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Do midterm elections crash markets? Across the 19 midterms since 1950, the S&P 500 was up about 14% on average one year after the vote, and it gained in 14 of 19 cycles over the two weeks around the vote. Bitcoin did drop after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms, but each time it was still in a bear trend, and 2022's leg down was mostly FTX. This time it's already above the bull market support band, so I'm treating any November dip toward the 50-week EMA near $78,000 as one to buy, with $75,000 as the line I don't expect to break. Also on the stream: BlackRock's buffered Bitcoin ETF filing, IBIT's $665 million inflow day, JPMorgan's 10% long-term Bitcoin return assumption, and why the Fed pauses on October 28.
Chapters:
(00:00) Midterm Elections in Two Weeks
(04:07) BlackRock Files a Buffered Bitcoin ETF
(07:06) Biggest IBIT Inflow of the Year
(08:52) JPMorgan Puts Bitcoin in Its Return Assumptions
(11:00) OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs, Nasdaq and SOX
(14:45) The Fed on October 28: Pause, Not Hike
(19:03) Bull or Bear: Pick a Side
(22:15) Bitcoin Levels: 50-Week EMA and SMA
(25:46) Midterm Odds and the Clarity Act
(31:54) Bitcoin Around Past Midterms
(39:44) The Four-Year Cycle Is Not a Calendar
(46:11) Q&A: Is the Low In?
(48:41) Q&A: Buying the 50-Week EMA vs SMA
(51:34) S&P 500 Across 19 Midterms
(57:31) What I'm Doing Into the Midterms
(1:02:51) Q&A: When to Rotate Alts Into Bitcoin
(1:11:52) Q&A: Narratives Move Every Market Cap
(1:13:40) Q&A: Arbitrum and Altcoin Charts
(1:16:22) Q&A: Gaming Coins
(1:18:04) Q&A: My Holdings and Meme Trades
