00:00:10
Speaker 1: Here comes the hook. Down and in. 20 strikeouts.
00:00:15
Speaker 2: He ties the Major League record.
00:00:19
Speaker 1: Breeze hits it in the air to center. We will see.
00:00:23
Speaker 3: You tomorrow night.
00:00:25
Speaker 1: The impossible has happened.
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Goal! Big fly on Tyson.
00:00:31
Speaker 1: Towards the corner. It's back.
00:00:34
Speaker 3: It's gone.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Welcome to Slam Diego.
00:00:39
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Just Baseball Show. It is Tuesday, October 13th. That's Jack McMullen. I'm Peter Appel, and we are here to recap Guardians vs. Rays, ALCS Game 2, Rays up 3-1. The series is tied, and we're heading back to Cleveland. And then at the tail end of the episode, Jack and I are going to give our predictions for NLCS Game 3. between the Brewers and the Dodgers. The Shohei plan? Damn right he is. We're going to talk about it, and it's all brought to you by BetMGM. Every pitch matters in the MLB postseason, Jack. Every single one. And BetMGM is making same-game parlays even more exciting. Build an eligible same-game parlay featuring your favorite picks from one postseason matchup. Then apply your MLB Parlay SGP Boost Token to boost your potential payout. All you got to do, open the BetMGM app, claim your token, and make every inning count. And if you're new to BetMGM, remember to use promo code JUSTBASEBALL because if your first pick loses... Jack, you're going to get it all back in bonus bets up to 1500 bucks. Okay. We got a baseball game. And I always felt like the way that guardians raise is going to be decided is who blinks first. And unfortunately, Jose Ramirez blinked first error runs, raise bullpen comes in. Freddie fastballs is so back. And again, we're tied one, one heading back to Cleveland.
00:02:11
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone's ever called him Freddy Fastballs before. I think it's the other word first.
00:02:16
Speaker 2: We were talking about it at the Discord, and it's late at night. Just give me a break here. I'm seeing 98-mile-an-hour rise balls. I'm coming up with my own nicknames.
00:02:25
Speaker 3: We need a nickname for Freddy Peralta in that heater, man. It's got to be something like... What's wrong with Freddy Fastballs?
00:02:32
Speaker 1: Because I think the other one was already taken. I just don't think you need.
00:02:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think that's been the thing that's been around for six years.
00:02:40
Speaker 2: But Freddy Fastballs, you know what? We're baseball thought leaders. We could turn around Freddy Fastballs or Fastball Freddy. I don't even remember anymore, but we could start one of them. We have to get behind it. We have to get behind it. You can't just make fun of me off the jump. We have to get behind it. We could start something, but you just don't want to buy in.
00:03:00
Speaker 3: No, I'm not ready to buy in on a different, like, deviation from a nickname that's already been on multiple t-shirts.
00:03:07
Speaker 1: Like, that's the thing.
00:03:08
Speaker 3: If one company ran a t-shirt, I would say we can do the deviation. But, like, 10 companies have already run the t-shirt with Fastball Freddy. So I just don't think the deviation is there for our taking.
00:03:19
Speaker 2: What about Freddy Fuzz?
00:03:21
Speaker 1: I like that. I dig that a lot.
00:03:23
Speaker 2: Freddy Foursome?
00:03:25
Speaker 3: No, that's too niche. I think Freddy Fuzz is sick. Let's just stick with that.
00:03:30
Speaker 2: We'll throw that on a t-shirt.
00:03:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, man.
00:03:34
Speaker 3: Listen, I think that your MGM read was more riveting than this game. And frankly, we were going to run into a couple of games like that in the American League Championship Series because we have the.
00:03:45
Speaker 1: Rays and Guardians squaring off.
00:03:46
Speaker 3: And that's a really hard sell, I think, for some because you won't have the long ball really shine. In game one, we did, right? Pat Bailey and Cedric Mullins got out of the homer column. So that was really cool. But this was just like the well-pitched chess match game. And Peralta was good. And Messick was good. But to your point, J-Ram blinked. And unfortunately, he blinked on a short hop. And the ball was quickly approaching him. And then it just five-holed him. You don't see ALCS games decided by a future Hall of Famer getting five-holed.
00:04:24
Speaker 1: But welcome to Raise Guardians.
00:04:26
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, I hope people don't take what you just said and be like, this podcast is demeaning towards the small market. So what? We're not running a $ 400 million payroll like the Dodgers. And you're shaking your head because I know you and that's not what you meant at all. I think what you meant, now I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think we both came in with the same takeaway from this game is that it wasn't that exciting because what's so exciting and what we were so excited for when turning on Ray's guardians was nearly flawless baseball, where it's that chess match back and forth. It's perfect defense. It's taking that extra base. It's the perfect bullpen decision. But then in the fourth inning, we get a massive error that leads then to eventually the Ray scoring three runs. And then basically nothing then happened afterwards. So we couldn't see the tie game in the eighth. where Kevin Cash goes to that bullpen arm, and then Steven Vogt goes to that bullpen arm, and there's a diving play, and there's the perfect base running. We didn't get any of that. We just got an error early, then Freddie just demolished the Guardians, and then the Rays' bullpen arms came in and just shut the door. So I think that's what you mean rather than, oh, Rays' Guardians is not as popular as Yankees' Dodgers. That's not what you're saying.
00:05:47
Speaker 3: It's not what I'm saying, but I mean, it also like, I don't know.
00:05:52
Speaker 1: I don't think that.
00:05:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think that it needs to be the Yankees and the Dodgers for it to be a series that can be really interesting. I just think the brand of baseball that these two play is going to give us two or three boring games. Now, it could also give us two or three of the most electric games that we have in October because you've got hit collectors galore. But this is how Cleveland wins games. This is how Tampa wins some games, too. Cleveland wins games by beating their opponent 2-1 and making one more fundamental baseball play than their opponent. But they lost this game because of Jose Ramirez's defensive gaps, and Peyton pointed this out in the private chat. I mean, there was another defensive gap there where he didn't go to cover third base. He left it on occupied, and Victor Mesa Jr. went first to third right before that five hole.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: On the air.
00:06:41
Speaker 3: So, like, I mean, we're just talking about defensive miscues deciding an ALCS game. I wish that we could sit here and say, well, this reliever coming on was second and third and one man gone and Kang two guys was the deciding thing or this big Homer in the seventh or this laser of a double in the seventh decided this game because that's like your caveat, your silver lining. But there wasn't really one today. It was three unearned runs against Messick and that's how Tampa scored. And then De Lauder left on left with a double down the line, but it didn't get to a one-run game. So I don't think I was saying anything about teams in particular. I don't think I was saying anything about, I certainly wasn't saying anything about markets, but I'm just saying like brand of baseball, this matchup has the ability to give us some duds of games in the ALCS.
00:07:36
Speaker 1: And that's what happened tonight.
00:07:37
Speaker 2: That makes a lot of sense. Let's recap what happened. I got a little bit of a roundup style for you all. So the game was silent until the 4th. Freddie Fuzz was throwing 98-mile-an-hour rise balls, and Parker Messick was getting his ground balls, turning them into double plays. But then the bottom of the 4th happened, exactly what Jack was just talking about, with two outs. Chandler Simpson hit a high chopper and beat it out because he's got 80-grade speed. And JRAM must have been, what, daydreaming? What was he doing? Because Victor Mesa Jr. took advantage of the situation. and took third on him, and then Ben Williamson hit a grounder to J-Ram, and it snuck through his legs to bring home the game's first run, and then Liam Hicks came up clutch with a two-run single, 3-0 Guardians after the fourth. Now, the Guardians did make some noise in the seventh as Patrick Bailey walked, and then Stephen Kwan ripped a single, and with two outs, Chase DeLauder pumped a double down the line, scoring one, raise up 3-1 after seven, and then the game ended. basically raised bullpen arms came in and shut the door. Also for everybody listening, be sure to be on the lookout. Aram is coming out with a piece soon. He was talking about it again in the best baseball group chat in the world, our discord, which you can find the link in the episode description to join about DeLauder. He was able to talk to some coaches DeLauder himself. It's going to be a really awesome piece. So be on the lookout again on just baseball for arms, new article on chase DeLauder, but yeah, it was kind of, everything that you said already, this game was decided by Jose Ramirez, kind of daydreaming, letting the runner go to third, but really it was decided on the air through his legs, because if he makes that play and De Lauder's double still happens in this new hypothetical world, we're talking about a one, one game. And we're probably not recording again for another 30, 45 minutes, because this game would have gone into extra innings.
00:09:32
Speaker 1: That's the kind.
00:09:34
Speaker 2: Game that we had because Freddy Peralta was just so dominant Parker Messick did his job and we were kind of looking for that good start from Parker Messick he had a wonderful season uh it's a shame that the rookie of the year voting is going to go to Kevin McGonigal because Parker Messick just put up an unbelievable season but he struggled in the playoffs so far there's no doubt about it has been struggling in the playoffs but to give them five solid innings again no earned runs all three runs were unearned struck out three I'm still looking for that dominant that true dominant outing from Parker Messick that we saw plenty of times in the regular season but tonight he was more than serviceable and gave the Guardians all that he.
00:10:16
Speaker 3: Could yep Um, Messick, the weird thing for me is the walk bug now through three starts in the post season, I believe he's walked to eight and that was just not a Messick issue at all in the regular season. Now I'm not going to knock him for two walks issued in five innings. I didn't think the command was an issue tonight. I thought the command was an issue, uh, in the DS, but I don't know, like to your point, there hasn't been a wow outing from a rookie all-star and a guy that's going to finish as the rookie of the year runner-up. I think you would count on him as more of an impact starting pitcher than what he's been in the postseason. But on the other side, Freddie was awesome. And the point that I want to make on the frame where the 300 runs came in against him, the Jose Ramirez error we've already documented, right? It can't happen, and that's really what decided the game, and that was the first 100 run. But this is how the Rays kill you. They make you pay for every mistake. So even after the air and it's nothing Tampa, it still takes a left on left single shot out at 97 from Liam Hicks to play two more.
00:11:25
Speaker 1: And as soon as you.
00:11:27
Speaker 3: Give Tampa a little bit more oxygen in an inning, just a little bit more life, they're going to kill you. And that's why they're the best team in the American League and maybe the second or third best team in Major League Baseball.
00:11:39
Speaker 1: We'll see.
00:11:40
Speaker 2: But.
00:11:41
Speaker 3: Man, I just think that they are ruthless, and it's crazy that they lost the Rasmussen start because I think this team is, to be honest, objectively better than Cleveland, and I think they showed that tonight, that they are objectively better.
00:11:57
Speaker 2: I think that's fair. I picked the Rays in seven, so it's not like I disagree with you. I picked them in five. Did you hear me pick them in five? I did hear you pick them in five, and I get it because you look at what both teams did this entire season. You look at what the Rays did to the Yankees and they are just a steam engine. I picked them too. I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that the guardians play a brand of baseball where you, it's just so hard to get rid of them where they can win that true Rasmussen start where nothing is in their favor coming off a 48 hour turnaround, drew Rasmussen at the trop where the Rays are 55 and 26 this year, won their playoff games at home, you know, everything is pointed in one direction and those are sometimes the games that the guardians win and now they're going back to cleveland and they have a relatively rested gavin williams going up against who griffin jacks they can win that game and then in game four is it going to be nick martinez versus tanner bybee a bullpen game are we sure.
00:13:00
Speaker 3: It's jacks i would have assumed it's williams martinez That's.
00:13:04
Speaker 2: What I heard on the broadcast that they were likely going to go with Jacks, maybe in the bullpen. I could be wrong though, but regardless, I think we're going to get a bullpen game for the Rays and Nick Martinez, and we're going to get Gavin Williams and a bullpen game for Cleveland and Cleveland's bullpen is so good. And if Jose Ramirez is hitting like this, I just, I can agree with you that they're better, but I just disagree with you that the Rays are not going to pick up some games here. And I think we saw evidence of that in game one. And also, I think this is a good comment here. in our YouTube live tough break for J Ram on that hop hitting the lip. Perfectly tough to judge. Yeah, I agree. And they even said it on the broadcast. He's made that play a million times. It just stayed down on him with the turf at the drop. It was a tough one. I also want to answer this one from Joshie one, four, four, five, Joshie. First of all, thank you for joining us. But second, like I don't like this comment at all. Don't think I'll ever understand how someone who truly, truly loves baseball feels as though post season games need to be home run derbies. These teams brand to baseball, blah, blah, blah. did you even listen? Did you even listen to what we said? No, I'm serious. Like we go live because we love the game of baseball and we still enjoyed the game. We're just in other post-season games have been more exciting. We've been excited for all of them. There have been other low scoring games. Did you think that this was the greatest game that you've ever seen? Do you really think that on this podcast, all we care about is home run derbies? After everything that we've said for 1,200 episodes? You think that? Are you kidding?
00:14:37
Speaker 1: From all that we.
00:14:39
Speaker 2: Talk about, from everything that we break down, we're the podcast that just wants home run derbies?
00:14:45
Speaker 1: Listen, man. Don't feel the fire.
00:14:48
Speaker 3: It's 11.09 p.m.
00:14:50
Speaker 1: On a Tuesday. Like, we're live because we love this.
00:14:53
Speaker 2: And yeah, I wanted to talk about this game.
00:14:55
Speaker 3: Ah.
00:14:57
Speaker 1: Can I talk about.
00:14:58
Speaker 2: Freddie Peralta for a second?
00:14:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: Like, frankly, there aren't too many talking points left about this game, and that's why it wasn't a great game. But credit to the Rays for taking care of business in a not great game, and so much of that was because of Freddie Peralta, who ran it up to 99 with his heater today. This guy was ridiculous with his fastball.
00:15:18
Speaker 2: It's incredible what the Rays did to fix Freddie Peralta. Over his final seven starts in the regular season with the Rays, he pitched to an ERA below one. In the postseason so far, guess what his ERA is? You guessed it, under one. He just completed six innings for the first time in the playoffs in his career. And I love what they were saying on the broadcast. Instead of the coaching staff telling him when he came over from the Mets what he's doing wrong, they simply leaned into his strengths, telling him how much they loved his changeup. They now have him working out of the stretch more. His mechanics look more fluid, more repeatable, and now he's throwing these 98 to 99 mile-hour rise balls that are nearly unhittable on their own, but they make his disgusting changeup that much better. He went from a prove-it free agent deal this offseason to one of the best arms in the market who could potentially get a four-year contract I don't know, $ 100 million deal? Maybe not that much, but his market has grown exponentially. Freddie Fuzz is so back, and it's yet another success story for the Tampa Bay Rays. Their ability to just use their little puppet arms in order to change guys. Like, Freddie Peralta is not this 24-year-old that they picked up off the scrap heap. He had an incredible career, and then he just melted, and nobody wanted to give up anything for him. But the Rays said, sure, come over here. We're going to lean into your strengths and look at what he's doing down the stretch for the Rays to put him in this position in the playoffs. And then in this game, I think he could have thrown all fastballs in this one and he would have done totally fine.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: Their changes are so simple, and I don't want anyone to lose that with Tampa.
00:17:15
Speaker 1: And, you know, you.
00:17:16
Speaker 3: Did the puppet arms thing. I thought you were sprinkling the magic pixie dust. You could have gone either way with that gesture that you made on YouTube. Thanks for joining us on YouTube and X, by the way. But, no, man, the changes that Tampa makes to every single guy, they're very, very, quote, unquote, simple.
00:17:38
Speaker 1: And usually there is an oversight.
00:17:40
Speaker 3: And for decades, in a long history of Major League Baseball, some of these tweaks have just been oversights. With Freddie, it was, hey, we're going to change the grip on the changeup a little bit. I know you've made a lot of money and you've won a lot of games with this, but it's not working, so let's try something different.
00:17:56
Speaker 1: And credit to him for being receptive doing that.
00:18:00
Speaker 3: You mentioned the idea that Tampa has, I guess, kind of famously.
00:18:06
Speaker 1: Kept as theirs. which is whatever you do really well, do it all the time.
00:18:13
Speaker 3: Matt Whistler, I want to say his WIS LER, Matt Whistler, he went over to Tampa and he was 90% slider. And this note from our team on Twitter at just BB underscore media, Freddie Peralta's last eight starts dating back to the regular season, six scoreless, six, a one run ball, six, a one run ball, five scoreless, Five and two-thirds one run, five and a third scoreless, four and two-thirds a one-run ball, and six scoreless with 6K. So it has lost 44 and two-thirds innings, including two starts in the postseason.
00:18:46
Speaker 1: It's a 0.81 ERA.
00:18:49
Speaker 3: They get guys over there, and they say, whatever you do awesome, do it more, because we want to see more awesome. And then there are other fixes, like my favorite one And I think it's what makes Kyle Snyder one of the best pitching minds that we've seen in recent memory. The pitching coach for the Rays is Tyler Glassnow, who couldn't throw the ball in the rectangle to save his life in Pittsburgh, gets over to Tampa and he says, dude, stop worrying about the corners. Stop worrying about command. We're going to have our catchers set up right over the heart of the plate and your misses are going to take you to the corners. Your center cut heater that you're trying to throw the miss is going to make it a good pitch. I just think like that is, it's so simple when it's actually put into terms, but it's very hard for teams to see that and articulate it to players. I think Tampa is elite at articulating what needs to change to players and players are willing to be receptive to it take it, and run. They're an organization that are built on people. I've heard Peter Bendix, the president of baseball operations for the Marlins, talk about that all the time. He was like, the thing that made Tampa very successful is not only were they a data-driven organization, they were a people-driven organization. That's what he's trying to do with the Marlins and that's what he succeeded at doing with the Marlins over the last three years. If you make your organization a people-based organization and you give the right people the right resources, they're going to get really freaking good. And sometimes it happens over six years in the minor leagues. Sometimes it happens over two months after the trade deadline for a rental starter like Freddie Peralta.
00:20:28
Speaker 1: Exactly.
00:20:28
Speaker 2: And, you know, the Brewers do it and the Guardians do it as well. I mean, Look at Joe Adele. He's become a much better baseball player ever since, you know, coming over to Cleveland. So, and that's how you can overcome a lack of payroll is the coaching, right? The development, the scouting, the drafting. This is, those are four things that Cleveland, Tampa and Milwaukee do better than just about anybody. And they coach baseball the right way and they just play baseball the right way. And that's what we get in two games. The reason I guess we're a little bit more down on this game is because we don't expect these two teams to make mistakes so early. And then that mistake leads to the only runs in the game.
00:21:19
Speaker 3: And it's important to clarify that we're down on the game. Like we're not down on teams. We're just down on the quality of game that we got.
00:21:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
00:21:28
Speaker 2: So I think it's time to now pick game three. of the NLCS, unless you got anything else on this one.
00:21:34
Speaker 3: No, I mean, just want to circle back to Liam Hicks real, real quick, because that was a six swing left on left for a two run single. And I love Liam Hicks. He is the freaking man. Uh, Tampa has some of my favorite guys in baseball. Liam Hicks is one of my favorites. Ryan Valade is one of my favorite guys in baseball, just a genuinely awesome dude. And then Victor Mesa jr. Is also the man really, really happy for these guys. Um, kind of spreading their wings and succeeding in the freaking ALCS and getting a win in the ALCS.
00:22:04
Speaker 1: I think it's really cool.
00:22:05
Speaker 2: It is really cool. And Liam Hicks, again, going into, you know, this game was hitting like, he was hitting under the Mendoza line. I think it was, I saw 192 against lefties during the regular season and he was struggling so far in the playoffs, right? I think he was hitting 083. And then what does he do against Parker Messick? Smacks two singles, one for two RBIs. coming up in big moments in a spot where, you know, the numbers would say not put in a good spot yet.
00:22:34
Speaker 1: Here we are.
00:22:35
Speaker 2: And that's playoff baseball.
00:22:36
Speaker 1: All right.
00:22:36
Speaker 2: Podcast P before we predict game three of the NLCS, would you mind giving us a whoosh? Game three of the NLCS Dodgers versus the Brewers. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Dodgers and Robert Gasser takes the mound for for the Milwaukee Brewers. So I posted on Twitter, Jack, was it, I think it was a day ago. It was after the game, after watching some of these Otani swings, where I think anybody with two eyeballs that's watched more than one baseball game would say, he looks hurt. These are not the swings that we're used to. You already put together a really good piece on it. You guys have talked about it at length. We don't need to rehash it, but I do want to talk about the new news. And Shoya Otani went to Dave Roberts and said, I am blank. I'm playing. And so there's a part of me, first of all, that tweet was saying, I think Shohei Otani should be on the bench and they should start Josue DiPaola at DH. It's not just some random rookie on your bench. Josue DiPaola puts up at bats where I think you've been in the league for 10 years. He's not afraid of the moment. Clutch walk at the end. I think he'd give the Dodgers a spark in their lineup. One they desperately need. And Shohei Otani is clearly playing hurt. And I said, let me know if I'm overreacting. Now, half the comment section was, yes, you're overreacting. You're an idiot. I hate you. I'm going to whatever. And the other half was, you're not overreacting at all. It's clear. And it was clear to me that Dave Roberts thought about it. But then when Shohei Otani comes to you and says, I'm playing.
00:24:18
Speaker 1: You don't have a choice.
00:24:19
Speaker 2: I'm going to let him play. I mean, we're talking about the greatest of all time. You're going down with the ship with Shohei freaking Otani. Now, what I will say is, Shohei, you better hit. And what I mean by that is, he is basically forcing himself into the lineup. Jack, do you know his numbers off Robert Gasser?
00:24:42
Speaker 3: No.
00:24:43
Speaker 2: He's 0 for 7 with 4 strikeouts.
00:24:45
Speaker 1: Ouch.
00:24:48
Speaker 2: X-Wobb of 182. For anyone who doesn't know what X-Wobb means, doesn't matter. Shitty. So you're forcing yourself into a matchup that hasn't really gone well for you. And now what I will say is a lot of the Dodgers have done really well off Gasser. Kyle Tucker's three for six with a triple and a Homer. Freddie Freeman is two for two with two doubles. Teoscar Hernandez is two for five with a Homer. Andy Pahez is four for five with a double and a Homer. Max Muncy is one for four, but that one hit is a double. Tommy Edmond is two for three. So, theoretically, they should be fine. All I'm saying is Shohei Ohtani better hit. He better hit. Because if the swings look terrible, he even said, he came out in the postgame presser, and I commend him for it.
00:25:40
Speaker 1: He's like, no.
00:25:41
Speaker 2: With the way I've been playing, my symptoms, and Dave Roberts said it's his knees, it's his upper body, everything's not working well. He's like, it has nothing to do with that. It's on me. Okay? Okay. Let's see it. Because if you lose this game and he goes 0-4 or gets a walk, the spotlight is going to be on you. It's already really unfairly on him. Like, people are, some of the takes I'm hearing about Otani are so ridiculous. I mean, people talking about the contract being terrible. You know, people, oh, this is your goat?
00:26:21
Speaker 1: Shut up.
00:26:23
Speaker 2: Yes, he's my goat.
00:26:26
Speaker 3: I think you need a Twitter detox. You're going down the awful rabbit holes, man.
00:26:31
Speaker 2: Maybe I do. Maybe I do. I think it's because when it's football and I'm also in college football circles and in baseball, I'm just constantly making content, so I'm constantly online. I think I'm losing my mind.
00:26:46
Speaker 3: I would recommend Touching Grass. That would be a great route forward um.
00:26:53
Speaker 2: That's a good idea i need to touch some grass you're.
00:26:55
Speaker 3: Right yeah no touch some grass uh otani i'm with you as soon as he tells dave roberts that he's playing all right cool you're playing but yeah to your point you better hit and uh i saw i saw the you know clips and the sound bites from otani's presser and he was effectively saying he feels like it's a swing problem not a health problem and um i thought i thought jake mintz said something solid he was like i after watching every single plate appearance from him this postseason in person, can't say I agree.
00:27:29
Speaker 1: No, I think I'm with you, man.
00:27:30
Speaker 3: Like it's, it's tough watching him on TV, knowing that the injury bug has plagued him for the last six weeks of the regular season. I'm not sure how you can look at this and say, yeah, no, it's a swing mechanics thing. I just, I think he's fully not healthy. So I guess we're going to find out, but Otani is, yes it would be awesome if he stepped up no doubt about that but this is your time freddie and mookie and tucker and and muncie and you know edmund and pajes and whoever the hell else like little all of these guys this is your time will smith like let's let's show up it's not shohei and friends that are trying to win their third world series in a row it's otani and reigning world series mvp yoshinobu yamamoto and the guy that hit the go-ahead home run in will smith like There are so many elite baseball players on this Dodger team that they can pick up the slack for the greatest player we've ever seen with a bum knee.
00:28:31
Speaker 1: They just can't.
00:28:33
Speaker 3: Now, it's really hard against the Brewers, but it's not like you're taking on Mizorowski or Henderson. Gasser's been good. Gasser's not Mizorowski or Henderson. They have to win tomorrow. They have to win tomorrow.
00:28:46
Speaker 2: And bet MGM is pricing them like they have to. Because the Dodgers right now on bet MGM are minus 180 against the Brewers, plus 150. I almost want to bet on the Brewers just out of principle. Brewers should be plus 150 to who? Brewers are phenomenal. Now, with that said, I was like, I wonder how the Brewers do against Blake Snell. Because Blake Snell, what the Brewers do, you know, almost better than anybody, is they don't chase outside the zone.
00:29:14
Speaker 1: And he walked five in the DS. 90 pitches.
00:29:17
Speaker 3: 47 for strikes against atlanta and the ds.
00:29:21
Speaker 2: And i so i was shocked to see that over 73 plate appearances against the brewers current roster we're talking about the guys that are going to be in the lineup tomorrow jack they're hitting a buck 72 with a 40 k rate let's go through a couple of options Jackson Choreo, 0 for 5 with four strikeouts. William Kacharis, 1 for 6 with two strikeouts. Sal Freelick, 0 for 5 with a strikeout. Joey Ortiz, 0 for 3. Jake Bowers, 0 for 3 with two strikeouts. Bryce Terang, 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. Andrew Vaughn, 0 for 5 with a strikeout. The best of them is Gary Sanchez, who's 7 for 23 with five jacks, which is kind of electric. But like Yelich is two for nine. I guess that's the best, but he's also got four strikeouts. So maybe it's something about Blake Snell, but at the same time, he hasn't faced them this season. I don't know. The numbers are telling me the Dodgers should just crush Gasser based on what they've done in the past. And the Brewers are going to get annihilated by Blake Snell. But if you've watched the series, I wouldn't blame you for just not believing in those numbers at all because I just read them and I don't believe them. So I'm, I'm going to pick the Dodgers to win this game simply because no way they go down three.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Oh, right.
00:30:39
Speaker 2: Yeah. But anything we've seen so far, there's nothing to grab onto for taking the Dodgers in this game.
00:30:46
Speaker 1: There's nothing.
00:30:48
Speaker 3: The thing that I will grab onto is the three run loss of seemed a heck of a lot closer than the score would suggest yesterday.
00:30:59
Speaker 2: No, I disagree. I think it should have been a blowout. How did the Dodgers get the runs? Errors.
00:31:04
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, they gritted and grinded their way through it, but I mean, they stuck in it. Like the Dodgers, the threat went away because the Brewer bullpen was unbelievable.
00:31:13
Speaker 1: They went five perfect.
00:31:16
Speaker 2: If Logan Henderson... doesn't throw two balls away and bounce one in front of the plate.
00:31:22
Speaker 1: We're talking about a six run game.
00:31:24
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:31:25
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. It wasn't as close. I, I think the brewers have just flat out dominated them in this series so far.
00:31:32
Speaker 3: I don't think that's, I don't think that's fair after game one, game one was a two one game and the Dodgers had opportunities, but.
00:31:39
Speaker 2: We even said Jacob Mizorowski didn't have his best stuff. Like I, I went on a rant. I was like, if you told me before the game started, if I told you, Jacob Mizorowski wasn't going to have his best stuff, and Tarek Skubal's on the other side. Whole bank account on the Dodgers.
00:31:52
Speaker 1: Guess what?
00:31:53
Speaker 2: Whole bank account gone. Yeah. Like, maybe not dominated. Maybe that's a little bit much. But I thought they pretty much dominated game two, and then they won without playing their best baseball in game one.
00:32:07
Speaker 1: I think they have looked like the better team.
00:32:10
Speaker 3: I think they have been objectively the better team Milwaukee has over the Dodgers.
00:32:14
Speaker 1: But I think that the Dodgers, like, They haven't laid down.
00:32:17
Speaker 3: And we talked about this last night with Fink and Peyton pointed this out. The overwhelming majority of the Dodger losses in the postseason in their hunt for a three-peat have been blowouts. Like they've been non-competitive losses because they just kind of punt the game and they try again the next time.
00:32:35
Speaker 1: They haven't really had an opportunity to do that.
00:32:38
Speaker 3: The closest thing would have been game two. But I mean, I just think I'm not saying, like, hey, two balls bounce differently and it's 2-0 Dodgers, or heck, it's even 1-1.
00:32:51
Speaker 1: I just think that, like, the.
00:32:52
Speaker 3: Dodgers have not totally lied down and given up in the front two games. And to your point, I find it really hard to believe that they fall down 3-0 in this NLCS.
00:33:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the Dodgers, but I hate it. I just feel like the Brewers... I'm thinking to myself, they totally could go down 3-0. The Brewers are playing objectively better baseball than they are. No doubt about it. And if Otani is just killing rallies and they don't get the big home run that they've kind of relied on for their offense so far in the postseason, and the Brewers just take and don't fall for Blake Snell's bait, and they get him out by the fourth inning, And then the Dodgers bullpen comes in for the third time, but the Brewers have seen them a ton already.
00:33:43
Speaker 1: Could get ugly.
00:33:44
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying. I'll pick the Dodgers because I got a ton of money on them to win the World Series. I mean, just like an uncomfortable amount of money on them to win the World Series. So I'm hoping I'll go with the Dodgers, Jack. I'm just letting the people know that I don't actually believe in it.
00:33:59
Speaker 3: I'm picking the Dodgers because they have a two-time Cy Young Award winner starting against Robert Gasser.
00:34:05
Speaker 2: They better win.
00:34:06
Speaker 1: They better win. They better win.
00:34:09
Speaker 2: All right. That'll do it for this episode of the just baseball show. Special shout out to podcast P for brilliant producing. Once again, special shout out to you, everybody who joined, even you, Joshie.
00:34:20
Speaker 1: I love you.
00:34:21
Speaker 2: I'm getting fired up. It's a fired up type of podcast. If you can't handle it, you know, get out, you know, but I appreciate hitting the big red subscribe button, leaving comments. And of course, liking the video is the best way to support. the just baseball show. And if you did enjoy again, listening after the fact on audio five-star reviews, best way to help the show for free. If you want to continue the conversation, keep talking baseball with us and our 1100 members of our discord. You can find the link in the episode description for Jack McClellan. I'm Peter Apple. Guess what we're doing tomorrow. You guessed it live here on YouTube after the games. And with that.
00:34:59
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Here comes the hook. Down and in. 20 strikeouts.
00:00:15
Speaker 2: He ties the Major League record.
00:00:19
Speaker 1: Breeze hits it in the air to center. We will see.
00:00:23
Speaker 3: You tomorrow night.
00:00:25
Speaker 1: The impossible has happened.
00:00:28
Speaker 3: Goal! Big fly on Tyson.
00:00:31
Speaker 1: Towards the corner. It's back.
00:00:34
Speaker 3: It's gone.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Welcome to Slam Diego.
00:00:39
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Just Baseball Show. It is Tuesday, October 13th. That's Jack McMullen. I'm Peter Appel, and we are here to recap Guardians vs. Rays, ALCS Game 2, Rays up 3-1. The series is tied, and we're heading back to Cleveland. And then at the tail end of the episode, Jack and I are going to give our predictions for NLCS Game 3. between the Brewers and the Dodgers. The Shohei plan? Damn right he is. We're going to talk about it, and it's all brought to you by BetMGM. Every pitch matters in the MLB postseason, Jack. Every single one. And BetMGM is making same-game parlays even more exciting. Build an eligible same-game parlay featuring your favorite picks from one postseason matchup. Then apply your MLB Parlay SGP Boost Token to boost your potential payout. All you got to do, open the BetMGM app, claim your token, and make every inning count. And if you're new to BetMGM, remember to use promo code JUSTBASEBALL because if your first pick loses... Jack, you're going to get it all back in bonus bets up to 1500 bucks. Okay. We got a baseball game. And I always felt like the way that guardians raise is going to be decided is who blinks first. And unfortunately, Jose Ramirez blinked first error runs, raise bullpen comes in. Freddie fastballs is so back. And again, we're tied one, one heading back to Cleveland.
00:02:11
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone's ever called him Freddy Fastballs before. I think it's the other word first.
00:02:16
Speaker 2: We were talking about it at the Discord, and it's late at night. Just give me a break here. I'm seeing 98-mile-an-hour rise balls. I'm coming up with my own nicknames.
00:02:25
Speaker 3: We need a nickname for Freddy Peralta in that heater, man. It's got to be something like... What's wrong with Freddy Fastballs?
00:02:32
Speaker 1: Because I think the other one was already taken. I just don't think you need.
00:02:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think that's been the thing that's been around for six years.
00:02:40
Speaker 2: But Freddy Fastballs, you know what? We're baseball thought leaders. We could turn around Freddy Fastballs or Fastball Freddy. I don't even remember anymore, but we could start one of them. We have to get behind it. We have to get behind it. You can't just make fun of me off the jump. We have to get behind it. We could start something, but you just don't want to buy in.
00:03:00
Speaker 3: No, I'm not ready to buy in on a different, like, deviation from a nickname that's already been on multiple t-shirts.
00:03:07
Speaker 1: Like, that's the thing.
00:03:08
Speaker 3: If one company ran a t-shirt, I would say we can do the deviation. But, like, 10 companies have already run the t-shirt with Fastball Freddy. So I just don't think the deviation is there for our taking.
00:03:19
Speaker 2: What about Freddy Fuzz?
00:03:21
Speaker 1: I like that. I dig that a lot.
00:03:23
Speaker 2: Freddy Foursome?
00:03:25
Speaker 3: No, that's too niche. I think Freddy Fuzz is sick. Let's just stick with that.
00:03:30
Speaker 2: We'll throw that on a t-shirt.
00:03:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, man.
00:03:34
Speaker 3: Listen, I think that your MGM read was more riveting than this game. And frankly, we were going to run into a couple of games like that in the American League Championship Series because we have the.
00:03:45
Speaker 1: Rays and Guardians squaring off.
00:03:46
Speaker 3: And that's a really hard sell, I think, for some because you won't have the long ball really shine. In game one, we did, right? Pat Bailey and Cedric Mullins got out of the homer column. So that was really cool. But this was just like the well-pitched chess match game. And Peralta was good. And Messick was good. But to your point, J-Ram blinked. And unfortunately, he blinked on a short hop. And the ball was quickly approaching him. And then it just five-holed him. You don't see ALCS games decided by a future Hall of Famer getting five-holed.
00:04:24
Speaker 1: But welcome to Raise Guardians.
00:04:26
Speaker 2: And I think, you know, I hope people don't take what you just said and be like, this podcast is demeaning towards the small market. So what? We're not running a $ 400 million payroll like the Dodgers. And you're shaking your head because I know you and that's not what you meant at all. I think what you meant, now I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think we both came in with the same takeaway from this game is that it wasn't that exciting because what's so exciting and what we were so excited for when turning on Ray's guardians was nearly flawless baseball, where it's that chess match back and forth. It's perfect defense. It's taking that extra base. It's the perfect bullpen decision. But then in the fourth inning, we get a massive error that leads then to eventually the Ray scoring three runs. And then basically nothing then happened afterwards. So we couldn't see the tie game in the eighth. where Kevin Cash goes to that bullpen arm, and then Steven Vogt goes to that bullpen arm, and there's a diving play, and there's the perfect base running. We didn't get any of that. We just got an error early, then Freddie just demolished the Guardians, and then the Rays' bullpen arms came in and just shut the door. So I think that's what you mean rather than, oh, Rays' Guardians is not as popular as Yankees' Dodgers. That's not what you're saying.
00:05:47
Speaker 3: It's not what I'm saying, but I mean, it also like, I don't know.
00:05:52
Speaker 1: I don't think that.
00:05:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think that it needs to be the Yankees and the Dodgers for it to be a series that can be really interesting. I just think the brand of baseball that these two play is going to give us two or three boring games. Now, it could also give us two or three of the most electric games that we have in October because you've got hit collectors galore. But this is how Cleveland wins games. This is how Tampa wins some games, too. Cleveland wins games by beating their opponent 2-1 and making one more fundamental baseball play than their opponent. But they lost this game because of Jose Ramirez's defensive gaps, and Peyton pointed this out in the private chat. I mean, there was another defensive gap there where he didn't go to cover third base. He left it on occupied, and Victor Mesa Jr. went first to third right before that five hole.
00:06:41
Speaker 1: On the air.
00:06:41
Speaker 3: So, like, I mean, we're just talking about defensive miscues deciding an ALCS game. I wish that we could sit here and say, well, this reliever coming on was second and third and one man gone and Kang two guys was the deciding thing or this big Homer in the seventh or this laser of a double in the seventh decided this game because that's like your caveat, your silver lining. But there wasn't really one today. It was three unearned runs against Messick and that's how Tampa scored. And then De Lauder left on left with a double down the line, but it didn't get to a one-run game. So I don't think I was saying anything about teams in particular. I don't think I was saying anything about, I certainly wasn't saying anything about markets, but I'm just saying like brand of baseball, this matchup has the ability to give us some duds of games in the ALCS.
00:07:36
Speaker 1: And that's what happened tonight.
00:07:37
Speaker 2: That makes a lot of sense. Let's recap what happened. I got a little bit of a roundup style for you all. So the game was silent until the 4th. Freddie Fuzz was throwing 98-mile-an-hour rise balls, and Parker Messick was getting his ground balls, turning them into double plays. But then the bottom of the 4th happened, exactly what Jack was just talking about, with two outs. Chandler Simpson hit a high chopper and beat it out because he's got 80-grade speed. And JRAM must have been, what, daydreaming? What was he doing? Because Victor Mesa Jr. took advantage of the situation. and took third on him, and then Ben Williamson hit a grounder to J-Ram, and it snuck through his legs to bring home the game's first run, and then Liam Hicks came up clutch with a two-run single, 3-0 Guardians after the fourth. Now, the Guardians did make some noise in the seventh as Patrick Bailey walked, and then Stephen Kwan ripped a single, and with two outs, Chase DeLauder pumped a double down the line, scoring one, raise up 3-1 after seven, and then the game ended. basically raised bullpen arms came in and shut the door. Also for everybody listening, be sure to be on the lookout. Aram is coming out with a piece soon. He was talking about it again in the best baseball group chat in the world, our discord, which you can find the link in the episode description to join about DeLauder. He was able to talk to some coaches DeLauder himself. It's going to be a really awesome piece. So be on the lookout again on just baseball for arms, new article on chase DeLauder, but yeah, it was kind of, everything that you said already, this game was decided by Jose Ramirez, kind of daydreaming, letting the runner go to third, but really it was decided on the air through his legs, because if he makes that play and De Lauder's double still happens in this new hypothetical world, we're talking about a one, one game. And we're probably not recording again for another 30, 45 minutes, because this game would have gone into extra innings.
00:09:32
Speaker 1: That's the kind.
00:09:34
Speaker 2: Game that we had because Freddy Peralta was just so dominant Parker Messick did his job and we were kind of looking for that good start from Parker Messick he had a wonderful season uh it's a shame that the rookie of the year voting is going to go to Kevin McGonigal because Parker Messick just put up an unbelievable season but he struggled in the playoffs so far there's no doubt about it has been struggling in the playoffs but to give them five solid innings again no earned runs all three runs were unearned struck out three I'm still looking for that dominant that true dominant outing from Parker Messick that we saw plenty of times in the regular season but tonight he was more than serviceable and gave the Guardians all that he.
00:10:16
Speaker 3: Could yep Um, Messick, the weird thing for me is the walk bug now through three starts in the post season, I believe he's walked to eight and that was just not a Messick issue at all in the regular season. Now I'm not going to knock him for two walks issued in five innings. I didn't think the command was an issue tonight. I thought the command was an issue, uh, in the DS, but I don't know, like to your point, there hasn't been a wow outing from a rookie all-star and a guy that's going to finish as the rookie of the year runner-up. I think you would count on him as more of an impact starting pitcher than what he's been in the postseason. But on the other side, Freddie was awesome. And the point that I want to make on the frame where the 300 runs came in against him, the Jose Ramirez error we've already documented, right? It can't happen, and that's really what decided the game, and that was the first 100 run. But this is how the Rays kill you. They make you pay for every mistake. So even after the air and it's nothing Tampa, it still takes a left on left single shot out at 97 from Liam Hicks to play two more.
00:11:25
Speaker 1: And as soon as you.
00:11:27
Speaker 3: Give Tampa a little bit more oxygen in an inning, just a little bit more life, they're going to kill you. And that's why they're the best team in the American League and maybe the second or third best team in Major League Baseball.
00:11:39
Speaker 1: We'll see.
00:11:40
Speaker 2: But.
00:11:41
Speaker 3: Man, I just think that they are ruthless, and it's crazy that they lost the Rasmussen start because I think this team is, to be honest, objectively better than Cleveland, and I think they showed that tonight, that they are objectively better.
00:11:57
Speaker 2: I think that's fair. I picked the Rays in seven, so it's not like I disagree with you. I picked them in five. Did you hear me pick them in five? I did hear you pick them in five, and I get it because you look at what both teams did this entire season. You look at what the Rays did to the Yankees and they are just a steam engine. I picked them too. I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying that the guardians play a brand of baseball where you, it's just so hard to get rid of them where they can win that true Rasmussen start where nothing is in their favor coming off a 48 hour turnaround, drew Rasmussen at the trop where the Rays are 55 and 26 this year, won their playoff games at home, you know, everything is pointed in one direction and those are sometimes the games that the guardians win and now they're going back to cleveland and they have a relatively rested gavin williams going up against who griffin jacks they can win that game and then in game four is it going to be nick martinez versus tanner bybee a bullpen game are we sure.
00:13:00
Speaker 3: It's jacks i would have assumed it's williams martinez That's.
00:13:04
Speaker 2: What I heard on the broadcast that they were likely going to go with Jacks, maybe in the bullpen. I could be wrong though, but regardless, I think we're going to get a bullpen game for the Rays and Nick Martinez, and we're going to get Gavin Williams and a bullpen game for Cleveland and Cleveland's bullpen is so good. And if Jose Ramirez is hitting like this, I just, I can agree with you that they're better, but I just disagree with you that the Rays are not going to pick up some games here. And I think we saw evidence of that in game one. And also, I think this is a good comment here. in our YouTube live tough break for J Ram on that hop hitting the lip. Perfectly tough to judge. Yeah, I agree. And they even said it on the broadcast. He's made that play a million times. It just stayed down on him with the turf at the drop. It was a tough one. I also want to answer this one from Joshie one, four, four, five, Joshie. First of all, thank you for joining us. But second, like I don't like this comment at all. Don't think I'll ever understand how someone who truly, truly loves baseball feels as though post season games need to be home run derbies. These teams brand to baseball, blah, blah, blah. did you even listen? Did you even listen to what we said? No, I'm serious. Like we go live because we love the game of baseball and we still enjoyed the game. We're just in other post-season games have been more exciting. We've been excited for all of them. There have been other low scoring games. Did you think that this was the greatest game that you've ever seen? Do you really think that on this podcast, all we care about is home run derbies? After everything that we've said for 1,200 episodes? You think that? Are you kidding?
00:14:37
Speaker 1: From all that we.
00:14:39
Speaker 2: Talk about, from everything that we break down, we're the podcast that just wants home run derbies?
00:14:45
Speaker 1: Listen, man. Don't feel the fire.
00:14:48
Speaker 3: It's 11.09 p.m.
00:14:50
Speaker 1: On a Tuesday. Like, we're live because we love this.
00:14:53
Speaker 2: And yeah, I wanted to talk about this game.
00:14:55
Speaker 3: Ah.
00:14:57
Speaker 1: Can I talk about.
00:14:58
Speaker 2: Freddie Peralta for a second?
00:14:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: Like, frankly, there aren't too many talking points left about this game, and that's why it wasn't a great game. But credit to the Rays for taking care of business in a not great game, and so much of that was because of Freddie Peralta, who ran it up to 99 with his heater today. This guy was ridiculous with his fastball.
00:15:18
Speaker 2: It's incredible what the Rays did to fix Freddie Peralta. Over his final seven starts in the regular season with the Rays, he pitched to an ERA below one. In the postseason so far, guess what his ERA is? You guessed it, under one. He just completed six innings for the first time in the playoffs in his career. And I love what they were saying on the broadcast. Instead of the coaching staff telling him when he came over from the Mets what he's doing wrong, they simply leaned into his strengths, telling him how much they loved his changeup. They now have him working out of the stretch more. His mechanics look more fluid, more repeatable, and now he's throwing these 98 to 99 mile-hour rise balls that are nearly unhittable on their own, but they make his disgusting changeup that much better. He went from a prove-it free agent deal this offseason to one of the best arms in the market who could potentially get a four-year contract I don't know, $ 100 million deal? Maybe not that much, but his market has grown exponentially. Freddie Fuzz is so back, and it's yet another success story for the Tampa Bay Rays. Their ability to just use their little puppet arms in order to change guys. Like, Freddie Peralta is not this 24-year-old that they picked up off the scrap heap. He had an incredible career, and then he just melted, and nobody wanted to give up anything for him. But the Rays said, sure, come over here. We're going to lean into your strengths and look at what he's doing down the stretch for the Rays to put him in this position in the playoffs. And then in this game, I think he could have thrown all fastballs in this one and he would have done totally fine.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: Their changes are so simple, and I don't want anyone to lose that with Tampa.
00:17:15
Speaker 1: And, you know, you.
00:17:16
Speaker 3: Did the puppet arms thing. I thought you were sprinkling the magic pixie dust. You could have gone either way with that gesture that you made on YouTube. Thanks for joining us on YouTube and X, by the way. But, no, man, the changes that Tampa makes to every single guy, they're very, very, quote, unquote, simple.
00:17:38
Speaker 1: And usually there is an oversight.
00:17:40
Speaker 3: And for decades, in a long history of Major League Baseball, some of these tweaks have just been oversights. With Freddie, it was, hey, we're going to change the grip on the changeup a little bit. I know you've made a lot of money and you've won a lot of games with this, but it's not working, so let's try something different.
00:17:56
Speaker 1: And credit to him for being receptive doing that.
00:18:00
Speaker 3: You mentioned the idea that Tampa has, I guess, kind of famously.
00:18:06
Speaker 1: Kept as theirs. which is whatever you do really well, do it all the time.
00:18:13
Speaker 3: Matt Whistler, I want to say his WIS LER, Matt Whistler, he went over to Tampa and he was 90% slider. And this note from our team on Twitter at just BB underscore media, Freddie Peralta's last eight starts dating back to the regular season, six scoreless, six, a one run ball, six, a one run ball, five scoreless, Five and two-thirds one run, five and a third scoreless, four and two-thirds a one-run ball, and six scoreless with 6K. So it has lost 44 and two-thirds innings, including two starts in the postseason.
00:18:46
Speaker 1: It's a 0.81 ERA.
00:18:49
Speaker 3: They get guys over there, and they say, whatever you do awesome, do it more, because we want to see more awesome. And then there are other fixes, like my favorite one And I think it's what makes Kyle Snyder one of the best pitching minds that we've seen in recent memory. The pitching coach for the Rays is Tyler Glassnow, who couldn't throw the ball in the rectangle to save his life in Pittsburgh, gets over to Tampa and he says, dude, stop worrying about the corners. Stop worrying about command. We're going to have our catchers set up right over the heart of the plate and your misses are going to take you to the corners. Your center cut heater that you're trying to throw the miss is going to make it a good pitch. I just think like that is, it's so simple when it's actually put into terms, but it's very hard for teams to see that and articulate it to players. I think Tampa is elite at articulating what needs to change to players and players are willing to be receptive to it take it, and run. They're an organization that are built on people. I've heard Peter Bendix, the president of baseball operations for the Marlins, talk about that all the time. He was like, the thing that made Tampa very successful is not only were they a data-driven organization, they were a people-driven organization. That's what he's trying to do with the Marlins and that's what he succeeded at doing with the Marlins over the last three years. If you make your organization a people-based organization and you give the right people the right resources, they're going to get really freaking good. And sometimes it happens over six years in the minor leagues. Sometimes it happens over two months after the trade deadline for a rental starter like Freddie Peralta.
00:20:28
Speaker 1: Exactly.
00:20:28
Speaker 2: And, you know, the Brewers do it and the Guardians do it as well. I mean, Look at Joe Adele. He's become a much better baseball player ever since, you know, coming over to Cleveland. So, and that's how you can overcome a lack of payroll is the coaching, right? The development, the scouting, the drafting. This is, those are four things that Cleveland, Tampa and Milwaukee do better than just about anybody. And they coach baseball the right way and they just play baseball the right way. And that's what we get in two games. The reason I guess we're a little bit more down on this game is because we don't expect these two teams to make mistakes so early. And then that mistake leads to the only runs in the game.
00:21:19
Speaker 3: And it's important to clarify that we're down on the game. Like we're not down on teams. We're just down on the quality of game that we got.
00:21:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
00:21:28
Speaker 2: So I think it's time to now pick game three. of the NLCS, unless you got anything else on this one.
00:21:34
Speaker 3: No, I mean, just want to circle back to Liam Hicks real, real quick, because that was a six swing left on left for a two run single. And I love Liam Hicks. He is the freaking man. Uh, Tampa has some of my favorite guys in baseball. Liam Hicks is one of my favorites. Ryan Valade is one of my favorite guys in baseball, just a genuinely awesome dude. And then Victor Mesa jr. Is also the man really, really happy for these guys. Um, kind of spreading their wings and succeeding in the freaking ALCS and getting a win in the ALCS.
00:22:04
Speaker 1: I think it's really cool.
00:22:05
Speaker 2: It is really cool. And Liam Hicks, again, going into, you know, this game was hitting like, he was hitting under the Mendoza line. I think it was, I saw 192 against lefties during the regular season and he was struggling so far in the playoffs, right? I think he was hitting 083. And then what does he do against Parker Messick? Smacks two singles, one for two RBIs. coming up in big moments in a spot where, you know, the numbers would say not put in a good spot yet.
00:22:34
Speaker 1: Here we are.
00:22:35
Speaker 2: And that's playoff baseball.
00:22:36
Speaker 1: All right.
00:22:36
Speaker 2: Podcast P before we predict game three of the NLCS, would you mind giving us a whoosh? Game three of the NLCS Dodgers versus the Brewers. Blake Snell takes the mound for the Dodgers and Robert Gasser takes the mound for for the Milwaukee Brewers. So I posted on Twitter, Jack, was it, I think it was a day ago. It was after the game, after watching some of these Otani swings, where I think anybody with two eyeballs that's watched more than one baseball game would say, he looks hurt. These are not the swings that we're used to. You already put together a really good piece on it. You guys have talked about it at length. We don't need to rehash it, but I do want to talk about the new news. And Shoya Otani went to Dave Roberts and said, I am blank. I'm playing. And so there's a part of me, first of all, that tweet was saying, I think Shohei Otani should be on the bench and they should start Josue DiPaola at DH. It's not just some random rookie on your bench. Josue DiPaola puts up at bats where I think you've been in the league for 10 years. He's not afraid of the moment. Clutch walk at the end. I think he'd give the Dodgers a spark in their lineup. One they desperately need. And Shohei Otani is clearly playing hurt. And I said, let me know if I'm overreacting. Now, half the comment section was, yes, you're overreacting. You're an idiot. I hate you. I'm going to whatever. And the other half was, you're not overreacting at all. It's clear. And it was clear to me that Dave Roberts thought about it. But then when Shohei Otani comes to you and says, I'm playing.
00:24:18
Speaker 1: You don't have a choice.
00:24:19
Speaker 2: I'm going to let him play. I mean, we're talking about the greatest of all time. You're going down with the ship with Shohei freaking Otani. Now, what I will say is, Shohei, you better hit. And what I mean by that is, he is basically forcing himself into the lineup. Jack, do you know his numbers off Robert Gasser?
00:24:42
Speaker 3: No.
00:24:43
Speaker 2: He's 0 for 7 with 4 strikeouts.
00:24:45
Speaker 1: Ouch.
00:24:48
Speaker 2: X-Wobb of 182. For anyone who doesn't know what X-Wobb means, doesn't matter. Shitty. So you're forcing yourself into a matchup that hasn't really gone well for you. And now what I will say is a lot of the Dodgers have done really well off Gasser. Kyle Tucker's three for six with a triple and a Homer. Freddie Freeman is two for two with two doubles. Teoscar Hernandez is two for five with a Homer. Andy Pahez is four for five with a double and a Homer. Max Muncy is one for four, but that one hit is a double. Tommy Edmond is two for three. So, theoretically, they should be fine. All I'm saying is Shohei Ohtani better hit. He better hit. Because if the swings look terrible, he even said, he came out in the postgame presser, and I commend him for it.
00:25:40
Speaker 1: He's like, no.
00:25:41
Speaker 2: With the way I've been playing, my symptoms, and Dave Roberts said it's his knees, it's his upper body, everything's not working well. He's like, it has nothing to do with that. It's on me. Okay? Okay. Let's see it. Because if you lose this game and he goes 0-4 or gets a walk, the spotlight is going to be on you. It's already really unfairly on him. Like, people are, some of the takes I'm hearing about Otani are so ridiculous. I mean, people talking about the contract being terrible. You know, people, oh, this is your goat?
00:26:21
Speaker 1: Shut up.
00:26:23
Speaker 2: Yes, he's my goat.
00:26:26
Speaker 3: I think you need a Twitter detox. You're going down the awful rabbit holes, man.
00:26:31
Speaker 2: Maybe I do. Maybe I do. I think it's because when it's football and I'm also in college football circles and in baseball, I'm just constantly making content, so I'm constantly online. I think I'm losing my mind.
00:26:46
Speaker 3: I would recommend Touching Grass. That would be a great route forward um.
00:26:53
Speaker 2: That's a good idea i need to touch some grass you're.
00:26:55
Speaker 3: Right yeah no touch some grass uh otani i'm with you as soon as he tells dave roberts that he's playing all right cool you're playing but yeah to your point you better hit and uh i saw i saw the you know clips and the sound bites from otani's presser and he was effectively saying he feels like it's a swing problem not a health problem and um i thought i thought jake mintz said something solid he was like i after watching every single plate appearance from him this postseason in person, can't say I agree.
00:27:29
Speaker 1: No, I think I'm with you, man.
00:27:30
Speaker 3: Like it's, it's tough watching him on TV, knowing that the injury bug has plagued him for the last six weeks of the regular season. I'm not sure how you can look at this and say, yeah, no, it's a swing mechanics thing. I just, I think he's fully not healthy. So I guess we're going to find out, but Otani is, yes it would be awesome if he stepped up no doubt about that but this is your time freddie and mookie and tucker and and muncie and you know edmund and pajes and whoever the hell else like little all of these guys this is your time will smith like let's let's show up it's not shohei and friends that are trying to win their third world series in a row it's otani and reigning world series mvp yoshinobu yamamoto and the guy that hit the go-ahead home run in will smith like There are so many elite baseball players on this Dodger team that they can pick up the slack for the greatest player we've ever seen with a bum knee.
00:28:31
Speaker 1: They just can't.
00:28:33
Speaker 3: Now, it's really hard against the Brewers, but it's not like you're taking on Mizorowski or Henderson. Gasser's been good. Gasser's not Mizorowski or Henderson. They have to win tomorrow. They have to win tomorrow.
00:28:46
Speaker 2: And bet MGM is pricing them like they have to. Because the Dodgers right now on bet MGM are minus 180 against the Brewers, plus 150. I almost want to bet on the Brewers just out of principle. Brewers should be plus 150 to who? Brewers are phenomenal. Now, with that said, I was like, I wonder how the Brewers do against Blake Snell. Because Blake Snell, what the Brewers do, you know, almost better than anybody, is they don't chase outside the zone.
00:29:14
Speaker 1: And he walked five in the DS. 90 pitches.
00:29:17
Speaker 3: 47 for strikes against atlanta and the ds.
00:29:21
Speaker 2: And i so i was shocked to see that over 73 plate appearances against the brewers current roster we're talking about the guys that are going to be in the lineup tomorrow jack they're hitting a buck 72 with a 40 k rate let's go through a couple of options Jackson Choreo, 0 for 5 with four strikeouts. William Kacharis, 1 for 6 with two strikeouts. Sal Freelick, 0 for 5 with a strikeout. Joey Ortiz, 0 for 3. Jake Bowers, 0 for 3 with two strikeouts. Bryce Terang, 0 for 4 with two strikeouts. Andrew Vaughn, 0 for 5 with a strikeout. The best of them is Gary Sanchez, who's 7 for 23 with five jacks, which is kind of electric. But like Yelich is two for nine. I guess that's the best, but he's also got four strikeouts. So maybe it's something about Blake Snell, but at the same time, he hasn't faced them this season. I don't know. The numbers are telling me the Dodgers should just crush Gasser based on what they've done in the past. And the Brewers are going to get annihilated by Blake Snell. But if you've watched the series, I wouldn't blame you for just not believing in those numbers at all because I just read them and I don't believe them. So I'm, I'm going to pick the Dodgers to win this game simply because no way they go down three.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Oh, right.
00:30:39
Speaker 2: Yeah. But anything we've seen so far, there's nothing to grab onto for taking the Dodgers in this game.
00:30:46
Speaker 1: There's nothing.
00:30:48
Speaker 3: The thing that I will grab onto is the three run loss of seemed a heck of a lot closer than the score would suggest yesterday.
00:30:59
Speaker 2: No, I disagree. I think it should have been a blowout. How did the Dodgers get the runs? Errors.
00:31:04
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, they gritted and grinded their way through it, but I mean, they stuck in it. Like the Dodgers, the threat went away because the Brewer bullpen was unbelievable.
00:31:13
Speaker 1: They went five perfect.
00:31:16
Speaker 2: If Logan Henderson... doesn't throw two balls away and bounce one in front of the plate.
00:31:22
Speaker 1: We're talking about a six run game.
00:31:24
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:31:25
Speaker 2: That's what I'm saying. It wasn't as close. I, I think the brewers have just flat out dominated them in this series so far.
00:31:32
Speaker 3: I don't think that's, I don't think that's fair after game one, game one was a two one game and the Dodgers had opportunities, but.
00:31:39
Speaker 2: We even said Jacob Mizorowski didn't have his best stuff. Like I, I went on a rant. I was like, if you told me before the game started, if I told you, Jacob Mizorowski wasn't going to have his best stuff, and Tarek Skubal's on the other side. Whole bank account on the Dodgers.
00:31:52
Speaker 1: Guess what?
00:31:53
Speaker 2: Whole bank account gone. Yeah. Like, maybe not dominated. Maybe that's a little bit much. But I thought they pretty much dominated game two, and then they won without playing their best baseball in game one.
00:32:07
Speaker 1: I think they have looked like the better team.
00:32:10
Speaker 3: I think they have been objectively the better team Milwaukee has over the Dodgers.
00:32:14
Speaker 1: But I think that the Dodgers, like, They haven't laid down.
00:32:17
Speaker 3: And we talked about this last night with Fink and Peyton pointed this out. The overwhelming majority of the Dodger losses in the postseason in their hunt for a three-peat have been blowouts. Like they've been non-competitive losses because they just kind of punt the game and they try again the next time.
00:32:35
Speaker 1: They haven't really had an opportunity to do that.
00:32:38
Speaker 3: The closest thing would have been game two. But I mean, I just think I'm not saying, like, hey, two balls bounce differently and it's 2-0 Dodgers, or heck, it's even 1-1.
00:32:51
Speaker 1: I just think that, like, the.
00:32:52
Speaker 3: Dodgers have not totally lied down and given up in the front two games. And to your point, I find it really hard to believe that they fall down 3-0 in this NLCS.
00:33:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the Dodgers, but I hate it. I just feel like the Brewers... I'm thinking to myself, they totally could go down 3-0. The Brewers are playing objectively better baseball than they are. No doubt about it. And if Otani is just killing rallies and they don't get the big home run that they've kind of relied on for their offense so far in the postseason, and the Brewers just take and don't fall for Blake Snell's bait, and they get him out by the fourth inning, And then the Dodgers bullpen comes in for the third time, but the Brewers have seen them a ton already.
00:33:43
Speaker 1: Could get ugly.
00:33:44
Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying. I'll pick the Dodgers because I got a ton of money on them to win the World Series. I mean, just like an uncomfortable amount of money on them to win the World Series. So I'm hoping I'll go with the Dodgers, Jack. I'm just letting the people know that I don't actually believe in it.
00:33:59
Speaker 3: I'm picking the Dodgers because they have a two-time Cy Young Award winner starting against Robert Gasser.
00:34:05
Speaker 2: They better win.
00:34:06
Speaker 1: They better win. They better win.
00:34:09
Speaker 2: All right. That'll do it for this episode of the just baseball show. Special shout out to podcast P for brilliant producing. Once again, special shout out to you, everybody who joined, even you, Joshie.
00:34:20
Speaker 1: I love you.
00:34:21
Speaker 2: I'm getting fired up. It's a fired up type of podcast. If you can't handle it, you know, get out, you know, but I appreciate hitting the big red subscribe button, leaving comments. And of course, liking the video is the best way to support. the just baseball show. And if you did enjoy again, listening after the fact on audio five-star reviews, best way to help the show for free. If you want to continue the conversation, keep talking baseball with us and our 1100 members of our discord. You can find the link in the episode description for Jack McClellan. I'm Peter Apple. Guess what we're doing tomorrow. You guessed it live here on YouTube after the games. And with that.
00:34:59
Speaker 3: Thank you.
