# Michael Metcalfe
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Top podcast episodes featuring michael metcalfe.
Last Year's Surprises Meet This Year's Markets
And the end of 2023, Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, published a piece highlighting where our research offered a differential to market consensus throughout the year. This week, he is back on the podcast to talk about where those potential surprises may or may not be resolving …
US Inflation Explained: Where We've Been and Where It's Going
Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as …
Easy Policies Don't Always Make For Easy Markets
Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It…
How Doomed Is the Dollar?
The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time…
Where Next on Inflation's Puzzling Path?
Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of…
Shutdown Economics
A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a de…
The US Dollar Time Machine: Relevant Lessons from History
Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic parallels towards making better forecasts? This week, we discuss the techniques of relevance based prediction and how more robust and successful outlooks …
The signals emerging from the State Street Markets Research Retreat
What makes the State Street Markets Research Retreat one of the industry's most distinctive investor events? In this episode, join Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, as he shares the history and evolution of the global retreat series and unpacks the market forces shap…
Stack the Week Daily
Welcome to Stack the Week for July 14th, Tuesday.
The daily experiment continues. Thank you for the subscriptions, feedback, the emails, and the steady stream of notes. Oh and the Apple podcast reviews are helpful. They introduce us to a wider audience.
If you’re reading this text on a screen inste…
Yen In Black
After years of the market anticipating strength in the Japanese yen, it might finally be here. Aided by official Japanese intervention in the currency and hints of collaboration with the United States, a correction of the JPY’s long-standing perceived undervaluation would make for one of the most m…
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