Catastrophic Engineering with Ethan Moriarty

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Gabriel: Howdy folks and
welcome back to another episode
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of the Chaser Chat Podcast.
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I am Gabriel Harber and I am
very excited to talk about
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today's topic with all of you.
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It's something that I was not expecting
to be the inspiration for an episode,
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I was actually listening to one of
my favorite financial podcasts called
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Oddlots, highly recommended to all of
you if you're interested in markets,
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trading, economics, that sort of thing.
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But as soon as I heard a particular
portion of an episode that was about,
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of all things, insurance issues right
now in the state of Florida, I could
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only think of one person and that person
introducing right now, Ethan Moriarty.
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How you doing, buddy?
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Ethan: I'm doing well, Gabe.
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How about yourself?
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Gabriel: I am doing great.
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Very excited to be chatting with
you about this because it might not
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at first glance appear that this is
something that you would be an expert
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in, but once people have an opportunity
to listen to this short clip that I
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lifted from the episode, I think they
will understand very well why it is I
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knew I had to get you on the podcast.
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So I'm going to go ahead and play
that clip right now, and then Ethan
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and I will be back in just a moment.
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Audio Clip: The 18% of
Floridians having the insurance.
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Yeah.
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I think it's gonna send a message
because the message that we've been
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trying to send as we educate folks
about insurance and how it works is
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that you need to spread the risk.
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You need to have a pool of risk
in order to absorb the losses.
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Yeah.
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When they happen.
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To put it bluntly, are taxpayers
in less flood prone areas currently
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subsidizing the construction of
homes in more flood prone areas?
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Yes, they are.
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And that's a problem.
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One of the fact that you have construction
in areas that are in harm's way.
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And when you have a development
that's by the coast, you're going
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to have impermeable surfaces.
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When you have asphalt, there's
nowhere for the water to go.
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So it stays inside homes or it backs up.
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There's one word which I
focus on when I think about.
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Catastrophes and in Florida, and
that is resilience, resilience,
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strengthen homes, capacities to
withstand these kinds of storms.
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Florida has recognized the issue.
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So if we look at the track of Helene
a few weeks ago, because Michael
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hit Florida in the Gulf area, in the
big bend area, the panhandle side.
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Building codes were strengthened.
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Houses were built to code.
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But when Helene crossed the border from
Florida into Georgia, there was much
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more destruction in Georgia because
Georgia does not have those stringent
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building codes that you need to have to
really make your house more resilient.
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So resilience is key on a national basis.
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I turned back to 1953 when the Dutch
low country below seawater flooded
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lots and lots of times for centuries.
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1953, they had a horrible Storm there
and they said Basta it's not Dutch,
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but Dutch equivalent of enough.
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They said Kuk, I guess Kuk.
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And they had a big project to build levies
and other sort of defense systems and they
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haven't had a massive flood loss since.
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And also if we compare
Hurricane Katrina of 2005.
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To Ida, exactly 16 years later.
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We remember 2005 when the levees
burst in New Orleans, and after
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that, the levees were strengthened
and the city survived Ida, which was
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as powerful a storm for Louisiana.
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So that demonstrates
that resilience works.
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There's a ratio that's typically used
in the industry that 1 of resilience
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results in 6 of disaster relief averted.
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By the way, Tracy, I just got to say,
if there are any academic economists
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listening to this episode, do a
paper on the Florida versus Georgia
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damage and the natural experiment
we saw on updated building codes.
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It sounds like it's there for
the taking for someone looking
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for their master's thesis.
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Gabriel: Okay, so definitely
something that is right up your alley,
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Ethan, and this gives us a great
opportunity to actually talk for a
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second about your YouTube channel.
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I'm actually so happy and excited
for everything that has happened for
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you over the past couple of years.
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I remember chatting with you when your
YouTube channel 'June First' first
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started and I remember some of the
early struggles that you were having
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and it has just absolutely exploded
into a WX powerhouse at this point.
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So first of all, just
congratulations to you on that.
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Ethan: Thanks, Gabe.
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I appreciate it.
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Yeah, it's been a interesting journey
thus far with how it's evolved.
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It was a rudderless ship for a while.
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I would say in the early stages,
dating even back to 2018, but to find
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my little corner and develop it from
there, it's been a very fun journey
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and I'm excited to be full steam ahead.
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Gabriel: A lot of the content that you
cover on the June First YouTube channel
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is related to damage indicators, damage
markers, how building codes affect the
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eventual outcomes of severe weather.
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And that particular clip that people
just listened to talked a lot about how
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maybe the reason we don't see as much
damage in Florida from something like
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Helene is because they've just been
battered and beaten down so many times
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that it has forced insurance companies
and legislators to both demand that the
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building codes be increased to a higher
quality and then you get into places like
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Georgia, North Carolina, places that are
already synonymous with maybe some of
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the poorer economies in the US situated
there in the Appalachian Mountains.
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So I'll go ahead and give the
floor over to you, and if you could
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maybe just share with folks some
of what you discovered when you
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were doing some research into this.
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Ethan: Yeah, so with Florida's building
regulations, a lot of this goes back
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to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which
is a extremely infamous case when it
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comes to inland hurricane impacts.
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For those that don't know, Hurricane
Andrew made landfall as a Category 5 along
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the eastern coast of Florida, basically
going through the Fort Lauderdale area and
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then eventually coming back out the far
side into the Gulf and then landfalling
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another time up in the interior Gulf.
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But the widespread impacts were
mainly within interior Florida,
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which is not something that we
typically associate with hurricanes.
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The surge in Andrew was not
particularly impactful, but it
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was those inland winds that really
devastated so much of interior Florida.
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And at the time, I believe there was
$25 billion in damage in 1992 just
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isolated to Southern Florida alone when
it comes to home and residential impacts.
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I think there was an estimated total
of 100,000 homes with some level of
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damage and 60,000 completely destroyed.
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And the domino effect from that was what
really led to Florida taking a step back
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and being like, okay, we really need to
reevaluate how we go about things because
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the domino effect after resulted in
tent cities across the state, just from
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the sheer amount of people dislocated.
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Multiple insurance
companies went bankrupt.
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I think somewhere, I think there was
almost like 20 insurance companies that
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went bankrupt in the direct aftermath of
Andrew and there was a resulting housing
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crisis as well in the years after Andrew.
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So, Andrew really woke the state of
Florida up and when they were going back
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and looking at this all, it was realized
that building codes were not standardized
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across the state and they varied wildly.
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Nonetheless, it's...
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goes to show that the building
codes in Florida are a particularly
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important thing, especially with
such a frequency of hurricanes
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being a common staple of Florida.
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So ultimately in the years following,
they took the findings from surveys,
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Tim Marshall being a big part of
one of the surveys and other members
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from like ASCE, which is the American
Society of Civil Engineering and
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other code writers came together and
ultimately Florida was able to adopt new
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building codes that were made mandatory
statewide, which is the highest level
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of building regulations in the country.
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And that's mainly because of the impacts
of Andrew and you can see the lingering
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effects of that and influence of that.
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If we look at Hurricane Milton and the
associated tornado outbreak, if you
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looked at any of the damage indicators
from like the Palm Beach tornado,
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for example, it was in rated an EF3.
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But if you look at those EF3 damage
indicators and look at the images,
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it doesn't look anything like an
EF3 damage indicator and say the
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Plains or even Dixie Alley for that.
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The homes have just been so rigorously
built to code that EF3 damage
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indicator is not the same in Florida
as it is in the rest of the country.
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Which is, an interesting thing to see so
far down the line, the positive impacts
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from the changes within Florida itself.
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Gabriel: Yeah, and I find that
to be really interesting because
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oftentimes, you have this weird play
within the WX community where people
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want things to be rated higher.
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Essentially, what they're saying
in a roundabout way is they
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want there to be more damage.
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But a lot of times, that means that
things might not have been built as
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well as they could have or should have.
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And so then you have a situation like
you just mentioned where an EF3 damage
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indicator in Florida is not the same
as an EF3 damage indicator, let's
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say deep in the heart of Mississippi.
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And it almost seems like a really
good problem to have that we don't see
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tornadoes being rated as highly as they
used to be, because that does mean that
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at least to some degree, places are taking
their building codes more seriously.
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Ethan: And, Florida is
obviously a pretty unique case.
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But, it should be almost like
a standard that we should be
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seeing across the country.
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In some ways, obviously there's,
economic reasons as for being the primary
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drivers as to why that is not the case.
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But, you look at, tornado prone regions
of the country particularly in the Deep
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South and the Great Plains where you have
you know, economic implications where, you
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see a greater abundance of mobile homes.
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And if you look at Florida, for example,
even their mobile homes are on a stricter
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standard than the rest of the country.
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And all of that kind of gets traced
back to Andrew in the case of Florida.
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So it's really interesting to see the
disparity of practices across the country
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when you really zoom the lens out.
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Gabriel: Did you happen to come across
any of the reasons or the methods
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that they use for the mobile homes in
Florida to make them more resilient?
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Ethan: A lot of it comes down to
like retention methods and different
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types of mobile home construction.
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They're obviously a much more stringent,
less I don't want to say a paper mache,
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but basically their building standards
are way more significant and particularly
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also in the retention methods as well.
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Way more rigid and have much more
solid retention methods and tie down
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methods that we typically don't see
in areas of the Deep South where that
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type of stuff is not regulated as
much, or at least on a statewide level.
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Coastal areas are oftentimes like a county
by county basis a lot more stringent, but
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nonetheless looking at some of the states
that were impacted by Helene, for example
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Georgia, for example, granted, not the
most typical Dixie Alley state that we
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think of tornadoes, but nonetheless, there
have been multiple EF4s over the years
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that we can look at in terms of tornado
examples, but, comparing the two states
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in terms of their building practices
the Insurance Institute for Business and
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Home Safety, IBHS, they do a lot of very
interesting work when it comes to severe
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weather and how it impacts home residences
and all that type of stuff some really
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interesting stuff that they do there, and
one of the things that they do is they do
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a report every so often basically codes
along the Atlantic coast and Florida
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earns a grade of a 95 where Georgia on
the other hand earns a grade of a 67,
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and kind of the main thing that kind of
differentiates Georgia from having a nice
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rating, even though it being a Atlantic
bordering state is due to the fact that
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they do have a statewide building code,
but it's, a pretty boilerplate building
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code from the outside looking in.
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But the real kicker is that there are
provisions within the laws that allow
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counties and local jurisdictions to
opt out of statewide code requirements.
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So therefore the state doesn't really have
a uniform enforced building code when,
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you really dive into the details of it.
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So it's those types of things that
you get these wildly varying kind of
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building practices across a state.
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Whereas, you look at the prime example
of Florida being maybe the standard
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that we should be seeing if we really
want to be serious about limiting
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damage from wind borne type storms.
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Gabriel: And that brings me really to
the first, I guess you could call it,
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action item that I was thinking of
when I was formulating this podcast.
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It's that when something like Hurricane
Helene happens, people throw their hands
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up in the air and they say, there's
nothing that could have been done.
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This was an act of God.
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It was out of anybody's control.
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And obviously, that's true to a pretty
large extent but I think when you
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attribute everything to just it was an
act of God and there was nothing that
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could have been done to help the situation
you set yourself up in the future to
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have similar or worse scenarios play out
because there is I think a lot of stuff
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in retrospect you can look at and say
you know hey what there's you know the
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concept of min maxing like we get it that
there's not always going to be the most
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amount of economic resources available
to people in those parts of the country.
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It's, awful It's not fair, but it is what
it is at least at this point in time.
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But what where do you get the most
bang for your buck in reinforcing a
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lot of these buildings and a lot of
these communities that people live in?
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And so that's I guess one of the
things I'm hoping to come out of
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this podcast is maybe it falls upon
the ears of somebody who is in a
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position where they can actually make
suggestions whether at the legislative
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level or you know at the executive
level or you know anything in between
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I think would be a pretty desirable
outcome for a conversation like this.
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Ethan: Yeah, I think a good place to
start in that respect is that report that
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I was talking about earlier the IBHS,
I want to get the exact name here...
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I think it's called rating the states
something along those lines and they
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have exact outlines detailing what
should be done on a regulatory level in
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order to enforce those types of things.
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But I think even if you're an individual,
say you're looking to build a house
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in either hurricane prone area or a
tornado prone area, there are standards
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that you can build your house to if
you really want to be serious about it.
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Fortified comes to mind.
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Fortified is ultimately the most
bulletproof design standard you can
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employ when it comes to building
a house from the bottom up.
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It's that type of standard that ultimately
will, you know, save lives in the grand
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scheme of things, even if you're hit
by an EF4 level to an EF5 intensity
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type tornado, it's going to enforce the
reinforce the structure enough that if
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you're following proper safety practices
of getting to the most interior lowest
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room that you'll have that fighting
chance and not leave it up to fate.
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Especially if we're looking at a mobile
home type situation, for example.
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So that's a place that I think would
make most sense in terms of starting.
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I think also too, it's worth keeping in
mind too, with Helene's inward extent
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that, from a meteorological perspective,
it was an outlier case as well, where
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Helene was moving I think I think I
found a figure that it was moving at like
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the 98th percentile in terms of forward
speed for Gulf landfalling hurricanes,
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which is an extremely interesting
point to look at as well that, it's
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this myriad of factors that really
made Helene such a devastating storm.
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Gabriel: Yeah, absolutely.
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And I like your suggestion of people
taking things into their own hands
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and I guess for lack of a better term
demanding that their houses be built to
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a higher code when they actually do go
to build those houses or those businesses
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or churches or whatever it might be.
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But I also think we subsidize a
lot of stupid shit in this country.
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A lot of dumb stuff, and it seems to me
like a pretty uncontroversial place to put
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federal money, whether it's, created out
of thin air via money printing or, used
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via tax revenue, whatever the case may be.
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I don't think a lot of people would have
problem with subsidizing new structures
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that were being built in these areas that
are prone to severe weather so that they
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were built to these higher building codes.
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I think that would be a pretty
good use of government money.
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And I'm going to cite back to the
beginning when I played that clip from
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the Odd Lots podcast where the guest
on the show said that $1 of resilience
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in the insurance industry is generally
regarded as worth $6 of disaster relief.
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And, in the WX community, I think
we do an absolutely excellent job
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of raising awareness for and raising
money for disaster relief, but it sure
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would make a lot more sense and be a
lot nicer to just pay 20% of that on
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the front end, whether it came through
organizations like charities, or even
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if it was just some sort of government
program, rather than having to spend
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so much more money down the road.
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And also, force people to deal
with the disparate impacts of
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having their entire lives upended.
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Ethan: Yeah, for sure.
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And, a positive lens to look at that.
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Granted, it's not so much in the
windborne side of things, but looking
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more at the flooding perspective.
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One of the things that I've seen
personally; I moved to Hoboken, New Jersey
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about a year ago and this was a town that
was heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy.
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On paper, Hurricane Sandy doesn't seem
like it would be such a devastating
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storm, it being only a Category 1 on
paper, but it was such a low pressure
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storm, such a wide storm, it being the
largest storm ever in the Atlantic basin
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at almost 1200 miles in diameter, and
containing such a low pressure that
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it's windfield timed with a really
poor high tide at a full moon...
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it was just like a worst case
scenario for greater New York City.
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And it, ultimately had one of the most
devastating surges ever seen on the
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eastern coast, and Hoboken, New Jersey in
particular, right across from Manhattan
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was completely submerged basically.
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There was only Stevens University
that was basically spared in
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terms of surge inundation.
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And in the wake of that there
were a lot of programs that were
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ultimately utilized to put funding
into flood infrastructure in the city.
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So around here, there's tons of bioswales,
which are, natural storm drains almost
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that allow for there to be not that
you're not having to rely on these grates
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to take care of the water, but rather
these kind of much larger kind of earthen
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type structures that are much better at
naturally distributing water back into the
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watershed and are much cleaner as well.
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And then additionally several parks
that they're building, one just
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finished and there's another one
that's being finished, that is a giant
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flood mitigation project basically.
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00:20:09,507 --> 00:20:15,037
And underneath there's like a multi
million gallon storm water detention
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area that basically, diverts all this
storm water from the residential areas.
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So, it's cool to see lessons being
learned, at least, in my local area.
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But at the same time too, it's like
this is a lesson that can be learned
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across the country, not only from,
maybe a flood protection measure,
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but also from the windborne damage
side as well like what we saw with
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Florida in the years after Andrew.
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Gabriel: One of the things that always
irritates me is that narrative after
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the fact of it was a generational event.
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It, it only happens like once every 40
years or a hundred years or 250 years.
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00:20:53,132 --> 00:20:58,252
And I get that there is a lot of utility
and referring to things in those terms.
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00:20:58,812 --> 00:21:03,212
But really what I'm hearing is, so
we know it's going to happen again
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at some point, or if it hasn't
happened yet, we know it's going to
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happen at some point in the future.
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That just takes me back to the point
that I was making earlier about an
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00:21:11,582 --> 00:21:17,442
ounce of prevention being worth a
pound of cure, and if we know that
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things like this are going to happen,
it's great to hear that the greater
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New York area has been fortified.
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Is that the greater New York area?
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Did I get that right?
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Ethan: Yeah.
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00:21:26,922 --> 00:21:27,682
Hoboken is.
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00:21:28,592 --> 00:21:28,952
Gabriel: Okay.
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Ethan: Yeah.
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Hoboken is pretty much it.
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It's more New York than Staten
Island as far as I'm concerned.
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So the fact that Staten Island's a
borough is funny to me, but anyway.
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Gabriel: That's a topic for a
different podcast right there.
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Ethan: Definitely.
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00:21:42,472 --> 00:21:46,122
Kay: Hey everyone, Kay here from
Rough Skies Ahead and Chaser Chat.
335
00:21:46,242 --> 00:21:50,262
I wanted to give a quick shout out
to the new Chaser Chat YouTube page,
336
00:21:50,262 --> 00:21:54,092
where you can find all your favorite
episodes uploaded in video form with
337
00:21:54,102 --> 00:21:56,162
a transcription to follow along with.
338
00:21:56,212 --> 00:21:57,862
The link is in the podcast description.
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00:21:57,922 --> 00:22:01,062
Gabriel: You're probably wearing
clothes right now, and I know
340
00:22:01,062 --> 00:22:02,762
you like listening to podcasts.
341
00:22:02,872 --> 00:22:05,172
Why not combine the two
and support the show?
342
00:22:05,242 --> 00:22:06,622
Head over to chaserchat.
343
00:22:06,652 --> 00:22:10,642
com or click the link in the podcast
description, and you'll find all sorts
344
00:22:10,642 --> 00:22:15,712
of items like t shirts, hoodies, beanies,
ball caps, coffee mugs, and more.
345
00:22:15,802 --> 00:22:19,092
And if none of that sounds good,
at least buy a freaking sticker.
346
00:22:19,172 --> 00:22:20,462
It's only three bucks.
347
00:22:20,472 --> 00:22:24,782
Visit the merch store today and support
the podcast by going to chaserchat.
348
00:22:24,802 --> 00:22:27,472
com or clicking the link
in the podcast description.
349
00:22:28,762 --> 00:22:32,162
Gabriel: So yeah it's good to hear that
area has been fortified and it's great to
350
00:22:32,162 --> 00:22:35,622
see those lessons learned, but it would be
wonderful to actually take those lessons
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to other places that have historically,
since we've had modern civilization here
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00:22:40,702 --> 00:22:44,062
in the United States of America, never
experienced an event like that, but we can
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00:22:44,152 --> 00:22:48,602
look at that area and we can say, if what
happened with Sandy happens here, then
354
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the situation is going to be very similar
and I know that what it really comes down
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to right is it comes down to willpower
and a lot of that is just politicians,
356
00:22:57,147 --> 00:23:01,477
regulators not having the desire to
front the bill for something like that.
357
00:23:01,477 --> 00:23:04,577
But I like what Bill Belichick, you
know take it back to your region of
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00:23:04,627 --> 00:23:08,217
the country again I like what Bill
Belichick says which is: Gabriel
359
00:23:08,217 --> 00:23:09,877
You're going to be in pain regardless.
360
00:23:09,967 --> 00:23:12,677
It's obviously this isn't verbatim
But you can have the pain of
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00:23:12,677 --> 00:23:14,117
discipline or the pain of regret.
362
00:23:14,322 --> 00:23:16,692
And you just, you get to pick
which pain you want to go through.
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00:23:16,742 --> 00:23:20,462
And I think that this is the type of
situation where you definitely want the
364
00:23:20,462 --> 00:23:24,912
pain of discipline upfront, rather than
having to pick up the pieces from Sandy
365
00:23:25,072 --> 00:23:26,702
and fortify everything after the fact.
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00:23:26,702 --> 00:23:28,312
Ethan: Definitely.
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00:23:28,332 --> 00:23:34,602
And it's interesting too, because,
obviously the primary devastating impact
368
00:23:34,672 --> 00:23:39,802
of Helene was ultimately the interior
excessive rainfall event in Appalachia.
369
00:23:40,602 --> 00:23:44,122
Western Carolina, obviously getting a
lot of the focus, but Eastern Tennessee
370
00:23:44,122 --> 00:23:46,052
was obviously just as impacted.
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00:23:46,492 --> 00:23:53,632
And, Eastern Tennessee isn't unfamiliar
with an historic excessive rainfall event.
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00:23:54,092 --> 00:23:59,542
If we look back to, I believe
it was August 21st, 2021?
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00:24:00,062 --> 00:24:03,142
Waverly, Tennessee, which was it
wasn't quite Appalachia, but it was
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00:24:03,142 --> 00:24:07,602
another, mountainous area of central
Tennessee saw, I think an absurd
375
00:24:07,602 --> 00:24:10,942
amount of rain in a 12 hour span,
like well over a foot, I think like 18
376
00:24:10,952 --> 00:24:12,462
inches or something along those lines.
377
00:24:12,982 --> 00:24:17,647
And the town of Waverly, Tennessee
took the brunt of the impact.
378
00:24:17,657 --> 00:24:22,697
I think they had somewhere near
double did or double- no wait,
379
00:24:22,697 --> 00:24:25,777
like two dozen fatalities, I think
somewhere in that figure there.
380
00:24:26,127 --> 00:24:30,217
And it was a very similar type of
excessive rainfall event with it being
381
00:24:30,217 --> 00:24:34,447
a community along a main tributary in a
mountainous area where if you're going
382
00:24:34,447 --> 00:24:37,987
to dump that much water there, it's going
to have to go somewhere and it's going
383
00:24:37,987 --> 00:24:40,127
to come through that town, unfortunately.
384
00:24:40,127 --> 00:24:46,037
And though the mitigations there
it's less a matter of, putting
385
00:24:46,047 --> 00:24:49,627
infrastructure in place, but, taking
the lessons learned and, okay we know
386
00:24:49,627 --> 00:24:54,707
how to use the weather prediction
center is really good at issuing
387
00:24:54,717 --> 00:24:57,272
their excessive rainfall forecasts.
388
00:24:57,332 --> 00:25:00,562
Helene was a well forecasted
excessive rainfall event.
389
00:25:00,622 --> 00:25:05,622
This other event in Tennessee, I believe
was forecasted a day or so in advance.
390
00:25:06,222 --> 00:25:11,112
And if you look at the eyes of
legislature or whatever, this would
391
00:25:11,112 --> 00:25:15,562
have been a great learning opportunity
to apply to the mountain communities.
392
00:25:15,612 --> 00:25:20,102
What's the playbook if we can put
something in place to ultimately respond?
393
00:25:20,102 --> 00:25:20,482
Okay.
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00:25:20,482 --> 00:25:26,852
If you're in a a high volume water
location, I'm not sure what the
395
00:25:26,862 --> 00:25:31,132
best term to use there is, but if
you're in a, a main tributary kind
396
00:25:31,132 --> 00:25:34,202
of watershed, that's the kind of
area that you should be putting the
397
00:25:34,202 --> 00:25:37,882
messaging in place well ahead of time
and, putting some sort of evacuation.
398
00:25:37,882 --> 00:25:42,412
Granted, it's, obviously it's gonna, the
playbook that would be needed for that
399
00:25:42,412 --> 00:25:44,322
would be, much more granular in detail.
400
00:25:44,322 --> 00:25:49,102
And it's really tough to hammer home
the details, but nonetheless an event
401
00:25:49,272 --> 00:25:53,982
like what happened in August of 2021
should have ultimately set the wheels in
402
00:25:53,982 --> 00:25:59,062
motion that, three years later, given
the forecast that was presented with
403
00:25:59,062 --> 00:26:03,222
Helene, you would think that three
years would be enough time to figure
404
00:26:03,222 --> 00:26:08,012
out an action plan and enact said plan
in order to evacuate the people that
405
00:26:08,012 --> 00:26:12,312
needed to be evacuated in a systematic
fashion or something along those lines.
406
00:26:12,622 --> 00:26:15,482
So it's this kind of, slightly
disheartening to see, but not
407
00:26:15,502 --> 00:26:19,482
overly surprising at the same time,
given wheels of government are not
408
00:26:19,482 --> 00:26:21,442
exactly the most fastest of moving.
409
00:26:21,442 --> 00:26:21,922
Gabriel: Yeah.
410
00:26:21,922 --> 00:26:26,572
It's definitely once you get to a point
where you're relying on these large
411
00:26:26,962 --> 00:26:33,022
bureaucratic behemoths to save your
life, you're already in a really bad
412
00:26:33,022 --> 00:26:37,722
position because like you said, they
just move so slowly that a lot of times
413
00:26:37,732 --> 00:26:40,662
all the damage is already done before
they can even arrive on the scene.
414
00:26:40,892 --> 00:26:45,052
Ethan: It would be nice to have
seen at least an effort made in the
415
00:26:45,092 --> 00:26:47,532
aftermath of say the 2021 event.
416
00:26:47,822 --> 00:26:51,042
Maybe it's a little bit more
understandable if something was started,
417
00:26:51,662 --> 00:26:54,162
I would think three years would be
enough time to get something started.
418
00:26:54,162 --> 00:26:58,522
But at the same time too, now that
Helene has been such a widespread event.
419
00:26:58,552 --> 00:27:03,132
I think the 2021 event I think was, if
I'm recalling the timeline correctly,
420
00:27:03,282 --> 00:27:07,552
was quickly then overshadowed
by Ida just a week or two later.
421
00:27:07,962 --> 00:27:13,182
So you know, you think about it in that
perspective, a freak excessive rainfall
422
00:27:13,192 --> 00:27:18,042
type event that doesn't have a name
attached to it maybe falls out of the mind
423
00:27:18,162 --> 00:27:21,007
pretty quickly in the weeks following.
424
00:27:21,007 --> 00:27:25,347
But something like Helene, especially
being in a much more heavily populated
425
00:27:25,347 --> 00:27:29,447
area in Asheville, for example, is
ultimately going to maintain the
426
00:27:29,447 --> 00:27:31,207
attention span for a little bit longer.
427
00:27:31,527 --> 00:27:35,077
Maybe not necessarily from a government
sense, though, that would be nice to see.
428
00:27:35,527 --> 00:27:40,052
Maybe this is the kind of event that
takes place that ultimately kind of
429
00:27:40,052 --> 00:27:43,442
wakes people up a little bit in these
types of communities that live in kind
430
00:27:43,442 --> 00:27:48,782
of mountain tributary towns to maybe
pay attention a little bit more to WPC
431
00:27:49,367 --> 00:27:51,707
excessive rainfall event type messaging.
432
00:27:52,007 --> 00:27:55,037
If you live alongside a river, maybe
it's worth keeping an eye on that
433
00:27:55,037 --> 00:27:58,397
type of thing or setting up an alert
and kind of getting ahead of the
434
00:27:58,407 --> 00:27:59,937
stone if you want to call it that.
435
00:28:00,737 --> 00:28:04,942
Gabriel: I really liked the point that you
made about the Tennessee event, not having
436
00:28:04,942 --> 00:28:10,502
a name, but Hurricane Helene being like an
event with a name because Gabriel humans,
437
00:28:10,742 --> 00:28:17,952
for all of our downfalls and inadequacies,
we tend to react very well to stories.
438
00:28:18,032 --> 00:28:18,842
We love stories.
439
00:28:18,842 --> 00:28:22,252
And so when you give something a name
and there's a narrative behind it, I do
440
00:28:22,252 --> 00:28:26,792
agree with you that I think there is a
lot of potential for this to actually
441
00:28:26,802 --> 00:28:31,472
stick in people's memories and spur some
action versus a random rainfall event
442
00:28:31,502 --> 00:28:35,812
in Tennessee or Kentucky, which, it's
basically called the rainfall event of
443
00:28:36,252 --> 00:28:40,252
August 15th, 2022 or something like that.
444
00:28:40,902 --> 00:28:41,532
Ethan: For sure.
445
00:28:41,602 --> 00:28:45,372
And, I think there is a lot of
good that's going around, too.
446
00:28:45,392 --> 00:28:47,702
Granted obviously the impacts are tragic.
447
00:28:47,712 --> 00:28:49,962
There's nothing that we
can really do about that.
448
00:28:49,962 --> 00:28:54,522
But I think like folks like Aaron Rigsby,
for example, that have been back and forth
449
00:28:54,522 --> 00:28:58,522
between the impacted areas and documenting
the people's stories out of there.
450
00:28:59,012 --> 00:29:02,952
I think it's really cool to see that
people within our community particularly
451
00:29:02,952 --> 00:29:09,187
are taking the initiative to capture
not only the imagery associated with the
452
00:29:09,187 --> 00:29:13,137
devastation, because that's obviously
a primary thing that so many chasers
453
00:29:13,137 --> 00:29:16,897
do, but to also capture the stories
associated with it, which is something
454
00:29:16,897 --> 00:29:21,627
that I personally have wanted to do
for some time now and have started to
455
00:29:21,627 --> 00:29:23,007
get those wheels in motion as well.
456
00:29:23,007 --> 00:29:27,722
But to see what Aaron's doing, for
example, is really cool to see and those
457
00:29:27,762 --> 00:29:29,802
and they're reaching a wide audience too.
458
00:29:30,342 --> 00:29:34,862
And hearing directly from the sources
of people that had to endure such a
459
00:29:34,942 --> 00:29:40,092
traumatic and life threatening event,
hearing it directly from a first person
460
00:29:40,092 --> 00:29:45,262
source is the type of messaging that
ultimately sends the learning lessons
461
00:29:45,262 --> 00:29:50,667
home, if you will even though we get these
messages ahead of time what to expect.
462
00:29:51,107 --> 00:29:56,417
When you hear stories about like storm
surge or flash flooding events where
463
00:29:56,417 --> 00:30:01,677
the water really is rapidly rising
inches per minute type of thing, and
464
00:30:01,677 --> 00:30:07,117
it's like hard to even comprehend, but
hearing it from not just some graphic
465
00:30:07,147 --> 00:30:13,187
that you see posted on Twitter or
whatever, but rather the lips of the
466
00:30:13,187 --> 00:30:15,427
person that experienced it themselves.
467
00:30:15,447 --> 00:30:18,207
It goes to show like how much
more powerful I think of a
468
00:30:18,207 --> 00:30:19,617
messaging that ends up being.
469
00:30:19,617 --> 00:30:22,057
Gabriel: Yeah, we recently
had an episode on Chaser Chat.
470
00:30:22,057 --> 00:30:26,932
People can scroll back in the feed
with a survivor of the flooding
471
00:30:26,942 --> 00:30:28,772
in western North Carolina.
472
00:30:28,962 --> 00:30:33,542
Rosie Vortex actually did that interview
and it was extremely compelling.
473
00:30:33,882 --> 00:30:35,132
Very harrowing stuff.
474
00:30:35,752 --> 00:30:39,132
I would highly recommend anybody who's
listening to this episode, if you're
475
00:30:39,132 --> 00:30:42,692
interested in the subject matter to go
and listen to that one once this is over.
476
00:30:43,192 --> 00:30:47,012
And like you said, it just, it really
drives the point home to be listening
477
00:30:47,012 --> 00:30:51,282
to a person who experienced it,
and he was very candid with Rosie.
478
00:30:51,292 --> 00:30:53,032
He thought that he was about to die.
479
00:30:53,132 --> 00:30:56,852
He was making his peace with his creator
and he was like I guess this is it 'cause
480
00:30:56,882 --> 00:31:02,142
I'm in a trailer and, he had watched
other, other structures just basically
481
00:31:02,142 --> 00:31:04,212
being washed away down the mountainside.
482
00:31:04,252 --> 00:31:06,842
And he was like the water's
up to like my knees now.
483
00:31:06,842 --> 00:31:08,572
And it's coming up to my midsection.
484
00:31:08,572 --> 00:31:09,492
And I guess this is it.
485
00:31:09,902 --> 00:31:12,712
So it's really chilling to,
to hear stories like that.
486
00:31:12,712 --> 00:31:14,322
Ethan: Yeah, definitely.
487
00:31:14,342 --> 00:31:18,207
I listened to that podcast episode
on a run as a matter of fact, and
488
00:31:18,207 --> 00:31:20,957
there was at like one point where
I was I was so entrenched in this
489
00:31:20,957 --> 00:31:25,347
guy's story that I realized they
had ran a little bit too far.
490
00:31:25,847 --> 00:31:30,467
And just to go to, yeah, it goes to show
just how powerful that messaging is.
491
00:31:30,467 --> 00:31:34,957
But just to put like an engineering
perspective on kind of the power of
492
00:31:34,957 --> 00:31:37,987
water, for example, because I think
it's a really important message
493
00:31:37,987 --> 00:31:44,577
to, to be had, water is, I believe
around 800 times more dense than air.
494
00:31:45,167 --> 00:31:52,157
And, with that if you move the same
volume of water at say a hundred
495
00:31:52,157 --> 00:31:53,767
miles an hour as you would air.
496
00:31:53,767 --> 00:31:58,567
So say a volume of water at tornadic
speeds, low end tornadic speeds,
497
00:31:58,567 --> 00:32:04,897
for example, that water contains 800
times more energy than that of air.
498
00:32:04,897 --> 00:32:09,687
Water is something that you will not
win the battle against, and it's...
499
00:32:09,727 --> 00:32:12,767
the "turnaround, don't drown" is the
classic example you can point to.
500
00:32:12,767 --> 00:32:16,797
But for anybody that's been in a
rip current in the ocean, you know
501
00:32:16,797 --> 00:32:22,057
exactly that helpless feeling of
being at the mercy of the water.
502
00:32:22,417 --> 00:32:26,407
It's a terrifying experience from a
firsthand perspective and being in
503
00:32:26,837 --> 00:32:34,237
floodwaters for that matter of fact,
filled with debris and mountain runoff
504
00:32:34,827 --> 00:32:39,617
water that has massive amounts of
energy from all coming down the sides
505
00:32:39,617 --> 00:32:45,097
of mountains, just gaining speed and
pooling all in this one tributary.
506
00:32:46,047 --> 00:32:50,777
It's scary to think that, anything that
goes into the water, your chances of
507
00:32:50,777 --> 00:32:53,877
survival pretty much diminish to zero.
508
00:32:54,627 --> 00:33:00,912
And listening to that story in particular,
I believe he had referenced how the people
509
00:33:00,912 --> 00:33:04,882
that were across the lot from him, I
don't believe they were accounted for.
510
00:33:04,882 --> 00:33:08,072
I'm not sure if there was any update
on that after the fact, the people
511
00:33:08,082 --> 00:33:13,362
that once that their trailer had
ultimately gone downstream, like
512
00:33:13,372 --> 00:33:17,622
there's not much you can do and you
can be Michael Phelps for all I care.
513
00:33:17,622 --> 00:33:19,132
You're not swimming out of that water.
514
00:33:19,132 --> 00:33:21,862
Just to put, some numbers
behind it, just to emphasize it.
515
00:33:21,862 --> 00:33:23,852
I think that's an important
message to be had.
516
00:33:23,852 --> 00:33:27,262
Gabriel: I think so too, and as we
bring this episode to a close, I really
517
00:33:27,262 --> 00:33:28,902
hope it's given some food for thought.
518
00:33:29,192 --> 00:33:34,172
Especially on the preventative side of
things that hopefully we can all just keep
519
00:33:34,172 --> 00:33:40,217
in mind that we like to gather lots of
people together and rally behind disaster
520
00:33:40,217 --> 00:33:43,767
relief causes, which is one of the things
I love so much about the WX community.
521
00:33:43,817 --> 00:33:48,097
There's just there's so much caring and
so many heartwarming moments where people
522
00:33:48,097 --> 00:33:50,327
come together like that, but just...
523
00:33:50,377 --> 00:33:55,027
let's not take our eyes off the ball,
and when there's no disaster to be
524
00:33:55,027 --> 00:33:59,987
had, when the situation from Helene
and Milton fades from memory, and it's
525
00:33:59,987 --> 00:34:03,087
been six months or a year or whatever
since we've had the last disaster,
526
00:34:03,457 --> 00:34:05,017
there's still work needs to be done.
527
00:34:05,037 --> 00:34:07,477
There's still battles that need to
be fought, and obviously they're
528
00:34:07,477 --> 00:34:12,847
not always as top of mind and
sexy in the media as other causes,
529
00:34:12,847 --> 00:34:14,357
but they're definitely worth it.
530
00:34:14,367 --> 00:34:18,517
And It's one of those things where you
never know how bad things could have been.
531
00:34:18,527 --> 00:34:22,417
So it's not like you can quantify how
many lives you saved or how much money
532
00:34:22,417 --> 00:34:26,347
you saved when a disaster happens
and buildings are properly fortified
533
00:34:26,347 --> 00:34:30,217
and evacuation plans are followed and
people do act on those sorts of things.
534
00:34:30,217 --> 00:34:33,597
And so it typically doesn't get the
same sort of press because, it's not
535
00:34:33,597 --> 00:34:38,977
a great headline like preventative
measures hold strong, nobody injured, no
536
00:34:38,977 --> 00:34:42,567
property lost, like that's not going to
get, that's not going to grab headlines
537
00:34:42,797 --> 00:34:46,307
on newspapers and, the five o'clock
news, but it's absolutely something
538
00:34:46,307 --> 00:34:49,537
that's worth all of us continuing
to keep in mind and striving for.
539
00:34:49,537 --> 00:34:51,517
Ethan: Yeah, 100%.
540
00:34:51,537 --> 00:34:56,267
And, this kind of goes back to something
that I like to think of from my, my, my
541
00:34:56,267 --> 00:35:02,672
days playing hockey was, the verbiage
of the best defense is the best offense
542
00:35:02,882 --> 00:35:07,012
type of thinking where if you have the
preventative measures up in place, you
543
00:35:07,012 --> 00:35:12,402
can take things into your own hands to be
prepared for the situation that pertains
544
00:35:12,402 --> 00:35:16,662
to you, whether you live in a hot spot
of tornado alley, for example, and, you
545
00:35:16,662 --> 00:35:19,932
install a shelter if you have the means
to, or at least just having, some sort
546
00:35:19,932 --> 00:35:26,492
of action plan in place, evacuating when
evacuations are recommended or in place.
547
00:35:26,852 --> 00:35:31,182
Ethan It's those types of things that
ultimately save lives, and at the same
548
00:35:31,182 --> 00:35:36,542
time too, if you have the means to
take the more structured approach of
549
00:35:36,602 --> 00:35:41,762
designing a home- granted, obviously
not everybody has that capability to
550
00:35:41,762 --> 00:35:46,432
do that, but nonetheless, if you are
at least aware of what you could be
551
00:35:46,432 --> 00:35:50,572
doing within your means, that sets
you up more for success in the future.
552
00:35:50,572 --> 00:35:51,412
Gabriel: Amen to that.
553
00:35:51,432 --> 00:35:55,192
Ethan, I really appreciate you
joining me on the podcast here today.
554
00:35:55,202 --> 00:35:58,172
Before I let you go, could you tell
people where they could find you on
555
00:35:58,172 --> 00:36:03,187
social media and also give june First
a little bit of a plug here, let
556
00:36:03,187 --> 00:36:06,497
people know what they can expect if
they go visit the YouTube channel and
557
00:36:06,497 --> 00:36:07,917
tell them why they should subscribe.
558
00:36:07,977 --> 00:36:08,227
Ethan: Yeah.
559
00:36:08,247 --> 00:36:12,377
The main platform that I probably
post the most often on in terms of a
560
00:36:12,377 --> 00:36:16,057
personal level is Twitter @EMoriartyWX.
561
00:36:16,687 --> 00:36:23,862
And then to plug June First, a bit June
First is what started as a project it
562
00:36:23,862 --> 00:36:28,082
from an engineering lens, researching
weather and stuff like that from that
563
00:36:28,082 --> 00:36:32,672
engineering perspective and ultimately now
the kind of the main primary focus is a
564
00:36:32,672 --> 00:36:35,142
weather based content channel on YouTube.
565
00:36:35,232 --> 00:36:38,452
But that doesn't mean that we haven't
strayed from our engineering roots.
566
00:36:38,922 --> 00:36:43,162
I like doing the film stuff, like I
like making videos and stories and
567
00:36:43,162 --> 00:36:47,602
documentaries about weather events
and my own weather stories, but at the
568
00:36:47,602 --> 00:36:51,972
same time too we're doing a couple of
cool things as well now on the side.
569
00:36:51,972 --> 00:36:57,252
We're doing some interesting weather
based engineering projects that I
570
00:36:57,252 --> 00:37:01,072
can't really talk too much about yet.
571
00:37:01,592 --> 00:37:08,982
But what I can say is that it'll
improve the live storm chasing
572
00:37:08,992 --> 00:37:14,572
experience from a very specific
perspective in a very interesting way
573
00:37:14,612 --> 00:37:19,302
that really blends engineering and
what my skill set is in terms of being
574
00:37:19,302 --> 00:37:23,142
a mechanical engineer and developing
the future tools of weather research.
575
00:37:23,142 --> 00:37:29,152
So I'll leave it at that for now and
let the imagination kind of wander
576
00:37:29,152 --> 00:37:31,532
if that's the best way to do it.
577
00:37:31,532 --> 00:37:36,912
But definitely will be some video stuff
about that alongside other films and
578
00:37:36,912 --> 00:37:38,792
stuff about historical weather events.
579
00:37:38,792 --> 00:37:39,142
Gabriel: Awesome.
580
00:37:39,162 --> 00:37:41,472
My imagination is definitely running wild.
581
00:37:41,472 --> 00:37:42,792
So thank you for teasing that.
582
00:37:42,802 --> 00:37:45,482
And thank you once again for
joining me on the show here.
583
00:37:45,482 --> 00:37:46,512
It's been a great conversation.
584
00:37:46,512 --> 00:37:48,192
Ethan: Thanks Gabe for having me.
585
00:37:48,192 --> 00:37:49,292
Gabriel: Thanks for listening.
586
00:37:49,372 --> 00:37:52,662
If you're not already subscribed,
hit that button right now and then
587
00:37:52,662 --> 00:37:56,302
make sure notifications are turned on
so you never miss an episode again.
588
00:37:56,372 --> 00:37:58,922
There are lots of ways to show
your support for Chaser Chat.
589
00:37:59,002 --> 00:38:02,062
You can pick up something from the
merch store, leave a rating and a review
590
00:38:02,062 --> 00:38:05,752
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a comment and a like on YouTube, or
591
00:38:05,752 --> 00:38:09,272
just share the link to this episode on
your preferred social media platform.
592
00:38:09,412 --> 00:38:12,002
Thanks again for listening, and
I'll catch you on the next episode.