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Timothy Iseler, CFP®: Hi everyone.
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Welcome to The Thing We Never Talk About.
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My name is Tim Iseler.
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I'm a certified financial planner, and I
run my own independent financial advisory
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business, helping musicians, artists,
And other people with weird jobs make
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smarter decisions with their money.
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You can learn more at iselerfinancial.com.
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If you have a question you would like
me to answer in a future episode, please
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visit iselerfinancial.com/podcast.
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And if you like what you hear you can also
subscribe to my Keep It Easy newsletter
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at iselerfinancial.com/newsletter.
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Today I want to share a case study from
work I did recently with some clients.
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I like sharing case studies because
it both gives you an example of
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what financial advice or financial
planning looks like, and it can
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also help you understand the kinds
of questions you should be thinking
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about in your own financial life.
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So here's the setup: my clients were a
married couple with two young children.
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They both work full-time and own
their home, and they've actually been
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paying more than the required minimum
payment for their mortgage each month.
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And they expect to receive a one-time
windfall from a property sale.
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I'm not sure that the number is super
critical to this story, but for context,
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it is several hundred thousand dollars.
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In other words, it's a meaningful
amount of money, and they want
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to make sure they use it wisely.
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In particular, they wanted to compare
two options: number one, take all the
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money and invest it now for long-term
goals like retirement; or option two,
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use the money to pay off their mortgage,
then invest whatever's left over and
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take the money that would have gone to
their monthly mortgage payment and invest
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that as a recurring automated transfer.
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I mentioned that this couple has been
aggressively paying off their mortgage,
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so even though they are less than ten
years into a thirty-year mortgage,
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they're actually on track to pay
it off in just under sixteen years.
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And since they have about sixteen
years left on their mortgage if
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they just continue doing what
they've been doing, I decided that
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it makes sense to use a twenty-year
time horizon for our projections.
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And for good measure, I threw in a
Goldilocks door number three: what
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if they paid off half the mortgage
now, invested the rest, and then
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directed the extra money towards
investments when the mortgage is paid
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off in about six point two years?
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Before we go any further, I want to
take a minute to acknowledge how much
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this couple is already doing right.
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They're adding a little extra money
to their mortgage payment each
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month, which doesn't seem like much
at first, but actually saves tons
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of money and shaves months or even
years off the life of the loan.
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And they're thinking about how they
can put extra money to work for
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them rather than thinking about what
could they buy or whether they could
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move into a bigger house or whatever
else you might do with that money.
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Longtime listeners of this
podcast will remember my four
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foundational money recommendations:
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number one, spend a little
less than you want to;
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number two, save a little
more than you have been;
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number three, pay off debt a
little faster than you need to;
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and number four, invest
for the rest of your life.
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If you can do those four things,
you can get pretty far in life.
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And these clients are already
ticking all four boxes.
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So they're in a good spot, and this
question of what to do with extra
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money is a good problem to have.
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But anyway, back to our case study.
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Their current mortgage has a 5.5
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annual percentage rate or APR, which
is the interest they pay on the loan.
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That's fairly high compared to where
interest rates were even just five
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years ago, so the interest expense
is definitely on their minds.
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And their current investment mix is
about 90% stocks and 10% bonds, which
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historically returns around 9.1%
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annually.
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Now, that doesn't mean that their
investments will return 9.1%
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every year, but, since we're looking
at projections over 20 years, that
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should be a long enough timeline to see
the investment markets behave more or
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less in line with historical averages.
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I took the information from their
existing mortgage and typical average
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annual returns based on their investment
mix, and then used that information to
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calculate what would happen over the next
20 years in each of those three scenarios.
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So again, we're looking at option one,
invest the full amount now and continue
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paying off the mortgage as normal; option
two, pay off the mortgage now, invest
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the rest, and then invest the money
that would have gone to the mortgage
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each month; and option three, pay
off half the mortgage now, invest the
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rest, then direct the monthly mortgage
payments towards investments once it is
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paid off in about six point two years.
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Here's what I found: if we assume that the
money currently going towards the mortgage
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each month would be redirected towards
investments once the mortgage is paid off
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in every scenario, then investing the full
amount right now was the clear winner.
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However, if we assume that investing all
of the money right now means that they
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will not make ongoing payments once the
mortgage is paid off, then option three,
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in which half of the mortgage is paid
off right away, is the better choice.
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And option two, which is paying
the full mortgage right now, never
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turned out to be the best choice.
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Here's what else I found.
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If the average annual
investment returns were 8.6%,
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which is about what you'd expect
from an 80% stock, 20% bond mix,
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then the results would still hold.
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However, at around 7.65%
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average annual return, which is
what you might expect from a mix
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of 70% stocks/ 30% bonds, all three
options essentially end up the same.
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What that tells me is there is some room
to be less aggressive with the investment
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mix or for the average annual returns to
come in slightly below the expected rate.
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But if either of those drift
too far in the wrong direction,
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then there is no clear winner.
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Now, as I said, over a twenty-year
time period, I would expect the
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average returns to be roughly in
line with historical averages.
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So I'm not super worried
about that part of it.
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But these projections assume that you
maintain an aggressive growth-focused
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investment mix over the next two decades.
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I believe that this couple can do
that, but it's worth considering
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your own risk tolerance when making
this kind of decision for yourself.
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Because if you are a more
cautious investor, the conclusions
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of this case study might not
translate to your situation.
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Another thing to note is that even when
there was a clear winner in terms of
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which option works out best based on
projecting the data we have twenty years
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into the future, the difference between
the best option and the second-best option
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was only about two point five percent.
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That extra two point five percent ends
up being a decent amount of money, and I
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don't want to dismiss it, But I also want
to acknowledge that choosing the second
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best option isn't a bad alternative.
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Both options are good and, depending
on how you feel about debt, it might
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be worth giving up that extra 2.5%
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upside in favor of paying off the
mortgage in a little over six years.
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So to recap, this couple will
receive a large one-time windfall.
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We compared what would happen if they
invested it all right away, if they
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paid off their mortgage and invested
the rest, and if they paid off half
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the mortgage and invested the rest.
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We also looked at what would happen if the
monthly mortgage payment was redirected
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towards investments once the mortgage was
paid off in all scenarios, or just the
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scenarios where it gets paid off early.
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And the numbers suggest that, based on
a 20-year timeline and their current
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investment mix, the top two options were
either investing it all right away or
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paying off half the mortgage right away.
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But paying off the whole mortgage
came in third in every scenario.
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I hope this example has been helpful for
you, because, even if it doesn't directly
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translate to your situation, I think it
at least tells you the kinds of things
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you should be taking into consideration
if you're thinking about whether to pay
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off your mortgage early or if you have
a large amount of money and want to make
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sure you're putting it to the best use.
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And of course, it's also
important to consider the
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emotional side of the decision.
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The numbers are important, but how
you feel also needs to be factored in.
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If you have a question about
what to do with your own money,
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please feel free to reach out.
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You can send me an email at
podcast@iselerfinancial.com,
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or use the form at
iselerfinancial.com/podcast
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to submit a question.
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That's it for today.
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Next week I'll be talking with
tattoo artist Serena Lander.
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I've known Serena for around
25 years and she has given me
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many tattoos during that time.
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Not only was it great to catch up with
her, but Serena was really forthcoming
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about both the challenges and the upsides
of a career as an independent artist.
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So I hope you'll tune in next
week for my conversation with
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tattoo artist Serena Lander.
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The Thing We Never Talk
About is for educational and
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entertainment purposes only.
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It's not legal, investment, or tax advice.
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People on the show, including myself,
may have interests for or against
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any investments discussed, so do
yourself a favor and don't ever make
00:10:52.812 --> 00:10:57.462
any investment decisions based on
what you hear on this or any podcast.
00:10:57.812 --> 00:11:01.502
If you like what you hear, please
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wherever you listen to podcasts.
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If you have a money or finance question
you'd like answered in a future episode,
00:11:08.332 --> 00:11:11.262
please visit iselerfinancial.com/podcast.
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and you can get my insights on money And
more delivered directly to your inbox by
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subscribing to my Keep It Easy newsletter
at iselerfinancial.com/newsletter.
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Thank you so much for listening.
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I appreciate you