Alternative U.S. Grand Strategies: Past, Present, Future

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- Welcome.
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Welcome to this conversation
about the choices
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that America faces in how
it will engage the world.
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This is a time when the
post-war and cold war security
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and economic order is being reconsidered,
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being challenged from the ground up.
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It's a time when America's
central role in the world
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is being reexamined on many, many fronts.
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That is why I'm so
pleased to have as a part
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of us here at Hoover, our
distinguished visiting fellow
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ambassador Robert Blackwell.
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And his new report has done us the service
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of taking a step back
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and asking important questions
about where we are today
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in terms of America's role
in the world, the role
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of alliances, the role of global power,
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and how we will go forward.
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The Council on Foreign
Relations sponsored Report,
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America revived a grand strategy
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of resolute global leadership
identifies questions
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that we must answer, questions
that we must ask about
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what we do and what we do not try to do
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to achieve global stability
and global prosperity.
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That alone is a valuable map
for today's shifting landscape,
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but of course it goes further
to advocate for the right mix
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of American global leadership today.
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And I look forward to hearing more about
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that from this great report.
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Now I'm going to introduce
Ambassador Blackwell in just a
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moment following Ambassador Blackwell's
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introductory remarks.
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Annenberg distinguished
visiting fellow Ambassador Jim
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or Admiral Jim Ellis, who
chairs Hoover's Global Policy
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and Strategy Initiative.
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And Hoover's Bachan,
senior fellow Philip Zuko,
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will take up the mantle
from Ambassador Blackwell.
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But I just have to say one word
about Ambassador Blackwell.
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He has a long
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and distinguished career
in public service service
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to our country, service, indeed
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to global leadership in the world.
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But I have to tell you that I
first met Ambassador Blackwell
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when I was a young, yes, Bob.
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I was once young, a member
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of the national security staff
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of President George HW Bush,
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and indeed, along with Philip Zuko,
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we were under the tutelage
of Ambassador Blackwell,
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who was the senior director
for the Soviet Union,
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the Soviet Union.
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Just think about that.
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And Eastern Europe at the
end of the Cold War from 1989
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to 19 91, 92,
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it was an extraordinary
time when many of the wishes
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and hopes of the United
States since the end
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of World War II seemed
to be coming into being
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when the Soviet Union was collapsing,
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when Eastern Europe was being liberated
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and when Germany was unifying.
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And what I remember most
about working with Bob during
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that time was that he
had an enormous capacity
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for understanding the essence
of American power, the essence
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of American influence, and
also how to make it all matter.
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So every day Philip will remember,
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we would start our staff
meetings with what have you done
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to unify Germany today?
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It was a way of thinking
about the relationship
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between values and theory and practice.
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And I will always be grateful
to Bob Tutelage in those days.
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He was an enormous mentor
to me and an enormous
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and important friend.
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And so I'm delighted to turn this over now
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to Ambassador Blackwell.
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Bob, we're so glad to have
you as a part of Hoover
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and look forward to your
discussion of this important report
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and to your engagement as
America tries to figure out how
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to think about its role in the world.
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Bob, over to you.
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- Well, thank you. Thank you Condi,
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and you both you
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and Philip show the strength of character
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that you survived working for me.
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Conceptually,
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before I discuss alternative
US grand strategies, I want
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to briefly address the
concept of world order
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and then US vital national interests.
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And I'll show you why I'm
doing that as we go forward.
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As you know,
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and I'm sure all of the viewers
know this world order refers
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to the arrangement at
any given time of power
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and authority in the international system.
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It's always in transit transition.
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Never frozen countries make better
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or worse policy decisions.
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They grow more or less
powerful and influential.
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Non-state actors emerge,
decline, disappear
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when some say world order
is dead or ruptured.
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As the Canadian Prime
Minister said at Davos,
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they usually mean the liberal
internationalist approach
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to world order pursued
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by every American president
since World War II
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until Donald Trump and
they say that is dead.
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An assertion with which
I profoundly disagree,
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as you'll see one final point
about world order in the
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absence of war, political revolution
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or plague, world order
changes very slowly.
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You wouldn't believe
that from the headlines,
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but it does to be specific.
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It does not change on the
basis of a 2:00 AM tweet
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even from the American president.
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And it does not change
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because of a brilliant
US military operation
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to capture the president
of Venezuela World.
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Order moves on a much more
fundamental basis than that.
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So the first step to adopt
a grand strategy is to come
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to a view of the current state
of the international system.
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Its major factors,
threats and opportunities
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and longer term trends.
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Having done that, we next ask
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before we get to grand strategy,
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what are the vital US
national interests connected
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to this world?
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Order until the resurgence
of American nationalism
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and the event of Trumpism
in the past decade,
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US vital national interests for 70 years
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after World War II were more
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or less defined by a bipartisan consensus.
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And let me just name the five.
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To prevent the use and re
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and reduce the threat
of nuclear, biological,
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and chemical weapons
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to ward off catastrophic terrorist AALS
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or cyber attacks against
the United States.
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Its military forces abroad and its allies.
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And notice the last phrase
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and its allies second to stop the spread
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of nuclear weapons, secured
nuclear weapons and materials,
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and reduce further proliferation
of delivery systems
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for nuclear weapons.
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Three, to prevent the emergence
of a hostile major power
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or failed state in the Western hemisphere.
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Four, to maintain global
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and regional balances of power,
especially in the region.
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Eurasian rim lands that
promote peace, stability
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and freedom through domestic
US strength, the projection
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of US power and influence
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and the vitality of US alliances.
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Again, notice alliances.
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And then finally to ensure the viability
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and stability of major
international systems,
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trade financial markets,
public health, energy supplies,
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cyberspace, the environment,
freedom of the seas
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and outer space.
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So in my judgment today, China seeks
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to undermine all five
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of these vital US national interests.
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And President Trump plausibly
rejects three of them
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having analyzed the current
state of world order
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and identified vital
US national interests.
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What then is grand strategy?
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You all could write it out
on a three by five card.
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It's the collective deployment
of diplomatic, economic,
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military, ideological, moral,
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and that's an important F fact
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and bureaucratic means to promote
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and protect these US
vital national interests,
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a theory of security on how
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to make one safe in an unsafe world.
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Now with that as concept,
my report asks as
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what US grand strategy will best protect
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and promote these vital
US national interests in
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the current era.
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The report analyzes
five alternative schools
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of American Grand strategy
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and then proposes my sixth
school Resolute Global
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Leadership, the Primacy
School of Grand Strategy,
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which includes neoconservatism a search
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that the United States must
remain the world's unrivaled
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superpower in every
region, in every dimension.
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And toward that end, pre
prevent the reemergence
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of a peer competitor.
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The liberal international
school envisions a US led open
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rules-based world order,
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and you're familiar with this,
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that champion champions the
rule of law, liberal democracy
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and human rights,
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and uses US military
force as a last resort
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to safeguard US vital national interests.
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The restraint school often
associated with realism
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and offshore balancing
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and scarred by recent
unsuccessful wars seeks to
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slash American global
presence and commitments
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and argues that US military
intervention is almost always
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ill-advised the American
Nationalist School insists
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that the United States should
concentrate its attention
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and strength on the western hemisphere
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that previous presidents have
foolishly agreed to trade
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and security agreements
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that hollowed out the nation's economy
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and that only US power not alliances
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and global organizations
guarantees enduring benefits
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for the United States and Trumpism.
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And exec eccentric version
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of American nationalism depends
on the personal preferences
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of President Donald Trump.
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It radically redefines us
vital national infra interests
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and emphasizes bilateral
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and transactional trade
relationships, business deals
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and diplomatic successes
with less attention
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to their substance over
geopolitical considerations.
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And does that without
collaboration with US allies
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or fidelity
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to core American national values
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including human rights.
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I wanna now go into
more detail on Trumpism.
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I can come back to
liberal internationalism.
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I think you are familiar with that,
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but I do wanna say that in that regard
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in my judgment,
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and this may be controversial
with some of you,
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liberal internationalism has
progressively weakened in
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recent decades.
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It failed to recognize
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and respond adequately to
the rise of Chinese power.
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It failed to increase the defense budget
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and thus allowed China
substantially to reduce the gap
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between the two militaries.
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It failed to halt China's
militarization of the South,
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not China Sea,
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and to resist its mounting
pressure on Taiwan,
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liberal internationalism failed
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to punish Russian aggression in Crimea
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and Donbas in 2014,
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which embolden Moscow's
full scale invasion
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of Ukraine in 2022.
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It failed to quickly send
the most advanced weapons
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to Ukraine to defend itself
after the 2022 Russian invasion.
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It failed to confront Iran's
proxies which grew in strength
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and capability across the Middle East.
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It failed to permanently
cap Iran's AC acquisition
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of fissile material
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and to prevent Iran's
enrichment of uranium well
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beyond the 3% threshold for civilian use.
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It failed to enforce
its red line on Syrian
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chemical weapons use.
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It failed to avoid a disastrous withdrawal
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of US troops from Afghanistan.
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It failed to defend the
international trading system
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that brought untold global
prosperity when it abandoned the
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transpacific partnership
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and it failed to safeguard
the US southern border.
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In short,
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I don't think Harry Truman
would recognize this recent in
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feeble version of
liberal internationalism.
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I don't think Jack
Kennedy would recognize it
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and I don't think Bill
Clinton would recognize it.
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That brings me to the
contending pillars of Trumpism
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and I would just like to list them.
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We can discuss them in general.
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So there'll just to be
assertions, first of all,
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it's counter-revolutionary.
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I regard the, the
liberal internationalism,
263
00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:13,930
which was established
264
00:14:13,930 --> 00:14:18,790
after world Wari was the
revolutionary change in
265
00:14:18,790 --> 00:14:22,720
American foreign policy
from American nationalism
266
00:14:23,590 --> 00:14:27,220
with its emphasis on the
Western hemisphere that had
267
00:14:27,220 --> 00:14:31,570
dominated US grand strategy since the
268
00:14:31,570 --> 00:14:33,340
founding of the Republic.
269
00:14:33,340 --> 00:14:37,930
So the Trump vision is
counter revolutionary.
270
00:14:37,930 --> 00:14:41,410
It has no shared moral framework
271
00:14:41,410 --> 00:14:46,000
and he has said that explicitly
it recognizes no rules
272
00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,160
of international conduct.
273
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:53,160
In principle, it argues
naked power prevails
274
00:14:53,330 --> 00:14:54,980
the law of the jungle.
275
00:14:56,510 --> 00:15:00,680
When I read Mr. Miller
on that score, I thought
276
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:05,510
of a recent trip to the
Serengeti when one guide told me
277
00:15:05,510 --> 00:15:08,720
every night some animals eat
278
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,120
and some animals are eaten.
279
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,520
That sounds pretty much Mr.
280
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,730
Miller's view of civilization.
281
00:15:16,730 --> 00:15:21,350
The president cons concentrates
on bilateral trade business
282
00:15:21,350 --> 00:15:25,340
deals, not geopolitics,
which he rarely mentions.
283
00:15:25,340 --> 00:15:28,220
He questions America's alliances,
284
00:15:28,220 --> 00:15:31,010
he prioritizes western hemisphere
285
00:15:31,010 --> 00:15:33,740
and its borders, which I too support,
286
00:15:33,740 --> 00:15:37,580
but thus is attracted to
regional spheres of influence.
287
00:15:37,580 --> 00:15:41,300
He obviously detests Europe,
288
00:15:41,300 --> 00:15:44,690
which he again showed at Davos
289
00:15:44,690 --> 00:15:48,260
and shows far more
respect for Vladimir Putin
290
00:15:48,260 --> 00:15:52,070
and Xi Jinping than our democratic allies.
291
00:15:52,070 --> 00:15:55,130
He seeks rapid diplomatic successes
292
00:15:55,130 --> 00:15:57,440
through threats and ultimatum.
293
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:58,520
He proposes,
294
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:02,240
and this is important, no
increase in the defense budget.
295
00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,770
The budget that he
submitted at the beginning
296
00:16:06,770 --> 00:16:10,940
of his second term was in real terms,
297
00:16:10,940 --> 00:16:14,540
in real dollars less than
the last Biden budget.
298
00:16:14,540 --> 00:16:18,050
He rejects in principle
US boots on the ground
299
00:16:18,050 --> 00:16:20,420
and no more wars.
300
00:16:20,420 --> 00:16:24,650
And he has no concern
about climate change,
301
00:16:24,650 --> 00:16:27,290
which he calls a hoax.
302
00:16:27,290 --> 00:16:31,970
So that I think captures there
are more than 300 footnotes
303
00:16:31,970 --> 00:16:35,870
in the report and it takes you where to go
304
00:16:35,870 --> 00:16:40,550
to find the origins of my
conclusions in that regard.
305
00:16:40,550 --> 00:16:43,310
Now I'd like to contrast that Trumpism
306
00:16:43,310 --> 00:16:48,310
with my alternative US
grand strategy, which goes
307
00:16:48,620 --> 00:16:51,140
under these pillars, preserve
308
00:16:51,140 --> 00:16:55,820
and protect the American
constitutional order in principle
309
00:16:55,820 --> 00:16:57,440
and in practice,
310
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:01,040
maintain America's military superiority
311
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,530
and the willingness to use force on behalf
312
00:17:03,530 --> 00:17:05,720
of US vital national interest
313
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,770
by substantially increasing the
defense budget over the next
314
00:17:09,770 --> 00:17:14,210
decade and winning the high
technology race with China,
315
00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:18,770
especially in artificial
intelligence, to revitalize
316
00:17:18,770 --> 00:17:22,310
and reform a rule-based world order
317
00:17:22,310 --> 00:17:25,130
through sustained American leadership
318
00:17:25,130 --> 00:17:29,060
and intense diplomacy to prevent the use
319
00:17:29,060 --> 00:17:32,810
and spread of nuclear weapons,
including through force
320
00:17:32,810 --> 00:17:36,225
to stave off China's hegemonic objectives
321
00:17:36,225 --> 00:17:40,340
by pivoting US military
forces to Asia, from Europe
322
00:17:40,340 --> 00:17:43,940
and the Middle East,
strengthening American alliances
323
00:17:43,940 --> 00:17:46,340
and leading a collaborative reform
324
00:17:46,340 --> 00:17:51,210
of the international
trading system, it in wishes
325
00:17:51,210 --> 00:17:54,600
to intensify diplomacy with China
326
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,270
to avoid war over Taiwan.
327
00:17:57,270 --> 00:17:58,830
Increase diplomatic
328
00:17:58,830 --> 00:18:02,250
and economic engagement
with the Western hemisphere,
329
00:18:02,250 --> 00:18:04,260
promote vigorously democracy
330
00:18:04,260 --> 00:18:07,380
and human rights around
the world without the use
331
00:18:07,380 --> 00:18:11,040
of military force except to avert genocide
332
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,840
and to treat climate change
as a profound global threat.
333
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,620
If I may say in this
Hoover institution setting,
334
00:18:19,620 --> 00:18:22,830
I believe one of my heroes for
whom I was honored to work,
335
00:18:22,830 --> 00:18:27,270
George Schultz, would generally
endorse these pillars.
336
00:18:27,270 --> 00:18:32,040
So in conclusion, I wanna
contrast how President Trump
337
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,660
and my proposal
338
00:18:33,660 --> 00:18:37,920
of resolute global leadership
would instinctively address
339
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,640
current issues in American foreign policy.
340
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,810
This contrast seeks only
to give an overall picture
341
00:18:45,810 --> 00:18:47,520
of the substantive thrusts
342
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,220
of the two alternative grand strategies.
343
00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:53,940
So I'll go through them
one by one very quickly.
344
00:18:53,940 --> 00:18:57,270
So contain China Trumpism?
345
00:18:57,270 --> 00:19:02,130
No, my proposal, yes.
Defend Taiwan Trumpism.
346
00:19:02,130 --> 00:19:04,200
No, my proposal,
347
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:08,910
yes in initiate a major
increase in defense spending.
348
00:19:08,910 --> 00:19:12,510
Trumpism, no, my proposal, yes.
349
00:19:12,510 --> 00:19:16,530
Continued major military and
political support to Ukraine.
350
00:19:16,530 --> 00:19:20,100
Trumpism. Question mark my proposal.
351
00:19:20,100 --> 00:19:24,030
Yes, confirm NATO Article five Trumpism.
352
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,350
Question mark my proposal.
353
00:19:28,350 --> 00:19:33,090
Yes, except Iranian nuclear
enrichment Trumpism.
354
00:19:33,090 --> 00:19:34,740
Yes, I think in the end,
355
00:19:34,740 --> 00:19:39,330
and yes, I would support that with
356
00:19:39,330 --> 00:19:42,270
proper verification and so forth.
357
00:19:42,270 --> 00:19:45,930
Use military force in
extremists against the Iranian
358
00:19:45,930 --> 00:19:47,250
nuclear program.
359
00:19:48,180 --> 00:19:51,600
I, yes, I say yes. I'm
not sure about Trump.
360
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,820
If there were Iranian air defenses reform
361
00:19:56,820 --> 00:20:00,210
and bolster mul multilateral trade policy.
362
00:20:00,210 --> 00:20:05,070
Trump no, my proposal,
yes, impose high tariffs
363
00:20:05,070 --> 00:20:07,470
to vitalize the American economy.
364
00:20:07,470 --> 00:20:11,940
Trump, yes, my proposal, no constrained
365
00:20:11,940 --> 00:20:15,300
to China for national high tech to China
366
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:17,700
for national security reasons.
367
00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:20,940
I have a question mark
for Trump, given TikTok
368
00:20:20,940 --> 00:20:25,650
and the Nvidia sales advanced chip sales
369
00:20:25,650 --> 00:20:28,410
to China, but yes, I would do it.
370
00:20:28,410 --> 00:20:32,730
Promote values as an important
element in US foreign policy.
371
00:20:32,730 --> 00:20:36,240
Trump no, I would say yes, use force
372
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,150
to spread American values.
373
00:20:39,150 --> 00:20:43,140
And that's a no from
Trump and a no from me.
374
00:20:43,140 --> 00:20:47,080
Although since this was
published at the end
375
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,090
of December
376
00:20:49,090 --> 00:20:53,830
or finished to go to the publisher, he has
377
00:20:53,830 --> 00:20:58,420
used force in defense of
Christians, he says in Nigeria
378
00:20:58,420 --> 00:21:02,560
and told the Iranian
demonstrators help is on the way.
379
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,540
So I'm not sure about the
380
00:21:04,540 --> 00:21:07,060
strength in international institutions.
381
00:21:07,060 --> 00:21:10,210
Trump no, my proposal, yes,
382
00:21:10,210 --> 00:21:12,610
offer the developing world a positive
383
00:21:12,610 --> 00:21:15,340
and sympathetic version of world order.
384
00:21:15,340 --> 00:21:17,620
No, I say yes
385
00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:19,450
and take substantial action
386
00:21:19,450 --> 00:21:21,490
to reduce climate change to Trump.
387
00:21:21,490 --> 00:21:23,860
No, I say yes
388
00:21:23,860 --> 00:21:28,420
as the report demonstrates
the United States remains the
389
00:21:28,420 --> 00:21:30,940
most powerful nation on earth.
390
00:21:30,940 --> 00:21:33,880
So in that sense, the
future is in our hands
391
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,020
and in my view,
392
00:21:35,020 --> 00:21:39,760
the liberal internationals
wor world order is not ir,
393
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:41,770
irreparably broken.
394
00:21:41,770 --> 00:21:45,790
Those who argue that it is do
not enumerate what elements
395
00:21:45,790 --> 00:21:48,220
of liberal internationalism
396
00:21:48,220 --> 00:21:53,220
and world order cannot be
repaired and re reinvigorated.
397
00:21:53,230 --> 00:21:55,240
They are genuinely dead.
398
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,150
Please name them one by one,
399
00:21:58,150 --> 00:22:00,250
as is clear in my remarks today.
400
00:22:00,250 --> 00:22:04,360
As I conclude, I believe
Trumpism undermines the nation's
401
00:22:04,360 --> 00:22:09,070
prosperity, security, and
legitimacy simultaneously
402
00:22:09,070 --> 00:22:10,900
because of its determination
403
00:22:10,900 --> 00:22:14,020
to go it alone in the
international system.
404
00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:17,230
But I believe Donald
Trump's foreign policies
405
00:22:17,230 --> 00:22:18,880
can be reversed.
406
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:23,050
There are not at least so
far structural in character.
407
00:22:23,050 --> 00:22:25,690
They can be prepared by the ne repaired
408
00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:29,710
by the next president
working closely, as did all
409
00:22:29,710 --> 00:22:32,950
of his preces predecessors
since World War ii,
410
00:22:32,950 --> 00:22:37,810
before Donald Trump with
American allies and partners.
411
00:22:37,810 --> 00:22:39,400
Thank you for your attention.
412
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,950
I look forward to your
comments and questions.
413
00:22:43,300 --> 00:22:45,280
- Well, thank you Bob Ambassador
414
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,560
and sincere thanks again for joining us
415
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,200
and congratulations on the
416
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,630
Council on Foreign
Relations special report.
417
00:22:52,630 --> 00:22:54,820
It's comprehensive in a timely perimeter,
418
00:22:55,930 --> 00:22:58,300
the ongoing global
conversations about the state
419
00:22:58,300 --> 00:23:01,390
and future of the world order
and America's place in it.
420
00:23:01,390 --> 00:23:04,270
It's hugely popular as
we have over 300 folks
421
00:23:04,270 --> 00:23:07,240
that have signed on for
this webinar remotely,
422
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,940
and I would remind them that
they can submit questions
423
00:23:09,940 --> 00:23:13,150
for the ambassador via
the webinar q and a tool.
424
00:23:14,110 --> 00:23:16,990
Bob, my first question was
going to be to take you
425
00:23:16,990 --> 00:23:19,060
to the conversation on world order,
426
00:23:19,060 --> 00:23:22,420
but you have very passionately
kind of addressed the,
427
00:23:22,420 --> 00:23:25,600
the realities and your sense of optimism
428
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,120
that it is not irrevocably broken.
429
00:23:28,120 --> 00:23:30,520
So I'm gonna move on to, to another area
430
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,950
that I think is gonna be fundamental to,
431
00:23:32,950 --> 00:23:35,020
to bringing about the
change that, that you
432
00:23:35,020 --> 00:23:37,060
so eloquently articulated
433
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,810
in your fascinating historical review
434
00:23:40,810 --> 00:23:43,240
of past grand strategies.
435
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,650
You've noted that Woodward
Wilson Woodrow Wilson,
436
00:23:45,650 --> 00:23:49,280
in his pursuit of a version
of liberal internationalism
437
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,550
quote, failed to carry either
the Senate or the country.
438
00:23:53,570 --> 00:23:57,080
As we can see in today's
often strident conversations,
439
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,060
political and popular perceptions
are extremely important,
440
00:24:02,060 --> 00:24:06,500
absent and existential
economic or security crisis.
441
00:24:06,500 --> 00:24:10,040
Where does that conversation
begin beyond the political
442
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:11,630
and policy elite
443
00:24:11,630 --> 00:24:14,210
and more convincingly
with the American people?
444
00:24:15,230 --> 00:24:18,950
- Well, I think, and you
imply this, Jim, it, it begins
445
00:24:18,950 --> 00:24:23,950
with American politics and
not with American strategists.
446
00:24:24,380 --> 00:24:27,260
And it begins with
447
00:24:27,260 --> 00:24:31,130
an American presidential
candidate probably
448
00:24:31,970 --> 00:24:36,110
making the case against American
449
00:24:36,110 --> 00:24:40,280
international isolation against the
450
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,180
eccentric policies of President Trump.
451
00:24:44,180 --> 00:24:47,900
And to continue to make that
case through the election.
452
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,830
The polls show that
453
00:24:52,670 --> 00:24:56,270
the American people wanna
be engaged in the world.
454
00:24:56,270 --> 00:24:58,040
But when was the last time
455
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,720
that a liberal internationalist
made that case in detail
456
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,160
to the American people?
457
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,250
And I think not really since
458
00:25:08,630 --> 00:25:10,820
before President Obama.
459
00:25:10,820 --> 00:25:12,950
So that's where it begins.
460
00:25:12,950 --> 00:25:17,840
Now, much will depend on
President Trump's successor
461
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,780
in the Republican party,
462
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,600
but I would only say this and
it's epigrammatic to be sure.
463
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,750
I think Donald Trump is
464
00:25:30,770 --> 00:25:35,060
a unique figure in American history.
465
00:25:35,060 --> 00:25:39,770
And I don't think that the many elements
466
00:25:39,770 --> 00:25:43,580
that I mentioned in
Trumpism, I don't think all
467
00:25:43,580 --> 00:25:48,170
of them are going to survive
whoever his successor is,
468
00:25:48,170 --> 00:25:52,280
and if it's Vice P, the vice President
469
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,140
or the Secretary of State, both
470
00:25:54,140 --> 00:25:57,110
of whose names have been
mentioned by President Trump,
471
00:25:57,110 --> 00:26:00,230
I don't believe that the more personal
472
00:26:00,230 --> 00:26:04,220
and idiosyncratic dimensions
473
00:26:04,220 --> 00:26:07,790
of Trumpism are, are going
474
00:26:07,790 --> 00:26:10,340
to survive his departure.
475
00:26:11,210 --> 00:26:16,160
- Great. Well thank you for
that here at Hoover, as you did.
476
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,920
We recall finally the
years of contributions
477
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,130
that the late secretary
George Schultz made here.
478
00:26:22,130 --> 00:26:25,610
And he had the knack of
balancing realism and optimism
479
00:26:25,610 --> 00:26:26,720
and in remarks he delivered
480
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,580
to the Commonwealth Club some years ago,
481
00:26:28,580 --> 00:26:29,960
I think it was 1985,
482
00:26:30,950 --> 00:26:33,230
he declared the civilizations
decline when they stop
483
00:26:33,230 --> 00:26:35,300
believing in themselves.
484
00:26:35,300 --> 00:26:36,350
And ours has thrived
485
00:26:36,350 --> 00:26:37,910
because we never lost our conviction
486
00:26:37,910 --> 00:26:40,850
that our values are worth defending.
487
00:26:42,990 --> 00:26:44,310
Many of the conversation today,
488
00:26:44,310 --> 00:26:48,060
and you did in your earlier
remarks, replace the term values
489
00:26:48,060 --> 00:26:51,600
with interests implying that values are,
490
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,490
that are in the words of, you know,
491
00:26:53,490 --> 00:26:55,350
the recent National Defense strategy,
492
00:26:55,350 --> 00:26:58,140
a cloud castle abstraction perhaps,
493
00:26:58,140 --> 00:26:59,820
and part of a zero sum balance.
494
00:26:59,820 --> 00:27:00,990
And that you can have values
495
00:27:00,990 --> 00:27:03,570
or you can have interest, but not both.
496
00:27:03,570 --> 00:27:06,240
In fairness, you seem to
be articulating a strategy
497
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,700
that considers both, but
acknowledge the tension
498
00:27:08,700 --> 00:27:11,940
that can arise in attempting
to pursue them simultaneously.
499
00:27:12,870 --> 00:27:15,210
Are values and interests both achievable
500
00:27:15,210 --> 00:27:16,470
or is this one of the trade-offs
501
00:27:16,470 --> 00:27:19,590
of which you spoke in your, in your paper?
502
00:27:19,590 --> 00:27:23,940
- They're both achievable,
but there are tensions
503
00:27:23,940 --> 00:27:27,000
and trade-offs on individual issues.
504
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,560
But I believe an American foreign policy
505
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:36,560
without fundamental American
values is an American,
506
00:27:36,930 --> 00:27:41,730
because every predecessor of
507
00:27:42,660 --> 00:27:45,510
President Trump has
508
00:27:45,510 --> 00:27:50,010
put American values in a
509
00:27:50,010 --> 00:27:53,520
context of shared virtue.
510
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,600
And this president seems
not to believe that.
511
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,690
He seems to believe that right
512
00:28:00,690 --> 00:28:04,710
and wrong has no abstract meeting
513
00:28:04,710 --> 00:28:08,790
or no shared meeting
among the American people.
514
00:28:08,790 --> 00:28:13,020
It is he who decides what
is right and what is wrong.
515
00:28:13,020 --> 00:28:17,460
And that again, is unique I
think in American history.
516
00:28:18,450 --> 00:28:23,450
Henry Kissinger wrote a
book on this subject of
517
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:24,810
world order
518
00:28:24,810 --> 00:28:28,350
and the last chapter describes at length
519
00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:31,110
this tension that you mentioned
520
00:28:31,110 --> 00:28:33,900
between interests and values.
521
00:28:33,900 --> 00:28:38,370
But any American foreign
policy in my judgment, has
522
00:28:38,370 --> 00:28:41,220
to be based as Secretary Schultz said,
523
00:28:41,220 --> 00:28:45,990
as you quoted him on a
fundamental realization
524
00:28:45,990 --> 00:28:49,050
that America stands for something.
525
00:28:49,050 --> 00:28:53,310
It isn't, it isn't endorsing
526
00:28:53,310 --> 00:28:55,080
the law of the jungle.
527
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,740
And I'm hopeful that that's also the view
528
00:28:58,740 --> 00:29:00,870
of the American people when it's explained
529
00:29:00,870 --> 00:29:04,380
to them in more detail than
it's been the case so far.
530
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,290
- Right. So you're essentially saying
531
00:29:07,290 --> 00:29:09,690
that not only is it possible,
it's absolutely essential
532
00:29:09,690 --> 00:29:12,690
that America be both great and good.
533
00:29:12,690 --> 00:29:15,180
- Yes. Well put.
534
00:29:15,180 --> 00:29:19,230
- Thank you. One of the
things I do here at,
535
00:29:19,230 --> 00:29:21,930
at hoover is the project on Taiwan
536
00:29:21,930 --> 00:29:24,720
and the Indo-Pacific
part of the Global Policy
537
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,430
and Strategy initiative.
538
00:29:26,430 --> 00:29:27,960
You mentioned it in your remarks, but,
539
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,600
and at the risk of becoming too tactical,
540
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,330
one issue you do call out in
the chart in the comparison you
541
00:29:33,330 --> 00:29:37,800
just, you just made comparing
your proposed grand strategy
542
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,260
with with other candidates.
543
00:29:41,260 --> 00:29:43,450
And I know you and Philip have
both written extensively on
544
00:29:43,450 --> 00:29:45,220
the topic of, of Taiwan,
545
00:29:45,220 --> 00:29:47,800
but how do you reconcile
your assertion that
546
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:51,250
we should defend Taiwan
with the recommendation
547
00:29:51,250 --> 00:29:55,000
that Washington should intensify
US diplomacy with Beijing
548
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:59,080
to avoid war, which will
require compromise on both sides
549
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,140
and collaboration with China
to address global problems?
550
00:30:02,140 --> 00:30:05,710
I guess essentially I'm asking
wither strategic ambiguity.
551
00:30:07,060 --> 00:30:11,530
- Well, I, I tried in the
chart, which is near the end
552
00:30:11,530 --> 00:30:15,280
of the report, to be as
clear as I could about
553
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,160
what I would recommend to a president.
554
00:30:19,060 --> 00:30:22,180
And I'm not proposing the end
555
00:30:22,180 --> 00:30:24,670
of strategic ambiguity I'm,
556
00:30:24,670 --> 00:30:27,340
but the president would want
557
00:30:27,340 --> 00:30:32,340
to know in a crisis whether hi his
558
00:30:32,590 --> 00:30:36,850
principal advisors we're prepared
559
00:30:36,850 --> 00:30:39,850
to recommend that we defend Taiwan or not.
560
00:30:39,850 --> 00:30:44,440
And I indicated that I
would at that moment,
561
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,700
if in the White House, yes,
say go to war with China,
562
00:30:48,700 --> 00:30:51,640
to defend Taiwan, it's an enormous issue.
563
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:56,260
And one of course we discuss incessantly.
564
00:30:56,260 --> 00:31:00,430
I'm not sure that pre president
Trump has the same view.
565
00:31:01,570 --> 00:31:02,980
He once said,
566
00:31:02,980 --> 00:31:05,050
and again this is in the footnotes,
567
00:31:05,050 --> 00:31:09,940
that Taiwan was a tiny little
speck off the coast of China
568
00:31:09,940 --> 00:31:12,910
that stole our chip technology.
569
00:31:12,910 --> 00:31:17,050
Well, they may keep strategic ambiguity,
570
00:31:17,050 --> 00:31:19,930
but it doesn't sound to me as if
571
00:31:21,310 --> 00:31:24,820
that would be something he
would li be likely to do.
572
00:31:24,820 --> 00:31:29,380
But the diplomacy part of it
is we have to do two things.
573
00:31:29,380 --> 00:31:31,690
We have to strengthen deterrence
574
00:31:31,690 --> 00:31:35,620
and that has a major
military component obviously
575
00:31:36,670 --> 00:31:41,530
and stopped this erosion
of our advantages,
576
00:31:41,530 --> 00:31:45,280
including in around
the first island chain,
577
00:31:46,180 --> 00:31:50,620
but also to intensify diplomacy
578
00:31:50,620 --> 00:31:53,350
with respect to avoiding war.
579
00:31:53,350 --> 00:31:57,820
I don't believe China wants
a war over Taiwan, but,
580
00:31:57,820 --> 00:31:59,710
and we certainly don't,
581
00:31:59,710 --> 00:32:03,790
but the way to avoid it is
582
00:32:03,790 --> 00:32:06,850
through diplomacy and
strengthened deterrence.
583
00:32:06,850 --> 00:32:09,220
And I believe deterrence has been weakened
584
00:32:10,450 --> 00:32:13,630
over the last decade plus with respect
585
00:32:13,630 --> 00:32:15,550
to Chinese views of Taiwan.
586
00:32:16,570 --> 00:32:20,290
- Well, I think you make a
great point ambassador about
587
00:32:20,290 --> 00:32:21,400
the importance of deterrence
588
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,000
and sometimes we lose sight
of that as we intellectually
589
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,190
or in reality gid up for
590
00:32:27,190 --> 00:32:29,590
what might become a, a future conflict.
591
00:32:29,590 --> 00:32:32,260
But I guess the question I would ask, and,
592
00:32:32,260 --> 00:32:35,715
and again, it's more reflective
of your, you know, decades
593
00:32:35,715 --> 00:32:38,320
of, of national service in
the international arena.
594
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,980
How well do you think we
understand what it would take
595
00:32:42,980 --> 00:32:45,050
to deter Xi Jinping specifically
596
00:32:45,050 --> 00:32:47,360
and Chinese leadership more broadly?
597
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,940
If you, if you think it
goes beyond Xi Jinping,
598
00:32:50,990 --> 00:32:52,430
are we guilty of mirror imaging
599
00:32:52,430 --> 00:32:55,550
or do we have a a real insight as to as to
600
00:32:55,550 --> 00:33:00,230
how most effectively
implement a strategy that
601
00:33:00,230 --> 00:33:03,350
that relies heavily as we
all want to on the deterrence
602
00:33:03,350 --> 00:33:04,370
of future conflict?
603
00:33:05,420 --> 00:33:09,740
- Well, I can't answer that
completely without having access
604
00:33:09,740 --> 00:33:13,550
to the intelligence that the
president gets with respect
605
00:33:13,550 --> 00:33:18,550
to the inner deliberations
of the Chinese government.
606
00:33:19,010 --> 00:33:21,410
But I would imagine, I guess
607
00:33:21,410 --> 00:33:24,440
that it's pretty di minimis
608
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:29,300
and so our views have to
be based on hypotheses
609
00:33:29,300 --> 00:33:32,900
that cannot be proven.
610
00:33:32,900 --> 00:33:36,410
But I believe if you
look at Chinese behavior
611
00:33:38,090 --> 00:33:42,260
since say 2010, there is no doubt
612
00:33:42,260 --> 00:33:46,610
that they've upped the pressure on Taiwan
613
00:33:46,610 --> 00:33:47,690
progressively.
614
00:33:49,340 --> 00:33:51,320
They, I think as an objective,
615
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,250
and this has been in the
press for the meeting
616
00:33:55,250 --> 00:33:58,970
in the spring between the two presidents
617
00:33:59,960 --> 00:34:02,720
will seek to persuade President Trump
618
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,010
to adopt the Chinese
position that one China means
619
00:34:07,010 --> 00:34:09,230
Taiwan unifying with China.
620
00:34:10,190 --> 00:34:15,080
And I hope, I think we
all hope he won't do
621
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:19,430
that, but one has to try
622
00:34:19,430 --> 00:34:23,660
to balance what we know
and what we don't know.
623
00:34:23,660 --> 00:34:27,770
And I think your question
implies that to try to get
624
00:34:27,770 --> 00:34:32,330
inside this tiny, tiny five person
625
00:34:32,330 --> 00:34:35,510
or so, maybe it's now four
626
00:34:35,510 --> 00:34:38,810
or maybe even three to know
627
00:34:38,810 --> 00:34:42,740
what they really are saying,
we're probably not gonna have
628
00:34:42,740 --> 00:34:44,510
that as a basis.
629
00:34:44,510 --> 00:34:48,860
So we have to broaden
our views, speculate,
630
00:34:48,860 --> 00:34:50,660
but try to avoid risks
631
00:34:50,660 --> 00:34:53,540
and to assume that
632
00:34:54,890 --> 00:34:59,180
that Xi Jinping does
not mean it when he says
633
00:34:59,180 --> 00:35:01,430
that the PLA should be ready
634
00:35:01,430 --> 00:35:06,020
to use force against
Taiwan in 2027 to assume
635
00:35:06,020 --> 00:35:09,890
that he's just talking for
an international audience
636
00:35:09,890 --> 00:35:14,180
or for domestic consumption
would be I think
637
00:35:14,180 --> 00:35:15,920
highly dangerous.
638
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:17,390
- Great point. One final question
639
00:35:17,390 --> 00:35:19,550
before I pass it to, to Philip.
640
00:35:21,050 --> 00:35:24,560
You talked about the value
of allies and partners and,
641
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,000
and I think most of us that have
642
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,570
had a role in the international
arena appreciate the
643
00:35:29,570 --> 00:35:31,460
incredible contributions
that they have and,
644
00:35:31,460 --> 00:35:34,790
and continue to make to
our collective security.
645
00:35:36,170 --> 00:35:39,000
But those of us that are
having current conversations
646
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,030
with them are hearing a
lot of voices of dismay,
647
00:35:42,030 --> 00:35:44,610
as you might imagine, as
I'm sure you are as well.
648
00:35:45,930 --> 00:35:49,830
Would you hazard a guess
at a timeline to, to bring
649
00:35:49,830 --> 00:35:51,600
them back on side, if you will?
650
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,675
Or is this like the laws of mathematics
651
00:35:54,675 --> 00:35:57,930
and physics where one exception,
you know, violates the rule
652
00:35:57,930 --> 00:36:01,050
and, and now it's been torn once and
653
00:36:01,050 --> 00:36:02,850
therefore it could
conceptually happen again?
654
00:36:02,850 --> 00:36:06,000
Where is that trust that
George Schultz always used
655
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:07,080
to talk to us about?
656
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,770
And how long do you think
it could take to rebuild
657
00:36:10,770 --> 00:36:12,120
that if in fact it can be?
658
00:36:13,260 --> 00:36:17,190
- Well, I have bad news
in that regard in the,
659
00:36:17,190 --> 00:36:19,950
in the tactical sense, I do not think
660
00:36:19,950 --> 00:36:23,670
that trust will be rebuilt during
661
00:36:23,670 --> 00:36:25,860
President Trump's second term.
662
00:36:25,860 --> 00:36:27,780
I believe we know who he is.
663
00:36:27,780 --> 00:36:30,510
I believe we know what
he thinks about allies,
664
00:36:30,510 --> 00:36:32,820
which is contemptuous and
665
00:36:32,820 --> 00:36:37,650
therefore he will go on
acting as he has been acting.
666
00:36:37,650 --> 00:36:42,180
And this, as you said,
667
00:36:42,180 --> 00:36:46,020
is eroding substantially the trust
668
00:36:47,010 --> 00:36:50,100
of our allies in the United States
669
00:36:50,100 --> 00:36:53,010
and in the American commitments.
670
00:36:53,010 --> 00:36:54,450
And this is crucial.
671
00:36:54,450 --> 00:36:56,760
I'll just mention one dimension of it,
672
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:58,680
which will be familiar to the viewers.
673
00:36:59,730 --> 00:37:04,530
Extended deterrence depends
674
00:37:04,530 --> 00:37:06,450
on capability,
675
00:37:06,450 --> 00:37:08,610
but also on trust
676
00:37:08,610 --> 00:37:12,270
that our allies in order not
677
00:37:12,270 --> 00:37:15,570
to acquire nuclear weapons, trust
678
00:37:15,570 --> 00:37:20,040
that the United States will
actually use a nuclear weapon in
679
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,010
defense, not of American territory,
680
00:37:23,010 --> 00:37:25,590
but in a defense of allied territory.
681
00:37:25,590 --> 00:37:28,590
Charles Dega, of course never believed it,
682
00:37:28,590 --> 00:37:31,980
and it is a fragile trust
683
00:37:31,980 --> 00:37:35,460
and it's no,
684
00:37:35,460 --> 00:37:39,420
it's no coincidence that in South Korea
685
00:37:39,420 --> 00:37:43,410
and Japan, there's now
a vigorous discussion
686
00:37:43,410 --> 00:37:45,210
of more than ever
687
00:37:45,210 --> 00:37:47,040
before in the post-war period
688
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,890
of whether they should
acquire nuclear weapons.
689
00:37:49,890 --> 00:37:53,370
So trust has to be reestablished,
690
00:37:53,370 --> 00:37:55,650
but in my judgment, that will be a task
691
00:37:55,650 --> 00:37:57,630
for the next president.
692
00:37:57,630 --> 00:38:01,110
I don't think this president
is, we know who he is,
693
00:38:01,110 --> 00:38:02,640
we know what he thinks.
694
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:07,640
And so I don't believe
that he will, he will
695
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,350
make any headway in that regard.
696
00:38:10,350 --> 00:38:12,420
And this one last point, which is
697
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:15,930
this report was written
698
00:38:15,930 --> 00:38:19,500
and sent to the publisher
at the end of last year,
699
00:38:19,500 --> 00:38:23,010
but I recognize what I'm sure
the viewers are thinking,
700
00:38:23,010 --> 00:38:25,710
well, that's your view now,
701
00:38:25,710 --> 00:38:30,240
but what about President
Trump's next three
702
00:38:30,240 --> 00:38:33,090
years in office?
703
00:38:33,090 --> 00:38:37,180
And in that regard, I simply counsel, see
704
00:38:37,180 --> 00:38:41,890
what he says and see what he does.
705
00:38:41,890 --> 00:38:46,890
He will go on traumatizing
the allies in what he says,
706
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:52,080
but let's see if he does
actions, takes actions,
707
00:38:52,150 --> 00:38:57,150
for example, substantially
reducing US forces in South Korea
708
00:38:57,220 --> 00:38:58,780
or in Japan
709
00:38:58,780 --> 00:39:03,780
or drawing down dramatically
US forces in Europe
710
00:39:04,090 --> 00:39:08,380
or questioning again
711
00:39:08,380 --> 00:39:12,550
in action whether he would abide by
712
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,480
Article five, if there's
a crisis, for example,
713
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,190
in the Baltic states.
714
00:39:18,190 --> 00:39:21,880
So I think all of us need
715
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,690
to be less traumatized by
716
00:39:25,690 --> 00:39:30,280
what he says and although
what does erode trust
717
00:39:31,510 --> 00:39:35,770
and concentrate more on what he does,
718
00:39:35,770 --> 00:39:40,250
and I'll just finish
with this, Davos went a,
719
00:39:40,250 --> 00:39:41,650
a Twitter
720
00:39:41,650 --> 00:39:46,650
because of President Trump's statement
721
00:39:46,690 --> 00:39:50,890
that he would consider using force
722
00:39:50,890 --> 00:39:55,750
against Denmark to acquire Greenland.
723
00:39:55,750 --> 00:39:58,870
Not that he would, not that he did,
724
00:39:58,870 --> 00:40:00,400
but that he would consider it.
725
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,410
And of course he backed off that.
726
00:40:02,410 --> 00:40:05,710
So we should pay as
727
00:40:05,710 --> 00:40:09,580
Ed Meese in the Reagan
administration, stressed
728
00:40:10,540 --> 00:40:14,650
watch what he does, not what
he says at two in the morning.
729
00:40:15,940 --> 00:40:19,720
- Well, thank you Ambassador
Philip, I invite you to,
730
00:40:19,720 --> 00:40:22,870
to take over and and bring
a, a different perspective
731
00:40:22,870 --> 00:40:25,510
and an important perspective
to the conversation.
732
00:40:25,510 --> 00:40:28,240
- Oh, thanks Jim. And thank you Bob
733
00:40:28,240 --> 00:40:31,060
for producing this important report.
734
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,810
One of the things I just wanna
do right off is I wanna call
735
00:40:34,810 --> 00:40:37,480
out a particular
contribution of the report.
736
00:40:39,220 --> 00:40:41,170
There are a lot of people
737
00:40:41,170 --> 00:40:43,720
who criticize President
Trump's foreign policy,
738
00:40:43,720 --> 00:40:46,090
and so that's not unique about the report.
739
00:40:47,050 --> 00:40:50,710
I do think the report is unique in,
740
00:40:50,710 --> 00:40:55,180
in an important publication
in distinguishing
741
00:40:55,180 --> 00:40:59,410
Trumpism from the School
of American nationalism.
742
00:41:00,610 --> 00:41:04,030
I think it's, it's very widely perceived
743
00:41:04,030 --> 00:41:08,530
that Trump actually represents
American nationalism.
744
00:41:09,490 --> 00:41:12,940
And you actually call out
the fact that, you know what,
745
00:41:12,940 --> 00:41:16,390
actually he's got a different mix here
746
00:41:16,390 --> 00:41:19,840
and it's not a different
mix just in nuances.
747
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:24,280
It's a different mix in
a deep conceptual way.
748
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,190
I mean, even in when you
opened up, you alluded
749
00:41:27,190 --> 00:41:30,220
to Trump's policies as
perhaps as being just a,
750
00:41:30,220 --> 00:41:33,320
an eccentric version of
American nationalism.
751
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,240
But I think if I understand it right,
752
00:41:35,240 --> 00:41:37,760
the argument you make in your
report is deeper than that.
753
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,490
That that there's, you know,
754
00:41:40,490 --> 00:41:44,690
there are just core conceptual
differences between Trumpism
755
00:41:44,690 --> 00:41:46,460
and American nationalism.
756
00:41:46,460 --> 00:41:50,450
And I just wanted to, if, if
you agree with what I'm saying,
757
00:41:50,450 --> 00:41:53,180
I'd like to invite you to just
take a moment to drive that.
758
00:41:53,180 --> 00:41:56,300
'cause I I don't think that's
the conventional wisdom.
759
00:41:57,860 --> 00:41:59,270
- Well, it is my view
760
00:41:59,270 --> 00:42:04,070
and it's, let me just say
in the first instance,
761
00:42:04,910 --> 00:42:08,270
American nationalism,
which do do dominated
762
00:42:08,270 --> 00:42:13,270
as I said earlier, American
grand strategy from the founding
763
00:42:13,610 --> 00:42:17,660
to essentially with a brief interregnum
764
00:42:17,660 --> 00:42:21,770
with Woodrow Wilson up to the
beginning of World War II,
765
00:42:22,610 --> 00:42:26,900
wanted no geopolitical involvement in
766
00:42:26,900 --> 00:42:30,350
crises outside the Western hemisphere.
767
00:42:30,350 --> 00:42:32,660
And, and
768
00:42:32,660 --> 00:42:36,110
therefore American nationalists,
769
00:42:36,110 --> 00:42:40,640
although in public, most
of them are quiescent,
770
00:42:41,510 --> 00:42:44,120
but some of them, some
771
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,790
of the American nationalism condemn
772
00:42:48,860 --> 00:42:52,520
President Trump's energetic
773
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,700
involvement in every region of the world
774
00:42:55,700 --> 00:42:58,790
for every conceivable reason.
775
00:42:58,790 --> 00:43:03,770
And this is reflected in what
776
00:43:03,770 --> 00:43:07,550
as former former Jedi Knights, you
777
00:43:07,550 --> 00:43:10,670
and I, Jim and Condi would recognize
778
00:43:10,670 --> 00:43:14,660
and probably the the
viewers, some of the viewers,
779
00:43:14,660 --> 00:43:18,740
the compromised document, the
national security strategy
780
00:43:19,580 --> 00:43:21,740
and the National Defense Strategy
781
00:43:21,740 --> 00:43:26,480
because you could see the
American Nationalist School
782
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:30,140
at war with the trumpet school
783
00:43:30,140 --> 00:43:32,870
and for example,
784
00:43:32,870 --> 00:43:36,710
and in some, to some degree
even with the primacy school.
785
00:43:36,710 --> 00:43:41,360
So one of the reasons
that I'm optimistic is
786
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:45,350
that, and this may seem
paradoxical, I think
787
00:43:45,350 --> 00:43:49,580
that the struggle ahead
will not be Trumpism
788
00:43:49,580 --> 00:43:54,230
versus liberal internationalism.
789
00:43:54,230 --> 00:43:57,890
I think it will be liberal
internationalism versus American
790
00:43:57,890 --> 00:44:00,920
nationalism after the Trump years.
791
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,280
And I don't want to predict
how that will come out,
792
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,100
but it's the American nationalism
793
00:44:07,100 --> 00:44:11,870
and the report goes into much
detail is simply fundamentally
794
00:44:11,870 --> 00:44:16,870
opposed to this from
the very beginning, from
795
00:44:17,240 --> 00:44:21,170
the 1780s onward, is opposed to this
796
00:44:21,170 --> 00:44:22,970
energetic activism
797
00:44:22,970 --> 00:44:27,470
to involve the United States
in other nations quarrels
798
00:44:27,470 --> 00:44:29,150
outside the Western hemisphere.
799
00:44:30,230 --> 00:44:32,250
- So let me pursue that.
800
00:44:32,250 --> 00:44:35,070
'cause then in a way, there's
a way to read the report.
801
00:44:35,070 --> 00:44:38,220
And again, it's, as you
pointed out at the beginning,
802
00:44:38,220 --> 00:44:41,700
this is a report about
broad grant strategy
803
00:44:41,700 --> 00:44:43,350
and broad concepts.
804
00:44:43,350 --> 00:44:46,320
So it's easy to fall into a
discussion, well what would you,
805
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:48,720
what do you recommend about Iran tomorrow?
806
00:44:48,720 --> 00:44:53,400
Or what do you recommend
about maybe Taiwan tomorrow?
807
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:58,080
But your reports at another
level above that as kind
808
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:02,700
of a broad conceptual roadmap
of how to match ends and means
809
00:45:02,700 --> 00:45:07,590
and, and attaining America's
national interests as
810
00:45:07,590 --> 00:45:09,840
as you propose them.
811
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:14,840
So you're making an argument
then in a way that Trumpism
812
00:45:14,910 --> 00:45:17,850
is, w will have a debate
813
00:45:17,850 --> 00:45:22,740
between the am the purified
American nationalism form,
814
00:45:22,740 --> 00:45:25,710
which maybe could be represented
by vice president fans
815
00:45:27,390 --> 00:45:30,480
and actually some rev,
816
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:35,480
some new purified version of
liberal internationalism redux.
817
00:45:35,550 --> 00:45:38,370
In some ways you could have
titled your report liberal
818
00:45:38,370 --> 00:45:39,990
internationalism revived,
819
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,160
because your argument is
820
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:48,900
that in liberal internationalism
was basically sound, except
821
00:45:48,900 --> 00:45:53,760
that in recent years it was undercut that,
822
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:57,090
that that liberal internationalism
823
00:45:58,020 --> 00:45:59,460
was no longer muscular,
824
00:46:00,630 --> 00:46:02,850
it was no longer committed to free trade.
825
00:46:04,590 --> 00:46:07,470
And basically by abandoning
826
00:46:08,340 --> 00:46:11,580
those key elements, it became this
827
00:46:11,580 --> 00:46:16,350
flacid palate version of liberal
internationalism that kind
828
00:46:16,350 --> 00:46:20,610
of this wilting flower that
then kind of left the door open
829
00:46:20,610 --> 00:46:21,750
for Trumpism.
830
00:46:21,750 --> 00:46:25,260
And then you'll see this reengaged debate
831
00:46:25,260 --> 00:46:28,650
between the pure American nationalism
832
00:46:28,650 --> 00:46:32,490
and some kind of new version
of liberal internationalism,
833
00:46:32,490 --> 00:46:35,520
which could be espoused
either by a Marco Rubio
834
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,430
or by a relatively centrist
democratic candidate.
835
00:46:40,710 --> 00:46:43,800
Is that then the, is that
really then the kind of debate
836
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:45,720
that you're teeing up on,
837
00:46:45,720 --> 00:46:48,660
which you're also now
trying to take sides?
838
00:46:48,660 --> 00:46:51,900
- You put it well, and the answer is yes.
839
00:46:51,900 --> 00:46:56,190
And as I say I am, if I thought
840
00:46:56,190 --> 00:46:59,790
that Trumpism in its current form
841
00:47:00,690 --> 00:47:03,780
had deep roots in
842
00:47:04,770 --> 00:47:08,550
American history and politics,
I'd be a lot more worried.
843
00:47:08,550 --> 00:47:10,320
I think he's a unique figure.
844
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:15,000
And so there are question marks here,
845
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:18,090
where will the, the Republican candidate
846
00:47:19,500 --> 00:47:20,940
place himself
847
00:47:20,940 --> 00:47:24,930
and it'll be a him with respect
848
00:47:24,930 --> 00:47:27,180
to these two alternatives.
849
00:47:28,290 --> 00:47:31,720
And where will a Democrat
850
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,740
place himself
851
00:47:35,740 --> 00:47:38,950
or perhaps herself with respect to this?
852
00:47:38,950 --> 00:47:43,720
And on the Democrat side, they,
853
00:47:43,720 --> 00:47:47,860
the report has been
criticized by the Democrats,
854
00:47:48,790 --> 00:47:51,940
the practitioners in
the administrations that
855
00:47:53,890 --> 00:47:58,570
were represented in the report as weak
856
00:47:58,570 --> 00:48:02,650
and flacid, but I don't know
857
00:48:02,650 --> 00:48:05,290
what they would say privately,
858
00:48:05,290 --> 00:48:09,310
but we need a reinvigorated liberal
859
00:48:09,310 --> 00:48:10,330
internationalism.
860
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,420
That's the reason the first word
861
00:48:13,420 --> 00:48:17,260
of my alternative is resolute,
862
00:48:17,260 --> 00:48:18,880
which I don't believe.
863
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,620
And each of the word is care.
864
00:48:20,620 --> 00:48:24,910
Each of those words is
carefully chosen, resolute
865
00:48:26,230 --> 00:48:30,910
international, so not
spheres of intra influence
866
00:48:30,910 --> 00:48:33,310
and not just the western hemisphere
867
00:48:33,310 --> 00:48:37,240
and then leadership, global leadership.
868
00:48:37,240 --> 00:48:41,680
So it's global leadership,
it's the world and leadership.
869
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:46,680
So I think that's the Beit
ahead, but I can't forecast,
870
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,480
and this is deeply worrying to me
871
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,630
and perhaps to the viewers
872
00:48:52,630 --> 00:48:56,920
where President Trump is
gonna take this country
873
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,990
in the next three years.
874
00:48:58,990 --> 00:49:03,970
And I, I say Philip, that I believe that
875
00:49:04,885 --> 00:49:07,960
a resolute global internationalism can be
876
00:49:09,940 --> 00:49:14,940
revived in the next administration,
877
00:49:15,130 --> 00:49:17,620
but it does depend on what he does
878
00:49:17,620 --> 00:49:20,800
and how much he breaks,
879
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,170
not just weakens,
880
00:49:23,170 --> 00:49:26,530
but breaks the conventions of world order
881
00:49:26,530 --> 00:49:30,190
that have existed since
the end of World War ii.
882
00:49:30,190 --> 00:49:33,040
- So my last comment, or my
last question really for you
883
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:37,240
and, and then we have a few minutes
884
00:49:37,240 --> 00:49:39,550
for questions from the audience,
885
00:49:39,550 --> 00:49:41,920
is the American people actually have the
886
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,540
self-belief to do this.
887
00:49:43,540 --> 00:49:47,500
I mean, that is clearly the American,
888
00:49:47,500 --> 00:49:50,980
the co the American confidence
in their own project
889
00:49:52,900 --> 00:49:56,530
and in their, and and in the
righteousness of their own
890
00:49:56,530 --> 00:50:00,610
place in the world has
visibly diminished Yes.
891
00:50:00,610 --> 00:50:03,640
Undercut by many things, including,
892
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,440
including failures overseas.
893
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:10,030
Yes. Which have, which have had a
894
00:50:10,030 --> 00:50:12,340
which may or may not have
changed world history,
895
00:50:12,340 --> 00:50:16,330
but have had a really deep
effect on American self-belief
896
00:50:16,330 --> 00:50:17,800
and self-confidence.
897
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:21,790
So in a way you may have,
898
00:50:21,790 --> 00:50:25,690
you may have the hopes of the,
of the role we should play,
899
00:50:26,590 --> 00:50:28,250
but as a practical matter,
900
00:50:28,250 --> 00:50:30,230
it seems like isn't the foundation
901
00:50:30,230 --> 00:50:32,720
of your grand strategy either measures
902
00:50:32,720 --> 00:50:35,090
or something that allow America
903
00:50:35,090 --> 00:50:37,550
to recover the c self-confidence
904
00:50:37,550 --> 00:50:39,470
and self-belief to play the role you're
905
00:50:39,470 --> 00:50:40,520
trying to cast for them?
906
00:50:41,570 --> 00:50:46,490
- Yes. And that's hardly a given.
907
00:50:46,490 --> 00:50:47,780
That's hardly a given.
908
00:50:47,780 --> 00:50:50,900
And some who have read the report
909
00:50:50,900 --> 00:50:53,660
have said it's hopelessly optimistic
910
00:50:53,660 --> 00:50:56,600
for the reasons you imply
911
00:50:56,600 --> 00:51:00,230
that the American people no
longer believe in the American
912
00:51:00,230 --> 00:51:02,120
dream and so forth.
913
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,750
But what I say to them
as a practitioner, as you
914
00:51:05,750 --> 00:51:09,860
and many others are on
this, on, on, on this video,
915
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:16,000
all right, if you think that's
unreasonably optimistic,
916
00:51:16,100 --> 00:51:18,260
you tell me
917
00:51:18,260 --> 00:51:21,920
what the US role in the world
918
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:25,340
and its implication should be.
919
00:51:25,340 --> 00:51:30,340
If, if you think that's too optimistic.
920
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,800
And that's a challenge I give
921
00:51:35,690 --> 00:51:39,320
the, the readers of the report
922
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:40,490
and most folks
923
00:51:40,490 --> 00:51:44,870
who say it's too optimistic
don't have an alternative grand
924
00:51:44,870 --> 00:51:48,265
strategy except for the Amer,
925
00:51:48,265 --> 00:51:50,090
the pure American nationalists.
926
00:51:50,090 --> 00:51:52,070
And they do have a grand strategy.
927
00:51:52,070 --> 00:51:54,530
And, and I believe that's,
928
00:51:55,940 --> 00:51:59,780
that's unrealistic in the
current global setting.
929
00:51:59,780 --> 00:52:03,020
But American presidents can't
930
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:10,250
be satisfied only with counselors
who say that won't work.
931
00:52:11,510 --> 00:52:15,350
They have to also then
say, but this will work Mr.
932
00:52:15,350 --> 00:52:19,250
President, and what we're
waiting for from others
933
00:52:19,250 --> 00:52:20,990
who are critical of this report
934
00:52:20,990 --> 00:52:23,630
or more generally is what will work.
935
00:52:23,630 --> 00:52:25,520
And I'll conclude this by saying,
936
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:30,110
and it's it's intro to
another long conversation.
937
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,160
I do not believe we're
headed for a multipolar world
938
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,180
and I believe we're headed
939
00:52:38,180 --> 00:52:40,700
for a bipolar world in the United States
940
00:52:40,700 --> 00:52:44,270
and China, which will be
very familiar in many ways.
941
00:52:44,270 --> 00:52:47,870
But if you do think we're headed
942
00:52:47,870 --> 00:52:49,790
for a multipolar world
943
00:52:49,790 --> 00:52:54,230
with a much diminished
US role, then you have
944
00:52:54,230 --> 00:52:57,680
to answer how do these middle level
945
00:52:58,550 --> 00:53:02,030
nations organize to cope
946
00:53:02,030 --> 00:53:05,120
with the enormous power of China?
947
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,710
And it's not, but coping
with a benign China
948
00:53:09,710 --> 00:53:14,710
as the report seeks to indicate.
949
00:53:14,930 --> 00:53:17,600
- Well, thank you Bob.
Thank you Philip as well.
950
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:19,370
We've now got time for
a couple of questions
951
00:53:19,370 --> 00:53:20,480
that have been submitted.
952
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,170
I'm gonna take the, the
editorial rights and,
953
00:53:24,170 --> 00:53:25,620
and consolidate of them,
954
00:53:25,620 --> 00:53:28,260
but the first one, I think
it, it appeared a couple
955
00:53:28,260 --> 00:53:31,560
of times is Europe is
obviously under invested
956
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,200
to an enormous degree in
their defense capability.
957
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,570
They admit that Trump's views
958
00:53:36,570 --> 00:53:40,200
that these allies are free
riding on US power and spending.
959
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:43,500
How do you reconcile such
free riding with your concept
960
00:53:43,500 --> 00:53:46,470
of the importance of important
role of allies going forward?
961
00:53:47,460 --> 00:53:49,860
- Well, I don't think they're free riders
962
00:53:49,860 --> 00:53:52,950
and they haven't been, I wonder
963
00:53:54,510 --> 00:53:58,050
how many non US divisions
964
00:53:59,010 --> 00:54:03,240
Donald Trump could name that
hit the beaches at Normandy.
965
00:54:05,070 --> 00:54:08,370
I doubt if he would
know the answer to that.
966
00:54:08,370 --> 00:54:12,330
And as you look at the cold,
967
00:54:12,330 --> 00:54:16,290
cold war period, Europe in general,
968
00:54:16,290 --> 00:54:19,980
and Germany in particular, we're going
969
00:54:19,980 --> 00:54:22,200
to be the first line of defense.
970
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:27,200
They were enormously fortified.
We were a long way away.
971
00:54:27,240 --> 00:54:30,300
If there was a conventional war in Europe,
972
00:54:30,300 --> 00:54:32,430
they have underspent for sure.
973
00:54:32,430 --> 00:54:36,330
They're now because of the Ukraine war and
974
00:54:36,330 --> 00:54:40,770
because of Donald Trump,
they are pledged to to,
975
00:54:42,300 --> 00:54:43,920
to spend more.
976
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:45,810
But they are not free riders.
977
00:54:45,810 --> 00:54:50,810
And I support President Trump's
pressure on them to do more.
978
00:54:51,210 --> 00:54:55,890
But doing more should be
in a collaborative sense.
979
00:54:55,890 --> 00:54:58,320
And I think Europeans who say, well,
980
00:54:58,320 --> 00:55:02,160
we'll just organize ourselves without
981
00:55:02,160 --> 00:55:05,160
a US role in our defense
982
00:55:06,780 --> 00:55:09,360
are silly to pick a technical word.
983
00:55:12,210 --> 00:55:14,430
- Great. We talked a little bit
984
00:55:14,430 --> 00:55:17,670
or a lot actually about, about
supernational organizations
985
00:55:17,670 --> 00:55:19,350
and the, and the like and,
986
00:55:19,350 --> 00:55:21,750
and the need for, for allies and partners.
987
00:55:21,750 --> 00:55:25,290
How do you conflate
those two considerations?
988
00:55:25,290 --> 00:55:28,800
I mean, whatever the next
administration looks like.
989
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,950
Do you see a continuation of of the extant
990
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:36,000
supernational organizations
such as the United Nations
991
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:37,560
and the WTO and,
992
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:39,990
and how do you compare that to, you know,
993
00:55:39,990 --> 00:55:43,860
the newer emerging relationships
such as the Quad and,
994
00:55:43,860 --> 00:55:47,490
and you know, Aus and the like.
995
00:55:47,490 --> 00:55:49,350
What do you, how do
you, how do you balance
996
00:55:49,350 --> 00:55:53,460
that in your idea of
reform and, and improvement
997
00:55:54,510 --> 00:55:56,730
and retrenchment going forward?
998
00:55:56,730 --> 00:56:00,270
- Well, I'll take that good question.
999
00:56:00,270 --> 00:56:03,540
I'll take advantage of it
to say just another example
1000
00:56:03,540 --> 00:56:07,410
of Trump's disinterest in
alliances is his disinterest in
1001
00:56:07,410 --> 00:56:10,680
the quad, his disinterest in alkis
1002
00:56:12,180 --> 00:56:16,830
his interest instead on
1003
00:56:16,830 --> 00:56:21,660
the dis equilibria between China,
1004
00:56:21,660 --> 00:56:26,440
sorry, between India and its
its protectionist economy
1005
00:56:26,440 --> 00:56:28,450
and the United States.
1006
00:56:28,450 --> 00:56:30,730
So again, another example
1007
00:56:30,730 --> 00:56:33,520
of this concentration on trade issues,
1008
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:37,690
but the reform, I I have
1009
00:56:37,690 --> 00:56:41,890
to say I I I just read a good piece,
1010
00:56:41,890 --> 00:56:45,910
thoughtful saying, well, the
1011
00:56:45,910 --> 00:56:50,560
United Nations should be
expanded by five members
1012
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:52,300
and no veto power.
1013
00:56:53,260 --> 00:56:55,930
And that's like me saying, I would like
1014
00:56:55,930 --> 00:56:57,910
to have a 42 inch vertical leap.
1015
00:56:59,020 --> 00:57:01,540
It is simply not going to happen
1016
00:57:02,590 --> 00:57:07,510
and the security council
is going to be moot
1017
00:57:08,470 --> 00:57:10,840
as long as Russia
1018
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,800
and China seek to undermine US
1019
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:18,970
and Western objectives around the world.
1020
00:57:18,970 --> 00:57:21,190
But much of the UN does good work
1021
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,370
and we should support that.
1022
00:57:25,510 --> 00:57:28,150
We should be in favor of un peacekeeping
1023
00:57:29,020 --> 00:57:32,170
even if the Chinese have
a major role in that.
1024
00:57:32,170 --> 00:57:34,900
But there's the, the WTO,
1025
00:57:36,220 --> 00:57:39,160
there's the OECD, of course
there's the World Bank
1026
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:44,140
and the IMF, these organizations produce,
1027
00:57:44,140 --> 00:57:48,340
they export stability if
they can be made to work.
1028
00:57:48,340 --> 00:57:51,760
And I would like the next
administration difficult
1029
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:56,760
as it will be to make a major
e effort in each of these
1030
00:57:56,860 --> 00:58:00,760
primary organizations to strengthen them.
1031
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:03,310
And that will require of course
1032
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,080
changes in their principles to some degree
1033
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,690
and their practices and conduct.
1034
00:58:10,690 --> 00:58:15,280
But we should be willing to
address that in the context of
1035
00:58:16,660 --> 00:58:21,660
the effort to be plausibly sympathetic to
1036
00:58:21,820 --> 00:58:25,450
the developing world, which
has an ever greater percentage
1037
00:58:25,450 --> 00:58:28,840
of the population
1038
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:33,250
and which will have more
influence over time on the
1039
00:58:33,250 --> 00:58:35,920
international, on international order.
1040
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,830
So that's a, another big task.
1041
00:58:38,830 --> 00:58:41,110
And, but it's one worth trying.
1042
00:58:41,110 --> 00:58:43,990
It won't be easy, but
it's one worth trying.
1043
00:58:43,990 --> 00:58:46,300
And I think until
1044
00:58:47,260 --> 00:58:50,140
Trump won American presidents,
1045
00:58:50,140 --> 00:58:55,090
whatever their political party
did try to do that, did try
1046
00:58:55,090 --> 00:58:57,790
to do that in general,
some more than others.
1047
00:58:58,780 --> 00:59:02,050
But the next president should make a major
1048
00:59:02,050 --> 00:59:03,220
effort in that regard.
1049
00:59:04,150 --> 00:59:06,250
- Well, thank you Bob. We
are, we are coming to the,
1050
00:59:06,250 --> 00:59:07,360
to the end of our time.
1051
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:10,150
It's been a, a, a great conversation
1052
00:59:10,150 --> 00:59:12,970
and I have not gotten to a
fraction of the questions
1053
00:59:12,970 --> 00:59:16,840
that were submitted by,
by the remote participants
1054
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:18,730
and I, I apologize for that.
1055
00:59:18,730 --> 00:59:21,590
But I do wanna thank you again,
ambassador for joining us
1056
00:59:21,590 --> 00:59:24,140
and thanks as well to all
of those who participated
1057
00:59:24,140 --> 00:59:26,450
for their contributions to this event.
1058
00:59:26,450 --> 00:59:28,310
Again, brought to you under the auspices
1059
00:59:28,310 --> 00:59:30,050
of the Hoover Global Policy
1060
00:59:30,050 --> 00:59:31,670
and Strategy Initiative,
1061
00:59:31,670 --> 00:59:35,030
a reminder you can download
Ambassador Blackwell's study
1062
00:59:35,030 --> 00:59:38,450
from the Council on
Foreign Relations website.
1063
00:59:38,450 --> 00:59:39,650
And a recorded copy
1064
00:59:39,650 --> 00:59:41,630
of today's conversation will be
1065
00:59:41,630 --> 00:59:44,960
available@hoover.org in a, in a few days.
1066
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:49,640
So again, Bob, thanks so much
for, for being a part of this
1067
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:51,890
and engaging so effectively
1068
00:59:51,890 --> 00:59:55,070
and well on, on the
important document that you
1069
00:59:55,070 --> 00:59:57,470
and the Council of Foreign
Relationship have produced
1070
00:59:57,470 --> 01:00:00,410
that's gonna inform this
ongoing conversation,
1071
01:00:00,410 --> 01:00:04,430
not just domestically, but
internationally. Thank you.
1072
01:00:04,430 --> 01:00:06,230
- Thank you Jim. And thank you everybody.