Public Bets Overs, Sharp Money Unders, Week 5 Steam

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Public is betting overs. The money is betting unders. Boston
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College and SMU, we got 97% of the money on
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the under on only 25% of the tickets. Middleton C
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in Kansas has got the exact same split. And over
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in the Sun Belt, James Madison opened 13.5 against Marshall.
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It is 19.5 now. That is six points of steam.
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I feel like nobody's really talking about it, but we're
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going to.
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Can you believe it? It's football. I've been watching it
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for 40 years.
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Are you kidding me?
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You're listening to Winning Cures Everything. Game day, baby.
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Wake up or get out.
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Here's your host. A confident young man.
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A superb athlete.
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Gary Segers. Welcome in. Winning Cures Everything. It is a
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college football podcast.
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I'm your host, Gary Segers, at GaryWCE on all the
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different socials.
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If you haven't.
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Subscribed yet, go ahead and do that. This is the
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Friday Pod.
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I'm your host, Gary. This is the undercard.
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It's everything that ain't in the 10 best, ain't in
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the next 15, and usually is not in Three Dog
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Thursday as well. We got line moves. We got where
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the money is against where the tickets are. We got
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the undercard breakdowns, Friday night games, Saturday midnight, a trend buffet,
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and I'm going to give you a watch guide with
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basically every window so you know where to park it
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on the couch. Let's go on and jump in. Let's
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start with the board. These are DraftKings numbers. They're open
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to current. Biggest move on the undercard is James Madison.
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Opened minus 13.5 against Marshall. Now it's minus 19.5. That's
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six points. Right through 14. Right through 17. Behind that,
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Georgia State opened a 1.5 point dog to Old Dominion.
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Now it's Georgia State minus 2.5. That is a favorite flip.
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You guys already know. If you follow me on BuyMeACoffee.
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what's going on there. UMass went from 2.5 to 6
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against Eastern Michigan. Toledo went from 17.5 to 20.5 at
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Ball State. Texas State went from 4.5 to 7.5 at
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San Diego State. And we'll talk some about that in
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the mumps. And Georgia Southern flipped from a 1.5 point
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dog to a 1.5 point favorite at Coastal. As far
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as other moves, Moves that went toward the dog. Wyoming,
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21 down to 17.5 against North Dakota State. Buffalo, 16.5
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down to 14 against Western Michigan. And San Jose State, 5.5
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down to 3 at Hawaii.
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Now, the totals, I.
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Feel like this is the story of the weekend. Bowling
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Green at Miami of Ohio opened 50.5. It's now 43.5.
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I mean, that's seven points of movement. Western Michigan, Buffalo,
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it's down 5.5. UTEP New Mexico down 5. Temple USF
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went down 4. Of the 11 undercard totals that moved
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3 points or more, 8 of them went down. The
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only ones that are climbing are UTSA Rice. That went
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up 4. I mean, that tracks because I don't think
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Rice can stop UTSA. Indiana Rutgers went up 3. And
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Army and Louisiana Tech went up 3. So, let's talk
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some splits. I went through every page of the DraftKings
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betting splits. just to get it from one specific book.
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I'm only going to talk about the games where the
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money and the tickets disagree, because 100% and 100% on
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a MAAC game is... I mean, that's about three bets.
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That's not a signal, that's a group chat, right? So,
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let's start with Boston College at SMU. The under has
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97% of the money on 25% of the bets. BC
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plus 21 has 79% of the money on a third
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of the tickets. When you see stuff like that, it's...
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Very interesting. Middle Tennessee at Kansas. Same shape, right? Under
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has 97% of the money, 25%.
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Of the bets.
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Temple plus 6.5 at South Florida. 81% of the money
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on Temple on just 36% of the tickets. I typically
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don't like to be on this side of it. But,
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you know, it is what it is. Navy plus 3.5
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against Air Force. 66% of the money on 40% of
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the bets.
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And Arkansas.
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And Texas A & M, total bets are split 50-50.
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The money is 100% on the under.
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Found that interesting. Found that interesting.
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On the big games, you've already heard about the under
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monies everywhere, right? Ohio State, Iowa, under 96% of the
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money on 9% of the bets. Auburn, Tennessee, 94 on 13. Washington, USC,
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83 on 5%. So keep this in the back of
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your mind this weekend. The public has bet the over.
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The money has bet the under. I'm intrigued. I am very,
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very intrigued. Let's go to.
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Well, before we do that, before we get into the games,
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if you're enjoying the show, and I hope you are,
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do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button. Whether you're
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listening on Apple or Spotify or whatever, but leave a
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nice five-star review if you would so kindly. If you're
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on the podcast side... Leave a review. I'm going through
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my YouTube notes.
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Leave five stars. I would appreciate that. Tell me what
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you like. Tell me what you don't.
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Like, that's the easiest way, the cheapest way to help
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this thing grow. It takes about 20 seconds or so.
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We'll keep the gambling insights and the entertainment coming. You know,
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you just help us spread this thing. That's all we
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got to do. All right, let's get to the games.
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Let's go with a Friday game we have not discussed
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just yet, and that's Liberty at Delaware. It is 6 p.m.
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Central Time on CBS Sports Network. Liberty opened minus 7.
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It is 6.5 now.
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Total is 50.5.
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It hadn't budged. This is Conference USA. This league is
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wide open. Next week, by the way, starts Tuesday night football.
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Tuesday and Wednesday night football. And I am stoked about it.
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Kennesaw State is struggling. Western Kentucky has been awful. The
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winner between Delaware and Liberty really takes a step forward here.
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So I think it's a pretty important game What's weird,
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Liberty got 87% of the spread money and 73% of
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the bets, and the line moved towards Delaware. And, you know,
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it's reverse line movement. The money's on one side, number
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moves the other way. On the money line, Delaware pulls two, wait. Yeah,
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Delaware plus 230. That is pulling 37% of the money
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on 8% of the tickets. So there's people taking a
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big swing on this home dog. But there is an
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asterisk with it, right? The Delaware quarterback, Nick Minucucci, I
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hope I said that right, he hurt his knee against Virginia.
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He was listed questionable earlier this week. There's a couple
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of spots that think that the passing game is going
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to struggle with or without him. 20% on third down
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against Vandy, 29% at Virginia, but those are not Liberty's defense, right?
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But Delaware's pass rush leads Conference USA at three and
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a half sacks a game. The run defense held Virginia
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to 2.9 yards a carry. Now, Liberty is coming in
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off a big win at Coastal 34-17 last week. Delaware
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beat that same Coastal team 22-14. Liberty won the meeting
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last year 59-30, but these are completely different teams now.
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I'm interested in this, right? Like, reverse line movement, a
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projection inside the number, a home dog with You know,
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pretty nasty pass rush.
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I got kind of lean Delaware here. Just keep an
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eye on the quarterback.
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Right? I don't know that there's going to be a
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huge difference. I'm just Delaware at home. This is an
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experienced roster. I'm curious about it. Next one up, we
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got to talk a service academy game. Cannot believe we
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didn't put this on the next 15. Navy at Air Force.
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This one is 11 a.m. Central, CBS. It's in Falcon Stadium.
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No neutral site, nothing like that. But it's the first
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leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Navy has won the last two.
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Last year, Navy edged Air Force 34-31. Air Force opened
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minus 1.5. That's now up to 3.5. It went right
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through that key number to 3.
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Total opened 49.5.
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It's now 46.5. It got down to 45.5 at one point,
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and people started taking the over. I mean, if you
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look at the money, 60% of the bets are on
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Air Force. 66% of the money is on Navy plus
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three and a half. The total, like 100% of the
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handle is on the under. I find that interesting. It
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also lets you know that betting splits are not always
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completely accurate. There's a lot of different models that have different.
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on this.
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I've seen some that have this more of a pick-em game.
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I've seen some that have Air Force by a touchdown.
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The bigger bets, the computer, those are on Navy. Both
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teams run the triple option. That means fewer possessions and
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a running clock. It's why this totals in the mid-40s.
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It kicks at 10 o'clock in the morning mountain, which
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is early for a Navy team that had to fly
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halfway across the country. You're getting the hook on three.
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The money's on the dog. And in a short possession game,
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a field goal and a hook matter a lot. I
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would tend to lean Navy here. I don't feel great
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about it because I know that Air Force can open
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this thing up so I'm curious I'm curious what they're
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saying or what ends up happening this is going to
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be a lot of fun to open up Saturday with
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but you're going to have to have it on a
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side screen because I know you want to watch Keelan
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and Camario So let's talk Boston College and SMU. This
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one's 11 a.m. Central Time on the CW in Dallas.
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The loudest split on the board here. SMU opened minus 21.
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Now it's 21.5. The total opened 56.5. It's now 55.5.
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Two-thirds of the bets are on SMU. 79% of the
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money is on Boston College plus 21. And as far
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as the total, three out of four tickets on the
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over are 97% of the money is on the under.
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I mean, that's about as lopsided as a split gets, right? I'm...
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I don't think that I would want to fight 97%
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of the money. Like, the under 55 and a half
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does seem to make sense. BC has a pretty decent defense.
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And SMU hasn't exactly shown that they are capable of, like,
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blowing out anybody.
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Boston College.
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has hung in with a lot of teams that I
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didn't expect them to. So I'm, again, interesting spot. I
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don't know that I would fight against 97% of the money, but, man, boy,
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that'd be a huge sportsbook win, wouldn't it? Syracuse and UConn,
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11 a.m. Central on CBS Sports Network. Syracuse opened minus 6.5.
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That's now 7. The total dropped from 53.5 to 50.5.
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Syracuse is 1-2, and I.
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Mean, good gracious.
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I'm looking through this. The bets are split 50-50 on
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the spread. 93% of the money is on Syracuse. You
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flip it to the money line, though, UConn plus 215,
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it's got 63% of the money on 21% of the bets.
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A lot of people liking UConn to win this thing outright.
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So the big spread bettors like the Cuse and the
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big money line bettors like the dog. I don't think
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I would want to lay a touchdown with Syracuse right now.
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Not on the road.
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But the way that everything went last year, Fran Brown
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made his boys run sprints after the UConn game. I mean,
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I'm a pass on this one. Syracuse should win it.
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They should be way better. But, man, it seems like
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Steve Angeli has kind of dropped some things. I'm curious
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about this backup quarterback, what they're going to end up
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looking like. It's the kid that, it's Odom that was
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the starting quarterback at Kennesaw last year. So I'm curious
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which direction they go if they keep running with Angeli
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because he just, he don't look the same that he
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did when he started off last season. Stanford at Wake.
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Another 11 a.m.
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Game.
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Wake open 12 and a half. It's now 13.5. Wake
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has 76% of the spread money. On the money line,
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Stanford plus 400 has 75% of the money on 3%
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of the bets. That's pretty crazy. That's an early game.
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Home favorite. Steady team.
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It's on the ACC network. I'm so curious about this
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Wake Forest team. Like, does Jake Dickert let them have
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an emotional letdown? Like, I doubt it, but who knows, right?
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I mean, this is a big-time spot for them. They
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lost to Miami. They come back. They beat Louisville on
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the road. Now they've got to come back home. Stanford,
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this is a really early.
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Game for them.
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I mean, this is a 9 a.m. body clock game
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for them. So I would stay away from it, personally.
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I mean, I don't know what to expect out of this.
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Marshall at James Madison. This one, 2.45 p.m. Central Time
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00:14:19.860 --> 00:14:23.340
on ESPNU. It's the biggest line move on this entire undercard.
240
00:14:23.759 --> 00:14:30.440
James Madison opened minus 13.5. It's minus 19.5 now. I mean,
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00:14:30.460 --> 00:14:35.230
that's such a huge move. The second biggest one from
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00:14:35.269 --> 00:14:38.929
an opener behind Miami and Clemson. When a number goes
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00:14:38.950 --> 00:14:41.909
through 14 and 17 like that, either the opener was
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00:14:41.950 --> 00:14:44.029
wrong or the market knows something that we don't. Like,
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00:14:44.049 --> 00:14:46.929
I could not find a public reason for this. I
246
00:14:47.419 --> 00:14:50.340
would check the injury bug, you know, injury report before
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00:14:50.379 --> 00:14:53.480
you bet it. Like, the splits are all JMU, spread
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00:14:53.539 --> 00:14:58.139
and over. But, I would imagine it's thin volume, so
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00:14:58.159 --> 00:15:00.769
I'm not going to read too much into the percentages. Like,
250
00:15:02.070 --> 00:15:09.850
James Madison is 4-0. They are just murdering everybody. I'd,
251
00:15:10.559 --> 00:15:12.710
The value, I think, kind of got squeezed out of
252
00:15:12.750 --> 00:15:15.970
this if you were going to bet James Madison. Like,
253
00:15:16.009 --> 00:15:20.269
I wouldn't chase the steam here. I mean, if anything,
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00:15:20.649 --> 00:15:22.730
if I had to make a selection, if you're in
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00:15:22.769 --> 00:15:25.629
a pick-em or something like that, I would almost go
256
00:15:25.649 --> 00:15:29.899
with Marshall at this number because I still trust that offense.
257
00:15:30.120 --> 00:15:33.740
I think the defense is okay. I think the bad
258
00:15:33.779 --> 00:15:37.299
showing against Gardner-Webb was just, that's an absolute look-ahead spot.
259
00:15:37.320 --> 00:15:40.259
They don't care about that one. The Penn State game,
260
00:15:40.279 --> 00:15:42.080
they didn't care about that one. That's a bye game.
261
00:15:42.440 --> 00:15:45.259
You start playing second string, third string really early there.
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00:15:47.450 --> 00:15:51.070
This is where you get into conference play. So I
263
00:15:51.149 --> 00:15:54.190
think that this Marshall team is better than they've shown.
264
00:15:55.309 --> 00:15:56.169
But who knows?
265
00:15:56.190 --> 00:15:59.690
I mean, James Madison does look really, really good. They
266
00:15:59.710 --> 00:16:03.919
look fantastic. Arkansas and Texas A & M. This one,
267
00:16:03.919 --> 00:16:06.059
6 p.m. Central Time. This is a night game on ESPN2.
268
00:16:06.980 --> 00:16:08.990
Kyle Field. Not bad.
269
00:16:09.049 --> 00:16:11.190
It's weird that this would be called an undercard game,
270
00:16:11.250 --> 00:16:14.950
but Arkansas has been so bad. A & M opened
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00:16:14.990 --> 00:16:17.480
minus 14.5. Yes, this A & M team that just
272
00:16:17.500 --> 00:16:21.539
got destroyed by LSU 35-6, they are now over a
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00:16:21.639 --> 00:16:27.960
two-touchdown favorite over Arkansas. Total went from 51.5 down to 50.5.
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00:16:27.940 --> 00:16:31.289
A & M' s got 89% of the spread money, but
275
00:16:31.309 --> 00:16:34.110
the bets are split right down the middle. It's 100%
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00:16:34.110 --> 00:16:36.470
of the money on the under. On the money line,
277
00:16:36.690 --> 00:16:41.399
Arkansas plus 450 Or plus 455. It has 64% of
278
00:16:41.419 --> 00:16:44.279
the money on 6% of the bets. So, there's some
279
00:16:44.299 --> 00:16:46.100
people that are betting the upset here. I don't know
280
00:16:46.120 --> 00:16:55.269
what they could possibly see on this. You know, models
281
00:16:55.309 --> 00:16:58.990
like the under. The money likes the under. The numbers
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00:16:59.009 --> 00:16:59.789
already moved a point.
283
00:17:00.929 --> 00:17:06.730
Like, I'm... I don't know. I don't know. Marcel Reed....
284
00:17:08.259 --> 00:17:12.089
He threw 12 interceptions last year. A & M rebuilt
285
00:17:12.109 --> 00:17:16.670
their offensive line through the portal. They lost four starters.
286
00:17:19.490 --> 00:17:21.529
When the model and the money and the market all
287
00:17:21.569 --> 00:17:26.160
point the same way, I would lean the under 50.5
288
00:17:26.279 --> 00:17:28.859
because I don't trust Marcel Reed in that offense to
289
00:17:28.880 --> 00:17:33.019
be able to get anything going, even against Arkansas. I
290
00:17:33.059 --> 00:17:35.259
really don't expect Arkansas to be able to get anything going.
291
00:17:35.599 --> 00:17:37.769
That place looks like a dumpster fire right now.
292
00:17:39.109 --> 00:17:39.769
Good gracious.
293
00:17:41.470 --> 00:17:43.789
So that one's 6 p.m. Central time. God's time zone
294
00:17:43.849 --> 00:17:48.029
on ESPN2. Utah State and Boise State. 6.30 p.m. Central
295
00:17:48.069 --> 00:17:50.410
on CBS Sports Network. This one on the blue turf.
296
00:17:50.750 --> 00:17:52.410
Boise minus 20.5. It hadn't moved.
297
00:17:52.579 --> 00:17:53.450
Total's up 2. 49.5 to 51.5.
298
00:17:53.450 --> 00:17:55.279
90% of the total money is on the over. And that's,
299
00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:57.160
you know, last year these two played a 25-24 game.
300
00:17:57.180 --> 00:18:00.640
It's 20.5 because Utah State just got destroyed by Utah.
301
00:18:08.539 --> 00:18:10.559
And they were scoring about 10 points a game through
302
00:18:10.700 --> 00:18:13.000
the first three. So it's not like their offense has
303
00:18:13.019 --> 00:18:13.799
gotten anything going.
304
00:18:16.339 --> 00:18:17.119
But people like.
305
00:18:16.980 --> 00:18:20.940
The over for some reason.
306
00:18:20.960 --> 00:18:23.069
I mean, that's just wild.
307
00:18:23.990 --> 00:18:26.410
Absolutely wild. And maybe they're expecting Boise to be able
308
00:18:26.450 --> 00:18:32.829
to run it up. You know, I can't trust Utah
309
00:18:32.849 --> 00:18:35.029
State to score, so why would I bet them even
310
00:18:35.069 --> 00:18:39.119
at plus 20 and a half? Like, that's the crazy thing.
311
00:18:39.720 --> 00:18:41.799
Temple and USF, USF minus 6.5 now. God, I mean,
312
00:18:41.819 --> 00:18:43.500
that thing was at 4.5 or 4, moved up to 6.5.
313
00:18:43.480 --> 00:18:45.869
Total dropped four points, 52.5 to 48.5 from what I
314
00:18:45.869 --> 00:18:46.990
can tell. 64% of the bets are on USF, but
315
00:18:47.009 --> 00:18:48.710
only 19% of the money. Some of my money's on
316
00:18:48.730 --> 00:18:49.009
that USF.
317
00:18:49.970 --> 00:18:50.470
That's just a guess.
318
00:19:11.529 --> 00:19:14.829
Temple Plus 6.5 has 81% of the handle on about
319
00:19:14.849 --> 00:19:19.910
a third of the tickets. I mean, that's pretty wild.
320
00:19:20.329 --> 00:19:23.269
When the money is that far from the tickets, like,
321
00:19:23.950 --> 00:19:27.250
I get very squeamish. I get curious.
322
00:19:28.130 --> 00:19:29.259
Indiana at Rutgers.
323
00:19:29.259 --> 00:19:35.759
7 p.m. Central, Big Ten Network. You know, finally, Indiana
324
00:19:35.799 --> 00:19:38.660
goes on the road. I mean, it's October now, so
325
00:19:38.900 --> 00:19:40.440
finally they're not playing a game in Bloomington.
326
00:19:41.519 --> 00:19:42.140
But it's Rutgers.
327
00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:46.990
So just kind of wild. Indiana opened minus 23.5.
328
00:19:46.980 --> 00:19:47.519
Totals up three. 53.5 to 56.5.
329
00:19:47.500 --> 00:19:51.559
And it's one of the only one of these games
330
00:19:51.579 --> 00:19:53.319
I'm talking about that's actually going up. 68% of the
331
00:19:53.359 --> 00:19:56.019
spread money is on Indiana. And on the money line,
332
00:19:56.400 --> 00:19:57.460
Rutgers plus 1,200 has half of the money on 8%
333
00:19:57.460 --> 00:20:11.529
of the bets. Feels like somebody's buying lottery tickets out there.
334
00:20:13.210 --> 00:20:17.250
Although I will say that Indiana has not exactly looked good. So,
335
00:20:17.990 --> 00:20:23.009
you know, the Rutgers, I mean, like Rutgers got destroyed
336
00:20:23.049 --> 00:20:23.609
by UMass.
337
00:20:25.230 --> 00:20:25.910
Just destroyed.
338
00:20:27.309 --> 00:20:29.990
I do not anticipate Rutgers winning this ballgame. I think
339
00:20:30.009 --> 00:20:32.089
this is more of a spread problem, not a result problem.
340
00:20:32.109 --> 00:20:35.230
I think Indiana wins. The question is whether you're going
341
00:20:35.269 --> 00:20:37.859
to lay 24 and a half, like in your first
342
00:20:37.910 --> 00:20:40.829
road trip of the season. So I'm going to pass
343
00:20:40.869 --> 00:20:45.069
on the side on this one. But this is, you know,
344
00:20:45.190 --> 00:20:48.009
another interesting data point before Indiana plays, you know, a
345
00:20:48.049 --> 00:20:51.549
real team. That's not to say Northwestern wasn't. I think
346
00:20:51.609 --> 00:20:55.210
Northwestern is actually pretty good. But the way that that
347
00:20:55.230 --> 00:20:57.779
schedule shaped up, I mean, it set them up perfectly
348
00:20:57.839 --> 00:21:03.720
to get back to October. Fresno State and Washington State,
349
00:21:04.500 --> 00:21:07.799
interesting one, 8.30 p.m. Central Time on USA Network. Wazoo
350
00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:11.339
minus 1.5, it's the closest line that I'm talking about today.
351
00:21:12.180 --> 00:21:14.859
Washington State is 1-3, but it makes sense if you
352
00:21:14.880 --> 00:21:18.119
look at the schedule. On the spread, Fresno plus 1.5
353
00:21:18.119 --> 00:21:22.079
has all the money, 100%, like on two-thirds of the bets. So,
354
00:21:22.599 --> 00:21:24.819
on the money line, Washington State has 70% of the
355
00:21:24.839 --> 00:21:28.009
money on 25% of the bets. So, you've got money
356
00:21:28.069 --> 00:21:32.630
on both teams, depending on which market you look at. Like,
357
00:21:32.809 --> 00:21:36.029
this is a Late game, West Coast coin flip.
358
00:21:36.210 --> 00:21:37.339
Like, I'm going to watch it. I'm not going to
359
00:21:37.410 --> 00:21:37.670
bet it.
360
00:21:38.259 --> 00:21:40.079
Because I don't know if I can trust this Fresno
361
00:21:40.099 --> 00:21:45.039
State offense. Like, I just, we'll see. And Washington State,
362
00:21:45.160 --> 00:21:47.220
you know, you've only seen them play against really good
363
00:21:47.240 --> 00:21:50.839
teams or better teams. So I'm not sure what to
364
00:21:50.880 --> 00:21:55.019
do with that. Let's rapid fire some of these from,
365
00:21:55.420 --> 00:21:59.109
you know, open to now. Memphis at Charlotte, who is
366
00:21:59.269 --> 00:22:02.319
over right now, 21.5 down to 20.5.
367
00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:02.900
Which makes sense.
368
00:22:02.960 --> 00:22:05.940
My model's got it like 18.5 to 19, somewhere around there.
369
00:22:07.490 --> 00:22:12.130
Toledo at Ball State, 17.5 up to 20.5. Western Michigan
370
00:22:12.210 --> 00:22:17.829
at Buffalo, 16.5 down to 14. All the spread money's
371
00:22:17.869 --> 00:22:21.880
on Buffalo. Buffalo is awful. I'm curious about that one.
372
00:22:22.470 --> 00:22:26.650
New Mexico over UTEP, 21 up to 22.5. North Dakota
373
00:22:26.690 --> 00:22:30.410
State over Wyoming, that one went from 21 down to 17.5.
374
00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:34.500
Georgia State over Old Dominion. We talked about this one.
375
00:22:34.519 --> 00:22:38.500
That was a favorite flip. Georgia Southern at Coastal flipped
376
00:22:38.539 --> 00:22:42.779
to minus 1.5. South Alabama over winless Louisiana Monroe, ULM.
377
00:22:43.799 --> 00:22:49.769
That's 14. Louisiana over Arkansas State. That's 4, up to 6.5.
378
00:22:49.769 --> 00:22:53.710
Texas State and San Diego State, 4.5, up to 7.5.
379
00:22:53.710 --> 00:22:59.430
That one's interesting. I got that thing at 4.5. Bet
380
00:22:59.450 --> 00:23:03.779
it in favor of Texas State. And my reasoning there
381
00:23:03.940 --> 00:23:06.359
had nothing to do with the fact that... So first off,
382
00:23:06.380 --> 00:23:07.900
San Diego State looks like they're going to be down
383
00:23:07.920 --> 00:23:11.240
to their third string running back. I don't trust Denigal
384
00:23:11.259 --> 00:23:14.059
to be able to throw the football at all, even
385
00:23:14.099 --> 00:23:17.279
on this Texas State defense. Texas State's offense has been
386
00:23:17.539 --> 00:23:22.740
absolutely freaking rolling lately. So that is something to pay
387
00:23:22.769 --> 00:23:27.009
attention to. And then, of course, the big news that
388
00:23:27.049 --> 00:23:33.609
came out yesterday... San Diego State has 14 players that
389
00:23:33.630 --> 00:23:37.690
have the mumps. They have not announced which 14 players
390
00:23:37.730 --> 00:23:42.970
it is. I suppose we will see on Saturday. Head
391
00:23:43.009 --> 00:23:48.299
coach Sean Davis said that, yeah, they can't talk about
392
00:23:48.319 --> 00:23:51.680
it because it's a HIPAA and a FERPA violation, but
393
00:23:53.519 --> 00:23:54.880
at some point we've got to know who's playing the
394
00:23:54.960 --> 00:23:58.019
game and who's not. Or if we're still playing the game,
395
00:23:58.059 --> 00:24:01.140
depending on how many people have actually caught it. Like,
396
00:24:01.160 --> 00:24:02.460
I don't even know that Texas State would want to
397
00:24:02.500 --> 00:24:09.480
play it. But, I mean, what happened to the MMR vaccine? Yeah,
398
00:24:09.500 --> 00:24:10.259
we're not going to get into that.
399
00:24:10.579 --> 00:24:12.440
We're not doing that. All right.
400
00:24:12.960 --> 00:24:15.660
Army and Louisiana Tech, 3.5 down to 1.5. Hawaii, San
401
00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:19.259
Jose State, 5.5 down to 3. UMass in eastern Michigan. 2.5
402
00:24:24.069 --> 00:24:26.450
up to 6. I think people are finally catching on
403
00:24:26.470 --> 00:24:28.539
that UMass is actually a pretty good football team this year.
404
00:24:30.039 --> 00:24:31.240
Ohio at Kent State.
405
00:24:31.259 --> 00:24:31.640
That was 5.5.
406
00:24:31.640 --> 00:24:34.380
It's down to 3.5. A lot of people thinking that
407
00:24:34.420 --> 00:24:36.440
Kent State is going to be pretty good. I mean,
408
00:24:36.460 --> 00:24:39.950
that quarterback's awesome. DeShields, I believe, is the name of
409
00:24:39.970 --> 00:24:45.490
the guy. Didn't do anything against their non-conference late. But
410
00:24:45.589 --> 00:24:51.549
I think there's a lot of these smaller G6 teams that... understand, okay,
411
00:24:51.569 --> 00:24:52.930
we're not going to make the playoff because we've got
412
00:24:52.950 --> 00:24:55.259
to play Georgia and we've got to play whoever.
413
00:24:55.619 --> 00:24:56.890
Penn State. Whatever it is.
414
00:24:57.779 --> 00:25:01.859
But we can rest up and we can still win
415
00:25:01.900 --> 00:25:05.279
our conference and that matters. I wonder if that's the
416
00:25:05.299 --> 00:25:08.859
thinking with some of these. Miami of Ohio is down
417
00:25:08.900 --> 00:25:13.680
a quarterback so they're down to 13.5 as a favorite
418
00:25:13.700 --> 00:25:14.880
over a winless Bowling Green.
419
00:25:15.779 --> 00:25:17.140
That total went way down.
420
00:25:17.140 --> 00:25:23.230
15.5 down to 43.5. The to Kansas over middle Tennessee,
421
00:25:23.230 --> 00:25:24.650
21 and a half down to 19 and a half.
422
00:25:24.670 --> 00:25:28.690
And that tracks because like my model has middle Tennessee
423
00:25:28.710 --> 00:25:29.869
covering that game.
424
00:25:31.190 --> 00:25:35.519
Very interesting. Um, let's do, let's do a plug real quick.
425
00:25:36.819 --> 00:25:40.940
If you want to support the show besides subscribing, you
426
00:25:40.960 --> 00:25:45.000
can go to buymeacoffee.com slash winning cures. Uh, that helps
427
00:25:45.039 --> 00:25:47.480
the research keep going, keeps the show free, keeps the
428
00:25:47.519 --> 00:25:51.410
content coming every week. And you know, you, you, be
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00:25:51.450 --> 00:25:53.170
a member over there. By the way, we've had several
430
00:25:53.250 --> 00:25:56.150
people that have become supporters over there. All that is
431
00:25:56.170 --> 00:25:59.890
is basically just tipping the show, which I do appreciate,
432
00:26:00.710 --> 00:26:03.549
but it doesn't get you all the bonus content. So
433
00:26:06.539 --> 00:26:08.839
if you're going to give me five bucks, just hit
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00:26:08.880 --> 00:26:12.039
the join button, like be a member. And then you
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00:26:12.059 --> 00:26:13.900
get all the posts, you get my official plays, you
436
00:26:13.920 --> 00:26:15.940
get all the other things. So go ahead and do that.
437
00:26:15.980 --> 00:26:20.940
It's buymeacoffee.com slash winning cures. Um, And I'm going to
438
00:26:20.960 --> 00:26:24.000
tell you to hit the subscribe button, make sure and
439
00:26:24.019 --> 00:26:26.400
leave a nice podcast review, all the good stuff over
440
00:26:26.440 --> 00:26:28.559
here as well, even if you don't want to jump
441
00:26:28.579 --> 00:26:28.940
in over there.
442
00:26:29.539 --> 00:26:29.880
I get it.
443
00:26:30.259 --> 00:26:33.180
I totally do. All right, let's hit the trend buffet.
444
00:26:34.359 --> 00:26:39.269
Let's do this thing. This is the big one, right?
445
00:26:39.309 --> 00:26:41.369
Public bets overs, money bets unders.
446
00:26:41.910 --> 00:26:42.529
That's the trend.
447
00:26:43.410 --> 00:26:45.529
On the undercard, we've already talked about Boston College SMU.
448
00:26:46.869 --> 00:26:49.519
Middle Tennessee, Kansas is the same thing. Wyoming, North Dakota State,
449
00:26:49.519 --> 00:26:54.140
100% of the money on 33% of the bets. Arkansas
450
00:26:54.200 --> 00:26:56.819
A & M, 100% of the money on the under
451
00:26:56.960 --> 00:26:59.319
on 50% of the bets. Navy Air Force, 100% on 58%.
452
00:26:59.319 --> 00:27:04.529
And the total is more degrees. Eight of 11 big
453
00:27:04.549 --> 00:27:07.589
total moves went down this time.
454
00:27:07.690 --> 00:27:08.269
Second trend.
455
00:27:09.549 --> 00:27:11.549
Spread games where tickets are on the favorite and the
456
00:27:11.589 --> 00:27:14.150
money is on the dog. We got a lot of those.
457
00:27:14.230 --> 00:27:18.710
BC plus 21%. Temple plus 6.5. Navy plus 3.5. Buffalo
458
00:27:18.730 --> 00:27:23.849
plus 14. Fresno plus 1.5. That's five of them. Third,
459
00:27:23.970 --> 00:27:27.470
we've got our steam list. James Madison, six points. Georgia State,
460
00:27:27.509 --> 00:27:31.230
a four-point flip. UMass, three and a half. Toledo, three points.
461
00:27:31.289 --> 00:27:33.490
Texas State, four points.
462
00:27:33.799 --> 00:27:35.299
No, three points. Three points, sorry.
463
00:27:36.359 --> 00:27:40.119
Georgia Southern, that one flipped. Like, the ones that are
464
00:27:40.160 --> 00:27:45.779
moving toward the dog, Wyoming, Buffalo, and San Jose State. Um....
465
00:27:47.480 --> 00:27:51.279
Let's look at some of these lottery tickets. And this
466
00:27:51.299 --> 00:27:52.960
is just a fun one to kind of close this out, right?
467
00:27:53.980 --> 00:27:56.509
The big money, money line dogs. Charlotte plus 850 with
468
00:27:56.529 --> 00:27:59.349
a 97% of the money line money. Middle Tennessee plus 800,
469
00:27:59.319 --> 00:28:01.930
94% of the money. UTEP plus 1100, 83%.
470
00:28:01.930 --> 00:28:02.970
Rutgers plus 1200, half of the money on 8% of
471
00:28:02.990 --> 00:28:03.210
the bets.
472
00:28:16.880 --> 00:28:20.200
On a dog that big, I guess one guy with
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00:28:20.240 --> 00:28:23.440
a strong opinion and paycheck can swing those numbers. So
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00:28:23.680 --> 00:28:27.180
I feel like that's entertainment, not a signal. Whoever it is,
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00:28:27.240 --> 00:28:32.019
I'm rooting for them. I know that much. I know
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00:28:32.039 --> 00:28:38.960
that much. All right, let's do our watch guide right quick. Friday,
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00:28:38.960 --> 00:28:42.029
6 p.m. Central, Liberty and Delaware on CBS Sports Network.
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00:28:42.750 --> 00:28:46.539
That's right alongside Pitt at Virginia Tech. 8 o'clock, Northwestern
479
00:28:46.799 --> 00:28:49.269
and Penn State on Fox. It's the opening of the
480
00:28:50.710 --> 00:28:53.569
new Ryan Field in Evanston. So go ahead and check
481
00:28:53.609 --> 00:28:57.529
that out. Saturday, noon window, Navy at Air Force on CBS.
482
00:28:58.170 --> 00:29:01.240
Also at noon, you've got Boston College at SMU on
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00:29:01.259 --> 00:29:09.740
the CW. Stanford at Wake on ACC Network. I don't
484
00:29:09.759 --> 00:29:11.160
know of any others that matter there.
485
00:29:11.240 --> 00:29:11.740
Saturday, 3.30 window.
486
00:29:14.130 --> 00:29:20.470
This is intriguing. The 330 window has got some interesting stuff.
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00:29:23.890 --> 00:29:25.740
That 11 a.m. slide is going to be just completely
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00:29:25.779 --> 00:29:34.440
hammered by Alabama and Mississippi State. Ohio State, Iowa is
489
00:29:34.460 --> 00:29:39.579
going to be awesome. Miami-Clemson, Like, that's where we're at.
490
00:29:40.930 --> 00:29:47.019
I can't do this watch guide right now. It's going
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00:29:47.039 --> 00:29:48.599
to be a weird week. This is a fun week.
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00:29:48.660 --> 00:29:55.480
Next week is going to be absolutely friggin' loaded. Absolutely loaded. Alright.
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00:29:56.180 --> 00:29:58.559
I've taken enough of your time. You guys have been fantastic.
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00:29:59.640 --> 00:30:00.559
This has been about 30 minutes.
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00:30:01.319 --> 00:30:01.460
And.
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00:30:02.269 --> 00:30:04.450
I enjoy doing these extra audio pods. I mean, these
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00:30:04.470 --> 00:30:10.460
things are fun. These are pretty awesome. Remember for this week,
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00:30:11.180 --> 00:30:13.599
public bets the over, money bets the under. So let's
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00:30:13.619 --> 00:30:16.839
keep an eye on how those things end up. Make
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00:30:16.880 --> 00:30:20.000
sure to shop your lines because the books move. You
501
00:30:20.019 --> 00:30:22.309
can always try and find a better line somewhere else.
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00:30:23.049 --> 00:30:29.069
Use one of these betting apps. write BetStamp or Pickett
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00:30:29.390 --> 00:30:32.059
or whatever that you can find. Action Network does them
504
00:30:32.160 --> 00:30:36.660
if you're looking on the web. Look for the best
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00:30:36.720 --> 00:30:37.640
line with the best odds.
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00:30:38.900 --> 00:30:40.480
That's what you're doing. All right.
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00:30:41.960 --> 00:30:44.539
We're going to get out of here. Thank you for listening.
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00:30:44.579 --> 00:30:46.700
Thank you for subscribing. Thank you for supporting the show.
509
00:30:48.369 --> 00:30:49.990
It's been a very long week. Hopefully you all caught
510
00:30:50.029 --> 00:30:54.910
me on VSYN with Dustin on Wednesday night. Gave out
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00:30:54.930 --> 00:30:56.289
a couple of plays that I really like.
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00:30:57.470 --> 00:30:59.769
We'll see what happens. All right. Take care of yourself.
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00:31:00.009 --> 00:31:00.609
Take care of each other.
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00:31:00.650 --> 00:31:03.660
God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
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00:31:03.680 --> 00:31:08.039
cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
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00:31:08.420 --> 00:31:10.369
Subscribe, leave a review or comment.
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00:31:10.809 --> 00:31:14.329
Follow at GaryWCE on X and check out the web store.