Hugh Freeze Fired, Dylan Raiola Injured + Early Picks for BYU-Texas Tech & Oregon-Iowa | College Football

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal hell that for me, I'm a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy. You want to be happy for day Ato State? Is that?
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Speaker 2: Whoa?
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Speaker 1: Whoa?
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Speaker 2: And Dan and Tye, Dan Robinstein, welcome back. Week ten is officially in the books. On today's episode, we're going to talk through some of the news that week ten brought us. We're also going to do a little bit of a look ahead to week eleven. Can you believe yes, it is already week eleven. In between, we'll talk about a bunch of other stuff we got going on with the podcast, We got going on with our games, we got going on with our Verbawler Top twelve, what we got going on this week on Tuesday night when we get the first round of college football playoff rankings. There is much to discuss on today's episode, sir, welcome back.
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Speaker 1: Oh thanks for having me. Ty always a pleasure. I've got a lot of thoughts about I guess the upcoming week eleven games we're going to talk about and the upcoming week eleven overall, I've got thoughts on polls and the schedule ahead for a number of these teams. It gets very real. This is the home stretch of the season, and I guess this is I mean, I can't speak for you, but I presume this is the most exciting time of year for you because it's the month before we're going to learn something about everybody. So doesn't get better, doesn't get better. We call it Tyvember here on the show for a reason, or November. I don't even know if you have that sound ready, but it is November. I have the sound. At some point we'll play it. I promised it is November. It's November tradition. But alas, welcome one, welcome all, Welcome.
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Speaker 2: Into the verballer hood. Thank you so much for downloading, for listening, for supporting what we do. Of course, don't forget to hit follow or subscribe if you made it this far, there is much more to come, not just on this episode, but really throughout the course of.
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Speaker 1: The season and all year long.
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Speaker 2: On the Cliverbal we talk college football. Yeah, that is what we do here for Ballers dot Com is where you can go if you want to further support what we do here. If you want to vote in the polls, I'll talk about the poll in just a little bit. If you want bonus episodes without the ads, discord access a bunch of other stuff. Verballers dot com is where you can go for that. Dan, Yes, why don't we do? We have a lot to discuss here.
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Speaker 1: I'm ready. Why don't we just jump in the coaching cos the ominous aurora whatever a saurus.
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Speaker 2: Gracing our eardrums here today on this Tuesday episode, we've got another one to discuss. And what's becoming something of a Sunday tradition. Now we had another coach firing. This one did not come as any great surprise, of course. It has been rumored for weeks, for months, for well over a year at this point, but Auburn made it official after the Tigers law by a ten to three margin at home against Kentucky. Hugh Freese not returning as head coach this week any of the weeks moving forward. They will pay him something north of fifteen million dollars in buyout money. Per my understanding from published reports, all of that is guaranteed. So whereas some of the other ones had a little bit offset language it take another job, you don't really got to pay all of it out. Hugh Freeze is getting all of that fifteen million. So good for him, I guess, at least in that sense, but bad for him from the standpoint of he is out at Auburn. Dan, This is, as I said, been rumored for a while. This isn't a great surprise to people listening right now, but your initial thoughts on this Auburn now opened as well. It's our ninth Power Conference opening, FYI.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, Hugh Frieze came in as somebody with a reputation for recruiting for offensive prowess. If you look at the best of Hugh Freeze teams at both Liberty and Ole Miss, you'd say to yourself, all right, the offense at Auburn is going to both find guys, which they did. They found running backs, receivers, the offensive line got short up, and you would think, deliver on at the very least interesting successful for the most part offenses. He did not deliver on that. And I don't know if it underscores misevaluating active college quarterbacks like Peyton Thorn and Jackson Arnold and most recently Ashton Daniels, it just did not work. Ever, They were not able to mount an even average or above average offense in the short time that he was at Auburn, and while the defense undoubtedly improved this season from like a decent place, it's been in a decent place. This year's defense has been legitimately good. The cap on Auburn's ability has been extremely obvious, with the turnovers, with the week to week stuff, with the idea of Hugh Freeze kind of throwing his players under the bus that was more so last year than this year, and just inability to finish games. And you know, if your coach is constantly trying to convince you that they're close, they're probably not right that if the breakthrough is something that Auburn has in its system, it would have happened by now. You would have seen that proof of concept. And so the way that they've lost recently in last season, I understand like he's just not winning SEC games. And at a place like Auburn, there's only so much room. Look, we've seen it before with Auburn, obviously a different administration, with winning a national championship and just obviously gene Chiswick not having long after that. The expectation is competing for high level SEC success and I don't know how anybody could make the case that Auburn was heading in that direction under Hugh Freeze.
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Speaker 2: So here we are, Here we are, I mean I just to I guess emphasize something that I know you kind of talked about there. Hugh Freeze's pedigree is as something of a quarterback whisper, somebody who can get the most.
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Speaker 1: Out of an offense.
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Speaker 2: I think they expected explosive offenses, and what they did in the transfer portal this past offseason was fully intended to get them there, right, but it's possible they backed the wrong horse with Jackson Arnold. They weren't able to ever get that offense humming the way that I think they expected given the talent that was on hand. And you know, this is always going to be a bit of a rocky go for Hugh Freeze. This season. It was not the easiest schedule for Auburn. It still isn't. But last here we are. It's again not a great surprise, but crazy that we've got another opening. More on that in just a little bit. We have developed our game. I'll talk through that a little bit later on in this episode. But with all that being said, the very next question is what happens next. Correct, who is the next coach at Auburn. You might be surprised to hear that most of the names that I have seen published either from her friend Pete Nacos friend Bruce Feldman. It's a lot of the same names that you've seen come up with other jobs in and around the South. This isn't like a bunch of new names emerging. That's just sort of where we're at. Kenny Dillingham is one that Bruce brings up. He was Auburn's offensive coordinator back in twenty nineteen. He's still a young guy. I think we all sort of assume he is ASU threw and through. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if Auburn made a call. I think you got to make that call. Kenny Dillingham is very much going to be in demand. The one that jumped out to me instantly was John Sumrall, currently at Tulane, played in the SEC. He's from Alabama, He's only forty three, He's had a lot of success as a coach. My hunch is that if he won to move on from Tulane, this will be a pretty good cycle for him to do that, because there are going to be a bunch of openings in that area where he's familiar. Yep, so John Summral is another name. I did see Ryan Silverfield at Memphis. His names come up alongside a bunch of a bunch of other jobs excuse me, that are currently open. Alex Golesh is another one that I think is going to draw some real interest. Currently the head coach at USF was formerly an offensive coordinator up at Tennessee. Alex Golish is definitely going to get some interest this cycle, as is Charles Huff. Another name that Bruce mentions, James Franklin he throws out there. He also throws out Jimbo Fisher. Dan saw that.
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Speaker 1: By the way, Charles Huff in the middle of his very first season at his new job, which look not unprecedented thanks to our good friend Todd Graham. I guess yeah, but that was even crazier because Pitt is a much bigger job to me than Southern miss But yeah, it's Look, the upside with Auburn is obvious, right, You're playing in arguably the biggest conference on the biggest stage, with a ton of money, a ton of expectations, a huge ability to land huge classes, both through traditional means in the high school ranks and through the portal. You know, the ceiling is competing for national championships in the last ten fifteen years, and the floor is a mess. An ordinary mess can become a catastrophic one pretty quickly at Auburn, right that. You know, there are stories about coaches not being interested in Auburn because of the magic word of alignment that there. You know, have been stories about there being too many cooks in the kitchen behind the scenes at Auburn, unrealistic expectations given you know what the roster has been at times, but all the same, they're part of arguably the biggest rivalry in this sport in a huge state that gets huge support, a frenzied fan base, and the ability to play for the biggest prize in the sport. So you're gonna understand why a lot of competitive coaches at smaller places like the ones you listed would be intrigued by taking a bite at the Auburn apple.
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Speaker 2: It is, and I saw an interesting take floating around social media, which is not necessarily something that I think we have come to understand too much here on this show. But there is probably some truth to the fact that relative to other jobs that are currently open in the SEC, those being Florida, Arkansas and LSU, you could, if you wanted to make the case that in terms of alignment with the administration, with where they're trying to take the football program, and presumably with everybody swimming in the same direction when the new coach gets there, you can make the case that Auburn may actually be the job that has its act together the most out of all.
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Speaker 1: Those four weird year for LSU. Right, Normally you'd say to yourself, LSU is such a killer job. But yes, obviously with the mess behind the scenes at LSU, perhaps it's it's less so than it normally is. But Auburn's been a place where, you know, Gus Malsan had a good amount of success. He's run out. Brian Harson was just not a fit almost from day one. He's run out. Hugh Freeze gets two and a half years, is my math correct, about two and a half years, two and two thirds of a year. Hires were so so at best, Portaling was in some places terrific, in some places not so terrific. So I'm not sure Auburn, right, now is a place that a terrific coach can fulfill his potential. But if they nail it, they could be really fun, really quickly. But it's it's a weird year, man, with all of these openings that you'd have to be really into the idea of being the guy that Auburn hasn't been able to find in a long time. And yeah, I just think people are gonna look at that job and say to themselves, it's interesting. I think I'm gonna pass now. Well, we'll see.
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Speaker 2: There's a bunch of big names that It's not just Bruce is pretty much everybody who tracks this beat is throwing them out there alongside this Auburn job as potentials. Some of that maybe agents speak, but some of that probably has some truth to it. We'll see which direction they end up going. Again, there are nine Power Conference openings right now. This is why we have put together a coaching carousel game. To my knowledge, it is the first of such games out on the internet. It is going to be available for everybody on as many people are listening to this Tuesday, yeah, as some are listening to this a.
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Speaker 1: Little bit later.
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Speaker 2: Make sure you get your picks in before the weekend. We've only got about a week to get all of these in and locked before we're gonna turn the game off. We're gonna go with what we got. If I delay it any longer, there are gonna be more openings, perhaps coaching announcements, that whole thing. It just gets muddier and muddier week in and week out. So again, available to all. It's going to be fun. I will absolutely post this everywhere we can. I will talk more about it on the Thursday episode, so you have plenty of time to get in. But just know that this is coming, and just know that it's going to be a lot of fun. It's gonna be a lot of fun because this is a crazy coaching carousel cycle and we needed to commemorate it and celebrate it some way.
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Speaker 1: However we can, so head on over to John sumrawlsnew super yacht dot net ah to play in the game.
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Speaker 2: It should be Hu Freeze's superyot dot Net buddy.
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Speaker 1: John Sumrawl's in the mix for all of these jobs, just driving up his price without having won anything significant.
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Speaker 2: Ever, John Sumral's getting fifteen million dollars.
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Speaker 1: What Aubren just needs a coach man any coach. You tell me that's what Auburn's gonna tell of the world in their press conference. You tell us we'll take suggestions. You anonymously send us an email John Sommral's new super yacht dot net to play. Do we actually have to register? Now that I've said that, you are out out loud, I'm not. We have too many domains.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're at the domain budget for this year.
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Speaker 1: Unfortunately. Okay, fair enough.
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Speaker 2: In other coaching carousel news, Mike Shula, not a head coach, but an offensive coordinator at South Carolina, fired just nine games into his first season on the job. You may recall Mike Shula was the Alabama coach back in the day from three to six. Most of his coaching experience came in the NFL as an offensive assistant, but he did join the Shane Beemer staff this offseason as a backfill for Dal Loggins, who ended up taking the job up at Appstate. Yes, it hasn't real worked. To say the least, Leonora Sellers has not lived up to the hype. This offense has oftentimes felt like it was stalling out, like there wasn't much of a philosophy behind it. So this isn't a huge surprise. It also comes, i believe, a week or two after Shane Beemer made a change with his offensive line coach as well. There seems to be a fairly clear recognition of the fact that the offense has failed to deliver.
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Speaker 1: Agree, I haven't loved Shane Biemer in general with his ability to find offensive coordinators and hiring and firing somebody in a nine month span. It's a really bad look for Shane Biemer's ability to vet and figure out who the best person for this job with like one of the best South Carolina players ever in Lenora Sellers, just in terms of a pure raw talent evaluation, like this is a year and given obviously some of the offensive limitations roster wise after what they lost last season, but this should have been a year where you're like, we got to pay big, we got to think big, we have to have a big vision, we have to hit the portal in an interesting way. We have to take advantage of the fact that Lenora Sellers is wearing our uniform. And it's a pretty significant failure from Shane Biemer in this staff this season to admit defeat. However many games they've lost what six of seven and four in a row. Offense has been at best occasionally interesting at best, and at worst embarrassing. So I don't know, it's pretty big failure. It's a pretty big mark on Shane Biemer to me, Yeah, not great, Bob, No, absolutely not great. It was always going to be tough sledding.
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Speaker 2: Clearly, it's a very difficult schedule that South Carolina has been going through this season. But of course, even still, you would expect a little bit more competence on the offensive side, given the fact that you got Lenora's sellers.
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Speaker 1: They scored seven against Vandy, seven against Oklahoma, ten against LSU, and mosttantly fourteen on the road against Ole Miss. Obviously, with an opportunity to beat Bama that was fumbled away a couple of weeks ago. Pretty pretty disappointing year for South Carolina. We do have some other news to discuss, by the way, please getting injury news. Unfortunately, Oh man, you really started that enthusiastically. I'm like, where are you gonna go with this?
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Speaker 2: No, no, yourself down, I can't come on down to celebrate this. I of course Dylan Royola out for the year. So we watched that game against USC on Saturday night. You and I were watching them together. We were well, not together, but virtually together as we were getting ready to do our show, and Dylan Roola got his ankle sort of bent back and rolled up on as he was just playing quarterback. A couple guys back there kind of going for um, right, lineman. Yeah, you know how it gets chaotics sometimes behind the line of scrimmage. At the time, it looked like maybe just a really bad ankle thing, you know. It was limping on and off and was able to get off the field on his own power, but didn't come back into the game. We found out yesterday. We're recording this on Monday. Found out yesterday Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening ish Delan Royola actually broke his fibula. Oh and Delan Royola is out for the year, which is a monster blow for this Nebraska squad. Now, given circumstances, I know you and I have agreed at some points and disagreed on others with respect to Delan Royola, but there is no question about the fact that Delan Royola has been the main catalyst for this offense. Right, none of this works without Delan Roola. I don't know what they do now with TJ. Latif their freshman presumably in line to get a bunch of the snaps. But this is a pretty huge blow for Nebraska this season. For what their hopes were this season. They're still going to end up going to a bowl. They're still going to end up finishing with, you know, I think a respectable mark. But all things considered, this is one of those that just kind of takes the wind out of your sales if you're a Nebraska fan.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I finished the season with that, going traveling to UCLA this coming weekend bye before they go to Penn State and finish obviously in the rivalry against Iowa at home in Lincoln. The best of Dylan Royola this year was really impressive. I have not been a huge fan of their offense this year overall, but a lot of that is, you know, the offensive line has been terrible. And you know, stop me if you've heard this before. I'm not blaming Matt Rule, but quarterbacks who play for Matt Rule get hit a bunch. Yeah, that's just a reality that we've come to understand over the years. Dylan Royola took a ton of hits this season, and you can only take so many before you can't take any more. And got crunched up in a tackle by a couple of USC dudes. It was ugly hate to see it. Hope he comes back stronger than ever. Hope he comes back to a better offensive line in front of him. That's obviously a weird situation with his uncle being the offensive line coach. But no, hate to see this. Wanted to see continued development. You know, obviously the raw talent is there, but yeah, an injury like this, it just it's a bummer.
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Speaker 2: More playmakers that are going to be out for the foreseeable future. Dallas Wilson, who didn't play much at all for Florida, just finally got back out on the field a couple weeks ago. He is also now out for the year. He got injured in the most recent game, ended up going back to the locker room. I've read that it's a foot injury due to the fact that he hasn't played a whole lot. He can retain his red shirt for whatever that's worth, whether it's at Florida or somewhere else, so that I think from his standpoint, is a good thing. But It's obviously a bummer for the Florida Gators, just because in the limited action that we saw Dallas Wilson, he looked like the real deal. He was absolutely the kind of guy who can change the game. So that's a bummer for them. Isaac Brown, the star running back for Louisville, will quote be out for a while per Jeff brom That is a huge blow yes for this Louisville offense, which definitely relied upon him his home run threats out of the backfield. A really really good player. Sad to see this go down. I haven't seen exactly a timeline on if or when he'll be back, just that he's going to miss the next game and he's going to be out a while per Jeff bromps. So that doesn't sound good, especially when you don't have like an established timetable up front when they make the announcement. And then the other one that I saw, Justice Haynes from Michigan had surgery and he's also going to be out for a while now. It did an okay job filling in for him this week, but Justice Haynes has had a great season so far for the Wolverines. It's a bummer if they're going to lose him for an extended period of time.
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Speaker 1: It is and obviously, the majority of Michigan's offensive success this year with a true freshman quarterback has come on the grounds, you know, offensive line, running backs, the depth the running back position. Justice Haynes has been excellent, one of the best running backs, if not the best running back in the nation, especially in terms of generating those bigger runs we saw that weekend and week out. Jordan Marshall did a great job, but certainly a sizeable setback for a Michigan team with designs on finishing strong. Losing to USC the way that they did, but beating Michigan State, beating Purdue obviously with the matchup against Ohio State looming in a few weeks. But yeah, he's been the guy for this offense as Bryce Underwood develops.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would say the notable thing We'll get into this a little bit later on, certainly with respect to Isaac Brown and Justice Hayines, these are two teams that very much have a role to play in their respective conference championship chases. Yes, Louisville could get there, They could still find their way into that title game, Michigan would need to beat Ohio State. But if Michigan beats Ohio State, it's very real possibly they have to win all their other games too, but it is a real possibility that they could find their way into it as well. And if Justice Haines is out for that, that will be certainly a bummer. So I'll get into that, I promise a little bit later on the episode. But four big names for playmakers going down for if not the year, some large portion of what remains of this regular season.
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Speaker 1: And that's just a bummer.
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Speaker 2: That's why I didn't celebrate it when I played the breaking news. I hear I can celebrate.
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Speaker 1: That, but yeah, this is that time of season right where just the wear and tear, you know, one big hit or one false move obviously or already worn down, you know, has bigger implications. And we've seen it with a couple of quarterbacks previously, one of whom is missing a pretty sizable game from Mazoo this week in Bo Prabula. It's what a mad Zolar's game for Mazoo against a top five text A and M game. That game is in Como. Yes, that game is in Columbia, So that will be fascinating to watch in terms of what their backup situation looks like in zolars. But yeah, this is that time of year, and hopefully everybody's able to recover quickly. But yeah, the nature of the game can't wait for this week's action. Hopefully a healthy Saturday.
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Speaker 2: Dan, Let's talk some polls please. We got two of them here. We've got an AP Top twenty five. We've got over Baller Top twelve. Interestingly enough, the top seven are exactly the same. Okay, there is a lot of similarity. As I've been saying now for several weeks running, we have seen this slow merge as the AP voters start to realize the airs in their ways and they have gradually become for Baller top twelve voters, as our polls have solely become the same thing. Where does things stand right now? Our biggest gainers after week ten? Texas Tech is up four, now into the top ten at number nine. Notre Dame jumps up two. They are now the number ten team in the land. Oklahoma, Texas and Utah all jump up seven. Virginia jumps up three. They're now all the way up to number twelve. The biggest droppers in the AP poll. Vandy dropped six down to number fifteen. Georgia Tech fell like a stone all the way down to number sixteen. That's eight spots from where they were previously. Miami drops eight to number eighteen, Tennessee drops nine to number twenty three, Cincinnati drops eight to number twenty five, and Houston drops out entirely. So I don't know if we have any great surprises on that front, but I can tell you the way it looks in the verbol are top twelve. Where things stand right now, We've got Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, A and m Alabama and Georgia as your top five. We've got Oregon, Old miss BYU, Texas Tech, and Notre Dame rounding out the top ten. And then to round out the top twelve, we've got Virginia and Oklahoma, with Georgia Tech, Louisville and Texas as the first three out. Now, this is not exactly how things end up translating into the projected playoff bracket. I will detail that in just a few moments, But first your reaction to.
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Speaker 1: This, I'm mostly fine with it. I mean, it would have been a nice year to get four teams in a playoff. When you look at the rankings, I mean, you can't leave BYU as an undefeated team out of a top four playoff. I guess not. I guess I insist, But otherwise no, it all seems fine to me. Notre Dame moved up after one of the more putrid Notre Dame performances happened. It was a clunker. It was a very quiet clunker. I don't think it was registered on a lot of a lot of people's minds.
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Speaker 2: But that's because nobody could watch the game, or that also hurts A large portion of people could now watch the game, like ten million people were without ESPN access.
00:26:45
Speaker 1: I can appreciate both Texas and Oklahoma making sizeable jumps, though there is something that kind of feels fishy about. Oh the SEC teams when they win big games, they jump up seven spots when anybody else wins two or three spots. And those were big games, obviously, beating Vanderbilt and beating Tennessee, Texas at home and Oklahoma on the road. I get it. Those are impressive wins. But when you look at the jumps over the course of a season, it seems somewhat more dramatic at times with the SEC and Big ten. You know, seeing Virginian there is weird, but I'm happy to see it.
00:27:19
Speaker 2: Oh.
00:27:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, they keep winning, they keep finding a way. Seeing them in the top twelve there great for the who's otherwise, No, it all feels kind of right to me. I'm always surprised at a team like who was I thinking about earlier? Oh, like Michigan, Like, I'm not sure exactly what they've done to really wow me this year, and so I guess them being out of the top twenty makes sense. But I guess that that win against what the big win is Washington in this moment, I don't know what I really have to say about Michigan in this moment, but yeah, it was a weird reminder having them play against Ohio State at the end of the year, like, oh, they're still in it. They're very much still in it.
00:27:59
Speaker 2: And again, I promise, so I will talk a little bit more about that in just a few seconds. In case you're wondering how this translates to a playoff bracket. Again, I need to reiterate this because I put the bracket out last week and some people didn't fully understand where I was coming from with this, I'm going to say it again.
00:28:17
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:28:18
Speaker 2: Number one, they changed the seating model. The seating is different this year. Just because you win your conference does not mean you get a first round by So this is where the rankings that we see on Tuesday nights where the eventual final ranking that we see on a Sunday afternoon after conference championship games. This is where those rankings are going to have a little bit more importance because they will dictate who is seeded where, regardless of which teams win their conferences. Now, if you win your conference, if you're one of the top five conference champions, you're going to get in regardless. It might be as a twelve seed if you're say Memphis, but either way, your top five conference champions are going to get in.
00:28:59
Speaker 1: All right.
00:29:00
Speaker 2: Right now, the way that this is shaping up, We've got Memphis at the twelve, Georgia as the five. Okay, We've got Virginia as an eleven on the road first round against your Oregon Ducks. Interesting, we would have Notre Dame at number ten on the road in Oxford against Ole, Miss, which would be a crazy freaking game. Yeah, and then we've got actually right now, and I understand to another point, this may not happen. It probably won't based on our projections right now, based on our rankings and only our rankings. A rematch between Texas Tech and BYU, which we're actually going to talk about here, it's the map for today. The winner of that will play Ohio State. The winner of the Notre Dame ole Mis game will get Indiana, the winner of the Virginia Oregon game we'd get A and M, and the winner of the five to twelve between Georgia and Memphis would get Alabama. Yes, the way it shakes out right now, I realize there are games will be played. I realize that there's a conference championship week. I realized that this is going to get shifted around a great deal, and there are probably going to be a handful of teams that work their way into this field that aren't currently reflected in this bracket. But based on the rules of how the bracket's going to work, and based on how our Verball or Top twelve has lined these teams up as of now, this is how it would look.
00:30:26
Speaker 1: Right. So in a more realistic scenario, obviously I understand what you're doing with this exercise, that you're just extrapolating the top twelve into a bracket. You'll have a like an Ohio State Big ten champion followed up with you know, in this scenario either in Alabama or Texas, A and m SEC champion as the two seed, and then go from there.
00:30:49
Speaker 2: I think it all likelihood, Yeah, I think in all likelihood.
00:30:52
Speaker 1: I mean, well, I say it's not going to beat Indiana and be like, well, those were clearly the best two teams in the country and we are going in to this with absolute certainty that were correct. So one two again.
00:31:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this, by the way, this was a point that was raised I think out of a bowlers dot com when people saw this and they said, ad, you know, this probably isn't one hundred percent. I know it's not one hundred percent. I'm just going based on the rankings right now. I'm not making any assumptions. I'm just taking what we've got and showing people how it translates into a bracket, which certainly could mean some really interesting matchups once we start talking about conference champions and especially Big ten and SEC champions. Yeah, that's definitely going to affect who gets the first round by what the semifinal matchups, what the quarterfinal matchups end up looking like at that point. Once we get I think a little bit better picture for who is where we can start talking about pathways and stuff like that even a few weeks out. But we're just not there yet. This is what it looks like at time.
00:31:47
Speaker 1: So this one has what two big twelve teams, Notre Dame and one ACC in Virginia. That's you're looking at this correctly.
00:31:53
Speaker 2: Okay, that's right, that's right, And a lot of that is subject to change because the tiebreaker situation is friggin nuts. Okay, I am not going to talk through all of the tiebreaker scenarios. That would take me hours on end. I'm prepared to do that.
00:32:09
Speaker 1: We always know this till lunch.
00:32:11
Speaker 2: Is that this is something of a side project for me. I love tiebreakers, counts is that people don't want me to talk through every single tiebreaker scenario paint staking detail. So here is what I will tell you, per my tialytics statistics. Statistics. Yeah, I don't know, twenty four teams realistically have a shot to win their respective conference. Great, not mathematically. I'm talking in terms of my what'd you just call them statistics? In terms of my statistics, I've got twenty four teams that I think realistically have a shot. That includes seven in the Big Twelve, six in the Big Ten, six in the ACC, and another five.
00:32:58
Speaker 1: In the SEC.
00:33:00
Speaker 2: In terms of which conferences have the most potential to get really weird, certainly the Big Twelve is at the top of that. A close second would be the ACC. Behind them is the SEC behind them would be the Big Ten. I am also not taking into account any of the group of six. I'm not going that deep with it, but I am prepared at whatever point to talk through what it would take to get like Iowa in the Big Ten title game. Of course, to get USC or Michigan or even Oregon in the Big Ten title gain, there's a lot of stuff that could still happen here as we get into the last four weeks of the season.
00:33:37
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, and this is putting you on the spot. I don't know if this is in your spreadsheet or anything like that, but based on who will be favored and what the schedules look like, if you had to use the numbers to dictate the likeliest conference championship matchups like Big ten. We know it's Ohio State Indiana. We know those are the two teams that are going to be favored along the way their schedule, the rest of the way is the most advantaged to end up playing against each other. Right, So, like in the SEC, in the Big twelve, in the ACC, what are the matchups that the numbers dictate?
00:34:12
Speaker 2: So if you are looking solely based on projections now moving total projection right, projected points spreads, assume that the favorite ends up winning. You're right, Ohio State Indiana. I think we assume as much as the likeliest the likeliest case in the Big ten. In the SEC, it looks an awful lot to me, like Alabama Georgia.
00:34:35
Speaker 1: Okay, a rematch nice, which.
00:34:37
Speaker 2: Would be a rematch, But I think that again, if you're going based solely on projections right now, right, what you're looking at is an Alabama Georgia matchup. If Old Miss just sort of hanging out, Old Miss doesn't have that realistic a path to get into that game, that might not be a bad thing because there's a pretty good chance to get a home game, they get a week off, they still find their way in provided they don't drop another one along away.
00:35:00
Speaker 1: And Ole Miss has the does not have the tiebreaker. Excuse me, obviously against Georgia, Alabama finishes with fired coach Oklahoma at home. I don't know if it's a buyer that's, you know, the a non conference opponent that is not going to offer much, and then another fired coach on the road at Auburn. So three talented teams, three flawed teams or at least two flawed teams in Oklahoma. Nice showing for Oklahoma. And Georgia finishes at Mississippi State. Texas they have Charlotte and there I believe, and then Georgia Tech and a pseudo neutral. It's in Atlanta, but it's in Mercedes Benz, so a tough schedule. I would say for Georgia to finish it out. I have that THEIRS and Texas is highlighted as the two most difficult November roads.
00:35:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think Texas is probably the most interesting team to chart as we get through November, because I think we saw some real growth for March Manning and from this offense this past weekend against Vanderbilt. They look good until suddenly the defense didn't. I think if they continue to show real forward progress there on offense. That could make things really interesting because they've got some interesting matchups. I haven't mentioned Texas A and M at all. The only reason for that is because I'm looking at some advanced projections, some of which probably haven't been updated. If they finished seven to one with a loss to Texas, Texas would get the NOD. So more to the point, Texas is really interesting. The Big twelve is just going to be weird.
00:36:30
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:36:31
Speaker 2: The most likely outcome though is Texas Tech against Utah another rematch. But that was, you know, pretty fun for a lot of it, pretty fun for a lot. Now, look I bring up Texas Tech Utah meaning no disrespect to BYU.
00:36:47
Speaker 1: It's too late, TI, you have already disrespected them. Continue and we're going to talk about BYU Tech just a little bit. We're going to preview that one. But again, when I say the most likely, I am just going based on projections right now.
00:37:00
Speaker 2: It's a tough November for BYA. It's a really tough November for BYU for sure. I am just going based on projections. Right now, Texas Tech is favored by ten and a half points. So as we're doing this exercise, we have to assume that Tech is going to be the one that gets the nod. Here again, that's the most likely outcome. But as we saw a year ago at the Big Twelve, there's going to be a whole series of tie breakers that have to determine who that number two team is. I don't think there's any way around that. There's a pretty strong likelihood the tiebreaker is going to have to decide who the number one team is. So hunker down. I definitely think there is potential for weird things to happen. But at time of recording, you can make cases for Texas Tech, Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, TCU Cincinnati, and maybe even Arizona State if all hell breaks loose and they can win a couple games.
00:37:47
Speaker 1: With Jeff Simms, Wow, double Cincinnati in there. Did I say Cincinnati twice? CISINCINNTA twice, But I liked it. You're emphasizing it all right, There is a six teams in the Big twelve event. Thank you. I jotted them down twice. Continue yeh, yeah, that's okay. There is a team. So TCU up by the way, also has like a brutal November Iowa State at BYU at Houston Cincinnati. There is a team in the Big Twelve, and there is a person in the Big Twelve that is going to have a hand potentially like a major, major hand like the Hulk fist in deciding the Big Twelve, and that's Scott Frost. UCF plays BYU Houston and Texas Tech to finish out their schedule. So they're right there in terms of I don't think UCF is all that good right now, but they could play spoiler to some sort of crazy degree. Big twelve should be fascinating. Can't wait?
00:38:41
Speaker 2: And then over in the acc if you were to take the most likely outcome, do you want to venture a guest? You have a guess if you are again, just go based solely on projections, right, Duke Georgia Tech, Duke Georgia Tech. Yes, Duke Georgia Tech. Right now, right now, if you're Georgia Tech, you feel pretty good. If you're Georgia Tech, you feel pretty good. You win out the rest of the way. It's a favorable schedule, You're going to be in that title game.
00:39:11
Speaker 1: Yep.
00:39:12
Speaker 2: I can realistically, they'll find a path for Virginia and Duke those are easy.
00:39:19
Speaker 1: And they're playing, they're about to play.
00:39:20
Speaker 2: They're playing in two weeks. That game is going to be a huge pivot point in this conversation.
00:39:25
Speaker 1: When was the last Duke Virginia game that had big, meaningful ACC championship expectations and implications?
00:39:32
Speaker 2: Certainly not in football. No, it's been a minute, but that's the game to watch in two weeks. The winner between Duke and Virginia puts himself in a great position to get to that title game. But beyond them, you're looking at Louisville, who still has a shot. Maybe less so now with Isac Brown going down, but Jeff Brom's a good coach.
00:39:50
Speaker 1: We'll see what he can scheme up.
00:39:52
Speaker 2: SMU is still in the hunt with four and one their record being in the ACC, they would need some help, and pitt It would need a lot more help. But pitt sits currently at five to one in the ACC, and if they keep winning in the manner that they are and get some help along the way, there's a real chance that they could find their way up a little bit higher in these standings, to say the least.
00:40:16
Speaker 1: So pitt is one five straight lost by a touchdown to both Louisville and West Virginia, but that's the West Virginia game, does not alter anything in the ACC, and Pitt gets a bye before they're crazy stretch at the end. So at least there's that It's Notre Dame at Georgia Tech and Miami for Pitt. Yeah, who's been a really nice story this season, regardless of what happened. So yeah, that would be the most difficult road within the ACC regardless. I mean, the Notre Dame element just affects there. I guess potential playoff consideration sure, but within the ACC, that's just it's a tough stretch.
00:40:49
Speaker 2: It is a tough stretch, and you know, just to be complete, Yeah, I can talk through the Big Ten because there are six teams in the Big Ten. Way, Organ's roads not great. Organ's road is not great at all. Yeah, but what you are looking for if you are a fan of a team other than Ohio State or Indiana. Now, obviously, if one of those two teams loses, that would open up the door for some of the other schools that I've got listed here, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, USC.
00:41:19
Speaker 1: Michigan controls their path.
00:41:21
Speaker 2: Yes, Michigan basically controls everybody's path at this point.
00:41:25
Speaker 1: So Michigan wins out and they're in. If Michigan were able to win.
00:41:29
Speaker 2: Out, I think they would have a pretty good chance of getting into that game. Yeah all right, But the one that I think everybody is looking at with specific regard to the Big Ten title game is that Michigan Ohio State game, which it always seems to come down to Michigan versus Ohios team. Sure, you know games in ann Arbor this year, right, game is in ann Arbor. You could, I think, make a very easy case that Michigan's a much better team this year than they were last. They still found a way to get the job done a year ago. Michigan is not a slam dunk to get into that game if they went out, okay, because the don't need help, they would still need a little bit of help if they were to win out. And if everything else were to play out according to projections, your Big Ten title game would be Indiana against Oregon, a rematch. Oh okay, all right, So Michigan would probably need Oregon to drop one at some point along the way. Or there is also this added complexity of conference opponent win percentage. Oh, right, that could somehow go in Michigan's favor depending on how the way the rest of like Oregon's season and Oregon's opponents seasons play out. This is where you get this weird voodoo that we can't really talk about here because it would take seven hours. But let's just say if Michigan beats Ohio State, a lot of possibilities open up, including USC finding their way into the title game, Iowa finding their way into game if they mysteriously went out.
00:43:02
Speaker 1: Two non conference losses USC to Notre Dame in Iowa against Iowa State.
00:43:06
Speaker 2: That's right, So there is a lot that could still happen in the Big Ten. I don't think any of that's likely. I think it's possible. For sure, it's possible. We have to consider that Michigan could do it again against Ohio State, especially with the game being in ann Arbor. I don't want to take that one off the table, but I'm almost ready to. But yeah, yeah, well I'm almost there with the way that Ohio State. Look, but you said the same thing last year. I've been there before, right, So I don't want to handwave of that as an impossibility, but just know that if you want there to be some other scenarios opening up in the Big ten.
00:43:41
Speaker 1: You need to be a Michigan fan in that final week of the year. Yeah, Okay. Oregon, by the way, in terms of path in November, because Ohio State and Indiana are pretty good. USC's is decent, not amazing. Oregon's path in November. They're at Iowa this week and then immediately have a short win and take on Minnesota coming off of a Minnesota is coming off of a bye. That's a Friday night in Eugene. Yeah, they get USC and Eugene, and then they're on the road in the rivalry game against Washington.
00:44:09
Speaker 2: It's tough, man, that's a tough, tough road.
00:44:11
Speaker 1: I think Oregon's better than those teams, but just in terms of the back to back to back to back, it's tough.
00:44:18
Speaker 2: We're gonna preview two games on today's episode, Dan Early Bird Special.
00:44:23
Speaker 1: The first is at high noon on ABC.
00:44:26
Speaker 2: It is number eight BYU it is number nine Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, as I said earlier, are favored by a staggering, staggering ten and a half points.
00:44:40
Speaker 1: Dan, that's a lot of potatoes. That has a lot of potatoes. My man, that's a big number against an undefeated top ten team.
00:44:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, so obviously this is a monster game for both these teams. Probably a little bit bigger for Texas Tech though. And here's why.
00:44:58
Speaker 1: On the heels of what.
00:44:59
Speaker 2: We were just talking about with tie breakers and conference championship scenarios and all that, if Texas Tech loses, they kind of play themselves out of the Big twelve title chase as a whole.
00:45:09
Speaker 1: Like maybe, yeah, likely maybe in all likelihood, Okay, you've done more of this math than I have.
00:45:15
Speaker 2: I think at all likelihood, they kind of play themselves out of this thing. Okay, they could technically still get back to the title game, they would just need a lot more help. And I think on top of that, if you lose here, you're probably on the outside looking in with that playoff because suddenly got a bunch of teams that are going to be losing their second game. You're suddenly into that big old mishmash of ten and two schools that you know you don't want to leave it up to the committee unless you have to, right, So this one means a lot for Texas Tech. BYU, by the way, could still lose this game. And find their way into the title chase and find their way into the playoff. Right They're undefeated right now, but Texas Tech isn't. They lost that game on the road to Arizona State, so this.
00:45:57
Speaker 1: Is a big deal. And Texas Tech, by the way, doesn't have the signature like non conference moment that some other schools they might be compared with perhaps have, I think the Arkansas Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State. That's right.
00:46:12
Speaker 2: I'm trying to figure out why this point spread is ten and a half though.
00:46:15
Speaker 1: I'll tell you why. Texas Tech I think is the surest wagering team in America right now.
00:46:21
Speaker 2: Right they're eighty nine percent against the point spread. So the numbers have not been high enough. As Texas Tech has been favored basically all year long. I think that's why, and that BYU hasn't necessarily been a great performer on the road. They started out terribly against Iowa State.
00:46:38
Speaker 1: They went to they want them, they won, they won. But I'm saying the degree the magnitude with which they play on the road versus at home in Provo, it's just different. Overtime, double overtime or whatever against Arizona, right.
00:46:53
Speaker 2: I mean they've beaten three teams close win against Colorado with winning records on the road, and not a lot of other teams out there have done that.
00:47:00
Speaker 1: Winning as a skill, it's a good way to win. Texas Tech has been comfortably winning on the road as recently as like three days ago. Right, yeah, sure against a decent enough Kansas State team, not a great Kansas State team, but Texas Tech takes care of business in a way that BYU hasn't. BYU is really good. I'm just telling you that why the number might be where it is, This is not an evaluation of BYU's quality. I went back.
00:47:27
Speaker 2: I re ran this one through the computer, which, by the way, we are going to start calling these TPS reports. Of course, ties port spread made some tweaks after last week.
00:47:36
Speaker 1: I feel better.
00:47:36
Speaker 2: About where we're at on the computer side this week, going into week eleven, I've got this one at Tech minus seven and a half. Okay, so ten and a half feels like a lot to me. I'm not comfortable given ten and a half points to a team like BYU, which is, as we said here, very adaptable. It seems like they get better each week. Certainly, that's the case for bear Bachmeyer. I've like fully seen the light on BYU now, I think they're legit. I really like this team. I like what they're doing, even if I don't fully understand it all the time. I really like BYU. I think they're good. I just think that Texas Tech's a little bit better, and I think they end up getting the win. And I could talk about why, but I've got this one somewhere in the neighborhood of like thirty four to twenty seven Texas Tech at.
00:48:20
Speaker 1: Home, Yeah, I think Texas Tech is better. They're playing at home. I think the noon kickoff, while sometimes it can be sleepy for teams, the fact that game days there there's gonna be a ton of juice and electricity in the stadium. I like Tech to win. I think I'm with you. There is something a little bit scary to me about whatever the health of LJ. Martin is. That's a big deal for BYU. He's been terrific for them this season and as a whole. And when he went out against Iowa State, it was all bear Bachmeyer. They could not run the ball at all as soon as he left the game, and he didn't even do much himself against Iowa State on then the last time we saw BYU. So there is some concern to me that we are seeing a first year starter thrust into this position. Blackmeyer is really good. He's just a pure playmaker. He's really fun. But against this Texas Tech defense, this is very strange for me to say, So I'm gonna say it more slowly than I normally would. Texas Tech defense is the best thing in this game, and I don't think it's particularly close. Weird Ty, We've been doing the show for like sixteen seventeen years. I've never had the opportunity to utter that phrase.
00:49:38
Speaker 2: We've been getting a lot of well actually is from both these fan bases.
00:49:42
Speaker 1: Actually that's fine. That just means everybody's charged up, and I love that. I appreciate that capital e engagement. That would be the biggest concern for me about BYU's chances is Bear Bachmeyer making two, three, four awful pass or under duress passes that he would love to have back against this defense, you know, the overhauled secondary, the overhauled line, you know, two really good linebackers and Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez. That would be the concern For me, it's a matter of how much you believe in the pixie dust that is like the BYU magic this year, right, because every time they seem to be every time they seem to have their backs against the wall, they make plays and they hold on and they do and they find ways to do it.
00:50:27
Speaker 2: So, like I pulled out a couple of three things in particular that I'm watching. I'm not even going to say they're the keys to the game, but these are the three things that as I watched this game on Saturday, I will be most focused on these things, to the point of BYU kind of having some pixie dust. BYU right now is way better on special teams, way better on special teams, especially on kick returns, kick off returns and punt returns. They're not out there returning them for touchdowns, but they're really good at playing the field position game, which is where stuff like this tends to creep in. Doesn't show up in a box score, but field position is something that BYU has been great at feasting on this year. Okay, this ends up being a one score game, like I think it could be, Watch out for field position. Watch out what BYU is doing on kick returns, even if it's like a twenty five yard kick return doesn't go back for anything, but instead gets into the forty five yard line instead of their own thirty five. Yeah, stuff like that has a real impact in tight games like this, potentially like this. That's the first thing. The second thing I want to see on the BYU side is how they handle As you mentioned Jacob Rodriguez. Also throw David Bailey out there. So if you look at the profile for this Tech defense so far this season, these guys have been human wrecking balls.
00:51:51
Speaker 1: They forced fumbles. Yeah, of course they have.
00:51:52
Speaker 2: Been wrecking balls in the front.
00:51:54
Speaker 1: Seven.
00:51:54
Speaker 2: Shield Wood their new defensive coordinator, who has had a lot of success so far this year for Tech. He has been great at scheming them into positions where they can make big plays, almost like you would scheme a wide receiver open. He has been finding ways to get the line to eat up space to get these guys to play downhill and make some of these havoc plays. So to your point from earlier, if there is an issue with LJ. Martin, if they're able to key even more on bear Bachmeyer, God, I've gotten beyond the point of saying he's a freshman because we're in November now, right, he's been the starting quarterback the whole year. There are definitely going to be some scenarios on the road just in general that he hasn't seen yet. He's got a lot of learning to do, but for sure he's been pretty good this year. But what does it look like if Jacob Rodriguez, David Belly really all the playmakers on this Tech defense are able to put him in the crosshairs and he is the main focus. I don't know sure, all right, especially on the road. That's the second thing. And then the third is I need to know what BYU looks like defensively trying to handle this Texas Tech running game. Talk about something else entire game to me, Yeah, talk about something else. We need to say slowly, I know, I know.
00:53:05
Speaker 1: TODG.
00:53:05
Speaker 2: Brooks was there for a while and he was very successful, but we're not exactly used to talking about Texas Tech as like a dynamic ground team. This is like a top fifteen caliber defense for BYU relatively speaking, though, the rush defense is the weakness.
00:53:23
Speaker 1: I mean, the past couple of years, Texas Tech has been a ground team.
00:53:26
Speaker 2: Todge Brooks, but yeah, they have been very good on the ground with Todge Brooks, But for the vast majority of the time that we have talked about the Red Raiders, we've not talked about them round team.
00:53:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, this has been but as soon as they realized they were they got.
00:53:37
Speaker 2: Better, and they did get better. Yeah. I'm still not used to it though, So give me a minute.
00:53:41
Speaker 1: Okay, that's fine.
00:53:43
Speaker 2: This is not to say that BYU is getting pushed around on the ground. They're not getting pushed around on the ground. They're stopping like one out of every five runs dead and inch tracks right, and that's top twenty in the country. So they've been okay. But they're also like eighty first in the country yards allowed before contact. How are both things possible, you might ask. Basically, when you get BYU on the ground, you really get them on the ground. And this, to me is the matchup. This is the whole game. It's a really good Texas Tech offensive line and ground game against a BYU run defense that I have some questions about. If Texas Tech can get going on the ground, I think they win this one. If BYU can find a way to muddy it up, if they can find a way to make plays even if it's an offense that's somewhat telegraph with it all being on bear Bachmeier again, you know, then that's a different conversation. But as right now as it stands here, what is this Monday mid day? I've got thirty four to twenty seven Texas Tech.
00:54:44
Speaker 1: Wow, okay, I by the way, here's a sidebar. This is a double bear quarterback game, kind of bear in and bear. Okay, that's pretty good dose osos Yeah, yeah, I h I think the entire game is BYU's run defense. If BYU successfully wins this game on the road as like a double digit or near double digit dog, I think it's because they forced Baron Morton to try and win this game alone, and I don't think he can. So he has not big game bear, whatever you want to call it. He has not been that guy in the biggest moments for Texas Tech. But if they have a balanced offense, I think Texas Tech will be fine. If BYU forces a ton of third and eight, third and eleven, that's where I think they can really get Texas Tech on the road here and quiet the crowd. But they're going to need that pixie dust as well. What did you say twenty seven to twenty or thirty four to twenty seven something in there? Yep, thirty one twenty four. So I guess I'll have I'll have BYU and take the points because like even last season when BYU was on their run, they lost by four or five points on the road at ASU. I think they had the ugly game against Kansas, but they Kansas didn't run away with that game.
00:55:56
Speaker 2: I feel like they're really hard to blow out.
00:55:59
Speaker 1: I think so. I think they're too complete and the roster is too thorough that and too well coached. Yea that yeah, thirty one twenty four. Two Bears one game, Dan, that's where we're at. Two Bears, one game. I mean that it's do poor oss what? They have a vodka? Right the podcast, the two Bears podcast, Yeah, a podka. They have a podka. Okay, continue, So we agree, we agree. Unfortunately for me, three thirty CBS.
00:56:27
Speaker 2: Your Oregon Ducks on the road in Iowa City against the Hawkeyes.
00:56:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess I think they're ranked and the coach has but not ap Iowa.
00:56:37
Speaker 2: But whatever, Oregon is ranked six and they are a six point favorite. Yeah, this point spread caught me off guard.
00:56:44
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie.
00:56:46
Speaker 2: OK, really caught me off guard. Then I ran it through the computer and the TPS report was spitting out Oregon minus seven. So we need to unpack why. I need you to tell me why this is a real good Iowa defense. Stop me if you've heard this before. They play relatively slow, They don't shoot themselves in the foot. They also don't offer much of any pop through the air. But they are going to try to beat your brains in on the ground, and they're well coached. This is a team that dam near beat Indiana with this exact same template. So my big question to you, can a very one dimensional Iowa offense with a top five caliber defense be enough to beat Oregon and have maybe the biggest upset of the weekend.
00:57:40
Speaker 1: It's a very tough ask because I think their ceiling is still pretty low offensively in terms of scoring points against a really good defense, which I think Oregon has. If you look traditionally, Oregon loses games sometimes under Dan Lanning usually, if not every time, I don't remember if there's an exception to this, maybe the Oregon State one from year one. They lose to teams who can throw the ball. They lose to Michael Pennix, they lose to Will Howard and Ohio State this year, Fernando Mendoza. They they have struggled relatively speaking, when they have to defend the entire field and those you know, Washington receivers or the Ohio State receivers, that those are terrific collections of game changing wideouts and passing games. I don't know if that's how people would describe the Iowa offense right that there has to be that ability to score twenty seven to thirty one points something like that against Oregon, and I just don't think Iowa scores that number. Now. Can Oregon's offense go into a shell like they did against Indiana and struggle and turn the ball over, And you know, Dante Moore may have broken his nose or something against Wisconsin. I'm sure he'll be playing and starting in this game against a tough turnover forcing defense in Iowa and lose this game fourteen to ten, thirteen eleven. I don't know, take your pick of like weird scoreagami numbers. It's possible, it's in the realm of possibilities. I just don't think you can be this one dimensional on the ground and expect to score three touchdowns against this Oregon team. I don't love Oregon's linebackers. I think they might struggle some for a stretch in this game against the running game. But I just think it's too much to ask that Iowa can win this game and like be confident that this is going to be a thirteen to ten game, because I think that's the only way Iowa truly wins this game. So I think I'm going to take Oregon winning and not covering, because again, this is an Iowa defense at home as a dog in a tough place to play, which as a Penn State alum, you fully know that going to Iowa City and winning a game.
00:59:47
Speaker 2: We don't talk about that here now.
00:59:51
Speaker 1: The other thing is it's been a weird year for Iowa football, right. They kept it close against Indiana. They likely should have lost to a James Franklin and Drew aller Liss Penn State eight at home. They should have lost that game. They pulled it out. And that's what you know, decent to good teams do. It's what it's Cayden weitchin the like all purpose, big time weapon for Iowa that he's worried someome. Of course, if you're an Oregon fan, I think if Oregon commits fewer than two turnovers, it's gonna be very difficult to beat them, even at home. So I have the final score something very similar to what the Indiana game was, twenty to fourteen eighteen, thirteen eighteen, you know, fourteen, something like that. If Oregon's able to score, I guess their cover number would be twenty seven, right like twenty four to twenty. Say, if they can score twenty four to twenty seven points, I think they cover this line. So I think it's just an ugly factor. Is what's that play here? So I'm gonna take the points. My final is twenty to fourteen. Okay, you have a number. I do before I give it to.
01:01:04
Speaker 2: You, though, I want to offer some other thoughts.
01:01:07
Speaker 1: Please.
01:01:09
Speaker 2: I want you to know that I love you like a brother.
01:01:11
Speaker 1: Okay. I appreciate that this is a.
01:01:16
Speaker 2: Content business, though we're in the content here. Yeah, and I see this as a prime content opportunity for this business, of which we are partners.
01:01:29
Speaker 1: I also am doing this to prove that I.
01:01:31
Speaker 2: Can jinx any team anytime, anywhere. Okay, So I've got Oregon winning by a twenty four to fourteen score, and let's lock it up, dan Oh.
01:01:41
Speaker 1: I like that lock of the week. So what is it about this matchup? That field makes you feel in your loins tie? And I don't often talk about your loins all the time. Yeah, in your loins, You're like, this is it's just going to be an impossible mountain for Iowa to climb.
01:01:58
Speaker 2: I think the one tomsnal nature of the offense can work against a bunch of teams in college football. I don't feel like it can work against Oregon. I really don't. I think they are too good on defense. I think everything is going to be so telegraphed. Even though Iowa is really well coached, and even though from afar it seems as though it should be easy to stop them, Iowa and Kirk Farns have proven time and again over his tenure that even though it seems very simple, there is a lot more nuance to it than meets the eye. And so it actually is harder to prepare for this Iowa team than many would expect. If you ever wonder why are they, how are they doing this? How are they?
01:02:41
Speaker 1: It's actually not that easy.
01:02:42
Speaker 2: To prepare for Iowa because the complexities with how they run the ball, with how they like to do things. So you look at what Iowa has done so far this season. They've got like four ball carriers that average at least five yards per carry. They're outstanding on the ground. So I think they're very good at doing that part of it. But I think you need to do more than just that. If you want to cover against Oregon, you just do. Oregon is too deep defensively, and I still think they're too good on an offense. I think they have so many playmakers that can find a way to get into that end zone that I am just not buying the fact that they're going to go to Iowa City and be completely shut out, which is essentially what iowad needs to happen. I would needs to win this game like seventeen fifteen, nineteen sixteen, something like that, that requires like four field goals if they're going to pull an upset like this, and I just don't know how they score the points. And I don't think that defensively they're going to be good enough to contain Oregon for sixty minutes. Now, famous last words, we've heard.
01:03:46
Speaker 1: That struggled with k Tron Allen, by the way, when the passing game was not going to be anything of note, with then Ethan Grunke and myrown Penn State.
01:03:53
Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely so. I'm just looking at this and we often talk a lot on the show about who's got more ways to win. I mean, Oregon clearly has more ways to win. They have more ways to win, and I think this could also start off a really pivotal stretch for Oregon. Right they were on a bye week a week ago, didn't play, but now entering this final home stretch here, they've got not only a lot to play for, I think in terms of probabilities, it's a playoff spot. It's not a big ten title appearance, right, but it is not an easy road. And so what better way to get yourself amped and ready to go and in the proper headspace to make this push than to go on the road and beat a team like Iowa, which could be an ugly affair. If it were up to Iowa, it certainly would be knock them down, drag them out, make it ugly, control the ball for forty minutes, and see what Oregon can do when they have it. But I'm just not buying the fact that IOWA was going to be able to totally shut these guys down. So I've got twenty four to fourteen. I'm locking it up. By the way, the offer stands, which is, which is if I am wrong again about this one, as all the locks have been this year, I think I had gotten every single lock wrong, with the exception of.
01:05:06
Speaker 1: One maybe back in Week two.
01:05:07
Speaker 2: Okay, I've truly been a tour toive force of this is your charity offer. Yes, this is the charity offer. And I'm almost doing this as a proof of concept for people. Yeah, because if IOWA were to either cover this spread or end up winning the game outright, is this not like one of the bigger jinxes that I've had so far this season?
01:05:27
Speaker 1: Potentially? If it is, it absolutely is. I'll give you one more wrinkle, by the way, please that would go against Oregon right now. If you're an Oregon fan, I would really really hope that this has been a week of punt coverage focus. IOWA is either the best or like one of the best three punt return teams in America. And so you look at how IOWA confined points, short fields, or returns could absolutely be away against Oregon, So that would be the other thing I would.
01:06:01
Speaker 2: Throw in if this jinx comes to fruition again, cliverbletgmail dot com. Sub meet your application, let me know which of your opponents you'd like me to jinx. I will pick my favorite application.
01:06:14
Speaker 1: And let you know.
01:06:16
Speaker 2: And then, as I guess a step of goodwill, I'm going to require a donation to a charity Locks of Love, and then I will do your jinxing.
01:06:28
Speaker 1: Okay, your taxes, I will do it. Yes, I will not do your tax now, but yeah, you'll do your parents' tech support.
01:06:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, bet on Iowa if you're out there, Okay.
01:06:37
Speaker 1: All right, there you go. Because of this luck, we disagree.
01:06:40
Speaker 2: Week eleven looks very interesting to me. These are not the only two games not by a long shot. Indiana, the aforementioned Hoosiers are on the road at Penn State Dan. This game is high noon on Fox. They're about a fourteen and a half point favorite. We've also got Georgia, another top five team on the road, this one against Mississippi State. Never count Mississippi State out, not this year. It's a weird season.
01:07:05
Speaker 1: Three point thirty on ABC.
01:07:06
Speaker 2: We got Texas A and M on the road at Missou.
01:07:09
Speaker 1: We've also got.
01:07:10
Speaker 2: Iowa TCU, Syracuse, Miami, Duke, Iowa State TCU, Iowa State TC, Iowa State TC excuse me, Duke Yukon, which I think could be weirdly interesting and going bowling. I believe, Yeah, Yukon's not bad, man. They're not as good as I hoped, but they're not bad, right correct. And then we got Washington now cracking back into the top twenty five. They're a ten and a half point favorite on the road against Wisconsin.
01:07:33
Speaker 1: Okay. Interesting. And then your nightcap, we've got LSU Alabama.
01:07:37
Speaker 2: It's weird that we're not previewing LSUB Alabama as part of this episode to try to pick out some of the biggest games and give you an advanced look ahead. But Elsie just fired its coach.
01:07:48
Speaker 1: Double bites favorite Alabama and.
01:07:50
Speaker 2: His ten and a half point favorite. We got the Florida Clemson game, Florida State, Florida State clubs. Again, you're leaving out states left and right. You jinx Oregon all you can do every I think you can't to Jink's Oregon, and then you're leaving out states. I needed to drink my mushroom coffee is what I need.
01:08:04
Speaker 1: That's true.
01:08:06
Speaker 2: Navy versus Notre Dame, Wake Forest versus Virginia, watch out for that one. We got Florid duh, thank you on the road at Kentucky and as you mentioned before, Nebraska on the road at UCLA at nine pm.
01:08:19
Speaker 1: Correct, And is it it's Tulane Memphis not nothing now at that road for a potential G six playoff spot, Houston UCF. I mentioned UCF having the opportunity to play spoiler in the Big twelve. It's actually like an interest. I mean, it's sort of going back to an earlier segment. But it's an interesting stretch for those teams angling for that G six spot, starting basically this week. This home stretch. Memphis probably has the most difficult with Tulane and Navy. I think those are both like non Saturday games too, so I don't know what the rest situation is going to look like for them. We've got a wild schedule. We mentioned that at Notre Dame, USF at Memphis, and Army obviously after Championship weekend, But like everybody else in contention for that spot, USF North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State and Tulane schedule is actually pretty great. It's like the worst stretches are kind of behind those teams. So those are the teams, Those are the seven teams right now that that seem to be the closest to that spot. But I you know, I'm gonna give the nod right now to the American champ with San Diego State at least having the opportunity to draft off the opportunity truck. Should the American just beat itself up going into the end.
01:09:38
Speaker 2: What you are looking for, though, if you are a school like in North Texas, is for USF loss, because if you get a USF loss, maybe you get a two lane win this week over Memphis. Suddenly North Texas is finding its way into that title game for sure. But right now it looks like you've got four teams at the very top where almost anything is possible between Memphis, USF, North Texas and even two lane in America.
01:10:06
Speaker 1: San Diego State AZTECS has a Boise team that I don't believe will have Maddox mattson either. Correct, that was another injury we didn't mention earlier, but he went down very early in that Fresno loss.
01:10:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and the way things are shaken out right now, San Diego State looks like it's got an inside track into that Mountain West title game. They're not ranked or anything right now, but this is an interesting situation for Sean Lewis to say the least.
01:10:30
Speaker 1: Agree.
01:10:32
Speaker 2: All Right, that does it for now, Dan, We will be back on Thursday. We have many more games to preview. We will do the normal thing on Thursday, talking through some of the headliners under the radar games. Clearly we'll be looking at what's going down in the Patriot League, seeing as how the Lehigh Mountain Hawks.
01:10:50
Speaker 1: Won forty one and nothing last.
01:10:53
Speaker 2: Week over the Georgetown Hoys.
01:10:54
Speaker 1: So we got that. How to Lafayette do? I didn't see? I don't care. Come on time yourself a Patriot League super fan, completest?
01:11:02
Speaker 2: No, I don't, I never do.
01:11:04
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, you die. I feel like that's you have like on your wall, all sorts of imagery. Now do you have behind me?
01:11:10
Speaker 2: I don't know if you can see it on the screen. Okay, I got a Lee High pennant behind me to commemorate this title run by the Mountain Hawks.
01:11:19
Speaker 1: All right, last week Lafayette's because I know people are waiting to hear this, because they've listened to this show. They beat Holy Cross twenty one to thirteen. Okay, great, and Harvard got by Dartmouth their their last real tough one of the year. That's what I'm paying attention to. All Right, that's it. Why don't we leave it there again?
01:11:40
Speaker 2: Hit follow Hit subscribes that you don't miss any of these episodes. We are going to post our coaching carousel game, which we will provide links to either at it for Ballers dot com or Patreon or across or social media channels, or out at our newsletter which we send out every Monday and Thursday. Quick Slants dot Solid Verbal dot com is where you can go if you want to sign up for that for free.
01:12:09
Speaker 1: Why don't we leave it there? I really liked my two bears thing that I noticed in this game. Yeah, I thought you would have been like Dan, you'd done it again. Well, we need a bear.
01:12:19
Speaker 2: I mean, we've given ourselves a few days now to really do this one up. When we talk about it next.
01:12:25
Speaker 1: That's true, we had one of the Bears on this show. We did have Burt, not one of the Quarterback Bears one of the podcasts. Yeah, we have Burke Creish. Yeah, that's true. All right, that's all I have.
01:12:34
Speaker 2: Okay, that guy over there, my good friend Dan Rubinstein for myself, Ty Hilarman. Thank you all for down one, if you're listening, for supporting what we do. We will be back on Thursday. In the meantime, enjoy your weekend. In the meantime, stay solid, peace,