FantasyPros - Are You DRAFTING Or PASSING on These Players in 2025? (Ep. 1597)

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Erickson and by Pat Fitz Morris Fellas. We're talking some draft or pass on certain players for twenty twenty five drafts. We put together some names that our producer John put together, and they are intended to be based on your guys' rankings, Names that we think you will maybe disagree with each other on. You don't have to force it if you don't disagree with each other, but we tried to pick these names ahead of time knowing that you guys, i'd at least do differentiate in how you're ranking them. Currently, we're gonna be going based off our half PPR rankings, so we'll give everybody kind of the overall consensus ranking and ECR, and then the guys will kind of share what they think about this player and if at this cost they are drafting or passing on these guys. Fitz, I am glad you made the time because you it sounds like have had quite a day.
00:00:49
Speaker 2: Yes, new furnace, new air conditioner, and you know, getting those things changed over on a ninety eight degree in degree day in Chicago. Met knowing see for a big chunk of the day. And I'm a guy who likes his ac So yeah, it's been a long, hot day. But you know, I'm now I'm gonna get heated up arguing with Ericson about some of these players he's totally wrong about.
00:01:13
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, it's been a hot day, So I'm expecting some hot takes from fits here as we get into all the different players. Ericson, You've got a move coming up soon yourself. You're just tell me about that before the show.
00:01:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, we close on the wife and I closed on our house last week, so very excited about that. Also celebrated our one year anniversary, so very excited. Next steps, Yeah, next month it's going to be moving into a new house. I'm gonna have a whole new background set up, so it should be a lot of fun. And regards to the heat, I am now currently on my third shirt of today.
00:01:46
Speaker 1: We we the last several days have been like one hundred degrees out here Denver. Today it was in like the low sixties for at least in the morning when I was outside, so it was very surprise. I was wearing a sweatshirt walking my dog this morning, which was literally yesterday. I was like, I was doing some weeding and I couldn't go for about more than fifteen minutes, and I was just too hot and too drenched in sweat. So very very sudden turnaround here in Denver. That's enough complaining about the weather. Let's dive into draft or pass quicker minder for everybody. Like I said, we're gonna be referencing the half EPR rankings. You can find those rankings and all of our consensus twenty twenty five rankings and tiers at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. You can also find Ericson's rankings and fits his rankings there if you want to look at where they have these guys individually. Let's start here at the top. We're going to kind of work our way down through the draft, so we'll start with some of the early round guys, then some mid rounds, then a handful of kind of later round picks. Again, I'm going to kind of present the player. You guys will tell me if you're going to draft or pass here on this player at their costs. We'll start off with Saquon Barkley, who obviously is coming off a league winning season. He was, you know, the best or second best you himrh Jamar Chase a player in fantasy last year, just a remarkable two thousand rushing yard season, his first in Philadelphia. Right now, he is third overall in half VPR and that is RB two actually behind Jon Robinson, who a lot of folks are projecting to surpassing this year. But third overall player fits is that a player you are drafting or passing at his goss.
00:03:15
Speaker 2: I have done one draft for a redraft league, and I did, in fact, end up with Saquon Barkley in that league, getting him fourth overall. I believe and I understand the point Ericson is probably gonna make here, which is that it's kind of terrifying that Saquon had four hundred and eighty two touches last season when you include playoff games, and the pass catching upside isn't what it used to be for Saquon. He had thirty three catches last year, his lowest reception total in any full season since he came into the league, any full non injured season, that is. But Saquon's a special player and he has pretty much the perfect ecosystem in Philadelphia, an outstanding offensive line, a winning team with an excellent young defense, It's going to give the Eagles a lot of run friendly game scripts. Yeah, Saquon could break down after a season of such heavy usage, but it's hard to envision a scenario where Saquin is healthy but turning in unsatisfactory numbers. Like if he's healthy, he's probably going to be excellent again and maybe not as good as last year, but still a high end RB one And I don't know how to quantify what we perceive to be a greater injury risk because of the heavy workload last year.
00:04:33
Speaker 1: So Eric, so base on your ranking. I'm assuming that this will be a pass for you. And I'm wondering if Fits's point about if he is healthy, it's hard to see him falling off. Do you see it as strictly hedging against injury and just the ability to stay healthy over the whole season, or do you think that even if he is healthy for the whole year, that there's still a chance for not just summer regression, because I think everybody thinks that, but maybe significant regression.
00:05:00
Speaker 3: I think that he's definitely due for significant amount of regression from a production standpoint the fact that he doesn't catch as many passes that we saw what he did in New York, A point that for a stat that I looked at that I thought was actually crazy when you look at what he did his rookie year. He actually scored more Fantasy points his rookie year than he did this past year. Because of the reception total said he could have put a monster numbers as in the passing game as a rookie. He did not do that in Philadelphia, and I don't think that's going to happen with the way that offense operates with Jalen Hurts as the quarterback, with all those other weapons between smith A. J. Brown and Dallas Goddard. So I think that the receptions matter a ton. It's not that he's not He's very capable of catching passes that they don't just use him that way in the offense. So that's that's part of it. Honestly, I was definitely sweating out the push push type of ruling. If that had been banned, I couldn't see, Okay, well, Matt Barkley's going to score twenty plus touchdowns like that would that could have been in his range of outcomes where Okay, well, Jalen Hurt's still not going to be locked and loaded for another fifteen rushing touchdown season. So I think those are concerns about Saikuon Barkley when it comes to if he is helping in on the field. But again, my main thesis of the bet is guys that are coming off this type of workload, it just doesn't work out for them. I can dive a little bit deeper into it. I know that it's kind of been thrown out. I don't know if you guys are interested.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely interested. We actually have I'm doing one of our Microsoft Challengers reads later in this episode talking about a player facing challenges and I'm actually gonna be talking about Saquon overcoming some of this history of players who have had this kind of workload. So I think you should share it.
00:06:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, So only two running backs have finished arey one following you after leaving the NFL and touches since twenty thirteen. Of the last twelve running backs at least four hundred or more touches the previous season, only one of those running backs was a top five Fantasy running back the next year. Running backs twenty seven or older in the NFL that led the NFL in touches. Five of them have done it. Zero top five finishes the following season. So for me, it's following a process. I trust. This process has worked out Last year with Chritian McCaffrey. I was making the same claims for Christian McCaffrey again, also a very special player, also in a great offensive environment, also an older running back, and it worked out, and he was a player that got injured and ended up not being worth the one number one overall pick. And the other thing too, is because you have to take Barkley inside the top five. I mean, if you take Barkley, now, I know that he's ranked below ECR, but you know I like Bjeon more than Barkley. I'd rather have Gibbs than if you take sake On Barkley. I means you can't draft Jamir Gibbs. I want to draft these running backs in their uber prime, along with some of these round one wide receivers CD Lamb. He's got Dak Prescott back. Last time we saw that combination. Ceedee Lamb was wide receiver one. Justin Jefferson, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. So I think that the opportunity cost for Barkley to get him in betting on that, I think even the highest Barkley stands would say he probably won't be as good as he was last year. So I just don't see the I don't want to say the upside. Obviously the upside is there, but I just don't like the case this year for Saquon Mark Lee versus some of the other guys at the top of the board.
00:08:07
Speaker 1: So, Fitz, before we move off of Saquon, let's concede, just for the sake of argument, that he should be RB two, which is where you have him specifically amongst his position. You know, I think it's a very valid stance to take. Obviously, do you at least see the case for maybe just going with a receiver in that spot like Seed Lamb. I was just putting mine together, my rankings together earlier today, and I had Lamb third, and like almost wanted to try and make the case for him to go higher because of what Ericson just said. The last time we saw those guys healthy together. So do you see maybe a reason even if you want to keep Saquon as RB two, just to go in a different position direction, like specifically wide receiver.
00:08:43
Speaker 2: If you're in the league where you have to start three receivers every week, absolutely, if you're in a receiver where you only have to start two, then I am taking Saquon over every wide receiver except for possibly jamar Chez.
00:08:56
Speaker 1: All right, so let's go now to a tight end. Actually, Trey McBride player I'm very excited about this year. He is ranked twenty second overall in ECR that is tight end two. Ericson Less are with you this time.
00:09:10
Speaker 3: So with McBride, I'm in line with consensus where I have him so as the tight end two as twenty second overall. But I don't think that he's someone that I'm going out of my way to draft necessarily. And that's not because of McBride the player. It's because from a strategic standpoint, I just like a lot of these late round tight end options. That's kind of the point for me with McBride is do I think he can pay off a top twenty four ADP. I think so, especially with hopefully he can finally find the end zone at some point and they're not just jamming targets to Marvin Harrison Junior in the end zone, as I know too well for losing so much money on Trey McBride anytime touchdowns last season, as listeners of the show are too familiar with. But I just think there's so many late run options that I like at cost Tucker Kraft, Evan Ingram, David and Joku. So for me, don't hate the player, Rick Bride, don't hate the ADP, but I like the tight end strategy of waiting at the position. So he's going to be a pass for me.
00:10:09
Speaker 1: So he's a pass even though he's more aligned with your rankings. Fits Are you also passing because your rankings have him a bit lower?
00:10:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am passing, and I'm not here to Ritt McBride. He's clearly one of the best tight ends in the league. Eleven one hundred and eleven catches last year, eleven hundred and forty six yards average two point one two yards per out run, which is really impressive. But I'm not spending a second round pick on Trey McBride, and he's not my tight end two. As you said, Worm, I've got Bowers tight end one, Kittle tight end two, and like McBride, Kittle is coming off in eleven hundred yard season. But Kittle averaged a freaky two point sixty two yards per rout run last season, and Kittle actually scores touchdowns, And look, I know McBride is due for some better touchdown lock wouldn't shock me if he had seven or eight this year. But we also have to consider the possibility that mcmar is never going to be a prolific touchdown score. He's had six touchdowns and forty nine NFL games and never scored more than four touchdowns in any of his college seasons at Colorado State. The other thing, like, if you think Marvin Harrison Junior is going of a better year two than he had in year one, and there are some things about his usage that were kind of funky last year, and hopefully the Cardinals are trying to address. I'm sure they know that they have to get this top five draft pick more integrated into the offense used optimally. And if you think Marvin Harrison Junior is going to have a much better year in year two than he had as a rookie, you'd think that would cut into Trey McBride's target load. So they're just a lot of things that worry me here, and I just don't think Trey McBride is worth a second round pick.
00:11:57
Speaker 1: I am very excited about Trey McBride this year. I feel like there are just enough players that I like better than him that I agree that I don't want to take him in the second, but I would be very happy to take him in with an early third pick if I'm getting an elite player in the first round, which I would presumably be getting if I'm having an early third because I'm picking early in the first, then just take a player I really like at whatever the other position is that I didn't take in the first round wide receiver, running back, and the McBride in the third. I'm really happy with that. So I think this is an appropriate ranking. You know it range at the very least, even if you'd be a couple spots lower for me. But I would much prefer to get him, like more of an early third than a late second, which might not be doable in a lot of cases. But I think there are there are just enough players in that back end of the second round range that I'm just really excited about that. I don't imagine I'll be taking McBride in many leagues where he's going in the second round. So I think I'm kind of making it a consensus opinion here to pass at twenty second overall on Trey McBride and some of that. Like Ericson said his position.
00:13:00
Speaker 3: Deebro's not gonna be happy about that.
00:13:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, Well, the deebro is really high on George Kittle too, Right, does he have McBride higher than Kittle or does he have.
00:13:08
Speaker 3: Them Bowers about behind the boat?
00:13:10
Speaker 1: I believe, Oh, okay, it's Bowers that is making we.
00:13:12
Speaker 3: Actually all all three of us have three different tight end. I'm the one that's the chalky. I'm the chalky guy. I'm just following the ECR between uh, Bowers, McBride, Kittle. But yeah, you guys are they will come with a hot heat.
00:13:25
Speaker 1: I'm looking here. I would definitely be along the line of eric said with Bowers with Bride Kittle, although I really quite like all three of this year.
00:13:31
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's clear that there is a top three tier, and that seems like it's that's consensus. Now, if you want to mix and match them, I think that that's okay, especially when you're playing the value game that Kittle's the cheapest, so it makes sense if hey, I want to get the elite tight end, just wait for George Kittle. I know we're without talking about him specifically, but like he's the guy in Bowers you have to look at when you're like weighing the options Matine well mc like, here's an example, like do you want Trey McBride and Jonathan Taylor or Brock Bowers and Breeze Hall, Like those are like combos you'd have to compare.
00:14:03
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, this month, if you want a chance to win a signed George Pickens Steelers jersey for free courtesy of our friends at Pristineauction dot com, all you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video, and that is it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. Get that now, vintage Stealers George Pickens jersey. Let's go to a receiver here for draft or past Mike Evans. He's thirty fourth overall in ECR. That is wide receiver sixteen fits. I'll start with you here.
00:14:40
Speaker 2: As my buddy Scott Pinowski Yahoo says, when has anyone ever drafted Mike Evans and regretted it? So I think wide receiver sixteen thirty fourth overall is pretty spot on. I think i've Evans wide receiver fifteen thirty fourth overall. I'm not that worried about age. Evans turns thirty two in August. I guess the one thing that makes me slightly nervous is that when Chris Godwin was bawling out early last season, Evans was actually below a thousand yard pace. He averaged fifty one point seven yards over his first six games, and he had seven or fewer targets in five of those six games. Then came that faithful game against the Ravens when Evan heard his hamstring. Godwin had that gruesome ankle injury. When Evans came back in week twelve and there was no Godwin around, Evans averaged six point nine catches and ninety five point six yards a game over his last seven games. So I just I wonder if it might be a struggle for Evans to give us a twelfth straight thousand yard season with Godwin back from the injury and now first rounder of mechag Buka possibly poaching some targets, but I don't know. I would still be more inclined to bet the over on a thousand yards than the under for Mike Evans, and good chance he gives us double digit touchdowns for what the fifth fifth season out of six. Like, the guy's pretty bankable.
00:16:04
Speaker 1: I know that Hall of Famers kind of play by a different set of rules, and yeah, so I do think Mike Evans is a Hall of Famer, But like we've seen it so many times that when it goes, it does go fast, and you know, guy into his thirties. I'm a little concerned to Erickson about just a new play caller, although Tampa has done a really good job of consistently getting quality new offensive coordinators in there as their guys get hired away, so maybe they've done it again. But you know, it is in the back of my mind that it's now, you know, a new play caller there. So Mike Evans for you again, thirty fourth overall wide receiver sixteen. How does that look to you?
00:16:38
Speaker 3: I just think he's a really solid fantasy wide receiver too. I think that's what he's going to be. I don't think that he's going to be a fantasy locked in number one, a top twelve guy. But when the Buccaneers meet in training camp and they go over their goals, number one is it's when the division number two to Mike Evans a thousand yards. It's just on everybody's narrative that they want to get this guy his amount of touch in the amount of yards so he can continue this endless or his his streak, his historic streak. So I understand that, yes, his production did fall off or he was not as great during the beginning season with Godwin, but it was still pretty good. It was around that wide receiver to production under twelve fantasy points per game. And yes, Evans has moments where he missed his games with his hamstring injury or he just has these random three target games against it. Also, you have to remember Marshall Latimore is gone from the division, so that's a big win for these Saints matchups with Mike Evans, so we don't have to fade Mike Evans anymore on these weekly Marshall Lattimore whatever matchup they're on now. So I think that Evans is a great pick in this round, that he's pretty safe. I get the age concerned, but I mean he was still really efficient last year. I think he posted career high or he did post career high in yards per route run. So I don't think that there's nothing about his game that's saying, hey, this guy's clearly hit a cliff a Miika Buka. Yeah, we're excited about he's still a rookie wide receiver. Mike Evans has shown he can news with anyone else in his office as good as Chris Godwin has been at times. Mike, if it is stilver produced and when push comes to shove, you know, Evans can drop thirty points at any point in any game where he can win you a week. So even though he has a couple of duds here and there, I think the weekly upside he can deliver, especially with Baker Mayfield, is Buccaneers defense still has a lot of holes. I think Mike Evans is solid where he's going.
00:18:21
Speaker 1: Let's go to Cuba Hubbard here. This is something that we just mentioned Deebra earlier. Debro was tweeting earlier today that he is moving Chuba Hubbard down in his rankings. Erickson, do you agree with Debro that Hubbard is currently too high forty six overall RB eighteen or would you go against Debra.
00:18:38
Speaker 3: Debra must have been looking at my machichi figuring out that I'm fading Cheuba Hubbard. Yes, I am lower on Chewba Hubbard than the consensus. I think that it's really not a slight on him either. I think that he was really great last year, but I also think that Rico Daddle was really great last year. Dabble had over thirteen hundred total yards, two or seventy four touches, and the amount of ballume that he saw last year was the most added to any other backfield this season. So he was averaging around seventeen touches per game compared Toubahubbard, who was around nineteen touches per game. So I think Ricou Dawell is a very capable running back. He showed that by winning out the running back job in Dallas, despite the coaches being very much against giving him a role. It took forever for him. He had a breakout game against Pittsburgh Steelers early in the season Week five, and then the immediately go back to a committee, so he forced the coach's hand and he did all of this basically without Dak Prescott as the Dallas Cowboys quarterback. He rushed for over a thousand yards last year when he was playing with backup quarterbacks in the Dallas Cowboys offense. So I think that we're going to see more of a one A one B situation between Cheeba Hubbard and Rico Dwell because I think both guys are very gamble running backs. But we also saw Hubbard breakdown at the end of last year, and the minute that Jonathan Brooks, the rookie, when he came back healthy, he immediately took on a sizeable role in the offense for the one game he was healthy, took away targets from Chuba Hubbard. So I think that Dowbell showed last year that he deserves touches and opportunities. I think he's going to get them, and it's going to be a more of a one A one B. And I don't think Harver's going to get near the amount of work that he saw last year, and for those reasons, I'm going to be lower on him. I think I'd rather just have Dowbell at his price compared Toubahabbard at his price.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: I think I'm about even with where Hubbard is in terms of ECR. I don't feel like he's too high or too low. Part of it is just some of the players around him. I have a hard time kind of moving some of them ahead of him or below him. Erickson obviously thinks this is too high fits What do you think? Forty sixth overall RB eighteen.
00:20:36
Speaker 2: I think Erickson is never going to have any sort of career as an investigator because he is overlooking the principal rule, follow the money. The Panthers told us how they feel about their running back situation with the contracts that handed out. They gave Chewba Hubbard a four year, thirty three million dollars deal with about sixteen and a half million guaranteed. Rico Dowdell got a one year deal two point seventy five million. So Hubbard's going to be the guy to start the season. And it's possible Cuba Hubbard could stank and Rico Dowell could be really good and they change horses at some point, But no reason to think Hubbard's gonna stink. He was really good last year. Four point eight yards per carry, ranked eighth in yards after contact per attempt among running backs with at least one hundred carries. Cuba was eleventh among running backs and miss tackles forced caught forty three passes RB twelve, and fantasy points per game and half point PPR so man even with the signing of Dowdell and the drafting of Trevor Etn, I'm not that worried about Cuba's job security, and there's a reason to be optimistic about the trajectory the Carolina offense, which was pretty good down the stretch in the first year with Dave Canalis's head coach, and Carolina has got a good offensive line. PFF had the Panthers ranked seventh and run blocking grade last season, So I'm totally on board with Hubbard at that price.
00:21:59
Speaker 1: Erickson, you said, unless I'm misremembering or misshard, you that you thought you thought it could be a one to a one B situation. What kind of touch breakdown is that for you? Is that like fifty five forty five, Is it close to fifty to fifty or do you think it could be more like sixty forty or more disparity.
00:22:17
Speaker 3: Fifteen ten, whatever, whatever, that would accumulate to be so I can't do I can't do the math. You can't put me on the spot like this. So for every fifteen.
00:22:25
Speaker 1: Touches you, yeah, that would be sixty four Okay.
00:22:28
Speaker 3: Sixty forty. Yeah, that's that's what I think is realistic. I think doubtll. I mean, Fitz did a great job of listing off, like how good Hubbard was last year. I want to give him his credit, but both of these guys rushed for one thousand yards last year. Both the maverage over forore four point six yards for carry. Both of them were top twenty four running backs by PFF. They were both really good. So I just think that the coaching staff recognizes that Dwell is a very capable running back and to keep Hubbard healthy now that they've invested in him, maybe they don't want to run him into the ground because we paid this guy, so let's keep it fresh. And I think last year they tried to do it at times, but everybody kept getting injured. Jarathan Brooks injured, Miles Sanders injured. So I think that for those reasons, again, I think that that was the better value where he's going because I think that he could see a decent amount of work in his backfield, and looking at other running backs that go in this range, I like James Connor more than Choba Hubbard. He goes in a very similar range to Chewba Hubbard, and I think that he has a bigger gap on the RB one role in Arizona versus Chewba Hubbard compared to Rico. Doubt because trade Benson again, super exciting prospect, but I think Benson really needs an injury to get unlocked in Arizona, whereas Preco Dawdle. I don't think that he's based solely on an injury happening now. Obviously, if an injury happens, I think the TV really high end handcuffed at worst, but I think that he might be able to be a running back kind of or at RB two with benefits or something along those lines.
00:23:52
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00:25:09
Speaker 1: All right, guys, let's shift into more of the mid round section here. We'll start with Jamison Williams. He's fifty third overall wide receiver twenty six. A lot of hype coming from Detroit about him as a major breakout potential this year. Fits a start with you this time.
00:25:25
Speaker 2: I'm going to pass on him at wide receiver twenty six and as a fifth round pick at fifty three overall a little too rich for me. I've him ranked wide receiver thirty one. JMO is a really talented dude with a lot of big play potential, but it's going to be kind of a bumpy ride because he is not a high volume guy. He averaged six point one targets a game last year. Then factor in the departure of Ben Johnson along with the likelihood that Jared Goff's career high touchdown rate from last year comes down, and you know, Gough is maybe closer to thirty touchdown passes in the thirty seven he had last year. So I just I'm not quite on board with Jamison at that price. I like him better in Best Ball than in managed leagues. You know, if you can get him as your wide receiver three or something, I'm okay with that. But I don't know, this just seems a bit too rich, Eerxon.
00:26:19
Speaker 1: I want to hear what you think about Jameson Williams at fifty third overall wide receiver twenty six. But I'm also curious if you agree with fits that you'd rather have him in Best Ball as opposed to redraft or are you just interested, regardless.
00:26:31
Speaker 3: Interested regardless in James Sibiliams. So I'm going to be drafting him. I just think that this is the year that it's going to be all gas, you know, breaks for Jamison. The fact that they're talking about him as a breakout candidate after what he did last year where I wasn't high up on Jamison. I was kind of fed up the suspensions and the injury a prospect I was really high on coming out of Alabama and just never lived up to the draft capital. We finally did that last year, and that was despite him getting suspended again for doing for doing non football related activities. So I think with Williams, he's just a really exciting player week ten on where he was the wide receiver ten and fantasy points per game, we saw him start to really eat into I'm on Ross Saint Brown's target share. Weeks go through eighteen, they had a very similar target share. Now it's still in favor of the Lion slought receiver because of an eighteen target game that he had in week fifteen, But if you kind of remove that one outlier game from the sample, it's pretty flat across the board between JMO, Samuel Porda and I'm on Rossaint Brown. Super explosive third NIFL yards catch per reception, and I do agree with Fitz where if Jared Goff is taking a step back and he kind of finishes more as a middle in quarterback. I know, like I'm specifically not high on Golf in fantasy because I'm concerned about the lack of rushing and some pending touchdown regression coming for him. But if a player can make up for that, it's by their own ability, and we've seen Jameson make plays on his own regardless of the quarterback play. So he scored fifteen career touchdowns, nine of them been in plays of forty or more yards. So this guy is just an explosive playmaker. If anything, when I think about how exciting me is, it reminds me a lot of the to michell A season that was Will Fuller, where you just see this guy play and he just has these insane weeks, but then he gets injured and you're just pulling your hair out. You absolutely love the player, but he's so frustrating. And that's been the Jamison experience the first three seasons of his NFL career. Just super high highs, especially last year, but really low lows. But I think this year again, away from Ben Johnson, there's an opportunity. I think that a new offensive coordinator comes in and puts his wrinkle on this offense, and maybe that means, hey, we're gonna feature Jameson Williams more. We're gonna give him more layup, We're gonna get him in space because we need to help Jared Goff a little bit more because of the offensive line concerns. You know, the center retired, So putting it into your most expulsive playmaker's hands, that's why I'm still have confident in guys like Jamo and Jamier Gibbs. And why again my concerns with Jared Goff or more related to aman Rossaint Brown. Where was he more favoring from the system, from the slot, gobbling all the volume? What if the volume evens out? You know, James Wims is a former first round pick. He because a twelfth overall pick in the NFL draft. This guy is super talented. So I want to make the bet in round five on a guy taking a major leap and I think that he's a dark horse to be a top twelve wide receiver.
00:29:17
Speaker 2: Ericson can't ever be an investigator and he can't be a salesman because he's trying to make a case for Jamison Williams and he's thrown will Fuller's name around.
00:29:25
Speaker 3: Remember the will Force start with DeAndre Hopkins was gone for that offense?
00:29:28
Speaker 2: Oh wow, Spectach it was.
00:29:30
Speaker 3: It was amazing fits.
00:29:34
Speaker 1: Unlike a lot of the other players were talking about today, there's a lot of names on here that are maybe they would fall under the umbrella of like a boring, veteran type of pick. Jameson Williams is the up and comer, like high upside. It's fun to imagine the possibilities when you make a pick like that when you pass on him, given your ranking fits, do you feel any fomo like this is a pass that could really burn me Because some of the other names on this list, it feels like it's more of a you know, maybe you value the floor instead of the ceiling, stuff like that. This is one where the ceiling is fun to think about.
00:30:05
Speaker 2: It is, and you know, I think the scenario that could make you regret it would be like if anything happened to a'm and Ross Saint Brown, who's been really durable throughout his career, but like, obviously they would endeavor to get the ball into Jamo's hands a whole lot more if a'man Ross Saint Brown ever missed time.
00:30:23
Speaker 1: Jameson Williams could be anything. He could even be will Fuller.
00:30:26
Speaker 3: We'll see who not suspended able Fuller.
00:30:31
Speaker 1: Let's go to a quarterback here in the mid round. Patrick Mahomes obviously considered by pretty much everybody to be the best quarterback in football, but not the best quarterback in fantasy football. He's QB seven in ECR sixtieth. Overall, this has been a multi year stretch of him being disappointment in a disappointment in fantasy relative to this type of quarterback he is in real life ericson I'll start with you on this one. Are you drafting or passing on Patrick Mahomes at sixtieth overall?
00:30:59
Speaker 3: So similar to the Trey McBride conversation, I think that he's fine where he is in the quarterback rankings. I'm actually higher on ECR than him, have QB six, but looking at the twenty twenty five quarterback board, I'm going on a round quarterback. There are so many guys entering their second season that off a rushing upside that go outside the top one hundred picks. That's the value that I want to play here. I think that with Mahomes specifically, he's probably a player i'd be interested in super flex where he is going to fall a little bit more compared to past years where he's basically been a top five super flex selection. So in those scenarios, I want to say that I'm in on Patrick Mahomes because I think that to your point where and you just talked about how he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's not scoring fantasy points. Eventually, that's that's not gonna be the case. Eventually, the Chiefs are going to say, you know what, we're sick of winning all these games. We just want to have fun again. They went for the three p last year. It didn't work out. They were trying to win all these close games, playing really really close to the best. No, like, we're gonna go out and have them. We're gonna have my home sling it. That's why they drafted Xavier Worthies so I could throw the ball down again. Screw the two I safeties, don't care. They're going to have more fun. And it reminds me a little bit about the Patriots dynasty, where there were some seasons where Tom Brady wasn't really there statistically. Everyone still knew he was a top tier quarterback. No one it would suggest, oh, he's really fallen off his game, but the numbers weren't there as they were kind of going through, all right, what's our offensive identity. And we've seen the last couple of years with Mahomes or like you said, he's been down in the last two seasons. I just think eventually it's going to increase and Chase were second and pass right over expectation. They love to throw the ball, love to throw the ball. In the red zone. Are we expecting Pacheco to score fifteen rushing touchdowns this season? I don't think so. And if Rashie Rice, if you ever worthy or healthy, I think we could see Mahomes go back to averaging over twenty fantasy points per game from Week eight onward. Last year, he was averaging twenty one points per game once we saw a worthy kind of hit his stride. So again, strategically, I want to go late run quarterbacks, so I won't be drafting necessarily a ton of Mahomes, but especially in super flex, where I could see him going in the end of round one, maybe even round because there are concerns where you could see some of the top running backs and receivers go before him. That's where I'm gonna be circling him on draft boards.
00:33:07
Speaker 1: Fitz, I wonder if you have a similar approach to Erickson here, because it looks like based on your rankings, you are higher than consensus amongst quarterbacks, but lower than consensus on the overall rankings on Patrick Mahomes.
00:33:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've got well, let's see, I've got Mahomes QB six and fifty ninth overall. So I think I am maybe a little bit above consensus on him.
00:33:28
Speaker 3: Overall.
00:33:30
Speaker 2: I'm sort of with Ericson in that I kind of wouldn't wait on quarterback two and I think, you know, I'll be fighting Ericson for Drake may and drafts we're in together. Justin Fields is another favorite target. But there is an upside case to be made for Mahomes, especially now that he's getting drafted. Behind the big five at quarterback Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and sometimes behind Baker Mayfield. Mahomes is now pretty flush at wide receivers with Rashid Rice healthy again, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown rookie Jalen Royals, and Travis Kelsey is still kicking. So I just I wonder if maybe we'll see more verticality in the Chiefs passing game. Mahomes has averaged under seven intended air yards per pass in each of the last two years. He averaged a career low six point two intended air yards per throw last season. He was at seven point two in twenty twenty two. He was over eight in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty like not coincidentally, Mahomes averaged a career low two hundred and forty five point five passing yards per game last season. He's also pretty low touchdown rates in each of the last two years four point five percent both seasons. Before twenty twenty three, mahomes seasonal touchdown rates range from five point four percent to eight point six percent. So Mahomes could conceivably get a bounce in some of these categories. Now that it looks like the wide receiver position isn't going to be a liability the Chiefs.
00:35:02
Speaker 1: I find myself approaching quarterback position like I am not saying that I will definitely go late round no matter what, because I am actually kind of interested in getting one of Lamar, Josh Allen or Jaden Daniels. But if I don't get one of those kind of elite top three or four, there is like no chance I will be drafting the sixth or seventh quarterback off the board this season because if I'm not getting an elite guy, I want to take the thirteenth or fourteenth quarterback off the board because I don't see a wide gap between QB seven and QB fourteen this season. I think it's a massive tier between the elite and the guys that you really don't want. I think the guys that you're going to be excited about and paint a picture of upside from is like twelve names deep. So I will not be taken the first of that group, where Mahomes tends to be at the top of that range. So I anticipate having very little Mahomes this year. I think I will either get a true stud early or be waiting to go later. Eric said, I know you said you're doing late round. Do you have any interesting kind of that elite three? By the way, before we move off this.
00:36:02
Speaker 3: I think for me, not really. I just like the late round quarterbacks has always kind of been my strategy. And maybe that's to my detriment that I haven't been drafting the more of these elite mobile quarterbacks. But last year I was with the I mean, I think a lot of us were straft Jane Daniels. I don't need Lamar, I don't need josh Awen, just need Jane Daniels. And I just see so many guys with a potential to be last year's Jane Daniels. Not gonna say rookies, but second year, quarterbacks up and coming better systems that rush. Caleb Williams and Drake May are the top two names. I mean, guys like a bo Nix, like Kyler Murray. You see so many players that offer rushing juice that can also you know, we're expecting improvement as passers. So yeah, I think for me it's still like late round.
00:36:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that is true, and we all as a show were very high in Jane Daniels, but I do feel like a lot of yours there are quarterbacks that don't hit. I mean even last year. I was also high in Caleb Williams as a rookie, and that really backfired even though you know, so I hte one for two out of those two. But you can wait and then you are left very behind at a position that scores the most points.
00:37:12
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's important to recognize that when you are approaching with a late round quarterback. I know, in the one league that I one of my bigger leagues that I won last year, you know, the first quarterback GO drafted was Anthony Richardson. He was horrible, but you know why, I also drafted Jane Daniels, So it didn't it didn't matter that I had wasted that six round pick, kind of similar to where Mahomes is going, because I ended up going the late round quarterback. So I do think go because I've seen with Mahomes in some of these best fall drafts where he falls because there are people that are kind of fed up with the last two years and the two I safety Mahomes is not fun anymore, blah blah blah, and he starts to fall. And that's why I pointed out super flex formats where that's really where I'm kind of interested to see where he goes, because I think you're going to start to see, like fits a Living too, top five quarterbacks, bang bang bang bang, and then you can see, Okay, here goes Chase, and there goes b John and maybe Barkley and then maybe I Mahomes kind of trickle down to the end of round one or beginning of round two, where I don't care remember the last time he ever went that late in a super flex draft.
00:38:09
Speaker 1: Welcome now this week's chasing challenges brought to you by MICROSOFTS. Just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible, business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities. Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance that help you make an impact with safe secure AI solutions. Players and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment, we spotlight athletes or teams that are currently undergoing a challenge, what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge you are facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say bring it on. This week, we're discussing the challenges faced by Saquon Barkley, coming off at nearly five hundred touches in a season. It might sound weird to highlight Saquon in a section about challenges, given that he is coming off a league winning season and plays behind the best offensive line in football, but there is a long history of high touch running backs falling off the next and nobody had more touches than Saquon three hundred and seventy eight combined carries and catches in the regular season, another one hundred and four in the playoffs during the Eagles Super Bowl run. Barkley ended up with over four hundred and eighty touches in the twenty twenty four season. He's got a top three consensus ranking right now. So fantasy managers need a healthy Saquon Barkley this year, But he wouldn't be the first running back with this kind of workload to miss some time the following season. And that concern doesn't even account for any possible regression from the Eagles offense as a whole surrounding Barkley or the not so fun Madden Cursey faces as well. Saquon Barkley is the type of player every fantasy manager loves having on their roster, but that doesn't mean he is without question marks and challenges he's facing in twenty twenty five. That's it for this week's Chasing challenges. Remember Microsoft's AI solutions empower you to take bold steps that make informed decisions, sparking new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft dot com slash challengers to learn more. All right, let's go to Brian Robinson fits starting with you here are drafting or passing seventy seventh overall, RB thirty.
00:40:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess drafting, because that's exactly where I have him ranked RB thirty seventy seven overall. Yeah. And I can make the analysis pretty short here, solid if on spectacular early down back for an ascendate offense with a pretty good offensive line. I think it's the right price.
00:40:26
Speaker 1: Ericson keeping it short and simple too.
00:40:28
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know if I can follow up this his ringing endorsement for Brian Robinson, but I kind of feel the same way. And hey, like carbon Copy Fantasy RB two got some touchdown upside that just kind of feels like Brian Robinson. He's fine. If you need a RB two RB three with some touchdown equity, that's your guy. I will point out, though, I think where I'm going to project projecting him, I'm going into my oracle phase here where Brian Robinson is going to be a guy we talk about on the trade show if we're on it together this year, as a guy we're going to sell high. Because you look at the Commander schedule Giants Week one, Packers, Raiders, Falcons, pretty favorable schedule for a early down running back. Commander's offense starts out winning a lot of these games. But we kind of know who Brian Robinson is. I don't think that he's going to a send as an elite talent, so I think that if he runs hot with touchdowns. He saw a lot of the red zone usage for the Commanders last year. I pulled this from Deep ro ten games at least a forty percent snap rate, Robinson had the fourth most carries inside the ten yard line, So Scott touched on upside. I think he's going to cash in early on in the season. They could probably sell him a lot for them more what he's probably worth.
00:41:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, fits with Robinson. Is it like for somebody on this show. It feels weird to say this, but it feels like he the range of outcomes barring injury is not very wide for him. It's very hard for me to paint a picture that he finishes as a league winner who's like RB seven at the end of the season. But it's also hard for me to imagine, barring injury, that he too much lower than where he's ranked. It feels like this is just kind of where he is, and maybe that's a good thing in terms of finding value, because people on draft day your fancy managers like the big exciting thing. It's harder to paint that picture with him, but it feels like more of a sure thing.
00:42:15
Speaker 2: Right because Austin Eckler is going to get some of the work there, He's going to get a lot of the snaps, and if Factler gets hurt, it's not just going to be all Robinson. It's going to be some other tag team partner for Robinson. And you know, the only threat. I know some people like Jacry krossky Merritt, but he was what a seventh rounder, so that would be pretty far fetched for him to come in and poach Brian Robinson's job. Not that it couldn't happen, but so yeah, I agree with you. It's a pretty narrow range of possible outcomes, or so it seems.
00:42:47
Speaker 1: Let's go to I think probably the oldest name on this list. I didn't actually check, but I can't imagine anybody's older Travis Kelcey as a mid round pick here, obviously a guy who's been in the early rounds many, many times over his career. He's tight end seven eighty third overall. Ericson are you drafting or passing on Kelsey?
00:43:03
Speaker 3: Here, I am not drafting Travis Kelcey. Here. We saw last year he hit the age cliff, and I know that the offseason reports have been pretty positive for Kelsey. Samon feels good. He didn't really think that much about retiring. He always knew he was gonna come back. But just the way that things ended last year was just so bad. Me. He had that one big catch and run in the Houston playoff game and everyone was convinced, myself included wrongly, that oh he's back, like Travis Kelcey, playoff mode is back. And then he just was a non factor in the Chief's other two postseason games. I think for him it's just he's touchdown or bust. He still has a really good red zone role in the Chiefs offense. He was number one in terms of red zone targets last year from mahomes. But how does that change with Rashie Rice and Xader Worthy? You know, taking steps forward if Rice is healthy and if Worthy takes a step forward in year two, what about markis Brown and coming back? Just say they have healthy receivers. So I get seeing Kelsey's ninety seven catches last year and thinking, oh man, this guy is a screaming value. But I don't think that he and Rice necessarily overlap to benefit each other. I think it's really one guy or the other because you just look at the first three games Kelsey had. Now we're near the amount of volume he saw without Rice in the lineup, So for me, it's just too early. Similar of he has a Mark Andrews season from last year where he scores some touchdowns. His final numbers don't look that bad. But the ride that you're on with Travis Kelcey in twenty twenty five, if it's anything like Mark and Andrews last year, which I was on way too much. It was not fun and I don't want to go on it again.
00:44:37
Speaker 1: Do you think Kelsey ends up as like one, just like every other tight end essentially that is just tight end or touchdown or bust each week.
00:44:46
Speaker 3: I do. I think that's kind of what his skill set is. I mean, he's a diminishing skill set and he's thirty five years old. Yes, he can catch touchdowns, but there's a lot of tight ends that can touch touches it and even in his area. Again, I talked about some of these late round tight ends, David and Joku goes after Travis Kels Gavin jo who could lead his team in target David Joke would see over one hundred targets in the Browns offense, and he's basically free where Travis Kelcey goes several rounds ahead. So I'd rather have a joke who in some of the other late round Titans I've talked about already.
00:45:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, I asked that because even if you view him in that light, even in the last two years prior to you know, possibly falling off the age cliff, he's only had eight combined touchdowns, Like like twenty twenty three he only had five receiving touchdowns and then last year obviously just three. So if he is touchdown or bust, like if Mark Andrews is touched down our bust, we know he's still getting touchdowns at the very least, even if he's not doing anything else because he's a favorite target there. I don't even know if that's the way the Chiefs are really using Kelsey at this point in his career. Fits again. Eighty third overall tight end, seven draft pass I'm drafting.
00:45:44
Speaker 2: I think he's a value and like the dude's still in ninety seven catches last year and he was held out in.
00:45:50
Speaker 3: Week but Rice wasn't playing. That's the only thing. How much does that matter if Rice is back? I got to cut. I agree, he's kind of like I don't know.
00:45:59
Speaker 2: Like my my over under for Kelsey on receptions is probably closer to seventy five than up in triple digits. So like, I'm not expecting a vintage Travis Kelce season. And yeah, you have to acknowledge that he was way down last year in the efficiency stats yards per catch, arts per target, yards per outrun. But like he had really bad touchdown luck, as you said Ericson, Like he led the team in red zone targets twenty five nine targets from the ten yard lineter closer only three touchdowns. I mean that suggests he had some touchdown misfortune last year, So we could get a bounce there. And yeah, like I know, if the receivers stay healthy, because the Chiefs now look pretty good at wide receiver, like that could cut into Kelsey's target share. But like, I still can't understand why TJ. Hockinson is being drafted ahead of Travis Kelce. Like I still think there's much more reception in yardage upside for Kelsey than Hockinson. So man, like, if you want to let Travis Kelcey go late, Granted I'm not really looking to draft him much above this ADP of eighty three overall, but like you give me him around there, like I'm I'm taking.
00:47:11
Speaker 1: Him ericson you mentioned in DJOKU. Obviously, Evan Ingram is somebody that you know, we've talked about a lot in these shows this offseason. There's not a ton of names after him that I'm feeling that great about, though, Like you know, you start to get into a couple of names past Travis Kelcey and the two names that you mentioned, it's like Tucker Craft, Dalton Kincaid, Dallas Goddter, Like yeah, Like I can kind of squint my eyes and see a case for guys like Craft and Kincaid, but it's not like I'm drafting them feeling like that drastically different about my tight end position than I would be Travis Kelcey.
00:47:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that this is kind of the weird tier because the middle range of tight ends, traditionally, the you know, tight end seven to tight end twelve, it's usually a bad just range to be drafting tight ends, and because it's clear that we talked about in the beginning of the show, where there's a clear top three that we all feel pretty good about. We all have different orders, but it's like, do we have these top three guys and it's a tear drop and just being the next guy in that tier, it's just hard for those guys to pay off because it's not like Sam Mport's fault that he's tight end for and ECR or in ADP, but just that guy in particular, Oh, you're the number one not elite tight end, Like that's not a player that oh I want to draft the first non elite tight end Like that doesn't sound like a good bet to make. So that's the other thing to a lot of the Titans in this range where Kelsey's going, where Mark Andrews is going, these guys tend to finish closer to the guys going behind them than the guys going in front of them. So can Kelsey because this is where Kelsey was last year? Right, he was tightened six overall tight end seven points per game. So if we're getting Kelsey, have we got to end last year? Okay? Then I get fits his argument a little bit more where you're not drafting them in the second round wherever he was last year, so you're getting value in that perspective. But I think maybe I'm just kind of shooting for like maybe a Rock Bowers or John whi Smith type of tight end in the late rounds and I don't think that's Kelsey unless you catches like fifteen touchdowns. But like you point out, which I wasn't really aware of, that really hasn't been a major touchdown score, which is kind of interesting.
00:49:12
Speaker 1: I think my takeaway is less that I want to wait till late round and more that I want to get one of those first three guys.
00:49:18
Speaker 3: We need to re record and say training Bride draft you guys.
00:49:22
Speaker 1: Listen, I said, I said I would love McBride early third, So you know, I I don't know that you get in there. Maybe this makes me more inclined to take him in the late second just to make sure I get him. But yeah, I'm I'm not really excited about any of these tight ends up.
00:49:38
Speaker 3: If you want, for one thing, so would you take would you rather wait for for Kelsey or draft Kittle where his ADP is like, what would you prefer doing?
00:49:48
Speaker 2: Kittle is third round early third.
00:49:51
Speaker 3: Third, third, fourth, yeah, third, fourth.
00:49:53
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean I would rather of Kittle.
00:49:57
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the late round. Guys, we can a little bit faster here because obviously the lady you get it. It kind of just gets into more like personal preference, but that is what we were highlighting, your guys' personal preference. Here are we drafting or passing on Travis Etn ericson a guy who you were very excited about a year ago. He's now one hundred and fourth overall, which is reflective of the year he had and RB thirty five drafter pass this season.
00:50:19
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be drafting him at this at this price because this is I think his floor. This is what he finished as last year when he was terrible. He was RB thirty six last year going as the RB thirty five ECR ADP, and all indications right now have then that the skin new coaching staff is more than happy to have him as their potential RB one. I think they're still figuring out who they want to be their lead running back, but I think right now Travis Etn is in the driver's seat. You know, Tank Bigsby is dealt with fumble problems in the past. He also is not a established pass catcher, despite his mini breakout last year that was really based on a lot of big rushes and give credit to him, like he did break off a lot of big runs last season, but still not trusted as a receiver out of the backfield. And that's where Travis Etn has been used, especially with Trevor Moore. It's not only with Jacksonville, but also dating back to their days with Clemson. So if Trevor Lawrence has say in this offense, I think that he's going to go to bat for his guy, Travis Etn. I think that means he's going to have a role on this team. And I'm optimistic about this offense overall. With Liam Cohen and RB thirty five. I think that he's just he's just really cheap, and I think that there's a clear upside case where Etn has been a top five fantasy running back before. Now I don't think that that's really like what we could see for me because I don't think they're going to go back to him as a bell cow. I think he's shown that he can't really handle that type of workload. But can he be more efficient not banged up in an improved offense. I think so. So I like Etn here probably thirty five.
00:51:37
Speaker 1: Fit's unless you've changed your ranking since we put this outline together. I think this is the player that you guys have the widest gap in terms of how you are ranking them on. And you appear to be much lower, much much lower than ericson on Travis Etn.
00:51:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm lower, but I'm also sort of torn on Etn. Like on the one hand, Travis Etn is going into the final year of his contract. The Jaguars drafted base too, and they still have Tank. It would be pretty easy for the Jaguars to just fade out Etn and this year. And Etn was objectively bad last year three point seven yards per carry only for seventeen missed tackles all season. In terms of rushing yards over expected per carry, that's the next gen stats stat, Etn was underwater minus zero point two eight rushing yards over expected per carry. He was getting less than expected when he carried the ball, But then again, Etn missed two games with a hamstring injury last year, may have played some games at less than one hundred percent. We are talking about a twenty six year old running back who had twelve touchdowns and almost fifteen hundred yards from scrimmage two years ago. So I don't think I don't think he's a bad buy at this price by any means, Like he does have plausible upside, and if he's not getting enough touches early in the season, you can just drop him, Like having a ninth rounder failed to pan out is not going to crush you fits.
00:52:57
Speaker 1: Let's sick with you for the next player. Javonte Williams one hundred twelfth overall RB thirty seven, So just a few spots behind Eatn.
00:53:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm a little lower than this with Javonte and my rankings, but I'm not totally opposed to taking this ride again. Javante said recently that he's starting to feel like his old self after he had that major knee injury in twenty twenty two where he tore his ACL and LCL. He was so impressive as a rookie back in twenty twenty one, but he was sharing work with Melvin Gordon. Javante averaged almost three point five yards after contact per carry as a rookie, forced a lot of mistackles had forty three catches, but then Javonte after the injury just has not been the same guy. Not surprising given the severity the injury. So did have a career high fifty two catches last year, but for only three hundred and forty six yards no touchdowns. Didn't have a one hundred yard rushing game all season. Is season high was eighty eight yards against a really bad Saints run defense. He had two of his four touchdowns in that game. All other games besides that game against the Saints, Chavante averaged six point seven half point PPR Fantasy points per game, but only twenty five. He's competing with Miles Sanders and two rookies, Jayden Blue and Phil Maffa. And I know Jayde Blue is fast, but the twenty twenty one version of Javonte Williams is better than Jayden Blue. So it's not inconceivable that Javonte takes the lead RB role for the Cowboys and runs with it.
00:54:26
Speaker 1: He's also a lot better than this version of Miles Sanders. I like to me, Jontay Williams will definitely be ranked inside my top one hundred, and he will definitely be ranked inside my top thirty six running backs. And it's not even about like, oh, it's been long enough removed from the injury, and now I think he's getting back to this stud that he was, you know, or appeared to be becoming as a rookie. It's just the opportunity is here in what I think will be a good offense. Now that again, Dak Prescott, Seedee Lamb, George Pickens, this is an offense that I think is going to score touchdowns. And like, if you Thinkante Williams has washed, like, I will show you Miles Sanders and show you what washed it really looks like. And then you're talking about a fifth round rookie whose skill set doesn't even appear to be the type that would detract too much from Javante. Like, I just don't see any world where a healthy Gavante Williams this season finishes outside the top like thirty three, thirty two even running backs, just based on the opportunity to score touchdowns alone, I just don't see a path there barring injury.
00:55:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, here's the thing where the three of us are degenerates, We're going to be in like a dozen or more redraft leagues, and my stance is that I want to get some exposure to Javante. But if you're only in one or two leagues, like a lot of our viewers and listeners like, I don't know, Like I guess I'm okay with the current asking price on Javante. I'd probably want to get a little bit of a deal if I'm only drafting in one or two leagues.
00:55:49
Speaker 1: Ericson, I kind of you Javante similarly to a guy that we liked a lot last year in JK. Dobbins, where has this injury history? He's going really late, but there's such a clear path to opportunity. There's nobody else in the offense that it feels like it's gonna be a significant challenge, and it's an offense that we think is gonna be good enough to score touchdowns. I see a lot of similarities there. Where do you have Dravonte Williams again one hundred and twelfth overall in ECR RB thirty seven?
00:56:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him in this range, So he's very much draftable here. And you want to see washed, I can show you my laundry where you're really interested, just just was ready to go right ex to Miles.
00:56:23
Speaker 1: Sanders, you want to see cooked, let me show you my dinner.
00:56:27
Speaker 3: We can be here all day, we're run out of time. I mean, I agree with mostly with everything that fits and kind of what you outlined. I think in particular builds, it makes sense to understand what Javonte can offer you. I don't think that he's going to be a fantasy RB one. Even with Dobbins last year, we kind of saw it fizzle out as the season progressive. You just couldn't handle taking on that worklok because of the history of his injuries. Javonte is a little bit different really just one devastating injury. But they're gonna trust him in pass pro. He's gonna catch jump off passes from Dak Prescott. So I think that he's fine. And with the amount of running backs that you're going to draft before Javonte that are rookie running backs that may not have great week one roles. For example, Caleb Johnson, right, I love Cale Johnson, I cannot guarantee what his role is going to be week one. You're probably not gonna be able to start in week one, but you know you can probably start week one when you draft him one hundred twelve overall. Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams, although he's placing the Eagles, so maybe I don't want to start him, but you get the thesis of the play where you have some of these veteran guys kind of you start them to open the year, kind of like what chu U Hubbard was last year, right, so cheap, super late because oh we're all afraid about the rookie taking over. I think that Javonte can be a bridge to some of these running backs that were waiting for second half surges because we know that you can at least hold the job for first couple of weeks of the year.
00:57:45
Speaker 1: If Davonte Williams is healthy the whole season, I think he finishes inside the top twenty four at running back, honestly. And part of that is that's almost cheating to say, because any running backer stays healthy the whole year is going to be.
00:57:56
Speaker 4: Doesn't stop the hot thing.
00:57:58
Speaker 3: You can't come with the cavit. You can't be like top twenty four next player.
00:58:02
Speaker 1: I think if he's healthy the whole season's not toy for on opportunity alone. It's not even saying that he's gonna look like the Givonte Evold. I just think the opportunity is so clear there, so I will definitely be drafting him there. Darnell Mooney next up, Ericson's starting with you on this one, one hundred and seventeenth overall wide receiver forty nine.
00:58:19
Speaker 3: I think that I'm going to probably be passing on Darnell Mooney. And it's not that I don't like the player necessarily. I just think he's kind of more of the boom or bust type of wide receiver that I have on my bench that I kind of struggled to figure out. Okay, my starting sky this week. I know if he's playing Tampa Bay, Yes, DARNALLD Mooney's going to be locked into my starting lineup. And I do like the fit with Michael Pennix, But the range he goes in, there's a lot of running backs that I like that I'd rather have on my bench. Kaj Spekers, Jordan Mason goes in his range. I love Jordan Mason this year as a running back to draft in the Vikings offense and Rico Daubele we talked about a little bit earlier when talking about Chub Hubbard. So those guys are all in the same range, and even some of the receivers, like some of the rookies going the same just Darnel Mooney, Kean Coleman, a second year receiver that I think could be a major breakout guy, goes in this range. So although I acknowledge Mooney has a pretty solid floor, and I think that in leagues where you have to start a lot of receivers, it probably makes sense guy like Mooney because you almost had a thousand yards receiving last year. I think he's a good player, but does he have like top tier you no, this guy to be a league winner upside, probably not without an injury to Drake London. So I think that I would rather stash some other guys in his range than draft Mooney.
00:59:33
Speaker 1: Fit's Darnell Mooney draft or pass draft.
00:59:35
Speaker 2: I like him as a wide receiver for wide receiver five, he's been underrated since coming into the league. What I like about Mooney for this year he is not coming off the field very much. He had a ninety two point nine percent snapchair last season, and the Falcons made no significant additions at wide receiver. It's Drake London Darnell Mooney and then man, I don't know. Number three is either Ray Ray McLeod again or maybe Nick Nash and undrafted free agent. So Mooney's gonna play a lot. And I believe in the arm tellent of Michael Pennix Junior. I think he's gonna put up good passing numbers this year. So yeah, I love Mooney as a wide receiver. Four or five.
01:00:13
Speaker 1: Last name here fits will stick with you. Romeo Dubbs one hundred and fiftieth overall wide receiver fifty seven? Are you drafting or passing on the Packers receiver?
01:00:24
Speaker 2: Pass? They're just isn't that much upside? The targets are going to be spread around in Green Bay, the Packers, who were one of the run heaviest teams in the league last year. I just don't think there's any real I don't know, no ceiling with Dobbs Erickson.
01:00:41
Speaker 3: I'm going, I mean the Packers fan wasnt gonna draft Romeo Dobbs, then yeah, I'm good. I think that he's He's like an innings eater, right is that the baseball terminology? He's just out there getting routes, occasionally catches touchdowns, he's a starter. I think he's good in basketball when you need guys to just fill in bye weeks, but in redraft he's a I think that his ceiling is five receiver three at max. I think he's just like much worst version of Darnell Mooney. So yeah, pass for me.
01:01:09
Speaker 1: You can't be doing baseball analogies. Fits and I are facing each other for the one of the final spots to make the playoffs in our fantasy baseball this week, so it's yeah, we finish up this league before football drafts using gets going because everybody here is working for a company that has to dive so much into football, so it's I mean, listen, I'm not excited about the way the playoff setup is, but it's the way it is. So this is the last week of the regular season. Fits and I are both contending for a playoff spot and facing each other, So it's it's hate week here, right.
01:01:38
Speaker 2: I get to knock Worm out of the playoffs. That's gonna be glorious.
01:01:42
Speaker 1: All right, we'll go ahead and rap up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in to draft or pass for Ericson and Fits. I'm Ron Warmley. We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts atantasypros dot com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.