The GOP’s BEST-CASE Scenario for Midterms EXPLAINED

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Are you new to prediction markets?
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Predictable101.com.
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Yeah,
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we put this together for you.
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It is a way to kind of bring you from the very,
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very beginning,
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uh,
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to
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trading on these markets as we get closer to the election,
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which is only a few weeks away.
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So,
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predictable101.com have the 1st 4 videos posted plus a,
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uh,
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also a digital guide you can look through,
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kind of get through the entire process.
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It's a,
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it's a resource,
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I would say maybe the most requested resource that
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we've had since the beginning of the show.
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It's uh up there now,
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predictable101.com.
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Go check that out.
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We've got a great show coming up for you today,
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including,
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you know,
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we talked a lot about bad news for Republicans.
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What's the good news?
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Is there a best case scenario we should look at
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for the midterms?
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We're gonna get into that
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next,
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please join us at predictableshow.com.
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Here we go.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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A lot of great stuff to get to,
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uh,
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today.
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I wanna start with the,
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the election.
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We are,
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uh,
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what,
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40,
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I have been here 42 days now
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until the election.
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Yeah,
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6 weeks away.
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Early voting has started already,
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but we'll give you some of the details on that maybe later,
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um,
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but I wanted to kind of get into
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one of the ways that we're thinking about this election.
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And it ties into sort of an active thesis statement
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that we have.
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We do this from time to time
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where we kind of have a,
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a,
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a general
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way we're thinking about an election,
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a way we're thinking about a market or just a general um prediction market take
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that we sort of apply,
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not necessarily as a,
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uh,
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it's like not the law of gravity here,
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but like something that kind of influences our thinking as we
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go through these markets on a day to day basis,
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and we have a new active thesis.
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This is one of the things that's influenced us as we've approached the election,
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which is to look at elections where we can find value
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and we think there's still some movement that might come
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a little bit later on because you,
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you know,
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a lot of these elections,
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people don't realize you can kind of wait,
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you don't have to necessarily get months and months ahead.
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We saw this in the primaries over and over and over again though,
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where if you were
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246 weeks ahead.
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You got
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what looked like a sure thing at 85 instead of 95.
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You got it at 75 instead of 90.
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Those extra points add up over time and if it's only gonna cost you a few weeks,
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you know,
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uh,
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why not?
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The reason I bring this up is because we are now looking
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at
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an election that is 6 weeks away,
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and it's important to kind of try to get a little bit ahead
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of these markets,
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so you're not necessarily trading on election night,
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um,
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because you might not get the value that you need there.
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There's gonna be a lot of money
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pouring into these election markets,
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and we're trying to get a little bit ahead of that.
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So,
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how do you project what's going to happen next?
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Well,
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The active thesis that we have has been leading our thinking a little bit on this
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is this one,
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and as an election nears
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people come home
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and
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uh
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this isn't universally true,
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but it is something that usually happens.
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I,
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I know you,
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you look at the way that you,
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what you get a lot of times is in
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the summer
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you get a lot of people who are hyper engaged that are talking to pollsters
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that are influencing those polls,
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and as,
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uh,
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time goes on.
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This is 2026 in America,
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right?
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We're now all hyper-engaged in election content.
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This is not back in the day where people really
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didn't pay attention until a week before the election.
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People still start picking it up,
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but they're not picking it up months and months and months ahead for the main,
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main part.
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If you're watching this show,
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you probably did,
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right?
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You're probably watching all these primaries,
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you probably know all these candidates by now.
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And so,
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you're way ahead of everybody else on this stuff.
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And
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when people start paying attention to this,
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they typically will,
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uh,
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maybe express frustration early on.
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They might say,
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hey,
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I don't think my side's doing a good job,
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you know.
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Uh,
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and then as times get closer,
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as you get closer to actually stepping into that booth,
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that's a big moment in your life,
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right?
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It's one of your,
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your big,
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uh,
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privileges of being in this country is to be able
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to go to the polls and then cast that vote.
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And as you get there,
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you start taking it a little bit more seriously,
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right?
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It's easy to say,
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I,
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I don't care,
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these parties are the same.
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In March
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It's a lot harder to say that as you're standing
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in a booth with a curtain closed behind you.
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And,
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you know,
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I,
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I think as we see,
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as we get closer to the election.
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The,
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the general inertia of what you might expect out of a state or an electorate
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winds up playing in not a
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dominating way,
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not a fifteen-point move,
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but a few points here and there that helps move those,
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uh,
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numbers a little bit more
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to one side
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or the other.
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If it's a blue state,
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a lot of times it goes blue.
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Red state kind of goes red,
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and you see that,
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uh,
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from time to time in these elections.
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I wanna go into a little bit more on this because
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It,
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it does affect the way that we're thinking.
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And there are,
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you know,
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depending on how you look at this,
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there are a lot of statistics that will
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add up to say,
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hey,
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well,
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wait a minute,
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maybe this isn't gonna be the catastrophe that,
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that the GOP
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is certainly,
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uh,
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facing right now.
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If you look at the media,
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that is what you're seeing.
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You're seeing constant
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catastrophe talk for Republicans.
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And,
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you know,
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I,
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I,
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I tend to dismiss catastrophes.
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I,
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I tend to think that the,
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the outlier circumstances don't normally occur.
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Um,
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um,
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that's my,
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I guess,
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a somewhat of an internal bias.
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But when you look at the elections now,
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this show has felt that way,
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I think,
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a little bit recently.
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And,
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and the reason why this show has felt that way a little bit recently is
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because the data has shown that that's the way that these things are going.
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At the beginning of this,
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I was,
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I don't know,
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there's a 5% chance of utter catastrophe
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for the,
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uh,
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Republican Party in this,
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and we should really start pricing it,
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like looking at states that Republicans should win easily and,
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and wonder
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if they're gonna go the opposite way.
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I've definitely expanded that.
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I think it's more like a 15% chance maybe now.
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Maybe it's even a 20% chance.
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Uh,
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some people who are crunching these numbers think it's more like a 50%,
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a 60%,
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a 70% chance.
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I don't,
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I don't agree with that analysis,
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at least not yet.
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The data will move me if it,
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if the data moves.
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Um,
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but that's what I see right now.
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I see a situation where we're,
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the outlying
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possibility of Democrats really
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crushing it here and wiping out a bunch of states that should be red,
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uh,
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is a,
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it's a real possibility now,
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um,
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though I still think it's a minority possibility.
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I wanna look the other way though,
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because
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as we've seen in elections before,
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we don't always get what we thought we were getting.
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You know,
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in 2022,
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there was a red wave that was supposed to come,
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kind of wound up being like a red trickle,
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frankly.
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I mean,
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you know,
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Republicans took the House,
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which was the minimum that they need to do,
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uh,
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needed to do,
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but they,
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that was not a runaway wave by any means for Republicans.
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2018
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looked like a big wave for Democrats.
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We kind of got them.
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Big wave for Democrats in 2018.
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Um,
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good looking back at the previous,
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uh,
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midterm elections.
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Um,
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you know,
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2014
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was a very,
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very good year for Republicans,
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uh,
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in that midterm.
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20,
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00:07:12.860 --> 00:07:16.530
2010 was probably the best year for Republicans in the midterm,
290
00:07:16.580 --> 00:07:17.850
at least in the last century.
291
00:07:17.900 --> 00:07:18.010
I mean,
292
00:07:18.060 --> 00:07:19.250
it was a wave election.
293
00:07:19.610 --> 00:07:20.720
That we haven't seen in a long time.
294
00:07:20.770 --> 00:07:20.920
And I,
295
00:07:20.970 --> 00:07:21.160
you know,
296
00:07:21.250 --> 00:07:23.290
I can tell you that a lot of people did not think that was coming.
297
00:07:23.370 --> 00:07:24.680
A lot of people thought the Tea Party was just
298
00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:26.340
this thing that was not going to make any impact,
299
00:07:26.650 --> 00:07:27.360
made a big impact,
300
00:07:27.410 --> 00:07:28.840
and it was the biggest wave election.
301
00:07:29.200 --> 00:07:29.310
Uh,
302
00:07:29.400 --> 00:07:30.900
in basically a century,
303
00:07:31.170 --> 00:07:31.260
uh,
304
00:07:31.400 --> 00:07:32.300
for Republicans
305
00:07:32.480 --> 00:07:33.070
in 2010.
306
00:07:33.160 --> 00:07:34.440
So that's kind of the history of this.
307
00:07:34.720 --> 00:07:36.270
Let me give you a couple of pieces of data here,
308
00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:36.870
and there's,
309
00:07:37.000 --> 00:07:38.020
there's some interesting,
310
00:07:38.240 --> 00:07:38.430
uh,
311
00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:40.830
data that backs up what I'm talking about here.
312
00:07:41.090 --> 00:07:42.720
Not necessarily always about just coming home,
313
00:07:42.840 --> 00:07:43.740
but sometimes just
314
00:07:43.920 --> 00:07:44.700
how polls
315
00:07:44.920 --> 00:07:46.300
typically understate
316
00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:49.150
Democrats during the late summer months.
317
00:07:49.280 --> 00:07:49.390
Um,
318
00:07:49.480 --> 00:07:51.350
a great piece written by Patrick Ruffini,
319
00:07:51.480 --> 00:07:52.580
Why Senate Polling
320
00:07:52.720 --> 00:07:53.960
Is Always Worse
321
00:07:54.200 --> 00:07:54.990
in the Summer.
322
00:07:55.860 --> 00:07:56.340
He,
323
00:07:56.700 --> 00:07:57.730
it's a very long article.
324
00:07:57.780 --> 00:08:00.640
I would encourage you to go read the entire thing if you're interested in it,
325
00:08:00.900 --> 00:08:03.450
but I wanna give you some of the data points here that he notes,
326
00:08:03.540 --> 00:08:03.890
and it's,
327
00:08:03.940 --> 00:08:04.210
it's,
328
00:08:04.260 --> 00:08:04.800
I think,
329
00:08:05.140 --> 00:08:05.530
uh,
330
00:08:06.420 --> 00:08:07.050
quite interesting.
331
00:08:07.140 --> 00:08:07.430
And it,
332
00:08:07.620 --> 00:08:08.050
I don't know,
333
00:08:08.150 --> 00:08:11.760
it kind of connects too to just the way that I've felt about some of these,
334
00:08:12.150 --> 00:08:12.250
uh,
335
00:08:12.340 --> 00:08:13.880
midterm elections over the years.
336
00:08:14.110 --> 00:08:14.210
Um,
337
00:08:14.340 --> 00:08:14.410
OK,
338
00:08:14.540 --> 00:08:18.090
Senate polls have missed in the same direction for 4 straight cycles.
339
00:08:18.260 --> 00:08:19.610
This is the first chart I want to start you,
340
00:08:19.660 --> 00:08:21.320
but kind of a chart of Palooza today.
341
00:08:21.580 --> 00:08:21.930
Yeah.
342
00:08:22.320 --> 00:08:22.440
Uh,
343
00:08:22.590 --> 00:08:24.010
it's kind of a chart of Palooza today.
344
00:08:24.240 --> 00:08:24.350
Uh,
345
00:08:24.520 --> 00:08:25.310
you see,
346
00:08:25.600 --> 00:08:25.670
uh,
347
00:08:25.760 --> 00:08:26.550
and I'll describe this,
348
00:08:26.570 --> 00:08:26.890
of course,
349
00:08:26.970 --> 00:08:27.470
if you are,
350
00:08:27.560 --> 00:08:27.630
uh,
351
00:08:27.800 --> 00:08:29.150
on podcast audio only.
352
00:08:29.270 --> 00:08:29.510
By the way,
353
00:08:29.560 --> 00:08:30.470
we love you on podcast.
354
00:08:30.560 --> 00:08:30.980
If you,
355
00:08:31.010 --> 00:08:31.230
uh,
356
00:08:31.560 --> 00:08:32.750
listen to podcast audio only,
357
00:08:32.840 --> 00:08:34.700
make sure to go over and subscribe to Predictable.
358
00:08:34.960 --> 00:08:35.390
We love to see,
359
00:08:35.480 --> 00:08:36.190
we see many of you,
360
00:08:36.260 --> 00:08:36.390
uh,
361
00:08:36.520 --> 00:08:36.710
have,
362
00:08:36.760 --> 00:08:37.620
and we appreciate it.
363
00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:37.950
Uh,
364
00:08:38.080 --> 00:08:40.049
you see the chart kind of peak
365
00:08:40.600 --> 00:08:41.020
in,
366
00:08:41.280 --> 00:08:41.919
uh,
367
00:08:42.320 --> 00:08:42.590
you know,
368
00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:43.669
a little bit earlier.
369
00:08:44.470 --> 00:08:44.760
Uh,
370
00:08:44.910 --> 00:08:45.650
in the summer,
371
00:08:45.790 --> 00:08:46.180
and,
372
00:08:46.250 --> 00:08:46.260
uh,
373
00:08:46.270 --> 00:08:47.340
from where this was written.
374
00:08:47.430 --> 00:08:47.820
This was written,
375
00:08:47.870 --> 00:08:48.220
by the way,
376
00:08:48.390 --> 00:08:48.610
in
377
00:08:48.710 --> 00:08:50.270
on August 18th,
378
00:08:50.430 --> 00:08:51.820
so we're about a month,
379
00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:52.100
uh,
380
00:08:52.310 --> 00:08:53.100
this is about a month ago,
381
00:08:53.230 --> 00:08:54.170
keep this in mind.
382
00:08:54.470 --> 00:08:54.940
You see,
383
00:08:55.190 --> 00:08:55.300
uh,
384
00:08:55.390 --> 00:08:55.540
the,
385
00:08:55.750 --> 00:08:58.090
the chart peaks for Democrats and
386
00:08:58.310 --> 00:08:58.420
the,
387
00:08:58.470 --> 00:08:59.460
the difference here and what we're,
388
00:08:59.550 --> 00:09:01.010
what this black line is showing.
389
00:09:01.460 --> 00:09:02.170
Is,
390
00:09:02.340 --> 00:09:02.920
um,
391
00:09:03.300 --> 00:09:05.120
the difference between what polls,
392
00:09:05.260 --> 00:09:05.490
uh,
393
00:09:05.860 --> 00:09:08.050
showed and where they kind of turned out.
394
00:09:08.300 --> 00:09:08.890
Election day,
395
00:09:09.060 --> 00:09:09.130
uh,
396
00:09:09.340 --> 00:09:10.210
they missed in,
397
00:09:10.300 --> 00:09:10.560
uh,
398
00:09:11.580 --> 00:09:11.930
along this,
399
00:09:12.020 --> 00:09:12.130
uh,
400
00:09:12.220 --> 00:09:12.680
area
401
00:09:13.020 --> 00:09:15.610
by about 2.6 points favoring the Democrats.
402
00:09:15.660 --> 00:09:18.360
The polls were in favor of the Democrats by about 2.5 points.
403
00:09:18.660 --> 00:09:20.050
But if you go back to late summer,
404
00:09:20.140 --> 00:09:21.420
it was more like 6 points,
405
00:09:21.620 --> 00:09:21.740
right?
406
00:09:21.820 --> 00:09:22.050
So a,
407
00:09:22.100 --> 00:09:24.040
a 43 to 4 point move.
408
00:09:24.770 --> 00:09:27.720
Toward Republicans as polls started locking in,
409
00:09:27.740 --> 00:09:30.280
and I think Republican voters started locking in.
410
00:09:30.450 --> 00:09:31.560
You see the same thing here,
411
00:09:31.610 --> 00:09:33.400
and one thing that's interesting in this next chart
412
00:09:33.770 --> 00:09:36.360
shows the difference between presidential years and midterm years,
413
00:09:36.410 --> 00:09:39.350
and we do see a pretty big divergence here
414
00:09:39.570 --> 00:09:41.040
in that presidential years,
415
00:09:41.170 --> 00:09:41.360
yeah,
416
00:09:41.490 --> 00:09:42.640
you saw a miss,
417
00:09:43.010 --> 00:09:44.950
you saw a much bigger miss though,
418
00:09:45.210 --> 00:09:45.790
when it came
419
00:09:45.890 --> 00:09:46.960
to midterm years.
420
00:09:47.090 --> 00:09:51.240
Midterm years tended to favor Democratic candidates in summer polling.
421
00:09:51.820 --> 00:09:52.440
More
422
00:09:52.780 --> 00:09:53.250
than
423
00:09:53.380 --> 00:09:54.850
in the presidential years,
424
00:09:54.900 --> 00:09:57.010
and that may be somewhat Trump-specific.
425
00:09:57.100 --> 00:09:57.250
I mean,
426
00:09:57.380 --> 00:09:58.000
Trump is
427
00:09:58.220 --> 00:09:59.130
the type of guy who,
428
00:09:59.240 --> 00:09:59.420
uh,
429
00:09:59.620 --> 00:10:01.480
brings out a lot of voters who don't normally come out.
430
00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:02.660
And so,
431
00:10:02.920 --> 00:10:03.310
uh,
432
00:10:03.610 --> 00:10:04.980
that might be the reason why.
433
00:10:05.080 --> 00:10:06.910
Maybe it's not a long term thing.
434
00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:08.580
We'll have to kind of see a few more cycles
435
00:10:08.820 --> 00:10:09.350
turn out here,
436
00:10:09.440 --> 00:10:11.020
but this has been pretty typical.
437
00:10:11.280 --> 00:10:13.000
What we've seen is Democrats look really,
438
00:10:13.080 --> 00:10:13.620
really good
439
00:10:13.800 --> 00:10:14.420
in the summer,
440
00:10:14.630 --> 00:10:16.870
and then things start tightening up later on.
441
00:10:17.280 --> 00:10:18.790
You can see the difference here once again in
442
00:10:18.790 --> 00:10:21.510
this next chart between presidential years and midterms,
443
00:10:21.560 --> 00:10:21.860
and
444
00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:23.060
you see the line is,
445
00:10:23.080 --> 00:10:23.390
is,
446
00:10:23.460 --> 00:10:25.460
is there's a significant divergence there
447
00:10:25.960 --> 00:10:26.190
by,
448
00:10:26.300 --> 00:10:26.470
you know,
449
00:10:26.520 --> 00:10:27.230
a few points.
450
00:10:27.320 --> 00:10:28.430
It's several points,
451
00:10:28.840 --> 00:10:30.190
4 or 5 point difference.
452
00:10:30.600 --> 00:10:32.310
Between those two margins.
453
00:10:32.400 --> 00:10:35.150
One more chart I'll show you real quick from uh Patrick's piece,
454
00:10:35.240 --> 00:10:35.990
which is great.
455
00:10:36.280 --> 00:10:36.550
Um,
456
00:10:36.800 --> 00:10:36.950
uh,
457
00:10:37.120 --> 00:10:38.710
kind of just how it changes by state.
458
00:10:38.730 --> 00:10:40.700
This is an interesting chart if you're looking at
459
00:10:42.090 --> 00:10:43.380
What states should I target?
460
00:10:43.650 --> 00:10:44.640
This is just something to think about.
461
00:10:44.820 --> 00:10:46.180
It's not an end all be all,
462
00:10:46.250 --> 00:10:46.680
but it's,
463
00:10:46.730 --> 00:10:47.350
it's a,
464
00:10:47.610 --> 00:10:48.950
it's an interesting thing
465
00:10:49.350 --> 00:10:49.600
to,
466
00:10:49.770 --> 00:10:50.000
uh,
467
00:10:50.170 --> 00:10:52.670
to think about and to maybe look at a little
468
00:10:52.740 --> 00:10:54.920
piece of evidence when you're targeting a particular state.
469
00:10:55.130 --> 00:10:57.750
Which states have been looked more Democrat
470
00:10:57.930 --> 00:11:00.420
in the polling leading up and as opposed to where they,
471
00:11:00.650 --> 00:11:00.760
uh,
472
00:11:00.850 --> 00:11:01.510
wound up.
473
00:11:01.690 --> 00:11:02.400
You see major,
474
00:11:02.530 --> 00:11:03.080
major differences.
475
00:11:03.170 --> 00:11:04.880
South Dakota might be the biggest on there,
476
00:11:04.930 --> 00:11:07.310
a 13.7 point difference,
477
00:11:07.570 --> 00:11:07.840
um.
478
00:11:08.100 --> 00:11:08.330
You know,
479
00:11:08.510 --> 00:11:08.580
uh,
480
00:11:08.940 --> 00:11:11.040
there's a couple of different ways he's broken this down.
481
00:11:11.260 --> 00:11:13.450
If you look at the chart on the right of your screen,
482
00:11:13.580 --> 00:11:15.850
how adjusted for how the state was polled,
483
00:11:16.060 --> 00:11:16.780
you see really,
484
00:11:16.820 --> 00:11:16.970
like,
485
00:11:17.060 --> 00:11:17.170
you know,
486
00:11:17.220 --> 00:11:19.060
you see Maine is an example there,
487
00:11:19.190 --> 00:11:20.330
Michigan is an example.
488
00:11:20.460 --> 00:11:21.980
There's no surprise that Michigan,
489
00:11:22.220 --> 00:11:22.730
Wisconsin,
490
00:11:22.860 --> 00:11:24.920
Pennsylvania are all more blue.
491
00:11:25.260 --> 00:11:25.520
The,
492
00:11:25.620 --> 00:11:27.850
the red differences are very minimal.
493
00:11:27.980 --> 00:11:30.980
You see a couple of states that tended to be a little bit more red.
494
00:11:31.140 --> 00:11:32.220
Utah being the biggest one.
495
00:11:32.300 --> 00:11:34.520
I do wonder though if that is partially because
496
00:11:34.950 --> 00:11:35.180
Of,
497
00:11:35.350 --> 00:11:35.620
uh,
498
00:11:36.070 --> 00:11:37.930
they've been trying to run independence there,
499
00:11:38.270 --> 00:11:38.330
uh,
500
00:11:38.630 --> 00:11:38.850
against,
501
00:11:38.990 --> 00:11:39.060
uh,
502
00:11:39.150 --> 00:11:40.060
the Republicans there.
503
00:11:40.150 --> 00:11:41.350
So that could be part of the reason.
504
00:11:41.470 --> 00:11:41.720
But
505
00:11:41.990 --> 00:11:42.420
Republicans,
506
00:11:42.510 --> 00:11:42.700
you know,
507
00:11:42.950 --> 00:11:43.410
in Utah,
508
00:11:43.430 --> 00:11:43.760
it's like,
509
00:11:43.970 --> 00:11:46.300
are they gonna win by 78 or 65?
510
00:11:46.390 --> 00:11:46.550
You know,
511
00:11:46.830 --> 00:11:47.330
it's not
512
00:11:47.510 --> 00:11:48.260
all that competitive.
513
00:11:48.350 --> 00:11:48.500
But,
514
00:11:48.750 --> 00:11:48.820
uh,
515
00:11:48.910 --> 00:11:49.980
you see that generally speaking,
516
00:11:50.190 --> 00:11:52.220
polls have been right in some states,
517
00:11:52.390 --> 00:11:52.480
uh,
518
00:11:52.630 --> 00:11:53.190
Nevada,
519
00:11:53.510 --> 00:11:54.170
Texas,
520
00:11:54.390 --> 00:11:54.550
uh,
521
00:11:54.710 --> 00:11:55.570
Minnesota,
522
00:11:55.910 --> 00:11:56.340
Georgia,
523
00:11:56.510 --> 00:11:56.970
very,
524
00:11:57.030 --> 00:11:57.410
very close,
525
00:11:57.590 --> 00:11:57.700
uh,
526
00:11:57.830 --> 00:11:58.500
even Maryland,
527
00:11:58.590 --> 00:11:58.710
very,
528
00:11:58.750 --> 00:11:59.820
very close to where,
529
00:12:00.110 --> 00:12:00.140
uh,
530
00:12:00.270 --> 00:12:01.450
you'd expect it to be.
531
00:12:02.300 --> 00:12:02.950
Other states,
532
00:12:03.040 --> 00:12:03.650
not so much.
533
00:12:03.700 --> 00:12:04.120
So,
534
00:12:04.630 --> 00:12:05.280
you have that.
535
00:12:05.380 --> 00:12:05.810
And now,
536
00:12:05.960 --> 00:12:07.770
let me show you another piece of information
537
00:12:07.770 --> 00:12:09.610
that is interesting from very recent history,
538
00:12:09.660 --> 00:12:10.050
and there's a,
539
00:12:10.100 --> 00:12:12.050
there's an asterisk around this a little bit,
540
00:12:12.140 --> 00:12:12.440
but
541
00:12:12.740 --> 00:12:16.120
let's go to the Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump polling.
542
00:12:16.380 --> 00:12:16.850
Remember,
543
00:12:17.020 --> 00:12:17.790
Joe Biden,
544
00:12:18.060 --> 00:12:18.680
um,
545
00:12:19.100 --> 00:12:19.450
you know,
546
00:12:19.700 --> 00:12:20.020
first of all,
547
00:12:20.040 --> 00:12:21.050
he fell off his bike too,
548
00:12:21.140 --> 00:12:22.240
so don't just make fun of me.
549
00:12:22.380 --> 00:12:22.960
He falls off,
550
00:12:22.980 --> 00:12:23.770
falls off his bike,
551
00:12:23.820 --> 00:12:24.930
then falls out of the campaign.
552
00:12:25.330 --> 00:12:25.550
Um,
553
00:12:25.720 --> 00:12:26.270
and he,
554
00:12:26.440 --> 00:12:26.590
uh,
555
00:12:26.880 --> 00:12:27.670
Kamala Harris runs.
556
00:12:27.760 --> 00:12:28.670
Kamala Harris has this,
557
00:12:28.840 --> 00:12:28.990
uh,
558
00:12:29.170 --> 00:12:30.350
an interesting arc.
559
00:12:30.440 --> 00:12:31.070
Let's bring up this,
560
00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:31.350
uh,
561
00:12:31.480 --> 00:12:31.950
these polls.
562
00:12:32.040 --> 00:12:34.180
This is from 2024,
563
00:12:34.520 --> 00:12:36.100
and the final results were Trump by,
564
00:12:36.260 --> 00:12:36.510
uh,
565
00:12:36.760 --> 00:12:37.700
about a point and a half,
566
00:12:38.080 --> 00:12:38.230
uh,
567
00:12:38.400 --> 00:12:39.420
if I'm reading that right.
568
00:12:39.680 --> 00:12:41.960
But if you kind of look at the polls as they added up here,
569
00:12:42.360 --> 00:12:43.040
it's pretty close,
570
00:12:43.160 --> 00:12:43.280
right?
571
00:12:43.360 --> 00:12:44.450
This was a very close,
572
00:12:44.600 --> 00:12:46.750
people overstate how much of a,
573
00:12:46.840 --> 00:12:47.110
uh,
574
00:12:47.280 --> 00:12:47.350
uh,
575
00:12:47.440 --> 00:12:47.630
you know,
576
00:12:47.720 --> 00:12:49.700
led off by Donald Trump himself,
577
00:12:49.920 --> 00:12:51.750
saying this was the biggest wave election of all time.
578
00:12:51.840 --> 00:12:52.230
It was not.
579
00:12:52.250 --> 00:12:53.230
It was a close election.
580
00:12:53.720 --> 00:12:53.830
Uh,
581
00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:55.870
he won all 7 swing states,
582
00:12:55.920 --> 00:12:58.980
which is why it's kind of understandable to think it was a blowout.
583
00:12:59.200 --> 00:13:00.030
But generally speaking,
584
00:13:00.200 --> 00:13:01.380
those were pretty close
585
00:13:01.520 --> 00:13:01.910
states.
586
00:13:02.000 --> 00:13:02.190
I mean,
587
00:13:02.460 --> 00:13:03.380
Trump needed,
588
00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:03.710
uh,
589
00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:04.550
a bunch of those states,
590
00:13:04.570 --> 00:13:04.750
and,
591
00:13:04.770 --> 00:13:04.910
you know,
592
00:13:05.000 --> 00:13:06.420
some of those states were less than 1 point.
593
00:13:06.680 --> 00:13:06.750
Uh,
594
00:13:07.010 --> 00:13:07.110
anyway,
595
00:13:07.240 --> 00:13:08.150
so you look at these states,
596
00:13:08.230 --> 00:13:08.870
a lot of ties,
597
00:13:08.920 --> 00:13:09.320
a lot of ties,
598
00:13:09.400 --> 00:13:10.880
but if you kind of scroll back a little bit.
599
00:13:11.010 --> 00:13:12.390
October and November
600
00:13:12.520 --> 00:13:13.800
as we get right into the election.
601
00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:15.800
There's a nice ad for Sentex
602
00:13:16.040 --> 00:13:17.220
and uh uh
603
00:13:17.320 --> 00:13:18.470
uh another place to click to proceed.
604
00:13:18.560 --> 00:13:19.390
But if you kind of scroll down,
605
00:13:19.440 --> 00:13:19.750
here we go,
606
00:13:19.800 --> 00:13:21.350
we'll get into the later dates here
607
00:13:21.560 --> 00:13:22.430
as we scroll back.
608
00:13:22.640 --> 00:13:23.350
October,
609
00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:26.470
and now we're getting into uh where we are now and what you see here,
610
00:13:26.600 --> 00:13:26.680
look at,
611
00:13:26.760 --> 00:13:26.930
I mean,
612
00:13:26.960 --> 00:13:28.300
look at what we have on screen right now.
613
00:13:29.230 --> 00:13:29.520
Harris,
614
00:13:29.580 --> 00:13:29.870
Harris,
615
00:13:29.970 --> 00:13:30.280
Harris,
616
00:13:30.350 --> 00:13:30.680
Harris,
617
00:13:30.750 --> 00:13:31.080
Harris,
618
00:13:31.150 --> 00:13:31.480
Harris,
619
00:13:31.550 --> 00:13:31.840
Harris,
620
00:13:31.930 --> 00:13:32.240
Harris,
621
00:13:32.310 --> 00:13:32.740
Harris,
622
00:13:32.950 --> 00:13:33.330
Trump
623
00:13:33.470 --> 00:13:34.020
by 2.
624
00:13:34.310 --> 00:13:34.600
Harris,
625
00:13:34.690 --> 00:13:35.010
Harris,
626
00:13:35.070 --> 00:13:35.200
Harris,
627
00:13:35.220 --> 00:13:35.400
Harris,
628
00:13:35.460 --> 00:13:35.950
Harris,
629
00:13:36.230 --> 00:13:37.050
Trump by 2.
630
00:13:37.270 --> 00:13:37.540
Harris,
631
00:13:37.620 --> 00:13:37.900
Harris,
632
00:13:37.960 --> 00:13:38.340
Harris,
633
00:13:38.550 --> 00:13:39.210
Trump by 2.
634
00:13:39.350 --> 00:13:39.630
Harris,
635
00:13:39.710 --> 00:13:39.980
Harris,
636
00:13:40.070 --> 00:13:40.360
Harris,
637
00:13:40.410 --> 00:13:40.680
Harris,
638
00:13:40.780 --> 00:13:41.110
Harris,
639
00:13:41.230 --> 00:13:41.620
Ty,
640
00:13:41.750 --> 00:13:42.030
Harris,
641
00:13:42.070 --> 00:13:42.300
Harris,
642
00:13:42.350 --> 00:13:42.580
Harris,
643
00:13:42.630 --> 00:13:42.740
I mean,
644
00:13:42.790 --> 00:13:43.290
look at this.
645
00:13:43.390 --> 00:13:44.230
This is all
646
00:13:44.670 --> 00:13:46.690
Kamala Harris favored in this period.
647
00:13:46.950 --> 00:13:47.490
Harris,
648
00:13:47.710 --> 00:13:47.770
uh,
649
00:13:47.910 --> 00:13:50.220
it's hard to remember that this occurred.
650
00:13:50.570 --> 00:13:52.870
But Kamala Harris was leading at this point
651
00:13:53.170 --> 00:13:54.160
in the 2020,
652
00:13:54.330 --> 00:13:55.760
the most recent election,
653
00:13:56.050 --> 00:13:57.320
Kamala Harris was leading,
654
00:13:57.530 --> 00:13:58.200
and then of course,
655
00:13:58.430 --> 00:13:59.420
wound up losing,
656
00:13:59.490 --> 00:14:00.640
not just the electoral vote,
657
00:14:00.660 --> 00:14:01.980
but also the popular vote.
658
00:14:02.330 --> 00:14:02.560
Now,
659
00:14:02.730 --> 00:14:05.030
part of this was the arc of the Harris campaign,
660
00:14:05.210 --> 00:14:06.860
which came in in July,
661
00:14:07.210 --> 00:14:07.360
took,
662
00:14:07.490 --> 00:14:08.760
went to kind of new heights in.
663
00:14:08.870 --> 00:14:09.440
August
664
00:14:09.620 --> 00:14:11.240
and then started to fade
665
00:14:11.380 --> 00:14:12.280
through September
666
00:14:12.420 --> 00:14:13.330
and October,
667
00:14:13.580 --> 00:14:14.480
but still,
668
00:14:14.700 --> 00:14:15.050
uh,
669
00:14:15.700 --> 00:14:17.540
this stuff happens often.
670
00:14:17.820 --> 00:14:19.770
It was still a close race and wound up being a close race,
671
00:14:19.830 --> 00:14:21.500
so there wasn't like 20 point movement here.
672
00:14:21.540 --> 00:14:22.880
I'm not trying to make that case,
673
00:14:23.020 --> 00:14:23.910
but there was some movement here.
674
00:14:23.980 --> 00:14:25.970
Let me give you a couple of other pieces of data that we're again,
675
00:14:26.010 --> 00:14:27.080
we're laying out today.
676
00:14:27.460 --> 00:14:29.160
The most optimistic case possible
677
00:14:29.420 --> 00:14:30.170
for Republicans.
678
00:14:30.260 --> 00:14:31.050
How can they do here?
679
00:14:31.180 --> 00:14:31.550
Well,
680
00:14:31.780 --> 00:14:31.970
um,
681
00:14:32.100 --> 00:14:32.840
let me give you this.
682
00:14:33.180 --> 00:14:34.290
I've mentioned this several times.
683
00:14:34.420 --> 00:14:36.150
The polling has gotten much worse
684
00:14:36.490 --> 00:14:37.840
for Republicans
685
00:14:37.940 --> 00:14:39.090
over the past couple of weeks.
686
00:14:39.300 --> 00:14:40.160
Why is that?
687
00:14:40.580 --> 00:14:43.320
YouGov has a really nice example and it shows you
688
00:14:43.580 --> 00:14:45.140
why that is partially.
689
00:14:45.530 --> 00:14:46.760
In this particular case,
690
00:14:46.850 --> 00:14:47.320
this is their,
691
00:14:47.450 --> 00:14:47.490
uh,
692
00:14:47.610 --> 00:14:49.440
how many Democrats plan to vote for uh
693
00:14:49.440 --> 00:14:51.310
how many Americans have planned to vote for Democrats
694
00:14:51.450 --> 00:14:53.600
and Republicans for Congress in 2026.
695
00:14:53.650 --> 00:14:55.310
This is known as the generic ballot,
696
00:14:55.470 --> 00:14:56.990
and what you see here is a split
697
00:14:57.250 --> 00:14:58.240
between Republicans and Democrats.
698
00:14:58.490 --> 00:14:59.880
Democrats certainly favored and have been
699
00:14:59.880 --> 00:15:01.590
favored since they started taking this poll
700
00:15:01.730 --> 00:15:02.760
at the beginning of the year.
701
00:15:03.080 --> 00:15:03.150
Uh,
702
00:15:03.240 --> 00:15:04.710
it has been 3 or 4 points,
703
00:15:04.850 --> 00:15:04.860
uh,
704
00:15:05.040 --> 00:15:08.390
has grown over the past few weeks to about 6 or 7 points
705
00:15:08.950 --> 00:15:09.420
until
706
00:15:09.520 --> 00:15:10.310
they make this change.
707
00:15:10.400 --> 00:15:12.670
You see a dotted line here that signifies this change.
708
00:15:13.060 --> 00:15:14.360
It was about 7 points.
709
00:15:14.540 --> 00:15:18.250
Now they are showing a 14-point lead
710
00:15:18.620 --> 00:15:19.500
for Democrats.
711
00:15:19.710 --> 00:15:20.390
You might ask,
712
00:15:20.500 --> 00:15:22.160
how the hell does that chart
713
00:15:22.520 --> 00:15:23.600
get into
714
00:15:23.880 --> 00:15:24.150
the,
715
00:15:24.220 --> 00:15:25.200
uh,
716
00:15:25.860 --> 00:15:28.240
the conversation about the most optimistic
717
00:15:28.530 --> 00:15:30.420
possible moment here for the GOP?
718
00:15:30.460 --> 00:15:31.680
And that's a great question,
719
00:15:31.810 --> 00:15:33.450
because a 14-point generic ballot
720
00:15:33.700 --> 00:15:34.160
is.
721
00:15:34.840 --> 00:15:36.070
Utter catastrophe.
722
00:15:36.160 --> 00:15:36.310
I mean,
723
00:15:36.400 --> 00:15:36.550
I,
724
00:15:36.680 --> 00:15:36.840
like,
725
00:15:36.880 --> 00:15:37.540
it is
726
00:15:38.160 --> 00:15:38.750
2018,
727
00:15:38.770 --> 00:15:39.190
you think of,
728
00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:41.190
I think that's the beginning of catastrophe levels.
729
00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:42.210
2018,
730
00:15:42.560 --> 00:15:42.710
very,
731
00:15:42.830 --> 00:15:44.150
very bad year for Republicans.
732
00:15:44.280 --> 00:15:45.860
Everything kind of went the wrong way.
733
00:15:46.370 --> 00:15:49.830
That is like the beginning of what I would call catastrophe land,
734
00:15:49.920 --> 00:15:51.020
and that is where the,
735
00:15:51.160 --> 00:15:51.660
uh,
736
00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:52.270
the voters,
737
00:15:52.360 --> 00:15:52.550
uh,
738
00:15:52.800 --> 00:15:56.010
seem to be when you look at an average poll right around 2018.
739
00:15:58.270 --> 00:15:59.020
The difference there,
740
00:15:59.110 --> 00:15:59.780
that dotted line,
741
00:15:59.910 --> 00:16:00.500
what it signifies,
742
00:16:00.550 --> 00:16:02.620
and then we have another chart here that shows the kind of the same thing,
743
00:16:02.740 --> 00:16:03.420
same dotted line.
744
00:16:03.510 --> 00:16:03.900
This is the,
745
00:16:03.950 --> 00:16:04.030
uh,
746
00:16:04.150 --> 00:16:04.940
YouGov again,
747
00:16:05.160 --> 00:16:05.820
who's leading among,
748
00:16:05.910 --> 00:16:06.070
uh,
749
00:16:06.350 --> 00:16:07.260
in the generic ballot.
750
00:16:07.390 --> 00:16:07.500
Uh,
751
00:16:07.760 --> 00:16:07.940
again,
752
00:16:07.990 --> 00:16:10.450
you see a +7 for registered voters.
753
00:16:11.070 --> 00:16:12.730
Likely voters is +14.
754
00:16:12.950 --> 00:16:16.380
YouGov just turned on their likely voter screen,
755
00:16:16.590 --> 00:16:17.450
and what that does,
756
00:16:17.510 --> 00:16:18.690
I've talked about it a few times,
757
00:16:18.790 --> 00:16:19.740
is basically say,
758
00:16:19.830 --> 00:16:20.250
hey,
759
00:16:20.670 --> 00:16:20.780
yeah,
760
00:16:20.910 --> 00:16:21.580
sure you're registered,
761
00:16:21.630 --> 00:16:23.010
but are you actually gonna show up?
762
00:16:23.790 --> 00:16:25.030
Are you actually going to
763
00:16:25.530 --> 00:16:25.760
You could,
764
00:16:25.890 --> 00:16:26.840
you could show that chart a little bit longer.
765
00:16:26.890 --> 00:16:26.930
Uh,
766
00:16:27.490 --> 00:16:28.790
actually gonna show up to the polls.
767
00:16:29.650 --> 00:16:30.470
That is a,
768
00:16:30.530 --> 00:16:31.320
a big question.
769
00:16:31.410 --> 00:16:32.590
You see that split
770
00:16:32.690 --> 00:16:33.520
that we're talking about here,
771
00:16:33.570 --> 00:16:36.120
that purple line at the top shows likely voters plus 14,
772
00:16:36.210 --> 00:16:38.200
while registered voters are still showing +7.
773
00:16:38.290 --> 00:16:41.910
Now registered voters plus 7 for Democrats is still a bad year for Republicans,
774
00:16:42.250 --> 00:16:43.840
but a lot of the movement you've seen,
775
00:16:43.970 --> 00:16:45.830
a lot of the catastrophe talk
776
00:16:46.000 --> 00:16:47.800
comes from changes like this,
777
00:16:48.090 --> 00:16:48.960
where we're seeing a,
778
00:16:49.090 --> 00:16:49.430
uh,
779
00:16:50.090 --> 00:16:50.280
the,
780
00:16:50.470 --> 00:16:52.880
these pollsters are putting in their likely voter screens,
781
00:16:53.050 --> 00:16:54.030
and this is stuff like.
782
00:16:54.520 --> 00:16:54.820
Uh,
783
00:16:55.400 --> 00:16:57.510
this is stuff like asking basic questions.
784
00:16:57.720 --> 00:16:58.130
Hey,
785
00:16:58.480 --> 00:16:59.770
you've registered to vote,
786
00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:00.510
uh,
787
00:17:00.760 --> 00:17:01.030
you know,
788
00:17:01.150 --> 00:17:01.500
you can,
789
00:17:01.580 --> 00:17:01.830
uh,
790
00:17:02.320 --> 00:17:02.670
now,
791
00:17:03.240 --> 00:17:04.310
are you likely to show up?
792
00:17:04.420 --> 00:17:04.510
Like,
793
00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:04.950
for example,
794
00:17:05.069 --> 00:17:05.790
you've registered to vote,
795
00:17:05.839 --> 00:17:07.390
but you haven't voted in 5 straight elections.
796
00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:08.349
Are you likely to vote?
797
00:17:08.880 --> 00:17:09.599
Probably not.
798
00:17:09.760 --> 00:17:10.470
Some people just ask,
799
00:17:10.560 --> 00:17:10.710
hey,
800
00:17:10.800 --> 00:17:13.099
are you definitely gonna vote or are you just kind of thinking about it?
801
00:17:13.170 --> 00:17:13.990
If they say definitely,
802
00:17:14.079 --> 00:17:15.270
then they go through the likely voter screen.
803
00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:16.660
There's a bunch of different ways to do this.
804
00:17:17.099 --> 00:17:19.650
But the bottom line is those likely voter screens aren't always right.
805
00:17:19.740 --> 00:17:19.930
In fact,
806
00:17:19.980 --> 00:17:22.210
that's kind of the reason why some of these things miss.
807
00:17:22.460 --> 00:17:22.690
They,
808
00:17:22.819 --> 00:17:23.520
they think
809
00:17:23.660 --> 00:17:26.400
people with lower education levels aren't gonna show up at the polls.
810
00:17:26.819 --> 00:17:28.290
Pollsters got burned by that one,
811
00:17:28.569 --> 00:17:29.680
year after year after year.
812
00:17:29.820 --> 00:17:31.910
You might remember 2016 being one of them,
813
00:17:32.140 --> 00:17:32.260
right?
814
00:17:32.380 --> 00:17:32.650
They thought,
815
00:17:32.740 --> 00:17:33.090
oh gosh,
816
00:17:33.180 --> 00:17:33.300
well,
817
00:17:33.460 --> 00:17:35.210
we're gonna screen by education levels.
818
00:17:35.230 --> 00:17:35.680
If you
819
00:17:36.060 --> 00:17:36.810
didn't go to college,
820
00:17:36.940 --> 00:17:37.010
well,
821
00:17:37.060 --> 00:17:38.170
you're probably less likely to,
822
00:17:38.300 --> 00:17:39.190
to show up to vote.
823
00:17:39.340 --> 00:17:39.490
Well,
824
00:17:39.660 --> 00:17:41.050
the people who didn't go to college were like,
825
00:17:41.140 --> 00:17:41.290
uh,
826
00:17:41.380 --> 00:17:41.530
yeah,
827
00:17:41.580 --> 00:17:42.320
I'm showing up.
828
00:17:42.620 --> 00:17:44.050
They were passionate about that election.
829
00:17:44.480 --> 00:17:47.220
It is a mem it is a a bit of a way
830
00:17:47.400 --> 00:17:47.990
to mention,
831
00:17:48.120 --> 00:17:48.230
uh,
832
00:17:48.320 --> 00:17:48.950
to measure,
833
00:17:49.080 --> 00:17:49.450
um,
834
00:17:49.720 --> 00:17:50.620
enthusiasm.
835
00:17:50.960 --> 00:17:52.470
If you're really enthusiastic to vote,
836
00:17:52.560 --> 00:17:53.390
if you're telling people that,
837
00:17:53.470 --> 00:17:53.550
yeah,
838
00:17:53.600 --> 00:17:54.270
I'm definitely voting,
839
00:17:54.320 --> 00:17:55.180
I'm not gonna miss this for,
840
00:17:55.320 --> 00:17:56.220
for my entire life,
841
00:17:56.960 --> 00:17:58.900
you're more likely to get through that likely voter screen.
842
00:17:58.960 --> 00:18:00.270
So it does tell us something,
843
00:18:00.440 --> 00:18:01.740
but that doesn't mean they did this right.
844
00:18:02.020 --> 00:18:05.670
That it doesn't the jump that you've seen over the past couple of weeks.
845
00:18:05.950 --> 00:18:07.080
Has something to do
846
00:18:07.220 --> 00:18:08.330
with that particular look.
847
00:18:08.420 --> 00:18:08.600
Now,
848
00:18:08.620 --> 00:18:09.340
another thing I wanna look at,
849
00:18:09.380 --> 00:18:10.330
this is from Third Way.
850
00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:11.240
Third Way is a,
851
00:18:11.550 --> 00:18:11.730
uh,
852
00:18:11.900 --> 00:18:13.370
a group that they try to,
853
00:18:13.660 --> 00:18:14.570
they're more like moderate,
854
00:18:14.640 --> 00:18:14.770
right?
855
00:18:14.820 --> 00:18:17.000
They try to focus on moderates and how
856
00:18:17.290 --> 00:18:20.330
moderates react in elections and how they are important in elections.
857
00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:22.210
They're trying to draw attention to moderates.
858
00:18:22.270 --> 00:18:23.340
So I understand the context here,
859
00:18:23.380 --> 00:18:24.200
but this is a poll,
860
00:18:24.360 --> 00:18:24.450
uh,
861
00:18:24.540 --> 00:18:24.660
and,
862
00:18:24.740 --> 00:18:25.010
and they,
863
00:18:25.100 --> 00:18:25.930
they look at this data,
864
00:18:26.020 --> 00:18:27.370
which is pretty interesting.
865
00:18:27.660 --> 00:18:29.280
What they say is basically if
866
00:18:29.490 --> 00:18:31.330
conservatives have to hold 90%,
867
00:18:31.530 --> 00:18:33.370
let's say conservatives get 90% of their voters,
868
00:18:33.620 --> 00:18:34.650
Republicans get 90%.
869
00:18:34.950 --> 00:18:35.060
Um,
870
00:18:35.150 --> 00:18:36.860
this is actually done by conservative and liberal.
871
00:18:37.070 --> 00:18:37.290
If
872
00:18:37.660 --> 00:18:39.380
conservatives go 90% Republican,
873
00:18:39.470 --> 00:18:40.800
liberals go 90% Democrat,
874
00:18:40.990 --> 00:18:42.410
what has to happen with moderates
875
00:18:42.590 --> 00:18:43.420
in each state?
876
00:18:43.710 --> 00:18:45.420
And this is what has to happen.
877
00:18:45.750 --> 00:18:45.820
Uh,
878
00:18:45.950 --> 00:18:47.980
and this is one of the reasons why I've liked the Hinson race,
879
00:18:48.070 --> 00:18:48.140
which,
880
00:18:48.200 --> 00:18:48.460
by the way,
881
00:18:48.590 --> 00:18:49.880
terrible poll for Hinson today.
882
00:18:50.110 --> 00:18:50.180
Uh,
883
00:18:50.470 --> 00:18:50.860
she is down,
884
00:18:50.990 --> 00:18:51.250
I think,
885
00:18:51.270 --> 00:18:51.780
8.
886
00:18:52.070 --> 00:18:52.180
I,
887
00:18:52.270 --> 00:18:52.380
I,
888
00:18:52.470 --> 00:18:52.580
you know,
889
00:18:52.630 --> 00:18:53.460
it was a Marist poll.
890
00:18:53.590 --> 00:18:54.740
Marist polls famously,
891
00:18:54.870 --> 00:18:54.990
uh,
892
00:18:55.150 --> 00:18:55.530
do not,
893
00:18:55.670 --> 00:18:55.900
uh,
894
00:18:56.270 --> 00:18:56.380
do,
895
00:18:56.550 --> 00:18:58.800
do justice to Republican candidates at times.
896
00:18:58.990 --> 00:18:59.220
But,
897
00:18:59.460 --> 00:18:59.680
uh,
898
00:19:00.030 --> 00:19:00.660
the reason why,
899
00:19:00.790 --> 00:19:00.940
uh,
900
00:19:01.150 --> 00:19:01.180
this,
901
00:19:01.350 --> 00:19:02.400
there's some optimism here.
902
00:19:02.750 --> 00:19:03.100
Look at these.
903
00:19:03.230 --> 00:19:04.130
Numbers they have to hit.
904
00:19:04.380 --> 00:19:04.730
For example,
905
00:19:04.860 --> 00:19:05.330
in Iowa,
906
00:19:05.380 --> 00:19:07.340
they have to win 75%
907
00:19:07.540 --> 00:19:08.410
of moderate voters.
908
00:19:08.580 --> 00:19:10.330
Right now they're winning 63%.
909
00:19:10.540 --> 00:19:11.090
In Alaska,
910
00:19:11.140 --> 00:19:12.410
they have to win 74%.
911
00:19:12.540 --> 00:19:14.650
Right now they're winning 66% of the voters.
912
00:19:14.860 --> 00:19:15.520
In Texas,
913
00:19:15.770 --> 00:19:16.540
Tallarico
914
00:19:16.690 --> 00:19:18.970
has to win 73% of moderate voters.
915
00:19:19.060 --> 00:19:20.750
Right now he's winning 65%.
916
00:19:21.020 --> 00:19:21.690
In Ohio,
917
00:19:21.980 --> 00:19:23.020
72%
918
00:19:23.180 --> 00:19:23.530
of,
919
00:19:23.630 --> 00:19:23.730
of,
920
00:19:23.870 --> 00:19:24.240
of,
921
00:19:24.390 --> 00:19:24.810
um,
922
00:19:25.030 --> 00:19:25.040
uh,
923
00:19:25.180 --> 00:19:26.050
moderate voters.
924
00:19:26.430 --> 00:19:26.730
Uh,
925
00:19:27.070 --> 00:19:27.420
and they,
926
00:19:27.510 --> 00:19:29.260
and right now they're only winning 62%.
927
00:19:29.350 --> 00:19:29.910
This is a race where,
928
00:19:30.110 --> 00:19:30.320
by the way,
929
00:19:30.350 --> 00:19:31.270
I'm pretty optimistic,
930
00:19:31.400 --> 00:19:31.420
uh,
931
00:19:31.550 --> 00:19:32.650
for Sherrod Brown,
932
00:19:32.920 --> 00:19:34.320
the Democratic candidate there.
933
00:19:34.510 --> 00:19:35.510
But you see there's a gap.
934
00:19:35.670 --> 00:19:36.660
Georgia and North Carolina,
935
00:19:36.710 --> 00:19:37.700
they're doing what they need to do.
936
00:19:37.790 --> 00:19:38.850
Ossoff and Cooper.
937
00:19:39.070 --> 00:19:39.580
New Hampshire,
938
00:19:39.630 --> 00:19:39.740
we,
939
00:19:39.790 --> 00:19:39.900
we,
940
00:19:39.990 --> 00:19:40.220
this,
941
00:19:40.350 --> 00:19:41.340
the data is not in yet.
942
00:19:41.520 --> 00:19:41.590
Uh,
943
00:19:41.710 --> 00:19:42.380
El Sayed,
944
00:19:42.540 --> 00:19:44.030
you have to get 62% of the moderates,
945
00:19:44.070 --> 00:19:45.150
he's only winning 54%.
946
00:19:45.310 --> 00:19:45.700
In Maine,
947
00:19:45.750 --> 00:19:47.300
you have to win 51% of the moderates,
948
00:19:47.470 --> 00:19:48.460
only winning 46%.
949
00:19:48.590 --> 00:19:51.210
This is a pattern that is really consistent throughout this data.
950
00:19:51.390 --> 00:19:51.500
Now,
951
00:19:51.550 --> 00:19:51.900
you might say,
952
00:19:51.970 --> 00:19:52.020
well,
953
00:19:52.150 --> 00:19:52.550
wait a minute.
954
00:19:52.980 --> 00:19:53.930
And they're winning all the polls,
955
00:19:54.100 --> 00:19:54.210
why,
956
00:19:54.300 --> 00:19:55.050
how can that be right?
957
00:19:55.180 --> 00:19:57.120
The reason why that's right,
958
00:19:57.410 --> 00:19:59.040
why both pieces of information
959
00:19:59.220 --> 00:19:59.920
are right,
960
00:20:00.120 --> 00:20:01.970
is because as of right now,
961
00:20:02.260 --> 00:20:04.430
we're seeing people like James Tallarico
962
00:20:04.580 --> 00:20:07.170
pick off more than 10% of Republicans.
963
00:20:08.140 --> 00:20:09.160
That might hold.
964
00:20:09.380 --> 00:20:09.540
I mean,
965
00:20:09.660 --> 00:20:09.730
like,
966
00:20:09.820 --> 00:20:09.970
you know,
967
00:20:10.020 --> 00:20:12.250
a guy like Paxson has his issues and like that,
968
00:20:12.380 --> 00:20:13.420
so this might hold,
969
00:20:13.700 --> 00:20:13.850
um,
970
00:20:13.980 --> 00:20:15.790
but it is a difficult lift
971
00:20:16.060 --> 00:20:17.040
for a,
972
00:20:17.180 --> 00:20:18.330
a left-wing candidate,
973
00:20:18.540 --> 00:20:21.170
some certainly someone like El Sayed or Troy Jackson
974
00:20:21.450 --> 00:20:24.450
to pick off a moderate candidate against Susan Collins,
975
00:20:24.500 --> 00:20:27.810
who is very moderate of of her own rights.
976
00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:28.750
To,
977
00:20:28.840 --> 00:20:29.570
to do that,
978
00:20:29.800 --> 00:20:31.130
as we get closer to the election,
979
00:20:31.380 --> 00:20:34.220
you think a lot of those Republicans are gonna go to the Republican side,
980
00:20:34.360 --> 00:20:36.490
a lot of those Democrats go to the Democratic side,
981
00:20:36.640 --> 00:20:38.220
and you have to win those moderates.
982
00:20:38.520 --> 00:20:38.940
Are,
983
00:20:39.360 --> 00:20:41.230
are Democratic candidates doing enough?
984
00:20:41.360 --> 00:20:41.790
Right now,
985
00:20:41.960 --> 00:20:42.590
for the most part,
986
00:20:42.720 --> 00:20:43.910
the answer to that is no.
987
00:20:44.120 --> 00:20:45.550
So if people do come home,
988
00:20:45.600 --> 00:20:46.310
and that isn't if,
989
00:20:46.330 --> 00:20:47.430
it is our thesis statement.
990
00:20:48.310 --> 00:20:49.370
But it is an if.
991
00:20:49.470 --> 00:20:50.930
We don't know if that's gonna happen.
992
00:20:51.190 --> 00:20:51.480
If
993
00:20:51.630 --> 00:20:52.180
people like,
994
00:20:52.310 --> 00:20:52.700
for example,
995
00:20:52.750 --> 00:20:53.340
in Texas,
996
00:20:53.510 --> 00:20:54.330
in Iowa,
997
00:20:54.670 --> 00:20:54.780
decide,
998
00:20:54.870 --> 00:20:55.020
hey,
999
00:20:55.070 --> 00:20:55.420
wait a minute,
1000
00:20:55.510 --> 00:20:56.150
we're Republicans,
1001
00:20:56.190 --> 00:20:57.020
I'm not gonna vote for the,
1002
00:20:57.110 --> 00:20:58.430
for this left-wing candidate.
1003
00:20:58.850 --> 00:20:59.930
If they decide that,
1004
00:21:01.080 --> 00:21:01.300
Well,
1005
00:21:01.460 --> 00:21:02.590
you've got something here.
1006
00:21:02.720 --> 00:21:02.790
Um,
1007
00:21:02.880 --> 00:21:05.340
let me give you a couple of pieces before we go cause I'm a little bit long.
1008
00:21:07.180 --> 00:21:07.510
Few,
1009
00:21:07.640 --> 00:21:07.990
um,
1010
00:21:08.320 --> 00:21:09.830
places of weird optimism,
1011
00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:10.550
uh,
1012
00:21:10.760 --> 00:21:11.910
for Republicans.
1013
00:21:12.650 --> 00:21:13.790
Minnesota Senate.
1014
00:21:14.210 --> 00:21:16.820
Peggy Flanagan is the very progressive candidate.
1015
00:21:17.250 --> 00:21:17.790
She is,
1016
00:21:17.930 --> 00:21:18.320
uh,
1017
00:21:18.530 --> 00:21:20.350
she kind of won a battle,
1018
00:21:20.570 --> 00:21:20.680
uh,
1019
00:21:20.770 --> 00:21:23.010
there that we did very well on in the primaries,
1020
00:21:23.270 --> 00:21:25.400
where she was going up against a more,
1021
00:21:25.480 --> 00:21:25.720
um,
1022
00:21:25.810 --> 00:21:27.560
establishment candidate and wound up winning.
1023
00:21:28.140 --> 00:21:29.630
She's now the candidate against
1024
00:21:29.900 --> 00:21:32.040
what I believe is a pretty good candidate
1025
00:21:32.260 --> 00:21:33.930
in Republican Minnesota,
1026
00:21:34.140 --> 00:21:34.930
Michelle Tafoya.
1027
00:21:34.980 --> 00:21:36.090
You may know her from ESPN.
1028
00:21:36.190 --> 00:21:37.050
She's a sports broadcaster.
1029
00:21:37.140 --> 00:21:37.210
Now,
1030
00:21:37.260 --> 00:21:37.570
we don't,
1031
00:21:37.740 --> 00:21:40.370
she's not been like tested on a big political stage,
1032
00:21:40.420 --> 00:21:40.850
so we don't know,
1033
00:21:40.940 --> 00:21:42.130
but she's a very good communicator,
1034
00:21:42.460 --> 00:21:43.290
seems to be a smart,
1035
00:21:43.500 --> 00:21:43.690
uh,
1036
00:21:43.820 --> 00:21:43.970
uh,
1037
00:21:44.020 --> 00:21:44.530
lady.
1038
00:21:44.780 --> 00:21:44.970
Um,
1039
00:21:45.100 --> 00:21:47.360
and here's what that market looks like right now.
1040
00:21:47.780 --> 00:21:48.070
Um,
1041
00:21:48.300 --> 00:21:48.360
and,
1042
00:21:48.420 --> 00:21:51.010
and right now you see Peggy Flagan's up at 90%,
1043
00:21:51.300 --> 00:21:51.730
OK?
1044
00:21:52.020 --> 00:21:52.320
Um,
1045
00:21:52.700 --> 00:21:53.330
she's a heavy,
1046
00:21:53.420 --> 00:21:53.690
heavy,
1047
00:21:53.820 --> 00:21:54.390
heavy favorite,
1048
00:21:54.500 --> 00:21:55.850
and this is because of the Democratic.
1049
00:21:56.360 --> 00:21:56.740
Um,
1050
00:21:57.000 --> 00:21:57.230
uh,
1051
00:21:57.440 --> 00:21:57.670
uh,
1052
00:21:57.920 --> 00:21:58.190
climate.
1053
00:21:58.320 --> 00:21:59.190
This has been pretty clear.
1054
00:21:59.360 --> 00:22:02.380
The polling though is actually pretty close in this race.
1055
00:22:02.640 --> 00:22:02.950
And,
1056
00:22:03.120 --> 00:22:03.270
you know,
1057
00:22:03.360 --> 00:22:05.670
if you believe the Democrats are gonna continue to,
1058
00:22:05.800 --> 00:22:06.750
to get gains here,
1059
00:22:06.800 --> 00:22:10.110
I like the value of Peggy Flanagan at 90.2%.
1060
00:22:10.200 --> 00:22:11.420
If you're in that camp,
1061
00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:11.910
um,
1062
00:22:12.240 --> 00:22:13.620
where you believe Peggy is,
1063
00:22:13.800 --> 00:22:13.950
uh,
1064
00:22:14.120 --> 00:22:16.030
going to win that race because of the climate.
1065
00:22:16.300 --> 00:22:18.420
90.2% is a nice price to get in Minnesota,
1066
00:22:18.470 --> 00:22:19.970
where Republicans can't seem to win,
1067
00:22:20.110 --> 00:22:20.270
uh,
1068
00:22:20.550 --> 00:22:21.730
even in good years.
1069
00:22:21.990 --> 00:22:22.060
Uh,
1070
00:22:22.190 --> 00:22:23.580
this isn't probably gonna be a bad year.
1071
00:22:23.750 --> 00:22:24.900
DeFoya is a strong candidate,
1072
00:22:25.090 --> 00:22:25.220
so,
1073
00:22:25.270 --> 00:22:27.700
but it's interesting the polling has been that close.
1074
00:22:27.950 --> 00:22:28.540
Another one here,
1075
00:22:28.680 --> 00:22:29.420
Oregon Governor.
1076
00:22:29.500 --> 00:22:30.140
I've talked to you about this.
1077
00:22:30.190 --> 00:22:32.360
This is one of my favorite races when it comes to,
1078
00:22:32.670 --> 00:22:32.780
uh,
1079
00:22:32.910 --> 00:22:35.050
prediction markets of one of my biggest positions
1080
00:22:35.190 --> 00:22:36.780
is on Tina Kottek there.
1081
00:22:37.070 --> 00:22:37.770
The polling.
1082
00:22:38.590 --> 00:22:41.620
Has been really minimal when you talk about what could be reliable,
1083
00:22:41.830 --> 00:22:42.900
seen as reliable polling.
1084
00:22:42.950 --> 00:22:43.970
Let's see the market though.
1085
00:22:44.190 --> 00:22:44.380
Um,
1086
00:22:44.590 --> 00:22:45.700
this is where it shows right now.
1087
00:22:45.840 --> 00:22:47.590
Katina Kotak's at 85%.
1088
00:22:47.980 --> 00:22:48.090
Uh,
1089
00:22:48.420 --> 00:22:49.880
Christine Drazen has,
1090
00:22:50.180 --> 00:22:50.330
uh,
1091
00:22:50.650 --> 00:22:50.930
hit,
1092
00:22:51.340 --> 00:22:51.530
has,
1093
00:22:51.740 --> 00:22:52.930
is led in some of these polls.
1094
00:22:52.980 --> 00:22:54.350
Now they're polls that she's sponsored,
1095
00:22:54.420 --> 00:22:55.650
they're internal polls,
1096
00:22:55.980 --> 00:22:58.300
but there's every reason to believe this is a little
1097
00:22:58.420 --> 00:23:00.720
way too close to comfort for the Democrats in Oregon.
1098
00:23:00.980 --> 00:23:01.440
She's very,
1099
00:23:01.940 --> 00:23:02.500
seemingly very,
1100
00:23:02.530 --> 00:23:02.970
very close.
1101
00:23:03.100 --> 00:23:04.480
She's been close before.
1102
00:23:04.980 --> 00:23:07.770
I tend to believe my thesis here is people come home.
1103
00:23:07.940 --> 00:23:08.690
People in Oregon are,
1104
00:23:08.800 --> 00:23:09.390
are gonna go to the.
1105
00:23:09.640 --> 00:23:10.380
Side mostly,
1106
00:23:10.560 --> 00:23:12.910
and at the end of the day are not gonna want to elect a Republican.
1107
00:23:12.960 --> 00:23:14.790
That's kind of my thesis on this particular race.
1108
00:23:14.880 --> 00:23:15.180
But
1109
00:23:15.500 --> 00:23:18.750
Republican optimism is somewhat justified in Oregon as well.
1110
00:23:18.880 --> 00:23:20.580
And then in New Hampshire is another case
1111
00:23:20.760 --> 00:23:21.310
where you'd look at this.
1112
00:23:21.440 --> 00:23:22.670
New Hampshire is a less,
1113
00:23:22.960 --> 00:23:23.150
you know,
1114
00:23:23.230 --> 00:23:24.110
less blue or red,
1115
00:23:24.240 --> 00:23:25.980
so it's hard to know with our thesis statement,
1116
00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:26.590
but this is,
1117
00:23:26.610 --> 00:23:26.710
uh,
1118
00:23:26.840 --> 00:23:28.300
the Sununu Pappas race,
1119
00:23:28.320 --> 00:23:28.700
and,
1120
00:23:28.920 --> 00:23:28.950
uh,
1121
00:23:29.110 --> 00:23:31.110
Chris Pappas is at 84%.
1122
00:23:31.430 --> 00:23:32.540
Sannu is at 16%.
1123
00:23:32.630 --> 00:23:35.570
The polling is much closer than that market would show you though.
1124
00:23:35.790 --> 00:23:35.860
Uh,
1125
00:23:36.030 --> 00:23:36.260
Sannu,
1126
00:23:36.550 --> 00:23:36.700
uh,
1127
00:23:36.870 --> 00:23:38.060
had some good polls there,
1128
00:23:38.310 --> 00:23:38.330
uh,
1129
00:23:38.510 --> 00:23:40.470
that looks like it's close to very well known in the state,
1130
00:23:40.510 --> 00:23:41.930
and that's a good part of the reason there.
1131
00:23:42.030 --> 00:23:42.220
Again,
1132
00:23:42.260 --> 00:23:44.180
a strong candidate from Republicans.
1133
00:23:44.750 --> 00:23:47.190
I tend to still think Pappas will probably win here,
1134
00:23:47.310 --> 00:23:49.910
but there are reasons for optimism for Republicans there.
1135
00:23:50.080 --> 00:23:50.260
So,
1136
00:23:50.470 --> 00:23:53.370
basically what I'm saying here is Republicans absolutely have a chance
1137
00:23:53.510 --> 00:23:54.760
to win the Senate still.
1138
00:23:55.030 --> 00:23:55.140
Uh,
1139
00:23:55.350 --> 00:23:57.940
there are many weird opportunities for pickups
1140
00:23:57.940 --> 00:23:59.870
like that that they might actually get.
1141
00:24:00.070 --> 00:24:01.410
And if this polling,
1142
00:24:01.630 --> 00:24:01.860
I mean,
1143
00:24:02.030 --> 00:24:02.890
the downside of this is,
1144
00:24:02.910 --> 00:24:05.260
I will tell you that that that what Patrick has said about the
1145
00:24:05.260 --> 00:24:09.140
polling kind of coming back towards Republicans has not happened in the timeline.
1146
00:24:09.460 --> 00:24:09.790
That we,
1147
00:24:09.930 --> 00:24:10.040
uh,
1148
00:24:10.190 --> 00:24:11.760
saw it necessarily in that last race.
1149
00:24:11.810 --> 00:24:12.270
And so
1150
00:24:12.450 --> 00:24:13.120
now with more data,
1151
00:24:13.180 --> 00:24:14.250
a month more data,
1152
00:24:14.650 --> 00:24:16.380
Democrats have some reason for optimism there.
1153
00:24:16.610 --> 00:24:16.990
But
1154
00:24:17.370 --> 00:24:18.730
Republicans have a path here.
1155
00:24:18.770 --> 00:24:19.450
It's not
1156
00:24:19.570 --> 00:24:21.440
like they have to get destroyed.
1157
00:24:21.690 --> 00:24:22.060
If,
1158
00:24:22.250 --> 00:24:23.840
if they can get their base activated,
1159
00:24:24.040 --> 00:24:26.270
there's still a case for optimism for the GOP for sure.
1160
00:24:26.450 --> 00:24:26.580
OK,
1161
00:24:26.690 --> 00:24:27.240
we're gonna take a break,
1162
00:24:27.370 --> 00:24:28.700
come back on the other side,
1163
00:24:28.930 --> 00:24:29.080
uh,
1164
00:24:29.210 --> 00:24:29.760
with more.
1165
00:24:29.900 --> 00:24:31.640
Make sure to join us at predictableshow.com.
1166
00:24:31.730 --> 00:24:31.970
By the way,
1167
00:24:32.090 --> 00:24:32.200
if you,
1168
00:24:32.330 --> 00:24:33.160
if you heard all those pictures,
1169
00:24:33.250 --> 00:24:34.470
like I can't keep track of all those picks.
1170
00:24:34.490 --> 00:24:36.120
He just talked about like 10 different races.
1171
00:24:36.450 --> 00:24:37.230
I've got a position in this.
1172
00:24:37.250 --> 00:24:38.040
I've got a position in that.
1173
00:24:38.120 --> 00:24:38.680
Shout out to.
1174
00:24:39.240 --> 00:24:40.220
You don't have to listen to me.
1175
00:24:40.320 --> 00:24:41.670
You just go to predictableShow.com.
1176
00:24:41.840 --> 00:24:43.510
Every single one of my positions in prediction
1177
00:24:43.510 --> 00:24:46.820
markets from politics to sports to elections to
1178
00:24:47.120 --> 00:24:47.590
uh culture,
1179
00:24:47.920 --> 00:24:48.270
everything
1180
00:24:48.440 --> 00:24:51.790
is listed for premium subscribers at predictableShow.com.
1181
00:24:52.120 --> 00:24:52.500
So,
1182
00:24:52.590 --> 00:24:54.130
you can look at it in your own time.
1183
00:24:54.280 --> 00:24:55.030
It's up there now.
1184
00:24:55.160 --> 00:24:55.670
Back in a second.
1185
00:25:13.230 --> 00:25:15.890
I want to bring in Jesse Rosen and Tanner Lux to the program.
1186
00:25:15.990 --> 00:25:18.420
They're from the Predict 2026 conference.
1187
00:25:18.510 --> 00:25:19.820
This is happening in New York City,
1188
00:25:19.870 --> 00:25:21.710
December 7th to the 9th.
1189
00:25:21.990 --> 00:25:25.020
You can learn all about it at predict2026.org.
1190
00:25:25.270 --> 00:25:25.500
Guys,
1191
00:25:25.670 --> 00:25:26.500
thanks so much for coming on the program.
1192
00:25:26.590 --> 00:25:27.050
Appreciate it.
1193
00:25:27.800 --> 00:25:27.950
Yeah,
1194
00:25:28.080 --> 00:25:28.790
thank you for having us.
1195
00:25:28.920 --> 00:25:29.860
Excited to be here.
1196
00:25:30.040 --> 00:25:30.660
Yeah,
1197
00:25:31.120 --> 00:25:31.820
great to see you guys.
1198
00:25:32.000 --> 00:25:32.070
Uh,
1199
00:25:32.280 --> 00:25:33.430
tell me quick before we get started,
1200
00:25:33.520 --> 00:25:35.110
tell me a little bit about Predict 2026.
1201
00:25:35.190 --> 00:25:35.830
It's in New York.
1202
00:25:35.920 --> 00:25:36.270
I know it's,
1203
00:25:36.360 --> 00:25:37.870
it's in the New York Times
1204
00:25:38.180 --> 00:25:38.590
building.
1205
00:25:38.720 --> 00:25:38.790
Uh,
1206
00:25:38.880 --> 00:25:38.950
uh,
1207
00:25:39.120 --> 00:25:42.590
we did an event there a million years ago and that it's like an incredible room.
1208
00:25:42.680 --> 00:25:42.830
I mean,
1209
00:25:42.880 --> 00:25:44.610
it is legitimately impressive.
1210
00:25:44.880 --> 00:25:46.310
Tell me about the conference and what's going on there.
1211
00:25:47.830 --> 00:25:48.020
Yeah,
1212
00:25:48.150 --> 00:25:48.530
definitely,
1213
00:25:48.590 --> 00:25:49.450
and I'm sure
1214
00:25:49.560 --> 00:25:52.050
Jesse will have stuff to add um on top of what I say,
1215
00:25:52.070 --> 00:25:52.530
but
1216
00:25:52.950 --> 00:25:55.380
we are both prediction market traders.
1217
00:25:55.470 --> 00:25:55.930
I
1218
00:25:56.110 --> 00:25:57.980
came into prediction market trading from,
1219
00:25:58.110 --> 00:25:58.460
uh,
1220
00:25:58.630 --> 00:25:58.780
you know,
1221
00:25:58.870 --> 00:26:01.090
working on political campaigns and organizing political
1222
00:26:01.270 --> 00:26:01.970
events
1223
00:26:02.270 --> 00:26:04.480
to eventually trading on politics and then.
1224
00:26:05.060 --> 00:26:05.810
During that time,
1225
00:26:05.860 --> 00:26:06.210
I,
1226
00:26:06.340 --> 00:26:08.360
as I got into trading on politics,
1227
00:26:08.460 --> 00:26:09.290
making forecasts,
1228
00:26:09.310 --> 00:26:10.250
and I got better at that,
1229
00:26:10.340 --> 00:26:11.000
I really,
1230
00:26:11.180 --> 00:26:11.330
you know,
1231
00:26:11.420 --> 00:26:12.990
trading can be a very lonely activity,
1232
00:26:13.060 --> 00:26:15.290
and we wanted to do something for the community,
1233
00:26:15.660 --> 00:26:16.740
by the community,
1234
00:26:17.100 --> 00:26:18.040
and that's
1235
00:26:18.140 --> 00:26:18.880
really what I'm,
1236
00:26:18.900 --> 00:26:19.090
uh,
1237
00:26:19.340 --> 00:26:20.210
excited to say that we've,
1238
00:26:20.230 --> 00:26:20.450
uh,
1239
00:26:20.510 --> 00:26:21.210
we've put together.
1240
00:26:21.260 --> 00:26:22.490
We've got a great group of speakers,
1241
00:26:22.660 --> 00:26:23.450
great group of sponsors,
1242
00:26:23.500 --> 00:26:24.210
a lot of great,
1243
00:26:24.540 --> 00:26:24.730
you know,
1244
00:26:24.820 --> 00:26:25.050
all the,
1245
00:26:25.100 --> 00:26:26.880
all the major players in the space coming in to
1246
00:26:26.880 --> 00:26:28.800
talk about these markets we all know and love.
1247
00:26:30.260 --> 00:26:30.410
Yeah,
1248
00:26:30.540 --> 00:26:30.730
I mean,
1249
00:26:30.820 --> 00:26:31.050
I don't,
1250
00:26:31.140 --> 00:26:32.840
I don't have too much to add on top of that.
1251
00:26:32.860 --> 00:26:33.050
Um,
1252
00:26:33.180 --> 00:26:33.640
I'm a
1253
00:26:33.780 --> 00:26:35.290
liquidity provider in the space.
1254
00:26:35.380 --> 00:26:36.290
I do a lot of,
1255
00:26:36.330 --> 00:26:36.540
um,
1256
00:26:36.620 --> 00:26:38.040
liquidity provision on
1257
00:26:38.780 --> 00:26:40.450
politics markets as well as,
1258
00:26:40.540 --> 00:26:40.890
you know,
1259
00:26:41.260 --> 00:26:42.630
culture companies,
1260
00:26:42.820 --> 00:26:43.090
um,
1261
00:26:43.260 --> 00:26:44.660
lots of different categories,
1262
00:26:44.980 --> 00:26:45.600
and
1263
00:26:45.700 --> 00:26:47.640
I wanted there to be this space for,
1264
00:26:47.920 --> 00:26:48.170
you know,
1265
00:26:48.470 --> 00:26:50.360
traders to be
1266
00:26:51.100 --> 00:26:52.120
meeting each other,
1267
00:26:52.220 --> 00:26:52.570
you know,
1268
00:26:52.780 --> 00:26:53.280
like
1269
00:26:54.030 --> 00:26:55.570
collaborating in some way or another,
1270
00:26:55.660 --> 00:26:56.440
but also
1271
00:26:56.740 --> 00:26:59.550
for builders and researchers and
1272
00:26:59.860 --> 00:27:02.380
The regulators in the space to all be
1273
00:27:02.550 --> 00:27:04.910
really connecting and figuring out how
1274
00:27:04.910 --> 00:27:07.550
we're moving this full industry forward because
1275
00:27:07.550 --> 00:27:10.350
you know as you know things are moving so fast right now.
1276
00:27:10.740 --> 00:27:11.090
Um,
1277
00:27:11.260 --> 00:27:12.290
but it's hard to keep up,
1278
00:27:12.340 --> 00:27:13.960
and I think we all just need to like
1279
00:27:15.100 --> 00:27:16.250
figure out together where,
1280
00:27:16.420 --> 00:27:17.130
where we're going.
1281
00:27:17.420 --> 00:27:17.530
Yeah,
1282
00:27:17.900 --> 00:27:18.130
it's,
1283
00:27:18.260 --> 00:27:19.000
it's an amazing time,
1284
00:27:19.060 --> 00:27:19.410
honestly,
1285
00:27:19.700 --> 00:27:20.290
so much growing,
1286
00:27:20.320 --> 00:27:20.330
uh,
1287
00:27:20.460 --> 00:27:20.740
so fast.
1288
00:27:20.820 --> 00:27:21.850
I'm definitely gonna be up at this thing.
1289
00:27:21.910 --> 00:27:22.010
I,
1290
00:27:22.100 --> 00:27:23.050
I'm really excited to be there.
1291
00:27:23.100 --> 00:27:24.140
It's gonna be really cool.
1292
00:27:24.420 --> 00:27:24.670
Um,
1293
00:27:25.060 --> 00:27:25.250
let's,
1294
00:27:25.360 --> 00:27:26.900
let's talk a little bit about these markets though.
1295
00:27:27.010 --> 00:27:27.020
Uh,
1296
00:27:27.220 --> 00:27:27.250
we,
1297
00:27:27.420 --> 00:27:27.570
you know,
1298
00:27:27.660 --> 00:27:28.540
we do,
1299
00:27:28.980 --> 00:27:29.890
there's all sorts of different markets,
1300
00:27:29.910 --> 00:27:30.450
as we all know,
1301
00:27:30.500 --> 00:27:31.530
there's a market on everything.
1302
00:27:31.750 --> 00:27:31.970
Um,
1303
00:27:32.180 --> 00:27:32.930
we focus,
1304
00:27:33.180 --> 00:27:36.640
I would say most of our attention on politics and elections
1305
00:27:36.900 --> 00:27:38.010
cause that's just where I've always,
1306
00:27:38.140 --> 00:27:39.410
I've always been interested.
1307
00:27:39.760 --> 00:27:40.070
Um,
1308
00:27:40.360 --> 00:27:40.550
you know,
1309
00:27:40.650 --> 00:27:40.750
I,
1310
00:27:40.800 --> 00:27:40.910
I,
1311
00:27:40.960 --> 00:27:41.030
I,
1312
00:27:41.240 --> 00:27:41.700
Tanner,
1313
00:27:41.960 --> 00:27:43.310
you mentioned working in politics.
1314
00:27:44.240 --> 00:27:44.620
Does that,
1315
00:27:44.800 --> 00:27:44.970
you know,
1316
00:27:45.040 --> 00:27:45.710
does that help you?
1317
00:27:45.760 --> 00:27:45.910
I mean,
1318
00:27:46.000 --> 00:27:48.310
because you feel like there's a behind the scenes part of
1319
00:27:48.310 --> 00:27:50.210
working in politics that gives you a little bit of,
1320
00:27:50.320 --> 00:27:51.200
of knowledge
1321
00:27:51.360 --> 00:27:51.910
of just being
1322
00:27:52.200 --> 00:27:53.870
able to understand kind of like maybe,
1323
00:27:53.960 --> 00:27:54.310
uh,
1324
00:27:54.630 --> 00:27:57.250
disassemble the hype a little bit around a particular candidate.
1325
00:27:58.290 --> 00:27:58.520
Yeah,
1326
00:27:58.650 --> 00:27:58.840
I,
1327
00:27:58.930 --> 00:27:59.240
um,
1328
00:27:59.370 --> 00:28:00.040
I think it's,
1329
00:28:00.090 --> 00:28:03.120
it's very useful to have spent a lot of time both at the beginning
1330
00:28:03.120 --> 00:28:05.710
of my career in politics going door to door and talking to people.
1331
00:28:05.730 --> 00:28:06.550
You learn that
1332
00:28:06.810 --> 00:28:08.910
the candidates that people are really excited about
1333
00:28:08.910 --> 00:28:10.700
on the internet are not always the,
1334
00:28:10.890 --> 00:28:11.040
you know,
1335
00:28:11.170 --> 00:28:11.870
candidates that,
1336
00:28:11.970 --> 00:28:12.280
you know,
1337
00:28:12.490 --> 00:28:12.680
uh,
1338
00:28:12.850 --> 00:28:17.000
porch and patio voters in Michigan or Arizona are excited about,
1339
00:28:17.130 --> 00:28:17.580
so.
1340
00:28:18.120 --> 00:28:21.760
I think it gives you a grounded perspective for like my personal trading.
1341
00:28:21.800 --> 00:28:22.460
I think
1342
00:28:22.720 --> 00:28:24.020
it made me worse
1343
00:28:24.150 --> 00:28:24.780
at first,
1344
00:28:24.920 --> 00:28:25.150
you know,
1345
00:28:25.280 --> 00:28:27.190
coming into forecasting.
1346
00:28:27.480 --> 00:28:29.530
I carried a lot of personal
1347
00:28:29.760 --> 00:28:32.150
biases and personal thoughts about the way the
1348
00:28:32.150 --> 00:28:34.270
world works that weren't always in tune with.
1349
00:28:34.740 --> 00:28:35.010
You know,
1350
00:28:35.220 --> 00:28:35.940
exactly,
1351
00:28:36.180 --> 00:28:36.520
you know,
1352
00:28:36.660 --> 00:28:36.960
the
1353
00:28:37.100 --> 00:28:38.370
probabilities and forecasts,
1354
00:28:38.460 --> 00:28:38.960
but then
1355
00:28:39.100 --> 00:28:40.950
over time I think it's become a real
1356
00:28:41.340 --> 00:28:44.960
sustainable edge in my trading once I was able to sort of learn to think and,
1357
00:28:45.030 --> 00:28:45.250
you know,
1358
00:28:45.420 --> 00:28:45.920
more
1359
00:28:46.100 --> 00:28:47.690
Bayjian sort of terms,
1360
00:28:47.750 --> 00:28:47.970
it,
1361
00:28:48.100 --> 00:28:49.920
it really has been quite a resource.
1362
00:28:50.580 --> 00:28:50.650
Yeah,
1363
00:28:50.700 --> 00:28:52.250
it's interesting you say that we have a
1364
00:28:52.250 --> 00:28:54.290
predictable constitution where we try to like,
1365
00:28:54.420 --> 00:28:54.730
you know,
1366
00:28:55.180 --> 00:28:58.940
I try to remember all the dumb mistakes I've made over the years as a trading contract
1367
00:28:59.140 --> 00:29:00.420
and made it into a constitution.
1368
00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:02.650
Our 12th Amendment is don't invest with your heart.
1369
00:29:03.080 --> 00:29:03.430
And that's,
1370
00:29:03.480 --> 00:29:06.900
I think one of the hardest things for people to get past because
1371
00:29:07.110 --> 00:29:08.630
you want something so badly,
1372
00:29:08.650 --> 00:29:10.790
you want a particular candidate to win,
1373
00:29:11.120 --> 00:29:12.520
and then you look at those markets and you're like,
1374
00:29:12.560 --> 00:29:12.670
well,
1375
00:29:12.760 --> 00:29:13.360
wait a minute,
1376
00:29:13.760 --> 00:29:15.680
I think actually the other guy might win,
1377
00:29:16.160 --> 00:29:16.390
you know,
1378
00:29:16.520 --> 00:29:19.710
do I have the strength internally to actually go for that other candidate?
1379
00:29:19.730 --> 00:29:19.900
I,
1380
00:29:20.040 --> 00:29:21.740
it's more difficult than I think people would think.
1381
00:29:22.790 --> 00:29:23.020
Yeah,
1382
00:29:23.190 --> 00:29:23.300
yeah,
1383
00:29:23.430 --> 00:29:23.500
no,
1384
00:29:23.550 --> 00:29:25.420
there's a lot of challenges in it,
1385
00:29:25.510 --> 00:29:26.950
I think especially,
1386
00:29:27.510 --> 00:29:27.700
you know,
1387
00:29:28.070 --> 00:29:30.860
everyone's worse at forecasting on farther out time horizons,
1388
00:29:30.950 --> 00:29:32.740
just if you look at any of the data on,
1389
00:29:32.830 --> 00:29:35.330
on Briar scores and accuracy,
1390
00:29:35.630 --> 00:29:36.370
and I think
1391
00:29:36.630 --> 00:29:37.790
as people get less accurate,
1392
00:29:37.830 --> 00:29:39.900
as you have to start stacking assumptions,
1393
00:29:39.950 --> 00:29:41.250
you're relying on sort of
1394
00:29:41.900 --> 00:29:42.810
fundamental
1395
00:29:42.950 --> 00:29:44.010
world beliefs that
1396
00:29:44.370 --> 00:29:45.660
might not really be relevant,
1397
00:29:45.710 --> 00:29:47.260
you can come to these very extreme.
1398
00:29:47.850 --> 00:29:48.180
Uh,
1399
00:29:48.450 --> 00:29:50.270
conclusions in the long run are not
1400
00:29:50.520 --> 00:29:51.560
even so much extreme,
1401
00:29:51.650 --> 00:29:52.190
but just
1402
00:29:52.410 --> 00:29:52.720
something,
1403
00:29:52.810 --> 00:29:52.960
yeah,
1404
00:29:53.050 --> 00:29:53.360
that you,
1405
00:29:53.450 --> 00:29:54.230
you don't realize is,
1406
00:29:54.330 --> 00:29:55.360
is much closer to your,
1407
00:29:55.490 --> 00:29:56.830
to your heart than your mind.
1408
00:29:57.660 --> 00:29:57.920
Jesse,
1409
00:29:58.010 --> 00:29:58.280
what was,
1410
00:29:58.490 --> 00:30:00.610
what are the state of political markets right now?
1411
00:30:00.690 --> 00:30:01.000
Cause I think,
1412
00:30:01.050 --> 00:30:01.400
you know,
1413
00:30:01.770 --> 00:30:01.890
look,
1414
00:30:01.970 --> 00:30:02.620
I like sports,
1415
00:30:02.730 --> 00:30:03.520
I like going on,
1416
00:30:03.610 --> 00:30:06.240
I like predicting markets for using them for sports.
1417
00:30:06.330 --> 00:30:07.700
Like I have no problem with it at all.
1418
00:30:07.970 --> 00:30:08.580
But also like,
1419
00:30:08.610 --> 00:30:09.520
it gets all the attention,
1420
00:30:09.610 --> 00:30:10.040
it gets all,
1421
00:30:10.250 --> 00:30:10.360
you know,
1422
00:30:10.490 --> 00:30:11.350
gets all the anger,
1423
00:30:11.490 --> 00:30:11.590
uh,
1424
00:30:11.730 --> 00:30:12.680
gets all the hype.
1425
00:30:12.950 --> 00:30:13.140
Um,
1426
00:30:13.310 --> 00:30:13.460
you know,
1427
00:30:13.560 --> 00:30:16.070
predict prediction markets for politics is really how I came into this,
1428
00:30:16.190 --> 00:30:16.310
you know,
1429
00:30:16.390 --> 00:30:18.860
back to predicted back in the day and in,
1430
00:30:18.990 --> 00:30:19.710
in that world.
1431
00:30:20.110 --> 00:30:20.500
What is,
1432
00:30:20.670 --> 00:30:20.780
uh,
1433
00:30:21.110 --> 00:30:21.340
what is,
1434
00:30:21.630 --> 00:30:22.220
what are the state of,
1435
00:30:22.350 --> 00:30:23.140
of these markets today,
1436
00:30:23.190 --> 00:30:24.060
and I know they're growing,
1437
00:30:24.150 --> 00:30:25.220
but are they growing and,
1438
00:30:25.310 --> 00:30:25.500
you know,
1439
00:30:25.750 --> 00:30:28.540
and being as big a part of the pie as some people expect?
1440
00:30:29.770 --> 00:30:30.310
I think that,
1441
00:30:30.330 --> 00:30:30.550
you know,
1442
00:30:30.570 --> 00:30:33.440
the volumes are definitely growing on politics markets.
1443
00:30:33.570 --> 00:30:34.600
They're getting bigger,
1444
00:30:34.930 --> 00:30:35.460
um.
1445
00:30:36.060 --> 00:30:37.520
I think that they're still,
1446
00:30:38.020 --> 00:30:39.600
they're still at a point where
1447
00:30:39.740 --> 00:30:41.120
it's harder for
1448
00:30:41.510 --> 00:30:42.650
big businesses,
1449
00:30:42.860 --> 00:30:46.490
big trading firms to get as big of a slice of them as they want,
1450
00:30:46.580 --> 00:30:46.770
you know,
1451
00:30:46.860 --> 00:30:48.650
they want more liquidity in these markets,
1452
00:30:48.670 --> 00:30:49.850
and that's just something that's
1453
00:30:50.100 --> 00:30:51.410
building up over time.
1454
00:30:51.460 --> 00:30:52.560
I think that the,
1455
00:30:52.660 --> 00:30:54.910
the politics trajectory has definitely been
1456
00:30:55.260 --> 00:30:57.290
increased significantly by the sports volume,
1457
00:30:57.340 --> 00:30:57.530
you know,
1458
00:30:57.650 --> 00:30:58.460
kind of like the,
1459
00:30:58.550 --> 00:31:00.040
the interest trickling into them,
1460
00:31:00.470 --> 00:31:01.810
but it's not.
1461
00:31:03.410 --> 00:31:03.950
It,
1462
00:31:04.330 --> 00:31:04.530
it,
1463
00:31:04.650 --> 00:31:06.800
it hasn't taken off in the same rocket ship.
1464
00:31:06.890 --> 00:31:07.230
So
1465
00:31:07.340 --> 00:31:08.550
we're seeing that interest,
1466
00:31:08.730 --> 00:31:09.000
um,
1467
00:31:09.270 --> 00:31:11.400
increase over time and definitely like the midterms are going
1468
00:31:11.400 --> 00:31:13.670
to have a huge effect and I think we're going to
1469
00:31:14.030 --> 00:31:15.310
just kind of have to
1470
00:31:15.890 --> 00:31:16.550
see
1471
00:31:16.890 --> 00:31:20.070
how much of the sports interest ends up moving into,
1472
00:31:20.370 --> 00:31:20.480
ah,
1473
00:31:20.570 --> 00:31:21.920
midterms as the date gets closer.
1474
00:31:22.010 --> 00:31:22.370
As you know,
1475
00:31:22.410 --> 00:31:24.360
people really like these short term markets,
1476
00:31:24.410 --> 00:31:26.210
they like to turn over their money quickly,
1477
00:31:26.610 --> 00:31:27.190
so.
1478
00:31:27.870 --> 00:31:28.850
I think that
1479
00:31:29.070 --> 00:31:30.040
as we get closer,
1480
00:31:30.150 --> 00:31:31.700
we might start to see these people who
1481
00:31:31.700 --> 00:31:34.020
are really interested in the short-term markets,
1482
00:31:34.550 --> 00:31:35.370
moving from,
1483
00:31:35.670 --> 00:31:36.060
you know,
1484
00:31:36.450 --> 00:31:38.190
just being into sports into
1485
00:31:38.390 --> 00:31:40.590
now considering more of the politics markets.
1486
00:31:40.750 --> 00:31:40.820
Yeah,
1487
00:31:40.910 --> 00:31:41.840
that's one of the arguments I,
1488
00:31:41.870 --> 00:31:42.010
I,
1489
00:31:42.030 --> 00:31:43.540
I have with people sometimes when they talk about like,
1490
00:31:43.630 --> 00:31:44.000
oh well,
1491
00:31:44.070 --> 00:31:44.260
you know,
1492
00:31:44.350 --> 00:31:45.100
70% of the,
1493
00:31:45.190 --> 00:31:45.380
you know,
1494
00:31:45.470 --> 00:31:46.380
the volume is sports.
1495
00:31:46.470 --> 00:31:46.740
Well,
1496
00:31:47.150 --> 00:31:49.040
part of the reason For that is there's so many events,
1497
00:31:49.170 --> 00:31:49.320
right?
1498
00:31:49.370 --> 00:31:53.030
Like these things are happening constantly and inside of every one of those events,
1499
00:31:53.050 --> 00:31:53.480
there's another,
1500
00:31:53.570 --> 00:31:53.720
you know,
1501
00:31:53.880 --> 00:31:54.720
several layers of,
1502
00:31:54.850 --> 00:31:55.000
you know,
1503
00:31:55.130 --> 00:31:56.870
player props and all these other different things
1504
00:31:57.050 --> 00:31:57.780
that you can look at.
1505
00:31:57.930 --> 00:31:58.040
Well,
1506
00:31:58.110 --> 00:31:58.340
of course,
1507
00:31:58.370 --> 00:31:59.240
people are on their train.
1508
00:31:59.290 --> 00:31:59.400
There's,
1509
00:31:59.490 --> 00:32:01.500
there's only one election every couple of years,
1510
00:32:01.730 --> 00:32:01.920
uh,
1511
00:32:02.250 --> 00:32:03.070
for the most part.
1512
00:32:03.310 --> 00:32:03.400
Um,
1513
00:32:03.530 --> 00:32:05.110
so that I think that is a difference.
1514
00:32:05.330 --> 00:32:07.320
We are still seeing that people are,
1515
00:32:07.370 --> 00:32:07.840
I think,
1516
00:32:08.170 --> 00:32:08.280
you know,
1517
00:32:08.490 --> 00:32:08.800
it's funny,
1518
00:32:08.850 --> 00:32:10.320
I talk to people all the time about the,
1519
00:32:10.570 --> 00:32:10.680
the,
1520
00:32:10.810 --> 00:32:12.350
the main market they always bring up to me
1521
00:32:12.530 --> 00:32:14.420
is who's gonna win in 2028.
1522
00:32:14.910 --> 00:32:15.290
And
1523
00:32:15.390 --> 00:32:15.500
you know,
1524
00:32:15.590 --> 00:32:17.080
like that is a really fun,
1525
00:32:17.460 --> 00:32:18.200
interesting market.
1526
00:32:18.510 --> 00:32:21.650
But when you stop and think about how long you have to lock your money up,
1527
00:32:21.930 --> 00:32:22.100
uh,
1528
00:32:22.590 --> 00:32:23.810
to trade a market like that,
1529
00:32:23.910 --> 00:32:24.220
it really,
1530
00:32:24.270 --> 00:32:25.520
you really wonder whether
1531
00:32:25.980 --> 00:32:26.220
it's,
1532
00:32:26.270 --> 00:32:27.180
it's the right target.
1533
00:32:27.270 --> 00:32:27.420
I mean,
1534
00:32:27.590 --> 00:32:27.620
am I,
1535
00:32:27.710 --> 00:32:28.460
am I thinking about that right,
1536
00:32:28.510 --> 00:32:28.820
Tanner?
1537
00:32:30.120 --> 00:32:30.270
Yeah,
1538
00:32:30.400 --> 00:32:30.670
I would,
1539
00:32:30.720 --> 00:32:31.690
I would say you are,
1540
00:32:31.720 --> 00:32:32.170
even,
1541
00:32:32.190 --> 00:32:32.860
um,
1542
00:32:33.440 --> 00:32:34.100
I,
1543
00:32:34.160 --> 00:32:35.030
I think there,
1544
00:32:35.120 --> 00:32:37.040
if you're looking for a quick
1545
00:32:37.440 --> 00:32:37.870
turnaround,
1546
00:32:37.960 --> 00:32:39.760
there were some good trades at least I was
1547
00:32:39.760 --> 00:32:42.110
seeing earlier in some of these primary markets,
1548
00:32:42.320 --> 00:32:43.380
particularly with,
1549
00:32:43.760 --> 00:32:43.950
you know,
1550
00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:46.190
a few Democrats I think were priced a little bit lower,
1551
00:32:46.320 --> 00:32:47.540
but you're still counting on.
1552
00:32:48.090 --> 00:32:48.280
You know,
1553
00:32:48.410 --> 00:32:51.720
not just being right that their true odds are
1554
00:32:51.720 --> 00:32:54.230
higher than you believe the market is pricing them,
1555
00:32:54.450 --> 00:32:57.110
but also that the market will realize that it's incorrect in a,
1556
00:32:57.130 --> 00:32:58.970
in a reasonable enough time for you to exit
1557
00:32:59.130 --> 00:33:01.470
that position with any sort of profit unless you wanted to
1558
00:33:01.760 --> 00:33:03.390
hold to a resolution which You know,
1559
00:33:03.720 --> 00:33:04.670
creates a lot of extra risk,
1560
00:33:04.840 --> 00:33:05.820
especially if you believe
1561
00:33:06.160 --> 00:33:09.140
a 2 cent candidate is more of a 4 cent candidate for,
1562
00:33:09.320 --> 00:33:09.510
you know,
1563
00:33:09.640 --> 00:33:11.000
winning the overall election.
1564
00:33:11.130 --> 00:33:11.270
Yeah,
1565
00:33:11.360 --> 00:33:13.430
the primary schedule is great for this stuff because you can,
1566
00:33:13.520 --> 00:33:14.070
you can go in,
1567
00:33:14.120 --> 00:33:15.340
you have a weekly event,
1568
00:33:15.480 --> 00:33:17.080
you can go in with all your stuff there,
1569
00:33:17.160 --> 00:33:17.950
you can roll it over.
1570
00:33:18.100 --> 00:33:19.710
The next week and build on it from there to there.
1571
00:33:19.730 --> 00:33:19.920
I mean,
1572
00:33:19.970 --> 00:33:20.910
it's a really fun,
1573
00:33:21.090 --> 00:33:21.300
uh,
1574
00:33:21.490 --> 00:33:22.360
time of year and we had a great,
1575
00:33:22.530 --> 00:33:23.470
great time doing it.
1576
00:33:23.770 --> 00:33:23.880
Um,
1577
00:33:24.010 --> 00:33:24.580
I need to notice,
1578
00:33:24.650 --> 00:33:24.880
Jesse,
1579
00:33:24.970 --> 00:33:25.080
you know,
1580
00:33:25.170 --> 00:33:27.030
you look at the liquidity in some of these markets and,
1581
00:33:27.050 --> 00:33:27.240
you know,
1582
00:33:27.570 --> 00:33:27.760
talking,
1583
00:33:27.840 --> 00:33:27.960
you know,
1584
00:33:28.010 --> 00:33:28.470
we're
1585
00:33:28.770 --> 00:33:29.240
generally speaking,
1586
00:33:29.290 --> 00:33:29.960
my audience is,
1587
00:33:30.010 --> 00:33:30.270
is,
1588
00:33:30.450 --> 00:33:30.720
you know,
1589
00:33:31.050 --> 00:33:34.680
less like expert traders and more like people who are love politics,
1590
00:33:34.780 --> 00:33:34.890
right?
1591
00:33:34.960 --> 00:33:35.280
They're in it,
1592
00:33:35.330 --> 00:33:36.700
they're thinking about it all the time.
1593
00:33:37.140 --> 00:33:37.450
And like,
1594
00:33:37.500 --> 00:33:37.650
you know,
1595
00:33:37.740 --> 00:33:40.210
so liquidity is not something they think about on an everyday basis,
1596
00:33:40.300 --> 00:33:41.480
but sometimes they'll have a take,
1597
00:33:41.660 --> 00:33:43.260
they'll want to go into a market and there's just
1598
00:33:43.260 --> 00:33:45.770
no shares really there to buy in an interesting price.
1599
00:33:45.940 --> 00:33:46.090
How,
1600
00:33:46.220 --> 00:33:47.370
how do prediction markets,
1601
00:33:47.820 --> 00:33:48.050
you know,
1602
00:33:48.500 --> 00:33:49.700
work with you and and others to,
1603
00:33:49.780 --> 00:33:51.010
to make that more of a usable,
1604
00:33:51.180 --> 00:33:52.280
user-friendly experience?
1605
00:33:53.320 --> 00:33:53.550
Yeah,
1606
00:33:53.680 --> 00:33:53.980
for sure,
1607
00:33:54.000 --> 00:33:54.340
I mean,
1608
00:33:54.560 --> 00:33:56.420
there's definitely like
1609
00:33:57.040 --> 00:34:00.590
lots of the exchanges are offering ah liquidity programs and
1610
00:34:00.590 --> 00:34:02.710
they're doing that to try to beef up liquidity,
1611
00:34:02.880 --> 00:34:04.650
especially at points in time in which
1612
00:34:04.840 --> 00:34:07.270
traders are going to be interested in a market,
1613
00:34:07.560 --> 00:34:07.860
um,
1614
00:34:08.020 --> 00:34:12.420
so that will be around like a volatility event they know that some sort of,
1615
00:34:12.719 --> 00:34:12.909
ah,
1616
00:34:13.060 --> 00:34:14.139
news has just come out,
1617
00:34:14.239 --> 00:34:17.980
so they want to beef up the liquidity to make sure that makers are,
1618
00:34:18.120 --> 00:34:19.340
are directed there,
1619
00:34:19.639 --> 00:34:20.150
um.
1620
00:34:21.050 --> 00:34:21.469
And,
1621
00:34:21.489 --> 00:34:23.590
and then sometimes they're making these maker agreements
1622
00:34:23.610 --> 00:34:25.630
with individual market makers in which they're,
1623
00:34:25.650 --> 00:34:26.889
they're signing something that's saying,
1624
00:34:26.969 --> 00:34:27.159
OK,
1625
00:34:27.210 --> 00:34:27.540
I'm,
1626
00:34:27.610 --> 00:34:29.030
I'm committing to put up
1627
00:34:29.280 --> 00:34:29.830
quotes,
1628
00:34:29.850 --> 00:34:30.429
um,
1629
00:34:30.530 --> 00:34:33.280
with like this spread and this many,
1630
00:34:33.560 --> 00:34:34.070
um,
1631
00:34:34.090 --> 00:34:34.239
you know,
1632
00:34:34.290 --> 00:34:36.489
quantities so that you're sure that.
1633
00:34:36.929 --> 00:34:37.889
When a trader comes along,
1634
00:34:37.969 --> 00:34:40.000
there's not going to be some huge amount of slippage,
1635
00:34:40.489 --> 00:34:41.989
and I think that another thing that's really
1636
00:34:42.010 --> 00:34:43.610
interesting in the political markets coming up,
1637
00:34:43.909 --> 00:34:45.060
especially around the midterms,
1638
00:34:45.120 --> 00:34:47.520
is some of these platforms are thinking about doing
1639
00:34:47.520 --> 00:34:49.989
combos kind of similar to parlays in sports,
1640
00:34:50.170 --> 00:34:51.350
but around politics,
1641
00:34:51.610 --> 00:34:54.080
and that's something that's going to be really interesting
1642
00:34:54.080 --> 00:34:56.989
to see what the liquidity environment is like because
1643
00:34:57.830 --> 00:34:58.860
Quoting these,
1644
00:34:59.020 --> 00:34:59.940
these events,
1645
00:34:59.990 --> 00:35:00.420
you know,
1646
00:35:00.790 --> 00:35:02.410
they're definitely not independent.
1647
00:35:02.550 --> 00:35:05.410
A lot of the sports combos are easy to price because
1648
00:35:05.950 --> 00:35:06.720
they're different teams,
1649
00:35:06.760 --> 00:35:08.140
it's independent events,
1650
00:35:08.390 --> 00:35:08.810
um,
1651
00:35:09.070 --> 00:35:09.300
you know,
1652
00:35:09.390 --> 00:35:09.970
you just
1653
00:35:10.630 --> 00:35:10.820
say,
1654
00:35:10.870 --> 00:35:13.960
you just consider them to be independent and the math is very simple,
1655
00:35:14.230 --> 00:35:15.810
but with politics markets,
1656
00:35:16.190 --> 00:35:16.890
these things are
1657
00:35:17.030 --> 00:35:17.840
correlated,
1658
00:35:18.110 --> 00:35:19.870
and especially when you get to like,
1659
00:35:20.580 --> 00:35:22.050
345,
1660
00:35:22.900 --> 00:35:25.480
events all in one combo,
1661
00:35:26.060 --> 00:35:26.850
there can be some,
1662
00:35:26.980 --> 00:35:27.890
some hidden
1663
00:35:28.150 --> 00:35:30.880
probabilities and covariances between different,
1664
00:35:31.100 --> 00:35:31.530
um,
1665
00:35:31.740 --> 00:35:32.880
markets that
1666
00:35:33.020 --> 00:35:34.370
it's going to be hard for makers to consider.
1667
00:35:34.460 --> 00:35:37.600
So I think that's going to be a really interesting opportunity for,
1668
00:35:37.940 --> 00:35:38.170
ah,
1669
00:35:38.380 --> 00:35:38.740
the,
1670
00:35:38.950 --> 00:35:39.440
the,
1671
00:35:40.020 --> 00:35:40.170
you know,
1672
00:35:40.300 --> 00:35:42.570
takers out there who are interested in politics to,
1673
00:35:42.700 --> 00:35:45.470
to try to think through these scenarios and
1674
00:35:46.050 --> 00:35:46.280
You know,
1675
00:35:46.730 --> 00:35:48.200
see what they can get over on makers.
1676
00:35:48.250 --> 00:35:51.320
I'm not yet sure if I want to be quoting these things for that reason,
1677
00:35:51.410 --> 00:35:51.560
you know,
1678
00:35:51.610 --> 00:35:52.980
I think it's gonna be really difficult,
1679
00:35:53.250 --> 00:35:53.320
uh,
1680
00:35:53.410 --> 00:35:54.920
but I think it's also going to be really fun.
1681
00:35:55.090 --> 00:35:55.180
Yeah,
1682
00:35:55.290 --> 00:35:55.330
I,
1683
00:35:55.450 --> 00:35:56.920
I always say that that does interest me,
1684
00:35:57.010 --> 00:35:57.120
like,
1685
00:35:57.290 --> 00:35:57.790
especially because,
1686
00:35:57.890 --> 00:35:58.010
you know,
1687
00:35:58.050 --> 00:35:58.320
you get,
1688
00:35:58.370 --> 00:35:59.040
you find these things.
1689
00:35:59.090 --> 00:36:00.220
I feel like you can find these,
1690
00:36:00.610 --> 00:36:02.120
these things that are priced at like 85,
1691
00:36:02.210 --> 00:36:03.920
90% that I feel really confident in.
1692
00:36:04.130 --> 00:36:04.400
And that,
1693
00:36:04.530 --> 00:36:04.640
look,
1694
00:36:04.690 --> 00:36:04.930
I'll,
1695
00:36:05.010 --> 00:36:06.120
I'll take that 1520,
1696
00:36:06.210 --> 00:36:06.320
you know,
1697
00:36:06.410 --> 00:36:06.640
10,
1698
00:36:06.690 --> 00:36:07.760
15% all day.
1699
00:36:08.200 --> 00:36:10.140
But if I could combine a couple of those,
1700
00:36:10.440 --> 00:36:10.980
and
1701
00:36:11.120 --> 00:36:11.510
I don't know,
1702
00:36:11.560 --> 00:36:11.870
it's,
1703
00:36:11.960 --> 00:36:12.950
it would be pretty interesting.
1704
00:36:13.040 --> 00:36:13.840
It would be pretty interesting.
1705
00:36:13.920 --> 00:36:14.870
I'll probably screw it up.
1706
00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:15.750
There'll be one
1707
00:36:15.920 --> 00:36:17.670
there will be one leg that screws me up
1708
00:36:17.670 --> 00:36:19.550
and I will hate that politician more than anybody.
1709
00:36:19.810 --> 00:36:19.870
Uh,
1710
00:36:19.890 --> 00:36:20.360
in the world,
1711
00:36:20.560 --> 00:36:21.190
but that's just me,
1712
00:36:21.240 --> 00:36:21.810
I suppose.
1713
00:36:22.000 --> 00:36:22.110
Um,
1714
00:36:22.280 --> 00:36:23.440
20 predict 2026.
1715
00:36:23.520 --> 00:36:24.350
I wanna get to this because,
1716
00:36:24.480 --> 00:36:24.630
uh,
1717
00:36:24.760 --> 00:36:24.910
you know,
1718
00:36:25.040 --> 00:36:26.190
this is gonna be a great event.
1719
00:36:26.320 --> 00:36:26.430
Uh,
1720
00:36:26.570 --> 00:36:27.560
there's huge names there.
1721
00:36:27.650 --> 00:36:27.790
It's,
1722
00:36:27.880 --> 00:36:28.480
it's in New York.
1723
00:36:28.620 --> 00:36:28.630
Uh,
1724
00:36:29.040 --> 00:36:29.870
not only it's in New York,
1725
00:36:29.950 --> 00:36:30.590
it's in New York at,
1726
00:36:30.720 --> 00:36:30.870
you know,
1727
00:36:31.000 --> 00:36:31.360
Christmas time.
1728
00:36:31.440 --> 00:36:32.750
This is gonna be a really cool event.
1729
00:36:32.840 --> 00:36:32.990
You know,
1730
00:36:33.120 --> 00:36:33.380
lots of,
1731
00:36:33.440 --> 00:36:34.070
if you wanna go,
1732
00:36:34.160 --> 00:36:35.430
if you're interested in this stuff,
1733
00:36:35.770 --> 00:36:36.110
check it out.
1734
00:36:36.160 --> 00:36:38.630
It's predict 2026.org.
1735
00:36:38.680 --> 00:36:39.270
You can visit.
1736
00:36:39.610 --> 00:36:39.850
Uh,
1737
00:36:40.160 --> 00:36:40.670
there and check,
1738
00:36:40.760 --> 00:36:41.670
get out all the details.
1739
00:36:41.800 --> 00:36:43.830
Jesse Rosen and Tanner Lux's putting this whole thing together.
1740
00:36:43.920 --> 00:36:44.920
It's gonna be a lot of fun.
1741
00:36:44.960 --> 00:36:45.250
And
1742
00:36:45.440 --> 00:36:45.580
look,
1743
00:36:45.640 --> 00:36:46.390
this world is growing,
1744
00:36:46.440 --> 00:36:49.540
as everybody I know who watches the show on a day to day basis knows,
1745
00:36:49.840 --> 00:36:50.990
and it's important that we,
1746
00:36:51.110 --> 00:36:51.190
we,
1747
00:36:51.280 --> 00:36:53.320
we look at this and understand where it's going and,
1748
00:36:53.340 --> 00:36:54.590
and how we can be a part of it.
1749
00:36:54.800 --> 00:36:56.660
Predict 2026.org is the place to go.
1750
00:36:56.840 --> 00:36:57.110
Tanner,
1751
00:36:57.240 --> 00:36:57.510
Jesse,
1752
00:36:57.560 --> 00:36:58.150
thanks so much for coming on.
1753
00:36:58.240 --> 00:36:58.860
I appreciate it.
1754
00:36:59.520 --> 00:36:59.670
Yeah,
1755
00:36:59.840 --> 00:37:00.670
thank you for having us.
1756
00:37:00.830 --> 00:37:01.190
Thanks.
1757
00:37:16.490 --> 00:37:16.600
Alright,
1758
00:37:16.650 --> 00:37:19.320
it's time for our candidate countdown candidate of the day.
1759
00:37:19.410 --> 00:37:21.350
We do a different candidate feature a different race,
1760
00:37:21.450 --> 00:37:21.520
uh,
1761
00:37:21.610 --> 00:37:21.920
that we're,
1762
00:37:22.010 --> 00:37:24.050
that I have a position on every single day,
1763
00:37:24.170 --> 00:37:25.720
and today's candidate of the day,
1764
00:37:25.770 --> 00:37:28.640
we've got 42 days left until the midterm election,
1765
00:37:28.810 --> 00:37:30.110
and we go to Florida
1766
00:37:30.250 --> 00:37:31.550
and we say hello
1767
00:37:31.970 --> 00:37:32.880
to Ashley Moody.
1768
00:37:32.970 --> 00:37:33.040
Yes,
1769
00:37:33.180 --> 00:37:33.910
Ashley Moody.
1770
00:37:34.130 --> 00:37:34.990
Running for Senate
1771
00:37:35.210 --> 00:37:35.670
in,
1772
00:37:35.890 --> 00:37:36.080
uh,
1773
00:37:36.260 --> 00:37:36.800
Florida,
1774
00:37:37.010 --> 00:37:40.350
she was appointed by DeSantis after uh Rubio left
1775
00:37:40.370 --> 00:37:42.280
to go to serve in the Trump administration.
1776
00:37:42.680 --> 00:37:44.060
Been the senator for a while there,
1777
00:37:44.280 --> 00:37:44.590
um,
1778
00:37:44.760 --> 00:37:44.980
and,
1779
00:37:45.080 --> 00:37:45.440
uh,
1780
00:37:45.680 --> 00:37:47.320
she is running in Florida and she,
1781
00:37:47.480 --> 00:37:48.480
she wound up getting a,
1782
00:37:48.560 --> 00:37:49.660
I think she was gonna win anyway,
1783
00:37:49.840 --> 00:37:52.550
but she also got a really bad candidate to go against her,
1784
00:37:52.640 --> 00:37:52.940
which is,
1785
00:37:53.080 --> 00:37:54.390
I always wanna say Cynthia Nixon,
1786
00:37:54.440 --> 00:37:54.980
which it's not,
1787
00:37:55.000 --> 00:37:55.300
it's,
1788
00:37:55.440 --> 00:37:55.910
uh,
1789
00:37:56.130 --> 00:37:56.550
something else,
1790
00:37:56.640 --> 00:37:56.990
Nixon,
1791
00:37:57.080 --> 00:37:57.590
what's her name?
1792
00:38:00.220 --> 00:38:01.030
Angie Nixon,
1793
00:38:01.300 --> 00:38:01.810
thank you very much.
1794
00:38:01.900 --> 00:38:02.410
Angie Nixon.
1795
00:38:02.460 --> 00:38:03.170
I was gonna say Richard,
1796
00:38:03.220 --> 00:38:04.550
but I was pretty sure it wasn't Richard.
1797
00:38:04.820 --> 00:38:04.890
Uh,
1798
00:38:05.020 --> 00:38:06.140
Angie Nixon is running there.
1799
00:38:06.180 --> 00:38:06.300
She,
1800
00:38:06.460 --> 00:38:07.730
she's like the socialist candidate,
1801
00:38:07.820 --> 00:38:08.310
kind of a,
1802
00:38:08.540 --> 00:38:09.850
a wild-eyed socialist,
1803
00:38:09.990 --> 00:38:10.000
uh,
1804
00:38:10.140 --> 00:38:10.810
running in Florida,
1805
00:38:10.860 --> 00:38:12.520
which has become a very red state.
1806
00:38:13.140 --> 00:38:13.290
You know,
1807
00:38:13.380 --> 00:38:13.800
is this a,
1808
00:38:13.820 --> 00:38:14.890
a complete sure thing?
1809
00:38:14.910 --> 00:38:15.100
I mean,
1810
00:38:15.200 --> 00:38:15.490
no,
1811
00:38:15.590 --> 00:38:15.600
uh,
1812
00:38:15.700 --> 00:38:16.620
but I really like it.
1813
00:38:16.660 --> 00:38:17.590
I really like this race,
1814
00:38:17.650 --> 00:38:19.690
and one of the reasons I like it is every once in
1815
00:38:19.690 --> 00:38:22.040
a while there's been a couple polls that have showed it close.
1816
00:38:22.600 --> 00:38:22.870
Again,
1817
00:38:22.960 --> 00:38:23.870
you know the thesis statement.
1818
00:38:23.920 --> 00:38:25.620
We talked about it in the first segment today.
1819
00:38:25.680 --> 00:38:25.890
Uh,
1820
00:38:26.240 --> 00:38:27.070
people tend to come home.
1821
00:38:27.120 --> 00:38:27.580
This is a,
1822
00:38:27.680 --> 00:38:27.830
you know,
1823
00:38:27.880 --> 00:38:29.190
a Republican state at this point.
1824
00:38:29.240 --> 00:38:30.160
It's a red state.
1825
00:38:30.380 --> 00:38:33.950
I think by maybe not 2025 points like DeSantis has won it by,
1826
00:38:34.000 --> 00:38:34.500
but I think
1827
00:38:34.640 --> 00:38:36.260
high single digits is reasonable.
1828
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:36.550
Uh,
1829
00:38:36.640 --> 00:38:40.170
Ashley Moody sounds alarmed with a second poll shows dead heat with Angie Nixon.
1830
00:38:40.240 --> 00:38:41.220
This is the headline
1831
00:38:41.480 --> 00:38:42.390
from Newsweek.
1832
00:38:42.570 --> 00:38:42.710
Now,
1833
00:38:43.040 --> 00:38:44.140
this is one of those things where like,
1834
00:38:44.160 --> 00:38:44.720
normally,
1835
00:38:44.960 --> 00:38:45.550
if you're a candidate,
1836
00:38:45.600 --> 00:38:45.950
you wanna say,
1837
00:38:46.000 --> 00:38:46.640
I'm winning.
1838
00:38:46.760 --> 00:38:47.200
I'm winning,
1839
00:38:47.280 --> 00:38:47.670
I'm winning.
1840
00:38:47.690 --> 00:38:48.430
I'm doing great.
1841
00:38:48.950 --> 00:38:49.590
Ashley Moody,
1842
00:38:49.870 --> 00:38:50.460
oddly,
1843
00:38:50.590 --> 00:38:50.720
and,
1844
00:38:50.740 --> 00:38:53.690
and this is a new thing that has happened over the past few years,
1845
00:38:53.950 --> 00:38:54.890
and is also
1846
00:38:55.030 --> 00:38:57.980
common among not just Moody's campaign or Republican campaigns,
1847
00:38:58.030 --> 00:38:58.650
but everybody,
1848
00:38:59.150 --> 00:39:01.780
is you actually are incentivized to point
1849
00:39:01.780 --> 00:39:04.090
out the bad things about what's happening because
1850
00:39:04.950 --> 00:39:06.370
you want to fundraise off of them.
1851
00:39:06.590 --> 00:39:07.220
Holy crap,
1852
00:39:07.310 --> 00:39:08.140
we're tied.
1853
00:39:08.430 --> 00:39:08.540
Uh,
1854
00:39:08.630 --> 00:39:08.780
oh,
1855
00:39:08.870 --> 00:39:09.180
no,
1856
00:39:09.410 --> 00:39:09.940
it's 2 ties,
1857
00:39:10.070 --> 00:39:10.770
2 polls tied,
1858
00:39:10.790 --> 00:39:12.020
and there are 2 polls that are tied,
1859
00:39:12.070 --> 00:39:12.340
by the way,
1860
00:39:12.550 --> 00:39:13.850
Saint Pete polls,
1861
00:39:14.190 --> 00:39:14.340
uh,
1862
00:39:14.510 --> 00:39:15.820
and Change Research.
1863
00:39:16.270 --> 00:39:17.060
Have it as even,
1864
00:39:17.110 --> 00:39:20.130
but you see the other polls around it are pretty consistently
1865
00:39:20.350 --> 00:39:21.580
in the favor of Moody.
1866
00:39:21.670 --> 00:39:23.660
The most recent one from Insider Advantage,
1867
00:39:23.720 --> 00:39:25.670
which is a new poll from a few days ago,
1868
00:39:25.870 --> 00:39:27.560
has Moody up by 8 points.
1869
00:39:27.750 --> 00:39:29.090
Qantas had her up by 7.
1870
00:39:29.710 --> 00:39:31.620
University of North Florida had her up.
1871
00:39:31.720 --> 00:39:32.610
The various
1872
00:39:32.950 --> 00:39:35.220
measures in July by 8 and 10 points.
1873
00:39:35.470 --> 00:39:36.100
These two polls,
1874
00:39:36.180 --> 00:39:36.300
look,
1875
00:39:36.350 --> 00:39:36.660
I would be,
1876
00:39:36.750 --> 00:39:38.380
of course you'd be worried about a poll that's close,
1877
00:39:38.470 --> 00:39:38.700
but I'm,
1878
00:39:38.750 --> 00:39:39.650
I'm pretty confident
1879
00:39:39.870 --> 00:39:40.930
in Ashley Moody.
1880
00:39:41.150 --> 00:39:42.790
It is one of my biggest positions.
1881
00:39:42.870 --> 00:39:44.260
This is what the market looks like right now,
1882
00:39:44.310 --> 00:39:45.880
and the reason why it's not 95%,
1883
00:39:45.950 --> 00:39:46.390
98%,
1884
00:39:46.430 --> 00:39:47.060
99%.
1885
00:39:47.470 --> 00:39:47.580
Uh,
1886
00:39:47.710 --> 00:39:49.970
is because of these couple of polls,
1887
00:39:50.270 --> 00:39:50.550
um,
1888
00:39:50.870 --> 00:39:51.360
uh,
1889
00:39:51.750 --> 00:39:51.970
you know,
1890
00:39:52.590 --> 00:39:53.260
she's competitive.
1891
00:39:53.310 --> 00:39:53.460
I mean,
1892
00:39:53.550 --> 00:39:55.930
Nixon's more competitive than she would normally be.
1893
00:39:56.070 --> 00:39:56.820
In another year,
1894
00:39:56.910 --> 00:39:58.060
she ran in 2024,
1895
00:39:58.190 --> 00:39:59.580
she'd get absolutely destroyed,
1896
00:39:59.630 --> 00:40:00.190
but it's 20,
1897
00:40:00.430 --> 00:40:01.540
it's 2018 all over again,
1898
00:40:01.560 --> 00:40:02.200
at least,
1899
00:40:02.390 --> 00:40:03.830
it seems like in some of these cases.
1900
00:40:03.910 --> 00:40:04.290
So
1901
00:40:04.580 --> 00:40:05.930
she is more competitive.
1902
00:40:06.190 --> 00:40:06.400
Uh,
1903
00:40:06.790 --> 00:40:09.860
Polly market here has Ashley Moody at 92%.
1904
00:40:10.270 --> 00:40:11.100
Angie Nixon.
1905
00:40:11.880 --> 00:40:12.860
At 9%.
1906
00:40:12.920 --> 00:40:13.060
I,
1907
00:40:13.150 --> 00:40:15.370
I wanna say Calci is a little bit more
1908
00:40:15.750 --> 00:40:16.370
um
1909
00:40:16.590 --> 00:40:18.260
uh favorable for Nixon.
1910
00:40:18.310 --> 00:40:21.170
I wanna say it's 90 to 10% or something in that vicinity.
1911
00:40:21.350 --> 00:40:21.550
Again,
1912
00:40:21.590 --> 00:40:22.490
this is a race that
1913
00:40:22.870 --> 00:40:24.930
only utter catastrophe
1914
00:40:25.110 --> 00:40:28.490
really could could endanger Ashley Moody.
1915
00:40:29.400 --> 00:40:30.050
Not impossible,
1916
00:40:30.140 --> 00:40:31.450
but I really like the candidate.
1917
00:40:31.500 --> 00:40:32.760
I really like the play here.
1918
00:40:33.020 --> 00:40:34.890
So that is my candidate of the day,
1919
00:40:35.100 --> 00:40:36.690
kind of playing off the GOP optimism.
1920
00:40:36.780 --> 00:40:36.930
Let's,
1921
00:40:36.980 --> 00:40:40.380
let's look at a race that maybe the Republicans are a little excited about.
1922
00:40:40.660 --> 00:40:40.760
Uh,
1923
00:40:40.900 --> 00:40:43.050
Ashley Moody getting in there and winning an election
1924
00:40:43.050 --> 00:40:44.850
will probably have her there for as long as,
1925
00:40:44.980 --> 00:40:45.130
you know,
1926
00:40:45.390 --> 00:40:46.910
for at least a good period of time,
1927
00:40:47.220 --> 00:40:47.330
uh,
1928
00:40:47.420 --> 00:40:50.130
if she is able to win in this particular race.
1929
00:40:50.210 --> 00:40:51.130
It's not always easy.
1930
00:40:51.380 --> 00:40:51.490
Uh,
1931
00:40:51.860 --> 00:40:53.670
an incumbency has its advantages.
1932
00:40:53.860 --> 00:40:56.520
That advantage is oftentimes minimized
1933
00:40:56.660 --> 00:40:57.530
if you were appointed.
1934
00:40:58.310 --> 00:40:58.490
You know,
1935
00:40:58.510 --> 00:40:58.770
I don't know,
1936
00:40:58.820 --> 00:40:58.850
I,
1937
00:40:59.060 --> 00:40:59.290
I guess,
1938
00:40:59.380 --> 00:40:59.550
you know,
1939
00:40:59.940 --> 00:41:00.850
people don't have that connection,
1940
00:41:00.960 --> 00:41:01.100
right?
1941
00:41:01.180 --> 00:41:02.420
They didn't vote for you.
1942
00:41:02.440 --> 00:41:03.410
You appointed by DeSantis,
1943
00:41:03.520 --> 00:41:04.050
so there,
1944
00:41:04.180 --> 00:41:04.540
that is,
1945
00:41:04.620 --> 00:41:04.650
uh,
1946
00:41:04.740 --> 00:41:04.890
you know,
1947
00:41:05.020 --> 00:41:06.850
I wouldn't treat her as a normal incumbent where
1948
00:41:06.850 --> 00:41:08.550
I would even have her as a higher favorite.
1949
00:41:08.920 --> 00:41:10.760
But I'm totally comfortable buying her,
1950
00:41:10.940 --> 00:41:11.280
uh,
1951
00:41:11.420 --> 00:41:11.550
uh,
1952
00:41:11.690 --> 00:41:13.430
buying shares of her political,
1953
00:41:13.530 --> 00:41:14.230
I always say weird,
1954
00:41:14.280 --> 00:41:14.520
I,
1955
00:41:14.640 --> 00:41:16.260
I feel really comfortable buying her.
1956
00:41:16.440 --> 00:41:17.530
It just feels weird.
1957
00:41:17.640 --> 00:41:19.310
It feels a little sexual slavery,
1958
00:41:19.330 --> 00:41:19.820
and I don't,
1959
00:41:20.040 --> 00:41:21.220
it's not what I'm looking for here.
1960
00:41:21.400 --> 00:41:23.200
I'm looking to buy shares of her contract
1961
00:41:23.360 --> 00:41:24.590
in a political election.
1962
00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:25.470
90 cents.
1963
00:41:25.520 --> 00:41:25.910
I like,
1964
00:41:26.040 --> 00:41:26.830
I like that price.
1965
00:41:26.960 --> 00:41:27.320
So
1966
00:41:27.480 --> 00:41:27.910
that's where we are.
1967
00:41:27.960 --> 00:41:28.510
Ashley Moody,
1968
00:41:28.600 --> 00:41:28.850
our,
1969
00:41:28.960 --> 00:41:29.110
uh,
1970
00:41:29.240 --> 00:41:31.110
candidate countdown candidate of the day.
1971
00:41:43.650 --> 00:41:45.480
Another episode of Stranger Trades where we
1972
00:41:45.480 --> 00:41:48.150
highlight the bizarre things that happen on
1973
00:41:48.330 --> 00:41:49.030
prediction markets,
1974
00:41:49.050 --> 00:41:50.030
and sometimes they do.
1975
00:41:50.170 --> 00:41:51.960
And that's kind of what makes them fun sometimes,
1976
00:41:52.250 --> 00:41:53.750
unless of course you're on the wrong side
1977
00:41:53.970 --> 00:41:54.840
of one of those trades.
1978
00:41:54.930 --> 00:41:56.180
The stranger trades yesterday
1979
00:41:56.370 --> 00:41:59.040
has to do with uh Donald Trump's battles with the media.
1980
00:41:59.170 --> 00:42:02.900
He has been uh taking people uh different media organizations and saying,
1981
00:42:02.970 --> 00:42:03.080
yeah,
1982
00:42:03.170 --> 00:42:03.240
well,
1983
00:42:03.290 --> 00:42:04.590
you're banned from the White House.
1984
00:42:05.010 --> 00:42:05.200
uh,
1985
00:42:05.330 --> 00:42:07.550
and there has been some
1986
00:42:08.010 --> 00:42:09.840
weirdness associated with that.
1987
00:42:10.220 --> 00:42:10.330
Uh,
1988
00:42:10.460 --> 00:42:12.330
one of the things is they're not using,
1989
00:42:12.540 --> 00:42:14.040
they're not doing pool audio anymore.
1990
00:42:14.420 --> 00:42:15.460
Usually what happens is.
1991
00:42:15.690 --> 00:42:16.980
Instead of every single
1992
00:42:17.200 --> 00:42:19.220
news organization having to bring their own microphone,
1993
00:42:19.520 --> 00:42:19.670
uh,
1994
00:42:19.800 --> 00:42:21.180
to every single press conference,
1995
00:42:21.440 --> 00:42:23.010
they usually have like responsibilities.
1996
00:42:23.120 --> 00:42:25.350
So there's a pool and someone someone does it.
1997
00:42:25.770 --> 00:42:25.880
Uh,
1998
00:42:26.010 --> 00:42:27.670
and kind of provides it to everybody.
1999
00:42:28.010 --> 00:42:28.320
Well,
2000
00:42:28.650 --> 00:42:30.840
they're kind of protesting this because they don't like what
2001
00:42:30.840 --> 00:42:32.600
he's done with kicking people out of the White House.
2002
00:42:32.650 --> 00:42:32.760
Uh,
2003
00:42:32.890 --> 00:42:35.690
and what happened was he did an event and there was no audio.
2004
00:42:36.010 --> 00:42:38.120
Trump inaudible during TV blackout,
2005
00:42:38.490 --> 00:42:39.920
what the press pool does,
2006
00:42:39.970 --> 00:42:41.350
and the Axios explains
2007
00:42:41.660 --> 00:42:42.440
what we're talking about.
2008
00:42:42.490 --> 00:42:43.820
This is what it looked like yesterday,
2009
00:42:43.890 --> 00:42:45.290
and it's got a tie to prediction markets,
2010
00:42:45.330 --> 00:42:45.810
which is very,
2011
00:42:45.890 --> 00:42:46.840
very interesting.
2012
00:42:47.130 --> 00:42:47.920
Here's the event.
2013
00:42:48.130 --> 00:42:48.200
Uh,
2014
00:42:48.330 --> 00:42:48.910
he is doing,
2015
00:42:49.090 --> 00:42:49.900
this is for a,
2016
00:42:50.020 --> 00:42:50.920
I think a helipad,
2017
00:42:51.070 --> 00:42:51.200
right?
2018
00:42:51.290 --> 00:42:51.930
Wasn't it
2019
00:42:52.240 --> 00:42:52.640
something like that?
2020
00:42:52.660 --> 00:42:53.370
I don't even know.
2021
00:42:53.530 --> 00:42:53.920
He's ribbon,
2022
00:42:54.010 --> 00:42:54.880
it was a ribbon cutting.
2023
00:42:55.430 --> 00:42:56.570
And he's just,
2024
00:42:56.780 --> 00:42:58.490
you can see Trump's mouth moving.
2025
00:42:58.710 --> 00:42:59.630
You can see him talking to everyone.
2026
00:42:59.710 --> 00:43:01.060
It looks like a totally normal event,
2027
00:43:01.230 --> 00:43:02.490
except instead,
2028
00:43:03.550 --> 00:43:04.440
hearing what he's saying
2029
00:43:05.060 --> 00:43:07.990
because there's no microphone because the pool cameras aren't there.
2030
00:43:08.110 --> 00:43:08.830
So maybe,
2031
00:43:09.230 --> 00:43:09.260
uh,
2032
00:43:09.430 --> 00:43:09.620
Tim,
2033
00:43:09.670 --> 00:43:12.580
this is one example of it backfiring just a little bit,
2034
00:43:12.780 --> 00:43:13.020
um,
2035
00:43:13.310 --> 00:43:15.330
pick up on some of the things
2036
00:43:15.870 --> 00:43:17.020
Michael was saying.
2037
00:43:17.430 --> 00:43:18.180
So that's Newsmax,
2038
00:43:18.230 --> 00:43:18.420
by the way,
2039
00:43:18.510 --> 00:43:18.780
saying like,
2040
00:43:18.870 --> 00:43:18.900
yeah,
2041
00:43:18.990 --> 00:43:19.360
maybe this,
2042
00:43:19.390 --> 00:43:19.540
uh,
2043
00:43:20.390 --> 00:43:20.480
all right,
2044
00:43:20.510 --> 00:43:21.170
that's enough guys,
2045
00:43:21.310 --> 00:43:21.460
um,
2046
00:43:21.750 --> 00:43:22.150
where there's like,
2047
00:43:22.230 --> 00:43:22.260
uh,
2048
00:43:22.390 --> 00:43:23.570
maybe that's a little bit too much,
2049
00:43:23.670 --> 00:43:23.820
uh,
2050
00:43:23.990 --> 00:43:25.110
battling with the media anyway.
2051
00:43:25.590 --> 00:43:28.190
What's interesting about this is there was a mention market
2052
00:43:28.590 --> 00:43:29.820
set up for this event.
2053
00:43:29.950 --> 00:43:32.480
What will Trump say at this particular
2054
00:43:32.890 --> 00:43:33.470
event?
2055
00:43:33.910 --> 00:43:35.050
This is what it looks like on,
2056
00:43:35.150 --> 00:43:35.220
uh,
2057
00:43:35.320 --> 00:43:36.260
Calci right now.
2058
00:43:36.370 --> 00:43:36.480
Uh,
2059
00:43:37.230 --> 00:43:38.300
the graph looks a little bit weird.
2060
00:43:38.350 --> 00:43:38.990
You can ignore that,
2061
00:43:39.030 --> 00:43:39.810
but kind of go down.
2062
00:43:39.990 --> 00:43:40.720
What is he gonna say?
2063
00:43:40.750 --> 00:43:41.860
If you don't know what a mention market is,
2064
00:43:41.990 --> 00:43:42.690
they give you a big list,
2065
00:43:42.790 --> 00:43:42.910
right?
2066
00:43:42.950 --> 00:43:43.140
Oil,
2067
00:43:43.160 --> 00:43:43.420
gas,
2068
00:43:43.510 --> 00:43:44.020
helicopter,
2069
00:43:44.110 --> 00:43:44.280
right?
2070
00:43:44.430 --> 00:43:44.690
Uh,
2071
00:43:44.990 --> 00:43:45.450
Biden,
2072
00:43:45.670 --> 00:43:45.780
uh,
2073
00:43:45.950 --> 00:43:46.420
Melania,
2074
00:43:46.510 --> 00:43:48.450
all these different things that he might say.
2075
00:43:49.070 --> 00:43:49.180
Well,
2076
00:43:49.270 --> 00:43:49.540
of course,
2077
00:43:49.590 --> 00:43:49.970
the
2078
00:43:51.240 --> 00:43:52.510
The answer to all of them were no,
2079
00:43:52.600 --> 00:43:53.430
because he didn't say anything,
2080
00:43:53.480 --> 00:43:55.300
at least on at least on the microphone.
2081
00:43:55.480 --> 00:43:56.550
It's an interesting
2082
00:43:57.490 --> 00:44:01.060
conversation there because he obviously did say some of these things.
2083
00:44:01.160 --> 00:44:02.780
I don't know how they're gonna play this out.
2084
00:44:02.960 --> 00:44:04.290
The fact that you couldn't hear,
2085
00:44:04.520 --> 00:44:07.150
there's no confirmation of him saying any of those things.
2086
00:44:07.200 --> 00:44:08.650
Every single market
2087
00:44:08.790 --> 00:44:10.270
resolved to know.
2088
00:44:10.680 --> 00:44:10.870
So,
2089
00:44:11.060 --> 00:44:11.260
again,
2090
00:44:11.480 --> 00:44:12.390
if you had no shares,
2091
00:44:12.440 --> 00:44:12.870
you did very,
2092
00:44:12.960 --> 00:44:14.010
very well in that market.
2093
00:44:14.160 --> 00:44:15.340
If you had some yeses,
2094
00:44:15.560 --> 00:44:16.310
maybe not so well.
2095
00:44:16.390 --> 00:44:18.490
It's just another weird thing that happens on prediction markets.
2096
00:44:18.600 --> 00:44:20.710
What's fun about this area is it is a new frontier.
2097
00:44:20.840 --> 00:44:22.340
We don't know everything that's gonna happen.
2098
00:44:22.560 --> 00:44:22.630
Uh,
2099
00:44:22.800 --> 00:44:23.540
so sometimes
2100
00:44:23.840 --> 00:44:24.930
we all get surprised.
2101
00:44:25.120 --> 00:44:25.380
Uh,
2102
00:44:25.680 --> 00:44:26.790
you get surprised a little bit less.
2103
00:44:26.880 --> 00:44:27.600
We try to make this
2104
00:44:27.720 --> 00:44:30.700
unpredictable world a little bit more predictable here on this show.
2105
00:44:30.920 --> 00:44:33.310
You can go further at predictableshow.com.
2106
00:44:33.360 --> 00:44:34.790
If you have a premium subscription,
2107
00:44:34.830 --> 00:44:35.740
you get every one of my picks,
2108
00:44:35.760 --> 00:44:37.680
you get a live stream of the taping every single day,
2109
00:44:37.770 --> 00:44:39.260
so you get all these positions early.
2110
00:44:39.630 --> 00:44:39.780
Uh,
2111
00:44:39.950 --> 00:44:43.050
you also get a great community conversation of people talking
2112
00:44:43.310 --> 00:44:44.620
about prediction markets and,
2113
00:44:44.660 --> 00:44:44.670
uh,
2114
00:44:44.710 --> 00:44:45.790
and all the associated,
2115
00:44:45.950 --> 00:44:46.060
uh,
2116
00:44:46.270 --> 00:44:46.820
fun there.
2117
00:44:46.950 --> 00:44:47.190
There's,
2118
00:44:47.270 --> 00:44:47.340
uh,
2119
00:44:47.430 --> 00:44:48.580
also the prediction model.
2120
00:44:48.630 --> 00:44:49.380
We have the PMC,
2121
00:44:49.470 --> 00:44:49.810
the,
2122
00:44:50.150 --> 00:44:50.300
uh,
2123
00:44:50.510 --> 00:44:51.850
predict predictable,
2124
00:44:52.030 --> 00:44:52.140
uh,
2125
00:44:52.230 --> 00:44:52.790
medium,
2126
00:44:53.080 --> 00:44:53.730
predictable,
2127
00:44:54.190 --> 00:44:54.330
uh,
2128
00:44:54.430 --> 00:44:54.970
midterm
2129
00:44:55.070 --> 00:44:55.700
consensus,
2130
00:44:55.870 --> 00:44:55.980
uh,
2131
00:44:56.110 --> 00:44:56.630
which is up there.
2132
00:44:56.670 --> 00:44:57.220
The PMC,
2133
00:44:57.310 --> 00:44:57.370
uh,
2134
00:44:57.510 --> 00:44:59.460
shows you all the breakdowns of what the experts are saying
2135
00:44:59.460 --> 00:45:01.950
and every single state broken down for premium subscribers as well.
2136
00:45:01.990 --> 00:45:03.140
So there's tons of stuff,
2137
00:45:03.260 --> 00:45:03.340
uh,
2138
00:45:03.550 --> 00:45:03.800
for you,
2139
00:45:03.910 --> 00:45:04.230
for you to,
2140
00:45:04.310 --> 00:45:04.930
to play with
2141
00:45:05.060 --> 00:45:06.140
at predictableshow.com.
2142
00:45:06.350 --> 00:45:07.630
Go there and join us.
2143
00:45:07.790 --> 00:45:08.460
We'll see you later.