Dynasty Baseball Pickups: Cristian Mena Deep Dive, and Other Prospects to Add

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Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty
Baseball Pickups podcast. We are brought to
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you by Prospects Live, where there
is always some really exciting things going on,
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including a recent update to the Dynasty
Top one thousand list, which now
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includes mine and Taylor's rankings for the
first time. There's also a Prospect Battle
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article that I worked on with our
colleague Ryan Epperson, where we discussed Mariner's
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prospect Typete, as well as the
first editions of our Dynasty Baseball Pickups written
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article. Taylor's was just released this
past Thursday. Mine will be coming this
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weekend, so be sure to subscribe
to Prospects Live for as little as five
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dollars to gain access to those articles
in which we discuss even more players to
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pick up in your Dynasty leagues.
But before we get into the rest of
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the episode, Taylor, how are
you doing today? I'm doing great,
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man. It was awesome to see
the full, almost the full minor leagues
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going yesterday. I made about twenty
million roster moves last night to pick up
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interesting prospects. That was a lot
of fun. Yeah, I was quickly
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reminded this morning of how active you
are at the start of the minor league
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season. That's something that I forgot
about over the last three hundred and sixty
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five days here, but it was
good to see again. But speaking of
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things that we have going on at
Prospects Live, one thing that was really
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cool to see recently because it ties
in really well to one of the players
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we want to discuss today was our
colleague Tom Gates wrote this awesome article on
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Christian Mana or Mina. We're not
one hundred percent sure how to pronounce his
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name. We're gonna go with Christian
Mayna today, but we actually have Tom
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Gates with us to discuss that article. So Tom, how are you doing
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doing great? Thanks for having me
guys, Absolutely yeah, really excited to
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have you on to discuss this.
Like I said, it ties in really
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well to one of the guys we
want to talk about today. So before
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we dive in to the player himself, Christian Mayna, I want to ask
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you what gave you the idea for
this article and why Christian Mana. One
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of the things I'm I I guess
is one of my strengths is I have
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a lot of ideas. Now I
can't say that they are all good,
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but I have them and sometimes I
run with them. And I started doing
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scouting reports for recent prospects live this
offseason, and then I have shifted my
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attention more to the dynasty fantasy side
of things, and I thought this would
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be a good combination to do and
kind of give the readers what it's like
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beyond the stat line, because this
game is actually like his stat line is
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like so deceiving because if you read
the article and then you look at the
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stat line, it doesn't match right. And so I think as avid fantasy
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we know not to just look at
the numbers, like look at beyond it,
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and this kind of gives the readers
that view. Yeah, I love
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that. I think the key thing
you said there, like, like you
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mentioned, it's not all about the
stat line. We can get really bogged
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down in that sometimes, but the
live looks are super super valuable as well.
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And I think that's an awesome concept
that you've put to paper here.
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And for those that haven't read it
yet, this just dropped a couple of
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days ago, if I'm not mistaken, correct correct. Yeah, So let's
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get into the subject of that article. Now, why did you choose Christian
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mana and why don't you tell us
a little bit about what you thought about
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him. Sure, So he popped
up on the p Live Minus leaderboard last
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year and I was really intrigued.
Jumped on him in one of my fantasy
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leagues, so I'm invested. And
the trade to Arizona this offseason. I
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don't know what the White Sox are
doing, but I was happy about it
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because in the in the Diamondback system, I feel like he's going to progress
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more and they're going to develop him
more. So I was excited about that.
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So he took on the Las Vegas
Aviators, which is in the A
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system, a couple of guys in
the lineup that you've probably heard of,
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and he My overall impression is doesn't
really command his pitches, especially his fastball,
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and it's not high v lo either. He's sitting like ninety two ninety
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three, and when he misses by
a lot like not competitive. They're not
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competitive pitches. So wasn't really that
impressed the first couple innings and was a
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little disappointed as a fantasy owner,
But then he started breaking out his curveball
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and it's nasty. And then he
started spotting his slider and that's really good
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too, So that's a good combination
of breaking pitches, and so I can
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see why he was hitting the live
minus leaderboard last year because when those two
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pitches are on, he's getting a
lot of swings and misses. The fastball
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needs a lot of work. The
command two of all this pitch is probably
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except for the curveball, at least
in this game. That's what I saw.
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And then he started throwing like a
sinker later in the game too,
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which was a nice change of pace
off of the fastball. It was only
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like two to three miles an hour
slower than the fastball, with some vertical
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movement on it, but he was
getting swings and misses on it, which
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he only got one swing and miss
on the fastball. So overall, going
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forward, you know his line from
the game, and this is this is
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kind of like why I wrote the
article. At five innings, pitch,
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two hits, six strikeouts, one
walk, you're like, oh wow,
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more than a strikeout per inning,
only one walk, gave up two hits,
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Like that's a pretty impressive start.
But when you read the detailed outline
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I had, he had a pickoff
play, a couple double plays, a
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lot of hard hit balls right at
people, and so when you watch the
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game or read the article, you're
saying, oh, it sounds like this
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guy got lucky. He had a
lot of three ball counts to one counts
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that he came back, and that
ace hitters were pretty aggressive, so he
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only ended up with one walk after
being behind most of the batters. So
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I see the potential here. He's
got a lot of work to do.
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I know, he just pitched I
think last night, and again the line
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looks decent and I'm intrigued to go
watch it to see to see how he
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really did. And I don't know
if there's going to be another article that
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comes out about him or not.
But yeah, so just overall thoughts,
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potential just needs work. I'm impressed
that he's twenty one and he's at triple
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A again, like he finished the
year at triple A last year or so.
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He's really young for that level.
Yeah. I think that's the most
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encouraging thing for me, is how
quickly he progressed through the levels in the
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White Sox system and now to see
him in what we think of typically as
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a much much better organization in Arizona, still performing at least on the surface
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at the high levels of the miners
here in Triple A, and I'm actually
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yeah, looking at the stat line
from his most recent start against the Giant's
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Triple A affiliate, he went six
innings and it looks like maybe some of
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that good luck that he had against
Oakland's affiliate shifted to the other side.
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He still only gave up one earned
run in those six innings, but it
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was now three walks and just two
strikeouts. So maybe some of what you
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were saying kind of came to fruition
here against the Giants' Triple A affiliate,
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and the control was a little bit
more of an issue and they didn't bite
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out of the zone nearly as much. But Taylor, I want to swing
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it over to you for a second
because you also just discussed Mina on your
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first written article published here at Prospects
Live. So what do you see in
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Christian Mina and why should we be
picking him up in our dynasty leagues?
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Yeah, So, like you both
mentioned, the trade from the White Sox
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over to the Diamondbacks really caught my
eye because many as a guy who the
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talent is there, you could definitely
see the upside he might have as a
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fantasy starter. The numbers overall don't
look that great, but as you both
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mentioned, he's super young for the
level twenty one at Triple A and it's
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been pushed aggressively by the White Sox. So my line of thinking was,
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this is somebody going to a better
development organization who got off to a nice
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start there, and I started to
dig in similar to Tom, and I
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really appreciated Tom's article because I was
writing up many at the same time that
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Tom came up with his article,
and so it was really cool to get
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that in depth view of his start
and really get the additional context because I'm
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pretty open about the fact that I'm
not great at scouting. That's not my
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strength. So being able to kind
of follow along throughout the start and see
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what Tom saw was really cool.
But that being said, I was a
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little disappointed because reports from late February
after the trade had him at ninety four
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to ninety six in spring training,
and so far in both of his starts,
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both the one that that Tom profiled
and the one that happened last night
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on Friday, April fifth, he
was averaging ninety two point six and that's
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actually pretty much exactly what he averaged
last year. As well, so that
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bump and velo hasn't happened yet.
You could maybe attribute some of it to
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cold weather, because it was pretty
cold in this first start. I think
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it was low fifties and then last
night's start was only thirty five degrees,
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so very cold. But at the
same time, it is in line with
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what he did last year, particularly
at TRIPAA, So I'm hopeful the velocity
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picks up. And Tom did a
great job of kind of profiling like how
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he really kind of needs that velocity
to pick up for that fastball to be
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more effective because it's just not that
effective. And to your point, you
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mentioned that the three walks last night
versus just the two strikeouts, but that
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slider again was a huge weapon.
So he had a forty seven percent with
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rate on the slider last night,
forty six percent in the first start.
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That curveball that Tom mentioned, he
only threw ten percent of the time last
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night, which is kind of interesting
because he was more than double that in
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his first start. Maybe they had
something to do with the weather. What
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are your thoughts, Tom, Yeah, the curve I haven't seen the start
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yet, but the curveball his first
outing, he broke it out later fifty
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percent with rate and then slider,
like you said, forty six percent with
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rate in his first start. So
the slider and the curveball are so good,
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but it's just like, can you
get the fastball going? If he
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does, that is a huge step
forward. What it's like If he does,
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like, it's not, it's easier
said than done. Yeah, if
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he could hit that ninety four ninety
six on the fastball, then that's really
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exciting. But yeah, with it
just sitting mid ninety two, it's not
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not as great. And one thing
I will say, and this is probably
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has something to do with a thirty
five degree weather, but I noticed he
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gave up a decent amount of hard
contact in his first start last night.
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His average exit velocity was eighty two
point nine. That was per hour,
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so he gave up no hard contact
at all, which, again, thirty
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five degrees probably hard to swig a
bat that cold of weather. It's tough
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on everybody. But I'm intrigued enough
that I think he's worth grabbing in leagues
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of two hundred plus prospects. I
don't think you have to invest a lot
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of fab in him. The hot
start is nice to see the new August
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promising, but as Tom mentioned,
he's got a little ways to go,
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and I think it's all going to
come down to how much he can develop
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that fastball and improve the command as
well. Yeah, so real quick,
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Tom, last thing I want to
ask you. I'm going to put you
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on the spot just a little bit
here, because I am looking at the
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grades that we have given Christian Mania
on his pitches us here a Prospects Live
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and currently we do have that curveball
that you liked so much leading the way
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with a sixty grade, But then
we have his fastball slider and change up
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all with a fifty grade and a
forty five on the command. I know
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it can be really hard to judge
based on just one outing, but would
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you say that those grades are fairly
accurate or is there anything that off of
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one look you would want to change. Again, it's a fifty grade on
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the fastball, slider and change up, a sixty on the curve and a
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forty five on the command. So
just based on one outing that I've seen,
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But again, it seems like last
night it was kind of the same
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thing. I'd bump the fastball down, I might bump the command down a
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little bit too. But also I
want to look into this change up because
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I was having a discussion with some
of the guys in the discord with recent
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and some of the other scouts on
how do you classify a change up like
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a change up? By definition,
I'm thinking is you're changing the speed right,
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and it typically has some vertical movement
on it. He's throwing the change
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up, and that's what Savant has
at ninety miles an hour, which would
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make sense if he threw a fastball
at one hundred and you're seeing a ten
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mile an hour difference. But we're
seeing a two to three mile an hour
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difference on the change up right.
So that's why I kind of call it
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a sinker. So I almost want
to change the change up to a sinker
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too. And I liked it.
I saw it eight times in the first
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outing. It had one swing,
didn't have a lot of misses, but
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again it was something different. I
gave a different look. He came out
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with it late, So I think
I would reclassify the change up as a
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sinker. I would bump the fastball
down, and I probably would bump the
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command down right now. But I
love the curve ball in the slide has
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got some potential too, so I
think I would keep those the same.
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The slider's currently a fifty in our
grades. Would you say that's maybe a
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tick low at the moment or does
that sound good still? I think it's
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good. I mean, he had
thirteen, he uses a lot. He
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broke it out before he broke the
curveball out, which was interesting because I
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think his curveball is his best pitch. So I wonder I wonder if he
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would be more effective if he started
out using the curveball earlier and then really
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had pitchers guessing, and then maybe
does the fastball become less hittable. So
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you said the slider was at a
fifty, Yes, it's a fifty right
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now in our grades. I mean, like, I wouldn't mind bumping it
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up, but I think I would
just want to see more of it before
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I make the commitment. I know
you're putting me on the spot here,
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absolutely. Yeah. It's always tough
to make these judgments off of one look
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and on the spot when you're not
expecting a question like this, So I
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really appreciate you playing ball with me
here on these questions. I tried to
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bounce around and not really give you
a straight answer there. But if you
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look at my article his last at
bat, his last batter that he faced,
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I got a jiff of every pitch
he threw, and like that like
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shows the upside of him. Where
he threw the curveball to start out the
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bat and the hitter had no idea, like didn't pick it up and it
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laying it in the zone, and
he does a great job commanding the curve
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where it's at the knees or it's
like lower, so if somebody's going to
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make contact, I'm not sure what
they're going to do with it. Then
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he followed it up with a fastball
right at the letters and it was only
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at ninety two. But I think
because the hitter just saw the curveball at
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almost the like coming out at the
same release point that the fastball played,
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because one it was located perfectly right
at the top of the zone, but
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two would follow with the curveball,
and then the slider got the swing and
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miss on the third one. And
when he's got it, it starts in
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the middle of the zone, breaks
away from the righties, down and out
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and there's not much they can do
there. So when you look at that,
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Jeff, You're like, ooh,
Okay, this guy's got something right,
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but he's just got to put it
together and he got to command it.
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So what I'm hearing is you're seeing
a lot of potential here and that
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probably drives the excitement behind you know
why we like him in this Arizona Org
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a little bit more now, right
that. Yeah, that's correct. I
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don't know how well somebody can figure
out how to command their pitches consistently,
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Like everybody's different, so but we
I think we've identified like the issue,
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and like that's kind of why we're
excited about him, Like we know what
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he's got to do, Like can
he go do it right? So like
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that's why I think everybody kind of
sees the potent. Absolutely. Yeah,
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some really encouraging stuff then, despite
maybe not loving what we saw in that
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live look. But Tom, again, thank you so much for joining us
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to discuss Christian Mayna. I know
you've got some other awesome stuff coming out
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in the coming days, weeks,
months here, maybe some more live looks
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like you just did on Christian Mayna. I know you've been working on the
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Daily Sheets as well, and for
the first time you're going to have your
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rankings included in the hopefully upcoming update
to the Prospects Live overall prospect rankings.
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So why don't you tell us a
little bit about that before we let you
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go here? Yeah? Thanks.
I'm excited about this because I feel like
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this has been a work in progress
for like years as I have been diving
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into Dynasty because I watch a lot
of video, I do a lot of
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Scotter Reports, but I've never compiled
the list together. So I feel like
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I feel like I've got it in
my head, but I've never like put
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it down on like paper, but
like no one needs his paper anymore,
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but like it just sounds better than
on a computer sheet Excel whatnot. But
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so I recently did my top sixty
this week. I'm excited. I'm going
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to give you like pull back the
curtain here, and I think I'm going
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to be higher on these three guys
than anybody else. I got Spencer Jones
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at sixteen, I got Zachveen at
thirty one, and I got Blake Done
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at fifty three. I love that. I absolutely love that Blake dun call.
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I am a huge Blake dunfan,
as Taylor can attest to, I
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talk about him, probably more than
I need to, but I love that.
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I'm a huge Spencer ES fan,
so I'm liking that as well.
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Thank you. So the thing about
these three guys power speed, and there's
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like a narrative with like all three
of them. I'm like, why they're
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maybe not up in the majors right
now and like producing, but like I
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can see the road it takes for
them to get there. And I think
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by year's end, like these three
guys, like I'm hoping will be higher
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than where I have them ranked.
So I wrote a zach Vie in piece.
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I've written a couple of this offseason. I wrote one earlier in March
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that I'm very excited about and yeah, I'm ready to watch him go this
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year when he's healthy. That is
fantastic. Tom, again, really great
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to have you on the episode.
Thank you so much for giving your thoughts
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on christian Mania. Can't wait to
see everything else that you have in the
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works. Thank you so much for
joining us. Thanks Kyle, Thanks Taylor,
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Thanks Tom. Have a good day, Tom, see you later,
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all right, And with that,
Taylor, you and I will continue on
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now. We've got three more names
to discuss. But before we do that.
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Is there anything else that you want
to mention about Christian Mania before we
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wrap him up? No, just
that I think he's just an interesting pickup.
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Like we all mentioned, there's a
lot of potential there, but just
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know that he's got some work to
do. Yeah. Absolutely, He's a
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guy that I was kind of in
on at about this time last year and
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then just didn't really see that progression
in the White Sox system. After the
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trade, I added another sharer too, because I got encouraged again. So
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it's really good to see that others
have sort of the same opinion where there's
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obviously some work to do, but
there is some upside here. Yeah,
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just for context real quick, with
that being said, I have eleven Dynasty
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leagues and I have one share of
Manna, and I'm happy with that.
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I want one share of him,
but he's not a name that I'm trying
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to acquire any everywhere or anything that. Yeah, i think I've got two
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shares now after like I said,
acquiring a couple of this offseason, and
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again I'm satisfied with that. If
if we see more encouraging signs going forward,
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awesome, maybe I'll try to add
some more. But I think he
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is owned in most of our leagues
because this is a player. We play
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in a lot of very deep prospect
leagues in our fantasy leagues, many of
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which we play in together, so
he is owned in a lot of them
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out there. But I think a
noteworthy name for sure. Where would you
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say we need to be thinking about
adding him if as a fantasy owner we
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notice he's on the wire, Yeah, I think with anything two hundred prospects
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or more. Like you said,
we're in a lot of three hundred plus
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prospect leagues and he's pretty much rostered
everywhere. We had him ranked at two
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forty six in our last prospect list
update. So I think when you're getting
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into you know, two hundred or
so, so you want to take a
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shot on him because he's probably better
than maybe some of the prospects you might
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have at the back end of your
roster. And I think there's enough hype
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on him for as young as he
is in the trade do a better organization
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that he's already has two really nice
starts under his spelt. I mean,
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he's got a zero point eight two
ERA, so if he comes out and
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has another nice start, gets more, K's less walks, your window for
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grabbing him in those kind of medium
sized leagues is closing. So I definitely
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think he's one to speculate on,
and that's why I included him in the
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article. There Absolutely yes some really
good insight there, but from a picture
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that we see some upside with to
a hitter that I'm going to bring to
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the table here with just tremendous upside. I want to talk about Owen case
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for a minute, because this is
a guy who really he should be owned
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everywhere already. We have him ranked
for fifth currently on the Prospects Live overall
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rankings. If he is out there
in any of your dynasty leagues, you
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need to go grab him immediately,
because when we're talking about Owen Casey,
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we are talking about just tremendous raw
power. There's maybe seventy eighty grade raw
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power here and at p Prospects Live
we grade his in game power as a
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sixty, so it is a comfortable
plus power tool. And the power hasn't
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shown up a ton just yet in
twenty twenty four here, but I'm not
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too worried about that because this is
a kid that just crushes baseballs. He
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in twenty twenty three. In Double
A, he slashed two eighty nine three
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ninety eight five nineteen with twenty two
home runs and seven stolen bases in a
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little bit over four hundred at bats. So far this season, he's slashing
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three sixty four eight eighty four for
eighty again, no home runs to speak
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of, yet no stolen bases.
But you know, this is, as
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I mentioned, a guy with just
tremendous raw power, and he has no
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problem handling premium velocity. That being
said, he can be susceptible to swinging
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through some slow breaking balls at times, but he's also shown an ability to
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adjust to how pitchers are attacking him
and do damage on pitches that have given
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him fits. So it's really encouraging
to see that he's being able to do
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that. That being said, the
strikeout rates can still be concerning at times.
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It's a thirty two percent strikeout rate
so far this year, despite the
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really strong numbers. It was a
thirty one percent strikeout rate last season,
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and that kind of falls in line
with what he's done throughout his career.
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It's no no better than a twenty
eight and a half percent strikeout rate at
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any level at any age, but
even with that, He's yet to put
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up a below average season based on
WRC plus, and most of his seasons
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are well above average, and I
think that really speaks to the damage he
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can do with the power in his
bat. What do you think of Owen
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Casey here, Taylor, Yeah,
I'm a big fan of his. You
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mentioned the raw power, just to
kind of put that in perspective. He
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had a max EV of one p
seventeen, which is just insaners. Yeah,
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his ninetieth percentile EV last season,
I believe was over one ten,
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So just hits the ball insanely hard. Like you mentioned, it hasn't really
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translated this year. Is his EV
this year is just eighty five point eight,
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which is kind of crazy considering how
much he's known for his power.
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00:25:49.240 --> 00:25:53.039
But I think that's just small sample
aberration. I think he's definitely going to
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show that power later on. One
thing I will mention that you had brought
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up as well is just a k
rate, and that's really what's going to
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hold him back, because he has
never had a k rate under twenty eight
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percent at any minor league level.
Last year it was fairly high, but
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some of that was from the TACKI
ball in double A. After the Tacki
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ball, he only had a twenty
seven point one percent k rate the rest
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of the year, which was really
good to see and part of the reason
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why I think his value boosted so
high towards the end of the year and
349
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through the offseason this year in dynasty
leagues, but that k rate in the
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00:26:27.319 --> 00:26:30.519
small sample the early going is back
over thirty percent at thirty two point three
351
00:26:30.559 --> 00:26:33.319
percent, so I think he's always
going to strike out a lot. The
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00:26:33.359 --> 00:26:37.000
good thing is that he also walks
a lot, so it's at sixteen point
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one percent this year. He's never
had a walk rate under eleven percent,
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00:26:41.480 --> 00:26:45.000
so I'm kind of seeing him as
a big time power bat with some average
355
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concerns and good OBP. So I
kind of think this is a similar statistical
356
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profile to a former Cubs prospect in
Kyle Schwarber, where you might not really
357
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love the batting average, but he's
going to perform up in an OBP league
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and he's going to have ass of
power. The other thing I will say
359
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is there's a bit of a logjam
there with outfield currently full of in happ
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say Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, and
then you've got PCA and Alex Canario waiting
361
00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:15.200
in the wings, So there is
a question of how and when he'll break
362
00:27:15.240 --> 00:27:18.599
into that lineup as he's knocking on
the door there at Triple A. But
363
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there's a lot to like here for
sure, and I definitely think, as
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you mentioned, he should be rostered
pretty much universally at this point. Yeah.
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I think that's a really good call
out on the playing time concerns in
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that crowded Cubs outfield because to me, despite the concerning strikeout rates, that's
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the biggest thing holding him back right
now is how and when does he get
368
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his shot because they have already brought
up guys like pie Crow, Armstrong and
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00:27:45.839 --> 00:27:51.799
Canario. Though they aren't there right
now, there's a good chance that they
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get a shot before Casey does if
they need someone to fill in the outfield
371
00:27:56.680 --> 00:28:02.599
there. So I wonder if we
see Casey this season, as much as
372
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I would love to, I wouldn't
be shocked if we don't see him until
373
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twenty twenty five. Yeah, or
we just see him kind of in a
374
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small sample, similar to what we
saw with the other two outfielders I mentioned.
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Yeah. Absolutely, But again,
this is a guy that should be
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owned everywhere. If he isn't,
I'd be willing to put in a fairly
377
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aggressive bid on him to make sure
that I get my hands on him,
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especially in an OBP league, because
as you mentioned, there might be some
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average concerns though he's run pretty good
batting averages through most of his career,
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and I think probably his worst format
is going to be a points format because
381
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of the strikeout concerns. Yeah,
I think he's always going to have those
382
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strikeout concerns, so keep that in
mind. Absolutely. Yeah. But with
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that being said, why don't we
talk about someone that Owen Casey just faced
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off against the other night. Why
don't you tell us about the next picture
385
00:28:57.599 --> 00:29:00.799
you want to discuss. Yeah,
So, the pitcher that Owen Casey faced
386
00:29:00.799 --> 00:29:07.119
off against is I believe it's Kaider
Montero or possibly Keeter Montero. He's a
387
00:29:07.119 --> 00:29:11.559
twenty three year old right handed starting
pitcher in the Tigers organization, currently pitching
388
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at Triple A. He's listed at
six one five, but he is way
389
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over one forty five. I think
he's so. I think he's over two
390
00:29:19.119 --> 00:29:22.599
hundred pounds. I think I saw
somewhere that he's over two ten. So,
391
00:29:22.599 --> 00:29:26.279
so yeah, I think you kind
of have to take those height weight
392
00:29:26.440 --> 00:29:30.200
rankings with a grain of salt there. But that being said, Montero is
393
00:29:30.240 --> 00:29:34.839
a really interesting pitching prospect. We
have him with two above average pitches in
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00:29:34.880 --> 00:29:40.119
our scouting report, so a fifty
five fastball, fifty five slider with an
395
00:29:40.119 --> 00:29:44.519
average curveball at fifty and then a
developing change up, which we talk about
396
00:29:44.559 --> 00:29:47.799
a lot at just the forty grade
there. The other issue with him is
397
00:29:47.960 --> 00:29:52.000
the command is also at a forty
grade. He popped on the pee live
398
00:29:52.079 --> 00:29:56.079
minus scale last year, so he
had an eighty four p live minus,
399
00:29:56.079 --> 00:30:00.359
which is pretty good. His overall
stat line last year left something to be
400
00:30:00.480 --> 00:30:04.000
desired. It was just a four
to sixty six ERA, one point three
401
00:30:03.960 --> 00:30:07.519
to seven whip. The twenty nine
point one percent k rate was really cool
402
00:30:07.519 --> 00:30:11.160
to see. Eight point nine percent
walk rate, so a little bit high
403
00:30:11.240 --> 00:30:15.079
on the walk side, but nothing
crazy. So this is somebody who is
404
00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:19.200
at triple A. He's on the
forty man roster for the Tigers, and
405
00:30:19.839 --> 00:30:23.359
he's kind of knocking on the door
of the big leagues and he has strikeout
406
00:30:23.400 --> 00:30:27.839
upside. If he could just kind
of get the command a little bit better,
407
00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:33.119
I think he can be a successful
kind of back end starter with strikeout
408
00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:37.640
upside and pitching in a great division
and great ballpark and everything, and we
409
00:30:37.680 --> 00:30:42.279
saw that over his first couple starts
of the year. So across his first
410
00:30:42.319 --> 00:30:45.279
two starts in twenty twenty four,
he has eight ing's pitch. He hasn't
411
00:30:45.319 --> 00:30:49.480
given up a run, he's got
a point eight eight whip, thirty four
412
00:30:49.480 --> 00:30:53.799
point five percent strikeout rate. First
start didn't have many walks, just a
413
00:30:53.839 --> 00:30:57.759
six point seven percent walk rate,
but overall in the year it's up to
414
00:30:57.799 --> 00:31:02.720
a thirteen point eight percent walk rate
because he did walk three in four innings
415
00:31:02.759 --> 00:31:06.759
yesterday, but he also had four
strikeouts. And we mentioned that he was
416
00:31:06.759 --> 00:31:11.119
facing Casey. He was facing a
pretty good Iowa Cubs lineup overall with Casey
417
00:31:11.839 --> 00:31:15.279
PCA, Alexander Canario, Matt Murvis, so there's some names in there that
418
00:31:15.319 --> 00:31:21.000
are known for hitting the ball hard
and being able to draw some walks.
419
00:31:21.000 --> 00:31:23.400
So it's not super surprising that he
did have a little bit of an elevated
420
00:31:23.400 --> 00:31:27.480
walk rate in that start last night. But there is a lot to like
421
00:31:27.519 --> 00:31:30.519
here. He hasn't given up more
than two hits in either of those starts.
422
00:31:30.519 --> 00:31:33.400
He gave up one in his first
one and then just two last night.
423
00:31:33.440 --> 00:31:37.079
His fastball averages ninety five miles an
hour, and he has a really
424
00:31:37.160 --> 00:31:41.880
good slider, so the slider may
have actually taken a step forward this year.
425
00:31:41.880 --> 00:31:45.640
We have it graded as a fifty
five, but he actually has been
426
00:31:45.640 --> 00:31:49.799
able to get six additional inches of
IBB on that slider compared to what he
427
00:31:49.839 --> 00:31:53.160
showed last year at Triple A,
and in both starts he has a whiff
428
00:31:53.200 --> 00:31:59.839
rate over seventy percent on that pitch. So with the slider and the fastball,
429
00:31:59.839 --> 00:32:02.799
he's a pretty good foundation. Then
he also has a pretty decent curveball,
430
00:32:02.839 --> 00:32:06.880
but it can be a little bit
inconsistent. And then the command,
431
00:32:07.119 --> 00:32:09.400
which I mentioned is really his biggest
weakness right now, and you saw that
432
00:32:09.440 --> 00:32:15.119
in the last start with those three
walks. So he did struggle last year
433
00:32:15.400 --> 00:32:17.519
with home runs and he has not
given up any this year, so that's
434
00:32:17.559 --> 00:32:22.920
really good to see. The only
other downside with him is that the Tigers
435
00:32:22.960 --> 00:32:29.000
all of a sudden have a pretty
deep well of high minors in major league
436
00:32:29.039 --> 00:32:34.160
ready pitching prospects and just pitchers in
general, like they have Matt Manning as
437
00:32:34.200 --> 00:32:37.880
a kind of up and down guy
right now who could potentially he's probably deserving
438
00:32:37.960 --> 00:32:39.960
of a rotation spot. There You've
got, you know, Wilmer Flores waiting
439
00:32:39.960 --> 00:32:44.119
in the wings. You've got a
lot of interesting arms on the way,
440
00:32:44.319 --> 00:32:47.519
headlined by Jackson Job who might not
make an appearance this year but could be
441
00:32:47.519 --> 00:32:52.319
making impact next year. So you
wonder what the opportunity is going to be
442
00:32:52.359 --> 00:32:57.759
for him in that tiger's rotation and
if he gets shifted over to the bullpen.
443
00:32:57.839 --> 00:33:00.680
But if he can break through that
rotation, I mean, he has
444
00:33:00.759 --> 00:33:04.960
the skills to be an effective like
sp four. We had an unranked on
445
00:33:05.000 --> 00:33:07.599
our list, I think in leagues
of four hundred plus or even three hundred
446
00:33:07.599 --> 00:33:10.599
plus. If you really like,
go out there and grab Peter Montero because
447
00:33:10.599 --> 00:33:14.640
there's a lot to like here.
Yeah, there definitely is a lot to
448
00:33:14.759 --> 00:33:16.799
like. The big thing that stands
out to me looking at his kind of
449
00:33:16.839 --> 00:33:22.039
career stat lines are is the fact
that it really looks like his stuff took
450
00:33:22.039 --> 00:33:27.680
a step forward from twenty twenty two
to twenty twenty three, because when you
451
00:33:27.720 --> 00:33:32.599
look at his strikeouts in particular prior
to twenty twenty three, it's a lot
452
00:33:32.599 --> 00:33:37.279
of seven k per nine, eight
k per nine, nine k per nine,
453
00:33:37.319 --> 00:33:40.119
and then all of a sudden in
twenty twenty three it jumped to almost
454
00:33:40.160 --> 00:33:45.160
twelve and a half strikeouts per nine. In High A, it dipped a
455
00:33:45.200 --> 00:33:49.839
little bit, but he sustained that
higher rate at eleven point eight k per
456
00:33:49.920 --> 00:33:52.839
nine at Double A, and then
when he got to Triple A last season
457
00:33:53.440 --> 00:33:59.400
it was still a tick over ten
strikeouts per nine innings, And so far
458
00:33:59.440 --> 00:34:04.000
this season number is that eleven point
two five strikeouts per inning. So if
459
00:34:04.039 --> 00:34:08.079
you're saying that potentially the stuff has
crept up even a little bit more with
460
00:34:08.159 --> 00:34:13.800
that slider seeing a little bit more
movement, that could be really encouraging for
461
00:34:13.880 --> 00:34:21.239
this profile. And I wonder if, given the little bit of control concerns
462
00:34:21.280 --> 00:34:24.960
that he has, we might see
him break into the Biggs as a reliever
463
00:34:25.440 --> 00:34:30.239
before getting a shot as a starter. What do you think of that idea?
464
00:34:30.880 --> 00:34:34.320
Yeah, I could definitely see that
because if you have the two plus
465
00:34:34.360 --> 00:34:37.599
pitches there, potentially you're at least
above average with a fastball and slider.
466
00:34:37.719 --> 00:34:43.239
That's a pretty good combination for reliever. And like I mentioned, that rotation
467
00:34:43.360 --> 00:34:46.039
is kind of full right now.
The Tigers are doing some good stuff recently
468
00:34:46.039 --> 00:34:49.840
with their pitching development. You know, he is on the forty man,
469
00:34:49.960 --> 00:34:52.480
so he is ready to go if
they need an arm, and it could
470
00:34:52.519 --> 00:34:55.440
be in that bullpen. So yeah, I could definitely see that happening.
471
00:34:55.840 --> 00:35:00.400
My hope is that he becomes a
starter long term. But if he shifts
472
00:35:00.440 --> 00:35:02.599
into the bullpen and then was there
all year and the next year, you
473
00:35:02.639 --> 00:35:07.840
have guys like Job making their way
into some of those rotation spots. My
474
00:35:07.920 --> 00:35:13.760
fear is that Montero might just be
stranded in the bullpen forever. So that's
475
00:35:13.760 --> 00:35:15.599
really the risk with him, but
because I think he could be a really
476
00:35:15.599 --> 00:35:20.400
effective arm there, But I also
think he could be a pretty interesting fantasy
477
00:35:20.440 --> 00:35:22.960
starter if he gets the opportunity.
Absolutely. Now that being said, you
478
00:35:23.000 --> 00:35:27.719
mentioned how crowded that rotation has become
all of a sudden. The bullpen is
479
00:35:27.719 --> 00:35:31.559
no different either, Right, They've
now got guys like Foley and Holton and
480
00:35:31.639 --> 00:35:37.159
Miller and Lange, and I'm sure
I'm missing at least one or two guys
481
00:35:37.239 --> 00:35:40.840
there. But they've got all of
a sudden a plethora of arms, both
482
00:35:40.880 --> 00:35:46.360
in their rotation and their bullpen.
That could be a pretty big block on
483
00:35:46.480 --> 00:35:51.360
a player like this who were just
a little bit unsure as to how he's
484
00:35:51.400 --> 00:35:53.320
going to crack the major league roster, but like you said, he's on
485
00:35:53.440 --> 00:35:59.599
the forty man, which is a
really good sign as far as potentially being
486
00:35:59.639 --> 00:36:02.480
one of the first guys up if
they do need another arm, definitely.
487
00:36:04.199 --> 00:36:07.400
But with that we will get into
my final player today. This is a
488
00:36:07.400 --> 00:36:12.920
little bit of a deeper dive.
This is a player in the lower miners
489
00:36:13.039 --> 00:36:17.000
in single A. His name is
Fernando Perez. He's a starting pitcher as
490
00:36:17.079 --> 00:36:23.119
well for the dun Eden Blue Jays
of course of the Toronto Blue Jays farm
491
00:36:23.199 --> 00:36:30.119
system. And this is a guy
who really intrigued me and kind of popped
492
00:36:30.199 --> 00:36:35.880
up on my radar just a week
or two ago when Jeff Ponce of Baseball
493
00:36:35.880 --> 00:36:39.960
America tweeted about him when he got
a live look on the backfields there.
494
00:36:40.559 --> 00:36:45.000
And the reason he stood out to
me is because this is a player who
495
00:36:45.039 --> 00:36:50.360
has found success early in his career
as a really a high pitch ability arm
496
00:36:50.480 --> 00:36:57.760
with better control than most prospect hitters, especially in the DSL and complex levels
497
00:36:57.800 --> 00:37:01.440
are used to seeing. So so
the fact that he got by more on
498
00:37:01.480 --> 00:37:07.280
the pitch ability and the control than
the pure stuff. It's intriguing, but
499
00:37:07.400 --> 00:37:12.519
you need to see the stuff for
him to have success as he progresses into
500
00:37:12.559 --> 00:37:17.400
full season ball and into the upper
miners. And the reason Jeff Ponce's tweet
501
00:37:17.440 --> 00:37:22.519
really stood out to me is because
it seemed to indicate that the stuff has
502
00:37:22.639 --> 00:37:30.280
taken a step forward. He was
previously scouted as pretty average across the board
503
00:37:30.280 --> 00:37:35.519
with his pitches. It was a
low nineties fastball, but that's now apparently
504
00:37:35.559 --> 00:37:40.119
sitting ninety three to ninety five.
And in the outing that Jeff Ponce tweeted
505
00:37:40.159 --> 00:37:45.920
about, there was an average of
eighteen to nineteen inches of IVB and he
506
00:37:46.000 --> 00:37:50.679
also introduced a cutter that to my
knowledge, was a brand new pitch,
507
00:37:51.239 --> 00:37:57.719
while also showing a slider in the
low eighties and a change up also in
508
00:37:57.760 --> 00:38:04.159
the low eighties that induce a ton
of ugly swings. That really wasn't a
509
00:38:04.199 --> 00:38:07.800
pitch that he had been having a
ton of success with in the past.
510
00:38:07.159 --> 00:38:15.159
So there's some really encouraging stuff as
far as a potential step forward in the
511
00:38:15.199 --> 00:38:22.280
pitch mix. That being said,
he did have his single a debut in
512
00:38:22.480 --> 00:38:27.320
the season opener last night, and
it didn't go fantastic. You know,
513
00:38:27.360 --> 00:38:30.079
it was four point one innings,
he gave up three earned runs. He
514
00:38:30.159 --> 00:38:35.119
walked too, He only struck out
three. But when I talk about his
515
00:38:35.239 --> 00:38:42.239
control, those two walks are already
one sixth of how many batters he walked
516
00:38:42.320 --> 00:38:45.239
all of last season. In almost
fifty innings. He only allowed twelve walks
517
00:38:45.320 --> 00:38:51.000
last season. So if this guy
can actually take that step forward in his
518
00:38:51.039 --> 00:38:55.039
stuff and maintain the control, I
think Fernando Perez could be a name to
519
00:38:55.119 --> 00:39:00.440
remember this season because he could rise
quite a bit. He's another name that
520
00:39:00.480 --> 00:39:07.880
was unranked on our current prospect list. My opinion, if you've got a
521
00:39:07.920 --> 00:39:13.400
fantasy league or two with some deeper
rosters four hundred plus or Taylor's as you
522
00:39:13.519 --> 00:39:15.719
saw a week ago, when I
started scouting this guy, I added to
523
00:39:15.800 --> 00:39:19.639
him in a few spots where we
have three hundred, three hundred and fifty
524
00:39:19.679 --> 00:39:22.480
plus prospects roster. This is a
guy that I'm really encouraged by, but
525
00:39:22.519 --> 00:39:30.840
I'm going to need to see that
reportedly improved stuff actually show up this season.
526
00:39:31.840 --> 00:39:35.400
Yeah, I agree, I think
he's one that for me, I'm
527
00:39:35.440 --> 00:39:37.920
watch listing. You know, he's
one percent rostered in fan tracks, which
528
00:39:37.960 --> 00:39:43.679
I'm pretty sure is just you so
probably Yeah, So but no, I
529
00:39:43.719 --> 00:39:45.119
agree that there is a lot to
like there. I think he's a good
530
00:39:45.159 --> 00:39:52.280
call out for a speculative ad when
in those deeper leagues, or a watch
531
00:39:52.320 --> 00:39:55.960
list for now and then if he
if the results start coming, then you
532
00:39:57.000 --> 00:39:59.719
want to jump on him. But
for me, I'm going to wait and
533
00:39:59.760 --> 00:40:04.360
see for those results to materialize and
just kind of have his name on my
534
00:40:04.400 --> 00:40:07.440
watch list and in the back of
my head so I can act quickly when
535
00:40:07.480 --> 00:40:09.119
that happens. But I think if
you're in like you mentioned, if you're
536
00:40:09.159 --> 00:40:13.960
in like four hundred plus, five
hundred plus or even deeper leagues and he's
537
00:40:14.000 --> 00:40:16.639
sitting out there, he's definitely worth
an aspecutive ad there, just based on
538
00:40:16.679 --> 00:40:21.960
the stuff. Absolutely, he's not
someone that you need to fall in love
539
00:40:22.039 --> 00:40:27.440
with by any means, but he's, as you said, a solid speculative
540
00:40:27.480 --> 00:40:31.920
ad with the knowledge that he's probably
still going to be towards the bottom of
541
00:40:31.960 --> 00:40:37.920
your roster and might be one of
your top options to churn and burn when
542
00:40:37.239 --> 00:40:42.679
one of those new names stands out
to you and you need to find a
543
00:40:42.719 --> 00:40:45.559
way to make room on your roster, unless, of course, he is
544
00:40:46.039 --> 00:40:52.840
performing and showing the stuff that we
discussed definitely. But with that being said,
545
00:40:53.159 --> 00:41:00.440
I think that's a really good segue
into our kind of final conversation because
546
00:41:00.440 --> 00:41:02.960
those are all the players we want
to discuss. But this time of year
547
00:41:04.039 --> 00:41:07.920
it can be really difficult to figure
out what matters when it comes to the
548
00:41:08.000 --> 00:41:12.800
league stat lines. We've seen,
you know, eek or so of Triple
549
00:41:12.840 --> 00:41:16.960
A now and just one day of
the rest of the minor leagues. So
550
00:41:17.519 --> 00:41:22.000
I've got to ask Taylor, when
you are scouting these minor league players this
551
00:41:22.239 --> 00:41:28.119
early in the season, what are
you looking for. Yeah, there's a
552
00:41:28.159 --> 00:41:30.960
few things, so one of them. Is there anything different? So,
553
00:41:30.159 --> 00:41:35.639
like we discussed with Kaider Montero,
it looks like his slider has taken a
554
00:41:35.639 --> 00:41:38.119
step forward. He's got that increased
IBB And that's easier to see at Triple
555
00:41:38.159 --> 00:41:43.519
A where we have stackass numbers than
it is in the lower miners. In
556
00:41:43.559 --> 00:41:49.239
the lower miners, I'm looking to
see if somebody who struggled with control last
557
00:41:49.280 --> 00:41:53.440
year is all of a sudden not
walking anybody, or if somebody has if
558
00:41:53.480 --> 00:41:58.840
scouts are there and they can say
that somebody has increased veilo or new pitches,
559
00:41:59.320 --> 00:42:02.400
that sort of thing, But mostly
this early on I'm kind of looking
560
00:42:02.400 --> 00:42:07.360
for confirmation bias, so I do
my homework, I study up on different
561
00:42:07.400 --> 00:42:09.960
prospects. I kind of know who
I'm interested in, but don't really need
562
00:42:09.960 --> 00:42:15.000
to act on yet. So what
I'm looking for is, Okay, I
563
00:42:15.079 --> 00:42:19.239
have probably hundreds of prospects that I'm
interested in that I would like to pick
564
00:42:19.320 --> 00:42:22.000
up, but i'll have hundreds of
roster spots. So i want to see
565
00:42:22.440 --> 00:42:28.239
if the performance is showing me what
the potential I think these prospects can have,
566
00:42:28.920 --> 00:42:32.039
and then that allows me to jump
quickly because I already know who these
567
00:42:32.039 --> 00:42:35.320
guys are, I know who I'm
interested in, and then if they start
568
00:42:35.320 --> 00:42:37.199
to show the skills I want to
see, then I can act. But
569
00:42:38.039 --> 00:42:43.679
right now, I put a lot
more emphasis on pitching because you can tell
570
00:42:43.719 --> 00:42:49.039
more from a smaller sample than hitting. I'm basically mostly ignoring hitting unless it's
571
00:42:49.239 --> 00:42:53.400
like high minors where somebody is pushing
their way to a big league promotion.
572
00:42:54.000 --> 00:42:58.840
Then I'm gonna boost it up a
little bit, but I'm not really changing
573
00:42:58.840 --> 00:43:02.840
my opinion of hit or slower down
this early on. Yeah, I'm with
574
00:43:02.880 --> 00:43:08.199
you one hundred percent. There.
It's definitely easier to judge a picture this
575
00:43:08.360 --> 00:43:14.239
early in the season, even when
we look at week long stat lines now
576
00:43:14.320 --> 00:43:17.159
in triple A. Ohen Casey is
a great example because when I started writing
577
00:43:17.239 --> 00:43:22.480
him up for my written article that's
going to come out this weekend, he
578
00:43:22.719 --> 00:43:29.199
had just a twenty five percent strikeout
rate, which would rank as by far
579
00:43:29.480 --> 00:43:31.679
the best that he's put up in
any season if he were to keep that
580
00:43:31.840 --> 00:43:36.920
up throughout the year. But just
two days later, it's ballooned well over
581
00:43:36.960 --> 00:43:42.000
thirty percent. As we discussed earlier, so things can change so quickly in
582
00:43:42.159 --> 00:43:47.239
just a matter of four or five
at bats that it is hard to really
583
00:43:47.400 --> 00:43:52.639
judge a hitter this early in the
season, where you can judge a picture
584
00:43:52.800 --> 00:43:57.599
off of just one outing, sometimes
at least to a certain extent. And
585
00:43:57.920 --> 00:44:01.440
I think the biggest thing that I
agree on with what you said regarding what
586
00:44:01.519 --> 00:44:07.880
you look for is something new,
something that's changed, or something that catches
587
00:44:07.920 --> 00:44:12.159
your attention for some reason. And
a couple of the biggest examples for me
588
00:44:12.639 --> 00:44:17.840
so far have been Yarlin, Susana, and Tink Hence, because Susana is
589
00:44:17.840 --> 00:44:24.280
a guy that we saw in the
Prospect breakout, the Spring breakout this year,
590
00:44:24.320 --> 00:44:28.960
we saw him. We've seen him
for a few years now, easily
591
00:44:29.400 --> 00:44:35.440
topping one hundred miles an hour consistently, but having absolutely no idea where it's
592
00:44:35.440 --> 00:44:37.559
going. Well. In his first
start of the season last night, he
593
00:44:37.599 --> 00:44:45.639
didn't walk anybody, and that is
an absolute revelation. If there's actually something
594
00:44:45.719 --> 00:44:51.119
to it, If he somehow can
shore up that control throwing, like I
595
00:44:51.159 --> 00:44:54.119
said, well over one hundred miles
an hour with ease, he could be
596
00:44:54.800 --> 00:45:00.360
a really fast riser this season,
both through the minor leagues and up respect
597
00:45:00.440 --> 00:45:05.639
rankings with his monster stuff and then
with tink. Hence, this is a
598
00:45:05.679 --> 00:45:08.440
guy who at various times I've been
in on, I've been out on,
599
00:45:09.000 --> 00:45:15.000
But in his outing yesterday his fastball
really encouraged me. He averaged ninety five
600
00:45:15.079 --> 00:45:20.639
point six miles per hour with the
heater last night and got up to ninety
601
00:45:20.760 --> 00:45:24.159
eight at its peak. So that's
something that for me really caught my attention.
602
00:45:24.320 --> 00:45:28.559
Now, Hence, of course,
is a guy that is going to
603
00:45:28.559 --> 00:45:32.320
be owned all over the place.
He's a top one hundred prospect give or
604
00:45:32.400 --> 00:45:37.960
take. SuSanA's a little bit further
down and might be available in a lot
605
00:45:37.960 --> 00:45:42.199
of leagues out there, so he's
one to keep an eye on and maybe
606
00:45:42.239 --> 00:45:46.719
make a speculative add on, But
it is those different things, especially when
607
00:45:46.760 --> 00:45:52.519
we're talking about something that has given
a picture trouble in the past, like
608
00:45:52.559 --> 00:45:57.440
SuSanA's control. If that control is
there, that's a game changer. Yeah.
609
00:45:57.519 --> 00:46:00.159
And I like to call it you
made about spring training because we get
610
00:46:00.199 --> 00:46:07.000
reports and some video on like minor
league spring training games and reports on bullpens
611
00:46:07.039 --> 00:46:12.119
and live batting practice and who's kind
of drawing some buzz and who isn't.
612
00:46:12.119 --> 00:46:15.039
But it's hard to really act on
those because we don't see it. And
613
00:46:15.079 --> 00:46:20.719
we see how major league spring training
performances can be misleading, so minor league
614
00:46:20.760 --> 00:46:23.239
spring training performances could be even more
misleading. I mean, we mentioned it
615
00:46:23.280 --> 00:46:28.480
with Mena about the reports of his
velocity being up, and that hasn't materialized
616
00:46:28.559 --> 00:46:31.599
in a real game setting. So
for me, I love digging into those
617
00:46:31.599 --> 00:46:37.239
storylines in spring. For me,
it's like March is my homework and then
618
00:46:37.599 --> 00:46:39.519
April is when I act. So
that's what I was saying about, kind
619
00:46:39.519 --> 00:46:44.039
of having an idea of who you
like that's out there, and then if
620
00:46:44.039 --> 00:46:49.280
they start to show what you're looking
for, whether it's improved control like you've
621
00:46:49.320 --> 00:46:54.039
discussed with Harlan Susannah, or whether
it's that increased velo or just all of
622
00:46:54.079 --> 00:47:00.800
a sudden somebody coming out of nowhere
after FYPD and performing much better then the
623
00:47:00.800 --> 00:47:04.360
buzz they were getting during FYPD season. Those are all things I look for
624
00:47:04.480 --> 00:47:09.199
because I want to see if those
storylines in spring carried over into the start
625
00:47:09.199 --> 00:47:12.119
of the minor league season. So
yeah, I definitely think you got to
626
00:47:12.159 --> 00:47:15.440
play a pay attention to what's going
on kind of behind the scenes in spring
627
00:47:15.480 --> 00:47:21.480
training there for sure. The other
thing I think you need to consider is
628
00:47:22.320 --> 00:47:27.119
just who on your roster you would
potentially drop if you want to add these
629
00:47:27.119 --> 00:47:31.639
guys. Because we discussed it off
air prior to recording today, there were
630
00:47:31.679 --> 00:47:36.400
a few players that you've added you
have added in the last twenty four hours
631
00:47:36.440 --> 00:47:39.519
that I was looking at and just
had a really hard time figuring out who
632
00:47:39.639 --> 00:47:45.559
on my rosters. I liked them
more than where. When I talk to
633
00:47:45.599 --> 00:47:46.920
you about it, you said,
yeah, I had to make some hard
634
00:47:46.960 --> 00:47:52.039
decisions, but I wanted to get
on these guys early. So is there
635
00:47:52.039 --> 00:47:54.880
anything in particular that you look for
out of the guys that you want to
636
00:47:55.119 --> 00:48:00.400
drop or is it just a feel
thing this early in the season. Yeah,
637
00:48:00.440 --> 00:48:01.760
I mean, obviously those guys have
a place on my roster for a
638
00:48:01.800 --> 00:48:07.239
reason, right, So I like
all the players I have on my roster.
639
00:48:07.719 --> 00:48:10.000
It's just a matter for me when
I'm looking to drop people, and
640
00:48:10.039 --> 00:48:15.119
I will admit I'm very aggressive,
so I will often drop players who get
641
00:48:15.119 --> 00:48:21.440
picked up immediately, and that's okay. I'm looking kind of making a mental
642
00:48:21.440 --> 00:48:27.119
calculation of how much do I think
the potential is there for the value of
643
00:48:27.119 --> 00:48:30.840
this player to go up versus the
players on the back end of my roster.
644
00:48:30.920 --> 00:48:34.000
And a lot of times it really
helps being in a lot of leagues
645
00:48:34.480 --> 00:48:37.360
because you can kind of see what
the roster rates are out there. You
646
00:48:37.400 --> 00:48:42.079
can kind of see how much people
value certain prospects that might be on the
647
00:48:42.519 --> 00:48:45.679
end of your bench. And let's
say I have four guys I'm deciding between.
648
00:48:45.679 --> 00:48:51.079
If one is universally rostered and then
one is only rostered in three of
649
00:48:51.119 --> 00:48:52.840
our leagues, then I'm going to
drop the one that's only rostered in three
650
00:48:52.840 --> 00:48:57.480
of our leagues because I have a
better opportunity to get that player back if
651
00:48:57.480 --> 00:49:00.840
I changed my mind later. And
earning these back end roster spots. It's
652
00:49:00.880 --> 00:49:06.000
all speculation, so there's a good
chance you're gonna change your mind at some
653
00:49:06.039 --> 00:49:07.199
point. You gotta be okay with
that, Like, you can't get super
654
00:49:07.239 --> 00:49:10.039
attached to the players at the back
end of your roster or you will miss
655
00:49:10.079 --> 00:49:15.079
out on the arms and the bats
that pop up every year and just skyrocket.
656
00:49:15.159 --> 00:49:20.960
So I try to see what's the
potential that this individual is going to
657
00:49:21.000 --> 00:49:23.119
increase in value, and then what's
the hype level going to be. A
658
00:49:23.119 --> 00:49:27.559
couple players I picked up last night, I felt like there was already a
659
00:49:27.599 --> 00:49:30.960
little bit of buzz about and I
felt like as soon as they started performing,
660
00:49:30.239 --> 00:49:32.480
that hype level is going to go
through the roof and people are going
661
00:49:32.519 --> 00:49:36.719
to start picking them up everywhere.
So I wanted to be ahead of the
662
00:49:36.760 --> 00:49:39.480
curve on that. Whereas some of
the players I'm dropping, they're solid,
663
00:49:39.639 --> 00:49:45.519
but I don't really think they're going
to do anything short term to have that
664
00:49:45.599 --> 00:49:47.960
hype where people have to go out
of their way to pick them up.
665
00:49:49.000 --> 00:49:51.360
So those are all some of the
factors that I consider. But yeah,
666
00:49:51.400 --> 00:49:55.480
it's really difficult and one of the
hardest things in fantasy is knowing when to
667
00:49:55.559 --> 00:49:59.400
drop players. There's always interesting players
to pick up, but it's always making
668
00:49:59.480 --> 00:50:02.400
those decisions on who to drop and
when to drop them. Yeah, I
669
00:50:02.400 --> 00:50:06.159
think one thing you said there that
was really interesting to me is the fact
670
00:50:06.199 --> 00:50:13.119
that because we are in so many
leagues with so many sharp fantasy players out
671
00:50:13.119 --> 00:50:17.440
there, we can look at which
players are owned in the majority of the
672
00:50:17.519 --> 00:50:22.280
leagues that we are in. But
for those people out there who might only
673
00:50:22.320 --> 00:50:25.039
be in one or two or three
leagues, that can be a little bit
674
00:50:25.079 --> 00:50:31.079
harder to do, especially if there's
not a lot of crossover between the managers
675
00:50:31.119 --> 00:50:36.079
in those leagues. So the other
really important tool that you can use for
676
00:50:36.119 --> 00:50:39.280
something like that is just looking at
their roster percentage on fan tracks itself.
677
00:50:39.440 --> 00:50:45.840
Because if you're considering dropping two guys
but you're not sure which one, and
678
00:50:45.880 --> 00:50:50.559
then you go and look and you
see one is fifteen percent rostered on fan
679
00:50:50.639 --> 00:50:54.400
tracks and the other one is seven
percent rostered on fan tracks, that to
680
00:50:54.519 --> 00:51:02.280
me signifies that either it's a pretty
easy drop as far as letting go of
681
00:51:02.360 --> 00:51:07.000
the less owned player, or it
tells me that I need to dive in
682
00:51:07.039 --> 00:51:13.440
a little bit deeper on in particular
that player and remind myself of why he's
683
00:51:13.480 --> 00:51:16.679
on my roster in the first place. Yeah, And a couple other notes
684
00:51:16.679 --> 00:51:21.119
on that is also use Twitter.
You know, if you're deciding between dropping
685
00:51:21.159 --> 00:51:23.159
a couple of different people and you
don't know who's more likely to get picked
686
00:51:23.239 --> 00:51:27.559
up, or or you're on the
fence about adding somebody, search Twitter to
687
00:51:27.599 --> 00:51:30.639
see how much people are talking about
it, because a lot of fantasy,
688
00:51:31.000 --> 00:51:35.960
you know, and dynasty managers,
they will go after whatever pops up on
689
00:51:35.960 --> 00:51:37.840
their Twitter feed. You know,
if the there's these crazy gifts of a
690
00:51:37.840 --> 00:51:42.039
pitcher and he's throwing these nasty pitches, like they're gonna want that, right,
691
00:51:42.159 --> 00:51:45.880
so check that. And then also
I do this with both my major
692
00:51:45.960 --> 00:51:47.360
league rosters and minor league rosters because
again I'm in so many leagues, but
693
00:51:47.400 --> 00:51:50.559
I was trying to know ahead of
time, like who I would drop,
694
00:51:50.679 --> 00:51:52.920
right, Like, we're in a
lot of leagues where we don't have fab
695
00:51:53.199 --> 00:51:57.639
right that runs on a regular basis. We have we call it like fastest
696
00:51:57.639 --> 00:52:00.800
finger right. So it's like whoever
goes out there picks people up. So
697
00:52:00.199 --> 00:52:02.960
time is of the essence, And
I don't like having to do what you
698
00:52:04.000 --> 00:52:06.519
did, which is sit there and
think about, Okay, how do I
699
00:52:06.559 --> 00:52:08.199
fit this person on my roster.
Who do I want to drop? I
700
00:52:08.280 --> 00:52:12.280
always try to know that ahead of
time, and just when I have some
701
00:52:12.360 --> 00:52:14.679
spare time, we'll get my roster
and figure out, Okay, if there's
702
00:52:14.719 --> 00:52:16.880
somebody I really want to pick up, here's who I would drop for them.
703
00:52:17.199 --> 00:52:21.400
Because that way I don't need to
spend that time figuring out when I
704
00:52:21.400 --> 00:52:23.519
identify that person, I could just
go ahead and add them because I already
705
00:52:23.559 --> 00:52:27.159
know I've already done the calculation of
who I want to get rid of.
706
00:52:27.239 --> 00:52:30.800
So that's another piece of advice is
just kind of always have a name or
707
00:52:30.800 --> 00:52:34.360
two that you're ready to move on
from because sometimes you have to act fast.
708
00:52:35.639 --> 00:52:37.960
Absolutely. Yeah, So there anything
else that you want to mention here
709
00:52:37.960 --> 00:52:42.079
before we get going, because I
think we've had some awesome discussion here both
710
00:52:42.079 --> 00:52:45.360
on the players and sort of the
strategy so far. Yeah. No,
711
00:52:45.440 --> 00:52:46.559
I think it's been a great discussion. And one thing I do want to
712
00:52:46.760 --> 00:52:52.480
just plug real quick is the Dynasty
Baseball pickups article on Prospects Live. So
713
00:52:53.360 --> 00:52:55.960
we had the first one come out
this week that I wrote, I'll be
714
00:52:57.000 --> 00:53:01.199
doing a midweek pickups article and you
will be doing a weekend pickups article and
715
00:53:01.239 --> 00:53:06.320
we mentioned a couple of the names
on the podcast and for in season content.
716
00:53:06.360 --> 00:53:08.719
That's really going to be the format
going forward is we're going to be
717
00:53:09.280 --> 00:53:14.519
writing these articles for prospect Live where
we'll have a lot of different names,
718
00:53:14.559 --> 00:53:17.360
We'll have recommendations on how much fab
and where to pick them up. We'll
719
00:53:17.360 --> 00:53:21.639
tell you kind of what we like
about them, what are some of the
720
00:53:21.639 --> 00:53:24.239
concerns, and then we're going to
cover those names on the podcast as well.
721
00:53:24.280 --> 00:53:27.880
So if you liked the podcast,
you like the discussions that we had
722
00:53:27.920 --> 00:53:31.679
today, definitely check out the article. It's part of the Prospects Live Patreon
723
00:53:31.760 --> 00:53:35.440
feed. And yeah, I just
wanted to plug that real quick because I
724
00:53:35.440 --> 00:53:38.519
had my first article come out this
week and it was my really fantasy published
725
00:53:38.599 --> 00:53:42.719
article debut, so it was really
cool to see got a lot of positive
726
00:53:42.719 --> 00:53:45.519
feedback on it. So I appreciate
those that left a comment or that liked
727
00:53:45.599 --> 00:53:51.039
the article because that was really cool
to see. Yeah, absolutely, some
728
00:53:51.079 --> 00:53:55.039
awesome stuff coming from your article.
There some really good info. Hopefully I
729
00:53:55.199 --> 00:54:00.599
can live up to the hype now
with my addition that will come out this
730
00:54:00.760 --> 00:54:05.440
weekend, as you mentioned. But
yeah, that is everything that we have
731
00:54:05.559 --> 00:54:07.719
for you guys. Today. Thank
you all for listening. Be sure to
732
00:54:07.760 --> 00:54:12.480
follow us on Twitter. Those handles
will be posted in the show notes,
733
00:54:12.519 --> 00:54:16.639
and please consider subscribing to Prospects Live
for as little as five dollars per month
734
00:54:16.719 --> 00:54:22.559
to gain access to a ton of
incredible tools and content, including the p
735
00:54:22.800 --> 00:54:29.840
Live plus Peak projections, the recently
updated Top one thousand Dynasty rankings, the
736
00:54:30.079 --> 00:54:34.400
Top five hundred prospect rankings that will
have an update coming that will include my
737
00:54:34.639 --> 00:54:37.559
rankings, Taylor's rankings, and as
we talked about earlier on the episode,
738
00:54:37.559 --> 00:54:42.800
Tom's rankings as well for the first
time. There's a trade analyzer in there,
739
00:54:42.840 --> 00:54:45.559
the Daily Sheet, and a ton
of additional written and audio content,
740
00:54:46.000 --> 00:54:51.079
including these articles that Taylor was just
talking about from us. And if you
741
00:54:51.119 --> 00:54:55.039
guys sign up for the seventy tier
subscription or higher, you also get access
742
00:54:55.119 --> 00:55:00.280
to a personal discord channel that gives
you direct access to all all of the
743
00:55:00.320 --> 00:55:05.000
fantastic Prospects Live staff members. So
again, thank you all for listening,
744
00:55:05.280 --> 00:55:06.599
and we'll see you again next time.