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Hello and welcome to Slabnomics.
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If you haven't been here before, this podcast is aimed to help you make better financial decisions in sports cards and TCG.
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And normally on this channel, I oscillate between philosophical episodes and episodes that are much more practical.
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This balance between the conceptual and the practical is something that I like to keep.
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But as this podcast has now developed over the last year and a half or so, it's time to start spreading out into different forays.
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I have a lot of ideas for some very fun new episodes coming down the pipe.
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And today we're going to kick off Slabnomics deep dives.
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We'll still have the episodes where we talk about theory, and we'll still have the episodes where we talk about concrete ideas, but I want to add the deep dives in.
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And today specifically, I want to talk about a set that I don't think is fully understood by the market.
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This is one of my all-time favorite sets, and I'm going to delve into the history of it for you, show you what the significance is, talk about why it's important both historically and for the actual cards themselves, discuss the math that goes into these sealed boxes and their contents, and just generally talk about why it's special.
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By the end of this episode, hopefully you have an opinion on if it's overrated or underrated.
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And by the end of this episode as well, I'm going to be giving you a sneak peek as to what I believe my next episode will be.
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And I would love to get your feedback down below in the comments when we get to that point.
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So throw me a quick like and let's get the show on the road.
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Everyone knows that the 80s and 90s were the junk wax era.
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Manufacturers for sports cards were printing them out the wazoo because there was a newfound passion returning for sports cards.
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As the printing presses increased their output year after year after year, by the early 90s there was fatigue in the market.
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Collectors were tired of seeing millions of copies of the same card, and the manufacturers knew that some kind of innovation was needed if they were going to keep their cash cow producing.
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Before the mid-90s, the chase cards ended up being error cards.
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Whether it was just a birthday of the player that was wrong, no name printed of the player on the front, or some colorful language on the bottom of a bat, these error cards gave the hobby rarity to chase.
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So in 1993, for baseball and for basketball, we got the first brand new, innovative, crazy new set, Tops Finest.
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These Top's Finest had refractors that we now are very familiar with.
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But when they came out in these early 90s, these refractors were the Cat's pajamas.
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Emboldened by the success of the selling of the packs and boxes for these, the manufacturers decided to push a new product in 1996.
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A product that they were going to be able to sell much more than the$1.29 price point that packs were selling at before.
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Thus, in 1996, Topps Chrome was born.
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Topps Chrome was printed for baseball, basketball, and for football.
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And that's the set we're going to talk about today.
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Specifically, 1996 Topps Chrome NFL set.
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Now you have to understand that after all these years of printing, the manufacturers were concerned that they might not be able to sell this new product.
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This concept was far from a shoe-in.
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Remember that price point I was talking about?
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Trying to ask the market for 4x what they were used to paying is always going to be a pretty tough sell.
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Although now we pay about 4x what hobby boxes were just a few years ago, but I digress.
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Anyways, so the point was they didn't think that this was a slam dog success, they were very wary, and so they didn't print much of the inaugural set for Topps Chrome.
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And the makeup of the set is what is so interesting as well.
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The chase cards for the set were simply silver refractors.
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It was the first time that they'd been put into sets, not topp's finest, and I suppose you could say more specifically, into a set that mirrored perfectly the Topps flagship set itself, at least in terms of design.
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In terms of composition, though, they actually boiled down Top's flagship set list quite a bit.
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The traditional flagship set was 440 cards in the checklist, and the brand new Topps Chrome with its shiny chromium finish had only the bangers, only 165 cards in its checklist, mostly made up of hot incoming rookies as well as tried and true stars.
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Besides the base and the refractors, which I'll get into the rarity of in a second, there were also a few different inserts.
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See, this release coincided with the 40th anniversary of the inaugural Topps football set in 1956.
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So there were many cards that were released as inserts or parallels, really reprints of previous cards for a lot of the players.
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These 40th anniversary cards, as well as some pretty cool inserts with tide turners, and then the yard club inserts that memorialized different milestones in passing, rushing, and receiving, like a thousand yards, 3,000 yards, etc.
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These were all fun parts of the set, but the real nitty-gritty of the set, the real value add, was these silver refractors.
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Now, when we think silver refractors today, we picture something that you can get so many of.
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Even in something like 2018 Topps Chrome Baseball, there were about 5,000 refractors for each of the players.
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Refractors have really become almost base for a lot of collectors in a lot of sets today.
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But 1996 Topps Chrome NFL football is believed to have had a print run of only 150 refractors per player.
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This is something that was said at the time of release, and the population reports roughly confirm this range.
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So remember that number.
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There were two refractors in each box, and these boxes right now, by the way, are about$750.
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I said before the packs were about five bucks, and there were 24 packs in each box.
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So a hobby box was about 120 bucks.
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Now remember, tops didn't know if this new product was going to be successful.
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And at the jump, it actually wasn't.
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A lot of boxes sat on shelves in the late 1996 season when the cards were distributed.
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Topps Ripped, which is an extension of the Topps website that tells some stories of historical things connected to Tops, tells us what actually saved this set from historical obscurity, a timeline which would have probably had the hobby look very different today.
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The site actually says it was Beckett's price guide that really jumpstarted people in early 1997 to start buying up all these boxes sitting on the shelves.
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See the resale market for all of these refractors got hot.
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Arrows were just going up month by month by month on the refractors, people took notice and they started to grab as much as they could.
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So let's talk a little bit about the players in this set.
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Starting, of course, with the rookie class.
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Now, I believe that the biggest reason that Topps Chrome NFL, as opposed to its baseball and basketball counterparts, is undervalued exactly because of its rookie class.
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See in baseball, the 1996 Tops Chrome for Ken Griffey Jr.
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and Derek Jeter aren't really considered rookies, but they're kind of considered first cards for them, and the values that they go for are pretty incredible.
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If you look at 1996 Top Scrum basketball, you of course have the GOAT in Michael Jordan, but you also have a pretty big rookie in Kobe Bryant.
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In that NFL set, though, the biggest rookies that you really have are Marvin Harrison and Jonathan Ogden, who is Baltimore's actually first pick of their entire franchise.
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Sadly, in the top scrum football set, we are missing Terrell Owens and Ray Lewis.
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They would have bolstered that rookie class, and maybe the top scrum NFL set would have been much better for it long term.
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As it stands, we have Harrison, we have Ogden, we have Keyshawn Johnson and Eddie George, to name a few.
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But the real strength of the checklist is in the legends that are already veterans.
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You have two of the best running backs to ever play the game in Barry Sanders and Emmett Smith.
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And in particular, Barry Sanders did not have a lot of cards because his career was pretty short and it was right smack in the middle of the junk wax era.
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You also had some of the best quarterbacks, absolute legends to play the game, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Dan Marino, and even Steve Young.
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And you can't forget a guy named Jerry Rice.
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So this first set of Tops Chrome had a packed checklist, just not that much of a rookie class.
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If you've been a longtime follower of Slabnomics, you know that my rule of thumb is that rookie cards are about 10 times more valuable than their other years of cards on an apples to apples basis.
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This is why when people talk about sets, they always start with the rookie class, because it's 10 times more valuable than just a regular card.
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But I think even though the rookie class of this 1996 NFL set might not be the strongest, the fact that it is the inaugural set, the fact that it is the first, always is going to give it a historical bump and make it relevant.
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For the same reason that we like the rookie card of players, we like the rookie card of sets.
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It's really the most pure manifestation of that set design.
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And you always remember your first.
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So speaking of design, the design of these cards is a classic kind of honeycomb texture surrounded by a border that has the picture of the player bleeding into the edges.
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I absolutely love the design of this thing.
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I think it's so pure and it's so simple yet so detailed in the photo.
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It's a very upfront, close photo for most of these guys.
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And their action shots, wearing full uniforms, except the rookies who a lot of times are wearing training camp kind of garb with their name on their helmet, or their actual draft day photo.
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The Barry Sanders photo is sweet.
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So we've talked a little bit about the design of the set.
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We talked about the rarity of these refractors at only 150 apiece.
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Let's talk about the print run for the actual set before we start diving into some of the player populations.
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If there's 150 total refractors and there's 165 players in the checklist, we know that there's two refractors per box, and we know that the total amount of the refractors for the checklist is 24,750.
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That's 165 times 150.
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Then, if there's two of those per box, we divide that by two, and that tells us exactly how many boxes were made.
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So the print run for 1996 Topps Chrome NFL is 12,375 boxes.
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If you're used to the modern equivalent of thinking about this, it's usually measured in cases.
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That's 1,000 cases.
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So remember it was 120 bucks per box.
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So these print runs were tiny.
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And not only were the print runs tiny, but the way that these were manufactured has made the survival rate of these cards in high condition almost microscopic.
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I took a look at the top nine players in terms of value for these refractors because I wanted to get an idea of what all the populations and gem rates were.
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Let me read to you the population of PSA 10s for these top 9 value cards.
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And it's in no particular order.
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Troy Aikman, pop 2.
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Brett Favre, pop 4, which I find apropos.
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John Elway, pop 2 on the PSA 10.
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Jerry Rice has a bunch of 10s, he has 5 of them.
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Emmett Smith comes in at 3 on the PSA 10.
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Jonathan Ogden only has two, and Marvin Harrison comes far and away with the most.
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He has 10 PSA 10s.
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Notable players that do not have a single gem, Dan Marino and Barry Sanders.
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And the total population for all of these for graded are usually in the 30s to 60s, even for these, the most legendary, iconic, popular players.
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And those are populations across all graders in the 30s to 60s.
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Now one thing I do have to call out because we are assuming this 150 print run for all of the refractor numbers.
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If you look at Marvin Harrison's, you'll see he actually has 216 on his total pop for graded.
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A significant amount of these are going to be cross grades, retries, etc.
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etc.
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I think it's certainly possible that a lot of the Beckett's, which were over 80, could have been retried into PSA.
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Same thing goes for the SGCs.
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So given that a lot of the populations are sitting in the 30s to 60s and the gems are 2, 3, etc., you can imagine that these are pretty low gem rates.
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Aside from the couple 0% gem rates that we have, most are hovering in the 7s to 8%.
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So not only are these cards exceedingly rare for a first set, but they're incredibly condition sensitive.
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A lot of the issues in Topps Chrome for these early sets are print lines that you'll see on the front, especially prevalent on the borders, and centering being all over the place.
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Add to that the well-known green hueing effects that a lot of the early Tops Chrome has.
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I haven't found this myself too much in the NFL cards, but I also don't buy the ones that I do see the tint on.
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And adding up all these factors, you can see why these gem rates are so tough on something that's already so rare.
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Jerry Rice has a massive market, and he has five refractors in a PSA 10.
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So given all of this, given the rarity, the historical significance, etc., how much do you expect that these cards are worth?
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Especially some of those names that I mentioned, like Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Favre, Marino, Elway, their cards sell really well.
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But I can't believe the kind of prices that these go for in terms of how low they are with this rarity and with the significance of this set.
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Of those seven players I mentioned that have gems, six of them fall into the$2,000 to$3,000 range to get a PSA 10.
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Now these very rarely sell, so we're mostly going off card letter values here, but most of these have a sale in the past six months or so.
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I will say that the one exception that is pretty expensive is the Jerry Rice, which is really a testament to how massive his market is as the GOAT of all wide receivers.
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Rice's PSA 10 last went for$6,500, and I was the one that bought it.
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Elways Pop 2 has no sales ever, and hopefully someday we'll get a Barry Sanders or Dan Marino PSA 10 and see what those go for.
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The 9 for Sanders goes for about$2,500, so I'd imagine that the 10 would be something like 12 to 15k somewhere in there.
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When I talk about these values, I'm curious if you guys are surprised at them being high or low.
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I've looked at these for so long and really hunted a lot of them down already.
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So I think I've kind of gotten over any sticker shock that I had at any point, especially considering how much I value low population and tough grade cards.
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But you tell me in the comments and let me know.
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What do you think?
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Are they undervalued, overvalued?
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Are they just right?
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And do you think it's enough for the set to be the first set to override maybe a weak rookie class?
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I'll definitely read all the comments, so let me know.
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So now that we've gone over some of the pricing, talked about the population for these players in their cards, I want to do a little exercise with you that I think is an interesting way to expand your mind when thinking about trying to get cards and ascertaining what their true value is.
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There's two ways to get cards.
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You can either buy singles or you can buy sealed and try and pull one, right?
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At the end of the day, you're buying either the chance to pull it or one that someone already pulled.
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So sometimes when I'm trying to look at cards and see if I really want to pay up for them, like I did for that Jerry Rice, I find it useful to frame the idea of what would it take for me to go pull this card?
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We know all the numbers, so we can calculate what that would be.
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And in a set like this, where you literally just have base or refractor, it really is the refractors driving most of the value of that box.
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So let me run through how I think of it.
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When I bought the Jerry Rice, I paid$6,500.
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When I'm trying to buy something like a first set, I'm gonna do what you're gonna do as well.
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First look for the goats.
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And of this set, there is one player that is a goat of his position.
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Unquestioned holds all the records, just checks every box, and that's Jerry Rice.
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So let's say I don't want to pay 6.5k, and I think that I can just buy boxes and pull a Jerry Rice refractor.
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Because at some point I will, right?
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Now we said before that there were just over 12,000 hobby boxes made.
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12,375.
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And the question is if I want to buy enough boxes that I will statistically guarantee that I'm going to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, how many boxes is that going to take?
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Well, there's two refractors in each box, and there's 165 on that checklist.
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So with average luck, if I buy 83 boxes, I'll have one refractor per player.
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Of course, the distribution is going to change based off your luck.
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But just talking about math, 83 boxes should get you to a Jerry Rice refractor.
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The boxes are$750 apiece.
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So if I want to be able to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, I would have to invest$62,250 to do so.
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Sounds like a lot of money, right?
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But you also have to remember that the Jerry Rice refractor that I'm going to pull out of one of those boxes might not be a PSA 10.
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And in fact, it's very unlikely that it is.
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Rice's gem rate is 9.4%.
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So if I not only want to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, but I want to get one that's statistically a PSA 10, it's going to take roughly$620,000 to do so.
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Oh, and by the way, I would expect that the gem rates would actually get worse over time because those boxes sit around in conditions that are not ideal.
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Maybe they're wet, maybe they get oxidized, maybe they stick together.
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So I would not be surprised in the slightest if that Jerry Rice population never even hit 10.
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This is how rare it is to get the perfect condition card for this set.
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I don't think any of these players are going to get to 15 on their PSA 10 populations.
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So by now, I'm sure you've gotten it.
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It's a historically relevant set.
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It's full of legends, it's a small checklist, and it's got low gem rates.
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So the supply side, everything stacks up.
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But the real question in your mind, as it is in mine, has to be: will this set continue to grow in popularity and demand?
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This is mere conjecture, but if you want my opinion, I am a firm believer that it will.
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I believe that Topps Chrome, every time it comes back, every time Topps gets the license again, it renews the interest in those older sets of that brand.
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And the more and more people find out about how hard it is to get these cards, the more they just disappear.
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In an age where Pokemon cards have 50,000 gems within a year, we're talking about an entirely different era.
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An era that a lot of us really miss.
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I think sets that are timeless, sets that are simple yet elegant, that don't need 65 different parallels, I think these sets will always be something that we come back to.
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Because nostalgia is one of the biggest parts of the hobby.
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And we're all nostalgic for simpler times.
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This has been the first deep dive for a set that I've done for Slabnomics.
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I hope you've enjoyed it, but I really do want to get your feedback on this.
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So leave me some comments, shoot it over to social media as well.
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Let me know what you think of this format.
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If you want more of this, or if you like the more conceptual stuff or the more practical advice stuff, make your opinion known so I can give you the content you love.
00:21:05.860 --> 00:21:12.579
Speaking of that, I had someone ask to see my own collection and what I actually love about the cards that I have.
00:21:12.740 --> 00:21:15.539
Because yes, I don't just go and sell all of my cards.
00:21:15.620 --> 00:21:17.220
I do have a PC myself.
00:21:17.380 --> 00:21:23.140
I was thinking about doing a recording for that, show you guys my cards and what I really value about them.
00:21:23.380 --> 00:21:26.019
Please let me know if you would like me to do that.
00:21:26.180 --> 00:21:28.019
As always, thanks for being here.
00:21:28.180 --> 00:21:30.900
Keep building, and I will talk to you later.
00:00:12.980 --> 00:00:15.060
Hello and welcome to Slabnomics.
00:00:15.300 --> 00:00:22.259
If you haven't been here before, this podcast is aimed to help you make better financial decisions in sports cards and TCG.
00:00:22.420 --> 00:00:29.699
And normally on this channel, I oscillate between philosophical episodes and episodes that are much more practical.
00:00:29.940 --> 00:00:34.820
This balance between the conceptual and the practical is something that I like to keep.
00:00:35.060 --> 00:00:41.939
But as this podcast has now developed over the last year and a half or so, it's time to start spreading out into different forays.
00:00:42.100 --> 00:00:46.739
I have a lot of ideas for some very fun new episodes coming down the pipe.
00:00:46.900 --> 00:00:51.060
And today we're going to kick off Slabnomics deep dives.
00:00:51.219 --> 00:00:59.780
We'll still have the episodes where we talk about theory, and we'll still have the episodes where we talk about concrete ideas, but I want to add the deep dives in.
00:00:59.939 --> 00:01:05.620
And today specifically, I want to talk about a set that I don't think is fully understood by the market.
00:01:05.939 --> 00:01:25.299
This is one of my all-time favorite sets, and I'm going to delve into the history of it for you, show you what the significance is, talk about why it's important both historically and for the actual cards themselves, discuss the math that goes into these sealed boxes and their contents, and just generally talk about why it's special.
00:01:25.540 --> 00:01:31.299
By the end of this episode, hopefully you have an opinion on if it's overrated or underrated.
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And by the end of this episode as well, I'm going to be giving you a sneak peek as to what I believe my next episode will be.
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And I would love to get your feedback down below in the comments when we get to that point.
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So throw me a quick like and let's get the show on the road.
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Everyone knows that the 80s and 90s were the junk wax era.
00:01:49.060 --> 00:01:56.180
Manufacturers for sports cards were printing them out the wazoo because there was a newfound passion returning for sports cards.
00:01:56.340 --> 00:02:05.140
As the printing presses increased their output year after year after year, by the early 90s there was fatigue in the market.
00:02:05.380 --> 00:02:17.780
Collectors were tired of seeing millions of copies of the same card, and the manufacturers knew that some kind of innovation was needed if they were going to keep their cash cow producing.
00:02:17.939 --> 00:02:22.579
Before the mid-90s, the chase cards ended up being error cards.
00:02:22.739 --> 00:02:35.139
Whether it was just a birthday of the player that was wrong, no name printed of the player on the front, or some colorful language on the bottom of a bat, these error cards gave the hobby rarity to chase.
00:02:35.299 --> 00:02:44.579
So in 1993, for baseball and for basketball, we got the first brand new, innovative, crazy new set, Tops Finest.
00:02:44.739 --> 00:02:48.819
These Top's Finest had refractors that we now are very familiar with.
00:02:48.979 --> 00:02:53.299
But when they came out in these early 90s, these refractors were the Cat's pajamas.
00:02:53.699 --> 00:03:02.500
Emboldened by the success of the selling of the packs and boxes for these, the manufacturers decided to push a new product in 1996.
00:03:02.659 --> 00:03:09.619
A product that they were going to be able to sell much more than the$1.29 price point that packs were selling at before.
00:03:09.859 --> 00:03:13.379
Thus, in 1996, Topps Chrome was born.
00:03:13.619 --> 00:03:17.780
Topps Chrome was printed for baseball, basketball, and for football.
00:03:17.939 --> 00:03:20.419
And that's the set we're going to talk about today.
00:03:20.659 --> 00:03:24.500
Specifically, 1996 Topps Chrome NFL set.
00:03:24.659 --> 00:03:33.699
Now you have to understand that after all these years of printing, the manufacturers were concerned that they might not be able to sell this new product.
00:03:34.019 --> 00:03:36.340
This concept was far from a shoe-in.
00:03:36.659 --> 00:03:38.739
Remember that price point I was talking about?
00:03:38.899 --> 00:03:44.819
Trying to ask the market for 4x what they were used to paying is always going to be a pretty tough sell.
00:03:45.060 --> 00:03:50.419
Although now we pay about 4x what hobby boxes were just a few years ago, but I digress.
00:03:50.659 --> 00:04:00.099
Anyways, so the point was they didn't think that this was a slam dog success, they were very wary, and so they didn't print much of the inaugural set for Topps Chrome.
00:04:00.419 --> 00:04:04.259
And the makeup of the set is what is so interesting as well.
00:04:04.819 --> 00:04:08.500
The chase cards for the set were simply silver refractors.
00:04:08.739 --> 00:04:20.740
It was the first time that they'd been put into sets, not topp's finest, and I suppose you could say more specifically, into a set that mirrored perfectly the Topps flagship set itself, at least in terms of design.
00:04:20.980 --> 00:04:27.139
In terms of composition, though, they actually boiled down Top's flagship set list quite a bit.
00:04:27.379 --> 00:04:45.060
The traditional flagship set was 440 cards in the checklist, and the brand new Topps Chrome with its shiny chromium finish had only the bangers, only 165 cards in its checklist, mostly made up of hot incoming rookies as well as tried and true stars.
00:04:45.300 --> 00:04:52.180
Besides the base and the refractors, which I'll get into the rarity of in a second, there were also a few different inserts.
00:04:52.500 --> 00:05:00.020
See, this release coincided with the 40th anniversary of the inaugural Topps football set in 1956.
00:05:00.180 --> 00:05:07.860
So there were many cards that were released as inserts or parallels, really reprints of previous cards for a lot of the players.
00:05:08.100 --> 00:05:22.259
These 40th anniversary cards, as well as some pretty cool inserts with tide turners, and then the yard club inserts that memorialized different milestones in passing, rushing, and receiving, like a thousand yards, 3,000 yards, etc.
00:05:22.580 --> 00:05:30.100
These were all fun parts of the set, but the real nitty-gritty of the set, the real value add, was these silver refractors.
00:05:30.259 --> 00:05:36.100
Now, when we think silver refractors today, we picture something that you can get so many of.
00:05:36.420 --> 00:05:42.980
Even in something like 2018 Topps Chrome Baseball, there were about 5,000 refractors for each of the players.
00:05:43.220 --> 00:05:48.580
Refractors have really become almost base for a lot of collectors in a lot of sets today.
00:05:48.740 --> 00:05:57.860
But 1996 Topps Chrome NFL football is believed to have had a print run of only 150 refractors per player.
00:05:58.100 --> 00:06:06.180
This is something that was said at the time of release, and the population reports roughly confirm this range.
00:06:06.420 --> 00:06:07.780
So remember that number.
00:06:17.939 --> 00:06:24.500
There were two refractors in each box, and these boxes right now, by the way, are about$750.
00:06:25.140 --> 00:06:30.180
I said before the packs were about five bucks, and there were 24 packs in each box.
00:06:30.340 --> 00:06:33.379
So a hobby box was about 120 bucks.
00:06:33.620 --> 00:06:38.259
Now remember, tops didn't know if this new product was going to be successful.
00:06:38.660 --> 00:06:41.620
And at the jump, it actually wasn't.
00:06:42.100 --> 00:06:47.860
A lot of boxes sat on shelves in the late 1996 season when the cards were distributed.
00:06:48.100 --> 00:07:03.860
Topps Ripped, which is an extension of the Topps website that tells some stories of historical things connected to Tops, tells us what actually saved this set from historical obscurity, a timeline which would have probably had the hobby look very different today.
00:07:04.100 --> 00:07:14.020
The site actually says it was Beckett's price guide that really jumpstarted people in early 1997 to start buying up all these boxes sitting on the shelves.
00:07:14.259 --> 00:07:18.259
See the resale market for all of these refractors got hot.
00:07:18.660 --> 00:07:25.939
Arrows were just going up month by month by month on the refractors, people took notice and they started to grab as much as they could.
00:07:26.100 --> 00:07:29.300
So let's talk a little bit about the players in this set.
00:07:29.460 --> 00:07:31.780
Starting, of course, with the rookie class.
00:07:32.020 --> 00:07:44.259
Now, I believe that the biggest reason that Topps Chrome NFL, as opposed to its baseball and basketball counterparts, is undervalued exactly because of its rookie class.
00:07:44.500 --> 00:07:49.620
See in baseball, the 1996 Tops Chrome for Ken Griffey Jr.
00:07:49.939 --> 00:07:59.780
and Derek Jeter aren't really considered rookies, but they're kind of considered first cards for them, and the values that they go for are pretty incredible.
00:08:00.020 --> 00:08:10.259
If you look at 1996 Top Scrum basketball, you of course have the GOAT in Michael Jordan, but you also have a pretty big rookie in Kobe Bryant.
00:08:10.420 --> 00:08:21.300
In that NFL set, though, the biggest rookies that you really have are Marvin Harrison and Jonathan Ogden, who is Baltimore's actually first pick of their entire franchise.
00:08:21.540 --> 00:08:27.220
Sadly, in the top scrum football set, we are missing Terrell Owens and Ray Lewis.
00:08:27.620 --> 00:08:34.100
They would have bolstered that rookie class, and maybe the top scrum NFL set would have been much better for it long term.
00:08:34.259 --> 00:08:41.539
As it stands, we have Harrison, we have Ogden, we have Keyshawn Johnson and Eddie George, to name a few.
00:08:41.779 --> 00:08:46.420
But the real strength of the checklist is in the legends that are already veterans.
00:08:46.659 --> 00:08:51.460
You have two of the best running backs to ever play the game in Barry Sanders and Emmett Smith.
00:08:51.620 --> 00:08:59.860
And in particular, Barry Sanders did not have a lot of cards because his career was pretty short and it was right smack in the middle of the junk wax era.
00:09:00.180 --> 00:09:10.259
You also had some of the best quarterbacks, absolute legends to play the game, Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Dan Marino, and even Steve Young.
00:09:10.420 --> 00:09:13.379
And you can't forget a guy named Jerry Rice.
00:09:13.539 --> 00:09:19.220
So this first set of Tops Chrome had a packed checklist, just not that much of a rookie class.
00:09:19.379 --> 00:09:29.940
If you've been a longtime follower of Slabnomics, you know that my rule of thumb is that rookie cards are about 10 times more valuable than their other years of cards on an apples to apples basis.
00:09:30.180 --> 00:09:37.300
This is why when people talk about sets, they always start with the rookie class, because it's 10 times more valuable than just a regular card.
00:09:37.460 --> 00:09:52.740
But I think even though the rookie class of this 1996 NFL set might not be the strongest, the fact that it is the inaugural set, the fact that it is the first, always is going to give it a historical bump and make it relevant.
00:09:52.899 --> 00:09:58.899
For the same reason that we like the rookie card of players, we like the rookie card of sets.
00:09:59.060 --> 00:10:03.060
It's really the most pure manifestation of that set design.
00:10:03.220 --> 00:10:05.060
And you always remember your first.
00:10:05.220 --> 00:10:17.139
So speaking of design, the design of these cards is a classic kind of honeycomb texture surrounded by a border that has the picture of the player bleeding into the edges.
00:10:17.460 --> 00:10:19.700
I absolutely love the design of this thing.
00:10:19.860 --> 00:10:24.180
I think it's so pure and it's so simple yet so detailed in the photo.
00:10:24.259 --> 00:10:27.460
It's a very upfront, close photo for most of these guys.
00:10:27.620 --> 00:10:37.860
And their action shots, wearing full uniforms, except the rookies who a lot of times are wearing training camp kind of garb with their name on their helmet, or their actual draft day photo.
00:10:38.019 --> 00:10:40.420
The Barry Sanders photo is sweet.
00:10:40.659 --> 00:10:42.980
So we've talked a little bit about the design of the set.
00:10:43.139 --> 00:10:47.300
We talked about the rarity of these refractors at only 150 apiece.
00:10:47.460 --> 00:10:52.420
Let's talk about the print run for the actual set before we start diving into some of the player populations.
00:10:52.580 --> 00:11:08.259
If there's 150 total refractors and there's 165 players in the checklist, we know that there's two refractors per box, and we know that the total amount of the refractors for the checklist is 24,750.
00:11:08.420 --> 00:11:10.820
That's 165 times 150.
00:11:11.060 --> 00:11:17.460
Then, if there's two of those per box, we divide that by two, and that tells us exactly how many boxes were made.
00:11:17.620 --> 00:11:24.899
So the print run for 1996 Topps Chrome NFL is 12,375 boxes.
00:11:25.139 --> 00:11:30.340
If you're used to the modern equivalent of thinking about this, it's usually measured in cases.
00:11:30.580 --> 00:11:32.340
That's 1,000 cases.
00:11:32.659 --> 00:11:36.500
So remember it was 120 bucks per box.
00:11:36.659 --> 00:11:39.139
So these print runs were tiny.
00:11:39.539 --> 00:11:50.180
And not only were the print runs tiny, but the way that these were manufactured has made the survival rate of these cards in high condition almost microscopic.
00:11:50.420 --> 00:11:58.659
I took a look at the top nine players in terms of value for these refractors because I wanted to get an idea of what all the populations and gem rates were.
00:11:58.820 --> 00:12:04.500
Let me read to you the population of PSA 10s for these top 9 value cards.
00:12:04.659 --> 00:12:06.340
And it's in no particular order.
00:12:06.580 --> 00:12:08.740
Troy Aikman, pop 2.
00:12:08.980 --> 00:12:12.100
Brett Favre, pop 4, which I find apropos.
00:12:12.259 --> 00:12:15.139
John Elway, pop 2 on the PSA 10.
00:12:15.300 --> 00:12:19.220
Jerry Rice has a bunch of 10s, he has 5 of them.
00:12:19.460 --> 00:12:22.340
Emmett Smith comes in at 3 on the PSA 10.
00:12:22.500 --> 00:12:28.019
Jonathan Ogden only has two, and Marvin Harrison comes far and away with the most.
00:12:28.259 --> 00:12:30.820
He has 10 PSA 10s.
00:12:31.060 --> 00:12:36.580
Notable players that do not have a single gem, Dan Marino and Barry Sanders.
00:12:36.740 --> 00:12:45.700
And the total population for all of these for graded are usually in the 30s to 60s, even for these, the most legendary, iconic, popular players.
00:12:45.860 --> 00:12:50.340
And those are populations across all graders in the 30s to 60s.
00:12:50.500 --> 00:12:57.860
Now one thing I do have to call out because we are assuming this 150 print run for all of the refractor numbers.
00:12:58.019 --> 00:13:04.100
If you look at Marvin Harrison's, you'll see he actually has 216 on his total pop for graded.
00:13:04.420 --> 00:13:09.779
A significant amount of these are going to be cross grades, retries, etc.
00:13:10.019 --> 00:13:10.259
etc.
00:13:10.659 --> 00:13:17.220
I think it's certainly possible that a lot of the Beckett's, which were over 80, could have been retried into PSA.
00:13:17.620 --> 00:13:19.539
Same thing goes for the SGCs.
00:13:19.860 --> 00:13:29.139
So given that a lot of the populations are sitting in the 30s to 60s and the gems are 2, 3, etc., you can imagine that these are pretty low gem rates.
00:13:29.300 --> 00:13:34.580
Aside from the couple 0% gem rates that we have, most are hovering in the 7s to 8%.
00:13:35.139 --> 00:13:42.659
So not only are these cards exceedingly rare for a first set, but they're incredibly condition sensitive.
00:13:42.980 --> 00:13:54.980
A lot of the issues in Topps Chrome for these early sets are print lines that you'll see on the front, especially prevalent on the borders, and centering being all over the place.
00:13:55.300 --> 00:14:01.060
Add to that the well-known green hueing effects that a lot of the early Tops Chrome has.
00:14:01.220 --> 00:14:07.060
I haven't found this myself too much in the NFL cards, but I also don't buy the ones that I do see the tint on.
00:14:07.220 --> 00:14:13.220
And adding up all these factors, you can see why these gem rates are so tough on something that's already so rare.
00:14:13.460 --> 00:14:18.580
Jerry Rice has a massive market, and he has five refractors in a PSA 10.
00:14:18.740 --> 00:14:27.060
So given all of this, given the rarity, the historical significance, etc., how much do you expect that these cards are worth?
00:14:27.220 --> 00:14:34.980
Especially some of those names that I mentioned, like Jerry Rice, Barry Sanders, Favre, Marino, Elway, their cards sell really well.
00:14:35.220 --> 00:14:43.700
But I can't believe the kind of prices that these go for in terms of how low they are with this rarity and with the significance of this set.
00:14:43.940 --> 00:14:52.580
Of those seven players I mentioned that have gems, six of them fall into the$2,000 to$3,000 range to get a PSA 10.
00:14:52.659 --> 00:14:59.700
Now these very rarely sell, so we're mostly going off card letter values here, but most of these have a sale in the past six months or so.
00:14:59.860 --> 00:15:09.860
I will say that the one exception that is pretty expensive is the Jerry Rice, which is really a testament to how massive his market is as the GOAT of all wide receivers.
00:15:10.019 --> 00:15:16.019
Rice's PSA 10 last went for$6,500, and I was the one that bought it.
00:15:16.340 --> 00:15:24.820
Elways Pop 2 has no sales ever, and hopefully someday we'll get a Barry Sanders or Dan Marino PSA 10 and see what those go for.
00:15:25.060 --> 00:15:31.620
The 9 for Sanders goes for about$2,500, so I'd imagine that the 10 would be something like 12 to 15k somewhere in there.
00:15:31.779 --> 00:15:37.379
When I talk about these values, I'm curious if you guys are surprised at them being high or low.
00:15:37.539 --> 00:15:42.180
I've looked at these for so long and really hunted a lot of them down already.
00:15:42.420 --> 00:15:52.180
So I think I've kind of gotten over any sticker shock that I had at any point, especially considering how much I value low population and tough grade cards.
00:15:52.420 --> 00:15:54.340
But you tell me in the comments and let me know.
00:15:54.420 --> 00:15:54.980
What do you think?
00:15:55.139 --> 00:15:56.980
Are they undervalued, overvalued?
00:15:57.139 --> 00:15:58.180
Are they just right?
00:15:58.340 --> 00:16:04.019
And do you think it's enough for the set to be the first set to override maybe a weak rookie class?
00:16:04.180 --> 00:16:06.500
I'll definitely read all the comments, so let me know.
00:16:06.740 --> 00:16:21.300
So now that we've gone over some of the pricing, talked about the population for these players in their cards, I want to do a little exercise with you that I think is an interesting way to expand your mind when thinking about trying to get cards and ascertaining what their true value is.
00:16:21.460 --> 00:16:23.700
There's two ways to get cards.
00:16:23.940 --> 00:16:28.340
You can either buy singles or you can buy sealed and try and pull one, right?
00:16:28.500 --> 00:16:34.340
At the end of the day, you're buying either the chance to pull it or one that someone already pulled.
00:16:34.500 --> 00:16:47.139
So sometimes when I'm trying to look at cards and see if I really want to pay up for them, like I did for that Jerry Rice, I find it useful to frame the idea of what would it take for me to go pull this card?
00:16:47.300 --> 00:16:50.740
We know all the numbers, so we can calculate what that would be.
00:16:50.899 --> 00:16:59.700
And in a set like this, where you literally just have base or refractor, it really is the refractors driving most of the value of that box.
00:17:00.019 --> 00:17:02.500
So let me run through how I think of it.
00:17:02.659 --> 00:17:05.940
When I bought the Jerry Rice, I paid$6,500.
00:17:06.659 --> 00:17:12.579
When I'm trying to buy something like a first set, I'm gonna do what you're gonna do as well.
00:17:13.139 --> 00:17:14.899
First look for the goats.
00:17:15.059 --> 00:17:19.299
And of this set, there is one player that is a goat of his position.
00:17:19.620 --> 00:17:24.740
Unquestioned holds all the records, just checks every box, and that's Jerry Rice.
00:17:24.980 --> 00:17:32.980
So let's say I don't want to pay 6.5k, and I think that I can just buy boxes and pull a Jerry Rice refractor.
00:17:33.299 --> 00:17:36.019
Because at some point I will, right?
00:17:36.180 --> 00:17:40.259
Now we said before that there were just over 12,000 hobby boxes made.
00:17:40.500 --> 00:17:42.579
12,375.
00:17:42.819 --> 00:17:54.500
And the question is if I want to buy enough boxes that I will statistically guarantee that I'm going to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, how many boxes is that going to take?
00:17:55.140 --> 00:18:01.140
Well, there's two refractors in each box, and there's 165 on that checklist.
00:18:01.380 --> 00:18:07.460
So with average luck, if I buy 83 boxes, I'll have one refractor per player.
00:18:07.620 --> 00:18:10.980
Of course, the distribution is going to change based off your luck.
00:18:11.220 --> 00:18:16.180
But just talking about math, 83 boxes should get you to a Jerry Rice refractor.
00:18:16.339 --> 00:18:19.539
The boxes are$750 apiece.
00:18:19.700 --> 00:18:28.660
So if I want to be able to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, I would have to invest$62,250 to do so.
00:18:28.900 --> 00:18:30.420
Sounds like a lot of money, right?
00:18:30.660 --> 00:18:38.339
But you also have to remember that the Jerry Rice refractor that I'm going to pull out of one of those boxes might not be a PSA 10.
00:18:38.579 --> 00:18:42.660
And in fact, it's very unlikely that it is.
00:18:42.900 --> 00:18:45.299
Rice's gem rate is 9.4%.
00:18:46.019 --> 00:18:57.460
So if I not only want to pull a Jerry Rice refractor, but I want to get one that's statistically a PSA 10, it's going to take roughly$620,000 to do so.
00:18:57.620 --> 00:19:07.220
Oh, and by the way, I would expect that the gem rates would actually get worse over time because those boxes sit around in conditions that are not ideal.
00:19:07.380 --> 00:19:11.779
Maybe they're wet, maybe they get oxidized, maybe they stick together.
00:19:12.019 --> 00:19:18.579
So I would not be surprised in the slightest if that Jerry Rice population never even hit 10.
00:19:18.819 --> 00:19:23.539
This is how rare it is to get the perfect condition card for this set.
00:19:23.779 --> 00:19:29.700
I don't think any of these players are going to get to 15 on their PSA 10 populations.
00:19:29.860 --> 00:19:32.420
So by now, I'm sure you've gotten it.
00:19:32.579 --> 00:19:34.579
It's a historically relevant set.
00:19:34.740 --> 00:19:39.860
It's full of legends, it's a small checklist, and it's got low gem rates.
00:19:40.019 --> 00:19:42.819
So the supply side, everything stacks up.
00:19:42.980 --> 00:19:50.900
But the real question in your mind, as it is in mine, has to be: will this set continue to grow in popularity and demand?
00:19:51.059 --> 00:19:56.660
This is mere conjecture, but if you want my opinion, I am a firm believer that it will.
00:19:56.900 --> 00:20:06.339
I believe that Topps Chrome, every time it comes back, every time Topps gets the license again, it renews the interest in those older sets of that brand.
00:20:06.579 --> 00:20:13.299
And the more and more people find out about how hard it is to get these cards, the more they just disappear.
00:20:13.539 --> 00:20:20.900
In an age where Pokemon cards have 50,000 gems within a year, we're talking about an entirely different era.
00:20:21.140 --> 00:20:23.460
An era that a lot of us really miss.
00:20:25.059 --> 00:20:36.500
I think sets that are timeless, sets that are simple yet elegant, that don't need 65 different parallels, I think these sets will always be something that we come back to.
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Because nostalgia is one of the biggest parts of the hobby.
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And we're all nostalgic for simpler times.
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This has been the first deep dive for a set that I've done for Slabnomics.
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I hope you've enjoyed it, but I really do want to get your feedback on this.
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So leave me some comments, shoot it over to social media as well.
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Let me know what you think of this format.
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If you want more of this, or if you like the more conceptual stuff or the more practical advice stuff, make your opinion known so I can give you the content you love.
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Speaking of that, I had someone ask to see my own collection and what I actually love about the cards that I have.
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Because yes, I don't just go and sell all of my cards.
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I do have a PC myself.
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I was thinking about doing a recording for that, show you guys my cards and what I really value about them.
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Please let me know if you would like me to do that.
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As always, thanks for being here.
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Keep building, and I will talk to you later.
