The Republicans STRIKE BACK!

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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Well,
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we heard a lot about what the Democrats have been doing in the Senate,
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in the House,
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and all these governor's races.
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What is the GOP doing?
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Well,
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they do have a plan.
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I wanna go through it and walk you through kind of
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what they're gonna try to do here in the next 6 weeks
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to turn the tides on what's been a rough
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couple of weeks,
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especially in polling.
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We have a candidate update out of Ohio,
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and we,
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uh,
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have a few markets I kinda like.
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We'll get into those as well.
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Unpredictable with Sue.
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Thanks so much for joining us.
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We're on YouTube at youtube.com/atpredictableshow
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and predictableshow.com.
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All right,
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here we go.
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Let's get to it.
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It's a big day,
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unpredictable with Stu making the
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Unpredictable world,
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just a little bit more predictable for you on a day to day basis,
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and we use prediction markets to try to dig down,
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understand the world a little bit better.
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I try to talk to you about the things that we're doing in prediction markets
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and give you a little preview
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as to what might come in the world because honestly,
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the media does a crappy job at it.
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This is one of the great Things about this,
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uh,
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world.
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The only thing that will make this,
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uh,
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show,
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this company
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succeed
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is we just have to depend
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on the media
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continuing to suck,
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and we're pretty confident that's gonna continue to happen.
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So
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thanks so much for joining us.
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We're 43 days away
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from the midterm elections,
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and if you didn't know this already.
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The election basically started this weekend.
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We have early voting
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that has already begun in several states,
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many states coming up as well as September 24th in Illinois.
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We've got Maine,
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California is right around the corner,
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and it goes through a bunch of dates
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after that as we enter into
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October.
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Couple of things I wanna tell you about at predictableShow.com.
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We've added a ton of features lately,
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and if you haven't been there in a while,
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you may wanna check out these features.
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Brand new that we just uh kind of put up there today,
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are the first four installments
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of Predictable 101.
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If you are new to prediction markets,
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if you have absolutely no idea what prediction markets are or how they work,
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and you're interested in getting into them and,
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and maybe investing a little bit,
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this is the series to walk you through step by step,
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every part of the process.
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I mean,
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and I'm talking about,
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we're starting at the very beginning.
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Cause I get this all the time.
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People are like,
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hey,
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you're talking about your,
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uh,
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how you're laddering out of a position.
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What the hell does that mean?
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How about telling me,
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I don't know the very basics.
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Like,
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what,
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how do these things work?
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What do I do?
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Where do I go?
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How do I sign up?
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How do I fund my account?
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How do I buy?
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How do I sell?
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Very basic things,
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and like,
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when you start a new thing,
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if you've never done them before,
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you have to understand these things,
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you have to learn them.
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So what we did is we decided to do like a,
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a basic,
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you know,
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set of,
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of videos
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that are like 3 or 4 minutes long.
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Things that are,
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that will kind of teach you the,
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the,
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the,
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from the ground floor all the way up,
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um,
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and that is now available at predictable101.com.
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If you go to predictable101.com,
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it'll direct you to these videos and uh you'll see here,
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look,
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there's a lesson one,
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what are prediction markets
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and how do they work?
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Very basic question.
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Lesson two,
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how to pick a platform,
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how to open an account,
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how to deposit money.
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Lesson number 3,
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how to fund your account?
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Uh,
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how does that work?
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And lesson number 4,
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the first way to buy is,
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uh,
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finding a market,
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making a prediction,
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and buying in dollars.
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We're gonna go through,
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uh,
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lesson 5 is coming soon and lesson 6 as well.
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These are kind of
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right around the corner.
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And then after that,
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there's also a printed guide that you can use that goes through.
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Everything that these videos will eventually cover,
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we're,
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well,
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we've,
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we've got 6 of them,
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4 of them are done,
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a couple more in,
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in the works,
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and we've got more coming after that.
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But if you wanna skip ahead,
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if you're like,
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I'm going ahead,
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you have the principal guide,
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uh,
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that is there available for you as well.
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Predictable 101.com.
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Uh,
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we also have the predictable midterm consensus.
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This is the election model that I built.
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Uh,
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this is something that will predict
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what is coming up,
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uh,
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when it comes to,
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I mean,
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I guess when I say it's predictable,
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um,
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midterm consensus,
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it is.
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The consensus is kind of the the part to focus on here.
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This is not my prediction
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as to what's gonna happen.
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This is what the actual experts and data are saying right now.
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If you scroll down,
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let's see the,
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the PMC,
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let's see what it has here.
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You got kind of like the takeaways from the update.
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Here we go.
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This is not great news if you happen to be
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a Republican or a conservative or want them to win.
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The House,
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an 85.6%
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chance of Democrats winning,
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and the Senate 58.6%.
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Now Republicans have been ahead in the Senate most of the time.
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They're still,
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I mean,
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58 to 41%
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is a gap.
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It's not like,
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it's like a leaning gap though.
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It's not like an
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overwhelming gap.
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The House is overwhelming,
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and I've been telling you for a while that I am buying.
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Uh,
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you know,
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I've been buying the Democrats winning the House since the beginning of the year.
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Like I,
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you know,
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and before that,
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before the show even started,
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I had shares of that
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because of his history and,
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and what I would expect to happen.
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What is notable about this is you will see now the markets,
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if you see below right there,
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it says House 85.6%,
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but below that,
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uh,
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it says,
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now you don't have to scroll anymore,
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Adam.
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Um,
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it says,
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uh,
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the comparison is,
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uh,
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Cal Sheet has a 90.7% chance
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for the Democrats to win the House.
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Polly market 92.5%.
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For the first time,
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these markets are now in the 90s and they are
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more favorable for Democrats
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in the House
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than you see,
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um,
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uh,
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in the,
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in the model of the expert's opinion.
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The reverse is true in the Senate where
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the markets are actually a little more skeptical
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of the chances,
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uh,
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actually,
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now they've now moved ahead.
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Wow,
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look at that,
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60.9%.
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It's been,
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it's been the reverse the entire time
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where
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Uh,
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for a long time,
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the Calci and poly market percentages
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were more favorable,
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uh,
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for Republicans.
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Now they are slightly less favorable for Republicans.
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So there you go,
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uh,
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that's how that goes.
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And by the way,
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if you are a premium subscriber at predictableShow.com,
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we break down every single Senate race in that model as well,
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so you can check the gaps and look for opportunities.
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To invest.
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If you are an investor in prediction markets,
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it is a great membership for you.
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It will pay for itself,
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in my opinion,
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at least of the value over and over again.
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And we've seen that from many of the people who have subscribed and said,
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look,
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I,
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you know,
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I've already actually profited
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off of particular markets using this stuff,
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so
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check that out.
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So I wanna go into that though,
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because we do have,
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uh,
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the PMC telling us an,
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uh,
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an 80% chance
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of Republicans,
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uh,
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losing the House,
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uh,
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60% chance or so that they're gonna lose the Senate.
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What are they gonna do?
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They're gonna take this,
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uh,
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lying down.
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They're gonna do nothing about it?
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Are they gonna hope for these races to push out the right way?
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No,
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I,
292
00:06:29.430 --> 00:06:30.850
I think we're at that point,
293
00:06:31.190 --> 00:06:31.540
and we're,
294
00:06:31.750 --> 00:06:32.860
this is happening in September,
295
00:06:32.900 --> 00:06:34.220
it's gonna go into October,
296
00:06:34.470 --> 00:06:35.730
where we're at the sort of
297
00:06:35.950 --> 00:06:37.380
empire strikes back moment,
298
00:06:37.510 --> 00:06:38.170
if you will.
299
00:06:38.510 --> 00:06:39.850
This is the moment where,
300
00:06:40.510 --> 00:06:40.660
uh,
301
00:06:40.750 --> 00:06:41.550
you have the,
302
00:06:41.680 --> 00:06:42.970
the Republicans
303
00:06:43.350 --> 00:06:44.420
who are saying,
304
00:06:44.510 --> 00:06:44.940
you know what,
305
00:06:45.070 --> 00:06:46.300
we can't take this lying down.
306
00:06:46.430 --> 00:06:47.730
We need to do something
307
00:06:47.950 --> 00:06:51.350
to minimize the damage and maybe advance some of these seats.
308
00:06:51.740 --> 00:06:55.520
And that is one of the things that are is going on right now,
309
00:06:55.780 --> 00:06:55.930
uh,
310
00:06:56.020 --> 00:06:56.330
in,
311
00:06:56.410 --> 00:06:57.730
in the entire country,
312
00:06:57.780 --> 00:06:59.200
but in these key Senate races
313
00:06:59.380 --> 00:06:59.960
in particular.
314
00:07:00.100 --> 00:07:00.850
Now I will say,
315
00:07:00.980 --> 00:07:01.130
uh,
316
00:07:01.260 --> 00:07:01.570
you might say,
317
00:07:01.620 --> 00:07:01.730
well,
318
00:07:01.820 --> 00:07:02.550
do they even have a plan?
319
00:07:02.630 --> 00:07:02.690
Yeah,
320
00:07:02.780 --> 00:07:03.420
they have a plan.
321
00:07:03.660 --> 00:07:04.650
They're building a Death Star.
322
00:07:04.710 --> 00:07:05.250
Now I will say,
323
00:07:05.380 --> 00:07:06.170
knowing the Republicans,
324
00:07:06.220 --> 00:07:07.510
there is a Good chance
325
00:07:07.740 --> 00:07:08.670
the Death Star
326
00:07:08.780 --> 00:07:10.540
has a ventilation shaft
327
00:07:10.660 --> 00:07:12.920
that leads right to a self-destruct mechanism.
328
00:07:12.940 --> 00:07:13.800
That's kind of
329
00:07:14.250 --> 00:07:16.490
how Republicans typically operate in these situations,
330
00:07:16.580 --> 00:07:17.760
but they are doing their best
331
00:07:17.940 --> 00:07:21.690
to push back against the Democratic wave that I will say this.
332
00:07:22.850 --> 00:07:26.040
Trying to think when the last time I saw language like this was.
333
00:07:26.090 --> 00:07:27.430
I would probably have to go back
334
00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:28.040
to 20,
335
00:07:28.140 --> 00:07:29.510
now this is gonna be comforting
336
00:07:29.730 --> 00:07:30.950
and shocking at the same time.
337
00:07:31.050 --> 00:07:32.590
I will go back to 2016,
338
00:07:33.010 --> 00:07:33.960
where it looked like,
339
00:07:34.210 --> 00:07:34.440
gosh,
340
00:07:34.530 --> 00:07:34.920
oh gosh,
341
00:07:35.130 --> 00:07:36.120
Republicans are gonna do terrible.
342
00:07:36.210 --> 00:07:37.200
They had this crazy man,
343
00:07:37.290 --> 00:07:37.850
Donald Trump,
344
00:07:37.890 --> 00:07:40.010
as the nominee who has no chance of winning,
345
00:07:40.290 --> 00:07:42.080
and we saw a lot of that talk then.
346
00:07:42.480 --> 00:07:44.110
We then saw it again in 2018.
347
00:07:44.320 --> 00:07:46.670
The difference in 2016 and 2018 in 2016,
348
00:07:46.800 --> 00:07:47.870
that talk was not correct.
349
00:07:47.960 --> 00:07:48.630
In 2018,
350
00:07:48.650 --> 00:07:49.660
it kind of was.
351
00:07:49.840 --> 00:07:50.590
2018,
352
00:07:50.920 --> 00:07:51.630
you may remember,
353
00:07:51.960 --> 00:07:53.160
first midterm election
354
00:07:53.360 --> 00:07:54.110
under Donald Trump.
355
00:07:54.200 --> 00:07:56.800
So that is the race that we look back to often
356
00:07:57.040 --> 00:07:57.630
to try to say,
357
00:07:57.680 --> 00:07:58.070
wait a minute,
358
00:07:58.200 --> 00:07:58.320
what,
359
00:07:58.480 --> 00:07:59.530
what is this gonna look like?
360
00:07:59.800 --> 00:08:00.570
The generic ballot.
361
00:08:00.860 --> 00:08:01.560
Ballot numbers,
362
00:08:01.700 --> 00:08:03.680
which are numbers if you just kind of ask people,
363
00:08:03.770 --> 00:08:03.970
hey,
364
00:08:04.060 --> 00:08:04.360
you know,
365
00:08:04.780 --> 00:08:05.400
what do you think?
366
00:08:05.420 --> 00:08:07.050
We could vote for Republicans or Democrats,
367
00:08:07.180 --> 00:08:10.450
the numbers are about the same as they were in 2018 right now.
368
00:08:10.540 --> 00:08:11.490
In some ways they look worse,
369
00:08:11.540 --> 00:08:13.080
in some ways they look a little bit better,
370
00:08:13.250 --> 00:08:14.180
but generally speaking,
371
00:08:14.460 --> 00:08:19.320
looking at a bad year for Republicans as sort of the surface level expectation,
372
00:08:19.900 --> 00:08:22.010
and then we go a little bit farther to see what's gonna happen.
373
00:08:22.100 --> 00:08:23.850
Will the Death Star at least blow up Alderon?
374
00:08:24.670 --> 00:08:24.780
Uh,
375
00:08:25.630 --> 00:08:27.250
maybe it'll at least blow up Alderron.
376
00:08:27.310 --> 00:08:30.300
It might not be able to blow up the entire SAR system or the entire,
377
00:08:30.350 --> 00:08:30.380
uh,
378
00:08:30.470 --> 00:08:31.210
resistance,
379
00:08:31.510 --> 00:08:32.789
but maybe they get Alderron,
380
00:08:32.990 --> 00:08:33.330
right?
381
00:08:33.510 --> 00:08:35.020
That's all you're kind of hoping for if you
382
00:08:35.020 --> 00:08:37.169
happen to be a Republican consultant these days.
383
00:08:37.390 --> 00:08:37.539
Um,
384
00:08:37.710 --> 00:08:39.890
and one of the ways that they're doing this is
385
00:08:40.190 --> 00:08:40.929
something that is,
386
00:08:41.140 --> 00:08:43.090
has kind of a history
387
00:08:43.470 --> 00:08:44.700
in the Trump era.
388
00:08:45.190 --> 00:08:45.620
Donald Trump,
389
00:08:45.670 --> 00:08:46.850
if you remember in 2016,
390
00:08:47.070 --> 00:08:48.650
really didn't have any money.
391
00:08:48.750 --> 00:08:48.900
I mean,
392
00:08:48.940 --> 00:08:49.710
he had his own money.
393
00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:52.890
And he used a lot of his own money in 2016 to get elected,
394
00:08:53.110 --> 00:08:56.470
but there wasn't a huge support network behind him because a,
395
00:08:56.630 --> 00:08:58.700
a lot of Republicans just thought he was going to lose.
396
00:08:59.110 --> 00:08:59.600
And B,
397
00:08:59.910 --> 00:09:02.580
he wasn't friendly with anyone in the Republican Party at that point.
398
00:09:02.650 --> 00:09:03.450
He didn't have any
399
00:09:03.710 --> 00:09:04.450
basis,
400
00:09:04.720 --> 00:09:04.820
uh,
401
00:09:05.030 --> 00:09:05.340
for,
402
00:09:05.430 --> 00:09:05.660
uh,
403
00:09:05.950 --> 00:09:06.430
fundraising.
404
00:09:06.510 --> 00:09:07.010
He was not
405
00:09:07.150 --> 00:09:08.420
good at fundraising at that time.
406
00:09:08.510 --> 00:09:10.630
He did not get a lot of money in 2016.
407
00:09:10.790 --> 00:09:12.490
He had to spend a lot of his own money
408
00:09:12.600 --> 00:09:13.940
to get elected in the first place.
409
00:09:14.190 --> 00:09:14.720
As
410
00:09:14.870 --> 00:09:17.290
the Republican Party transferred from,
411
00:09:17.430 --> 00:09:17.620
uh,
412
00:09:17.830 --> 00:09:17.980
you know,
413
00:09:18.030 --> 00:09:20.860
a traditional Republican Party that had been around for a while
414
00:09:21.270 --> 00:09:22.780
into what it is now.
415
00:09:22.880 --> 00:09:23.060
Which is,
416
00:09:23.110 --> 00:09:23.260
you know,
417
00:09:23.350 --> 00:09:25.680
you probably say just a vehicle for
418
00:09:25.830 --> 00:09:26.940
the MAGA movement,
419
00:09:27.030 --> 00:09:27.190
right?
420
00:09:27.230 --> 00:09:28.240
There's very few
421
00:09:28.430 --> 00:09:30.450
of the sort of traditional Republicans
422
00:09:30.660 --> 00:09:31.170
that are left,
423
00:09:31.190 --> 00:09:32.660
at least running on a lot of that stuff.
424
00:09:32.830 --> 00:09:33.020
Um,
425
00:09:33.310 --> 00:09:36.090
there's certainly a lot of crossover between traditional Republican
426
00:09:36.470 --> 00:09:37.970
stuff and conservative values
427
00:09:38.190 --> 00:09:38.940
and the MAGA,
428
00:09:39.110 --> 00:09:39.310
um,
429
00:09:39.510 --> 00:09:40.050
movement,
430
00:09:40.310 --> 00:09:41.970
but this is Trump's party now.
431
00:09:42.030 --> 00:09:43.410
He does have all those levers.
432
00:09:43.460 --> 00:09:45.180
He does have ways to get lots and lots of money.
433
00:09:45.240 --> 00:09:46.730
He is capable of raising it.
434
00:09:46.990 --> 00:09:48.210
And so he used that
435
00:09:48.790 --> 00:09:50.670
starting in 2020 and 2024.
436
00:09:51.170 --> 00:09:51.310
Uh,
437
00:09:51.530 --> 00:09:51.830
to,
438
00:09:52.050 --> 00:09:52.240
uh,
439
00:09:52.610 --> 00:09:53.550
direct money in
440
00:09:53.790 --> 00:09:54.560
specific ways.
441
00:09:54.730 --> 00:09:56.030
One of the things I think he got used to,
442
00:09:56.050 --> 00:09:56.640
in 2016,
443
00:09:56.690 --> 00:09:57.470
he didn't have any money.
444
00:09:57.850 --> 00:09:59.230
He got some money late in the game,
445
00:09:59.370 --> 00:10:00.280
and that pushed him over the,
446
00:10:00.530 --> 00:10:00.880
over the,
447
00:10:01.040 --> 00:10:01.380
the hump,
448
00:10:01.400 --> 00:10:02.150
2020.
449
00:10:02.450 --> 00:10:04.550
He kind of decided to implement a,
450
00:10:04.690 --> 00:10:05.430
and that was a weird year,
451
00:10:05.450 --> 00:10:05.680
of course,
452
00:10:05.770 --> 00:10:06.380
with COVID,
453
00:10:06.570 --> 00:10:09.240
but implemented a system where he used the money,
454
00:10:09.370 --> 00:10:09.680
yes,
455
00:10:09.810 --> 00:10:11.070
and he directed a lot of the money.
456
00:10:11.370 --> 00:10:11.950
But he didn't,
457
00:10:12.050 --> 00:10:13.160
he kind of waited a little bit.
458
00:10:13.250 --> 00:10:13.560
He didn't,
459
00:10:13.650 --> 00:10:14.620
he wasn't early.
460
00:10:14.890 --> 00:10:15.570
2024,
461
00:10:15.650 --> 00:10:17.260
he really used this to great effect,
462
00:10:17.450 --> 00:10:18.190
and that he,
463
00:10:18.650 --> 00:10:22.620
he wasn't dumping money into ads six months in advance.
464
00:10:23.010 --> 00:10:24.320
There's been a long-term strategy,
465
00:10:24.370 --> 00:10:25.120
if you think the strategy,
466
00:10:25.250 --> 00:10:26.040
if you think of the strategy,
467
00:10:26.070 --> 00:10:27.230
it does make some sense,
468
00:10:27.490 --> 00:10:29.590
and that you get worried if you don't
469
00:10:29.820 --> 00:10:32.480
run ads early that your opponent will define you.
470
00:10:32.730 --> 00:10:35.080
The only ads they'll be seeing will be negative ads about you,
471
00:10:35.250 --> 00:10:36.470
positive ads about them.
472
00:10:36.970 --> 00:10:38.240
And you will be in a lot,
473
00:10:38.330 --> 00:10:39.490
a whole heap of trouble.
474
00:10:40.010 --> 00:10:40.480
Trump,
475
00:10:40.730 --> 00:10:41.040
I think,
476
00:10:41.090 --> 00:10:42.120
has basically said,
477
00:10:42.270 --> 00:10:42.430
look,
478
00:10:42.570 --> 00:10:44.120
the media is gonna cover us anyway.
479
00:10:44.420 --> 00:10:45.970
They're gonna cover these races anyway.
480
00:10:46.290 --> 00:10:47.800
We're of course gonna get trashed by the media,
481
00:10:47.890 --> 00:10:50.590
but we'll have a chance to make our arguments in those moments.
482
00:10:50.730 --> 00:10:53.380
And what we need is to dump money into the,
483
00:10:53.570 --> 00:10:54.360
the structure,
484
00:10:54.650 --> 00:10:54.950
right?
485
00:10:55.170 --> 00:10:56.400
The turning points of the world,
486
00:10:56.530 --> 00:10:56.680
right,
487
00:10:56.770 --> 00:10:59.480
who are really working behind the scenes to get people out to vote.
488
00:10:59.610 --> 00:11:00.590
So you work hard on that,
489
00:11:00.850 --> 00:11:01.640
spend the money there.
490
00:11:02.020 --> 00:11:04.970
And on the ads you kind of wait till more of the last minute.
491
00:11:05.340 --> 00:11:07.530
That is the Death Star that is here,
492
00:11:07.700 --> 00:11:07.850
uh,
493
00:11:07.940 --> 00:11:08.990
if you happen to,
494
00:11:09.220 --> 00:11:09.370
uh,
495
00:11:09.740 --> 00:11:10.830
understand and
496
00:11:11.260 --> 00:11:13.160
are OK with my very strained analogy,
497
00:11:13.380 --> 00:11:13.650
uh,
498
00:11:13.700 --> 00:11:14.540
at this point.
499
00:11:15.220 --> 00:11:15.290
Uh,
500
00:11:15.580 --> 00:11:18.690
Republicans are unleashing their fundraising advantage against the Democrats.
501
00:11:18.820 --> 00:11:19.460
President Trump
502
00:11:19.660 --> 00:11:22.890
and his allies are pouring money into key races to counter Democratic momentum
503
00:11:23.140 --> 00:11:23.890
ahead of the midterms.
504
00:11:24.020 --> 00:11:25.960
I want to give you some stats here from the Wall Street Journal,
505
00:11:25.980 --> 00:11:26.250
who are,
506
00:11:26.340 --> 00:11:28.160
who are the ones covering this.
507
00:11:28.340 --> 00:11:28.370
Uh,
508
00:11:28.500 --> 00:11:31.220
advertisers supporting Republicans across 10
509
00:11:31.460 --> 00:11:35.150
key Senate races have spent more than $204 million
510
00:11:35.300 --> 00:11:37.710
in the 1st 18 days of September.
511
00:11:38.020 --> 00:11:39.120
This is.
512
00:11:39.740 --> 00:11:40.450
The Death Star,
513
00:11:40.540 --> 00:11:41.770
they are unleashing it.
514
00:11:41.860 --> 00:11:44.400
That's $83 million more
515
00:11:44.540 --> 00:11:46.010
than those helping Democrats.
516
00:11:46.430 --> 00:11:46.500
Uh,
517
00:11:46.590 --> 00:11:50.060
it is a sharp turn from all of August when basically they were even.
518
00:11:50.110 --> 00:11:52.660
It's a few million dollars advantage for Republicans in August,
519
00:11:52.750 --> 00:11:53.520
but before that
520
00:11:53.710 --> 00:11:55.050
it really was more heavily,
521
00:11:55.190 --> 00:11:55.260
uh,
522
00:11:55.670 --> 00:11:56.050
Democratic.
523
00:11:56.310 --> 00:11:56.500
Now,
524
00:11:56.590 --> 00:11:57.580
let me show you a few of the,
525
00:11:57.690 --> 00:11:57.980
uh,
526
00:11:58.230 --> 00:11:59.910
a few of the markets here in a second,
527
00:12:00.030 --> 00:12:01.970
but I wanna give you a couple of these stats,
528
00:12:02.230 --> 00:12:02.500
um,
529
00:12:02.830 --> 00:12:03.060
as,
530
00:12:03.080 --> 00:12:03.690
uh,
531
00:12:04.070 --> 00:12:04.260
uh,
532
00:12:04.390 --> 00:12:05.160
this is kind of a,
533
00:12:05.280 --> 00:12:05.550
uh,
534
00:12:05.830 --> 00:12:05.900
uh,
535
00:12:06.000 --> 00:12:06.100
uh,
536
00:12:06.190 --> 00:12:06.660
just a cute,
537
00:12:06.750 --> 00:12:07.060
I had,
538
00:12:07.110 --> 00:12:07.930
I have to bring this up.
539
00:12:07.950 --> 00:12:10.820
A quick sidebar from the prediction market Republican.
540
00:12:11.180 --> 00:12:11.570
Um,
541
00:12:11.720 --> 00:12:12.050
um,
542
00:12:12.300 --> 00:12:12.850
consensus,
543
00:12:12.980 --> 00:12:13.050
uh,
544
00:12:13.220 --> 00:12:14.160
sort of view here.
545
00:12:14.420 --> 00:12:15.230
This is a quote.
546
00:12:15.620 --> 00:12:15.930
Quote,
547
00:12:16.140 --> 00:12:17.820
The hole that Donald Trump has dug for the,
548
00:12:18.070 --> 00:12:18.080
uh,
549
00:12:18.340 --> 00:12:21.330
Republicans and continues to dig every day is not something that can be
550
00:12:21.330 --> 00:12:24.730
made up with a few $100 million worth of feel-good ads said.
551
00:12:26.050 --> 00:12:27.330
Elizabeth Warren.
552
00:12:28.240 --> 00:12:29.890
Saying that people are angry about the economy,
553
00:12:30.160 --> 00:12:30.270
uh,
554
00:12:30.400 --> 00:12:31.650
and the Iran war and corruption.
555
00:12:31.680 --> 00:12:33.660
You might remember the name Elizabeth Warren,
556
00:12:33.920 --> 00:12:35.660
the person who's been telling you
557
00:12:36.040 --> 00:12:40.780
since Citizens United that anyone who now all billionaires can just buy elections.
558
00:12:41.010 --> 00:12:41.150
Well,
559
00:12:41.280 --> 00:12:43.810
why doesn't $100 million move the needle then,
560
00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:44.900
Liz?
561
00:12:45.960 --> 00:12:46.790
I'm curious,
562
00:12:47.000 --> 00:12:50.270
is it because your entire point that whole time was nonsense?
563
00:12:50.360 --> 00:12:51.300
Could it be that?
564
00:12:51.560 --> 00:12:53.350
Could it be that you can't actually buy?
565
00:12:53.400 --> 00:12:56.350
Ask Michael Bloomberg how easy it is to buy an election.
566
00:12:57.570 --> 00:12:58.130
Oh gosh,
567
00:12:58.170 --> 00:12:59.030
it's so stupid.
568
00:12:59.210 --> 00:13:00.980
The most dramatic uptick came in Texas,
569
00:13:01.090 --> 00:13:04.550
$62 million in ads supporting Ken Paxton this month
570
00:13:04.770 --> 00:13:06.860
compared to about $17 million
571
00:13:07.170 --> 00:13:07.920
behind Democratic
572
00:13:08.210 --> 00:13:09.890
candidate James Tallarico.
573
00:13:10.180 --> 00:13:12.940
This is the total reverse as to what we've seen
574
00:13:13.130 --> 00:13:13.790
until this month.
575
00:13:14.090 --> 00:13:14.640
Before this month,
576
00:13:15.000 --> 00:13:17.360
James Tallarico was outspending Ken Paxton
577
00:13:17.650 --> 00:13:19.430
6789 to 1.
578
00:13:19.770 --> 00:13:20.550
And now
579
00:13:20.930 --> 00:13:21.980
Republican money is coming in.
580
00:13:22.050 --> 00:13:22.160
Now,
581
00:13:22.220 --> 00:13:22.370
the,
582
00:13:22.530 --> 00:13:24.480
the polls have not really improved for Paxton.
583
00:13:24.650 --> 00:13:25.200
Spoiler alert.
584
00:13:25.220 --> 00:13:26.560
I'm gonna talk about that here in a second,
585
00:13:26.850 --> 00:13:27.100
but.
586
00:13:27.640 --> 00:13:29.180
This is the effort to be put in
587
00:13:29.400 --> 00:13:29.630
to say,
588
00:13:29.720 --> 00:13:29.870
hey,
589
00:13:29.960 --> 00:13:32.260
Ken Paxson actually is putting criminals in prison.
590
00:13:32.480 --> 00:13:32.550
Uh,
591
00:13:32.640 --> 00:13:33.270
I've seen the ads.
592
00:13:33.330 --> 00:13:34.700
I see them constantly here.
593
00:13:34.920 --> 00:13:35.070
Um,
594
00:13:35.320 --> 00:13:36.830
Ken Paxson's putting people away in prison.
595
00:13:36.900 --> 00:13:39.200
He's put away people who were abusing children,
596
00:13:39.320 --> 00:13:40.630
who had this network of,
597
00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:41.270
of weird,
598
00:13:41.400 --> 00:13:41.470
uh,
599
00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:41.790
you know,
600
00:13:41.920 --> 00:13:43.230
pedophiles and all that other stuff.
601
00:13:43.320 --> 00:13:44.490
He's pushing back against that.
602
00:13:44.720 --> 00:13:45.070
He's,
603
00:13:45.240 --> 00:13:45.350
uh,
604
00:13:45.680 --> 00:13:45.950
putting,
605
00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:46.190
uh,
606
00:13:46.280 --> 00:13:49.270
shame on Tallarico for all the crazy stuff he's said over the years,
607
00:13:49.440 --> 00:13:49.460
uh,
608
00:13:49.610 --> 00:13:50.790
and said during woke one,
609
00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:51.350
which you might remember.
610
00:13:51.630 --> 00:13:52.790
Woke one was crazy.
611
00:13:52.990 --> 00:13:53.060
Well,
612
00:13:53.150 --> 00:13:55.180
it was crazy and James Tallarico was a huge part of that,
613
00:13:55.230 --> 00:13:56.450
and that's one of the reasons why
614
00:13:56.630 --> 00:13:58.750
uh Paxson is constantly out there saying,
615
00:13:59.040 --> 00:13:59.240
you know,
616
00:13:59.430 --> 00:14:02.360
basically running ads that are quoting James Tallarico,
617
00:14:02.590 --> 00:14:04.020
old-time James Tallarico,
618
00:14:04.270 --> 00:14:04.510
back,
619
00:14:04.590 --> 00:14:06.820
I don't know if you remember how old you were in 2020,
620
00:14:07.110 --> 00:14:07.220
uh,
621
00:14:07.310 --> 00:14:09.900
but way back in 2020 and 2021 when he was saying
622
00:14:09.900 --> 00:14:12.050
these things that he now says he doesn't believe anymore,
623
00:14:12.350 --> 00:14:14.660
conveniently when he's trying to appeal to,
624
00:14:14.790 --> 00:14:14.810
uh,
625
00:14:14.870 --> 00:14:15.380
moderates.
626
00:14:16.210 --> 00:14:17.370
Georgia and North Carolina
627
00:14:17.590 --> 00:14:20.630
races considered leaning toward Democrats at spending margins are tighter
628
00:14:20.730 --> 00:14:22.190
and activity ramped up in August.
629
00:14:22.450 --> 00:14:23.000
Since then,
630
00:14:23.340 --> 00:14:23.570
uh,
631
00:14:23.890 --> 00:14:26.510
spending supporting Senator Jon Ossoff totaled
632
00:14:26.650 --> 00:14:31.040
$35 million compared to $26 million for his GOP opponent Mike Collins,
633
00:14:31.330 --> 00:14:31.440
uh,
634
00:14:31.530 --> 00:14:33.030
in North Carolina at spending,
635
00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:33.600
uh,
636
00:14:33.850 --> 00:14:34.470
favoring,
637
00:14:34.610 --> 00:14:34.810
um,
638
00:14:35.090 --> 00:14:36.710
Republican National Committee member,
639
00:14:37.130 --> 00:14:37.190
uh,
640
00:14:37.330 --> 00:14:41.150
and former chair Michael Watley totaled $33 million in August
641
00:14:41.330 --> 00:14:43.750
ahead of $25 million for Roy Cooper.
642
00:14:43.850 --> 00:14:44.560
I will say this.
643
00:14:45.440 --> 00:14:46.820
You gotta spend your money in the right places.
644
00:14:47.550 --> 00:14:49.770
Spending tens of millions of dollars in those two races,
645
00:14:50.070 --> 00:14:50.730
I would argue,
646
00:14:51.150 --> 00:14:52.330
not good use of your money.
647
00:14:52.670 --> 00:14:54.920
And that's not offense to any of the guys running in those,
648
00:14:55.070 --> 00:14:55.260
I know,
649
00:14:55.360 --> 00:14:55.370
uh,
650
00:14:55.470 --> 00:14:56.170
Ossoff and,
651
00:14:56.270 --> 00:14:56.460
uh,
652
00:14:56.830 --> 00:14:57.180
excuse me,
653
00:14:57.310 --> 00:14:57.380
uh,
654
00:14:57.590 --> 00:14:58.600
Collins and Watley
655
00:14:58.790 --> 00:14:59.500
have high hopes.
656
00:14:59.550 --> 00:15:00.930
They want to win those races.
657
00:15:01.230 --> 00:15:03.500
I really think it's an uphill battle and Republicans
658
00:15:03.500 --> 00:15:05.860
have to get serious and make tough choices.
659
00:15:06.190 --> 00:15:09.740
If you are gonna spend a bunch of money to try to unseat Jon Ossoff right now,
660
00:15:09.800 --> 00:15:10.970
I think you're gonna be disappointed.
661
00:15:11.390 --> 00:15:11.900
And that money,
662
00:15:11.950 --> 00:15:14.060
$26 million could go to Paxton,
663
00:15:14.350 --> 00:15:16.730
could go to some of these other races we're about to talk about.
664
00:15:17.090 --> 00:15:17.200
Uh,
665
00:15:17.330 --> 00:15:17.710
here,
666
00:15:17.970 --> 00:15:18.160
um,
667
00:15:18.410 --> 00:15:21.360
$78 million has been spent since August in Ohio,
668
00:15:21.610 --> 00:15:21.840
spending,
669
00:15:21.970 --> 00:15:22.080
uh,
670
00:15:22.410 --> 00:15:23.250
supporting Husted,
671
00:15:23.370 --> 00:15:23.970
John Husted.
672
00:15:24.450 --> 00:15:24.640
Um,
673
00:15:24.910 --> 00:15:25.950
ad impact shows
674
00:15:26.170 --> 00:15:29.030
ahead of $57 million for Brown.
675
00:15:29.370 --> 00:15:29.710
Um,
676
00:15:29.890 --> 00:15:30.400
in Maine,
677
00:15:30.610 --> 00:15:31.400
backers of Collins,
678
00:15:31.540 --> 00:15:33.920
Susan Collins have spent $41 million since August,
679
00:15:34.010 --> 00:15:35.550
more than $29 million for
680
00:15:35.670 --> 00:15:36.680
Troy Jackson.
681
00:15:37.250 --> 00:15:38.320
Republicans need to do this.
682
00:15:38.450 --> 00:15:42.150
They're now looking at other seats that seemed insurmountable at the time.
683
00:15:42.770 --> 00:15:43.510
Seats like,
684
00:15:43.730 --> 00:15:44.260
I don't know,
685
00:15:44.490 --> 00:15:45.280
Kansas.
686
00:15:45.920 --> 00:15:46.150
Where,
687
00:15:46.320 --> 00:15:46.390
uh,
688
00:15:46.520 --> 00:15:46.630
uh,
689
00:15:46.720 --> 00:15:48.710
Roger Marshall is facing an upstart
690
00:15:48.710 --> 00:15:50.670
challenge from Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton.
691
00:15:50.720 --> 00:15:51.670
He's a minister
692
00:15:51.960 --> 00:15:52.530
in a church that,
693
00:15:52.640 --> 00:15:52.830
you know,
694
00:15:52.920 --> 00:15:54.830
like a social justice type church,
695
00:15:55.120 --> 00:15:55.230
uh,
696
00:15:55.320 --> 00:15:56.710
at least that's how he's running it.
697
00:15:56.760 --> 00:15:59.700
I don't know how the constituents of the church are or what they think,
698
00:15:59.920 --> 00:16:00.070
um,
699
00:16:00.160 --> 00:16:00.290
but,
700
00:16:00.320 --> 00:16:00.510
you know,
701
00:16:00.600 --> 00:16:00.610
he,
702
00:16:00.800 --> 00:16:00.950
you know,
703
00:16:01.080 --> 00:16:01.230
they,
704
00:16:01.400 --> 00:16:02.030
they did a bunch of,
705
00:16:02.140 --> 00:16:02.280
you know,
706
00:16:02.400 --> 00:16:02.690
kind of,
707
00:16:02.960 --> 00:16:03.070
again,
708
00:16:03.200 --> 00:16:04.000
woke one was crazy,
709
00:16:04.090 --> 00:16:04.470
wasn't it?
710
00:16:04.870 --> 00:16:04.980
Uh,
711
00:16:05.110 --> 00:16:05.650
you also have,
712
00:16:05.710 --> 00:16:05.780
uh,
713
00:16:05.930 --> 00:16:07.220
Senator Sherrod Brown is,
714
00:16:07.270 --> 00:16:07.460
of course,
715
00:16:07.510 --> 00:16:08.150
the opponent in,
716
00:16:08.270 --> 00:16:09.060
in Alabama,
717
00:16:09.140 --> 00:16:09.150
uh,
718
00:16:09.230 --> 00:16:09.510
excuse me,
719
00:16:09.630 --> 00:16:10.070
Ohio.
720
00:16:10.310 --> 00:16:11.180
And then in Alaska,
721
00:16:11.270 --> 00:16:11.730
you have,
722
00:16:11.870 --> 00:16:11.900
uh,
723
00:16:12.030 --> 00:16:13.010
Dan Sullivan against
724
00:16:13.270 --> 00:16:14.020
Mary Peltola,
725
00:16:14.040 --> 00:16:14.380
who's a,
726
00:16:14.470 --> 00:16:14.620
you know,
727
00:16:14.710 --> 00:16:16.980
very good candidate in Alaska for Alaska.
728
00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:17.750
Um,
729
00:16:18.000 --> 00:16:18.310
by the way,
730
00:16:18.370 --> 00:16:19.330
I've mentioned this market before,
731
00:16:19.520 --> 00:16:19.750
we don't,
732
00:16:19.840 --> 00:16:20.950
we're not gonna be able to pull up the graphic,
733
00:16:20.970 --> 00:16:22.980
but I've mentioned this market before and I love this market.
734
00:16:23.200 --> 00:16:25.350
Who will Bernie Sanders endorse in these races?
735
00:16:25.430 --> 00:16:27.460
And there's a bunch of these candidates that I'm talking about,
736
00:16:27.640 --> 00:16:29.140
these moderate sort of races
737
00:16:29.400 --> 00:16:30.390
where Bernie Sanders,
738
00:16:30.610 --> 00:16:31.230
will he endorse,
739
00:16:31.280 --> 00:16:31.440
you know,
740
00:16:31.560 --> 00:16:32.350
Mary Peltola,
741
00:16:32.640 --> 00:16:33.420
will he endorse
742
00:16:33.600 --> 00:16:35.030
James Tallarico in Texas?
743
00:16:35.280 --> 00:16:38.830
These are all races where the Democrats are doing everything they can.
744
00:16:39.480 --> 00:16:39.810
Look at,
745
00:16:40.000 --> 00:16:40.470
wow,
746
00:16:40.670 --> 00:16:43.190
look at the speed of that control room over there,
747
00:16:43.320 --> 00:16:44.230
bringing up the markets.
748
00:16:44.850 --> 00:16:45.380
Uh,
749
00:16:46.370 --> 00:16:47.000
James Talrico,
750
00:16:47.090 --> 00:16:47.320
will he,
751
00:16:47.530 --> 00:16:48.680
now it's down to 20%.
752
00:16:48.900 --> 00:16:50.060
Dan Osborne's another great 1,
753
00:16:50.090 --> 00:16:50.880
15%.
754
00:16:51.130 --> 00:16:51.880
Will he endorse him?
755
00:16:51.970 --> 00:16:54.490
Why would Bernie Sanders endorse any of these people?
756
00:16:54.940 --> 00:16:55.050
Uh,
757
00:16:55.420 --> 00:16:55.660
you know,
758
00:16:55.810 --> 00:16:57.040
in these moderate races.
759
00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:59.240
They're trying to convince voters
760
00:16:59.780 --> 00:17:01.050
that they are,
761
00:17:01.190 --> 00:17:01.710
uh,
762
00:17:01.940 --> 00:17:02.130
you know,
763
00:17:02.260 --> 00:17:05.500
people who are moderates and they are basically Republicans.
764
00:17:05.579 --> 00:17:05.890
I mean,
765
00:17:06.069 --> 00:17:06.079
uh,
766
00:17:06.540 --> 00:17:08.890
they just couldn't get their name on the Republican ballot in time.
767
00:17:09.140 --> 00:17:09.970
They're independents,
768
00:17:10.060 --> 00:17:10.730
they're Democrats,
769
00:17:10.900 --> 00:17:11.599
trust us.
770
00:17:12.099 --> 00:17:13.660
Why would Bernie Sanders do this?
771
00:17:13.700 --> 00:17:13.770
Now,
772
00:17:13.859 --> 00:17:15.290
Bernie Sanders is a little nutty.
773
00:17:15.790 --> 00:17:15.930
Uh,
774
00:17:16.109 --> 00:17:16.930
he will do things
775
00:17:17.550 --> 00:17:18.740
outside of the grand plan,
776
00:17:18.950 --> 00:17:20.250
so there is a chance,
777
00:17:20.520 --> 00:17:20.530
uh,
778
00:17:20.710 --> 00:17:21.819
that he does endorse in these races,
779
00:17:21.869 --> 00:17:22.180
but I have,
780
00:17:22.349 --> 00:17:22.380
uh,
781
00:17:22.470 --> 00:17:24.890
money on a bunch of these candidates because I don't believe
782
00:17:25.260 --> 00:17:26.470
it wouldn't make any sense if,
783
00:17:26.510 --> 00:17:27.849
if Bernie Sanders
784
00:17:28.000 --> 00:17:29.660
endorsed James Tallarico today,
785
00:17:29.830 --> 00:17:34.140
it would appear in zero James Tallarico ads and every Ken Paxton ad.
786
00:17:35.110 --> 00:17:38.410
There would be no reason for him to do that unless he's just
787
00:17:38.740 --> 00:17:41.010
trying to sink the Tallarico campaign.
788
00:17:41.590 --> 00:17:43.050
So I love those.
789
00:17:43.140 --> 00:17:44.690
I love that market right now.
790
00:17:44.820 --> 00:17:45.840
The question is how much
791
00:17:46.060 --> 00:17:47.330
um volume is in there,
792
00:17:47.380 --> 00:17:47.850
but anyway,
793
00:17:47.940 --> 00:17:49.010
that's a little side benefit.
794
00:17:49.140 --> 00:17:49.700
Not even,
795
00:17:49.980 --> 00:17:50.810
here's one I kind of like,
796
00:17:50.900 --> 00:17:51.760
it's one I love
797
00:17:52.020 --> 00:17:54.290
and uh and and that's that one's coming to you for free.
798
00:17:54.710 --> 00:17:54.860
You know,
799
00:17:55.190 --> 00:17:58.740
the least you could do is go to predictableShow.com and become a free subscriber
800
00:17:58.990 --> 00:18:01.240
after a piece of a nugget like that.
801
00:18:01.470 --> 00:18:02.660
Something that's guaranteed,
802
00:18:02.990 --> 00:18:03.740
not at all guaranteed,
803
00:18:03.790 --> 00:18:04.650
but guaranteed,
804
00:18:04.870 --> 00:18:05.020
uh,
805
00:18:05.190 --> 00:18:05.370
in,
806
00:18:05.390 --> 00:18:06.330
in parlance,
807
00:18:06.510 --> 00:18:06.580
uh,
808
00:18:06.710 --> 00:18:06.860
to,
809
00:18:06.950 --> 00:18:07.060
uh,
810
00:18:07.150 --> 00:18:07.260
to,
811
00:18:07.390 --> 00:18:07.860
to profit.
812
00:18:07.950 --> 00:18:08.630
I think it's a great position.
813
00:18:08.710 --> 00:18:09.630
I actually really like that one,
814
00:18:09.750 --> 00:18:10.570
so I'm gonna keep
815
00:18:10.700 --> 00:18:11.620
trying to grow that position.
816
00:18:12.160 --> 00:18:14.530
The problem is I started buying it all this stuff really early,
817
00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:16.360
and now none of it seems like a value,
818
00:18:16.750 --> 00:18:17.870
because I'm not the only person.
819
00:18:17.960 --> 00:18:18.470
Apparently,
820
00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:18.840
the,
821
00:18:18.960 --> 00:18:19.220
the,
822
00:18:19.360 --> 00:18:21.670
the premium subscribers are already looking at that and saying,
823
00:18:21.760 --> 00:18:22.230
wait a minute,
824
00:18:22.360 --> 00:18:23.250
I'm gonna do that too,
825
00:18:23.400 --> 00:18:24.780
and a bunch of other people are deciding it,
826
00:18:24.800 --> 00:18:25.110
and now,
827
00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:27.000
now it's the prices aren't quite as good as they were.
828
00:18:27.080 --> 00:18:27.620
So now,
829
00:18:27.640 --> 00:18:29.110
I don't feel like putting more money into it
830
00:18:29.110 --> 00:18:30.630
because now they don't feel like good prices.
831
00:18:31.110 --> 00:18:31.500
To me,
832
00:18:31.670 --> 00:18:32.020
but to you,
833
00:18:32.070 --> 00:18:32.650
I bet they are.
834
00:18:32.710 --> 00:18:33.100
Anyway,
835
00:18:33.230 --> 00:18:33.300
uh,
836
00:18:33.350 --> 00:18:34.380
let me show you some of these other markets.
837
00:18:34.470 --> 00:18:34.530
Uh,
838
00:18:34.670 --> 00:18:34.940
Georgia,
839
00:18:35.030 --> 00:18:35.300
Senate,
840
00:18:35.510 --> 00:18:35.690
uh,
841
00:18:35.830 --> 00:18:36.210
this is,
842
00:18:36.280 --> 00:18:36.540
uh,
843
00:18:36.800 --> 00:18:37.740
Collins and Ossoff.
844
00:18:37.860 --> 00:18:38.050
Look,
845
00:18:38.320 --> 00:18:39.230
the bottom line is
846
00:18:39.350 --> 00:18:40.000
I have a bunch of,
847
00:18:40.070 --> 00:18:40.460
uh,
848
00:18:40.570 --> 00:18:40.830
uh,
849
00:18:41.270 --> 00:18:41.340
high,
850
00:18:41.470 --> 00:18:41.540
uh,
851
00:18:41.670 --> 00:18:41.900
money,
852
00:18:41.990 --> 00:18:42.020
uh,
853
00:18:42.070 --> 00:18:43.520
position on Jon Ossoff,
854
00:18:43.830 --> 00:18:43.900
uh,
855
00:18:43.990 --> 00:18:44.580
to win this race.
856
00:18:44.630 --> 00:18:46.610
I don't think Mike Collins is going to win it.
857
00:18:47.110 --> 00:18:47.180
Uh,
858
00:18:47.310 --> 00:18:48.790
it's at 93.5%.
859
00:18:49.110 --> 00:18:49.420
Again,
860
00:18:49.550 --> 00:18:51.580
we're talking about tens of millions of dollars
861
00:18:51.580 --> 00:18:53.680
Republicans are putting into this race right now.
862
00:18:53.830 --> 00:18:55.220
You gotta make tough choices.
863
00:18:55.350 --> 00:18:55.940
North Carolina,
864
00:18:55.990 --> 00:18:56.850
the same story.
865
00:18:57.070 --> 00:18:58.050
North Carolina is,
866
00:18:58.430 --> 00:18:59.190
is Roy Cooper.
867
00:18:59.310 --> 00:18:59.970
Cooper is a,
868
00:19:00.030 --> 00:19:00.870
is a tough
869
00:19:01.260 --> 00:19:03.070
candidate because he's well known in the state,
870
00:19:03.270 --> 00:19:05.740
and it's just like one of these races that I just don't
871
00:19:05.740 --> 00:19:07.580
think Michael Watley is gonna get over the finish line on this.
872
00:19:07.670 --> 00:19:09.900
I would like him to personally as a conservative,
873
00:19:10.320 --> 00:19:10.650
but
874
00:19:10.900 --> 00:19:11.030
look,
875
00:19:11.070 --> 00:19:12.240
I just don't think it's gonna happen,
876
00:19:12.270 --> 00:19:14.240
and these are the types of races you just need to cut bait,
877
00:19:14.470 --> 00:19:14.530
uh,
878
00:19:14.590 --> 00:19:15.710
bait on eventually
879
00:19:15.870 --> 00:19:16.540
and just give up.
880
00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:17.140
Uh,
881
00:19:17.280 --> 00:19:17.670
but I,
882
00:19:17.760 --> 00:19:17.950
you know,
883
00:19:18.120 --> 00:19:18.230
again,
884
00:19:18.320 --> 00:19:19.220
if I'm Michael Watley,
885
00:19:19.240 --> 00:19:19.520
I'm like,
886
00:19:19.560 --> 00:19:19.670
uh,
887
00:19:19.800 --> 00:19:20.110
no,
888
00:19:20.410 --> 00:19:20.870
don't do that,
889
00:19:21.000 --> 00:19:21.410
please.
890
00:19:21.640 --> 00:19:21.710
Uh,
891
00:19:21.800 --> 00:19:21.990
it's,
892
00:19:22.120 --> 00:19:22.270
I mean,
893
00:19:22.320 --> 00:19:23.180
the polls aren't,
894
00:19:23.440 --> 00:19:24.940
it's not like 20 point margins here.
895
00:19:25.040 --> 00:19:26.470
I think it's high single digits,
896
00:19:26.520 --> 00:19:26.990
but with the,
897
00:19:27.080 --> 00:19:28.650
with the climate that we're in,
898
00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:30.190
it's a little bit difficult,
899
00:19:30.400 --> 00:19:32.360
and I would say those are some that you might want to think about.
900
00:19:32.480 --> 00:19:32.590
Now,
901
00:19:32.720 --> 00:19:35.130
I disagree with cutting bait by any means in,
902
00:19:35.240 --> 00:19:35.950
in Maine.
903
00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:37.830
I think this is a true toss-up race,
904
00:19:37.920 --> 00:19:38.720
maybe the most tossiest.
905
00:19:39.360 --> 00:19:40.580
Of all of our toss-ups
906
00:19:40.760 --> 00:19:41.110
in Maine,
907
00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:42.370
Susan Collins is there.
908
00:19:42.560 --> 00:19:42.630
Uh,
909
00:19:42.760 --> 00:19:43.140
and again,
910
00:19:43.280 --> 00:19:43.430
you know,
911
00:19:43.560 --> 00:19:46.280
Troy Jackson is at 68% to win this race.
912
00:19:46.640 --> 00:19:47.670
I think that is overblown.
913
00:19:47.740 --> 00:19:48.660
You see the way that this,
914
00:19:48.680 --> 00:19:48.750
uh,
915
00:19:48.920 --> 00:19:50.140
market has moved though.
916
00:19:50.400 --> 00:19:50.710
Um,
917
00:19:51.120 --> 00:19:52.190
Graham Plattner was way ahead,
918
00:19:52.280 --> 00:19:52.890
had his scandals,
919
00:19:52.920 --> 00:19:56.010
it crashed back down to basically 50/50 and has expanded ever since.
920
00:19:56.200 --> 00:19:57.510
Troy Jackson at 68%,
921
00:19:57.680 --> 00:19:58.630
Susan Collins at 32%.
922
00:19:58.720 --> 00:19:59.580
I continue to think
923
00:19:59.760 --> 00:20:00.750
Collins is a value.
924
00:20:01.040 --> 00:20:03.060
From 30 to 35 cents in that range,
925
00:20:03.380 --> 00:20:03.510
uh,
926
00:20:03.750 --> 00:20:05.340
because I think there's a good chance,
927
00:20:05.600 --> 00:20:05.640
uh,
928
00:20:05.760 --> 00:20:07.410
that she's gonna be very close in this race,
929
00:20:07.480 --> 00:20:08.220
and who knows.
930
00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:08.590
Uh,
931
00:20:08.720 --> 00:20:09.350
and then in Michigan,
932
00:20:09.520 --> 00:20:10.760
another one I think is a toss-up.
933
00:20:10.960 --> 00:20:13.460
This is another place where a lot of money going in by the Republicans,
934
00:20:13.480 --> 00:20:13.740
and again,
935
00:20:13.760 --> 00:20:15.430
I think this is a good targeting of money,
936
00:20:15.640 --> 00:20:15.900
though
937
00:20:16.030 --> 00:20:18.620
Abdul Al Sayed is up to a 66% chance
938
00:20:18.830 --> 00:20:19.760
to win this race,
939
00:20:20.020 --> 00:20:20.670
according to Calsie,
940
00:20:20.760 --> 00:20:22.830
Mike Rogers at 34%.
941
00:20:23.480 --> 00:20:24.510
The main reason I would just say,
942
00:20:24.640 --> 00:20:24.670
uh,
943
00:20:24.810 --> 00:20:25.930
the thing I would say here
944
00:20:26.200 --> 00:20:27.340
is right now,
945
00:20:27.720 --> 00:20:29.030
the Democrats are on a sugar high.
946
00:20:29.630 --> 00:20:30.130
Um,
947
00:20:30.470 --> 00:20:31.410
two things have happened,
948
00:20:31.670 --> 00:20:31.690
uh,
949
00:20:32.110 --> 00:20:32.500
outside of,
950
00:20:32.650 --> 00:20:32.670
uh,
951
00:20:32.970 --> 00:20:34.110
everything that we're talking about today.
952
00:20:34.390 --> 00:20:34.810
One,
953
00:20:35.170 --> 00:20:36.710
Is a New York Times Sienna poll,
954
00:20:36.730 --> 00:20:39.650
a very highly respected pollster that was disastrous for Republicans.
955
00:20:39.720 --> 00:20:40.780
It was only one poll,
956
00:20:40.880 --> 00:20:42.560
but it's a poll that affects all these models,
957
00:20:42.720 --> 00:20:43.780
including the predictable
958
00:20:43.880 --> 00:20:44.830
midterm consensus,
959
00:20:44.880 --> 00:20:45.720
the PMC,
960
00:20:45.960 --> 00:20:46.150
uh,
961
00:20:46.880 --> 00:20:47.430
constantly.
962
00:20:47.970 --> 00:20:49.910
And uh it really affects them,
963
00:20:50.160 --> 00:20:51.040
really has a lot of weight,
964
00:20:51.130 --> 00:20:54.200
and it's very recent and it was terrible for Republicans all over the board.
965
00:20:54.490 --> 00:20:55.370
So that's part one.
966
00:20:55.570 --> 00:20:59.460
Part two is a lot of these polls have changed the way that they
967
00:20:59.800 --> 00:21:01.330
uh include voters
968
00:21:01.570 --> 00:21:01.950
for,
969
00:21:02.090 --> 00:21:02.280
uh,
970
00:21:02.370 --> 00:21:04.540
up until basically Labor Day or so
971
00:21:04.800 --> 00:21:06.020
they used the,
972
00:21:06.130 --> 00:21:06.910
uh,
973
00:21:07.130 --> 00:21:09.240
the registered voter model where they would say,
974
00:21:09.330 --> 00:21:10.210
are you registered to vote?
975
00:21:10.330 --> 00:21:10.450
Yes,
976
00:21:10.530 --> 00:21:10.830
I am.
977
00:21:10.970 --> 00:21:11.120
OK,
978
00:21:11.170 --> 00:21:11.800
you're included.
979
00:21:12.760 --> 00:21:14.660
What they are converting to now is a
980
00:21:15.040 --> 00:21:16.350
likely voter screen.
981
00:21:16.560 --> 00:21:17.110
They are saying,
982
00:21:17.320 --> 00:21:17.430
uh,
983
00:21:17.600 --> 00:21:17.870
trying to,
984
00:21:18.000 --> 00:21:21.750
they give you multiple tests essentially to see if you're actually a likely voter.
985
00:21:21.880 --> 00:21:24.790
If you are a registered voter that hasn't voted in the past 5 elections,
986
00:21:25.000 --> 00:21:25.070
well,
987
00:21:25.160 --> 00:21:25.480
guess what?
988
00:21:25.510 --> 00:21:26.710
You're not a likely voter.
989
00:21:26.840 --> 00:21:28.190
They don't think you're gonna vote in this one.
990
00:21:28.360 --> 00:21:31.460
If you skip every midterm and you only vote in presidential elections,
991
00:21:31.680 --> 00:21:32.430
they don't think you're gonna vote,
992
00:21:32.520 --> 00:21:33.620
so you're not gonna be included.
993
00:21:34.160 --> 00:21:35.110
A lot of that has to do with,
994
00:21:35.360 --> 00:21:35.520
with,
995
00:21:35.680 --> 00:21:35.750
uh,
996
00:21:35.800 --> 00:21:36.590
enthusiasm.
997
00:21:36.680 --> 00:21:38.230
And right now I was talking to somebody
998
00:21:38.230 --> 00:21:40.560
recently who's very tied into Texas politics.
999
00:21:40.980 --> 00:21:43.110
Who basically told me like what they think,
1000
00:21:43.380 --> 00:21:43.580
um,
1001
00:21:43.740 --> 00:21:45.880
what is going on right now is that there are a few
1002
00:21:45.900 --> 00:21:48.650
frustration points with the president and the way things are going,
1003
00:21:48.980 --> 00:21:49.090
uh,
1004
00:21:49.180 --> 00:21:50.080
the Iran war,
1005
00:21:50.260 --> 00:21:51.170
gas prices,
1006
00:21:51.310 --> 00:21:51.930
tariffs,
1007
00:21:52.060 --> 00:21:53.120
a few other things.
1008
00:21:53.700 --> 00:21:54.770
And because of that,
1009
00:21:54.940 --> 00:21:56.480
what Republicans are worried about
1010
00:21:56.620 --> 00:21:57.760
is that Republicans won't
1011
00:21:57.890 --> 00:21:58.810
get out to the polls.
1012
00:21:58.940 --> 00:21:59.570
They're just gonna not,
1013
00:21:59.630 --> 00:22:01.930
they're not gonna vote for James Tallarico in Texas,
1014
00:22:02.140 --> 00:22:03.570
but they are going to stay home,
1015
00:22:03.620 --> 00:22:04.890
and that's gonna be a big problem,
1016
00:22:05.140 --> 00:22:05.440
um,
1017
00:22:05.820 --> 00:22:07.250
for Republicans in those states.
1018
00:22:07.340 --> 00:22:07.670
Now,
1019
00:22:07.820 --> 00:22:11.320
we're seeing this reflected in All these changes that I'm talking about
1020
00:22:11.460 --> 00:22:13.440
are reflected in the prediction markets and
1021
00:22:13.660 --> 00:22:14.650
in the data overall.
1022
00:22:14.780 --> 00:22:17.350
Texas Senate race shifts to lean D
1023
00:22:17.500 --> 00:22:19.120
in prediction market forecast.
1024
00:22:19.380 --> 00:22:19.570
Yes,
1025
00:22:19.700 --> 00:22:19.890
I mean,
1026
00:22:19.980 --> 00:22:20.880
for a long time,
1027
00:22:21.220 --> 00:22:22.770
Ken Paxton was the slight favorite.
1028
00:22:22.900 --> 00:22:23.890
That's changing now.
1029
00:22:24.020 --> 00:22:26.130
Here's what that market looks like in Texas.
1030
00:22:26.460 --> 00:22:27.300
And you see,
1031
00:22:27.540 --> 00:22:27.770
uh,
1032
00:22:27.980 --> 00:22:30.230
now James Tallarico has a 58,
1033
00:22:30.660 --> 00:22:31.760
59%
1034
00:22:32.140 --> 00:22:32.570
leader.
1035
00:22:32.950 --> 00:22:33.020
Uh,
1036
00:22:33.150 --> 00:22:33.460
on this,
1037
00:22:33.510 --> 00:22:33.940
and you see,
1038
00:22:34.060 --> 00:22:34.250
really,
1039
00:22:34.310 --> 00:22:35.650
he didn't lead until
1040
00:22:35.790 --> 00:22:37.060
the beginning of this month.
1041
00:22:37.310 --> 00:22:39.220
It was basically fifty-fifty for a while.
1042
00:22:39.390 --> 00:22:40.380
Give me a month on this,
1043
00:22:40.550 --> 00:22:40.780
Adam,
1044
00:22:40.870 --> 00:22:40.980
uh,
1045
00:22:41.110 --> 00:22:43.860
as far as time frame goes and just show you how crazy this is.
1046
00:22:43.910 --> 00:22:44.060
I mean,
1047
00:22:44.110 --> 00:22:45.610
you really see it ticking up
1048
00:22:46.110 --> 00:22:46.730
quickly.
1049
00:22:47.110 --> 00:22:47.700
If you look at this,
1050
00:22:47.750 --> 00:22:48.410
you see
1051
00:22:48.710 --> 00:22:50.730
really a tie until mid-September,
1052
00:22:50.990 --> 00:22:52.890
and over the past couple of weeks,
1053
00:22:53.230 --> 00:22:56.520
we've apparently been completely convinced that James Tallarico
1054
00:22:56.790 --> 00:22:57.660
is going to win.
1055
00:22:57.780 --> 00:22:57.900
Look,
1056
00:22:58.030 --> 00:22:58.450
I
1057
00:22:59.050 --> 00:22:59.800
I have told you,
1058
00:22:59.850 --> 00:23:01.440
I have a couple of pieces of analysis on this.
1059
00:23:01.530 --> 00:23:03.680
I've given you large portions of data.
1060
00:23:03.730 --> 00:23:03.830
Uh,
1061
00:23:03.930 --> 00:23:05.670
we went over a big chunk of it
1062
00:23:05.840 --> 00:23:07.400
when we were talking about Greg Abbott earlier,
1063
00:23:07.530 --> 00:23:07.670
uh,
1064
00:23:07.770 --> 00:23:08.440
maybe last week.
1065
00:23:09.470 --> 00:23:11.290
My main central point here
1066
00:23:11.580 --> 00:23:13.010
with James Tallarico is,
1067
00:23:13.400 --> 00:23:15.100
how could this guy possibly win?
1068
00:23:15.350 --> 00:23:15.780
That's,
1069
00:23:15.910 --> 00:23:18.000
that's my main part of my analysis.
1070
00:23:18.150 --> 00:23:19.160
He is the most,
1071
00:23:19.470 --> 00:23:19.560
I,
1072
00:23:19.590 --> 00:23:19.830
I,
1073
00:23:19.870 --> 00:23:20.220
I like,
1074
00:23:20.250 --> 00:23:21.570
he looks like the,
1075
00:23:21.750 --> 00:23:22.180
the,
1076
00:23:22.270 --> 00:23:22.820
uh,
1077
00:23:23.030 --> 00:23:26.200
the youth pastor at your church that left a disgrace.
1078
00:23:26.390 --> 00:23:26.540
I,
1079
00:23:26.630 --> 00:23:27.610
I don't understand how
1080
00:23:27.710 --> 00:23:29.100
he can win a state like Texas.
1081
00:23:29.150 --> 00:23:29.890
I don't get it.
1082
00:23:30.600 --> 00:23:31.030
Who knows?
1083
00:23:31.120 --> 00:23:31.840
Maybe he will.
1084
00:23:32.030 --> 00:23:32.240
Now,
1085
00:23:32.480 --> 00:23:33.500
up until this point,
1086
00:23:34.160 --> 00:23:38.150
a good argument for it was he was outspending and out raising Ken Paxson 78,
1087
00:23:38.200 --> 00:23:39.040
and 9 to 1.
1088
00:23:39.440 --> 00:23:39.870
So yeah,
1089
00:23:40.000 --> 00:23:40.270
of course,
1090
00:23:40.290 --> 00:23:40.930
he can win.
1091
00:23:41.240 --> 00:23:42.390
He doesn't have that excuse now.
1092
00:23:42.420 --> 00:23:42.610
I mean,
1093
00:23:42.680 --> 00:23:43.170
in this,
1094
00:23:43.360 --> 00:23:44.020
in this article,
1095
00:23:44.160 --> 00:23:44.350
uh,
1096
00:23:44.760 --> 00:23:45.430
John Kennedy,
1097
00:23:45.580 --> 00:23:45.750
uh,
1098
00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:46.590
Senator Kennedy,
1099
00:23:46.640 --> 00:23:47.030
is it John,
1100
00:23:47.160 --> 00:23:47.180
right?
1101
00:23:47.200 --> 00:23:47.470
I can't,
1102
00:23:47.600 --> 00:23:47.610
yeah,
1103
00:23:47.800 --> 00:23:48.390
John Kennedy,
1104
00:23:48.580 --> 00:23:48.590
uh,
1105
00:23:48.720 --> 00:23:49.560
from Louisiana.
1106
00:23:49.800 --> 00:23:50.100
He has,
1107
00:23:50.120 --> 00:23:50.140
uh,
1108
00:23:50.280 --> 00:23:50.430
you know,
1109
00:23:50.480 --> 00:23:51.300
he's very quotable,
1110
00:23:51.320 --> 00:23:51.670
and he said,
1111
00:23:51.760 --> 00:23:53.020
I think if we're gonna have enough money,
1112
00:23:53.160 --> 00:23:54.300
I think we're gonna have enough money.
1113
00:23:54.480 --> 00:23:56.260
I think if we have a bad result in the midterms,
1114
00:23:56.400 --> 00:23:58.060
I don't think we're gonna be able to blame it on money.
1115
00:23:59.230 --> 00:23:59.770
Yeah,
1116
00:24:00.190 --> 00:24:00.980
this is what's happening.
1117
00:24:01.070 --> 00:24:02.240
This is the Death Star
1118
00:24:02.540 --> 00:24:03.780
being unleashed on this election.
1119
00:24:03.950 --> 00:24:05.570
Republicans are going to try
1120
00:24:05.710 --> 00:24:08.180
to do everything they can to put themselves in a good position to win.
1121
00:24:08.270 --> 00:24:08.930
And honestly,
1122
00:24:09.070 --> 00:24:11.450
you don't have to have a miracle in a place like Texas.
1123
00:24:11.630 --> 00:24:12.840
You don't have to have a miracle
1124
00:24:12.950 --> 00:24:15.780
in a place like Nebraska or Kansas.
1125
00:24:17.790 --> 00:24:18.940
That shouldn't be difficult.
1126
00:24:19.110 --> 00:24:20.760
This should be the easy part of the list.
1127
00:24:20.990 --> 00:24:21.180
Lift,
1128
00:24:21.230 --> 00:24:22.040
if you're a Republican,
1129
00:24:22.110 --> 00:24:23.410
you have to win those states.
1130
00:24:23.590 --> 00:24:26.010
And the catastrophic outcome that is possible
1131
00:24:26.150 --> 00:24:28.250
is now that window's opening a little bit.
1132
00:24:28.350 --> 00:24:30.540
It's no longer a 1 or 2 or 3% chance.
1133
00:24:30.630 --> 00:24:32.790
It might be a 10% or a 15% chance
1134
00:24:32.950 --> 00:24:34.340
of pure catastrophe for.
1135
00:24:34.560 --> 00:24:35.080
Republicans.
1136
00:24:35.360 --> 00:24:35.430
Uh,
1137
00:24:35.560 --> 00:24:36.690
that's where we are right now.
1138
00:24:37.000 --> 00:24:39.060
Republicans are doing something about it,
1139
00:24:39.220 --> 00:24:41.110
and what they're doing is throwing a bunch of
1140
00:24:41.110 --> 00:24:42.990
money at these elections and trying to turn,
1141
00:24:43.160 --> 00:24:43.210
you know,
1142
00:24:43.360 --> 00:24:44.540
stem the tide a little bit.
1143
00:24:44.800 --> 00:24:45.420
Can they do it?
1144
00:24:45.440 --> 00:24:46.600
It's not gonna be easy,
1145
00:24:46.800 --> 00:24:48.950
but they are at least doing what is required of
1146
00:24:48.950 --> 00:24:51.070
them to win in some of these states like Texas.
1147
00:24:51.500 --> 00:24:51.610
Uh,
1148
00:24:51.820 --> 00:24:53.410
that's a very positive thing,
1149
00:24:53.660 --> 00:24:53.720
uh,
1150
00:24:53.900 --> 00:24:56.000
that is going on if you happen to be a conservative,
1151
00:24:56.140 --> 00:24:57.330
if you happen to be a liberal and you're like,
1152
00:24:57.380 --> 00:24:57.450
oh,
1153
00:24:57.500 --> 00:24:58.480
I want Democrats to win,
1154
00:24:58.700 --> 00:24:58.910
well,
1155
00:24:59.140 --> 00:25:00.170
I'd be a little scared.
1156
00:25:00.380 --> 00:25:01.880
I'd be a little intimidated by this.
1157
00:25:01.940 --> 00:25:02.640
I'd be a little,
1158
00:25:02.770 --> 00:25:02.850
uh,
1159
00:25:02.940 --> 00:25:03.980
a little worried
1160
00:25:04.210 --> 00:25:06.850
that Republicans are going to push hard enough to
1161
00:25:06.850 --> 00:25:08.290
get some of these candidates across the line,
1162
00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:11.390
but I don't think that's happening in Georgia or North Carolina.
1163
00:25:11.580 --> 00:25:11.940
And
1164
00:25:12.070 --> 00:25:13.600
it comes down to the point where you gotta make
1165
00:25:13.700 --> 00:25:14.640
tough decisions
1166
00:25:14.940 --> 00:25:15.200
and,
1167
00:25:15.300 --> 00:25:15.770
and say,
1168
00:25:15.930 --> 00:25:18.410
where can these resources be applied best.
1169
00:25:18.960 --> 00:25:20.780
And you better pick the right states because
1170
00:25:20.800 --> 00:25:23.220
these are gonna be some really close races.
1171
00:25:23.480 --> 00:25:23.980
I've got,
1172
00:25:24.120 --> 00:25:24.590
um,
1173
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:26.030
a candidate of the day.
1174
00:25:26.100 --> 00:25:28.420
We do this sort of thing called candidate countdown where
1175
00:25:28.520 --> 00:25:29.950
every day I give you a race I kinda like.
1176
00:25:30.040 --> 00:25:30.540
This one
1177
00:25:30.760 --> 00:25:32.140
is actually like the newest
1178
00:25:32.280 --> 00:25:33.640
race and only some of the,
1179
00:25:33.720 --> 00:25:35.020
even the premium subscribers
1180
00:25:35.200 --> 00:25:36.070
have seen some of this,
1181
00:25:36.120 --> 00:25:36.420
but
1182
00:25:36.640 --> 00:25:38.030
I'm coming to a conclusion in one,
1183
00:25:38.360 --> 00:25:41.300
really key state and I wanna let you in on that coming up
1184
00:25:41.520 --> 00:25:41.910
next.
1185
00:26:02.500 --> 00:26:02.690
You know,
1186
00:26:02.820 --> 00:26:03.530
I was just talking,
1187
00:26:03.580 --> 00:26:04.040
I was just,
1188
00:26:04.220 --> 00:26:04.370
you know,
1189
00:26:04.460 --> 00:26:07.360
berating Republicans and you gotta make some tough choices.
1190
00:26:07.820 --> 00:26:10.690
And then I realized that there were tough choices I needed to make too.
1191
00:26:11.970 --> 00:26:16.010
And I realized this last week when we were doing a particular show
1192
00:26:16.310 --> 00:26:17.950
when I was breaking down the Senate,
1193
00:26:18.350 --> 00:26:18.460
uh,
1194
00:26:18.590 --> 00:26:20.540
doing like the Senate board for the first time.
1195
00:26:20.630 --> 00:26:22.100
We have a Senate board that we kind of do out there.
1196
00:26:22.150 --> 00:26:23.860
I used to do chalkboards with it all the time.
1197
00:26:24.070 --> 00:26:24.530
We would have,
1198
00:26:24.670 --> 00:26:24.870
uh,
1199
00:26:25.030 --> 00:26:25.220
you know,
1200
00:26:25.310 --> 00:26:26.650
a little magnets and everything,
1201
00:26:26.670 --> 00:26:27.740
and I would move the states around.
1202
00:26:27.870 --> 00:26:27.980
Oh,
1203
00:26:28.030 --> 00:26:29.280
this is a likely Republican state.
1204
00:26:29.310 --> 00:26:29.850
This is a,
1205
00:26:29.990 --> 00:26:31.340
a lean Democrat state,
1206
00:26:31.390 --> 00:26:31.980
all that stuff.
1207
00:26:32.580 --> 00:26:35.010
And I was doing it for the first time this year and it's like it's just
1208
00:26:35.010 --> 00:26:36.730
a different way to organize the same information
1209
00:26:36.730 --> 00:26:38.090
I've been thinking about for a while.
1210
00:26:38.910 --> 00:26:39.360
And it,
1211
00:26:39.510 --> 00:26:40.710
it's kind of a gut check,
1212
00:26:40.950 --> 00:26:41.140
right?
1213
00:26:41.270 --> 00:26:41.660
It put,
1214
00:26:41.750 --> 00:26:44.480
it makes you lock these things into a position
1215
00:26:44.870 --> 00:26:46.370
and make you
1216
00:26:46.740 --> 00:26:47.580
make a decision,
1217
00:26:47.870 --> 00:26:48.700
at least a little bit.
1218
00:26:48.750 --> 00:26:51.500
I try to keep everything out of toss-up as much as I can for that reason.
1219
00:26:51.810 --> 00:26:52.250
Um,
1220
00:26:52.590 --> 00:26:53.850
we decided after I did it,
1221
00:26:53.870 --> 00:26:54.090
I was like,
1222
00:26:54.110 --> 00:26:54.260
you know,
1223
00:26:54.310 --> 00:26:57.140
we should have this available for people to be able to kind of do on their own.
1224
00:26:57.350 --> 00:26:59.020
So we put this up at predictableShow.com.
1225
00:26:59.110 --> 00:26:59.940
At predictableShow.com,
1226
00:26:59.990 --> 00:27:00.770
if you click on,
1227
00:27:01.030 --> 00:27:01.100
uh,
1228
00:27:01.150 --> 00:27:01.700
midterms,
1229
00:27:01.740 --> 00:27:03.330
there's a tab at the top that says midterms.
1230
00:27:03.490 --> 00:27:05.300
There's one that says the Senate board or something like that.
1231
00:27:05.390 --> 00:27:06.100
This is what it looks like.
1232
00:27:06.510 --> 00:27:07.900
And this gives you my Senate board,
1233
00:27:07.950 --> 00:27:08.300
what I,
1234
00:27:08.430 --> 00:27:08.620
what I,
1235
00:27:08.710 --> 00:27:09.700
where I put these things.
1236
00:27:09.950 --> 00:27:10.420
Solid
1237
00:27:10.550 --> 00:27:10.730
Democrat,
1238
00:27:10.880 --> 00:27:11.500
likely Democrat,
1239
00:27:11.590 --> 00:27:12.140
lean Democrat,
1240
00:27:12.230 --> 00:27:12.580
toss-up,
1241
00:27:12.630 --> 00:27:13.340
lean Republican,
1242
00:27:13.470 --> 00:27:14.100
likely Republican,
1243
00:27:14.230 --> 00:27:14.980
solid Republican.
1244
00:27:15.140 --> 00:27:16.420
It gives you a breakdown of the board.
1245
00:27:16.750 --> 00:27:17.980
And this is where I actually landed,
1246
00:27:18.070 --> 00:27:20.330
which was 49-49 with two toss-ups.
1247
00:27:20.630 --> 00:27:20.980
Um,
1248
00:27:21.230 --> 00:27:23.880
so I really think it's basically 50/50 race right now.
1249
00:27:24.310 --> 00:27:24.660
By the end,
1250
00:27:24.710 --> 00:27:26.060
I'll have an idea of who I think is,
1251
00:27:26.150 --> 00:27:26.900
is going to win,
1252
00:27:26.990 --> 00:27:27.260
but you know,
1253
00:27:27.310 --> 00:27:28.680
we're still a couple of months early.
1254
00:27:29.580 --> 00:27:31.760
And we put this together so you could do this too.
1255
00:27:31.930 --> 00:27:32.150
Adam,
1256
00:27:32.170 --> 00:27:32.600
if you just,
1257
00:27:32.970 --> 00:27:34.150
you see a little couple of boxes there,
1258
00:27:34.170 --> 00:27:35.720
it says Stu's board and your board.
1259
00:27:35.810 --> 00:27:37.130
If you click on your board
1260
00:27:37.290 --> 00:27:38.540
there and light that up,
1261
00:27:38.690 --> 00:27:38.800
yeah,
1262
00:27:38.950 --> 00:27:39.670
now you can see that.
1263
00:27:39.690 --> 00:27:39.990
And
1264
00:27:40.170 --> 00:27:41.190
what you can do is like,
1265
00:27:41.330 --> 00:27:42.910
look at these races
1266
00:27:43.210 --> 00:27:44.620
and click on one of them and,
1267
00:27:44.650 --> 00:27:44.770
and,
1268
00:27:44.850 --> 00:27:46.120
and move it to a different column,
1269
00:27:46.140 --> 00:27:46.640
and it will,
1270
00:27:46.690 --> 00:27:49.300
it will just calculate for you what your board looks like.
1271
00:27:49.490 --> 00:27:50.850
I wanna come back to this in a second
1272
00:27:51.130 --> 00:27:52.710
after we do our candidate countdown and,
1273
00:27:52.730 --> 00:27:54.340
and what the reason why.
1274
00:27:54.970 --> 00:27:55.080
Uh,
1275
00:27:55.290 --> 00:27:56.390
this kind of struck
1276
00:27:56.840 --> 00:27:57.360
me this candidate,
1277
00:27:57.410 --> 00:27:59.270
and this is one of those things that honestly like
1278
00:27:59.450 --> 00:28:01.240
we have a predictable show.com premium tier.
1279
00:28:01.260 --> 00:28:01.920
I put all my,
1280
00:28:02.060 --> 00:28:02.080
uh,
1281
00:28:02.290 --> 00:28:02.910
picks up there.
1282
00:28:03.130 --> 00:28:05.190
This one I added actually after
1283
00:28:05.610 --> 00:28:06.600
the last update.
1284
00:28:06.850 --> 00:28:07.850
So you're getting this really,
1285
00:28:07.910 --> 00:28:08.250
really early.
1286
00:28:08.330 --> 00:28:09.070
Only the people on the,
1287
00:28:09.090 --> 00:28:09.170
uh,
1288
00:28:09.250 --> 00:28:10.090
initial stream,
1289
00:28:10.170 --> 00:28:13.450
we have a live stream of the taping of this broadcast every single
1290
00:28:13.810 --> 00:28:16.640
day that we're in the studio at predictableShow.com for premium members.
1291
00:28:16.690 --> 00:28:17.990
They're the only ones really seeing this early,
1292
00:28:18.010 --> 00:28:18.400
and
1293
00:28:18.530 --> 00:28:20.560
I started building this position kind of over the weekend.
1294
00:28:21.520 --> 00:28:21.950
And it's what I,
1295
00:28:22.040 --> 00:28:23.460
I feel pretty uncomfortable about,
1296
00:28:23.600 --> 00:28:23.750
uh,
1297
00:28:23.880 --> 00:28:24.100
but,
1298
00:28:24.360 --> 00:28:24.830
uh,
1299
00:28:25.080 --> 00:28:25.310
you know,
1300
00:28:25.420 --> 00:28:26.660
I wanna give you different
1301
00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:27.990
versions of,
1302
00:28:28.200 --> 00:28:28.590
of,
1303
00:28:28.720 --> 00:28:30.390
of what you could do in prediction markets.
1304
00:28:30.520 --> 00:28:31.020
Some
1305
00:28:31.320 --> 00:28:32.730
are very small profit percentages,
1306
00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:34.110
maybe 9 or 10%
1307
00:28:34.240 --> 00:28:35.700
that I think are almost a lock,
1308
00:28:35.940 --> 00:28:36.110
right?
1309
00:28:36.240 --> 00:28:37.940
Some are 20 to 30%,
1310
00:28:38.200 --> 00:28:38.270
uh,
1311
00:28:38.360 --> 00:28:38.750
where I'm like,
1312
00:28:38.800 --> 00:28:39.030
wow,
1313
00:28:39.080 --> 00:28:40.350
I'm really excited about this.
1314
00:28:41.120 --> 00:28:41.190
Uh,
1315
00:28:41.280 --> 00:28:43.530
and I think it's a really good position to take.
1316
00:28:43.840 --> 00:28:45.710
Some of them are kind of high-risk,
1317
00:28:45.800 --> 00:28:46.950
high reward type positions,
1318
00:28:47.000 --> 00:28:48.790
and this one falls into that category,
1319
00:28:49.160 --> 00:28:51.380
but I think the value is there right now
1320
00:28:51.560 --> 00:28:52.590
for a candidate of the day,
1321
00:28:52.640 --> 00:28:54.820
43 days until the midterms,
1322
00:28:55.200 --> 00:28:55.390
uh,
1323
00:28:55.600 --> 00:28:59.460
and our candidate countdown candidate of the day is
1324
00:28:59.960 --> 00:29:00.980
Sherrod Brown
1325
00:29:01.120 --> 00:29:02.260
in Ohio,
1326
00:29:02.560 --> 00:29:04.820
the Democrat who is running there with,
1327
00:29:05.600 --> 00:29:05.830
I don't know,
1328
00:29:05.880 --> 00:29:06.630
what do you think of that hair?
1329
00:29:06.720 --> 00:29:07.710
What do you guys think of that hair?
1330
00:29:08.360 --> 00:29:08.590
I'm not,
1331
00:29:08.680 --> 00:29:09.320
I feel uncomfortable.
1332
00:29:09.360 --> 00:29:10.350
It makes me uncomfortable.
1333
00:29:10.780 --> 00:29:11.600
Sherrod Brown's hair.
1334
00:29:11.990 --> 00:29:13.280
I'm just saying that right now.
1335
00:29:13.520 --> 00:29:14.470
He's a union guy.
1336
00:29:14.520 --> 00:29:18.200
He's a hardworking union guy and honestly a guy who was senator
1337
00:29:18.360 --> 00:29:19.620
in Ohio for a long time,
1338
00:29:19.760 --> 00:29:20.650
and then lost
1339
00:29:20.880 --> 00:29:23.680
in uh in uh 2024
1340
00:29:23.960 --> 00:29:25.020
and is running again
1341
00:29:25.280 --> 00:29:27.430
in a much more favorable climate.
1342
00:29:29.060 --> 00:29:29.840
Ohio knows him.
1343
00:29:30.360 --> 00:29:32.550
Ohio is used to him being their senator,
1344
00:29:32.760 --> 00:29:37.150
and this is a real threat to Republicans in a state that I was very hesitant
1345
00:29:37.440 --> 00:29:39.800
to pick a Democrat in because really this is not,
1346
00:29:39.920 --> 00:29:41.230
this is not the Republican,
1347
00:29:41.360 --> 00:29:43.470
this is not the state of Ohio from 2004.
1348
00:29:43.640 --> 00:29:45.990
2004 was the closest election.
1349
00:29:46.470 --> 00:29:46.570
Uh,
1350
00:29:46.660 --> 00:29:48.770
in the entire country for the presidency,
1351
00:29:49.040 --> 00:29:50.570
John Kerry lost by a few votes,
1352
00:29:50.590 --> 00:29:50.940
and it was,
1353
00:29:51.060 --> 00:29:52.290
it was his big complaint.
1354
00:29:52.340 --> 00:29:55.060
He's even blamed this on all sorts of shenanigans that happened there.
1355
00:29:55.220 --> 00:29:58.300
This is when the election used to get stolen by Republicans.
1356
00:29:58.420 --> 00:29:59.650
Remember those days?
1357
00:29:59.900 --> 00:30:00.210
Yes,
1358
00:30:00.420 --> 00:30:00.930
back then,
1359
00:30:01.140 --> 00:30:02.530
Republicans were stealing all the elections.
1360
00:30:02.660 --> 00:30:04.440
Now Democrats are stealing all the elections,
1361
00:30:04.620 --> 00:30:05.850
and every time that happens,
1362
00:30:05.900 --> 00:30:06.570
the other side says,
1363
00:30:06.620 --> 00:30:09.650
I can't believe they're possibly saying that election was stolen.
1364
00:30:09.990 --> 00:30:10.000
Uh,
1365
00:30:10.140 --> 00:30:11.300
but they all do it when they lose.
1366
00:30:11.420 --> 00:30:11.610
That's,
1367
00:30:11.700 --> 00:30:12.480
this is what they do.
1368
00:30:13.020 --> 00:30:14.810
Here are the polls in this election right now,
1369
00:30:14.900 --> 00:30:16.890
and you'll see a lot of blue in that column.
1370
00:30:16.940 --> 00:30:18.210
This is from the New York Times,
1371
00:30:18.380 --> 00:30:19.510
Brown + 8,
1372
00:30:19.700 --> 00:30:20.530
Brown + 4,
1373
00:30:20.670 --> 00:30:21.490
Brown + 5,
1374
00:30:21.620 --> 00:30:22.370
Brown + 5,
1375
00:30:22.510 --> 00:30:23.450
Brown + 3,
1376
00:30:23.620 --> 00:30:24.530
Brown + 4.
1377
00:30:24.620 --> 00:30:24.980
This
1378
00:30:25.130 --> 00:30:25.840
is not
1379
00:30:26.020 --> 00:30:26.910
a blowout
1380
00:30:27.140 --> 00:30:27.680
election,
1381
00:30:27.900 --> 00:30:30.530
and Husted can still win this election.
1382
00:30:31.520 --> 00:30:32.340
However,
1383
00:30:32.680 --> 00:30:34.620
I think where the markets are,
1384
00:30:35.200 --> 00:30:36.430
are a little bit out of whack.
1385
00:30:36.520 --> 00:30:36.620
Now,
1386
00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:37.580
I will give you this,
1387
00:30:37.890 --> 00:30:38.190
um,
1388
00:30:38.370 --> 00:30:44.050
Brown is getting hit pretty hard with part of one of the beams from the death ray.
1389
00:30:44.440 --> 00:30:44.550
Uh,
1390
00:30:44.680 --> 00:30:46.720
he is a big anti-crypto guy.
1391
00:30:46.800 --> 00:30:48.820
There's a lot of money in crypto lobbying.
1392
00:30:50.140 --> 00:30:50.680
Right now,
1393
00:30:50.770 --> 00:30:52.980
it seems like they're gonna blow the Clarity Act,
1394
00:30:53.100 --> 00:30:53.160
uh,
1395
00:30:53.260 --> 00:30:54.970
which is a huge part of the crypto.
1396
00:30:55.100 --> 00:30:56.480
The reason why they spent all this money
1397
00:30:56.660 --> 00:30:58.040
to get people elected,
1398
00:30:58.220 --> 00:30:58.330
uh,
1399
00:30:58.420 --> 00:31:00.770
was to try to get something like the Clarity Act through,
1400
00:31:00.820 --> 00:31:02.830
which isn't universally positive
1401
00:31:03.060 --> 00:31:03.930
for the crypto industry,
1402
00:31:04.020 --> 00:31:07.360
but is a good step for them and that they have real rules
1403
00:31:07.660 --> 00:31:08.650
around crypto.
1404
00:31:08.860 --> 00:31:09.090
Um,
1405
00:31:09.380 --> 00:31:11.050
that was just kind of voted down recently.
1406
00:31:11.670 --> 00:31:13.420
I think they will take another shot at this.
1407
00:31:13.510 --> 00:31:14.110
I do have a,
1408
00:31:14.130 --> 00:31:14.940
a small position,
1409
00:31:14.990 --> 00:31:15.770
I believe it is,
1410
00:31:15.990 --> 00:31:19.340
on the Clarity Act passing this year because it is their last opportunity.
1411
00:31:19.460 --> 00:31:20.210
They're gonna probably,
1412
00:31:20.470 --> 00:31:21.650
Republicans are gonna lose the House
1413
00:31:21.790 --> 00:31:23.810
and probably every opportunity goes away
1414
00:31:24.030 --> 00:31:24.340
for this.
1415
00:31:24.470 --> 00:31:24.790
So they,
1416
00:31:24.910 --> 00:31:26.450
I think if they have any chance
1417
00:31:26.710 --> 00:31:27.670
of getting this through,
1418
00:31:27.910 --> 00:31:31.370
the best chance for it is somehow between November and January.
1419
00:31:31.630 --> 00:31:32.370
That being said,
1420
00:31:33.040 --> 00:31:36.360
The crypto industry is aiming to crush one of Democrats' top Senate candidates.
1421
00:31:36.430 --> 00:31:39.150
They've spent $30 million or spending $30 million
1422
00:31:39.470 --> 00:31:40.540
against Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
1423
00:31:40.590 --> 00:31:41.800
So money is flowing in
1424
00:31:42.110 --> 00:31:43.550
on the Republican side there.
1425
00:31:43.950 --> 00:31:45.310
This is what that market looks like,
1426
00:31:45.470 --> 00:31:46.020
however,
1427
00:31:46.190 --> 00:31:46.320
um,
1428
00:31:46.430 --> 00:31:48.060
and it is a market that has now,
1429
00:31:48.110 --> 00:31:50.910
is now moved to the point where it's favoring Sherrod Brown.
1430
00:31:51.190 --> 00:31:51.340
Um,
1431
00:31:51.490 --> 00:31:51.980
it is actually,
1432
00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:52.500
jeez,
1433
00:31:52.550 --> 00:31:54.360
it's shooting way up since I
1434
00:31:54.550 --> 00:31:55.970
just the past few days.
1435
00:31:56.510 --> 00:31:56.940
Wow,
1436
00:31:57.150 --> 00:31:59.620
Sherrod Brown is up to 62%.
1437
00:31:59.750 --> 00:32:00.730
0 my goodness.
1438
00:32:01.540 --> 00:32:03.090
I'd like to take credit for that movement,
1439
00:32:03.380 --> 00:32:03.470
uh,
1440
00:32:03.620 --> 00:32:03.800
but,
1441
00:32:03.860 --> 00:32:03.970
uh,
1442
00:32:04.060 --> 00:32:05.280
I don't think anyone knew
1443
00:32:05.420 --> 00:32:06.410
that I'd taken that position yet.
1444
00:32:06.500 --> 00:32:06.650
Anyway,
1445
00:32:06.700 --> 00:32:09.100
zoom into the last like month or so
1446
00:32:09.500 --> 00:32:10.050
on this market,
1447
00:32:10.140 --> 00:32:10.370
Adam.
1448
00:32:10.420 --> 00:32:11.620
You see a real shooting up.
1449
00:32:11.700 --> 00:32:11.930
I,
1450
00:32:12.060 --> 00:32:12.210
I,
1451
00:32:12.300 --> 00:32:13.550
I thought this was a real,
1452
00:32:13.900 --> 00:32:16.130
I really liked this around a 50/50 chance.
1453
00:32:16.150 --> 00:32:17.460
It's getting up to in the 60s.
1454
00:32:17.630 --> 00:32:18.690
We're getting closer
1455
00:32:18.950 --> 00:32:19.690
to real value,
1456
00:32:19.740 --> 00:32:20.330
I think.
1457
00:32:21.440 --> 00:32:21.590
You know,
1458
00:32:21.640 --> 00:32:21.750
I,
1459
00:32:21.880 --> 00:32:24.830
in my head I thought Sherrod Brown was 65-70% to win
1460
00:32:24.830 --> 00:32:27.220
this race when I really was looking and crunching the numbers.
1461
00:32:28.030 --> 00:32:29.600
If it was just another Democrat,
1462
00:32:29.670 --> 00:32:31.460
I think this would be much closer to fifty-fifty,
1463
00:32:31.550 --> 00:32:32.470
but Sherrod Brown is,
1464
00:32:32.490 --> 00:32:34.610
is relatively well liked in the state.
1465
00:32:34.750 --> 00:32:37.270
His polling is relatively positive in the state,
1466
00:32:37.590 --> 00:32:40.490
and we've gone through a long period here where there hasn't been any poll
1467
00:32:40.630 --> 00:32:41.740
where Republicans are leading.
1468
00:32:41.830 --> 00:32:42.160
Now look,
1469
00:32:42.270 --> 00:32:44.260
Ohio is still a reddish state,
1470
00:32:44.590 --> 00:32:46.750
and I think Houston has a real chance here.
1471
00:32:46.830 --> 00:32:47.380
In fact,
1472
00:32:48.290 --> 00:32:48.930
I,
1473
00:32:49.230 --> 00:32:49.440
you know,
1474
00:32:49.610 --> 00:32:50.720
a couple of months ago,
1475
00:32:50.890 --> 00:32:52.710
this was a race I was looking for
1476
00:32:52.890 --> 00:32:53.240
to put,
1477
00:32:53.410 --> 00:32:53.560
uh,
1478
00:32:53.690 --> 00:32:54.610
go the other way on,
1479
00:32:54.850 --> 00:32:55.000
uh,
1480
00:32:55.170 --> 00:32:55.470
taking,
1481
00:32:55.650 --> 00:32:55.920
um,
1482
00:32:56.250 --> 00:32:56.510
Houston.
1483
00:32:56.610 --> 00:32:56.720
I,
1484
00:32:56.770 --> 00:32:58.580
I thought this would be the type of state
1485
00:32:58.890 --> 00:32:59.230
where,
1486
00:32:59.410 --> 00:32:59.910
um,
1487
00:33:00.330 --> 00:33:02.950
Housted would hold this for the Republicans.
1488
00:33:03.130 --> 00:33:06.570
I'm now really concerned about that from the Republican perspective.
1489
00:33:06.850 --> 00:33:08.970
And right now I think Sherrod Brown is the favorite
1490
00:33:09.170 --> 00:33:10.070
in that race.
1491
00:33:10.460 --> 00:33:10.990
Um,
1492
00:33:11.490 --> 00:33:12.070
I,
1493
00:33:12.290 --> 00:33:15.670
it was kind of the gut check moment I had when putting that Senate board together.
1494
00:33:16.510 --> 00:33:18.600
Because I wound up putting it in the lean Democratic,
1495
00:33:18.840 --> 00:33:20.010
go back to the Senate board if you could,
1496
00:33:20.510 --> 00:33:22.650
I wound up putting this in the lean Democratic column.
1497
00:33:23.010 --> 00:33:23.570
And I,
1498
00:33:23.690 --> 00:33:24.400
I said that and I was like,
1499
00:33:24.470 --> 00:33:24.520
well,
1500
00:33:24.610 --> 00:33:24.920
wait a minute,
1501
00:33:24.970 --> 00:33:26.950
if I think this is a lean Democrat state,
1502
00:33:27.460 --> 00:33:28.440
what do I think this number is?
1503
00:33:28.500 --> 00:33:30.230
And I kind of went back and forth
1504
00:33:30.730 --> 00:33:31.270
and,
1505
00:33:31.430 --> 00:33:31.800
uh,
1506
00:33:32.050 --> 00:33:32.160
on,
1507
00:33:32.250 --> 00:33:33.830
on my own sort of
1508
00:33:34.000 --> 00:33:34.730
assumptions.
1509
00:33:35.490 --> 00:33:36.240
And realized,
1510
00:33:36.490 --> 00:33:36.540
uh,
1511
00:33:36.810 --> 00:33:38.360
I don't know if this is a toss-up state.
1512
00:33:38.420 --> 00:33:39.640
I think it is a lean Democrat.
1513
00:33:39.690 --> 00:33:40.930
And if it's a lean Democrat,
1514
00:33:41.170 --> 00:33:44.190
there's probably value at 52 and 53 cents
1515
00:33:44.530 --> 00:33:45.800
for Sherrod Brown.
1516
00:33:46.170 --> 00:33:47.120
Now it's 62,
1517
00:33:47.210 --> 00:33:48.560
I think there's less value,
1518
00:33:48.690 --> 00:33:49.990
and that's just happened in the last,
1519
00:33:50.060 --> 00:33:50.260
I mean,
1520
00:33:50.370 --> 00:33:50.600
gosh,
1521
00:33:51.010 --> 00:33:51.360
24,
1522
00:33:51.410 --> 00:33:52.000
48 hours.
1523
00:33:52.090 --> 00:33:52.200
I mean,
1524
00:33:52.250 --> 00:33:52.830
this is really,
1525
00:33:52.850 --> 00:33:54.640
ever since I decided I wanted to do this segment,
1526
00:33:54.690 --> 00:33:55.660
that's where this has gone.
1527
00:33:56.030 --> 00:33:56.470
Now,
1528
00:33:56.810 --> 00:33:58.070
I think there's value there,
1529
00:33:58.250 --> 00:33:58.480
um,
1530
00:33:58.690 --> 00:34:01.680
and I think it's one of those cause I wanna give you some that aren't just 91,
1531
00:34:01.770 --> 00:34:03.080
92% type things.
1532
00:34:03.170 --> 00:34:04.580
I wanna make sure you're getting some.
1533
00:34:05.520 --> 00:34:06.750
Situations where there's value.
1534
00:34:06.920 --> 00:34:08.210
I am not at all
1535
00:34:08.320 --> 00:34:10.580
guaranteeing Sherrod Brown wins here.
1536
00:34:10.719 --> 00:34:11.920
I don't think this is a sure thing,
1537
00:34:12.000 --> 00:34:13.340
even in the perspective of,
1538
00:34:13.639 --> 00:34:13.909
uh,
1539
00:34:14.120 --> 00:34:14.270
you know,
1540
00:34:14.440 --> 00:34:15.150
our First Amendment,
1541
00:34:15.239 --> 00:34:15.949
which is a sure thing,
1542
00:34:16.040 --> 00:34:17.060
always has air quotes.
1543
00:34:17.400 --> 00:34:17.469
I,
1544
00:34:17.560 --> 00:34:17.630
I,
1545
00:34:17.719 --> 00:34:18.139
I don't,
1546
00:34:18.239 --> 00:34:20.070
I don't necessarily think it's that type of election.
1547
00:34:20.139 --> 00:34:21.830
I think there's still a close election.
1548
00:34:22.179 --> 00:34:23.679
But I do think Sherrod Brown's the favorite.
1549
00:34:23.880 --> 00:34:24.600
I do think
1550
00:34:24.780 --> 00:34:25.800
that in this environment,
1551
00:34:25.900 --> 00:34:26.199
he's,
1552
00:34:26.380 --> 00:34:26.760
he is,
1553
00:34:26.860 --> 00:34:27.150
uh,
1554
00:34:27.460 --> 00:34:28.530
a likely winner,
1555
00:34:28.659 --> 00:34:28.679
uh,
1556
00:34:28.820 --> 00:34:28.900
here,
1557
00:34:28.980 --> 00:34:30.150
or at least a lean winner,
1558
00:34:30.460 --> 00:34:30.489
uh,
1559
00:34:30.620 --> 00:34:30.889
here.
1560
00:34:31.050 --> 00:34:31.130
Now,
1561
00:34:31.219 --> 00:34:31.690
if you go,
1562
00:34:31.860 --> 00:34:31.929
uh,
1563
00:34:32.100 --> 00:34:33.409
just to show you how the Senate board works,
1564
00:34:33.500 --> 00:34:33.530
uh,
1565
00:34:33.630 --> 00:34:33.810
Adam,
1566
00:34:33.860 --> 00:34:34.860
if you click on Ohio,
1567
00:34:35.060 --> 00:34:36.250
you see that in the lean Democrat,
1568
00:34:36.469 --> 00:34:36.610
um,
1569
00:34:36.699 --> 00:34:38.360
it will bring up a little box and it says,
1570
00:34:38.650 --> 00:34:39.409
what's your rating?
1571
00:34:39.610 --> 00:34:40.670
Stu has it as lean D.
1572
00:34:40.860 --> 00:34:41.489
What do you think?
1573
00:34:41.690 --> 00:34:42.969
Make that a lean R instead.
1574
00:34:43.360 --> 00:34:43.550
Um,
1575
00:34:43.639 --> 00:34:44.770
you change that to lean R and,
1576
00:34:44.880 --> 00:34:46.570
and then you can do update your board,
1577
00:34:46.800 --> 00:34:48.350
and then go back up to the top and you'll see how,
1578
00:34:48.480 --> 00:34:49.670
how is it updated for you.
1579
00:34:49.800 --> 00:34:51.300
Now Republicans are at 50,
1580
00:34:51.679 --> 00:34:52.310
Democrats at 48.
1581
00:34:52.409 --> 00:34:52.830
You can shake,
1582
00:34:52.960 --> 00:34:55.020
take this and move these columns around
1583
00:34:55.280 --> 00:34:56.360
any way that you like.
1584
00:34:56.800 --> 00:34:58.590
And we're gonna update this with even more features,
1585
00:34:58.700 --> 00:35:00.410
but this is kind of just the starting board.
1586
00:35:00.800 --> 00:35:01.540
Move these around,
1587
00:35:02.040 --> 00:35:02.970
play with us a little bit,
1588
00:35:03.120 --> 00:35:04.420
and you can kind of play with
1589
00:35:04.560 --> 00:35:05.190
the control.
1590
00:35:05.320 --> 00:35:06.650
You can play God,
1591
00:35:06.880 --> 00:35:07.390
don't play God,
1592
00:35:07.480 --> 00:35:08.860
but you can kind of play God
1593
00:35:09.000 --> 00:35:11.500
with the Senate board to see where these things will go,
1594
00:35:11.720 --> 00:35:13.020
if your opinion holds up.
1595
00:35:13.040 --> 00:35:13.420
And
1596
00:35:13.640 --> 00:35:13.870
look,
1597
00:35:14.000 --> 00:35:14.430
you might say,
1598
00:35:14.480 --> 00:35:14.630
hey,
1599
00:35:15.040 --> 00:35:15.310
wait a minute,
1600
00:35:15.330 --> 00:35:16.950
you're a big Sherrod Brown fan all the time,
1601
00:35:17.000 --> 00:35:17.390
all of a sudden,
1602
00:35:17.520 --> 00:35:17.590
no,
1603
00:35:17.680 --> 00:35:18.140
I'm not.
1604
00:35:19.000 --> 00:35:19.990
I gotta be honest with you.
1605
00:35:20.060 --> 00:35:21.890
I'll always be honest with you on this stuff.
1606
00:35:22.200 --> 00:35:22.270
Uh,
1607
00:35:22.360 --> 00:35:22.630
I'm not,
1608
00:35:22.680 --> 00:35:24.270
and I don't apologize for being a conservative.
1609
00:35:24.360 --> 00:35:25.870
I don't want Sherrod Brown to win that race.
1610
00:35:26.260 --> 00:35:28.360
I'm concerned about it in a big way,
1611
00:35:28.570 --> 00:35:28.720
um,
1612
00:35:28.850 --> 00:35:29.880
and I will say it's,
1613
00:35:29.930 --> 00:35:32.650
it's our 10th Amendment to the Constitution and it's probably,
1614
00:35:32.970 --> 00:35:33.160
uh,
1615
00:35:33.290 --> 00:35:35.170
in a way one of the most important ones,
1616
00:35:35.570 --> 00:35:36.530
which is
1617
00:35:36.650 --> 00:35:37.280
kind of the same thing,
1618
00:35:37.410 --> 00:35:37.680
by the way,
1619
00:35:37.730 --> 00:35:39.080
in our actual Constitution,
1620
00:35:39.130 --> 00:35:40.240
10th Amendment is pretty important,
1621
00:35:40.330 --> 00:35:41.310
we basically ignore it.
1622
00:35:41.450 --> 00:35:41.800
But it's,
1623
00:35:41.930 --> 00:35:43.310
it's one that I say all the time.
1624
00:35:43.570 --> 00:35:43.750
We,
1625
00:35:43.890 --> 00:35:44.150
uh,
1626
00:35:44.330 --> 00:35:45.430
we root for the world
1627
00:35:45.550 --> 00:35:46.280
that we want
1628
00:35:46.470 --> 00:35:48.210
and we invest in the world that we have.
1629
00:35:48.770 --> 00:35:50.190
Sometimes the world that we have sucks,
1630
00:35:50.290 --> 00:35:50.850
and it's not what you,
1631
00:35:50.970 --> 00:35:51.680
it's not what you want,
1632
00:35:51.770 --> 00:35:53.080
but if you can find a good investment.
1633
00:35:53.430 --> 00:35:55.660
At least your world can improve a little bit
1634
00:35:55.830 --> 00:35:57.930
as compared to what it would have been if you had lost money.
1635
00:35:58.310 --> 00:35:58.460
Um,
1636
00:35:58.590 --> 00:36:00.140
and this is another thing too where it's kind of nice,
1637
00:36:00.190 --> 00:36:00.740
I guess if you,
1638
00:36:00.830 --> 00:36:03.460
if you happen to be a person who's rooting for the Republican in that race,
1639
00:36:03.510 --> 00:36:04.190
if you lose,
1640
00:36:04.430 --> 00:36:06.050
you'll probably feel less bad about it,
1641
00:36:06.270 --> 00:36:06.680
uh,
1642
00:36:07.150 --> 00:36:08.510
if you lose some money on that race,
1643
00:36:08.950 --> 00:36:10.580
you can hedge your life a little bit there,
1644
00:36:10.830 --> 00:36:10.980
uh,
1645
00:36:11.190 --> 00:36:11.460
by,
1646
00:36:11.670 --> 00:36:11.820
uh,
1647
00:36:12.030 --> 00:36:13.130
by going that direction.
1648
00:36:13.360 --> 00:36:14.250
So that's what I have today.
1649
00:36:14.350 --> 00:36:14.590
Again,
1650
00:36:14.710 --> 00:36:14.820
you know,
1651
00:36:14.990 --> 00:36:15.380
Sherrod Brown,
1652
00:36:15.470 --> 00:36:16.170
if you think about this,
1653
00:36:16.310 --> 00:36:16.860
55,
1654
00:36:17.120 --> 00:36:17.130
uh,
1655
00:36:17.230 --> 00:36:18.610
it's 60 cents now,
1656
00:36:19.110 --> 00:36:20.130
but it's 60 cents
1657
00:36:20.250 --> 00:36:21.100
or 40%,
1658
00:36:21.310 --> 00:36:21.420
uh,
1659
00:36:21.510 --> 00:36:22.180
40 cents.
1660
00:36:22.650 --> 00:36:22.770
Uh,
1661
00:36:22.930 --> 00:36:23.760
is the profit on that.
1662
00:36:23.850 --> 00:36:24.090
So,
1663
00:36:24.210 --> 00:36:25.800
just in case you're new to prediction markets,
1664
00:36:25.850 --> 00:36:27.300
if you put 60 cents in
1665
00:36:27.490 --> 00:36:28.330
on an investment,
1666
00:36:28.570 --> 00:36:29.010
on a,
1667
00:36:29.090 --> 00:36:29.280
uh,
1668
00:36:29.410 --> 00:36:30.470
on a contract like that,
1669
00:36:30.730 --> 00:36:30.800
uh,
1670
00:36:30.900 --> 00:36:32.800
it will resolve if you are correct at $1.
1671
00:36:32.890 --> 00:36:34.190
So you'll get 40 cents
1672
00:36:34.410 --> 00:36:36.160
profit on each one of those contracts.
1673
00:36:36.250 --> 00:36:37.760
So for every 60 cents you invest,
1674
00:36:37.810 --> 00:36:38.880
you get a 40% profit.
1675
00:36:38.920 --> 00:36:41.040
That's a 67% profit margin.
1676
00:36:41.320 --> 00:36:42.440
I don't think you're gonna find that at a bank.
1677
00:36:42.530 --> 00:36:42.640
Now,
1678
00:36:42.690 --> 00:36:44.190
this is not basically banking.
1679
00:36:44.690 --> 00:36:44.910
Uh,
1680
00:36:45.170 --> 00:36:45.360
you know,
1681
00:36:45.610 --> 00:36:46.600
sometimes I'll give you these that are like,
1682
00:36:46.650 --> 00:36:48.430
09 and 10% profit margins.
1683
00:36:48.850 --> 00:36:49.190
Uh,
1684
00:36:49.410 --> 00:36:49.560
you know,
1685
00:36:49.710 --> 00:36:49.720
hey,
1686
00:36:49.810 --> 00:36:50.040
wow,
1687
00:36:50.090 --> 00:36:51.540
it's almost like uh money in the bank.
1688
00:36:51.810 --> 00:36:53.000
This is not almost like money in the bank.
1689
00:36:53.050 --> 00:36:53.840
This is a close race.
1690
00:36:53.910 --> 00:36:55.000
It could go either way,
1691
00:36:55.130 --> 00:36:56.400
but it's one you should know about.
1692
00:36:56.540 --> 00:36:58.280
If you're looking for a higher risk,
1693
00:36:58.610 --> 00:36:59.030
higher,
1694
00:36:59.170 --> 00:36:59.600
uh,
1695
00:36:59.810 --> 00:37:01.470
reward sort of platform,
1696
00:37:02.130 --> 00:37:04.430
Sherrod Brown in Ohio may very well
1697
00:37:04.560 --> 00:37:05.200
be for you.
1698
00:37:05.290 --> 00:37:05.880
All my picks,
1699
00:37:05.930 --> 00:37:07.040
over 300 of them
1700
00:37:07.210 --> 00:37:08.320
are up at predictable show.
1701
00:37:08.560 --> 00:37:10.070
Dot com for premium subscribers.
1702
00:37:10.120 --> 00:37:11.670
The Predictable posse is there.
1703
00:37:11.760 --> 00:37:13.670
They're talking about these picks on a day to day basis,
1704
00:37:13.840 --> 00:37:14.710
great chat room,
1705
00:37:14.930 --> 00:37:15.980
all sorts of great stuff
1706
00:37:16.230 --> 00:37:17.590
available with that subscription.
1707
00:37:17.760 --> 00:37:18.420
I'd encourage you,
1708
00:37:18.480 --> 00:37:20.020
if you are trading in these markets,
1709
00:37:20.160 --> 00:37:22.510
to go there and if you're looking to trade in these markets,
1710
00:37:22.950 --> 00:37:24.800
try predictable101.com.
1711
00:37:24.960 --> 00:37:28.260
This is gonna give you a crash course and everything that you need to know
1712
00:37:28.520 --> 00:37:29.750
to get into prediction markets,
1713
00:37:29.920 --> 00:37:30.900
to put your markets,
1714
00:37:31.150 --> 00:37:31.340
uh,
1715
00:37:31.520 --> 00:37:32.000
your money,
1716
00:37:32.040 --> 00:37:32.120
uh,
1717
00:37:32.240 --> 00:37:33.180
into these markets,
1718
00:37:33.200 --> 00:37:35.450
to understand what you're doing with it and not get burned.
1719
00:37:35.520 --> 00:37:36.080
Because look,
1720
00:37:36.550 --> 00:37:38.930
If you're looking for somebody who's made tons of mistakes
1721
00:37:39.070 --> 00:37:39.990
in prediction markets,
1722
00:37:40.130 --> 00:37:41.530
you're looking at the right person right now,
1723
00:37:41.770 --> 00:37:42.060
OK?
1724
00:37:42.280 --> 00:37:43.420
If you're listening on audio,
1725
00:37:43.750 --> 00:37:44.590
I don't know who you're looking at.
1726
00:37:44.710 --> 00:37:45.780
You could be looking at anybody.
1727
00:37:46.030 --> 00:37:47.650
But if you happen to be watching on video,
1728
00:37:47.830 --> 00:37:48.770
you're looking at me
1729
00:37:48.950 --> 00:37:50.540
and I'm the person who's made a lot of these mistakes.
1730
00:37:50.630 --> 00:37:52.580
That's why we have the predictable constitution and all these
1731
00:37:52.580 --> 00:37:54.900
other resources so that you don't make them as well.
1732
00:37:55.100 --> 00:37:58.950
We're trying to get you into the right spot to be profitable and have a wonderful
1733
00:37:59.230 --> 00:38:00.470
election season,
1734
00:38:00.950 --> 00:38:02.330
no matter what the result is.
1735
00:38:02.530 --> 00:38:03.140
Back in a second.
1736
00:38:17.480 --> 00:38:17.550
Well,
1737
00:38:17.640 --> 00:38:20.310
it's time for another edition of Here's One I Kinda like.
1738
00:38:20.360 --> 00:38:20.910
And it's a,
1739
00:38:20.960 --> 00:38:23.550
it's a segment that we started at the beginning of the show when I would say,
1740
00:38:23.600 --> 00:38:25.830
I'm gonna identify a market that we're talking about.
1741
00:38:26.240 --> 00:38:26.660
And uh,
1742
00:38:26.680 --> 00:38:27.790
and it's just one that I kinda like.
1743
00:38:27.880 --> 00:38:29.290
Not one I've deeply researched,
1744
00:38:29.400 --> 00:38:32.270
not necessarily one I've got a hardcore take on,
1745
00:38:32.320 --> 00:38:33.350
I'm going all in on,
1746
00:38:33.400 --> 00:38:34.030
not at all.
1747
00:38:34.240 --> 00:38:35.420
This is one I kinda like.
1748
00:38:35.840 --> 00:38:37.110
And it's worked pretty well,
1749
00:38:37.160 --> 00:38:37.430
actually.
1750
00:38:37.560 --> 00:38:38.940
We've done well in these markets.
1751
00:38:39.160 --> 00:38:39.910
I also will say,
1752
00:38:40.000 --> 00:38:40.270
I,
1753
00:38:40.440 --> 00:38:42.500
I don't know when is the last time I only gave you one of these,
1754
00:38:42.520 --> 00:38:43.220
cause every time I do a,
1755
00:38:43.240 --> 00:38:43.910
here's one I kinda like,
1756
00:38:43.960 --> 00:38:44.230
I give you,
1757
00:38:44.320 --> 00:38:45.460
here's 3 I kinda like,
1758
00:38:45.570 --> 00:38:46.780
or here's 5 I kinda like.
1759
00:38:46.960 --> 00:38:48.390
I've got a couple of them for you today.
1760
00:38:48.480 --> 00:38:50.700
And a couple of them I've actually discussed with you a little bit
1761
00:38:51.010 --> 00:38:51.230
before.
1762
00:38:51.320 --> 00:38:52.300
Breaking news
1763
00:38:52.470 --> 00:38:53.660
from Axios today.
1764
00:38:54.250 --> 00:38:56.150
Might be good for my standing here.
1765
00:38:56.370 --> 00:38:59.150
Many ex-aides to Kamala Harris are betting
1766
00:38:59.520 --> 00:39:00.850
against the 2028 run.
1767
00:39:01.090 --> 00:39:01.730
Betting,
1768
00:39:02.050 --> 00:39:02.400
now that's,
1769
00:39:02.490 --> 00:39:02.760
they're just,
1770
00:39:02.810 --> 00:39:03.570
that's again,
1771
00:39:03.810 --> 00:39:04.880
the way we use our language.
1772
00:39:04.970 --> 00:39:06.080
We say betting when you're,
1773
00:39:06.130 --> 00:39:06.560
they're,
1774
00:39:06.810 --> 00:39:08.120
they're making a prediction or a risk.
1775
00:39:08.190 --> 00:39:10.760
It's got nothing to do with whether it's an actual bet or wager,
1776
00:39:10.810 --> 00:39:12.510
which would be for many of these people
1777
00:39:12.680 --> 00:39:13.520
potentially illegal.
1778
00:39:13.940 --> 00:39:14.040
Uh,
1779
00:39:14.210 --> 00:39:14.370
don't,
1780
00:39:14.460 --> 00:39:15.380
don't be an insider trader,
1781
00:39:15.460 --> 00:39:15.930
boys and girls.
1782
00:39:15.980 --> 00:39:16.430
That's bad.
1783
00:39:16.700 --> 00:39:16.930
Be bad,
1784
00:39:17.020 --> 00:39:17.530
that's bad.
1785
00:39:17.740 --> 00:39:17.850
Um,
1786
00:39:17.940 --> 00:39:18.480
here's what,
1787
00:39:18.760 --> 00:39:19.400
now look,
1788
00:39:19.820 --> 00:39:21.030
how strong is this evidence?
1789
00:39:21.260 --> 00:39:24.120
The reason why I bring this one up is cause I did a segment with you last week
1790
00:39:24.340 --> 00:39:25.280
where I,
1791
00:39:25.340 --> 00:39:28.010
I played a piece of video from Gavin Newsom,
1792
00:39:28.220 --> 00:39:31.090
where he was just asked while he was fishing with Jake Tapper,
1793
00:39:31.140 --> 00:39:31.250
like,
1794
00:39:31.340 --> 00:39:32.410
are you gonna run for president?
1795
00:39:32.620 --> 00:39:32.930
He's like,
1796
00:39:33.060 --> 00:39:33.210
ah,
1797
00:39:33.380 --> 00:39:33.570
well,
1798
00:39:33.660 --> 00:39:35.160
I wouldn't run if Kamala runs.
1799
00:39:36.060 --> 00:39:36.330
Huh?
1800
00:39:36.540 --> 00:39:36.890
What do you mean?
1801
00:39:37.100 --> 00:39:38.440
Why wouldn't you run if Kamala runs?
1802
00:39:38.660 --> 00:39:38.770
Uh,
1803
00:39:38.940 --> 00:39:39.570
I wouldn't do that.
1804
00:39:39.620 --> 00:39:40.370
I wouldn't do that to them.
1805
00:39:40.420 --> 00:39:41.290
I wouldn't do that to you,
1806
00:39:41.420 --> 00:39:42.530
which is a really weird phrasing.
1807
00:39:42.610 --> 00:39:42.890
I don't know.
1808
00:39:42.950 --> 00:39:43.890
The guy's bizarre.
1809
00:39:43.980 --> 00:39:45.250
He's probably got a bunch of bodies,
1810
00:39:45.340 --> 00:39:45.450
you know,
1811
00:39:45.780 --> 00:39:46.890
carved up in his freezer.
1812
00:39:47.000 --> 00:39:47.230
So I mean,
1813
00:39:47.300 --> 00:39:47.370
I,
1814
00:39:47.460 --> 00:39:48.630
I don't know how people like that act.
1815
00:39:48.780 --> 00:39:49.120
But like,
1816
00:39:49.260 --> 00:39:50.520
what I thought out of that was,
1817
00:39:50.780 --> 00:39:52.330
he's gotta know Kamala's not.
1818
00:39:52.460 --> 00:39:52.840
Running
1819
00:39:53.060 --> 00:39:54.840
because he would not say that
1820
00:39:55.060 --> 00:39:56.210
and put himself out there like,
1821
00:39:56.340 --> 00:39:56.450
wait,
1822
00:39:56.540 --> 00:39:58.420
now you're not gonna run because Kamala's running?
1823
00:39:58.540 --> 00:40:00.410
Why create a news cycle where you have to say,
1824
00:40:00.500 --> 00:40:00.610
well,
1825
00:40:00.660 --> 00:40:01.610
I know I said that,
1826
00:40:01.760 --> 00:40:02.290
but
1827
00:40:02.460 --> 00:40:03.560
it doesn't make any sense.
1828
00:40:03.880 --> 00:40:04.050
Um,
1829
00:40:04.180 --> 00:40:06.810
and so either he's not gonna run or she's not gonna run,
1830
00:40:06.860 --> 00:40:08.410
and I don't believe at all that he's not running.
1831
00:40:08.500 --> 00:40:08.920
So,
1832
00:40:09.340 --> 00:40:10.170
I have a position in that.
1833
00:40:10.230 --> 00:40:10.290
Now,
1834
00:40:10.340 --> 00:40:13.100
I've had a no position on Kamala for a while running,
1835
00:40:13.380 --> 00:40:14.420
and my thought was,
1836
00:40:15.750 --> 00:40:17.420
Is she aware of her surroundings?
1837
00:40:17.470 --> 00:40:17.940
Like she's,
1838
00:40:18.190 --> 00:40:19.210
she was a terrible candidate,
1839
00:40:19.270 --> 00:40:20.260
it blew up in her face.
1840
00:40:20.350 --> 00:40:22.090
She lost to Adolf Hitler to them.
1841
00:40:22.280 --> 00:40:23.420
Why would they run her again?
1842
00:40:23.670 --> 00:40:24.180
I don't know.
1843
00:40:24.270 --> 00:40:24.420
I mean,
1844
00:40:24.470 --> 00:40:25.620
it doesn't make any sense to me.
1845
00:40:25.830 --> 00:40:26.230
Here's what,
1846
00:40:26.350 --> 00:40:26.670
uh,
1847
00:40:26.910 --> 00:40:27.660
what the aides are saying.
1848
00:40:27.750 --> 00:40:28.150
Here's their,
1849
00:40:28.270 --> 00:40:28.660
their argument.
1850
00:40:28.790 --> 00:40:29.620
They asked eight
1851
00:40:29.910 --> 00:40:31.010
close aides
1852
00:40:31.510 --> 00:40:32.610
and advisors,
1853
00:40:33.030 --> 00:40:33.260
um,
1854
00:40:33.510 --> 00:40:33.810
including,
1855
00:40:33.950 --> 00:40:34.140
uh,
1856
00:40:34.550 --> 00:40:37.730
some who worked at a senior level to get their most up to-date read.
1857
00:40:38.030 --> 00:40:38.100
Uh,
1858
00:40:38.230 --> 00:40:39.190
here's what their points were.
1859
00:40:39.350 --> 00:40:39.650
One,
1860
00:40:39.870 --> 00:40:41.870
she's only doing the bare bare minimum
1861
00:40:42.020 --> 00:40:43.900
to stay in the 2028 conversation.
1862
00:40:44.370 --> 00:40:44.870
2,
1863
00:40:45.060 --> 00:40:46.310
she's a rational actor.
1864
00:40:46.620 --> 00:40:47.800
I've got some notes on that one.
1865
00:40:47.940 --> 00:40:48.610
Not sure that's true,
1866
00:40:48.700 --> 00:40:49.730
but that's what they believe.
1867
00:40:49.900 --> 00:40:50.400
3,
1868
00:40:50.620 --> 00:40:51.730
the money might not be there.
1869
00:40:51.830 --> 00:40:51.930
Now,
1870
00:40:51.990 --> 00:40:54.130
Harris has always been a great fundraiser,
1871
00:40:54.260 --> 00:40:54.580
honestly,
1872
00:40:54.660 --> 00:40:55.840
like that's not me just being,
1873
00:40:55.940 --> 00:40:56.400
uh,
1874
00:40:56.420 --> 00:40:56.970
sarcastic.
1875
00:40:57.060 --> 00:40:57.750
She really has been.
1876
00:40:58.150 --> 00:40:58.260
Um,
1877
00:40:58.350 --> 00:40:59.100
and then 4,
1878
00:40:59.470 --> 00:41:00.740
she isn't an egomaniac.
1879
00:41:00.830 --> 00:41:00.940
Again,
1880
00:41:01.030 --> 00:41:02.540
I've got some notes on that 15,
1881
00:41:02.710 --> 00:41:04.860
some tea leaves suggest she's lukewarm on running,
1882
00:41:05.030 --> 00:41:05.480
including
1883
00:41:05.630 --> 00:41:07.570
she gave uh gave up control
1884
00:41:07.830 --> 00:41:10.160
of her Kamala HQ social media account
1885
00:41:10.310 --> 00:41:12.420
and bought an $8 million house in Malibu.
1886
00:41:12.760 --> 00:41:14.250
Kinda not necessarily the most
1887
00:41:14.730 --> 00:41:15.910
candidate-friendly thing to do.
1888
00:41:15.990 --> 00:41:16.530
Anyway,
1889
00:41:17.230 --> 00:41:19.740
the markets are starting to believe my terrible
1890
00:41:19.740 --> 00:41:21.340
position that I took a while ago and was
1891
00:41:21.340 --> 00:41:24.060
totally wrong on for a while and now seem to be more right on than ever.
1892
00:41:24.390 --> 00:41:24.850
Here's the,
1893
00:41:24.960 --> 00:41:25.110
uh,
1894
00:41:25.390 --> 00:41:25.760
look at this.
1895
00:41:26.030 --> 00:41:27.450
Bring me down to Kamala a little bit.
1896
00:41:27.710 --> 00:41:28.250
Who will run?
1897
00:41:28.390 --> 00:41:28.460
Uh,
1898
00:41:28.630 --> 00:41:29.140
Kamala Harris,
1899
00:41:29.390 --> 00:41:30.180
give me that graph.
1900
00:41:30.470 --> 00:41:31.300
Look at this graph.
1901
00:41:31.670 --> 00:41:32.370
Look at that.
1902
00:41:32.950 --> 00:41:35.260
She was up to 80% not that long ago.
1903
00:41:35.400 --> 00:41:37.040
Now we're down to 55%,
1904
00:41:37.070 --> 00:41:37.540
and you might say,
1905
00:41:37.590 --> 00:41:37.900
wow,
1906
00:41:37.990 --> 00:41:39.410
you must have made a lot of money on that.
1907
00:41:39.670 --> 00:41:39.820
No,
1908
00:41:39.910 --> 00:41:40.990
it's about where I bought it at.
1909
00:41:41.030 --> 00:41:42.970
But that's a total side story.
1910
00:41:44.090 --> 00:41:45.400
I bought it at 55,
1911
00:41:45.690 --> 00:41:47.040
took the losses all the way up to 80,
1912
00:41:47.090 --> 00:41:49.640
and then a collapse over the past couple of weeks with that Newsome video,
1913
00:41:49.690 --> 00:41:50.800
which I don't think anyone else called out,
1914
00:41:50.860 --> 00:41:52.270
but then this Axios clip,
1915
00:41:52.530 --> 00:41:52.640
uh,
1916
00:41:52.730 --> 00:41:52.880
is,
1917
00:41:52.930 --> 00:41:53.680
is making the rounds.
1918
00:41:53.770 --> 00:41:54.070
So
1919
00:41:54.250 --> 00:41:55.640
that one's looking pretty good.
1920
00:41:55.770 --> 00:41:57.840
I don't know if you're interested in getting in on that one.
1921
00:41:58.110 --> 00:42:00.190
Another one that I told you I kind of liked before,
1922
00:42:00.430 --> 00:42:02.500
the Toronto Blue Jays making the playoffs.
1923
00:42:02.630 --> 00:42:03.580
Doesn't feel that way.
1924
00:42:03.670 --> 00:42:04.540
It doesn't feel that way,
1925
00:42:04.630 --> 00:42:05.220
boys and girls.
1926
00:42:05.310 --> 00:42:05.410
Uh,
1927
00:42:05.870 --> 00:42:07.450
Blue Jays needing a miracle.
1928
00:42:07.730 --> 00:42:08.550
Nearing elimination,
1929
00:42:08.570 --> 00:42:11.620
Blue Blue Jays require the sort of miracle that has been elusive.
1930
00:42:11.680 --> 00:42:12.290
As you know,
1931
00:42:12.510 --> 00:42:13.480
I'm America's only,
1932
00:42:13.670 --> 00:42:13.740
uh,
1933
00:42:14.110 --> 00:42:15.460
except for my other family members,
1934
00:42:15.580 --> 00:42:17.370
Toronto Blue Jays fan here in America.
1935
00:42:17.670 --> 00:42:17.810
Uh,
1936
00:42:18.070 --> 00:42:18.760
they are now,
1937
00:42:18.890 --> 00:42:20.790
If they win all six of their remaining games,
1938
00:42:20.880 --> 00:42:22.670
they are down to a 57% chance.
1939
00:42:22.760 --> 00:42:24.540
So even if they sweep all the games,
1940
00:42:24.720 --> 00:42:26.680
they still barely have a 50% chance
1941
00:42:26.880 --> 00:42:27.320
of that.
1942
00:42:27.430 --> 00:42:28.580
How's that market looking for me?
1943
00:42:28.680 --> 00:42:29.350
I know I'm way,
1944
00:42:29.440 --> 00:42:30.110
way up on this one.
1945
00:42:30.200 --> 00:42:31.580
Get me down to Toronto here.
1946
00:42:31.800 --> 00:42:31.850
Uh,
1947
00:42:31.960 --> 00:42:34.340
who will qualify for the Major League Baseball playoffs.
1948
00:42:34.480 --> 00:42:36.080
I told you this is just not happening this year.
1949
00:42:36.160 --> 00:42:36.270
I,
1950
00:42:36.360 --> 00:42:37.020
I want to believe,
1951
00:42:37.200 --> 00:42:37.910
I hope to believe.
1952
00:42:38.050 --> 00:42:39.090
Show me the graph if you can there,
1953
00:42:39.320 --> 00:42:39.730
Adam.
1954
00:42:40.040 --> 00:42:40.740
Uh,
1955
00:42:41.040 --> 00:42:41.590
let's see.
1956
00:42:41.720 --> 00:42:41.830
Oh,
1957
00:42:41.880 --> 00:42:41.990
yeah,
1958
00:42:42.120 --> 00:42:42.620
look at that.
1959
00:42:42.720 --> 00:42:42.870
Oh,
1960
00:42:42.940 --> 00:42:43.030
yeah,
1961
00:42:43.080 --> 00:42:43.470
we're down,
1962
00:42:43.600 --> 00:42:43.830
down,
1963
00:42:43.980 --> 00:42:44.990
down to,
1964
00:42:45.120 --> 00:42:45.390
what is it,
1965
00:42:45.520 --> 00:42:46.550
5%.
1966
00:42:47.000 --> 00:42:47.540
Chance.
1967
00:42:47.800 --> 00:42:48.110
They,
1968
00:42:48.360 --> 00:42:49.910
they swung back into it for a while,
1969
00:42:50.000 --> 00:42:50.340
but
1970
00:42:50.600 --> 00:42:53.150
I'm gonna make a good amount of money on my sadness
1971
00:42:53.320 --> 00:42:54.400
on that particular one.
1972
00:42:54.560 --> 00:42:54.900
OK.
1973
00:42:55.080 --> 00:42:55.390
Um,
1974
00:42:55.640 --> 00:42:56.390
I have a couple more here,
1975
00:42:56.440 --> 00:42:57.790
but I don't have time because we're running late.
1976
00:42:57.880 --> 00:42:58.470
I'll take a break.
1977
00:42:58.520 --> 00:42:59.350
We'll bring them to you tomorrow.
1978
00:42:59.480 --> 00:43:00.840
There's gonna be plenty for you tomorrow.
1979
00:43:01.090 --> 00:43:01.600
Check that out,
1980
00:43:01.720 --> 00:43:01.730
uh,
1981
00:43:01.840 --> 00:43:02.670
predictableShow.com.
1982
00:43:02.760 --> 00:43:04.420
We always list all my positions up there.
1983
00:43:04.600 --> 00:43:05.750
If you're a premium subscriber,
1984
00:43:05.880 --> 00:43:07.620
so you get to see all these things and make fun of me.
1985
00:43:07.760 --> 00:43:07.830
Say,
1986
00:43:07.880 --> 00:43:08.040
hey,
1987
00:43:08.060 --> 00:43:09.270
you're totally wrong on Kamala Harris,
1988
00:43:09.290 --> 00:43:09.860
and then
1989
00:43:10.040 --> 00:43:11.730
I'll be fully vindicated
1990
00:43:11.920 --> 00:43:13.110
at some point in the near future,
1991
00:43:13.160 --> 00:43:13.620
I'm
1992
00:43:13.800 --> 00:43:14.070
sure.
1993
00:43:14.210 --> 00:43:14.670
Back in a second.
1994
00:43:24.100 --> 00:43:25.300
We are everywhere you can be,
1995
00:43:25.390 --> 00:43:25.780
I think,
1996
00:43:25.800 --> 00:43:26.400
at this point.
1997
00:43:26.540 --> 00:43:26.650
Uh,
1998
00:43:26.860 --> 00:43:28.320
join us on audio podcast,
1999
00:43:28.460 --> 00:43:28.570
uh,
2000
00:43:28.620 --> 00:43:30.530
if you happen to be an audio-only listener,
2001
00:43:30.620 --> 00:43:32.210
we love you so much there.
2002
00:43:32.300 --> 00:43:33.320
We also have,
2003
00:43:33.660 --> 00:43:34.020
uh,
2004
00:43:34.260 --> 00:43:35.230
some great
2005
00:43:35.460 --> 00:43:35.930
stuff on,
2006
00:43:36.060 --> 00:43:36.250
uh,
2007
00:43:36.500 --> 00:43:36.650
gosh,
2008
00:43:36.700 --> 00:43:37.500
we're on DirecTV,
2009
00:43:37.580 --> 00:43:38.000
we're on,
2010
00:43:38.100 --> 00:43:38.500
uh,
2011
00:43:38.740 --> 00:43:39.770
AT&T Uverse,
2012
00:43:39.810 --> 00:43:40.530
we're on Fubo,
2013
00:43:40.620 --> 00:43:41.720
we're on Pluto TV.
2014
00:43:41.860 --> 00:43:42.850
We're on the first.
2015
00:43:43.130 --> 00:43:43.400
TV.
2016
00:43:43.530 --> 00:43:44.970
We are on Blaze TV.
2017
00:43:45.050 --> 00:43:46.360
We're kinda almost everywhere.
2018
00:43:46.450 --> 00:43:48.120
The only prediction market show that's really out there
2019
00:43:48.120 --> 00:43:49.520
doing this on a day to day basis.
2020
00:43:49.730 --> 00:43:50.200
And you know,
2021
00:43:50.320 --> 00:43:50.440
we,
2022
00:43:50.570 --> 00:43:51.310
we appreciate you,
2023
00:43:51.410 --> 00:43:51.520
uh,
2024
00:43:51.730 --> 00:43:52.040
joining us.
2025
00:43:52.130 --> 00:43:53.000
One of the reasons are we,
2026
00:43:53.090 --> 00:43:53.480
we were very,
2027
00:43:53.570 --> 00:43:53.730
very,
2028
00:43:53.850 --> 00:43:54.290
we've been very,
2029
00:43:54.330 --> 00:43:55.190
very profitable
2030
00:43:55.330 --> 00:43:56.920
and people continue to keep coming back.
2031
00:43:57.050 --> 00:43:57.310
So
2032
00:43:57.480 --> 00:43:58.250
the show is growing really,
2033
00:43:58.330 --> 00:43:58.830
really fast.
2034
00:43:59.050 --> 00:44:01.450
PredictableShow.com premium subscribers growing really,
2035
00:44:01.530 --> 00:44:02.140
really fast.
2036
00:44:02.610 --> 00:44:03.360
It means a lot to us.
2037
00:44:03.460 --> 00:44:04.520
So thank you so much for joining us.
2038
00:44:04.580 --> 00:44:06.670
The whole team thanks you for uh getting on board.
2039
00:44:06.850 --> 00:44:08.180
We've got 6 weeks left
2040
00:44:08.330 --> 00:44:08.920
for the selection.
2041
00:44:09.410 --> 00:44:09.520
Uh,
2042
00:44:09.690 --> 00:44:11.560
so there's a massive profit opportunity,
2043
00:44:11.650 --> 00:44:12.880
we're gonna take advantage of it.
2044
00:44:13.170 --> 00:44:14.120
At least I'm gonna try really,
2045
00:44:14.210 --> 00:44:14.550
really hard,
2046
00:44:14.570 --> 00:44:15.600
and I think we're gonna do well.
2047
00:44:15.770 --> 00:44:17.790
So join us at predictableShow.com.
2048
00:44:18.090 --> 00:44:19.370
We've got more for you tomorrow.