00:00:00
Speaker 1: Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Jake Seey from The Athletic and by Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points Fellas. We are into July. It is July second as of the day we are recording this, so we are just a month away from the height of draft season. But really it does feel like it ramps up right about now that July fourth is kind of the milestone for where things really kick into high gear. So it's a very exciting time of year. I'm really excited to be talking some running backs to run from on today's show with the two of you. These are running backs that we will be avoiding, and we're gonna throw in some at the end that maybe, even though they're risky, have some red flags that we are still considering drafting as well. Jake, like I said, into July, now, how are you doing, man.
00:00:41
Speaker 2: I'm doing good, and I'm doing really good. It's July. I have what two or three more weeks before the real hell storm starts for all of us, but at least it's creeping in. We know that the people want it.
00:00:52
Speaker 1: I feel like every year gets a little bit earlier and earlier in the off season that you see the swarm start covering.
00:00:57
Speaker 2: All the sites. We're all doing the same thing as like, well, they're already out of so now we need to jump in front of them, and we need to jump in front by the time we turn around in two years, we're gonna be releasing this kit on like maybe.
00:01:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's earlier at earlier year. Ryan, this is the first time we're doing a show together. Man, thanks for coming on.
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, thanks for having me so much. Very excited. Yeah, awesome to meet and work with both of you. This should be a really fun show.
00:01:20
Speaker 1: What do you have going on at Fantasy Points right now?
00:01:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, right now, kind of just grinding through a bunch of off season articles. I am writing about a bunch of different metrics that we have in the Fantasy Points data suite and like some different ways that those can get you an edge in your fantasy league. So talking about like design, targets, expected Fantasy Points, all sorts of good stuff. So yeah, you can check all that out all my writing on fantasy points dot com.
00:01:47
Speaker 1: Jake, any projects you're working on at the Athletic.
00:01:49
Speaker 2: Actually my breakout top seven wide receivers just came out today and I actually use Fantasy points to back up my opinion of Josh Downs and using his separation score and win rate percentage. I like to do the mix of both. And so yeah, I was on the site yesterday. Thank you Scott Barrett for that.
00:02:06
Speaker 1: Nice We love the synergy going on here already. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. You can go to all your different scoring formats. From there, We're gonna got to go through some early round running backs first that we think are a little overvalued, then some mid round guys. Then we'll wrap with the players that we are considering still drafting even with some of these red flags. Jake, let's start with you, your first overvalue running back that's going early.
00:02:33
Speaker 2: I figure, why not coming out of the gate strong right, Just everybody to turn the show off, like screw it, not listening to the rest of it. But it'ch Ashton Genty and that's look. I couldn't have lauded Ashton Genty more than most everybody did coming to this draft. We know how good he is. But then I look at it and it really comes to I'm avoiding him where he's going because if we're going by consensus, he's RB four and I'm just not gonna take him as RB four, not because I don't believe in Genty, not though I don't believe that the Raiders offense can be better than it has been, especially with Gino Smith and everything they've done. I just don't believe in taking Genty in front of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. And I know there's a Christian McCaffrey argument out there, but I'll still take him, mostly because I know this team still has to face some of the toughest run defenses in the league. Twice they face the Chiefs, and I know this is all on paper. Things can change by the time that they face each other, and that happens every single year. But I just look at Genty and I go back to Bjon Robinson, who we were all excited about. Bijon was going second, third, fourth, running back off the board because he's Bjon Robinson just like Genty is right now. And as a disappointment, Bjon Robinson was RB eight or nine and That's where I have gent to have him at eight, because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit hit him a little bit, and if nothing more that it might not be the touches. He'll get three hundred touches, but they might limit him on the touchdown upside. I just think he's a fine pick early in the second round. I'm just not taking him mid early first and then has the fourth running back off the board.
00:03:58
Speaker 1: That's all it is.
00:03:58
Speaker 2: It's not that I hate him, I just hate where he's going.
00:04:01
Speaker 1: Ryan, what do you think about gend He's RB four, right at the top of tier two in our expert consensus rankings. Obviously as a rookie, you know everybody's super excited, but we haven't actually seen yet. Do you agree with Jake that early second round is more where you're comfortable or do you see him as a first round player.
00:04:16
Speaker 3: I am kind of with Jake here. I'm glad that Jake picked him because genty was who I wanted to pick kind of, but then I was too scared to write down his name essentially, But yeah, I mean of the running backs going in the first round, Genty is the one I'm the least excited about. I would rather draft Christian McCaffrey. I would rather draft Devon ah Chan. And yeah, it really is just because of the offense. I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Gino Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Genty to really post a truly league winning RB one season.
00:04:55
Speaker 1: Ran, would you rather Genty or Derek Henry? Because you mentioned a Chan and McCaffrey. Those guys are RB six in our in our expert consensus rankings. Henry's RB five, so he's ahead of both those guys as well. Between jen and Henry, who would you prefer?
00:05:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would take Henry as well.
00:05:09
Speaker 1: Okay, that is one that I hope people don't turn off because if but you know, there are at least some people who disagree with you. There, Jake Ryan, let's go to your first early overvalued running back.
00:05:18
Speaker 3: So my overvalued guy is someone that Jake actually just mentioned. It's Josh Jacobs. For me, I can't get on board with a top two or top three round ADP for Jacobs, and it's because I expect the Packers offense to just look very different. So last year they average a negative four and a half percent pass rate over expectation. That just means that they were the third most run heavy team in the league, controlling for down and distance, in game situation and game script and all of that, right, But that's not what we've seen out of Matt Lafleur's offenses historically. Over the past three seasons. They ranked fourteenth, twentieth and fifth most pass heavy by that same metric. They just added Matthew Golden in Round one. There's likely an intention here to get back at least to a more balanced attack. And even before Jordan Love's mid season groin injury, he was averaging thirty five point eight pass attempts per game that was fourth most among quarterbacks. So just kind of this confluence of factors that happened last year, with Love getting banged up and with the Packers kind of beating up on a lot of really bad teams in the second half of the year, it led to all of this awesome production for Jacobs. But I just don't expect the environment to be the same this year. The Packers have a bottom ten schedule by opponent Vegas win total, so again, they're probably not going to be coasting to wins like they were last year. And Jacobs has been very game script sensitive over his career. He averages seven fewer points per game and half PPR formats in losses than he doesn't win since twenty twenty two. So I would just much rather have kind of any other second or third round running back than Jacob's at this point.
00:07:04
Speaker 1: I really agree with you on this one, Ryan. I think the point about Love's injury is just like very central to this argument, and I would be very surprised if they are as run heavy this year as they were last year, assuming Love is healthy. I want to quickly ask you before I throw to Jake on Jacobs, do you think Jordan Love is then undervalued if you're expecting more passing? He's currently QB seventeen. I know this is a running backs episode, but I'm curious, like, if you are lower on Jacobs, does that mean that you are higher on Love.
00:07:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a bit higher on Love than that. It's hard for single quarterback leagues just because like the big upside qbs are really all that matter, but yeah, certainly in super flex, I think Love is a great pick, and I think maybe the most actionable way to do this is Matthew Golden and Jayden Reid. If I'm correct and the Packers are throwing more, both of those guys are really interesting values.
00:07:54
Speaker 1: Jake, how do you see this offense plan out as Josh Jacobs overvalued at RB nine.
00:07:58
Speaker 2: I actually think he's probably pretty much right in value. I'm obviously on the slim side of this one because you guys are in agreement, but I would take him in the second round, mostly because I actually don't disagree a lot with what Ryan said. It mostly comes down to it. Even if you go back to two years ago, we're still talking about over three hundred and thirty carries between Jones and Dylan in that backfield, and if you just take Jones in the passing game that year, about forty targets, which that's all. I don't expect Josh Jacobs to all of a sudden off set the rushing concerns with seventy targets. That's not going to happen. But I think the touchdown equity is still going to be valuable. I do think that I actually have him for less touches or fewer touches to do it correctly according to Game of Thrones, fewer touches in the run game. But I still think hovering around three ten to three twenty receptions included is why I'm okay with Jacobs. I would agree if he was first round, early second but I would take him neck and neck, like I said right with Genti, because I believe in the touchdown. I think their touches could be similar. I think the touchdowns will be better for Jacobs, and maybe that's where it's a little bit different. So I am willing to take him in the second round.
00:09:04
Speaker 1: My dad is an English teacher, so that line of Game of Thrones of fewer is his favorite line in the show. I would have to imagine, by the way, I love Jake when you say I agree with what Ryan said, because I can pretend you're talking about me, and that actually works because I could agree with the Ryans exactly. I do want to revide everybody about our cheat Sheet Creator. If you're tired of draft day uncertainty, The cheat Sheet Creator is your personal guide to perfect league specific rankings, visualize your path to victory, as you add tears and sink your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sink your league and enter your draft with confidence using the cheat sheet creator at fantasypros dot com slash sheet or on the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. All right, Jake, let's go to your next early overvalued running back.
00:09:49
Speaker 2: Way overvalue in my opinion, and this was before the signing. To add even more concern in this backfield Chubb. But we always say like we never own a player, and like, well, as some point there's always gonna be a breaking point where if he falls far enough that you will draft said player. I have a feeling this is one that I actually will never own because I have Joe Mixon in the mid twenties. I cannot ignore the injury concern the signing, and honestly, even if you look at the drafting situation of Woody Marx, I actually thought Woody Marx was a very nice handcuff initially before the signing to say that, hey, if Joe Mixon isn't one hundred percent similar skill set in some ways to Joe mix in some ways not all, But look at this badfield. I'm just like, man, this is this is about to be gross. And I think that you see that the Texans were not confident in what they had. They added Marx. They know that Damian Pierce hasn't been the answer since his rookie season, but they went out and made the signing Nick Chubb and said, like, hey, maybe Joe Mixon, we should be more concerned than we already were. I already had Joe Mixon outside the top fifteen before the signing, and like I said, now I have him down in the range of like a Pachecko. Like I'd rather just take Pachecko and hope he rebounds to his pre injury performance than to gamble that mixing is anything what he's been. And as much as we've enjoyed mixing in fantasy, I don't think you'll find a single person that would argue against saying he's been volume reliant. And so if the volume's not there and it's not you know, the worst case in the world to say, hey, he is volume reliant. But if he's not getting three hundred touches and he's only getting two hundred, I mean, honestly, a mid RB two might be the best case scenario.
00:11:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jake, even aside from the more crowded backfield, Like I think we're hoping that the Texans throw more too. I mean, it was it became like a running gag last year that they started every drive on second and nine because they were just running for sometimes a loss, but usually like a yard or two at most to start every series.
00:11:40
Speaker 2: As that there's the Giants offense. They stole their playbook.
00:11:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm with you on this, Like, I could see myself having Joe mixing in some leagues, but I'm gonna feel terrible about it if I do, and I will not be aggressively going after that. So far far from it. Ryan, what do you think about mixing this year?
00:12:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything that Jake said. Another thing I would add is that this Texans offensive line could once again be easily the worst in the league. The reports right now out of camp are that they're just rotating starters at all the positions. They don't know where anybody's actually playing like that. That's just very very bad vibes to me. So yeah, fully with Jake here, I also do not want mixing on any of my teams.
00:12:25
Speaker 1: Do you guys think that there will be more scoring opportunities, Like you're expecting a bounce back from the offense in general, and we're just not certain that those scoring opputems are going to go to mix in Ryan, or are you hesitant about actually seeing kind of a bounce back with a revamped offensive line and everything in Houston?
00:12:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just hesitant kind of about everything in Houston. We have seen CJ. Stroud just take awful, awful sacks for his and really a little bit in his rookie year, but also especially in a sophomore season, every time that the defense runs a stunt, he just immediately gets. The Texans line was the worse against stunts of any team last year. So yeah, I just think that it, at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit. So yeah, I'm pretty worried about the entire offense.
00:13:16
Speaker 1: Jake, where do you think this offense finishes the season scoring?
00:13:20
Speaker 2: I would love to say middle of the pack, But I think another part of it is even if it gets to the middle of the pack. Something that the other Ryan Ryan Heath was saying about the Packers is I think you could see them passing more. To your point is that I think they get back to a little bit more from two years ago, which of course would affect Joe Mixon even if we didn't have the job in Marx and health concerns.
00:13:42
Speaker 1: Ryan, who's your next early overvalued running back?
00:13:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, my next guy's a little bit boring because it's a very like one dimensional argument and reason. But it's James Cook for me. I think he's overvalued still, and the reason for that is really just touchdown regression. So Cook converted twenty five percent of his red zone carries into touchdowns last year. That was easily the most in the NFL. It was more than all of the league's like best and most efficient goal line backs, better than Derrick Henry, better than David Montgomery, like just all insane touchdown efficiency that we saw from him on the ground. On top of that, Josh Allen is always going to take around thirty percent of the red zone carries right off the top, at the very least at fantasy points. We have a metric called expected Fantasy points per game, which will just kind of show you how valuable each touch is because it's different in the red zone near the goal line or what have you. But by that metric, Cook ranked as just the RB twenty five last year with only twelve point six expected Fantasy points per game. Right now, he's going as around the RB twelve, kind of as a fringe RB one. That's how he scored last year. But I just don't think it's likely he does it again. And even worse, he kind of took a step back as a receiver, averaging just two point four targets per game, and that was because of Ty Johnson, of all players, who's taking you off the field on third downs. So I just it gives me really bad vibes. I don't like it at all. Generally, to be like a truly league winning running back, you need to average at least three and a half targets per game. It seems unlikely for Cook at least if they continue to run their offense in their backfield the way they have. So yeah, Cook is a fade for me right now.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one, Jake? I know, in addition to everything that Ryan has said, you know, Pat Fitzmorris here at Fantasy Rose is also really high in Ray Davis just says, like another person in this backfield. Do you think Cook is overvalued, Jake, I.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: Mean, he's slightly overvalued. It seems that at least somewhat of the community, the fantasy community, it realizes what Ryan says, and he's a spot on with this. I mean, if you go to David Montgomery, who had if you just talk about pure rush is to touchdown as a six point five percent mark, which is extremely high. Seven point seven of his rushes went for a touchdown, and then he gave you that conversion rate on top of it. I mean, these are numbers that we haven't seen since Legarrett Blunt's year, Like this is just it's not normal. This doesn't happen. And if you look at Lagarrett Blunt completely different team also, but also completely different running back. I just don't think this is going to continue. And I think that's what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue. And if you take even six touchdowns, which is even a cutting in half, but if he takes six away, we're talking about an RB two just because he only still ran the ball two hundred and seven times. So I'm with Ryan on this one. Discreat on the first one, but completely on board within this one is I'd rather have James Cook further down the draft of that Ken. The good news is is because of where he's going, I'm usually taking a wide receiver here. Anyway.
00:16:44
Speaker 1: Nothing beats relaxing on a hot summer day and watching baseball, and the simplest way to get in on the action is to download the Pick six app from DraftKings. It's crazy simple. Just pick more or less on the stats for two or more of your favorite players, and boom, you're in the mix for big cash prizes. No gimmicks, no rules, just ball nail your picks and you're heating up. Pick six brings upside with payouts up to five hundred times. Pick six is live in a ton of states Texas, California, Georgia, Missouri, and lots more. Don't settle for a smaller payout. Switch to pick six and right now, new customers can take advantage of a special sign up offer. Pick six from DraftKings is the most fun way to play fantasy sports. Download the DraftKings Pick six app now and use code Fantasy pros. That's code Fantasy pros for new customers to get a special sign up offer, better payouts, bigger wins only with Pick six from DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
00:17:31
Speaker 4: Gambling problem Call one eight hundred. Gambler help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot orgon Connecticut. Must be eighteen and over age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick six non available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void were prohibited one per new customer. Bonus awarded as none withdrawable Pick six credits that expire in fourteen days limited time offer. See terms at pick six dot DraftKings dot com slash promos.
00:17:58
Speaker 1: All right, guys, let's move to sort of the middle round running backs now, Jake starting with.
00:18:02
Speaker 2: You, Yeah, and I already got a couple questions so far this preseason, and like, why do you hate Tony Pollard? And I'll give you the easy answer of why I hate Tony Pollard's just because I hate where's the ceiling? Like we've just seen the best and actually the best of Tony Poller. To talk about the touchdown regression we were just talking about with James Cook, the best year is when he ran for nine with the Cowboys, and he's had six and six hovering in that eleven points per game range. And it's even with the questions of okay, if Spear's gonna finally do something, and it's mostly still been Tony Pollard as the clear lead, and we still get best case scenario as a back end RB two, like where's the ceiling? Like even if there was nobody else in this bathfield, the ceiling is still like, Okay, cool, he's a mid RB two, And that's my issue with it, is that he's going as a back end RB two and I'd rather have him as an RB three or the first running back off my bench. Maybe if you know, if I had four wide receivers and a running back and he's my second RB cool, I can get with. But that's why I have him thirty three is because that's where i'd want him. I would rather have Cam Skataboo and Judkins's rookies. I'd rather have Brian Robinson as his situation with the Commanders. There's just other running backs I would take because their similar value as they stand, and they have higher ceilings. I think there's just no ceiling with Tony Pollard.
00:19:21
Speaker 1: Tony Pollard is RB twenty six in our half star rankings, So yeah, just a very high end RB three currently in the rankings. Ryan, does that sound too high, too low, or just right to you?
00:19:34
Speaker 3: I think it sounds about right. Honestly. I am fine with Pollard this season, and just directly answered Jake's question. I think the ceiling comes from just if cam Ward is better than anybody thinks, would that be such a surprise that a first overall drafted quarterback is immediately way better than kind of the scouting industrial complex. I thought that we've seen that happen plenty of times, and if that's the case, then this is suddenly a good offense that I think the Titans are. It's a much more like volatile projection in terms of what their points per game output is going to be, just because of the cam Ward factor. And yeah, with Pollard, we saw him be a bellcow for pretty much the entirety of last year. He did put up big fantasy weeks in a handful of games that the Titans were not totally out of. So yeah, I kind of like Pollard probably a little bit more of like a best Ball style pick, because yes, I don't see like the massive League winning season out of him, like you might from a rookie like an RJ. Harvey, for example. But yeah, I think Pollard's totally fin where he's going. It's not that offensive to me.
00:20:44
Speaker 1: The interesting thing with Pollard is like I feel like, when I say RB twenty six, that doesn't sound crazy in a vacuum. But then I look at the few names going after him, at least in terms of ECR, and like, RB twenty seven is Judkins, RB twenty eight is Pachecko, RB twenty nine is Caleb Johnson, RB thirty Bryan Robinson Junior. And I'm like, I kind of could see the case for all those guys ahead of him, So it's like, I don't like twenty six, does it sound terrible? But then I look at the names after him, and I just feel like maybe he should move down a bit, Not that I think you should be like in the mid to late thirties or anything of drastic, but I do like a lot of those names that are going directly after him just a little bit better. So I can kind of see both sides of this case. Ryan, Let's go to your next running back.
00:21:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my next guy is someone we've mentioned it's David Montgomery. And even aside from all the touchdown efficiency stuff that Jake brought up earlier, my kind of bigger concern is just can the Lions maintain as valuable of a backfield and as valuable of a rushing attack as they have had over the last two seasons. Last year, their entire backfield was worth about thirty expected Fantasy points per game, which is insane. That was by far the most The Bucks were second, I think, and they were down at like twenty five or somewhere around there. But that giant backfield pie was actually split pretty much perfectly fifty to fifty in games that both Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs were healthy. So that kind of leaves us with two ways for Montgomery to just fall out of, like the RB two and flex tire. Either the Lions can't maintain that valuable of a backfield with fewer tds. Maybe they have to pass more lots of different ways that you can just imagine the offense regressing without Ben Johnson, or alternatively, their new OC couldn't come in and just decide, hey, I'm going to give a slightly larger snapshare to Jamiir Gibbs, who we saw average over one hundred and sixty five yards from scrimmage per game in the four games they gave him like a sixty six percent snapshare without with Montgomery out. So either of those things happen and all of a sudden, Montgomery is not a handcuff that you can play in your flex now. He's just an extremely expensive handcuff that is not really providing much value week to week without a Jamier Gibbs injury. And that's true of basically every other much cheaper, true handcuff running back, like your Zach Charmonat's, your Isaac Rundo's or whatever your preferred flavor is there. So yeah, with the upside case for Montgomery just being the GIDS injury, I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB two.
00:23:21
Speaker 1: Jake, where do you have Montgomery rank? He's RB twenty one in ECR and HALFVPR I.
00:23:26
Speaker 2: Have but twenty six. I'm with Ryan on this one. A lot of things he said, as I've echoed on these shows past couple of weeks, is that we're just assuming everything's gonna be fine, as in the ranks are showing that we're assuming everything's going to be fine and it's just gonna be copy paste for the Lions. And I haven't mentioned in my breakout calumn, I brought up Jameson Williams and was like, part of the case against him would be that John Morton comes in and does go that route or does change the offense just a little bit. They even said early on Golf has been mentioned as saying is like there's gonna be slight differences that you'll see. Well, if we're seeing it, it might be bigger than he's letting on in the fact of like it's slight to him, but it's bigger in the overall scheme of things. And just you know, the rag Now thing is impressive because it's still as good as he was as a blocker, playing through the injury led torn pack playing through that last year. Like that's a loss that we have to factor in. There's just a lot of issues where it's just it's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years. And if you go back to Morton, like you know, coming from a system that in the last two years at least has been the Sean Payton. But if you go to the last time he was the offensive corneator, way way way back with the Jets, here's a name to throw out for everybody. He leaned on Ballall Powell a lot, and that was with Matt Forte's corpse in that backfield. But I say that to say, this is why I echo Ryan is because even Balal Powell he like kind of lean on. He wasn't a true bell cow. But to Ryan's point, what if Morton's style is to say, I had this amazing running back in Gibbs, I'm going to give him ten percent more, which isn't a lot, but it's enough to say, oh my gosh, David mcgarmy's going from scoring twelve thirteen on the ground to nine and only one hundred and fifty touches, and that's just that's gonna make them an RB three.
00:25:06
Speaker 1: Similar question, Jake to what we talked about with Houston, the offense environment overall, If you had to put a number to it, with the offensive coordinator change, where do think the Lions end up this year in scoring?
00:25:16
Speaker 2: If I would almost guarantee money still top ten's, the question is whether or not it's top five and that, but that top five top ten is the difference of whether or not we care about Dave Montgomery's in RB two.
00:25:27
Speaker 1: Ryan, Do you see them as more top five or top ten?
00:25:30
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I got a pick. Now, Yeah I'm going to I'm going to go outside the top five will be my prediction.
00:25:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, winner. Remind everybody about one last tool today. Draft Intel shows you how your league mates actually draft based on up to five years of real data. Find out who always takes wide receivers, early fades, tight ends, or targets quarterbacks late. Use those tendencies in the draft simulator to test real strategies against your actual league. Try it now at fantasypros dot com, slash Intel and draft smarter than ever. J can give me another mid round running back you are avoiding.
00:26:03
Speaker 2: So this is a lot of kind of opinion on this one. It's tyrone, tracy and the fact that I do believe that Skataboo can come in and be and likely be the lead, mostly because and I just did a show recently with Joe on Fantasy Pros on here, and I said, I think some of us in Fantasy like the world I'm talking to everybody, analyst and players. It's just like we get enamored with, oh my gosh, he came from nowhere. I put that on quotes like he came unexpected. I found this guy and liked all the talent. He even surprised the NFL. And then it's like you don't want to let go and like sometimes, in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy is a great complimentary running back. I was somebody who was on Tracy last year, mostly because I wasn't a big ve Devin Singletary and the rest and Gray and all the other running backs. But I think that while he took everybody by well not everybody, but took a lot of people by surprise, he's still a limited running back. And one of the limits that the concern is even part of his game is Brian Dable benched him to go back to Singletary because he was fumbling the ball. And I'm not saying that's something that can't be corrected and you just keep a guy off the field because he fumbles. We yelled at years of Belichick doing that, like, just give the best guy the ball. Adrian Peterson fumbled. We know that, but I'm saying all is to present is that I think Scataboo versus Tracy. If I'm taking talent versus talent, I would take Scataboo over Tracy. And I think part of Scataboo's game that gets underrated is his pass catching ability, which is really where the game of Tracy comes from because of his explosiveness. So I see this as more of like a sixty forty split, which means where Tracy is going and drafts is overdrafted, I would happily still take Tracy further down. Just where he's going. I think he's still being treated as the fifty five to forty five leads split of that backfield, and I think it's actually going to be he's going to be on the back half of it.
00:27:50
Speaker 1: Ryan, what do you think this backfield looks like?
00:27:52
Speaker 3: So I'm like, fairly I would say I don't have an opinion super locked in on how this backfield looks like. But I do have like a way I like to approach these ambiguous backfields, and that's that I don't really care which running back ends up on which side of the fifty five forty five split. I only care about can this running back make it a seventy percent opportunity share, right, especially on a team like the Giants, where that that has to be the case. Further, to really be any fantasy value, there has to be a bell cow it.
00:28:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:28:25
Speaker 3: I try not to get caught up so much in what's the likelihood of being at a fifty five percent versus a forty five percent. In this particular case, I will slightly prefer Scataboo because for the reason that Jake said, because I feel more confident in his pass catching abilities. But honestly, this backfield is just not that big of a target for me in general, and I don't feel like particularly stressed part of the factor.
00:28:51
Speaker 2: Too, honestly.
00:28:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, But just to let everybody know the rankings, Tyron Tracy Junior is thirty first amongst our running backs in ECR, and it's got who's fortieth amongst running backs and ECR. So you know, a nine back gap there between the two. Ryan, let's go to the last mid round running back.
00:29:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, So my last mid round guy is DeAndre Swift, and it's for several reasons, but kind of going through some of them. Over his career, Swift has primarily been a man gap rusher, right, in his last season under Ben Johnson, he mostly ran a very man gap heavy scheme, but very notably in that year, Swift averaged a career low seven point one rush attempts per game. And then, I think, very revealingly, as soon as the Lions ship Swift off, Johnson moved to a lot more outside zone and obviously had a lot of success over the last two years doing that with Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery. So if that is Johnson's kind of preferred scheme that he wants to run, Swift doesn't fit it at all. He averages three point two career yards per carry on outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about. I just don't really see the upside with Swift, even if you think, wow, the Bears are going to be a much better offense this year. We just saw DeAndre Swift in a lead back role on a better offense. It was with the Eagles in twenty twenty three. He finished with just twelve and a half fantasy points per game. I don't see the league winning upside out of DeAndre Swift at all. I would much rather be taking shots on guys like Isaiah Paiceco, who we have seen at least for some games be a belcow on a confirmed good offense, even Tony Pollard, just because I can also see a path to that offense being good Steelers running backs taking shots on that ambiguous situation. There are just other places I would rather be sending my bullets than DeAndre Swift.
00:30:56
Speaker 1: This year AREB twenty two. Jake, Is that too high? Too low? Or just right?
00:31:03
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm not crazy off from what Ryan said. I'm just I'm okay. This is similar to what he was saying about my guy earlier. I'm actually okay with Swift, but I'm okay with Swift and knowing what you're getting, like I think, honestly, you could be like, hey, Jake, you're playing both sides of the fence here, because similar to Pollard before, I do think he has a limited ceiling like that I could give you like the why would you take Swift? It's mostly moral. So I'm not a big Roshawn Johnson fan. And maybe I'm wrong in this, or maybe I'm ignoring the connection that Andrew Rickson keeps bringing up on this shows and saying the enemy draft a Pacheco out of Rutgers and he's with the Bears now, and Manang Guy is from Rutgers, and that we're down this rabbit hole of like connecting all the dots. But all that being said, well, I think Manang guy's a find late round flyer and this could be a full blown committee, or Ben Johnson could just say like, hey, you're done the Swift and I am going to turn to Johnson or Manang Guy and now you're this. Now you are the Tyrone Tracy that I just brought up. I just feel like he's a decent two hundred and thirty touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bel guy. Don't think he's going to be a league winner. As Ryan said, completely agree with all those I's just I'm kind of okay where he is because where he is, I feel like he's a cool RB two, and in this range, usually that's an RB two with three or four wide receivers already on my team. So it kind of, like I said, it kind of almost sounds like I'm playing both sides with the Pollard Swift thing. But I'm just a little bit more okay with Swift.
00:32:25
Speaker 1: I think For me, it's the difference between ranking and and drafting. Like, I think this is the right ranking for him, but I don't think I'm going to be targeting him at this ranking because I mean, if you just like looking at last five years has finished amongst running backs eighteen, nineteen twenty two, twenty three, nineteen twenty two, you can you know, easily paint that picture that that's the right, you know, number for him to be near. But I don't want him at this range. There are gonna be other players that I'd rather have or I'd rather wait, and a lot of those names that you mentioned Ryan, that you know you'd have, you know, Steelers backfield, you know some of the upside plays elsewhere that are going later than him. I would just rather wait and target a guy there. So I think it's worth mentioning that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your your draft day strategy. And that's good to keep in mind. Let's go to one risky running back from each of you that you are still at tempted to draft that even despite the red flags, you recognize that there is a risk here. That you are still interested in you guys, actually both you made one pick each, but you both mentioned second names that you were considering too, So feel free to mention both if you'd like. But also, who than one guy? Is that if you had to pick one, you are attempted to draft Jake you can go first.
00:33:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think with me, I'm willing to gamble on Javonta Williams. And that's from somebody that's like, go ahead and get Jade on Blue, like I like Blue, and I think a lot of people do. But the truth is, you know they took the chance. It wasn't a big contract. They let Rico down all walk for almost the exact same contract and then brought in Javonte Williams, that being the Cowboys. But you know, we all sit here in the whether you're watching film or watching the games, or looking at the analyst and looking at the metrics or whatever it might be, we've all seen that Javonte Williams is not the same running back since it got hurt. But what if it's the extra year removed? He wouldn't be the first running back that needed that extra year sometimes, And that's oh my gosh, he's finally back. And the thing is he's not going as an RB two. He's not even going where he was last year. He's going somewhere where he's going to be on your bench when you're done drafting, Like you're not drafting him to start RB mid thirties. Okay, what's the if Javonte Williams is ninety percent of what he used to be and he gets two hundred and fifty two hundred and forty touches in his backfield, He's not going to be a league winner, but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more often than not. And Jayden Blue wouldn't be the first ballet hed you know, rookie to like not win the job and just never get out there. Like I mean, what was the dude for the Raiders guy last year that everybody wanted to draft and end up being a non factor and trying to think of his name right now. But there's there's situations where like sometimes the veteran has a chance if he could just show anything, So I will take a chance on Javonte Williams in the mid thirties. The other one I did mention and the only reason I didn't mention him is because I think I've mentioned him on every show with you. Worm is Alvin Kamara. Like, I know everybody wants to fade the Saints offense because it's gonna be worse than the league, But Alvin Kamara is still going to get two hundred and fifty touches and almost what a third of them are going to be in the passing game. So I'm still going to take Alvin kamaras the top fifteen running back. But I think this is the first time I've spoken positively about Javonte Williams this entire offseason.
00:35:34
Speaker 1: I didn't want to interrupt you is a mere White the Raiders running back? You were thinking, No, it was.
00:35:38
Speaker 2: The other one. It's the little small.
00:35:40
Speaker 1: Dude, Abdulah.
00:35:41
Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna pull it up, Raider. It was just drafted last year, was it, Dylan lab Thank you? Yeah, everybody wanted Lobby at the end of a round last year. Is like he's got to take over because they have nobody else, And like that's kind of how I like Blue significantly more than Labba. But I'm just saying, like these scenarios happen.
00:36:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on Javante. I I've been talking about him actually for a couple episodes now. Like again, not that I think he's some league winner wo's gonna finish as an RB one, but if he stays healthy this season, there is no way that he's not giving you value compared to RB thirty six off the drive, I mean, he's barely in RB three in the rankings right now. There is just I don't believe in anybody else in this backfield is going to get in his way. And this is not even saying that I think he's going to be back to his pre injury self. He doesn't need to be in order to give you really good value. I think on that.
00:36:34
Speaker 2: Everybody else this year down by Javante are backups needing something to happen. Javante could legitimately doesn't need anything else to happen, be the lead running back from day one, and that's the one different. Like again, if he gets up to RB twenty six, goodbye, You're never gonna touch my team. But at thirty six, there is worth.
00:36:53
Speaker 1: The gamble, and I think it's gonna be a good offense too. Like I think there's going there are going to be touchdowns available to score. I think this is the comparison that Erickson has made with Javanta this year is like JK Dobbins last year, like a guy with an injury history, but there's nobody else in the backfield. If you think the offense is good enough, that he's just going so late that you can't pass it up. And that's really again, I'm not calling him a league winner, like I'm with you, Jake. I'm not saying there's some insane upside and if he was going higher, I wouldn't be interested. But at this cost, like the opportunity is what it is. Javonte Williams, Ryan, what do you think about him?
00:37:25
Speaker 3: To me, I just don't see that big of a difference between Javonte Williams and like Miles Sanders, which which is kind of my whole issue with him. That with the Cowboys backfield then, and this has been my take on the Cowboys backfield for the last two seasons. It's not a backfield that I believe is very likely to create fantasy value to the point that you're starting anybody in it in like a normal lineup. The only way it happened last year was Dak getting hurt and the team saying, Okay, we're just gonna pack it in and run the ball a ton, even if we're way down. And also Zeke had to skip a meeting or whatever it was for him to get for him to get benched, and for Dowbdell to really take over as a bell cow.
00:38:10
Speaker 4: So yeah, and then.
00:38:13
Speaker 3: Your reward is like a low end RB two. So yeah, I just am not. I can't be on Davante. I can't do it.
00:38:20
Speaker 1: Are you then drafting at RB sixty seven? Are you taking Sanders if you don't see a big difference, but there's a you know, thirty spot?
00:38:30
Speaker 3: Yeah? Maybe? Yeah, I'll say in Best Ball, I've been dabbling in final round Miles Sanders. I think that that has been like a better Best Ball pick than Javonte Williams many rounds earlier. But yeah, I'm just mostly not in on this backfield at all.
00:38:46
Speaker 1: What risky running back? Are you tempted to draft Ryan?
00:38:50
Speaker 2: Yeah?
00:38:50
Speaker 3: So going a little further up the board, I think the guy that best fits this description this year is Bryce Hall. So well. Obviously, everything that happened with Hall last year happened massively disappointed at a top three ADP, but zooming out a little bit. Over his first two seasons in the league, Hall averaged twenty two Fantasy points per game when he was above a fifty percent snapshare, and that's mostly just removing injured games in some like early in twenty twenty three, when he was playing a part time role coming back from that ACL tear. Over his entire career, Hall averages four point eight targets per game. That is fourth best among active players over that span, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Eckler. Hall ranked second in yards per out run among that same group. And I mean you'll notice Christian McCaffrey, Kamara, Eckler, all of these players have been perennial league winners. They have combined for twelve league winning season since twenty seventeen. As measured by ESPN playoff Rate, Hall now is going kind of around pick forty, like late thirties, early forties in most sites. He has smashed that exact ADP in both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. As for why it's risky and why it's very tough for me, but ultimately I'm doing it. I think that Hall was playing injured through even more of last year than we probably recognized. Right, he had a mysterious lower half injury that was the only descriptor we got of it at any point last summer in late May early June. None of the details were ever disclosed, and I think that might be why all of his GPS numbers were down early in the year, and why we saw the Jets kind of randomly from week to week go back and forth between giving Hall like an eighty percent workload down to like fifty five percent. And the situation is just better this year. There's no DeVante Adams anymore. Hall was still up at five and a half targets per game last year before Adams joined the team. The only real concern is everything Aaron Glenn has said this entire offseason about wanting to use all three running backs, but to me, it reads more as hyperbole. Glenn has said stuff like there aren't three other running backs in this league that have the potential of Brace Hall, Brayln Allen, and Isaiah Davis. Like to me, this is kind of Dan Campbell esque in that he will just relentlessly talk up all the players on his roster. He's not actually projecting their usage or their workloads. But when we look at what the actual offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, has said, we know that he's told Hall that he has to be ready to do everything and to play on all three downs. So ultimately, all you need for this pick to massively pay off and potentially become a league winner is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for Hall to stay healthy. That's all it takes. Is It sounds so easy? So yeah, that's why I'm in on Hall. The other guy that I'm in on is Ken Walker. I think he's a little risky for the same reason, just injury history, but I care about that a lot less than probably the average fantasy analyst. We have just seen that the Seahawks are now committed to using Walker as a three down weapon. Mike McDonald has called him that at multiple points over the last two years, second in total miss tackles force behind only Derrek Henry. You get the Clint Kobak outside zone scheme. We've also seen Kobak funnel targets to running backs in the past. I just love Ken Walker in general as a bet. Think he's a little less risky than.
00:42:46
Speaker 1: Hall tier three in the expert consensus rankings. Ryan Is, Kyrien Williams, Chase Brown, Brees, Saw, James Cook, Kenneth Walker. So we've already established that you are kind of fading cooked there. How would you compare holl And Walker to Kyrin and Chase Brown? Do you like them better than those guys? Or are you comfortable with where they're ranked? You're just also targeting them.
00:43:04
Speaker 3: I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys are ranked. If I had to rank them straight up, it would be Chase Brown, Walker, Hall, Kyn But I'm totally fine with where all of them are generally going.
00:43:17
Speaker 1: Jake, what do you think about both Briest Hall and Kenneth Walker.
00:43:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, if people have tuned into the previous shows, they know that I'm apparently the Kenneth Walker hater. So just just established that that I'd be more in on Hall. You know, everything that Ryan said, completely agree with. And the thing is, if Hall was going earlier than he was and actually where he was going about two or three months ago, I was more off on Hall initially than to the value where he's at now, which I think is a fine price. Mostly the concerns and Ryan pretty much touched on them, like I do have some concerns if you look at the Justin Fields offense from past years, and I know, completely different teams and completely different schemes, but getting to that goal line, you kind of all set Justin Fields at the goal line with the bigger power. And it's not that Breese Hall doesn't have his own power like Briesse Hall is a terrific three down running back. It's just what if there is some truth to this and what if Braylan Allen is the discount David Montgomery to this team, and you know you're looking at the situation where Breshall turns into Demer Gibbs and it's the Jets versus the Lions that we don't like the offense as much as the two and that's just my concern. My concern is that the touchdown equity takes a hit if they really do lean on Braylon Allen as the power option, which is something that he excels at and again not that Breecee Hall can't. And then you have the chicken in the egg argument like you have the Justin Fields doesn't throw to his running backs a lot well, was that, you know, a microcosm of what he was dealing with at running back or is that just how Justin Fields plays his offense. So all those concerns I'm saying is why Brice Hall's not going as an RB one and that that mysterious injury. I love that you bring it up to because like late in the year we also got it might be the need that he had the acls ery on and like that just terrified me. But that was last year at the end of the year. But if that somehow carried over, all I'm saying is to say, even with all those concerns, where he's going, I'm okay. If he starts to get positive news and creeps back up and gets close to top ten like he was two or three months ago, I'm probably out at that point. But where he is now as kind of like what is your RB thirteen fourteen, I'm totally okay with that.
00:45:25
Speaker 1: We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are all of our running backs to run from, plus a couple that we are considering drafting there at the end. Thank you to both Ryan and Jake for joining us today, and thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros.
Speaker 1: Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Jake Seey from The Athletic and by Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points Fellas. We are into July. It is July second as of the day we are recording this, so we are just a month away from the height of draft season. But really it does feel like it ramps up right about now that July fourth is kind of the milestone for where things really kick into high gear. So it's a very exciting time of year. I'm really excited to be talking some running backs to run from on today's show with the two of you. These are running backs that we will be avoiding, and we're gonna throw in some at the end that maybe, even though they're risky, have some red flags that we are still considering drafting as well. Jake, like I said, into July, now, how are you doing, man.
00:00:41
Speaker 2: I'm doing good, and I'm doing really good. It's July. I have what two or three more weeks before the real hell storm starts for all of us, but at least it's creeping in. We know that the people want it.
00:00:52
Speaker 1: I feel like every year gets a little bit earlier and earlier in the off season that you see the swarm start covering.
00:00:57
Speaker 2: All the sites. We're all doing the same thing as like, well, they're already out of so now we need to jump in front of them, and we need to jump in front by the time we turn around in two years, we're gonna be releasing this kit on like maybe.
00:01:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's earlier at earlier year. Ryan, this is the first time we're doing a show together. Man, thanks for coming on.
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, thanks for having me so much. Very excited. Yeah, awesome to meet and work with both of you. This should be a really fun show.
00:01:20
Speaker 1: What do you have going on at Fantasy Points right now?
00:01:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, right now, kind of just grinding through a bunch of off season articles. I am writing about a bunch of different metrics that we have in the Fantasy Points data suite and like some different ways that those can get you an edge in your fantasy league. So talking about like design, targets, expected Fantasy Points, all sorts of good stuff. So yeah, you can check all that out all my writing on fantasy points dot com.
00:01:47
Speaker 1: Jake, any projects you're working on at the Athletic.
00:01:49
Speaker 2: Actually my breakout top seven wide receivers just came out today and I actually use Fantasy points to back up my opinion of Josh Downs and using his separation score and win rate percentage. I like to do the mix of both. And so yeah, I was on the site yesterday. Thank you Scott Barrett for that.
00:02:06
Speaker 1: Nice We love the synergy going on here already. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our twenty twenty five consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. You can go to all your different scoring formats. From there, We're gonna got to go through some early round running backs first that we think are a little overvalued, then some mid round guys. Then we'll wrap with the players that we are considering still drafting even with some of these red flags. Jake, let's start with you, your first overvalue running back that's going early.
00:02:33
Speaker 2: I figure, why not coming out of the gate strong right, Just everybody to turn the show off, like screw it, not listening to the rest of it. But it'ch Ashton Genty and that's look. I couldn't have lauded Ashton Genty more than most everybody did coming to this draft. We know how good he is. But then I look at it and it really comes to I'm avoiding him where he's going because if we're going by consensus, he's RB four and I'm just not gonna take him as RB four, not because I don't believe in Genty, not though I don't believe that the Raiders offense can be better than it has been, especially with Gino Smith and everything they've done. I just don't believe in taking Genty in front of Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs. And I know there's a Christian McCaffrey argument out there, but I'll still take him, mostly because I know this team still has to face some of the toughest run defenses in the league. Twice they face the Chiefs, and I know this is all on paper. Things can change by the time that they face each other, and that happens every single year. But I just look at Genty and I go back to Bjon Robinson, who we were all excited about. Bijon was going second, third, fourth, running back off the board because he's Bjon Robinson just like Genty is right now. And as a disappointment, Bjon Robinson was RB eight or nine and That's where I have gent to have him at eight, because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit hit him a little bit, and if nothing more that it might not be the touches. He'll get three hundred touches, but they might limit him on the touchdown upside. I just think he's a fine pick early in the second round. I'm just not taking him mid early first and then has the fourth running back off the board.
00:03:58
Speaker 1: That's all it is.
00:03:58
Speaker 2: It's not that I hate him, I just hate where he's going.
00:04:01
Speaker 1: Ryan, what do you think about gend He's RB four, right at the top of tier two in our expert consensus rankings. Obviously as a rookie, you know everybody's super excited, but we haven't actually seen yet. Do you agree with Jake that early second round is more where you're comfortable or do you see him as a first round player.
00:04:16
Speaker 3: I am kind of with Jake here. I'm glad that Jake picked him because genty was who I wanted to pick kind of, but then I was too scared to write down his name essentially, But yeah, I mean of the running backs going in the first round, Genty is the one I'm the least excited about. I would rather draft Christian McCaffrey. I would rather draft Devon ah Chan. And yeah, it really is just because of the offense. I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Gino Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offense than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Genty to really post a truly league winning RB one season.
00:04:55
Speaker 1: Ran, would you rather Genty or Derek Henry? Because you mentioned a Chan and McCaffrey. Those guys are RB six in our in our expert consensus rankings. Henry's RB five, so he's ahead of both those guys as well. Between jen and Henry, who would you prefer?
00:05:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would take Henry as well.
00:05:09
Speaker 1: Okay, that is one that I hope people don't turn off because if but you know, there are at least some people who disagree with you. There, Jake Ryan, let's go to your first early overvalued running back.
00:05:18
Speaker 3: So my overvalued guy is someone that Jake actually just mentioned. It's Josh Jacobs. For me, I can't get on board with a top two or top three round ADP for Jacobs, and it's because I expect the Packers offense to just look very different. So last year they average a negative four and a half percent pass rate over expectation. That just means that they were the third most run heavy team in the league, controlling for down and distance, in game situation and game script and all of that, right, But that's not what we've seen out of Matt Lafleur's offenses historically. Over the past three seasons. They ranked fourteenth, twentieth and fifth most pass heavy by that same metric. They just added Matthew Golden in Round one. There's likely an intention here to get back at least to a more balanced attack. And even before Jordan Love's mid season groin injury, he was averaging thirty five point eight pass attempts per game that was fourth most among quarterbacks. So just kind of this confluence of factors that happened last year, with Love getting banged up and with the Packers kind of beating up on a lot of really bad teams in the second half of the year, it led to all of this awesome production for Jacobs. But I just don't expect the environment to be the same this year. The Packers have a bottom ten schedule by opponent Vegas win total, so again, they're probably not going to be coasting to wins like they were last year. And Jacobs has been very game script sensitive over his career. He averages seven fewer points per game and half PPR formats in losses than he doesn't win since twenty twenty two. So I would just much rather have kind of any other second or third round running back than Jacob's at this point.
00:07:04
Speaker 1: I really agree with you on this one, Ryan. I think the point about Love's injury is just like very central to this argument, and I would be very surprised if they are as run heavy this year as they were last year, assuming Love is healthy. I want to quickly ask you before I throw to Jake on Jacobs, do you think Jordan Love is then undervalued if you're expecting more passing? He's currently QB seventeen. I know this is a running backs episode, but I'm curious, like, if you are lower on Jacobs, does that mean that you are higher on Love.
00:07:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a bit higher on Love than that. It's hard for single quarterback leagues just because like the big upside qbs are really all that matter, but yeah, certainly in super flex, I think Love is a great pick, and I think maybe the most actionable way to do this is Matthew Golden and Jayden Reid. If I'm correct and the Packers are throwing more, both of those guys are really interesting values.
00:07:54
Speaker 1: Jake, how do you see this offense plan out as Josh Jacobs overvalued at RB nine.
00:07:58
Speaker 2: I actually think he's probably pretty much right in value. I'm obviously on the slim side of this one because you guys are in agreement, but I would take him in the second round, mostly because I actually don't disagree a lot with what Ryan said. It mostly comes down to it. Even if you go back to two years ago, we're still talking about over three hundred and thirty carries between Jones and Dylan in that backfield, and if you just take Jones in the passing game that year, about forty targets, which that's all. I don't expect Josh Jacobs to all of a sudden off set the rushing concerns with seventy targets. That's not going to happen. But I think the touchdown equity is still going to be valuable. I do think that I actually have him for less touches or fewer touches to do it correctly according to Game of Thrones, fewer touches in the run game. But I still think hovering around three ten to three twenty receptions included is why I'm okay with Jacobs. I would agree if he was first round, early second but I would take him neck and neck, like I said right with Genti, because I believe in the touchdown. I think their touches could be similar. I think the touchdowns will be better for Jacobs, and maybe that's where it's a little bit different. So I am willing to take him in the second round.
00:09:04
Speaker 1: My dad is an English teacher, so that line of Game of Thrones of fewer is his favorite line in the show. I would have to imagine, by the way, I love Jake when you say I agree with what Ryan said, because I can pretend you're talking about me, and that actually works because I could agree with the Ryans exactly. I do want to revide everybody about our cheat Sheet Creator. If you're tired of draft day uncertainty, The cheat Sheet Creator is your personal guide to perfect league specific rankings, visualize your path to victory, as you add tears and sink your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sink your league and enter your draft with confidence using the cheat sheet creator at fantasypros dot com slash sheet or on the Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app. All right, Jake, let's go to your next early overvalued running back.
00:09:49
Speaker 2: Way overvalue in my opinion, and this was before the signing. To add even more concern in this backfield Chubb. But we always say like we never own a player, and like, well, as some point there's always gonna be a breaking point where if he falls far enough that you will draft said player. I have a feeling this is one that I actually will never own because I have Joe Mixon in the mid twenties. I cannot ignore the injury concern the signing, and honestly, even if you look at the drafting situation of Woody Marx, I actually thought Woody Marx was a very nice handcuff initially before the signing to say that, hey, if Joe Mixon isn't one hundred percent similar skill set in some ways to Joe mix in some ways not all, But look at this badfield. I'm just like, man, this is this is about to be gross. And I think that you see that the Texans were not confident in what they had. They added Marx. They know that Damian Pierce hasn't been the answer since his rookie season, but they went out and made the signing Nick Chubb and said, like, hey, maybe Joe Mixon, we should be more concerned than we already were. I already had Joe Mixon outside the top fifteen before the signing, and like I said, now I have him down in the range of like a Pachecko. Like I'd rather just take Pachecko and hope he rebounds to his pre injury performance than to gamble that mixing is anything what he's been. And as much as we've enjoyed mixing in fantasy, I don't think you'll find a single person that would argue against saying he's been volume reliant. And so if the volume's not there and it's not you know, the worst case in the world to say, hey, he is volume reliant. But if he's not getting three hundred touches and he's only getting two hundred, I mean, honestly, a mid RB two might be the best case scenario.
00:11:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jake, even aside from the more crowded backfield, Like I think we're hoping that the Texans throw more too. I mean, it was it became like a running gag last year that they started every drive on second and nine because they were just running for sometimes a loss, but usually like a yard or two at most to start every series.
00:11:40
Speaker 2: As that there's the Giants offense. They stole their playbook.
00:11:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm with you on this, Like, I could see myself having Joe mixing in some leagues, but I'm gonna feel terrible about it if I do, and I will not be aggressively going after that. So far far from it. Ryan, what do you think about mixing this year?
00:12:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything that Jake said. Another thing I would add is that this Texans offensive line could once again be easily the worst in the league. The reports right now out of camp are that they're just rotating starters at all the positions. They don't know where anybody's actually playing like that. That's just very very bad vibes to me. So yeah, fully with Jake here, I also do not want mixing on any of my teams.
00:12:25
Speaker 1: Do you guys think that there will be more scoring opportunities, Like you're expecting a bounce back from the offense in general, and we're just not certain that those scoring opputems are going to go to mix in Ryan, or are you hesitant about actually seeing kind of a bounce back with a revamped offensive line and everything in Houston?
00:12:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just hesitant kind of about everything in Houston. We have seen CJ. Stroud just take awful, awful sacks for his and really a little bit in his rookie year, but also especially in a sophomore season, every time that the defense runs a stunt, he just immediately gets. The Texans line was the worse against stunts of any team last year. So yeah, I just think that it, at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit. So yeah, I'm pretty worried about the entire offense.
00:13:16
Speaker 1: Jake, where do you think this offense finishes the season scoring?
00:13:20
Speaker 2: I would love to say middle of the pack, But I think another part of it is even if it gets to the middle of the pack. Something that the other Ryan Ryan Heath was saying about the Packers is I think you could see them passing more. To your point is that I think they get back to a little bit more from two years ago, which of course would affect Joe Mixon even if we didn't have the job in Marx and health concerns.
00:13:42
Speaker 1: Ryan, who's your next early overvalued running back?
00:13:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, my next guy's a little bit boring because it's a very like one dimensional argument and reason. But it's James Cook for me. I think he's overvalued still, and the reason for that is really just touchdown regression. So Cook converted twenty five percent of his red zone carries into touchdowns last year. That was easily the most in the NFL. It was more than all of the league's like best and most efficient goal line backs, better than Derrick Henry, better than David Montgomery, like just all insane touchdown efficiency that we saw from him on the ground. On top of that, Josh Allen is always going to take around thirty percent of the red zone carries right off the top, at the very least at fantasy points. We have a metric called expected Fantasy points per game, which will just kind of show you how valuable each touch is because it's different in the red zone near the goal line or what have you. But by that metric, Cook ranked as just the RB twenty five last year with only twelve point six expected Fantasy points per game. Right now, he's going as around the RB twelve, kind of as a fringe RB one. That's how he scored last year. But I just don't think it's likely he does it again. And even worse, he kind of took a step back as a receiver, averaging just two point four targets per game, and that was because of Ty Johnson, of all players, who's taking you off the field on third downs. So I just it gives me really bad vibes. I don't like it at all. Generally, to be like a truly league winning running back, you need to average at least three and a half targets per game. It seems unlikely for Cook at least if they continue to run their offense in their backfield the way they have. So yeah, Cook is a fade for me right now.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one, Jake? I know, in addition to everything that Ryan has said, you know, Pat Fitzmorris here at Fantasy Rose is also really high in Ray Davis just says, like another person in this backfield. Do you think Cook is overvalued, Jake, I.
00:15:43
Speaker 2: Mean, he's slightly overvalued. It seems that at least somewhat of the community, the fantasy community, it realizes what Ryan says, and he's a spot on with this. I mean, if you go to David Montgomery, who had if you just talk about pure rush is to touchdown as a six point five percent mark, which is extremely high. Seven point seven of his rushes went for a touchdown, and then he gave you that conversion rate on top of it. I mean, these are numbers that we haven't seen since Legarrett Blunt's year, Like this is just it's not normal. This doesn't happen. And if you look at Lagarrett Blunt completely different team also, but also completely different running back. I just don't think this is going to continue. And I think that's what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue. And if you take even six touchdowns, which is even a cutting in half, but if he takes six away, we're talking about an RB two just because he only still ran the ball two hundred and seven times. So I'm with Ryan on this one. Discreat on the first one, but completely on board within this one is I'd rather have James Cook further down the draft of that Ken. The good news is is because of where he's going, I'm usually taking a wide receiver here. Anyway.
00:16:44
Speaker 1: Nothing beats relaxing on a hot summer day and watching baseball, and the simplest way to get in on the action is to download the Pick six app from DraftKings. It's crazy simple. Just pick more or less on the stats for two or more of your favorite players, and boom, you're in the mix for big cash prizes. No gimmicks, no rules, just ball nail your picks and you're heating up. Pick six brings upside with payouts up to five hundred times. Pick six is live in a ton of states Texas, California, Georgia, Missouri, and lots more. Don't settle for a smaller payout. Switch to pick six and right now, new customers can take advantage of a special sign up offer. Pick six from DraftKings is the most fun way to play fantasy sports. Download the DraftKings Pick six app now and use code Fantasy pros. That's code Fantasy pros for new customers to get a special sign up offer, better payouts, bigger wins only with Pick six from DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
00:17:31
Speaker 4: Gambling problem Call one eight hundred. Gambler help is available for problem gambling call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot orgon Connecticut. Must be eighteen and over age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick six non available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void were prohibited one per new customer. Bonus awarded as none withdrawable Pick six credits that expire in fourteen days limited time offer. See terms at pick six dot DraftKings dot com slash promos.
00:17:58
Speaker 1: All right, guys, let's move to sort of the middle round running backs now, Jake starting with.
00:18:02
Speaker 2: You, Yeah, and I already got a couple questions so far this preseason, and like, why do you hate Tony Pollard? And I'll give you the easy answer of why I hate Tony Pollard's just because I hate where's the ceiling? Like we've just seen the best and actually the best of Tony Poller. To talk about the touchdown regression we were just talking about with James Cook, the best year is when he ran for nine with the Cowboys, and he's had six and six hovering in that eleven points per game range. And it's even with the questions of okay, if Spear's gonna finally do something, and it's mostly still been Tony Pollard as the clear lead, and we still get best case scenario as a back end RB two, like where's the ceiling? Like even if there was nobody else in this bathfield, the ceiling is still like, Okay, cool, he's a mid RB two, And that's my issue with it, is that he's going as a back end RB two and I'd rather have him as an RB three or the first running back off my bench. Maybe if you know, if I had four wide receivers and a running back and he's my second RB cool, I can get with. But that's why I have him thirty three is because that's where i'd want him. I would rather have Cam Skataboo and Judkins's rookies. I'd rather have Brian Robinson as his situation with the Commanders. There's just other running backs I would take because their similar value as they stand, and they have higher ceilings. I think there's just no ceiling with Tony Pollard.
00:19:21
Speaker 1: Tony Pollard is RB twenty six in our half star rankings, So yeah, just a very high end RB three currently in the rankings. Ryan, does that sound too high, too low, or just right to you?
00:19:34
Speaker 3: I think it sounds about right. Honestly. I am fine with Pollard this season, and just directly answered Jake's question. I think the ceiling comes from just if cam Ward is better than anybody thinks, would that be such a surprise that a first overall drafted quarterback is immediately way better than kind of the scouting industrial complex. I thought that we've seen that happen plenty of times, and if that's the case, then this is suddenly a good offense that I think the Titans are. It's a much more like volatile projection in terms of what their points per game output is going to be, just because of the cam Ward factor. And yeah, with Pollard, we saw him be a bellcow for pretty much the entirety of last year. He did put up big fantasy weeks in a handful of games that the Titans were not totally out of. So yeah, I kind of like Pollard probably a little bit more of like a best Ball style pick, because yes, I don't see like the massive League winning season out of him, like you might from a rookie like an RJ. Harvey, for example. But yeah, I think Pollard's totally fin where he's going. It's not that offensive to me.
00:20:44
Speaker 1: The interesting thing with Pollard is like I feel like, when I say RB twenty six, that doesn't sound crazy in a vacuum. But then I look at the few names going after him, at least in terms of ECR, and like, RB twenty seven is Judkins, RB twenty eight is Pachecko, RB twenty nine is Caleb Johnson, RB thirty Bryan Robinson Junior. And I'm like, I kind of could see the case for all those guys ahead of him, So it's like, I don't like twenty six, does it sound terrible? But then I look at the names after him, and I just feel like maybe he should move down a bit, Not that I think you should be like in the mid to late thirties or anything of drastic, but I do like a lot of those names that are going directly after him just a little bit better. So I can kind of see both sides of this case. Ryan, Let's go to your next running back.
00:21:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, so my next guy is someone we've mentioned it's David Montgomery. And even aside from all the touchdown efficiency stuff that Jake brought up earlier, my kind of bigger concern is just can the Lions maintain as valuable of a backfield and as valuable of a rushing attack as they have had over the last two seasons. Last year, their entire backfield was worth about thirty expected Fantasy points per game, which is insane. That was by far the most The Bucks were second, I think, and they were down at like twenty five or somewhere around there. But that giant backfield pie was actually split pretty much perfectly fifty to fifty in games that both Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs were healthy. So that kind of leaves us with two ways for Montgomery to just fall out of, like the RB two and flex tire. Either the Lions can't maintain that valuable of a backfield with fewer tds. Maybe they have to pass more lots of different ways that you can just imagine the offense regressing without Ben Johnson, or alternatively, their new OC couldn't come in and just decide, hey, I'm going to give a slightly larger snapshare to Jamiir Gibbs, who we saw average over one hundred and sixty five yards from scrimmage per game in the four games they gave him like a sixty six percent snapshare without with Montgomery out. So either of those things happen and all of a sudden, Montgomery is not a handcuff that you can play in your flex now. He's just an extremely expensive handcuff that is not really providing much value week to week without a Jamier Gibbs injury. And that's true of basically every other much cheaper, true handcuff running back, like your Zach Charmonat's, your Isaac Rundo's or whatever your preferred flavor is there. So yeah, with the upside case for Montgomery just being the GIDS injury, I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB two.
00:23:21
Speaker 1: Jake, where do you have Montgomery rank? He's RB twenty one in ECR and HALFVPR I.
00:23:26
Speaker 2: Have but twenty six. I'm with Ryan on this one. A lot of things he said, as I've echoed on these shows past couple of weeks, is that we're just assuming everything's gonna be fine, as in the ranks are showing that we're assuming everything's going to be fine and it's just gonna be copy paste for the Lions. And I haven't mentioned in my breakout calumn, I brought up Jameson Williams and was like, part of the case against him would be that John Morton comes in and does go that route or does change the offense just a little bit. They even said early on Golf has been mentioned as saying is like there's gonna be slight differences that you'll see. Well, if we're seeing it, it might be bigger than he's letting on in the fact of like it's slight to him, but it's bigger in the overall scheme of things. And just you know, the rag Now thing is impressive because it's still as good as he was as a blocker, playing through the injury led torn pack playing through that last year. Like that's a loss that we have to factor in. There's just a lot of issues where it's just it's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years. And if you go back to Morton, like you know, coming from a system that in the last two years at least has been the Sean Payton. But if you go to the last time he was the offensive corneator, way way way back with the Jets, here's a name to throw out for everybody. He leaned on Ballall Powell a lot, and that was with Matt Forte's corpse in that backfield. But I say that to say, this is why I echo Ryan is because even Balal Powell he like kind of lean on. He wasn't a true bell cow. But to Ryan's point, what if Morton's style is to say, I had this amazing running back in Gibbs, I'm going to give him ten percent more, which isn't a lot, but it's enough to say, oh my gosh, David mcgarmy's going from scoring twelve thirteen on the ground to nine and only one hundred and fifty touches, and that's just that's gonna make them an RB three.
00:25:06
Speaker 1: Similar question, Jake to what we talked about with Houston, the offense environment overall, If you had to put a number to it, with the offensive coordinator change, where do think the Lions end up this year in scoring?
00:25:16
Speaker 2: If I would almost guarantee money still top ten's, the question is whether or not it's top five and that, but that top five top ten is the difference of whether or not we care about Dave Montgomery's in RB two.
00:25:27
Speaker 1: Ryan, Do you see them as more top five or top ten?
00:25:30
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I got a pick. Now, Yeah I'm going to I'm going to go outside the top five will be my prediction.
00:25:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, winner. Remind everybody about one last tool today. Draft Intel shows you how your league mates actually draft based on up to five years of real data. Find out who always takes wide receivers, early fades, tight ends, or targets quarterbacks late. Use those tendencies in the draft simulator to test real strategies against your actual league. Try it now at fantasypros dot com, slash Intel and draft smarter than ever. J can give me another mid round running back you are avoiding.
00:26:03
Speaker 2: So this is a lot of kind of opinion on this one. It's tyrone, tracy and the fact that I do believe that Skataboo can come in and be and likely be the lead, mostly because and I just did a show recently with Joe on Fantasy Pros on here, and I said, I think some of us in Fantasy like the world I'm talking to everybody, analyst and players. It's just like we get enamored with, oh my gosh, he came from nowhere. I put that on quotes like he came unexpected. I found this guy and liked all the talent. He even surprised the NFL. And then it's like you don't want to let go and like sometimes, in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy is a great complimentary running back. I was somebody who was on Tracy last year, mostly because I wasn't a big ve Devin Singletary and the rest and Gray and all the other running backs. But I think that while he took everybody by well not everybody, but took a lot of people by surprise, he's still a limited running back. And one of the limits that the concern is even part of his game is Brian Dable benched him to go back to Singletary because he was fumbling the ball. And I'm not saying that's something that can't be corrected and you just keep a guy off the field because he fumbles. We yelled at years of Belichick doing that, like, just give the best guy the ball. Adrian Peterson fumbled. We know that, but I'm saying all is to present is that I think Scataboo versus Tracy. If I'm taking talent versus talent, I would take Scataboo over Tracy. And I think part of Scataboo's game that gets underrated is his pass catching ability, which is really where the game of Tracy comes from because of his explosiveness. So I see this as more of like a sixty forty split, which means where Tracy is going and drafts is overdrafted, I would happily still take Tracy further down. Just where he's going. I think he's still being treated as the fifty five to forty five leads split of that backfield, and I think it's actually going to be he's going to be on the back half of it.
00:27:50
Speaker 1: Ryan, what do you think this backfield looks like?
00:27:52
Speaker 3: So I'm like, fairly I would say I don't have an opinion super locked in on how this backfield looks like. But I do have like a way I like to approach these ambiguous backfields, and that's that I don't really care which running back ends up on which side of the fifty five forty five split. I only care about can this running back make it a seventy percent opportunity share, right, especially on a team like the Giants, where that that has to be the case. Further, to really be any fantasy value, there has to be a bell cow it.
00:28:25
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:28:25
Speaker 3: I try not to get caught up so much in what's the likelihood of being at a fifty five percent versus a forty five percent. In this particular case, I will slightly prefer Scataboo because for the reason that Jake said, because I feel more confident in his pass catching abilities. But honestly, this backfield is just not that big of a target for me in general, and I don't feel like particularly stressed part of the factor.
00:28:51
Speaker 2: Too, honestly.
00:28:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, But just to let everybody know the rankings, Tyron Tracy Junior is thirty first amongst our running backs in ECR, and it's got who's fortieth amongst running backs and ECR. So you know, a nine back gap there between the two. Ryan, let's go to the last mid round running back.
00:29:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, So my last mid round guy is DeAndre Swift, and it's for several reasons, but kind of going through some of them. Over his career, Swift has primarily been a man gap rusher, right, in his last season under Ben Johnson, he mostly ran a very man gap heavy scheme, but very notably in that year, Swift averaged a career low seven point one rush attempts per game. And then, I think, very revealingly, as soon as the Lions ship Swift off, Johnson moved to a lot more outside zone and obviously had a lot of success over the last two years doing that with Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery. So if that is Johnson's kind of preferred scheme that he wants to run, Swift doesn't fit it at all. He averages three point two career yards per carry on outside zone and kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about. I just don't really see the upside with Swift, even if you think, wow, the Bears are going to be a much better offense this year. We just saw DeAndre Swift in a lead back role on a better offense. It was with the Eagles in twenty twenty three. He finished with just twelve and a half fantasy points per game. I don't see the league winning upside out of DeAndre Swift at all. I would much rather be taking shots on guys like Isaiah Paiceco, who we have seen at least for some games be a belcow on a confirmed good offense, even Tony Pollard, just because I can also see a path to that offense being good Steelers running backs taking shots on that ambiguous situation. There are just other places I would rather be sending my bullets than DeAndre Swift.
00:30:56
Speaker 1: This year AREB twenty two. Jake, Is that too high? Too low? Or just right?
00:31:03
Speaker 2: Yeah? I'm not crazy off from what Ryan said. I'm just I'm okay. This is similar to what he was saying about my guy earlier. I'm actually okay with Swift, but I'm okay with Swift and knowing what you're getting, like I think, honestly, you could be like, hey, Jake, you're playing both sides of the fence here, because similar to Pollard before, I do think he has a limited ceiling like that I could give you like the why would you take Swift? It's mostly moral. So I'm not a big Roshawn Johnson fan. And maybe I'm wrong in this, or maybe I'm ignoring the connection that Andrew Rickson keeps bringing up on this shows and saying the enemy draft a Pacheco out of Rutgers and he's with the Bears now, and Manang Guy is from Rutgers, and that we're down this rabbit hole of like connecting all the dots. But all that being said, well, I think Manang guy's a find late round flyer and this could be a full blown committee, or Ben Johnson could just say like, hey, you're done the Swift and I am going to turn to Johnson or Manang Guy and now you're this. Now you are the Tyrone Tracy that I just brought up. I just feel like he's a decent two hundred and thirty touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bel guy. Don't think he's going to be a league winner. As Ryan said, completely agree with all those I's just I'm kind of okay where he is because where he is, I feel like he's a cool RB two, and in this range, usually that's an RB two with three or four wide receivers already on my team. So it kind of, like I said, it kind of almost sounds like I'm playing both sides with the Pollard Swift thing. But I'm just a little bit more okay with Swift.
00:32:25
Speaker 1: I think For me, it's the difference between ranking and and drafting. Like, I think this is the right ranking for him, but I don't think I'm going to be targeting him at this ranking because I mean, if you just like looking at last five years has finished amongst running backs eighteen, nineteen twenty two, twenty three, nineteen twenty two, you can you know, easily paint that picture that that's the right, you know, number for him to be near. But I don't want him at this range. There are gonna be other players that I'd rather have or I'd rather wait, and a lot of those names that you mentioned Ryan, that you know you'd have, you know, Steelers backfield, you know some of the upside plays elsewhere that are going later than him. I would just rather wait and target a guy there. So I think it's worth mentioning that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your your draft day strategy. And that's good to keep in mind. Let's go to one risky running back from each of you that you are still at tempted to draft that even despite the red flags, you recognize that there is a risk here. That you are still interested in you guys, actually both you made one pick each, but you both mentioned second names that you were considering too, So feel free to mention both if you'd like. But also, who than one guy? Is that if you had to pick one, you are attempted to draft Jake you can go first.
00:33:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think with me, I'm willing to gamble on Javonta Williams. And that's from somebody that's like, go ahead and get Jade on Blue, like I like Blue, and I think a lot of people do. But the truth is, you know they took the chance. It wasn't a big contract. They let Rico down all walk for almost the exact same contract and then brought in Javonte Williams, that being the Cowboys. But you know, we all sit here in the whether you're watching film or watching the games, or looking at the analyst and looking at the metrics or whatever it might be, we've all seen that Javonte Williams is not the same running back since it got hurt. But what if it's the extra year removed? He wouldn't be the first running back that needed that extra year sometimes, And that's oh my gosh, he's finally back. And the thing is he's not going as an RB two. He's not even going where he was last year. He's going somewhere where he's going to be on your bench when you're done drafting, Like you're not drafting him to start RB mid thirties. Okay, what's the if Javonte Williams is ninety percent of what he used to be and he gets two hundred and fifty two hundred and forty touches in his backfield, He's not going to be a league winner, but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB two spots more often than not. And Jayden Blue wouldn't be the first ballet hed you know, rookie to like not win the job and just never get out there. Like I mean, what was the dude for the Raiders guy last year that everybody wanted to draft and end up being a non factor and trying to think of his name right now. But there's there's situations where like sometimes the veteran has a chance if he could just show anything, So I will take a chance on Javonte Williams in the mid thirties. The other one I did mention and the only reason I didn't mention him is because I think I've mentioned him on every show with you. Worm is Alvin Kamara. Like, I know everybody wants to fade the Saints offense because it's gonna be worse than the league, But Alvin Kamara is still going to get two hundred and fifty touches and almost what a third of them are going to be in the passing game. So I'm still going to take Alvin kamaras the top fifteen running back. But I think this is the first time I've spoken positively about Javonte Williams this entire offseason.
00:35:34
Speaker 1: I didn't want to interrupt you is a mere White the Raiders running back? You were thinking, No, it was.
00:35:38
Speaker 2: The other one. It's the little small.
00:35:40
Speaker 1: Dude, Abdulah.
00:35:41
Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna pull it up, Raider. It was just drafted last year, was it, Dylan lab Thank you? Yeah, everybody wanted Lobby at the end of a round last year. Is like he's got to take over because they have nobody else, And like that's kind of how I like Blue significantly more than Labba. But I'm just saying, like these scenarios happen.
00:36:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on Javante. I I've been talking about him actually for a couple episodes now. Like again, not that I think he's some league winner wo's gonna finish as an RB one, but if he stays healthy this season, there is no way that he's not giving you value compared to RB thirty six off the drive, I mean, he's barely in RB three in the rankings right now. There is just I don't believe in anybody else in this backfield is going to get in his way. And this is not even saying that I think he's going to be back to his pre injury self. He doesn't need to be in order to give you really good value. I think on that.
00:36:34
Speaker 2: Everybody else this year down by Javante are backups needing something to happen. Javante could legitimately doesn't need anything else to happen, be the lead running back from day one, and that's the one different. Like again, if he gets up to RB twenty six, goodbye, You're never gonna touch my team. But at thirty six, there is worth.
00:36:53
Speaker 1: The gamble, and I think it's gonna be a good offense too. Like I think there's going there are going to be touchdowns available to score. I think this is the comparison that Erickson has made with Javanta this year is like JK Dobbins last year, like a guy with an injury history, but there's nobody else in the backfield. If you think the offense is good enough, that he's just going so late that you can't pass it up. And that's really again, I'm not calling him a league winner, like I'm with you, Jake. I'm not saying there's some insane upside and if he was going higher, I wouldn't be interested. But at this cost, like the opportunity is what it is. Javonte Williams, Ryan, what do you think about him?
00:37:25
Speaker 3: To me, I just don't see that big of a difference between Javonte Williams and like Miles Sanders, which which is kind of my whole issue with him. That with the Cowboys backfield then, and this has been my take on the Cowboys backfield for the last two seasons. It's not a backfield that I believe is very likely to create fantasy value to the point that you're starting anybody in it in like a normal lineup. The only way it happened last year was Dak getting hurt and the team saying, Okay, we're just gonna pack it in and run the ball a ton, even if we're way down. And also Zeke had to skip a meeting or whatever it was for him to get for him to get benched, and for Dowbdell to really take over as a bell cow.
00:38:10
Speaker 4: So yeah, and then.
00:38:13
Speaker 3: Your reward is like a low end RB two. So yeah, I just am not. I can't be on Davante. I can't do it.
00:38:20
Speaker 1: Are you then drafting at RB sixty seven? Are you taking Sanders if you don't see a big difference, but there's a you know, thirty spot?
00:38:30
Speaker 3: Yeah? Maybe? Yeah, I'll say in Best Ball, I've been dabbling in final round Miles Sanders. I think that that has been like a better Best Ball pick than Javonte Williams many rounds earlier. But yeah, I'm just mostly not in on this backfield at all.
00:38:46
Speaker 1: What risky running back? Are you tempted to draft Ryan?
00:38:50
Speaker 2: Yeah?
00:38:50
Speaker 3: So going a little further up the board, I think the guy that best fits this description this year is Bryce Hall. So well. Obviously, everything that happened with Hall last year happened massively disappointed at a top three ADP, but zooming out a little bit. Over his first two seasons in the league, Hall averaged twenty two Fantasy points per game when he was above a fifty percent snapshare, and that's mostly just removing injured games in some like early in twenty twenty three, when he was playing a part time role coming back from that ACL tear. Over his entire career, Hall averages four point eight targets per game. That is fourth best among active players over that span, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Eckler. Hall ranked second in yards per out run among that same group. And I mean you'll notice Christian McCaffrey, Kamara, Eckler, all of these players have been perennial league winners. They have combined for twelve league winning season since twenty seventeen. As measured by ESPN playoff Rate, Hall now is going kind of around pick forty, like late thirties, early forties in most sites. He has smashed that exact ADP in both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three. As for why it's risky and why it's very tough for me, but ultimately I'm doing it. I think that Hall was playing injured through even more of last year than we probably recognized. Right, he had a mysterious lower half injury that was the only descriptor we got of it at any point last summer in late May early June. None of the details were ever disclosed, and I think that might be why all of his GPS numbers were down early in the year, and why we saw the Jets kind of randomly from week to week go back and forth between giving Hall like an eighty percent workload down to like fifty five percent. And the situation is just better this year. There's no DeVante Adams anymore. Hall was still up at five and a half targets per game last year before Adams joined the team. The only real concern is everything Aaron Glenn has said this entire offseason about wanting to use all three running backs, but to me, it reads more as hyperbole. Glenn has said stuff like there aren't three other running backs in this league that have the potential of Brace Hall, Brayln Allen, and Isaiah Davis. Like to me, this is kind of Dan Campbell esque in that he will just relentlessly talk up all the players on his roster. He's not actually projecting their usage or their workloads. But when we look at what the actual offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, has said, we know that he's told Hall that he has to be ready to do everything and to play on all three downs. So ultimately, all you need for this pick to massively pay off and potentially become a league winner is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for Hall to stay healthy. That's all it takes. Is It sounds so easy? So yeah, that's why I'm in on Hall. The other guy that I'm in on is Ken Walker. I think he's a little risky for the same reason, just injury history, but I care about that a lot less than probably the average fantasy analyst. We have just seen that the Seahawks are now committed to using Walker as a three down weapon. Mike McDonald has called him that at multiple points over the last two years, second in total miss tackles force behind only Derrek Henry. You get the Clint Kobak outside zone scheme. We've also seen Kobak funnel targets to running backs in the past. I just love Ken Walker in general as a bet. Think he's a little less risky than.
00:42:46
Speaker 1: Hall tier three in the expert consensus rankings. Ryan Is, Kyrien Williams, Chase Brown, Brees, Saw, James Cook, Kenneth Walker. So we've already established that you are kind of fading cooked there. How would you compare holl And Walker to Kyrin and Chase Brown? Do you like them better than those guys? Or are you comfortable with where they're ranked? You're just also targeting them.
00:43:04
Speaker 3: I'm comfortable honestly with where all four of those guys are ranked. If I had to rank them straight up, it would be Chase Brown, Walker, Hall, Kyn But I'm totally fine with where all of them are generally going.
00:43:17
Speaker 1: Jake, what do you think about both Briest Hall and Kenneth Walker.
00:43:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, if people have tuned into the previous shows, they know that I'm apparently the Kenneth Walker hater. So just just established that that I'd be more in on Hall. You know, everything that Ryan said, completely agree with. And the thing is, if Hall was going earlier than he was and actually where he was going about two or three months ago, I was more off on Hall initially than to the value where he's at now, which I think is a fine price. Mostly the concerns and Ryan pretty much touched on them, like I do have some concerns if you look at the Justin Fields offense from past years, and I know, completely different teams and completely different schemes, but getting to that goal line, you kind of all set Justin Fields at the goal line with the bigger power. And it's not that Breese Hall doesn't have his own power like Briesse Hall is a terrific three down running back. It's just what if there is some truth to this and what if Braylan Allen is the discount David Montgomery to this team, and you know you're looking at the situation where Breshall turns into Demer Gibbs and it's the Jets versus the Lions that we don't like the offense as much as the two and that's just my concern. My concern is that the touchdown equity takes a hit if they really do lean on Braylon Allen as the power option, which is something that he excels at and again not that Breecee Hall can't. And then you have the chicken in the egg argument like you have the Justin Fields doesn't throw to his running backs a lot well, was that, you know, a microcosm of what he was dealing with at running back or is that just how Justin Fields plays his offense. So all those concerns I'm saying is why Brice Hall's not going as an RB one and that that mysterious injury. I love that you bring it up to because like late in the year we also got it might be the need that he had the acls ery on and like that just terrified me. But that was last year at the end of the year. But if that somehow carried over, all I'm saying is to say, even with all those concerns, where he's going, I'm okay. If he starts to get positive news and creeps back up and gets close to top ten like he was two or three months ago, I'm probably out at that point. But where he is now as kind of like what is your RB thirteen fourteen, I'm totally okay with that.
00:45:25
Speaker 1: We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are all of our running backs to run from, plus a couple that we are considering drafting there at the end. Thank you to both Ryan and Jake for joining us today, and thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasypros.
