1
00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:00,790
Gabriel: Hey, everyone.
2
00:00:00,900 --> 00:00:03,540
You may have noticed that
this is a flashback episode.
3
00:00:03,590 --> 00:00:07,160
Over the years, the number of people
that listen to Chaser Chat has grown
4
00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,179
significantly, and I wanted to highlight
some of the older podcasts so that all
5
00:00:11,179 --> 00:00:12,870
of you new folks have a chance to listen.
6
00:00:12,879 --> 00:00:17,409
There may be some dated references,
advertisements, etc., so just ignore
7
00:00:17,409 --> 00:00:19,089
those, and I hope you enjoy the episode.
8
00:00:22,008 --> 00:00:24,647
Gabriel: Howdy folks, and
welcome back to another episode
9
00:00:24,677 --> 00:00:26,508
of the Chaser Chat Podcast.
10
00:00:26,677 --> 00:00:30,528
I'm your host, Gabriel Harber, and I
want to thank all of you for tuning
11
00:00:30,528 --> 00:00:35,218
in, whether it is on YouTube, Spotify,
Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, you
12
00:00:35,218 --> 00:00:36,897
can find us in all of those places.
13
00:00:36,968 --> 00:00:40,138
Today's guest interview
is really exciting.
14
00:00:40,138 --> 00:00:44,728
It's somebody who you have probably
heard about before if you are at all
15
00:00:44,738 --> 00:00:48,578
in the weather community on YouTube,
on Twitter, reading research articles,
16
00:00:48,738 --> 00:00:52,898
or if you listened to my previous
podcast with Pecos Hank Shima, because
17
00:00:52,977 --> 00:00:56,348
he's got a video or two with this
person on his channel, and we talked
18
00:00:56,348 --> 00:00:57,738
about it a little bit on that episode.
19
00:00:57,798 --> 00:01:01,218
So without further ado, I
am excited to introduce Dr.
20
00:01:01,218 --> 00:01:01,978
Leigh Orf.
21
00:01:02,038 --> 00:01:02,798
How's it going today, Dr.
22
00:01:02,798 --> 00:01:02,888
Orf?
23
00:01:02,888 --> 00:01:03,008
Dr.
24
00:01:03,008 --> 00:01:04,068
Orf: I'm doing well.
25
00:01:04,068 --> 00:01:05,198
It's a little chilly outside.
26
00:01:05,198 --> 00:01:08,508
No storm chasing out here, although
I think I saw a snownado earlier
27
00:01:09,048 --> 00:01:10,958
. Gabriel: It always blows my mind.
28
00:01:11,858 --> 00:01:15,668
It always blows my mind when I see
the people on Twitter who are in full
29
00:01:15,668 --> 00:01:19,138
storm chase mode during the spring
and summer months going into full
30
00:01:19,138 --> 00:01:21,988
winter chase mode and they're driving
halfway across the country to get
31
00:01:21,988 --> 00:01:23,898
snowed on and slide around in ice.
32
00:01:23,898 --> 00:01:24,688
I think it's crazy.
33
00:01:24,898 --> 00:01:25,408
Dr.
34
00:01:25,408 --> 00:01:28,093
Orf: Yeah, you can't miss when
you're chasing a blizzard.
35
00:01:28,143 --> 00:01:29,693
You're gonna catch it.
36
00:01:29,693 --> 00:01:30,793
It's gonna catch you, though.
37
00:01:30,853 --> 00:01:32,183
It's the same goes with hurricanes.
38
00:01:32,273 --> 00:01:33,703
Don't chase hurricanes, people.
39
00:01:34,503 --> 00:01:37,573
Gabriel: I see a lot of those pictures
on Twitter where people have the rulers
40
00:01:37,573 --> 00:01:40,842
just stuck into the snow and then,
an hour or two later, they're in the
41
00:01:40,842 --> 00:01:43,733
same location because eventually, once
it starts snowing, you can't really
42
00:01:43,733 --> 00:01:45,143
go anywhere or do anything anymore.
43
00:01:45,143 --> 00:01:45,263
Dr.
44
00:01:45,263 --> 00:01:48,043
Orf: Yeah if you live in the South
and you're a chaser, and you're
45
00:01:48,043 --> 00:01:50,853
bored during the off season,
you gotta do something, right?
46
00:01:50,853 --> 00:01:53,753
Gabriel: Yeah, I suppose that'd be the
equivalent to the athletes who during
47
00:01:53,753 --> 00:01:56,943
the off season travel all over the world
to do those exotic training regiments.
48
00:01:56,943 --> 00:01:57,073
Dr.
49
00:01:57,073 --> 00:01:58,043
Orf: Yes, that's right.
50
00:01:58,043 --> 00:01:59,612
Gabriel: Maybe that's
the analog there, so.
51
00:01:59,682 --> 00:01:59,852
Dr.
52
00:01:59,852 --> 00:02:00,252
Orf: There you go.
53
00:02:00,252 --> 00:02:02,613
Gabriel: All right, but we did
not set up this conversation to
54
00:02:02,613 --> 00:02:04,663
talk about winter storm chasing.
55
00:02:04,793 --> 00:02:08,503
We set it up because you have some
fascinating research that's going on
56
00:02:08,503 --> 00:02:14,022
right now, and I know that the audio only
medium is probably not the best way to
57
00:02:14,022 --> 00:02:17,652
convey exactly what it is you're doing
but I'm hoping that this conversation
58
00:02:17,652 --> 00:02:21,683
can really pique the curiosity of the
people who are listening, give them
59
00:02:21,683 --> 00:02:25,983
some new ideas and new ways of thinking
about storm development and storm
60
00:02:25,983 --> 00:02:29,683
maintenance, and then they'll be inspired
to go check out your YouTube channel.
61
00:02:29,693 --> 00:02:31,922
So if you want to just start
actually by letting people know
62
00:02:31,922 --> 00:02:34,802
where they can find all the different
presentations that you've done,
63
00:02:34,802 --> 00:02:36,263
I think that'd be a good place.
64
00:02:36,303 --> 00:02:36,843
Dr.
65
00:02:36,843 --> 00:02:37,213
Orf: Sure.
66
00:02:37,403 --> 00:02:40,143
I want to say first though,
I love the audio only mode.
67
00:02:40,193 --> 00:02:43,263
I'm a HAM radio operator and I'm
not active right now, but I have
68
00:02:43,263 --> 00:02:44,953
my license and I used to do radio.
69
00:02:44,953 --> 00:02:47,163
So I like theater of
the mind kind of stuff.
70
00:02:47,173 --> 00:02:48,633
So anyhow, yeah.
71
00:02:48,683 --> 00:02:52,263
I have one, a one stop shop that
just gets you to all my stuff
72
00:02:52,333 --> 00:02:54,033
at the website or stop media.
73
00:02:54,218 --> 00:02:54,648
That's it.
74
00:02:54,768 --> 00:02:58,898
ORF.Media, and you'll get a link
to there to my YouTube channel my
75
00:02:58,898 --> 00:03:00,938
research profile and things like that.
76
00:03:01,048 --> 00:03:07,018
And yeah, so what I've done is starting
in 2014 when I, my research first broke, I
77
00:03:07,018 --> 00:03:12,123
had this idea that I had prepared my talk
as a complete video where you just press
78
00:03:12,123 --> 00:03:15,173
play and talk, and I had just done all the
timings is the first time I had done this.
79
00:03:15,303 --> 00:03:17,853
And afterwards I'm like, I should
just upload this to YouTube.
80
00:03:18,063 --> 00:03:18,848
People would like this.
81
00:03:18,848 --> 00:03:19,753
So I did that.
82
00:03:19,843 --> 00:03:22,743
And without the audio, cause I hadn't
gotten the, I hadn't really planned this.
83
00:03:22,743 --> 00:03:25,253
This was just all like spur of
the moment thing, and I gave
84
00:03:25,253 --> 00:03:26,693
the talk, it was well received.
85
00:03:26,703 --> 00:03:27,383
I uploaded it.
86
00:03:27,393 --> 00:03:30,462
Suddenly there's 20, 000 views, and
I'm like, wait a minute, that's not
87
00:03:30,462 --> 00:03:32,052
supposed to happen for a scientific talk.
88
00:03:32,172 --> 00:03:35,897
Then I got the audio from the guy who
recorded it, and I had my Final Cut
89
00:03:35,897 --> 00:03:39,927
Pro, I stitched it in, I re uploaded
it, and then, that's the one you'll
90
00:03:39,927 --> 00:03:41,517
see now, where it's all synced up.
91
00:03:41,737 --> 00:03:45,927
But, so all I've really done with
the YouTube, and it's my only form of
92
00:03:45,927 --> 00:03:49,847
social media that I currently employ
is I just post my talks with no
93
00:03:49,847 --> 00:03:52,407
fancy anything, and I'm probably
going to change this and start doing
94
00:03:52,407 --> 00:03:53,817
some more production work on this.
95
00:03:53,957 --> 00:03:56,007
Nothing like Hank, he's
just so good at this.
96
00:03:56,077 --> 00:03:58,077
I just want to kick it up a notch.
97
00:03:58,077 --> 00:04:01,007
I'm also working on doing
some video work for a museum.
98
00:04:01,007 --> 00:04:04,477
So there's a lot of interest in the
numerical simulations of the tornadoes.
99
00:04:04,537 --> 00:04:08,567
And I guess, and stop me if I start
rambling, for me, I've been working
100
00:04:08,567 --> 00:04:10,547
on work like this for a long time.
101
00:04:10,722 --> 00:04:14,302
What got me into weather, and I
know it's a common question to
102
00:04:14,302 --> 00:04:15,682
ask, what got you into the weather?
103
00:04:15,682 --> 00:04:18,882
And I won't go back to my childhood
just yet because it really, like
104
00:04:18,882 --> 00:04:22,182
most meteorologists, it does, but
the computer angle is what really
105
00:04:22,182 --> 00:04:23,722
brought me into what I'm doing.
106
00:04:23,802 --> 00:04:27,812
The kind of work I do, which involves
simulating thunderstorms, requires a lot
107
00:04:27,812 --> 00:04:31,012
of technical knowledge of how computers
work because I'm using the world's most
108
00:04:31,022 --> 00:04:35,932
powerful supercomputers because you
need them to resolve flow features in
109
00:04:35,932 --> 00:04:39,992
thunderstorms that we're finding out are
probably quite important when it comes
110
00:04:39,992 --> 00:04:43,732
to understanding the nature of tornadoes,
how they form, how they're maintained
111
00:04:43,732 --> 00:04:45,472
and ultimately how they dissipate.
112
00:04:45,612 --> 00:04:50,612
So I basically what I do as my
research, my area is numerical
113
00:04:50,622 --> 00:04:54,492
simulation of deep moist convection,
primarily supercell thunderstorms,
114
00:04:54,492 --> 00:04:57,802
but I've also done work with air mass
thunderstorms and looking at downbursts.
115
00:04:57,982 --> 00:05:01,722
My PhD work was on downbursts, which
are these intense down drafts that
116
00:05:01,722 --> 00:05:06,992
form out of mostly every day sort of
regular run of the mill thunderstorms,
117
00:05:06,992 --> 00:05:10,912
ordinary thunderstorms where you have
rain or maybe even some snow falling
118
00:05:10,912 --> 00:05:15,492
into a very deep, neutral dry layer
where the thermodynamic processes can
119
00:05:15,492 --> 00:05:17,702
kick off a really strong downdraft.
120
00:05:17,712 --> 00:05:22,522
So downbursts, of course, were responsible
for a lot of air carrier crashes.
121
00:05:22,582 --> 00:05:26,302
And the good news on downbursts is that
pilots are trained to understand them.
122
00:05:26,572 --> 00:05:28,622
Airports have terminal
Doppler weather radars.
123
00:05:28,652 --> 00:05:30,872
Now there's just nobody,
you don't really see...
124
00:05:30,892 --> 00:05:33,602
planes used to fall out of the sky
a lot more than they do in the-
125
00:05:33,602 --> 00:05:34,002
Gabriel: Yeah.
126
00:05:34,002 --> 00:05:35,832
I was reading about that a
couple of weeks ago, actually.
127
00:05:35,832 --> 00:05:36,352
It's crazy.
128
00:05:36,352 --> 00:05:36,482
Dr.
129
00:05:36,482 --> 00:05:37,262
Orf: It really is.
130
00:05:37,262 --> 00:05:39,457
This was just, obviously
nobody probably liked it, but
131
00:05:39,457 --> 00:05:40,797
this was just the way it was.
132
00:05:40,907 --> 00:05:44,037
There, and I don't want to go down that
road either because the airliner, the
133
00:05:44,037 --> 00:05:47,077
airlines have done a lot for safety
since then, and some of it had to
134
00:05:47,077 --> 00:05:49,977
do with maintenance not really being
done right, and other parts were
135
00:05:49,977 --> 00:05:51,337
just, pilots weren't trained enough.
136
00:05:51,467 --> 00:05:54,777
To deal with these thunderstorms
and the science wasn't there yet.
137
00:05:54,787 --> 00:05:57,787
Ted Fujita did all the
credible work on downbursts.
138
00:05:57,867 --> 00:05:58,637
But anyway, yeah.
139
00:05:58,747 --> 00:05:59,757
Ask me some questions.
140
00:05:59,757 --> 00:06:00,687
I could ramble all day.
141
00:06:00,687 --> 00:06:04,127
Remember, I'm also a former college
professor and we can just ramble on.
142
00:06:04,307 --> 00:06:05,637
We don't even care if anyone's listening.
143
00:06:05,647 --> 00:06:08,517
Gabriel: That's the great thing about
the podcast medium is it was invented
144
00:06:08,527 --> 00:06:09,997
for people to ramble on and on.
145
00:06:09,997 --> 00:06:11,047
So it's perfect.
146
00:06:11,047 --> 00:06:11,177
Dr.
147
00:06:11,177 --> 00:06:11,677
Orf: There you go.
148
00:06:11,777 --> 00:06:12,237
There you go.
149
00:06:12,277 --> 00:06:12,607
Gabriel: Yeah.
150
00:06:12,607 --> 00:06:12,717
Yeah.
151
00:06:12,737 --> 00:06:16,427
So there's a lot of places that that I
could start because just there's so many
152
00:06:16,427 --> 00:06:19,307
little details of the presentations
of yours that I've watched that I want
153
00:06:19,307 --> 00:06:22,237
to get into, but I think we should
probably start with what you mentioned
154
00:06:22,237 --> 00:06:24,997
a few moments ago, which is just give
us a little bit of the backstory.
155
00:06:25,047 --> 00:06:26,947
Like you said, everyone
has a childhood story.
156
00:06:27,097 --> 00:06:29,667
They were influenced by the weather
some way when they were younger, and
157
00:06:29,667 --> 00:06:32,867
it grew up as this passion in them and
just, yeah, give us your your quick bio.
158
00:06:32,867 --> 00:06:32,997
Dr.
159
00:06:32,997 --> 00:06:37,292
Orf: Yeah, and this is something that's,
I've just done some recent research into.
160
00:06:37,932 --> 00:06:40,882
So when I was five years old,
I lived out in Massachusetts.
161
00:06:40,972 --> 00:06:43,272
Suburb of Springfield, it would
have been Ludlow, Massachusetts.
162
00:06:43,372 --> 00:06:48,352
And on July 6th, 1974, and I found
this in the newspaper just the other
163
00:06:48,352 --> 00:06:51,302
day, I went to the old newspaper
archives online to do this because I
164
00:06:51,452 --> 00:06:52,762
wanted to know what day this happened.
165
00:06:52,842 --> 00:06:56,142
It was a day, so I was like five
years old, and I remember that day
166
00:06:56,372 --> 00:06:57,962
in that it was unsettled all day.
167
00:06:57,962 --> 00:07:01,232
There was like thunderstorms rolling in
the morning, then it broke, and then there
168
00:07:01,232 --> 00:07:02,752
was some thunderstorms in the afternoon.
169
00:07:02,752 --> 00:07:04,662
And then it was like, "eh"
then the weather service is
170
00:07:04,662 --> 00:07:06,322
issuing things, and I'm five.
171
00:07:06,322 --> 00:07:07,312
I don't really understand this stuff.
172
00:07:07,372 --> 00:07:10,972
But I remember the sense of tension
and just the weather is just angry.
173
00:07:11,192 --> 00:07:11,462
Gabriel: Yeah.
174
00:07:11,492 --> 00:07:11,622
Dr.
175
00:07:11,622 --> 00:07:14,932
Orf: So anyway my sister who was four,
she's like a little over a year younger
176
00:07:14,932 --> 00:07:16,602
than I, and we had just taken our baths.
177
00:07:16,602 --> 00:07:19,152
We're going to bed, the storms raging.
178
00:07:19,152 --> 00:07:20,282
So it was a thunderstorm outside.
179
00:07:20,822 --> 00:07:22,052
This is 1974.
180
00:07:22,062 --> 00:07:22,402
Okay.
181
00:07:22,402 --> 00:07:24,802
So knowledge of storms and
stuff wasn't in my head yet.
182
00:07:24,802 --> 00:07:26,452
So my father and myself were in my room.
183
00:07:26,452 --> 00:07:28,062
We lived in old Cape Cod in the upstairs.
184
00:07:28,062 --> 00:07:30,522
I'm looking out the window
probably towards, I don't even
185
00:07:30,522 --> 00:07:32,972
remember how the house is oriented
towards the east let's say.
186
00:07:33,082 --> 00:07:36,002
My sister and my mother are in her
room across the house on the same
187
00:07:36,002 --> 00:07:37,862
floor watching the storm as well.
188
00:07:37,862 --> 00:07:40,752
And then all I remember is my
mother screaming at the top
189
00:07:40,752 --> 00:07:42,642
of her voice my father's name.
190
00:07:42,772 --> 00:07:43,742
I turned around.
191
00:07:43,752 --> 00:07:46,962
I don't remember a boom or
anything, but I saw fire.
192
00:07:47,462 --> 00:07:48,812
I saw glowing wires.
193
00:07:48,812 --> 00:07:49,982
I saw insulation.
194
00:07:49,982 --> 00:07:50,962
I saw paneling.
195
00:07:50,962 --> 00:07:55,432
Remember, this is the 70s that was on
fire and I just bolted down the stairs.
196
00:07:55,532 --> 00:07:56,892
So Dr Orf our house got hit by lightning.
197
00:07:56,942 --> 00:08:00,102
My mother couldn't hear for a couple
of days because of the concussion
198
00:08:00,102 --> 00:08:01,462
wave just knocked out her hearing.
199
00:08:01,612 --> 00:08:03,902
My sister's canopy was on
fire for crying out loud.
200
00:08:03,952 --> 00:08:05,002
But there was a small fire.
201
00:08:05,002 --> 00:08:06,712
It was put out quickly by my father.
202
00:08:06,822 --> 00:08:09,862
That event was a lot of houses
got hit by lightning that night.
203
00:08:09,882 --> 00:08:11,662
That's what the newspaper told me.
204
00:08:11,662 --> 00:08:15,902
This is a first page of the Springfield
union, so that was event number one.
205
00:08:16,097 --> 00:08:16,387
Okay.
206
00:08:16,397 --> 00:08:19,237
Event number one, Massachusetts
house hit by lightning.
207
00:08:19,347 --> 00:08:19,997
Oh God.
208
00:08:20,067 --> 00:08:21,187
Mother nature is trying to kill me.
209
00:08:21,187 --> 00:08:24,177
Now at this point in my life, I'm
just, I'm scientifically minded.
210
00:08:24,177 --> 00:08:25,507
I know I liked science-y stuff.
211
00:08:25,507 --> 00:08:28,357
I was just always playing with
microscopes and listening to the
212
00:08:28,357 --> 00:08:31,077
radio and climbing up trees and
putting up antennas, stuff like that.
213
00:08:31,077 --> 00:08:32,497
I mean, some of that
was a little bit later.
214
00:08:32,597 --> 00:08:34,107
So let's fast forward a few years.
215
00:08:34,247 --> 00:08:37,827
This is in Feeding Hills, Massachusetts,
also a suburb of Springfield, just
216
00:08:37,827 --> 00:08:39,087
north of the Connecticut border.
217
00:08:39,217 --> 00:08:46,417
And October 3rd, 1974 was a day when an F4
tornado hit Bradley International Airport.
218
00:08:46,467 --> 00:08:50,457
Ted Fujita called this the Windsor
Locks tornado, and that sucker went
219
00:08:50,457 --> 00:08:55,097
right up north the Connecticut Valley,
River Valley, and it did F4 damage,
220
00:08:55,127 --> 00:08:57,017
killed a few people, damaged a lot.
221
00:08:57,027 --> 00:08:58,327
It was a short lived storm.
222
00:08:58,537 --> 00:09:00,837
And it barely grazed our house.
223
00:09:00,837 --> 00:09:03,267
I think the, I remember running upstairs.
224
00:09:03,297 --> 00:09:06,557
I'd just come home from school, my
sister's a year younger, different school.
225
00:09:06,707 --> 00:09:09,287
Turns out that a tree had fallen
on the roof or the roof had gotten
226
00:09:09,287 --> 00:09:11,787
peeled off and she couldn't come home
cause it was flooding and there was
227
00:09:11,787 --> 00:09:13,067
all sorts of stuff going on there.
228
00:09:13,207 --> 00:09:13,977
She was fine.
229
00:09:14,077 --> 00:09:16,397
There was a little bit of damage
in our backyard, but I remember
230
00:09:16,397 --> 00:09:18,707
going to school the next day and
everyone was talking about this,
231
00:09:18,707 --> 00:09:20,237
but that was another scary thing.
232
00:09:20,317 --> 00:09:24,257
So here I am, I haven't even reached
puberty basically and Dr Orf Mother
233
00:09:24,257 --> 00:09:25,407
Nature's tried to kill me twice.
234
00:09:25,622 --> 00:09:30,262
Now I say this sort of in jest,
but I am one of those rare
235
00:09:30,442 --> 00:09:33,992
severe weather scientists who
really has no urge to chase.
236
00:09:34,122 --> 00:09:38,852
And I know this is a chaser blog, and
I think what it really is these events
237
00:09:38,852 --> 00:09:42,827
weren't the kind of things that inspired
me to want to go out and see this stuff.
238
00:09:42,827 --> 00:09:43,687
It scared me.
239
00:09:43,787 --> 00:09:45,267
To this day, I don't
really like lightning.
240
00:09:45,487 --> 00:09:47,987
I don't really, I look, man,
you can't outrun that stuff.
241
00:09:48,097 --> 00:09:49,187
And lightning is too fast.
242
00:09:49,457 --> 00:09:51,727
So when it's lightning, I'm
not as bad as our old dog was.
243
00:09:51,727 --> 00:09:55,377
It would crawl into the bathtub
and whimper, but I don't really
244
00:09:55,377 --> 00:09:57,237
like being around severe weather.
245
00:09:57,512 --> 00:10:00,732
And the good thing is, it turns out
I'm pretty good at this computer stuff.
246
00:10:00,802 --> 00:10:02,712
I'd be wasting my efforts
if I was in the field.
247
00:10:02,712 --> 00:10:06,212
I don't think, I've done, I'm a HAM radio
guy, built antennas, I built radios.
248
00:10:06,212 --> 00:10:07,772
I like doing hands on stuff.
249
00:10:07,772 --> 00:10:08,552
I love weather.
250
00:10:08,552 --> 00:10:11,922
I love all that stuff, but I don't
want to spend my March, April, May,
251
00:10:11,922 --> 00:10:13,452
whatever, driving around the Great Plains.
252
00:10:13,452 --> 00:10:14,852
It's just not something that interests me.
253
00:10:14,902 --> 00:10:17,052
And there's other people who
are better at it than I am.
254
00:10:17,222 --> 00:10:21,262
And there's plenty of people who take
wonderful video that that I find useful.
255
00:10:21,272 --> 00:10:23,567
Folks like Hank and tons of storm chasers.
256
00:10:23,877 --> 00:10:26,717
I'm on YouTube all the time
looking at tornado videos.
257
00:10:26,887 --> 00:10:31,717
Not all the time, but oftentimes I'm
looking there for just inspiration
258
00:10:31,717 --> 00:10:34,807
or just trying to see things that
might show up in my simulations that
259
00:10:34,807 --> 00:10:37,877
are also in the field because that's
really important to what I do is being
260
00:10:37,877 --> 00:10:39,847
able to match a reality to the models.
261
00:10:39,847 --> 00:10:39,967
Dr.
262
00:10:39,967 --> 00:10:41,597
Orf: But anyway, so that's my story.
263
00:10:41,637 --> 00:10:45,347
I think I decided probably sometime
in high school that I wanted to be a
264
00:10:45,387 --> 00:10:47,037
college professor, which is really weird.
265
00:10:47,037 --> 00:10:49,567
I didn't think I even knew what a
college professor did, but I wanted to
266
00:10:49,567 --> 00:10:51,817
do, I wanted to always be doing science.
267
00:10:51,837 --> 00:10:54,717
I just, I dabbled in archeology.
268
00:10:54,717 --> 00:10:55,847
I won an archeological dig.
269
00:10:55,847 --> 00:10:57,807
I won a little scholarship,
went down to Campsville,
270
00:10:57,807 --> 00:10:59,327
Illinois and dug up some stuff.
271
00:10:59,327 --> 00:11:00,527
That was freaking cool.
272
00:11:00,527 --> 00:11:02,977
I still love paleoanthropology
and archeology.
273
00:11:02,977 --> 00:11:04,027
I read all about that stuff.
274
00:11:04,187 --> 00:11:05,127
I had a telescope.
275
00:11:05,127 --> 00:11:07,707
I used to look at the stars and the
planets and watch them zip across
276
00:11:07,707 --> 00:11:11,167
the screen cause it was a cheap one
and it didn't turn with the earth.
277
00:11:11,237 --> 00:11:14,017
So I was just science minded
and I settled on meteorology.
278
00:11:14,047 --> 00:11:16,857
I don't know exactly when, but
when I got into college here at
279
00:11:16,857 --> 00:11:21,007
UW Madison, where I currently
work, my third semester, I think?
280
00:11:21,027 --> 00:11:25,657
I took a programming class and boy, that's
where I was like, computers are fun.
281
00:11:25,767 --> 00:11:26,917
Programming is cool.
282
00:11:27,037 --> 00:11:30,207
And then when I discovered that
meteorology has a need for people
283
00:11:30,207 --> 00:11:31,917
who can program, then I was set.
284
00:11:31,917 --> 00:11:32,857
I knew what I wanted to do.
285
00:11:32,857 --> 00:11:35,197
I wanted to use computers to
understand the weather and that's
286
00:11:35,257 --> 00:11:36,257
what I'm still trying to do.
287
00:11:36,402 --> 00:11:40,952
Gabriel: That is certainly a bit of
a strange story in terms of the the
288
00:11:40,952 --> 00:11:42,502
desire to stay out of the field.
289
00:11:42,572 --> 00:11:45,502
You're right; most of the people I talk
to are giddy up, let's get out there
290
00:11:45,502 --> 00:11:47,522
and get in the path of a huge supercell.
291
00:11:47,572 --> 00:11:49,702
But, you chose the opposite direction.
292
00:11:49,762 --> 00:11:49,932
Dr.
293
00:11:49,932 --> 00:11:50,682
Orf: I totally get it.
294
00:11:50,712 --> 00:11:52,492
I just don't need to do it to believe it.
295
00:11:52,552 --> 00:11:54,832
It's almost like a faith thing,
if someone else is there with a
296
00:11:54,832 --> 00:11:58,752
4K camera going at 120 frames per
second, that, I just need to see that.
297
00:11:58,752 --> 00:12:02,122
I don't need to, I don't need to
place myself there in my own mind.
298
00:12:02,577 --> 00:12:05,637
Would I be a better meteorologist
if I did go to the field?
299
00:12:05,647 --> 00:12:06,697
That's actually a good question.
300
00:12:06,747 --> 00:12:09,627
Is there something I'm missing in my own
analysis cause I haven't actually seen
301
00:12:09,627 --> 00:12:14,347
storms, seen the full glory- I have, they
come to me sometimes, so it's not probably
302
00:12:14,367 --> 00:12:15,937
technically true to say I've never chased.
303
00:12:15,937 --> 00:12:19,217
I have gotten in my car and looked around
my house when there's something that comes
304
00:12:19,217 --> 00:12:22,067
by, but I don't take a couple of weeks
off in the spring, that sort of thing.
305
00:12:22,207 --> 00:12:24,671
So yeah that, I've thought about
this a lot, but I think it really
306
00:12:24,671 --> 00:12:26,261
just boils down to the fact that I...
307
00:12:26,261 --> 00:12:27,221
it really did...
308
00:12:27,281 --> 00:12:30,581
those are those memories that sear into
your brain, and it just influenced me in
309
00:12:30,581 --> 00:12:33,671
a way that sort of said, I don't need to
do that, and I'm pretty good at the other
310
00:12:33,671 --> 00:12:36,671
thing, and it seems like there's a plenty
of people who are willing to go out and
311
00:12:36,671 --> 00:12:38,501
chase, so I'll just work on this stuff.
312
00:12:38,621 --> 00:12:40,771
Gabriel: I think we're pretty
fortunate that you chose to do that
313
00:12:40,771 --> 00:12:45,151
because it, you know how there's that
entire idea of chaser convergence
314
00:12:45,151 --> 00:12:48,611
during really easily forecastable
days and really populated areas?
315
00:12:49,111 --> 00:12:49,381
Yeah.
316
00:12:49,481 --> 00:12:53,181
It's almost when it comes to people
who are interested in severe weather,
317
00:12:53,191 --> 00:12:56,731
it does seem like there's a bit of a
hobby convergence where less people are
318
00:12:56,731 --> 00:12:59,911
interested in the side of things that
you are, more people are interested in
319
00:12:59,911 --> 00:13:02,801
going out and chasing and I could see
how that might have the potential to
320
00:13:02,801 --> 00:13:06,021
bottleneck some of the research because
if you don't have enough people in the
321
00:13:06,021 --> 00:13:10,761
labs doing the research on supercomputers
and really pushing the science forward,
322
00:13:10,811 --> 00:13:14,811
then you're not really going to have a
lot to do with the data that's generated
323
00:13:14,811 --> 00:13:17,971
and the photos and videos are generated
by the storm chasers out in the field.
324
00:13:17,971 --> 00:13:18,091
Dr.
325
00:13:18,091 --> 00:13:20,601
Orf: Yeah it's interesting perspective.
326
00:13:20,681 --> 00:13:22,621
I just, it's just something that I like.
327
00:13:22,681 --> 00:13:24,831
I can focus on it and I'm
relatively good at it.
328
00:13:24,851 --> 00:13:26,801
If you're listening to this
podcast and you're wondering what
329
00:13:26,801 --> 00:13:29,361
to do with your life, it helps if
you do something you're good at.
330
00:13:29,621 --> 00:13:30,551
Gabriel: Its true, can confirm.
331
00:13:31,531 --> 00:13:31,671
Dr.
332
00:13:31,671 --> 00:13:34,101
Orf: But just liking it
alone sometimes isn't enough.
333
00:13:34,101 --> 00:13:35,281
You have to be good at it.
334
00:13:35,471 --> 00:13:37,221
I'm just kidding here but
it just comes together.
335
00:13:37,221 --> 00:13:39,701
I can sit here where I'm sitting
now in my basement during this
336
00:13:39,701 --> 00:13:42,211
pandemic, got two 4k monitors going.
337
00:13:42,211 --> 00:13:44,076
I've I got two operating systems.
338
00:13:44,076 --> 00:13:46,806
I got the supercomputer VNC going on here.
339
00:13:46,806 --> 00:13:49,736
I'm watching a simulation actually as we
talk, making sure everything's going well.
340
00:13:49,906 --> 00:13:50,486
See, I can sit here.
341
00:13:50,486 --> 00:13:54,126
It's like my command control center
or whatever, and I'm okay with that.
342
00:13:54,156 --> 00:13:55,036
I'm okay with that.
343
00:13:55,106 --> 00:13:58,586
What I've managed to do, the thing
that sort of, I guess you'd say that
344
00:13:58,696 --> 00:14:02,606
my research did that really hadn't been
done to that extent, is just an amping
345
00:14:02,626 --> 00:14:06,196
up of previous work in the sense that I'm
simulating supercells, other people have
346
00:14:06,196 --> 00:14:09,486
done that, I'm visualizing the data, other
people have done that, but I'm doing it
347
00:14:09,486 --> 00:14:11,626
at a resolution, both in time and space.
348
00:14:11,636 --> 00:14:14,756
So the temporal resolution
thing, I save, I can save data
349
00:14:14,926 --> 00:14:17,366
as fast as someone can film it.
350
00:14:17,366 --> 00:14:20,886
30 frames per second, say, I can
almost get to 30 frames per second of
351
00:14:20,886 --> 00:14:22,826
saving my data, which is ridiculous.
352
00:14:22,856 --> 00:14:23,578
Gabriel: That's insane.
353
00:14:23,578 --> 00:14:23,700
Dr.
354
00:14:23,700 --> 00:14:26,256
Orf: Saving data takes a lot of time
on a supercomputer and I've found
355
00:14:26,256 --> 00:14:27,706
ways to make it take less time.
356
00:14:27,836 --> 00:14:31,646
So my movies are vibrant and
dynamic because you're not jumping
357
00:14:31,646 --> 00:14:34,876
forward in course time intervals
of five seconds or 10 seconds.
358
00:14:35,046 --> 00:14:38,366
You're seeing all of the very rapid
interaction that goes on in the
359
00:14:38,366 --> 00:14:42,216
supercells, including the mergers of
tiny vortices that come together to
360
00:14:42,226 --> 00:14:45,776
consolidate vorticity and things that
lead to the formation of the tornado.
361
00:14:45,776 --> 00:14:48,396
And even while the tornado is going,
there's all sorts of interesting things
362
00:14:48,396 --> 00:14:52,461
going on, and what I've done is I've
basically taken a model that somebody
363
00:14:52,461 --> 00:14:57,351
else wrote, George Brian at NCAR it's an
open source model that is pretty much the
364
00:14:57,351 --> 00:15:01,531
main model used for idealized supercell
research and thunderstorm research - a
365
00:15:01,601 --> 00:15:06,101
very popular model, highly maintained,
pretty easy to read pretty easy to modify
366
00:15:06,251 --> 00:15:10,031
- I've taken that model and I've just said,
okay I, I changed the IO part of it,
367
00:15:10,196 --> 00:15:13,546
the part that does the saves the data,
but I've left everything else the same.
368
00:15:13,686 --> 00:15:16,626
And George has written a very good model
that will scale very well right now.
369
00:15:16,626 --> 00:15:21,016
I've got jobs that that run on a
quarter trillion grid points, which is
370
00:15:21,016 --> 00:15:22,926
pretty big for an atmospheric model.
371
00:15:23,476 --> 00:15:24,856
That's a lot, that's a lot of grid points.
372
00:15:24,886 --> 00:15:29,216
And so essentially I've but the thing is
I can create more data than I can analyze.
373
00:15:29,581 --> 00:15:31,801
So it's almost like
I've got this data glut.
374
00:15:31,801 --> 00:15:34,411
I've got all this wonderful data
on disc and all these simulations.
375
00:15:34,411 --> 00:15:38,851
And now it's enough that to carry my
research until I retire, but I'm, but...
376
00:15:38,881 --> 00:15:39,921
it's a funny problem.
377
00:15:39,971 --> 00:15:43,201
I mentioned this to NSF and some
of these supercomputers create so
378
00:15:43,201 --> 00:15:46,491
much data, but yet we only have
a few years of an allocation.
379
00:15:46,541 --> 00:15:50,691
You have to scale the research
expectations somewhat because of the
380
00:15:50,691 --> 00:15:52,781
fact that it's just so much darn data.
381
00:15:52,781 --> 00:15:54,071
Gabriel: Is that a manpower problem?
382
00:15:54,081 --> 00:15:57,731
If you had enough interested students
that really wanted to help with projects
383
00:15:57,731 --> 00:15:59,141
like this, could that really help you?
384
00:15:59,141 --> 00:15:59,281
Dr.
385
00:15:59,351 --> 00:16:00,351
Orf: That could probably help.
386
00:16:00,361 --> 00:16:03,856
But I want to say before I go any
further on that route, I'm a research
387
00:16:03,856 --> 00:16:06,026
scientist, so I'm not a faculty member.
388
00:16:06,126 --> 00:16:10,956
So I'm soft funded, meaning I get all my
grant money from myself to support myself.
389
00:16:11,066 --> 00:16:14,706
And I've learned over the, I
don't want to build an empire.
390
00:16:14,706 --> 00:16:15,966
I'm just not interested in that.
391
00:16:16,126 --> 00:16:18,286
But I do want to work with
students and I have one student
392
00:16:18,286 --> 00:16:19,006
I'm working with right now.
393
00:16:19,006 --> 00:16:20,416
I've graduated a master's student.
394
00:16:20,546 --> 00:16:23,996
So I am working with students, but
there's no expectation that I must.
395
00:16:24,046 --> 00:16:27,466
But yes, if I had more people
working with me and I have several
396
00:16:27,466 --> 00:16:30,626
collaborators, external collaborators
that are working with me, then yeah,
397
00:16:30,626 --> 00:16:33,816
I could probably I don't know, get
more science published quickly, but
398
00:16:33,916 --> 00:16:36,296
again, I'm not really interested in...
399
00:16:36,586 --> 00:16:38,876
when I say building an empire,
this isn't my first rodeo.
400
00:16:38,876 --> 00:16:41,126
I've already been through the
whole tenure track process.
401
00:16:41,126 --> 00:16:43,826
The research process has been a postdoc,
been a researcher, and I'm a scientist.
402
00:16:43,926 --> 00:16:47,356
I'm liking where I'm at right now,
and I'm liking the the fact that
403
00:16:47,356 --> 00:16:50,646
I don't work 80 hours a week to
support, staying awake at night,
404
00:16:50,646 --> 00:16:52,206
worrying about feeding grad students.
405
00:16:52,256 --> 00:16:53,956
Getting funding's bad enough as it is.
406
00:16:53,956 --> 00:16:57,376
This is, it's so it's just yesterday
I was rejected another NSF grant.
407
00:16:57,376 --> 00:16:57,916
It just happens.
408
00:16:57,966 --> 00:17:01,866
It's very competitive and I don't,
it's one thing to worry about having
409
00:17:01,886 --> 00:17:05,346
to pay myself, but I don't want to have
a bunch of people who are relying on
410
00:17:05,346 --> 00:17:07,746
me to to eat, so I'm keeping it small.
411
00:17:07,746 --> 00:17:10,426
I do have ideas of just giving
the data away to everybody.
412
00:17:10,486 --> 00:17:12,586
And that's something that
I'm happy with as well.
413
00:17:12,696 --> 00:17:15,546
The data that I'm in, I've got the
code to read it and can convert
414
00:17:15,546 --> 00:17:18,326
it to net CDF, which is a very
common data format that people use.
415
00:17:18,486 --> 00:17:19,856
Yeah, so there's a lot of data.
416
00:17:19,926 --> 00:17:22,396
I've got a lot of, right now
what I'm doing with all this
417
00:17:22,396 --> 00:17:24,046
data is I'm writing ensembles.
418
00:17:24,281 --> 00:17:25,361
So you know what ensemble is?
419
00:17:25,371 --> 00:17:28,351
It's when you run a bunch of
simulations of the same event, just
420
00:17:28,351 --> 00:17:30,771
tweaking either the environment
slightly or parameters slightly
421
00:17:30,771 --> 00:17:32,791
to see how stable the solution is.
422
00:17:32,891 --> 00:17:36,871
So I can take my storm, the 24
May, 2011 storm and tweak some
423
00:17:36,871 --> 00:17:38,441
knobs and rerun the simulation.
424
00:17:38,441 --> 00:17:41,451
And maybe the tornado forms,
20 minutes later, or it doesn't
425
00:17:41,451 --> 00:17:42,591
form at all or something.
426
00:17:42,591 --> 00:17:45,801
And you, and it probably wouldn't
surprise you to know that sometimes the
427
00:17:45,811 --> 00:17:49,746
tornadoes that I show you there are other
simulations I've done where the tornado
428
00:17:49,746 --> 00:17:53,016
doesn't form, and I'm more interested
now in looking at the full spectrum of
429
00:17:53,026 --> 00:17:56,426
results and comparing them and trying
to figure out what goes on in the storms
430
00:17:56,426 --> 00:18:00,426
that produce a big long track EF5 and what
goes on in the storms that don't, so that
431
00:18:00,426 --> 00:18:04,816
perhaps someday we can use these identify
these features and hopefully be able to
432
00:18:04,816 --> 00:18:09,016
identify them on radar so that hopefully,
again, I say hopefully at some point in
433
00:18:09,016 --> 00:18:13,486
time, maybe the work I'm doing will help
issue more accurate warnings, tornado
434
00:18:13,486 --> 00:18:17,916
warnings, maybe the area over which the
tornado warning is issued is smaller
435
00:18:17,916 --> 00:18:19,686
because we're better at getting that.
436
00:18:19,826 --> 00:18:23,666
Maybe the work that I'm doing will someday
make our forecasts better and maybe not as
437
00:18:23,666 --> 00:18:28,376
many false alarms because that's another
big problem we have in forecasting is
438
00:18:28,376 --> 00:18:32,826
that, about two out of three or three
out of four tornado warnings are false
439
00:18:32,826 --> 00:18:34,236
alarms, meaning there's no tornado.
440
00:18:34,236 --> 00:18:38,206
So the public gets the cry wolf syndrome
thing where they stop listening to
441
00:18:38,206 --> 00:18:41,551
the alerts and then maybe when the big
one comes, they're not as prepared.
442
00:18:41,601 --> 00:18:44,541
So that's another reason why I do this
work is because I do really do feel like
443
00:18:44,541 --> 00:18:46,641
it has the potential to make a difference.
444
00:18:46,691 --> 00:18:48,501
And again, it's still
in the research phase.
445
00:18:48,501 --> 00:18:50,691
I've got a NOAA proposal that
I'm really excited about.
446
00:18:50,821 --> 00:18:54,201
I want to simulate a thousand
thunderstorms all sorts of cases
447
00:18:54,201 --> 00:18:56,061
that that are provided by the center.
448
00:18:56,121 --> 00:18:58,641
So there's, they have like a
sounding archive, including,
449
00:18:58,691 --> 00:19:01,271
okay, here's a sounding, here's a
hodograph, here's what happened.
450
00:19:01,546 --> 00:19:04,416
I'm going to take that data, try to run
a simulation and see what happens, do
451
00:19:04,416 --> 00:19:07,996
an ensemble, see if maybe there's a way
to use these simulations to make better
452
00:19:07,996 --> 00:19:10,276
forecasts, so yeah that's where I'm at.
453
00:19:10,366 --> 00:19:12,666
I'm always put, I'm always
trying to push the limit of the
454
00:19:12,666 --> 00:19:13,956
latest supercomputing hardware.
455
00:19:13,956 --> 00:19:17,056
So I spend as much time
writing machine allocation
456
00:19:17,056 --> 00:19:18,936
proposals as I do NSF proposals.
457
00:19:18,946 --> 00:19:21,896
Maybe not as much, but that's
like a huge important part.
458
00:19:21,896 --> 00:19:24,596
If I don't have access to the
machine, my research program is shot.
459
00:19:25,126 --> 00:19:27,076
So I've always got to
be chasing the hardware.
460
00:19:27,236 --> 00:19:28,436
It's just the nature of the beast.
461
00:19:28,536 --> 00:19:31,346
But anyway, supercomputers are
great because because not just
462
00:19:31,426 --> 00:19:33,706
atmospheric scientists can
use it, everybody can use it.
463
00:19:33,706 --> 00:19:37,006
So I'm always competing on the
machine for, with astrophysicists
464
00:19:37,026 --> 00:19:41,016
and geologists doing earthquake
modeling and chemists doing molecule
465
00:19:41,016 --> 00:19:42,256
modeling and all this stuff.
466
00:19:42,356 --> 00:19:43,056
But it's great.
467
00:19:43,066 --> 00:19:45,496
It's a great to have that, that
really good shared resource.
468
00:19:45,636 --> 00:19:46,786
Gabriel: Yeah, absolutely.
469
00:19:46,801 --> 00:19:50,251
And I think this would be as good a time
as any to start digging into some of
470
00:19:50,251 --> 00:19:53,411
the questions that I have for you, or
rather things that I'd like you to maybe
471
00:19:53,551 --> 00:19:55,731
expound upon in relation to the research.
472
00:19:55,781 --> 00:19:59,951
Let's just, let's dive right into what I
feel like is the no pun intended, primary
473
00:19:59,951 --> 00:20:04,531
current of a lot of your research, and
that is the streamwise vorticity current.
474
00:20:04,611 --> 00:20:08,671
Could you just share with folks who maybe
are not familiar with exactly what that
475
00:20:08,671 --> 00:20:11,711
means, or at least in the context of the
way that you place it into the storm?
476
00:20:11,711 --> 00:20:11,831
Dr.
477
00:20:11,831 --> 00:20:12,741
Orf: Yeah, sure.
478
00:20:12,841 --> 00:20:17,431
So I was, before I answer that question, I
was at a talk it was a severe weather talk
479
00:20:17,451 --> 00:20:19,111
a couple of years ago in the before times.
480
00:20:19,111 --> 00:20:22,841
And one of the faculty in the OS
department who's not a severe weather
481
00:20:22,841 --> 00:20:26,631
guy said, there is no other branch,
there's no other subfield in meteorology
482
00:20:26,631 --> 00:20:28,691
that has more jargon than supercells.
483
00:20:28,711 --> 00:20:32,161
In other words, you got your RFD, you
got your FFD, you got your SVC, you
484
00:20:32,161 --> 00:20:35,791
got your LFCB, there's all of these
different things and it's because of-
485
00:20:35,791 --> 00:20:36,311
Gabriel: That's alphabet soup.
486
00:20:36,361 --> 00:20:36,481
Dr.
487
00:20:36,481 --> 00:20:36,821
Orf: It is.
488
00:20:36,821 --> 00:20:39,471
And it's because there's the
conceptual model of what a
489
00:20:39,471 --> 00:20:42,321
supercell is, what discriminates
it from an ordinary thunderstorm.
490
00:20:42,431 --> 00:20:44,131
And we've come up with
these conceptual models.
491
00:20:44,141 --> 00:20:48,411
So the SVC I would say I'm not ready
to put it within the conceptual model
492
00:20:48,421 --> 00:20:51,666
framework yet, but it's a feature
that shows up at high resolution
493
00:20:51,686 --> 00:20:53,176
and not even super high resolution.
494
00:20:53,176 --> 00:20:56,196
There's been work on this, and I want to
say I'm not going to bury the lead here.
495
00:20:56,196 --> 00:20:59,246
The SVC is real because it's been
detected in the field and that is
496
00:20:59,246 --> 00:21:01,876
super, super exciting for me, but
let me now explain what it is.
497
00:21:02,026 --> 00:21:05,906
So when I was getting ready for the
talk that I gave in November, 2014,
498
00:21:05,926 --> 00:21:07,106
right here in Madison, which was cool.
499
00:21:07,106 --> 00:21:08,166
I was in Michigan at the time.
500
00:21:08,326 --> 00:21:10,906
I'm trying to make my
movies to show the storm.
501
00:21:10,916 --> 00:21:15,016
And when I look at the vorticity field,
so the vorticity field is just spin.
502
00:21:15,066 --> 00:21:16,596
You can think of it as spinning shear.
503
00:21:16,731 --> 00:21:19,251
When I just look at the three
dimensional vorticity field along
504
00:21:19,251 --> 00:21:21,191
the forward flank of the storm.
505
00:21:21,191 --> 00:21:24,641
So if you're looking at a supercell plan
view of a supercell, it's towards the
506
00:21:24,641 --> 00:21:29,331
right and near where the air that is
cooled within the cold pool, the supercell
507
00:21:29,341 --> 00:21:32,921
sort of meets the environmental air,
the ambient air in front of the storm.
508
00:21:33,091 --> 00:21:38,351
I was seeing this feature that it was
like picture like a a paper towel tube
509
00:21:38,431 --> 00:21:39,991
on its side sitting on the counter.
510
00:21:40,051 --> 00:21:42,051
So it's a horizontally oriented feature.
511
00:21:42,221 --> 00:21:42,541
Okay.
512
00:21:42,541 --> 00:21:46,271
So it starts out on near the ground
and the air is rotating as if you
513
00:21:46,271 --> 00:21:49,441
were taking that paper towel tube and
just rotating it, pushing it forward
514
00:21:49,591 --> 00:21:50,791
and rotating it with your hand.
515
00:21:50,791 --> 00:21:55,261
Again, theater of the mind here,
that tube of air, I call it a tube
516
00:21:55,271 --> 00:21:59,011
of air that's rotating on its side
is rotating primarily helically.
517
00:21:59,011 --> 00:22:02,861
Meaning what this means in atmospheric
science, it means that the velocity
518
00:22:02,861 --> 00:22:06,131
vector is pointing in the same
direction as the vorticity vector.
519
00:22:06,231 --> 00:22:10,286
So if you push your hand away from
you while rotating a clockwise, That's
520
00:22:10,286 --> 00:22:12,656
the kind of flow that the SVC shows.
521
00:22:12,696 --> 00:22:14,356
Gabriel: Now is that
almost like a football?
522
00:22:14,416 --> 00:22:15,756
Like a football being
thrown with a spiral?
523
00:22:15,756 --> 00:22:15,809
Dr.
524
00:22:15,809 --> 00:22:19,066
Orf: Yes, it's a good example
of streamlined vorticity.
525
00:22:19,106 --> 00:22:22,696
So if you think of someone throwing a
perfect spiral the, this the direction
526
00:22:22,706 --> 00:22:26,786
or the velocity of the football and
the rotation of the football, the axis
527
00:22:26,786 --> 00:22:28,296
of rotation are in the same direction.
528
00:22:28,476 --> 00:22:31,286
So you have this thing that's say,
take that football and sort of squish
529
00:22:31,286 --> 00:22:36,226
it down and spread it out like taffy
that gets ingested by the updraft.
530
00:22:36,226 --> 00:22:37,386
And here's the cool thing.
531
00:22:37,576 --> 00:22:39,606
So it takes a really abrupt upward turn.
532
00:22:39,606 --> 00:22:42,926
So you have something that's basically
rotating horizontally, and then
533
00:22:42,926 --> 00:22:47,716
it's tilted vertically where it gets
amplified by stretching, which is when
534
00:22:47,716 --> 00:22:50,826
you have, it's a term in the vorticity
equation, but where it really means
535
00:22:50,846 --> 00:22:54,541
is it has to do with the conservation
of angular momentum argument of
536
00:22:54,541 --> 00:22:57,811
tugging on something and watching
it spin faster as it's drawn inward.
537
00:22:57,941 --> 00:22:59,101
So there's, it's like that.
538
00:22:59,131 --> 00:23:03,641
There's an amplification mechanism that
goes on as this air is accelerated, and
539
00:23:03,721 --> 00:23:06,381
that does things to the pressure field.
540
00:23:06,586 --> 00:23:09,426
Now tornadoes are regions of
very intense, low pressure.
541
00:23:09,436 --> 00:23:13,256
The stronger the storm, basically the
stronger the tornado, the lower the
542
00:23:13,256 --> 00:23:15,556
pressure is in the center of a tornado.
543
00:23:15,656 --> 00:23:19,376
This SVC itself is associated with
low pressure and it really drops the
544
00:23:19,376 --> 00:23:23,076
pressure as it gets tilted upward
and sucked into the mesocyclone.
545
00:23:23,186 --> 00:23:26,716
And so there's this, so this
feature, this thing I've seen it
546
00:23:26,716 --> 00:23:28,706
precedes the formation of a tornado.
547
00:23:28,931 --> 00:23:30,771
It's there during the tornado's life.
548
00:23:30,781 --> 00:23:32,171
Sometimes it comes and goes.
549
00:23:32,171 --> 00:23:37,131
It's not something that I necessarily
think is required for tornado formation.
550
00:23:37,131 --> 00:23:38,621
I'm not going to oversell this thing.
551
00:23:38,621 --> 00:23:38,981
All right.
552
00:23:39,071 --> 00:23:41,021
It's something that is interesting.
553
00:23:41,051 --> 00:23:45,071
And it's when I, as I get to higher
and higher resolution, it starts
554
00:23:45,071 --> 00:23:47,531
to get a little more turbulent
and less smooth and laminar.
555
00:23:47,751 --> 00:23:49,591
So I'm wondering what does it
really look like in the field?
556
00:23:49,641 --> 00:23:52,541
Two papers have just come out or
one's probably still on its way
557
00:23:52,541 --> 00:23:57,031
out, I've reviewed both of them, on
the SVC being seen in radar data.
558
00:23:57,031 --> 00:24:00,921
And this is for someone like me
who's more on the modeling side, who
559
00:24:00,921 --> 00:24:05,061
discovered something in a simulation
five years ago to find that it actually
560
00:24:05,061 --> 00:24:08,971
exists in reality is probably the
most gratifying thing in my career.
561
00:24:08,971 --> 00:24:09,301
Gabriel: Yeah.
562
00:24:09,301 --> 00:24:10,401
That's so freaking cool.
563
00:24:10,401 --> 00:24:10,521
Dr.
564
00:24:10,521 --> 00:24:10,811
Orf: Yeah.
565
00:24:10,836 --> 00:24:13,046
It's something that was found in a
model and then found in the atmosphere.
566
00:24:13,056 --> 00:24:14,156
Sometimes it goes both ways.
567
00:24:14,166 --> 00:24:17,276
Sometimes you see something in the
atmosphere and then the models eventually
568
00:24:17,276 --> 00:24:19,486
see it as they figure out how to model it.
569
00:24:19,536 --> 00:24:23,056
If it's missing in one or the other than
one of the- the atmosphere is never wrong.
570
00:24:23,116 --> 00:24:23,476
Okay.
571
00:24:23,546 --> 00:24:24,286
Let's get that down.
572
00:24:24,326 --> 00:24:25,966
The atmosphere is never wrong.
573
00:24:26,136 --> 00:24:29,196
All the models are wrong, but
they're wrong at different amounts.
574
00:24:29,586 --> 00:24:33,771
Gabriel: It reminds me of, I do a lot
of trading in markets, and it just
575
00:24:33,771 --> 00:24:37,201
reminds me of the age old adage of
"the market is never wrong either."
576
00:24:37,241 --> 00:24:40,281
People like to say the price should
go up, the price should go down,
577
00:24:40,291 --> 00:24:44,291
it's no, the price is always correct,
it's you that had the misconception.
578
00:24:44,401 --> 00:24:44,561
Dr.
579
00:24:44,561 --> 00:24:47,746
Orf: Here I thought it was
just all diamond hands and
580
00:24:47,866 --> 00:24:48,956
apes together and all that.
581
00:24:49,206 --> 00:24:52,816
Sorry, inside somebody would hear that in
20 years and go, what is he talking about?
582
00:24:52,896 --> 00:24:54,106
Gabriel: Yeah, some Wall Street bets.
583
00:24:54,106 --> 00:24:54,456
Some memeology.
584
00:24:54,706 --> 00:24:55,346
I like it.
585
00:24:55,346 --> 00:24:55,476
Dr.
586
00:24:55,476 --> 00:24:55,896
Orf: Yeah.
587
00:24:56,516 --> 00:25:02,326
And that's the thing from the work that
I do is really only useful to society
588
00:25:02,326 --> 00:25:04,186
if it helps to make better forecasts.
589
00:25:04,206 --> 00:25:07,196
And that's again, I always have that
in my mind, but I'm not a forecaster.
590
00:25:07,196 --> 00:25:07,956
I didn't try to be one.
591
00:25:07,956 --> 00:25:10,766
I just hope that my work can be
useful to the forecasting community.
592
00:25:10,906 --> 00:25:12,076
And I think we're getting there.
593
00:25:12,116 --> 00:25:12,886
I hope so.
594
00:25:12,976 --> 00:25:16,886
I'm starting to see people like again,
finding in the field is the biggest thing.
595
00:25:16,936 --> 00:25:18,297
And that's just been great.
596
00:25:18,297 --> 00:25:18,717
Gabriel: Yeah.
597
00:25:18,717 --> 00:25:22,017
So I think that you're definitely
making strides in the right direction.
598
00:25:22,017 --> 00:25:25,097
What more confirmation could you
ask for than to have something show
599
00:25:25,097 --> 00:25:28,407
up in these high resolution models,
then have it start to be actually
600
00:25:28,407 --> 00:25:30,497
observed in the radar data afterwards?
601
00:25:30,497 --> 00:25:33,837
To me, that's, that would be probably
the strongest confirmation you could
602
00:25:33,837 --> 00:25:37,307
get that, even if you don't have it
exactly right at this moment, you're
603
00:25:37,317 --> 00:25:40,647
definitely sniffing up the right tree and
you have to continue in that direction.
604
00:25:40,647 --> 00:25:40,767
Dr.
605
00:25:40,767 --> 00:25:41,587
Orf: Exactly.
606
00:25:41,617 --> 00:25:43,447
And that's how I've always
approached this problem.
607
00:25:43,487 --> 00:25:47,677
I've always known, before I had the
big tornado simulation, the previous
608
00:25:47,677 --> 00:25:50,507
work, and people had done previous
work, Ming Xue at the University of
609
00:25:50,507 --> 00:25:52,247
Oklahoma always should get credit.
610
00:25:52,327 --> 00:25:55,327
He commandeered the Pittsburgh
supercomputer for a week or something.
611
00:25:55,327 --> 00:25:58,607
And he ran the old Dell city
sounding and he got a tornado to
612
00:25:58,607 --> 00:25:59,867
form, but it was in a weird way.
613
00:25:59,867 --> 00:26:00,917
So he never really published it.
614
00:26:00,917 --> 00:26:04,147
But he, I remember at the conference, when
he first showed this, I'm like, holy crap.
615
00:26:04,232 --> 00:26:04,882
That's amazing.
616
00:26:05,052 --> 00:26:08,402
I've always known that once the
computing technology caught up, it
617
00:26:08,402 --> 00:26:12,512
was just a matter of mapping the model
to the computer in an efficient way.
618
00:26:12,672 --> 00:26:16,422
And I knew from 10 years ago, when I
started really working on this problem,
619
00:26:16,422 --> 00:26:20,202
when I was on my sabbatical at NCAR, I
was like, I always the going to kill us,
620
00:26:20,272 --> 00:26:23,592
I always the big bottleneck that needs
to be dealt with before you deal with
621
00:26:23,612 --> 00:26:25,202
any other bottlenecks in your model.
622
00:26:25,262 --> 00:26:28,692
So the model itself can integrate
and have all its data, but it's
623
00:26:28,702 --> 00:26:30,452
in the memory core of the machine.
624
00:26:30,532 --> 00:26:33,192
For it to be useful to you and me,
it needs to be saved to disk so
625
00:26:33,192 --> 00:26:35,612
we can look at it and make movies
and do all the other fun stuff.
626
00:26:35,742 --> 00:26:39,702
And if you only save data every 20,
10 minutes or something, and because
627
00:26:39,702 --> 00:26:43,112
it takes half, an hour to save one
data point in your supercomputer,
628
00:26:43,132 --> 00:26:45,592
then you're never going to really see
what's going on in the simulation.
629
00:26:45,812 --> 00:26:49,452
So I came up with a scheme to save
data very efficiently that takes
630
00:26:49,452 --> 00:26:52,312
that up, basically makes that
problem go away, almost go away.
631
00:26:52,312 --> 00:26:54,942
It's still, you still pay a
price, but it's much, I can
632
00:26:54,942 --> 00:26:56,452
save every model time step.
633
00:26:56,452 --> 00:26:59,162
I've done this several times
where I save every model time.
634
00:26:59,162 --> 00:27:00,362
So you can't save any more data.
635
00:27:00,362 --> 00:27:02,502
There simply isn't any more data to save.
636
00:27:02,657 --> 00:27:05,867
And then I can go and then I
can go analyze that data, send
637
00:27:05,867 --> 00:27:09,377
trajectories through it, visualize
it, analyze, do budget analysis.
638
00:27:09,377 --> 00:27:10,857
That's where I'm going with all this.
639
00:27:10,937 --> 00:27:14,677
There's a well established analysis
process in our field for these storms,
640
00:27:14,767 --> 00:27:15,857
and I'm going to be doing that.
641
00:27:16,007 --> 00:27:20,757
I'm also though, looking at novel ways to
analyze storms that are new to the field.
642
00:27:20,817 --> 00:27:24,197
And that's another proposal that's
in review right now, but there's a
643
00:27:24,197 --> 00:27:27,437
researcher at the University of
California, San Diego that I'm working
644
00:27:27,437 --> 00:27:30,847
with who's a physicist, and he's
developed a system called Entropy
645
00:27:30,847 --> 00:27:36,677
Field Decomposition, which is a uses
Bayesian Bayes Theorem, and information-
646
00:27:36,677 --> 00:27:38,117
Gabriel: I'm a big Bayes fan, yep.
647
00:27:38,117 --> 00:27:38,257
Dr.
648
00:27:38,257 --> 00:27:40,777
Orf: Yeah, oh, alright, you should
be if you do gambling, yeah.
649
00:27:40,897 --> 00:27:44,787
There's, it uses Bayes Theorem in a
very cool way to strip - basically,
650
00:27:44,977 --> 00:27:48,447
it's hard to really explain, but it's
a way that may help us tease out those
651
00:27:48,477 --> 00:27:50,107
patterns that we're trying to find.
652
00:27:50,177 --> 00:27:51,077
It's agnostic.
653
00:27:51,077 --> 00:27:52,627
It doesn't really understand supercells.
654
00:27:52,767 --> 00:27:54,387
It can be used on MRI imagery.
655
00:27:54,387 --> 00:27:55,927
It can be used on thunderstorms.
656
00:27:55,927 --> 00:27:59,657
It can be used on trying
to map the 5G pattern of of
657
00:27:59,657 --> 00:28:01,717
signal loss due to reflection.
658
00:28:01,717 --> 00:28:03,677
I've seen EFT used in
these different ways.
659
00:28:03,837 --> 00:28:08,107
So again, I'm trying to use computational
technology to crack the nut of tornadoes.
660
00:28:08,297 --> 00:28:12,147
We're always trying to find the magical
tornado trigger, and I absolutely hate
661
00:28:12,147 --> 00:28:15,067
the term tornado trigger, by the way,
cause I don't think it's really accurate.
662
00:28:15,077 --> 00:28:18,817
I don't one of the things my research
has suggested is that some of our
663
00:28:18,827 --> 00:28:22,847
preconceived ideas of how tornadoes
form are probably not universally right.
664
00:28:22,937 --> 00:28:25,697
They're probably right sometimes,
but you don't need an RFD-
665
00:28:25,697 --> 00:28:28,077
Gabriel: That's one of the areas I
wanted to get into with you in a few
666
00:28:28,077 --> 00:28:31,567
minutes, 'cause it seems like your
research has the ability to, we'll
667
00:28:31,567 --> 00:28:36,652
just say disrupt a lot of what's
considered to be the foundational wisdom.
668
00:28:36,652 --> 00:28:36,862
Dr.
669
00:28:36,862 --> 00:28:37,392
Orf: Yes.
670
00:28:37,402 --> 00:28:39,332
I would say that's probably
an accurate statement.
671
00:28:40,162 --> 00:28:40,442
Yes.
672
00:28:40,442 --> 00:28:45,352
Gabriel: So so yeah before we get into
to that particular aspect though I want
673
00:28:45,352 --> 00:28:49,002
to focus in on one of the details that
you were talking about a few moments ago
674
00:28:49,002 --> 00:28:52,082
that honestly, I found to be one of the
most fascinating things in your research.
675
00:28:52,082 --> 00:28:56,812
So as I was watching your models pull
this streamwise vorticity and ingest
676
00:28:56,812 --> 00:29:02,657
it into the mesocyclone, I'm seeing
all these small singular vortices start
677
00:29:02,667 --> 00:29:07,197
to, I think the word that you use is
pile up in the same location and then
678
00:29:07,197 --> 00:29:11,527
they begin wrapping around each other,
which is just absolutely beautiful to
679
00:29:11,527 --> 00:29:13,847
watch from a aesthetic perspective.
680
00:29:14,477 --> 00:29:18,382
But also from actually thinking in terms
of the way that these tornadoes form,
681
00:29:18,542 --> 00:29:23,002
it does look similar to some of these
videos you see where you see especially
682
00:29:23,002 --> 00:29:26,982
during the formation of a lot of these
tornadoes, little spin ups start to hit
683
00:29:26,982 --> 00:29:31,422
the ground at different places and they're
not necessarily reflective of where the
684
00:29:31,422 --> 00:29:33,412
final tornado finds its positioning.
685
00:29:33,412 --> 00:29:33,542
Dr.
686
00:29:33,542 --> 00:29:33,822
Orf: Yes.
687
00:29:33,822 --> 00:29:37,822
Gabriel: And your modeling showing these
little vortices starting to pile up
688
00:29:37,822 --> 00:29:40,732
and one will show up and another, and
then eventually they wrap around each
689
00:29:40,732 --> 00:29:44,727
other and form this larger tube that
gets stretched and becomes more intense.
690
00:29:44,737 --> 00:29:47,716
I think that is probably one
of the more exciting things
691
00:29:47,726 --> 00:29:48,846
that I've seen in your work.
692
00:29:48,846 --> 00:29:48,966
Dr.
693
00:29:48,966 --> 00:29:50,016
Orf: Yeah, thanks.
694
00:29:50,186 --> 00:29:50,806
And I agree.
695
00:29:50,806 --> 00:29:54,996
And when I'm watching tornado videos
there's a couple that you see that same
696
00:29:54,996 --> 00:29:59,236
thing where you, of course, when you're
limited with just your eyes in the
697
00:29:59,236 --> 00:30:02,996
sense that a lot of the things, the air
movement, you can't necessarily see it.
698
00:30:03,006 --> 00:30:06,196
The only way you can see the
air is if there's a condensation
699
00:30:06,196 --> 00:30:10,246
funnel or there's perhaps dust or
something that gives you a tracer.
700
00:30:11,261 --> 00:30:13,721
There's so much going on that
we can't see with our eyes.
701
00:30:13,721 --> 00:30:19,111
Another reason but on the other hand, I
do have a lot of excitement about using
702
00:30:19,111 --> 00:30:24,201
photogrammetry, high resolution video
cameras up the wazoo, just looking at
703
00:30:24,201 --> 00:30:28,286
storms, like what Fujita did, Wakimoto's
done, it's gone away a little bit
704
00:30:28,286 --> 00:30:31,016
and it's coming back with some of the
work that say, I would say even Hank
705
00:30:31,076 --> 00:30:32,636
deserves a seat at the table for this.
706
00:30:32,636 --> 00:30:35,936
He's done some scientific work
with Anton Simon and some other
707
00:30:35,936 --> 00:30:37,356
researchers who go out in the field.
708
00:30:37,356 --> 00:30:38,724
Gabriel: Yes, Skip Talbot was out
there with him this last year.
709
00:30:38,724 --> 00:30:38,837
Dr.
710
00:30:38,837 --> 00:30:39,176
Orf: Skip Talbot.
711
00:30:39,176 --> 00:30:40,286
I know all these guys.
712
00:30:40,286 --> 00:30:43,016
I don't know him too personally,
but I know I, I'm a big fan of
713
00:30:43,016 --> 00:30:44,156
their work and what they're doing.
714
00:30:44,306 --> 00:30:47,726
So yes, what I call the "Parade of
Vortices", I've given it different names
715
00:30:47,726 --> 00:30:52,416
or my former grad student called it a
miso vortex train, along that forward
716
00:30:52,416 --> 00:30:56,367
flank, there's a storm relative motion
where these vortices are coming from the
717
00:30:56,367 --> 00:31:00,507
forward part of the storm and edging their
way towards where the main updraft is.
718
00:31:00,647 --> 00:31:03,977
And what happens, these vortices
sometimes just pass on by and head
719
00:31:03,977 --> 00:31:07,267
towards the rear flank in the 24
May simulation I'm talking about.
720
00:31:07,417 --> 00:31:13,057
And then what happens in my estimation is
as the SVC is ingested and the mesocyclone
721
00:31:13,067 --> 00:31:16,387
gets tight, stronger and stronger,
the pressure drop in the mesocyclone
722
00:31:16,387 --> 00:31:20,212
is getting more intense, instead of
thinking of a surge, pushing those things
723
00:31:20,212 --> 00:31:24,262
back, they're being pulled back by a
very strong pressure gradient force.
724
00:31:24,372 --> 00:31:27,822
So rather than ascribing
the genesis of this, of the
725
00:31:27,832 --> 00:31:30,642
tornado to a push, it's a pull.
726
00:31:30,672 --> 00:31:33,182
A push from the rear flank or
a pull from the forward flank.
727
00:31:33,202 --> 00:31:35,656
You can think of it as two
sort of similar things.
728
00:31:35,807 --> 00:31:38,177
But it's not a trigger,
there's, and again, I have,
729
00:31:38,227 --> 00:31:40,337
I'm dying to write this paper.
730
00:31:40,407 --> 00:31:41,267
I really am.
731
00:31:41,267 --> 00:31:45,607
I have the 10 meter simulation
that I showed at AMS, not this past
732
00:31:45,607 --> 00:31:47,227
AMS, but the one before in person.
733
00:31:47,417 --> 00:31:50,317
It's a 10 meter simulation, I've saved
the data every one fifth of a second.
734
00:31:50,522 --> 00:31:54,932
I've written some code that actually
goes back to the absolute genesis point
735
00:31:54,932 --> 00:31:58,312
of the vortex that becomes a tornado,
follows it up into the storm, and I
736
00:31:58,312 --> 00:32:00,192
can follow its progression over time.
737
00:32:00,192 --> 00:32:02,792
And I'm excited about looking
at this whole process from the
738
00:32:02,792 --> 00:32:04,362
perspective of the vortex itself.
739
00:32:04,412 --> 00:32:07,022
What is happening to the
vortex as it becomes a tornado?
740
00:32:07,162 --> 00:32:10,752
Because the vortex, there's a vortex
in place before there's a tornado.
741
00:32:10,872 --> 00:32:13,442
At some point it becomes a
tornado when the winds are
742
00:32:13,442 --> 00:32:15,362
strong enough to dictate that.
743
00:32:15,362 --> 00:32:17,782
And then you'll get the definition
in the EMS what a tornado is.
744
00:32:17,922 --> 00:32:21,642
But there's, tornadoes, at least
in my experience, I'm not saying I
745
00:32:21,642 --> 00:32:24,502
understand all this stuff, but there's
usually something spinning before
746
00:32:24,502 --> 00:32:27,572
it's a tornado, before it reaches
that threshold where it becomes a
747
00:32:27,572 --> 00:32:29,712
tornado, which is tornado genesis.
748
00:32:29,862 --> 00:32:32,662
Gabriel: You see that in a lot of the
video when like over dust fields are
749
00:32:32,662 --> 00:32:33,902
areas where there's a lot of debris.
750
00:32:33,952 --> 00:32:35,992
You see that stuff just start
to spin up, but there's really
751
00:32:35,992 --> 00:32:37,502
no clearly defined tornado yet.
752
00:32:37,542 --> 00:32:37,609
Dr.
753
00:32:37,609 --> 00:32:40,262
Orf: And that you're seeing the
process of it forming right there.
754
00:32:40,262 --> 00:32:43,582
And then one thing, I want to give away
too much, there's definitely a link
755
00:32:43,582 --> 00:32:46,582
between what's going on in the ground
and what's going on higher in the storm.
756
00:32:46,582 --> 00:32:49,342
And that's what I'm mostly interested
in because there's this question
757
00:32:49,342 --> 00:32:52,482
that comes out every so often,
Jana Houser at Ohio University is
758
00:32:52,482 --> 00:32:55,742
interested in this, do tornadoes
form from the bottom up or top down?
759
00:32:55,742 --> 00:32:57,752
And I know you talked about
that with Hank as well.
760
00:32:57,812 --> 00:32:59,592
Gabriel: Yeah, I try to talk about
it with everyone because it is
761
00:32:59,592 --> 00:33:00,062
a source of extreme controversy.
762
00:33:00,062 --> 00:33:00,342
Dr.
763
00:33:00,342 --> 00:33:00,842
Orf: Sure.
764
00:33:00,842 --> 00:33:05,092
And I would say that- yeah I
would ask you back, what is
765
00:33:05,092 --> 00:33:06,757
going up and what is going down?
766
00:33:06,837 --> 00:33:08,137
Before I answer that question.
767
00:33:09,337 --> 00:33:12,597
Hey everyone, Kay here from Rough
Skies Ahead and Chaser Chat.
768
00:33:12,717 --> 00:33:16,737
I wanted to give a quick shout out
to the new Chaser Chat YouTube page,
769
00:33:16,737 --> 00:33:20,567
where you can find all your favorite
episodes uploaded in video form with
770
00:33:20,577 --> 00:33:22,637
a transcription to follow along with.
771
00:33:22,687 --> 00:33:24,337
The link is in the podcast description.
772
00:33:24,397 --> 00:33:27,537
Gabriel: You're probably wearing
clothes right now, and I know
773
00:33:27,537 --> 00:33:29,237
you like listening to podcasts.
774
00:33:29,347 --> 00:33:31,647
Why not combine the two
and support the show?
775
00:33:31,717 --> 00:33:33,097
Head over to chaserchat.
776
00:33:33,127 --> 00:33:37,117
com or click the link in the podcast
description, and you'll find all sorts
777
00:33:37,117 --> 00:33:42,187
of items like t-shirts, hoodies, beanies,
ball caps, coffee mugs, and more.
778
00:33:42,277 --> 00:33:45,567
And if none of that sounds good,
at least buy a freaking sticker.
779
00:33:45,647 --> 00:33:46,937
It's only three bucks.
780
00:33:46,947 --> 00:33:51,257
Visit the merch store today and support
the podcast by going to chaserchat.
781
00:33:51,277 --> 00:33:53,947
com or clicking the link
in the podcast description.
782
00:33:55,237 --> 00:33:55,887
Gabriel: I like it.
783
00:33:55,887 --> 00:33:56,007
Dr.
784
00:33:56,007 --> 00:33:58,237
Orf: Because are you
talking about momentum?
785
00:33:58,307 --> 00:34:00,657
Are you talking about a
visual condensation funnel?
786
00:34:00,657 --> 00:34:01,417
Of course you're not.
787
00:34:01,507 --> 00:34:02,867
Are you talking about vorticity?
788
00:34:02,877 --> 00:34:04,657
What is going up and what is going down?
789
00:34:04,667 --> 00:34:09,357
What is you know, because I'll tell you
what, from what I see, the analogy is like
790
00:34:09,357 --> 00:34:11,187
the dart leader for a lightning strike.
791
00:34:11,507 --> 00:34:12,437
This is just an analogy.
792
00:34:12,477 --> 00:34:14,057
OK, don't think I'm trying.
793
00:34:14,097 --> 00:34:15,417
This is an analogy.
794
00:34:15,507 --> 00:34:16,627
So you think of a dart leader.
795
00:34:16,627 --> 00:34:19,387
You see these two little
flickery things and then crack.
796
00:34:19,387 --> 00:34:20,707
Oh, there is your lightning bolt.
797
00:34:21,537 --> 00:34:24,337
The dart leader part is the
part I'm focusing on, alright.
798
00:34:24,357 --> 00:34:27,507
There's this stuff that goes on
before the tornado really gets going.
799
00:34:27,677 --> 00:34:29,007
That's the Genesis part.
800
00:34:29,037 --> 00:34:31,977
And it's like fascinating, from what
I've seen, so I'm working on this
801
00:34:31,977 --> 00:34:33,517
right now in the 10 meter simulation.
802
00:34:33,637 --> 00:34:35,327
I've got most of the code figured out.
803
00:34:35,367 --> 00:34:37,197
I just need to do the
analysis and write it up.
804
00:34:37,447 --> 00:34:40,797
But there's definitely, at least for
this, again, I want to be clear here.
805
00:34:40,797 --> 00:34:44,487
I'm not trying to say I'm solving all
tornadoes because I'm focusing mostly on
806
00:34:44,527 --> 00:34:46,777
a specific event that's a top end event.
807
00:34:46,897 --> 00:34:48,967
But you gotta start somewhere,
you gotta start somewhere.
808
00:34:48,967 --> 00:34:52,867
I am in the process of running dozens to
a hundreds of different environments if I
809
00:34:52,927 --> 00:34:57,047
can get the funding and the machine time
and all that to try to just look at this
810
00:34:57,057 --> 00:34:58,997
from almost just a brute force approach.
811
00:34:59,457 --> 00:35:03,067
Take all these simulations and run
them, use automated processes like EFT
812
00:35:03,137 --> 00:35:06,497
to analyze them and to come up with
some sort of parameter understanding of
813
00:35:06,497 --> 00:35:07,947
what patterns lead to certain things.
814
00:35:08,087 --> 00:35:11,867
So I'm taking a brute force approach
to the problem while also taking a
815
00:35:11,887 --> 00:35:15,847
"let's just look at one storm and
understand it and then learn something
816
00:35:15,847 --> 00:35:19,077
from it" but don't necessarily
attribute that to all storms.
817
00:35:19,177 --> 00:35:22,757
I'm sure there are tornadoes that form
when there's a surge in the rear flank
818
00:35:22,827 --> 00:35:26,792
that compresses vorticity, helps to
spin it up, and then the tornado forms.
819
00:35:26,792 --> 00:35:28,817
I'm absolutely positively
sure that happens in many
820
00:35:28,817 --> 00:35:31,327
cases, but it's not necessary.
821
00:35:31,387 --> 00:35:31,727
Okay.
822
00:35:31,727 --> 00:35:32,657
That's what I'm saying.
823
00:35:32,657 --> 00:35:35,457
It doesn't have to happen in
because it doesn't happen in
824
00:35:35,457 --> 00:35:37,137
my simulations of this event.
825
00:35:37,207 --> 00:35:40,377
There's literally no RFD
surge or even an RFD.
826
00:35:40,547 --> 00:35:44,587
The meso is so frigging strong,
it's like, where is the RFD?
827
00:35:44,587 --> 00:35:45,807
Yeah.
828
00:35:45,807 --> 00:35:47,147
And there's another acronym for you.
829
00:35:47,352 --> 00:35:48,192
Anyway, yeah.
830
00:35:48,192 --> 00:35:49,872
The small scale stuff is important.
831
00:35:49,872 --> 00:35:53,922
It's important that you capture the full
spectrum of turbulence, as full as you
832
00:35:53,922 --> 00:35:57,122
can to capture these motions because
otherwise they don't get resolved.
833
00:35:57,122 --> 00:35:58,922
And that has a upscale effect.
834
00:35:58,922 --> 00:36:02,342
You're not, you might get what we
call a TLV, a tornado-like vortex.
835
00:36:02,472 --> 00:36:05,972
And if you look at the literature,
most tornado papers are actually TLV
836
00:36:05,972 --> 00:36:10,362
papers because they're run at resolution
that really doesn't resolve a tornado.
837
00:36:10,492 --> 00:36:14,012
I would argue that my simulations, at
least like the 10 meters for sure, you're
838
00:36:14,012 --> 00:36:18,042
literally resolving the tornado because
it breaks down into multiple vortices.
839
00:36:18,052 --> 00:36:20,372
It does things that look very
similar to what's in the field.
840
00:36:20,522 --> 00:36:24,212
You see it go from a tight needle,
a single cell to a two cell,
841
00:36:24,212 --> 00:36:26,832
to a multiple vortex that goes
undergoes all that morphology.
842
00:36:26,932 --> 00:36:29,092
Like we, some storms do the same thing.
843
00:36:29,162 --> 00:36:31,722
Some storms come out the gate
as a multiple vortex tornado.
844
00:36:31,722 --> 00:36:34,812
I have yet to simulate a storm
that starts out multiple vortex,
845
00:36:34,832 --> 00:36:36,072
but I've seen that in the field.
846
00:36:36,072 --> 00:36:39,922
What's the one in Arkansas from a few
years ago, the super photogenic...
847
00:36:40,052 --> 00:36:40,612
oh, crud.
848
00:36:40,612 --> 00:36:41,922
I always forget these names.
849
00:36:42,012 --> 00:36:43,517
Gabriel: Yeah, I was gonna say Dr.
850
00:36:43,517 --> 00:36:47,257
Frame, my co host on the the
more educational episodes, he is
851
00:36:47,317 --> 00:36:48,707
the best I've ever met at this.
852
00:36:48,717 --> 00:36:52,097
He can rattle off the date, the
time, the place, and everything.
853
00:36:52,097 --> 00:36:54,167
I forget the first one
that I try to remember.
854
00:36:54,167 --> 00:36:54,287
Dr.
855
00:36:54,287 --> 00:36:55,427
Orf: I should have done
my homework before.
856
00:36:55,497 --> 00:36:57,997
Anyway there's one where you're
literally, someone's right on the
857
00:36:57,997 --> 00:37:01,837
storm, and you're watching these
multiple dirt vortices swirl around,
858
00:37:02,027 --> 00:37:03,737
and the tornado just forms like that.
859
00:37:03,737 --> 00:37:06,517
So it's, I don't know, maybe it was
a tornado before then, I don't know.
860
00:37:06,517 --> 00:37:10,457
Anyway, coming back to your original
point, getting these small scale features
861
00:37:10,457 --> 00:37:15,757
right, I think is important to getting the
answers right to the scientific problem.
862
00:37:15,907 --> 00:37:18,887
So that's why I'm always trying to
push the frontier on resolution.
863
00:37:18,937 --> 00:37:21,117
I'm at 10 meters, there's, they're
already talking about the next
864
00:37:21,117 --> 00:37:23,787
supercomputer beyond the one
that's, currently state of the art.
865
00:37:23,867 --> 00:37:25,547
And, can we go to higher resolution?
866
00:37:25,727 --> 00:37:28,447
Somebody could ask do you
really need to go to five meters
867
00:37:28,447 --> 00:37:29,667
to four meters or whatnot?
868
00:37:29,737 --> 00:37:32,997
And I would say the biggest problem
with all the work I do is how we
869
00:37:32,997 --> 00:37:34,637
handle the surface boundary condition.
870
00:37:34,757 --> 00:37:36,527
It the models are idealized that we use.
871
00:37:36,527 --> 00:37:39,507
In other words, there's no trees,
there's no plants, there's no topography,
872
00:37:39,507 --> 00:37:42,957
the earth is flat, the Coriolis force
isn't turned on because who needs it?
873
00:37:43,057 --> 00:37:43,877
It's a thunderstorm.
874
00:37:44,217 --> 00:37:47,357
It's built into the sounding really,
but you don't have to worry about the
875
00:37:47,357 --> 00:37:49,257
air getting deflected in the supercell.
876
00:37:49,277 --> 00:37:50,307
It's such a small factor.
877
00:37:50,467 --> 00:37:52,797
So we had, these models
are highly idealized.
878
00:37:52,807 --> 00:37:56,667
We don't currently the model
doesn't centrifuge debris or say
879
00:37:56,687 --> 00:37:58,777
hydrometeors, rain and stuff outside.
880
00:37:58,777 --> 00:38:02,037
So our tornadoes are full of rain instead
of having a little donut like they should.
881
00:38:02,217 --> 00:38:06,397
So I'm very happy to point out
the shortcomings of my approach
882
00:38:06,397 --> 00:38:07,827
and I'm very aware of them.
883
00:38:07,977 --> 00:38:11,927
But on the other hand, there's
no globally recognized answers
884
00:38:11,927 --> 00:38:12,957
to some of these problems.
885
00:38:12,997 --> 00:38:15,222
How do you handle the ground correctly?
886
00:38:15,272 --> 00:38:19,482
And I, this is where video footage helps
a lot when I so called "turn friction on",
887
00:38:19,482 --> 00:38:21,662
as we say in the model, it screws it up.
888
00:38:21,692 --> 00:38:23,012
It screws up the storm that I've got.
889
00:38:23,012 --> 00:38:26,122
It no longer produces the
long track EF5 tornado.
890
00:38:26,202 --> 00:38:29,292
I believe me, I've tried many times
doing different things with friction.
891
00:38:29,292 --> 00:38:32,152
I've gently introduced it as
if it were like a little ridge.
892
00:38:32,152 --> 00:38:35,262
I've done all this funny stuff and
it just, it really messes things up.
893
00:38:35,752 --> 00:38:38,652
And there's, recent work by
Paul Markowski at Penn State
894
00:38:38,652 --> 00:38:39,622
who's looking at this problem.
895
00:38:39,622 --> 00:38:41,632
He's one of the top in the world on this.
896
00:38:41,682 --> 00:38:46,002
And, even he acknowledges, maybe there's
no perfect answer to this problem.
897
00:38:46,002 --> 00:38:50,012
How do you handle the ground in the
most physically correct way that both
898
00:38:50,032 --> 00:38:53,577
captures the way that say the cold pool
interacts with the ground and your gust
899
00:38:53,587 --> 00:38:56,957
fronts are erect because you have some
friction, you have that, but doesn't
900
00:38:56,987 --> 00:39:00,967
trash the tornado because the tornado,
what's the boundary layer in a tornado?
901
00:39:00,967 --> 00:39:01,137
Dr.
902
00:39:01,137 --> 00:39:01,827
Orf: How deep is it?
903
00:39:01,827 --> 00:39:02,777
Is it millimeters?
904
00:39:02,777 --> 00:39:03,517
I don't know.
905
00:39:03,677 --> 00:39:07,327
But if you turn friction on traditionally,
it's just, it might wipe out the
906
00:39:07,327 --> 00:39:09,347
forces that make the tornado work.
907
00:39:09,567 --> 00:39:14,327
So anyway, but however, there's certain
aspects of tornadoes, the most violent
908
00:39:14,447 --> 00:39:17,647
winds in the tornadoes wouldn't happen
if it weren't for friction on the ground.
909
00:39:17,717 --> 00:39:20,357
So there's all these issues and
this is what makes science fun.
910
00:39:20,357 --> 00:39:23,667
I'm sitting here, I feel like
sometimes I just making this stuff
911
00:39:23,667 --> 00:39:25,527
up, but the computer's doing it.
912
00:39:25,657 --> 00:39:27,347
But then it's trying to
make sense of it all.
913
00:39:27,457 --> 00:39:31,387
And again, coming back to why I spend
so much time looking at real footage
914
00:39:31,387 --> 00:39:34,852
is that I've I'm still convincing
myself that I'm on the right track
915
00:39:34,852 --> 00:39:37,932
because even though perhaps the surface
boundary isn't being done correctly,
916
00:39:38,072 --> 00:39:39,692
my tornadoes look like real tornadoes.
917
00:39:39,702 --> 00:39:41,372
My supercells look like real supercells.
918
00:39:41,392 --> 00:39:43,922
They look even similar to the
ones that I'm trying to model.
919
00:39:44,082 --> 00:39:48,412
So that alone tells me I'm again, I'm
not gonna, I'm not going to necessarily
920
00:39:48,412 --> 00:39:51,777
hang up my hat because somebody thinks
I need to have friction on to be right.
921
00:39:51,827 --> 00:39:54,627
It's, I've tried that and I'm
still trying to get it to work.
922
00:39:54,627 --> 00:39:57,927
But in the meanwhile, let's see if we can
figure some stuff out what's going on.
923
00:39:58,077 --> 00:40:01,077
With the SVC, or tornado genesis,
try to figure these things out,
924
00:40:01,127 --> 00:40:02,567
and and that's just what I do.
925
00:40:02,587 --> 00:40:05,607
We're all trying to figure out
why tornadoes form sometimes
926
00:40:05,647 --> 00:40:07,127
and don't form other times.
927
00:40:07,127 --> 00:40:09,977
I shouldn't say everyone, but if you're
in, if you're in severe weather, and
928
00:40:09,977 --> 00:40:13,167
you study supercells and tornadoes,
that's one of the biggest, that's
929
00:40:13,177 --> 00:40:14,357
probably the biggest question, right?
930
00:40:14,367 --> 00:40:19,077
Why does tornado, Supercell A form a long
track EF5 where Supercell B, which is in
931
00:40:19,077 --> 00:40:24,777
a very similar environment, very similar
SRH, very similar CAPE, wind profile, dew
932
00:40:24,777 --> 00:40:28,177
point, all that stuff, and it produces a
nice long, the supercell with no tornado.
933
00:40:28,337 --> 00:40:32,037
And I think some of the factors
involved include inhomogeneities
934
00:40:32,047 --> 00:40:34,547
with the surrounding environment,
topographical things.
935
00:40:34,667 --> 00:40:37,557
I'm thinking that there's these
little pools of vorticity that may
936
00:40:37,557 --> 00:40:41,007
be out there that if they're just
ingest, ingested just right, might
937
00:40:41,007 --> 00:40:42,697
be like an SVC and waiting, right?
938
00:40:42,697 --> 00:40:46,287
It's just not, and I'm being flipping
here, but there's going to be natural
939
00:40:46,297 --> 00:40:50,122
inhomogeneities that the storm is going to
gobble up, and some of those might be the
940
00:40:50,122 --> 00:40:54,182
factor here, or interaction with different
surface roughness because there's a line
941
00:40:54,182 --> 00:40:55,782
of trees over here or a valley over here.
942
00:40:55,952 --> 00:41:00,192
Those things may matter on a per
storm basis as to why some of
943
00:41:00,202 --> 00:41:01,652
these form tornadoes and why don't.
944
00:41:01,722 --> 00:41:05,932
And it may end up being a really difficult
problem to solve because of all the
945
00:41:05,932 --> 00:41:09,942
subtleties and the nonlinearities and
that are inherent to this kind of problem.
946
00:41:10,112 --> 00:41:10,382
Gabriel: Yeah.
947
00:41:10,382 --> 00:41:13,462
And I think that it's really cool
how you're pressing forward with
948
00:41:13,472 --> 00:41:17,787
the research and not getting hung
up on letting, what's the saying?
949
00:41:17,787 --> 00:41:19,647
"Letting the perfect be
the enemy of the good".
950
00:41:19,657 --> 00:41:23,767
You're not worried so much about getting
everything exactly the way it is with
951
00:41:23,767 --> 00:41:26,237
the surface layer because that'll come.
952
00:41:26,257 --> 00:41:28,717
There'll be enough people that are
interested in this and I already see it.
953
00:41:28,717 --> 00:41:31,237
There's enough people, like you said,
you uploaded a science video to YouTube.
954
00:41:31,647 --> 00:41:32,697
It got 20,000 views.
955
00:41:32,697 --> 00:41:33,597
That's not supposed to happen.
956
00:41:34,007 --> 00:41:37,077
There are plenty of people who are
going to be thinking about this
957
00:41:37,077 --> 00:41:40,187
and maybe non traditional ways and
they're going to be spending their
958
00:41:40,187 --> 00:41:42,317
entire days working on this problem.
959
00:41:42,337 --> 00:41:43,367
I think it's going to get there.
960
00:41:43,367 --> 00:41:46,227
So I'm glad to see that you're
powering forward with the really
961
00:41:46,227 --> 00:41:47,877
cool revelations that you have found.
962
00:41:47,877 --> 00:41:47,997
Dr.
963
00:41:47,997 --> 00:41:48,567
Orf: Yeah.
964
00:41:48,597 --> 00:41:50,157
Again I'm honest with this.
965
00:41:50,157 --> 00:41:53,417
That's why I'm very happy to talk
about the things that are wrong because
966
00:41:53,417 --> 00:41:55,227
it's not as if I'm unaware of them.
967
00:41:55,227 --> 00:41:58,557
It's just that I'm unaware how to make it
quote unquote, or, and I still think that
968
00:41:58,557 --> 00:42:01,487
higher resolution is probably going to
be the key to getting the surface right.
969
00:42:01,617 --> 00:42:04,397
I've had discussions with other people
who think I'm full of bologne, full of
970
00:42:04,397 --> 00:42:09,077
whatever on that issue, but I do think
that will help in order to capture the
971
00:42:09,077 --> 00:42:10,747
right kind of interaction with the ground.
972
00:42:10,747 --> 00:42:13,747
You just need to have a lot more grid
points, which is really unfortunate
973
00:42:13,747 --> 00:42:17,917
because when you have a higher, the higher
the resolution of the model the shorter of
974
00:42:17,917 --> 00:42:22,207
a time step, the model can use to maintain
stability, computational stability.
975
00:42:22,257 --> 00:42:26,407
In other words, when I run I
run in 1/20th of, no, actually
976
00:42:26,407 --> 00:42:27,467
it's even worse than that.
977
00:42:27,537 --> 00:42:31,657
1/20th of a second intervals in
time in the 10 meter simulation
978
00:42:31,657 --> 00:42:33,107
in order to maintain stability.
979
00:42:33,237 --> 00:42:37,902
So you have to run a lot of times to get
the storm to where you want it to be.
980
00:42:37,992 --> 00:42:39,582
So it's just it's depressing.
981
00:42:39,632 --> 00:42:42,332
There might be enough memory on your
machine to fit the problem in the
982
00:42:42,332 --> 00:42:46,852
memory, but it's going to take 74 years
of dedicated time to get it to work
983
00:42:47,172 --> 00:42:48,412
and no one's going to give you that.
984
00:42:48,422 --> 00:42:51,472
No one's built me a supercomputer
and I don't want them to, it's, it
985
00:42:51,472 --> 00:42:53,112
would be a terrible use of resources.
986
00:42:53,162 --> 00:42:54,852
So yeah we just move forward.
987
00:42:55,012 --> 00:42:57,852
What makes me feel pretty good is
I only have to go think back to my
988
00:42:57,852 --> 00:43:01,432
undergrad days in the eighties and
early, in the grad days in the 90s
989
00:43:01,592 --> 00:43:04,132
to see how far we've come to today.
990
00:43:04,267 --> 00:43:07,057
And we've, we've made
huge leaps of knowledge.
991
00:43:07,187 --> 00:43:10,757
Things like the SVC, I think are
potentially helping to nudge things
992
00:43:10,757 --> 00:43:14,457
forward, especially when you, if/when
these can be detected on radar.
993
00:43:14,617 --> 00:43:17,207
It's going to be difficult, I
think, to detect a lot of these
994
00:43:17,207 --> 00:43:20,457
things on operational weather
radars, like our WSR 88D's-
995
00:43:20,477 --> 00:43:22,437
Gabriel: It's just not
close enough to the ground.
996
00:43:22,437 --> 00:43:22,567
Dr.
997
00:43:22,567 --> 00:43:26,212
Orf: Yeah, not close enough to the
ground and too low a frequency.
998
00:43:26,412 --> 00:43:29,492
The research radars tend to be
higher frequency, more attenuation,
999
00:43:29,502 --> 00:43:31,682
you get closer to the storm,
you get better resolution.
1000
00:43:31,792 --> 00:43:33,792
In order to capture some of this
stuff, you really need to put
1001
00:43:33,792 --> 00:43:37,732
yourself there and maybe do RHI
scans as well as just PPI scans.
1002
00:43:37,752 --> 00:43:40,872
So don't just swing that sucker around
in a circle, make it go up and down
1003
00:43:40,882 --> 00:43:43,802
like you're vertical slice through the
cloud as opposed to a horizontal slice.
1004
00:43:43,902 --> 00:43:47,602
But yeah, it takes a whole lot of, and
that's why I say fieldwork is super duper
1005
00:43:47,602 --> 00:43:50,552
important, and I'm so glad that people
are doing it, and that people are good
1006
00:43:50,552 --> 00:43:54,032
at it, and people want to do it, and
because that data is absolutely precious
1007
00:43:54,082 --> 00:43:57,652
and it's what's need, we need to always
be pushing, in my opinion, we always need
1008
00:43:57,652 --> 00:43:59,272
to be pushing forward on these problems.
1009
00:43:59,392 --> 00:44:02,452
Both observationally,
theoretically, and numerically.
1010
00:44:02,492 --> 00:44:03,782
That's the way our field works.
1011
00:44:03,782 --> 00:44:06,312
You got the three stools
of meteorology right there.
1012
00:44:07,162 --> 00:44:08,102
Three legs on the stool.
1013
00:44:08,112 --> 00:44:10,422
Sorry, the other three stools,
three legs of the stool.
1014
00:44:10,622 --> 00:44:13,332
They often talk about teaching
research and service as being the
1015
00:44:13,332 --> 00:44:15,652
three legs of the academic stool.
1016
00:44:15,652 --> 00:44:18,812
It's It's theory,
modeling, and observations.
1017
00:44:18,862 --> 00:44:20,522
The three legs of the
stool from meteorology.
1018
00:44:20,562 --> 00:44:22,282
Alright, I spent way too
much time talking about that.
1019
00:44:23,082 --> 00:44:25,612
Gabriel: What I wanted to close
the podcast out with is part of
1020
00:44:25,612 --> 00:44:28,832
it from a psychological standpoint
that's really interesting to me.
1021
00:44:28,832 --> 00:44:31,282
The first thing that came to my mind, I
don't know if it's the first thing, one
1022
00:44:31,282 --> 00:44:34,992
of the first things that came to my mind
when I was watching your videos is just
1023
00:44:34,992 --> 00:44:41,122
the fact that it's going to take some
hubris to be the person that is disrupting
1024
00:44:41,132 --> 00:44:46,032
this conventional knowledge of what
causes supercell genesis and maintenance,
1025
00:44:46,232 --> 00:44:49,262
tornado genesis and maintenance,
and I think that's a good thing.
1026
00:44:49,262 --> 00:44:52,542
You've got to have somebody who says
"Yeah, I see what all you guys are saying,
1027
00:44:52,542 --> 00:44:55,682
and you're all super smart, and I respect
the hell out of all of you, but I think
1028
00:44:55,682 --> 00:44:58,702
that you might be wrong, or at least you
might be a little wrong in this regard".
1029
00:44:58,702 --> 00:45:01,732
So how has that actually
affected your work?
1030
00:45:01,732 --> 00:45:02,642
Have you ran into that?
1031
00:45:02,642 --> 00:45:06,452
And do you think that as your work
gains more prominence, and also as
1032
00:45:06,462 --> 00:45:10,062
more people maybe begin to take it
seriously from a research and academic
1033
00:45:10,062 --> 00:45:12,472
standpoint, you're gonna encounter
that more and more into the future?
1034
00:45:12,562 --> 00:45:12,722
Dr.
1035
00:45:12,722 --> 00:45:14,922
Orf: Yeah, It's a small field.
1036
00:45:15,042 --> 00:45:17,652
Severe storm researchers,
everyone knows everyone.
1037
00:45:17,712 --> 00:45:20,002
It's just, it's a small field.
1038
00:45:20,122 --> 00:45:25,452
I don't, I just take the, I
don't have a lot of my own
1039
00:45:25,642 --> 00:45:27,432
identity tied to my research.
1040
00:45:27,442 --> 00:45:28,392
I am a scientist.
1041
00:45:28,392 --> 00:45:29,092
I love science.
1042
00:45:29,102 --> 00:45:29,612
I do it.
1043
00:45:29,632 --> 00:45:30,482
It makes me happy.
1044
00:45:30,642 --> 00:45:32,952
I guess I published it
and I get grants and yay.
1045
00:45:33,162 --> 00:45:37,082
I think it's good for the field when
theories are turned on their heads.
1046
00:45:37,082 --> 00:45:38,822
That's when the big discoveries are made.
1047
00:45:38,822 --> 00:45:40,322
That's what the important history.
1048
00:45:40,322 --> 00:45:41,442
You see this all the time.
1049
00:45:41,562 --> 00:45:42,782
And I'm not saying I've done that.
1050
00:45:42,782 --> 00:45:48,172
What I'm saying is there is a tendency
for people to build their career around
1051
00:45:48,352 --> 00:45:52,802
a certain thing, and it can be difficult
when maybe the thing that you built your
1052
00:45:52,802 --> 00:45:56,907
career around, or that you're mainly many
of the papers that you wrote, maybe it
1053
00:45:56,907 --> 00:45:58,547
wasn't as important as you thought it was.
1054
00:45:58,547 --> 00:46:01,427
I'm not saying it's like I said,
I am absolutely sure that some
1055
00:46:01,427 --> 00:46:06,367
storms have a surge, boom, you get
a tornado because it's just, it
1056
00:46:06,367 --> 00:46:08,337
makes sense, but is it necessary?
1057
00:46:08,337 --> 00:46:11,907
Is this the way this is
the way the Mandalorian?
1058
00:46:12,057 --> 00:46:13,167
No, I don't think it is.
1059
00:46:13,197 --> 00:46:15,237
I think it's a lot more complex than that.
1060
00:46:15,247 --> 00:46:19,772
And I've identified a mode, let's call
it a mode, of tornado formation that
1061
00:46:19,772 --> 00:46:24,812
does not require the ingredients that
we thought were inquired for a tornado.
1062
00:46:24,962 --> 00:46:27,302
So I think the field's
ripe for disruption.
1063
00:46:27,312 --> 00:46:30,102
And I'm not the only one who's
doing work that's calling things.
1064
00:46:30,152 --> 00:46:30,722
That's science.
1065
00:46:30,722 --> 00:46:31,687
That's how progress is made.
1066
00:46:31,687 --> 00:46:31,946
Gabriel: Absolutely.
1067
00:46:31,946 --> 00:46:32,067
Dr.
1068
00:46:32,067 --> 00:46:34,412
Orf: And someone's gonna come around
and kick my ass at some point, I'm sure.
1069
00:46:34,412 --> 00:46:34,922
And that's fine.
1070
00:46:34,922 --> 00:46:35,402
That's good.
1071
00:46:35,402 --> 00:46:38,372
That's good for science and that's what
we should, how we should be approaching
1072
00:46:38,372 --> 00:46:39,782
the problem is that it's good for science.
1073
00:46:39,902 --> 00:46:41,402
But no, people have been friendly.
1074
00:46:41,502 --> 00:46:44,532
I have only, no, I, I've gotten,
I get rejected all the time,
1075
00:46:44,532 --> 00:46:47,012
but so do other scientists in
their grants or their papers.
1076
00:46:47,012 --> 00:46:49,442
It's, I've never seen anything where
somebody is just like, this guy's
1077
00:46:49,442 --> 00:46:54,002
full of bologne and it's because
he's not subscribing to my idea.
1078
00:46:54,062 --> 00:46:56,462
Criticism is good, but yeah,
we're, it's a tough crowd.
1079
00:46:56,472 --> 00:46:58,782
The severe weather community
is a tough crowd, believe me.
1080
00:46:58,782 --> 00:47:01,992
Gabriel: I see it anecdotally on
Twitter all the time, so I don't know
1081
00:47:01,992 --> 00:47:04,762
if it's a good or a bad thing that
you're not on there, but it definitely
1082
00:47:04,762 --> 00:47:05,932
would get pretty vicious, I think.
1083
00:47:05,942 --> 00:47:06,062
Dr.
1084
00:47:06,062 --> 00:47:09,142
Orf: The reason why I, one of
the main reasons I spent all this
1085
00:47:09,162 --> 00:47:11,882
effort on visualizing stuff is I
just hold it in front of anyone's
1086
00:47:11,882 --> 00:47:13,292
face and say, okay, here it is.
1087
00:47:13,432 --> 00:47:14,532
Argue with the model.
1088
00:47:14,582 --> 00:47:15,462
Don't argue with me.
1089
00:47:15,472 --> 00:47:18,542
Argue with the fricking
model because there it is.
1090
00:47:18,542 --> 00:47:19,342
I am showing it.
1091
00:47:19,352 --> 00:47:20,292
The model is showing it.
1092
00:47:20,512 --> 00:47:24,132
So I just hold it in front of me and
say, Hey, sorry, man, this is it.
1093
00:47:24,802 --> 00:47:27,662
Argue with the model,
argue with the environment.
1094
00:47:27,662 --> 00:47:28,162
I don't know.
1095
00:47:28,242 --> 00:47:29,232
But it's good.
1096
00:47:29,232 --> 00:47:30,272
It's good for the field.
1097
00:47:30,372 --> 00:47:31,502
And I don't know.
1098
00:47:31,552 --> 00:47:33,242
I most, I don't know.
1099
00:47:33,432 --> 00:47:36,602
Gabriel: 'Cause when I heard you say,
if I could interject real quick, when
1100
00:47:36,602 --> 00:47:39,932
I heard you talking about with, I think
it was with Hank, where talking about
1101
00:47:39,932 --> 00:47:45,827
how the RFD is oftentimes not active
or persistent during tornado genesis
1102
00:47:45,847 --> 00:47:48,757
and a lot of these videos that you see
and then your suggestion being that
1103
00:47:48,757 --> 00:47:56,007
the RFD might be more a result of the
actual storm itself causing it rather
1104
00:47:56,007 --> 00:47:58,767
than, sorry, I've got a little, in a
truly professional manner, I had an
1105
00:47:58,767 --> 00:47:59,947
alarm starting to go off on my phone.
1106
00:48:00,747 --> 00:48:03,927
And yeah, you talking about how
the ingestion of the streamlines
1107
00:48:04,097 --> 00:48:07,017
vorticity and the causing of this
low pressure perturbation up into
1108
00:48:07,017 --> 00:48:10,227
the mesocyclone might actually also
be causing the RFD and not the other
1109
00:48:10,227 --> 00:48:13,917
way around I think has the potential
to ruffle a lot of people's feathers.
1110
00:48:13,967 --> 00:48:14,087
Dr.
1111
00:48:14,087 --> 00:48:17,547
Orf: Here's the thing, I've watched a lot
of chase video and it's a safer place to
1112
00:48:17,557 --> 00:48:20,797
be in the RFD area because the storm's
moving away from you, but you'll see
1113
00:48:20,797 --> 00:48:24,037
somebody with a camera and then the wind
suddenly starts blowing in their face.
1114
00:48:24,037 --> 00:48:26,257
They're like " RFD!", I'm like, stop.
1115
00:48:26,347 --> 00:48:29,527
That was a gust, horizontal
gust in your face.
1116
00:48:29,732 --> 00:48:33,892
You are assuming that the, that gust
came from a downburst like action
1117
00:48:33,892 --> 00:48:36,982
in the rear flank that caused air to
spread out and blast you in the face.
1118
00:48:37,052 --> 00:48:41,522
However, it is also possible that
a very rapidly tightening pressure
1119
00:48:41,522 --> 00:48:45,262
gradient has caused the wind to
just really get fast, and you happen
1120
00:48:45,262 --> 00:48:46,272
to be in, it moved over your...
1121
00:48:46,272 --> 00:48:46,682
I don't know.
1122
00:48:46,842 --> 00:48:48,392
There's a lot of turbulent things.
1123
00:48:48,402 --> 00:48:49,182
There's a lot of things going on.
1124
00:48:49,412 --> 00:48:52,952
And it could be that at the same
time these things going on in the
1125
00:48:52,952 --> 00:48:55,352
rear flank are getting active,
there's also stuff going on in the
1126
00:48:55,352 --> 00:48:56,822
forward flank and the mesocyclone.
1127
00:48:57,022 --> 00:48:59,672
So in other words, it might not be
one's causing the other, they're
1128
00:48:59,672 --> 00:49:03,242
both caused by something else,
or it's all mixed in together.
1129
00:49:03,352 --> 00:49:07,152
But I've always never liked the argument
that there's this magical downdraft region
1130
00:49:07,152 --> 00:49:10,952
that just goes poof, and is like trying
to set out things to start tornadoes
1131
00:49:10,952 --> 00:49:12,672
going, which is how I see that theory.
1132
00:49:12,867 --> 00:49:15,687
The theory used to be required
in order to bring vorticity.
1133
00:49:15,717 --> 00:49:17,577
You can't grow vorticity
out of the ground.
1134
00:49:17,577 --> 00:49:18,867
So you always want to...
1135
00:49:18,867 --> 00:49:22,017
people always invoke downdrafts as
bringing vorticity to the ground.
1136
00:49:22,017 --> 00:49:23,787
It's the only thing you can
do is bring vorticity to the
1137
00:49:23,787 --> 00:49:24,497
ground and some downdrafts.
1138
00:49:24,667 --> 00:49:25,727
I don't disagree with that.
1139
00:49:25,867 --> 00:49:28,437
It's just that the downdrafts
that are bringing vorticity to
1140
00:49:28,437 --> 00:49:32,987
the ground are like 15 kilometers
forward of the storm and there's
1141
00:49:32,987 --> 00:49:34,657
already all churning and vorticity.
1142
00:49:34,657 --> 00:49:37,567
There's tons of stuff spinning already,
so that's already been taken care of.
1143
00:49:37,747 --> 00:49:40,817
You don't need an RFD
to add more vorticity.
1144
00:49:40,847 --> 00:49:41,907
That's not what's needed.
1145
00:49:42,297 --> 00:49:47,007
The horizontal motion of an RFD surge
can compress vorticity and shrink
1146
00:49:47,007 --> 00:49:50,117
it down, and then maybe that'll
intensify a vortex, but it's got to
1147
00:49:50,117 --> 00:49:52,537
be somehow connected to the parent
cloud, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
1148
00:49:52,537 --> 00:49:53,127
Gabriel: All right.
1149
00:49:53,127 --> 00:49:53,247
Dr.
1150
00:49:53,247 --> 00:49:54,357
Orf: So anyway, I don't know.
1151
00:49:54,552 --> 00:49:57,732
Again I make these videos, I make
these movies because they tell
1152
00:49:57,732 --> 00:49:59,362
a better story than I can tell.
1153
00:49:59,452 --> 00:50:02,142
But obviously you need to break
it down into the component
1154
00:50:02,152 --> 00:50:03,202
bits and that's the hard part.
1155
00:50:03,202 --> 00:50:05,902
And yes, that's where I'm hoping
to get another couple of postdocs
1156
00:50:05,922 --> 00:50:08,592
working with me soon, hoping to
get a couple of grants to work out.
1157
00:50:08,692 --> 00:50:10,542
And to make my team a little bigger.
1158
00:50:10,712 --> 00:50:12,902
But yeah yeah, this has been fun.
1159
00:50:13,242 --> 00:50:15,632
It's always fun to talk about
your research and this has
1160
00:50:15,632 --> 00:50:17,142
been an enjoyable podcast.
1161
00:50:17,142 --> 00:50:18,012
Gabriel: Absolutely.
1162
00:50:18,032 --> 00:50:20,712
I really appreciate you joining
us here to talk about this.
1163
00:50:20,712 --> 00:50:21,992
I say us, I guess it's just me.
1164
00:50:21,992 --> 00:50:22,612
So that would be the-
1165
00:50:22,612 --> 00:50:22,862
Dr.
1166
00:50:22,892 --> 00:50:25,352
Orf: And all your lovely thousands
and thousands of listeners.
1167
00:50:25,462 --> 00:50:26,242
Millions of listeners!
1168
00:50:26,242 --> 00:50:26,692
Gabriel: That's true.
1169
00:50:26,712 --> 00:50:26,782
That's true.
1170
00:50:26,782 --> 00:50:27,522
Include all of that.
1171
00:50:27,692 --> 00:50:30,775
Hopefully at some point, not only
will, for my own personal my own
1172
00:50:30,775 --> 00:50:33,003
personal gain have that, but that'd
be pretty cool if there were actually
1173
00:50:33,003 --> 00:50:35,284
millions of folks who were interested
in severe weather and all that stuff.
1174
00:50:35,284 --> 00:50:38,774
We'd probably be on the fast track to
getting research like yours solved.
1175
00:50:38,804 --> 00:50:39,014
Dr.
1176
00:50:39,014 --> 00:50:39,684
Orf: There you go.
1177
00:50:39,684 --> 00:50:40,824
No I'm glad you're doing this.
1178
00:50:40,864 --> 00:50:43,154
I think it's really
great, and I look forward.
1179
00:50:43,154 --> 00:50:44,904
I, like I said, I listened
to Hank's interview.
1180
00:50:44,904 --> 00:50:47,994
I'll probably listen around a little
more and keep an ear on your podcast.
1181
00:50:48,054 --> 00:50:52,654
So yeah, like I said, I'm not a chaser
at heart, but I appreciate all the hard
1182
00:50:52,654 --> 00:50:56,014
work that people do who go out in the
field, whether for fun or for science.
1183
00:50:56,134 --> 00:50:58,244
And the only thing I ever
say is just be careful.
1184
00:50:58,294 --> 00:51:00,904
I, you're all adults, but just be careful.
1185
00:51:00,964 --> 00:51:02,074
It's, it can be dangerous.
1186
00:51:02,574 --> 00:51:04,014
Gabriel: Yeah, no this is very true.
1187
00:51:04,074 --> 00:51:06,954
My girlfriend actually, who's in the
other room right now, she won't she
1188
00:51:06,954 --> 00:51:08,374
won't- I won't say she won't let me.
1189
00:51:08,384 --> 00:51:10,394
She does not like it when
I go out chasing alone.
1190
00:51:10,404 --> 00:51:12,314
She prefers to go out
with me and be the driver.
1191
00:51:12,314 --> 00:51:13,944
So I'm with you on that.
1192
00:51:13,944 --> 00:51:16,114
It's definitely something that's
more safe, especially if you
1193
00:51:16,114 --> 00:51:17,194
have another person with you.
1194
00:51:17,194 --> 00:51:17,324
Dr.
1195
00:51:17,324 --> 00:51:17,724
Orf: Yep.
1196
00:51:17,834 --> 00:51:18,444
Absolutely.
1197
00:51:18,584 --> 00:51:19,214
Absolutely.
1198
00:51:19,354 --> 00:51:21,054
But again, I'm not here
to preach to people.
1199
00:51:21,084 --> 00:51:21,824
People are going to go out.
1200
00:51:21,854 --> 00:51:22,774
They're going to do their thing.
1201
00:51:22,824 --> 00:51:23,814
And that's just fine.
1202
00:51:23,944 --> 00:51:27,424
But I'm going to sit here in my basement
and try to debug models and figure out
1203
00:51:27,424 --> 00:51:29,054
what's going on with tornadoes my own way.
1204
00:51:29,554 --> 00:51:32,484
Gabriel: I'm waiting for the day
when Hank actually just decides
1205
00:51:32,624 --> 00:51:35,864
to say, screw it, gets out of his
vehicle and just rides the tornado.
1206
00:51:35,894 --> 00:51:39,219
Just hops on a piece of debris and
that's how he sails off into the sunset.
1207
00:51:39,219 --> 00:51:41,099
'Cause it seems like that's
what he's trending towards.
1208
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:41,369
Dr.
1209
00:51:41,369 --> 00:51:43,139
Orf: Oh, I've talked
to him about this, man.
1210
00:51:43,149 --> 00:51:45,739
At least he showed a little bit of
sense and I've got a wife now and I
1211
00:51:45,739 --> 00:51:48,899
got someone else to think about, so
maybe I'll be a little more careful.
1212
00:51:48,899 --> 00:51:50,439
Dude, be careful.
1213
00:51:50,439 --> 00:51:52,149
You're too cool to die right now.
1214
00:51:52,419 --> 00:51:52,869
Gabriel: Yes.
1215
00:51:52,989 --> 00:51:54,209
I cannot agree more.
1216
00:51:54,209 --> 00:51:57,009
So on that, we will close out the podcast.
1217
00:51:57,029 --> 00:51:59,999
If you could real quick, could you please
plug where people could find your work?
1218
00:51:59,999 --> 00:52:00,119
Dr.
1219
00:52:00,119 --> 00:52:00,599
Orf: Sure.
1220
00:52:00,599 --> 00:52:02,469
So my name's Leigh Orf, L E I G H.
1221
00:52:02,819 --> 00:52:06,759
O R F, plop that into Google, it'll
do ya, but O R F dot M E D I A.
1222
00:52:06,759 --> 00:52:09,599
orf.Media will get ya everywhere,
everything you need to know about me.
1223
00:52:09,689 --> 00:52:12,279
Gabriel: Awesome, thanks again
for joining us, and folks, I will
1224
00:52:12,279 --> 00:52:15,609
be back very shortly with another
interview coming up in a couple days.
1225
00:52:15,669 --> 00:52:16,838
Take care, everybody.
1226
00:52:16,839 --> 00:52:17,939
Gabriel: Thanks for listening.
1227
00:52:18,019 --> 00:52:21,309
If you're not already subscribed,
hit that button right now and then
1228
00:52:21,309 --> 00:52:24,949
make sure notifications are turned on
so you never miss an episode again.
1229
00:52:25,019 --> 00:52:27,569
There are lots of ways to show
your support for Chaser Chat.
1230
00:52:27,649 --> 00:52:30,709
You can pick up something from the
merch store, leave a rating and a review
1231
00:52:30,709 --> 00:52:34,399
on your favorite podcast app, leave
a comment and a like on YouTube, or
1232
00:52:34,399 --> 00:52:37,919
just share the link to this episode on
your preferred social media platform.
1233
00:52:38,059 --> 00:52:40,649
Thanks again for listening, and
I'll catch you on the next episode.
00:00:00,060 --> 00:00:00,790
Gabriel: Hey, everyone.
2
00:00:00,900 --> 00:00:03,540
You may have noticed that
this is a flashback episode.
3
00:00:03,590 --> 00:00:07,160
Over the years, the number of people
that listen to Chaser Chat has grown
4
00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,179
significantly, and I wanted to highlight
some of the older podcasts so that all
5
00:00:11,179 --> 00:00:12,870
of you new folks have a chance to listen.
6
00:00:12,879 --> 00:00:17,409
There may be some dated references,
advertisements, etc., so just ignore
7
00:00:17,409 --> 00:00:19,089
those, and I hope you enjoy the episode.
8
00:00:22,008 --> 00:00:24,647
Gabriel: Howdy folks, and
welcome back to another episode
9
00:00:24,677 --> 00:00:26,508
of the Chaser Chat Podcast.
10
00:00:26,677 --> 00:00:30,528
I'm your host, Gabriel Harber, and I
want to thank all of you for tuning
11
00:00:30,528 --> 00:00:35,218
in, whether it is on YouTube, Spotify,
Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, you
12
00:00:35,218 --> 00:00:36,897
can find us in all of those places.
13
00:00:36,968 --> 00:00:40,138
Today's guest interview
is really exciting.
14
00:00:40,138 --> 00:00:44,728
It's somebody who you have probably
heard about before if you are at all
15
00:00:44,738 --> 00:00:48,578
in the weather community on YouTube,
on Twitter, reading research articles,
16
00:00:48,738 --> 00:00:52,898
or if you listened to my previous
podcast with Pecos Hank Shima, because
17
00:00:52,977 --> 00:00:56,348
he's got a video or two with this
person on his channel, and we talked
18
00:00:56,348 --> 00:00:57,738
about it a little bit on that episode.
19
00:00:57,798 --> 00:01:01,218
So without further ado, I
am excited to introduce Dr.
20
00:01:01,218 --> 00:01:01,978
Leigh Orf.
21
00:01:02,038 --> 00:01:02,798
How's it going today, Dr.
22
00:01:02,798 --> 00:01:02,888
Orf?
23
00:01:02,888 --> 00:01:03,008
Dr.
24
00:01:03,008 --> 00:01:04,068
Orf: I'm doing well.
25
00:01:04,068 --> 00:01:05,198
It's a little chilly outside.
26
00:01:05,198 --> 00:01:08,508
No storm chasing out here, although
I think I saw a snownado earlier
27
00:01:09,048 --> 00:01:10,958
. Gabriel: It always blows my mind.
28
00:01:11,858 --> 00:01:15,668
It always blows my mind when I see
the people on Twitter who are in full
29
00:01:15,668 --> 00:01:19,138
storm chase mode during the spring
and summer months going into full
30
00:01:19,138 --> 00:01:21,988
winter chase mode and they're driving
halfway across the country to get
31
00:01:21,988 --> 00:01:23,898
snowed on and slide around in ice.
32
00:01:23,898 --> 00:01:24,688
I think it's crazy.
33
00:01:24,898 --> 00:01:25,408
Dr.
34
00:01:25,408 --> 00:01:28,093
Orf: Yeah, you can't miss when
you're chasing a blizzard.
35
00:01:28,143 --> 00:01:29,693
You're gonna catch it.
36
00:01:29,693 --> 00:01:30,793
It's gonna catch you, though.
37
00:01:30,853 --> 00:01:32,183
It's the same goes with hurricanes.
38
00:01:32,273 --> 00:01:33,703
Don't chase hurricanes, people.
39
00:01:34,503 --> 00:01:37,573
Gabriel: I see a lot of those pictures
on Twitter where people have the rulers
40
00:01:37,573 --> 00:01:40,842
just stuck into the snow and then,
an hour or two later, they're in the
41
00:01:40,842 --> 00:01:43,733
same location because eventually, once
it starts snowing, you can't really
42
00:01:43,733 --> 00:01:45,143
go anywhere or do anything anymore.
43
00:01:45,143 --> 00:01:45,263
Dr.
44
00:01:45,263 --> 00:01:48,043
Orf: Yeah if you live in the South
and you're a chaser, and you're
45
00:01:48,043 --> 00:01:50,853
bored during the off season,
you gotta do something, right?
46
00:01:50,853 --> 00:01:53,753
Gabriel: Yeah, I suppose that'd be the
equivalent to the athletes who during
47
00:01:53,753 --> 00:01:56,943
the off season travel all over the world
to do those exotic training regiments.
48
00:01:56,943 --> 00:01:57,073
Dr.
49
00:01:57,073 --> 00:01:58,043
Orf: Yes, that's right.
50
00:01:58,043 --> 00:01:59,612
Gabriel: Maybe that's
the analog there, so.
51
00:01:59,682 --> 00:01:59,852
Dr.
52
00:01:59,852 --> 00:02:00,252
Orf: There you go.
53
00:02:00,252 --> 00:02:02,613
Gabriel: All right, but we did
not set up this conversation to
54
00:02:02,613 --> 00:02:04,663
talk about winter storm chasing.
55
00:02:04,793 --> 00:02:08,503
We set it up because you have some
fascinating research that's going on
56
00:02:08,503 --> 00:02:14,022
right now, and I know that the audio only
medium is probably not the best way to
57
00:02:14,022 --> 00:02:17,652
convey exactly what it is you're doing
but I'm hoping that this conversation
58
00:02:17,652 --> 00:02:21,683
can really pique the curiosity of the
people who are listening, give them
59
00:02:21,683 --> 00:02:25,983
some new ideas and new ways of thinking
about storm development and storm
60
00:02:25,983 --> 00:02:29,683
maintenance, and then they'll be inspired
to go check out your YouTube channel.
61
00:02:29,693 --> 00:02:31,922
So if you want to just start
actually by letting people know
62
00:02:31,922 --> 00:02:34,802
where they can find all the different
presentations that you've done,
63
00:02:34,802 --> 00:02:36,263
I think that'd be a good place.
64
00:02:36,303 --> 00:02:36,843
Dr.
65
00:02:36,843 --> 00:02:37,213
Orf: Sure.
66
00:02:37,403 --> 00:02:40,143
I want to say first though,
I love the audio only mode.
67
00:02:40,193 --> 00:02:43,263
I'm a HAM radio operator and I'm
not active right now, but I have
68
00:02:43,263 --> 00:02:44,953
my license and I used to do radio.
69
00:02:44,953 --> 00:02:47,163
So I like theater of
the mind kind of stuff.
70
00:02:47,173 --> 00:02:48,633
So anyhow, yeah.
71
00:02:48,683 --> 00:02:52,263
I have one, a one stop shop that
just gets you to all my stuff
72
00:02:52,333 --> 00:02:54,033
at the website or stop media.
73
00:02:54,218 --> 00:02:54,648
That's it.
74
00:02:54,768 --> 00:02:58,898
ORF.Media, and you'll get a link
to there to my YouTube channel my
75
00:02:58,898 --> 00:03:00,938
research profile and things like that.
76
00:03:01,048 --> 00:03:07,018
And yeah, so what I've done is starting
in 2014 when I, my research first broke, I
77
00:03:07,018 --> 00:03:12,123
had this idea that I had prepared my talk
as a complete video where you just press
78
00:03:12,123 --> 00:03:15,173
play and talk, and I had just done all the
timings is the first time I had done this.
79
00:03:15,303 --> 00:03:17,853
And afterwards I'm like, I should
just upload this to YouTube.
80
00:03:18,063 --> 00:03:18,848
People would like this.
81
00:03:18,848 --> 00:03:19,753
So I did that.
82
00:03:19,843 --> 00:03:22,743
And without the audio, cause I hadn't
gotten the, I hadn't really planned this.
83
00:03:22,743 --> 00:03:25,253
This was just all like spur of
the moment thing, and I gave
84
00:03:25,253 --> 00:03:26,693
the talk, it was well received.
85
00:03:26,703 --> 00:03:27,383
I uploaded it.
86
00:03:27,393 --> 00:03:30,462
Suddenly there's 20, 000 views, and
I'm like, wait a minute, that's not
87
00:03:30,462 --> 00:03:32,052
supposed to happen for a scientific talk.
88
00:03:32,172 --> 00:03:35,897
Then I got the audio from the guy who
recorded it, and I had my Final Cut
89
00:03:35,897 --> 00:03:39,927
Pro, I stitched it in, I re uploaded
it, and then, that's the one you'll
90
00:03:39,927 --> 00:03:41,517
see now, where it's all synced up.
91
00:03:41,737 --> 00:03:45,927
But, so all I've really done with
the YouTube, and it's my only form of
92
00:03:45,927 --> 00:03:49,847
social media that I currently employ
is I just post my talks with no
93
00:03:49,847 --> 00:03:52,407
fancy anything, and I'm probably
going to change this and start doing
94
00:03:52,407 --> 00:03:53,817
some more production work on this.
95
00:03:53,957 --> 00:03:56,007
Nothing like Hank, he's
just so good at this.
96
00:03:56,077 --> 00:03:58,077
I just want to kick it up a notch.
97
00:03:58,077 --> 00:04:01,007
I'm also working on doing
some video work for a museum.
98
00:04:01,007 --> 00:04:04,477
So there's a lot of interest in the
numerical simulations of the tornadoes.
99
00:04:04,537 --> 00:04:08,567
And I guess, and stop me if I start
rambling, for me, I've been working
100
00:04:08,567 --> 00:04:10,547
on work like this for a long time.
101
00:04:10,722 --> 00:04:14,302
What got me into weather, and I
know it's a common question to
102
00:04:14,302 --> 00:04:15,682
ask, what got you into the weather?
103
00:04:15,682 --> 00:04:18,882
And I won't go back to my childhood
just yet because it really, like
104
00:04:18,882 --> 00:04:22,182
most meteorologists, it does, but
the computer angle is what really
105
00:04:22,182 --> 00:04:23,722
brought me into what I'm doing.
106
00:04:23,802 --> 00:04:27,812
The kind of work I do, which involves
simulating thunderstorms, requires a lot
107
00:04:27,812 --> 00:04:31,012
of technical knowledge of how computers
work because I'm using the world's most
108
00:04:31,022 --> 00:04:35,932
powerful supercomputers because you
need them to resolve flow features in
109
00:04:35,932 --> 00:04:39,992
thunderstorms that we're finding out are
probably quite important when it comes
110
00:04:39,992 --> 00:04:43,732
to understanding the nature of tornadoes,
how they form, how they're maintained
111
00:04:43,732 --> 00:04:45,472
and ultimately how they dissipate.
112
00:04:45,612 --> 00:04:50,612
So I basically what I do as my
research, my area is numerical
113
00:04:50,622 --> 00:04:54,492
simulation of deep moist convection,
primarily supercell thunderstorms,
114
00:04:54,492 --> 00:04:57,802
but I've also done work with air mass
thunderstorms and looking at downbursts.
115
00:04:57,982 --> 00:05:01,722
My PhD work was on downbursts, which
are these intense down drafts that
116
00:05:01,722 --> 00:05:06,992
form out of mostly every day sort of
regular run of the mill thunderstorms,
117
00:05:06,992 --> 00:05:10,912
ordinary thunderstorms where you have
rain or maybe even some snow falling
118
00:05:10,912 --> 00:05:15,492
into a very deep, neutral dry layer
where the thermodynamic processes can
119
00:05:15,492 --> 00:05:17,702
kick off a really strong downdraft.
120
00:05:17,712 --> 00:05:22,522
So downbursts, of course, were responsible
for a lot of air carrier crashes.
121
00:05:22,582 --> 00:05:26,302
And the good news on downbursts is that
pilots are trained to understand them.
122
00:05:26,572 --> 00:05:28,622
Airports have terminal
Doppler weather radars.
123
00:05:28,652 --> 00:05:30,872
Now there's just nobody,
you don't really see...
124
00:05:30,892 --> 00:05:33,602
planes used to fall out of the sky
a lot more than they do in the-
125
00:05:33,602 --> 00:05:34,002
Gabriel: Yeah.
126
00:05:34,002 --> 00:05:35,832
I was reading about that a
couple of weeks ago, actually.
127
00:05:35,832 --> 00:05:36,352
It's crazy.
128
00:05:36,352 --> 00:05:36,482
Dr.
129
00:05:36,482 --> 00:05:37,262
Orf: It really is.
130
00:05:37,262 --> 00:05:39,457
This was just, obviously
nobody probably liked it, but
131
00:05:39,457 --> 00:05:40,797
this was just the way it was.
132
00:05:40,907 --> 00:05:44,037
There, and I don't want to go down that
road either because the airliner, the
133
00:05:44,037 --> 00:05:47,077
airlines have done a lot for safety
since then, and some of it had to
134
00:05:47,077 --> 00:05:49,977
do with maintenance not really being
done right, and other parts were
135
00:05:49,977 --> 00:05:51,337
just, pilots weren't trained enough.
136
00:05:51,467 --> 00:05:54,777
To deal with these thunderstorms
and the science wasn't there yet.
137
00:05:54,787 --> 00:05:57,787
Ted Fujita did all the
credible work on downbursts.
138
00:05:57,867 --> 00:05:58,637
But anyway, yeah.
139
00:05:58,747 --> 00:05:59,757
Ask me some questions.
140
00:05:59,757 --> 00:06:00,687
I could ramble all day.
141
00:06:00,687 --> 00:06:04,127
Remember, I'm also a former college
professor and we can just ramble on.
142
00:06:04,307 --> 00:06:05,637
We don't even care if anyone's listening.
143
00:06:05,647 --> 00:06:08,517
Gabriel: That's the great thing about
the podcast medium is it was invented
144
00:06:08,527 --> 00:06:09,997
for people to ramble on and on.
145
00:06:09,997 --> 00:06:11,047
So it's perfect.
146
00:06:11,047 --> 00:06:11,177
Dr.
147
00:06:11,177 --> 00:06:11,677
Orf: There you go.
148
00:06:11,777 --> 00:06:12,237
There you go.
149
00:06:12,277 --> 00:06:12,607
Gabriel: Yeah.
150
00:06:12,607 --> 00:06:12,717
Yeah.
151
00:06:12,737 --> 00:06:16,427
So there's a lot of places that that I
could start because just there's so many
152
00:06:16,427 --> 00:06:19,307
little details of the presentations
of yours that I've watched that I want
153
00:06:19,307 --> 00:06:22,237
to get into, but I think we should
probably start with what you mentioned
154
00:06:22,237 --> 00:06:24,997
a few moments ago, which is just give
us a little bit of the backstory.
155
00:06:25,047 --> 00:06:26,947
Like you said, everyone
has a childhood story.
156
00:06:27,097 --> 00:06:29,667
They were influenced by the weather
some way when they were younger, and
157
00:06:29,667 --> 00:06:32,867
it grew up as this passion in them and
just, yeah, give us your your quick bio.
158
00:06:32,867 --> 00:06:32,997
Dr.
159
00:06:32,997 --> 00:06:37,292
Orf: Yeah, and this is something that's,
I've just done some recent research into.
160
00:06:37,932 --> 00:06:40,882
So when I was five years old,
I lived out in Massachusetts.
161
00:06:40,972 --> 00:06:43,272
Suburb of Springfield, it would
have been Ludlow, Massachusetts.
162
00:06:43,372 --> 00:06:48,352
And on July 6th, 1974, and I found
this in the newspaper just the other
163
00:06:48,352 --> 00:06:51,302
day, I went to the old newspaper
archives online to do this because I
164
00:06:51,452 --> 00:06:52,762
wanted to know what day this happened.
165
00:06:52,842 --> 00:06:56,142
It was a day, so I was like five
years old, and I remember that day
166
00:06:56,372 --> 00:06:57,962
in that it was unsettled all day.
167
00:06:57,962 --> 00:07:01,232
There was like thunderstorms rolling in
the morning, then it broke, and then there
168
00:07:01,232 --> 00:07:02,752
was some thunderstorms in the afternoon.
169
00:07:02,752 --> 00:07:04,662
And then it was like, "eh"
then the weather service is
170
00:07:04,662 --> 00:07:06,322
issuing things, and I'm five.
171
00:07:06,322 --> 00:07:07,312
I don't really understand this stuff.
172
00:07:07,372 --> 00:07:10,972
But I remember the sense of tension
and just the weather is just angry.
173
00:07:11,192 --> 00:07:11,462
Gabriel: Yeah.
174
00:07:11,492 --> 00:07:11,622
Dr.
175
00:07:11,622 --> 00:07:14,932
Orf: So anyway my sister who was four,
she's like a little over a year younger
176
00:07:14,932 --> 00:07:16,602
than I, and we had just taken our baths.
177
00:07:16,602 --> 00:07:19,152
We're going to bed, the storms raging.
178
00:07:19,152 --> 00:07:20,282
So it was a thunderstorm outside.
179
00:07:20,822 --> 00:07:22,052
This is 1974.
180
00:07:22,062 --> 00:07:22,402
Okay.
181
00:07:22,402 --> 00:07:24,802
So knowledge of storms and
stuff wasn't in my head yet.
182
00:07:24,802 --> 00:07:26,452
So my father and myself were in my room.
183
00:07:26,452 --> 00:07:28,062
We lived in old Cape Cod in the upstairs.
184
00:07:28,062 --> 00:07:30,522
I'm looking out the window
probably towards, I don't even
185
00:07:30,522 --> 00:07:32,972
remember how the house is oriented
towards the east let's say.
186
00:07:33,082 --> 00:07:36,002
My sister and my mother are in her
room across the house on the same
187
00:07:36,002 --> 00:07:37,862
floor watching the storm as well.
188
00:07:37,862 --> 00:07:40,752
And then all I remember is my
mother screaming at the top
189
00:07:40,752 --> 00:07:42,642
of her voice my father's name.
190
00:07:42,772 --> 00:07:43,742
I turned around.
191
00:07:43,752 --> 00:07:46,962
I don't remember a boom or
anything, but I saw fire.
192
00:07:47,462 --> 00:07:48,812
I saw glowing wires.
193
00:07:48,812 --> 00:07:49,982
I saw insulation.
194
00:07:49,982 --> 00:07:50,962
I saw paneling.
195
00:07:50,962 --> 00:07:55,432
Remember, this is the 70s that was on
fire and I just bolted down the stairs.
196
00:07:55,532 --> 00:07:56,892
So Dr Orf our house got hit by lightning.
197
00:07:56,942 --> 00:08:00,102
My mother couldn't hear for a couple
of days because of the concussion
198
00:08:00,102 --> 00:08:01,462
wave just knocked out her hearing.
199
00:08:01,612 --> 00:08:03,902
My sister's canopy was on
fire for crying out loud.
200
00:08:03,952 --> 00:08:05,002
But there was a small fire.
201
00:08:05,002 --> 00:08:06,712
It was put out quickly by my father.
202
00:08:06,822 --> 00:08:09,862
That event was a lot of houses
got hit by lightning that night.
203
00:08:09,882 --> 00:08:11,662
That's what the newspaper told me.
204
00:08:11,662 --> 00:08:15,902
This is a first page of the Springfield
union, so that was event number one.
205
00:08:16,097 --> 00:08:16,387
Okay.
206
00:08:16,397 --> 00:08:19,237
Event number one, Massachusetts
house hit by lightning.
207
00:08:19,347 --> 00:08:19,997
Oh God.
208
00:08:20,067 --> 00:08:21,187
Mother nature is trying to kill me.
209
00:08:21,187 --> 00:08:24,177
Now at this point in my life, I'm
just, I'm scientifically minded.
210
00:08:24,177 --> 00:08:25,507
I know I liked science-y stuff.
211
00:08:25,507 --> 00:08:28,357
I was just always playing with
microscopes and listening to the
212
00:08:28,357 --> 00:08:31,077
radio and climbing up trees and
putting up antennas, stuff like that.
213
00:08:31,077 --> 00:08:32,497
I mean, some of that
was a little bit later.
214
00:08:32,597 --> 00:08:34,107
So let's fast forward a few years.
215
00:08:34,247 --> 00:08:37,827
This is in Feeding Hills, Massachusetts,
also a suburb of Springfield, just
216
00:08:37,827 --> 00:08:39,087
north of the Connecticut border.
217
00:08:39,217 --> 00:08:46,417
And October 3rd, 1974 was a day when an F4
tornado hit Bradley International Airport.
218
00:08:46,467 --> 00:08:50,457
Ted Fujita called this the Windsor
Locks tornado, and that sucker went
219
00:08:50,457 --> 00:08:55,097
right up north the Connecticut Valley,
River Valley, and it did F4 damage,
220
00:08:55,127 --> 00:08:57,017
killed a few people, damaged a lot.
221
00:08:57,027 --> 00:08:58,327
It was a short lived storm.
222
00:08:58,537 --> 00:09:00,837
And it barely grazed our house.
223
00:09:00,837 --> 00:09:03,267
I think the, I remember running upstairs.
224
00:09:03,297 --> 00:09:06,557
I'd just come home from school, my
sister's a year younger, different school.
225
00:09:06,707 --> 00:09:09,287
Turns out that a tree had fallen
on the roof or the roof had gotten
226
00:09:09,287 --> 00:09:11,787
peeled off and she couldn't come home
cause it was flooding and there was
227
00:09:11,787 --> 00:09:13,067
all sorts of stuff going on there.
228
00:09:13,207 --> 00:09:13,977
She was fine.
229
00:09:14,077 --> 00:09:16,397
There was a little bit of damage
in our backyard, but I remember
230
00:09:16,397 --> 00:09:18,707
going to school the next day and
everyone was talking about this,
231
00:09:18,707 --> 00:09:20,237
but that was another scary thing.
232
00:09:20,317 --> 00:09:24,257
So here I am, I haven't even reached
puberty basically and Dr Orf Mother
233
00:09:24,257 --> 00:09:25,407
Nature's tried to kill me twice.
234
00:09:25,622 --> 00:09:30,262
Now I say this sort of in jest,
but I am one of those rare
235
00:09:30,442 --> 00:09:33,992
severe weather scientists who
really has no urge to chase.
236
00:09:34,122 --> 00:09:38,852
And I know this is a chaser blog, and
I think what it really is these events
237
00:09:38,852 --> 00:09:42,827
weren't the kind of things that inspired
me to want to go out and see this stuff.
238
00:09:42,827 --> 00:09:43,687
It scared me.
239
00:09:43,787 --> 00:09:45,267
To this day, I don't
really like lightning.
240
00:09:45,487 --> 00:09:47,987
I don't really, I look, man,
you can't outrun that stuff.
241
00:09:48,097 --> 00:09:49,187
And lightning is too fast.
242
00:09:49,457 --> 00:09:51,727
So when it's lightning, I'm
not as bad as our old dog was.
243
00:09:51,727 --> 00:09:55,377
It would crawl into the bathtub
and whimper, but I don't really
244
00:09:55,377 --> 00:09:57,237
like being around severe weather.
245
00:09:57,512 --> 00:10:00,732
And the good thing is, it turns out
I'm pretty good at this computer stuff.
246
00:10:00,802 --> 00:10:02,712
I'd be wasting my efforts
if I was in the field.
247
00:10:02,712 --> 00:10:06,212
I don't think, I've done, I'm a HAM radio
guy, built antennas, I built radios.
248
00:10:06,212 --> 00:10:07,772
I like doing hands on stuff.
249
00:10:07,772 --> 00:10:08,552
I love weather.
250
00:10:08,552 --> 00:10:11,922
I love all that stuff, but I don't
want to spend my March, April, May,
251
00:10:11,922 --> 00:10:13,452
whatever, driving around the Great Plains.
252
00:10:13,452 --> 00:10:14,852
It's just not something that interests me.
253
00:10:14,902 --> 00:10:17,052
And there's other people who
are better at it than I am.
254
00:10:17,222 --> 00:10:21,262
And there's plenty of people who take
wonderful video that that I find useful.
255
00:10:21,272 --> 00:10:23,567
Folks like Hank and tons of storm chasers.
256
00:10:23,877 --> 00:10:26,717
I'm on YouTube all the time
looking at tornado videos.
257
00:10:26,887 --> 00:10:31,717
Not all the time, but oftentimes I'm
looking there for just inspiration
258
00:10:31,717 --> 00:10:34,807
or just trying to see things that
might show up in my simulations that
259
00:10:34,807 --> 00:10:37,877
are also in the field because that's
really important to what I do is being
260
00:10:37,877 --> 00:10:39,847
able to match a reality to the models.
261
00:10:39,847 --> 00:10:39,967
Dr.
262
00:10:39,967 --> 00:10:41,597
Orf: But anyway, so that's my story.
263
00:10:41,637 --> 00:10:45,347
I think I decided probably sometime
in high school that I wanted to be a
264
00:10:45,387 --> 00:10:47,037
college professor, which is really weird.
265
00:10:47,037 --> 00:10:49,567
I didn't think I even knew what a
college professor did, but I wanted to
266
00:10:49,567 --> 00:10:51,817
do, I wanted to always be doing science.
267
00:10:51,837 --> 00:10:54,717
I just, I dabbled in archeology.
268
00:10:54,717 --> 00:10:55,847
I won an archeological dig.
269
00:10:55,847 --> 00:10:57,807
I won a little scholarship,
went down to Campsville,
270
00:10:57,807 --> 00:10:59,327
Illinois and dug up some stuff.
271
00:10:59,327 --> 00:11:00,527
That was freaking cool.
272
00:11:00,527 --> 00:11:02,977
I still love paleoanthropology
and archeology.
273
00:11:02,977 --> 00:11:04,027
I read all about that stuff.
274
00:11:04,187 --> 00:11:05,127
I had a telescope.
275
00:11:05,127 --> 00:11:07,707
I used to look at the stars and the
planets and watch them zip across
276
00:11:07,707 --> 00:11:11,167
the screen cause it was a cheap one
and it didn't turn with the earth.
277
00:11:11,237 --> 00:11:14,017
So I was just science minded
and I settled on meteorology.
278
00:11:14,047 --> 00:11:16,857
I don't know exactly when, but
when I got into college here at
279
00:11:16,857 --> 00:11:21,007
UW Madison, where I currently
work, my third semester, I think?
280
00:11:21,027 --> 00:11:25,657
I took a programming class and boy, that's
where I was like, computers are fun.
281
00:11:25,767 --> 00:11:26,917
Programming is cool.
282
00:11:27,037 --> 00:11:30,207
And then when I discovered that
meteorology has a need for people
283
00:11:30,207 --> 00:11:31,917
who can program, then I was set.
284
00:11:31,917 --> 00:11:32,857
I knew what I wanted to do.
285
00:11:32,857 --> 00:11:35,197
I wanted to use computers to
understand the weather and that's
286
00:11:35,257 --> 00:11:36,257
what I'm still trying to do.
287
00:11:36,402 --> 00:11:40,952
Gabriel: That is certainly a bit of
a strange story in terms of the the
288
00:11:40,952 --> 00:11:42,502
desire to stay out of the field.
289
00:11:42,572 --> 00:11:45,502
You're right; most of the people I talk
to are giddy up, let's get out there
290
00:11:45,502 --> 00:11:47,522
and get in the path of a huge supercell.
291
00:11:47,572 --> 00:11:49,702
But, you chose the opposite direction.
292
00:11:49,762 --> 00:11:49,932
Dr.
293
00:11:49,932 --> 00:11:50,682
Orf: I totally get it.
294
00:11:50,712 --> 00:11:52,492
I just don't need to do it to believe it.
295
00:11:52,552 --> 00:11:54,832
It's almost like a faith thing,
if someone else is there with a
296
00:11:54,832 --> 00:11:58,752
4K camera going at 120 frames per
second, that, I just need to see that.
297
00:11:58,752 --> 00:12:02,122
I don't need to, I don't need to
place myself there in my own mind.
298
00:12:02,577 --> 00:12:05,637
Would I be a better meteorologist
if I did go to the field?
299
00:12:05,647 --> 00:12:06,697
That's actually a good question.
300
00:12:06,747 --> 00:12:09,627
Is there something I'm missing in my own
analysis cause I haven't actually seen
301
00:12:09,627 --> 00:12:14,347
storms, seen the full glory- I have, they
come to me sometimes, so it's not probably
302
00:12:14,367 --> 00:12:15,937
technically true to say I've never chased.
303
00:12:15,937 --> 00:12:19,217
I have gotten in my car and looked around
my house when there's something that comes
304
00:12:19,217 --> 00:12:22,067
by, but I don't take a couple of weeks
off in the spring, that sort of thing.
305
00:12:22,207 --> 00:12:24,671
So yeah that, I've thought about
this a lot, but I think it really
306
00:12:24,671 --> 00:12:26,261
just boils down to the fact that I...
307
00:12:26,261 --> 00:12:27,221
it really did...
308
00:12:27,281 --> 00:12:30,581
those are those memories that sear into
your brain, and it just influenced me in
309
00:12:30,581 --> 00:12:33,671
a way that sort of said, I don't need to
do that, and I'm pretty good at the other
310
00:12:33,671 --> 00:12:36,671
thing, and it seems like there's a plenty
of people who are willing to go out and
311
00:12:36,671 --> 00:12:38,501
chase, so I'll just work on this stuff.
312
00:12:38,621 --> 00:12:40,771
Gabriel: I think we're pretty
fortunate that you chose to do that
313
00:12:40,771 --> 00:12:45,151
because it, you know how there's that
entire idea of chaser convergence
314
00:12:45,151 --> 00:12:48,611
during really easily forecastable
days and really populated areas?
315
00:12:49,111 --> 00:12:49,381
Yeah.
316
00:12:49,481 --> 00:12:53,181
It's almost when it comes to people
who are interested in severe weather,
317
00:12:53,191 --> 00:12:56,731
it does seem like there's a bit of a
hobby convergence where less people are
318
00:12:56,731 --> 00:12:59,911
interested in the side of things that
you are, more people are interested in
319
00:12:59,911 --> 00:13:02,801
going out and chasing and I could see
how that might have the potential to
320
00:13:02,801 --> 00:13:06,021
bottleneck some of the research because
if you don't have enough people in the
321
00:13:06,021 --> 00:13:10,761
labs doing the research on supercomputers
and really pushing the science forward,
322
00:13:10,811 --> 00:13:14,811
then you're not really going to have a
lot to do with the data that's generated
323
00:13:14,811 --> 00:13:17,971
and the photos and videos are generated
by the storm chasers out in the field.
324
00:13:17,971 --> 00:13:18,091
Dr.
325
00:13:18,091 --> 00:13:20,601
Orf: Yeah it's interesting perspective.
326
00:13:20,681 --> 00:13:22,621
I just, it's just something that I like.
327
00:13:22,681 --> 00:13:24,831
I can focus on it and I'm
relatively good at it.
328
00:13:24,851 --> 00:13:26,801
If you're listening to this
podcast and you're wondering what
329
00:13:26,801 --> 00:13:29,361
to do with your life, it helps if
you do something you're good at.
330
00:13:29,621 --> 00:13:30,551
Gabriel: Its true, can confirm.
331
00:13:31,531 --> 00:13:31,671
Dr.
332
00:13:31,671 --> 00:13:34,101
Orf: But just liking it
alone sometimes isn't enough.
333
00:13:34,101 --> 00:13:35,281
You have to be good at it.
334
00:13:35,471 --> 00:13:37,221
I'm just kidding here but
it just comes together.
335
00:13:37,221 --> 00:13:39,701
I can sit here where I'm sitting
now in my basement during this
336
00:13:39,701 --> 00:13:42,211
pandemic, got two 4k monitors going.
337
00:13:42,211 --> 00:13:44,076
I've I got two operating systems.
338
00:13:44,076 --> 00:13:46,806
I got the supercomputer VNC going on here.
339
00:13:46,806 --> 00:13:49,736
I'm watching a simulation actually as we
talk, making sure everything's going well.
340
00:13:49,906 --> 00:13:50,486
See, I can sit here.
341
00:13:50,486 --> 00:13:54,126
It's like my command control center
or whatever, and I'm okay with that.
342
00:13:54,156 --> 00:13:55,036
I'm okay with that.
343
00:13:55,106 --> 00:13:58,586
What I've managed to do, the thing
that sort of, I guess you'd say that
344
00:13:58,696 --> 00:14:02,606
my research did that really hadn't been
done to that extent, is just an amping
345
00:14:02,626 --> 00:14:06,196
up of previous work in the sense that I'm
simulating supercells, other people have
346
00:14:06,196 --> 00:14:09,486
done that, I'm visualizing the data, other
people have done that, but I'm doing it
347
00:14:09,486 --> 00:14:11,626
at a resolution, both in time and space.
348
00:14:11,636 --> 00:14:14,756
So the temporal resolution
thing, I save, I can save data
349
00:14:14,926 --> 00:14:17,366
as fast as someone can film it.
350
00:14:17,366 --> 00:14:20,886
30 frames per second, say, I can
almost get to 30 frames per second of
351
00:14:20,886 --> 00:14:22,826
saving my data, which is ridiculous.
352
00:14:22,856 --> 00:14:23,578
Gabriel: That's insane.
353
00:14:23,578 --> 00:14:23,700
Dr.
354
00:14:23,700 --> 00:14:26,256
Orf: Saving data takes a lot of time
on a supercomputer and I've found
355
00:14:26,256 --> 00:14:27,706
ways to make it take less time.
356
00:14:27,836 --> 00:14:31,646
So my movies are vibrant and
dynamic because you're not jumping
357
00:14:31,646 --> 00:14:34,876
forward in course time intervals
of five seconds or 10 seconds.
358
00:14:35,046 --> 00:14:38,366
You're seeing all of the very rapid
interaction that goes on in the
359
00:14:38,366 --> 00:14:42,216
supercells, including the mergers of
tiny vortices that come together to
360
00:14:42,226 --> 00:14:45,776
consolidate vorticity and things that
lead to the formation of the tornado.
361
00:14:45,776 --> 00:14:48,396
And even while the tornado is going,
there's all sorts of interesting things
362
00:14:48,396 --> 00:14:52,461
going on, and what I've done is I've
basically taken a model that somebody
363
00:14:52,461 --> 00:14:57,351
else wrote, George Brian at NCAR it's an
open source model that is pretty much the
364
00:14:57,351 --> 00:15:01,531
main model used for idealized supercell
research and thunderstorm research - a
365
00:15:01,601 --> 00:15:06,101
very popular model, highly maintained,
pretty easy to read pretty easy to modify
366
00:15:06,251 --> 00:15:10,031
- I've taken that model and I've just said,
okay I, I changed the IO part of it,
367
00:15:10,196 --> 00:15:13,546
the part that does the saves the data,
but I've left everything else the same.
368
00:15:13,686 --> 00:15:16,626
And George has written a very good model
that will scale very well right now.
369
00:15:16,626 --> 00:15:21,016
I've got jobs that that run on a
quarter trillion grid points, which is
370
00:15:21,016 --> 00:15:22,926
pretty big for an atmospheric model.
371
00:15:23,476 --> 00:15:24,856
That's a lot, that's a lot of grid points.
372
00:15:24,886 --> 00:15:29,216
And so essentially I've but the thing is
I can create more data than I can analyze.
373
00:15:29,581 --> 00:15:31,801
So it's almost like
I've got this data glut.
374
00:15:31,801 --> 00:15:34,411
I've got all this wonderful data
on disc and all these simulations.
375
00:15:34,411 --> 00:15:38,851
And now it's enough that to carry my
research until I retire, but I'm, but...
376
00:15:38,881 --> 00:15:39,921
it's a funny problem.
377
00:15:39,971 --> 00:15:43,201
I mentioned this to NSF and some
of these supercomputers create so
378
00:15:43,201 --> 00:15:46,491
much data, but yet we only have
a few years of an allocation.
379
00:15:46,541 --> 00:15:50,691
You have to scale the research
expectations somewhat because of the
380
00:15:50,691 --> 00:15:52,781
fact that it's just so much darn data.
381
00:15:52,781 --> 00:15:54,071
Gabriel: Is that a manpower problem?
382
00:15:54,081 --> 00:15:57,731
If you had enough interested students
that really wanted to help with projects
383
00:15:57,731 --> 00:15:59,141
like this, could that really help you?
384
00:15:59,141 --> 00:15:59,281
Dr.
385
00:15:59,351 --> 00:16:00,351
Orf: That could probably help.
386
00:16:00,361 --> 00:16:03,856
But I want to say before I go any
further on that route, I'm a research
387
00:16:03,856 --> 00:16:06,026
scientist, so I'm not a faculty member.
388
00:16:06,126 --> 00:16:10,956
So I'm soft funded, meaning I get all my
grant money from myself to support myself.
389
00:16:11,066 --> 00:16:14,706
And I've learned over the, I
don't want to build an empire.
390
00:16:14,706 --> 00:16:15,966
I'm just not interested in that.
391
00:16:16,126 --> 00:16:18,286
But I do want to work with
students and I have one student
392
00:16:18,286 --> 00:16:19,006
I'm working with right now.
393
00:16:19,006 --> 00:16:20,416
I've graduated a master's student.
394
00:16:20,546 --> 00:16:23,996
So I am working with students, but
there's no expectation that I must.
395
00:16:24,046 --> 00:16:27,466
But yes, if I had more people
working with me and I have several
396
00:16:27,466 --> 00:16:30,626
collaborators, external collaborators
that are working with me, then yeah,
397
00:16:30,626 --> 00:16:33,816
I could probably I don't know, get
more science published quickly, but
398
00:16:33,916 --> 00:16:36,296
again, I'm not really interested in...
399
00:16:36,586 --> 00:16:38,876
when I say building an empire,
this isn't my first rodeo.
400
00:16:38,876 --> 00:16:41,126
I've already been through the
whole tenure track process.
401
00:16:41,126 --> 00:16:43,826
The research process has been a postdoc,
been a researcher, and I'm a scientist.
402
00:16:43,926 --> 00:16:47,356
I'm liking where I'm at right now,
and I'm liking the the fact that
403
00:16:47,356 --> 00:16:50,646
I don't work 80 hours a week to
support, staying awake at night,
404
00:16:50,646 --> 00:16:52,206
worrying about feeding grad students.
405
00:16:52,256 --> 00:16:53,956
Getting funding's bad enough as it is.
406
00:16:53,956 --> 00:16:57,376
This is, it's so it's just yesterday
I was rejected another NSF grant.
407
00:16:57,376 --> 00:16:57,916
It just happens.
408
00:16:57,966 --> 00:17:01,866
It's very competitive and I don't,
it's one thing to worry about having
409
00:17:01,886 --> 00:17:05,346
to pay myself, but I don't want to have
a bunch of people who are relying on
410
00:17:05,346 --> 00:17:07,746
me to to eat, so I'm keeping it small.
411
00:17:07,746 --> 00:17:10,426
I do have ideas of just giving
the data away to everybody.
412
00:17:10,486 --> 00:17:12,586
And that's something that
I'm happy with as well.
413
00:17:12,696 --> 00:17:15,546
The data that I'm in, I've got the
code to read it and can convert
414
00:17:15,546 --> 00:17:18,326
it to net CDF, which is a very
common data format that people use.
415
00:17:18,486 --> 00:17:19,856
Yeah, so there's a lot of data.
416
00:17:19,926 --> 00:17:22,396
I've got a lot of, right now
what I'm doing with all this
417
00:17:22,396 --> 00:17:24,046
data is I'm writing ensembles.
418
00:17:24,281 --> 00:17:25,361
So you know what ensemble is?
419
00:17:25,371 --> 00:17:28,351
It's when you run a bunch of
simulations of the same event, just
420
00:17:28,351 --> 00:17:30,771
tweaking either the environment
slightly or parameters slightly
421
00:17:30,771 --> 00:17:32,791
to see how stable the solution is.
422
00:17:32,891 --> 00:17:36,871
So I can take my storm, the 24
May, 2011 storm and tweak some
423
00:17:36,871 --> 00:17:38,441
knobs and rerun the simulation.
424
00:17:38,441 --> 00:17:41,451
And maybe the tornado forms,
20 minutes later, or it doesn't
425
00:17:41,451 --> 00:17:42,591
form at all or something.
426
00:17:42,591 --> 00:17:45,801
And you, and it probably wouldn't
surprise you to know that sometimes the
427
00:17:45,811 --> 00:17:49,746
tornadoes that I show you there are other
simulations I've done where the tornado
428
00:17:49,746 --> 00:17:53,016
doesn't form, and I'm more interested
now in looking at the full spectrum of
429
00:17:53,026 --> 00:17:56,426
results and comparing them and trying
to figure out what goes on in the storms
430
00:17:56,426 --> 00:18:00,426
that produce a big long track EF5 and what
goes on in the storms that don't, so that
431
00:18:00,426 --> 00:18:04,816
perhaps someday we can use these identify
these features and hopefully be able to
432
00:18:04,816 --> 00:18:09,016
identify them on radar so that hopefully,
again, I say hopefully at some point in
433
00:18:09,016 --> 00:18:13,486
time, maybe the work I'm doing will help
issue more accurate warnings, tornado
434
00:18:13,486 --> 00:18:17,916
warnings, maybe the area over which the
tornado warning is issued is smaller
435
00:18:17,916 --> 00:18:19,686
because we're better at getting that.
436
00:18:19,826 --> 00:18:23,666
Maybe the work that I'm doing will someday
make our forecasts better and maybe not as
437
00:18:23,666 --> 00:18:28,376
many false alarms because that's another
big problem we have in forecasting is
438
00:18:28,376 --> 00:18:32,826
that, about two out of three or three
out of four tornado warnings are false
439
00:18:32,826 --> 00:18:34,236
alarms, meaning there's no tornado.
440
00:18:34,236 --> 00:18:38,206
So the public gets the cry wolf syndrome
thing where they stop listening to
441
00:18:38,206 --> 00:18:41,551
the alerts and then maybe when the big
one comes, they're not as prepared.
442
00:18:41,601 --> 00:18:44,541
So that's another reason why I do this
work is because I do really do feel like
443
00:18:44,541 --> 00:18:46,641
it has the potential to make a difference.
444
00:18:46,691 --> 00:18:48,501
And again, it's still
in the research phase.
445
00:18:48,501 --> 00:18:50,691
I've got a NOAA proposal that
I'm really excited about.
446
00:18:50,821 --> 00:18:54,201
I want to simulate a thousand
thunderstorms all sorts of cases
447
00:18:54,201 --> 00:18:56,061
that that are provided by the center.
448
00:18:56,121 --> 00:18:58,641
So there's, they have like a
sounding archive, including,
449
00:18:58,691 --> 00:19:01,271
okay, here's a sounding, here's a
hodograph, here's what happened.
450
00:19:01,546 --> 00:19:04,416
I'm going to take that data, try to run
a simulation and see what happens, do
451
00:19:04,416 --> 00:19:07,996
an ensemble, see if maybe there's a way
to use these simulations to make better
452
00:19:07,996 --> 00:19:10,276
forecasts, so yeah that's where I'm at.
453
00:19:10,366 --> 00:19:12,666
I'm always put, I'm always
trying to push the limit of the
454
00:19:12,666 --> 00:19:13,956
latest supercomputing hardware.
455
00:19:13,956 --> 00:19:17,056
So I spend as much time
writing machine allocation
456
00:19:17,056 --> 00:19:18,936
proposals as I do NSF proposals.
457
00:19:18,946 --> 00:19:21,896
Maybe not as much, but that's
like a huge important part.
458
00:19:21,896 --> 00:19:24,596
If I don't have access to the
machine, my research program is shot.
459
00:19:25,126 --> 00:19:27,076
So I've always got to
be chasing the hardware.
460
00:19:27,236 --> 00:19:28,436
It's just the nature of the beast.
461
00:19:28,536 --> 00:19:31,346
But anyway, supercomputers are
great because because not just
462
00:19:31,426 --> 00:19:33,706
atmospheric scientists can
use it, everybody can use it.
463
00:19:33,706 --> 00:19:37,006
So I'm always competing on the
machine for, with astrophysicists
464
00:19:37,026 --> 00:19:41,016
and geologists doing earthquake
modeling and chemists doing molecule
465
00:19:41,016 --> 00:19:42,256
modeling and all this stuff.
466
00:19:42,356 --> 00:19:43,056
But it's great.
467
00:19:43,066 --> 00:19:45,496
It's a great to have that, that
really good shared resource.
468
00:19:45,636 --> 00:19:46,786
Gabriel: Yeah, absolutely.
469
00:19:46,801 --> 00:19:50,251
And I think this would be as good a time
as any to start digging into some of
470
00:19:50,251 --> 00:19:53,411
the questions that I have for you, or
rather things that I'd like you to maybe
471
00:19:53,551 --> 00:19:55,731
expound upon in relation to the research.
472
00:19:55,781 --> 00:19:59,951
Let's just, let's dive right into what I
feel like is the no pun intended, primary
473
00:19:59,951 --> 00:20:04,531
current of a lot of your research, and
that is the streamwise vorticity current.
474
00:20:04,611 --> 00:20:08,671
Could you just share with folks who maybe
are not familiar with exactly what that
475
00:20:08,671 --> 00:20:11,711
means, or at least in the context of the
way that you place it into the storm?
476
00:20:11,711 --> 00:20:11,831
Dr.
477
00:20:11,831 --> 00:20:12,741
Orf: Yeah, sure.
478
00:20:12,841 --> 00:20:17,431
So I was, before I answer that question, I
was at a talk it was a severe weather talk
479
00:20:17,451 --> 00:20:19,111
a couple of years ago in the before times.
480
00:20:19,111 --> 00:20:22,841
And one of the faculty in the OS
department who's not a severe weather
481
00:20:22,841 --> 00:20:26,631
guy said, there is no other branch,
there's no other subfield in meteorology
482
00:20:26,631 --> 00:20:28,691
that has more jargon than supercells.
483
00:20:28,711 --> 00:20:32,161
In other words, you got your RFD, you
got your FFD, you got your SVC, you
484
00:20:32,161 --> 00:20:35,791
got your LFCB, there's all of these
different things and it's because of-
485
00:20:35,791 --> 00:20:36,311
Gabriel: That's alphabet soup.
486
00:20:36,361 --> 00:20:36,481
Dr.
487
00:20:36,481 --> 00:20:36,821
Orf: It is.
488
00:20:36,821 --> 00:20:39,471
And it's because there's the
conceptual model of what a
489
00:20:39,471 --> 00:20:42,321
supercell is, what discriminates
it from an ordinary thunderstorm.
490
00:20:42,431 --> 00:20:44,131
And we've come up with
these conceptual models.
491
00:20:44,141 --> 00:20:48,411
So the SVC I would say I'm not ready
to put it within the conceptual model
492
00:20:48,421 --> 00:20:51,666
framework yet, but it's a feature
that shows up at high resolution
493
00:20:51,686 --> 00:20:53,176
and not even super high resolution.
494
00:20:53,176 --> 00:20:56,196
There's been work on this, and I want to
say I'm not going to bury the lead here.
495
00:20:56,196 --> 00:20:59,246
The SVC is real because it's been
detected in the field and that is
496
00:20:59,246 --> 00:21:01,876
super, super exciting for me, but
let me now explain what it is.
497
00:21:02,026 --> 00:21:05,906
So when I was getting ready for the
talk that I gave in November, 2014,
498
00:21:05,926 --> 00:21:07,106
right here in Madison, which was cool.
499
00:21:07,106 --> 00:21:08,166
I was in Michigan at the time.
500
00:21:08,326 --> 00:21:10,906
I'm trying to make my
movies to show the storm.
501
00:21:10,916 --> 00:21:15,016
And when I look at the vorticity field,
so the vorticity field is just spin.
502
00:21:15,066 --> 00:21:16,596
You can think of it as spinning shear.
503
00:21:16,731 --> 00:21:19,251
When I just look at the three
dimensional vorticity field along
504
00:21:19,251 --> 00:21:21,191
the forward flank of the storm.
505
00:21:21,191 --> 00:21:24,641
So if you're looking at a supercell plan
view of a supercell, it's towards the
506
00:21:24,641 --> 00:21:29,331
right and near where the air that is
cooled within the cold pool, the supercell
507
00:21:29,341 --> 00:21:32,921
sort of meets the environmental air,
the ambient air in front of the storm.
508
00:21:33,091 --> 00:21:38,351
I was seeing this feature that it was
like picture like a a paper towel tube
509
00:21:38,431 --> 00:21:39,991
on its side sitting on the counter.
510
00:21:40,051 --> 00:21:42,051
So it's a horizontally oriented feature.
511
00:21:42,221 --> 00:21:42,541
Okay.
512
00:21:42,541 --> 00:21:46,271
So it starts out on near the ground
and the air is rotating as if you
513
00:21:46,271 --> 00:21:49,441
were taking that paper towel tube and
just rotating it, pushing it forward
514
00:21:49,591 --> 00:21:50,791
and rotating it with your hand.
515
00:21:50,791 --> 00:21:55,261
Again, theater of the mind here,
that tube of air, I call it a tube
516
00:21:55,271 --> 00:21:59,011
of air that's rotating on its side
is rotating primarily helically.
517
00:21:59,011 --> 00:22:02,861
Meaning what this means in atmospheric
science, it means that the velocity
518
00:22:02,861 --> 00:22:06,131
vector is pointing in the same
direction as the vorticity vector.
519
00:22:06,231 --> 00:22:10,286
So if you push your hand away from
you while rotating a clockwise, That's
520
00:22:10,286 --> 00:22:12,656
the kind of flow that the SVC shows.
521
00:22:12,696 --> 00:22:14,356
Gabriel: Now is that
almost like a football?
522
00:22:14,416 --> 00:22:15,756
Like a football being
thrown with a spiral?
523
00:22:15,756 --> 00:22:15,809
Dr.
524
00:22:15,809 --> 00:22:19,066
Orf: Yes, it's a good example
of streamlined vorticity.
525
00:22:19,106 --> 00:22:22,696
So if you think of someone throwing a
perfect spiral the, this the direction
526
00:22:22,706 --> 00:22:26,786
or the velocity of the football and
the rotation of the football, the axis
527
00:22:26,786 --> 00:22:28,296
of rotation are in the same direction.
528
00:22:28,476 --> 00:22:31,286
So you have this thing that's say,
take that football and sort of squish
529
00:22:31,286 --> 00:22:36,226
it down and spread it out like taffy
that gets ingested by the updraft.
530
00:22:36,226 --> 00:22:37,386
And here's the cool thing.
531
00:22:37,576 --> 00:22:39,606
So it takes a really abrupt upward turn.
532
00:22:39,606 --> 00:22:42,926
So you have something that's basically
rotating horizontally, and then
533
00:22:42,926 --> 00:22:47,716
it's tilted vertically where it gets
amplified by stretching, which is when
534
00:22:47,716 --> 00:22:50,826
you have, it's a term in the vorticity
equation, but where it really means
535
00:22:50,846 --> 00:22:54,541
is it has to do with the conservation
of angular momentum argument of
536
00:22:54,541 --> 00:22:57,811
tugging on something and watching
it spin faster as it's drawn inward.
537
00:22:57,941 --> 00:22:59,101
So there's, it's like that.
538
00:22:59,131 --> 00:23:03,641
There's an amplification mechanism that
goes on as this air is accelerated, and
539
00:23:03,721 --> 00:23:06,381
that does things to the pressure field.
540
00:23:06,586 --> 00:23:09,426
Now tornadoes are regions of
very intense, low pressure.
541
00:23:09,436 --> 00:23:13,256
The stronger the storm, basically the
stronger the tornado, the lower the
542
00:23:13,256 --> 00:23:15,556
pressure is in the center of a tornado.
543
00:23:15,656 --> 00:23:19,376
This SVC itself is associated with
low pressure and it really drops the
544
00:23:19,376 --> 00:23:23,076
pressure as it gets tilted upward
and sucked into the mesocyclone.
545
00:23:23,186 --> 00:23:26,716
And so there's this, so this
feature, this thing I've seen it
546
00:23:26,716 --> 00:23:28,706
precedes the formation of a tornado.
547
00:23:28,931 --> 00:23:30,771
It's there during the tornado's life.
548
00:23:30,781 --> 00:23:32,171
Sometimes it comes and goes.
549
00:23:32,171 --> 00:23:37,131
It's not something that I necessarily
think is required for tornado formation.
550
00:23:37,131 --> 00:23:38,621
I'm not going to oversell this thing.
551
00:23:38,621 --> 00:23:38,981
All right.
552
00:23:39,071 --> 00:23:41,021
It's something that is interesting.
553
00:23:41,051 --> 00:23:45,071
And it's when I, as I get to higher
and higher resolution, it starts
554
00:23:45,071 --> 00:23:47,531
to get a little more turbulent
and less smooth and laminar.
555
00:23:47,751 --> 00:23:49,591
So I'm wondering what does it
really look like in the field?
556
00:23:49,641 --> 00:23:52,541
Two papers have just come out or
one's probably still on its way
557
00:23:52,541 --> 00:23:57,031
out, I've reviewed both of them, on
the SVC being seen in radar data.
558
00:23:57,031 --> 00:24:00,921
And this is for someone like me
who's more on the modeling side, who
559
00:24:00,921 --> 00:24:05,061
discovered something in a simulation
five years ago to find that it actually
560
00:24:05,061 --> 00:24:08,971
exists in reality is probably the
most gratifying thing in my career.
561
00:24:08,971 --> 00:24:09,301
Gabriel: Yeah.
562
00:24:09,301 --> 00:24:10,401
That's so freaking cool.
563
00:24:10,401 --> 00:24:10,521
Dr.
564
00:24:10,521 --> 00:24:10,811
Orf: Yeah.
565
00:24:10,836 --> 00:24:13,046
It's something that was found in a
model and then found in the atmosphere.
566
00:24:13,056 --> 00:24:14,156
Sometimes it goes both ways.
567
00:24:14,166 --> 00:24:17,276
Sometimes you see something in the
atmosphere and then the models eventually
568
00:24:17,276 --> 00:24:19,486
see it as they figure out how to model it.
569
00:24:19,536 --> 00:24:23,056
If it's missing in one or the other than
one of the- the atmosphere is never wrong.
570
00:24:23,116 --> 00:24:23,476
Okay.
571
00:24:23,546 --> 00:24:24,286
Let's get that down.
572
00:24:24,326 --> 00:24:25,966
The atmosphere is never wrong.
573
00:24:26,136 --> 00:24:29,196
All the models are wrong, but
they're wrong at different amounts.
574
00:24:29,586 --> 00:24:33,771
Gabriel: It reminds me of, I do a lot
of trading in markets, and it just
575
00:24:33,771 --> 00:24:37,201
reminds me of the age old adage of
"the market is never wrong either."
576
00:24:37,241 --> 00:24:40,281
People like to say the price should
go up, the price should go down,
577
00:24:40,291 --> 00:24:44,291
it's no, the price is always correct,
it's you that had the misconception.
578
00:24:44,401 --> 00:24:44,561
Dr.
579
00:24:44,561 --> 00:24:47,746
Orf: Here I thought it was
just all diamond hands and
580
00:24:47,866 --> 00:24:48,956
apes together and all that.
581
00:24:49,206 --> 00:24:52,816
Sorry, inside somebody would hear that in
20 years and go, what is he talking about?
582
00:24:52,896 --> 00:24:54,106
Gabriel: Yeah, some Wall Street bets.
583
00:24:54,106 --> 00:24:54,456
Some memeology.
584
00:24:54,706 --> 00:24:55,346
I like it.
585
00:24:55,346 --> 00:24:55,476
Dr.
586
00:24:55,476 --> 00:24:55,896
Orf: Yeah.
587
00:24:56,516 --> 00:25:02,326
And that's the thing from the work that
I do is really only useful to society
588
00:25:02,326 --> 00:25:04,186
if it helps to make better forecasts.
589
00:25:04,206 --> 00:25:07,196
And that's again, I always have that
in my mind, but I'm not a forecaster.
590
00:25:07,196 --> 00:25:07,956
I didn't try to be one.
591
00:25:07,956 --> 00:25:10,766
I just hope that my work can be
useful to the forecasting community.
592
00:25:10,906 --> 00:25:12,076
And I think we're getting there.
593
00:25:12,116 --> 00:25:12,886
I hope so.
594
00:25:12,976 --> 00:25:16,886
I'm starting to see people like again,
finding in the field is the biggest thing.
595
00:25:16,936 --> 00:25:18,297
And that's just been great.
596
00:25:18,297 --> 00:25:18,717
Gabriel: Yeah.
597
00:25:18,717 --> 00:25:22,017
So I think that you're definitely
making strides in the right direction.
598
00:25:22,017 --> 00:25:25,097
What more confirmation could you
ask for than to have something show
599
00:25:25,097 --> 00:25:28,407
up in these high resolution models,
then have it start to be actually
600
00:25:28,407 --> 00:25:30,497
observed in the radar data afterwards?
601
00:25:30,497 --> 00:25:33,837
To me, that's, that would be probably
the strongest confirmation you could
602
00:25:33,837 --> 00:25:37,307
get that, even if you don't have it
exactly right at this moment, you're
603
00:25:37,317 --> 00:25:40,647
definitely sniffing up the right tree and
you have to continue in that direction.
604
00:25:40,647 --> 00:25:40,767
Dr.
605
00:25:40,767 --> 00:25:41,587
Orf: Exactly.
606
00:25:41,617 --> 00:25:43,447
And that's how I've always
approached this problem.
607
00:25:43,487 --> 00:25:47,677
I've always known, before I had the
big tornado simulation, the previous
608
00:25:47,677 --> 00:25:50,507
work, and people had done previous
work, Ming Xue at the University of
609
00:25:50,507 --> 00:25:52,247
Oklahoma always should get credit.
610
00:25:52,327 --> 00:25:55,327
He commandeered the Pittsburgh
supercomputer for a week or something.
611
00:25:55,327 --> 00:25:58,607
And he ran the old Dell city
sounding and he got a tornado to
612
00:25:58,607 --> 00:25:59,867
form, but it was in a weird way.
613
00:25:59,867 --> 00:26:00,917
So he never really published it.
614
00:26:00,917 --> 00:26:04,147
But he, I remember at the conference, when
he first showed this, I'm like, holy crap.
615
00:26:04,232 --> 00:26:04,882
That's amazing.
616
00:26:05,052 --> 00:26:08,402
I've always known that once the
computing technology caught up, it
617
00:26:08,402 --> 00:26:12,512
was just a matter of mapping the model
to the computer in an efficient way.
618
00:26:12,672 --> 00:26:16,422
And I knew from 10 years ago, when I
started really working on this problem,
619
00:26:16,422 --> 00:26:20,202
when I was on my sabbatical at NCAR, I
was like, I always the going to kill us,
620
00:26:20,272 --> 00:26:23,592
I always the big bottleneck that needs
to be dealt with before you deal with
621
00:26:23,612 --> 00:26:25,202
any other bottlenecks in your model.
622
00:26:25,262 --> 00:26:28,692
So the model itself can integrate
and have all its data, but it's
623
00:26:28,702 --> 00:26:30,452
in the memory core of the machine.
624
00:26:30,532 --> 00:26:33,192
For it to be useful to you and me,
it needs to be saved to disk so
625
00:26:33,192 --> 00:26:35,612
we can look at it and make movies
and do all the other fun stuff.
626
00:26:35,742 --> 00:26:39,702
And if you only save data every 20,
10 minutes or something, and because
627
00:26:39,702 --> 00:26:43,112
it takes half, an hour to save one
data point in your supercomputer,
628
00:26:43,132 --> 00:26:45,592
then you're never going to really see
what's going on in the simulation.
629
00:26:45,812 --> 00:26:49,452
So I came up with a scheme to save
data very efficiently that takes
630
00:26:49,452 --> 00:26:52,312
that up, basically makes that
problem go away, almost go away.
631
00:26:52,312 --> 00:26:54,942
It's still, you still pay a
price, but it's much, I can
632
00:26:54,942 --> 00:26:56,452
save every model time step.
633
00:26:56,452 --> 00:26:59,162
I've done this several times
where I save every model time.
634
00:26:59,162 --> 00:27:00,362
So you can't save any more data.
635
00:27:00,362 --> 00:27:02,502
There simply isn't any more data to save.
636
00:27:02,657 --> 00:27:05,867
And then I can go and then I
can go analyze that data, send
637
00:27:05,867 --> 00:27:09,377
trajectories through it, visualize
it, analyze, do budget analysis.
638
00:27:09,377 --> 00:27:10,857
That's where I'm going with all this.
639
00:27:10,937 --> 00:27:14,677
There's a well established analysis
process in our field for these storms,
640
00:27:14,767 --> 00:27:15,857
and I'm going to be doing that.
641
00:27:16,007 --> 00:27:20,757
I'm also though, looking at novel ways to
analyze storms that are new to the field.
642
00:27:20,817 --> 00:27:24,197
And that's another proposal that's
in review right now, but there's a
643
00:27:24,197 --> 00:27:27,437
researcher at the University of
California, San Diego that I'm working
644
00:27:27,437 --> 00:27:30,847
with who's a physicist, and he's
developed a system called Entropy
645
00:27:30,847 --> 00:27:36,677
Field Decomposition, which is a uses
Bayesian Bayes Theorem, and information-
646
00:27:36,677 --> 00:27:38,117
Gabriel: I'm a big Bayes fan, yep.
647
00:27:38,117 --> 00:27:38,257
Dr.
648
00:27:38,257 --> 00:27:40,777
Orf: Yeah, oh, alright, you should
be if you do gambling, yeah.
649
00:27:40,897 --> 00:27:44,787
There's, it uses Bayes Theorem in a
very cool way to strip - basically,
650
00:27:44,977 --> 00:27:48,447
it's hard to really explain, but it's
a way that may help us tease out those
651
00:27:48,477 --> 00:27:50,107
patterns that we're trying to find.
652
00:27:50,177 --> 00:27:51,077
It's agnostic.
653
00:27:51,077 --> 00:27:52,627
It doesn't really understand supercells.
654
00:27:52,767 --> 00:27:54,387
It can be used on MRI imagery.
655
00:27:54,387 --> 00:27:55,927
It can be used on thunderstorms.
656
00:27:55,927 --> 00:27:59,657
It can be used on trying
to map the 5G pattern of of
657
00:27:59,657 --> 00:28:01,717
signal loss due to reflection.
658
00:28:01,717 --> 00:28:03,677
I've seen EFT used in
these different ways.
659
00:28:03,837 --> 00:28:08,107
So again, I'm trying to use computational
technology to crack the nut of tornadoes.
660
00:28:08,297 --> 00:28:12,147
We're always trying to find the magical
tornado trigger, and I absolutely hate
661
00:28:12,147 --> 00:28:15,067
the term tornado trigger, by the way,
cause I don't think it's really accurate.
662
00:28:15,077 --> 00:28:18,817
I don't one of the things my research
has suggested is that some of our
663
00:28:18,827 --> 00:28:22,847
preconceived ideas of how tornadoes
form are probably not universally right.
664
00:28:22,937 --> 00:28:25,697
They're probably right sometimes,
but you don't need an RFD-
665
00:28:25,697 --> 00:28:28,077
Gabriel: That's one of the areas I
wanted to get into with you in a few
666
00:28:28,077 --> 00:28:31,567
minutes, 'cause it seems like your
research has the ability to, we'll
667
00:28:31,567 --> 00:28:36,652
just say disrupt a lot of what's
considered to be the foundational wisdom.
668
00:28:36,652 --> 00:28:36,862
Dr.
669
00:28:36,862 --> 00:28:37,392
Orf: Yes.
670
00:28:37,402 --> 00:28:39,332
I would say that's probably
an accurate statement.
671
00:28:40,162 --> 00:28:40,442
Yes.
672
00:28:40,442 --> 00:28:45,352
Gabriel: So so yeah before we get into
to that particular aspect though I want
673
00:28:45,352 --> 00:28:49,002
to focus in on one of the details that
you were talking about a few moments ago
674
00:28:49,002 --> 00:28:52,082
that honestly, I found to be one of the
most fascinating things in your research.
675
00:28:52,082 --> 00:28:56,812
So as I was watching your models pull
this streamwise vorticity and ingest
676
00:28:56,812 --> 00:29:02,657
it into the mesocyclone, I'm seeing
all these small singular vortices start
677
00:29:02,667 --> 00:29:07,197
to, I think the word that you use is
pile up in the same location and then
678
00:29:07,197 --> 00:29:11,527
they begin wrapping around each other,
which is just absolutely beautiful to
679
00:29:11,527 --> 00:29:13,847
watch from a aesthetic perspective.
680
00:29:14,477 --> 00:29:18,382
But also from actually thinking in terms
of the way that these tornadoes form,
681
00:29:18,542 --> 00:29:23,002
it does look similar to some of these
videos you see where you see especially
682
00:29:23,002 --> 00:29:26,982
during the formation of a lot of these
tornadoes, little spin ups start to hit
683
00:29:26,982 --> 00:29:31,422
the ground at different places and they're
not necessarily reflective of where the
684
00:29:31,422 --> 00:29:33,412
final tornado finds its positioning.
685
00:29:33,412 --> 00:29:33,542
Dr.
686
00:29:33,542 --> 00:29:33,822
Orf: Yes.
687
00:29:33,822 --> 00:29:37,822
Gabriel: And your modeling showing these
little vortices starting to pile up
688
00:29:37,822 --> 00:29:40,732
and one will show up and another, and
then eventually they wrap around each
689
00:29:40,732 --> 00:29:44,727
other and form this larger tube that
gets stretched and becomes more intense.
690
00:29:44,737 --> 00:29:47,716
I think that is probably one
of the more exciting things
691
00:29:47,726 --> 00:29:48,846
that I've seen in your work.
692
00:29:48,846 --> 00:29:48,966
Dr.
693
00:29:48,966 --> 00:29:50,016
Orf: Yeah, thanks.
694
00:29:50,186 --> 00:29:50,806
And I agree.
695
00:29:50,806 --> 00:29:54,996
And when I'm watching tornado videos
there's a couple that you see that same
696
00:29:54,996 --> 00:29:59,236
thing where you, of course, when you're
limited with just your eyes in the
697
00:29:59,236 --> 00:30:02,996
sense that a lot of the things, the air
movement, you can't necessarily see it.
698
00:30:03,006 --> 00:30:06,196
The only way you can see the
air is if there's a condensation
699
00:30:06,196 --> 00:30:10,246
funnel or there's perhaps dust or
something that gives you a tracer.
700
00:30:11,261 --> 00:30:13,721
There's so much going on that
we can't see with our eyes.
701
00:30:13,721 --> 00:30:19,111
Another reason but on the other hand, I
do have a lot of excitement about using
702
00:30:19,111 --> 00:30:24,201
photogrammetry, high resolution video
cameras up the wazoo, just looking at
703
00:30:24,201 --> 00:30:28,286
storms, like what Fujita did, Wakimoto's
done, it's gone away a little bit
704
00:30:28,286 --> 00:30:31,016
and it's coming back with some of the
work that say, I would say even Hank
705
00:30:31,076 --> 00:30:32,636
deserves a seat at the table for this.
706
00:30:32,636 --> 00:30:35,936
He's done some scientific work
with Anton Simon and some other
707
00:30:35,936 --> 00:30:37,356
researchers who go out in the field.
708
00:30:37,356 --> 00:30:38,724
Gabriel: Yes, Skip Talbot was out
there with him this last year.
709
00:30:38,724 --> 00:30:38,837
Dr.
710
00:30:38,837 --> 00:30:39,176
Orf: Skip Talbot.
711
00:30:39,176 --> 00:30:40,286
I know all these guys.
712
00:30:40,286 --> 00:30:43,016
I don't know him too personally,
but I know I, I'm a big fan of
713
00:30:43,016 --> 00:30:44,156
their work and what they're doing.
714
00:30:44,306 --> 00:30:47,726
So yes, what I call the "Parade of
Vortices", I've given it different names
715
00:30:47,726 --> 00:30:52,416
or my former grad student called it a
miso vortex train, along that forward
716
00:30:52,416 --> 00:30:56,367
flank, there's a storm relative motion
where these vortices are coming from the
717
00:30:56,367 --> 00:31:00,507
forward part of the storm and edging their
way towards where the main updraft is.
718
00:31:00,647 --> 00:31:03,977
And what happens, these vortices
sometimes just pass on by and head
719
00:31:03,977 --> 00:31:07,267
towards the rear flank in the 24
May simulation I'm talking about.
720
00:31:07,417 --> 00:31:13,057
And then what happens in my estimation is
as the SVC is ingested and the mesocyclone
721
00:31:13,067 --> 00:31:16,387
gets tight, stronger and stronger,
the pressure drop in the mesocyclone
722
00:31:16,387 --> 00:31:20,212
is getting more intense, instead of
thinking of a surge, pushing those things
723
00:31:20,212 --> 00:31:24,262
back, they're being pulled back by a
very strong pressure gradient force.
724
00:31:24,372 --> 00:31:27,822
So rather than ascribing
the genesis of this, of the
725
00:31:27,832 --> 00:31:30,642
tornado to a push, it's a pull.
726
00:31:30,672 --> 00:31:33,182
A push from the rear flank or
a pull from the forward flank.
727
00:31:33,202 --> 00:31:35,656
You can think of it as two
sort of similar things.
728
00:31:35,807 --> 00:31:38,177
But it's not a trigger,
there's, and again, I have,
729
00:31:38,227 --> 00:31:40,337
I'm dying to write this paper.
730
00:31:40,407 --> 00:31:41,267
I really am.
731
00:31:41,267 --> 00:31:45,607
I have the 10 meter simulation
that I showed at AMS, not this past
732
00:31:45,607 --> 00:31:47,227
AMS, but the one before in person.
733
00:31:47,417 --> 00:31:50,317
It's a 10 meter simulation, I've saved
the data every one fifth of a second.
734
00:31:50,522 --> 00:31:54,932
I've written some code that actually
goes back to the absolute genesis point
735
00:31:54,932 --> 00:31:58,312
of the vortex that becomes a tornado,
follows it up into the storm, and I
736
00:31:58,312 --> 00:32:00,192
can follow its progression over time.
737
00:32:00,192 --> 00:32:02,792
And I'm excited about looking
at this whole process from the
738
00:32:02,792 --> 00:32:04,362
perspective of the vortex itself.
739
00:32:04,412 --> 00:32:07,022
What is happening to the
vortex as it becomes a tornado?
740
00:32:07,162 --> 00:32:10,752
Because the vortex, there's a vortex
in place before there's a tornado.
741
00:32:10,872 --> 00:32:13,442
At some point it becomes a
tornado when the winds are
742
00:32:13,442 --> 00:32:15,362
strong enough to dictate that.
743
00:32:15,362 --> 00:32:17,782
And then you'll get the definition
in the EMS what a tornado is.
744
00:32:17,922 --> 00:32:21,642
But there's, tornadoes, at least
in my experience, I'm not saying I
745
00:32:21,642 --> 00:32:24,502
understand all this stuff, but there's
usually something spinning before
746
00:32:24,502 --> 00:32:27,572
it's a tornado, before it reaches
that threshold where it becomes a
747
00:32:27,572 --> 00:32:29,712
tornado, which is tornado genesis.
748
00:32:29,862 --> 00:32:32,662
Gabriel: You see that in a lot of the
video when like over dust fields are
749
00:32:32,662 --> 00:32:33,902
areas where there's a lot of debris.
750
00:32:33,952 --> 00:32:35,992
You see that stuff just start
to spin up, but there's really
751
00:32:35,992 --> 00:32:37,502
no clearly defined tornado yet.
752
00:32:37,542 --> 00:32:37,609
Dr.
753
00:32:37,609 --> 00:32:40,262
Orf: And that you're seeing the
process of it forming right there.
754
00:32:40,262 --> 00:32:43,582
And then one thing, I want to give away
too much, there's definitely a link
755
00:32:43,582 --> 00:32:46,582
between what's going on in the ground
and what's going on higher in the storm.
756
00:32:46,582 --> 00:32:49,342
And that's what I'm mostly interested
in because there's this question
757
00:32:49,342 --> 00:32:52,482
that comes out every so often,
Jana Houser at Ohio University is
758
00:32:52,482 --> 00:32:55,742
interested in this, do tornadoes
form from the bottom up or top down?
759
00:32:55,742 --> 00:32:57,752
And I know you talked about
that with Hank as well.
760
00:32:57,812 --> 00:32:59,592
Gabriel: Yeah, I try to talk about
it with everyone because it is
761
00:32:59,592 --> 00:33:00,062
a source of extreme controversy.
762
00:33:00,062 --> 00:33:00,342
Dr.
763
00:33:00,342 --> 00:33:00,842
Orf: Sure.
764
00:33:00,842 --> 00:33:05,092
And I would say that- yeah I
would ask you back, what is
765
00:33:05,092 --> 00:33:06,757
going up and what is going down?
766
00:33:06,837 --> 00:33:08,137
Before I answer that question.
767
00:33:09,337 --> 00:33:12,597
Hey everyone, Kay here from Rough
Skies Ahead and Chaser Chat.
768
00:33:12,717 --> 00:33:16,737
I wanted to give a quick shout out
to the new Chaser Chat YouTube page,
769
00:33:16,737 --> 00:33:20,567
where you can find all your favorite
episodes uploaded in video form with
770
00:33:20,577 --> 00:33:22,637
a transcription to follow along with.
771
00:33:22,687 --> 00:33:24,337
The link is in the podcast description.
772
00:33:24,397 --> 00:33:27,537
Gabriel: You're probably wearing
clothes right now, and I know
773
00:33:27,537 --> 00:33:29,237
you like listening to podcasts.
774
00:33:29,347 --> 00:33:31,647
Why not combine the two
and support the show?
775
00:33:31,717 --> 00:33:33,097
Head over to chaserchat.
776
00:33:33,127 --> 00:33:37,117
com or click the link in the podcast
description, and you'll find all sorts
777
00:33:37,117 --> 00:33:42,187
of items like t-shirts, hoodies, beanies,
ball caps, coffee mugs, and more.
778
00:33:42,277 --> 00:33:45,567
And if none of that sounds good,
at least buy a freaking sticker.
779
00:33:45,647 --> 00:33:46,937
It's only three bucks.
780
00:33:46,947 --> 00:33:51,257
Visit the merch store today and support
the podcast by going to chaserchat.
781
00:33:51,277 --> 00:33:53,947
com or clicking the link
in the podcast description.
782
00:33:55,237 --> 00:33:55,887
Gabriel: I like it.
783
00:33:55,887 --> 00:33:56,007
Dr.
784
00:33:56,007 --> 00:33:58,237
Orf: Because are you
talking about momentum?
785
00:33:58,307 --> 00:34:00,657
Are you talking about a
visual condensation funnel?
786
00:34:00,657 --> 00:34:01,417
Of course you're not.
787
00:34:01,507 --> 00:34:02,867
Are you talking about vorticity?
788
00:34:02,877 --> 00:34:04,657
What is going up and what is going down?
789
00:34:04,667 --> 00:34:09,357
What is you know, because I'll tell you
what, from what I see, the analogy is like
790
00:34:09,357 --> 00:34:11,187
the dart leader for a lightning strike.
791
00:34:11,507 --> 00:34:12,437
This is just an analogy.
792
00:34:12,477 --> 00:34:14,057
OK, don't think I'm trying.
793
00:34:14,097 --> 00:34:15,417
This is an analogy.
794
00:34:15,507 --> 00:34:16,627
So you think of a dart leader.
795
00:34:16,627 --> 00:34:19,387
You see these two little
flickery things and then crack.
796
00:34:19,387 --> 00:34:20,707
Oh, there is your lightning bolt.
797
00:34:21,537 --> 00:34:24,337
The dart leader part is the
part I'm focusing on, alright.
798
00:34:24,357 --> 00:34:27,507
There's this stuff that goes on
before the tornado really gets going.
799
00:34:27,677 --> 00:34:29,007
That's the Genesis part.
800
00:34:29,037 --> 00:34:31,977
And it's like fascinating, from what
I've seen, so I'm working on this
801
00:34:31,977 --> 00:34:33,517
right now in the 10 meter simulation.
802
00:34:33,637 --> 00:34:35,327
I've got most of the code figured out.
803
00:34:35,367 --> 00:34:37,197
I just need to do the
analysis and write it up.
804
00:34:37,447 --> 00:34:40,797
But there's definitely, at least for
this, again, I want to be clear here.
805
00:34:40,797 --> 00:34:44,487
I'm not trying to say I'm solving all
tornadoes because I'm focusing mostly on
806
00:34:44,527 --> 00:34:46,777
a specific event that's a top end event.
807
00:34:46,897 --> 00:34:48,967
But you gotta start somewhere,
you gotta start somewhere.
808
00:34:48,967 --> 00:34:52,867
I am in the process of running dozens to
a hundreds of different environments if I
809
00:34:52,927 --> 00:34:57,047
can get the funding and the machine time
and all that to try to just look at this
810
00:34:57,057 --> 00:34:58,997
from almost just a brute force approach.
811
00:34:59,457 --> 00:35:03,067
Take all these simulations and run
them, use automated processes like EFT
812
00:35:03,137 --> 00:35:06,497
to analyze them and to come up with
some sort of parameter understanding of
813
00:35:06,497 --> 00:35:07,947
what patterns lead to certain things.
814
00:35:08,087 --> 00:35:11,867
So I'm taking a brute force approach
to the problem while also taking a
815
00:35:11,887 --> 00:35:15,847
"let's just look at one storm and
understand it and then learn something
816
00:35:15,847 --> 00:35:19,077
from it" but don't necessarily
attribute that to all storms.
817
00:35:19,177 --> 00:35:22,757
I'm sure there are tornadoes that form
when there's a surge in the rear flank
818
00:35:22,827 --> 00:35:26,792
that compresses vorticity, helps to
spin it up, and then the tornado forms.
819
00:35:26,792 --> 00:35:28,817
I'm absolutely positively
sure that happens in many
820
00:35:28,817 --> 00:35:31,327
cases, but it's not necessary.
821
00:35:31,387 --> 00:35:31,727
Okay.
822
00:35:31,727 --> 00:35:32,657
That's what I'm saying.
823
00:35:32,657 --> 00:35:35,457
It doesn't have to happen in
because it doesn't happen in
824
00:35:35,457 --> 00:35:37,137
my simulations of this event.
825
00:35:37,207 --> 00:35:40,377
There's literally no RFD
surge or even an RFD.
826
00:35:40,547 --> 00:35:44,587
The meso is so frigging strong,
it's like, where is the RFD?
827
00:35:44,587 --> 00:35:45,807
Yeah.
828
00:35:45,807 --> 00:35:47,147
And there's another acronym for you.
829
00:35:47,352 --> 00:35:48,192
Anyway, yeah.
830
00:35:48,192 --> 00:35:49,872
The small scale stuff is important.
831
00:35:49,872 --> 00:35:53,922
It's important that you capture the full
spectrum of turbulence, as full as you
832
00:35:53,922 --> 00:35:57,122
can to capture these motions because
otherwise they don't get resolved.
833
00:35:57,122 --> 00:35:58,922
And that has a upscale effect.
834
00:35:58,922 --> 00:36:02,342
You're not, you might get what we
call a TLV, a tornado-like vortex.
835
00:36:02,472 --> 00:36:05,972
And if you look at the literature,
most tornado papers are actually TLV
836
00:36:05,972 --> 00:36:10,362
papers because they're run at resolution
that really doesn't resolve a tornado.
837
00:36:10,492 --> 00:36:14,012
I would argue that my simulations, at
least like the 10 meters for sure, you're
838
00:36:14,012 --> 00:36:18,042
literally resolving the tornado because
it breaks down into multiple vortices.
839
00:36:18,052 --> 00:36:20,372
It does things that look very
similar to what's in the field.
840
00:36:20,522 --> 00:36:24,212
You see it go from a tight needle,
a single cell to a two cell,
841
00:36:24,212 --> 00:36:26,832
to a multiple vortex that goes
undergoes all that morphology.
842
00:36:26,932 --> 00:36:29,092
Like we, some storms do the same thing.
843
00:36:29,162 --> 00:36:31,722
Some storms come out the gate
as a multiple vortex tornado.
844
00:36:31,722 --> 00:36:34,812
I have yet to simulate a storm
that starts out multiple vortex,
845
00:36:34,832 --> 00:36:36,072
but I've seen that in the field.
846
00:36:36,072 --> 00:36:39,922
What's the one in Arkansas from a few
years ago, the super photogenic...
847
00:36:40,052 --> 00:36:40,612
oh, crud.
848
00:36:40,612 --> 00:36:41,922
I always forget these names.
849
00:36:42,012 --> 00:36:43,517
Gabriel: Yeah, I was gonna say Dr.
850
00:36:43,517 --> 00:36:47,257
Frame, my co host on the the
more educational episodes, he is
851
00:36:47,317 --> 00:36:48,707
the best I've ever met at this.
852
00:36:48,717 --> 00:36:52,097
He can rattle off the date, the
time, the place, and everything.
853
00:36:52,097 --> 00:36:54,167
I forget the first one
that I try to remember.
854
00:36:54,167 --> 00:36:54,287
Dr.
855
00:36:54,287 --> 00:36:55,427
Orf: I should have done
my homework before.
856
00:36:55,497 --> 00:36:57,997
Anyway there's one where you're
literally, someone's right on the
857
00:36:57,997 --> 00:37:01,837
storm, and you're watching these
multiple dirt vortices swirl around,
858
00:37:02,027 --> 00:37:03,737
and the tornado just forms like that.
859
00:37:03,737 --> 00:37:06,517
So it's, I don't know, maybe it was
a tornado before then, I don't know.
860
00:37:06,517 --> 00:37:10,457
Anyway, coming back to your original
point, getting these small scale features
861
00:37:10,457 --> 00:37:15,757
right, I think is important to getting the
answers right to the scientific problem.
862
00:37:15,907 --> 00:37:18,887
So that's why I'm always trying to
push the frontier on resolution.
863
00:37:18,937 --> 00:37:21,117
I'm at 10 meters, there's, they're
already talking about the next
864
00:37:21,117 --> 00:37:23,787
supercomputer beyond the one
that's, currently state of the art.
865
00:37:23,867 --> 00:37:25,547
And, can we go to higher resolution?
866
00:37:25,727 --> 00:37:28,447
Somebody could ask do you
really need to go to five meters
867
00:37:28,447 --> 00:37:29,667
to four meters or whatnot?
868
00:37:29,737 --> 00:37:32,997
And I would say the biggest problem
with all the work I do is how we
869
00:37:32,997 --> 00:37:34,637
handle the surface boundary condition.
870
00:37:34,757 --> 00:37:36,527
It the models are idealized that we use.
871
00:37:36,527 --> 00:37:39,507
In other words, there's no trees,
there's no plants, there's no topography,
872
00:37:39,507 --> 00:37:42,957
the earth is flat, the Coriolis force
isn't turned on because who needs it?
873
00:37:43,057 --> 00:37:43,877
It's a thunderstorm.
874
00:37:44,217 --> 00:37:47,357
It's built into the sounding really,
but you don't have to worry about the
875
00:37:47,357 --> 00:37:49,257
air getting deflected in the supercell.
876
00:37:49,277 --> 00:37:50,307
It's such a small factor.
877
00:37:50,467 --> 00:37:52,797
So we had, these models
are highly idealized.
878
00:37:52,807 --> 00:37:56,667
We don't currently the model
doesn't centrifuge debris or say
879
00:37:56,687 --> 00:37:58,777
hydrometeors, rain and stuff outside.
880
00:37:58,777 --> 00:38:02,037
So our tornadoes are full of rain instead
of having a little donut like they should.
881
00:38:02,217 --> 00:38:06,397
So I'm very happy to point out
the shortcomings of my approach
882
00:38:06,397 --> 00:38:07,827
and I'm very aware of them.
883
00:38:07,977 --> 00:38:11,927
But on the other hand, there's
no globally recognized answers
884
00:38:11,927 --> 00:38:12,957
to some of these problems.
885
00:38:12,997 --> 00:38:15,222
How do you handle the ground correctly?
886
00:38:15,272 --> 00:38:19,482
And I, this is where video footage helps
a lot when I so called "turn friction on",
887
00:38:19,482 --> 00:38:21,662
as we say in the model, it screws it up.
888
00:38:21,692 --> 00:38:23,012
It screws up the storm that I've got.
889
00:38:23,012 --> 00:38:26,122
It no longer produces the
long track EF5 tornado.
890
00:38:26,202 --> 00:38:29,292
I believe me, I've tried many times
doing different things with friction.
891
00:38:29,292 --> 00:38:32,152
I've gently introduced it as
if it were like a little ridge.
892
00:38:32,152 --> 00:38:35,262
I've done all this funny stuff and
it just, it really messes things up.
893
00:38:35,752 --> 00:38:38,652
And there's, recent work by
Paul Markowski at Penn State
894
00:38:38,652 --> 00:38:39,622
who's looking at this problem.
895
00:38:39,622 --> 00:38:41,632
He's one of the top in the world on this.
896
00:38:41,682 --> 00:38:46,002
And, even he acknowledges, maybe there's
no perfect answer to this problem.
897
00:38:46,002 --> 00:38:50,012
How do you handle the ground in the
most physically correct way that both
898
00:38:50,032 --> 00:38:53,577
captures the way that say the cold pool
interacts with the ground and your gust
899
00:38:53,587 --> 00:38:56,957
fronts are erect because you have some
friction, you have that, but doesn't
900
00:38:56,987 --> 00:39:00,967
trash the tornado because the tornado,
what's the boundary layer in a tornado?
901
00:39:00,967 --> 00:39:01,137
Dr.
902
00:39:01,137 --> 00:39:01,827
Orf: How deep is it?
903
00:39:01,827 --> 00:39:02,777
Is it millimeters?
904
00:39:02,777 --> 00:39:03,517
I don't know.
905
00:39:03,677 --> 00:39:07,327
But if you turn friction on traditionally,
it's just, it might wipe out the
906
00:39:07,327 --> 00:39:09,347
forces that make the tornado work.
907
00:39:09,567 --> 00:39:14,327
So anyway, but however, there's certain
aspects of tornadoes, the most violent
908
00:39:14,447 --> 00:39:17,647
winds in the tornadoes wouldn't happen
if it weren't for friction on the ground.
909
00:39:17,717 --> 00:39:20,357
So there's all these issues and
this is what makes science fun.
910
00:39:20,357 --> 00:39:23,667
I'm sitting here, I feel like
sometimes I just making this stuff
911
00:39:23,667 --> 00:39:25,527
up, but the computer's doing it.
912
00:39:25,657 --> 00:39:27,347
But then it's trying to
make sense of it all.
913
00:39:27,457 --> 00:39:31,387
And again, coming back to why I spend
so much time looking at real footage
914
00:39:31,387 --> 00:39:34,852
is that I've I'm still convincing
myself that I'm on the right track
915
00:39:34,852 --> 00:39:37,932
because even though perhaps the surface
boundary isn't being done correctly,
916
00:39:38,072 --> 00:39:39,692
my tornadoes look like real tornadoes.
917
00:39:39,702 --> 00:39:41,372
My supercells look like real supercells.
918
00:39:41,392 --> 00:39:43,922
They look even similar to the
ones that I'm trying to model.
919
00:39:44,082 --> 00:39:48,412
So that alone tells me I'm again, I'm
not gonna, I'm not going to necessarily
920
00:39:48,412 --> 00:39:51,777
hang up my hat because somebody thinks
I need to have friction on to be right.
921
00:39:51,827 --> 00:39:54,627
It's, I've tried that and I'm
still trying to get it to work.
922
00:39:54,627 --> 00:39:57,927
But in the meanwhile, let's see if we can
figure some stuff out what's going on.
923
00:39:58,077 --> 00:40:01,077
With the SVC, or tornado genesis,
try to figure these things out,
924
00:40:01,127 --> 00:40:02,567
and and that's just what I do.
925
00:40:02,587 --> 00:40:05,607
We're all trying to figure out
why tornadoes form sometimes
926
00:40:05,647 --> 00:40:07,127
and don't form other times.
927
00:40:07,127 --> 00:40:09,977
I shouldn't say everyone, but if you're
in, if you're in severe weather, and
928
00:40:09,977 --> 00:40:13,167
you study supercells and tornadoes,
that's one of the biggest, that's
929
00:40:13,177 --> 00:40:14,357
probably the biggest question, right?
930
00:40:14,367 --> 00:40:19,077
Why does tornado, Supercell A form a long
track EF5 where Supercell B, which is in
931
00:40:19,077 --> 00:40:24,777
a very similar environment, very similar
SRH, very similar CAPE, wind profile, dew
932
00:40:24,777 --> 00:40:28,177
point, all that stuff, and it produces a
nice long, the supercell with no tornado.
933
00:40:28,337 --> 00:40:32,037
And I think some of the factors
involved include inhomogeneities
934
00:40:32,047 --> 00:40:34,547
with the surrounding environment,
topographical things.
935
00:40:34,667 --> 00:40:37,557
I'm thinking that there's these
little pools of vorticity that may
936
00:40:37,557 --> 00:40:41,007
be out there that if they're just
ingest, ingested just right, might
937
00:40:41,007 --> 00:40:42,697
be like an SVC and waiting, right?
938
00:40:42,697 --> 00:40:46,287
It's just not, and I'm being flipping
here, but there's going to be natural
939
00:40:46,297 --> 00:40:50,122
inhomogeneities that the storm is going to
gobble up, and some of those might be the
940
00:40:50,122 --> 00:40:54,182
factor here, or interaction with different
surface roughness because there's a line
941
00:40:54,182 --> 00:40:55,782
of trees over here or a valley over here.
942
00:40:55,952 --> 00:41:00,192
Those things may matter on a per
storm basis as to why some of
943
00:41:00,202 --> 00:41:01,652
these form tornadoes and why don't.
944
00:41:01,722 --> 00:41:05,932
And it may end up being a really difficult
problem to solve because of all the
945
00:41:05,932 --> 00:41:09,942
subtleties and the nonlinearities and
that are inherent to this kind of problem.
946
00:41:10,112 --> 00:41:10,382
Gabriel: Yeah.
947
00:41:10,382 --> 00:41:13,462
And I think that it's really cool
how you're pressing forward with
948
00:41:13,472 --> 00:41:17,787
the research and not getting hung
up on letting, what's the saying?
949
00:41:17,787 --> 00:41:19,647
"Letting the perfect be
the enemy of the good".
950
00:41:19,657 --> 00:41:23,767
You're not worried so much about getting
everything exactly the way it is with
951
00:41:23,767 --> 00:41:26,237
the surface layer because that'll come.
952
00:41:26,257 --> 00:41:28,717
There'll be enough people that are
interested in this and I already see it.
953
00:41:28,717 --> 00:41:31,237
There's enough people, like you said,
you uploaded a science video to YouTube.
954
00:41:31,647 --> 00:41:32,697
It got 20,000 views.
955
00:41:32,697 --> 00:41:33,597
That's not supposed to happen.
956
00:41:34,007 --> 00:41:37,077
There are plenty of people who are
going to be thinking about this
957
00:41:37,077 --> 00:41:40,187
and maybe non traditional ways and
they're going to be spending their
958
00:41:40,187 --> 00:41:42,317
entire days working on this problem.
959
00:41:42,337 --> 00:41:43,367
I think it's going to get there.
960
00:41:43,367 --> 00:41:46,227
So I'm glad to see that you're
powering forward with the really
961
00:41:46,227 --> 00:41:47,877
cool revelations that you have found.
962
00:41:47,877 --> 00:41:47,997
Dr.
963
00:41:47,997 --> 00:41:48,567
Orf: Yeah.
964
00:41:48,597 --> 00:41:50,157
Again I'm honest with this.
965
00:41:50,157 --> 00:41:53,417
That's why I'm very happy to talk
about the things that are wrong because
966
00:41:53,417 --> 00:41:55,227
it's not as if I'm unaware of them.
967
00:41:55,227 --> 00:41:58,557
It's just that I'm unaware how to make it
quote unquote, or, and I still think that
968
00:41:58,557 --> 00:42:01,487
higher resolution is probably going to
be the key to getting the surface right.
969
00:42:01,617 --> 00:42:04,397
I've had discussions with other people
who think I'm full of bologne, full of
970
00:42:04,397 --> 00:42:09,077
whatever on that issue, but I do think
that will help in order to capture the
971
00:42:09,077 --> 00:42:10,747
right kind of interaction with the ground.
972
00:42:10,747 --> 00:42:13,747
You just need to have a lot more grid
points, which is really unfortunate
973
00:42:13,747 --> 00:42:17,917
because when you have a higher, the higher
the resolution of the model the shorter of
974
00:42:17,917 --> 00:42:22,207
a time step, the model can use to maintain
stability, computational stability.
975
00:42:22,257 --> 00:42:26,407
In other words, when I run I
run in 1/20th of, no, actually
976
00:42:26,407 --> 00:42:27,467
it's even worse than that.
977
00:42:27,537 --> 00:42:31,657
1/20th of a second intervals in
time in the 10 meter simulation
978
00:42:31,657 --> 00:42:33,107
in order to maintain stability.
979
00:42:33,237 --> 00:42:37,902
So you have to run a lot of times to get
the storm to where you want it to be.
980
00:42:37,992 --> 00:42:39,582
So it's just it's depressing.
981
00:42:39,632 --> 00:42:42,332
There might be enough memory on your
machine to fit the problem in the
982
00:42:42,332 --> 00:42:46,852
memory, but it's going to take 74 years
of dedicated time to get it to work
983
00:42:47,172 --> 00:42:48,412
and no one's going to give you that.
984
00:42:48,422 --> 00:42:51,472
No one's built me a supercomputer
and I don't want them to, it's, it
985
00:42:51,472 --> 00:42:53,112
would be a terrible use of resources.
986
00:42:53,162 --> 00:42:54,852
So yeah we just move forward.
987
00:42:55,012 --> 00:42:57,852
What makes me feel pretty good is
I only have to go think back to my
988
00:42:57,852 --> 00:43:01,432
undergrad days in the eighties and
early, in the grad days in the 90s
989
00:43:01,592 --> 00:43:04,132
to see how far we've come to today.
990
00:43:04,267 --> 00:43:07,057
And we've, we've made
huge leaps of knowledge.
991
00:43:07,187 --> 00:43:10,757
Things like the SVC, I think are
potentially helping to nudge things
992
00:43:10,757 --> 00:43:14,457
forward, especially when you, if/when
these can be detected on radar.
993
00:43:14,617 --> 00:43:17,207
It's going to be difficult, I
think, to detect a lot of these
994
00:43:17,207 --> 00:43:20,457
things on operational weather
radars, like our WSR 88D's-
995
00:43:20,477 --> 00:43:22,437
Gabriel: It's just not
close enough to the ground.
996
00:43:22,437 --> 00:43:22,567
Dr.
997
00:43:22,567 --> 00:43:26,212
Orf: Yeah, not close enough to the
ground and too low a frequency.
998
00:43:26,412 --> 00:43:29,492
The research radars tend to be
higher frequency, more attenuation,
999
00:43:29,502 --> 00:43:31,682
you get closer to the storm,
you get better resolution.
1000
00:43:31,792 --> 00:43:33,792
In order to capture some of this
stuff, you really need to put
1001
00:43:33,792 --> 00:43:37,732
yourself there and maybe do RHI
scans as well as just PPI scans.
1002
00:43:37,752 --> 00:43:40,872
So don't just swing that sucker around
in a circle, make it go up and down
1003
00:43:40,882 --> 00:43:43,802
like you're vertical slice through the
cloud as opposed to a horizontal slice.
1004
00:43:43,902 --> 00:43:47,602
But yeah, it takes a whole lot of, and
that's why I say fieldwork is super duper
1005
00:43:47,602 --> 00:43:50,552
important, and I'm so glad that people
are doing it, and that people are good
1006
00:43:50,552 --> 00:43:54,032
at it, and people want to do it, and
because that data is absolutely precious
1007
00:43:54,082 --> 00:43:57,652
and it's what's need, we need to always
be pushing, in my opinion, we always need
1008
00:43:57,652 --> 00:43:59,272
to be pushing forward on these problems.
1009
00:43:59,392 --> 00:44:02,452
Both observationally,
theoretically, and numerically.
1010
00:44:02,492 --> 00:44:03,782
That's the way our field works.
1011
00:44:03,782 --> 00:44:06,312
You got the three stools
of meteorology right there.
1012
00:44:07,162 --> 00:44:08,102
Three legs on the stool.
1013
00:44:08,112 --> 00:44:10,422
Sorry, the other three stools,
three legs of the stool.
1014
00:44:10,622 --> 00:44:13,332
They often talk about teaching
research and service as being the
1015
00:44:13,332 --> 00:44:15,652
three legs of the academic stool.
1016
00:44:15,652 --> 00:44:18,812
It's It's theory,
modeling, and observations.
1017
00:44:18,862 --> 00:44:20,522
The three legs of the
stool from meteorology.
1018
00:44:20,562 --> 00:44:22,282
Alright, I spent way too
much time talking about that.
1019
00:44:23,082 --> 00:44:25,612
Gabriel: What I wanted to close
the podcast out with is part of
1020
00:44:25,612 --> 00:44:28,832
it from a psychological standpoint
that's really interesting to me.
1021
00:44:28,832 --> 00:44:31,282
The first thing that came to my mind, I
don't know if it's the first thing, one
1022
00:44:31,282 --> 00:44:34,992
of the first things that came to my mind
when I was watching your videos is just
1023
00:44:34,992 --> 00:44:41,122
the fact that it's going to take some
hubris to be the person that is disrupting
1024
00:44:41,132 --> 00:44:46,032
this conventional knowledge of what
causes supercell genesis and maintenance,
1025
00:44:46,232 --> 00:44:49,262
tornado genesis and maintenance,
and I think that's a good thing.
1026
00:44:49,262 --> 00:44:52,542
You've got to have somebody who says
"Yeah, I see what all you guys are saying,
1027
00:44:52,542 --> 00:44:55,682
and you're all super smart, and I respect
the hell out of all of you, but I think
1028
00:44:55,682 --> 00:44:58,702
that you might be wrong, or at least you
might be a little wrong in this regard".
1029
00:44:58,702 --> 00:45:01,732
So how has that actually
affected your work?
1030
00:45:01,732 --> 00:45:02,642
Have you ran into that?
1031
00:45:02,642 --> 00:45:06,452
And do you think that as your work
gains more prominence, and also as
1032
00:45:06,462 --> 00:45:10,062
more people maybe begin to take it
seriously from a research and academic
1033
00:45:10,062 --> 00:45:12,472
standpoint, you're gonna encounter
that more and more into the future?
1034
00:45:12,562 --> 00:45:12,722
Dr.
1035
00:45:12,722 --> 00:45:14,922
Orf: Yeah, It's a small field.
1036
00:45:15,042 --> 00:45:17,652
Severe storm researchers,
everyone knows everyone.
1037
00:45:17,712 --> 00:45:20,002
It's just, it's a small field.
1038
00:45:20,122 --> 00:45:25,452
I don't, I just take the, I
don't have a lot of my own
1039
00:45:25,642 --> 00:45:27,432
identity tied to my research.
1040
00:45:27,442 --> 00:45:28,392
I am a scientist.
1041
00:45:28,392 --> 00:45:29,092
I love science.
1042
00:45:29,102 --> 00:45:29,612
I do it.
1043
00:45:29,632 --> 00:45:30,482
It makes me happy.
1044
00:45:30,642 --> 00:45:32,952
I guess I published it
and I get grants and yay.
1045
00:45:33,162 --> 00:45:37,082
I think it's good for the field when
theories are turned on their heads.
1046
00:45:37,082 --> 00:45:38,822
That's when the big discoveries are made.
1047
00:45:38,822 --> 00:45:40,322
That's what the important history.
1048
00:45:40,322 --> 00:45:41,442
You see this all the time.
1049
00:45:41,562 --> 00:45:42,782
And I'm not saying I've done that.
1050
00:45:42,782 --> 00:45:48,172
What I'm saying is there is a tendency
for people to build their career around
1051
00:45:48,352 --> 00:45:52,802
a certain thing, and it can be difficult
when maybe the thing that you built your
1052
00:45:52,802 --> 00:45:56,907
career around, or that you're mainly many
of the papers that you wrote, maybe it
1053
00:45:56,907 --> 00:45:58,547
wasn't as important as you thought it was.
1054
00:45:58,547 --> 00:46:01,427
I'm not saying it's like I said,
I am absolutely sure that some
1055
00:46:01,427 --> 00:46:06,367
storms have a surge, boom, you get
a tornado because it's just, it
1056
00:46:06,367 --> 00:46:08,337
makes sense, but is it necessary?
1057
00:46:08,337 --> 00:46:11,907
Is this the way this is
the way the Mandalorian?
1058
00:46:12,057 --> 00:46:13,167
No, I don't think it is.
1059
00:46:13,197 --> 00:46:15,237
I think it's a lot more complex than that.
1060
00:46:15,247 --> 00:46:19,772
And I've identified a mode, let's call
it a mode, of tornado formation that
1061
00:46:19,772 --> 00:46:24,812
does not require the ingredients that
we thought were inquired for a tornado.
1062
00:46:24,962 --> 00:46:27,302
So I think the field's
ripe for disruption.
1063
00:46:27,312 --> 00:46:30,102
And I'm not the only one who's
doing work that's calling things.
1064
00:46:30,152 --> 00:46:30,722
That's science.
1065
00:46:30,722 --> 00:46:31,687
That's how progress is made.
1066
00:46:31,687 --> 00:46:31,946
Gabriel: Absolutely.
1067
00:46:31,946 --> 00:46:32,067
Dr.
1068
00:46:32,067 --> 00:46:34,412
Orf: And someone's gonna come around
and kick my ass at some point, I'm sure.
1069
00:46:34,412 --> 00:46:34,922
And that's fine.
1070
00:46:34,922 --> 00:46:35,402
That's good.
1071
00:46:35,402 --> 00:46:38,372
That's good for science and that's what
we should, how we should be approaching
1072
00:46:38,372 --> 00:46:39,782
the problem is that it's good for science.
1073
00:46:39,902 --> 00:46:41,402
But no, people have been friendly.
1074
00:46:41,502 --> 00:46:44,532
I have only, no, I, I've gotten,
I get rejected all the time,
1075
00:46:44,532 --> 00:46:47,012
but so do other scientists in
their grants or their papers.
1076
00:46:47,012 --> 00:46:49,442
It's, I've never seen anything where
somebody is just like, this guy's
1077
00:46:49,442 --> 00:46:54,002
full of bologne and it's because
he's not subscribing to my idea.
1078
00:46:54,062 --> 00:46:56,462
Criticism is good, but yeah,
we're, it's a tough crowd.
1079
00:46:56,472 --> 00:46:58,782
The severe weather community
is a tough crowd, believe me.
1080
00:46:58,782 --> 00:47:01,992
Gabriel: I see it anecdotally on
Twitter all the time, so I don't know
1081
00:47:01,992 --> 00:47:04,762
if it's a good or a bad thing that
you're not on there, but it definitely
1082
00:47:04,762 --> 00:47:05,932
would get pretty vicious, I think.
1083
00:47:05,942 --> 00:47:06,062
Dr.
1084
00:47:06,062 --> 00:47:09,142
Orf: The reason why I, one of
the main reasons I spent all this
1085
00:47:09,162 --> 00:47:11,882
effort on visualizing stuff is I
just hold it in front of anyone's
1086
00:47:11,882 --> 00:47:13,292
face and say, okay, here it is.
1087
00:47:13,432 --> 00:47:14,532
Argue with the model.
1088
00:47:14,582 --> 00:47:15,462
Don't argue with me.
1089
00:47:15,472 --> 00:47:18,542
Argue with the fricking
model because there it is.
1090
00:47:18,542 --> 00:47:19,342
I am showing it.
1091
00:47:19,352 --> 00:47:20,292
The model is showing it.
1092
00:47:20,512 --> 00:47:24,132
So I just hold it in front of me and
say, Hey, sorry, man, this is it.
1093
00:47:24,802 --> 00:47:27,662
Argue with the model,
argue with the environment.
1094
00:47:27,662 --> 00:47:28,162
I don't know.
1095
00:47:28,242 --> 00:47:29,232
But it's good.
1096
00:47:29,232 --> 00:47:30,272
It's good for the field.
1097
00:47:30,372 --> 00:47:31,502
And I don't know.
1098
00:47:31,552 --> 00:47:33,242
I most, I don't know.
1099
00:47:33,432 --> 00:47:36,602
Gabriel: 'Cause when I heard you say,
if I could interject real quick, when
1100
00:47:36,602 --> 00:47:39,932
I heard you talking about with, I think
it was with Hank, where talking about
1101
00:47:39,932 --> 00:47:45,827
how the RFD is oftentimes not active
or persistent during tornado genesis
1102
00:47:45,847 --> 00:47:48,757
and a lot of these videos that you see
and then your suggestion being that
1103
00:47:48,757 --> 00:47:56,007
the RFD might be more a result of the
actual storm itself causing it rather
1104
00:47:56,007 --> 00:47:58,767
than, sorry, I've got a little, in a
truly professional manner, I had an
1105
00:47:58,767 --> 00:47:59,947
alarm starting to go off on my phone.
1106
00:48:00,747 --> 00:48:03,927
And yeah, you talking about how
the ingestion of the streamlines
1107
00:48:04,097 --> 00:48:07,017
vorticity and the causing of this
low pressure perturbation up into
1108
00:48:07,017 --> 00:48:10,227
the mesocyclone might actually also
be causing the RFD and not the other
1109
00:48:10,227 --> 00:48:13,917
way around I think has the potential
to ruffle a lot of people's feathers.
1110
00:48:13,967 --> 00:48:14,087
Dr.
1111
00:48:14,087 --> 00:48:17,547
Orf: Here's the thing, I've watched a lot
of chase video and it's a safer place to
1112
00:48:17,557 --> 00:48:20,797
be in the RFD area because the storm's
moving away from you, but you'll see
1113
00:48:20,797 --> 00:48:24,037
somebody with a camera and then the wind
suddenly starts blowing in their face.
1114
00:48:24,037 --> 00:48:26,257
They're like " RFD!", I'm like, stop.
1115
00:48:26,347 --> 00:48:29,527
That was a gust, horizontal
gust in your face.
1116
00:48:29,732 --> 00:48:33,892
You are assuming that the, that gust
came from a downburst like action
1117
00:48:33,892 --> 00:48:36,982
in the rear flank that caused air to
spread out and blast you in the face.
1118
00:48:37,052 --> 00:48:41,522
However, it is also possible that
a very rapidly tightening pressure
1119
00:48:41,522 --> 00:48:45,262
gradient has caused the wind to
just really get fast, and you happen
1120
00:48:45,262 --> 00:48:46,272
to be in, it moved over your...
1121
00:48:46,272 --> 00:48:46,682
I don't know.
1122
00:48:46,842 --> 00:48:48,392
There's a lot of turbulent things.
1123
00:48:48,402 --> 00:48:49,182
There's a lot of things going on.
1124
00:48:49,412 --> 00:48:52,952
And it could be that at the same
time these things going on in the
1125
00:48:52,952 --> 00:48:55,352
rear flank are getting active,
there's also stuff going on in the
1126
00:48:55,352 --> 00:48:56,822
forward flank and the mesocyclone.
1127
00:48:57,022 --> 00:48:59,672
So in other words, it might not be
one's causing the other, they're
1128
00:48:59,672 --> 00:49:03,242
both caused by something else,
or it's all mixed in together.
1129
00:49:03,352 --> 00:49:07,152
But I've always never liked the argument
that there's this magical downdraft region
1130
00:49:07,152 --> 00:49:10,952
that just goes poof, and is like trying
to set out things to start tornadoes
1131
00:49:10,952 --> 00:49:12,672
going, which is how I see that theory.
1132
00:49:12,867 --> 00:49:15,687
The theory used to be required
in order to bring vorticity.
1133
00:49:15,717 --> 00:49:17,577
You can't grow vorticity
out of the ground.
1134
00:49:17,577 --> 00:49:18,867
So you always want to...
1135
00:49:18,867 --> 00:49:22,017
people always invoke downdrafts as
bringing vorticity to the ground.
1136
00:49:22,017 --> 00:49:23,787
It's the only thing you can
do is bring vorticity to the
1137
00:49:23,787 --> 00:49:24,497
ground and some downdrafts.
1138
00:49:24,667 --> 00:49:25,727
I don't disagree with that.
1139
00:49:25,867 --> 00:49:28,437
It's just that the downdrafts
that are bringing vorticity to
1140
00:49:28,437 --> 00:49:32,987
the ground are like 15 kilometers
forward of the storm and there's
1141
00:49:32,987 --> 00:49:34,657
already all churning and vorticity.
1142
00:49:34,657 --> 00:49:37,567
There's tons of stuff spinning already,
so that's already been taken care of.
1143
00:49:37,747 --> 00:49:40,817
You don't need an RFD
to add more vorticity.
1144
00:49:40,847 --> 00:49:41,907
That's not what's needed.
1145
00:49:42,297 --> 00:49:47,007
The horizontal motion of an RFD surge
can compress vorticity and shrink
1146
00:49:47,007 --> 00:49:50,117
it down, and then maybe that'll
intensify a vortex, but it's got to
1147
00:49:50,117 --> 00:49:52,537
be somehow connected to the parent
cloud, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
1148
00:49:52,537 --> 00:49:53,127
Gabriel: All right.
1149
00:49:53,127 --> 00:49:53,247
Dr.
1150
00:49:53,247 --> 00:49:54,357
Orf: So anyway, I don't know.
1151
00:49:54,552 --> 00:49:57,732
Again I make these videos, I make
these movies because they tell
1152
00:49:57,732 --> 00:49:59,362
a better story than I can tell.
1153
00:49:59,452 --> 00:50:02,142
But obviously you need to break
it down into the component
1154
00:50:02,152 --> 00:50:03,202
bits and that's the hard part.
1155
00:50:03,202 --> 00:50:05,902
And yes, that's where I'm hoping
to get another couple of postdocs
1156
00:50:05,922 --> 00:50:08,592
working with me soon, hoping to
get a couple of grants to work out.
1157
00:50:08,692 --> 00:50:10,542
And to make my team a little bigger.
1158
00:50:10,712 --> 00:50:12,902
But yeah yeah, this has been fun.
1159
00:50:13,242 --> 00:50:15,632
It's always fun to talk about
your research and this has
1160
00:50:15,632 --> 00:50:17,142
been an enjoyable podcast.
1161
00:50:17,142 --> 00:50:18,012
Gabriel: Absolutely.
1162
00:50:18,032 --> 00:50:20,712
I really appreciate you joining
us here to talk about this.
1163
00:50:20,712 --> 00:50:21,992
I say us, I guess it's just me.
1164
00:50:21,992 --> 00:50:22,612
So that would be the-
1165
00:50:22,612 --> 00:50:22,862
Dr.
1166
00:50:22,892 --> 00:50:25,352
Orf: And all your lovely thousands
and thousands of listeners.
1167
00:50:25,462 --> 00:50:26,242
Millions of listeners!
1168
00:50:26,242 --> 00:50:26,692
Gabriel: That's true.
1169
00:50:26,712 --> 00:50:26,782
That's true.
1170
00:50:26,782 --> 00:50:27,522
Include all of that.
1171
00:50:27,692 --> 00:50:30,775
Hopefully at some point, not only
will, for my own personal my own
1172
00:50:30,775 --> 00:50:33,003
personal gain have that, but that'd
be pretty cool if there were actually
1173
00:50:33,003 --> 00:50:35,284
millions of folks who were interested
in severe weather and all that stuff.
1174
00:50:35,284 --> 00:50:38,774
We'd probably be on the fast track to
getting research like yours solved.
1175
00:50:38,804 --> 00:50:39,014
Dr.
1176
00:50:39,014 --> 00:50:39,684
Orf: There you go.
1177
00:50:39,684 --> 00:50:40,824
No I'm glad you're doing this.
1178
00:50:40,864 --> 00:50:43,154
I think it's really
great, and I look forward.
1179
00:50:43,154 --> 00:50:44,904
I, like I said, I listened
to Hank's interview.
1180
00:50:44,904 --> 00:50:47,994
I'll probably listen around a little
more and keep an ear on your podcast.
1181
00:50:48,054 --> 00:50:52,654
So yeah, like I said, I'm not a chaser
at heart, but I appreciate all the hard
1182
00:50:52,654 --> 00:50:56,014
work that people do who go out in the
field, whether for fun or for science.
1183
00:50:56,134 --> 00:50:58,244
And the only thing I ever
say is just be careful.
1184
00:50:58,294 --> 00:51:00,904
I, you're all adults, but just be careful.
1185
00:51:00,964 --> 00:51:02,074
It's, it can be dangerous.
1186
00:51:02,574 --> 00:51:04,014
Gabriel: Yeah, no this is very true.
1187
00:51:04,074 --> 00:51:06,954
My girlfriend actually, who's in the
other room right now, she won't she
1188
00:51:06,954 --> 00:51:08,374
won't- I won't say she won't let me.
1189
00:51:08,384 --> 00:51:10,394
She does not like it when
I go out chasing alone.
1190
00:51:10,404 --> 00:51:12,314
She prefers to go out
with me and be the driver.
1191
00:51:12,314 --> 00:51:13,944
So I'm with you on that.
1192
00:51:13,944 --> 00:51:16,114
It's definitely something that's
more safe, especially if you
1193
00:51:16,114 --> 00:51:17,194
have another person with you.
1194
00:51:17,194 --> 00:51:17,324
Dr.
1195
00:51:17,324 --> 00:51:17,724
Orf: Yep.
1196
00:51:17,834 --> 00:51:18,444
Absolutely.
1197
00:51:18,584 --> 00:51:19,214
Absolutely.
1198
00:51:19,354 --> 00:51:21,054
But again, I'm not here
to preach to people.
1199
00:51:21,084 --> 00:51:21,824
People are going to go out.
1200
00:51:21,854 --> 00:51:22,774
They're going to do their thing.
1201
00:51:22,824 --> 00:51:23,814
And that's just fine.
1202
00:51:23,944 --> 00:51:27,424
But I'm going to sit here in my basement
and try to debug models and figure out
1203
00:51:27,424 --> 00:51:29,054
what's going on with tornadoes my own way.
1204
00:51:29,554 --> 00:51:32,484
Gabriel: I'm waiting for the day
when Hank actually just decides
1205
00:51:32,624 --> 00:51:35,864
to say, screw it, gets out of his
vehicle and just rides the tornado.
1206
00:51:35,894 --> 00:51:39,219
Just hops on a piece of debris and
that's how he sails off into the sunset.
1207
00:51:39,219 --> 00:51:41,099
'Cause it seems like that's
what he's trending towards.
1208
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:41,369
Dr.
1209
00:51:41,369 --> 00:51:43,139
Orf: Oh, I've talked
to him about this, man.
1210
00:51:43,149 --> 00:51:45,739
At least he showed a little bit of
sense and I've got a wife now and I
1211
00:51:45,739 --> 00:51:48,899
got someone else to think about, so
maybe I'll be a little more careful.
1212
00:51:48,899 --> 00:51:50,439
Dude, be careful.
1213
00:51:50,439 --> 00:51:52,149
You're too cool to die right now.
1214
00:51:52,419 --> 00:51:52,869
Gabriel: Yes.
1215
00:51:52,989 --> 00:51:54,209
I cannot agree more.
1216
00:51:54,209 --> 00:51:57,009
So on that, we will close out the podcast.
1217
00:51:57,029 --> 00:51:59,999
If you could real quick, could you please
plug where people could find your work?
1218
00:51:59,999 --> 00:52:00,119
Dr.
1219
00:52:00,119 --> 00:52:00,599
Orf: Sure.
1220
00:52:00,599 --> 00:52:02,469
So my name's Leigh Orf, L E I G H.
1221
00:52:02,819 --> 00:52:06,759
O R F, plop that into Google, it'll
do ya, but O R F dot M E D I A.
1222
00:52:06,759 --> 00:52:09,599
orf.Media will get ya everywhere,
everything you need to know about me.
1223
00:52:09,689 --> 00:52:12,279
Gabriel: Awesome, thanks again
for joining us, and folks, I will
1224
00:52:12,279 --> 00:52:15,609
be back very shortly with another
interview coming up in a couple days.
1225
00:52:15,669 --> 00:52:16,838
Take care, everybody.
1226
00:52:16,839 --> 00:52:17,939
Gabriel: Thanks for listening.
1227
00:52:18,019 --> 00:52:21,309
If you're not already subscribed,
hit that button right now and then
1228
00:52:21,309 --> 00:52:24,949
make sure notifications are turned on
so you never miss an episode again.
1229
00:52:25,019 --> 00:52:27,569
There are lots of ways to show
your support for Chaser Chat.
1230
00:52:27,649 --> 00:52:30,709
You can pick up something from the
merch store, leave a rating and a review
1231
00:52:30,709 --> 00:52:34,399
on your favorite podcast app, leave
a comment and a like on YouTube, or
1232
00:52:34,399 --> 00:52:37,919
just share the link to this episode on
your preferred social media platform.
1233
00:52:38,059 --> 00:52:40,649
Thanks again for listening, and
I'll catch you on the next episode.
