WEBVTT
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Do I mom or not?
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Pete.
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This is a rare, this is a rare Barbie.
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This is my this is my geopolitical tea.
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What's going on?
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What's good?
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I didn't even do it today.
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I ran this thing on Claude yesterday, and I basically said the same thing every single day for 150 streams, which is that we have a lot to talk about today.
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I've said it every day for 150 fucking streams.
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Guys, I think we're just edging.
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I don't know about edging is the right word to use, but we're basically just waiting at stalemate until what happens on market close on Friday.
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The market isn't real until it's closed on Friday, straight up.
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Like nothing is real until that happens.
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We sort of have a main topic of the stream that it's hard to let it be anything else because yeah, I mean, we're in the middle of war and it's just not stopping.
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Uh, is anyone surprised that Israeli News Network 12 announcing a ceasefire is not true?
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Shocker, right?
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That's a big one, huh?
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I mean, somebody lost money on that at this point, don't even really know what to say.
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I have a bunch of things I want to talk about today.
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I have a couple like rants that I want to get into at the beginning.
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First and foremost, you paid for understanding things better than other people.
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This has nothing to do with what I'm about to say, but it's Flood, and Flood makes me think of hyperliquid.
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I am fully convinced at this point that if there is another mass onboarding event on chain, it's bro, it's perps.
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It is going to be perpetual futures on the number one venue to trade all assets with one unified balance, the house of finance, hyperliquid.
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I remember using every single product that's basically ever come out in crypto ever.
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Every time I made money, every time I lost money.
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I remember everything I've ever done with crypto.
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And there has just never like for an from an onboarding perspective and from a new game perspective, hyperliquid perps is just unreal.
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I'm sorry.
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It's unreal.
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In the last two months, I've longed Bitcoin, closed it, longed Tesla on the SpaceX IPO, closed it, longed Palantir because we were going to war, closed it, longed Bitcoin, closed the Bitcoin long, longed crude oil, realized crude oil sucks because they can export ban, closed it, longed Brent Oil, closed it because the US government is manipulating the order books, and then longed tau because Jason Kalakanis is shielding it.
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It is just so good.
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It wasn't long ago if you wanted to uh trade tau.
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Your bottleneck to trading tau was I don't have money on blank chain.
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My money is on base, I gotta get my money onto ETH Mainnet, I gotta get my money onto Solana, I gotta get my money onto this other platform.
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There is an argument to be made that wow, maybe everything in crypto was just a vehicle to tokenize TradFi assets, and maybe that's true.
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But man, even if that is true, at least you got a beautiful trading experience out of it.
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This is a mobile app that was pretty.
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Like, we're not that far away from there being like many millions of users on trading perps.
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It's just a better vehicle.
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Usually I say we'll get to the important stuff in a minute, but this is actually the most important, important part of the whole stream.
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I got my tax numbers back, and I know I said this before, but it didn't really like hit me at first when I got my taxes number because you you know you ever like been told something so bad that you just crack humor about it.
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Like I I told Malcolm how bad it was, and he was more upset than I was.
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I was just I was just trolling.
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I'm like, I'm like flexing it, like how this this is how much I owe in taxes.
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I'm flexing how much I owe in taxes, I'm telling people like it was funny and cute, and I got some good like flirt jokes off with it for sure.
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Got a couple like pickup lines with it, but it kind of like really hit me like okay, yo, I actually owe uh this much money in taxes.
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I'm genuinely at a loss for words on the taxes dilemma because I owe 54% of everything that I've made.
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That's my that's my tax bracket.
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And so it's more than half.
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And so if you don't do math, that means 46% of what you made you keep.
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I I'll just be real.
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I definitely haven't lived my last year as if I only am retaining 46% of everything I've made.
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Am I like wrong to say that?
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Like, I definitely haven't been moving as if I only have 46% of my PL for the last, you know.
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I mean, is that like fair to say?
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Call that out.
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Like, ah, definitely like, you know, do we really need that bottle of Dawn?
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Probably not.
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Or like, did I really need to like buy that fourth bracelet from Urman?
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Like, probably not.
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And so what I've learned, and I want to make something very clear, and this is gonna be a good clip.
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So clip this and clip it well.
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I'm gonna tweet this.
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Did I really have to promise that Aruba vacation?
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Like, no, San Diego probably would have worked just fine.
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It was two hours away.
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We could get there by car.
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You know, did I do we really have to go to Aruba?
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No, we could have just gone to like Orange County, and it would have been if we went to Orange County, I would have hated her just as much as I did in the Bahamas, you know?
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I would have been just as miserable in Orange County as I was in in Turks.
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I would have been equally miserable.
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We would have fought the same amount.
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It wouldn't have been worse.
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I don't know about y'all, what your goals are, but I'm trying to get fucking rich.
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I told you guys that I'm not gonna get off the stream until I have at least like, I don't know, 10 M's.
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I'm trying, I don't know what y'all are like here to do, but I'm I'm I want to get rich, I want to get smart.
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And I was really doing the math on how much money you need to make in a world where you owe 54% to the government.
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And then I started doing the math on if you don't get it from investing, like Angel Investing, J.
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Cal Uber, and you don't sell a company and you don't be employee number like four move to say it doesn't hate you, first time chatter, and you don't like get equity and some company that like goes public, and you do it as a full-time trader.
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And what I deducted is that if you are a full-time trader, and I mean your primary income is trading, and you live in New York City or you live in the great state of California, you are either the fucking GOAT, a complete LARP, or some combination of both, and you're not paying taxes.
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Straight up.
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Okay, and I get the Puerto Rico thing now.
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I get it.
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I get the Puerto Rico thing now.
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This taxes thing is like a real thorn in my side.
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It really does blow.
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Like I hate to be here and complain it, but I'm totally in the camp of just make more money.
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This is by stance.
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You gotta just make more money.
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The lifestyle's worth it, New York's worth it.
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You gotta just make more money.
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And so we're gonna have to like, we're gonna have to get smart with some tax stuff.
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We're gonna do we're gonna do a tax stream on Friday.
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I'm sorry.
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We're gonna do a tax stream on Friday.
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We just are.
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Every year I crush up my taxes, and everyone does this.
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Oh, don't you have an LLC?
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Oh, don't you have a wealth manager?
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What about an LLC?
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Dude, get an LLC.
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There's no fucking LLC that's gonna save you from 54% capital gains.
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Okay, there's no LLC that's gonna save you from that.
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There's no method, there's no write-off, there's no trust fund, there's no Cayman Islands offshore wealth account, nothing.
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There's no trust, this, nothing.
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Capital gains are capital fucking gains.
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And the most people that are telling you that you can loop capital gains don't have any capital gains.
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Okay, and as somebody with capital gains, I can tell you that there's no method, there's absolutely no method.
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And so we're gonna do a tax stream on Friday because it's important.
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I gotta fucking pay him.
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We'll rant about this later, but it's my favorite tweet of the day.
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I added it.
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There's fuck you money, but then there's fuck you skills.
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You can be so skilled that you actually don't have to care about what people think.
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You'll be fine no matter what.
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Chat, we are building fuck you skills.
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That's what I want to build.
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Fuck you, money is sick.
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Fuck you assets are really cool, but we're building fuck you skills.
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If you really think about this, being able to trade, think about this for a second.
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One more rant.
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Think about this for a second.
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Being able to trade is actually the ultimate fuck you skill.
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Because if you can trade and trade well, I didn't it took me a while to realize this.
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I was interested in trading before I decided I wanted to get good at trading.
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If you can trade, you actually can say and do whatever you want, and you never have to be employable, ever.
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At the very least, it's like the goaded backup.
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Because in theory, if you could trade, and I mean if you can really trade, you don't ever have to answer to anybody.
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Ever.
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You could believe what you want to believe, you could think what you want to think, you can say what you want to say, you can do what you want to do, and you're not responsible for any brand image, any per perceptions.
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Obviously, easier said than done.
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In theory, chat.
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In theory, is that even in a world where the market goes to shit, if you can trade, you could still trade that.
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The thing about trading is it's in these skills.
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Probably the best two skills ever is like being an electrician or like a welder and knowing how to trade.
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Those are the two.
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Being really good at meme scope and being a plumber are the two most goaded skills of all time because you're forever needed.
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And so I don't know.
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I'm just throwing it out there.
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Anyone ever read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator?
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Be honest.
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You ever read it?
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Fantastic book.
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I just realized I'm just obsessed with like ball knowledge.
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I just like lord.
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I want to hear about people trading.
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It's like so awesome.
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The craziest thing about Reminiscence of a Stock Operator is that it's the same market.
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It's the same market, nothing changed.
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Jesse Livermore was trading markets in like 1907 that act the exact same way as what we're trading right now.
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And half the book is about governments manipulating the market, price action being fake, nothing being real, manipulation this, manipulation that the word manipulation and tips, tips is written in that book like 500 times.
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It's the same fucking game.
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Like you would imagine it looks different when there was when there was pink slips, then when there was hand signals, then when there was websites, then when there was Robin Hood, then when there was fucking IKBR, any of these.
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Bro, he was multi-walleting.
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Yes, they had multi-wallets.
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1909 when they were he was pumping Pacific Steel Co.
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They were multi-walleting.
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It doesn't change.
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If you can trade, you could you could you could spawn.
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You could you could throw me in any era, and I have value.
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You could throw me in.
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I've spoken about this many times.
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You could throw me in the woolly mammoth era, and I'm not gonna be killing saber-tooth tigers, but I'm bartering salt for meat, bro.
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I I just you could throw me any era that we've ever lived through, and I'm on that, I'm on that boat, 1492, Columbus sailed ocean blue, and I'm in the I'm I'm chopping up deals in the in the in the bottom decks.
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You could throw me in the barter era at any any era ever.
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And they're trading, they're trading, bro.
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The economy used to be a barter economy.
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One of the things I want to do a stream on with the personal finance, I actually think this is a sick topic.
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On what do you do when you make 100k for the first time?
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Nobody talks about this.
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What do you do when you make a when you bink 100k on a trade for the first time?
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Or you bink 10k on a trade for the first time?
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What do you actually do with it?
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I'm gonna be honest, I have made like okay, I don't want to like dox my wallets and you know, but dude, I've made 100k on a trade like a lot of times, honestly.
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I've made 100k on a trade a lot of times, and every single time I just size heavier into the next trade.
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Like, the first time I made 100k on a trade, I sold it.
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We went to it's actually exactly what happened.
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The first time I made 100k on a trade, we went to David Yurman, then the club, and then I sized five times heavier than I should on my next trade.
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Like, just like slid the leverage up on the next trade is like exactly what I did the first time I made a k in a trade.
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It was sick, it was fun.
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Knock them was there.
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We all went to Yerman.
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I got a fucking, I don't know, spent like 3k on a fucking necklace I never wear.
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Could have been worse.
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And you just size heavier on the next trade.
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We actually never really talk about what you do with it.
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Because like if you turn 10k to 100, your next trade should not be with like 75k.
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Or if you turn$100 into$1,000, your next trade should not be with$800.
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Like, this is the this is actually where we get lost in the sauce.
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So basically where we're at, we're gonna spend as little time as possible on the war today.
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I don't know about as possible, but whatever.
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There was an announcement that came out yesterday from Israelia News Network 12.
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And they're like, there's a ceasefire, and here are the terms, and it's like a 15-step plan, and it's like Iran will never have nukes, Iran will open the strait, Iran will never close the strait again, Iran will never have nukes, Iran will never build a nuclear power plant, Iran will surrender all their nuclear capabilities, Iran will say sorry, Iran will apologize, Iran will never do anything mean to us again, Iran will pay us sanctions, and Iran has agreed to the terms, and it was like, what?
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What are you talking about?
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What what is this Israeli news network?
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No Trump, no Hegseth, nothing.
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It was fucking sus.
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Oil dumps on it, of course, because that's just like how oil is trades, doesn't care.
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And it was kind of obviously fake.
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And so this came out today.
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Iran has officially rejected the US peace proposal and sets five conditions to end the war.
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Iran's condition includes immediate end to attacks and assassination, assassinations on Iran.
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Decent starting point, I would say.
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Establishment of concrete guarantees against future US attacks, clear determination and guaranteed payment for war damages.
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By the way, I'm not gonna say this is what I predicted, but I'm just saying we went over what could happen from here.
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I said that I added this reparations, international recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the war across all fronts, including for all Iranian proxies in the region.
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The one thing I don't understand, by the way, is still to this day is what the fuck is Saudi Arabia doing, bro?
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I still don't get it.
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Really, I really don't get it.
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Why is this Iran's Strait of Hormuz?
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What about everybody else?
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You gotta get in and out.
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Pakistan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia.
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What is everybody else doing?
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It's crazy.
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I don't know.
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But every time I read this update, I look at the map and I'm like, how is that a thing?
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Why does it work like that?
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And so Saudi Arabia has water on the other side of their country they use, or no?
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I have no idea.
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Oh, well, I've never seen this view before.
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The Red Sea.
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Nice one, Vibblad.
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Word.
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The Red Sea.
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Cool.
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I thought you couldn't own water.
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Well, here's where we're at.
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So Iran says no negotiations will take place until their five conditions are met.
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Iran also says it will end the war at a time of its own choosing, and only if the conditions it has set are fulfilled.
00:15:00.799 --> 00:15:04.320
Which obviously the US is not gonna be like, okay, fulfilling these.
00:15:04.960 --> 00:15:10.720
And so Iran said it has reviewed the US peace plan proposal and it considers the ask to be excessive.
00:15:10.879 --> 00:15:15.440
Iran also says it will not allow President Trump to dictate the timing of the end of the war.
00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:18.879
By the way, when this thing started, it was proposed as a 72-hour war.
00:15:19.039 --> 00:15:22.080
72 hours, maybe a week, and the whole thing is done.
00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:25.200
Here we are on March 25th.
00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:28.480
And on Saturday, it will be officially a month.
00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:29.840
One month.
00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:31.360
Straight still closed.
00:15:31.519 --> 00:15:36.000
And this announcement came out, which is Iran building up defenses of Karg Island to protect against potential U.S.
00:15:36.159 --> 00:15:37.600
ground attack.
00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:45.120
Iran is fortifying Karg Island with mines and air defenses against potential US military seizure.
00:15:45.360 --> 00:15:53.440
Karg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, critical to global energy markets.
00:15:53.600 --> 00:15:55.120
And then the final, yeah.
00:15:55.440 --> 00:16:08.960
April 20, 2026, the US Army is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42 and eliminating waiver requirements for a single conviction of possession for marijuana.
00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:10.240
They want LeBron.
00:16:10.559 --> 00:16:11.679
And so I don't know.
00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:18.320
Apparently, they do this a lot, but this is two steps away from a draft, and I'm not being hyperbolic.
00:16:18.799 --> 00:16:21.039
I don't really know how this draft stuff works.
00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:22.639
I'm not there yet, by the way.
00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:25.840
I'm not like info'd about panic mode.
00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:27.600
I'm not even they want Aiden Holloway.
00:16:27.759 --> 00:16:29.200
Chat, who here's 42?
00:16:29.279 --> 00:16:33.039
Is anyone here 42 that just had like the worst announcement you've ever heard?
00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:35.759
Second time you've had Bron and Bronny in the same draft.
00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:36.559
That's fucked.
00:16:36.960 --> 00:16:38.320
It's actually not funny.
00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:40.639
Yeah, they want they raised it to 42.
00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:42.000
They want they want Rasmer.
00:16:42.159 --> 00:16:45.600
That is where we mostly are with war updates.
00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:47.200
Nothing's really happened.
00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:51.440
I mean, my general stance on this is the same that it was yesterday.
00:16:51.759 --> 00:16:53.279
Okay, this is actually very interesting.
00:16:53.519 --> 00:16:54.240
VCX.
00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:55.200
Does anyone know what this is?
00:16:55.279 --> 00:17:00.080
Because I didn't until like 12 hours ago, but I do now, and it's it's uh pretty wild what's happening.
00:17:00.159 --> 00:17:01.200
Does anyone know what VCX is?
00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:01.679
Yes or no?
00:17:01.919 --> 00:17:03.200
Good amount, decent amount.
00:17:03.440 --> 00:17:17.279
VCX is this publicly traded fund, stands for the fundraise innovation fund that has maybe it's made up of 20% of anthropic and 10% open AI or something like this.
00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:26.640
And it's a proxy to get exposure to these AI labs, and it is getting bid to the literal fucking heavens right now.
00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:28.319
It is getting bid.
00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:35.039
Everyone wants to talk about oh, when SpaceX IPOs or when open AI IPOs or when anthropic IPOs, it's over.
00:17:35.119 --> 00:17:36.240
This thing is getting bid.
00:17:36.559 --> 00:17:40.160
There's literally not going to be a fucking tomorrow.
00:17:40.400 --> 00:17:54.880
And so Citrini makes this post and he says, I have a working theory that when the market gets choppy, it concentrates speculative behavior into just a few tickers and causes a kind of paradoxical squeeze in a very select memes versus broad memes.
00:17:55.440 --> 00:18:08.160
For example, back in 2022, while the index was down like 20% year to date, a scam IPO from Hong Kong trading under the ticker HKD went from 200 mil to having a larger market cap than ExxonMobil.
00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:15.200
Started out as a low float shenanigans, but became the last refuge for meme stock traders searching for anything that would still go up.
00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:20.960
Anyway, here's a chart of VCX, and it's up ungodly amounts.
00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:32.960
And so his take is basically like at the end of a cycle when we're low liquidity, you rotate further and further and further and further and further into anything that you can scam rip with a hotball of money as high as possible, and then boom, what happens after 2023?
00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:38.079
We get rate rate hikes, crazy bear market, everything dies, right?
00:18:38.720 --> 00:18:45.680
And so here's what it is is uh it's anthropic mini IPO is unfolding in front of you, and you missed a 15x return.
00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:50.960
The stock named VCX by fund rates went up 1500 in five days.
00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:59.920
It holds 21 of anthropic, 10 of open AI, 18 of Databricks, 7 made up of Android, and 5% of SpaceX.
00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:04.880
It has a nav net asset value of$19 per share.
00:19:05.039 --> 00:19:06.640
This morning trade at$312.
00:19:06.960 --> 00:19:13.440
That means the market is valuing a$650 million fund at$5.4 billion.
00:19:14.400 --> 00:19:16.160
Just absolutely disgusting.
00:19:16.319 --> 00:19:19.119
They're doing it because the most important companies built right now refuse to go public.
00:19:19.279 --> 00:19:20.160
Nobody can get exposure.
00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:25.759
Pre-IPO perks are like kind of a gimmick, and there's no way to get access to these companies.
00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:28.559
And so people are bidding this thing up ridiculous, right?
00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:32.720
Because they want anthropic, they want OP open AI, they want Databricks, they want Andrew.
00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:35.920
But it's getting euphoric, really, for no reason.
00:19:36.079 --> 00:19:42.960
Um, because there's some like they're not the only company that has has exposure, and their nav premium is so ridiculous.
00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:49.200
And so Tom Lee tweets VCX, which has a stake in open AI and Anthropic, trades at 25x MNAV.
00:19:49.279 --> 00:19:49.920
I think this is about right.
00:19:50.079 --> 00:19:50.799
25x.
00:19:50.880 --> 00:19:53.200
I thought it was more like 10, but we're saying 25 here.
00:19:53.279 --> 00:19:54.480
It's changing, obviously.
00:19:54.799 --> 00:20:05.279
Orbs, which by the way, is the company that makes the orbs for WorldCoin, is that third is 30% open AI and trades at 1x mnav.
00:20:05.599 --> 00:20:08.880
30% of this company is open AI and it trades at 1x mnav.
00:20:09.279 --> 00:20:12.640
Why is it not getting the premium?
00:20:12.799 --> 00:20:13.200
I don't know.
00:20:13.359 --> 00:20:15.359
Does this mean there's an opportunity here?
00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:19.200
Does this mean there's crazy upside in orbs?
00:20:19.359 --> 00:20:20.960
It could potentially mean that.
00:20:21.119 --> 00:20:27.119
Like, do we just go down and index every company that has exposure and what mnav they're trading at with enthropic and open AI?
00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:29.119
Like, maybe not this, is it?
00:20:29.440 --> 00:20:30.079
Oh, wait, wait, wait.
00:20:30.319 --> 00:20:31.279
It is this Aco.
00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:33.039
Oh, this is down so bad.
00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:34.160
Oh my god.
00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:37.200
Oh god, this is done so bad.
00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:39.440
But it's getting a bit.
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:42.720
I was at the mall and they were doing a pop-up where you get to get your eye scanned by the orb.
00:20:42.799 --> 00:20:43.200
How much?
00:20:43.359 --> 00:20:44.240
How much is this up?
00:20:44.480 --> 00:20:45.759
Wow, it's up a good amount though.
00:20:46.000 --> 00:20:47.279
It was like 100% at the top.
00:20:47.680 --> 00:20:48.319
Interesting.
00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:50.720
So why is it not getting the premium?
00:20:50.799 --> 00:20:52.079
I don't really know.
00:20:52.880 --> 00:21:00.240
Um but thing is BCX is getting just the most ridiculous bid of all time.
00:21:00.559 --> 00:21:01.200
Look at this thing.
00:21:01.279 --> 00:21:02.319
It's just getting look at this.
00:21:02.480 --> 00:21:03.440
Look at this fucking.
00:21:03.599 --> 00:21:04.240
We could have bought.
00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:05.440
I didn't even know this was a thing.
00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:06.559
We could have bought this.
00:21:06.720 --> 00:21:09.359
This is on Thursday last week.
00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:12.480
It's up 600% just from that alone.
00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:13.519
Yeah, this is what I want.
00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:20.319
So people are buying this fun VCX at these levels to buy anthropic at a 4.94 trillion dollar valuation.
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:24.079
That's what you're paying for the anthropic exposure inside VCX at current prices.
00:21:24.160 --> 00:21:26.559
I think Anthropic's last round was at like 400.
00:21:26.640 --> 00:21:29.599
Uh the reported secondaries are going for 600 billion.
00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:36.799
I get that people want real exposure, these private names, but you can buy Amazon in real business and get 15% exposure to anthropic.
00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:40.880
I mean, it's just in fucking insane what people are paying.
00:21:40.960 --> 00:21:46.240
And so, yeah, Amazon stock gives you more anthropic exposure per dollar than VCX does right now.
00:21:46.319 --> 00:21:48.720
And Amazon is actually a behemoth.
00:21:49.200 --> 00:21:52.160
Microsoft gives you 7x more open AI exposure.
00:21:52.319 --> 00:21:53.599
You already have access to these companies.
00:21:53.680 --> 00:21:58.559
Buying VCX is just paying a 16x premium because you didn't do research.
00:21:58.720 --> 00:21:59.759
And so there's kind of a couple.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:00.880
Boys, look at this.
00:22:00.960 --> 00:22:01.920
There's two sides of the coin.
00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:07.440
One side of the coin is that oh my god, we're pumping the latest stage meme coins possible.
00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:08.640
It's over.
00:22:09.200 --> 00:22:15.599
The second is that maybe open AI IPOing at a trillion dollars is not the top.
00:22:15.839 --> 00:22:26.559
Maybe Enthropic gets 600 bill if they IPO'd there when people are paying almost 5 trillion to get exposure to it to VCX has room to run when it IPOs.
00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:36.319
Maybe SpaceX when it IPOs at a trillion dollars and some change has room to run because people are paying such a ridiculous premium for these companies.
00:22:36.480 --> 00:22:39.200
And so who knows what happens here.
00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:49.359
But how this plays out, I think, is very telling to, or at least some level of signal to what's gonna happen in the public markets when these private companies start going public.
00:22:49.599 --> 00:23:00.240
The second thing that happened in the AI world is Sora, the AI TikTok clone short form video from OpenAI has shut down.
00:23:00.799 --> 00:23:03.039
And I don't know, did this come out of nowhere?
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:05.839
I never did anyone here use Sora, yes or no?
00:23:06.000 --> 00:23:12.640
They announced we're saying goodbye to the Sora app to everyone who created with Sora, shared it, and built community around it.
00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:13.519
Thank you.
00:23:13.839 --> 00:23:19.279
What you made with Sora mattered, it absolutely did not matter.
00:23:19.440 --> 00:23:21.359
Nothing you made with it mattered.
00:23:21.680 --> 00:23:23.519
And we know this news is disappointing.
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:32.319
We'll share more soon, including timelines for the app and API and details on preserving your work.
00:23:33.200 --> 00:23:35.200
And so this is the announcement.
00:23:35.279 --> 00:23:36.799
I did it come out of nowhere.
00:23:36.880 --> 00:23:37.759
I don't know.
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:39.200
I've never really used it.
00:23:39.359 --> 00:23:44.160
I actually never used it once, and I've never really seen people use it, but it's significant for a couple reasons.
00:23:44.240 --> 00:23:56.319
Number one is that Disney had planned to invest a billion dollars into the company and let Sora have access to AI generate videos of characters from Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars.
00:23:56.400 --> 00:24:00.480
There were some massive investments planned going into Sora.
00:24:00.880 --> 00:24:05.359
Disney's been a terrible performing stock, but it's down the announcement was yesterday.
00:24:05.759 --> 00:24:09.119
It's down like at least a couple percent, three, four percent.
00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:11.039
Maybe it was gonna go down anyways.
00:24:11.279 --> 00:24:22.480
And second is that the video scene for AI is so competitive, and arguably, or maybe definitively, Chinese company C Dance is just winning.
00:24:22.640 --> 00:24:24.960
So Uti tweets everyone is wrong about why Sora is canceled.
00:24:25.039 --> 00:24:26.480
Sora 2 is last gen tech.
00:24:26.640 --> 00:24:30.640
C Dance 2 is 10x better and will be rolled out in the US in the next few days.
00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:34.480
Trained on TikTok, which has more video data than anyone else on Earth.
00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:36.319
Open AI cannot compete.
00:24:36.559 --> 00:24:44.319
The brute reality of the situation is that the United States has basically given up on winning AI video against China.
00:24:44.480 --> 00:24:46.799
Like China has just definitively won.
00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:51.920
C dance is the leading model out of China, and it is just incredible.
00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:55.920
They they've just they are just winning on video, and we're kind of giving up.
00:24:56.079 --> 00:25:01.039
And so there's always this conversation on, you know, is China just stealing American AI?
00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:18.160
And there's a lot of arguments as to why it is happening, but a counterpoint to they're not doing it is they've just won, they're winning video, they are winning video, definitively winning video, and this Sora announcement, I think, is further proof.
00:25:18.319 --> 00:25:21.920
And so a lot of people are tweeting the first domino to fall in the AI bubble.
00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:23.599
I don't exactly know if that's true.
00:25:23.759 --> 00:25:31.599
I think what is definitely true is that they realized that this product is just not where they're gonna make any money.
00:25:31.680 --> 00:25:34.640
Okay, and so I did this, I did some math, yeah, on this math equation.
00:25:34.799 --> 00:25:46.720
Um, API pricing for Sora 2,$10 a second video at$720p,$30 a second at pro and$50 or uh excuse, let me start over.
00:25:46.960 --> 00:25:53.359
10 cents a second at$7.20p, 30 cents a second at pro and 50 cents a second at full resolution.
00:25:53.680 --> 00:25:58.880
A 10 second video costs open AI roughly one to five dollars in raw compute.
00:25:59.119 --> 00:26:02.079
Chat GPT Plus gives you 50 videos a month for$20.
00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:09.200
That's 40 cents a video to the user, but costing open AI one to five dollars per video in compute.
00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:17.359
So a power user making 50 videos a month is generating$50 to$250 in compute cost on a$20 subscription.
00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:22.799
The pro plan$200 a month for$500 videos is even worth is is even worse.
00:26:22.960 --> 00:26:30.720
500 videos times one to five dollars per video is five hundred to twenty five hundred dollars a month in compute for two hundred dollars in revenue.
00:26:30.880 --> 00:26:36.079
And so the reality situation is they were getting absolutely torched on compute cost.
00:26:36.319 --> 00:26:40.799
Video is intensive and it's expensive, and nobody really cared about the product.
00:26:40.960 --> 00:26:44.240
I don't really think anyone cared about the product, no one was using it.
00:26:44.480 --> 00:26:51.680
There's better models that are cheaper, and they're just I don't know, they're dialing in, like they're just not gonna win on uh on on video.
00:26:52.160 --> 00:26:57.680
It was it's I don't know, it was kind of like a wild announcement, but I I guess it wasn't crazy or the most unexpected.
00:26:58.480 --> 00:26:59.119
Let's see.
00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:00.559
This is such a good one.
00:27:00.880 --> 00:27:02.000
Sora tribute!
00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:03.119
Are you kidding me?
00:27:03.519 --> 00:27:06.319
Drop it, drop the gun, give me that hey, let go.
00:27:07.519 --> 00:27:09.599
There was some good, it was pretty good if a day.
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:10.319
Love you guys.
00:27:10.400 --> 00:27:12.960
We're gonna have a fun, we're gonna have a sick, a smart stream tomorrow.
00:27:13.039 --> 00:27:14.400
We're gonna get better, we're gonna get smarter.
00:27:14.480 --> 00:27:14.960
That's the only thing.
00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:16.160
We're skill maxing, okay?
00:27:16.240 --> 00:27:17.920
The money comes when you're fucking lit.
00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:18.880
The money comes later.
00:27:18.960 --> 00:27:19.680
We're skill maxing.
00:27:19.839 --> 00:27:20.640
Baka Flacka.
00:27:20.799 --> 00:27:21.039
That's love.
00:27:21.119 --> 00:27:21.920
That's a good show today.
00:27:22.319 --> 00:27:22.799
I enjoyed it.
00:00:09.119 --> 00:00:10.240
Do I mom or not?
00:00:10.480 --> 00:00:10.800
Pete.
00:00:11.119 --> 00:00:13.359
This is a rare, this is a rare Barbie.
00:00:13.519 --> 00:00:15.439
This is my this is my geopolitical tea.
00:00:15.599 --> 00:00:16.160
What's going on?
00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:17.440
What's good?
00:00:18.079 --> 00:00:19.280
I didn't even do it today.
00:00:20.079 --> 00:00:26.960
I ran this thing on Claude yesterday, and I basically said the same thing every single day for 150 streams, which is that we have a lot to talk about today.
00:00:27.039 --> 00:00:29.600
I've said it every day for 150 fucking streams.
00:00:29.760 --> 00:00:31.440
Guys, I think we're just edging.
00:00:31.519 --> 00:00:38.880
I don't know about edging is the right word to use, but we're basically just waiting at stalemate until what happens on market close on Friday.
00:00:39.039 --> 00:00:42.960
The market isn't real until it's closed on Friday, straight up.
00:00:43.039 --> 00:00:44.640
Like nothing is real until that happens.
00:00:44.799 --> 00:00:53.759
We sort of have a main topic of the stream that it's hard to let it be anything else because yeah, I mean, we're in the middle of war and it's just not stopping.
00:00:53.920 --> 00:01:03.359
Uh, is anyone surprised that Israeli News Network 12 announcing a ceasefire is not true?
00:01:03.679 --> 00:01:04.560
Shocker, right?
00:01:04.640 --> 00:01:05.680
That's a big one, huh?
00:01:05.840 --> 00:01:10.319
I mean, somebody lost money on that at this point, don't even really know what to say.
00:01:10.480 --> 00:01:12.159
I have a bunch of things I want to talk about today.
00:01:12.239 --> 00:01:15.599
I have a couple like rants that I want to get into at the beginning.
00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:19.359
First and foremost, you paid for understanding things better than other people.
00:01:19.519 --> 00:01:23.359
This has nothing to do with what I'm about to say, but it's Flood, and Flood makes me think of hyperliquid.
00:01:23.439 --> 00:01:30.239
I am fully convinced at this point that if there is another mass onboarding event on chain, it's bro, it's perps.
00:01:30.719 --> 00:01:41.840
It is going to be perpetual futures on the number one venue to trade all assets with one unified balance, the house of finance, hyperliquid.
00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:46.879
I remember using every single product that's basically ever come out in crypto ever.
00:01:47.120 --> 00:01:49.359
Every time I made money, every time I lost money.
00:01:49.519 --> 00:01:52.159
I remember everything I've ever done with crypto.
00:01:52.319 --> 00:02:02.400
And there has just never like for an from an onboarding perspective and from a new game perspective, hyperliquid perps is just unreal.
00:02:02.560 --> 00:02:03.200
I'm sorry.
00:02:03.359 --> 00:02:04.159
It's unreal.
00:02:04.319 --> 00:02:30.719
In the last two months, I've longed Bitcoin, closed it, longed Tesla on the SpaceX IPO, closed it, longed Palantir because we were going to war, closed it, longed Bitcoin, closed the Bitcoin long, longed crude oil, realized crude oil sucks because they can export ban, closed it, longed Brent Oil, closed it because the US government is manipulating the order books, and then longed tau because Jason Kalakanis is shielding it.
00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:32.159
It is just so good.
00:02:32.319 --> 00:02:35.120
It wasn't long ago if you wanted to uh trade tau.
00:02:35.439 --> 00:02:40.639
Your bottleneck to trading tau was I don't have money on blank chain.
00:02:40.800 --> 00:02:49.199
My money is on base, I gotta get my money onto ETH Mainnet, I gotta get my money onto Solana, I gotta get my money onto this other platform.
00:02:49.439 --> 00:02:58.000
There is an argument to be made that wow, maybe everything in crypto was just a vehicle to tokenize TradFi assets, and maybe that's true.
00:02:58.240 --> 00:03:02.879
But man, even if that is true, at least you got a beautiful trading experience out of it.
00:03:03.120 --> 00:03:04.719
This is a mobile app that was pretty.
00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:09.520
Like, we're not that far away from there being like many millions of users on trading perps.
00:03:09.680 --> 00:03:10.960
It's just a better vehicle.
00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:15.599
Usually I say we'll get to the important stuff in a minute, but this is actually the most important, important part of the whole stream.
00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:28.080
I got my tax numbers back, and I know I said this before, but it didn't really like hit me at first when I got my taxes number because you you know you ever like been told something so bad that you just crack humor about it.
00:03:28.159 --> 00:03:31.759
Like I I told Malcolm how bad it was, and he was more upset than I was.
00:03:31.840 --> 00:03:33.120
I was just I was just trolling.
00:03:33.199 --> 00:03:36.719
I'm like, I'm like flexing it, like how this this is how much I owe in taxes.
00:03:36.800 --> 00:03:43.759
I'm flexing how much I owe in taxes, I'm telling people like it was funny and cute, and I got some good like flirt jokes off with it for sure.
00:03:43.919 --> 00:03:51.360
Got a couple like pickup lines with it, but it kind of like really hit me like okay, yo, I actually owe uh this much money in taxes.
00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:59.759
I'm genuinely at a loss for words on the taxes dilemma because I owe 54% of everything that I've made.
00:03:59.840 --> 00:04:01.439
That's my that's my tax bracket.
00:04:01.520 --> 00:04:03.039
And so it's more than half.
00:04:03.120 --> 00:04:07.840
And so if you don't do math, that means 46% of what you made you keep.
00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:09.120
I I'll just be real.
00:04:09.280 --> 00:04:15.280
I definitely haven't lived my last year as if I only am retaining 46% of everything I've made.
00:04:15.439 --> 00:04:16.800
Am I like wrong to say that?
00:04:16.879 --> 00:04:22.800
Like, I definitely haven't been moving as if I only have 46% of my PL for the last, you know.
00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:24.240
I mean, is that like fair to say?
00:04:24.399 --> 00:04:24.879
Call that out.
00:04:25.040 --> 00:04:28.959
Like, ah, definitely like, you know, do we really need that bottle of Dawn?
00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:29.920
Probably not.
00:04:30.079 --> 00:04:35.519
Or like, did I really need to like buy that fourth bracelet from Urman?
00:04:35.600 --> 00:04:36.639
Like, probably not.
00:04:36.879 --> 00:04:41.360
And so what I've learned, and I want to make something very clear, and this is gonna be a good clip.
00:04:41.519 --> 00:04:42.560
So clip this and clip it well.
00:04:42.639 --> 00:04:43.360
I'm gonna tweet this.
00:04:44.079 --> 00:04:46.800
Did I really have to promise that Aruba vacation?
00:04:46.959 --> 00:04:49.839
Like, no, San Diego probably would have worked just fine.
00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:50.879
It was two hours away.
00:04:50.959 --> 00:04:52.000
We could get there by car.
00:04:52.160 --> 00:04:54.720
You know, did I do we really have to go to Aruba?
00:04:54.879 --> 00:05:02.560
No, we could have just gone to like Orange County, and it would have been if we went to Orange County, I would have hated her just as much as I did in the Bahamas, you know?
00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:06.800
I would have been just as miserable in Orange County as I was in in Turks.
00:05:06.879 --> 00:05:08.160
I would have been equally miserable.
00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:09.920
We would have fought the same amount.
00:05:10.160 --> 00:05:11.040
It wouldn't have been worse.
00:05:11.120 --> 00:05:14.959
I don't know about y'all, what your goals are, but I'm trying to get fucking rich.
00:05:15.040 --> 00:05:19.920
I told you guys that I'm not gonna get off the stream until I have at least like, I don't know, 10 M's.
00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:24.160
I'm trying, I don't know what y'all are like here to do, but I'm I'm I want to get rich, I want to get smart.
00:05:24.319 --> 00:05:31.759
And I was really doing the math on how much money you need to make in a world where you owe 54% to the government.
00:05:31.839 --> 00:05:38.480
And then I started doing the math on if you don't get it from investing, like Angel Investing, J.
00:05:38.639 --> 00:05:55.759
Cal Uber, and you don't sell a company and you don't be employee number like four move to say it doesn't hate you, first time chatter, and you don't like get equity and some company that like goes public, and you do it as a full-time trader.
00:05:55.920 --> 00:06:15.040
And what I deducted is that if you are a full-time trader, and I mean your primary income is trading, and you live in New York City or you live in the great state of California, you are either the fucking GOAT, a complete LARP, or some combination of both, and you're not paying taxes.
00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:16.000
Straight up.
00:06:16.160 --> 00:06:18.480
Okay, and I get the Puerto Rico thing now.
00:06:18.560 --> 00:06:19.360
I get it.
00:06:19.600 --> 00:06:21.680
I get the Puerto Rico thing now.
00:06:21.839 --> 00:06:24.560
This taxes thing is like a real thorn in my side.
00:06:24.720 --> 00:06:25.680
It really does blow.
00:06:25.759 --> 00:06:31.040
Like I hate to be here and complain it, but I'm totally in the camp of just make more money.
00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:32.560
This is by stance.
00:06:32.720 --> 00:06:33.680
You gotta just make more money.
00:06:33.759 --> 00:06:36.000
The lifestyle's worth it, New York's worth it.
00:06:36.079 --> 00:06:37.199
You gotta just make more money.
00:06:37.360 --> 00:06:41.920
And so we're gonna have to like, we're gonna have to get smart with some tax stuff.
00:06:42.079 --> 00:06:43.920
We're gonna do we're gonna do a tax stream on Friday.
00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:44.319
I'm sorry.
00:06:44.480 --> 00:06:45.920
We're gonna do a tax stream on Friday.
00:06:46.160 --> 00:06:46.800
We just are.
00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:49.600
Every year I crush up my taxes, and everyone does this.
00:06:49.839 --> 00:06:52.399
Oh, don't you have an LLC?
00:06:53.120 --> 00:06:55.199
Oh, don't you have a wealth manager?
00:06:55.360 --> 00:06:56.399
What about an LLC?
00:06:56.480 --> 00:06:57.600
Dude, get an LLC.
00:06:57.680 --> 00:07:03.199
There's no fucking LLC that's gonna save you from 54% capital gains.
00:07:03.439 --> 00:07:05.920
Okay, there's no LLC that's gonna save you from that.
00:07:06.000 --> 00:07:13.199
There's no method, there's no write-off, there's no trust fund, there's no Cayman Islands offshore wealth account, nothing.
00:07:13.279 --> 00:07:15.839
There's no trust, this, nothing.
00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:17.920
Capital gains are capital fucking gains.
00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:21.439
And the most people that are telling you that you can loop capital gains don't have any capital gains.
00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:28.240
Okay, and as somebody with capital gains, I can tell you that there's no method, there's absolutely no method.
00:07:28.399 --> 00:07:33.120
And so we're gonna do a tax stream on Friday because it's important.
00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:34.240
I gotta fucking pay him.
00:07:34.319 --> 00:07:36.879
We'll rant about this later, but it's my favorite tweet of the day.
00:07:36.959 --> 00:07:37.680
I added it.
00:07:37.839 --> 00:07:40.240
There's fuck you money, but then there's fuck you skills.
00:07:40.399 --> 00:07:43.279
You can be so skilled that you actually don't have to care about what people think.
00:07:43.439 --> 00:07:44.800
You'll be fine no matter what.
00:07:44.959 --> 00:07:48.160
Chat, we are building fuck you skills.
00:07:48.319 --> 00:07:49.199
That's what I want to build.
00:07:49.360 --> 00:07:50.639
Fuck you, money is sick.
00:07:50.879 --> 00:07:54.399
Fuck you assets are really cool, but we're building fuck you skills.
00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:57.680
If you really think about this, being able to trade, think about this for a second.
00:07:57.759 --> 00:07:58.319
One more rant.
00:07:58.480 --> 00:07:59.680
Think about this for a second.
00:07:59.920 --> 00:08:03.600
Being able to trade is actually the ultimate fuck you skill.
00:08:03.759 --> 00:08:07.040
Because if you can trade and trade well, I didn't it took me a while to realize this.
00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:10.000
I was interested in trading before I decided I wanted to get good at trading.
00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:16.160
If you can trade, you actually can say and do whatever you want, and you never have to be employable, ever.
00:08:16.319 --> 00:08:18.560
At the very least, it's like the goaded backup.
00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:23.519
Because in theory, if you could trade, and I mean if you can really trade, you don't ever have to answer to anybody.
00:08:23.759 --> 00:08:24.240
Ever.
00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:36.559
You could believe what you want to believe, you could think what you want to think, you can say what you want to say, you can do what you want to do, and you're not responsible for any brand image, any per perceptions.
00:08:37.600 --> 00:08:39.759
Obviously, easier said than done.
00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:41.360
In theory, chat.
00:08:41.519 --> 00:08:47.519
In theory, is that even in a world where the market goes to shit, if you can trade, you could still trade that.
00:08:47.679 --> 00:08:50.639
The thing about trading is it's in these skills.
00:08:50.879 --> 00:08:56.559
Probably the best two skills ever is like being an electrician or like a welder and knowing how to trade.
00:08:56.639 --> 00:08:57.519
Those are the two.
00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:05.039
Being really good at meme scope and being a plumber are the two most goaded skills of all time because you're forever needed.
00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:06.399
And so I don't know.
00:09:06.480 --> 00:09:07.759
I'm just throwing it out there.
00:09:08.159 --> 00:09:10.559
Anyone ever read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator?
00:09:10.720 --> 00:09:11.120
Be honest.
00:09:11.200 --> 00:09:11.919
You ever read it?
00:09:12.159 --> 00:09:13.120
Fantastic book.
00:09:13.279 --> 00:09:17.120
I just realized I'm just obsessed with like ball knowledge.
00:09:17.200 --> 00:09:18.080
I just like lord.
00:09:18.320 --> 00:09:20.240
I want to hear about people trading.
00:09:20.320 --> 00:09:21.759
It's like so awesome.
00:09:21.919 --> 00:09:26.480
The craziest thing about Reminiscence of a Stock Operator is that it's the same market.
00:09:26.720 --> 00:09:28.559
It's the same market, nothing changed.
00:09:28.720 --> 00:09:37.759
Jesse Livermore was trading markets in like 1907 that act the exact same way as what we're trading right now.
00:09:37.919 --> 00:09:54.720
And half the book is about governments manipulating the market, price action being fake, nothing being real, manipulation this, manipulation that the word manipulation and tips, tips is written in that book like 500 times.
00:09:54.960 --> 00:09:57.279
It's the same fucking game.
00:09:57.440 --> 00:10:09.759
Like you would imagine it looks different when there was when there was pink slips, then when there was hand signals, then when there was websites, then when there was Robin Hood, then when there was fucking IKBR, any of these.
00:10:09.919 --> 00:10:11.279
Bro, he was multi-walleting.
00:10:11.360 --> 00:10:12.960
Yes, they had multi-wallets.
00:10:13.200 --> 00:10:17.120
1909 when they were he was pumping Pacific Steel Co.
00:10:17.440 --> 00:10:18.960
They were multi-walleting.
00:10:19.120 --> 00:10:20.000
It doesn't change.
00:10:20.159 --> 00:10:22.639
If you can trade, you could you could you could spawn.
00:10:22.799 --> 00:10:26.879
You could you could throw me in any era, and I have value.
00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.120
You could throw me in.
00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:31.200
I've spoken about this many times.
00:10:31.360 --> 00:10:39.919
You could throw me in the woolly mammoth era, and I'm not gonna be killing saber-tooth tigers, but I'm bartering salt for meat, bro.
00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:52.960
I I just you could throw me any era that we've ever lived through, and I'm on that, I'm on that boat, 1492, Columbus sailed ocean blue, and I'm in the I'm I'm chopping up deals in the in the in the bottom decks.
00:10:53.039 --> 00:10:56.879
You could throw me in the barter era at any any era ever.
00:10:56.960 --> 00:10:58.480
And they're trading, they're trading, bro.
00:10:58.639 --> 00:11:00.559
The economy used to be a barter economy.
00:11:00.799 --> 00:11:05.120
One of the things I want to do a stream on with the personal finance, I actually think this is a sick topic.
00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:08.480
On what do you do when you make 100k for the first time?
00:11:08.639 --> 00:11:10.080
Nobody talks about this.
00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:14.080
What do you do when you make a when you bink 100k on a trade for the first time?
00:11:14.320 --> 00:11:16.480
Or you bink 10k on a trade for the first time?
00:11:16.559 --> 00:11:18.159
What do you actually do with it?
00:11:18.480 --> 00:11:29.840
I'm gonna be honest, I have made like okay, I don't want to like dox my wallets and you know, but dude, I've made 100k on a trade like a lot of times, honestly.
00:11:30.080 --> 00:11:37.759
I've made 100k on a trade a lot of times, and every single time I just size heavier into the next trade.
00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:41.600
Like, the first time I made 100k on a trade, I sold it.
00:11:41.759 --> 00:11:43.919
We went to it's actually exactly what happened.
00:11:44.000 --> 00:11:51.360
The first time I made 100k on a trade, we went to David Yurman, then the club, and then I sized five times heavier than I should on my next trade.
00:11:53.440 --> 00:11:58.720
Like, just like slid the leverage up on the next trade is like exactly what I did the first time I made a k in a trade.
00:11:58.799 --> 00:11:59.679
It was sick, it was fun.
00:11:59.759 --> 00:12:00.480
Knock them was there.
00:12:00.559 --> 00:12:01.440
We all went to Yerman.
00:12:01.919 --> 00:12:08.320
I got a fucking, I don't know, spent like 3k on a fucking necklace I never wear.
00:12:08.639 --> 00:12:09.679
Could have been worse.
00:12:09.840 --> 00:12:12.320
And you just size heavier on the next trade.
00:12:12.559 --> 00:12:14.399
We actually never really talk about what you do with it.
00:12:14.559 --> 00:12:19.120
Because like if you turn 10k to 100, your next trade should not be with like 75k.
00:12:19.200 --> 00:12:23.919
Or if you turn$100 into$1,000, your next trade should not be with$800.
00:12:24.399 --> 00:12:27.279
Like, this is the this is actually where we get lost in the sauce.
00:12:27.440 --> 00:12:30.960
So basically where we're at, we're gonna spend as little time as possible on the war today.
00:12:31.120 --> 00:12:33.600
I don't know about as possible, but whatever.
00:12:33.840 --> 00:12:38.639
There was an announcement that came out yesterday from Israelia News Network 12.
00:12:38.799 --> 00:13:06.080
And they're like, there's a ceasefire, and here are the terms, and it's like a 15-step plan, and it's like Iran will never have nukes, Iran will open the strait, Iran will never close the strait again, Iran will never have nukes, Iran will never build a nuclear power plant, Iran will surrender all their nuclear capabilities, Iran will say sorry, Iran will apologize, Iran will never do anything mean to us again, Iran will pay us sanctions, and Iran has agreed to the terms, and it was like, what?
00:13:06.159 --> 00:13:06.960
What are you talking about?
00:13:07.039 --> 00:13:09.440
What what is this Israeli news network?
00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:11.360
No Trump, no Hegseth, nothing.
00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:12.240
It was fucking sus.
00:13:12.559 --> 00:13:17.600
Oil dumps on it, of course, because that's just like how oil is trades, doesn't care.
00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:20.159
And it was kind of obviously fake.
00:13:20.320 --> 00:13:21.919
And so this came out today.
00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:26.000
Iran has officially rejected the US peace proposal and sets five conditions to end the war.
00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:31.600
Iran's condition includes immediate end to attacks and assassination, assassinations on Iran.
00:13:31.840 --> 00:13:33.519
Decent starting point, I would say.
00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:42.000
Establishment of concrete guarantees against future US attacks, clear determination and guaranteed payment for war damages.
00:13:42.080 --> 00:13:47.600
By the way, I'm not gonna say this is what I predicted, but I'm just saying we went over what could happen from here.
00:13:47.840 --> 00:14:01.679
I said that I added this reparations, international recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to the war across all fronts, including for all Iranian proxies in the region.
00:14:01.840 --> 00:14:08.159
The one thing I don't understand, by the way, is still to this day is what the fuck is Saudi Arabia doing, bro?
00:14:08.320 --> 00:14:09.440
I still don't get it.
00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:11.519
Really, I really don't get it.
00:14:11.679 --> 00:14:14.639
Why is this Iran's Strait of Hormuz?
00:14:14.879 --> 00:14:16.480
What about everybody else?
00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:18.480
You gotta get in and out.
00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:23.519
Pakistan, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia.
00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:24.879
What is everybody else doing?
00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:25.840
It's crazy.
00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:26.720
I don't know.
00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:31.360
But every time I read this update, I look at the map and I'm like, how is that a thing?
00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:33.279
Why does it work like that?
00:14:33.519 --> 00:14:38.320
And so Saudi Arabia has water on the other side of their country they use, or no?
00:14:38.480 --> 00:14:39.360
I have no idea.
00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:41.440
Oh, well, I've never seen this view before.
00:14:41.679 --> 00:14:42.399
The Red Sea.
00:14:42.559 --> 00:14:43.679
Nice one, Vibblad.
00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:44.159
Word.
00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:44.960
The Red Sea.
00:14:45.120 --> 00:14:45.360
Cool.
00:14:45.440 --> 00:14:46.559
I thought you couldn't own water.
00:14:46.799 --> 00:14:48.159
Well, here's where we're at.
00:14:48.480 --> 00:14:52.559
So Iran says no negotiations will take place until their five conditions are met.
00:14:52.720 --> 00:15:00.480
Iran also says it will end the war at a time of its own choosing, and only if the conditions it has set are fulfilled.
00:15:00.799 --> 00:15:04.320
Which obviously the US is not gonna be like, okay, fulfilling these.
00:15:04.960 --> 00:15:10.720
And so Iran said it has reviewed the US peace plan proposal and it considers the ask to be excessive.
00:15:10.879 --> 00:15:15.440
Iran also says it will not allow President Trump to dictate the timing of the end of the war.
00:15:15.600 --> 00:15:18.879
By the way, when this thing started, it was proposed as a 72-hour war.
00:15:19.039 --> 00:15:22.080
72 hours, maybe a week, and the whole thing is done.
00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:25.200
Here we are on March 25th.
00:15:25.440 --> 00:15:28.480
And on Saturday, it will be officially a month.
00:15:28.720 --> 00:15:29.840
One month.
00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:31.360
Straight still closed.
00:15:31.519 --> 00:15:36.000
And this announcement came out, which is Iran building up defenses of Karg Island to protect against potential U.S.
00:15:36.159 --> 00:15:37.600
ground attack.
00:15:38.000 --> 00:15:45.120
Iran is fortifying Karg Island with mines and air defenses against potential US military seizure.
00:15:45.360 --> 00:15:53.440
Karg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, critical to global energy markets.
00:15:53.600 --> 00:15:55.120
And then the final, yeah.
00:15:55.440 --> 00:16:08.960
April 20, 2026, the US Army is increasing the maximum enlistment age from 34 to 42 and eliminating waiver requirements for a single conviction of possession for marijuana.
00:16:09.120 --> 00:16:10.240
They want LeBron.
00:16:10.559 --> 00:16:11.679
And so I don't know.
00:16:11.840 --> 00:16:18.320
Apparently, they do this a lot, but this is two steps away from a draft, and I'm not being hyperbolic.
00:16:18.799 --> 00:16:21.039
I don't really know how this draft stuff works.
00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:22.639
I'm not there yet, by the way.
00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:25.840
I'm not like info'd about panic mode.
00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:27.600
I'm not even they want Aiden Holloway.
00:16:27.759 --> 00:16:29.200
Chat, who here's 42?
00:16:29.279 --> 00:16:33.039
Is anyone here 42 that just had like the worst announcement you've ever heard?
00:16:33.279 --> 00:16:35.759
Second time you've had Bron and Bronny in the same draft.
00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:36.559
That's fucked.
00:16:36.960 --> 00:16:38.320
It's actually not funny.
00:16:38.480 --> 00:16:40.639
Yeah, they want they raised it to 42.
00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:42.000
They want they want Rasmer.
00:16:42.159 --> 00:16:45.600
That is where we mostly are with war updates.
00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:47.200
Nothing's really happened.
00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:51.440
I mean, my general stance on this is the same that it was yesterday.
00:16:51.759 --> 00:16:53.279
Okay, this is actually very interesting.
00:16:53.519 --> 00:16:54.240
VCX.
00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:55.200
Does anyone know what this is?
00:16:55.279 --> 00:17:00.080
Because I didn't until like 12 hours ago, but I do now, and it's it's uh pretty wild what's happening.
00:17:00.159 --> 00:17:01.200
Does anyone know what VCX is?
00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:01.679
Yes or no?
00:17:01.919 --> 00:17:03.200
Good amount, decent amount.
00:17:03.440 --> 00:17:17.279
VCX is this publicly traded fund, stands for the fundraise innovation fund that has maybe it's made up of 20% of anthropic and 10% open AI or something like this.
00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:26.640
And it's a proxy to get exposure to these AI labs, and it is getting bid to the literal fucking heavens right now.
00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:28.319
It is getting bid.
00:17:28.640 --> 00:17:35.039
Everyone wants to talk about oh, when SpaceX IPOs or when open AI IPOs or when anthropic IPOs, it's over.
00:17:35.119 --> 00:17:36.240
This thing is getting bid.
00:17:36.559 --> 00:17:40.160
There's literally not going to be a fucking tomorrow.
00:17:40.400 --> 00:17:54.880
And so Citrini makes this post and he says, I have a working theory that when the market gets choppy, it concentrates speculative behavior into just a few tickers and causes a kind of paradoxical squeeze in a very select memes versus broad memes.
00:17:55.440 --> 00:18:08.160
For example, back in 2022, while the index was down like 20% year to date, a scam IPO from Hong Kong trading under the ticker HKD went from 200 mil to having a larger market cap than ExxonMobil.
00:18:08.480 --> 00:18:15.200
Started out as a low float shenanigans, but became the last refuge for meme stock traders searching for anything that would still go up.
00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:20.960
Anyway, here's a chart of VCX, and it's up ungodly amounts.
00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:32.960
And so his take is basically like at the end of a cycle when we're low liquidity, you rotate further and further and further and further and further into anything that you can scam rip with a hotball of money as high as possible, and then boom, what happens after 2023?
00:18:33.039 --> 00:18:38.079
We get rate rate hikes, crazy bear market, everything dies, right?
00:18:38.720 --> 00:18:45.680
And so here's what it is is uh it's anthropic mini IPO is unfolding in front of you, and you missed a 15x return.
00:18:46.000 --> 00:18:50.960
The stock named VCX by fund rates went up 1500 in five days.
00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:59.920
It holds 21 of anthropic, 10 of open AI, 18 of Databricks, 7 made up of Android, and 5% of SpaceX.
00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:04.880
It has a nav net asset value of$19 per share.
00:19:05.039 --> 00:19:06.640
This morning trade at$312.
00:19:06.960 --> 00:19:13.440
That means the market is valuing a$650 million fund at$5.4 billion.
00:19:14.400 --> 00:19:16.160
Just absolutely disgusting.
00:19:16.319 --> 00:19:19.119
They're doing it because the most important companies built right now refuse to go public.
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Nobody can get exposure.
00:19:20.319 --> 00:19:25.759
Pre-IPO perks are like kind of a gimmick, and there's no way to get access to these companies.
00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:28.559
And so people are bidding this thing up ridiculous, right?
00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:32.720
Because they want anthropic, they want OP open AI, they want Databricks, they want Andrew.
00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:35.920
But it's getting euphoric, really, for no reason.
00:19:36.079 --> 00:19:42.960
Um, because there's some like they're not the only company that has has exposure, and their nav premium is so ridiculous.
00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:49.200
And so Tom Lee tweets VCX, which has a stake in open AI and Anthropic, trades at 25x MNAV.
00:19:49.279 --> 00:19:49.920
I think this is about right.
00:19:50.079 --> 00:19:50.799
25x.
00:19:50.880 --> 00:19:53.200
I thought it was more like 10, but we're saying 25 here.
00:19:53.279 --> 00:19:54.480
It's changing, obviously.
00:19:54.799 --> 00:20:05.279
Orbs, which by the way, is the company that makes the orbs for WorldCoin, is that third is 30% open AI and trades at 1x mnav.
00:20:05.599 --> 00:20:08.880
30% of this company is open AI and it trades at 1x mnav.
00:20:09.279 --> 00:20:12.640
Why is it not getting the premium?
00:20:12.799 --> 00:20:13.200
I don't know.
00:20:13.359 --> 00:20:15.359
Does this mean there's an opportunity here?
00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:19.200
Does this mean there's crazy upside in orbs?
00:20:19.359 --> 00:20:20.960
It could potentially mean that.
00:20:21.119 --> 00:20:27.119
Like, do we just go down and index every company that has exposure and what mnav they're trading at with enthropic and open AI?
00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:29.119
Like, maybe not this, is it?
00:20:29.440 --> 00:20:30.079
Oh, wait, wait, wait.
00:20:30.319 --> 00:20:31.279
It is this Aco.
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Oh, this is down so bad.
00:20:33.200 --> 00:20:34.160
Oh my god.
00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:37.200
Oh god, this is done so bad.
00:20:37.519 --> 00:20:39.440
But it's getting a bit.
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:42.720
I was at the mall and they were doing a pop-up where you get to get your eye scanned by the orb.
00:20:42.799 --> 00:20:43.200
How much?
00:20:43.359 --> 00:20:44.240
How much is this up?
00:20:44.480 --> 00:20:45.759
Wow, it's up a good amount though.
00:20:46.000 --> 00:20:47.279
It was like 100% at the top.
00:20:47.680 --> 00:20:48.319
Interesting.
00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:50.720
So why is it not getting the premium?
00:20:50.799 --> 00:20:52.079
I don't really know.
00:20:52.880 --> 00:21:00.240
Um but thing is BCX is getting just the most ridiculous bid of all time.
00:21:00.559 --> 00:21:01.200
Look at this thing.
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It's just getting look at this.
00:21:02.480 --> 00:21:03.440
Look at this fucking.
00:21:03.599 --> 00:21:04.240
We could have bought.
00:21:04.400 --> 00:21:05.440
I didn't even know this was a thing.
00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:06.559
We could have bought this.
00:21:06.720 --> 00:21:09.359
This is on Thursday last week.
00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:12.480
It's up 600% just from that alone.
00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:13.519
Yeah, this is what I want.
00:21:13.680 --> 00:21:20.319
So people are buying this fun VCX at these levels to buy anthropic at a 4.94 trillion dollar valuation.
00:21:20.400 --> 00:21:24.079
That's what you're paying for the anthropic exposure inside VCX at current prices.
00:21:24.160 --> 00:21:26.559
I think Anthropic's last round was at like 400.
00:21:26.640 --> 00:21:29.599
Uh the reported secondaries are going for 600 billion.
00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:36.799
I get that people want real exposure, these private names, but you can buy Amazon in real business and get 15% exposure to anthropic.
00:21:37.359 --> 00:21:40.880
I mean, it's just in fucking insane what people are paying.
00:21:40.960 --> 00:21:46.240
And so, yeah, Amazon stock gives you more anthropic exposure per dollar than VCX does right now.
00:21:46.319 --> 00:21:48.720
And Amazon is actually a behemoth.
00:21:49.200 --> 00:21:52.160
Microsoft gives you 7x more open AI exposure.
00:21:52.319 --> 00:21:53.599
You already have access to these companies.
00:21:53.680 --> 00:21:58.559
Buying VCX is just paying a 16x premium because you didn't do research.
00:21:58.720 --> 00:21:59.759
And so there's kind of a couple.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:00.880
Boys, look at this.
00:22:00.960 --> 00:22:01.920
There's two sides of the coin.
00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:07.440
One side of the coin is that oh my god, we're pumping the latest stage meme coins possible.
00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:08.640
It's over.
00:22:09.200 --> 00:22:15.599
The second is that maybe open AI IPOing at a trillion dollars is not the top.
00:22:15.839 --> 00:22:26.559
Maybe Enthropic gets 600 bill if they IPO'd there when people are paying almost 5 trillion to get exposure to it to VCX has room to run when it IPOs.
00:22:26.880 --> 00:22:36.319
Maybe SpaceX when it IPOs at a trillion dollars and some change has room to run because people are paying such a ridiculous premium for these companies.
00:22:36.480 --> 00:22:39.200
And so who knows what happens here.
00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:49.359
But how this plays out, I think, is very telling to, or at least some level of signal to what's gonna happen in the public markets when these private companies start going public.
00:22:49.599 --> 00:23:00.240
The second thing that happened in the AI world is Sora, the AI TikTok clone short form video from OpenAI has shut down.
00:23:00.799 --> 00:23:03.039
And I don't know, did this come out of nowhere?
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:05.839
I never did anyone here use Sora, yes or no?
00:23:06.000 --> 00:23:12.640
They announced we're saying goodbye to the Sora app to everyone who created with Sora, shared it, and built community around it.
00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:13.519
Thank you.
00:23:13.839 --> 00:23:19.279
What you made with Sora mattered, it absolutely did not matter.
00:23:19.440 --> 00:23:21.359
Nothing you made with it mattered.
00:23:21.680 --> 00:23:23.519
And we know this news is disappointing.
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:32.319
We'll share more soon, including timelines for the app and API and details on preserving your work.
00:23:33.200 --> 00:23:35.200
And so this is the announcement.
00:23:35.279 --> 00:23:36.799
I did it come out of nowhere.
00:23:36.880 --> 00:23:37.759
I don't know.
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:39.200
I've never really used it.
00:23:39.359 --> 00:23:44.160
I actually never used it once, and I've never really seen people use it, but it's significant for a couple reasons.
00:23:44.240 --> 00:23:56.319
Number one is that Disney had planned to invest a billion dollars into the company and let Sora have access to AI generate videos of characters from Disney, Marvel, Pixar, and Star Wars.
00:23:56.400 --> 00:24:00.480
There were some massive investments planned going into Sora.
00:24:00.880 --> 00:24:05.359
Disney's been a terrible performing stock, but it's down the announcement was yesterday.
00:24:05.759 --> 00:24:09.119
It's down like at least a couple percent, three, four percent.
00:24:09.200 --> 00:24:11.039
Maybe it was gonna go down anyways.
00:24:11.279 --> 00:24:22.480
And second is that the video scene for AI is so competitive, and arguably, or maybe definitively, Chinese company C Dance is just winning.
00:24:22.640 --> 00:24:24.960
So Uti tweets everyone is wrong about why Sora is canceled.
00:24:25.039 --> 00:24:26.480
Sora 2 is last gen tech.
00:24:26.640 --> 00:24:30.640
C Dance 2 is 10x better and will be rolled out in the US in the next few days.
00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:34.480
Trained on TikTok, which has more video data than anyone else on Earth.
00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:36.319
Open AI cannot compete.
00:24:36.559 --> 00:24:44.319
The brute reality of the situation is that the United States has basically given up on winning AI video against China.
00:24:44.480 --> 00:24:46.799
Like China has just definitively won.
00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:51.920
C dance is the leading model out of China, and it is just incredible.
00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:55.920
They they've just they are just winning on video, and we're kind of giving up.
00:24:56.079 --> 00:25:01.039
And so there's always this conversation on, you know, is China just stealing American AI?
00:25:01.440 --> 00:25:18.160
And there's a lot of arguments as to why it is happening, but a counterpoint to they're not doing it is they've just won, they're winning video, they are winning video, definitively winning video, and this Sora announcement, I think, is further proof.
00:25:18.319 --> 00:25:21.920
And so a lot of people are tweeting the first domino to fall in the AI bubble.
00:25:22.000 --> 00:25:23.599
I don't exactly know if that's true.
00:25:23.759 --> 00:25:31.599
I think what is definitely true is that they realized that this product is just not where they're gonna make any money.
00:25:31.680 --> 00:25:34.640
Okay, and so I did this, I did some math, yeah, on this math equation.
00:25:34.799 --> 00:25:46.720
Um, API pricing for Sora 2,$10 a second video at$720p,$30 a second at pro and$50 or uh excuse, let me start over.
00:25:46.960 --> 00:25:53.359
10 cents a second at$7.20p, 30 cents a second at pro and 50 cents a second at full resolution.
00:25:53.680 --> 00:25:58.880
A 10 second video costs open AI roughly one to five dollars in raw compute.
00:25:59.119 --> 00:26:02.079
Chat GPT Plus gives you 50 videos a month for$20.
00:26:02.400 --> 00:26:09.200
That's 40 cents a video to the user, but costing open AI one to five dollars per video in compute.
00:26:09.440 --> 00:26:17.359
So a power user making 50 videos a month is generating$50 to$250 in compute cost on a$20 subscription.
00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:22.799
The pro plan$200 a month for$500 videos is even worth is is even worse.
00:26:22.960 --> 00:26:30.720
500 videos times one to five dollars per video is five hundred to twenty five hundred dollars a month in compute for two hundred dollars in revenue.
00:26:30.880 --> 00:26:36.079
And so the reality situation is they were getting absolutely torched on compute cost.
00:26:36.319 --> 00:26:40.799
Video is intensive and it's expensive, and nobody really cared about the product.
00:26:40.960 --> 00:26:44.240
I don't really think anyone cared about the product, no one was using it.
00:26:44.480 --> 00:26:51.680
There's better models that are cheaper, and they're just I don't know, they're dialing in, like they're just not gonna win on uh on on video.
00:26:52.160 --> 00:26:57.680
It was it's I don't know, it was kind of like a wild announcement, but I I guess it wasn't crazy or the most unexpected.
00:26:58.480 --> 00:26:59.119
Let's see.
00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:00.559
This is such a good one.
00:27:00.880 --> 00:27:02.000
Sora tribute!
00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:03.119
Are you kidding me?
00:27:03.519 --> 00:27:06.319
Drop it, drop the gun, give me that hey, let go.
00:27:07.519 --> 00:27:09.599
There was some good, it was pretty good if a day.
00:27:09.920 --> 00:27:10.319
Love you guys.
00:27:10.400 --> 00:27:12.960
We're gonna have a fun, we're gonna have a sick, a smart stream tomorrow.
00:27:13.039 --> 00:27:14.400
We're gonna get better, we're gonna get smarter.
00:27:14.480 --> 00:27:14.960
That's the only thing.
00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:16.160
We're skill maxing, okay?
00:27:16.240 --> 00:27:17.920
The money comes when you're fucking lit.
00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:18.880
The money comes later.
00:27:18.960 --> 00:27:19.680
We're skill maxing.
00:27:19.839 --> 00:27:20.640
Baka Flacka.
00:27:20.799 --> 00:27:21.039
That's love.
00:27:21.119 --> 00:27:21.920
That's a good show today.
00:27:22.319 --> 00:27:22.799
I enjoyed it.
