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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman, I'm joined as always, buy, my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter Ello.
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Speaker 2: Simon Chat.
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Speaker 3: How are we doing?
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Speaker 2: Dude?
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Speaker 1: Look, I'm about to embark on a few days of an adventure. I feel like I feel so freaking lucky. I cannot tell you. I'll be in Miami. Two of my closest buddies, Andy and Matt, who grew up with me. We all grew up together outside Chicago. We all went to Indiana. We're all going to be at the game on Monday nights.
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Speaker 2: Will be there for the Bears.
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Speaker 1: Game on Sunday night. These are like, honest to God, not to get sentimental, just glorious opportunities and weekends that just don't come around that often. So I'm ready.
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Speaker 2: To roll, brother, ready to roll? Are you?
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Speaker 3: Yeah? No? I mean, like we talk all the times. The best time here.
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Speaker 4: If you love good football, right, it's the highest level being played and you're just fortunate enough that both your two favorite.
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Speaker 3: Teams are still here playing and it is. Let's see the date, January seventeenth. I can't believe it.
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Speaker 4: Chad's in the finals for the playoffs with his Indiana Hoosiers and the Bears. It's a real possibility where we're sitting here next week and they're playing for, you know, a championship of their own conference.
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Speaker 3: It's a crazy.
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Speaker 4: Time right now for Chad and a lot of like you said, a lot of Chicago fans, a lot of them have ties to Aghanis.
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Speaker 3: Of course, it's a great time for the Midwest.
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Speaker 1: Nice man coming, go Caleb A this divisional weekend version of the strip down in the room eavesdropping Sharper Square.
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Speaker 2: We're going to narrow it down to five. I know, five picks.
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Speaker 1: A lot of injury conversations, whether lines being impacted. You can see the dynamic contest line. Simon and I are playing at the free Sharper Square Pro Football pickup contest. If you've signed up to play at sharpersquare dot the volume dot com, you can track us in the contest at Chad and Simon BFF. Don't forget we're playing both sides and totals in the contest, Simon, we will lock in based on all the games. So we're gonna talk about all the games. There's only four of them. We're gonna go in order of what I think our top five are right now, not in the order of the schedule. So Seattle San Francisco under forty five and a half. This was Chad's choice. It continued to tick down. It's at forty five in some places forty four and a half. Elsewhere it is forty five and a half. In the contest. I think it's ticked down, maybe because of the Arnold news. I'm leaking a little bit of confidence. Something tells me that I know well, I know from Killer Sports there's a trend that when two teams have gone grossly under and the two times they've played, the third time goes over. But I just can't see schematically between the way the Seahawks are going to want to play this game and some of the limitations the Niners have on offense with the personnel on the field, this game feels like it should go under to me.
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Speaker 2: So I'm still on the under.
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Speaker 1: I want you to make me feel really good about it.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's still don't with you, but I saw that stat too. I think it's like, basically, if you blindly bet the over here, it's a fifty.
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Speaker 3: Seven percent success rate. Yes, that it's just a long term Like.
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Speaker 4: Chad said, these two teams technically, maybe that's what we've been missing here, Rick, because we both could not understand this totally.
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Speaker 3: And you know it's in.
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Speaker 4: The playoff, especially the week we're coming off. I feel like every bet we're gonna make is gonna have a a little leak of confidence here. I'm dugging on it. I still think un there's a play if anything. Seeing the Sam Donald news, I don't know about you, but it made me even happier for our bet early bet on the under, just because I mean, think about how much they use his legs outside the pocket and you know, get different looks from the defenses because it's we talked about all year that Sam Donald's not played well, but where he has played well is within the offense.
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Speaker 3: Get it to JSN.
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Speaker 4: That's been the key, right, so for when anytime the plays break down, he uses his legs. He's always looking for JSN is best receiver and it's been magical for them, right every time they need a third down. It feels like he finds that guy. So, you know, as soon as I saw that injury news, I did think this would pop at six and a half. It seems like the way they're talking, it's not they're trying to make it out to be not as serious, and the books reflect that. But like we're gonna go through it here, like all how the public's been anything like that. This is a game with a public has been hammering this under, and they've been hammering the Niners, and the pros have been hammering the Seahawks, and they've been hammering the over.
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Speaker 3: So we're definitely on the public side here.
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Speaker 4: We talked last week though the public does win the playoffs, that stuff doesn't really matter as much. And you know here, I'm still shocked to be seeing the seven. I'm still shocked to see it's heaven. But we talked about it's just there's that many injuries for them to forty nine ers, right, They're that banged up.
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Speaker 3: The books have to hang this one. So yeah, if.
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Speaker 4: We're if I had to pick a number here, if I had to say, well, more confident on the seven or more confident under, I would go with the under. I mean, if if you have to pick a sider, obviously I'm going the forty nine ers, but I still would like the underplane.
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Speaker 3: Just put about both.
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Speaker 4: I see these offenses playing right, I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup and ball control. So uh yeah, this one, like you said, tick down, was forty six.
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Speaker 3: Now, a lot of books show forty five.
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Speaker 4: A couple of them already moving to forty four and a half this morning, So uh.
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Speaker 3: Once once again we see if Sam Darno is fully cleared.
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Speaker 4: You know, we get the guy on the sideline before and saying, yow, he's running, well, he's looking good. This could steam up another point again, So I wouldn't be upset if you missed it. If your book showing forty five and a half or forty four and a half, I do think I might be able to get back to forty six, but I would grab the forty five and a half now just to be safe.
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Speaker 3: If if he does go out there and it's.
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Speaker 4: Not right and they do have to start Drew Locke, this might steam down four or five points on the total and maybe three four points on the side. So we're all waiting, baited breath here to hear what's going on with Sam Donald. But I just I cannot see him missing this game. If anything, he'll do what we see these other quarterbacks do you right, take the shot, whatever he needs to do, and just get out there and play on one leg. It's just this is what he just played for eighteen weeks to get to. I just can't see Sam Darna miss in this game.
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Speaker 3: All right.
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Speaker 1: Well, that the under was Chad's choice, so I got a feeling that's going to make it into our final five. The other day, you surprised me with a complete one eighty. I don't know if there was bullet involved from the professionals or not. And committed to the Patriots potentially being one of your biggest bets for the weekend. Patriots at minus three that minus three and a half at hard Rock Bet right now.
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Speaker 2: I mean, Miko Kanla's not playing.
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Speaker 1: As a factor, but it's just it's a challenging one because this Texans defense is so good. So give me your current take. Are you still leaning into the Patriots as field goal favorites.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's still leading into it.
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Speaker 4: You know, we've talked a little bit about it where just Houston defense.
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Speaker 3: They are historically great.
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Speaker 4: If there is a team that could go up to New England and pull off an upset, no doubt it is this Houston team.
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Speaker 3: But uh, it really is when of the games where.
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Speaker 4: You break it all down and you look at the different trends, everything, it feels like favorites is Themland team. I mean, we've obviously all seen this trend with Drake may is a favorite three points more eleven and zero straight up, nine to two against the spread. Even when you pull up back even further, this Texas team, they've won ten straight games. In the history of the NFL, teams that have won ten straight games are now they're an underdog in the Divisional round zero to four straight up, one and three against the spread, and that exactly yeah, And it's just we talk at the time how rare it is. Right a team has won ten straight and now they're a bigger than a three point dog on the road with a team that's great as a number two defense, it's not shocking to see how the split the bets are here. The public side definitely is the Patriots, right, You've seen even the start of the week. The more that the public money was coming on the Patriots team. But we've finally seen some professional money coming to the Statriers team and drive it up to three and a half when it's been sitting at three all week. It's starting to slowly move up now to three and a half. And you know, we talked we love the total. There star are forty ones up there, I mean hard rock here in Jersey, still forty one. That's another line that started ticking down a little bit right. It's come down now a couple of books down to forty and a half. And another game you could see if there's you know, a little bit of weather, could you usually drop a lotw forty sou points going to be really tight here, and we've talked a little bit about it. I just have so many questions with this Houston team where you know my question I do have about Drake Bay and this new England offense. I still think I'm gonna be able to move the ball as good as this Houston defense has been the one real weakness I've had his deep ball passing and teams that cantack the ball downfield.
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Speaker 3: Drake May is number two.
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Speaker 4: I believe in graded balls downfield and he was number one on EPA per play on balls throwing twenty yards downfield. Like he's been really impressive putting the ball downfield. If that's the only real weakness this Houston defense, you expect him to exploit it like that. I mean, we didn't talk too much about the Pittsburgh game, but Aaron Rodgers he had guys downfield. He just didn't have the time, right, he never had the time because he can't use his legs. Yeah, I mean that one that stands out to you, same to me is that he k metcalf.
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Speaker 2: Brutal change the game change then.
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Speaker 4: Be a touchdown, and then he didn't go to him for about two quarters after that. So you know, looking at this matchup throw aways for them to attack it and uh if if the number scares you off terribly Honestly, my biggest investment is once I heard those trends and the numbers about the money line, I've really invested heavily Newngland's money line. So once again, shop around, get the three. You don't have to take the three and a half. But we're stuck with a three and a half in the contest. I don't hate it because we're having a tough time finding the five here. But yeah, I think this is a type of game where Patriots just roll, not just offensively, defensively with Rabel and Houston. You know, we've seen CJ struggle on the road. I think losing Nikos is gonna be too much for him to overcome here. So it's it's a really interesting matchup effect that this number. I was sitting at three all week, and now we're heading into Saturday here and it's it's finally getting professional money.
00:10:51
Speaker 3: Get bumped at the minus three and a half I saw.
00:10:54
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, as soon as we're done here, I'm taking off to see the Indian Hoosiers playing the National College Football Championship Game at the very cool and famous hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, and thanks to our friends at hard Rock Bet, I will be there.
00:11:16
Speaker 2: Live.
00:11:19
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00:12:02
Speaker 2: Say hello to me.
00:12:03
Speaker 1: They'll be handing out profit boost tokens to use on the game, and select VIPs are getting instant bonus bets dropped right into their accounts.
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Speaker 2: Be sure to check it out.
00:12:17
Speaker 1: Can't wait to get down there, see folks at the hard Rock Hotel in Casino, San Francisco, Seattle. The number we just touched on it. We didn't go as deep as we did into the total. Ricky Piersoll San Francisco forty nine receiver is confident he's going to play. But there's no George Kittle, there's no Trent Williams.
00:12:38
Speaker 2: There could be real challenges for this running game.
00:12:41
Speaker 1: However, the Darnold News has changed some of the calculus on this simon. We didn't really dig deep on it, but I think we can both say that we will be on the Niners in this game. At plus seven and a half. It's now at seven in the contest, it's going to be at seven and a half.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I had a couple of ass right away. Is this not like when we were heavily back in the Seahawks against Carolina Panthers, right and that number one up to eight, you know, minus eight at one point in the Seahawks and they absolutely rolled that Panthers team.
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Speaker 3: And it's like, aren't you worried?
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Speaker 4: You guys are stepping in here with the Niners team and you know, playoffs are very different.
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Speaker 3: We talk out the teams play so tight.
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Speaker 4: The only thing that's giving me some type of pause would just be everyone I've talked to professionally and public wise is on this Niners team. It feels like I know some groups that cucharias and they're on the Seahawks, but money wise, guys, I respect, it's all Niners right now.
00:13:34
Speaker 3: So not shocked to see this one come down.
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Speaker 4: I'll hit you with the stab one more time that I really love from Evan Road teams.
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Speaker 3: I missed the playoffs last year.
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Speaker 4: That are the dog that are a dog in the divisional round twenty nine and fourteen, So sixty seven percent against the spread since two thousand and three.
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Speaker 3: So we talk all the time.
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Speaker 4: It's usually a team that's a little underrated. This Niners team is not that more people are comfortable betting them. And you know, I gave out that stat. Shanahan basically has been dominant, winning these games already three to zer divisional round as a dog straight up, which is really impressive.
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Speaker 3: But I did see this, this crazy.
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Speaker 4: Stat basically about teams that were underdogs in a wildcard round and now they're in the divisional round as an underdog. Since two thousand and three, these teams are three and twenty two straight up, thirteen and twelve against the spread. So that goes for forty nine Ers Bills in Chicago. So the three and twenty two straight up one really jumped out to me, like maybe they cover, but it just shows how winning these games back to back as.
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Speaker 3: A dog yeah, so hard.
00:14:40
Speaker 4: It is so hard, which makes sense, right, especially on the road for the Niners and this Bill and the Bills. So yeah, for me, you know, I'm not gonna put too much obviously on the money line here. Maybe I'll pull that back a little bit, but on the plus seven plus seven and a halfs I'm I'm happy to walk right into it like this is. We might get burned here, Chad, but long term this would be a winner, right going for in the future we get to keep going back to that where it's like, Okay, teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before now big dogs and division around, they just cover like historically they've covered in this exact spot. So I know it's scary with all the injuries. We've talked about it. Just third time playing each other divisional game, you expect to be tight. I just everything went wrong the last time they played, Like, yeah, really did like that pick in the red zone when the Caffrey that just does not happen with him, right, So I really get into this one.
00:15:30
Speaker 3: At the end of the day.
00:15:30
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, talk all the time about not overthinking this one. I'm trying to diver think it where it's like, guys, we're getting a great number here, let's take it, especially in contest. If it's seven and a half, Chad, that's gonna be a real hard choice to pass on that number.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: I don't know that we can. Yeah, I'll be honest.
00:15:46
Speaker 1: We talked about Houston, New England the side. But just to be clear, we are on Houston, New England, and the under if you can get the forty one, get it. It's also at forty and a half below the key number. I took it at forty and a half. This was our brass balls. I think we're gonna have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest too.
00:16:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean live that Seahawks game. We just talked about Chad's Chad's favorite bet, the under. It is now moving almost every book to forty four.
00:16:15
Speaker 3: There we go, so.
00:16:16
Speaker 4: Again this is I'm gonna lose my mind all day because is this Sam Darnold movement?
00:16:20
Speaker 3: Are we like?
00:16:21
Speaker 4: I can't wait to get off this call and try to find out more. And obviously I hire anything that I can put out there. I would beforehand, but Shifter will always beat me, beat me to the punch. That's what does It gets paid millions dollars to do that. But yeah, for this game, I haven't waivered at all. I still love the under and once again it's another one. I'm happy we got ahead of it. You know, just because the Nico Collins it didn't move this.
00:16:42
Speaker 3: By a point? Yeah, uh yeah to me.
00:16:46
Speaker 4: If any game is stupid enough to go over with some fluky plays, this would obviously be the game.
00:16:52
Speaker 3: Right.
00:16:52
Speaker 4: We have two defenses that can be beat beat by deep balls. But I just I can't see CJ having a career day here without his guy and Nico Kohen, especially the fact that Christian Gonzalez is back, and he's back with no visual effects.
00:17:08
Speaker 3: Right.
00:17:09
Speaker 4: They said he is totally cleared, didn't have any sleep issues or anything like that, So huge deal to know. The Gonzales is gonna be locking down half the field here against an already banged up and weak Houston team. And you know Houston also might have an injury to the offensive line, So can Milton Williams take advantage of that?
00:17:24
Speaker 3: We'll see.
00:17:25
Speaker 4: But Patriots, as bad as their past rush I thought was against the Chargers last week, I thought their coverage was excellent. So I'm really excited to see this defensive matchups with both these guys.
00:17:36
Speaker 2: Rams minus four at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you.
00:17:43
Speaker 1: Forty years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played in Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago watching it from Miami. Back then, it was the monster of the Midway Super Bowl Shuffle, Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams, and they.
00:18:15
Speaker 2: Were favorites, Bears underdogs here.
00:18:18
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be icy, it's gonna be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Halla statue outside Jolder Field just covered in snow.
00:18:33
Speaker 2: What are we doing here?
00:18:35
Speaker 3: I know what I'm doing.
00:18:36
Speaker 4: I'm definitely stilling this Rams team and for full game, I'm doing it Bove. My bigger bets I've talked about my positions are the Rams first half.
00:18:45
Speaker 3: It's mine two and a half. Now. I believe in obviously the under for the first half.
00:18:49
Speaker 4: So you know, I'm a little gun shy to see with this old Bears second half.
00:18:54
Speaker 3: They burned me for so much money last week, but we talked about it. I know lightning doesn't strike.
00:19:01
Speaker 4: Twice, but if they're down fourteen and a half, you gotta throw a little bit on the Bear's money line once again. I mean, they just they keep this is who they are right at this point. You can't deny it. What is that number was that number.
00:19:15
Speaker 3: Eight or nine. Come back within when the last two minutes of a game like something.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: Sevin Well that you say, lightning doesn't strike twice for the Bears. Lightning is struck seven times this year because they've come back.
00:19:25
Speaker 3: It is who they are, That's what I mean.
00:19:27
Speaker 1: They've come back with two minutes down, two minutes left in the game seven times NFL record. To your point, though, we owe people lay Rock in a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by hard Rock.
00:19:38
Speaker 3: Beat a rock.
00:19:45
Speaker 1: We're going a little bit off the board here. We've been talking about it all week. Our Rock and a Hard Place Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet is going to be the Rams in Chicago.
00:19:54
Speaker 2: The first half under.
00:19:56
Speaker 1: We liked it at twenty five and a half on Tuesday, it's a twenty three and a half. We're still recommending you take the under at twenty three and a half. Let's get a quick word from our sponsor, hard Rock Bet. We'll come back on the other side with our final five. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. With Miami making the national championship, you know, hard Rock Stadium will be rocking, and if you're going to the game, hard Rock Bet is giving you a ten dollars bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the hard Rock Cafe Miami, Duffy's North Miami Beach, American Social Miami, and Batch Brickle. Hard Rock Bet is dropping ten dollar bonus bets there too. You can turn that free ten dollar bonus bet into a big win by placing the same game parlay, or even if you're just watching the game at home. There's still no better place to bet than Natty than Hard Rock Bet because it's Florida Sportsbook, so they're going crazy with promos for this one. You haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and if it hits, you get out on lead winnings, but also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
00:21:12
Speaker 2: Even if your team may be out.
00:21:14
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00:22:05
Speaker 2: All right, brother, listen, I'm leaving the last one up to you.
00:22:08
Speaker 1: I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco under forty five and a half in the contest.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: San Francisco plus seven and.
00:22:15
Speaker 1: A half New England minus three and a half and the total in the New England Houston game, which is forty and a half. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get forty eight and a half on the total in that game. Or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and Denver and take the over in that game, even though I don't like anything in that game.
00:22:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, like we talked the forty nine ers one we both love. I get all those stats, right, I think it was pretty four and zero against the spread straight up in his career, he's never lost in Seattle, winning those games like ten points per game, so it's he's obviously been dominant and when he goes up there, bruck pretty. But yeah, for that that Bill's Denver game. You know I gave you those stats. It's really really hard to win back to back playoff games all on the road, especially when you have a banged up team, so it stinks for us. I wish I could dig in more and be heavy on Denver, but the Josh Allen effect, I think both of us it just scared us off, but I am obviously still on the Denver side. Yeah, if you want to go with the over in that game, I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five, I like I would do forty nine ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you. I'd want to do Patriots mine three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here, just because at the end of the day, I won't hate myself for if I lose on Stafford against Caleb. Where if we lose in the contest cause I took bo Nicks over Josh Allen, Yeah I would. I could see the fans absolutely crushing me. So that's where I'm at with that one. It's like I feel good, I feel good. Kind of hate both of them, but that's how it is. We're you're at this time of year. It's hard not to have the fan in us. I think both fans of US want the Bears and the Bills to both win.
00:24:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that's the tough part here.
00:24:15
Speaker 4: I'm trying not to make let that filter in here, So I'm gonna leave it up to you, buddy, would you rather do Denver or La.
00:24:22
Speaker 2: We're gonna go with the Rams.
00:24:23
Speaker 1: I hate it, but it's this like I don't have any like I don't have any feeling on.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: The Bills and the Broncos.
00:24:31
Speaker 1: I don't love the number. I don't want to bet against Josh Allen, but it's a bad situation.
00:24:36
Speaker 2: Whereas the Bears, I could see them winning.
00:24:39
Speaker 1: And if if I lose this game because the Bears one, I've emotionally hedged, I'm totally fine.
00:24:46
Speaker 2: I feel really good about other four picks.
00:24:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, and again people have asked, obviously it might feel like the sucker bet of the day, but the Bills, you can tease them up to seven and a half. I get it, like I've thrown them in a bunch of bets as well, even heavy on the Denver side, it's just is Josh Allen, we're gonna get blown up by bon Nix. That feels like something that can't actually happen here. But yeah, the you know these lines jet like we toalk the time, they're really tough here. But yeah, I'm happy we're going the ramsh that Denver pick all.
00:25:17
Speaker 1: Right, So we got Seattle and the Rams under forty five and a half. We got the Niners plus seven and a half, the Patriots minus three and a half, the under in the Houston Patriots game forty and a half, and the Rams minus four and a half.
00:25:35
Speaker 2: Those are our official five picks. Those have been submitted.
00:25:38
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
00:25:42
Speaker 2: We will be back.
00:25:43
Speaker 1: On Sharper Square on Sunday nights after the Bears Rams game. We'll recap a lot of misery and I'll be prepping for the Indiana Who's res in the National title game on Monday.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
00:25:56
Speaker 1: Like this video, subscribe to the channel, Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review.
00:26:01
Speaker 2: Subscribe, webus five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you.
00:26:09
Speaker 1: The road to the Super Bowl filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and
00:26:14
Speaker 4: Shattering collisions, but the final prize makes the trip worth one
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares. Sharper makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Melman, I'm joined as always, buy, my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter Ello.
00:00:21
Speaker 2: Simon Chat.
00:00:23
Speaker 3: How are we doing?
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Dude?
00:00:25
Speaker 1: Look, I'm about to embark on a few days of an adventure. I feel like I feel so freaking lucky. I cannot tell you. I'll be in Miami. Two of my closest buddies, Andy and Matt, who grew up with me. We all grew up together outside Chicago. We all went to Indiana. We're all going to be at the game on Monday nights.
00:00:52
Speaker 2: Will be there for the Bears.
00:00:54
Speaker 1: Game on Sunday night. These are like, honest to God, not to get sentimental, just glorious opportunities and weekends that just don't come around that often. So I'm ready.
00:01:08
Speaker 2: To roll, brother, ready to roll? Are you?
00:01:13
Speaker 3: Yeah? No? I mean, like we talk all the times. The best time here.
00:01:16
Speaker 4: If you love good football, right, it's the highest level being played and you're just fortunate enough that both your two favorite.
00:01:22
Speaker 3: Teams are still here playing and it is. Let's see the date, January seventeenth. I can't believe it.
00:01:28
Speaker 4: Chad's in the finals for the playoffs with his Indiana Hoosiers and the Bears. It's a real possibility where we're sitting here next week and they're playing for, you know, a championship of their own conference.
00:01:40
Speaker 3: It's a crazy.
00:01:41
Speaker 4: Time right now for Chad and a lot of like you said, a lot of Chicago fans, a lot of them have ties to Aghanis.
00:01:46
Speaker 3: Of course, it's a great time for the Midwest.
00:01:49
Speaker 1: Nice man coming, go Caleb A this divisional weekend version of the strip down in the room eavesdropping Sharper Square.
00:01:57
Speaker 2: We're going to narrow it down to five. I know, five picks.
00:02:01
Speaker 1: A lot of injury conversations, whether lines being impacted. You can see the dynamic contest line. Simon and I are playing at the free Sharper Square Pro Football pickup contest. If you've signed up to play at sharpersquare dot the volume dot com, you can track us in the contest at Chad and Simon BFF. Don't forget we're playing both sides and totals in the contest, Simon, we will lock in based on all the games. So we're gonna talk about all the games. There's only four of them. We're gonna go in order of what I think our top five are right now, not in the order of the schedule. So Seattle San Francisco under forty five and a half. This was Chad's choice. It continued to tick down. It's at forty five in some places forty four and a half. Elsewhere it is forty five and a half. In the contest. I think it's ticked down, maybe because of the Arnold news. I'm leaking a little bit of confidence. Something tells me that I know well, I know from Killer Sports there's a trend that when two teams have gone grossly under and the two times they've played, the third time goes over. But I just can't see schematically between the way the Seahawks are going to want to play this game and some of the limitations the Niners have on offense with the personnel on the field, this game feels like it should go under to me.
00:03:34
Speaker 2: So I'm still on the under.
00:03:37
Speaker 1: I want you to make me feel really good about it.
00:03:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's still don't with you, but I saw that stat too. I think it's like, basically, if you blindly bet the over here, it's a fifty.
00:03:47
Speaker 3: Seven percent success rate. Yes, that it's just a long term Like.
00:03:51
Speaker 4: Chad said, these two teams technically, maybe that's what we've been missing here, Rick, because we both could not understand this totally.
00:03:57
Speaker 3: And you know it's in.
00:04:00
Speaker 4: The playoff, especially the week we're coming off. I feel like every bet we're gonna make is gonna have a a little leak of confidence here. I'm dugging on it. I still think un there's a play if anything. Seeing the Sam Donald news, I don't know about you, but it made me even happier for our bet early bet on the under, just because I mean, think about how much they use his legs outside the pocket and you know, get different looks from the defenses because it's we talked about all year that Sam Donald's not played well, but where he has played well is within the offense.
00:04:30
Speaker 3: Get it to JSN.
00:04:31
Speaker 4: That's been the key, right, so for when anytime the plays break down, he uses his legs. He's always looking for JSN is best receiver and it's been magical for them, right every time they need a third down. It feels like he finds that guy. So, you know, as soon as I saw that injury news, I did think this would pop at six and a half. It seems like the way they're talking, it's not they're trying to make it out to be not as serious, and the books reflect that. But like we're gonna go through it here, like all how the public's been anything like that. This is a game with a public has been hammering this under, and they've been hammering the Niners, and the pros have been hammering the Seahawks, and they've been hammering the over.
00:05:06
Speaker 3: So we're definitely on the public side here.
00:05:09
Speaker 4: We talked last week though the public does win the playoffs, that stuff doesn't really matter as much. And you know here, I'm still shocked to be seeing the seven. I'm still shocked to see it's heaven. But we talked about it's just there's that many injuries for them to forty nine ers, right, They're that banged up.
00:05:23
Speaker 3: The books have to hang this one. So yeah, if.
00:05:26
Speaker 4: We're if I had to pick a number here, if I had to say, well, more confident on the seven or more confident under, I would go with the under. I mean, if if you have to pick a sider, obviously I'm going the forty nine ers, but I still would like the underplane.
00:05:39
Speaker 3: Just put about both.
00:05:39
Speaker 4: I see these offenses playing right, I think they're both going to try to lean heavy into the run for this matchup and ball control. So uh yeah, this one, like you said, tick down, was forty six.
00:05:49
Speaker 3: Now, a lot of books show forty five.
00:05:51
Speaker 4: A couple of them already moving to forty four and a half this morning, So uh.
00:05:56
Speaker 3: Once once again we see if Sam Darno is fully cleared.
00:05:59
Speaker 4: You know, we get the guy on the sideline before and saying, yow, he's running, well, he's looking good. This could steam up another point again, So I wouldn't be upset if you missed it. If your book showing forty five and a half or forty four and a half, I do think I might be able to get back to forty six, but I would grab the forty five and a half now just to be safe.
00:06:18
Speaker 3: If if he does go out there and it's.
00:06:20
Speaker 4: Not right and they do have to start Drew Locke, this might steam down four or five points on the total and maybe three four points on the side. So we're all waiting, baited breath here to hear what's going on with Sam Donald. But I just I cannot see him missing this game. If anything, he'll do what we see these other quarterbacks do you right, take the shot, whatever he needs to do, and just get out there and play on one leg. It's just this is what he just played for eighteen weeks to get to. I just can't see Sam Darna miss in this game.
00:06:46
Speaker 3: All right.
00:06:47
Speaker 1: Well, that the under was Chad's choice, so I got a feeling that's going to make it into our final five. The other day, you surprised me with a complete one eighty. I don't know if there was bullet involved from the professionals or not. And committed to the Patriots potentially being one of your biggest bets for the weekend. Patriots at minus three that minus three and a half at hard Rock Bet right now.
00:07:15
Speaker 2: I mean, Miko Kanla's not playing.
00:07:17
Speaker 1: As a factor, but it's just it's a challenging one because this Texans defense is so good. So give me your current take. Are you still leaning into the Patriots as field goal favorites.
00:07:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's still leading into it.
00:07:35
Speaker 4: You know, we've talked a little bit about it where just Houston defense.
00:07:40
Speaker 3: They are historically great.
00:07:42
Speaker 4: If there is a team that could go up to New England and pull off an upset, no doubt it is this Houston team.
00:07:47
Speaker 3: But uh, it really is when of the games where.
00:07:50
Speaker 4: You break it all down and you look at the different trends, everything, it feels like favorites is Themland team. I mean, we've obviously all seen this trend with Drake may is a favorite three points more eleven and zero straight up, nine to two against the spread. Even when you pull up back even further, this Texas team, they've won ten straight games. In the history of the NFL, teams that have won ten straight games are now they're an underdog in the Divisional round zero to four straight up, one and three against the spread, and that exactly yeah, And it's just we talk at the time how rare it is. Right a team has won ten straight and now they're a bigger than a three point dog on the road with a team that's great as a number two defense, it's not shocking to see how the split the bets are here. The public side definitely is the Patriots, right, You've seen even the start of the week. The more that the public money was coming on the Patriots team. But we've finally seen some professional money coming to the Statriers team and drive it up to three and a half when it's been sitting at three all week. It's starting to slowly move up now to three and a half. And you know, we talked we love the total. There star are forty ones up there, I mean hard rock here in Jersey, still forty one. That's another line that started ticking down a little bit right. It's come down now a couple of books down to forty and a half. And another game you could see if there's you know, a little bit of weather, could you usually drop a lotw forty sou points going to be really tight here, and we've talked a little bit about it. I just have so many questions with this Houston team where you know my question I do have about Drake Bay and this new England offense. I still think I'm gonna be able to move the ball as good as this Houston defense has been the one real weakness I've had his deep ball passing and teams that cantack the ball downfield.
00:09:29
Speaker 3: Drake May is number two.
00:09:30
Speaker 4: I believe in graded balls downfield and he was number one on EPA per play on balls throwing twenty yards downfield. Like he's been really impressive putting the ball downfield. If that's the only real weakness this Houston defense, you expect him to exploit it like that. I mean, we didn't talk too much about the Pittsburgh game, but Aaron Rodgers he had guys downfield. He just didn't have the time, right, he never had the time because he can't use his legs. Yeah, I mean that one that stands out to you, same to me is that he k metcalf.
00:09:59
Speaker 2: Brutal change the game change then.
00:10:02
Speaker 4: Be a touchdown, and then he didn't go to him for about two quarters after that. So you know, looking at this matchup throw aways for them to attack it and uh if if the number scares you off terribly Honestly, my biggest investment is once I heard those trends and the numbers about the money line, I've really invested heavily Newngland's money line. So once again, shop around, get the three. You don't have to take the three and a half. But we're stuck with a three and a half in the contest. I don't hate it because we're having a tough time finding the five here. But yeah, I think this is a type of game where Patriots just roll, not just offensively, defensively with Rabel and Houston. You know, we've seen CJ struggle on the road. I think losing Nikos is gonna be too much for him to overcome here. So it's it's a really interesting matchup effect that this number. I was sitting at three all week, and now we're heading into Saturday here and it's it's finally getting professional money.
00:10:51
Speaker 3: Get bumped at the minus three and a half I saw.
00:10:54
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, as soon as we're done here, I'm taking off to see the Indian Hoosiers playing the National College Football Championship Game at the very cool and famous hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, and thanks to our friends at hard Rock Bet, I will be there.
00:11:16
Speaker 2: Live.
00:11:19
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00:12:02
Speaker 2: Say hello to me.
00:12:03
Speaker 1: They'll be handing out profit boost tokens to use on the game, and select VIPs are getting instant bonus bets dropped right into their accounts.
00:12:14
Speaker 2: Be sure to check it out.
00:12:17
Speaker 1: Can't wait to get down there, see folks at the hard Rock Hotel in Casino, San Francisco, Seattle. The number we just touched on it. We didn't go as deep as we did into the total. Ricky Piersoll San Francisco forty nine receiver is confident he's going to play. But there's no George Kittle, there's no Trent Williams.
00:12:38
Speaker 2: There could be real challenges for this running game.
00:12:41
Speaker 1: However, the Darnold News has changed some of the calculus on this simon. We didn't really dig deep on it, but I think we can both say that we will be on the Niners in this game. At plus seven and a half. It's now at seven in the contest, it's going to be at seven and a half.
00:13:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, I had a couple of ass right away. Is this not like when we were heavily back in the Seahawks against Carolina Panthers, right and that number one up to eight, you know, minus eight at one point in the Seahawks and they absolutely rolled that Panthers team.
00:13:13
Speaker 3: And it's like, aren't you worried?
00:13:14
Speaker 4: You guys are stepping in here with the Niners team and you know, playoffs are very different.
00:13:17
Speaker 3: We talk out the teams play so tight.
00:13:20
Speaker 4: The only thing that's giving me some type of pause would just be everyone I've talked to professionally and public wise is on this Niners team. It feels like I know some groups that cucharias and they're on the Seahawks, but money wise, guys, I respect, it's all Niners right now.
00:13:34
Speaker 3: So not shocked to see this one come down.
00:13:36
Speaker 4: I'll hit you with the stab one more time that I really love from Evan Road teams.
00:13:41
Speaker 3: I missed the playoffs last year.
00:13:43
Speaker 4: That are the dog that are a dog in the divisional round twenty nine and fourteen, So sixty seven percent against the spread since two thousand and three.
00:13:52
Speaker 3: So we talk all the time.
00:13:53
Speaker 4: It's usually a team that's a little underrated. This Niners team is not that more people are comfortable betting them. And you know, I gave out that stat. Shanahan basically has been dominant, winning these games already three to zer divisional round as a dog straight up, which is really impressive.
00:14:09
Speaker 3: But I did see this, this crazy.
00:14:11
Speaker 4: Stat basically about teams that were underdogs in a wildcard round and now they're in the divisional round as an underdog. Since two thousand and three, these teams are three and twenty two straight up, thirteen and twelve against the spread. So that goes for forty nine Ers Bills in Chicago. So the three and twenty two straight up one really jumped out to me, like maybe they cover, but it just shows how winning these games back to back as.
00:14:38
Speaker 3: A dog yeah, so hard.
00:14:40
Speaker 4: It is so hard, which makes sense, right, especially on the road for the Niners and this Bill and the Bills. So yeah, for me, you know, I'm not gonna put too much obviously on the money line here. Maybe I'll pull that back a little bit, but on the plus seven plus seven and a halfs I'm I'm happy to walk right into it like this is. We might get burned here, Chad, but long term this would be a winner, right going for in the future we get to keep going back to that where it's like, Okay, teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before now big dogs and division around, they just cover like historically they've covered in this exact spot. So I know it's scary with all the injuries. We've talked about it. Just third time playing each other divisional game, you expect to be tight. I just everything went wrong the last time they played, Like, yeah, really did like that pick in the red zone when the Caffrey that just does not happen with him, right, So I really get into this one.
00:15:30
Speaker 3: At the end of the day.
00:15:30
Speaker 4: It's like, you know, talk all the time about not overthinking this one. I'm trying to diver think it where it's like, guys, we're getting a great number here, let's take it, especially in contest. If it's seven and a half, Chad, that's gonna be a real hard choice to pass on that number.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: I don't know that we can. Yeah, I'll be honest.
00:15:46
Speaker 1: We talked about Houston, New England the side. But just to be clear, we are on Houston, New England, and the under if you can get the forty one, get it. It's also at forty and a half below the key number. I took it at forty and a half. This was our brass balls. I think we're gonna have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest too.
00:16:06
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean live that Seahawks game. We just talked about Chad's Chad's favorite bet, the under. It is now moving almost every book to forty four.
00:16:15
Speaker 3: There we go, so.
00:16:16
Speaker 4: Again this is I'm gonna lose my mind all day because is this Sam Darnold movement?
00:16:20
Speaker 3: Are we like?
00:16:21
Speaker 4: I can't wait to get off this call and try to find out more. And obviously I hire anything that I can put out there. I would beforehand, but Shifter will always beat me, beat me to the punch. That's what does It gets paid millions dollars to do that. But yeah, for this game, I haven't waivered at all. I still love the under and once again it's another one. I'm happy we got ahead of it. You know, just because the Nico Collins it didn't move this.
00:16:42
Speaker 3: By a point? Yeah, uh yeah to me.
00:16:46
Speaker 4: If any game is stupid enough to go over with some fluky plays, this would obviously be the game.
00:16:52
Speaker 3: Right.
00:16:52
Speaker 4: We have two defenses that can be beat beat by deep balls. But I just I can't see CJ having a career day here without his guy and Nico Kohen, especially the fact that Christian Gonzalez is back, and he's back with no visual effects.
00:17:08
Speaker 3: Right.
00:17:09
Speaker 4: They said he is totally cleared, didn't have any sleep issues or anything like that, So huge deal to know. The Gonzales is gonna be locking down half the field here against an already banged up and weak Houston team. And you know Houston also might have an injury to the offensive line, So can Milton Williams take advantage of that?
00:17:24
Speaker 3: We'll see.
00:17:25
Speaker 4: But Patriots, as bad as their past rush I thought was against the Chargers last week, I thought their coverage was excellent. So I'm really excited to see this defensive matchups with both these guys.
00:17:36
Speaker 2: Rams minus four at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you.
00:17:43
Speaker 1: Forty years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played in Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago watching it from Miami. Back then, it was the monster of the Midway Super Bowl Shuffle, Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams, and they.
00:18:15
Speaker 2: Were favorites, Bears underdogs here.
00:18:18
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be icy, it's gonna be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Halla statue outside Jolder Field just covered in snow.
00:18:33
Speaker 2: What are we doing here?
00:18:35
Speaker 3: I know what I'm doing.
00:18:36
Speaker 4: I'm definitely stilling this Rams team and for full game, I'm doing it Bove. My bigger bets I've talked about my positions are the Rams first half.
00:18:45
Speaker 3: It's mine two and a half. Now. I believe in obviously the under for the first half.
00:18:49
Speaker 4: So you know, I'm a little gun shy to see with this old Bears second half.
00:18:54
Speaker 3: They burned me for so much money last week, but we talked about it. I know lightning doesn't strike.
00:19:01
Speaker 4: Twice, but if they're down fourteen and a half, you gotta throw a little bit on the Bear's money line once again. I mean, they just they keep this is who they are right at this point. You can't deny it. What is that number was that number.
00:19:15
Speaker 3: Eight or nine. Come back within when the last two minutes of a game like something.
00:19:18
Speaker 1: Sevin Well that you say, lightning doesn't strike twice for the Bears. Lightning is struck seven times this year because they've come back.
00:19:25
Speaker 3: It is who they are, That's what I mean.
00:19:27
Speaker 1: They've come back with two minutes down, two minutes left in the game seven times NFL record. To your point, though, we owe people lay Rock in a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by hard Rock.
00:19:38
Speaker 3: Beat a rock.
00:19:45
Speaker 1: We're going a little bit off the board here. We've been talking about it all week. Our Rock and a Hard Place Better the Week presented by hard Rock Bet is going to be the Rams in Chicago.
00:19:54
Speaker 2: The first half under.
00:19:56
Speaker 1: We liked it at twenty five and a half on Tuesday, it's a twenty three and a half. We're still recommending you take the under at twenty three and a half. Let's get a quick word from our sponsor, hard Rock Bet. We'll come back on the other side with our final five. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. With Miami making the national championship, you know, hard Rock Stadium will be rocking, and if you're going to the game, hard Rock Bet is giving you a ten dollars bonus bet to get in on the action. If you're watching the game out in Miami, head to the hard Rock Cafe Miami, Duffy's North Miami Beach, American Social Miami, and Batch Brickle. Hard Rock Bet is dropping ten dollar bonus bets there too. You can turn that free ten dollar bonus bet into a big win by placing the same game parlay, or even if you're just watching the game at home. There's still no better place to bet than Natty than Hard Rock Bet because it's Florida Sportsbook, so they're going crazy with promos for this one. You haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and if it hits, you get out on lead winnings, but also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
00:21:12
Speaker 2: Even if your team may be out.
00:21:14
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00:22:05
Speaker 2: All right, brother, listen, I'm leaving the last one up to you.
00:22:08
Speaker 1: I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco under forty five and a half in the contest.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: San Francisco plus seven and.
00:22:15
Speaker 1: A half New England minus three and a half and the total in the New England Houston game, which is forty and a half. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get forty eight and a half on the total in that game. Or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and Denver and take the over in that game, even though I don't like anything in that game.
00:22:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, like we talked the forty nine ers one we both love. I get all those stats, right, I think it was pretty four and zero against the spread straight up in his career, he's never lost in Seattle, winning those games like ten points per game, so it's he's obviously been dominant and when he goes up there, bruck pretty. But yeah, for that that Bill's Denver game. You know I gave you those stats. It's really really hard to win back to back playoff games all on the road, especially when you have a banged up team, so it stinks for us. I wish I could dig in more and be heavy on Denver, but the Josh Allen effect, I think both of us it just scared us off, but I am obviously still on the Denver side. Yeah, if you want to go with the over in that game, I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five, I like I would do forty nine ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you. I'd want to do Patriots mine three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here, just because at the end of the day, I won't hate myself for if I lose on Stafford against Caleb. Where if we lose in the contest cause I took bo Nicks over Josh Allen, Yeah I would. I could see the fans absolutely crushing me. So that's where I'm at with that one. It's like I feel good, I feel good. Kind of hate both of them, but that's how it is. We're you're at this time of year. It's hard not to have the fan in us. I think both fans of US want the Bears and the Bills to both win.
00:24:13
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that's the tough part here.
00:24:15
Speaker 4: I'm trying not to make let that filter in here, So I'm gonna leave it up to you, buddy, would you rather do Denver or La.
00:24:22
Speaker 2: We're gonna go with the Rams.
00:24:23
Speaker 1: I hate it, but it's this like I don't have any like I don't have any feeling on.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: The Bills and the Broncos.
00:24:31
Speaker 1: I don't love the number. I don't want to bet against Josh Allen, but it's a bad situation.
00:24:36
Speaker 2: Whereas the Bears, I could see them winning.
00:24:39
Speaker 1: And if if I lose this game because the Bears one, I've emotionally hedged, I'm totally fine.
00:24:46
Speaker 2: I feel really good about other four picks.
00:24:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, and again people have asked, obviously it might feel like the sucker bet of the day, but the Bills, you can tease them up to seven and a half. I get it, like I've thrown them in a bunch of bets as well, even heavy on the Denver side, it's just is Josh Allen, we're gonna get blown up by bon Nix. That feels like something that can't actually happen here. But yeah, the you know these lines jet like we toalk the time, they're really tough here. But yeah, I'm happy we're going the ramsh that Denver pick all.
00:25:17
Speaker 1: Right, So we got Seattle and the Rams under forty five and a half. We got the Niners plus seven and a half, the Patriots minus three and a half, the under in the Houston Patriots game forty and a half, and the Rams minus four and a half.
00:25:35
Speaker 2: Those are our official five picks. Those have been submitted.
00:25:38
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network.
00:25:42
Speaker 2: We will be back.
00:25:43
Speaker 1: On Sharper Square on Sunday nights after the Bears Rams game. We'll recap a lot of misery and I'll be prepping for the Indiana Who's res in the National title game on Monday.
00:25:54
Speaker 2: Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
00:25:56
Speaker 1: Like this video, subscribe to the channel, Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate review.
00:26:01
Speaker 2: Subscribe, webus five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you.
00:26:09
Speaker 1: The road to the Super Bowl filled with unexpected twists and turns, detours and
00:26:14
Speaker 4: Shattering collisions, but the final prize makes the trip worth one
