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Welcome to FedSoc Forums, a Federalist Society podcast. I'm Elizabeth Slattery,
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Vice President of Practice Groups. Be sure to subscribe wherever
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you get your podcasts so you won't miss an episode. Now,
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please enjoy today's conversation.
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to FedSoc Forums. Today, September 24th, 2026,
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we are delighted to host a conversation titled Downstream Effects
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of Louisiana versus Calais. race, redistricting, and representation. My name
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is Lily Schneider, and I am a third year law
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student at the University of Michigan. I also serve as
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a student liaison to the Federalist Society's Civil Rights Practice Group.
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As always, please.
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Note that today, all expression of opinions are those of
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the experts on the call, as the Federalist Society takes
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no position on particular legal or public policy issues. Today,
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we are fortunate to have Michael A. Carvin and Professor
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Jeffrey M. Weiss as our panelists. In his 35 years
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at the Justice Department and in private practice as a
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partner at Jones Day, Mr. Carvin was one of the
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leading appellate and trial lawyers challenging state and federal regulations
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on constitutional and statutory grounds with 10 Supreme Court arguments
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and numerous high-profile victories. In addition to his numerous cases
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at the United States Supreme Court, he argued in virtually
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every federal appeals court. His major cases include the recent
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constitutional challenge to the Affordable Care Act and the decisions
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invalidating Sarbanes-Oxley's accounting board, preventing the Justice Department from obtaining
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monetary relief against the tobacco industry under RICO, overturning the
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federal government's plan to statistically adjust the census, limiting the
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Justice Department's ability to create majority minority districts and upholding
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Proposition 209's ban on racial preferences in California. Professor Weiss
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is a distinguished adjunct professor and senior fellow at New
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York Law School, where he directs the New York Elections, Census,
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and Redistricting Institute and teaches classes on redistricting, election law,
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and the census. He is now working on his sixth
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redistricting cycle, In past years, he served as a redistricting
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counsel to New York State legislative leaders and as counsel
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to three New York City districting commissions and to numerous
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counties and localities across New York and the nation. We
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are pleased to have the Honorable Linda Chavez as our moderator.
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Ms.
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Chavez is chairman of the Center for Equal Opportunity. She
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has published opinions and columns in newspapers across the country
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and appears regularly on cable news. Ms. Chavez is the
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author of three books, Out of the Barrio, Towards a
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New Politics of Hispanic Assimilation, An Unlikely Conservative, The Transformation
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of an Ex-Liberal, and Betrayal. how union bosses shake down
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their members and corrupt American politics. She has been honored
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by the Library of Congress as a living legend and
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as nominee for Secretary of Labor by President George W.
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Bush.
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One note for our audience before we begin, if you
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have any questions throughout the webinar that pertain to the
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topic at hand, please submit them through the Zoom's Q
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& A feature located at the bottom of your screen,
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not the chat, so that we'll be able to access
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them later in the program. On that note, I will
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turn things over to our speakers to start the conversation.
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Ms.
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Chavez, thank you so much for joining us and for
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moderating today's discussion.
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Thank you. And it's an absolute pleasure to be first
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with Michael Carvin, who is a veteran, along with me,
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of the Reagan administration. And he has been an ally
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and colleague for many years. And so it's a pleasure
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to have him here to talk about this important subject.
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And also to Professor Weiss, whom I just learned our
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careers actually cross paths with. in the 1970s when he
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was working for Senator Ted Kennedy. And I was working for,
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this may come as a surprise for some people, Peter
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Rodino and Emanuel Seller in the Judiciary Committee. First of all,
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I want to say, begin this conversation by saying that
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I think most people in the civil rights area regard
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the Voting Rights Act as perhaps the most important civil
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rights law ever passed. But it was also a very
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radical act, even in 1965 when passed. We now have
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the Kalei decision, along with Branovich and others that have
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been handed down over the years, which I really think
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go beyond this subject of voting and really get to
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the question of. How do you define racial discrimination? And
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so the discussion today is going to be about the
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downstream effects of the Kalei decision. And I think that
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we're going to try and stay away from some of
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the minutiae of the Voting Rights Act, although I will
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begin my first question to Michael Carvin with a little
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bit of minutiae. And that has to do with Section
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2 of the Act. Soon after the Act was passed
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in 1965, the Department of Justice decided to extend the
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way in which they interpreted the jurisdiction of the Act
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to not only allow for Blacks to have access to
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the polls, and it was primarily Blacks who were who
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were envisioned by this act, but also to ensure that
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the votes already cast were not diluted. DOJ blocked at-large
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elections and required that districts be drawn in such a
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way as to create safe districts to elect minority candidates.
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And I want, if you can, Mike, just to very
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briefly try to do it in under five minutes, walk
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us through how the 1980 up to amendments to Section
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2 led to an outcomes based standard. And from there,
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how we got to Calais.
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Sure, I'm happy to. In 1982, Congress was concerned with
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a recent decision by the Supreme Court, Mobile v. Bolden.
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which said that you needed to show intentional discrimination to
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violate Section 2. This was a challenge to an at-large
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district which diluted black votes. What they wanted to do
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was create a system where any kind of outcome that
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blacks didn't achieve would be violative of the law.
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But they couldn't say that directly.
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So what they did, frankly, was engage in a bit
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of subterfuge.
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They have this language.
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From the act, which has been studiously ignored until Brnovich
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and Calais, and said, look at the Senate report. The
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Senate report listed like nine factors, all of which reflected
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racial inequalities. And they said, if you can, under the
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totality of circumstances, take those off.
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Then you'll win. Of course, nothing like that's in the
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statutory language.
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This was pointed out to Justice Brennan when he wrote
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the Jingles decision in 1986, and he said, no, we'll
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just do the Senate report. Justice Brennan then invented his
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own test, not even found in the legislative history, called
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the Jingles preconditions, which essentially said, if you could create
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even a marginally compact black district... And blacks, I'm using
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blacks as a shorthand for all minorities. And if blacks
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are losing, then you have to create that district. And
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this went largely unimpeded until we saw Calais. And they
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returned for the first time since after the Brnovich decision,
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they said, well, let's look at the actual statutory language.
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And what the statutory language says is, is blacks are
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entitled to a system that is equally open to them
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where they don't have less opportunity than other groups.
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So it's not a.
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Standard which grants them preferential treatment and certainly not a
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standard that guarantees them any kind of electoral results. It
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just provides an equal opportunity. And that was the linchpin
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of the Calais decision. They said, well, how do we
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know if minorities have been treated worse than other groups,
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have less opportunity? Well, what you do is look at
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traditional districting principles that govern all the districts, and you
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ask yourself, has the minority district been disadvantaged with respect
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to those? And crucially, it said, One of the things
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that legislators typically look at is protecting incumbents and otherwise
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being partisan, helping the dominant party. And in Louisiana, for example,
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they wanted to create the second black majority district, but
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it came at the expense of a Republican incumbent. So
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they would have had to he would have had to
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lose his seat. Well, the Supreme Court quite sensibly said, look,
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no other group would the Republicans sacrifice one of their
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own and throw an incumbent out. So the notion that
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they didn't do it for the black voters hardly suggests
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less opportunity. The other important part of Kelly, and then
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I'll shut up, is not only did they say that
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was based on the statutory language, they said it was
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based on the fact that this is enforcing the 15th Amendment.
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And the 15th Amendment only prohibits intentional discrimination. So Section
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2 can't get at anything that's a pure results test
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or outcome-oriented. It's got to have a strong inference of intelligence. discrimination.
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In other words, they can go a little bit beyond
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the 15th Amendment under the enforcement power, but they have
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to be enforcing what's in the 15th Amendment, not a
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results-oriented effects test, when the 15th amendment is itself a, uh,
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intent test. So under two different ways of looking at it,
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did that, did the legislature depart from traditional districting principles
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in a different way for this district you're complaining about?
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And if they did, there'd usually be a strong inference
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that that was motivated by race. So either way, the
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standard now is have, uh, Black concentrations or minority concentrations
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been treated equally relative to others in the polity, where
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for 40 years the law had been they needed to
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be treated better. And if you could create a district,
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you had to do it. So there's a very important
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change in voting rights law.
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So, Jeff, Justice Kagan, who wrote the dissent in the
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Calais decision, argued that challengers now need to prove not
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only vote dilution, but also a race-based motive. And she
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said that this was going to be nearly impossible. In
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concrete terms, can you tell us what a plaintiff had
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to do before Calais and what they must now do?
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Sure.
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It's a pleasure being with all of you today. It's
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good to see Mike Carvin again. He and I worked
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together on different sides back in the 1990s, so we're
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still around. But Justice Kagan, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson,
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did dissent in Calais, arguing that the Supreme was transforming
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Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act from an effects-based
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protection against racial vote dilution into something approaching an intent-based
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prohibition on intentional discrimination.
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Her objection goes down.
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To the argument that Congress, not the Supreme Court, made
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a policy judgment in 1982 when the Voting Rights Act
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was amended that discriminatory effects rather than discriminatory intent should
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determine Section 2 liability. Justice Kagan contends that the majority
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effectively overruled Congress's choice, weakening the Thornburg v. Jingles criteria
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and made Section 2 dramatically harder to enforce given the
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circumstances under which Congress created Section 2. She argues that
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Kelly essentially retained the Jingles framework, where you have to
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show three things from the Jingles case.
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You've got to show first.
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That the minority community is large enough by population, 50%
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plus minority voting age population. Second, that those voters vote cohesively,
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that their voting patterns are similar. And third, that there's
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a significantly high level of racially polarized voting. And if
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you meet those three factors, then you throw in the
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totality test that Mike talked about, that came out of
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the Senate Judiciary Committee factors, and you can move your
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case forward. The Calais decision retained the basic Jingles framework,
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but substantially modified it so that a Section 2 plaintiff
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must show a strong inference of intentional racial discrimination. They
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have to disentangle race from partisan and other neutral considerations.
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And you have to find that the.
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State's legitimate criteria, including compactness, incumbency protection, contiguity, all the state's.
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Criteria are also met.
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Her objection is that although the majority insists that it
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isn't an express intent requirement, the new structure effectively makes
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a race-based purpose.
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An argument in most cases now. The most useful way.
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To understand Justice Kagan's objection is that the pre-Kelley section
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to vote dilution cases were principally an effects situation. Now,
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after Kelley, the court has added a substantive purpose inquiry,
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which brings us back to the pre-1982 congressional amendments standard
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from the Mobile v.
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Bolden case.
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So, in concrete terms, the basic differences are that before Calais,
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you had to show that a minority group was sufficiently
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large and geographically compact to constitute a majority of voting
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age population in a district. That would still be required,
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but now you have to do much more.
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To also satisfy the state's criteria. Whereas you had to.
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Show political cohesion, that's still a requirement, but now there's
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a new wrinkle. Plaintiffs have to demonstrate that the relevant
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voting patterns persist after controlling for party affiliation, that you
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do the same basic inquiry, but you have to show
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that racial divergence can't be adequately explained by partisan affiliation alone.
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You've got to show the totality of
the circumstances test,
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but now the totality test must focus on present-day intentional
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racial discrimination, that old discrimination and present disparities attributable to
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the continuing effects of discrimination receive substantially less weight.
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And again, there's no need to prove discriminatory intent.
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You've got to show that there's strong inference that the
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state intentionally drew districts to give minority voters an opportunity
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to elect. So put very simply, the standard changes that
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you're creating an intent test really looking for a.
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Smoking gun, which is really very hard to do.
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So they're basically saying that this guts section to the
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Voting Rights Act is effective in the way it's been
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working for the last 40 some odd years.
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You know, Mike, as I read the Calais decision, I
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found some irony involved in terms of the racial block
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voting versus party block voting argument with the GOP now
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on the side of not favoring racial block voting. I'm
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sure you remember that in the late 80s, early 90s
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in particular, the uh, the Republican national committee and, and, uh,
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even the general counsel for the RNC, uh, I believe
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argued in favor, uh, along with the NAACP of, uh,
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these so-called minority safe districts, uh, with the, um, I guess,
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understanding that race and party, at least with respect to
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black voters are almost, uh, synonymous that, you know, at
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various times, as much as 85% of Black voters vote Democratic.
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It's much less true of Hispanics. But if you create
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safe Black districts, what happens is that you get surrounding
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districts that are whiter and more Republican. So I guess
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if you could just speak for a moment about that.
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Why suddenly the shift in the party on this position? And,
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you know, does this have to do with the success
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of the Republican Party in terms of having created these
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majority white districts in areas that are much more safely GOP'd?
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There's always been, and I actively participate in this, so
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I can say a very cynical effort, although, by the
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Republicans to use the Voting Rights Act for political advantage.
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And for the reasons you just articulated, Linda, if you
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used to be.
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30% say black districts, both of which would elect a
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white Democrat. If you put those together, then you've got
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a 60% black district and the adjacent district is wide
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open for Republicans. In fact, I think by 1996, I
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don't think there was a white Democrat in Congress who
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was only, they were only being elected from the majority
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minority districts. So it had a huge political advantage for
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the Republicans, which I'm not going to deny. which makes
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my stand all the more principled that I don't think
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you should do it even though.
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It helps my party. And in terms of racial block voting.
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It never made any sense, the initial decision.
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Even it was recognized in jingles.
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Brennan said, look, if there's a different election result, if
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only blacks were voting, then if whites were voting, you've
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got racial block voting. Well, we all know that 90
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plus percent of blacks vote Democratic. And, you know, almost
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all white communities are 50-50 or 60-40 Republican. So you're
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always going to have this gap. And Justice White, in
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his concurring opinion in Jingles, said, no, that's not the test.
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The test is the one they've now brought back in Calais.
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The test is, are white Democrats doing— are black Democrats doing
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worse than white Democrats? If it just happens to be
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a 60 Republican district, you can't throw that district out
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because of racial block voting. It just reflects the normal.
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We want partisanship, colorblind partisanship to decide these elections. So
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you can't condemn it that way. Amazingly, Brennan didn't get
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White's vote in that, so he was only a plurality
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on racial block voting. I've always thought there was
five
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votes rejecting that view of racial block voting, which is,
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do minorities win? But amazingly, for 40 years, the Supreme
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Court had 15 cases talking about racial block voting and
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never defined what it was until Calais.
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And this will have another important effect because.
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I think particularly these days, There are partisan differences, obviously,
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but I think there's very little racial differences among the electorate.
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The crossover voting you see, what we call crossover voting,
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for Obama and Kamala Harris was no different than really
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any other Democratic nominee. I can walk through state elections
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where that is equally true. So this notion of a
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monolithic white voting bloc defeating black-supported or black candidates is
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no longer true. And in any event, you shouldn't have
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a test that says voting Republican is violative of the
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Voting Rights Act, because that's what the old regime did.
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So Jeff, Justice Jackson and other critics of the decision
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warned that there would be utter chaos that would ensue
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in the wake of this decision. With the midterms literally
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just weeks away, what are you seeing in states and
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what do you expect will happen with respect to the
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Voting Rights Act and this decision before 2028?
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Yeah, the word chaos scares people, especially given the closeness
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of the elections and with what's happening. With mail-in voting,
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with Missouri redistricting, I hate to use the word, but
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there's an awful lot going on that could lead to
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some chaos.
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It's not really hypothetical.
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Since the decision came down in Calais in late April,
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courts have had to revisit existing cases and states have
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been testing the boundaries of the new standard. The Supreme
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Court itself has already vacated and remanded several cases for
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consideration since Calais. We've seen redistricting in states from Texas, Missouri,
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North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee.
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Louisiana, California.
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Voters in Maryland will be taking up a constitutional amendment
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question to rejoin the map there just to eliminate one
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Republican district in November.
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And there's litigation continuing in many of these states.
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We just have to look at Missouri for the clearest
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example of the kind of confusion that we're seeing. The
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state has been fighting over whether to use a new
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congressional map enacted in 2025 or to use the map
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enacted in.
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2022 in November. We're seeing a fight between the.
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Federal courts and the state courts over different doctrines as
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to which map to use.
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While the U.S.
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Supreme Court has stayed use of a 2025 map, using
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the argument that you should not interfere with elections too
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close to Election Day. Another lawsuit was brought just after
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the Supreme Court held that, where a federal court judge
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stayed the use of the 2022 map to require the
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use of the 2025 Jordan map, because that was the
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one voters used to vote in the primary in August.
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And that the case was brought back to the U.S.
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Supreme Court where I think they've got to decide by
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September 28th. And it literally can happen any time on
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the shadow docket that we'll see whether the Supreme Court
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is going to step in again. But we've got the
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state courts holding that there was a referendum by the
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voters whether or not to use the redrawn map. And
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you have the federal court saying, no, use the 2025
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map because it was already used. And this is creating,
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I mean, there's no resolve to it as we speak
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right now. Looking at Alabama, the Supreme Court in 2023 upheld,
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using the traditional Thornburg versus Jingles criteria, an Alabama challenge
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that there was a violation of.
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The Voting Rights Act.
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And that case went through the courts after a remand
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00:24:35.579
and a second majority black district was upheld by the
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Supreme Court only to find that that's now being undone.
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So we were seeing really two tracks now. We see
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challenges to maps drawn after Calais and challenges to older
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maps that courts now have to reconsider because of Calais.
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So I think we're really going to see what goes
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on next depending on the outcome of this November's elections.
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Will the Democrats or Republicans have a how many seat
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majority in Congress? if the Democrats win control and if
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it's just by.
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Two, three, four seats, they've got a further challenge.
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The 2030 census will likely shift population from.
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Blue states to red states. So it might be more
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of an impetus.
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To mid-decade redistrict again before 2028 to make up the
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deficit they might suffer given the projected congressional losses they're
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going to see after 2030.
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If the.
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Republicans can maintain control of the House.
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Then we're going to see the Democrats even ramping up
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the fight even further to try.
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To win more in 2028.
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And we're looking at fights in states over literally one district.
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When you look at Missouri, it's over one district. In Maryland,
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it would be over one district. While in New York,
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the Democrats could have an opportunity of picking up three
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or four districts, that will be a major.
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Advantage for the Democrats. But they've got to go through.
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A constitutional amendment process where a poll showed back in
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June that about 40 percent of the state's voters opposed
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mid-decade districting. And if the Democrats do take over the House,
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I think you're going to see a lot of action,
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at least in the House of Representatives, to revisit the
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Voting Rights Act. and to go back to the standards
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from the 1982 amendments.
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Which required the use of the effects test.
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And if the Democrats win the White House, the Senate,
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and the House after 2028, I think you'll see much
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more action, including a likely ban on partisan gerrymandering at
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the congressional level. You'll see efforts to enact a Voting
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Rights Act number two to go back to the standards
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to the extent they can get around Calais.
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So a lot depends on this November's election. A lot
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depends on what might happen in the Democratic House next year.
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And an awful lot more depends on who wins as
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a Democratic trifecta in 2028. And if the Republicans retain
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either the House, the Senate or the White House, then
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all bets are off on anything impacting 2030. Or I
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think the Republicans would have to step up because of
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just the numbers speaking for themselves in the upcoming census.
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Mike, I want to turn to you sort of as
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a follow-up to that, because obviously elections have consequences, and
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you might see an attempt to change policies. Certainly, the
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re-election of Donald Trump had consequences in this area. We
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did have the Supreme Court decision handed down in Students
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for Fair Admissions, which essentially said racial preferences in college admissions,
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at least, are unconstitutional. You suggested that the Calais decision
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in the Voting Rights Act, that an effect standard that
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basically is going to give racial preference in terms of
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the drawing of district lines might also be unconstitutional. I'm
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not sure, and maybe you can elucidate whether the Calais
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00:28:21.720 --> 00:28:27.440
decision itself went that far, but there are implications in
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other areas as well. We have the Office of Legislative Council,
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which is taken on the whole concept of disparate impact
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theory and employment law and other areas. And so it
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really does come down to a debate, again, about what
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racial discrimination means. Does it have to be intentional? Does
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it have to be explicitly race-based? And Or even if
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Jeff's preferred outcomes come true in terms of an
election,
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00:29:02.500 --> 00:29:05.440
could Congress just simply rewrite the Voting Rights Act and
439
00:29:05.539 --> 00:29:10.440
put something into effect that would basically negate Calais? What
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00:29:10.599 --> 00:29:12.240
is the solution in this area?
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00:29:13.799 --> 00:29:17.039
I don't think they can restore the old regime pre-Calais
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for two reasons, both constitutional. Again, Calais was very explicit
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00:29:22.420 --> 00:29:26.039
about that Congress's only power to affect voting in the
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00:29:26.079 --> 00:29:29.619
racial area is the 15th Amendment. And if you're going
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00:29:29.640 --> 00:29:34.009
to enforce an amendment that only prohibits intentional discrimination, you
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00:29:34.049 --> 00:29:38.869
can't go to this entirely different regime, which requires preferential
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00:29:38.950 --> 00:29:44.039
treatment and quotas. So it would exceed their enforcement power. Now,
448
00:29:44.059 --> 00:29:47.339
wholly apart from that, for example, in the Title VII context,
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00:29:47.400 --> 00:29:51.769
where they might have some ability to impose an effects test,
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00:29:53.079 --> 00:29:57.539
That would violate, in my view, the 14th Amendment quite clearly, right?
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00:29:57.559 --> 00:30:00.559
An effects test is just a fancy name for a quota.
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00:30:01.240 --> 00:30:05.059
A quota says you need to hire or promote consistent
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with the percentage.
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In the local.
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00:30:08.400 --> 00:30:12.890
Community, right? You must hire 25%. An effects test says,
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00:30:13.349 --> 00:30:17.430
if you don't hire 25%, that has a discriminatory effect.
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00:30:17.829 --> 00:30:21.619
It's the same thing. So obviously, an effects test that
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00:30:21.650 --> 00:30:28.380
requires you to engage in this sort of proportional representation through,
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00:30:28.660 --> 00:30:33.339
quite clearly, racial preferences, I think is quite unconstitutional, not
460
00:30:33.400 --> 00:30:36.789
only under the Shaw cases, but the non-voting cases you
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00:30:36.829 --> 00:30:44.089
mentioned that prohibit racial favoritism to non-minorities. So I think
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00:30:44.130 --> 00:30:48.039
Congress is in a constitutional box. I think they'll want to,
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00:30:48.720 --> 00:30:52.480
and it'll be interesting because as I say, as we
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alluded to before, the partisan results of Calais are not
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at all clear to me, because again, majority minority districts
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00:31:00.500 --> 00:31:03.940
used to benefit Republicans. I think in a lot of jurisdictions,
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00:31:03.980 --> 00:31:07.480
they still do. So we'll see really how intent they
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are at resurrecting the majority minority districts. From a political perspective,
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00:31:12.700 --> 00:31:17.710
Democrats want 35% minority districts, because then you don't waste
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00:31:17.769 --> 00:31:21.549
any votes and you elect Democrats. They don't want 50%
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majority minority districts.
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00:31:24.980 --> 00:31:26.680
Jeff, I want to go back to you and ask
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you the question, again, sort of taking a look at
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what the results of this decision are going to be.
475
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What if it turns out that even under the Calais standards,
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00:31:41.000 --> 00:31:44.339
we don't see a diminution in the number of black
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00:31:44.420 --> 00:31:51.980
elected officials? You know, certainly when Proposition 209 was passed
478
00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:56.599
in the state of California last which was basically outlawing
479
00:31:56.640 --> 00:32:00.799
racial preferences in college admissions. Yes, there was a drop
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00:32:01.180 --> 00:32:04.559
in attendance of blacks and Latinos at some of the
481
00:32:04.619 --> 00:32:08.809
flagship schools like Berkeley and UCLA. But in fact, there
482
00:32:08.849 --> 00:32:12.829
was an expansion of those students, not just attending the schools,
483
00:32:12.950 --> 00:32:18.589
but graduating from them at less competitive institutions in the
484
00:32:18.609 --> 00:32:25.059
California system. So what happens if the sky doesn't fall
485
00:32:25.519 --> 00:32:29.000
and you don't see a drop? Will there finally be
486
00:32:29.019 --> 00:32:33.319
a concession that, you know, maybe this effect standard is
487
00:32:33.829 --> 00:32:37.329
not all that it's cracked up to be and things
488
00:32:37.410 --> 00:32:40.170
are not as bad as we thought in terms of
489
00:32:41.269 --> 00:32:44.539
efforts to dilute the black vote?
490
00:32:45.789 --> 00:32:48.039
I think I'll have a better answer for you after
491
00:32:48.059 --> 00:32:50.200
the November election is to see. But what we are
492
00:32:50.640 --> 00:32:54.559
witnessing are efforts by the current black office holders in
493
00:32:54.599 --> 00:33:00.220
Congress running in the districts that were redrawn, especially North Carolina.
494
00:33:00.240 --> 00:33:03.660
I think it's the first district where the district was redrawn.
495
00:33:04.400 --> 00:33:09.329
Eastern North Carolina has been a traditionally democratic stronghold, electing
496
00:33:10.009 --> 00:33:13.410
black representatives to Congress for quite a while.
497
00:33:13.430 --> 00:33:14.849
The district was redrawn.
498
00:33:15.460 --> 00:33:19.059
And the black incumbent is running to win that district
499
00:33:19.140 --> 00:33:24.690
in a now majority white district. So we've seen in Memphis,
500
00:33:24.730 --> 00:33:27.990
the district that was redrawn there in Tennessee had a
501
00:33:28.069 --> 00:33:32.029
white representative in the black district. And not all minority
502
00:33:32.069 --> 00:33:34.950
districts are represented by minority office holders.
503
00:33:35.130 --> 00:33:37.490
And there are some white majority.
504
00:33:37.069 --> 00:33:40.990
Districts that have black elected officials or Hispanic elected officials.
505
00:33:41.049 --> 00:33:44.490
So there's no real one size fits all. ideally would
506
00:33:44.529 --> 00:33:50.089
like to see a colorblind society. But, you know, really, it's.
507
00:33:49.869 --> 00:33:51.109
A two-sided issue here.
508
00:33:51.190 --> 00:33:54.309
In some instances, you do have high levels of racially
509
00:33:54.369 --> 00:34:00.609
polarized voting, where it's almost impossible for a minority preferred
510
00:34:00.670 --> 00:34:05.559
candidate to win. In other places, you have communities electing
511
00:34:05.599 --> 00:34:09.420
minority preferred candidates where they don't control the vote. So
512
00:34:09.500 --> 00:34:13.980
it's really a situation where I like to think back
513
00:34:14.099 --> 00:34:18.489
to the Shelby County versus Holder decision from 2013 that
514
00:34:18.510 --> 00:34:21.469
eliminated the trigger for Section 5 of the Voting Rights
515
00:34:21.530 --> 00:34:27.159
Act where Chief Justice Roberts wrote a much different picture
516
00:34:27.179 --> 00:34:31.219
of what the country looked like than Justice Ginsburg did
517
00:34:31.239 --> 00:34:31.980
in her dissent.
518
00:34:33.900 --> 00:34:35.460
Chief Justice Roberts talked.
519
00:34:35.239 --> 00:34:40.159
About how America has changed dramatically since 1965. This decision
520
00:34:40.199 --> 00:34:44.050
came down in 2013 and that we've seen many, many
521
00:34:44.110 --> 00:34:51.969
more black and Hispanic candidates running for and winning election.
522
00:34:51.989 --> 00:34:57.610
Then we had Justice Ginsburg talking about not throwing away
523
00:34:57.630 --> 00:35:01.940
your umbrella while it's still raining if you're not getting wet. So,
524
00:35:01.960 --> 00:35:05.559
you know, this really really differs district to district, state
525
00:35:05.599 --> 00:35:09.519
to state. But leave it to say that there are
526
00:35:09.579 --> 00:35:12.730
still instances where it's going to be very hard for
527
00:35:12.750 --> 00:35:16.329
a minority for a candidate to win. And we'll have
528
00:35:16.369 --> 00:35:19.010
to just see what the Congress looks like next year
529
00:35:19.050 --> 00:35:20.530
to have a better conclusion on that.
530
00:35:21.820 --> 00:35:25.559
I noticed you used the term, Jeff, minority preferred candidate.
531
00:35:25.599 --> 00:35:28.679
Does that minority preferred candidate have to be a member
532
00:35:28.739 --> 00:35:29.800
of the same minority?
533
00:35:29.820 --> 00:35:33.119
No, it would be very clear on that.
534
00:35:33.320 --> 00:35:35.460
Thank you for asking. I'm very careful as to how
535
00:35:35.519 --> 00:35:36.199
I put it.
536
00:35:37.159 --> 00:35:42.050
The law does not require a minority candidate to run
537
00:35:42.199 --> 00:35:47.619
in and win in a minority election. district that the
538
00:35:47.679 --> 00:35:51.840
Voting Rights Act applies to the
voters, not to the candidates.
539
00:35:52.420 --> 00:35:56.449
This was actually litigated back in New York in the
540
00:35:56.469 --> 00:36:01.530
1980s when a white city council member was redistricted out
541
00:36:01.550 --> 00:36:04.329
of her district because she wasn't black. And she went
542
00:36:04.369 --> 00:36:07.550
to court and won her challenge saying that she need
543
00:36:07.590 --> 00:36:10.159
not be black to win a district. And she did
544
00:36:10.219 --> 00:36:13.219
win her reelection. This goes back now 40 years ago,
545
00:36:13.260 --> 00:36:14.219
but it's set a standard.
546
00:36:16.340 --> 00:36:20.840
Let me throw that to you, Mike. You know, as
547
00:36:21.099 --> 00:36:24.010
long as you have, at least in the black community,
548
00:36:24.190 --> 00:36:32.000
quite a polarized voting pattern that does a minority preferred
549
00:36:32.079 --> 00:36:36.539
candidate wrong. automatically mean a Democrat? I mean, I can think,
550
00:36:36.559 --> 00:36:39.019
you know, you have people like Byron Donalds running for
551
00:36:39.340 --> 00:36:41.960
governor in the state of Florida. He's obviously black. He's
552
00:36:42.000 --> 00:36:47.010
running on the GOP. And Hispanics throw another wrinkle into it.
553
00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:50.239
I wrote a whole book about the way in which
554
00:36:50.320 --> 00:36:56.300
Hispanics are somewhat different in terms of their trajectory into
555
00:36:56.340 --> 00:37:00.030
the American mainstream. So what are your thoughts on that?
556
00:37:01.369 --> 00:37:02.710
Well, Jeff's entirely right.
557
00:37:02.769 --> 00:37:05.630
It's absurd to think that you need to elect a
558
00:37:05.670 --> 00:37:09.059
black candidate for a black district. In fact, your old boss,
559
00:37:09.119 --> 00:37:11.840
I didn't realize you worked for Rodino, he came from
560
00:37:11.880 --> 00:37:16.159
a district of very high minority population. There have been
561
00:37:16.199 --> 00:37:19.590
other examples. I think there's one in Tennessee now where
562
00:37:19.630 --> 00:37:24.349
that happens. As a general matter, Voters are just taking
563
00:37:24.530 --> 00:37:27.400
much less account of race than they did when the
564
00:37:27.440 --> 00:37:30.500
Voting Rights Act was amended. Again, we can look at
565
00:37:30.559 --> 00:37:33.980
the national scene and Obama got support in all kinds
566
00:37:34.039 --> 00:37:36.570
of states, even Harris did, who was, I thought, quite
567
00:37:36.590 --> 00:37:37.769
a weak candidate there.
568
00:37:38.090 --> 00:37:39.550
And we see it all over.
569
00:37:40.010 --> 00:37:45.050
So I don't think these apocalyptic concerns about diminishing minority
570
00:37:45.110 --> 00:37:48.320
representation are probably going to come true. I think there's
571
00:37:48.340 --> 00:37:51.320
a couple other practical points, too, which is, as I've
572
00:37:51.340 --> 00:37:53.539
alluded to, I don't know that the Republicans will have
573
00:37:53.619
--> 00:38:00.510
much incentive to systematically dismantle majority minority districts because generally
574
00:38:00.570 --> 00:38:05.210
they like the status quo. They like siphoning off non-Republican voters.
575
00:38:06.050 --> 00:38:09.250
into those districts. And let's face it, there's a lot
576
00:38:09.269 --> 00:38:13.980
of problems with majority minority districts. If they are perceived,
577
00:38:14.539 --> 00:38:17.980
if you are perceived as a, quote, minority candidate, you're
578
00:38:18.000 --> 00:38:21.039
probably going to have a tough time getting more mainstream,
579
00:38:21.199 --> 00:38:25.139
wide open support. Barack Obama lost a primary to run
580
00:38:25.159 --> 00:38:30.489
in a predominantly black district for Congress. And it was
581
00:38:30.530 --> 00:38:33.210
very helpful to him that he lost that primary because
582
00:38:33.250 --> 00:38:36.039
if he'd won, he would have been stuck in, you know,
583
00:38:36.079 --> 00:38:39.260
what is sort of a legislative ghetto of being from
584
00:38:39.320 --> 00:38:42.840
a black district and being a black representative. Whereas he
585
00:38:42.880 --> 00:38:46.210
was forced out of that and started making bridges and
586
00:38:46.369 --> 00:38:51.309
creating a broader coalition. So even from the Democrats' perspective
587
00:38:51.349 --> 00:38:56.469
and even from the minority Democrats' perspective, these majority minority
588
00:38:56.510 --> 00:39:00.219
districts have always been a two-way street. And I think
589
00:39:00.239 --> 00:39:03.480
we'll see that these sort of the sky is falling
590
00:39:03.519 --> 00:39:05.320
predictions really won't bear out.
591
00:39:07.219 --> 00:39:13.559
Okay. Before I want to open up the Q &
592
00:39:12.860 --> 00:39:16.940
A from the audience, and we have several that have
593
00:39:16.980 --> 00:39:20.320
been submitted and anyone else who wants to ask a question,
594
00:39:20.409 --> 00:39:22.570
get it in there in the Q & A box.
595
00:39:23.670 --> 00:39:26.269
But I'm going to, it doesn't say which of you
596
00:39:27.170 --> 00:39:29.010
they want to answer the question. So I'll let you
597
00:39:29.050 --> 00:39:33.500
both have a chance at it. But one question came
598
00:39:33.940 --> 00:39:37.800
from Andy Jackson, who said, much has been made of
599
00:39:37.880 --> 00:39:41.099
the impact of Calais in the South, but how about
600
00:39:41.159 --> 00:39:45.789
states like Minnesota that specifically use racial data to draw districts?
601
00:39:48.269 --> 00:39:50.590
Go ahead. Go ahead, Mike.
602
00:39:51.949 --> 00:39:55.590
No, they were amazingly blatant about how racially driven these
603
00:39:55.650 --> 00:39:59.940
districts were. Then we had the Shaw cases, as you know,
604
00:40:00.420 --> 00:40:03.159
where if race was your predominant purpose, they could strike
605
00:40:03.219 --> 00:40:06.440
down the district. So just to show you what an
606
00:40:06.800 --> 00:40:10.579
incredibly incompetent
lawyer I was, I told all my clients
607
00:40:10.820 --> 00:40:13.280
when we were in New York with Jeff in the 90s,
608
00:40:13.809 --> 00:40:16.929
draw whatever majority minority districts you want. There's a case
609
00:40:17.010 --> 00:40:19.710
out there. They can be real ugly. Well, then Shaw
610
00:40:19.750 --> 00:40:23.130
comes along and says, no, you can't have race as
611
00:40:23.170 --> 00:40:26.550
your predominant purpose. I would not put any of the
612
00:40:26.610 --> 00:40:30.460
drafters of those plans on the stand to perjure themselves
613
00:40:30.519 --> 00:40:34.039
and say race wasn't the predominant purpose. in these districts
614
00:40:34.119 --> 00:40:39.860
because it inevitably was. And so I think even before Calais,
615
00:40:40.340 --> 00:40:44.460
those kinds of explicitly racially drawn districts would have been
616
00:40:44.500 --> 00:40:50.360
struck down under the Shaw. And now Calais will add
617
00:40:50.400 --> 00:40:52.300
even extra force to those cases.
618
00:40:53.280 --> 00:40:54.940
Do you want to weigh in on this, Jeff?
619
00:40:54.960 --> 00:40:58.730
Yes. Yeah, I mean, states and redistrictors have been faced
620
00:40:58.789 --> 00:41:01.039
with a really tough test for.
621
00:41:00.840 --> 00:41:02.280
A long time now.
622
00:41:02.500 --> 00:41:05.880
How do you achieve compliance with the Voting Rights Act
623
00:41:06.219 --> 00:41:11.610
where you have direct examples, clear as day examples of
624
00:41:12.010 --> 00:41:18.000
racial vote dilution? and remedying those situations by drawing new
625
00:41:18.059 --> 00:41:23.139
districts versus then drawing those districts and then not violating
626
00:41:23.159 --> 00:41:28.809
the 14th Amendment's bar against racial gerrymandering. It's the biggest
627
00:41:28.849 --> 00:41:31.670
question I've been asked. is one of the hardest to answer.
628
00:41:32.250 --> 00:41:36.530
And my answer has generally been that to determine a
629
00:41:36.590 --> 00:41:39.849
Voting Rights Act violation, you have to use race.
630
00:41:40.250 --> 00:41:42.070
It's plain as day.
631
00:41:42.090 --> 00:41:46.429
And that you should determine by having an expert come
632
00:41:46.489 --> 00:41:51.599
in and do all the algorithmic formulas to see is
633
00:41:51.639 --> 00:41:55.260
there racially polarized voting? And if there is, what percent
634
00:41:55.380 --> 00:41:59.860
of the population is needed to elect a minority preferred candidate?
635
00:42:00.460 --> 00:42:02.860
And then if you meet those tests to draw a
636
00:42:02.940 --> 00:42:07.159
district that is reasonably and rationally and objectively.
637
00:42:06.619 --> 00:42:10.139
Compact and meets other kinds of criteria, but.
638
00:42:10.039 --> 00:42:15.460
At least demonstrates the opportunity to elect a minority preferred candidate.
639
00:42:15.960 --> 00:42:19.320
If you go beyond that threshold, then you're going into
640
00:42:19.360 --> 00:42:23.789
the world of racial gerrymandering, wasting minority votes and violating
641
00:42:23.829 --> 00:42:28.000
the Constitution. And the Calais case got us away from
642
00:42:28.039 --> 00:42:32.179
that because there were other political considerations in Louisiana to
643
00:42:32.219 --> 00:42:35.949
protect incumbents that we won't necessarily get into now. But
644
00:42:36.050 --> 00:42:40.570
Calais was really the wrong case to get decided this year.
645
00:42:40.909 --> 00:42:44.550
If my advice had been followed that you've determined how.
646
00:42:44.469 --> 00:42:48.320
Far you have to go to comply at a threshold level,
647
00:42:48.949 --> 00:42:52.300
minimum level with the Voting Rights Act. and not go
648
00:42:52.400 --> 00:42:57.480
overboard to enter into 14th, 15th Amendment no-no land.
649
00:42:58.940 --> 00:43:00.679
We have a... Go ahead. Sure.
650
00:43:00.920 --> 00:43:01.360
Go ahead, Mike.
651
00:43:01.639 --> 00:43:03.000
I'm going to agree with Jeff, so I want to
652
00:43:03.019 --> 00:43:05.420
get in. That was the best advice and the same
653
00:43:05.480 --> 00:43:08.480
dilemma we all had. Section 2 is saying create these districts.
654
00:43:09.000 --> 00:43:12.239
14th Amendment is saying don't create these districts. And we
655
00:43:12.300 --> 00:43:14.860
all threaded the needle the way that Jeff said. But
656
00:43:14.940 --> 00:43:17.340
I don't think Calais allows you to do that anymore.
657
00:43:17.860 --> 00:43:18.800
You have this bizarre.
658
00:43:19.869 --> 00:43:23.300
notion in the Shaw case is that Section 2 provided
659
00:43:23.320 --> 00:43:27.159
a compelling government interest for race-based redistricting, which makes no
660
00:43:27.219 --> 00:43:31.329
sense because obviously a statute is subordinate to the Constitution.
661
00:43:31.409 --> 00:43:35.670
So Section 2 can't override the 14th Amendment. And Calais
662
00:43:35.690 --> 00:43:38.170
dealt with this issue directly. And it said, well, when
663
00:43:38.210 --> 00:43:40.380
we said that, we just meant a Section 2 that
664
00:43:40.409 --> 00:43:44.119
was consistent with the Constitution, not one that goes beyond
665
00:43:44.159 --> 00:43:45.000
the Constitution.
666
00:43:45.400 --> 00:43:46.300
And that gave them.
667
00:43:46.179 --> 00:43:50.360
The opening to talk about why Section 2, properly interpreted,
668
00:43:50.539 --> 00:43:53.679
is the same or roughly the same as the 15th Amendment.
669
00:43:54.199 --> 00:43:57.400
So I don't think you'll have any Section 2 justification anymore.
670
00:43:58.019 --> 00:44:01.679
Because Calais is clear you don't have to create these districts,
671
00:44:02.090 --> 00:44:05.510
so they've eliminated that pressure on you to create these districts,
672
00:44:05.969 --> 00:44:10.610
plus which they've made clear even if you misinterpret Section 2,
673
00:44:10.610 --> 00:44:12.929
it's not going to be an excuse under the 14th
674
00:44:12.969 --> 00:44:17.079
Amendment challenge to the race-based
district. Again, I think the
675
00:44:17.139 --> 00:44:20.900
practicalities of these might dictate a lot of this.
676
00:44:21.420 --> 00:44:22.900
I don't know that there's going to be a lot.
677
00:44:23.420 --> 00:44:26.019
I don't think they're going to create new majority minority
678
00:44:26.039 --> 00:44:28.679
districts under Calais, but I don't know that they're going
679
00:44:28.699 --> 00:44:33.050
to go back and revisit it. Black and Hispanic incumbents
680
00:44:33.090 --> 00:44:33.329
have a.
681
00:44:33.329 --> 00:44:37.630
Lot of power. You don't want to needlessly alienate their constituencies.
682
00:44:38.250 --> 00:44:41.670
And generally, Republicans in most of these states are pretty
683
00:44:41.750 --> 00:44:44.840
happy with the results of the map. So as Jeff
684
00:44:44.880 --> 00:44:47.980
mentioned earlier, you might be talking about one or two districts,
685
00:44:48.019 --> 00:44:51.159
but you're not talking about sort of a wholesale revision
686
00:44:51.590 --> 00:44:52.090
of a plan.
687
00:44:53.800 --> 00:44:56.760
I've got a very long question and a very detailed one,
688
00:44:56.820 --> 00:45:01.760
which I'm going to read, that was submitted by one
689
00:45:01.800 --> 00:45:06.809
of our attendees, an anonymous attendee. Can you focus on
690
00:45:06.849 --> 00:45:14.010
the majority's requirement that plaintiffs must simultaneously, A, meet the
691
00:45:14.050 --> 00:45:17.969
burden of demonstrating that a map could include an additional
692
00:45:18.070 --> 00:45:25.869
performing minority district, and B, create that demonstrative map without
693
00:45:25.969 --> 00:45:29.389
considering race the same way that a state would? And
694
00:45:29.449 --> 00:45:34.199
does that make any sense when 14A' s restriction prevents governments
695
00:45:34.239 --> 00:45:40.219
from considering race and plaintiffs are notoriously not states? How
696
00:45:40.280 --> 00:45:44.570
could the plaintiff ever prove the possibility of doing something
697
00:45:44.619 --> 00:45:45.769
they cannot consider?
698
00:45:47.889 --> 00:45:51.789
Yeah, I think he may be overly literalistic in his interpretation.
699
00:45:52.429 --> 00:45:55.230
The key point is plaintiffs are not states. So if
700
00:45:55.269 --> 00:45:58.210
you have a motivated minority group, they can say, look,
701
00:45:58.250 --> 00:46:00.409
we should have had a district here. And if you
702
00:46:00.449 --> 00:46:03.369
had applied the same criteria that you'd applied to the
703
00:46:03.409 --> 00:46:06.570
rest of the state, you would have created this district.
704
00:46:07.190 --> 00:46:13.099
That's a very daunting standard because legislatures typically don't treat
705
00:46:13.139 --> 00:46:16.840
minority concentrations worse. For 40 years, they've been treating them
706
00:46:16.940 --> 00:46:21.139
much better. So all that's being eliminated from the plaintiff's
707
00:46:21.639 --> 00:46:25.380
handbook is saying, look, you can create this district. Sure,
708
00:46:25.440 --> 00:46:28.980
it's not compact, and sure, you have to ignore incumbency,
709
00:46:29.019 --> 00:46:32.099
and sure, it's bad for the dominant party, but you
710
00:46:32.119 --> 00:46:35.300
need to go ahead and do it anyway. Now, they've
711
00:46:35.340 --> 00:46:38.119
got to come in and say something like, here's a
712
00:46:38.179 --> 00:46:41.519
district that's out there that doesn't hurt you politically, that
713
00:46:41.900 --> 00:46:44.429
satisfies your other traditional districting principles.
714
00:46:44.949 --> 00:46:45.550
I think that's a.
715
00:46:45.650 --> 00:46:50.969
Very thin set because in all candor, any majority minority
716
00:46:51.010 --> 00:46:54.099
districts that could have been created after what the Justice
717
00:46:54.139 --> 00:46:56.360
Department and the courts were forcing people to do in
718
00:46:56.380 --> 00:47:00.250
the 90s and the zeros and the tens, they're already there.
719
00:47:00.789 --> 00:47:03.949
So the notion that there's some new magical districts out
720
00:47:04.010 --> 00:47:08.239
there outside of, I guess, Alabama and Louisiana is not true.
721
00:47:08.519 --> 00:47:10.650
I mean, I litigated the Alabama case in the 90s,
722
00:47:10.760 --> 00:47:13.389
and it was the same issue. Should we create two
723
00:47:13.449 --> 00:47:18.010
or one black district? So I don't think there's anything
724
00:47:18.090 --> 00:47:23.150
new out have a dilemma, but it's not the dilemma
725
00:47:23.210 --> 00:47:27.070
the question goes to. You can always say this complies
726
00:47:27.090 --> 00:47:31.030
with your principles if you can come up with that district.
727
00:47:31.190 --> 00:47:32.630
I think the tough thing is going to be coming
728
00:47:32.670 --> 00:47:33.489
up with that district.
729
00:47:34.630 --> 00:47:36.429
You might be able to show that there's a district
730
00:47:36.469 --> 00:47:39.909
that's currently electing a minority candidate, him or herself, that
731
00:47:39.949 --> 00:47:43.090
might be majority white, that will elect that person for
732
00:47:43.110 --> 00:47:46.340
the time being. But once that person leaves, the district
733
00:47:46.400 --> 00:47:51.150
might not be seen as a minority held district. You know,
734
00:47:51.250 --> 00:47:53.590
it's a hard thing to really focus in on, but
735
00:47:54.190 --> 00:47:56.889
a lot of it might be personality driven, situation and
736
00:47:56.929 --> 00:48:00.789
circumstance driven, depending on how the voting patterns are in
737
00:48:00.829 --> 00:48:03.829
a given state. So much changes state to state, year
738
00:48:03.849 --> 00:48:04.219
to year now.
739
00:48:06.590 --> 00:48:10.289
We have a final question. Should every state after an
740
00:48:10.369 --> 00:48:15.969
election create their own redistricting laws accordingly by their own census?
741
00:48:16.030 --> 00:48:19.150
I'm not quite sure what they mean by their own census.
742
00:48:19.230 -->
00:48:23.070
I'm assuming they mean by the numbers in the official census.
743
00:48:23.150 --> 00:48:26.050
But that raises a bigger question since we're talking about
744
00:48:26.130 --> 00:48:31.079
downstream effects. And since clearly there was an imprimatur for
745
00:48:31.139 --> 00:48:37.550
being able to redistrict on partisan basis implied in this decision,
746
00:48:39.340 --> 00:48:44.360
Are we in a better place in terms of the
747
00:48:44.440 --> 00:48:47.599
scheme of the Constitution and the way we set up
748
00:48:47.679 --> 00:48:53.849
elections to have redistricting take place more than once every
749
00:48:53.849 --> 00:48:59.250
10 years? At what point does this become almost nonsensical
750
00:49:00.130 --> 00:49:03.949
and comical that we have every election you get a
751
00:49:04.010 --> 00:49:06.929
new map? I'll let you answer that first, Mike.
752
00:49:08.510 --> 00:49:12.260
Oh, I'm going to echo, I think, well, Jeff walked
753
00:49:12.280 --> 00:49:14.539
through all the problems that have been created. And I
754
00:49:14.579 --> 00:49:16.619
think they're less of Calais than I think there is
755
00:49:16.679 --> 00:49:22.670
just this newfound desire to engage in mid redistricting. And look,
756
00:49:22.969 --> 00:49:25.829
I guess Texas was pretty naked about it. They had
757
00:49:25.869 --> 00:49:28.590
a partisan intent. But then you had bizarre. I mean,
758
00:49:28.949 --> 00:49:31.969
California is like, no, we're going to wipe every Republican
759
00:49:32.070 --> 00:49:35.900
off the map. Illinois is, well, we've got two Republicans left.
760
00:49:35.920 --> 00:49:39.219
We're going to destroy them. Maryland's got one. They want
761
00:49:39.239 --> 00:49:43.940
to go take him out. Massachusetts has zero. So when
762
00:49:43.980 --> 00:49:47.280
I hear about all these Republican gerrymanders, I sort of giggle.
763
00:49:47.539 --> 00:49:50.219
New York, as Jeff points out, wants to do it
764
00:49:50.280 --> 00:49:54.610
as well. So do I think there's a good reason
765
00:49:54.630 --> 00:49:58.929
to do it? I generally think mid-decade redistricting is a
766
00:49:58.949 --> 00:50:03.710
bad idea with the caveat that sometimes the initial redistricting
767
00:50:03.750 --> 00:50:07.309
gets so involved in all this torturous litigation that always
768
00:50:07.369 --> 00:50:11.630
accompanies redistricting. You really don't have things settled till, say,
769
00:50:11.710 --> 00:50:13.090
four years into the decade.
770
00:50:13.510 --> 00:50:15.130
But other than that, no.
771
00:50:16.250 --> 00:50:20.579
I'm, you know, I'll argue differently if my clients got sued.
772
00:50:20.639 --> 00:50:23.719
But no, generally, there's no good reason to keep doing this.
773
00:50:24.179 --> 00:50:27.099
And as you've seen this cycle, it just leads to
774
00:50:27.139 --> 00:50:31.090
retaliation in other states. So it has this spiraling effect
775
00:50:31.530 --> 00:50:34.389
where nobody has any certainty
about their districts.
776
00:50:35.360 --> 00:50:39.110
And generally, I'll just add in 1964, Chief Justice Earl
777
00:50:39.139 --> 00:50:42.929
Warren in the decision Reynolds versus Sims, which first started
778
00:50:42.969 --> 00:50:47.280
spelling out how you actually draw districts, what federal standards are.
779
00:50:47.530 --> 00:50:51.190
This is all following the 1962 Baker versus Carr decision
780
00:50:51.210 --> 00:50:55.409
that said these are actually justiciable challenges to bring to court.
781
00:50:56.389 --> 00:51:01.949
The chief justice said that it's reasonable to redraw these district.
782
00:51:01.610 --> 00:51:03.159
Lines once every 10 years.
783
00:51:04.010 --> 00:51:07.599
That even though the population changes the day after the census,
784
00:51:08.139 --> 00:51:11.380
this snapshot of the population is good enough for a decade.
785
00:51:11.400 --> 00:51:15.750
And it wasn't until after 2000, when the Republicans took
786
00:51:15.829 --> 00:51:19.989
over the Texas legislature, where then-majority leader Tom DeLay thought,
787
00:51:20.349 --> 00:51:24.130
Let's redraw the congressional map because we can win more seats.
788
00:51:24.780 --> 00:51:27.099
And that, of course, got litigated. I think it was.
789
00:51:27.039 --> 00:51:30.659
Justice Scalia who opined that there's no federal bar to
790
00:51:30.719 --> 00:51:34.940
mid-decade congressional districting. And not that many states took up
791
00:51:35.000 --> 00:51:41.710
the challenge in the 2000s. And state constitutions that indicate
792
00:51:41.750 --> 00:51:44.929
you can only redistrict once per decade shall do it
793
00:51:45.050 --> 00:51:49.070
once per decade. But then you have Donald Trump calling
794
00:51:49.380 --> 00:51:52.780
Greg Abbott and saying, give me five more districts. And
795
00:51:52.800 --> 00:51:56.440
it's all falling apart for nothing more than partisan gain.
796
00:51:56.880 --> 00:52:02.090
And Democratic states, Republican states alike now have unleashed this fear.
797
00:52:03.460 --> 00:52:08.239
war down to the single districts to win control. And,
798
00:52:08.260 --> 00:52:12.429
you know, Maryland's Democratic leaders were opposed. The Senate president
799
00:52:12.449 --> 00:52:17.550
was opposed to mid-decade districting. He thought legally, rationally, sensibly,
800
00:52:17.570 --> 00:52:21.309
you know, not to do it. But then pressure writing
801
00:52:21.349 --> 00:52:24.230
on the wall that that state eliminated two seats there
802
00:52:24.250 --> 00:52:25.989
and two states there that have nothing left to do
803
00:52:26.030 --> 00:52:29.070
but to eliminate one state here. I think by 2028,
804
00:52:29.070 --> 00:52:32.750
we'll have eliminated or sought to eliminate so many One
805
00:52:32.789 --> 00:52:35.050
state differences.
806
00:52:34.869 --> 00:52:36.030
That will be in 2030.
807
00:52:36.030 --> 00:52:40.159
And this could all repeat itself over again because, you know,
808
00:52:40.179 --> 00:52:43.659
there's no bar to it unless state constitutions don't allow
809
00:52:43.699 --> 00:52:47.159
you to. If that happens, you amend your constitution. That's
810
00:52:47.179 --> 00:52:50.599
what we saw happen in California. It could happen in Maryland.
811
00:52:50.659 --> 00:52:52.699
It could happen in New York. It tried to happen
812
00:52:52.739 --> 00:52:56.619
in Virginia. And the courts stopped it on the technicality.
813
00:52:56.639 --> 00:52:59.199
And this is not what Mike and I ever thought
814
00:52:59.219 --> 00:53:01.000
we'd be getting into 30, 40 years later in our careers.
815
00:53:03.159 --> 00:53:05.920
But it's very good for redistricting lawyers because now it's
816
00:53:05.940 --> 00:53:06.480
a decade.
817
00:53:06.500 --> 00:53:09.079
People would see me this time of decade and say,
818
00:53:09.159 --> 00:53:09.960
why are you here?
819
00:53:10.019 --> 00:53:12.440
Like, what year is it? And now it's like, oh,
820
00:53:12.780 --> 00:53:15.480
you're back. Thank God you're here. We need you so badly.
821
00:53:15.960 --> 00:53:16.500
Yeah, right.
822
00:53:16.539 --> 00:53:19.139
Well, I will say, guys, you may be out of
823
00:53:19.659 --> 00:53:23.570
work soon anyway because AI could do this a lot
824
00:53:23.730 --> 00:53:26.349
quicker and probably more efficiently.
825
00:53:26.429 --> 00:53:27.590
We're dealing with that too.
826
00:53:28.170 --> 00:53:33.130
There's something called ensemble redistricting where mathematicians who've entered the
827
00:53:33.170 --> 00:53:37.349
redistricting world about five, six years ago run thousands of maps,
828
00:53:37.389 --> 00:53:38.889
but they have to give it to the lawyers to
829
00:53:38.969 --> 00:53:40.110
argue pro or con.
830
00:53:40.989 --> 00:53:46.340
That's true. Mike, any last thoughts before I turn this
831
00:53:46.440 --> 00:53:47.239
back to Lily?
832
00:53:50.630 --> 00:53:54.630
No, other than to say, I know this decision has
833
00:53:54.690 --> 00:53:57.510
engendered a lot of criticism, but I really think it's
834
00:53:57.530 --> 00:54:04.510
a very hopeful step in American society. In 2026, it's
835
00:54:04.510 --> 00:54:10.090
70 years, 72 years since Brown, 60 years since the
836
00:54:10.449 --> 00:54:11.309
Civil Rights Act.
837
00:54:11.909 --> 00:54:14.130
At some point, we really have.
838
00:54:13.900 --> 00:54:19.019
To stop making important decisions about who represents us, who
839
00:54:19.039 --> 00:54:22.860
gets into college, et cetera, based on skin color. And
840
00:54:22.900 --> 00:54:26.559
I think we've grown well past that. I think continuing
841
00:54:26.599 --> 00:54:31.659
to inject race into these questions is really injecting racism
842
00:54:31.699 --> 00:54:34.230
into where there is none to begin with. And I
843
00:54:34.289 --> 00:54:39.309
think we've seen all the polarized rhetoric that goes around this,
844
00:54:39.590 --> 00:54:42.679
which I think is very destructive to American society. So
845
00:54:42.699 --> 00:54:43.429
I think any.
846
00:54:43.260 --> 00:54:46.440
Steps the Supreme Court takes towards making.
847
00:54:46.099 --> 00:54:50.820
A society where race is no longer relevant is extraordinarily helpful.
848
00:54:50.860 --> 00:54:52.400
And I think that's what Kelly did.
849
00:54:53.630 --> 00:54:55.530
I assume, Jeff, you have a counter view.
850
00:54:55.969 --> 00:54:57.650
Well, I'll just add to it that I think we
851
00:54:57.730 --> 00:55:00.190
have come a very long way since 1965.
852
00:55:00.190 --> 00:55:01.969
You know, I show my law.
853
00:55:01.829 --> 00:55:08.780
School classes the voter application forms used in Mississippi in 1955,
854
00:55:08.780 --> 00:55:11.639
asking questions that are just leading them to want to
855
00:55:11.679 --> 00:55:14.280
know who's your minister, who's your employer, because if you
856
00:55:14.320 --> 00:55:16.519
try to register to vote and you're black, we want
857
00:55:16.539 --> 00:55:18.920
to get you fired. and get your minister out of
858
00:55:18.960 --> 00:55:21.360
town and all sorts of horrible things. We've come a
859
00:55:21.400 --> 00:55:24.750
long way from that point, but we're not totally there yet.
860
00:55:25.210 --> 00:55:26.769
And to the extent that there still.
861
00:55:26.969 --> 00:55:31.659
Is racial discrimination and polarized voting, there's still a need
862
00:55:31.960 --> 00:55:35.820
at some level of having voting protections for minority Americans.
863
00:55:37.070 --> 00:55:39.829
Well, we've had, I think, a very fruitful discussion. We've
864
00:55:39.869 --> 00:55:42.670
covered a lot of territory, and I want to thank
865
00:55:42.769 --> 00:55:47.989
both Mike Carvin and Jeff Weiss for participating, and I
866
00:55:48.610 --> 00:55:51.489
will turn it back now to Lily. Thank you so much.
867
00:55:52.230 --> 00:55:54.670
On behalf of the Federalist Society, I want to thank
868
00:55:54.750 --> 00:55:57.610
our experts for the benefit of their valuable time and
869
00:55:57.690 --> 00:56:00.469
expertise today. And I want to thank our audience for
870
00:56:00.510 --> 00:56:04.750
joining and participating. We also welcome listener feedback by email
871
00:56:04.889 --> 00:56:09.510
at fedsocforums at fedsoc.org. As always, keep an eye out
872
00:56:09.650 --> 00:56:12.909
on our website and your emails for announcements about upcoming
873
00:56:12.949 --> 00:56:15.639
virtual events. Thank you all for joining us today.
874
00:56:15.840 --> 00:56:16.659
We are adjourned.
875
00:56:17.840 --> 00:56:21.599
Thanks for listening to FedSoc Forums, a Federalist Society podcast.
876
00:56:22.000 --> 00:56:24.519
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877
00:56:24.559 --> 00:56:28.730
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