NFL Week 3 Preview: Who Needs a Win Most? Predictions, Injuries & Matchups to Watch (Ep. 2219)

00:00:02
Speaker 1: What's up, friends? The tailgate is on. I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice here. We're going to be breaking down week three. We've got predictions. We've got some calls. We're going to be breaking down some of the big games and some of the latest news all here on the tailgate with a couple of my besties. Erickson, what's up, buddy? How we doing?
00:00:22
Speaker 2: Dude, got my Dunkin' Donuts today because it's fall. It's autumn. Dude, I'm what is a better time to be alive than in new England in fall football season? Loving it, man.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Never been to new England. So I, I don't know. I've never been that far on the East coast. So I have no, we got to change that then we do. We probably have to Fitzy. Fitzy, are you a world? I feel like you've done some world traveling. You've, you've tasted some brews across many different, many different establishments.
00:00:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: I've been overseas.
00:00:54
Speaker 4: You know, I've driven from Amsterdam to southern Italy.
00:00:57
Speaker 3: That was fun.
00:00:59
Speaker 4: And I've been to New England. I've been to Boston. Love the area, but I've never been for fall. I would love to go for fall. I know you've got spectacular foliage there, Erickson.
00:01:09
Speaker 2: It remains undefeated foliage.
00:01:12
Speaker 1: A plus foliage. Yes, this is a foliage show, guys. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a high end foliage show. Sorry, I'm completely uncultured in the desert, but I did get woken up. You just got a bunch of sand.
00:01:21
Speaker 2: You got this sand.
00:01:22
Speaker 1: I just got a bunch of sand, but I was woken up to like 120 decibel lightning thunder strike today because it's raining and that doesn't happen in Arizona anymore. And it's kind of apropos of week two going into week three because there have been a ton of lightning strikes, a ton of injuries, a ton of chaos, and we are just trying to wade through it. And that's what we're going to do today. So let's not waste any more time. No more foliage talk. And let's talk some NFL. Let's jump into some of the trending news before we start breaking down stuff. And this has obviously been pacing itself out over a couple of days. But a few little new nuggets. You guys know Jackson Dart got hurt. Then you knew it was four to six weeks. Then you knew it was out for the season. The newest news is he is officially having surgery. But the word is that he could be back for the playoffs. That's not the only piece of news. Adam Schefter is out reporting that the Giants might be actually looking at some trade candidates. We've kind of been all over the board about this because they've got Jameis Winston, which I don't know, kind of seems silly. If I hear that they are looking at trade candidates to me, it does scream a tiny bit that maybe that version of Jameis Winston we saw on week two might be the version they're very scared they had. And Adam Schefter named a couple players, specifically Gardner Minshew and Mack Jones as candidates. I thought it was an interesting thing. Schefter noted that Minshew had played under Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy in Kansas City, which there's some familiarity there. But then he noted that Mac Jones might cost less, which I completely disagree. That would be the quarterback you would want. And then a slight little lean to Jimmy Garoppolo. So I think this is kind of an interesting thing that's transpiring here, that they would look at bringing in a quarterback, Erickson, after they've made the kind of commitment at the back of Jameis Winston and they've got him rolling out here. So what do you think of this report? What do you think this says for the Giants? All that's wrapped around that Jackson Dart could return for the playoffs. So they are trying to win games to get there.
00:03:21
Speaker 2: Call him BS on the Jackson Dart returning for the playoffs. I take John Harbaugh's stance when it comes to how well he's expected to perform with backup quarterbacks with a grain of salt. Considering last year, they opted to start Cooper Rush instead of Tyler Huntley last season when Lamar Jackson first got injured. And that was a borderline disaster, despite the fact that there was a large sample size of Tyler Huntley, Snoop Huntley, Pro Bowl quarterback playing very well in the Lamar Jackson role. So I don't trust Harbaugh to make the right decision when it comes to the backup quarterback. And maybe that's why we saw Jameis Winston play so horribly because they had all their eggs invested into one basket, that basket being Jackson Dart. So I do think that this is particularly concerning that after one game, they're already like, we got to pull the plug on Jameis Winston. And then it's interesting because you look up at the betting market, who's favored at home this week? The New York Giants with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback, which if you look at, Jameis Winston as a market favorite, 27% against the spread in his career as a market favorite. You can never want to bet on Jameis as a favorite in any capacity.
00:04:27
Speaker 1: Well, just a matchup. It's interesting what you said, though, in that he'll make the wrong decisions. But then you've got Nagy here who could go and say, hey, listen, I think Mac Jones is probably the highest talent here, Fitzy. But specifically, I think the one that makes the most sense is the Gardner Minshew, where Nagy could sell everybody saying, this guy knows the system. We can implement him immediately. What would the Cardinals care at this point? I think that's an easy transitional move that probably isn't made this week. But how much are you buying, not just the playoff thing with Jackson Dart, Erickson's kind of selling that, but how much are you buying that they might try to make, I don't even want to call it a splash, but they would make a move after having James Winston?
00:05:07
Speaker 4: Well, I'm absolutely selling the idea that the Giants are going to be anywhere near the playoff hunt without Jackson Darts. I mean, this was kind of an up-and-coming team as it was, maybe a puncher's chance to get to the playoffs, even with Jackson Dart. Without him, I just don't see any ray of hope for them to get there. What would be best for them moving forward? We'll see if things look a little more buttoned up with Jameis Winston in Week 2. Like, a lot of times... Quarterbacks come in cold. They haven't had any practice reps all week. Things look really bad. Then they get practice reps for a week. They know they're going to be starting. The preparation is a little different and things look a lot better the following week. Now, Jameis Winston thinks they're never going to look completely buttoned up, but we could get that 300-yard, three-touchdown, three-interception kind of game that we're used to seeing from Jameis Winston in his starts. We know there are going to be some turnover-worthy throws, but he does challenge defenses downfield. You know, the Giants are going to need some splash plays now that their playmaking quarterback is out for presumably the entire season, playoffs included.
00:06:15
Speaker 1: I mean, there's cold quarterbacks and then there's Jameis Winston in week two.
00:06:19
Speaker 3: That was ugly.
00:06:21
Speaker 4: Yeah.
00:06:21
Speaker 1: And I kind of agree. I actually think this is a weird space that they're in, though. Like, how much can they afford to see how long it's going to take for Winston? Like, obviously, you're not going to make a move. Nothing's going to change for this week. You're going to throw Winston out there. is it going to be enough that this game is going to be the tell? And then if they're like, Ooh, this is a disaster, they're going to immediately go make a trade. And I think that trade would probably make most sense for a guy like Minshew. And what does that do? I don't know. I just thought if Schefter is reporting on it, there's just something that's floating out there. And to me, it's probably some of the uneasiness of how Winston was, but like you said, he could cure all of that by just going, you know, Winston slaying when he just slings the ball and it's, It's 420 yards and it's three, probably three picks as well with the three touchdowns. But, you know, that's the game. And I don't know if Harbaugh can deal with that, but I thought that was an interesting report.
00:07:09
Speaker 4: I would just wonder about like there's I don't see the urgency for a team that doesn't have realistic Super Bowl halts.
00:07:15
Speaker 3: You know, who cares if you start 0-3?
00:07:19
Speaker 4: Knowing the way Jackson Dart likes to play and now he's had this major knee injury, you might need to start thinking about having a better-than-average backup quarterback on the roster, someone like Mack Jones, for next season to pick up the pieces in case something happens to Dart again in 2027.
00:07:37
Speaker 1: And I think they thought they were. I know we can look at it, but I don't think they internally are looking at it as they're not.
00:07:42
Speaker 2: Is Jim telling John to call the Vikings about a one Mr. J.J. McCarthy?
00:07:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, that was another one that was floated out there in the very beginning. That would be kind of like the two young long term battle type of thing. But you don't trade for J.J. McCarthy to win games this year. You know what I mean? So like that, like the move to it's stupid saying this. The move to try to win games is getting a guy like Gardner Mincher who knows the offense or Mac Jones. The move after a couple weeks when it's all screwed up and it's messed up is to your point. Go and get a J.J. McCarthy, change of scenery, play him the last half of the year, see if you have something in him, and then there's maybe, I don't know if it's competition or a safety net for yourself with Jackson Dart because all he does is get hurt. So very interesting quarterback carousel that's going on. Another in the coaching delusion, Denver Broncos. saying that they're going to be okay. Peyton said that everything's going to be just fine. You know the dog? I actually have the little thing of it, the dog with the fire around it. This is fine. This is him. As three of the four running backs are all on the injury report right now. Jonah Coleman did not practice yesterday. I think J.K. Dobbins is trending a little bit in a better direction.
00:08:53
Speaker 2: R.J.
00:08:53
Speaker 1: Harvey's out there. Erickson, you have had one really good point you have said for two weeks now, and you got a hold to it. What time is it in Denver?
00:09:04
Speaker 2: Tyler Bidet.
00:09:05
Speaker 3: It's always Tyler Bidet.
00:09:06
Speaker 1: It is Bidet time.
00:09:07
Speaker 2: I mean, even last week, I know Jonah Coleman kind of stole the show, but Bidet was out there. He was making some plays, especially as a pass catcher out of the backfield. So whichever running back we get that's healthy between Dobbins, Harvey, or Coleman, Bidet is going to be also playing a role in this Broncos backfield, especially when you have a matchup against the Rams where it's very defensively potential for them to be trailing in that game and you need a receiver out of the backfield. So that's something you have to keep in mind. So again, to kind of just temper expectations on whichever running back is healthy, that they're not going to see a 80%, you know, 20 touch type of workload, probably.
00:09:46
Speaker 1: Fitz, are you worried about this Denver Bronco team if they don't have any of these backs and they're unable to establish the run and Bo Nix has looked a little, you know, rough-ish around the edges and They just haven't gotten all these pieces going. How worried should we be about this team, especially when we're already looking at this and the entire backfield is banged up?
00:10:03
Speaker 3: It is a little bit of a problem.
00:10:04
Speaker 4: I mean, this wasn't expected to be one of the best backfields in the NFL, but it was one of the deepest, and now that depth is immediately being tested.
00:10:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a worrisome thing, especially if you're a fantasy owner. You can kick that Jonah Coleman rank to the curb and maybe be on the lookout for J.K.
00:10:22
Speaker 2: Dobbins.
00:10:23
Speaker 1: What I'm really worried about, this literally might be a different back finishing as the top back for this team every single week of the season. Legitimately, I will be surprised, hopefully not, but there's a legitimate chance we might have a different back being the top guy every, no back-to-back weeks where Jonah Coleman goes off or J.K.
00:10:44
Speaker 3: Dobbins.
00:10:44
Speaker 1: They're just going to continuously share across the board because of this big mixture. Some other news and notes. Sean McVeigh said that Pukunukua is, quote, not making great progress fits. This is looking bad again. It did not seem like it was going to be at this level, especially if you saw some of those videos that were out there for Monday night's game. He was inactive. He continuously is actually being either transparent or just a really good liar with his poker face. But saying that Pukunukua is just not doing well with this. So your guesstimation, do you think we're going to see him out there? And if we don't, is this going to continue to benefit Terrence Ferguson?
00:11:18
Speaker 4: I have to take McVay at face value. You know, if he says things aren't looking good, they probably aren't looking good. And we should probably expect Puka to miss another game at least. But yeah, I think we're going to see the Rams continue to lean into like heavy 12 and 13 personnel usage as they did last year when they used 13 personnel at the highest rate in the league by far. And Terrence Ferguson, he is the pass catcher of those tight ends.
00:11:44
Speaker 3: And we saw.
00:11:46
Speaker 4: the athleticism that prompted the Rams to make him a second round.
00:11:49
Speaker 3: Draft pick a couple of years ago.
00:11:51
Speaker 4: He looked really good on Monday night. He ran more than twice as many routes as any other Rams tight end. I think he will be a big part of the passing game again if Puka is absent, but it's a tougher matchup this week with Denver versus, you know, last week, the Giants secondary looked terrible, just terrible.
00:12:08
Speaker 3: And Denver's secondary is considerably better.
00:12:11
Speaker 1: Erickson, my tinfoil hat is, this is my conspiracy. I think that the NFL quietly behind the scenes cracked down on teams, ownership, and coaches that would do what we used to see. They give you no information. They give you false information on injuries, and then they flip the switch. How many times do you see that in the past where they're like, yeah, not looking good. We don't know. We'll have to see. We'll have to see. Boom, guy goes out there, plays 95% of the routes and stuff. This year, it seems like it's the opposite direction. It is more face. Maybe I got to pay attention more to coach speak. It seems more injury face value. And my conspiracy theory is because of partnerships and how damning that can be in the NFL when the coaches would kind of hide behind. Obviously, they have injury reports, but they would hide all that information and try to use it as gamesmanship. I don't feel like that's out there this year. So I have been taking face value to what we are being told with injuries because I think there has been a secret. Illuminati meeting behind the scenes. And that's my big conspiracy.
00:13:14
Speaker 2: Well, that's why injury reports exist in the first place, right?
00:13:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were nonsense before.
00:13:19
Speaker 2: No oh yeah but like that's why they and that thing that i always gave credit to bill belichick was he said screw you he just put everybody on the injury report so it didn't matter well uh the injury report's filled out tom brady is on it again questionable with the shoulder injury.
00:13:32
Speaker 1: Don't see anymore that's what my conspiracy change is that's now dead and there there are no belichicks out there that are fighting against that and the nfl is like nope we're not doing that bill actually is probably the one that's helped us get here because he manipulated it so.
00:13:47
Speaker 2: I just remembered laughing every single time you looked at a Patriots injury report because he would put 30 players on the Wednesday injury report with just shoulder, ankle, finger, hand injuries. Tom Brady was on the injury report for like four straight years every single week with like questionable shoulder injury. Never missed a game.
00:14:09
Speaker 1: It's my favorite thing.
00:14:10
Speaker 2: All right, let me know.
00:14:11
Speaker 1: I'm curious if anybody else thinks that that conspiracy is out there, too, because I am taking a lot more face value. And then like the reality of what these guys are saying, I think, is holding. So that doesn't really hold well to Puka Nakua. But Terrence Ferguson really did kind of slide well into that role. So we will probably see a whole lot more of him. Last two pieces, Aaron Jones. We talked about this on the tailgate live, which you guys should come and check Erickson and I out. We do that 5 p.m. Eastern on Wednesdays, hanging out with people. And we had just gotten the news that Aaron Jones has a knee injury. And that knee injury, even though we talked about it there, we're now here with Fitzy. that knee injury doesn't look great to the point that he might not be playing in the game. And they were talking up Damon Claiborne and DJ Dallas. So, Fitzy, your reaction, because you were kind of reacting with us because you had said you even cut Damon Claiborne in a league yesterday prior to this news coming out, but it slowly kind of peaced out. Erickson and I are both in the leaning of like, it doesn't look like he's good to go for this because they had this massive usage on him. Now this knee is banged up and it might be Damon Claiborne time.
00:15:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, it might be Claiborne time.
00:15:16
Speaker 4: Small, very fast, shifty, elusive back from Wake Forest. It would be interesting to see him get a chance. He is small, but he's not just a mere scat back. He does pretty well as far as contact balance and bouncing off tackles. Maybe a little utility in the passing game, too. So, I guess it would be a mix of him and, what, DJ Dallas, the other guy.
00:15:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's what they said.
00:15:42
Speaker 3: And left in that backfield.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: And then Jerome Ford, too. Yeah, if he's activated.
00:15:46
Speaker 3: Jerome Ford.
00:15:47
Speaker 1: Well, that would be an interesting one. But, Erickson, you had even said, like, we've agreed, like, DJ Dallas probably is, like, a guy that gets the start and is probably, like, a third down– pass blocking type of guy. But if there's someone to make a bet on to make the big play, it would be Damon Claiborne.
00:16:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not going to be, I feel pretty confident that they're not going to scheme up any type of touches for DJ Dallas. I feel pretty confident. And even last week, like who had more targets, Damon Claiborne or Aaron Jones? Damon Claiborne did. He ran one route, got one target on it. So clearly they know that he has juice, that he can hit the edge and score an 80 yard touchdown. So against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is really tough to run on anyway. I think that Kevin O'Connell might just lean into the fact that, look, our starting running back, we overloaded with touches last week, is really banged up. We have a lot of inexperience now at the running back position. We have DJ Dallas, who we feel good about as a veteran. We have this expulsive rookie who can make some big plays if we get him in space. And we're getting our starting quarterback back in the lineup. So you attack this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense through the air. Kyler's back. Let's go. Let it rip. The Buccaneers are unraveling 0-11 against the spread, tied the continuing of a Super Bowl era record of how bad they've been against the spread. Todd Bowles, his hot seat is scorching right now. So I just think they continue to lean into the passing game in this matchup.
00:17:10
Speaker 4: Maybe they do, but it's going to be interesting to see if Kyler can handle that in his first game back, because you know Todd Bowles is going to throw blitzes at him constantly in this game. And Kyler only played 11 snaps, I think, in that first game against the Packers. He didn't look good in those 11 snaps. Like they need to have a plan for handling the Tampa Bay Blitz this week.
00:17:32
Speaker 3: And we'll see how Kyler fares.
00:17:34
Speaker 1: And that also could be why a guy like DJ Dallas could be out there quite a bit more just playing a pass blocking role. But also it could be and I would also the another side note is my brain goes into three different spots. is like what type of tentativeness are we going to see from Kyler because of him getting smashed, you know, the previous week to get that concussion? Is he comfortable with running or is it going to just be a sling fest? So that'll be something to watch.
00:17:58
Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson 2022. I mean, look, if I was Kyler, it's like, how do I make this as simple as possible? Drop back. Where's Justin Jefferson throwing the ball? Don't overthink it.
00:18:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, Addison, not too bad either. The other piece, very complicated issue, the continuous saga of the Josh Jacobs situation. Only reason we're going to mention this is because it just came down. It is this continued conversation around the videotape in Josh Jacobs' situation being sealed. The woman involved with it had requested it to be sealed. There was a judge that had a temporary denial of that. And then today, Judge Mark Hammer denied the request by the victim in the Josh Jacobs case, I'm reading an exact quote here, to have this permanently sealed and instead turn the matter over to the Hobart Lawrence Police Department, which will now be the custodian of the records. So what this means is, is any new requests for the records will be handled by the police department, which will then determine if it is considered fair to release those records in And then on top of that, the victim or Jacobs will be granted time to appear if the police department decides to release the records. I'm guessing peer in court. That wasn't made clear. So what that means is there is a much higher likelihood now that that video, where it didn't seem a couple weeks ago, could become released. It's not a guarantee. We don't know. And I think everybody has kind of held to this, Erickson, that That could be– it's obviously a smoking gun, of course, but that could create much more fervor around– because everyone is like four to six games, domestic violence issues. But this could make this a lot of a bigger situation. So the saga of Josh Jacobs continues to be a huge question mark and he stays on the exempt list for we just don't know how long.
00:19:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that whatever's on that video is not good. I would say to say, I think that's probably what is contained on it.
00:19:57
Speaker 1: So it's always going to be not good, by the way, just want to point that out. Like anything domestic violence is not good.
00:20:02
Speaker 2: So it's not good. I think that that's obviously negative for the Jacobs camp. Because if that video gets released and the NFL sees it, he's probably looking at a lengthier suspension or potentially a career ending suspension where he's like, no, you're done. Sorry, like no one's going to bring you back. So that's that's all I have to add.
00:20:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fitzy, nothing you want less to talk about and deal with as a Packer fan than stuff like this. And it's a brutal situation that continuously just it has these stock market ups and downs of chaos involved in it.
00:20:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I can't understand these complex legal issues because I'm just a simple caveman. But I would say that the fact the league has not handed down any sort of suspension yet two weeks into the season suggests that they're holding open the possibility that this video might become available and they would, you know, hand down a much longer suspension than the six-gamer... mandatory for any sort of domestic situation like this.
00:21:01
Speaker 1: And to further add that not only what you just said, but that they are waiting to make anything to see if it would be available to them. Like they are holding out to see if they're going to get it. And now it seems a little bit more likely. So updates as more of this situation comes on.
00:21:18
Speaker 2: I mean, to lighten the mood here, is this his real name? Judge Mark Hammer? It's a great name. It's one of the greatest judge names. If your name is Mark Hammer, you're either a handyman or a judge. It's pretty perfect.
00:21:31
Speaker 1: Only thing would have been better if he was like Daniel Gavel. And he would have just been like, Judge Daniel Gavel. Mark Hammer is a phenomenal.
00:21:38
Speaker 3: Phenomenal name. It's a TV judge name for sure. Totally.
00:21:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, a guy's going to have a show in like a year. Though none of those judge shows ever really go well. They're not very good. All right. We are going to get into the games that matter. We're going to be doing some game breakdowns here in a second. But- I need to tell you about this new prediction market. It's called Polymarket. I think you've heard of them. It's a stock exchange for sports. Buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in. And you can sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 50 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. So download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPODD. When you sign up, that's FPPod to get $ 50 free after you trade just $ 10. That's Polymarket. Some big games that matter. Five games I've got for you that I want to get your takes on here as we go into week three. And this one might actually like if there is, you know, the dragon meme or it's like dragon, dragon. There's like all the dragon. This might be that one when you look at the matchups. But I put Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on this one. Because Cincinnati's defense has been for real. This is a big divisional matchup. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been great, but unlike Cincinnati, they don't have a real semblance of an offense right now. And that seems to be a little bit more tied around Aaron Rodgers. So Fitzy, we could start with you. Just want to get your keys to the game here. And who do you think Can step out of this is going to step out of this for that divisional run, which, you know, is going to be competing up against the Baltimore Ravens here. But what do you think about the two defensive stouts here and what Pittsburgh's offense kind of lacks?
00:23:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, this could be a rock fight because the Dexter Lawrence effect has transformed this defense. There's some other guys playing really well for Cincinnati.
00:23:36
Speaker 1: What a joke they were too last year, by the way. Remember, it was just like, oh great, just play against Cincinnati. Yeah, great point. Complete alteration with one player.
00:23:45
Speaker 4: And you can make the case that the defense has outplayed the Cincinnati offense thus far. But once the Bengals offense gets clicking... they're going to be really hard to stop. And maybe now they don't have to expose Joe Burrow to the sort of punishment he's been taking. Maybe they can have more games where Burrow only has to throw 25, 26, 27 passes.
00:24:05
Speaker 3: To win games.
00:24:07
Speaker 4: You would think that they're going to have an easy time of it against the Pittsburgh offense because the Pittsburgh passing game looks completely broken and they are one of the ugliest watches right now. in football like when pittsburgh has the ball it's just aaron rogers is like he doesn't want to take hits things don't look good yeah i mean i just it's too bad because this pittsburgh defense is legit and there is a ton of talent on that side of the ball and the offense is just dysfunctional right.
00:24:42
Speaker 1: Now i bet fantasy points has this stat but what do you think aaron rogers has done more deep passes of 30 yards or more or throw at players ankles because he's throwing the ball away you know when like a rusher's there and he just throws it down on the ground like what do you think he's done more.
00:24:58
Speaker 3: This season it's a good question oh sorry.
00:25:00
Speaker 1: Yeah you know you can speak on it too but i don't know i i feel like it's throw at the ankles.
00:25:04
Speaker 2: I mean he is chucking a d i mean dk mckay is racking up the air yards.
00:25:09
Speaker 3: But it's like throws that have no chance.
00:25:12
Speaker 1: Of getting yeah yeah eric Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:25:15
Speaker 4: The term prairie yards instead of air yards, that's what we're getting. Because they're just like Aaron Rodgers throwing it. It's not like the effective throws to stretch the defense or whatever. It's just like, I'm going to heave this ball as far as I can rather than stand here and take a hit.
00:25:30
Speaker 1: Do we have two new stats for fantasy points, by the way? Prairie yards and ankle yards can we have? Let's do that.
00:25:36
Speaker 2: The throws are so off the mark that you can't tell if it's a throwaway or just a deep pass. Can't tell.
00:25:43
Speaker 1: It's a brutal run there. Erickson, your take on this situation. I got a bet against Pittsburgh as far as wide receivers go in the prop show we're going to be doing over on Betting Pros this week. But offense looks abysmal. What's your lean? What do you think the keys are in this game?
00:25:58
Speaker 2: Well, to Fitz's point about the Dexter Lawrence impact. So he's been double teamed on 53% of his past rushes this season. It's the ninth highest among defensive tackles. They've generated pressure on 45% of the drop packs when Dexter Lawrence is on the field compared to 35% with him off the field. Against the run, 2.9 yards per carry when he's on the field compared to 5.6 when he's not on the field. His impact is coming up in the numbers. It's so obvious based on how this defense has played overall. And I think just his impact being on the field, it makes the other players better because it puts them in better situations for them to thrive with their pass rushers. Some of their young guys are starting to step up. We knew their secondary had some good pieces. DJ Turner is still balling out. I mean, he's going to lock down DK Metcalf, so it's going to be another 10-target game for Metcalf with no production. So, man, I get this line at three and a half with the Bengals is giving respect to AFC North, divisional matchup. The Bengals are on the road playing in Pittsburgh, but this feels like a line that would be for like a Mike Tomlin team, where it's like, oh, Mike Tomlin, home underdog, like lock of the week, maybe. This is the Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers Steelers. So... In the past, this would be a line where, oh man, I can't touch this. Like, this is so scary. Like the voodoo magic for Mike Tomlin is going to come out. Steelers are going to win this game somehow, some way, but it's not Mike Tomlin calling the shots anymore. It's Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers press conference after the loss to the Patriots sounded like there's already a big disconnect here between this head coach and quarterback. So I think that this might be a slap of reality for the Steelers. And although their defense has looked good the last couple of weeks, uh.
00:27:41
Speaker 4: I don't know.
00:27:41
Speaker 2: I think Joe Burrow is kind of a different animal here with these top tier wide receivers. Jamel Dean is on the injury report. Joey Porter Jr. might come back this week, but how is he going to play in his first game back? We've also seen these Bengals receivers absolutely feast on this defense before in the past with Joe Flacco as the quarterback. So even though they're on the road, I kind of like laying the points with Cincy.
00:28:00
Speaker 1: I think Cincy is going to be like a really good like money line parlay piece. If people are taking a couple teams, they'll probably be popular. And by the way, textbook passive aggressiveness like you put that in the textbook you want to give someone an example of what passive aggressiveness is just show that where aaron rogers is like yeah it's on me to tell the coaches they're not doing a good job like get out of here dude like he's the worst i used to kind of like be a pseudo like sometimes the villains and stuff like i can kind of be okay with and whatever he just has pushed it so far where it's just like you're the worst dude. Like you're just the worst. Like, and that, those are the things that I can't do. So, all right, let's go to the next game in here. This is a, this is Erickson's game, New England and Jacksonville. This is going to be a very, very fun game. One, I mean, two quarterbacks that maybe have like slightly underperformed in what people wanted at a Lawrence, at least last week, first game was really great. Drake may has really struggled. That's something I'm going to talk about a little bit later, but Erickson, your take on this one, Drake May has not gotten going. They're trying to get guys like Dobbs. He had the big play last week. They're just trying to find all their pieces. They have not found their footing to a Jaguars team that, you know, last week was iffy. Parker Washington is clearly the play. Tootin looks good. I kind of think they have found themselves. But how do you think this game is going to play out? And what is a big key part of this matchup?
00:29:21
Speaker 2: It's got to be Parker Washington against Christian Gonzalez, the number one defensive player for the Patriots against the number one receiver for the Jackson Jaguars. Cause it's so clearly Parker Washington, the fact that his target share only trails JSN and Amon Ross St. Brown this season, he's been absolutely fantastic. the numbers show it the film shows it the dude is an absolute stud and the longer the Jaguars wait to pay him the more they're going to have to end up paying Parker Washington so I think that matchup is going to be fascinating I'm.
00:29:50
Speaker 1: Do you think do you think Gonzalez is going to blanket him the entire game.
00:29:53
Speaker 2: In terms of like, he's not going to do any production or he's going to shadow him?
00:29:57
Speaker 1: Well, kind of. Yeah, shadow him. Like, do you think he's going to be shadowing him?
00:30:00
Speaker 2: I think there's going to be a lot of that. I think that Liam Cohen is also sharp enough of an offensive play car to get Parker Washington into favorable situations where Gonzalez just won't end up matching him, whether it's a pick play or something along those lines. And also, I mean, Parker Washington is going to win his fair share of reps. I mean, look, both guys are going to make plays, right? Like both guys are superstars, in my opinion. One of them just hasn't gotten paid yet. So I think it's going to be a battle to watch. That's where my eyes are going to be glued to the screen. That and the under on Chris Rodriguez catches because that guy can't catch a cold. So 0.5 receptions slamming the under on Chris Rodriguez. That'll be a sweat. That'll be fun to go through the entire game. But the receiver quarterback matchup matters a lot to me. And then how does the Patriots offensive line hold up against some pretty fierce pass rushers on the Jaguar side? They lost one of their starting guards. I don't like the spot with Patriots really at all. I think that this is a really good spot for the Jaguars to bounce back. They had a chance to win in Denver last week. They were winning in the second half, but they just couldn't close it out in the fourth quarter. So I think that they get back onto business here. And yeah, I'm not really hopeful about my Patriots this week.
00:31:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, Fitzy, that would make the Patriots 0-2 on the road. This is a tough matchup against the Jags kind of in general. They haven't had their footing. What's your take on this Jaguars-Patriots game?
00:31:17
Speaker 4: This is one I would probably not put a penny on, betting. I feel like this one could go either way, and I just want to get the assessment of where we're at. I want to see if Drake May can kind of turn things around because it's been pretty ugly so far. Give him a mulligan for week one because they're going up against the Seahawks, who did not allow a completion of 10 or more yards against the Cardinals last week. It's the best pass defense in the league. But, you know, not a banner game against the Steelers last week either. Seems like defenses are dropping more guys into coverage against May and rather than trying to like go after him with the blitz, just like, OK, figure it, figure this out. Throwing new puzzles at Drake May to try to solve and kind of hasn't been able to solve them yet. But I have a lot of faith in Drake May to pick it up and eventually overcome some of the challenges defensive coordinators are throwing at him.
00:32:12
Speaker 1: Let's go to Rio. It's Rio.
00:32:14
Speaker 2: It's Rio.
00:32:14
Speaker 1: Rio de Janeiro game, Baltimore at Dallas. This is one of those, like, I'm not a schedule hawk. I don't go and just like, you know, when the schedule get releases, I'm not just like, you know, the papers here, you know, or Steve Martin and the jerk, which not everyone's, no one's going to get that reference. Maybe Fitz, you'll get that reference, but the phone book is here. Like, I don't do that with the schedule. So I'm not like locked into, oh, there's a Rio game in week three. So this one kind of like jumped up on me. And just overall, it's just like a really weird spot. Fitzy, what's your take on this one? There's travel involved. You know, both of these offense, specifically Baltimore, you know, they're dealing with a situation with Zay Flowers and his kind of questionable nature. They really were able to meet that call last week with Rashad Bateman. But will they be able to do that this game? And do you think the travel playing in Rio is going to have any effects on this game?
00:33:04
Speaker 4: Travel?
00:33:06
Speaker 3: I'm not sure.
00:33:07
Speaker 4: What I'm sort of watching for is like what the field looks like. Because there have been reports that the field is not in good shape and the NFL has been sort of, oh, nothing to see here. And apparently some of the boots on the ground reporting suggests that maybe the field is not in the best of shape.
00:33:25
Speaker 3: So you just cross.
00:33:26
Speaker 4: Your fingers that there are no major injuries. I know when the Packers and Eagles played in Brazil a couple of seasons ago in week one, that field was a skating rink. Kind of worked to the advantage of the offense in that game. There were some big passing plays because defenders could not get their footing when players with the ball changed direction. So, yeah, I just I hope everyone emerges with their ligaments intact in this game. But it is a really fun matchup. I just I want to see how the Ravens bounce back after a very disappointing home loss to the Saints last week.
00:34:05
Speaker 1: This seems like one of those games, too, just from a player perspective. Send me to Rio, but give me a couple days after to hang out because hopefully no one is out enjoying what is probably a phenomenal nightlife in Rio. Another note to throw out here. I'm seeing this just like 20 minutes ago. Zay Flowers today did work out on his own in practice, but was not present during the portion of the session that was open to the media. So that's a report that's out there. So he did his own stuff, but he wasn't on the big one, Erickson. Level of concerns with Zay Flowers. And if they're without Zay Flowers, do you think this does truly put them a step behind in this Rio game versus the Cowboys?
00:34:40
Speaker 2: I think potentially. I don't think Zay Flowers is going to play again. I mean, he said that he was limited last week on Friday. I know the Are They Playing tool has him not playing. And of course, because he's on our auction team with Mean Fits, he's obviously not going to play because there's nobody left on that team that's active anymore. You know who our number one bidded up player was? Pukunikua. Next, say Flowers. These guys aren't going to be playing anytime soon.
00:35:03
Speaker 1: Did you have Jaden Daniels too?
00:35:06
Speaker 3: Alec Pierce.
00:35:06
Speaker 2: Dude. oh my god are you absolutely gutted with it like we barely can set a roster last week i'm like i'm like oh can we should we do in joku terrence ferguson it's like oh actually we don't have a choice we have to play both guys and of course in joku gets.
00:35:19
Speaker 1: Hurt man ferguson was nice but.
00:35:21
Speaker 2: It's it's absolutely brutal but no i think that that matters a lot if he's not going to play we've seen this ravens offense the passing game i know bateman stepped up a little bit last week but he's still not to the level of zay flowers so That's concerning from the Ravens perspective. The Ravens are getting back some of those guys I talked about when we were breaking down Javante Williams in his rank. Teddy Buchanan, full practice on Wednesday. Badabuke, the big defensive tackle that is a significant interior upgrade for run defense, full practice on Wednesday. So those guys are probably going to suit up and play in this game, which is going to bolster that run defense for the Baltimore Ravens against a lackluster rush game for the Dallas Cowboys. Like, Javante has not been ripping off any big runs. He is at three yards per carry through two games. And that was against the Giants and Commanders. Like, not good defenses. So, Dallas seems like it's kind of one-dimensional when it comes to they're just kind of past the ball a ton. And how does that kind of pan out when you have poor field conditions? And then on the Dallas side, they're kind of the opposite of what Cincinnati is. Cincinnati is getting all the, okay, their defense, they made all these additions, and you're seeing it. Dallas is like, we made all these additions, and... like Luther Burton, did only squat, right? They're not getting any of the returns on the defensive additions that they made. And they're all banged up again in their secondary. Kobe Durant, hurt. Malik Hooker, hurt. PJ Locke, hurt. All DNPs on Wednesday on the injury report. So this one for me is a game I would not touch from a betting perspective because I could just see so many different ways where it could go. And then you're throwing in the fact that it's played on a neutral field that we don't feel confident about whatsoever. Part of me feels like Why don't they just play this game in Dallas where we know we're going to get a much better product versus, oh, let's roll the dice on this field that may or may not be terrible and put all these superstar players. That just really scares me. So for me, it's like, please, just no more injuries. Have everybody come out. Ravens win by three. Cowboys cover. Whatever. Don't care. That's kind of what I'm hoping for with this game.
00:37:15
Speaker 1: It's not about... Player health, Erickson. It's about growing the game to Rio and Australia. Don't you know they're going to play that Antarctica game? It's going to be great. We're going to be worldwide.
00:37:26
Speaker 3: Dude, that's what they're sending the Steelers, dude.
00:37:28
Speaker 1: NFL prestige worldwide. We're everywhere, playing every game, regardless of the conditions. They're going to play beach ball. It doesn't matter. I don't disagree with you. All right, two more games here. The Denver Broncos and the Rams. The Rams are going to be playing up against the Broncos, who are going to be without, you know, essentially all of their running backs. This is in Denver, though. 1-1. Rams look better. But Rams, it's leaning like they're going to be. There's lots of injuries in this one. Rams look like they're going to be leaning without Puka. If not, that's a case for Terrence Ferguson. Denver Broncos, not that you're probably going to run that well in general anyways, are going to be off those backs. They're going to have to pass. So this is like a big powerhouse matchup that there's just a whole lot of injuries attached to it. Probably, I think, one of the games I'm looking most forward to this week, Erickson. What's your take on this? What injuries are going to affect which team the most that takes them out of this game?
00:38:20
Speaker 2: Well, I think that this... puts the Rams offense in a bit of a tougher spot because it's not going to be Devontae Adams against the Giants cornerbacks as the number one wide receiver. It's going to be him against Patrick Sertan. And the fact that you don't have Puka, now you are really putting Terrence Ferguson in a spot where, dude, you can't have the drops like you did last week. And obviously he did have a breakout. There were some plays that he left on the table, but he's going to be asked to do even more in this game. So the opportunity is going to be there for him. He's a fun second year player that we're excited about, but if he's seeing more coverage from some of these cornerbacks from the Denver Broncos, who else is there to step up? Is it going to be more of the tight ends? I think the answer might actually be, dude, Kyron and Corrin, baby. They're just going to run ship all over this Broncos run defense that has shown, at least in week one, they could not stop Kenneth Walker. And even last week, Bayshall Tootin had some decent runs against them. So I think that without Puka, you could see the Rams really lean more into their ground game, which up to this point, man, like, Lights out, dude. Kyron scoring touchdowns, Korn ripping off the big runs. I think both guys last week, I think were over seven yards per carry. Just the Giants had no answers to stop this run game and both guys are playing so well. So I would expect the Rams run game to play a big factor offensively, just based on the lack of Puka.
00:39:34
Speaker 1: Fitz, what do you think about it? It's an interesting dynamic where I feel like I would be like, oh, the Denver Broncos would be like a team that would want to kind of slow the pace down and the Rams would want to speed it up. But, you know, if the Rams are without some of that passing side and they're going to be running the crap out of the ball, I with a team like the Broncos who don't have much of a running game that are probably need to pass it. Like, how do you think this is going to play out? Do you think there's a potential for high scoring or do you think this is going to be just kind of a punch fest?
00:39:59
Speaker 4: That's a good question because it will be like a battle of contrasting styles. You would think the Rams will be run heavy and the Broncos a little pass heavy.
00:40:08
Speaker 3: I'm not sure.
00:40:08
Speaker 4: I'm just, it's going to be, I feel like we haven't gotten a good gauge of what the Rams are just yet. And certainly it's unfair to definitively judge them without their best defensive player in Miles Garrett and arguably their best offensive player in Puka Nakua, they were airdropped into Australia for that first game. And Sean McVay admitted this week that maybe that was a pretty dumb idea. So they were totally out of sorts for that game against the 49ers. Then week two against the Giants, things completely unravel with the Jackson dart injury and no one in the Giants can cover Devante Adams. And so that's just kind of a laugher. But like, This is going to be a real test for them because Denver is a tough place to win. And this is going to be a really good defense. And I'm anxious to see how the Rams go about it this week.
00:41:00
Speaker 1: Final one is the Monday night game, Philly and Chicago. So much. And this, by the way, could be a laugher. There's a high potential that this one is not a big matchup you want to pay attention to. But the reason we're locked into it, it's not really about the Eagles because the Eagles are the Eagles. You know, Devonta Smith's out there. He's going to eat. Jalen Hurts, probably an opportunity for them to try out stuff if they want against this defense. If Saquon plays, it's great. But this is like a Bears situation. And the reason it's so much more of our eyes are attached to it, I guess they're still trying to like dangle Caleb out there a little bit. But Case Keenum has been working with the ones. Bajent has got the concussion. But you have this quarterback situation that is attached to nothing burgers. Just nothing burgers and Loveland can't get involved. Luther Burden's a disappointment. I guess there was some hubbub about Abe Agin looking at Burden, but the offensive pieces, it looks rough. And I think that's where the big focus is. So, Fitzy, you can start us off here. Can the Bears revive all of their offensive pieces that we're so excited about? The passing offensive pieces, because.
00:42:05
Speaker 3: By the way, I know they scored 59 points.
00:42:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. Let me be more clear about it before I get ripped on that.
00:42:11
Speaker 2: Duh.
00:42:11
Speaker 1: But I'm saying the offensive passing pieces, Burden, Adunze, Loveland, they're just not there. This is a horrible matchup for it to happen. And you might have Case Keenum, the third quarterback that's attached to it. So can the Bears... at all kind of revive this whole thing without Caleb Williams.
00:42:26
Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to see fireworks from the Bears passing game this week. I think they're going to try to run the ball. But here's the interesting thing. This is a revenge game for the Eagles, because when these two teams played last year, it was the Black Friday game. If you'll recall, day after Thanksgiving, the Bears ran all over the Eagles in Philadelphia. I think DeAndre Swift and Kyle Menongai both went over 100 yards that game. There were just explosive running plays against the Eagles left and right in that game. The Eagles defense hasn't forgotten what was done to them by the Chicago Bears last year.
00:43:00
Speaker 3: And now the.
00:43:00
Speaker 4: Bears are in a spot where they are sort of forced to be run heavy. And look, Ben Johnson probably is the best running game designer of any coach in the NFL. But can you design an effective running game when you might not have a credible threat at quarterback.
00:43:19
Speaker 3: That's the question. So the Eagles haven't looked great so far.
00:43:22
Speaker 4: They're 2-0, but man, they did not exactly get any style points with those wins over the Commanders and Titans. They were just kind of do what it took and not much else. So this is going to be a really interesting matchup.
00:43:37
Speaker 1: Tonta Smith got some style points, but they're without Goddard as well. Erickson, do you think we can see a repeat of the Black Friday game and the Bears are going to be able to run? Or is this going to be an Eagles route?
00:43:48
Speaker 2: There's 125 yards for both Swift and Kyle Mungay. So to Fitz's point, man, like they had no answers. And that was on the road, right? This game is being played in Chicago. So you have a little bit of the home field advantage there. I think Soldier Field is one of those places where there is a home field advantage. You look at how good the Bears have been in the Caleb Williams era against the spread, best in the NFL since 2024. Bears covering the spread at home. Caleb Williams era. Yes, but even rookie year Caleb Williams, when he was bad, they were still good at covering the spread at home. So just going to point a picture or painting the picture of how this team is a tough out regardless when they are playing in front of their Chicago fans. And The Eagles' defense, usually viewed as their strength, specifically in their secondary, they have not been that great against the run the last two weeks. We talked about it when we were breaking down Bill heading into week two, the running back for the Commanders. We're like, hey, Bill looks pretty good against the Eagles' defense. Last week, you know who looked pretty good against the Eagles' defense? Tony Pollard. Second half, I was like, okay. Like, you're seeing these guys rip off some big runs. And I looked at the two-week sample size. Eagles, ninth most rushing yards allowed this season, fifth highest run rate faced. Despite the fact that they're not playing in games where they or they have leads in a lot of these games, teams are still electing to run the football against them. and the eighth highest EPA per rush allowed. So I agree with Fitz and Welsh about how they're going to try to run the rock here. And I think they might have success doing it. And what is the most demoralizing thing in football is we're going to run the ball. You know, we're going to run the ball and you can't stop us. And Ben Johnson is stubborn enough to continue to do that. So yes, the Eagles have a vendetta against this Bears running attack, but I don't know if they're actually going to be able to stop it. So that's kind of the angle I'm looking at here, especially than playing at home. So I get the Case Keenums, the third string quarterback, but I think you could still see this Bears rushing attack still be effective against an Eagles defense that may be a tad bit overrated after these two weeks.
00:45:48
Speaker 1: All I heard you say was Kyle Monongai rushing yards over. That's the only thing I heard out of all that.
00:45:53
Speaker 2: Who's also on the injury report again this week.
00:45:56
Speaker 4: I know. I know.
00:45:58
Speaker 1: More of a competitive game. That'll be fun. Big game breakdowns. You guys kill that as always. Let's talk about our big calls and the thing to watch. But before we do, I want to give you an autographed jersey. Not of me, but of Todd Gurley. And that's pretty cool. You can get an autographed signed Rams jersey. And here's the only thing you've got to do. Well, there's two things. You've got to subscribe to the Tailgate YouTube channel. As we're recording this, we are like, individual people away from hitting the 2K marker on the tailgate, which would be awesome. Maybe by the time this post hits there. So you just gotta subscribe, maybe be that 2K over, and then drop a comment. Leave a comment below. And that's it. One of the best opportunities to win an awesome prize right here on the tailgate. We'll be announcing a winner on the channel, so turn on notifications so you know when videos are up so you can claim your prize. You don't just get it. You gotta be here to come and claim it and hit us up. Do that today. Subscribe, make a comment, win a Todd Gurley autographed Jersey. Make the calls. I hit my make the call last week, by the way. I said the plus four and a half Vikings were not only in play on the spread, but were a money line play. So thank you very much. I'll be honest with you. I don't remember what the hell you guys said, but I know I was super smart in that. I don't know if I'll be super smart this week, but Pat, why don't you kick us off? Were you super smart last week?
00:47:16
Speaker 3: No, I was really dumb.
00:47:17
Speaker 4: I said Deshaun Watson was going to get benched. He winds up beating Baker Mayhem. Deshaun Watson is eighth in the league in passer rating right now. After that game against the Buccaneers.
00:47:31
Speaker 3: Tough loss for the Buccaneers.
00:47:32
Speaker 1: Make it up this week. Make it up this week. What's your what's your big call?
00:47:36
Speaker 4: I'm going to stay on the quarterbacks unwisely, perhaps. I'm saying Patrick Mahomes throws for 400 plus yards against the Dolphins this week. The Chiefs offenses looked fabulous. I think having a legitimate running game with Kenneth Walker has opened things up for Patrick Mahomes. And this Dolphins secondary is the worst in the league. Maybe the worst in the league in the last 10 years. Like this secondary is putrid.
00:48:00
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:48:00
Speaker 1: Who said that last week, Erickson? Who didn't say that? The Dolphins being terrible? Who didn't say?
00:48:09
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:48:09
Speaker 1: Who didn't say that they were buns? Who did say they were buns? It's right here. I like that call. I would only liked it more if you would have said 400 yards from Patrick Mahomes in the first half. That would have been the only thing that I would have liked a little bit more. Travis Kelsey to the moon on this one. That's a good call. Erickson, from what I remember in my brain, you had a really good call last week as well and you hit it. But I don't remember what the hell you said because I'm just trying to calm down.
00:48:31
Speaker 2: I'm trying to look and see what I because I literally don't remember what I said. I'm trying to look in the.
00:48:35
Speaker 1: Whatever you said was good. I remember you was you getting it. Yeah, well, we'll just go with it, dude. You said something super smart, so say something smart again.
00:48:44
Speaker 2: I don't want to take credit if it wasn't smart, because, I mean, I didn't have a super profitable week from picks and sides, so let's go with this week, though. Quinshawn Judkins running back for the Cleveland Browns. Over 100 rushing yards, two tutties against the Carolina Panthers' atrocious run defense.
00:49:03
Speaker 1: That is the theme in our mascot for Week 3 Prop Show on Betting Pros, just Tune in, all Quenshawn Judkins. We contemplated if we could put together a card of 10 straight plays of Quenshawn Judkins. I don't think we were able to do it. I think we got to like... six, but we attempted it, but that'll be our mascot there. And I almost put this on here, but I wanted to just do something else because I'm going to do it on the prop show. Mine, it's alluding a little bit to, I think Fitzy, you were kind of talking about this earlier. I think this is going to be a get right spot for Drake May. Drake May, it's been bad. And we are seeing the fever pitch of conversation. I think all of us have seen the different, do I play Tyler Shuck over him? Should I trade Drake May? You can feel people are turning and maybe one more game. If there's one more game, you're going to have the real turn. But I think this is a decent spot. Graded out wise, the Jacksonville Jaguars, as much as they're going to be playing on stopping some of the run, they currently rank 23 in wide receiver coverage, 23 in tight end coverage, and they're not covering the backs very well either. So I think this is an opportunity for them to have figured out all the mess over the last two weeks. Romeo Dobbs getting some confidence. They've got some of those. They don't have AJ Brown, but they got some of the other pieces. Travion Henderson got right. Get him involved in the pass game. I think we're going to get the get right game. So people stop complaining about Drake May. It'll be more vintage 250 passing two plus touchdowns. And I think he's going to do some stuff with his legs on the ground. So I'm going to say get right situation for Drake May. that might be the riskiest one.
00:50:40
Speaker 2: I found my prediction from last week.
00:50:43
Speaker 1: Okay. Was it good?
00:50:44
Speaker 2: Bengals beat the Texans.
00:50:45
Speaker 1: Let's go. Pretty good, right? I told you we were pretty good. So we just got to stay away from Shadur Sanders. Like I was tempted to be like, Shadur Sanders goes off. But I was joking with Bogman. Bogman loves Denzel Boston this week and loves Casey Concepcion and loves the Jutkins thing. And I'm like, okay. And he's like 27th on Deshaun Watson. And I'm like, Sorry, brother. You're going to have to love Deshaun Watson if you like all these guys.
00:51:06
Speaker 2: It would be really funny if Fitz is not wrong, but just was a week too early. Oh, it happens this week?
00:51:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because of that, Fitz, a lot of three and outs. You know the Boo Birds are going to be out.
00:51:17
Speaker 1: It's going to take a lot more than that one game to cure that for Shador Sanders, 100%. If you guys are watching on YouTube, leave your favorite call in the comments and then hit the like button and subscribe to the Tailgate channel. We want to see what your biggest calls are for the week. If you're listening on the podcast... follow the show, leave us a comment, and give us a rate in reviewing. It does really help all the NFL fans out there and more NFL fans to find this show. If you watch on YouTube, just if you want to watch us on YouTube, just search Tailgate NFL. That's Tailgate NFL. One thing to watch for this week, my last week was the Chargers, and that was kind of like exactly what it was. And Fitzy, I think you're going to kind of tail back in because I don't disagree. I think this is a like Drake Mays, kind of a fever pitch situation. Like, can we keep going with this? So you're kind of jumping on from my last week one as well with a Charger conversation.
00:52:08
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to see if there are any signs of life for the Chargers in their road game against the Bills. Really tough spot after losing by double digits at home to the Cardinals and Raiders. Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson mentioned this on their podcast this week. The last time a team lost two straight home games by double digits to teams that had had sub 200 winning percentages the season before, It was the 1926 Racine Tornadoes who played one more game after those two losses and then folded as a franchise.
00:52:39
Speaker 1: The Racine Tornadoes? What a name.
00:52:42
Speaker 4: And the Racine Tornadoes, yes, there was wreckage for that franchise after those two losses. And things do not look good for the Chargers in the upcoming six or seven weeks because their schedule is brutal.
00:52:55
Speaker 1: Dude, are they going to be the team that loses all the games? Was I just like, I was on the West coast, but I was.
00:53:00
Speaker 2: Just going to miss the chargers. Probably nobody. Cause they don't have fans. They don't have home games.
00:53:06
Speaker 3: They are.
00:53:06
Speaker 1: Well, no, they did have fans, but yeah, they kind of just, but when they displaced themselves, people, if you.
00:53:11
Speaker 2: Look at their injury report this week, CVS list receipt length, it's brutal.
00:53:20
Speaker 1: Erickson, uh, one thing to watch for week three for.
00:53:23
Speaker 2: You, James Winston, I mean, because if we get the fun Jameis Winston, he is must-watch TV, anything but Aaron Rodgers, like the total opposite. Whatever Aaron Rodgers you don't want to watch, Jameis Winston is what you want to watch. So if they unleash him, especially as a market favorite, 29 games as a market favorite, Jameis Winston is 8, 20, and 1 against the spread, 27%. He is 0-5 in his last five starts. They're favorites here. this should be fun for a myriad of reasons because he could be turnover machine. He could be throwing touchdowns, blink neighbors, four range type of outcome game. And I want to see what happens.
00:54:02
Speaker 1: Dude, by the way, is there an actual better, like yin and yang, like exact opposite player? Like not just from a game script perspective, but like everybody hates Rogers. Everybody loves Winston. The only thing they have in common is they both do talk a lot. It would be like if Rogers never spoke, And then Winston just kept talking. But everything about them, like Winston can throw like four picks and everyone's like, man, I wish he would just do better because I just love that guy. Rodgers throws one at an ankle and everyone's like, I'm out of here.
00:54:33
Speaker 2: Give me Drew Aller.
00:54:34
Speaker 1: Give me Drew Aller. Yeah, it's crazy. They are total polar opposites. My thing to watch here, and I almost want to caveat this because mine is actually a question to you guys to end the show. Who can't recover... from an 0-3 start. And there are five potential teams, I believe two of them are playing each other, or no, four. You've got the Chargers, the Texans, the Colts, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think you guys have placed a kind of a marker that maybe it's the Chargers, but I'm just curious at your take here, and maybe we take out the Chargers. But Erickson, what team cannot recover in your mind from an 0-3 start out of that? And by the way, there's other 0-3 starts, but I meant teams that have some juice to them and we thought were going to be contenders. Again, the Chargers, Texans, Colts, and Tampa Bay.
00:55:28
Speaker 2: I don't think any of these teams can recover. Actually, except the Texans because they were 0-3 last year. So they're the only one that's safe and they could afford to lose here against the Colts. But all these other teams, the Colts are 0-3. Their head coach, GM, is on the hot seat. Ballard could get axed if they start 0-3. That would not shock me, especially the way that this Alec Pierce situation seemingly was botched about when he got his ankle surgery, the contract, they brought him back and he gets re-injured and they're defending it. So they're on the hot seat. Todd Bowles, how bad this Buccaneers team has been 0-11 against the spread their last 11 games. When you're considering expectation, no team has been worse when you're just considering the talent on the roster than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. since the start of the second half of last season into this year. I'd like to say the Chargers could recover, but the schedule does them absolutely no favor. So even if the offense can start clicking in some way, shape, or form, just putting more on Justin Herbert's shoulders, man, the offensive line is banged up. They're not running the ball effectively. Mike McDaniel, what are we doing here? So I'm not hopeful about any of those teams except the Texans because We have proof of concept because they were only three last year and they ended up digging their way out of it and they should get Nico Collins back sometime and that'll give them a boost.
00:56:43
Speaker 1: I like how you turned it. Fitzy, you can do the same thing, but I'd ask you because I have 18. I have one team here. I'm going to say, what is one team that you think cannot recover from an 0-3 start of that list?
00:56:53
Speaker 3: Like Erickson, same answer.
00:56:55
Speaker 4: The only one that actually can is the Texans because they have a special unit with their defense. All these other teams, I mean, the Colts might have the worst defense in the league. they are a disaster. And, you know, as banged up as they are offensively, like it's just, it's hard to see not, not only the Pierce injury, but like Daniel Jones, is he the same guy after the injury he sustained last year?
00:57:19
Speaker 1: And that's my answer. It's the Colts. And I'm the guy that was on here like, Oh, they got up to a hot start last year and then they faltered. I don't think they can recover. I think The Bucs are a talented offensive team. They are kind of going the side of– I mean, their defense is pretty bad too. Baker's just got to get right, and I think they become more competitive. I might be giving too much credit to the Chargers, but I think they are also just like way too talented and way too good of coaching that's existing out there for them to not be competitive. Colts defense is buns. They're a horrible defense. They're missing playmakers. They can't do anything offensively. There's no creativity. And one of the biggest things Erickson and I talked about, I think, yesterday is that one of the most important things is they've got to be able to– it's like shapes. Like in pitching, in baseball, you would talk about pitcher shapes. And what that usually is is like being able to change the eye. There's no shapes on their offense. What I mean by that is they can't stretch the field. Their shape is this right now. Great. You want to live by Jonathan Taylor, but you want to be able to spread out the defense. You want to get the ball to Tyler Warren and Josh Downs. How are they going to be a force to spread out the ball deep? They're not creative offensively. Their defense is just a turnstile. So I just don't think the Colts are a team, unfortunately, of this list. If I had to only pick one, I don't know that they can recover from an 0-3 start. But what do you guys think? Drop it below. Which of those teams cannot recover? Do you think Jameis Winston is going to get like old Jameis Winston? And kind of same related, if the Chargers don't show signs of life, we might have to add them to the list. Love to hear from you guys. When you are subscribed, you make those comments. You can win some cool stuff. Make sure you're subscribed on the YouTube. Let's get over that 2K. Let's celebrate you guys next week. We want you guys to enjoy this week. So much for hanging out. Thank you so much for hanging out with us right here on the tailgate. That's Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson. I am Chris Welsh. We got to get out. Tailgate's over. Game time, baby. Talk to you next time.
00:59:14
Speaker 3: Peace.