TRANSCRIPTION 🔗
Sam Wood: Hello Punters. Hello, BJ. G'day, Punters. Happy Memzy Stakes Day. We're back. We're so back. Last week we were back. You're not usually this fired up this early for Melbourne Group Ones. I'm just fired up. I love springtime. I I love it. Cheers. We're just saying it's our first post-baby beer, and I said about wet the head. Do people still do wet their heads? Cheers. I actually think that was just our friends thing. I don't think that was actually a We used to wet every baby's head. Whether it was one of ours or someone we knew just had a baby and they we had we I remember we had a wet the head once at ⁓ tracks. What was that called? That pub there. ⁓ the Epping Hotel, I think. I remember having a wet the head there and we That was a great person we had the wet the head for. Didn't there? No. ⁓ yeah, we ⁓ p potentially maybe ⁓ like around Melbourne Cup time, I might be sorted myself out. So You're in the thick of that right now. Yeah. Yeah, hopefully ⁓ hopefully I'll be back in the swing of things ⁓ in a couple of weeks. Yeah. Sure. As as I I gave you some advice today, it does it might not get easier. It might not get easier. You just get used to it. We'll be right. We'll be ⁓ fill up on Saturday. Well done. Even with the ⁓ lack of sleep, etc. We were able to lock in another winning ⁓ Saturday for members. So well done, mate. Yeah, the seconds didn't help. I think we ⁓ sent out six tips. Two of them won. Three of them run seconds and one of them ran a third. I think one of those seconds should have won. But moving on, we've got ⁓ we've got good racing this Saturday as well. It's a it's a it's actually good cards both in Sydney and Melbourne. I haven't really looked anywhere else at this stage, but it's This Memzi Stakes, it's a ripper race too. It's a really good race and it is so open. We're doing the podcast a little bit later today, so I was able to listen to Gator. I like the Gator's game plan on SCN. The game plan is good. With T Hall. I usually listen to Gator. The two units boys, they'd be back. They're back this week. So decided to look at They wouldn't even recognize ⁓ they wouldn't recognise a Sydney Group One as reason to be back. I think Saltz was away. I think they would have been I think they would have been up and about. 'Cause Saltz is a very a big she's a alibi man. ⁓ yeah, he would have been lucky lucky his way, don't you? The wink stakes. ⁓ we we spoke about it last week and we we said that ⁓ it's very much pundant versus punter. A lot of analysts were with she's an alibi and and to recap what you said was without knowing the ceiling of where this horse could be, it's worth the bet at three fifty. And I don't think that was The wrong I'd like to get your take, but I don't think that was the wrong mentality, but Autumn Glow. Yeah, I probably got it wrong. ⁓ I still think ⁓ She's a Alibi could be the best horse in Australia, but ⁓ that would be over 1600 meters plus. ⁓ Autumn Glow is is too good for her over that 1400
Load full transcript
meter trip. But yeah, I think ⁓ She's a Alibi was really good. Those two stamped themselves as clearly the best two horses in the race. Gringotts was good running on. ⁓ there was a few good runs from the back. A little bit disappointed in what Aliana did because I am all over her to win a ⁓ Melbourne Cup, but we'll see her another time before we make a decision on what she's doing this preparation. What if we can make some decisions next week's show? Yeah, we've got the the group one futures podcast. I I've I've there has been a few futures podcasts come out this week. ⁓ I know Daniel O'Sullivan did one with Wolf Dan and Gator did one. I haven't listened to Gator's one yet. ⁓ but I I love the f the futures. It it's it's a bit of fun. It's ⁓ it gives you a chance to to get a a big payday. ⁓ hell yeah. And we'll be having a crack. That's something definitely you and Nick introduced me to in the last two years and I thoroughly enjoyed it. ⁓ more so last year, Spring Carnival. Like it was nice just having a couple of little tickets so you're not having to have a bet that weekend. You feel like 'cause you had the bet. Four weeks ago, it's like that money would be gone anyway by now. You know, it's like it's like free money, really. Like bonus bets, free money. Mm. Mm. It's a good time to to to be getting bonus bets because you can be just ⁓ putting those on on one horse down the track and end up with a big result. Yeah. And your futures. Melbourne Cup. It's always ⁓ good to have a a really big ticket going into Melbourne Cup Day. Do we remember I remember what my horse was that we did that wouldn't get beat in the spring last year. It was via sustainer. I went very safe. Nick went treasure the moment, which we see back this week. When did V Sistini get beat? ⁓ She must have got beaten. It was like the third race. It was in the group Yeah, she got beat. She got third or something. I can't remember. Yeah, the Turnbull stake. She beat the Turnbull. I still can't remember what yours was. She got beat in the Mackay. She might no, she got beaten in the Mackay, I think. And then she came back and won the Turnbull. She was disappointing on a heavy track in the Mackay, I reckon. Tonight is actually whatever the awards are, but for horse of the year. So we can dissect that next next week too. I think top five noms are Sir Delius, Half Yours, Via Sistina, She's Alibi, Autumn Glow. I think Sir I think it's I think it's it's out. I think Sir Dilius wins it. Right, okay. we can we can unpack that next week. I'm looking forward to next week's show. It's gonna be good. I don't know who I'd vote for. ⁓ who'd you say the nominations are? I believe their sister, half yours, Sir Delius, Autumn Glow, and she's an alibi. She's our alibi. I think they're the five. Okay. Yeah. We should we should dissect the next week. Okay. Where we would have gone. Yeah. We have gone. Yeah, but it'll be over by then. Yeah, I know. But we can we can review their decision. Cause Cup, Melbourne Cup, that's always hard to beat those horses. ⁓ what was the horse name? Did it like two years ago? ⁓ without a fight. It without a fight. That year it won. He won. Autumn glow. Yeah, but he won horse of the year that year too. She only got beat once. But that's the Stina had a pretty good prep, kicked off with the Cox Plate. I I'm I'm actually think thinking about it, I'm I'm quite surprised that Sir Delius won it. I think he only won three group ones. That's unconfirmed. You've just said that. I think he I think he won. You've just said that. Horse of the year. No, it's okay. ⁓ yeah, I th I think I think ⁓ it was announced on the radio this morning that he was he was gonna win I don't think it's going be on the Google search edit. yeah, that's definitely the year before. ⁓ well, let's get into this MEMSY stakes because it is a very, very open race. I feel like there was everyone had an opinion last week and it was solely around two horses. In the Discord chat, on the socials, it's been a lot more quiet this this week coming into the MEMSIs because There's so many different ways of looking at it. It's it's Jimmy Star 440, the field. You it and some of the names in this lineup, like we said last week, it just you wouldn't think you would see prices like this next to their names. ⁓ so we're down at Caulfield. We think we're gonna be running on a soft in the soft range still. It is a drawing track, but there is they're expecting a little bit of rain tomorrow that'll just kind of keep it in that soft range. ⁓ Over 1400 meters. ⁓ we've got Jimmy Starr, who's our current favorite at $4.40. Cosmic Crusader, the WA Invader at $5. Beyvacht, $550. Treasure the Moment, $750. Autumn Boy 8. Angel Capital $850. Then you've got Mr. Brightside at $10. He was $11 about an hour ago. Tom Kitten at 20s. Right down to ⁓ Big old buckaroo at sixty-seven dollars. it just like if I was looking at this race and had to get a bet on in the next 20 seconds, which we've all been, you know, gotta get a quick bet on. It'd be hard to look past Mr. Bright side at $10. The 1400 meter specialist loves Caulfield. It's a r but it is a what is he? He's a returning He's a nine year old. He's a nine year old. Okay. But have a look at his record. He's w he's he's had forty-eight starts, he's won twenty of those. He's a freak. He's placed sixteen times, isn't that correct? Sixteen times. So he's only been out of the placings twelve times in his career. ⁓ I don't think he's any value at that sort of eleven dollar quote. ⁓ he's 294 days between runs. ⁓ he has won this race before. I think he finished second in this race a couple of years ago, or maybe even last year, he finished second to treasure the moment. ⁓ but he's a he's a really good horse. He he's ⁓ 294 days between runs. So they sort of miss the autumn with him and they return in the spring. So this would have been the longest break that he's had for a long time. So maybe he takes a little bit more time to get back to
his top this time around, given the fact that he's a nine-year-old and he returns from probably almost or equal to double ⁓ the gap between runs than he usually does. But He's a very good horse and he's been Imagine if that. Imagine if that's the headline Sunday morning that the nine year old Mr. Brightside's won the Memphis takes at 10 to 1. Well that would be unreal, wouldn't it? I wouldn't fall over. I wouldn't fall over. Yeah, you actually wouldn't, would you? You'd be ch i if if if there was a a a a tussle at the front and it was Mr. Brightside and hopefully the other horse, well, you know, and and the other horse isn't one you've backed, you'd you'd quietly cheering Mr. B. Look at the race. It's it's a good race. Like ⁓ you got Beyvocht, Jimmy Starr, Cosmic Crusade Crusader, Tom Kitten, Angel Capital, Autumn Boy, Treasure of the Moment, Mr. Brightside, Buckaroo. You could make a case for any of those, really. ⁓ Treasure the Moment one you just said didn't treasure the moment one class. Bolton in last year. See, I I have a feeling that we did our horse for the spring after this race. Last year and Nick chose Treasure the Moment. ⁓ I reckon he did it before I reckon I don't reckon he got one win on the ⁓ maybe he did, because we were rolling it over and he did. I reckon he got I reckon he got her. You're right. ⁓ potentially. Do you remember which one yours was? Yeah, it was the horse of Hawksys. Didn't win again. Yeah, I know. I retired him. Yeah, I can't remember the name though. No, he won a group Lest we forget. He won a group one in the autumn and ⁓ yeah, that was just a horrible pick. I think I just was put on the spot and I just picked him. ⁓ they did run him in a cox plate, so he's a pretty good horse. Well, look as you said, there's so many different avenues of that you can look at this. where do you want to start? Well, we give give me some that maybe you should rule out. Like, because like I said, you if you're looking at even like an angel capital, there's lot of people that still believe in angel capital, eight dollars fifty, they're gonna see that as as value. ⁓ Autumn Boy, like did J Mac have ⁓ He could have had the pick of two rides here and he's gone with Autumn Boy. Yeah. So is there what you know that I think it was twelve dollars and firmed up into ten dollars now, into eight dollars since his decision. Is Autumn Boy a bit? Seriously, you could you could make a case for any of these, including a horse like Buckaroo, ⁓ who is big odds, he's $71. But he ran third in this race last year to Treasure the Moment, ⁓ Mr. Brightside, and he was he was really good there. So ⁓ I don't particularly think that he can win, but he could be a a place chance at at huge odds. ⁓ as I said, Mr. Brightside, he's I I I think I'd be inclined to risk him. Treasure the moment she sort of mixes her form. Autumn boy, he's short enough. He was really good last start in that ⁓ that Doncaster behind she's an alibi. Gets J Mack. Good draw. ⁓ he's gonna
be better suited over further as well. Angel Capital, I think he did enough first up. ⁓ he was really well liked by the market. He just simply got back too far, but his work through the line was good, gets up to 1400 meters. He's been a real drifter in the market. I think he would have ⁓ I think he went up at least of around five dollars and he's out to eight dollars. But that's he went up before riders were declared, and then they declared Mellumon Angel Capital and James McDonald on Autumn Boy. So that's why Autumn Boy's been a little bit of a s firm and Angel Capital hasn't been. Cosmic Crusader, given a great ride by ⁓ Pikey last start. He draws awkwardly. Will need another good ride here. ⁓ Jimmy Starr's potentially the best horse in the race. Returns from a a short break. He usually improves into his preparation, but he does ⁓ return here over 1400 meters for the first time in a while. He won an Oakley plate. ⁓ that was the last time that he won first up, but that was eleven hundred meters. He was he was sharper back then, but he was really good last preparation, but he's trialed really well. they they're not going to focus on an Everest with him this time around. So maybe we're about to see the best of Jimmy Starr, but I think that he's he's priced sort of up to his best. Yeah. ⁓ and then you've got a horse Beyvacht. I would tip Beyvacht if if we're on a dry deck. I think the soft seven is against him. He'll go forward, he'll make his own luck on on the speed. He's one two from two over fourteen hundred meters. He's got a last heart win in a group one all age stakes. He's got a a group one win in a golden rose. They're his two peak performances of his career, but they were both on dry decks. So ⁓ are we gonna see the best of him on a soft seven? I I wouldn't be too ⁓ harsh on him given the fact that we haven't seen him too many times on rain affected ground. But I I would suggest that given the fact he's a fast on-speed horse, he's gonna be better suited ⁓ on top of the ground. The one that I think is is a little bit over the odds is Big Tomcat. ⁓ yeah, Tommy Kitten. Tomcat, he's he's a he's a really smart horse. ⁓ like I I I'm not sure why we're getting $19 about him. His last two first up runs over this track and distance have been really good. So he was he was good in a Heffenham stakes over 1400 meters at Caulfield when he he got the better of Feroce. He got to the outside, he was really strong late there. That was first up last preparation off 91 days. And then prior to that, they resumed him in a Macavi Diva stakes. ⁓ We'll put a pen through that, but his l his previous one in a futurity stakes, he should have beat Mr. Bright's side when he was badly held up from a low draw. So his two out of his last three, and those two were over this track and distance, would meet the winning standard of this race. And we're getting eighteen dollars about him. He draws barrier one. Will he have bigger targets in the future? Yes. ⁓ He's a group one
winner on a heavy track. So we know that he's gonna handle the rain effected ground. So yeah, I think at around that nineteen dollar quote, I think he could potentially be the value in the race. Tomcat. Nice. Yeah. Twenty dollar tip. He seemingly likes he seemingly likes this track and grip. And he's sort of he's been he's been priced as a as a a stayer resuming, but he's been he's He's usually fresh enough to run well in races like this. He has he had a little freshen up before the All-Star Mile, didn't he? I mean when they did trail. ⁓ was it not that much? Okay, so just a little just a little freshen up. Yeah. He's an All-Star Mile winner. Yeah, he's a fucking good horse. Very good horse. I love Tom Kitten. Tom Kitten. He's he's my horse. I like that you've tipped him. I reckon I tipped him in a ⁓ I reckon I tipped him potentially in a golden eagle or something. ⁓ I tipped him last year in something. I remember that. At a one. Must have been the all star model, if I'm thinking clearly. Going back to Yeah, I I think I tipped him in a golden eagle. No. Maybe I tipped him in George Ryder. Maybe I tipped him in an Epsom or John Castle. I for some reason I thought Golden Eagle sounded familiar. I I just went for a quick squeeze in his form and I don't think he ran in a golden eagle, but you might have tipped him and he just didn't go. Yeah, maybe. He just didn't go. You just didn't go. ⁓ okay. Bit odds. That's nice. I I I'm I'm with you. I think it's it's it's an open race and I think And I could have egg on my face, but I think Jimmy Starr is ⁓ yes, he did run he ran third in a golden eagle to Lake Forest. What year was that? ⁓ no, not Lake Forest. What ye we the Japanese horse won the year we were there? Yeah. Obem Buramaya. That was ⁓ that was in 2024. Who we back in that? Do you remember? You'll remember. I backed Tom Kinton, I reckon. No, in the Golden Eagle. In that Golden Eagle. I reckon you did. ⁓ that one. Yeah. I backed. Private Eye. No, I backed that. ⁓ mayor that ended up with Annabelle and Rob from ⁓ and she got flattened. Remember? ⁓ Melia Jules. Let's see. I knew it had something to do with a girl. I was gonna say fangirl, but I'm like too obvious. I knew it's like female tendencies. ⁓ all right. Well have you got have you got a best bet for us? We can send out to the punters. Yeah. Who'd you send last week? ⁓ I I I I tip she's alibi, but I tip Bonyface as well. He got the chocolates for us. Are you saying that wrong? ⁓ no, Bonyface is is correct. I think the owner's No, the the owners have come out and said that it's bony bony face. So everybody else has got it wrong. And you've got it wrong. I have got it right. I that's what I was thinking was happening. I assume that was the case. Well, I I've been wrong once or twice, but not that I remember, bud. Fuck no. Thanks. ⁓ yeah, the best bet. Where are we? Let's go to the feature at Rose Hill. Rose Hill race eight. Eight. The Sunda Medical Sticks. Yep. Yep. I'm in the Bjorn Baker camp
here. ⁓ Bray, don't tell me you're covering the mug's homework again. Well, I sent it out on on Tuesday. You sent it Monday. The mailman. It was it was in the you didn't check your post, your mailbox. He sent it out Monday. Who? The mug. Did he? Well, he was complaining about the $2.10. Yeah, I know. That was this morning, wasn't it? $3.70 was good on Monday. It was good. It was good for you. I think she I think she potentially does start O'Zona. I thought she was super first up. I know that Bjorn ⁓ wanted to get two trials into her, but this race, her first up run, it came around a little bit quicker than they expected, I think. ⁓ the rosebud over 1100 meters. So she'd only had one trial under her belt. She cruised into the race and you could see that she just her condition gave over out over that last furlong. So she can strip much fitter for this. She draws one, she'll be making her own luck on the speed. Guest house and war woven are two key. dangers to her. Mm-hmm. Both of them draw her out. Both of them will be giving her a sp start and both of them will be better suited over further. ⁓ and then you've got a horse like Wild Atlantic who he might be very good, but he would have to be very good making his debut in a race like this. Yeah. ⁓ so she's just gonna make her own luck on the speed. ⁓ the rating that she produced first up would go very close to winning this race. And I think she's gonna be really hard to beat. So $2.10, $2.15 available. I think that's fair enough. Yeah, $2.15 at the blue blokes. Yeah, it's a good price. Could be the one that, you know, some of those smaller bookies want to put a price up for. So keep your eye out for one of those. Yeah, maybe. Like a max bet. Yeah, I don't I don't ⁓ they'd be mad. They would be. But they don't have it. They just don't know. They don't know. Guessing. I'll also give you a value bet. Before you're giving us a bit of A. I'll give you another one. What race? Rose Hill race six, number one. She's an artist. She she's an artist. Yep, she's an artist. She is really well placed in this race. First up, last preparation. She got the job done in benchmark 78 grade. This is her first go in Sydney. She's got a really strong SP prof profile. That's based on a win. Early in her career. So she put up a massive figure at her second race start. Yep. It was down the straight. And then she started favorite, long odds on favorite in a black type race. And she just didn't reproduce. She was actually beaten by a horse by the name of Bridal Waltz, who's gone on and won a group three race. She's actually in on Saturday as well. ⁓ and she hasn't been able to get back to that height since. But The ratings that she's been producing, her last five, excluding her one heavy track run, meet the winning standard of this race. She draws perfectly. Two weeks ago, she was saved from a wide drawer. And then last night that she was in the nominations for a group three weight race that Prima Bella won. So the stable have got a an opinion of her. She gets one and a half kilos off her back. With the claim for break knock, she draws absolutely perfectly. I think she's flying. Her trials have been really good. And I think she's ready to win. So I think they've found the right race for her. Street artist is the key danger. He draws negatively. He was really good last time. He went back and he hit the line strongly. He's going to be doing that again, but he draws wide and he draws to get back. So I think she's going to be in front of him in the run, and I think she'll finish in front of him. And I think she should be favorite. So I'm going to play her. Four dollars most places. That's a good price. Yeah. Taking a little better. Yeah. anything else to add? That's about it. I'm keen for next week's potty. Then I feel like after that we can really sync out. And I've obviously I'll be adding nothing. I'm getting stuck in a sort of tonight. I hope so. I need to. It's gonna there's a lot of work to do. Maybe I'll no, I won't give you one. Might have one. Yeah, you just throw the travel. You should do a treble. ⁓ okay. Yeah. Just three maybe like just three main bases. Three where you think it's a little place. I think I had a few of those the year before and nothing. They got close. You just gotta be certain about you just gotta know where they're going. If you're not certain about where they're going, you've got to make sure you're not taking all in markets, you pre non markets. Yeah. So you get your money back. Yeah. We'll see how we go. Where do you get your 'cause we actually get this question a lot, where do you get like you're just ear to the ground? Like listening to the radio, any social media on any trainer that gives you do you ever reach out to the trainers and say sometimes. Not Hilda. Very rarely. Just Hilda. I've seen you reach out to Hilda, but it ends up you just telling him where they should send a horse. You know this Wild Atlantic, ⁓ he's in the San Dominico on Saturday. Yeah. We reached out to a few jockeys and a few trainers last spring. Yeah. No, I think it was the autumn. We reached out in the autumn and ⁓ we asked Tyler Schiller what his horse was and he said Wild Atlantic. That was like a gr the horse to follow this spring. Or this autumn, was it? Autumn. Yeah, and he said Wild Atlantic. Yeah. On your Tyler. Yeah. Well, hopefully not. You know. Well, he might be a Culmore horse. Who knows? Yeah, as long as he's a freaking San Domenico horse, because we're gonna take Blue Door. You'd have to be good. ⁓ All right, Punners, enjoy this weekend. Gamble responsibly and hope you're back a ton of winners. See ya, punis. Bye. What's gambling really costing you for free and confidential support? Call the number on your screen or visit the website.