretty quick.
00:05:30
Speaker 1: Simon sacrificing for relationships. You're basically an adult, Simon. The carnage continues in the NFL. Meanwhile, Brian Burns of the Giants torn ACL. Devon Achan of the Miami Dolphins, torn ACL. Travis Atien, although he pronounces it Achan, I think, of the Saints is out. Brees Hall of the Jets may miss time. J.J. McCarthy traded for a fifth rounder to back up Jameis Winston, whose QBR is hovering in the low double digits. Simon, it's hard enough handicapping these games with the starters. let alone with a bevy of backups. We went two and three last week, two losses by the hook. We did go four for five in our underdog round robin parlay, hitting the Broncos, Colts, Browns, and Raiders, only losing with the Jets. We did hit Chad's choice, which was the Jags. We hit Simon Says, which was the Raiders. We lost by a combined one point on our brass balls in closing times yesterday. picks, which were the Chargers and the Dolphins. Look, that's the breaks of the game. It's why I think on Sunday night, like we weren't devastated about going two and three because we had so many games where we could have gotten it right. And just in the final minutes, you choose five and it doesn't go your way sometimes. Now we get to do it all over again. Simon, it's our Tuesday week four NFL show. Today, you're going to hear our Chad's choice. Listeners and viewers will get our Simon Says. We're going to review the entire slate. for our free $ 25, 000 NFL Pick'em Contest. You can still sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers get paid $ 10, 000 to first place, totally free to enter. Simon, this is where I would normally reference how people can join the Discord that you love, but it seems you have some supporters for your frustration with how often I'm mentioning it. So, I'm going to refer to a tweet from at Erwin P. Fletcher, that's Erwin with an E, who asked me on Twitter, how many books do I have to buy to get at Chad Millman to stop talking about his Discord like a 13-year-old gamer? Hashtag sharper square. Here's the answer, Erwin. I'm going to give people a little bit of, this is a little bit behind the curtain on the book business. You sell as many pre-order books as you can because you want to build momentum for your books. So retailers want to put it in premium places. So your publisher gets excited and wants to publish more books, right? That's the game now. Unfortunately, I love writing books. It's what I want to continue to do. I have this show that I get to do with Simon and Matt Mitchell. I did a book about sports betting. I would love if everyone who listens to the show would buy the book. It's a natural audience to buy the book. We have tens of thousands of listeners. I just want to sell about 2,500 books before the pub date of January 12th. That is a tiny percentage. It's less than 4% of our audience. It's barely 3% of our audience, all of whom have some interest in gambling. Help me live out my dreams, people. As soon as I hit that number, as soon as I hit 2,500, I will stop talking about it. In fact, for anyone who pre-orders 10 books or more, I will do a private book club chat for you and your friends, either via Zoom or if possible, I'll travel in person. Either way, mail your proof of purchase to sharp or square at the volume.com. As soon as I hit that number, I will not mention this anymore. And it's not inconceivable given the size of our audience, how many people like betting. Sorry to show, but it's the way of the world and it's how I want to make my living. So hopefully, Everybody can go buy the number. And also, if you do pre-order at readthenumber.com, you'll get all the bonus stuff. I'll raise money for St.
00:09:43
Speaker 2: Jude's.
00:09:43
Speaker 1: So there you go, Erwin with an E. This is your chance to lead the chains you want to see. Don't forget, feedback is a gift.
00:09:54
Speaker 2: No, they just fast forward that whole portion. Before we go, though, how many bestsellers do you have, Chad?
00:10:00
Speaker 1: I have four bestsellers.
00:10:02
Speaker 2: My man.
00:10:04
Speaker 1: But you know, the thing is in publishing, like you don't sell that many books. And so you don't make that much money. Like all this publishing stuff, it's a labor of freaking love. Like I just like to write the books and tell these stories and, And I wish it was the only thing I had to do to make a living, but it's not. And so when you get an opportunity to sell the books, you want to sell as many as you can to make the list so you can get another chance to sell more books and write more books.
00:10:31
Speaker 2: Chad, any artist that paints for money is no true artist.
00:10:36
Speaker 1: Then they're just hobbyists. Thursday Night Football from the shores of Lake Erie, 8.15 p.m. Eastern on Amazon Prime. Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Cleveland Browns are two and a half point underdogs. It's come down a little bit from three. We talked about it on Sunday on the show. The Bengals defense made Aaron Rodgers look young again. They also gave up 7.5 yards per rush to Jalen Warren. The Panthers defense made Deshaun a winner. It's a very low total. We can't put this in the contest. I want to take the Browns. If I can get it at three, I'm probably still inclined to take the Browns at two and a half, but we should mention the total as well. Cause he's primetime unders just keep hitting.
00:11:27
Speaker 2: Yeah. Auto bet Browns. We talked about Sunday night. Don't overthink this one. This is another, just you're playing the spot long-term winner. Um, the fact that this Brown squad we've joked every year, they're basically an auto player for us on Thursday nights. Uh, At home, Browns are 10-2 straight up, 9-3 against the spread as a franchise, and they've covered nine straight in a row. So I don't know why the Browns are terrible every other night, but on Thursday nights, that is their night, baby. So it's really about the public perception, right? That's what that number is telling me, where the Browns are so bad, it's always a short week, usually playing an interdivisional game that tends to be coming off a win. the public is always going to hammer that favorite side. So in the past, we've probably been getting a free extra two, three points. Honestly, every time the Browns played this three, I mean, the one that really jumps out to me is I think it was that bang. It was, they were like this juggernaut and the Browns had won maybe one or two game and they played the Browns in Cleveland on Halloween and the Browns blew them out. Like total random block type of game. Is that going to happen here? Not likely. Like we've just, we haven't seen Deshaun Watson be consistent enough to say that, but, I think what we've talked about is true. It doesn't matter that the Browns have changed coordinators defensively. That defense really played great at home in that week three against Bryce Young. Bryce Young, I think I talked about it, had 48 pass attempts. He led the league in passing yards last week, but they just mitigated all of it in the red zone. They bend, but they never broke, which is that's all you want from your defense. Who cares if you give up the most yards? As long as you're holding teams of three, that's a big deal. You talked about the Steelers. They had horrible red zone efficiency until last week. I mean, they had been struggling. The public is all the way back in on them after one good week. So, yeah, it's unfortunate. I would honestly at two and a half, I would have tried to fight to convince you to put the Browns in because it's just such a good number, such a good spot long term like this. I think most models will have this game at a pick like there really is no real difference. Like the Browns weakness has always been the quarterback. Two straight weeks, Deshaun Watson's brought this team back in one game. Any model is going to bump him up. Whenever you had him ranked before the season, you cannot move him up when he's done that. And, you know, he's been covering. So, yeah, it's really interesting where this line goes. Like Chad said, you can be patient, hope for the three to get back. Like I said, the public will keep hitting the Steelers. My fear is we have the same thing we had with the Colts, same thing we had with Denver. The pros come in, they bet off the two and a half, where now we're betting either plus one and a half or betting them as a favorite. So, We're grabbing now just in case. And if you want to make a bigger bet, if it does get back to three, great. If not, just hold your position at two and a half.
00:14:15
Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned the Browns defense. It is very possible. They're just getting better. Like they have really talented players. They have the new coordinator. They went to much more of a zone defense than they had been under Jim Schwartz. They can just be improving as they go week to week. And certainly we know historically they're better at home no matter who's playing on the defensive side of the ball. They will be doing it again this week. So, yeah, we like the Browns. You wouldn't have to fight me too hard to get the Browns in the contest. From London town, Indianapolis Colts versus the Washington Commanders. The Colts are three and a half point favorites. Simon, what do you think of the news today? that jayden daniels will practice in london this week.
00:15:06
Speaker 2: And terrible well what are they doing to this kid.
00:15:10
Speaker 1: Honest to god that's what i thought i'm like where's the value are you're not going to play him get this guy as healthy as you can possibly get him and then wrap him in bubble wrap.
00:15:22
Speaker 2: And i get it you can say well he's such a big step up for mariotta which i agree And Mariota got extremely lucky last week against Seattle, but he still made the throws. Like, they were big-time throws. Now he's either throwing it through the tightest window ever and it's working out for him, or he was just throwing total meat subs, as our guy Tom Brady was saying. Like, it's just– there's no in-between with Mariota. He's so inconsistent. So I get why they want him back, but the guy fell on his arm and his elbow dislocated. I mean– that's like baby level of human body. Like this guy can't fall right now in his own body weight and without dislocating his elbow. Now they're trying to rush him back a week later. It's, I mean, I love the Kurt Warner was like, Oh, he can play with it. He'll be fine. I played through a dislocated elbow and then his wife chimed in. Yeah. Now you came and use that arm. Like you've ruined that arm because you play it after popping your elbow out a week later. So this game, the numbers too, it's, It's so tempting to take the Commanders because it's like, who the hell are the Colts to be catching minus three and a half, let alone an England game? Like, I don't care how bad Washington is. Colts ain't that much better. Like, I know they just won a divisional game, but that game was so fluky in so many different ways. So I guess I'll stay away because I wanted to take the Commanders, but I know the trends, which is like, you basically just want to blindly bet these favorites in England. We know that the data says that where it's like, even if it's a public side, it's even better. Like the more public of a favorite it is in England. So anytime a team in England is a favorite to get above 70% of the bets, it's basically a 65% win rate. So I'll set this one out. I just can't help myself. I want to take the commanders, but I know I'm supposed to take the Colts. So I'll, I'll take the Colts in my pick pools, but I won't bet money on this game.
00:17:11
Speaker 1: Yeah. I didn't want to put this into the contest. And when I finished doing my research, I was on the Colts, uh, mainly because both teams had sort of the exact get-right spot last week. And if I'm looking for one team to regress and one team to maintain, I would bet on the Colts to maintain. I think their coaching staff is better. And I think overall their scheme is better, especially with Daniel Jones, if they can continue to progress a little bit. I'm not buying the Commanders. And given the fact that the favorites tend to be the way to go, In these international games, the Colts will be the side, but we will not be putting this one in the contest. Green Bay at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a four-point underdog. Baker is out, we know, with a dislocated thumb. So the quarterback is Jalen Daniels, undrafted rookie, played at Kansas. Since 2015, Simon, 0-3 home dogs in week four. 65% against the spread. And I was thinking to myself, like, yeah, but, you know, 0-3 dogs, they're not playing Jalen Daniels. And I thought to myself, if you're 0-3 and you're a dog at home, chances are your quarterback is not an elite level quarterback. So it doesn't really matter. Like, you bet the number, you take the ugly quarterback, and You roll with it. So I guess I'm on Tampa here.
00:18:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just like you said, it's rare to be 0-3 as a home dog the following week just because most of the betting– I mean, you see it with Houston, right? Usually the betting public or professionals will just blindly back that 0-3 team that's at home just because you expect to bounce back. But you have some amazing stats for you just about how bad these Packers and Bucs teams have been against the spread. since week 14 of last season, they are combined 0-14-1 against the spread, the Bucks and the Packers. Going back to week three of last season, they are 7-29 against the spread combined. So if you have just been fading these two teams, you have been living good. Unfortunately, we haven't. We love Baker. You know, we definitely had some misses there with him on this run where we just keep thinking, oh, they'll bounce back, right? And they have not. We all know the historical run. They're on 12 straight, no covers, this Bucs team. so the Bucs are begging you I mean it is up to now plus four in the Bucs they are literally begging you for Bucs money because even the professionals are just like well the devil you know I'm gonna take you know this Green Bay team that you could say what you want about them how poorly coached you are with all the penalties and everything like that but still got love and their defense as bad as they've been in some sense they're they're healthier and you know that front line is better than this bucks team like the bucks get no pressure i mean that vikings game kyler was begging for it i mean kyler he's learning a whole new offense you've seen him struggle but then their special teams let them down the bucks like they now they can't stop a punt return and just everything is going wrong for this bucks team so um I get the stats. All those trends, everything's going to point to us to want to take the Bucs. I don't know what I'm going to do here. I'm probably going to end up taking a position on Green Bay, but like you said, it's really a tough number because they're just begging you. This Green Bay team is terrible. I can't believe they're a four-point favorite, but I get why the Bucs are doing it. You have an undrafted rookie as your quarterback right now on the Bucs. He could come in, light the world up. We have no idea what he could be, or he could come in and throw four or five picks. It's really... Really no in-between with this guy.
00:21:06
Speaker 1: Could be Case Keenum. Could be that kind of magic. The problem with the Packers also, their offensive line, they're signing guys off the street. They just signed Mekhi Becton, who's been cut back and forth, back and forth by multiple teams. They don't have any healthy offensive linemen right now, and that's going to continue to be a thing. So even if the Bucs couldn't get pressure against the Vikings, who knows what they'll be able to scheme up against a really unhealthy team. patchwork offensive line for the Green Bay Packers. New York Jets at the Chicago Bears. The Chicago Bears are three and a half point favorites. What the Bears did last night had a huge impact on public perception because the line has moved up for the Bears from three to three and a half. We don't even know what the QB situation really is for the Bears because it could be Tyson Bajent. They don't have to stick with Case Keenum. Bajan is the guy who they committed to for their second string. Ben Johnson has said he thinks Bajan could be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Brees Hall might not play. Geno has been lighting up defenses. The Bears defense last night was brilliant, but could have been just as much about the Eagles offense. Before the game, money and tickets were coming in on the Jets. And now the line has moved to three and a half.
00:22:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting number. Can the Jets exploit it though? Like, you know, Hall might be hurt. He might not be playing this game. And as brilliant as you said that Bears defense played, I feel like they're giving up eight yards of pop to the running back.
00:22:51
Speaker 1: They were. In the first half, in the second half, obviously they locked it down and like Jalen was confused and Saquon didn't get any more yardage. Like, It was a much different game. They made adjustments. But in that first half, they were dreadful.
00:23:05
Speaker 2: It's just the Bears are a horrible defense. They're going to live and die off turnovers. And they won it last night, right? They had three turnovers. Yep. One from a backup running back, one from a backup quarterback. You can't quantify that. It's like I keep saying about this Bears defense. They're one of the worst defenses. They're going to live and die by the turnovers. They're living right now. I mean, it's working. They got it. two wins this year, both those wins came when they got a bunch of turnover. So the jets, you're going to expect, you know, and the offense to get yards and put up points. But at the same time, it's like, you know, you know, could turn the ball over. I mean, Gino is I sloppy quarterback. Now it's indoors and everything's perfect.
00:23:41
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:23:41
Speaker 2: We've seen Gino look great, but in bad conditions or, you know, uh, favorable throws, like, like we said, your, your defense or ball Hawks, they get turnovers and Gina's not scared to turn the ball over. So, another game where I obviously I want to take the Jets up plus three and a half I'm gonna try to be patient here because it's like maybe there's something I'm missing because Chad just said it's like this line's totally inflated off a game that you can't recreate like Case Keenum can't keep throwing off his back foot and dropping it right in the bucket it's just not possible he's 38 years old so he had the game of his life you really hope it's it's the other guy that comes in like you want to take as much as you want to be excited for what case just in that game, it's yeah. Chad just said, they want to play the, the number two, they really believe in. So yeah, it's a tempting line. Like we said, the without Paul, I feel like that's a big deal for the jets because as good as Alan is the number two running back, um, result has just been incredible. He's like a slept on guy where the general public doesn't know much about him because the jets are so bad, but he's a great running back. So, Yeah, like I said, I feel like I'm going to talk myself into taking the Bears because to me it's still a good number because I just feel like they're that much better of a team than the Jets. But I'll be patient and wait to see them announce who the quarterback will be for the Bears before I do that.
00:24:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, totally agree. I actually want to be on the Jets, but I want to know who's playing. I want to know. There's too little information in this game right now. The Bears opponents last night were the Philadelphia Eagles. They're hosting the Los Angeles Rams. They are currently three-point underdogs this weekend. Simon, do you have something to say?
00:25:25
Speaker 2: Simon says, give me them birds plus three.
00:25:29
Speaker 1: Simon says, presented by Polymarket, is the Eagles trading actually at three and a half and 55% on Polymarket. They are consensus three at every other option, the line move from two and a half to three off the loss last night. I'm a hundred percent with you here. Like this is, this is the exact time where public perception plays into the line move and people are going to want to bet the Rams, which is what we're seeing almost immediately. And it's so interesting. Like we don't know about Puka for week four. The status is listed as is purported as hopeful. probably more than we can say for how Eagles fans are feeling right now. But what's interesting to me is the Rams lost in primetime. Nothing from the game diminished them in the eyes of the public, whereas so much from the game last night diminished the Eagles value in the eyes of the public. Very ugly loss. So yeah, I love the Eagles here. And I bet by the time we're done researching all this, There are so many stats about how much better Jalen Hurts will be off of a loss at home as an underdog. It just feels like we need to rise to meet the moment.
00:26:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what you say. Try not to overreact. This Rams team was up 16-0 at halftime, and think about everything that had to go wrong for them in that second half for them to lose it. As horrible as the refs were last night, the refs were atrocious tonight. in that game against Denver. Stuff you've never even seen before. I think it was some crazy stat where they called five penalties in the final two minutes, which is the most since 2000. The Rams, if they had a real fan base, they'd still be losing their minds online, but luckily for them, they really don't. I just look at this all about the matchup of the number. Like Chad said, this was minus one and a half, minus one, and most books on the Eagles, it's moved four points now. You could say, well, Eagles have played terrible through three weeks. Totally agree. They have not looked good through three weeks, but Hurts has saved them in every game. And in that game, say Hurts didn't get knocked out. Is it 14 to 10 going into halftime? And if he is fully healthy, maybe does he play better in the second half? Yeah. Like he just didn't look right in that second half. He looked like he was lackadaisical and that his head wasn't in it. So you hope Hurts clears concussion, protocol exhaustion. If he's out, I'm not investing a single penny in Danny Dalton. So, This, to me, is a little bit of a hedge by the books, them having this number just bumped up. I could easily see it come totally down if it's all good with Hurts and he's fully go this weekend. We've talked about these trends and these stats. You know, all the time, I get it. McVay, boy genius. Stafford to Dan Orlowski. He's a top five quarterback ever to play this sport. They've never beat the Eagles, their own four in their careers together against the Eagles over the last Five seasons, their own four against the Eagles, losing those games by 9.8 points per game. So it sounds kind of crazy. Just like the Bears have owned the Eagles this last couple of years, the Eagles have owned the Rams. It's just certain teams match up well with other teams. And people are going to remember, right, the Eagles got really lucky on that block field goal last year to even cover that number, let alone win that game last year. Totally get it. Last year, though, they did have Puka, and they did have Verst. This game, they might have Miles Garrett once again. I mean, you've probably seen, like me, the Aaron Donald tape. He's not Aaron Donald of old. Like, I've never seen Aaron Donald get tossed around like I did in that Denver game. It was really alarming. And right now, the Eagles' biggest weakness is Cam Juergens. On that offensive line last night, there was multiple plays that if he held his block, Hurts had guys wide open. But instead, he had a blitzer right in his face because they were missing block assignments and there wasn't much they could do. So, That's another thing I think they're going to have to make an adjustment is Cam Juergens hurt. They're going to replace another guy in the offensive line for the Eagles? That's another big question. What you just said was also interesting that it's two teams that kind of had really bad, embarrassing losses. So when two teams coming off a loss that in the preseason they had double-digit win totals, now they're playing each other, the favorites, They're 14 and 27 against the spread in this exact spot, failing to cover by four points. So it's also just a trap spot in general for this Rams team. So I know it's weird to think that the Rams could be sitting here at one and three, but I feel like we kind of talked about this and predicted it a little bit where it's like the public is going to be so high on this team. Most weeks you're going to be getting good value on this Rams team and through three weeks that's panned out, right? They're one and two against the spread. Can they win this game outright? Yeah, but by more than three points, if it's Jalen Hurts playing at home here, No, like that's just way too many points for a Rams team that they cannot stop the run yet. Like they still have major holes up the middle and offensively, you know, Devontae Adams has been saving them. They need Puka. You just see that offense needs Puka back. He's such a game changer. So this is one where people can be patient on it, right? If it's Puka does come back, maybe this does go up to three and a half, but I'm just taking it out just in case a professional is coming in. A three and a half at Polymarket is just too good to pass on this number.
00:30:56
Speaker 1: I need to tell you about the new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports. You're buying in and selling out on your teams. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40%. When they come back, to double your money. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys that are giving you a free $ 50 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code SHARP when you sign up. That's code SHARP to get $ 50 free after you trade just $ 10. New England is visiting the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are six and a half point favorites. Like the Chargers last week, we have to ask ourselves if the team visiting Buffalo can get any lower. Drake May has 15 turnovers in the past six games. He let what he called a, quote, bloody ball, unquote, slip from his hand in a blowout loss to the Jags on Sunday. The Bills had five turnovers. and still covered by more than the touchdown spread. This did get to seven, and then there was some buyback on the Patriots. But really, all the bets at the prediction markets, the more expensive play is the bills. The defense has not been good, but they have been getting to the quarterback, which is a problem for a Patzo line that is injured and struggling, and there's still no A.J.
00:32:51
Speaker 2: Brown. So.
00:32:53
Speaker 1: I know at this big of a number and the perception of this team, the play, if it's at seven, is to do the Patriots. But how do you make the call when there's something sort of structurally wrong with a team and a quarterback versus a team that is in a right spot to get back and is undervalued? And are the Patriots in that spot?
00:33:22
Speaker 2: Another great Case Keenum stat. Case Keenum, one game, three touchdown passes, no picks. In three games, Drake May, one touchdown pass, what is it, eight turnovers? So it's a tough, tough league, man. And that's what sucks here is we know we're supposed to take the Patriots. I mean, everything is just pointed to taking them. It's really no different in many ways to the Eagles. But the difference would be is at least Jalen Hurts has shown life. We have not seen any life out of Drake May for three weeks. And As much as I want to say, well, you can take advantage of this Bill's defense. You said the Bill's pass rush, they might have found something. They got guys right now up front that are getting after the quarterback. And that is definitely something they've been lacking in past seasons. So it's so hard to want to fade Josh Allen after his worst game of the year. You just expect him to bounce back tenfold, especially against– I mean, did they lose to them twice last year? Like, did they beat the Patriots last year? I don't think they did. They didn't. Josh is just raging about that. Like, he wants to– not only dominate his division, but beat the shit out of the Patriots where he knows the history. He came in there. I think Tom Brady, his career had lost two games total at high mark. Like he just owned the bills. And I think Josh Allen's whole thing was, we're going to flip that. We're going to be the dominant bully ones in this division. And he had been so man, it's tough. It really is tough. I like, I really want to take, I really want to take the bill, especially now that's at six and a half. Maybe I'll just throw him in a teaser chat and do the coward way out. But I want to have some type of money invested in this Bills team because I'm worried that I'm missing a good opportunity to fade this Patriots team where they're not whole. Like Chad just said, they're still going to be missing AJ. We can't talk enough how that big of a deal that is. And now they have injuries to the offensive line. It's just all bad for New England. So that's what I don't know what to do here with this line where it's like we know it's inflated. We know that we're probably getting the value of the Patriots. I mean, professionals are telling you they're They're on the Patriots. I mean, this was seven. Early money is all coming in on the Patriots, so that's just pro money. So, yeah, like I said, I'll take a small stance here on the Bills, hear what the pros are saying, the sharp calls. I know I'm going to hear from guys who are on the Patriots and why I've got to be taking them, but I'm hoping we can just avoid this game because it's like I know we're supposed to take the Patriots, but what have we seen and what are we banking on here other than Vrabel himself? Like Vrabel is a big dog like this. That's profitable. That's why you take them in this exact spot. But other than that, this team looks totally lost in New England.
00:35:52
Speaker 1: Something's off. It's just that's the crux of the question, right? When is a team off and when are they still undervalued? And as we get deeper into the season, you start to get a better sense of when a team is actually off and not executing at the level that they have in the past. And when a team still has the value and with the Patriots, they're sort of we're getting to that tipping point with them versus a team like the Eagles that we just talked about. where we think all the pieces are there, they're, they're not lost and there is value to be had in an underdog spot. Jacksonville.
00:36:23
Speaker 2: I just want one more thing. There is, we did talk about the variable stuff and obviously it's been Drake May, but it all is attached. Like I know people have been asking about that. And I know I've had people ask about the Tiger Woods theory, which Tiger Woods famously had the most insane chaotic life ever outside of golf. And no one knew. And during all that chaos, he was able to control it and play at a highest level. And whatever happened after the fact, it was never the same. People have asked that about Vrabel. And it's like, I can't speak to that, but I can say something is clearly different with that team than it was last year. And it's as much, you want to point to all Drake May. It all starts with that coach. I mean, we always talk at the time that the quarterback, if they're good, like Drake Mays, he will outlive that head coach. So I, I mean, as much as Drake Mays feeling that heat for Abel is in the same boat. So it's, it just feels like a game. That's why we want to take them that this, they know this is going to make or break.
00:37:20
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:37:20
Speaker 2: Like one in three down now in the division to the bills. It's really a killer, but they could steal this game, be two and two. It could, it could flip their whole season around. That's, that's really what I'm toiling with here. It's like, I know this could totally make or break the Patriots season. So it's really a tough game to handicap.
00:37:36
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell says that the bills and the Patriots split last season, Jacksonville plus two and a half at Cincinnati, uh, Listen, just based on last week with the Jags dominating and the Bengals losing, you kind of want to take the Bengals because you feel like that's where the value is from a schematic on-field perspective. Like the Jags defense is still not very good. So don't be fooled by the Pats game. That was more Drake May just giving the ball away than it was the Jags doing anything spectacular, right? And they disguise their issues by blitzing 40% of the time. Historically, we know Joe Burrow can handle a blitz relatively well. Meanwhile, this is what's interesting to me. Cincinnati, their defense has been getting by on turnovers, but their scheme is to drop a lot into zone coverage. We know that Trevor Lawrence, who's so pretty, sometimes struggles with recognizing where to go with the ball. in-zone coverage. So I'm feeling much, much better about playing Cincinnati as a short home dog off of a loss where I think the spread might've been even higher. It could have touched three or stayed at three if they had beaten the Steelers, even with the Jags dominating the Patriots.
00:39:04
Speaker 2: Yeah. And this is another game we're banking pretty heavily on a bounce back from the Bengals defense, but also Joe Brewer felt like he lost that game. Like Joe had the ball in his hands and he fumbled it away at the end of the game. And this is the exact story you want to back Joe Burrow off those type of games. Now, I know there's a lot of data pointing to this Bengals team, especially over the last three, four years. They've struggled against playoff teams outside of their division. They just have not played well. And I always say that's a talent. level thing where it's like they didn't have a good defense these past few seasons. This year, they do have peace on the defense, which this is why I do believe they'll bounce back. Like they just got embarrassed by a 42-year-old quarterback. And the flip side, Joe Burrow, everyone keeps talking about the offensive line. His right tackle is not giving up a single pressure yet this season. A Bengals offensive tackle has not gone over pressure through three weeks. That blew my mind when I saw that stat. So, like I've talked about, I just think people underrating this O-line. Joe Burrow through three weeks. Last week, he looked more Joe than he had in the previous two weeks. I think it goes up another level here in this matchup where it's just they need to win this game desperately. Jags are going to be feeling themselves. I feel like we're going to get into a weird pattern here, Chad, where it's like, do we just blindly bet the Jags at home and fade them on the road because... Their first two games at home this year, they look like absolute world beaters. I mean, the Jaguars team looks like one of the best teams. And in Denver, they struggle. I'm interested to see what their offense is like on the road here against a good Cincinnati defense that should bounce back. So I'm right there with you, brother. Minus two and a half. I'm shocked to see the professional and the public's coming in on the Jaguars like that. It's just weird. That's where the early money is. I just thought everyone would have the same view as us of like, you're getting Joe under a field goal here at home against a team that, he should play well against offensively. Like that defense should not give him problems. So yeah, this is when I did think about for Simon says, but obviously the Eagles at plus three and a half, I couldn't, couldn't pass on it, but also really love this matchup and could easily see this being on one of our picks on Sunday.
00:41:00
Speaker 1: So could I, I put a little star next to it, put a star next to that one in the Eagles right now. You know what? I'm not putting a star next to my friend, Tennessee at Baltimore, Baltimore's 11 and a half point favorite. I'll just say this Ravens first half. Let's not discuss it anymore.
00:41:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, right. I said at the beginning of the year, that's the move, right? You bank on the Ravens' first half. It hits, and you don't have to worry about their defense giving up those late backdoor touchdowns second half or even losing the game outright. Yep, totally agree. Let's not waste time. We'll just do Ravens' first half. Throw Ravens in the teasers if you need the peace of mind, but Cam Ward is not long for this league. Even Salah knows it's either got it or you don't. The league tells you exactly who you are, and you need to make that jump in year two. He's not made that jump. He's regressed in many ways, so Sorry, Titans, but it's a great draft class. You'll find your guy this year. But yeah, this is a horrible, horrible spot to be in for the Titans fans.
00:41:52
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Dallas at Houston. Houston is a two and a half point favorite at home. This was one and a half on Sunday night when we recorded and moved in the direction of the Texans while we were discussing it. I liked Houston then. I still like Houston now. That's why this is Chad's choice. While the line is two and a half, Are you sure you want to do this?
00:42:17
Speaker 2: Are you willing to make a choice?
00:42:19
Speaker 1: What choice?
00:42:20
Speaker 2: We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean?
00:42:29
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure it's going to go to three. It's juiced like it's going to go to three. It's minus two and a half, minus 115, minus 120 in a lot of places. Apparently hopeful is now a unofficial designation for... very tissue and muscle sensitive wide receivers because Nico Collins is hopeful, according to D'Amico Ryans. Look, the Cowboys defense, despite what they did against the Ravens in a couple of key spots, is still terrible. And they lost a bunch of defensive backs on Sunday against the Ravens. And while Dallas and Dak are playing great offense today, The weakness of the Texans on defense has been explosive plays. The Cowboys have actually had a hard time converting explosive plays. They're amongst the lowest explosive play rates in the league. That's a play calling strategy, right? And so I think the Texas defense is starting to get better. They need this game at 0-3. Give me the short home favorite while we're still getting the best of the number.
00:43:39
Speaker 2: Yep. Easy, sharp side bet this week. It's 0-3 team. This normally, I don't know, five years ago, we would have had Houston as a dog. The public has gotten smarter. The books aren't giving those free easy plus numbers anymore like they used to. They bumped it up. They hung a number, minus one and a half, let the pros decide. Right away, the pros came and hit the Texans. Totally agree. The Texans' defense... Every week they have improved. I know it doesn't feel that way because they're 0-3. But, I mean, look at their schedule. Absolute gauntlet to start the season. So it's just like, you know, the Colts, as much as you want to hate on them, they're another desperate team in a divisional game. That's why we wanted to take them. We knew whoever the dog was catching the points in that game, that's the side you wanted to be on. It panned out that way. More so, they went outright, the Colts. So Texans just left for dead here. Public is totally out on them. No one's left. Going to be only professionals betting the Texans here. On the flip side, Cowboys, as much as we've seen their struggles, they still have Dak with two really good receivers, and that's always going to flash to the general public. So I wouldn't be shocked to see money coming in on the Cowboys, especially as the week goes along. I can see pros keep coming to the Texans. To me, this could easily get to minus three by the time we come back here on Thursday. And probably in the market, that means they'll be at minus three and a half. Yep. if you do want to grab it now with Chad, I would just, just, just try to beat the professional money coming in here. But if Nico gets cleared easily, this is three and a half come Sunday.
00:45:12
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit, it's a little bit of what I'm betting on is that Nico is going to get cleared. Cause there have been a lot of conversations that he's getting closer and closer and someone's saying they're hopeful. Then I'm just sort of trying to get there. Like you always said, just get ahead of the number a little bit.
00:45:26
Speaker 2: Dallas injuries. We didn't even mention either. They're secondary injuries. It could be down to literally bench guys, and they're already one of the worst secondaries in football.
00:45:35
Speaker 1: I did mention it. They had nobody. Sunday, I think at one point, I forgot who was calling the game, but on Sunday, maybe it was Jim Nance and J.J.
00:45:45
Speaker 2: Watt.
00:45:45
Speaker 1: J.J. Watt said they might run out of defensive backs. So they're struggling there in an area where they can't really afford to struggle. Arizona at the New York Giants. As you know, Simon, I've got a Discord, readthenumber.com. In the Discord, a lot of questions about how come we didn't mention the Cardinals on Sunday night when they were dogs at the Giants as one of our early leans. And I think we just sort of glossed over it. I don't even remember thinking about it in that moment. Now we got a line flip. So the Cardinals are one and a half point favorites, almost everywhere. There's one prediction market, one sports book where you can get the Cardinals plus one and a half. I've taken the cards as one and a half point underdogs. With a line flip, we know better. We do. But these cards, they're impressive. They were even impressive in that loss against San Francisco. And by the way, let me just say the Giants, Brian Burns out for the year, one of their best pass rushers.
00:46:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was always going to be on the Giants. I think I even said that Sunday night where it's just like.
00:47:03
Speaker 1: Oh, did you? I don't remember that. Yeah, just.
00:47:05
Speaker 2: Once again, it's just I get why people are going to be totally off them, right? Jameis Winston couldn't even throw a touchdown in that game. I think they kicked four field goals in a tsunami. Everyone's going to be very low on this Giants team where matchup-wise, I still think this is probably more equal than people realize. Like the Cardinals... Basically, the book are saying the Cardinals would be almost a four-point favorite at home against the Giants. I don't know. Are the Cardinals really that much better? I don't think they are. They're really fun for backdoors, like we said, but so many things had to break a certain way for that game to work out. The biggest one is the 49ers had zero pass rush. So, yes, Bursette, when he has all the time in the world to stand back there, we've seen him be very good. I mean, same thing happened against the week one. when he has time, he's a really good quarterback. So I don't know. It's, it's hard. It's hard for me to really want to be behind this Cardinals team where this Giants team, I kind of see their identity, especially now that there is no Jackson dart. They're just going to try to beat the crap out of you. They're going to try to really muscle you, especially defensively. They're just going to be super high, hyper aggressive. Like Chad said, their burns being out big deal. Like that's one of their best, one of their better pass rushers. So, Yeah, another game I guess we're just split on right now. I'll get there in the Giants if they get up to two or three. But at one and a half, yeah, not a bit of a force in there. It's just two really crappy teams. And Winston, this feels like this is it for Jameis Winston, where it's like they just brought in J.J. McCarthy for a fifth-round pick. They're more than happy to turn over to a young kid and see what they have if they lose this game. And they're now struggling to start this season. But Jameis can win this game, and they're 3-1. hey, Giants, they can make some noise. They have an easy schedule. There's a reason people pick them to be a breakout team. Really interesting spot here for this Giants team.
00:49:05
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston versus Jacoby Brissett. If that doesn't scream corner TV game, I don't know what does. Miami at Minnesota. Minnesota's an 11-point favorite. Not surprising at the number, but there is a much more even split on the money on these two teams than there is on the tickets. Look, the pros are going to take the double digit dog. We know that they're going to do it against Kyler Murray, who still hasn't looked like he's settled into this offense yet. Justin Jefferson sprained his ankle. Still questionable for this weekend. We don't know for sure if he's going to be playing. We know that the Dolphins are going to be without their best offensive weapon in HN, who's torn his ACL. I don't feel compelled to be in on this game. If you have a strong opinion, please share it.
00:50:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Vikings have been so good to me. They're obviously 3-0 against the spread this season, and They're a team I've just been betting every week, but you have to bet the Dolphins. I hate it. It's a miserable existence. I said the same thing last week. If you hate it, you don't want to experience it, tease them up, and you'd be a genius. They covered the tease last week. You do the same here. You're teasing them up to potentially plus 18, plus 16.5, or plus 16. You're getting a great number at this point if you tease them up through a bunch of key numbers. The Vikings have been the luckiest team in football. They could easily be 0-3. Every game thinks they're broken the right way for them to be where they're at right now. And they have, you know, you could just say they have the best coaching of football right now between Flores and KOC. It's like that's the cheat code. They're a nameless offense, a nameless defense, especially with Josh Jefferson being out there. They just have a bunch of pieces. They make it all work. When will this luck run out for Minnesota? Who knows, right? This is. Easily a team that could back themselves into 10, be a 10-7, be the 7th seed, or figure it out as the season goes along and end up winning this division. It's all on the border now for this Minnesota team, especially starting 3-0. We know if you can get out to early success in this league, you can back your way into the playoffs even if you fall off a map in the second half of the season. Kyler, like we just said, he's still trying to figure out this offense. I'm going to take the points with the Dolphins, but I'm going to try not to bully our fans and taking the dolphins. And I still feel bad about last week, but even though I think it was a right read, I I've heard from the fans and I get it. It's a, it's, I watched the game too. It's a miserable experience back in this dolphins team. So this is really one of those people. If you just cause play the number, not watch the game. It's I'm telling you, it's the right side. It's just, you want to fade a three and O team in week four, like three and O against the spread three and O straight up. You expect a letdown here. So, It's a lot of points to be back in a Vikings team that is just, they're just not that good. They're not good enough to be double-digit favorites, but they might make me eat these words come Sunday.
00:52:05
Speaker 1: Look, I have no regrets about the Miami game. No ragrets. Like, I thought that game, I didn't think it was miserable. I thought we had a shot. I thought we were in it. I was enjoying watching the Dolphins play until the call was six minutes left by Halfley. Like, I really thought they were in it. a position to steal that game outright enough that I was nervous that I had switched my survivor from the Niners to the Chiefs. So I would do it like I have no qualms betting a team as a huge underdog of plus 11 against a team like that is continuing to steamroll when it comes to against the spread and then just winning. Right now they're the best team in the NFC North. So at some point the magic runs out, not for a loss, but not everything's going to go perfectly.
00:53:00
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you didn't regret it because I did and a lot of fans did. I shouldn't have got bullied once again. The move last week was just to tease the Chiefs down to five and a half or six and a half. That was the move and try to get too smart. And that's why I'm upset because it's just that it's never as easy as you think it's going to be. It just felt like that Dolphins game is going to be easy. It looked easy for three and a half quarters. Yeah. And then we totally ate shit at the end of the game. That's why it's hurting me because it cost me a lot of money. And it's just the easy money was sitting there and just taking a Chiefs and a teaser. And I overthought it and tried taking the worst team of football on the spread. And the Dolphins, they might break a lot of these rules. That's my hesitation here. If the Dolphins covered us last week, this number, probably eight and a half, seven and a half. So literally the books are giving you another week of the books giving you three to four free points because they are getting no money on the Dolphins. Yeah. It's just brutal. It's like they know they're tempting me and I'm going to have to bet the Dolphins again. I hate it.
00:53:55
Speaker 1: The regret wasn't that we made the bet. The regret for me is that we put it in the final five and it ended up being an excruciating loss. Denver and San Francisco. San Francisco is a two and a half point favorite. It's mostly come down from three. It may bounce back up again. I'm curious your take here, what your model might say about it. For me, from a number value, it seems like it's priced exactly right. The question is, do we believe the Broncos offense is good enough to take advantage of the Niners not having Nick Bosa, several other defensive linemen out? You know, Trent Williams had a stinger. They expect him to play. Mike Evans had rib issues, but they expect him to play. It's a beat up team already. I'm just, I'm kind of excited just to see this game and see who's more for real because they built them playing especially the past week or so with the, with the Broncos and against the chiefs the week before the defense for the Broncos has just been getting better and better. And the Niners offense has been lights out. You know, Brock Purdy is MVP level right now. So curious where your model puts this.
00:55:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was week 11. This would be easy on my biggest bets of the year on the Broncos. This is a no brainer. Take that plus three as quick as you can. Uh, As bad as the Broncos have looked and sloppy offensively, they've played really good competition. They've played hard games. Who have the 49ers played? They played a sleepwalking Rams team. Then they came home and beat up a bad Miami team. And they let a Cardinals team put up 30 against that defense. It's kind of terrifying. We've talked about these injuries catching up with the 49ers team. Yeah, Brock Purdy, MVP level. Sure, he can roll in this game and put up points, no doubt. He's going to need Mike Evans back, especially for this matchup here. I mean, this Broncos defense is legit. You can complain and say, well, they have some weaknesses you can attack. Yes, of course. Every defense, I mean, it's a salary cap league. But overall, they just have so many great players in that defense, the Broncos. And we've seen it. They always play themselves in the form as the season goes along here. So great early test for the Broncos. I mean, I love that professionals and the public are early here on the Niners. So I'm going to grab the Broncos plus three. It's a game where, yeah, you know, putting a lot of faith into an offense with Webb that has just not been consistent at all in Denver, right? They have not played a full game yet. I keep thinking, though, they have so much to every week you see stuff they can build off of and they'll keep getting better every week as Webb with that coach. So. So, yeah, just playing the number here. It feels like a little inflated, a little overrated Niners team where the Broncos feel like they're truly battle-tested so far through this season. And that type of win they had last week, it's the same thing they did all last season with Bo Nix. People kept saying they're going to regress, right? Bo Nix can't go 15-1 in these one-score games and keep bringing his team from behind. And we're through three weeks. He brought his team from behind against the Jaguars, brought his team from behind against the Rams. I mean, it just looks like that's who Bo Nix is. Like, it's just a guy that he plays really well when the pressure's on and everything. Everyone else gets really tight. So you're giving me him as a dog here. Maybe I'm walking right into it. It's too good to be true. But I just think the Niners are totally inflated, overrated by the public right now because Brock Purdy is playing the MVP level. So I'll take the plus three right now in the Broncos. I agree.
00:57:17
Speaker 1: I agree, Simon. LA Chargers at Seattle. Seattle is a seven point favorite, seven across the board, some seven and a halfs popping up. Look, last week we thought we were catching a fallen knife with the Chargers and it really played almost exactly as we thought it would. But now are they, you know, we had the same questions about the Patriots now going to the bills that we do about the Chargers. Is this team just infected, right? Is there just something structurally wrong? with how they are operating and even if we know the value is going to be on the chargers especially at a touchdown especially with the hook can there be any confidence in playing them is it is it silly to blindly bet a number when we know what we know about a team that is struggling so badly even jim harbaugh who has said he would like to trade dna with justin herbert is now criticizing Justin Herbert.
00:58:25
Speaker 2: Another game, though, not overthink it, just throw him in a teaser. I mean, you're saying Seattle just needs to win this game in a teaser? Does it get much easier than that? Honestly, like that game you go back and watch with Washington, you just have those games like that where every little thing could go wrong, goes wrong, goes against you, right? Their rookie running back fumbles. Darnold comes in and throws a stupid pick six. Just every little thing went wrong. This is a championship level team. If Seattle doesn't bounce back here, that makes me more worried about my projections of what I had them come into the season where it's like you just expect them to be so much better. Now, it could be that Sam Darnold is rusting. He's not fully healed. He's trying to do too much because Drew Locke came in and won. Whatever you want to say, maybe that's a hamper of it, but she had to say like every we know we're supposed to take the charters here like they're oh and three straight up oh three against the spread the books are giving you another free point couple points here 90 of the money 90 of the bets are going to be on seattle's which the exact same scenario that's with the bills like it's just every week the books are going to desperately need the chargers so I'm in a tough spot here where it's like, yeah, I want to tell people to take the Chargers, but we could come here Thursday. This could be eight and a half. Who is running to the window to hammer the Chargers right now? Just no pro is going to be that excited to do it. We just got burned so bad in our dream game last week. Everything that happened in that game was going perfectly to plan for the Chargers. They miss a kick, they throw a pick in the red zone, and it all just totally fell apart. I still can't believe we didn't cover that seven.
00:59:57
Speaker 1: And a half.
00:59:57
Speaker 2: So it's ridiculous. It really is. Like I've, I've watched that. I went back and rewatched the game. I, it's just, it's impossible. They didn't cover that number. So I, I know by the book we're supposed to go by, we're supposed to blindly take the chargers here, but they might be the exception to the rule. They really might be that bad right now. And we, we all models might be off on them just because they do have so much talent. They do have Herbert as a, as the quarterback and, every model is going to bump that up a point or two higher than it probably should right now. So yeah, like I said, I'll, I'll, I'll do the cheap way out. I'll just take Seattle in a teaser. And if, if we come in here and it's eight and a half on Sunday, maybe me and Chad talk about putting in the contest, but if I could avoid this game, I will be very happy.
01:00:40
Speaker 1: Well, you could do what's interesting. You could do a Buffalo, Miami, Seattle, either all line combo or teaser a lot. I, you know, I know you love when I mention the Discord, but there's valuable information in there. And a lot of the conversation has been, are you getting better pricing if you're betting alt line parlays versus betting straight up six or seven point teasers? You could do those three in some kind of combination, you know, responsibly, given that we like some things about which way you could go if you're moving those numbers forward. up or down a little bit. Thoughts on that?
01:01:26
Speaker 2: Don't hate it. Like I said, there's a lot of good teaser options. I just said the Bills are a great one. You can take the Vikings down to a key number. There's a lot of options here where you don't have to force these big numbers in. Like I said, it's very tempting to take Seattle minus seven, but I'd rather play it super safe here and just take it down to a tease.
01:01:50
Speaker 1: Kansas City at Las Vegas. Las Vegas Raiders are four and a half point favorites. Simon, this was almost Chad's choice. Let's not overthink it. If the Raiders were a bad team, we might consider taking them as more than a field goal dog at home in the division. Now they're playing well. Their defense is legit good. Second in EPA per play allowed. Ninth in success rate. Despite last week Mahomes and covering against the Dolphins, Mahomes is a favorite of more than four in the division, covers just 41% of the time. Let's just play the Raiders.
01:02:27
Speaker 2: Another line, though, I don't really get. It was five and a half Sunday, and he said right away, all right, well, the pros are going to be hammering this Raiders side. And it's honestly been pretty split. Most guys I talk to, it's pretty split. The view is this Raiders team is a little inflated, a little overrated right now. I don't know. I think I just disagree. It's like Kirk just looks like he's very comfortable playing really well in this offense and getting Brock Bowers back this week. It was an instant improvement to that offense in the sense that anytime you need four or five yards, it feels like Browers is there for that play. And Kirk knows that. And that's such a big deal to have Kirk always in second and five or third and three. Like Kirk, third and 10, yes, you're a dead man walking. Like Kirk doesn't have the mobility anymore, doesn't have the arm strength, especially timing routes like that. But on these quick intermediate throws, you're seeing Kirk is great. Like he is really good when he's not being hit or touched. And In this offense, it really thrives on those type of scenarios. Another game where I'm right there with you. I'm excited to hear what the boys are saying and different professionals, why they're betting the Chiefs right now because I thought we'd come here right now. This would easily be three and a half. This just felt like a number that would be bet down right away. Yeah, I'll be the sucker. Give me plus four and a half on the Raiders every time. The Chiefs, as good as I guess people think they are, I still think that defense, Miami was able to move the ball and they left a lot of points on the field. This Raiders offense is much better than Miami. So I think it's going to be what I thought it was going to be with Spags, which is he has a very young defense. It's a very complicated defense. It's going to take a couple months for these guys to really get comfortable and get better at it. So the offense looks ready to go Chiefs-wise, but defensively I still think they've got issues. So four and a half, way too much respect for this Chiefs team at this point.
01:04:14
Speaker 1: Sunday Night Football, Detroit visiting the Carolina Panthers. We're a Carolina Panthers podcast. They are three and a half point home underdogs on Sunday night. The line has moved up from three to three and a half. I know that we really want to take Carolina here, but they have so many injuries right now. JC Horn, out. Mike Jackson, the other cornerback, maybe out. We don't know the status of Jalen Williams. coker yet he is questionable with a quad issue this is a much different team the defense is already terrible it will we will be depending on them to go down the field and score every single drive against this terrible lions defense but their lions offense is going to have their way knowing all the injury issues are we afraid of this panthers team right now or do we stay true to our roots.
01:05:12
Speaker 2: To me, it's all about Bryce Young. Bryce Young is potentially injured. I don't think he got an MRI yesterday. That's today. My days are warped together a little bit because I stayed up all night to get ready for the show today. I don't remember when I saw it, but if he's going for an MRI, that's a big deal, obviously. Bryce Young's the team. That's why I think the number's moved up, honestly. If he's truly hurt, yes, that makes sense why the number would be moving the way it is right now, but if he's full to go, it just feels like a very easy bet. You take The Panthers here are plus three and a half. It's an outdoor game, potentially some bad weather, and the Lions defense, you've seen it. They're horrible. They have so many injuries. This is a really bad defense, and we've seen that. Say what you want about the Panthers, this offense scheme, it works. They're able to move the ball up and down the field. Now, last week, they were settling for field goals. You're really honestly banking on that to happen again against the Lions. That's the only way they don't cover this number if they keep settling for field goals, and I think what Chad just talked about, they won't be– kind of reserved like they were against the Browns. That Browns, the game plan for Canales made sense. I think with the Lions, they know they're going to need points and they'll be more aggressive. Another number I'm just going to take right away, just in case Bryce Young is fully cleared and healthy to go. You see this drop to three plus three, maybe plus two and a half. If not, if he's not cleared, maybe I buy it on my position or I take a different position later in the week on this Carolina Panthers team, but yeah as we see it right now on Tuesday I've already bet the Panthers a plus three and a half I'll try to be patient and wait and see here but yeah it's I don't think the Panthers defense is bad as people think they are like they played obviously horrible against the Bears in week one played well against Atlanta played well I feel like last week against Cleveland obviously is a big step up but it's it is Jared Goff outdoors and potentially in the elements so we know we know the data backs up to Jared Goff this year he's been terrible against the Blitz so I just feel like it's another matchup where they'll just keep bringing the blitz. And if he burns them down the field, so be it. But it's not that terrible a matchup, I think, the public perceives as it is for this Panthers team. This is a winnable game.
01:07:21
Speaker 1: Bryce Young, lower body injury, getting tests. The expectation is he'll play, but he is getting tests. Before we get to the Monday Night Football game, quick programming note. We're going to start. doing the sunday morning show live at 11 a.m starting this sunday we'll be bringing it back we're doing it live on youtube 11 a.m eastern the podcast will still come out as soon as we're done but if you want to hear the final five live we'll be nailing those down every sunday sharper square youtube at 11 a.m eastern simon monday night football Atlanta at New Orleans, New Orleans at two and a half point favorite. Look, Atlanta's defense has actually been much, much better than I think people give them credit for. Top 10, both in success rate and EPA per play. The issue before Penix came back, Michael Penix has been zero explosiveness on offense. That change against Detroit, especially with Bijan getting things opened up because of the passing game. The Saints are all about explosiveness. They're, you know, they are, As good as explosive plays as you can get, but their defense is bottom five. This feels like a trappy number to me, taking the Falcons at two and a half. Kind of a pass for me. I don't like anything about this number right now.
01:08:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I like the Falcons side because I am shocked at the number.
01:08:57
Speaker 1: Well, that's why it feels like, what am I missing? Like, I feel like I like the Falcons, but I don't like it because it feels like it's too easy. I'm psyching myself out.
01:09:07
Speaker 2: What I'm not getting is, I don't get why the public and professionals are betting this Saints side so heavy, where it's, you know, as good as their offensive look, their defense has been very bad through a couple weeks here.
01:09:19
Speaker 1: Really bad.
01:09:20
Speaker 2: Atlanta, you can knock them and say, well, was that a fluke with Pennix against a bad Green Bay defense? We just said the Saints defense is not that good either. You expect Pennix to be able to move the ball here indoors. Like, it's just an extended rest, too. It's just very bizarre. Bizarre, bizarre number. Like, there's a couple of very public books out there that are plus three. I've grabbed it, and it's, you know, a number that I'm interested to see what Polly Market does with it because right now, like Chet said, it's It's two and a half, but all the money, everything is just pouring in on the Saints. Maybe I can just be patient here and let them dictate this number. If it does get back to three and a half, easy, easy bet on the Falcons here. Divisional game, you just expect to be close. As good as the Saints have looked offensively, like Chad said, they're living and dying on these big plays because Shuck is so up and down as well. Some drives, he's incredible. Other drives, he's just super inconsistent, but overall, it just really sucks. We're playing the number here. A divisional game, if you're giving me the hook at three and a half, no doubt play on this Falcons team. But just a plus three, I'll make the bet. I'm not going to go too crazy on it right now. But yeah, I think just look at the matchup wise. The only way we don't cover this is if Pennix totally has a horrible game. I just think they're offensively have too many weapons and defensively losing AJ Terrell. The cornerback, in a game like this, is going to show up, right? You really need him to take away Olave. It's a guy who's been absolutely out of this world good. So, you know, injury is obviously a big factor here. But, yeah, just number-wise, I can't believe we're still able to get plus three on this Falcons team. Two and a half, that feels right to me. But plus three, this feels like a Falcons line.
01:11:04
Speaker 1: Simon, if we had to make five picks right now, I feel like I know exactly what they would be. So it'll be curious to see. how our opinions change the more we research these games and the more we start hearing from other people in the space who try to bully us and change our opinions. But right now, Simon says it's Philly plus three. Chad's choice is Houston minus two and a half. Get it before it gets to three because it's going there. Cincy is really interesting to us. Denver is really interesting to us. Las Vegas, really interesting to us. A lot of games, We are zeroing in on. This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume Podcast Network. We will be back on Thursday with the games. We are zeroing in on, plus our survivor pick, our head-to-head battle. Brass Balls, so much more. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Also, download us from Spotify, Apple Pod, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
01:12:09
Speaker 2: One thing that I do is forgetting those that is behind and reaching for what's ahead.