Jacob Studwell: Welcome to the Predicted Podcast. I'm Jacob Studwell. I'm here with Garth Yuckham. so we got another four AM call last night. what do you think? Full clap for Wisconsin, half clap, most of a c I think it's a full clap. It's a full clap. Good stuff. Count your votes. Count your votes.
Garth: totally. Yeah. I mean I think it's it's definitely definitely full clap. Yeah. I mean three thirty I think Decision Desk called it at two twenty in the morning. A P got there at three thirty four in the morning. you know, that's pretty spiffy if you ask me. I mean you
Jacob Studwell: For a race within one percentage point, how much better can you do, right? Right.
Garth: With three thousand three thousand votes. I mean that's pretty awesome. I mean Whis
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Okay.
Garth: Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, they're all doing a good job. The midwestern states.
Jacob Studwell: Everyone, everyone putting in the work. We we appreciate you. 4 a.m. calls are still tough. I still went to bed, you know, pre-call. actually I think when I went to bed, Hong was was still up to like 75 cents, something like that. So traders got flipped around, I think it was about four times, four different times. Hong going into the night was around still around ninety-one cents going into the night. and then traders got a little skittish, probably lived closer to seventy, seventy-five cents for most of the night. And then they started to really learn their lesson deep and late. and then and then Crowley took it. I think it's surprising in just a polling context and just, you know, double digit leads in in primaries are are not safe. I think that's important to note. I we were comparing it to to soccer at one point. That you know double double digit leads are like three Three O leads essentially.
Garth: Two two zero two zero leads the worst kind of lead you can have. It's
Jacob Studwell: Two zero leads, two zero leads. But, you know, in a primary it feels something like okay, maybe it's a two-zero lead in like a a high school soccer game, something like that, where it can turn, turn real, real fast. and honestly, this is clear this is the DSA sacrificial lamb here. This is the clearest DSA loss, and the most notable one. And frankly, it was a pretty nationalized race given it was a governor's primary in a swing state. In a swing state, but it it it certainly tells you a lot about the Democratic electorate. just in in terms of how much of the vote share is there for a socialist. I mean I was taking a closer look at where Madison is, I think it's Dane County. you know, no she she did not run it up in in where Madison was, the the most liberal part of the state. She didn't really run it up too much in any individual county. And I think that's going to be the restrictor valve here for any socialist candidates. and and before I pivot to to where I want to go with this, I don't know. Any other takeaways? There are lots of other good house race primaries and and such. Do do we want to hit on anything else?
Garth: Well you you right were right about Dane County. I mean she only won by eight eight percent forty-four to thirty-six according to the AP. you know, I think the most galling thing here, from a from a democratic socialist perspective or a progressist b perspective, is how they left Hong out to dry. I mean,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yep.
Garth: no endorsements from AOC, no endorsement from Tammy Baldwin, no endorsement from Mark Pokan. No endorsement from Bernie Sanders. I mean, they left her high and dry in her moment of need. Tony Evers, did he do that? No, he didn't. He got behind Crowley in a late, or albeit late endorsement. But i i
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right.
Garth: it's kinda to me fascinating how you know the The team showed up in Michigan for El Said, but the team did not show up for Hong. I mean they think? Do they know? Do they have some polling that that says or or some sort of data point that says that Hong was a cooked goose or a cooked turkey in this case come November? you know
Jacob Studwell: Not for her, not for her.
Garth: not for her. So I mean it so I I I I think that
Jacob Studwell: No, that's fair.
Garth: part that's the most interesting part to me.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, no, you're you're right. I think they have a lot of really good discernment tactics here. I I would love to read into it further. And that's where I'm I'm going with with the analysis here is that this is a big result for AOC in that she did not get behind this candidate. and and what you put in the newsletter just a few days ago, like the woke one comment, I think she's starting to notice that only getting the progressives in a Democratic primary, yes, maybe it's better than In 2016, there's more vote share there, but there's still not enough for a a true majority, just a plurality. And in a big field, sure, that's great. If you're getting 25% in a 10-candidate field, amazing. You're gonna look you're gonna look amazing. But the question is when the field whittles down, where are those undecided voters going and how do they latch on to you? How are they? appeal how how do you appeal messaging wise to them and ao c started a a pivot to to the middle the most clear one yet calling woke one crazy and honestly we will probably be repeating that for the next year and a half. That's that's a really notable quote that I think she hopes lives in the minds of voters to basically say look I'm I'm practical here. Okay. I'm not I'm not for or I'm not against Thanksgiving, right? I I think I think that
Garth: Right, no, exactly.
Jacob Studwell: was that was maybe the straw that broke counts back. What's interesting is everybody and their mother did endorse Graham Platner. So discernment aside, like there's discernment and then there's getting things wrong. and I think they just kinda got one right here. I don't know if it was lucky or not, but they
Garth: Well, I I I you know, I d I'm not so sure it i it's lucky. I mean, especially if we stay on the AOC line of thinking here, you know, sh that coming out on Sunday, two days before the vote, talking about herself, talking about her future, talking about, you know, where she sees the platform going, that's calculated to me. That's saying, Okay, Hong is the sacrificial lamb, we can't get behind this and we're going to pivot a different direction. Now
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: Again, you gotta feel sorry for Hong considering what the polling was telling her. And, you know, she did, you know, in Milwaukee County. I mean, if if if Crawley's from Milwaukee County, that's his his bread and butter. I mean, sh he barely beat Hong by two percentage points. I mean, we're talking about 3,000 votes there. So I I think AOC and Co., well, especially AOC, if she had backed Hong, she runs away with it. She runs away
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: with it. But again. Hong represents a different piece of the party that isn't the the main part of the party. It's it's not the party that they need come November.
Jacob Studwell: Now I I don't have a second screen, so you're gonna have to give me the pricing, the live pricing, but in my eyes, I I think AOC was probably fifty-five percent to run for president, something like forty-five percent to run for president.
Garth: Sixty three sixty sixty I think it's sixty three percent thirty four. Sixty three thirty five.
Jacob Studwell: Okay. And has that gone up? Because I would run that up after her comments on Sunday and after this DSA loss, interestingly enough.
Garth: you know, sh she's up three cents in the last seven days for president. and right where she's at with with with the Senate. I mean I I get in many ways that. I understand the comments. I mean there was obviously some good trading on on Sunday.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: but yeah, it's or or just actually it's I think it's Saturday. but you know, i it's it's still quite a ways to go. And she's still forming and I think the big bump will come after November. I mean, that this is we're we're testing messages, right? I mean, this is the time to do it. Who am
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Right.
Garth: I gonna back? Am I gonna back this person or that person? Okay, Grand Platiner, we all got burned. Do we want to get burned again? No, we
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: don't. So Hong, we pull back on. We went in with Al Saeed. Now who's gonna be the next candidate? Mom Donnie was was a big winner as well. I mean, so you you can see that how
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: she could be building that message, if you will, and and that. positioning of what the progressive party should be, a progressive party. Progressive movement should be.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think I'm just gonna say I love that contract so much. I I'm in love with a a sixty-three cent AOC running for president contract. Now you're right though, I don't think she's gonna be probably even the first batch to announce her per candidacy for president. She will probably
Garth: No. No.
Jacob Studwell: be in the back half when people have strong questions. You're gonna get more of the peep. Buddha judges who have nothing to do announcing first, right?
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: and and less of the AOC, John Ossa, people who are like busy generally are going to get to it much later. So while you're right, there's time. I I can't say enough that I love that AOC running for president contract. I think this pivot to the middle is is just kind of reading the room, understanding the electorate.
Garth: Yep. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: and yeah, I mean I honestly I like AOC's chances better too. So like if you tell me how much she is in the actual Denom nomination market, it's it's
Garth: She has she's sh she's just under underneath Ossof and and Gavin Newsom who've all all come back down to earth a little bit. I you know, you you you you're
Jacob Studwell: Right, right.
Garth: right. I i it's like if if you think about the timing, right? So she's testing her message, who she's backing, you know, she's doing the work, the ground groundwork. You know, you have the midterms, Democrats come back into control the s the house. Now she's got her own pulpit there. She can do as much sound making as she wants,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: ground shaking, if you will.
Jacob Studwell: Ha ha ha.
Garth: and and yeah, I mean i it it primes her perfectly for for a run for the presidency come or not. I mean she could easily she she'll have the choice as opposed to having to like make a move first. And I think you got that totally right. I mean it you know, contract runs to the end of 2027. I mean that's sets up beautifully. She gets a
Jacob Studwell: Mm.
Garth: a year of of of rollicking Trump administration, using Trump as her foil. And then she can hop in or Yeah. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: Potentially with a majority, you know, she'll be in the majority there. most likely. That's what all the the
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: models are showing. So it it'll be interesting. It'll be interesting. Honestly, the only reason I say I love the presidency contract is because she didn't need to pivot to the middle for the New York Senate seat. That was hers no matter what. It didn't matter what she really did or said. That was her seat if she wanted it, but clearly she is interested in. going further and doing more and creating bigger coalitions. And I will say those are the most successful candidates. Those are the most successful candidates that actually go the distance, that actually build extremely tested coalitions. And I also think that really is the takeaway from the whole primary season. If we're starting to wrap up a little bit, I think there's much less interesting races on the on the horizon. There might be a few here or there, but last night was really the the big blowout. And if we look at how primaries have tested different candidates, it tells you how much the Democrats missed out on a short primary process in 2024. Because when you put a spotlight on a candidate, they either get sharper or they don't succeed. And that's pretty much how it's supposed to work, right?
Garth: Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: So you see Hong, you shine a spotlight on a person like Hong who, you know. doesn't like holidays and is a little bit static and robotic, not winning those those endorsements and it doesn't work out. It doesn't work out, even though the polling is there. It just it doesn't happen. and I also think the whole Mandela Barnes dropping out, I mean the the dropouts
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: this year have been so impactful on these primary
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: races because they're typically, you know, three, four candidates So if you're a candidate with like seven, eight, nine, ten percent, and you drop out, and you you're usually similar to another candidate. So even if you don't endorse, your people are gonna flock somewhere else. So all the polling before Mandela Barnes dropped out, basically throw that in the garbage. but but one more thing on polling
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: before I let you go. I have to say that just because this polling round, this whole month basically, last 30 days plus. Has been putrid and it has been. I'm not gonna lie, it's been very bad.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: It doesn't mean the general election polling is going to be bad. So I would not expect big giant swings outside of margin of error, especially because we're gonna have a lot more polling. It's going to be much easier to guess the electorate. The the primary in Wisconsin was open. So that is really, really hard to figure out. There was a lot of undecided. So don't throw the general election polling out with the bathwater. Right. You can
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: throw out the primary polling, that's totally fine. always a warning there. Primary polling is not successful, but come the general election, trust the polling a little bit more than you you have been, even if you're a little
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: scarred.
Garth: I I mean you're right about the open primary p thing. I mean, Republicans spent millions of dollars to to promote Hong and and you know, Democrats do the same thing, you know, when they see a candidate they think that they're gonna you know, have better success at. You know, i i it's this this astroturfing, I believe we call it, right? Where we, you know, go out of our way to to push or or enhance another candidate's success because we think that we'll have a b much better chance in the general. And and I think this is probably a pretty good case. I th I think it's just interesting how wide off the mark the the last two weeks have been when it comes to the polling in Michigan and and and but and I'm maybe we'll just chalk it up to the fact that it's the summer and people have other things better to do than answer polls.
Jacob Studwell: Maybe. I mean that's fair, but I also think there are structural challenges with polling. And I think we know for a fact that polling in the past has underrepresented that rural conservative voter or or rural lean conservative voter, I should say. because they're not necessarily tried and true his classical c conservatives. They're just rural and they they lean Trump in a bunch of elections and we know those were underrepresented. And maybe now we're starting to learn that those socialist voters, those far left voters who maybe they they're younger, those people are are starting to be overrepresented by these polling structures. So we're starting to find patterns
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: and and and understand. So not that I would systematically underestimate a socialist candidate just because of this, but it's something to watch out for. It's something to know, it's something to watch out
Garth: Definitely.
Jacob Studwell: for. and yeah, but I I I still I I believe in polling, I really do, especially polling aggregation, not necessarily individual polls, but if we're taking 10 different polls you know, two weeks out from the election and we're aggregating together, it's gonna give us a really good sense. And and the markets think the same way, right? There's a reason Hong was 91 cents going into last night. It's that's where the money flows. So let's not, again, not throw the polling out. Beautiful. all right. try trying to think. Okay, cr Cronin won in Connecticut. I think that's Cronin or
Garth: I love it.
Jacob Studwell: See, this is the old school way. This is the old school way. And what's funny, Garth, is I don't even really need to know his name. I just know that
Garth: huh.
Jacob Studwell: he was seventy-eight and he lost in a primary. And that really should be the large takeaway here. Thank you. Thank
Garth: Larson, John Larson,
Jacob Studwell: you.
Garth: going for his fifteenth term in office, lost to a forty-seven-year-old former Hartford Mayor, Luke Bronnen.
Jacob Studwell: Tells you a lot. Tells you a lot. I mean
Garth: Tells you a lot. I mean I I like the quote. Part of leadership is knowing when it's time to pass the torch. Thank you, Mr. Lar
Jacob Studwell: that's the from the winner.
Garth: that's from Mr. Bronnen, yeah. Over on Mr. Larson, going for his, you know, fifteenth term. totally. Totally. Totally.
Jacob Studwell: I it's it's a backhanded compliment, right? It's a joke. It's c it's clearly just it's it's a beautiful joke and I good good for him, I guess, but there there's no love lost there. Clearly he's not happy. And guess what? Tony Evers gets his guy in in Wisconsin. So if you are in
Garth: In Wisconsin. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: your 70s and you are willing to endorse your chosen person, you actually end up having more political capital. So some lessons here for some politicians across the board.
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: if we're moving on to there was a good race in Alabama in a redistricting situation. basically it was a majority black district that got cut up a little bit. It's now like Trump plus twenty two. I really want to watch that more for the general than for the primaries. I think there are some, you know, the the incumbent there may be able to overcome that like Cook Politico plus 22 swing if they're an incumbent, and there's a D plus 10 environment. I I always curious to look at the the dummymandering as they call it. So that might be a a good dummymander to look out for. That was a special primary last night. let's see. Anything else across the board that was too too interesting? I don't I don't I
Garth: Well, you know, I mean i i t I wan I wanna just go back to the Larson thing because the AP covers this real fast and and it's it's something that we just put up on on the homepage talking about GOP retirements, and how they may alter the race, especially i in hindsight
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: of the RNC chair coming out on Sunday on the talk shows or on the Hill talk show, about, you know, the Republicans holding both the House and the Senate. And, you know, the reality is, you know, there's quite a bit of flux going on. in the house, especially. I mean, you've got thirty different members running for other offices, thirty that are retiring, and ten that have already lost a primary. I mean, those are big numbers, big flux numbers. And once you've got people disappearing for other jobs or retiring, you you're losing that incumbent, you know, strength, that that stronghold.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Garth: and so, you know, Larson's a little bit of a different case because it's more about okay, he's really old and, you know, there's some anger about governing and you know, maybe he shouldn't be doing it anymore, blah, blah, blah. but I I I what just wanted to highlight real quick, especially after the piece on Sunday, from the R and C chair and and just kind of how that impacts because you know it's money, it's a money equation. You know, you if you're t removing somebody who's been successful, you instantly
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Garth: have to spend more money in that district to make sure to and find a replacement, a qualified replacement. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. You have to build the structures. You have to build the actual structures all over again with a new pot of money with a new person. It it definitely wipes away a lot of banked resources and money. but let's just say resources, because it's more than just dollars and cents, right? Even though the Republicans have
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yeah, resources. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: a big money advantage and they will, I think you're right. I think it's a really, really good point, and I think it's cause and effect. Right. So I it I mean, the the RNC chair basically sounded like he didn't live in America, saying, no, it's gonna be such a clean sweep for the Republicans come November. That weighs on you when you're not speaking in reality, okay? And and you're gonna lose like easy races, like in com and guess what? If you look at Mike Lindell, we haven't gotten to my pillow yet. That's a big loss. He just lost his job as CEO as of My Pillow. And now he loses the primary too. I mean, it's a rough week for him. Now he's denying the election,
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: yada yada, whatever it is. But that was a Trump endorsement for a candidate who, you know, not very good. Not a very good candidate.
Garth: No, n never was a good candidate. I mean and well, I was was seeing a statistic about Trump and Lindell. You know, Trump is like two hundred and thirty four, two hundred and thirty-seven in his endorsements. Some s this is a really dumb number, like i of super high success. super high success,
Jacob Studwell: Right. It's a dumb number. Very bad number.
Garth: but but like and so Lindell becomes one of like the seven who hasn't won. And you know, he just was never a good candidate. And I and I'm a little surprised that Demouth effectively, I mean, in the market, struggled so much. I mean, again, it but if if if you're two
Jacob Studwell: Right. It was weird.
Garth: hundred and thirty for two hundred and thirty seven as a trader, you're looking at that for Trump endorsements. Well, you say, Okay, well, he's got Trump endorsement. I mean, why not? You know, we've seen crazier things. And it's not like he's
Jacob Studwell: Yeah.
Garth: a nobody. I mean, name w name recognition wise, maybe not necessarily for the for good things. but you know, no, I just I yeah, he got he got smoked.
Jacob Studwell: You if you're if you're a true trader, you're looking at the real numbers, you're removing at least 200 of those endorsements out because they're uncompetitive. I mean, there's
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: there's a few on my hand that I can like recall immediately. I mean, the Steve Toth primary is a good one where that was a competitive primary. He was trying to unseat incumbent my god, I I can't remember, remind me. Dan Crenshaw. Thank you, Dan Crenshaw.
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: trying to unsee Dan Cr, like that's a true endorsement. That's a tough endorsement in a race that, you know, he was going up against a three or four-time incumbent. So that's in the numbers, but there's probably at least 200 of them that are in the garbage. So he's probably closer to like 60 or 70 percent instead of 90 percent, which
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: is like okay, well, then it comes down to candidate quality. If you're losing 30% of the time your endorsements and you see the candidate that you pick. I mean, it reminds me, you know, in Georgia, he also lost in an endorsement battle there. they're coming pretty,
Garth: Yes, for governor.
Jacob Studwell: pretty fast and furious now, I think, more and more. And that's because the president is also not necessarily living with the realities of the environment. And and we just got the CPI numbers this morning, by the way. Inflation is not down to where Republicans would want it to be. And D the the Francesca Hong, the DSA of it all seems almost wrapped up for the season. They don't have much boogeyman to go off of. And I where do you go from here? If you're Donald Trump and you're staring at a a split or or a full Democratic Congress and you're gonna have to be facing that for the next two years, I don't know, Garth, what what happens with that situation?
Garth: I mean that's the part I don't understand. Like, if you're if you're building legacy, right, as most second term presidents do, how can you not work your tuckass off to make sure that you have as clear of a path as possible? I mean Democratic House is gonna be a nuisance. They're going to investigate the crap out of the Trump administration. You know, God forbid they lose the Senate. I
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: mean He could get imp impeached. I mean i i i i i i it's it's way more likely.
Jacob Studwell: Right. That's what I'm thinking. I I think it's it's way more likely. It goes from zero percent to I don't know, fifteen?
Garth: A thousand percent. No, it goes to like a thousand percent. I mean they've already they've already drafted the articles. I mean it it's
Jacob Studwell: N well, I I would say Okay, okay, but but he he he is way I'm talking more about being removed from office. I think that is more worrisome. I think d the Democrats fall right into Trump's hands if they impeach him with no follow through again. That clearly did not help them the first couple times. It really just gave them a lot of fodder. So I actually don't think they'll pursue articles of impeachment if they don't have the votes in the Senate. But like he's not that far from Flipping a bunch of Republicans in the Senate and like actually being on death's doorknob. And if Republicans can say, We
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: can just slay the dragon right now and like move on with our lives and all look better for it. And this is the self-preservation mode that we've talked about for nine months now, eight months, whatever it is, he's so much closer to that. He really is like you know, honestly, a thousand times isn't a crazy like number to throw out there. He is that much closer to being removed from office. Not that I think it's gonna happen. Again, I say 10%
Garth: Yes. Right.
Jacob Studwell: or or less, but he's so much closer to it now.
Garth: I it just again, it just it flies in the face of all the things he's talking about. He n he's been in office for six years. He knows how Washington works. He knows how little can get done. You know,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: and and Godfrey, you bid you split the you know, split control of the two chambers. You know, you're not getting anything done. And if you even if you do some executive actions, the next administration will come in and rip them down and you know. It's just it it boggles my mind.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah, and and I know who's not getting anything done. It's definitely the Senate 'cause they're enjoying their recess and I Garth I think
Garth: yeah. All five weeks.
Jacob Studwell: yeah. What a what a beautiful, beautiful recess they've got. All right, we'll
Garth: Gorgeous.
Jacob Studwell: we'll go on a six day recess ourselves. Garth, any closing thoughts here?
Garth: No, no. I think I think we're good. Let's let's enjoy the s last days of summer and and really get ready for this midterm run-in. I will say, we do have a two-week sprint to the August 25th runoff in South Carolina between Darlene Norton
Jacob Studwell: Yes.
Garth: Graham and rep Ralph Norman, I believe is his name.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, and and traders really like Darlene after her performance last night. So I'd probably just see her to kind of skate further and closer to that nomination come the twenty-fifth. I guess we'll see what shakes things up. But Darlene, really uncontroversial candidate here, so it'll be tough to shake that momentum.
Garth: Pretty much agreed.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. All right, amazing. thanks everyone for listening to the predicted podcast. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckam, follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, Deezer, Twitter, or sorry. X dot com slash at predict it pod, youtube dot com slash at predict it official. catch us next week and have a good one.
Garth: See guys.
Garth: totally. Yeah. I mean I think it's it's definitely definitely full clap. Yeah. I mean three thirty I think Decision Desk called it at two twenty in the morning. A P got there at three thirty four in the morning. you know, that's pretty spiffy if you ask me. I mean you
Jacob Studwell: For a race within one percentage point, how much better can you do, right? Right.
Garth: With three thousand three thousand votes. I mean that's pretty awesome. I mean Whis
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Okay.
Garth: Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, they're all doing a good job. The midwestern states.
Jacob Studwell: Everyone, everyone putting in the work. We we appreciate you. 4 a.m. calls are still tough. I still went to bed, you know, pre-call. actually I think when I went to bed, Hong was was still up to like 75 cents, something like that. So traders got flipped around, I think it was about four times, four different times. Hong going into the night was around still around ninety-one cents going into the night. and then traders got a little skittish, probably lived closer to seventy, seventy-five cents for most of the night. And then they started to really learn their lesson deep and late. and then and then Crowley took it. I think it's surprising in just a polling context and just, you know, double digit leads in in primaries are are not safe. I think that's important to note. I we were comparing it to to soccer at one point. That you know double double digit leads are like three Three O leads essentially.
Garth: Two two zero two zero leads the worst kind of lead you can have. It's
Jacob Studwell: Two zero leads, two zero leads. But, you know, in a primary it feels something like okay, maybe it's a two-zero lead in like a a high school soccer game, something like that, where it can turn, turn real, real fast. and honestly, this is clear this is the DSA sacrificial lamb here. This is the clearest DSA loss, and the most notable one. And frankly, it was a pretty nationalized race given it was a governor's primary in a swing state. In a swing state, but it it it certainly tells you a lot about the Democratic electorate. just in in terms of how much of the vote share is there for a socialist. I mean I was taking a closer look at where Madison is, I think it's Dane County. you know, no she she did not run it up in in where Madison was, the the most liberal part of the state. She didn't really run it up too much in any individual county. And I think that's going to be the restrictor valve here for any socialist candidates. and and before I pivot to to where I want to go with this, I don't know. Any other takeaways? There are lots of other good house race primaries and and such. Do do we want to hit on anything else?
Garth: Well you you right were right about Dane County. I mean she only won by eight eight percent forty-four to thirty-six according to the AP. you know, I think the most galling thing here, from a from a democratic socialist perspective or a progressist b perspective, is how they left Hong out to dry. I mean,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yep.
Garth: no endorsements from AOC, no endorsement from Tammy Baldwin, no endorsement from Mark Pokan. No endorsement from Bernie Sanders. I mean, they left her high and dry in her moment of need. Tony Evers, did he do that? No, he didn't. He got behind Crowley in a late, or albeit late endorsement. But i i
Jacob Studwell: Right. Right.
Garth: it's kinda to me fascinating how you know the The team showed up in Michigan for El Said, but the team did not show up for Hong. I mean they think? Do they know? Do they have some polling that that says or or some sort of data point that says that Hong was a cooked goose or a cooked turkey in this case come November? you know
Jacob Studwell: Not for her, not for her.
Garth: not for her. So I mean it so I I I I think that
Jacob Studwell: No, that's fair.
Garth: part that's the most interesting part to me.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, no, you're you're right. I think they have a lot of really good discernment tactics here. I I would love to read into it further. And that's where I'm I'm going with with the analysis here is that this is a big result for AOC in that she did not get behind this candidate. and and what you put in the newsletter just a few days ago, like the woke one comment, I think she's starting to notice that only getting the progressives in a Democratic primary, yes, maybe it's better than In 2016, there's more vote share there, but there's still not enough for a a true majority, just a plurality. And in a big field, sure, that's great. If you're getting 25% in a 10-candidate field, amazing. You're gonna look you're gonna look amazing. But the question is when the field whittles down, where are those undecided voters going and how do they latch on to you? How are they? appeal how how do you appeal messaging wise to them and ao c started a a pivot to to the middle the most clear one yet calling woke one crazy and honestly we will probably be repeating that for the next year and a half. That's that's a really notable quote that I think she hopes lives in the minds of voters to basically say look I'm I'm practical here. Okay. I'm not I'm not for or I'm not against Thanksgiving, right? I I think I think that
Garth: Right, no, exactly.
Jacob Studwell: was that was maybe the straw that broke counts back. What's interesting is everybody and their mother did endorse Graham Platner. So discernment aside, like there's discernment and then there's getting things wrong. and I think they just kinda got one right here. I don't know if it was lucky or not, but they
Garth: Well, I I I you know, I d I'm not so sure it i it's lucky. I mean, especially if we stay on the AOC line of thinking here, you know, sh that coming out on Sunday, two days before the vote, talking about herself, talking about her future, talking about, you know, where she sees the platform going, that's calculated to me. That's saying, Okay, Hong is the sacrificial lamb, we can't get behind this and we're going to pivot a different direction. Now
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: Again, you gotta feel sorry for Hong considering what the polling was telling her. And, you know, she did, you know, in Milwaukee County. I mean, if if if Crawley's from Milwaukee County, that's his his bread and butter. I mean, sh he barely beat Hong by two percentage points. I mean, we're talking about 3,000 votes there. So I I think AOC and Co., well, especially AOC, if she had backed Hong, she runs away with it. She runs away
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Garth: with it. But again. Hong represents a different piece of the party that isn't the the main part of the party. It's it's not the party that they need come November.
Jacob Studwell: Now I I don't have a second screen, so you're gonna have to give me the pricing, the live pricing, but in my eyes, I I think AOC was probably fifty-five percent to run for president, something like forty-five percent to run for president.
Garth: Sixty three sixty sixty I think it's sixty three percent thirty four. Sixty three thirty five.
Jacob Studwell: Okay. And has that gone up? Because I would run that up after her comments on Sunday and after this DSA loss, interestingly enough.
Garth: you know, sh she's up three cents in the last seven days for president. and right where she's at with with with the Senate. I mean I I get in many ways that. I understand the comments. I mean there was obviously some good trading on on Sunday.
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: but yeah, it's or or just actually it's I think it's Saturday. but you know, i it's it's still quite a ways to go. And she's still forming and I think the big bump will come after November. I mean, that this is we're we're testing messages, right? I mean, this is the time to do it. Who am
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Right.
Garth: I gonna back? Am I gonna back this person or that person? Okay, Grand Platiner, we all got burned. Do we want to get burned again? No, we
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: don't. So Hong, we pull back on. We went in with Al Saeed. Now who's gonna be the next candidate? Mom Donnie was was a big winner as well. I mean, so you you can see that how
Jacob Studwell: Right.
Garth: she could be building that message, if you will, and and that. positioning of what the progressive party should be, a progressive party. Progressive movement should be.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think I'm just gonna say I love that contract so much. I I'm in love with a a sixty-three cent AOC running for president contract. Now you're right though, I don't think she's gonna be probably even the first batch to announce her per candidacy for president. She will probably
Garth: No. No.
Jacob Studwell: be in the back half when people have strong questions. You're gonna get more of the peep. Buddha judges who have nothing to do announcing first, right?
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: and and less of the AOC, John Ossa, people who are like busy generally are going to get to it much later. So while you're right, there's time. I I can't say enough that I love that AOC running for president contract. I think this pivot to the middle is is just kind of reading the room, understanding the electorate.
Garth: Yep. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: and yeah, I mean I honestly I like AOC's chances better too. So like if you tell me how much she is in the actual Denom nomination market, it's it's
Garth: She has she's sh she's just under underneath Ossof and and Gavin Newsom who've all all come back down to earth a little bit. I you know, you you you you're
Jacob Studwell: Right, right.
Garth: right. I i it's like if if you think about the timing, right? So she's testing her message, who she's backing, you know, she's doing the work, the ground groundwork. You know, you have the midterms, Democrats come back into control the s the house. Now she's got her own pulpit there. She can do as much sound making as she wants,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: ground shaking, if you will.
Jacob Studwell: Ha ha ha.
Garth: and and yeah, I mean i it it primes her perfectly for for a run for the presidency come or not. I mean she could easily she she'll have the choice as opposed to having to like make a move first. And I think you got that totally right. I mean it you know, contract runs to the end of 2027. I mean that's sets up beautifully. She gets a
Jacob Studwell: Mm.
Garth: a year of of of rollicking Trump administration, using Trump as her foil. And then she can hop in or Yeah. Yep.
Jacob Studwell: Potentially with a majority, you know, she'll be in the majority there. most likely. That's what all the the
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: models are showing. So it it'll be interesting. It'll be interesting. Honestly, the only reason I say I love the presidency contract is because she didn't need to pivot to the middle for the New York Senate seat. That was hers no matter what. It didn't matter what she really did or said. That was her seat if she wanted it, but clearly she is interested in. going further and doing more and creating bigger coalitions. And I will say those are the most successful candidates. Those are the most successful candidates that actually go the distance, that actually build extremely tested coalitions. And I also think that really is the takeaway from the whole primary season. If we're starting to wrap up a little bit, I think there's much less interesting races on the on the horizon. There might be a few here or there, but last night was really the the big blowout. And if we look at how primaries have tested different candidates, it tells you how much the Democrats missed out on a short primary process in 2024. Because when you put a spotlight on a candidate, they either get sharper or they don't succeed. And that's pretty much how it's supposed to work, right?
Garth: Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: So you see Hong, you shine a spotlight on a person like Hong who, you know. doesn't like holidays and is a little bit static and robotic, not winning those those endorsements and it doesn't work out. It doesn't work out, even though the polling is there. It just it doesn't happen. and I also think the whole Mandela Barnes dropping out, I mean the the dropouts
Garth: Yep.
Jacob Studwell: this year have been so impactful on these primary
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: races because they're typically, you know, three, four candidates So if you're a candidate with like seven, eight, nine, ten percent, and you drop out, and you you're usually similar to another candidate. So even if you don't endorse, your people are gonna flock somewhere else. So all the polling before Mandela Barnes dropped out, basically throw that in the garbage. but but one more thing on polling
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: before I let you go. I have to say that just because this polling round, this whole month basically, last 30 days plus. Has been putrid and it has been. I'm not gonna lie, it's been very bad.
Garth: Yeah. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: It doesn't mean the general election polling is going to be bad. So I would not expect big giant swings outside of margin of error, especially because we're gonna have a lot more polling. It's going to be much easier to guess the electorate. The the primary in Wisconsin was open. So that is really, really hard to figure out. There was a lot of undecided. So don't throw the general election polling out with the bathwater. Right. You can
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: throw out the primary polling, that's totally fine. always a warning there. Primary polling is not successful, but come the general election, trust the polling a little bit more than you you have been, even if you're a little
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: scarred.
Garth: I I mean you're right about the open primary p thing. I mean, Republicans spent millions of dollars to to promote Hong and and you know, Democrats do the same thing, you know, when they see a candidate they think that they're gonna you know, have better success at. You know, i i it's this this astroturfing, I believe we call it, right? Where we, you know, go out of our way to to push or or enhance another candidate's success because we think that we'll have a b much better chance in the general. And and I think this is probably a pretty good case. I th I think it's just interesting how wide off the mark the the last two weeks have been when it comes to the polling in Michigan and and and but and I'm maybe we'll just chalk it up to the fact that it's the summer and people have other things better to do than answer polls.
Jacob Studwell: Maybe. I mean that's fair, but I also think there are structural challenges with polling. And I think we know for a fact that polling in the past has underrepresented that rural conservative voter or or rural lean conservative voter, I should say. because they're not necessarily tried and true his classical c conservatives. They're just rural and they they lean Trump in a bunch of elections and we know those were underrepresented. And maybe now we're starting to learn that those socialist voters, those far left voters who maybe they they're younger, those people are are starting to be overrepresented by these polling structures. So we're starting to find patterns
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: and and and understand. So not that I would systematically underestimate a socialist candidate just because of this, but it's something to watch out for. It's something to know, it's something to watch out
Garth: Definitely.
Jacob Studwell: for. and yeah, but I I I still I I believe in polling, I really do, especially polling aggregation, not necessarily individual polls, but if we're taking 10 different polls you know, two weeks out from the election and we're aggregating together, it's gonna give us a really good sense. And and the markets think the same way, right? There's a reason Hong was 91 cents going into last night. It's that's where the money flows. So let's not, again, not throw the polling out. Beautiful. all right. try trying to think. Okay, cr Cronin won in Connecticut. I think that's Cronin or
Garth: I love it.
Jacob Studwell: See, this is the old school way. This is the old school way. And what's funny, Garth, is I don't even really need to know his name. I just know that
Garth: huh.
Jacob Studwell: he was seventy-eight and he lost in a primary. And that really should be the large takeaway here. Thank you. Thank
Garth: Larson, John Larson,
Jacob Studwell: you.
Garth: going for his fifteenth term in office, lost to a forty-seven-year-old former Hartford Mayor, Luke Bronnen.
Jacob Studwell: Tells you a lot. Tells you a lot. I mean
Garth: Tells you a lot. I mean I I like the quote. Part of leadership is knowing when it's time to pass the torch. Thank you, Mr. Lar
Jacob Studwell: that's the from the winner.
Garth: that's from Mr. Bronnen, yeah. Over on Mr. Larson, going for his, you know, fifteenth term. totally. Totally. Totally.
Jacob Studwell: I it's it's a backhanded compliment, right? It's a joke. It's c it's clearly just it's it's a beautiful joke and I good good for him, I guess, but there there's no love lost there. Clearly he's not happy. And guess what? Tony Evers gets his guy in in Wisconsin. So if you are in
Garth: In Wisconsin. Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: your 70s and you are willing to endorse your chosen person, you actually end up having more political capital. So some lessons here for some politicians across the board.
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: if we're moving on to there was a good race in Alabama in a redistricting situation. basically it was a majority black district that got cut up a little bit. It's now like Trump plus twenty two. I really want to watch that more for the general than for the primaries. I think there are some, you know, the the incumbent there may be able to overcome that like Cook Politico plus 22 swing if they're an incumbent, and there's a D plus 10 environment. I I always curious to look at the the dummymandering as they call it. So that might be a a good dummymander to look out for. That was a special primary last night. let's see. Anything else across the board that was too too interesting? I don't I don't I
Garth: Well, you know, I mean i i t I wan I wanna just go back to the Larson thing because the AP covers this real fast and and it's it's something that we just put up on on the homepage talking about GOP retirements, and how they may alter the race, especially i in hindsight
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: of the RNC chair coming out on Sunday on the talk shows or on the Hill talk show, about, you know, the Republicans holding both the House and the Senate. And, you know, the reality is, you know, there's quite a bit of flux going on. in the house, especially. I mean, you've got thirty different members running for other offices, thirty that are retiring, and ten that have already lost a primary. I mean, those are big numbers, big flux numbers. And once you've got people disappearing for other jobs or retiring, you you're losing that incumbent, you know, strength, that that stronghold.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Mm-hmm.
Garth: and so, you know, Larson's a little bit of a different case because it's more about okay, he's really old and, you know, there's some anger about governing and you know, maybe he shouldn't be doing it anymore, blah, blah, blah. but I I I what just wanted to highlight real quick, especially after the piece on Sunday, from the R and C chair and and just kind of how that impacts because you know it's money, it's a money equation. You know, you if you're t removing somebody who's been successful, you instantly
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm. Yeah.
Garth: have to spend more money in that district to make sure to and find a replacement, a qualified replacement. So
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah. You have to build the structures. You have to build the actual structures all over again with a new pot of money with a new person. It it definitely wipes away a lot of banked resources and money. but let's just say resources, because it's more than just dollars and cents, right? Even though the Republicans have
Garth: Mm-hmm. Yeah, resources. Exactly.
Jacob Studwell: a big money advantage and they will, I think you're right. I think it's a really, really good point, and I think it's cause and effect. Right. So I it I mean, the the RNC chair basically sounded like he didn't live in America, saying, no, it's gonna be such a clean sweep for the Republicans come November. That weighs on you when you're not speaking in reality, okay? And and you're gonna lose like easy races, like in com and guess what? If you look at Mike Lindell, we haven't gotten to my pillow yet. That's a big loss. He just lost his job as CEO as of My Pillow. And now he loses the primary too. I mean, it's a rough week for him. Now he's denying the election,
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: yada yada, whatever it is. But that was a Trump endorsement for a candidate who, you know, not very good. Not a very good candidate.
Garth: No, n never was a good candidate. I mean and well, I was was seeing a statistic about Trump and Lindell. You know, Trump is like two hundred and thirty four, two hundred and thirty-seven in his endorsements. Some s this is a really dumb number, like i of super high success. super high success,
Jacob Studwell: Right. It's a dumb number. Very bad number.
Garth: but but like and so Lindell becomes one of like the seven who hasn't won. And you know, he just was never a good candidate. And I and I'm a little surprised that Demouth effectively, I mean, in the market, struggled so much. I mean, again, it but if if if you're two
Jacob Studwell: Right. It was weird.
Garth: hundred and thirty for two hundred and thirty seven as a trader, you're looking at that for Trump endorsements. Well, you say, Okay, well, he's got Trump endorsement. I mean, why not? You know, we've seen crazier things. And it's not like he's
Jacob Studwell: Yeah.
Garth: a nobody. I mean, name w name recognition wise, maybe not necessarily for the for good things. but you know, no, I just I yeah, he got he got smoked.
Jacob Studwell: You if you're if you're a true trader, you're looking at the real numbers, you're removing at least 200 of those endorsements out because they're uncompetitive. I mean, there's
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: there's a few on my hand that I can like recall immediately. I mean, the Steve Toth primary is a good one where that was a competitive primary. He was trying to unseat incumbent my god, I I can't remember, remind me. Dan Crenshaw. Thank you, Dan Crenshaw.
Garth: Yes.
Jacob Studwell: trying to unsee Dan Cr, like that's a true endorsement. That's a tough endorsement in a race that, you know, he was going up against a three or four-time incumbent. So that's in the numbers, but there's probably at least 200 of them that are in the garbage. So he's probably closer to like 60 or 70 percent instead of 90 percent, which
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: is like okay, well, then it comes down to candidate quality. If you're losing 30% of the time your endorsements and you see the candidate that you pick. I mean, it reminds me, you know, in Georgia, he also lost in an endorsement battle there. they're coming pretty,
Garth: Yes, for governor.
Jacob Studwell: pretty fast and furious now, I think, more and more. And that's because the president is also not necessarily living with the realities of the environment. And and we just got the CPI numbers this morning, by the way. Inflation is not down to where Republicans would want it to be. And D the the Francesca Hong, the DSA of it all seems almost wrapped up for the season. They don't have much boogeyman to go off of. And I where do you go from here? If you're Donald Trump and you're staring at a a split or or a full Democratic Congress and you're gonna have to be facing that for the next two years, I don't know, Garth, what what happens with that situation?
Garth: I mean that's the part I don't understand. Like, if you're if you're building legacy, right, as most second term presidents do, how can you not work your tuckass off to make sure that you have as clear of a path as possible? I mean Democratic House is gonna be a nuisance. They're going to investigate the crap out of the Trump administration. You know, God forbid they lose the Senate. I
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: mean He could get imp impeached. I mean i i i i i i it's it's way more likely.
Jacob Studwell: Right. That's what I'm thinking. I I think it's it's way more likely. It goes from zero percent to I don't know, fifteen?
Garth: A thousand percent. No, it goes to like a thousand percent. I mean they've already they've already drafted the articles. I mean it it's
Jacob Studwell: N well, I I would say Okay, okay, but but he he he is way I'm talking more about being removed from office. I think that is more worrisome. I think d the Democrats fall right into Trump's hands if they impeach him with no follow through again. That clearly did not help them the first couple times. It really just gave them a lot of fodder. So I actually don't think they'll pursue articles of impeachment if they don't have the votes in the Senate. But like he's not that far from Flipping a bunch of Republicans in the Senate and like actually being on death's doorknob. And if Republicans can say, We
Garth: Yeah.
Jacob Studwell: can just slay the dragon right now and like move on with our lives and all look better for it. And this is the self-preservation mode that we've talked about for nine months now, eight months, whatever it is, he's so much closer to that. He really is like you know, honestly, a thousand times isn't a crazy like number to throw out there. He is that much closer to being removed from office. Not that I think it's gonna happen. Again, I say 10%
Garth: Yes. Right.
Jacob Studwell: or or less, but he's so much closer to it now.
Garth: I it just again, it just it flies in the face of all the things he's talking about. He n he's been in office for six years. He knows how Washington works. He knows how little can get done. You know,
Jacob Studwell: Mm-hmm.
Garth: and and Godfrey, you bid you split the you know, split control of the two chambers. You know, you're not getting anything done. And if you even if you do some executive actions, the next administration will come in and rip them down and you know. It's just it it boggles my mind.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. Yeah, and and I know who's not getting anything done. It's definitely the Senate 'cause they're enjoying their recess and I Garth I think
Garth: yeah. All five weeks.
Jacob Studwell: yeah. What a what a beautiful, beautiful recess they've got. All right, we'll
Garth: Gorgeous.
Jacob Studwell: we'll go on a six day recess ourselves. Garth, any closing thoughts here?
Garth: No, no. I think I think we're good. Let's let's enjoy the s last days of summer and and really get ready for this midterm run-in. I will say, we do have a two-week sprint to the August 25th runoff in South Carolina between Darlene Norton
Jacob Studwell: Yes.
Garth: Graham and rep Ralph Norman, I believe is his name.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah, and and traders really like Darlene after her performance last night. So I'd probably just see her to kind of skate further and closer to that nomination come the twenty-fifth. I guess we'll see what shakes things up. But Darlene, really uncontroversial candidate here, so it'll be tough to shake that momentum.
Garth: Pretty much agreed.
Jacob Studwell: Yeah. All right, amazing. thanks everyone for listening to the predicted podcast. Jacob Studwell, Garth Yuckam, follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, Deezer, Twitter, or sorry. X dot com slash at predict it pod, youtube dot com slash at predict it official. catch us next week and have a good one.
Garth: See guys.
