TRANSCRIPTION 🔗
WEBVTT
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Welcome into the pay dirt profile podcast
is Dante. been so long since I've
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been able to do that. Say
that it feels good and if ill seasons
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back, podcast is back. Everything's
great in the world. We have a
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lot of stuff to talk about.
Don't want to take too much time on
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this episode, but it's been a
great offseason. It's been a lot of
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time learning, a lot of time
engaging with people in the community, trying
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to build up our following on twitter. As always, you can find us
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at paid underscore profile and you can
always find me personally at Dante underscore PPP.
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We're engaging with other people who are
trying to elevate, people who are
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smarter than US or more experience than
us, and I've learned a ton.
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I was on the Ricky on the
rise podcast with fs Sandman, Britt Sanders.
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He did a great job of showing
me some of the INS and outs
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of being a good show host,
having, you know, proper show notes,
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the professionalism and also just having fun
with things, you know, making
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it make in your own making it
something that people are going to enjoy.
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During this entire last year we had
some ups in our and our downs with
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trying to put together content and stay
on a consistent schedule and we had a
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lot going on, just like everybody
else. Covid kind of set everybody back
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and what their priorities were and what
they had the time to do or not
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to do. Most of my cohost
and I had other familiar obligations or as
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well as work obligations. Is something
that we enjoy doing and doing on the
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side. So we'll definitely be coming
back. Will definitely have more time to
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spend together and I feel like it's
the most fun when the four of us
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are together. But there is going
to be a lot more a solo content
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more consistently so we can have a
more consistent weekly schedule. So today we're
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going to talk some DFS, talk
a couple of players that I think our
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chalk and maybe overlooked a little bit
or maybe just might be a livet dangerously
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play, somebody who isn't top being
talked about quiet enough, and probably rightfully
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so, but could give you a
little bit of value in your lineups.
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Will start off with the chalk plays
of the week. I'm not going to
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give a ton just because everybody kind
of knows you guys probably listen to a
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ton of podcast. You guys probably
do a ton of research. It's week
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one. We have a lot of
injuries on the slate. Unfortunately, we
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have a ton of injuries to that
Ravens Backfield and they're not on the main
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slate for DFS this week. The
Ravens are playing against the raiders on Monday
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night football. If you have Lamar
Jackson and any leagues or any DFS style
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primetime slates like a Sunday Monday,
I am smashing Lamar Jackson. I'm putting
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him into every line up possible because
I think he's going to explode, and
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rightfully so. I think most people
will as well. You can play him
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with Andrews and that game stack or
you can play him by himself. I
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think a lot of people will be
trying to go with the Tyson Williams or
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maybe even a lady on bell to
try to maximize the the value at that
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running back position. But I think
you just go straight up for the quarterback.
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You grab, you know, his
most valuable pass Catcher, and Andrews,
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and you know what, you might
as well throw Marquis Brown in there
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as well and you let it ride. You run it back with a couple
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players. You know, Darren Waller, maybe in a Brian Edwards. He's
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been somebody that everybody has been big
on. But I think if you're going
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for a GPP type play, you
use Henry Rugs, you have your game
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stack there and then you go with
the other side and you hopefully, hopefully,
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come out on top. So I
think my first cash game style play,
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and a play that you can have
in GPP's as well, is going
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to be James Robinson. Once a
travisy TN went down, you basically looked
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at last season and said, okay, that is probably the ceiling for him.
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Top fifteen guy. He's not going
to have the luxury of every single
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touch like he had last year.
When you add a Goomba, Walle and
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Chris Thompson and Armstead all either hurt
or on covid list. Basically James Robbins
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could
Load full transcript
do no wrong. You could
do whatever you want this year. We
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all think to Carlos Hide isn't really
a person that we should worry about it
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terms of volume, but urban Meyer
wants to use Carlos Hide and if he's
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going to do so to keep James
Robinson fresh and healthy, I don't have
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a problem with that? Go ahead
and give him some touches. Obviously,
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would not be great to see him
utilize on the goal line. It's been
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kind of a fifty split in the
preseason. However, I think that was
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to keep Jim Robinson healthy, I
think, more than anything so James Robinson
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has a very fair price on draft
kings. I believe he's sixty four hundred.
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Plan against that Houston Texans Defense,
where they've lost a couple of their
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main linebacking core members, were looking
at a team that is in disarray for
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the most part. I don't know
how they anticipate getting through this season without
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making wholesale changes across their roster.
But Houston was a team who struggled to
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defend the run last year and and
didn't do much to get better. I've
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heard a couple of different twitter accounts
expressing that from year to year you can't
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really look at the team's rankings or
schedule and say that it's going to be
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the same. Every team improves,
every team steps back. But, however,
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with a lot of the covid signings, a lot of players are getting
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signed to one year deals. Where
people were retaining players. The the Texans
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in general. Have I heard something
like twenty nine players on one year deals,
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where you're not getting heavy impacted players
and you have a team that didn't
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make tremendous strides in free agency in
the draft to improve the defense. So
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if you were struggling last year,
I don't want to say that you're absolutely
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going to struggle this year. But
with with covid and with the salary cap
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not expanding quite as much as everybody
thought, I think that we might have
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a little more turnover this year than
we did last year. So I'm targeting
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this running game. Running game that
ranks thirty s versus running backs last year.
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Their last five last year were against
Derrick Henry and week seventeen, then
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Joe Bernard Taylor, Dave Montgomery and
then Johnson Taylor again, going back from
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week seventeen the week thirteen and they
get up thirty nine, twenty one,
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nineteen, twenty seven and twenty two
points to those running back so I feel
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like James Robinson is a pretty safe
play that you can play in cash.
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You know he has a three point
x value at a projection of nineteen point
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three points on the line. Star
APP I don't. I don't see any
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problems here? I don't see any
problems here. You can put him in
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in GPP's as well. I there
are other players that have a similar price
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tag who you know, like Joe
Mixon, that that might garner some of
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that ownership. I think another play
is Antonio Gibson at five nine hundred,
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who people are going to jump all
over. Chris Carson at five nine hundred
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as well. Some of these players
are in similar spots, but Chris Carson
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has so much more consistency in certainty
around him in that passing game. If
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they they you know, get down
or they catch a little bit of fire
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there. You I could see a
Russell Wilson, you know, three touchdown
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game potentially, or even a struggle
fest going in against the team in the
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northwest. There's a there's a lot
of ways that that game could go,
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especially with guys like Darius Leonard Manning
the middle. That could be a Gamer.
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Chris Carson, it has, has
some pretty high ownership due to his
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price, but doesn't really outperform that
fourteen point projection. Same thing with Antonio
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Gibson, wasn't used as heavily as
we might have liked in the passing game
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during the preseason garb to peyton barber, so presumably any short yardage work should
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be his, like we all expected. By Antony Gibson, is another guy
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who has fourteen point, seven point
projection play against the chargers defense, who
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was not very strong last year,
rank twenty four against the position but,
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you know, should be taking some
potential strides this year. I don't think
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it is a bad spot by any
stretch, but I don't think it a
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smashbot either if he's going to be
sharing some time.
So Jen Robinson as
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a guy who I, like I
said, is a guy who can put
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in in every single lineup. I
have a lineup with him as well as
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Rahim most where raheemost is playing against
the detroits thirty second rank defense against the
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run. I'm sure Detroit is going
to be more conservative in their approach,
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trying to project a protect jared goff. I'm sure that they're going to want
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to try to stop the run as
well. However, Rahim most in this
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in this ers offense, the lines
were pretty good at stopping the run on,
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let you know, gap and power
type plays, but we're not great
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against outside zone. If I'm not
mistaken, last year. This is a
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zone heavy team. I feel like
right he mosted his one or two plays
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away from a hundred yard bonus and, you know, one or two touchdown
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day and then, let you know, Trey sermon and the other guys eat
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for the rest of the game.
At fifty eight hundred. I like Rhee
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most her more than some of those
other guys I mentioned at five nine hundred.
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Mile Sanders being at sixty five against
Atlanta is another one that people are
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going to potentially try to go to. Atlanta is kind of struggled a little
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bit against pass catching running backs,
but I think that that was more so
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do to Dan Quinn's defense playing a
lot of cover three and running and chasing
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and rallying and taking away those short
passes after the catch was already made.
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With Dean P's I think that the
we're going to see some differences from the
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Falcon's offense. They still don't work. Excuse me, the defense. The
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defense still doesn't profile. Is a
super stout defense as far as the personnel
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goes, but Dean P's coming over
from you know, the Ravens and and
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Tennessee helping those defenses out. I
feel like he is going to be a
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guy who is going to put those
guys in a position to succeed where they
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might have some ups, more ups
than last year. So that brings me
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to my kind of get weird,
live dangerously GPP play. I'm taking the
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Atlanta Falcons at two thousand dead minimum
on DK as my defense, and in
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some of my tournaments you can even
play him and play them in cash.
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They should, at a two point
seven valuation, be able to or two
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point seven x value, be able
to hit their their five point projection.
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But this is a defense who,
week one, has a ton of time
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to plan and study. Jalen hurts, Guy who only had a couple of
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starts last year, a guy who
was up and down. I'm a huge
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jalen hurts fan. I think that
he has a great opportunity to utilize his
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legs. But if MP's is going
to throw different blitz looks and different zone
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looks, you might be able to
take away some of that running ability if
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you run a little bit more zone
there. Their past catching or receiving core
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is not overlea stout in Philadelphia.
So at the end of the day you're
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not really looking at too many weapons
that are going to just, you know,
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blow you away. They should be
a steady offense. Their offensive line
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should be more healthy, so they
should be more ready to go. But
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there's still some question marks there.
So if deem bees can D dial up
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a bigtime game plan, the linebacking
core being the strength of the Falcons team,
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they can stop the run. Last
year we're a very sneaky run,
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quality run Defense Force them into passing
at a volume that they probably don't want
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to be. They probably want to
be a more balanced offense there in Philadelphia.
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They're throwing a little bit more.
You know, you might see a
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couple of interceptions here, a couple
of sacks and I think they opened at
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a forty seven total, which which
is not ultralow, but it's not ultra
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highs right in the middle. So
I think that's that's a great play if
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you want to throw in one or
two lineups just to kind of differentiate yourself
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and really give you that flexibility to
jam in a bunch of studs. Might
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have a lineup where I'm playing that
defense as well as my next kind of
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get weird, kind of lay in
order to Jamm and guys like C MC
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and Dalvin Cook so my next play
is going to be Tyler Croft, the
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tight end for the New York jets, and and Tyler Croft is a guy
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who has never been a big time
fantasy contributor. He had a season,
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I believe in two thousand and sixteen, agree, about four hundred yards and
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seven touchdowns, forty two catches,
something like that, where he kind of
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surprised a little bit, kind of
was a guy you could pick up off
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of your waiver wire and be a
touchdown dependent type of tight end, but
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other than that he hasn't been a
guy you can rely on a consistent basis.
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But in this offense utilizing the tight
end heavily, coming over from the
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the Ers, I believe that he's
in a great spot, at least in
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week one, to have that,
you know, twenty five hundred dollar price
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tag, catch a touchdown and maybe
get, you know, four catches for
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forty or fifty yards and set you
up big with the other point positions in
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your lineup. If you take a
look at what they've done in the preseason,
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they let go of Chris Herndon,
Kenny, you boa, the the
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tight end out of old miss the
only other major pass catcher I believe is
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on the practice squad now. There's
nobody else in that tight in room who
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is going to garner a ton of
targets or even playing time. You know
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that old age, or the age
old adage that you know young quarterbacks are
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going to throw it to the tight
end, and that may or may not
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be true, but we've seen a
Zach Wilson has an affinity to throw the
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Corty Cory Davis. Earlier in training
camp he had an affinity to throw to
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Elijah more and also with Tyler Croft. So Elijah more's, you know,
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been nicked up a little bit towards
the end of training camp. He sounds
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like he should be able to play, but crowder is not going to be
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playing, not going to be manning
the slot. So might get another target
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or too coming the ways by the
ways of the tight end. At the
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end of the day it really comes
down to how do you feel about that
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connection in that game and how do
you feel about utilizing a guy who may
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get you two catches for ten yards? I think I've seen a little bit
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more traction building because the panthers were
not good at defending the
tight end last
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year and they didn't do very much
in free agency. Are The draft to
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address that position. They did pick
up JAC HORNE WHO, by all account,
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should probably be spending a decent amount
of time on Cory Davis and if
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so, then some of those past, you know, passing targets might be
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funneled elsewhere. He might not get
that seventy five percent get sure he's beginning
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during his snaps in the preseason.
So I like Tyler Croft. I like
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the Atlanta's defense, not as mainstays
where I'm going to play them in every
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lineup, but I do have them
sprinkled in as well as sprinkled in together
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to really really be able to jam
in guys that I want to play,
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those upper levels, seven and eight
K guys, so I can try to
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maximize that in a cash game lineup
or two and then maybe even a GPP
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lineup. As I stated, I'm
going to leave the major roster construction in
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major player evaluation to the guys who
do this a ton, the guys who
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have much more research and experience.
But those are just some guys that I'm
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taking some shots on, guys that
you know, I don't I don't hear
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a whole lot about. So maybe
guys. You want to look at other
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than that. You know, I
hope that everybody is enjoying their fantasy leagues'
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first week. I mean the the
first game was a great game to start
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off with. You know, high
scoring, you know, high passing offense
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game. I mean it sucks to
see the injuries to Gallop. Hopefully,
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you know, he'll be back sooner
rather than later, but it looks like,
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you know, Cooper and lamb are
going to pick up where they left
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off. It looks like Zeke struggled
a little bit. He's not quite looking
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as surprise you would have hoped.
When you hear all of the cliche he's
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lost articles and things of that nature. I just think that at some point,
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you know in your career, sometimes
you know that you start losing that
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juice and it looks like Pollard has
it, but we've never seen Pollard hold
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up to a big time workload and
we know that even with less juice,
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that Z can do that. So
that that kind of backsfield splits going to
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be interesting. I think in the
Games whereas he gets major volume he's going
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to be a why or R be
one for you, and Games where he
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doesn't get major volume when he's getting
touches in the, you know, ten
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to fourteen range like those might be, you know, R betwo or worst
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games, and so, you know, I would be a little bit more
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worried about that, you know.
Lastly, I mean, Hey guys,
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if you guys want to engage with
us on twitter again, hit us at
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pay dirt, underscore profile, give
us a follow. Let us know what
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you like which dislike from the podcast. We're still learning, we're still trying
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to grow, we're still trying to
find our niche. I spent a lot
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of time this offseason listening to podcast. As I stated, I was on
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the rookie all the ride podcast.
I mean I'm massive thirty two team twitter
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fantasy league with other people that are
in the industry. They're much further ahead
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than I am. We spent a
lot of time speaking in our and our
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chat and I have to thank Christian
Williams for putting that together and inviting me
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to that league. I also was
able to show up on the going for
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two live podcast where we broke down
the teams. In regards to that League,
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got to talk with Jake Estis and
a ton of different guys who are
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in this industry who, again no
more than I do, have more experience
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than I do. So I'm trying
to be a sponge, trying to learn.
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I think one of our goals mainly
is to learn, engage, listen,
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try to be inclusive in the community. Next we want to make sure
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that we can try to build a
process. I've been watching football for my
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entire life, as well as our
other hosts. We've we've all been around
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the game. You know, I
played football as well as Jamar at Sandigo
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state, Kyle played the University of
Redlands, as well as coaches for high
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school currently, and then Tony,
he's been around the game his entire life
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and also films for NFL films.
So we do have a good baseline of
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knowledge, but there is a ton
to learn as far as the analytics and
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things that you know intuitively and things
that you picked up over time, finding
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out a way that you can condense
that all into one package. You know,
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the idea is the pay dirt profile, you know, profiling ways that
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you can, you know, get
your listeners to hit pater, to have
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success, to to be able to
share and be more knowledgeable. That's the
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goal. So we're just trying to
do things that we can to to get
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to be more consistent and to get
to be more actionable in our processes instead
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of just, you know, intuitively
saying this is what I think, you
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know, having a little bit more
behind it as far as analysis and analytics.
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So that's something definitely going to continue
working on. As for now,
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continue to try to deliver information like
this. Do So and interact on twitter
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and on Instagram, on facebook.
You can also email us at the pay
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dirt profile at gmailcom. Any collaboration
opportunities or any constructive criticism is always appreciated.
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So thank you, guys, for
listening. Everybody. Good luck everybody.
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Hope you have a good first week. I'm going to be with my
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daughter tomorrow while my wife is out
at a spa, and we're going to
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kick back, hang out watching football, place in games, probably go to
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the pool. Hope you guys enjoy
your weekend and until next time we're out