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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn't you agree?
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Speaker 2: I've got five dollars?
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Speaker 3: This is a rainable up how they traveled.
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Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be human.
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Speaker 2: My goodness, I don't mistaken the best, relentless, refusing to give up.
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Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn, very bless once of everybody.
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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from the Action Network and Fantasy Abs. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and we got the NFL Draft upcoming, so we thought it'd be good to have our guy Dan back from Rotal Grinders back on the show. Dan, how is it going at a lot of movement in the draft market.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, and a lot of movement.
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Speaker 2: I can't quite explain, knowing how much college football watch last year and some of the some of the movement we've seen on players that I don't think are that good is surprising. But you know what, I'm not a GM of a of a National Football League team. I'm just a talking head here on this podcast. So we're gonna do our best to try and make some money on the draft in a week and a half. But It's great to be here, one of my favorite events of the year.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, it should be should be very interesting, and we'll definitely have some some bets to talk about. And we'll start the show kind of talking about some of those some of those guys that maybe aren't as good as you thought that that were seeing some movements. So we'll get right into that. Before we get started, I just want to remind everyone to go check out rohno Grinders dot com, especially if you're into MLB. They got you covered, and don't forget to subscribe to the Fantasy Flex wherever you get your podcast, Action Network app if you are into betting, the Action Network discord as well. And remember all of our fantasy football content from myself and Sean Kerner and company will be over at Fantasy at labs dot com. All right, Dan, we just have to talk about the quarterback discussion. The quarterback movement. I should say, at the top of the draft, cam Ward still seems like the favorite to go as that first quarterback, but we're seeing some interesting, interesting movement as far as that second quarterback is concerned. I think this all goes back to no one really knows what those teams at the top of the draft want to do talking about teams like the Giants and the Browns. So right now we're seeing for the second quarterback selected Shore Sanders still the favorite at minus two fifty though, so that those odds have come down, and then Jackson Dart is up to minus two hundred and mill Roe Milroe is to plus six hundred, So real quick, just any thoughts on on this movement. I know, I think we briefly touched on, you know, maybe Jackson Dart, you know, it kind of has a chance to move up some boards, but we're really seeing this this all be predicated by kind of a slide by Shud or Sanders. So any thoughts on that, Yeah, a lot.
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Speaker 2: I mean we talked maybe a month ago and we and for us it was like, there's no way the Browns are going into the season with Kenny Pickett and now Joe Flacco is their starters. But apparently they are like and I think there there might be a behind the scenes move for Kirk Cousins that they're they're exploring post draft that they probably can't like discuss too much right now, but it seems like the consensus is that those top three are are it's gonna be It's gonna be Warred and then Hunter and then likely abdual Carter. So the Giants, you know, apparently they've got a meeting with with Sanders, I think today like a private workout. But some people are even saying that's not even for pick number three, that's potentially to move up later in the first if if or when Sanders falls, and you know, for me, I still think it's clearly Sanders is the number two quarterback. I think he's a chance to be a really good quarterback in this league. People are worried about his arm strength. I get it, but you know, Jackson Dart, his mobility is definitely an X factor compared to Shador Sanders, and I think that there's teams that probably value that more than maybe the leadership side of Shoudour because I think he is a great leader.
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Speaker 3: I do, and I think he can he can play the position.
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Speaker 2: At the end of the day, though, I think it's going to boil down to what are the Saints gonna do there around I think it's picked nine, right, are they going to go with quarterback? And if they do, is shouldure their guy because as you stated right now, the second QB taken on bet three six five. It's plus two twenty for Jackson Dart versus minus two hundred for Shaudure, and that is it's clear that people are not sold on Shauduur. I personally, I am a believer in it, but I'm also like a believer in that. Like at this time of year, there's a lot more stuff coming out about teams opinions, and I think we got to believe some of it more than we did, say a month ago, where the evaluation process was still going on. So I got I mean, minus two hundred on Shador on three six five. I hate laying money, but I just can't fathom him not being that second quarterback taken because if he does, if he does go third, for example, somebody could really regret that.
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Speaker 1: And I just.
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Speaker 2: Don't know that Jackson Dart is that much better of a quarterback. So for me, I kind of think the Saints are gonna take him when he falls there, especially when you consider Drew Brees as a quarterback for that team didn't really have a strong arm. So I know, different coaching staff a lot of differences from that regime, but I'm personally don't see Jackson Dart leaping him, but the markets are certainly swinging more towards that way.
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Speaker 1: And this is kind of, you know, it all goes back to how we kind of attack best ball as well, when you kind of want to be drafting throughout the offseason at different points in time so you can get different players at different values. Because the thing about you know, Jackson Dark potentially going number two is that you know this was a possibility, you know, close two of months ago, and we were starting to talk about that, and now his odds are down, So I don't think it's the time to bet him at all. I think you're right, if you're if you're still a believer in standards, then this is the time to kind of, you know, look at him, because now his odds are you know, in the gutter. But I think the bigger picture kind of takeaway from all of this is that teams aren't that sold on this quarterback draft, especially after cam Ward right, So there's there's odds out there, you know, over under two and a half quarterbacks selected in round one, and you can get the under at like plus three forty for example, at plus at a bet three six five. So I think something like that is interesting because you know the Giants, you know, you mentioned, you know, they're talking to Sanders, but potentially about later in the first round, not in that top three Jackson Dart, you know, if he's still considered the number three quarterback and not the number two. If Sanders has falling like this, then maybe Dart does as well. So I think there's starting to be maybe a bigger possibility than anyone thought that you know, it's only cam Ward that goes in the first round, or you know, maybe you know, Sanders still goes, but it's it's late first or even Dart and Sanders falls completely. So I think still getting you know, under two and a half quarterbacks at you know, in the in the three to one range or greater. It's still an interesting.
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Speaker 2: Uh bet in my book, Yeah, I mean, I think it's I think that some of the smoke with Dart is legit. Like I think the Steelers are are a possibility, and I think the Steelers definitely, you know, they need a quarterback still right like right now, or Mason Rudolph or maybe it's Aaron Rodgers. But you know, as time goes by, I think that Aaron Rodgers becomes more and more unlikely.
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Speaker 3: But I'll tell you.
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Speaker 2: Right now that Jalen Milroe is not the answer. And I mean this guy right now, what did we say, like plus one twenty or one thirty to be a first round pick? And that is completely absurd.
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Speaker 3: In my mind.
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Speaker 2: I need to find a not first round pick odds because those you know, those must have have have dropped dramatically because I've watched this guy enough to know this guy is not ready for the prime time, like even even if the Steelers wanted him, like, he's a project at best, and you know, you look at the quarterback position. I think what the Browns and the Giants are looking at is saying, Okay, maybe we aren't sold on these guys, but look at the class you.
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Speaker 3: Have next year.
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Speaker 2: And I know this is weird, but arch Manning, if he decides to go pro, very arguably could be the number one overall pick. I know it's huge thing to say, but in terms of pedigree and expectations for him, I mean he is a massive, massive name. Drew Aller came back for a senior year. A lot of people were saying he was going to be a top five pick this year top ten pick. So there's another guy who's definitely got, you know, a big name, big arm, and a lot of experience.
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Speaker 3: Nussmeyer out of.
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Speaker 2: LSU club, Nick, even Carson Beck, you know, going back to Miami. We'll see how he looks this year. I just think next year's crop of quarterbacks is so much better than this year that I don't personally wouldn't want to be wasting a first round or maybe even a second round because I think these second round players, you got to ask yourself, what's the likelihood that, like this second round quarterback is going to amount to anything.
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Speaker 3: Just ask the Tennessee Titans that question.
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Speaker 2: Remember when Will Levis slid, It's like Will Levis in the second round, Oh, he is terrible. He slid for a reason. He wasn't an NFL caliber quarterback. And personally, I think Milroe kind of falls into that bucket. I think we're crazy to think he has the potential to be an NFL starter. Maybe somebody will clip this and I'll eat those words when he's an All Pro in like three years from now. But that's fine. I just don't see it, especially with the crop we have coming out next year. But you know, the Browns, the Giants, you know, those are the teams and you know, I guess we had the Saints and the Steelers like those are the needy teams out there. Because even a team like the Rams, for example, I could use whoever's going to be that next quarterback. It doesn't make any sense for them, especially with the level of that team right now, to be taking a shot on that in round one, right, that's a that's maybe a round four or five, take.
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Speaker 3: A shot on a guy's a backup.
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Speaker 2: Maybe you run into a Rock Party or Kirk Cousins type of player. But the first three rounds you are getting legit starters and I just don't think you'd do that at the quarterback position personally. So we'll see how it how it runs down, But for me, I do think Dart will probably go in the first round. But I don't hate if that plus money starts getting getting hired to take a shot at you know, under under two and a half.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and this a lot of this could be media driven as well. I mean, you know, the media is falls in love yeah with cause Sanders, he to your point, he is, He's got the intangibles, you know, he's got the processing, he's got a lot of things that you can't really quantify or don't necessarily show up if you just watch a uh, you know, a highlight a few minute highlight package. And so he's not necessarily a sexy pick, and all of a sudden he's starting to slide. So and also, no one really has incentive to say we really want you or Sanders because you know, all these teams are in the market to kind of trade around, you know, at that top three. So uh yeah, it could be a lot of smoke there as well. But I do agree. I think you know, this is this quarterback class is not necessarily one of the stronger ones. All right, Let's let's talk some some positions real quick. And Dan, I know you like to kind of bet on some of these, uh you know, looking at players to a specific teams or teams to draft a specific position. I totally agree. I think these are the kind of the where where the money is made if you're looking to wager on on the draft. Let's start with the Tyler Warren. You know a lot of people are looking for him to go, you know, maybe to the Colts. What do you see for him? You know, going to a specific team, So I.
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Speaker 2: Want to I want to preface this with saying I don't think this is necessarily going to happen. I just think it's really good value for the situation. And it's Tyler Warren going to the Bears. And the reason I'm getting plus six hundred so six to one on FanDuel for this, and that is to not even just to for him to go to the Bears. That's for the Bears to draft a tight end. So even in the off chance the Bears trade down, maybe they take Colts to Loveland late in the first round or mid mid first round, because somebody wants to come up like you have that. So I'm getting that at plus six hundred. Yet if you go to ESPN bet and DraftKings, Tyler Warren to be the actual pick is plus four hundred or plus three fifty. So I think it's just a really good value play. They're on FanDuel at six to one. I think the reasons I don't hate it is, you know, you look at Ben Johnson. Last year, no team ran more twelve personnel than the Detroit Lions did, So for them to want to get another tight end to kind of match up with Cole Comet makes sense. Now, some people will say they got Durham Smythe in the offseason and they signed Comet to a long term deal, But Smythe is a one year deal, not a not a big deal. That doesn't scare me off too much. But we know that Johnson wants to add playmakers to that offense around Caleb Williams. I think everyone thought the offensive line was going to be the way to go, but they really bolstered that in free agency. So I think this is a sneaky good pick, especially with like Jenty likely off the board by the time the Bears pick again. It's six to one for a tight end for Chicago, doesn't even need to be Tyler Warren likely will be if it happens, But it gives you an extra out in case they trade down, which you know, those small little edges you got to look at too, because again, like you got to shop around this time of year, because again getting a position versus a particular player and at better odds like duh, like, you definitely want to do that. So I'm throwing that one out there, not that I it's a likelihood, but I think it's a really good value.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've seen, you know, in a ton of mocks. It's been the two guys I've seen to the Bears. You know. It started, you know, earlier in the offseason. I think it was it was genty a little more, and as he's kind of risen, it's been Tyler Warren. And I think the key is they probably were probably absolutely would take Ashton Gensy if he fell to them, but at this point it doesn't look like he will. And you mentioned the offensive line, if you kind of shored that up, so they're in position now, especially with this new regime, you know, an offensive driven one to take kind of a luxury pick almost at that position. And I think a guy like Warren would be that because you know, Comet, it seemed even the last coaching staff wasn't completely sold on him because he came up, he was coming up a really good year, and you know, still he disappeared at times. Maybe it's a Kayleb Williams thing, who knows, but it just seemed like Kayleb Williams and co Comett did not hit it off the way that you know Comet did with Justin Fields. And you know, the quarterbacks before Williams. So uh yeah, I think it's quite a possibility and definitely kind of one of those top two outcomes that I've seen all across mock draft, pretty much all off season for the for the Bears.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, and Brock Bauers having just an awesome season last year. Just I think for the longest time we're like, oh, we don't want to take tight ends early, they're going to slow to adapt. I think that that mine could change a little bit with the success he had last season.
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Speaker 3: And Tyler Warren, you.
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Speaker 2: Know, kind of different player than than Bauers, but also put up just unbelievable numbers at Penn State. Can do a lot of different things besides, you know, just being that you know that that pass catching tight end. Dude can run it, dude can block, you can do it all. So I think he's I think he's a good player. I think he's probably gonna go in that top ten. There's even some talks he could go to the Jets a little bit before the Bears, so we'll see. But I like him as a prospect.
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Speaker 1: I feel like the Saints are like the chameleon of the draft in terms of like, no one knows what position they're gonna go, and then Tyer Warren is like, no one really knows what team is going to go. It's like anytime there's an opening, it's like, okay, yeah, he might go there.
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Speaker 2: Fit.
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Speaker 1: Speaking of which, you know the Broncos. Let's talk about the Broncos. They of course signed Evan Ingram at tight end in the offseason, and yet we still think they're in the market for a skill player, at least the markets do. Running Back, wide receiver, and tight end are three of the top four favorites for the Broncos in terms of position of their first drafted player. What are you see in there?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I am.
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Speaker 2: I'm looking at running back to the Denver Broncos plus one forty as the price I think that was on DraftKings and the reason I've kind of swung this way, and I know it's kind of the favorite, and we talked a couple of weeks ago. Maybe that's a bet that you can look past the favorite. But I mean that running back room is just dreadful. If you ask me, I'm not drafting a running back in the first round. I think get guys like Caleb Johnson, Devin Neil later in the draft who could be really serviceful running backs, kind of like we saw with Bucky Irving and some other later round picks who can be effective. But with that said, you know, Juliel McLoughlin, audrac Estima, I mean, these guys are no good in my eyes. So o Mario Hampton is kind of the chalky name. But then there's some talk like, well, maybe the Bears take him if Genti's gone, and I think that's actually like a really good reason to consider this, Like maybe I don't want to go there, But what we are seeing is that Traveon Williams or Trayvon Henderson excuse me from Ohio State is getting a lot of momentum as a first round pick, to the point where the market for three running backs drafted in the first round is plus one fifteen. So it's almost like even money that we're gonna get three running backs, And that makes me believe that, Okay, Denver's gonna walk away with one, whether it's Hampton dropping down to him or maybe they got to take Henderson if Hampton goes in front of him. So that gives me a little bit of comfort at that plus one forty number, which again I don't love eating chalk. Sometimes you gotta kind of gotta truck eat the favorite. But at plus one forty it is still some plus money on this. So that's where I just feel like it's a it's just a massive, massive need and there's just a lot of momentum for us to have an extra running back go in that first round.
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Speaker 3: So I'm buying into that.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, with wide receiver as the second most favored you know, spot position for the Denver Broncos, I think people are underestimating how much they like Marvin Mims. I mean Marvin Mims, like down the stretch was you know, putting up top tier fantasy numbers, and you know, he was playing more and more and they really like him. And I know they want kind of a movable chess piece here, and I think you look at wide receiver, they kind of have that, and Mims, you know, tight end you can do some things with anger. So I think running back would be that obvious position where uh, they would look for something like that. And I think big, bigger picture, it just kind of speaks to the fact that this seems to be more of a kind of a run game focused draft than in years past. I feel like we're seeing quarterbacks drop, We're seeing you know, wide receive, the wide receiver market not being you know, terribly terribly you know, hyped up this, and then we're you know, the tight ends. You know, we we're seeing, uh, you know, the guy who is kind of a more complete guy, he's gonna he's gonna go early. And then you know, we think that the pass catching guy is gonna go, is gonna go right after him, but we don't know exactly where. So I do think this draft is kind of shifting with a more than the running back position. Maybe it's maybe it's because of what happened with the Eagles and Saquon and you know, of course the Ravens and Henry or whatnot. I don't know. Maybe it's just kind of the way teams are great in these classes, but kind of to that, you know, related to that. That's why I still I'm still looking at uh, you know, when you look at these wide receivers, because I think the if you think the Broncos in the market for a wide receiver, you have to consider you know, Okay, Ted McMillan is still that number one favorite guy to be taken at at wide receiver. Golden is still number two, and I know, you know, McMillan has a kind of a better track record overall, but I still think there's value there on Golden at a plus one ninety five. It's kind of exactly what you're talking about. I think that a lot of these teams are going to prioritize other positions to the point where that that speed of Golden still may be valued a little higher than a guy like McMillan. And maybe this maybe it's just an indictment on McMillan, who, you know, maybe kind of like at the two court and the number two quarterbacks spot, where teams just aren't super high on him. And that's why we're we're not really seeing a bunch of buzz about these different wide receivers. So I still I still think there's a very good shot that Golden goes over him. And both of them have had eight Top thirty visits, so it's been about equal in that in that realm. So that's where I'm looking to kind of profit off that because I think the Broncos would be one of those teams that you'd have to consider taking taking a wide receiver, but I do think they're more likely to take a running back.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I actually think that Golden is not the worst call there to Denver. And I say that because I actually think Tet McMillan's kind of like of the the Courtland Sutton kind of body type. Like I don't know if they would go that route. I think it would either be him, or you know, even a guy like Agbuka or Luther Burden or somebody like that who could.
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Speaker 3: Mix it up a little bit. I I you know, there's a.
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Speaker 2: Lot of momentum with Golden to be starting to be selected over Tet McMillan, And this is one of those things that like, I don't.
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Speaker 3: Agree with it.
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Speaker 2: I saw Matthew Golden this year, good player, but arguably not even the best receiver on his team.
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Speaker 3: Isaiah Bond could have.
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Speaker 2: Made that argument, Hey Bob, Yeah yeah, And and you know he was he was pretty good at Houston the year before. But at no point did I look at this guy and I'm like, man, first round NFL draft pick, like no brainer. And we see it every year where somebody runs a good forty and then next thing you know, their stock just absolutely skyrockets, whether it's a Henry Ruggs or the kid from Clemson a few years I think it was Clemson a few years ago, John Ross or that's what it was.
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Speaker 3: Ross. Yeah, he wasn't Clemson.
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Speaker 2: But we see it all the time where like suddenly a guy runs that number, their stock goes way up. And McMillan is not a flashy athlete. Okay, don't get me wrong, he is not. That is not his game whatsoever. So I would take him just because I think he's a little bit of a different type of receiver that you're seeing less and less of. To be honest with you, like he's like Keon Coleman last year, right, like another guy who kind of had high expectations and then really dropped as the draft went on just because he didn't didn't run great routes and ye. And I think the book is still out on whether how good of a pro he's going to be. But I don't hate that bet as a reality because we see it happen every year. I'm not of that mindset, but we know a lot of the guys in the NFL who who judge players are.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I actually, you know that was one of like the first I remember when I was first really getting into bet in the draft, Henry Ruggs to be the number one receiver taken was actually one of the first big bets I made, and kind of for the same reason. It was like, I don't necessarily think he's the best receiver in the cross, but I just look at this draft in the way, you know, what's being emphasized, who's but who's kind of getting hyped up and what's not, And it just seems to me that more and more it's that speed aspect. Look at I mean, look at even Xavier Worthy and how the Chiefs used him last year. You know, it's like a lot of people didn't think he was even a first round caliber guy or like, and by the end of the year, I mean, he was being used pretty much as much as any receiver in the league. And I think it was just because of you know, teams cove at that speed and they feel like they can get maybe a guy was not not as uh skilled as McMillan, but with some of the traits a little further down and kind of used him as as such. You know, so and I know Sean Payton, you know what was Marcus Colston was even was he was a late round pick.
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Speaker 2: If I ye, like yeah, very like six to seventh rounder if I remember correct.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, So try and then Vayley. I mean they got Veyley who was kind of a late round guy, and you know he did some things for them last year too, So I could see them kind of you know, if they go that direction, going for speed. But I do think it's likely to be the running back position if they go to a skill player for the Broncos, which I think they should. Speaking of skill guys, you know Ashton Genty, I think he he's kind of the guy who if you're looking at skill positions in this draft, he kind of sets everything off because wherever he goes, that's going to kind of dictate what some of these other teams are going to to do and be able to do. Specifically the Bears, I think, uh, when you look at Genty and uh, you know where he could potentially go, which I think is anywhere, especially with these quarterbacks sliding, where where do you see? What? What specific team do you are you looking at for him?
00:24:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna eat a little bit of uh eat the price here a little bit. I think genty the Raiders is the play, and he's minus won forty five on ESPN bets, so it's not like you're you're paying minus three hundred or something on this.
00:25:14
Speaker 3: So you know, I'm.
00:25:15
Speaker 2: Okay laying that on a guy that he just fits everything that this team does in the draft taking, you know, the flashy guy, the speed guy, the offensive play like, that's what the Raiders do every single year. And the only thing that could prevent this from happening, and this is my my hedge on this bet would be Jacksonville the pick before them trading that to somebody who wants Aston Genty, maybe Denver, you know, for example, maybe they come up and say, we want to make a splash, we want to get we want to get genty. So what I'm doing here is I bet genty to the Raiders minus one forty five. But I went ahead and found pick number five to be ash and Genty at ten to one.
00:26:01
Speaker 3: I think that was unfanduel.
00:26:03
Speaker 2: So therefore, if the Jaguars trade out, great, you're hitting on a ten to one bet.
00:26:09
Speaker 3: You're not the end of the world. But if they.
00:26:13
Speaker 2: Don't trade out, Dan, I feel damn confident that it's going to be genty going to the Raiders. It just checks too many boxes for them. Raheem Mostert had three point three yards per carry last season. Like he's washed. I don't care that they went and got him in free agency. Zamir White's terrible. They don't have any production in that position, and with you know, the new coaching staff, and you know they've got rock Bowers there kind of in that tight end position. They new receivers too, don't get me wrong, but we've seen the big slide there and I think they're probably in a position to pick one up maybe in round two. I just think Genti the Raiders is too good of a price, especially at a ten to one hedge, that somebody kind of leapfrogs him, because I don't see that happening with any of those picks before. I think it's a it's a clear fall off when the Jags pick at five, and I don't even know if they even want to take the kid from Michigan. So that's a possibility, but it's a way to cover yourself if that happens.
00:27:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, speaking of that, I think I think when it was it was you and I talking about a month ago that, I mean, the Jazz could even draft him and maybe it's to trade him or something like that. So I think when we were talking, you know, the Jags odds to take a running back first were like something like plus four thousand. They're down to plus six hundred. So yeah, you know, you talk about kind of you know, just like in basketball, you want to be drafting throughout the offseason so you can get you know, different guys outside of their peak value points at kind of at their low value points. And I think that's the way to do it. And yeah, you could have had a crazy Hedgehound just them taking him as well, which could I mean still happen. According to the market now they're up to fourth running backs up the fourth most likely for them after D line, O line and linebacker. So it's very interesting there. But I do think the Raiders it makes the most sense. And that's why, you know, going back to the Bears to take potentially a guy like Tyer Warren makes sense too, because I think the I don't think genty would slip past the Bears No. At ten, but it doesn't seem like he's going to get there, and the Raiders sitting there at six is a big reason why.
00:28:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know, like the Bears again, they could go to the Jags and say, hey, we know gent's not going to get to us, what do you want for that? And that's actually pretty reasonable because a team like the Broncos is way further down in the draft. You got to give away that much more up where you know, maybe the Bears need to give up like a second and a third and maybe a second next year or something to move up to get gents. It's a little bit easier than giving up maybe future first round picks like you'd have to do if you're coming from way back.
00:28:47
Speaker 3: So that's a.
00:28:49
Speaker 2: Possibility Bears could do it. And again, if it does, that's fine. Just do it with Jacksonville, not New England.
00:28:54
Speaker 1: And you've seen with Ben Johnson when he was on the you know, when he was with the Lion the Lions were aggressive in the first round, moving up to get offensive weapons like Jamier Gibbs. A lot of people were surprised that he went that they took him that high, and then James and Williams as well. So yeah, I don't think it's out of the question that the Bears are aggressive here. Especially again with what they've done on the offensive line and the fact that they now have their franchise quarterback and all that. So they're in the position to kind of turn things upside down at the top of that draft. And I think it would be for a guy like it would be for Jens. I think that would be that would be the play. All right, let's before we get out of here to talk about one more team, the Buffalo Bills. We talked about Coleman earlier. You know, they tried out of Mark Cooper last year as well. So I've I've heard some people talk about, you know, wide receiver to them, what are you what are you thinking for them? For you know, first position of first drafted player.
00:29:51
Speaker 3: You nailed it.
00:29:52
Speaker 2: I think it's wide receiver, but it's wide receiver at a massive price. Fifteen to one I found on the Bills. I think that was DraftKings. Yeah, I mean that's a big number.
00:30:02
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:30:02
Speaker 2: So like again, when we're when we're acknowledging and saying that we like this bet, we're not saying we necessarily think it's going to happen, but we definitely think there's a better than fifteen to one chance that it's going to happen, and it's very simple. You look at two things here.
00:30:19
Speaker 3: Just their current.
00:30:21
Speaker 2: Roster of wide receivers leaves a lot to be desired, right, I mean, key on Coleman, you know, yes, they spent a first round draft pick on him last year. Wasn't terrible, certainly wasn't great. Long way to go, MARII Cooper, didn't do anything, didn't even resign him, Mac mac Collins. I mean, they're just all in all, like their whole wide receiving spot is nothing to get excited about. And what I like about this draft is we see a lot of these wide receivers falling ye, and I think there's a lot of guys who kind of fit that speedy, mid sized receiver that I think would fit them very well. A guy like Luther Burden, who a year ago would have been a top ten pick, had a terrible season last year, dropped dramatically, but kind of would fit that system, or even a Mecca a BUCA, Like his draft prop right now is twenty nine and a half, so he's a guy who's going to be around late in that first round. Jayden Higgins has done really well in the offseason out of Iowa State had a great year last year, but is impressed.
00:31:27
Speaker 3: At the combine.
00:31:28
Speaker 2: So I like the talent at that position when they're picking late in that first round, and I could just see them looking at and saying, hey, man, like this guy is just the best player on the board.
00:31:39
Speaker 3: We have some need there. Let's let's take another wide receiver.
00:31:43
Speaker 2: They still really haven't found anybody to replace Steph Diggs, and I don't think it's key on Coleman. So I think at fifteen to one, my goodness, like, yeah, let's take a shot at that.
00:31:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you love that because, like you said, they're sitting they're sitting there late in the first round. Wide receivers are fallen, and when you look at that kind of yeah, those mid sized guys, those guys are maybe some speed right now, you know, you got your here. He's been he's been great. He's okay, yeah, yeah, he's been great for them because they didn't have anybody else last year. But then you look at their other two starters right now, Pencil. Then they spent a little bit of money on Josh Palmer, but he's six, and then you got a and then Colin six four two fifteen so you can kind of use the guy with a little more explosion because to your point, you know, Coleman and Palmer, both of those guys kind of fit the mold a little bit more of you know, long term, like Okay, this is our number four guy, Like this is our guy. I know Palmer's been good, you know, stepping in at times for other guys, but realistically you'd like him now kind of yeah, yeah, he's gonna like him as Yeah.
00:32:43
Speaker 2: No, no, he's like he's a great number two or three, Like yeah, right now, he's arguably their number one. And maybe you could say it's shakier, but he's more of a slot guy, right, So, like they gotta find somebody, and I'm telling you it's not Josh Palmer, And it's like you got your channeling in his prime here, dude, Like, let's get him some weapons and see what see, see what what happens? Who knows, like how this goes, but the price is too good at fifteen to one. I think I think it was I think it was our friend Evan Silva who had him in his latest mock taking taking Luther Burden, And I think that would actually be a pretty good fit if if it happened.
00:33:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, because on one hand, you kind of look at it and you say, Okay, they drafted Kincaid and they go Coleman early, and you know, maybe they don't want to do go to another skill guy. But at the same time, you're kind of looking at it like, well, Josh Allenson is prime. They just signed him to a big contract extension, and they they're but they've been so good that they they still have that luxury of kind of swinging you know, swinging on on on an offensive weapon late in the first round here, you know, so I definitely think at that price, you got to look at it with this current wide receiver depth track, because yeah, I mean, Shakira is just their default number one, and like he's he he's a good player, but I don't think he should be in that position long term, especially with a guy like Josh Allen, Like that's just you should be aiming higher than that if you're the Buffalo Bills. So yeah, totally great, they could use another weapon. We saw that, you know, in the in the playoffs where they you know, it was tight, it was too tight with Kansas City, where I thought they had a chance to blow hm out. Maybe if they had played they had a better receiving court because they had to be very religned on the legs of Josh Allen and James Cook in that game.
00:34:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, fifteen to one.
00:34:27
Speaker 2: That's on DraftKings, by the way, if other people, if people want to tail that one, so I think we could see some movement if if more. Again, a lot of this is mock draft driven. Like more of these mocks come out and start putting guys, and it only takes one or two guys to start like doing you know, like plugging that in their mock draft to have it start moving markets.
00:34:49
Speaker 3: And then when that.
00:34:50
Speaker 2: Happens, and then maybe you can come back and find a nice plus you know, two fifty on a on a on a defensive end or something, right like like this is the fund of drafting, betting on the draft, and that's why we really, I mean, I wouldn't say you lost all your opportunity, but like I mean, even cam Ward he was he was literally like even money, like yeah, a month and a half ago and now it's just like a foregone conclusion. I wish I wasn't so enamored with Travis Hunter to it, Like I think that was like just a major bias of mine, Raybond, because I love Travis Hunter so much and I can't fathom him not being the best player in this draft. To like, if I took those blinders off, I probably should have just bet cam Ward because he was the safest thing. But I think, deep in my heart, I wanted it to be Travis Hunter.
00:35:39
Speaker 1: But it's gonna cost you never know, And I mean to your point, Will Loves was terrible. I I thought, do we get it? But yeah, I mean, you know, if if people was into this pod, you know, we were on, we were on. We were on cam Ward to go number one and Titans and all that. So I mean, there's there's definitely like the real important thing is kind you're not going to hit everything, no, but you know, kind of the the more kind of spaced out you can get these just like your best ball draft, the more you can kind of get you know, drafted or bet at different points, get guys at peak value. You can kind of fade guys when they're getting over hyped. I think that's the way to do it. So we might be looking, you know, look at this pod in a week or two and they you know, we might have some great values here, we might have some things that you no longer want, you probably no longer want to touch. So that's just how it goes with the with the draft.
00:36:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And you never know because like as soon as this draft's over, then they start like opening markets for next year's draft, which is kind of silly to bet unless it's a guy like Trevor Lawrence who you like, are a positive that he's going to go pro and go number one. That I had money tied up for like twelve months on that like number one pick at it. It was still like minus one seventy five or something, but I was like, there's zero chance that he's not going to go number one, just because of the hype that was around him. So you know, look at these you know, futures as portfolios, right, Like that's the way to do it, you know, I know, you know a lot of people like you know, betting quickly getting their return reinvesting. When I bet futures or even prop betting like like this, it's like building that portfolio, put it all together, and then see what your ROI is at the end.
00:37:15
Speaker 3: So but it's fun.
00:37:16
Speaker 2: It makes the weekend that much more enjoyable. You know, we get the draft Thursday Friday, what's Saturday now, so three extra days to bet on something football related. So I hope everybody kind of takes a look. And I'm sure we'll have plenty of articles and other content here on action in the in the coming weeks. But yeah, it's a fun, fun time.
00:37:36
Speaker 1: I mean, and West did only take you twelve months to profit of Trevor Lawrence de jaguary going on for five years now? Right? But great stuff, Dan, Tell everybody what you got going on, where they can find you and all that good stuff.
00:37:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we're just we're crushing it over at Rotogrinders for baseball.
00:37:54
Speaker 3: I think there's a ton of great services for.
00:37:57
Speaker 2: Dfs in the world of of dfs right now. There's so many, so many great, great sites out there. But I am fully convinced we have the best baseball product out there. We've got Derek Carty's projections exclusively at roto Grinders. We've got Dave Pott's Akcheese is good. He writes the most thorough MLB article you could imagine. So if you're into baseball or want to try dfs, give us a look. At rotogrinders and then just know like Bestball season, as soon as the draft happens, it's kind of best Ball gets started. So we've got a ton of great stuff lined up for you at Fantasy Labs. Our season long product, you know Chris and Shawn with that's going to be coming back again this year, but we're going to add Best Ball to it. So basically, might as well subscribe to summer get all the rankings that we've got happening for Best Ball for you to draft your teams all summer long, and then of course end of summer you're ready to draft your season long leagues. You already got all of Chris and Sewan's content in that subscription, So just one price all year long, and we're gonna we're really really pumped about it was a great first year with that product on Fantasy Labs, and we're investing into it to make it even better this year. We listen to some of the user feedback, so gonna be more customizable, gonna be more for the mobile user.
00:39:16
Speaker 3: So really keep your eye out.
00:39:18
Speaker 2: I think the next couple months we're gonna have some awesome stuff regarding the season long product that Chris and Shawn Do on Fantasy Labs, so stay tuned for that.
00:39:28
Speaker 1: Yes sir, and make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Flex podcast wherever you get your pods. Don't forget the Action Network podcast for Dan Bock. I am Chris Raybon. Until next time, Let's get this money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn't you agree?
00:00:06
Speaker 2: I've got five dollars?
00:00:07
Speaker 3: This is a rainable up how they traveled.
00:00:14
Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be human.
00:00:24
Speaker 2: My goodness, I don't mistaken the best, relentless, refusing to give up.
00:00:31
Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn, very bless once of everybody.
00:00:37
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from the Action Network and Fantasy Abs. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and we got the NFL Draft upcoming, so we thought it'd be good to have our guy Dan back from Rotal Grinders back on the show. Dan, how is it going at a lot of movement in the draft market.
00:00:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, and a lot of movement.
00:00:57
Speaker 2: I can't quite explain, knowing how much college football watch last year and some of the some of the movement we've seen on players that I don't think are that good is surprising. But you know what, I'm not a GM of a of a National Football League team. I'm just a talking head here on this podcast. So we're gonna do our best to try and make some money on the draft in a week and a half. But It's great to be here, one of my favorite events of the year.
00:01:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, it should be should be very interesting, and we'll definitely have some some bets to talk about. And we'll start the show kind of talking about some of those some of those guys that maybe aren't as good as you thought that that were seeing some movements. So we'll get right into that. Before we get started, I just want to remind everyone to go check out rohno Grinders dot com, especially if you're into MLB. They got you covered, and don't forget to subscribe to the Fantasy Flex wherever you get your podcast, Action Network app if you are into betting, the Action Network discord as well. And remember all of our fantasy football content from myself and Sean Kerner and company will be over at Fantasy at labs dot com. All right, Dan, we just have to talk about the quarterback discussion. The quarterback movement. I should say, at the top of the draft, cam Ward still seems like the favorite to go as that first quarterback, but we're seeing some interesting, interesting movement as far as that second quarterback is concerned. I think this all goes back to no one really knows what those teams at the top of the draft want to do talking about teams like the Giants and the Browns. So right now we're seeing for the second quarterback selected Shore Sanders still the favorite at minus two fifty though, so that those odds have come down, and then Jackson Dart is up to minus two hundred and mill Roe Milroe is to plus six hundred, So real quick, just any thoughts on on this movement. I know, I think we briefly touched on, you know, maybe Jackson Dart, you know, it kind of has a chance to move up some boards, but we're really seeing this this all be predicated by kind of a slide by Shud or Sanders. So any thoughts on that, Yeah, a lot.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: I mean we talked maybe a month ago and we and for us it was like, there's no way the Browns are going into the season with Kenny Pickett and now Joe Flacco is their starters. But apparently they are like and I think there there might be a behind the scenes move for Kirk Cousins that they're they're exploring post draft that they probably can't like discuss too much right now, but it seems like the consensus is that those top three are are it's gonna be It's gonna be Warred and then Hunter and then likely abdual Carter. So the Giants, you know, apparently they've got a meeting with with Sanders, I think today like a private workout. But some people are even saying that's not even for pick number three, that's potentially to move up later in the first if if or when Sanders falls, and you know, for me, I still think it's clearly Sanders is the number two quarterback. I think he's a chance to be a really good quarterback in this league. People are worried about his arm strength. I get it, but you know, Jackson Dart, his mobility is definitely an X factor compared to Shador Sanders, and I think that there's teams that probably value that more than maybe the leadership side of Shoudour because I think he is a great leader.
00:04:29
Speaker 3: I do, and I think he can he can play the position.
00:04:32
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, though, I think it's going to boil down to what are the Saints gonna do there around I think it's picked nine, right, are they going to go with quarterback? And if they do, is shouldure their guy because as you stated right now, the second QB taken on bet three six five. It's plus two twenty for Jackson Dart versus minus two hundred for Shaudure, and that is it's clear that people are not sold on Shauduur. I personally, I am a believer in it, but I'm also like a believer in that. Like at this time of year, there's a lot more stuff coming out about teams opinions, and I think we got to believe some of it more than we did, say a month ago, where the evaluation process was still going on. So I got I mean, minus two hundred on Shador on three six five. I hate laying money, but I just can't fathom him not being that second quarterback taken because if he does, if he does go third, for example, somebody could really regret that.
00:05:33
Speaker 1: And I just.
00:05:34
Speaker 2: Don't know that Jackson Dart is that much better of a quarterback. So for me, I kind of think the Saints are gonna take him when he falls there, especially when you consider Drew Brees as a quarterback for that team didn't really have a strong arm. So I know, different coaching staff a lot of differences from that regime, but I'm personally don't see Jackson Dart leaping him, but the markets are certainly swinging more towards that way.
00:06:00
Speaker 1: And this is kind of, you know, it all goes back to how we kind of attack best ball as well, when you kind of want to be drafting throughout the offseason at different points in time so you can get different players at different values. Because the thing about you know, Jackson Dark potentially going number two is that you know this was a possibility, you know, close two of months ago, and we were starting to talk about that, and now his odds are down, So I don't think it's the time to bet him at all. I think you're right, if you're if you're still a believer in standards, then this is the time to kind of, you know, look at him, because now his odds are you know, in the gutter. But I think the bigger picture kind of takeaway from all of this is that teams aren't that sold on this quarterback draft, especially after cam Ward right, So there's there's odds out there, you know, over under two and a half quarterbacks selected in round one, and you can get the under at like plus three forty for example, at plus at a bet three six five. So I think something like that is interesting because you know the Giants, you know, you mentioned, you know, they're talking to Sanders, but potentially about later in the first round, not in that top three Jackson Dart, you know, if he's still considered the number three quarterback and not the number two. If Sanders has falling like this, then maybe Dart does as well. So I think there's starting to be maybe a bigger possibility than anyone thought that you know, it's only cam Ward that goes in the first round, or you know, maybe you know, Sanders still goes, but it's it's late first or even Dart and Sanders falls completely. So I think still getting you know, under two and a half quarterbacks at you know, in the in the three to one range or greater. It's still an interesting.
00:07:41
Speaker 2: Uh bet in my book, Yeah, I mean, I think it's I think that some of the smoke with Dart is legit. Like I think the Steelers are are a possibility, and I think the Steelers definitely, you know, they need a quarterback still right like right now, or Mason Rudolph or maybe it's Aaron Rodgers. But you know, as time goes by, I think that Aaron Rodgers becomes more and more unlikely.
00:08:04
Speaker 3: But I'll tell you.
00:08:05
Speaker 2: Right now that Jalen Milroe is not the answer. And I mean this guy right now, what did we say, like plus one twenty or one thirty to be a first round pick? And that is completely absurd.
00:08:18
Speaker 3: In my mind.
00:08:19
Speaker 2: I need to find a not first round pick odds because those you know, those must have have have dropped dramatically because I've watched this guy enough to know this guy is not ready for the prime time, like even even if the Steelers wanted him, like, he's a project at best, and you know, you look at the quarterback position. I think what the Browns and the Giants are looking at is saying, Okay, maybe we aren't sold on these guys, but look at the class you.
00:08:48
Speaker 3: Have next year.
00:08:48
Speaker 2: And I know this is weird, but arch Manning, if he decides to go pro, very arguably could be the number one overall pick. I know it's huge thing to say, but in terms of pedigree and expectations for him, I mean he is a massive, massive name. Drew Aller came back for a senior year. A lot of people were saying he was going to be a top five pick this year top ten pick. So there's another guy who's definitely got, you know, a big name, big arm, and a lot of experience.
00:09:15
Speaker 3: Nussmeyer out of.
00:09:15
Speaker 2: LSU club, Nick, even Carson Beck, you know, going back to Miami. We'll see how he looks this year. I just think next year's crop of quarterbacks is so much better than this year that I don't personally wouldn't want to be wasting a first round or maybe even a second round because I think these second round players, you got to ask yourself, what's the likelihood that, like this second round quarterback is going to amount to anything.
00:09:39
Speaker 3: Just ask the Tennessee Titans that question.
00:09:40
Speaker 2: Remember when Will Levis slid, It's like Will Levis in the second round, Oh, he is terrible. He slid for a reason. He wasn't an NFL caliber quarterback. And personally, I think Milroe kind of falls into that bucket. I think we're crazy to think he has the potential to be an NFL starter. Maybe somebody will clip this and I'll eat those words when he's an All Pro in like three years from now. But that's fine. I just don't see it, especially with the crop we have coming out next year. But you know, the Browns, the Giants, you know, those are the teams and you know, I guess we had the Saints and the Steelers like those are the needy teams out there. Because even a team like the Rams, for example, I could use whoever's going to be that next quarterback. It doesn't make any sense for them, especially with the level of that team right now, to be taking a shot on that in round one, right, that's a that's maybe a round four or five, take.
00:10:32
Speaker 3: A shot on a guy's a backup.
00:10:34
Speaker 2: Maybe you run into a Rock Party or Kirk Cousins type of player. But the first three rounds you are getting legit starters and I just don't think you'd do that at the quarterback position personally. So we'll see how it how it runs down, But for me, I do think Dart will probably go in the first round. But I don't hate if that plus money starts getting getting hired to take a shot at you know, under under two and a half.
00:11:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this a lot of this could be media driven as well. I mean, you know, the media is falls in love yeah with cause Sanders, he to your point, he is, He's got the intangibles, you know, he's got the processing, he's got a lot of things that you can't really quantify or don't necessarily show up if you just watch a uh, you know, a highlight a few minute highlight package. And so he's not necessarily a sexy pick, and all of a sudden he's starting to slide. So and also, no one really has incentive to say we really want you or Sanders because you know, all these teams are in the market to kind of trade around, you know, at that top three. So uh yeah, it could be a lot of smoke there as well. But I do agree. I think you know, this is this quarterback class is not necessarily one of the stronger ones. All right, Let's let's talk some some positions real quick. And Dan, I know you like to kind of bet on some of these, uh you know, looking at players to a specific teams or teams to draft a specific position. I totally agree. I think these are the kind of the where where the money is made if you're looking to wager on on the draft. Let's start with the Tyler Warren. You know a lot of people are looking for him to go, you know, maybe to the Colts. What do you see for him? You know, going to a specific team, So I.
00:12:09
Speaker 2: Want to I want to preface this with saying I don't think this is necessarily going to happen. I just think it's really good value for the situation. And it's Tyler Warren going to the Bears. And the reason I'm getting plus six hundred so six to one on FanDuel for this, and that is to not even just to for him to go to the Bears. That's for the Bears to draft a tight end. So even in the off chance the Bears trade down, maybe they take Colts to Loveland late in the first round or mid mid first round, because somebody wants to come up like you have that. So I'm getting that at plus six hundred. Yet if you go to ESPN bet and DraftKings, Tyler Warren to be the actual pick is plus four hundred or plus three fifty. So I think it's just a really good value play. They're on FanDuel at six to one. I think the reasons I don't hate it is, you know, you look at Ben Johnson. Last year, no team ran more twelve personnel than the Detroit Lions did, So for them to want to get another tight end to kind of match up with Cole Comet makes sense. Now, some people will say they got Durham Smythe in the offseason and they signed Comet to a long term deal, But Smythe is a one year deal, not a not a big deal. That doesn't scare me off too much. But we know that Johnson wants to add playmakers to that offense around Caleb Williams. I think everyone thought the offensive line was going to be the way to go, but they really bolstered that in free agency. So I think this is a sneaky good pick, especially with like Jenty likely off the board by the time the Bears pick again. It's six to one for a tight end for Chicago, doesn't even need to be Tyler Warren likely will be if it happens, But it gives you an extra out in case they trade down, which you know, those small little edges you got to look at too, because again, like you got to shop around this time of year, because again getting a position versus a particular player and at better odds like duh, like, you definitely want to do that. So I'm throwing that one out there, not that I it's a likelihood, but I think it's a really good value.
00:14:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've seen, you know, in a ton of mocks. It's been the two guys I've seen to the Bears. You know. It started, you know, earlier in the offseason. I think it was it was genty a little more, and as he's kind of risen, it's been Tyler Warren. And I think the key is they probably were probably absolutely would take Ashton Gensy if he fell to them, but at this point it doesn't look like he will. And you mentioned the offensive line, if you kind of shored that up, so they're in position now, especially with this new regime, you know, an offensive driven one to take kind of a luxury pick almost at that position. And I think a guy like Warren would be that because you know, Comet, it seemed even the last coaching staff wasn't completely sold on him because he came up, he was coming up a really good year, and you know, still he disappeared at times. Maybe it's a Kayleb Williams thing, who knows, but it just seemed like Kayleb Williams and co Comett did not hit it off the way that you know Comet did with Justin Fields. And you know, the quarterbacks before Williams. So uh yeah, I think it's quite a possibility and definitely kind of one of those top two outcomes that I've seen all across mock draft, pretty much all off season for the for the Bears.
00:15:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, and Brock Bauers having just an awesome season last year. Just I think for the longest time we're like, oh, we don't want to take tight ends early, they're going to slow to adapt. I think that that mine could change a little bit with the success he had last season.
00:15:45
Speaker 3: And Tyler Warren, you.
00:15:46
Speaker 2: Know, kind of different player than than Bauers, but also put up just unbelievable numbers at Penn State. Can do a lot of different things besides, you know, just being that you know that that pass catching tight end. Dude can run it, dude can block, you can do it all. So I think he's I think he's a good player. I think he's probably gonna go in that top ten. There's even some talks he could go to the Jets a little bit before the Bears, so we'll see. But I like him as a prospect.
00:16:14
Speaker 1: I feel like the Saints are like the chameleon of the draft in terms of like, no one knows what position they're gonna go, and then Tyer Warren is like, no one really knows what team is going to go. It's like anytime there's an opening, it's like, okay, yeah, he might go there.
00:16:24
Speaker 2: Fit.
00:16:26
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, you know the Broncos. Let's talk about the Broncos. They of course signed Evan Ingram at tight end in the offseason, and yet we still think they're in the market for a skill player, at least the markets do. Running Back, wide receiver, and tight end are three of the top four favorites for the Broncos in terms of position of their first drafted player. What are you see in there?
00:16:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am.
00:16:51
Speaker 2: I'm looking at running back to the Denver Broncos plus one forty as the price I think that was on DraftKings and the reason I've kind of swung this way, and I know it's kind of the favorite, and we talked a couple of weeks ago. Maybe that's a bet that you can look past the favorite. But I mean that running back room is just dreadful. If you ask me, I'm not drafting a running back in the first round. I think get guys like Caleb Johnson, Devin Neil later in the draft who could be really serviceful running backs, kind of like we saw with Bucky Irving and some other later round picks who can be effective. But with that said, you know, Juliel McLoughlin, audrac Estima, I mean, these guys are no good in my eyes. So o Mario Hampton is kind of the chalky name. But then there's some talk like, well, maybe the Bears take him if Genti's gone, and I think that's actually like a really good reason to consider this, Like maybe I don't want to go there, But what we are seeing is that Traveon Williams or Trayvon Henderson excuse me from Ohio State is getting a lot of momentum as a first round pick, to the point where the market for three running backs drafted in the first round is plus one fifteen. So it's almost like even money that we're gonna get three running backs, And that makes me believe that, Okay, Denver's gonna walk away with one, whether it's Hampton dropping down to him or maybe they got to take Henderson if Hampton goes in front of him. So that gives me a little bit of comfort at that plus one forty number, which again I don't love eating chalk. Sometimes you gotta kind of gotta truck eat the favorite. But at plus one forty it is still some plus money on this. So that's where I just feel like it's a it's just a massive, massive need and there's just a lot of momentum for us to have an extra running back go in that first round.
00:18:41
Speaker 3: So I'm buying into that.
00:18:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, with wide receiver as the second most favored you know, spot position for the Denver Broncos, I think people are underestimating how much they like Marvin Mims. I mean Marvin Mims, like down the stretch was you know, putting up top tier fantasy numbers, and you know, he was playing more and more and they really like him. And I know they want kind of a movable chess piece here, and I think you look at wide receiver, they kind of have that, and Mims, you know, tight end you can do some things with anger. So I think running back would be that obvious position where uh, they would look for something like that. And I think big, bigger picture, it just kind of speaks to the fact that this seems to be more of a kind of a run game focused draft than in years past. I feel like we're seeing quarterbacks drop, We're seeing you know, wide receive, the wide receiver market not being you know, terribly terribly you know, hyped up this, and then we're you know, the tight ends. You know, we we're seeing, uh, you know, the guy who is kind of a more complete guy, he's gonna he's gonna go early. And then you know, we think that the pass catching guy is gonna go, is gonna go right after him, but we don't know exactly where. So I do think this draft is kind of shifting with a more than the running back position. Maybe it's maybe it's because of what happened with the Eagles and Saquon and you know, of course the Ravens and Henry or whatnot. I don't know. Maybe it's just kind of the way teams are great in these classes, but kind of to that, you know, related to that. That's why I still I'm still looking at uh, you know, when you look at these wide receivers, because I think the if you think the Broncos in the market for a wide receiver, you have to consider you know, Okay, Ted McMillan is still that number one favorite guy to be taken at at wide receiver. Golden is still number two, and I know, you know, McMillan has a kind of a better track record overall, but I still think there's value there on Golden at a plus one ninety five. It's kind of exactly what you're talking about. I think that a lot of these teams are going to prioritize other positions to the point where that that speed of Golden still may be valued a little higher than a guy like McMillan. And maybe this maybe it's just an indictment on McMillan, who, you know, maybe kind of like at the two court and the number two quarterbacks spot, where teams just aren't super high on him. And that's why we're we're not really seeing a bunch of buzz about these different wide receivers. So I still I still think there's a very good shot that Golden goes over him. And both of them have had eight Top thirty visits, so it's been about equal in that in that realm. So that's where I'm looking to kind of profit off that because I think the Broncos would be one of those teams that you'd have to consider taking taking a wide receiver, but I do think they're more likely to take a running back.
00:21:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I actually think that Golden is not the worst call there to Denver. And I say that because I actually think Tet McMillan's kind of like of the the Courtland Sutton kind of body type. Like I don't know if they would go that route. I think it would either be him, or you know, even a guy like Agbuka or Luther Burden or somebody like that who could.
00:21:34
Speaker 3: Mix it up a little bit. I I you know, there's a.
00:21:38
Speaker 2: Lot of momentum with Golden to be starting to be selected over Tet McMillan, And this is one of those things that like, I don't.
00:21:45
Speaker 3: Agree with it.
00:21:46
Speaker 2: I saw Matthew Golden this year, good player, but arguably not even the best receiver on his team.
00:21:52
Speaker 3: Isaiah Bond could have.
00:21:53
Speaker 2: Made that argument, Hey Bob, Yeah yeah, And and you know he was he was pretty good at Houston the year before. But at no point did I look at this guy and I'm like, man, first round NFL draft pick, like no brainer. And we see it every year where somebody runs a good forty and then next thing you know, their stock just absolutely skyrockets, whether it's a Henry Ruggs or the kid from Clemson a few years I think it was Clemson a few years ago, John Ross or that's what it was.
00:22:21
Speaker 3: Ross. Yeah, he wasn't Clemson.
00:22:22
Speaker 2: But we see it all the time where like suddenly a guy runs that number, their stock goes way up. And McMillan is not a flashy athlete. Okay, don't get me wrong, he is not. That is not his game whatsoever. So I would take him just because I think he's a little bit of a different type of receiver that you're seeing less and less of. To be honest with you, like he's like Keon Coleman last year, right, like another guy who kind of had high expectations and then really dropped as the draft went on just because he didn't didn't run great routes and ye. And I think the book is still out on whether how good of a pro he's going to be. But I don't hate that bet as a reality because we see it happen every year. I'm not of that mindset, but we know a lot of the guys in the NFL who who judge players are.
00:23:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I actually, you know that was one of like the first I remember when I was first really getting into bet in the draft, Henry Ruggs to be the number one receiver taken was actually one of the first big bets I made, and kind of for the same reason. It was like, I don't necessarily think he's the best receiver in the cross, but I just look at this draft in the way, you know, what's being emphasized, who's but who's kind of getting hyped up and what's not, And it just seems to me that more and more it's that speed aspect. Look at I mean, look at even Xavier Worthy and how the Chiefs used him last year. You know, it's like a lot of people didn't think he was even a first round caliber guy or like, and by the end of the year, I mean, he was being used pretty much as much as any receiver in the league. And I think it was just because of you know, teams cove at that speed and they feel like they can get maybe a guy was not not as uh skilled as McMillan, but with some of the traits a little further down and kind of used him as as such. You know, so and I know Sean Payton, you know what was Marcus Colston was even was he was a late round pick.
00:24:04
Speaker 2: If I ye, like yeah, very like six to seventh rounder if I remember correct.
00:24:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, So try and then Vayley. I mean they got Veyley who was kind of a late round guy, and you know he did some things for them last year too, So I could see them kind of you know, if they go that direction, going for speed. But I do think it's likely to be the running back position if they go to a skill player for the Broncos, which I think they should. Speaking of skill guys, you know Ashton Genty, I think he he's kind of the guy who if you're looking at skill positions in this draft, he kind of sets everything off because wherever he goes, that's going to kind of dictate what some of these other teams are going to to do and be able to do. Specifically the Bears, I think, uh, when you look at Genty and uh, you know where he could potentially go, which I think is anywhere, especially with these quarterbacks sliding, where where do you see? What? What specific team do you are you looking at for him?
00:24:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna eat a little bit of uh eat the price here a little bit. I think genty the Raiders is the play, and he's minus won forty five on ESPN bets, so it's not like you're you're paying minus three hundred or something on this.
00:25:14
Speaker 3: So you know, I'm.
00:25:15
Speaker 2: Okay laying that on a guy that he just fits everything that this team does in the draft taking, you know, the flashy guy, the speed guy, the offensive play like, that's what the Raiders do every single year. And the only thing that could prevent this from happening, and this is my my hedge on this bet would be Jacksonville the pick before them trading that to somebody who wants Aston Genty, maybe Denver, you know, for example, maybe they come up and say, we want to make a splash, we want to get we want to get genty. So what I'm doing here is I bet genty to the Raiders minus one forty five. But I went ahead and found pick number five to be ash and Genty at ten to one.
00:26:01
Speaker 3: I think that was unfanduel.
00:26:03
Speaker 2: So therefore, if the Jaguars trade out, great, you're hitting on a ten to one bet.
00:26:09
Speaker 3: You're not the end of the world. But if they.
00:26:13
Speaker 2: Don't trade out, Dan, I feel damn confident that it's going to be genty going to the Raiders. It just checks too many boxes for them. Raheem Mostert had three point three yards per carry last season. Like he's washed. I don't care that they went and got him in free agency. Zamir White's terrible. They don't have any production in that position, and with you know, the new coaching staff, and you know they've got rock Bowers there kind of in that tight end position. They new receivers too, don't get me wrong, but we've seen the big slide there and I think they're probably in a position to pick one up maybe in round two. I just think Genti the Raiders is too good of a price, especially at a ten to one hedge, that somebody kind of leapfrogs him, because I don't see that happening with any of those picks before. I think it's a it's a clear fall off when the Jags pick at five, and I don't even know if they even want to take the kid from Michigan. So that's a possibility, but it's a way to cover yourself if that happens.
00:27:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, speaking of that, I think I think when it was it was you and I talking about a month ago that, I mean, the Jazz could even draft him and maybe it's to trade him or something like that. So I think when we were talking, you know, the Jags odds to take a running back first were like something like plus four thousand. They're down to plus six hundred. So yeah, you know, you talk about kind of you know, just like in basketball, you want to be drafting throughout the offseason so you can get you know, different guys outside of their peak value points at kind of at their low value points. And I think that's the way to do it. And yeah, you could have had a crazy Hedgehound just them taking him as well, which could I mean still happen. According to the market now they're up to fourth running backs up the fourth most likely for them after D line, O line and linebacker. So it's very interesting there. But I do think the Raiders it makes the most sense. And that's why, you know, going back to the Bears to take potentially a guy like Tyer Warren makes sense too, because I think the I don't think genty would slip past the Bears No. At ten, but it doesn't seem like he's going to get there, and the Raiders sitting there at six is a big reason why.
00:28:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know, like the Bears again, they could go to the Jags and say, hey, we know gent's not going to get to us, what do you want for that? And that's actually pretty reasonable because a team like the Broncos is way further down in the draft. You got to give away that much more up where you know, maybe the Bears need to give up like a second and a third and maybe a second next year or something to move up to get gents. It's a little bit easier than giving up maybe future first round picks like you'd have to do if you're coming from way back.
00:28:47
Speaker 3: So that's a.
00:28:49
Speaker 2: Possibility Bears could do it. And again, if it does, that's fine. Just do it with Jacksonville, not New England.
00:28:54
Speaker 1: And you've seen with Ben Johnson when he was on the you know, when he was with the Lion the Lions were aggressive in the first round, moving up to get offensive weapons like Jamier Gibbs. A lot of people were surprised that he went that they took him that high, and then James and Williams as well. So yeah, I don't think it's out of the question that the Bears are aggressive here. Especially again with what they've done on the offensive line and the fact that they now have their franchise quarterback and all that. So they're in the position to kind of turn things upside down at the top of that draft. And I think it would be for a guy like it would be for Jens. I think that would be that would be the play. All right, let's before we get out of here to talk about one more team, the Buffalo Bills. We talked about Coleman earlier. You know, they tried out of Mark Cooper last year as well. So I've I've heard some people talk about, you know, wide receiver to them, what are you what are you thinking for them? For you know, first position of first drafted player.
00:29:51
Speaker 3: You nailed it.
00:29:52
Speaker 2: I think it's wide receiver, but it's wide receiver at a massive price. Fifteen to one I found on the Bills. I think that was DraftKings. Yeah, I mean that's a big number.
00:30:02
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:30:02
Speaker 2: So like again, when we're when we're acknowledging and saying that we like this bet, we're not saying we necessarily think it's going to happen, but we definitely think there's a better than fifteen to one chance that it's going to happen, and it's very simple. You look at two things here.
00:30:19
Speaker 3: Just their current.
00:30:21
Speaker 2: Roster of wide receivers leaves a lot to be desired, right, I mean, key on Coleman, you know, yes, they spent a first round draft pick on him last year. Wasn't terrible, certainly wasn't great. Long way to go, MARII Cooper, didn't do anything, didn't even resign him, Mac mac Collins. I mean, they're just all in all, like their whole wide receiving spot is nothing to get excited about. And what I like about this draft is we see a lot of these wide receivers falling ye, and I think there's a lot of guys who kind of fit that speedy, mid sized receiver that I think would fit them very well. A guy like Luther Burden, who a year ago would have been a top ten pick, had a terrible season last year, dropped dramatically, but kind of would fit that system, or even a Mecca a BUCA, Like his draft prop right now is twenty nine and a half, so he's a guy who's going to be around late in that first round. Jayden Higgins has done really well in the offseason out of Iowa State had a great year last year, but is impressed.
00:31:27
Speaker 3: At the combine.
00:31:28
Speaker 2: So I like the talent at that position when they're picking late in that first round, and I could just see them looking at and saying, hey, man, like this guy is just the best player on the board.
00:31:39
Speaker 3: We have some need there. Let's let's take another wide receiver.
00:31:43
Speaker 2: They still really haven't found anybody to replace Steph Diggs, and I don't think it's key on Coleman. So I think at fifteen to one, my goodness, like, yeah, let's take a shot at that.
00:31:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you love that because, like you said, they're sitting they're sitting there late in the first round. Wide receivers are fallen, and when you look at that kind of yeah, those mid sized guys, those guys are maybe some speed right now, you know, you got your here. He's been he's been great. He's okay, yeah, yeah, he's been great for them because they didn't have anybody else last year. But then you look at their other two starters right now, Pencil. Then they spent a little bit of money on Josh Palmer, but he's six, and then you got a and then Colin six four two fifteen so you can kind of use the guy with a little more explosion because to your point, you know, Coleman and Palmer, both of those guys kind of fit the mold a little bit more of you know, long term, like Okay, this is our number four guy, Like this is our guy. I know Palmer's been good, you know, stepping in at times for other guys, but realistically you'd like him now kind of yeah, yeah, he's gonna like him as Yeah.
00:32:43
Speaker 2: No, no, he's like he's a great number two or three, Like yeah, right now, he's arguably their number one. And maybe you could say it's shakier, but he's more of a slot guy, right, So, like they gotta find somebody, and I'm telling you it's not Josh Palmer, And it's like you got your channeling in his prime here, dude, Like, let's get him some weapons and see what see, see what what happens? Who knows, like how this goes, but the price is too good at fifteen to one. I think I think it was I think it was our friend Evan Silva who had him in his latest mock taking taking Luther Burden, And I think that would actually be a pretty good fit if if it happened.
00:33:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, because on one hand, you kind of look at it and you say, Okay, they drafted Kincaid and they go Coleman early, and you know, maybe they don't want to do go to another skill guy. But at the same time, you're kind of looking at it like, well, Josh Allenson is prime. They just signed him to a big contract extension, and they they're but they've been so good that they they still have that luxury of kind of swinging you know, swinging on on on an offensive weapon late in the first round here, you know, so I definitely think at that price, you got to look at it with this current wide receiver depth track, because yeah, I mean, Shakira is just their default number one, and like he's he he's a good player, but I don't think he should be in that position long term, especially with a guy like Josh Allen, Like that's just you should be aiming higher than that if you're the Buffalo Bills. So yeah, totally great, they could use another weapon. We saw that, you know, in the in the playoffs where they you know, it was tight, it was too tight with Kansas City, where I thought they had a chance to blow hm out. Maybe if they had played they had a better receiving court because they had to be very religned on the legs of Josh Allen and James Cook in that game.
00:34:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, fifteen to one.
00:34:27
Speaker 2: That's on DraftKings, by the way, if other people, if people want to tail that one, so I think we could see some movement if if more. Again, a lot of this is mock draft driven. Like more of these mocks come out and start putting guys, and it only takes one or two guys to start like doing you know, like plugging that in their mock draft to have it start moving markets.
00:34:49
Speaker 3: And then when that.
00:34:50
Speaker 2: Happens, and then maybe you can come back and find a nice plus you know, two fifty on a on a on a defensive end or something, right like like this is the fund of drafting, betting on the draft, and that's why we really, I mean, I wouldn't say you lost all your opportunity, but like I mean, even cam Ward he was he was literally like even money, like yeah, a month and a half ago and now it's just like a foregone conclusion. I wish I wasn't so enamored with Travis Hunter to it, Like I think that was like just a major bias of mine, Raybond, because I love Travis Hunter so much and I can't fathom him not being the best player in this draft. To like, if I took those blinders off, I probably should have just bet cam Ward because he was the safest thing. But I think, deep in my heart, I wanted it to be Travis Hunter.
00:35:39
Speaker 1: But it's gonna cost you never know, And I mean to your point, Will Loves was terrible. I I thought, do we get it? But yeah, I mean, you know, if if people was into this pod, you know, we were on, we were on. We were on cam Ward to go number one and Titans and all that. So I mean, there's there's definitely like the real important thing is kind you're not going to hit everything, no, but you know, kind of the the more kind of spaced out you can get these just like your best ball draft, the more you can kind of get you know, drafted or bet at different points, get guys at peak value. You can kind of fade guys when they're getting over hyped. I think that's the way to do it. So we might be looking, you know, look at this pod in a week or two and they you know, we might have some great values here, we might have some things that you no longer want, you probably no longer want to touch. So that's just how it goes with the with the draft.
00:36:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And you never know because like as soon as this draft's over, then they start like opening markets for next year's draft, which is kind of silly to bet unless it's a guy like Trevor Lawrence who you like, are a positive that he's going to go pro and go number one. That I had money tied up for like twelve months on that like number one pick at it. It was still like minus one seventy five or something, but I was like, there's zero chance that he's not going to go number one, just because of the hype that was around him. So you know, look at these you know, futures as portfolios, right, Like that's the way to do it, you know, I know, you know a lot of people like you know, betting quickly getting their return reinvesting. When I bet futures or even prop betting like like this, it's like building that portfolio, put it all together, and then see what your ROI is at the end.
00:37:15
Speaker 3: So but it's fun.
00:37:16
Speaker 2: It makes the weekend that much more enjoyable. You know, we get the draft Thursday Friday, what's Saturday now, so three extra days to bet on something football related. So I hope everybody kind of takes a look. And I'm sure we'll have plenty of articles and other content here on action in the in the coming weeks. But yeah, it's a fun, fun time.
00:37:36
Speaker 1: I mean, and West did only take you twelve months to profit of Trevor Lawrence de jaguary going on for five years now? Right? But great stuff, Dan, Tell everybody what you got going on, where they can find you and all that good stuff.
00:37:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we're just we're crushing it over at Rotogrinders for baseball.
00:37:54
Speaker 3: I think there's a ton of great services for.
00:37:57
Speaker 2: Dfs in the world of of dfs right now. There's so many, so many great, great sites out there. But I am fully convinced we have the best baseball product out there. We've got Derek Carty's projections exclusively at roto Grinders. We've got Dave Pott's Akcheese is good. He writes the most thorough MLB article you could imagine. So if you're into baseball or want to try dfs, give us a look. At rotogrinders and then just know like Bestball season, as soon as the draft happens, it's kind of best Ball gets started. So we've got a ton of great stuff lined up for you at Fantasy Labs. Our season long product, you know Chris and Shawn with that's going to be coming back again this year, but we're going to add Best Ball to it. So basically, might as well subscribe to summer get all the rankings that we've got happening for Best Ball for you to draft your teams all summer long, and then of course end of summer you're ready to draft your season long leagues. You already got all of Chris and Sewan's content in that subscription, So just one price all year long, and we're gonna we're really really pumped about it was a great first year with that product on Fantasy Labs, and we're investing into it to make it even better this year. We listen to some of the user feedback, so gonna be more customizable, gonna be more for the mobile user.
00:39:16
Speaker 3: So really keep your eye out.
00:39:18
Speaker 2: I think the next couple months we're gonna have some awesome stuff regarding the season long product that Chris and Shawn Do on Fantasy Labs, so stay tuned for that.
00:39:28
Speaker 1: Yes sir, and make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Flex podcast wherever you get your pods. Don't forget the Action Network podcast for Dan Bock. I am Chris Raybon. Until next time, Let's get this money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
