The Countdown Is ON: Two Weeks Until Crucial Midterm Elections

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We are 2 weeks away
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from the midterms.
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Oh my gosh,
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I've got the state of the race for you,
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for the Senate,
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for governor's races,
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some House as well.
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We'll get into all that today.
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We also have NBA basketball kicking back off tonight.
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I will,
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I wanna watch closely to see
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if we can potentially stop LeBron James
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from uh winning another championship,
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very important in my life.
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And I've got a new candidate countdown as well.
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We like to look at a different candidate every
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day that not only is an interesting race,
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but also one that might make you a little bit of money on prediction markets.
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All of that and more is coming up on today's Predictable with Stu.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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So much to get to.
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14 days until the midterm elections where
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we are hopefully going to be very profitable
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and hopefully get some good results for the country too,
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cause that's kind of important.
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I don't know if you knew that,
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uh,
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very,
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very important.
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By the way,
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early voting already happening
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in 35 states,
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so the election is well underway
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already.
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Maybe later in the week,
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uh,
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Adam,
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we should look at a little bit of that,
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uh,
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early voting data that is coming in.
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There's some interesting stuff going on.
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Look,
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you're gonna see early voting data online.
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You should know to be very,
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very hesitant to make vast conclusions based on it.
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It is
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always,
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it,
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the main thing early voting data does is mislead people,
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but we'll try to cut through some of the noise maybe a little bit,
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uh,
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later this week.
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Um,
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uh,
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if you have not joined yet,
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the Senate Fantasy League that we have going on,
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you should get in it because it's free to join
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and it's there's thousands of dollars in
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cash prizes just for predicting the winners
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of the Senate.
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It takes like 5 minutes to get your team in.
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It's a lot of fun.
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We're doing it now,
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Senate Fantasy.com.
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It's,
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uh,
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it's something I think you'll enjoy and hopefully,
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you'll definitely enjoy it if you win,
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because then you can,
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you know,
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either fill your prediction market account
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for investing in the future,
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or you can fill your belly with incredible amounts of Taco Bell.
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Uh,
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both of those things can happen with Senate Fantasy.com.
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And,
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and do we have the Senate Fantasy leaderboard,
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uh,
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up,
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by the way?
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This is,
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um,
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there's,
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you know,
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hundreds of people in it already.
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You start with 1000 points and then go up,
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up and down from there.
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The number 1 team right now is bring back the,
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the Redskins at number 1.
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Dave Landau for president is #2 currently.
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Interesting.
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Now,
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Dave told me today,
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uh,
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I do a show called Stu and Dave Do America
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as well on Blaze TV.
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Uh,
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something that I think you would enjoy.
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But,
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uh,
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Dave said he's gonna be putting a team in,
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but it's not in yet,
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so that's not Dave.
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Uh,
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so I don't know who this is,
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but Dave Landau for president,
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the Blue Tsunami,
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Dubbells,
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uh,
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Panic Day prophecy.
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And it's interesting if you look here,
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and I'm gonna skip over the 10th slot there.
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Well,
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first of all,
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number 9 is definitely not Stuber here.
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Now,
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that is not my team.
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However,
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I think I can plausibly claim it if it wins.
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Cause you're not gonna remember this segment.
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And if I say not,
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definitely not super good.
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That was a joke.
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It actually is my team,
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you'll believe that.
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I just,
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the,
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the sad thing I don't want to address here is that Adam,
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our producer,
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is somehow in 10th place in this competition,
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which is a travesty.
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It's a sham,
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it's a mockery.
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It's a Travis sham mockery.
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Um,
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but I will say this.
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If you look at Adam,
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Steve,
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click on your team there,
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Adam,
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for a minute.
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And this is,
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when you click on the team,
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is it,
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or if you're not,
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or if you're not logged in,
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this isn't gonna work,
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is it?
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Uh,
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you're probably not logged in.
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typical Adam.
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He could,
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he could pick a top 10 team,
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but he can't log in his own account.
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Anyway,
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uh,
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if you log in,
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you,
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you click on the teams and you can see.
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Everybody who's been picked.
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And we have this set up,
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like it's very easy for you to do.
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If you don't even know these races,
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you can still guess,
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uh,
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you know,
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you got a 1 or 2 chance in these,
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and,
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and they show the percentages.
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It's very easy.
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But,
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you know,
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you have to take certain things from certain areas.
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You can take,
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there's regional candidates,
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you have to take an east candidate,
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a south candidate,
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a west candidate,
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um,
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you know,
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you pick an MVP,
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you got to pick one Republican and one Democrat.
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So every single team
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has at least one of each.
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Some of these teams though I've noticed,
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are picking like,
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let's say,
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all Democrats.
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OK,
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now we can see it.
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Here's Adam's team.
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And this is an example of it.
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All Democrats,
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except for the one time,
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you have to pick a Republican.
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In this case,
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he picked a Darlene Graham Nordone.
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I mean,
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we know what Darlene Graham Nordone looks like.
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Can we get her picture up there?
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What,
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what's going on with the site?
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Adam Hamilton,
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just no picture.
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He's a major,
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uh,
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you know,
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uh,
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mega church pastor in Kansas,
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and,
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uh,
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just no picture of him.
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Uh,
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you mentioned this to Brett.
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Brett,
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he's,
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he's on the plane.
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He can fix it on the plane.
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Add some,
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add some pictures.
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Um,
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at the,
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at the,
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uh,
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double point MVP he has as Abdul El Sayed.
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He's got Tallarico and Troy Jackson and Ossoff and,
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Uh,
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Sherrod Brown and Pelt,
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he picked almost all Democrats thinking there's gonna be maybe a bluish wave.
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What's interesting about this,
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we built this tool really for fun.
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For you to be able to have a place to kind of just hang out,
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make some predictions,
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go against your friends.
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There's a share feature where you can kind of challenge your friends on this.
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I encourage you to use that.
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Uh,
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you can battle them on the leaderboard.
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It's just fun to see who can predict the election better.
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But what it's actually kind of done is it's almost
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turned into
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an interesting measure
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as to what's happening in the election.
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Go back to that leaderboard for a second.
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Um,
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if you go to the top of this list,
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um,
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and you'll see some of these teams,
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again,
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the number 1 team bring back the Redskins.
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Uh,
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if you click on that,
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I'm gonna just tell you without even looking at it,
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it's gonna be all look at us,
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all Democrats,
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right?
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Dave Landau for president,
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what's he got?
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Uh,
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let's see,
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uh,
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almost all Democrats,
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only one extra Republican outside of the minimum.
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The Blue tsunami
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is the next one.
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there's only one Republican outside of the minimum.
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Um,
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Dobbells is the 4th-place 1.
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Again,
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a couple of them in there,
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a couple of Republicans,
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but generally speaking,
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all the teams at the top of this list
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are people that just basically picked all Democrats.
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Now,
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look,
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the,
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the leaderboard is fun to look at.
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Um,
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Adam is bragging about it constantly and it's infuriating.
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Um,
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but
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it doesn't really make much of a difference until election day,
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right?
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You're gonna look at it on election day and say,
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hey,
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if,
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if your candidates lose,
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you're gonna be weighed out at the bottom.
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If your candidates win,
290
00:05:59.320 --> 00:06:00.510
you're gonna be weighed up at the top.
291
00:06:00.769 --> 00:06:01.739
That's how this works.
292
00:06:02.119 --> 00:06:02.359
So,
293
00:06:02.410 --> 00:06:02.519
uh,
294
00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:02.829
check it out,
295
00:06:02.950 --> 00:06:03.839
Senate Fantasy.com.
296
00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:04.040
And,
297
00:06:04.109 --> 00:06:04.709
and basically,
298
00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:05.940
it's telling us since
299
00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:07.640
we launched this competition,
300
00:06:07.679 --> 00:06:09.100
which is a couple of weeks ago,
301
00:06:09.359 --> 00:06:12.540
there has been movement in prediction markets toward Democrats
302
00:06:12.880 --> 00:06:13.640
all over the board.
303
00:06:14.420 --> 00:06:17.579
And that has been true every time I've checked it.
304
00:06:17.910 --> 00:06:18.459
I will say too,
305
00:06:18.510 --> 00:06:19.309
if you look at the leaderboard,
306
00:06:19.350 --> 00:06:20.149
you will see my team,
307
00:06:20.190 --> 00:06:21.390
and I'm not at the top,
308
00:06:21.470 --> 00:06:22.540
but I'm doing OK.
309
00:06:22.790 --> 00:06:22.980
I'm,
310
00:06:22.989 --> 00:06:23.299
I'm,
311
00:06:23.309 --> 00:06:23.739
uh,
312
00:06:23.750 --> 00:06:24.179
I don't know.
313
00:06:24.269 --> 00:06:25.029
I don't know what place I'm in.
314
00:06:25.059 --> 00:06:26.179
I don't know if you could find me real quick.
315
00:06:26.589 --> 00:06:27.890
The other thing I did notice is
316
00:06:28.149 --> 00:06:29.589
right behind me is now my son.
317
00:06:29.950 --> 00:06:30.140
Look at that,
318
00:06:30.190 --> 00:06:30.269
oh,
319
00:06:30.309 --> 00:06:30.390
no,
320
00:06:30.510 --> 00:06:31.070
now he's ahead of me.
321
00:06:31.119 --> 00:06:31.850
Oh no.
322
00:06:32.230 --> 00:06:32.350
No,
323
00:06:32.429 --> 00:06:33.649
this is terrible news.
324
00:06:34.190 --> 00:06:34.630
Edit this,
325
00:06:34.709 --> 00:06:35.809
edit this out of the show.
326
00:06:36.369 --> 00:06:36.589
Uh,
327
00:06:37.149 --> 00:06:37.309
get,
328
00:06:37.510 --> 00:06:38.369
get this out and post.
329
00:06:38.579 --> 00:06:39.649
ZB cards is my son,
330
00:06:39.989 --> 00:06:40.820
big sports card collector.
331
00:06:40.850 --> 00:06:41.399
I'm back to,
332
00:06:41.470 --> 00:06:42.230
I'm back to even,
333
00:06:42.269 --> 00:06:42.420
like,
334
00:06:42.429 --> 00:06:43.010
I haven't.
335
00:06:43.299 --> 00:06:43.500
I mean,
336
00:06:43.820 --> 00:06:43.940
you know,
337
00:06:44.019 --> 00:06:45.820
1000 points is basically where you start.
338
00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:46.769
So I'm at even it's,
339
00:06:46.779 --> 00:06:47.049
that's,
340
00:06:47.059 --> 00:06:47.290
uh,
341
00:06:47.299 --> 00:06:48.880
53rd place,
342
00:06:49.459 --> 00:06:49.660
uh,
343
00:06:49.779 --> 00:06:50.320
give or take,
344
00:06:50.709 --> 00:06:50.980
uh,
345
00:06:51.100 --> 00:06:52.579
and Zach and I are now tied.
346
00:06:52.779 --> 00:06:53.160
Um,
347
00:06:53.260 --> 00:06:53.559
but
348
00:06:53.779 --> 00:06:54.540
they have our employees,
349
00:06:54.609 --> 00:06:54.779
there's,
350
00:06:54.890 --> 00:06:56.700
there's a bunch of Blaze people who are adding their team.
351
00:06:56.790 --> 00:06:57.059
So anyway,
352
00:06:57.140 --> 00:06:57.540
that's just fun.
353
00:06:57.660 --> 00:06:58.010
Just do it.
354
00:06:58.160 --> 00:06:59.059
Senate Fantasy.com.
355
00:06:59.149 --> 00:07:00.760
does tell an interesting story though
356
00:07:01.019 --> 00:07:01.829
about the Senate,
357
00:07:02.059 --> 00:07:03.880
and polling tells a story,
358
00:07:04.260 --> 00:07:05.679
and prediction markets tell a story.
359
00:07:07.170 --> 00:07:08.089
I wanna show you,
360
00:07:08.250 --> 00:07:10.630
this is the Calci midterms hub.
361
00:07:10.730 --> 00:07:12.040
This is an interesting place for you.
362
00:07:12.089 --> 00:07:13.369
If you are a person who's like,
363
00:07:13.450 --> 00:07:13.609
I,
364
00:07:13.690 --> 00:07:14.350
I just wanna see
365
00:07:14.690 --> 00:07:15.089
who's gonna win.
366
00:07:15.160 --> 00:07:16.750
I don't care about your stupid fantasy leagues.
367
00:07:16.970 --> 00:07:18.119
I don't care about your,
368
00:07:18.130 --> 00:07:18.600
uh,
369
00:07:18.609 --> 00:07:18.869
your,
370
00:07:18.970 --> 00:07:20.209
your prediction markets.
371
00:07:20.290 --> 00:07:21.869
I don't really care about any of that.
372
00:07:22.329 --> 00:07:22.950
You're not alone,
373
00:07:23.040 --> 00:07:23.790
by the way.
374
00:07:24.329 --> 00:07:25.950
A lot of people who watch the show
375
00:07:26.209 --> 00:07:26.589
don't
376
00:07:27.010 --> 00:07:28.079
go on prediction markets at all,
377
00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:29.290
and that's totally fine.
378
00:07:29.619 --> 00:07:29.809
Um,
379
00:07:29.899 --> 00:07:30.730
getting the best election
380
00:07:31.230 --> 00:07:33.730
coverage and election information is the goal.
381
00:07:34.070 --> 00:07:35.260
Calci has a,
382
00:07:35.350 --> 00:07:35.829
an election,
383
00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:37.269
election midterms hub.
384
00:07:37.339 --> 00:07:38.089
Let's bring that up,
385
00:07:38.309 --> 00:07:38.549
um,
386
00:07:38.709 --> 00:07:38.899
that,
387
00:07:38.980 --> 00:07:39.109
uh,
388
00:07:39.269 --> 00:07:40.510
shows you kind of a map of the states.
389
00:07:40.619 --> 00:07:40.869
This is,
390
00:07:40.989 --> 00:07:41.950
these are all the states,
391
00:07:41.989 --> 00:07:42.100
uh,
392
00:07:42.149 --> 00:07:43.109
this is a Senate map.
393
00:07:43.630 --> 00:07:46.329
And it shows you where everything is with the percentages
394
00:07:46.549 --> 00:07:47.019
next to it,
395
00:07:47.029 --> 00:07:49.140
so you can kind of just see where states are leaning,
396
00:07:49.190 --> 00:07:50.989
at least according to these prediction markets.
397
00:07:51.230 --> 00:07:51.890
What do people
398
00:07:52.029 --> 00:07:54.589
who have their money on the line actually believe?
399
00:07:54.670 --> 00:07:55.709
Let's go to our Senate map.
400
00:07:55.779 --> 00:07:56.429
This is another tool,
401
00:07:56.470 --> 00:07:57.010
by the way,
402
00:07:57.220 --> 00:07:57.429
um,
403
00:07:57.510 --> 00:07:57.940
the Senate,
404
00:07:57.989 --> 00:07:58.380
uh,
405
00:07:58.470 --> 00:07:59.450
the Senate board,
406
00:07:59.700 --> 00:08:00.130
um,
407
00:08:00.480 --> 00:08:00.739
uh,
408
00:08:00.829 --> 00:08:03.049
that's another tool that we have for you
409
00:08:03.470 --> 00:08:05.130
to kind of be able to see.
410
00:08:06.179 --> 00:08:08.040
And play with Senate control.
411
00:08:08.299 --> 00:08:08.619
If you're saying,
412
00:08:08.700 --> 00:08:08.859
well,
413
00:08:08.940 --> 00:08:10.059
this state's kind of a toss-up,
414
00:08:10.100 --> 00:08:11.170
this state's leaning this way,
415
00:08:11.179 --> 00:08:13.040
and you can kind of drag the states around yourself
416
00:08:13.540 --> 00:08:14.559
and be able to see
417
00:08:15.059 --> 00:08:16.790
who has control of the Senate and who doesn't.
418
00:08:16.859 --> 00:08:18.100
And I thought it'd be an interesting exercise.
419
00:08:18.179 --> 00:08:19.209
We did this the other day with the,
420
00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:19.459
uh,
421
00:08:19.529 --> 00:08:20.540
with the election model,
422
00:08:20.700 --> 00:08:22.440
another free tool that we have up
423
00:08:22.660 --> 00:08:23.959
at predictableShow.com.
424
00:08:24.179 --> 00:08:25.230
Tons of this stuff is up there,
425
00:08:25.500 --> 00:08:26.279
and I built this.
426
00:08:26.730 --> 00:08:27.209
Honestly,
427
00:08:27.269 --> 00:08:27.790
for myself,
428
00:08:28.329 --> 00:08:28.640
uh,
429
00:08:28.649 --> 00:08:29.130
because I,
430
00:08:29.209 --> 00:08:30.690
this is how I think through the elections,
431
00:08:30.799 --> 00:08:31.049
and I,
432
00:08:31.089 --> 00:08:31.399
I thought,
433
00:08:31.609 --> 00:08:31.730
well,
434
00:08:31.809 --> 00:08:32.630
if I'm doing this,
435
00:08:32.640 --> 00:08:34.440
and I'm doing this for my prediction market positions,
436
00:08:34.650 --> 00:08:36.469
I want you to have access to this as well,
437
00:08:36.929 --> 00:08:38.900
and you can drag these states around wherever you want,
438
00:08:39.099 --> 00:08:39.409
and you can,
439
00:08:39.489 --> 00:08:41.440
it'll calculate for you in real time.
440
00:08:41.729 --> 00:08:44.109
So this is the predictable Senate board where we are right now,
441
00:08:44.369 --> 00:08:46.929
and I put all of these states that are,
442
00:08:46.969 --> 00:08:47.159
uh,
443
00:08:47.169 --> 00:08:48.169
in the toss-up category,
444
00:08:48.250 --> 00:08:49.169
we're gonna drag these,
445
00:08:49.409 --> 00:08:49.640
uh,
446
00:08:49.650 --> 00:08:50.710
to both sides
447
00:08:50.929 --> 00:08:53.950
as the prediction markets are predicting them right now.
448
00:08:54.510 --> 00:08:54.849
Um,
449
00:08:55.020 --> 00:08:56.299
we're gonna look at that and just.
450
00:08:57.020 --> 00:08:58.270
Make this sort of like,
451
00:08:58.330 --> 00:08:58.890
uh,
452
00:08:58.969 --> 00:09:00.679
if prediction markets are exactly right,
453
00:09:00.690 --> 00:09:02.440
and they probably won't be exactly right,
454
00:09:02.489 --> 00:09:03.119
I will say,
455
00:09:03.369 --> 00:09:05.510
when you're talking about 2 weeks out from any given
456
00:09:05.849 --> 00:09:06.330
data point,
457
00:09:06.409 --> 00:09:08.090
they are incredibly well calibrated.
458
00:09:08.330 --> 00:09:09.900
Millions of markets have been looked at.
459
00:09:10.280 --> 00:09:13.450
And if something it says it's a 20% chance to happen,
460
00:09:13.590 --> 00:09:15.289
happens about 20% of the time,
461
00:09:15.510 --> 00:09:16.280
20% of the time.
462
00:09:16.369 --> 00:09:18.130
So if you see a candidate that's at 20%,
463
00:09:18.330 --> 00:09:19.559
that doesn't mean they've lost.
464
00:09:19.809 --> 00:09:20.520
It just means that,
465
00:09:20.530 --> 00:09:20.960
uh,
466
00:09:20.969 --> 00:09:23.030
they will win about 20% of the time
467
00:09:23.369 --> 00:09:24.320
according to prediction markets,
468
00:09:24.330 --> 00:09:27.210
which have been proven incredibly accurate over long periods of time.
469
00:09:27.289 --> 00:09:28.200
You can always find mistakes.
470
00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:29.830
You can always find some that don't fit the bill,
471
00:09:30.570 --> 00:09:31.570
but generally speaking,
472
00:09:31.659 --> 00:09:32.200
they've done very,
473
00:09:32.250 --> 00:09:32.530
very well.
474
00:09:32.650 --> 00:09:33.919
So let's go through this right now.
475
00:09:34.059 --> 00:09:34.929
Let's start with Florida.
476
00:09:35.010 --> 00:09:35.630
Florida is,
477
00:09:35.650 --> 00:09:36.030
uh,
478
00:09:36.169 --> 00:09:37.229
kind of at the edge
479
00:09:37.450 --> 00:09:38.659
of the conversation of,
480
00:09:38.719 --> 00:09:39.000
uh,
481
00:09:39.010 --> 00:09:39.390
most,
482
00:09:39.450 --> 00:09:39.960
uh,
483
00:09:40.530 --> 00:09:40.849
Uh,
484
00:09:40.929 --> 00:09:41.890
of competitive,
485
00:09:42.130 --> 00:09:42.739
uh,
486
00:09:43.049 --> 00:09:43.450
Florida is,
487
00:09:43.530 --> 00:09:45.349
is leaning Republican for sure.
488
00:09:45.609 --> 00:09:45.719
Uh,
489
00:09:45.809 --> 00:09:48.200
so Florida will go to the Republican right now,
490
00:09:48.289 --> 00:09:49.650
that is Ashley Moody.
491
00:09:50.619 --> 00:09:52.330
And Moody is at,
492
00:09:52.789 --> 00:09:53.109
uh,
493
00:09:53.190 --> 00:09:53.630
let's see,
494
00:09:53.710 --> 00:09:55.070
90.
495
00:09:56.859 --> 00:09:57.690
90,
496
00:09:57.700 --> 00:09:58.950
90% chance to win.
497
00:09:59.140 --> 00:09:59.820
Ashley Moody.
498
00:10:00.140 --> 00:10:00.250
Uh,
499
00:10:00.380 --> 00:10:00.500
sorry,
500
00:10:00.619 --> 00:10:00.780
my,
501
00:10:00.820 --> 00:10:01.320
uh,
502
00:10:01.500 --> 00:10:03.599
my phone is acting up here as I'm doing this live.
503
00:10:03.849 --> 00:10:04.090
Uh,
504
00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:06.419
90% chance to win
505
00:10:06.700 --> 00:10:07.130
in,
506
00:10:07.219 --> 00:10:07.380
uh,
507
00:10:07.539 --> 00:10:08.419
Florida for Moody.
508
00:10:08.500 --> 00:10:11.340
So we'll drive it over to the right side and we'll reveal the top of this at the end,
509
00:10:11.440 --> 00:10:11.619
Adam,
510
00:10:11.739 --> 00:10:12.059
so don't,
511
00:10:12.099 --> 00:10:13.239
let's not go off of the screen.
512
00:10:13.590 --> 00:10:13.760
Uh,
513
00:10:13.869 --> 00:10:15.919
next up we will go with Minnesota.
514
00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:19.109
Minnesota is Peggy Flanagan going up against Michelle Tafoya.
515
00:10:19.479 --> 00:10:20.750
Been a competitive race and,
516
00:10:20.880 --> 00:10:20.989
and,
517
00:10:21.080 --> 00:10:23.179
and a race that I think Democrats are upset about
518
00:10:23.359 --> 00:10:23.979
it being
519
00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:25.710
competitive right now though,
520
00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:27.880
prediction markets don't see it as that close.
521
00:10:28.000 --> 00:10:30.239
They see it as a lean Democrat,
522
00:10:30.489 --> 00:10:33.260
an 88% chance for Peggy Flanagan
523
00:10:33.400 --> 00:10:34.260
to win that race,
524
00:10:34.719 --> 00:10:36.599
according to the Calci markets currently.
525
00:10:36.989 --> 00:10:37.250
Um,
526
00:10:37.349 --> 00:10:38.830
Alaska is up next.
527
00:10:38.940 --> 00:10:39.950
Alaska is,
528
00:10:40.190 --> 00:10:40.590
by the way,
529
00:10:40.669 --> 00:10:41.270
if you have,
530
00:10:41.390 --> 00:10:42.570
if you are a predictable
531
00:10:43.119 --> 00:10:44.099
premium member,
532
00:10:44.309 --> 00:10:46.429
you get access to every Senate race and
533
00:10:46.429 --> 00:10:48.109
how it matches up against prediction markets.
534
00:10:48.229 --> 00:10:49.390
The biggest gap
535
00:10:49.549 --> 00:10:50.020
in the entire,
536
00:10:50.109 --> 00:10:51.489
on the entire board is Alaska.
537
00:10:51.830 --> 00:10:54.530
The prediction markets are much more aggressive
538
00:10:54.830 --> 00:10:56.369
than the prediction model is.
539
00:10:56.750 --> 00:10:57.109
Um,
540
00:10:57.239 --> 00:10:59.130
the markets like Alaska
541
00:10:59.349 --> 00:11:00.969
quite a bit for the Democrats,
542
00:11:01.229 --> 00:11:01.619
and,
543
00:11:01.630 --> 00:11:01.830
uh,
544
00:11:01.989 --> 00:11:03.349
Mary Peltola,
545
00:11:03.590 --> 00:11:04.369
she is.
546
00:11:04.830 --> 00:11:05.390
Uh,
547
00:11:05.510 --> 00:11:08.109
coming in at 76% chance to win.
548
00:11:08.190 --> 00:11:10.390
So we'll drag that over to the Democratic side.
549
00:11:10.710 --> 00:11:12.690
Peltola at 76%.
550
00:11:13.030 --> 00:11:15.909
Up next is the state of South Carolina.
551
00:11:15.989 --> 00:11:17.210
We've mentioned that before,
552
00:11:17.520 --> 00:11:17.619
uh,
553
00:11:17.659 --> 00:11:19.109
with Darlene Graham Nordone.
554
00:11:19.229 --> 00:11:20.429
We don't know what she looks like.
555
00:11:20.549 --> 00:11:21.229
We have no,
556
00:11:21.349 --> 00:11:23.330
there are no known photographs
557
00:11:23.590 --> 00:11:25.309
of Darlene Graham Nordone.
558
00:11:25.729 --> 00:11:26.090
Uh,
559
00:11:26.570 --> 00:11:26.650
uh,
560
00:11:26.719 --> 00:11:28.650
but she has an 82% chance to win.
561
00:11:28.729 --> 00:11:28.989
So,
562
00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:29.320
uh,
563
00:11:29.450 --> 00:11:30.929
we're driving over to the Republican side.
564
00:11:31.210 --> 00:11:32.849
We'll drive these all just to the leanners for now,
565
00:11:32.929 --> 00:11:32.969
uh,
566
00:11:33.080 --> 00:11:33.210
Adam,
567
00:11:33.289 --> 00:11:33.679
as we go,
568
00:11:33.770 --> 00:11:34.270
as we go.
569
00:11:34.570 --> 00:11:34.830
OK,
570
00:11:34.890 --> 00:11:35.359
um,
571
00:11:35.489 --> 00:11:37.650
next up is the state of Mississippi.
572
00:11:37.809 --> 00:11:40.070
How is this a state that's not like decided?
573
00:11:40.119 --> 00:11:41.489
It's freaking Mississippi.
574
00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:42.710
But Mississippi,
575
00:11:42.760 --> 00:11:44.239
when it comes to prediction markets,
576
00:11:44.520 --> 00:11:45.000
they have,
577
00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:45.390
uh,
578
00:11:45.599 --> 00:11:46.159
Scott Colom,
579
00:11:46.239 --> 00:11:46.979
the Democrat,
580
00:11:47.320 --> 00:11:48.140
a chance to win,
581
00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:48.400
uh,
582
00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:48.559
uh,
583
00:11:48.640 --> 00:11:49.630
that is in double digits,
584
00:11:49.679 --> 00:11:51.989
which is a lot if you think about the state of Mississippi,
585
00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:53.479
but Sydney Hyde-Smith still the heavy favorite,
586
00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:54.380
89%
587
00:11:54.599 --> 00:11:56.940
will go over to the Republican side
588
00:11:57.280 --> 00:11:57.700
there.
589
00:11:58.080 --> 00:11:58.340
Then
590
00:11:58.520 --> 00:12:00.400
the next state we will go to is Kansas.
591
00:12:00.510 --> 00:12:03.059
We're getting into the real toss-up territory now.
592
00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:04.359
Kansas.
593
00:12:04.580 --> 00:12:07.049
Is Adam Hamilton versus Roger Marshall.
594
00:12:07.380 --> 00:12:07.659
Marshall,
595
00:12:07.700 --> 00:12:08.460
the Republican,
596
00:12:08.580 --> 00:12:10.260
still with a lead according to prediction markets,
597
00:12:10.299 --> 00:12:11.640
61% chance
598
00:12:11.820 --> 00:12:12.770
for Roger Marshall.
599
00:12:13.010 --> 00:12:15.179
We'll drag that over to the Republican side.
600
00:12:15.500 --> 00:12:15.780
Uh,
601
00:12:15.859 --> 00:12:19.239
and that is a race where the polling is not necessarily
602
00:12:19.460 --> 00:12:20.640
in line with the markets.
603
00:12:21.140 --> 00:12:24.080
Polling seems to be leaning in the very slightest bit
604
00:12:24.299 --> 00:12:24.929
towards Hamilton,
605
00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:27.440
though I believe Roger Marshall led the most recent poll,
606
00:12:27.700 --> 00:12:27.859
very,
607
00:12:27.940 --> 00:12:28.799
very close state.
608
00:12:29.099 --> 00:12:30.739
Certainly a toss-up at this point,
609
00:12:30.820 --> 00:12:32.460
but we're gonna drag it no matter what,
610
00:12:32.539 --> 00:12:32.659
uh,
611
00:12:32.729 --> 00:12:33.179
into the,
612
00:12:33.219 --> 00:12:33.409
uh,
613
00:12:33.500 --> 00:12:34.840
into one of the two categories.
614
00:12:35.099 --> 00:12:35.419
Next up,
615
00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:37.179
we will go with,
616
00:12:37.299 --> 00:12:38.200
let's go Texas.
617
00:12:39.080 --> 00:12:40.190
Texas up next.
618
00:12:40.260 --> 00:12:40.530
Uh,
619
00:12:40.690 --> 00:12:42.299
James Tallarico has been leading in the polls,
620
00:12:42.359 --> 00:12:42.830
although
621
00:12:43.400 --> 00:12:46.609
Paxton led a poll recently and has closed the gap from these
622
00:12:46.609 --> 00:12:49.919
4 and 6-point margins to more like 1 or 2-point margins.
623
00:12:50.349 --> 00:12:52.859
One of our kind of thesis statements on this program is to say,
624
00:12:52.969 --> 00:12:53.190
hey,
625
00:12:53.409 --> 00:12:53.530
you know,
626
00:12:53.609 --> 00:12:54.750
when you get closer to an election,
627
00:12:55.590 --> 00:12:57.690
What you generally see happening
628
00:12:58.030 --> 00:12:59.349
is people coming home.
629
00:13:00.010 --> 00:13:00.450
Um,
630
00:13:00.530 --> 00:13:00.869
and,
631
00:13:00.940 --> 00:13:01.130
uh,
632
00:13:01.210 --> 00:13:02.489
if you're a Republican voter,
633
00:13:02.570 --> 00:13:04.409
you maybe you're a little upset with Paxton,
634
00:13:04.830 --> 00:13:04.849
yeah,
635
00:13:04.989 --> 00:13:05.929
you get to that voting booth,
636
00:13:05.960 --> 00:13:06.489
you kind of say,
637
00:13:06.570 --> 00:13:06.890
you know what,
638
00:13:06.929 --> 00:13:07.989
I don't want a Democrat,
639
00:13:08.380 --> 00:13:08.599
uh,
640
00:13:08.609 --> 00:13:08.909
Senate,
641
00:13:09.280 --> 00:13:09.400
uh,
642
00:13:09.489 --> 00:13:10.289
so you might come home.
643
00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:11.330
Texas right now,
644
00:13:11.409 --> 00:13:11.729
however,
645
00:13:11.979 --> 00:13:12.710
still favored
646
00:13:12.890 --> 00:13:13.919
for Democrats,
647
00:13:14.010 --> 00:13:17.409
a 62% chance for James Tallarico to win that race,
648
00:13:17.450 --> 00:13:17.989
according to
649
00:13:18.229 --> 00:13:19.090
Calie right now.
650
00:13:19.130 --> 00:13:21.190
We'll drag that over to the Democratic side.
651
00:13:21.570 --> 00:13:21.760
Uh,
652
00:13:21.770 --> 00:13:23.369
a few more races to go here.
653
00:13:23.450 --> 00:13:24.770
Let's go to Ohio.
654
00:13:25.210 --> 00:13:25.380
Uh,
655
00:13:25.489 --> 00:13:26.700
Ohio is a,
656
00:13:26.820 --> 00:13:27.130
is a,
657
00:13:27.179 --> 00:13:28.640
is an interesting race.
658
00:13:28.900 --> 00:13:29.250
It is,
659
00:13:29.299 --> 00:13:29.460
uh,
660
00:13:29.659 --> 00:13:30.280
Sherrod Brown,
661
00:13:30.419 --> 00:13:32.809
former senator from the state of Ohio,
662
00:13:33.099 --> 00:13:34.280
going up against the current
663
00:13:34.559 --> 00:13:35.820
appointed senator,
664
00:13:36.099 --> 00:13:36.900
John Husted.
665
00:13:37.020 --> 00:13:39.599
He was appointed when JD Vance became vice president.
666
00:13:39.900 --> 00:13:40.049
Uh,
667
00:13:40.140 --> 00:13:40.900
and right now,
668
00:13:40.979 --> 00:13:43.330
prediction markets like Sherrod Brown to win the race,
669
00:13:43.380 --> 00:13:44.880
65% chance
670
00:13:45.010 --> 00:13:45.690
for Sherrod Brown.
671
00:13:45.700 --> 00:13:47.119
That'll go to the leading Democrat
672
00:13:47.460 --> 00:13:48.559
in this particular
673
00:13:49.140 --> 00:13:51.520
race in a special election in Ohio.
674
00:13:52.309 --> 00:13:52.809
Michigan,
675
00:13:52.950 --> 00:13:53.469
we know this one.
676
00:13:53.530 --> 00:13:54.390
Abdul El Sayed,
677
00:13:54.500 --> 00:13:55.770
big debate tomorrow night,
678
00:13:55.900 --> 00:13:56.429
by the way.
679
00:13:56.549 --> 00:13:58.989
El Sayed again going up against Mike Rogers.
680
00:13:59.030 --> 00:14:00.989
It was a really vicious debate last time.
681
00:14:01.059 --> 00:14:02.609
They're both got each other's throats.
682
00:14:02.989 --> 00:14:03.219
Uh,
683
00:14:03.309 --> 00:14:03.989
I don't know if you,
684
00:14:04.059 --> 00:14:04.179
uh,
685
00:14:04.510 --> 00:14:04.830
personally,
686
00:14:04.869 --> 00:14:06.210
not a huge fan of the style,
687
00:14:06.950 --> 00:14:07.229
um,
688
00:14:07.309 --> 00:14:07.750
of,
689
00:14:08.030 --> 00:14:08.710
of El Sayed,
690
00:14:08.789 --> 00:14:08.900
but,
691
00:14:08.909 --> 00:14:09.150
you know,
692
00:14:09.270 --> 00:14:10.570
I'm not a fan of his politics either,
693
00:14:10.700 --> 00:14:11.109
frankly.
694
00:14:11.429 --> 00:14:11.710
Um,
695
00:14:11.830 --> 00:14:14.030
so Michigan though is still leaning Democrats,
696
00:14:14.070 --> 00:14:16.929
68% chance for El Sayed to pull that one off.
697
00:14:17.309 --> 00:14:19.169
The polling's been very close there.
698
00:14:19.349 --> 00:14:21.289
We pulled that over to the Democratic side.
699
00:14:21.520 --> 00:14:22.479
Two more states to go,
700
00:14:22.669 --> 00:14:23.070
Maine,
701
00:14:23.150 --> 00:14:23.429
of course,
702
00:14:23.619 --> 00:14:25.330
Susan Collins versus,
703
00:14:25.780 --> 00:14:26.179
um,
704
00:14:26.390 --> 00:14:26.830
Jackson.
705
00:14:26.909 --> 00:14:28.090
Troy Jackson is there.
706
00:14:28.619 --> 00:14:31.409
This is one of the closest races in the entire Senate,
707
00:14:31.510 --> 00:14:32.169
and right now,
708
00:14:32.179 --> 00:14:33.609
63% chance
709
00:14:33.909 --> 00:14:36.169
for Troy Jackson to pull it off
710
00:14:36.390 --> 00:14:37.419
over Susan Collins.
711
00:14:37.429 --> 00:14:37.789
Jackson,
712
00:14:37.909 --> 00:14:40.289
who told Collins to shut up in the middle of the debate
713
00:14:40.630 --> 00:14:41.109
the other night.
714
00:14:42.179 --> 00:14:43.630
Which I guess is a positive in Maine.
715
00:14:43.710 --> 00:14:43.960
I don't,
716
00:14:44.059 --> 00:14:44.369
I,
717
00:14:44.989 --> 00:14:45.210
maybe,
718
00:14:45.229 --> 00:14:46.210
I don't think she was saying it.
719
00:14:46.469 --> 00:14:47.020
All she said was,
720
00:14:47.030 --> 00:14:49.229
I think someone was protesting in the crowd and I think I,
721
00:14:49.429 --> 00:14:49.669
she said,
722
00:14:49.710 --> 00:14:51.359
I think that's one of Tory Jackson's supporters.
723
00:14:51.630 --> 00:14:51.710
She,
724
00:14:51.789 --> 00:14:52.150
she goes,
725
00:14:52.190 --> 00:14:52.390
oh,
726
00:14:52.489 --> 00:14:53.150
shut up.
727
00:14:54.770 --> 00:14:55.719
He's quite a character.
728
00:14:55.929 --> 00:14:57.030
I don't think he's a very good candidate,
729
00:14:57.090 --> 00:14:58.989
but he is leading 63% chance,
730
00:14:59.280 --> 00:14:59.500
uh,
731
00:14:59.609 --> 00:15:00.969
for Troy Jackson
732
00:15:01.130 --> 00:15:02.130
in prediction markets.
733
00:15:02.289 --> 00:15:03.049
And that leaves us with,
734
00:15:03.130 --> 00:15:03.260
uh,
735
00:15:03.369 --> 00:15:04.520
that we've read that to the Democratic side,
736
00:15:04.609 --> 00:15:05.989
that leaves us with only Iowa.
737
00:15:06.330 --> 00:15:09.440
Iowa is the closest state by most measures
738
00:15:09.570 --> 00:15:10.640
when it comes to prediction markets.
739
00:15:10.809 --> 00:15:13.479
Polling is back and forth between Turk and Hinson.
740
00:15:13.849 --> 00:15:14.789
This is a race,
741
00:15:15.450 --> 00:15:18.510
another tool that we have built here at PredictableShow.com.
742
00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:20.219
Is,
743
00:15:20.580 --> 00:15:20.770
uh,
744
00:15:20.859 --> 00:15:22.909
the Republican freak out index,
745
00:15:23.140 --> 00:15:25.880
which kind of shows you which states you could see real problems
746
00:15:26.179 --> 00:15:27.419
and for Republicans,
747
00:15:27.539 --> 00:15:27.650
uh,
748
00:15:27.739 --> 00:15:31.729
and Iowa is up there near the top of the list with factors like fuel prices,
749
00:15:31.799 --> 00:15:32.010
uh,
750
00:15:32.030 --> 00:15:32.969
going up the most,
751
00:15:33.340 --> 00:15:34.380
diesel prices,
752
00:15:34.460 --> 00:15:34.890
um,
753
00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:35.380
uh,
754
00:15:35.539 --> 00:15:36.580
also tariffs,
755
00:15:36.590 --> 00:15:36.729
uh,
756
00:15:36.739 --> 00:15:38.030
affecting that area quite a bit.
757
00:15:38.419 --> 00:15:38.539
Uh,
758
00:15:38.659 --> 00:15:39.940
so Iowa goes,
759
00:15:40.030 --> 00:15:40.219
uh,
760
00:15:40.340 --> 00:15:41.380
in this particular race,
761
00:15:41.460 --> 00:15:41.739
however,
762
00:15:41.979 --> 00:15:42.679
still sticking
763
00:15:43.020 --> 00:15:43.960
with the Republicans,
764
00:15:44.059 --> 00:15:46.619
only a 58% chance for Henson to win there.
765
00:15:46.950 --> 00:15:47.090
Uh,
766
00:15:47.150 --> 00:15:49.429
that was one of my favorite races coming into this election.
767
00:15:49.510 --> 00:15:51.169
I really like that position quite a bit,
768
00:15:51.429 --> 00:15:53.150
and it is making me nervous.
769
00:15:53.229 --> 00:15:53.510
I will,
770
00:15:53.590 --> 00:15:54.270
I will be honest with you,
771
00:15:54.309 --> 00:15:55.739
it's making me a little nervous.
772
00:15:56.030 --> 00:15:57.099
It's the polling has been very,
773
00:15:57.179 --> 00:15:57.469
very close.
774
00:15:57.590 --> 00:15:57.989
So that's it.
775
00:15:58.030 --> 00:15:59.450
Let's reveal the top of this list.
776
00:15:59.510 --> 00:16:01.390
What is our count here in the Senate?
777
00:16:01.640 --> 00:16:02.950
da da dun dun dun.
778
00:16:03.049 --> 00:16:03.780
Ah,
779
00:16:04.270 --> 00:16:04.469
Democrats,
780
00:16:04.510 --> 00:16:05.380
52,
781
00:16:06.270 --> 00:16:06.739
Republicans,
782
00:16:07.150 --> 00:16:07.989
48.
783
00:16:08.760 --> 00:16:10.539
Holding up a little bit low,
784
00:16:10.719 --> 00:16:11.030
uh,
785
00:16:11.039 --> 00:16:13.840
for the Republicans in this particular race.
786
00:16:14.039 --> 00:16:15.080
This is the same count,
787
00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:16.020
I believe
788
00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:19.429
that the predic predictable midterm consensus,
789
00:16:19.640 --> 00:16:22.270
our election model showed last week,
790
00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:23.679
52-48,
791
00:16:23.719 --> 00:16:24.080
a slight.
792
00:16:24.275 --> 00:16:24.974
Lean to Democrats,
793
00:16:25.075 --> 00:16:26.815
although you have very close races.
794
00:16:27.784 --> 00:16:29.744
Republicans could easily win Texas,
795
00:16:30.085 --> 00:16:30.424
Maine,
796
00:16:30.984 --> 00:16:31.465
Michigan,
797
00:16:31.724 --> 00:16:32.244
Ohio,
798
00:16:32.325 --> 00:16:32.945
Alaska,
799
00:16:33.364 --> 00:16:33.794
Minnesota.
800
00:16:33.835 --> 00:16:33.965
I mean,
801
00:16:34.005 --> 00:16:35.244
the polling is showing it very close.
802
00:16:35.364 --> 00:16:36.364
I'd be pretty,
803
00:16:36.484 --> 00:16:36.705
uh,
804
00:16:36.744 --> 00:16:37.674
I'd be pretty surprised,
805
00:16:37.724 --> 00:16:38.075
frankly,
806
00:16:38.125 --> 00:16:39.744
if Republicans win in Minnesota.
807
00:16:40.044 --> 00:16:40.325
Um,
808
00:16:40.474 --> 00:16:40.565
you know,
809
00:16:40.645 --> 00:16:41.474
Michelle Tafoy is there,
810
00:16:41.544 --> 00:16:42.525
run a pretty good campaign.
811
00:16:42.604 --> 00:16:44.525
Peggy Flanagan dresses very oddly.
812
00:16:45.460 --> 00:16:46.000
Uh,
813
00:16:47.469 --> 00:16:48.229
Very strange dresser.
814
00:16:48.309 --> 00:16:48.909
You can bring us up,
815
00:16:48.979 --> 00:16:49.179
uh,
816
00:16:49.190 --> 00:16:50.349
back up to the window if you want.
817
00:16:50.419 --> 00:16:50.590
Um,
818
00:16:50.669 --> 00:16:50.950
but,
819
00:16:51.190 --> 00:16:51.409
uh,
820
00:16:51.419 --> 00:16:52.090
bottom line is,
821
00:16:52.109 --> 00:16:52.630
uh,
822
00:16:53.510 --> 00:16:54.549
It's a very close race.
823
00:16:55.770 --> 00:16:56.489
Very close,
824
00:16:56.570 --> 00:16:59.169
and it is 52-48 in that particular measure.
825
00:16:59.289 --> 00:16:59.369
Now,
826
00:16:59.409 --> 00:17:00.479
let me show you the polls,
827
00:17:00.489 --> 00:17:02.140
just so we can get a sense as to where these polls go,
828
00:17:02.169 --> 00:17:02.510
because
829
00:17:02.729 --> 00:17:03.590
one thing I have seen
830
00:17:04.040 --> 00:17:05.229
over the past couple of days,
831
00:17:05.530 --> 00:17:07.689
you can put me in a little window box if you want on some of these,
832
00:17:07.770 --> 00:17:08.560
uh,
833
00:17:08.569 --> 00:17:08.598
uh,
834
00:17:08.608 --> 00:17:08.848
Adam,
835
00:17:08.959 --> 00:17:09.079
uh,
836
00:17:09.130 --> 00:17:09.430
but
837
00:17:09.608 --> 00:17:09.810
they,
838
00:17:09.930 --> 00:17:11.630
they have this situation
839
00:17:12.329 --> 00:17:12.910
where,
840
00:17:13.180 --> 00:17:13.848
uh,
841
00:17:14.170 --> 00:17:14.329
you know,
842
00:17:14.410 --> 00:17:16.229
you have a really weird
843
00:17:16.689 --> 00:17:17.310
vibe
844
00:17:17.410 --> 00:17:17.890
going on.
845
00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:19.560
Because prediction marks,
846
00:17:19.598 --> 00:17:21.229
as I showed you with the Senate Fantasy League,
847
00:17:21.479 --> 00:17:23.900
the Democratic teams are rising to the top.
848
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:24.920
Over and over and over again,
849
00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:27.180
the Democratic heavy teams are near the top of the list.
850
00:17:28.619 --> 00:17:33.060
Which would indicate movement in the past couple of weeks toward Democrats.
851
00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:36.969
But we're not really seeing that that much in the polls.
852
00:17:37.089 --> 00:17:37.489
Let me show you,
853
00:17:37.689 --> 00:17:39.229
click on Senate at the top here.
854
00:17:39.329 --> 00:17:40.400
We're doing Senate now and,
855
00:17:40.469 --> 00:17:42.180
and we'll come back maybe with the governors here in a little bit,
856
00:17:42.250 --> 00:17:43.569
but this is the Senate races.
857
00:17:43.930 --> 00:17:44.680
If you click on Senate,
858
00:17:44.689 --> 00:17:45.890
this will sort it by the Senate,
859
00:17:45.900 --> 00:17:47.189
and you see Peltola,
860
00:17:47.800 --> 00:17:48.319
um,
861
00:17:48.500 --> 00:17:48.640
uh,
862
00:17:48.729 --> 00:17:49.369
toward the top there.
863
00:17:49.489 --> 00:17:50.729
Peltola up by 2.
864
00:17:50.939 --> 00:17:51.510
That is
865
00:17:51.969 --> 00:17:53.670
probably a good poll
866
00:17:54.250 --> 00:17:55.439
for Republicans.
867
00:17:55.569 --> 00:17:55.729
Uh,
868
00:17:55.810 --> 00:17:58.750
we've seen wider margins in Alaska than just 2 points.
869
00:17:59.160 --> 00:17:59.890
Pretty close.
870
00:18:00.400 --> 00:18:01.579
Then you see Ricketts,
871
00:18:01.760 --> 00:18:02.000
uh,
872
00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:02.719
in Nebraska,
873
00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:04.229
just go looking a few down,
874
00:18:04.479 --> 00:18:05.040
plus 3.
875
00:18:05.160 --> 00:18:05.270
Now,
876
00:18:05.280 --> 00:18:06.719
that is a Republican sponsor,
877
00:18:06.760 --> 00:18:08.939
always important to understand who's taking the poll,
878
00:18:09.439 --> 00:18:11.819
but Ricketts leading by 3 points
879
00:18:12.040 --> 00:18:12.699
in that race,
880
00:18:12.760 --> 00:18:14.579
a pretty good poll for Republicans.
881
00:18:14.880 --> 00:18:15.160
Um,
882
00:18:15.239 --> 00:18:15.760
New Hampshire,
883
00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:16.979
Pappas plus,
884
00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:17.439
what is that,
885
00:18:17.479 --> 00:18:18.119
6
886
00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:19.040
and 7,
887
00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:19.439
depending on,
888
00:18:19.469 --> 00:18:19.750
uh,
889
00:18:19.760 --> 00:18:19.910
who,
890
00:18:20.160 --> 00:18:21.079
what the measure is there,
891
00:18:21.140 --> 00:18:21.390
but
892
00:18:21.670 --> 00:18:22.359
Um,
893
00:18:22.709 --> 00:18:23.609
that is a
894
00:18:24.410 --> 00:18:25.260
bit about average,
895
00:18:25.349 --> 00:18:27.290
maybe a little bit better for Republicans.
896
00:18:27.589 --> 00:18:27.829
Uh,
897
00:18:28.109 --> 00:18:28.500
Sununu,
898
00:18:28.609 --> 00:18:28.790
um,
899
00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:31.609
a little closer than it has been previous polls we've seen.
900
00:18:32.109 --> 00:18:33.800
Then you have Iowa,
901
00:18:33.910 --> 00:18:35.010
Hinson leading.
902
00:18:35.270 --> 00:18:35.739
She's led,
903
00:18:35.949 --> 00:18:36.790
led in some polls,
904
00:18:36.829 --> 00:18:38.500
but trailed in some polls.
905
00:18:38.869 --> 00:18:38.969
Uh,
906
00:18:39.150 --> 00:18:41.719
here she's up by 3 points over Josh Turrick
907
00:18:42.219 --> 00:18:42.750
in Iowa.
908
00:18:42.829 --> 00:18:43.069
Again,
909
00:18:43.510 --> 00:18:44.060
Republican sponsor,
910
00:18:44.109 --> 00:18:45.510
but a good result for Republicans.
911
00:18:45.869 --> 00:18:46.449
Um,
912
00:18:46.589 --> 00:18:47.150
generally speaking,
913
00:18:47.280 --> 00:18:47.910
Montana,
914
00:18:48.030 --> 00:18:48.150
uh,
915
00:18:48.189 --> 00:18:48.439
uh,
916
00:18:48.589 --> 00:18:48.750
is,
917
00:18:48.829 --> 00:18:49.030
uh,
918
00:18:49.150 --> 00:18:50.829
Almay up by 16.
919
00:18:51.459 --> 00:18:53.020
Good result for Republicans from Qantas,
920
00:18:53.390 --> 00:18:54.229
South Dakota,
921
00:18:54.469 --> 00:18:54.589
uh,
922
00:18:54.689 --> 00:18:56.030
Rounds up by 17.
923
00:18:56.229 --> 00:18:56.550
Again,
924
00:18:56.660 --> 00:18:57.750
this is a Rounds poll,
925
00:18:57.829 --> 00:18:59.089
you could take a grain of salt there,
926
00:18:59.109 --> 00:18:59.670
but that's,
927
00:19:00.020 --> 00:19:01.660
A pretty good result for Republicans.
928
00:19:01.989 --> 00:19:02.689
North Carolina,
929
00:19:02.910 --> 00:19:04.170
Cooper up by 11,
930
00:19:04.390 --> 00:19:05.699
about where we've expected it,
931
00:19:05.750 --> 00:19:07.729
maybe a little bit leaning toward Democrats there
932
00:19:07.949 --> 00:19:10.469
as far as where we've seen recent polling go.
933
00:19:10.670 --> 00:19:11.270
Alabama,
934
00:19:11.280 --> 00:19:12.109
Moore up by 21,
935
00:19:12.189 --> 00:19:12.949
should win easily there.
936
00:19:13.069 --> 00:19:16.069
Reed up by 23 for the Democrats in Rhode Island and blah,
937
00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:16.310
blah,
938
00:19:16.349 --> 00:19:16.869
blah blah blah.
939
00:19:16.969 --> 00:19:17.510
Markey way up,
940
00:19:17.569 --> 00:19:18.369
we know that.
941
00:19:18.680 --> 00:19:19.020
Um,
942
00:19:19.229 --> 00:19:20.390
Sherrod Brown up by 4,
943
00:19:20.469 --> 00:19:21.609
a smaller
944
00:19:21.949 --> 00:19:23.579
lead than we've seen recently.
945
00:19:23.869 --> 00:19:25.469
Henson again leading in the next poll,
946
00:19:25.579 --> 00:19:25.770
uh,
947
00:19:25.949 --> 00:19:27.630
Florida Republicans leading.
948
00:19:27.910 --> 00:19:28.189
Um,
949
00:19:28.270 --> 00:19:30.479
Ossoff up by 7 is about where that one's been.
950
00:19:30.560 --> 00:19:30.810
So,
951
00:19:30.979 --> 00:19:31.939
bottom line is,
952
00:19:32.560 --> 00:19:33.910
over the past couple of weeks,
953
00:19:33.959 --> 00:19:34.880
the polling.
954
00:19:36.040 --> 00:19:37.459
Has been relatively stable.
955
00:19:37.640 --> 00:19:38.020
If
956
00:19:38.680 --> 00:19:38.819
anything,
957
00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:41.359
I would say it's slightly leaned towards Republicans.
958
00:19:41.400 --> 00:19:43.130
It's moved towards Republicans,
959
00:19:43.199 --> 00:19:44.160
the slightest amount.
960
00:19:44.439 --> 00:19:44.550
Now,
961
00:19:44.560 --> 00:19:45.819
I wouldn't go crazy with that.
962
00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:46.689
I wouldn't say that,
963
00:19:46.839 --> 00:19:47.079
oh gosh,
964
00:19:47.400 --> 00:19:48.439
Republicans have tons of momentum.
965
00:19:48.520 --> 00:19:49.319
I wouldn't say that's true,
966
00:19:49.400 --> 00:19:49.699
but
967
00:19:50.040 --> 00:19:51.900
what I will say is I don't see the evidence
968
00:19:52.319 --> 00:19:55.739
for movement in prediction markets toward Democrats
969
00:19:55.959 --> 00:19:57.189
at the levels we've seen it.
970
00:19:57.949 --> 00:20:01.699
And what's interesting about that is I think there's a couple of explanations.
971
00:20:02.560 --> 00:20:04.260
And they're more internal
972
00:20:04.719 --> 00:20:05.949
prediction market,
973
00:20:06.280 --> 00:20:06.750
uh,
974
00:20:06.760 --> 00:20:08.660
explanations than they are,
975
00:20:08.959 --> 00:20:09.420
um,
976
00:20:10.079 --> 00:20:11.579
outside election
977
00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.219
type of um relationships.
978
00:20:14.680 --> 00:20:15.349
First of all,
979
00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:17.819
we are now starting to see money
980
00:20:18.479 --> 00:20:19.959
really flowing into these markets.
981
00:20:20.040 --> 00:20:21.099
We're 2 weeks away.
982
00:20:21.579 --> 00:20:24.219
We saw this constantly through the primary process where people,
983
00:20:24.339 --> 00:20:25.660
there would be tons of money in,
984
00:20:25.780 --> 00:20:25.930
you know,
985
00:20:26.099 --> 00:20:27.319
two states that had primaries.
986
00:20:27.660 --> 00:20:29.900
The money would uh resolve from that primary,
987
00:20:29.959 --> 00:20:31.180
they'd move to the next primary.
988
00:20:31.260 --> 00:20:34.170
We saw that over and over and over again to a point that during primary season,
989
00:20:34.219 --> 00:20:36.920
we started trying to get ahead of those primaries a little bit more
990
00:20:37.099 --> 00:20:38.170
to catch more value.
991
00:20:38.739 --> 00:20:38.880
Because,
992
00:20:39.060 --> 00:20:39.380
uh,
993
00:20:39.469 --> 00:20:41.239
you'd see these favorites,
994
00:20:41.500 --> 00:20:43.099
maybe they should have been 92%,
995
00:20:43.180 --> 00:20:44.400
91% favorites,
996
00:20:45.260 --> 00:20:48.020
constantly cracking in at 98% and 99%.
997
00:20:48.829 --> 00:20:51.140
Eliminating all the value from the heavy favorites.
998
00:20:51.260 --> 00:20:54.099
That's because money was flowing in from big time players,
999
00:20:54.380 --> 00:20:54.579
right?
1000
00:20:54.859 --> 00:20:55.790
Moving the markets
1001
00:20:55.890 --> 00:20:56.719
a few points
1002
00:20:56.939 --> 00:20:59.439
and making those favorites a little bit more of a sure thing
1003
00:20:59.979 --> 00:21:01.020
than they otherwise would be.
1004
00:21:01.939 --> 00:21:04.920
I think that's starting to happen in these big election markets now.
1005
00:21:05.140 --> 00:21:08.020
We're starting to see a point where I think I'm starting to see things,
1006
00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:08.369
uh,
1007
00:21:08.430 --> 00:21:09.260
people who are.
1008
00:21:09.699 --> 00:21:09.900
You know,
1009
00:21:10.089 --> 00:21:11.800
should be around 90%,
1010
00:21:12.280 --> 00:21:13.400
92%
1011
00:21:13.660 --> 00:21:14.619
showing up at 95%,
1012
00:21:14.699 --> 00:21:15.219
96,
1013
00:21:15.280 --> 00:21:15.890
97%.
1014
00:21:16.180 --> 00:21:17.260
People who should be,
1015
00:21:17.380 --> 00:21:17.420
uh,
1016
00:21:17.500 --> 00:21:17.619
you know,
1017
00:21:17.660 --> 00:21:17.739
I,
1018
00:21:17.839 --> 00:21:18.260
I'll give you those,
1019
00:21:18.329 --> 00:21:18.910
some of those races,
1020
00:21:19.010 --> 00:21:20.849
those mid-level races for Democrats,
1021
00:21:20.900 --> 00:21:22.319
the Peeltolas of the world,
1022
00:21:22.579 --> 00:21:22.859
um,
1023
00:21:23.020 --> 00:21:23.219
you know,
1024
00:21:23.420 --> 00:21:24.380
Sherrod Browns of the world.
1025
00:21:24.459 --> 00:21:26.699
Like Sherrod Brown's polling has not necessarily
1026
00:21:26.699 --> 00:21:27.969
improved over the past couple of weeks.
1027
00:21:28.260 --> 00:21:30.760
Yet his numbers on prediction markets are up considerably.
1028
00:21:31.060 --> 00:21:32.680
I know that he's on my fantasy team.
1029
00:21:32.939 --> 00:21:33.319
Um,
1030
00:21:33.459 --> 00:21:33.849
uh,
1031
00:21:34.020 --> 00:21:34.619
Peltola,
1032
00:21:34.890 --> 00:21:35.300
same story.
1033
00:21:35.380 --> 00:21:35.979
El Sayed,
1034
00:21:36.140 --> 00:21:36.839
same story.
1035
00:21:37.300 --> 00:21:38.949
Their polling hasn't gotten any better.
1036
00:21:39.819 --> 00:21:43.140
There's no real external reason for these markets to be
1037
00:21:43.140 --> 00:21:45.400
moving except that just money starting to settle in,
1038
00:21:45.619 --> 00:21:48.060
in places where people believe the winner's going to be.
1039
00:21:48.500 --> 00:21:50.479
We are getting a lot of internal polling as well.
1040
00:21:50.699 --> 00:21:52.859
You're starting to see the rating agencies,
1041
00:21:52.939 --> 00:21:53.420
if you will,
1042
00:21:53.540 --> 00:21:53.739
the,
1043
00:21:53.819 --> 00:21:54.060
uh,
1044
00:21:54.170 --> 00:21:54.569
the sites,
1045
00:21:54.619 --> 00:21:56.130
the Cook Politicals and the,
1046
00:21:56.229 --> 00:21:59.219
the crystal the uh Sabato's crystal ball.
1047
00:21:59.459 --> 00:22:01.829
They're starting to move more races towards Democrats.
1048
00:22:02.130 --> 00:22:03.439
That's kind of part of it too.
1049
00:22:03.780 --> 00:22:03.939
Um,
1050
00:22:03.979 --> 00:22:06.449
you're seeing these prediction models start to move this as well,
1051
00:22:06.500 --> 00:22:07.800
and that's another big part of this.
1052
00:22:09.270 --> 00:22:11.270
We have the predictable midterm consensus.
1053
00:22:11.349 --> 00:22:12.750
It is a kind of a,
1054
00:22:12.829 --> 00:22:14.329
a consensus view of
1055
00:22:14.550 --> 00:22:18.219
all sorts of different measures from election models to prediction or to,
1056
00:22:18.229 --> 00:22:18.339
uh,
1057
00:22:18.349 --> 00:22:18.430
not,
1058
00:22:18.469 --> 00:22:19.229
not prediction models,
1059
00:22:19.300 --> 00:22:19.439
uh,
1060
00:22:19.469 --> 00:22:20.329
prediction data.
1061
00:22:20.709 --> 00:22:20.890
Uh,
1062
00:22:21.109 --> 00:22:23.089
we left that out intentionally so you can look at
1063
00:22:23.189 --> 00:22:23.459
the,
1064
00:22:23.550 --> 00:22:24.869
the other data against that.
1065
00:22:25.229 --> 00:22:25.430
Um,
1066
00:22:25.469 --> 00:22:26.180
but you've got,
1067
00:22:26.189 --> 00:22:26.630
uh,
1068
00:22:26.670 --> 00:22:27.339
election modeling,
1069
00:22:27.410 --> 00:22:27.890
you've got,
1070
00:22:27.910 --> 00:22:27.920
uh,
1071
00:22:27.939 --> 00:22:28.849
uh,
1072
00:22:28.859 --> 00:22:29.869
polling averages,
1073
00:22:30.030 --> 00:22:31.390
you've got fundamentals and,
1074
00:22:31.469 --> 00:22:33.459
and history and all the things,
1075
00:22:33.469 --> 00:22:34.109
fundraising
1076
00:22:34.310 --> 00:22:35.010
that make up
1077
00:22:35.349 --> 00:22:37.229
the picture of any given election.
1078
00:22:37.430 --> 00:22:38.729
And we put those all together in one place.
1079
00:22:40.339 --> 00:22:42.290
In there are prediction models,
1080
00:22:42.500 --> 00:22:43.900
and these prediction modelers,
1081
00:22:44.060 --> 00:22:46.300
really smart people who crunch this data for a living.
1082
00:22:47.219 --> 00:22:47.739
Uh,
1083
00:22:47.979 --> 00:22:49.540
there's a wide gap between them,
1084
00:22:49.619 --> 00:22:49.939
however,
1085
00:22:50.060 --> 00:22:53.060
some people say the House is a 99% chance for Democrats,
1086
00:22:53.140 --> 00:22:54.810
some people say it's 70%.
1087
00:22:55.140 --> 00:22:56.680
Some people say it's 65%.
1088
00:22:56.939 --> 00:22:57.780
And that's pretty low.
1089
00:22:57.859 --> 00:22:58.449
But generally speaking,
1090
00:22:58.500 --> 00:23:00.660
there's some people in the 70s all the way up to 99%.
1091
00:23:02.489 --> 00:23:03.010
We take that,
1092
00:23:03.130 --> 00:23:03.800
put it all together,
1093
00:23:03.810 --> 00:23:05.119
so you get one set number.
1094
00:23:05.199 --> 00:23:07.560
But one of the things that's happening with these prediction markets,
1095
00:23:07.729 --> 00:23:07.890
um,
1096
00:23:07.969 --> 00:23:08.290
excuse me,
1097
00:23:08.369 --> 00:23:08.550
the,
1098
00:23:08.560 --> 00:23:09.280
uh,
1099
00:23:09.290 --> 00:23:10.109
election models right now.
1100
00:23:10.920 --> 00:23:11.550
Is
1101
00:23:12.650 --> 00:23:12.989
They,
1102
00:23:13.130 --> 00:23:14.510
they all take into account.
1103
00:23:15.969 --> 00:23:16.869
History,
1104
00:23:17.530 --> 00:23:18.449
fundamentals.
1105
00:23:19.099 --> 00:23:19.579
Um,
1106
00:23:19.939 --> 00:23:20.199
everything
1107
00:23:20.369 --> 00:23:21.550
other than polling,
1108
00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:23.979
a bunch of different measures that and,
1109
00:23:24.089 --> 00:23:24.209
and,
1110
00:23:24.250 --> 00:23:25.680
and then also the polls.
1111
00:23:25.869 --> 00:23:26.979
So it takes both of those things out.
1112
00:23:27.060 --> 00:23:27.979
It's not just a polling average,
1113
00:23:28.060 --> 00:23:29.079
they're putting a lot more into it.
1114
00:23:30.069 --> 00:23:30.599
And
1115
00:23:30.880 --> 00:23:33.099
what's fascinating about that
1116
00:23:33.319 --> 00:23:33.910
is that
1117
00:23:34.280 --> 00:23:34.750
that
1118
00:23:34.920 --> 00:23:35.920
uh percentage,
1119
00:23:36.000 --> 00:23:36.780
the split,
1120
00:23:36.880 --> 00:23:37.430
when you're very,
1121
00:23:37.520 --> 00:23:39.079
very early before there's any polling at all,
1122
00:23:39.140 --> 00:23:40.189
it's all fundamentals,
1123
00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:40.819
right?
1124
00:23:41.270 --> 00:23:42.359
As more polling comes in,
1125
00:23:42.430 --> 00:23:43.310
it starts to move.
1126
00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:46.099
The balance of an election model moves
1127
00:23:46.479 --> 00:23:49.439
from focusing on fundamentals when you're far away from an election,
1128
00:23:49.800 --> 00:23:51.859
to focusing on polling more
1129
00:23:52.000 --> 00:23:52.719
as you get closer,
1130
00:23:52.839 --> 00:23:54.859
because the idea is the polling's more accurate
1131
00:23:54.859 --> 00:23:56.280
because the election's right around the corner.
1132
00:23:57.020 --> 00:23:58.239
That is happening right now
1133
00:23:58.579 --> 00:24:00.599
in these election models where
1134
00:24:01.060 --> 00:24:01.819
over time,
1135
00:24:01.930 --> 00:24:03.800
polling is a much bigger factor
1136
00:24:03.939 --> 00:24:05.510
than what you believe about the states.
1137
00:24:05.579 --> 00:24:07.060
If you go back a couple of months,
1138
00:24:07.339 --> 00:24:09.359
what you see is you might see the same polling,
1139
00:24:09.660 --> 00:24:10.219
but people are like,
1140
00:24:10.300 --> 00:24:10.770
well,
1141
00:24:11.020 --> 00:24:12.819
no one ever wins in Kansas as a Democrat,
1142
00:24:12.939 --> 00:24:13.420
so,
1143
00:24:13.540 --> 00:24:13.660
you know,
1144
00:24:14.020 --> 00:24:15.160
Republicans are heavily favored.
1145
00:24:15.540 --> 00:24:18.510
Even though the polling hasn't moved that much in Kansas,
1146
00:24:18.819 --> 00:24:20.780
what we are seeing now is
1147
00:24:21.020 --> 00:24:23.180
the election models moving toward.
1148
00:24:23.560 --> 00:24:24.109
Uh,
1149
00:24:24.170 --> 00:24:24.369
Democrats.
1150
00:24:24.439 --> 00:24:24.729
And if you,
1151
00:24:24.810 --> 00:24:25.239
if you say,
1152
00:24:25.300 --> 00:24:25.489
well,
1153
00:24:25.660 --> 00:24:25.760
well,
1154
00:24:25.839 --> 00:24:26.270
wait a minute,
1155
00:24:27.369 --> 00:24:27.880
so what?
1156
00:24:28.130 --> 00:24:28.449
Why?
1157
00:24:28.609 --> 00:24:30.270
Cause it's moving towards that polling.
1158
00:24:30.729 --> 00:24:31.150
And
1159
00:24:31.569 --> 00:24:32.520
the reason that is,
1160
00:24:32.530 --> 00:24:33.160
uh,
1161
00:24:33.170 --> 00:24:36.069
important to you if you're on these prediction markets
1162
00:24:36.410 --> 00:24:36.949
is
1163
00:24:37.290 --> 00:24:39.609
those are very influential to the markets.
1164
00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:42.530
The markets are looking to synthesize data.
1165
00:24:42.699 --> 00:24:44.910
Prediction markets are what you're trying to do.
1166
00:24:45.209 --> 00:24:45.569
What
1167
00:24:45.689 --> 00:24:47.630
the data is doing for you
1168
00:24:48.199 --> 00:24:50.770
is synthesizing everything into one place,
1169
00:24:50.849 --> 00:24:51.489
into one number,
1170
00:24:51.569 --> 00:24:52.609
so you can understand it better.
1171
00:24:52.689 --> 00:24:53.910
That's why these things are so great,
1172
00:24:53.969 --> 00:24:55.150
to help you understand
1173
00:24:55.290 --> 00:24:56.400
what's going on in the world,
1174
00:24:56.410 --> 00:24:58.650
because they're taking all available information and synthesizing,
1175
00:24:58.760 --> 00:24:59.680
crystallizing it
1176
00:24:59.810 --> 00:25:00.479
into one
1177
00:25:01.130 --> 00:25:02.790
available number that everybody can access,
1178
00:25:02.930 --> 00:25:03.209
by the way,
1179
00:25:03.329 --> 00:25:04.150
for free.
1180
00:25:04.650 --> 00:25:07.199
You get this information for free from Calshi.
1181
00:25:07.849 --> 00:25:08.099
Um,
1182
00:25:08.170 --> 00:25:11.000
and that is a great tool for you to understand the world better,
1183
00:25:11.219 --> 00:25:14.979
but that is part of the reason why these markets are moving toward
1184
00:25:14.979 --> 00:25:17.319
Democrats right now and why if you're in the Senate Fantasy League,
1185
00:25:17.420 --> 00:25:18.599
and you got a bunch of Democrats,
1186
00:25:18.650 --> 00:25:20.400
and you're at them and you're on your high horse.
1187
00:25:23.260 --> 00:25:24.880
That's what he's seeing right now.
1188
00:25:25.420 --> 00:25:28.130
It is partially because people believe the Democratic year is here,
1189
00:25:28.319 --> 00:25:28.479
right?
1190
00:25:28.550 --> 00:25:30.619
And that's probably true at some level.
1191
00:25:30.939 --> 00:25:33.459
It is partially because the polls are pretty good for Democrats,
1192
00:25:33.579 --> 00:25:35.459
but they're not moving necessarily toward them.
1193
00:25:36.130 --> 00:25:38.550
And it's partially because a bunch of money
1194
00:25:38.810 --> 00:25:40.569
is coming into these markets right now,
1195
00:25:40.890 --> 00:25:41.719
looking for favorites,
1196
00:25:41.849 --> 00:25:42.859
looking to take a couple,
1197
00:25:43.010 --> 00:25:43.170
you know,
1198
00:25:43.209 --> 00:25:43.449
10,
1199
00:25:43.560 --> 00:25:44.520
12%
1200
00:25:44.810 --> 00:25:46.410
on a two-week uh timeline.
1201
00:25:47.280 --> 00:25:48.400
And then also,
1202
00:25:48.410 --> 00:25:49.670
you have the situation where these
1203
00:25:50.449 --> 00:25:51.469
election modelers
1204
00:25:51.699 --> 00:25:51.920
are,
1205
00:25:51.969 --> 00:25:54.670
are starting to emphasize just straight polling,
1206
00:25:55.089 --> 00:25:56.530
cause you look at a place like Kansas,
1207
00:25:56.540 --> 00:25:56.689
where,
1208
00:25:56.780 --> 00:25:56.930
you know,
1209
00:25:57.010 --> 00:25:58.760
Hamilton might lead by 1 or 2 points,
1210
00:25:59.010 --> 00:25:59.250
and you say,
1211
00:25:59.329 --> 00:25:59.410
well,
1212
00:25:59.449 --> 00:26:00.290
he's leading the polling,
1213
00:26:00.420 --> 00:26:01.209
so he should be ahead.
1214
00:26:01.930 --> 00:26:05.969
Prediction markets and also election models take into account a lot more than that,
1215
00:26:06.140 --> 00:26:07.880
and they are moving things
1216
00:26:08.140 --> 00:26:10.060
toward those directions and holding back from
1217
00:26:10.060 --> 00:26:12.040
like giving Hamilton a lead in that race
1218
00:26:12.660 --> 00:26:13.459
because they're saying,
1219
00:26:13.579 --> 00:26:13.699
well,
1220
00:26:13.780 --> 00:26:14.140
wait a minute,
1221
00:26:14.260 --> 00:26:17.829
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
1222
00:26:18.300 --> 00:26:20.000
Should we be taking this seriously?
1223
00:26:21.000 --> 00:26:21.859
That's the game.
1224
00:26:22.079 --> 00:26:22.959
That's why I love these things.
1225
00:26:23.000 --> 00:26:24.469
It's figuring all of that out,
1226
00:26:25.040 --> 00:26:26.140
understanding all that data,
1227
00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:27.709
bringing it down in your own mind and saying,
1228
00:26:27.770 --> 00:26:27.890
well,
1229
00:26:27.959 --> 00:26:28.310
wait a minute,
1230
00:26:28.400 --> 00:26:30.060
where is the weakness in this market?
1231
00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:31.880
I think they're wrong in this state,
1232
00:26:31.959 --> 00:26:32.319
in this state,
1233
00:26:32.390 --> 00:26:32.790
in this state.
1234
00:26:32.839 --> 00:26:33.599
I think they're right here,
1235
00:26:33.680 --> 00:26:34.459
here and here.
1236
00:26:35.260 --> 00:26:35.930
Going in there,
1237
00:26:36.170 --> 00:26:37.069
finding the value
1238
00:26:37.369 --> 00:26:38.810
and profiting a little bit off of,
1239
00:26:38.900 --> 00:26:39.020
uh,
1240
00:26:39.089 --> 00:26:39.280
of,
1241
00:26:39.469 --> 00:26:40.400
of these politicians.
1242
00:26:40.489 --> 00:26:41.329
God knows they've been,
1243
00:26:41.489 --> 00:26:41.650
you know,
1244
00:26:41.810 --> 00:26:42.930
profiting off of you
1245
00:26:43.250 --> 00:26:44.310
your entire life.
1246
00:26:44.689 --> 00:26:46.489
It's about time you turn the tables a little bit on them,
1247
00:26:46.569 --> 00:26:47.069
don't you think?
1248
00:26:47.670 --> 00:26:48.300
All these tools,
1249
00:26:48.310 --> 00:26:48.520
by the way,
1250
00:26:48.589 --> 00:26:49.290
are available
1251
00:26:49.430 --> 00:26:50.010
for free
1252
00:26:50.310 --> 00:26:52.489
at predictableshow.com.
1253
00:26:52.589 --> 00:26:53.989
Become a free subscriber.
1254
00:26:54.229 --> 00:26:54.819
Just get on,
1255
00:26:55.030 --> 00:26:55.229
get on,
1256
00:26:55.430 --> 00:26:55.910
get on board.
1257
00:26:55.969 --> 00:26:57.040
It's a great community.
1258
00:26:57.229 --> 00:26:58.390
You get the free chat,
1259
00:26:58.540 --> 00:26:59.859
you get the free emails,
1260
00:27:00.040 --> 00:27:00.660
you get the,
1261
00:27:00.670 --> 00:27:00.900
uh,
1262
00:27:00.910 --> 00:27:03.770
all these tools that I'm talking about at predictableShow.com.
1263
00:27:03.989 --> 00:27:06.420
And then if you wanna upgrade and get all the individual Senate races,
1264
00:27:06.469 --> 00:27:07.319
you can do that well,
1265
00:27:07.469 --> 00:27:07.790
as well,
1266
00:27:07.869 --> 00:27:09.569
plus a free stream of the show.
1267
00:27:09.709 --> 00:27:11.069
I answer your questions all the time,
1268
00:27:11.140 --> 00:27:11.959
all sorts of cool stuff.
1269
00:27:12.310 --> 00:27:13.829
If you wanna be a premium subscriber.
1270
00:27:13.989 --> 00:27:14.739
I would highly
1271
00:27:15.400 --> 00:27:16.520
Highly encourage that.
1272
00:27:16.849 --> 00:27:18.750
That would be at predictableShow.com.
1273
00:27:19.130 --> 00:27:19.349
Uh,
1274
00:27:19.369 --> 00:27:19.880
just join up.
1275
00:27:19.930 --> 00:27:20.640
You can do it by the month,
1276
00:27:20.650 --> 00:27:21.369
you can do it by the year,
1277
00:27:21.410 --> 00:27:22.130
whatever you want.
1278
00:27:22.489 --> 00:27:24.750
And Senate Fantasy.com is free.
1279
00:27:25.239 --> 00:27:26.880
There's thousands of dollars on the line.
1280
00:27:26.959 --> 00:27:28.709
You can win $2500 for winning this thing.
1281
00:27:28.839 --> 00:27:31.589
And $2500 will go a long way to fund your prediction,
1282
00:27:31.900 --> 00:27:32.109
uh,
1283
00:27:32.119 --> 00:27:32.939
market account
1284
00:27:33.170 --> 00:27:35.219
and grow that even bigger on the show.
1285
00:27:35.479 --> 00:27:35.680
Uh,
1286
00:27:35.760 --> 00:27:36.420
you can also,
1287
00:27:36.479 --> 00:27:36.869
um,
1288
00:27:37.160 --> 00:27:37.219
you,
1289
00:27:37.280 --> 00:27:39.579
you can donate it to some worthy charity,
1290
00:27:39.890 --> 00:27:40.079
um,
1291
00:27:40.199 --> 00:27:41.550
or you can donate it to,
1292
00:27:41.640 --> 00:27:41.829
um,
1293
00:27:41.900 --> 00:27:43.520
your spouse who wants something nice for,
1294
00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:44.160
for Christmas.
1295
00:27:44.359 --> 00:27:45.209
Whatever you wanna do.
1296
00:27:45.900 --> 00:27:47.359
You can also just keep it and pocket it.
1297
00:27:47.819 --> 00:27:48.040
Frankly,
1298
00:27:48.109 --> 00:27:49.020
you can do whatever you want with the money,
1299
00:27:49.060 --> 00:27:51.119
but you can win it at Senatefantassy.com.
1300
00:27:51.300 --> 00:27:51.420
All right,
1301
00:27:51.500 --> 00:27:52.939
gotta take a break back in a second with more.
1302
00:28:08.910 --> 00:28:09.869
Spent a lot of time on the Senate,
1303
00:28:09.910 --> 00:28:10.189
and that's,
1304
00:28:10.300 --> 00:28:10.430
you know,
1305
00:28:10.510 --> 00:28:10.520
we,
1306
00:28:10.739 --> 00:28:11.609
it's that kind of
1307
00:28:11.829 --> 00:28:13.089
marquee thing.
1308
00:28:13.430 --> 00:28:14.670
It's with prediction markets though,
1309
00:28:14.750 --> 00:28:15.500
it's diff different,
1310
00:28:15.569 --> 00:28:15.699
right?
1311
00:28:15.750 --> 00:28:18.530
Like it's not just about what is the biggest news topic
1312
00:28:18.869 --> 00:28:20.550
or what's the thing that you're looking for.
1313
00:28:20.670 --> 00:28:21.050
Also,
1314
00:28:21.229 --> 00:28:23.430
there's a lot of races that are under the radar where you can
1315
00:28:23.430 --> 00:28:26.430
make more profit and so we wanna focus on those as well.
1316
00:28:26.550 --> 00:28:27.069
We got a lot to,
1317
00:28:27.199 --> 00:28:29.300
we got a lot on our plate here at predictable with Stu.
1318
00:28:29.709 --> 00:28:29.760
Uh,
1319
00:28:29.790 --> 00:28:32.979
that's why we also have predictableShow.com to get into a lot of that extra stuff,
1320
00:28:33.060 --> 00:28:33.280
but
1321
00:28:33.609 --> 00:28:34.550
I wanted to highlight something,
1322
00:28:34.609 --> 00:28:34.689
uh,
1323
00:28:34.729 --> 00:28:36.050
this is from Decision desk,
1324
00:28:36.130 --> 00:28:36.250
uh,
1325
00:28:36.290 --> 00:28:39.109
they did a really good job with election data which states
1326
00:28:39.400 --> 00:28:41.489
will split tickets for Senate and governor,
1327
00:28:41.569 --> 00:28:43.030
and this is an interesting thing because.
1328
00:28:43.920 --> 00:28:45.709
I am depending on this happening
1329
00:28:46.010 --> 00:28:46.699
multiple times.
1330
00:28:46.770 --> 00:28:47.369
I think it will,
1331
00:28:47.449 --> 00:28:47.849
and it's,
1332
00:28:47.900 --> 00:28:50.630
what's weird about that is it almost never occurs anymore.
1333
00:28:51.010 --> 00:28:51.479
What this means,
1334
00:28:51.489 --> 00:28:51.689
of course,
1335
00:28:51.729 --> 00:28:53.369
is when you're talking about a Senate and a governor,
1336
00:28:53.439 --> 00:28:54.689
are they from the same party or not?
1337
00:28:54.849 --> 00:28:58.319
Do you have one like a Democratic senator and a Republican governor or vice versa?
1338
00:28:58.719 --> 00:28:59.250
It's very,
1339
00:28:59.329 --> 00:29:01.709
very rare as we've grown into a more partisan era,
1340
00:29:01.969 --> 00:29:03.680
as people are more focused on politics,
1341
00:29:04.209 --> 00:29:05.829
there's just a lot less
1342
00:29:06.170 --> 00:29:08.829
of that type of activity going on
1343
00:29:09.130 --> 00:29:10.650
where you have those splits.
1344
00:29:11.199 --> 00:29:12.530
And just to show you a quick,
1345
00:29:12.540 --> 00:29:12.640
uh,
1346
00:29:12.650 --> 00:29:12.969
graph,
1347
00:29:13.010 --> 00:29:13.589
this is from,
1348
00:29:13.609 --> 00:29:14.199
uh,
1349
00:29:14.209 --> 00:29:14.869
DDHQ.
1350
00:29:15.569 --> 00:29:15.760
Um,
1351
00:29:15.810 --> 00:29:17.050
you'll notice the splits,
1352
00:29:17.170 --> 00:29:18.930
split tickets going back to 1990,
1353
00:29:19.000 --> 00:29:19.250
you see,
1354
00:29:19.359 --> 00:29:20.569
you see it more often.
1355
00:29:20.689 --> 00:29:20.930
It's,
1356
00:29:21.010 --> 00:29:22.319
it was never super common,
1357
00:29:22.369 --> 00:29:23.510
at least in recent history,
1358
00:29:23.930 --> 00:29:24.969
but there used to be 34,
1359
00:29:25.089 --> 00:29:26.109
5% of the vote
1360
00:29:26.449 --> 00:29:28.189
where you'd see a little bit of a split.
1361
00:29:28.849 --> 00:29:29.160
Now,
1362
00:29:29.170 --> 00:29:31.530
the projections here look like it could be the smallest gap,
1363
00:29:31.560 --> 00:29:33.229
at least since 2014.
1364
00:29:33.849 --> 00:29:33.979
Uh,
1365
00:29:34.050 --> 00:29:34.969
on the record,
1366
00:29:35.060 --> 00:29:35.469
and
1367
00:29:35.719 --> 00:29:35.969
so you,
1368
00:29:36.060 --> 00:29:36.260
you,
1369
00:29:36.420 --> 00:29:40.020
what you're expecting here is people to vote all Republican or all Democrat,
1370
00:29:40.339 --> 00:29:41.479
not splitting that ticket
1371
00:29:41.930 --> 00:29:42.660
with one or the other.
1372
00:29:42.750 --> 00:29:43.060
Now,
1373
00:29:43.180 --> 00:29:46.979
there are several races where there's a real possibility of a split ticket.
1374
00:29:47.060 --> 00:29:47.349
Here's,
1375
00:29:47.410 --> 00:29:47.589
uh,
1376
00:29:47.699 --> 00:29:47.890
the,
1377
00:29:48.040 --> 00:29:48.839
the breakdown.
1378
00:29:49.660 --> 00:29:53.239
The same party clearly favored in 18 of the 25 states,
1379
00:29:53.439 --> 00:29:53.930
um,
1380
00:29:54.219 --> 00:29:56.010
that are doing both races.
1381
00:29:56.339 --> 00:29:56.540
Uh,
1382
00:29:56.619 --> 00:29:59.020
and this is what this kind of looks like.
1383
00:29:59.140 --> 00:30:00.239
You see a gap,
1384
00:30:00.819 --> 00:30:01.319
uh,
1385
00:30:01.339 --> 00:30:01.510
between,
1386
00:30:01.609 --> 00:30:02.939
when you see those long gaps,
1387
00:30:02.979 --> 00:30:04.540
and I'll explain this for those on podcasts,
1388
00:30:04.619 --> 00:30:04.780
the,
1389
00:30:04.859 --> 00:30:07.739
the wide gaps between the two dots on this chart
1390
00:30:07.930 --> 00:30:09.650
indicates a most likely,
1391
00:30:09.660 --> 00:30:10.359
uh,
1392
00:30:10.650 --> 00:30:11.729
situation to split.
1393
00:30:11.939 --> 00:30:12.810
New Hampshire is the,
1394
00:30:12.939 --> 00:30:14.060
by far the biggest one.
1395
00:30:14.339 --> 00:30:16.500
We have a heavily favored Republican Governor,
1396
00:30:16.540 --> 00:30:17.219
Kelly Ayotte.
1397
00:30:17.670 --> 00:30:22.280
And a heavily favored Democratic senator in Chris Pappas over John Sununu.
1398
00:30:22.800 --> 00:30:22.920
Uh,
1399
00:30:23.000 --> 00:30:23.199
you know,
1400
00:30:23.310 --> 00:30:24.369
that might not happen.
1401
00:30:24.469 --> 00:30:24.920
Uh,
1402
00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:26.339
either one of those could potentially fail,
1403
00:30:26.410 --> 00:30:27.640
but that's the biggest split,
1404
00:30:27.800 --> 00:30:29.979
the most likely split ticket that we have.
1405
00:30:30.319 --> 00:30:31.000
Georgia,
1406
00:30:31.229 --> 00:30:31.439
uh,
1407
00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:32.390
likely as well,
1408
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:32.959
where you have,
1409
00:30:33.000 --> 00:30:33.280
um,
1410
00:30:33.390 --> 00:30:33.479
uh,
1411
00:30:33.560 --> 00:30:34.780
Ossoff and Jackson.
1412
00:30:35.390 --> 00:30:35.630
Uh,
1413
00:30:35.790 --> 00:30:35.910
the,
1414
00:30:35.989 --> 00:30:37.650
the favorites in those races,
1415
00:30:37.949 --> 00:30:38.270
um,
1416
00:30:38.510 --> 00:30:39.699
also have a heavy favorite,
1417
00:30:39.869 --> 00:30:40.140
really,
1418
00:30:40.150 --> 00:30:40.430
uh,
1419
00:30:40.510 --> 00:30:40.819
you know,
1420
00:30:40.969 --> 00:30:41.270
uh,
1421
00:30:41.430 --> 00:30:41.829
uh,
1422
00:30:42.030 --> 00:30:42.180
you know,
1423
00:30:42.260 --> 00:30:44.390
a fifty-fifty race basically for governor there.
1424
00:30:44.829 --> 00:30:45.229
Maine,
1425
00:30:45.349 --> 00:30:47.829
you have a heavy favorite in the governor's race,
1426
00:30:48.130 --> 00:30:50.170
a fifty-fifty race in the Senate.
1427
00:30:50.630 --> 00:30:50.750
Uh,
1428
00:30:50.849 --> 00:30:51.329
Iowa,
1429
00:30:51.430 --> 00:30:52.140
you have a,
1430
00:30:52.270 --> 00:30:52.420
uh,
1431
00:30:52.560 --> 00:30:55.670
a Democratic favorite in the governor's race,
1432
00:30:55.910 --> 00:30:57.969
and a fifty-fifty race in the Senate.
1433
00:30:58.390 --> 00:30:58.839
Um,
1434
00:30:59.310 --> 00:30:59.750
Alaska,
1435
00:30:59.910 --> 00:31:00.069
pretty,
1436
00:31:00.189 --> 00:31:01.949
they're pretty close to split both ways,
1437
00:31:02.030 --> 00:31:02.989
could really go either way.
1438
00:31:03.069 --> 00:31:04.609
Both races are very close there.
1439
00:31:05.030 --> 00:31:05.160
Uh,
1440
00:31:05.239 --> 00:31:06.459
Ohio is another one,
1441
00:31:06.839 --> 00:31:07.829
and then Texas,
1442
00:31:07.959 --> 00:31:07.979
uh,
1443
00:31:08.079 --> 00:31:08.390
you have,
1444
00:31:08.500 --> 00:31:08.550
uh,
1445
00:31:08.680 --> 00:31:09.339
Abbott is a,
1446
00:31:09.439 --> 00:31:09.790
uh,
1447
00:31:09.920 --> 00:31:10.760
moderate favorite,
1448
00:31:10.839 --> 00:31:12.050
72% favorite,
1449
00:31:12.369 --> 00:31:12.579
um,
1450
00:31:12.719 --> 00:31:13.020
where,
1451
00:31:13.160 --> 00:31:13.520
uh,
1452
00:31:13.680 --> 00:31:14.560
the underdog is,
1453
00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:14.849
uh,
1454
00:31:15.079 --> 00:31:15.640
Paxton.
1455
00:31:16.530 --> 00:31:17.089
And then in,
1456
00:31:17.130 --> 00:31:17.640
uh,
1457
00:31:17.969 --> 00:31:19.489
in Ohio is another interesting 1,
1458
00:31:19.569 --> 00:31:20.459
50%,
1459
00:31:20.810 --> 00:31:21.000
uh,
1460
00:31:21.060 --> 00:31:22.089
to 40%.
1461
00:31:22.199 --> 00:31:23.810
Ramaswamy is an underdog.
1462
00:31:24.010 --> 00:31:24.560
You got a,
1463
00:31:24.579 --> 00:31:25.569
a closer race,
1464
00:31:25.609 --> 00:31:25.810
uh,
1465
00:31:25.930 --> 00:31:26.089
in,
1466
00:31:26.290 --> 00:31:28.229
according to DDHQ when it comes to,
1467
00:31:28.579 --> 00:31:28.770
uh,
1468
00:31:28.969 --> 00:31:29.650
Sherrod Brown.
1469
00:31:30.050 --> 00:31:30.369
Um,
1470
00:31:30.489 --> 00:31:30.689
so,
1471
00:31:30.800 --> 00:31:31.079
uh,
1472
00:31:31.250 --> 00:31:33.119
that's the situation for those split tickets.
1473
00:31:33.199 --> 00:31:34.010
One more quick,
1474
00:31:34.020 --> 00:31:34.270
interesting,
1475
00:31:34.339 --> 00:31:34.430
uh,
1476
00:31:34.449 --> 00:31:35.709
chart they had on there.
1477
00:31:36.050 --> 00:31:36.550
If you
1478
00:31:36.790 --> 00:31:38.229
only knew the outcome of one race,
1479
00:31:38.530 --> 00:31:40.520
what is the likelihood of the Democrats winning the Senate?
1480
00:31:40.829 --> 00:31:40.849
Uh,
1481
00:31:40.969 --> 00:31:43.310
this is just a dumb exercise that I think is fun to look at.
1482
00:31:43.530 --> 00:31:43.829
But
1483
00:31:44.050 --> 00:31:44.209
if,
1484
00:31:44.290 --> 00:31:44.439
if,
1485
00:31:44.449 --> 00:31:44.599
like,
1486
00:31:44.609 --> 00:31:44.880
for example,
1487
00:31:44.959 --> 00:31:46.439
if the Democrats win South Carolina,
1488
00:31:46.520 --> 00:31:49.479
they have an 88% chance to win the Senate knowing no other results.
1489
00:31:49.770 --> 00:31:51.229
Kansas is their next best,
1490
00:31:51.439 --> 00:31:52.449
86%.
1491
00:31:52.859 --> 00:31:53.140
Um,
1492
00:31:53.209 --> 00:31:53.900
if they win Iowa,
1493
00:31:53.969 --> 00:31:56.199
they've got an 81% chance of winning the Senate.
1494
00:31:56.420 --> 00:31:57.459
If they win just Ohio,
1495
00:31:57.500 --> 00:31:58.530
it's the only race we know,
1496
00:31:58.619 --> 00:32:00.010
79% chance to win,
1497
00:32:00.219 --> 00:32:01.380
and it goes on down from there.
1498
00:32:01.489 --> 00:32:04.040
Kind of an interesting look at the Senate percentages.
1499
00:32:04.250 --> 00:32:04.500
Um,
1500
00:32:04.699 --> 00:32:05.380
let me look at the,
1501
00:32:05.459 --> 00:32:05.569
uh,
1502
00:32:05.699 --> 00:32:06.010
Calci
1503
00:32:06.469 --> 00:32:06.930
map here.
1504
00:32:07.010 --> 00:32:07.780
This is for the governors.
1505
00:32:07.859 --> 00:32:09.489
I wanna go through some of these because I think,
1506
00:32:09.699 --> 00:32:09.819
you know,
1507
00:32:09.859 --> 00:32:11.420
we have spent more time on the Senate.
1508
00:32:11.790 --> 00:32:11.979
Uh,
1509
00:32:12.069 --> 00:32:14.209
it's kind of the marquee thing plus you have control of the Senate,
1510
00:32:14.260 --> 00:32:15.060
which is at charge.
1511
00:32:15.130 --> 00:32:16.819
It doesn't really matter necessarily.
1512
00:32:16.890 --> 00:32:18.319
There's no voting block
1513
00:32:18.459 --> 00:32:19.339
of governors,
1514
00:32:19.619 --> 00:32:20.380
but it is important,
1515
00:32:20.579 --> 00:32:22.180
more important to you in your home state.
1516
00:32:22.489 --> 00:32:23.270
If you're thinking about,
1517
00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:23.810
oh gosh,
1518
00:32:23.890 --> 00:32:24.229
well,
1519
00:32:24.290 --> 00:32:24.609
um,
1520
00:32:24.849 --> 00:32:27.729
who am I really hoping for in my home state to be in the party that I want,
1521
00:32:28.050 --> 00:32:28.829
you want the governor.
1522
00:32:29.089 --> 00:32:32.109
The governor is more important to your day to day life
1523
00:32:32.569 --> 00:32:33.290
than a senator is.
1524
00:32:33.359 --> 00:32:34.810
A senator is one of 100 votes.
1525
00:32:35.000 --> 00:32:35.520
Still very,
1526
00:32:35.609 --> 00:32:36.589
very important,
1527
00:32:37.010 --> 00:32:39.329
but not as important to your everyday life,
1528
00:32:39.369 --> 00:32:39.969
in my opinion,
1529
00:32:40.010 --> 00:32:40.550
at least.
1530
00:32:40.770 --> 00:32:40.930
Um,
1531
00:32:40.979 --> 00:32:41.930
this is what that looks like.
1532
00:32:42.010 --> 00:32:43.489
Let's go through some of the races here.
1533
00:32:43.569 --> 00:32:45.910
There's a bunch of solid races we don't have to touch on.
1534
00:32:46.400 --> 00:32:46.640
Uh,
1535
00:32:46.719 --> 00:32:47.160
that are,
1536
00:32:47.270 --> 00:32:48.140
you know,
1537
00:32:48.349 --> 00:32:50.589
anywhere from 89% on up.
1538
00:32:50.839 --> 00:32:52.430
The closest one for the Republicans,
1539
00:32:52.439 --> 00:32:54.619
if you're looking for a solid state is Nebraska,
1540
00:32:54.949 --> 00:32:56.449
an 89% chance for,
1541
00:32:56.560 --> 00:32:56.800
uh,
1542
00:32:57.000 --> 00:32:58.819
Jim Pille to win there.
1543
00:32:59.150 --> 00:32:59.430
Uh,
1544
00:32:59.560 --> 00:33:02.280
nothing else really even remotely close to talk about.
1545
00:33:02.359 --> 00:33:03.619
On the solid side for,
1546
00:33:04.109 --> 00:33:04.589
um,
1547
00:33:05.160 --> 00:33:05.589
Democrats,
1548
00:33:05.880 --> 00:33:07.030
you have races like Colorado,
1549
00:33:07.119 --> 00:33:07.479
Delaware,
1550
00:33:07.599 --> 00:33:07.949
Georgia,
1551
00:33:08.040 --> 00:33:08.520
Illinois,
1552
00:33:08.680 --> 00:33:09.439
Massachusetts,
1553
00:33:09.550 --> 00:33:10.219
nothing really clear.
1554
00:33:10.439 --> 00:33:10.880
They do have,
1555
00:33:10.920 --> 00:33:11.180
um,
1556
00:33:11.439 --> 00:33:11.589
uh,
1557
00:33:11.640 --> 00:33:13.959
96% chance for Roy Cooper now to win.
1558
00:33:14.410 --> 00:33:14.810
Um,
1559
00:33:14.920 --> 00:33:15.260
which is,
1560
00:33:15.339 --> 00:33:15.589
uh,
1561
00:33:15.670 --> 00:33:16.469
uh,
1562
00:33:16.780 --> 00:33:16.859
oh,
1563
00:33:17.099 --> 00:33:17.180
wait,
1564
00:33:17.300 --> 00:33:17.380
wait,
1565
00:33:17.500 --> 00:33:17.520
a minute,
1566
00:33:17.709 --> 00:33:18.540
let me change it back.
1567
00:33:18.699 --> 00:33:19.099
Sorry about that,
1568
00:33:19.140 --> 00:33:20.099
I clicked on the wrong button.
1569
00:33:20.500 --> 00:33:21.000
Oops,
1570
00:33:21.459 --> 00:33:21.849
sorry about that.
1571
00:33:21.930 --> 00:33:22.339
Let me go back,
1572
00:33:22.410 --> 00:33:22.699
uh,
1573
00:33:22.780 --> 00:33:23.280
here we go.
1574
00:33:23.500 --> 00:33:23.890
Um,
1575
00:33:24.020 --> 00:33:24.219
OK,
1576
00:33:24.300 --> 00:33:25.979
so over on this,
1577
00:33:27.459 --> 00:33:27.849
sorry about this.
1578
00:33:27.900 --> 00:33:29.339
This is what live television is like,
1579
00:33:29.459 --> 00:33:29.900
guys,
1580
00:33:30.219 --> 00:33:31.939
people clicking around on phones and websites.
1581
00:33:32.260 --> 00:33:32.540
Um,
1582
00:33:32.619 --> 00:33:33.380
that's how it's always been.
1583
00:33:33.619 --> 00:33:36.020
Katie Hobbs is in the solid Democratic category.
1584
00:33:36.069 --> 00:33:38.199
That was one I know Republicans had high hopes for,
1585
00:33:38.459 --> 00:33:38.699
uh,
1586
00:33:39.069 --> 00:33:39.280
California,
1587
00:33:39.380 --> 00:33:40.040
Becerra,
1588
00:33:40.469 --> 00:33:40.579
uh,
1589
00:33:40.699 --> 00:33:41.290
Colorado,
1590
00:33:41.380 --> 00:33:41.780
Connecticut,
1591
00:33:41.900 --> 00:33:42.339
Hawaii.
1592
00:33:42.420 --> 00:33:42.540
Yeah,
1593
00:33:42.900 --> 00:33:44.000
you're gonna be surprised to hear,
1594
00:33:44.189 --> 00:33:44.329
uh,
1595
00:33:44.459 --> 00:33:45.810
Josh Green's gonna win in Hawaii,
1596
00:33:46.060 --> 00:33:46.540
Illinois,
1597
00:33:46.859 --> 00:33:47.380
Massachusetts.
1598
00:33:47.449 --> 00:33:47.699
Those are,
1599
00:33:47.780 --> 00:33:47.969
uh,
1600
00:33:48.099 --> 00:33:48.219
uh,
1601
00:33:48.380 --> 00:33:49.209
Maine is another one.
1602
00:33:49.469 --> 00:33:50.540
Michigan is a,
1603
00:33:50.619 --> 00:33:51.119
uh,
1604
00:33:51.339 --> 00:33:52.760
probably the closest race
1605
00:33:52.979 --> 00:33:53.199
over here.
1606
00:33:53.459 --> 00:33:57.060
Still a 92% chance for Benson to beat James,
1607
00:33:57.349 --> 00:33:57.540
uh,
1608
00:33:57.660 --> 00:33:58.060
in,
1609
00:33:58.140 --> 00:33:58.540
uh,
1610
00:33:58.660 --> 00:33:59.079
in,
1611
00:33:59.380 --> 00:33:59.890
um,
1612
00:34:00.140 --> 00:34:00.680
Michigan,
1613
00:34:00.819 --> 00:34:01.219
according.
1614
00:34:01.729 --> 00:34:02.890
To prediction markets.
1615
00:34:03.050 --> 00:34:04.550
So let's go to the closer races here.
1616
00:34:05.069 --> 00:34:05.170
Uh,
1617
00:34:05.239 --> 00:34:06.449
let's start with likely Democrat.
1618
00:34:06.530 --> 00:34:07.069
You've got
1619
00:34:07.290 --> 00:34:08.188
Alaska,
1620
00:34:08.469 --> 00:34:08.649
uh,
1621
00:34:08.728 --> 00:34:10.469
is an 80% Democratic state.
1622
00:34:10.969 --> 00:34:11.520
Iowa,
1623
00:34:11.679 --> 00:34:13.290
86% Democratic state.
1624
00:34:13.389 --> 00:34:13.570
Again,
1625
00:34:13.610 --> 00:34:15.188
it's kind of a shocking development
1626
00:34:15.610 --> 00:34:16.199
when you talk about,
1627
00:34:16.290 --> 00:34:16.449
uh,
1628
00:34:16.530 --> 00:34:16.780
um,
1629
00:34:16.889 --> 00:34:17.469
Iowa.
1630
00:34:17.760 --> 00:34:21.469
Oregon is probably the most perplexing race in the union
1631
00:34:22.010 --> 00:34:22.510
right now.
1632
00:34:22.889 --> 00:34:23.688
The polling is very,
1633
00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:24.260
very close.
1634
00:34:24.370 --> 00:34:27.000
People don't really like Tina Kodak in Oregon.
1635
00:34:27.129 --> 00:34:29.389
It's a Democratic year in a Democratic state.
1636
00:34:29.899 --> 00:34:31.949
But Drazen really has a chance in that race.
1637
00:34:32.030 --> 00:34:32.188
It's,
1638
00:34:32.399 --> 00:34:34.889
I have a Koech position that's relatively large.
1639
00:34:35.110 --> 00:34:36.179
I'm nervous about it.
1640
00:34:36.310 --> 00:34:37.449
I don't know that
1641
00:34:37.590 --> 00:34:39.409
I've trimmed it a little bit in the past week.
1642
00:34:39.590 --> 00:34:40.750
I'm nervous about that position,
1643
00:34:40.830 --> 00:34:42.020
but it is hanging out there.
1644
00:34:42.270 --> 00:34:43.830
And Wisconsin's another interesting one.
1645
00:34:43.909 --> 00:34:45.830
David Crowley at 80% to win.
1646
00:34:45.969 --> 00:34:47.610
I'm terrified of any poll
1647
00:34:47.870 --> 00:34:49.149
in Wisconsin in particular.
1648
00:34:49.228 --> 00:34:51.790
The polling's been notoriously horrible there,
1649
00:34:52.070 --> 00:34:52.188
uh,
1650
00:34:52.270 --> 00:34:54.969
but does have Crowley with a slight lead over Tom Tiffany.
1651
00:34:55.260 --> 00:34:57.439
Prediction markets think it's about an 80/20
1652
00:34:57.709 --> 00:34:58.149
race.
1653
00:34:58.889 --> 00:35:01.159
On the Republican likely side here,
1654
00:35:01.209 --> 00:35:02.370
you've got Florida.
1655
00:35:02.459 --> 00:35:03.810
David Jolly is the Democrat,
1656
00:35:03.929 --> 00:35:05.169
Byron Donald's the Republican.
1657
00:35:05.409 --> 00:35:07.439
Donald's up to about 80%.
1658
00:35:07.649 --> 00:35:10.229
I still like that race and like the value there
1659
00:35:10.370 --> 00:35:11.080
for Donald's.
1660
00:35:11.250 --> 00:35:12.280
Florida is one of those races.
1661
00:35:12.290 --> 00:35:13.310
I think Republicans
1662
00:35:13.419 --> 00:35:15.290
are going to draw a line around Florida and
1663
00:35:15.290 --> 00:35:17.229
hold most of the stuff that they have there.
1664
00:35:17.439 --> 00:35:18.010
We will see.
1665
00:35:18.169 --> 00:35:18.590
Kansas,
1666
00:35:19.080 --> 00:35:19.370
uh,
1667
00:35:19.520 --> 00:35:21.669
has Ty Masterson at 77% favor,
1668
00:35:21.729 --> 00:35:22.610
the Republican
1669
00:35:23.090 --> 00:35:23.969
ahead in Kansas.
1670
00:35:24.090 --> 00:35:24.770
Oklahoma,
1671
00:35:24.889 --> 00:35:25.750
Mike Maizey
1672
00:35:25.929 --> 00:35:27.229
at 91%.
1673
00:35:27.780 --> 00:35:28.129
And,
1674
00:35:28.149 --> 00:35:28.459
uh,
1675
00:35:28.620 --> 00:35:30.860
Greg Abbott in my own state here in Texas,
1676
00:35:30.939 --> 00:35:33.550
73% favorite over Gina Hinahoza,
1677
00:35:33.899 --> 00:35:34.020
uh,
1678
00:35:34.100 --> 00:35:35.600
who's running a lot of ads now.
1679
00:35:35.770 --> 00:35:38.439
Now it's gotten to the point where every single ad is one of these candidates
1680
00:35:38.620 --> 00:35:39.300
in Texas.
1681
00:35:39.540 --> 00:35:41.419
They're spending hundreds of millions of dollars.
1682
00:35:41.459 --> 00:35:42.919
It's amazing to watch
1683
00:35:43.100 --> 00:35:43.840
in action.
1684
00:35:44.060 --> 00:35:44.540
They do,
1685
00:35:45.100 --> 00:35:46.540
Democrats do have a chance to win.
1686
00:35:46.620 --> 00:35:48.120
I still think Abbott is the favorite
1687
00:35:48.340 --> 00:35:48.760
there.
1688
00:35:49.090 --> 00:35:49.219
Uh,
1689
00:35:49.300 --> 00:35:51.439
some lean Republican races right now,
1690
00:35:51.780 --> 00:35:51.899
uh,
1691
00:35:52.020 --> 00:35:53.580
Vermont is an interesting one.
1692
00:35:53.949 --> 00:35:56.229
And if you wanna go to the fringes of the blue wave,
1693
00:35:56.510 --> 00:35:58.110
this is an interesting one to investigate.
1694
00:35:58.270 --> 00:35:59.260
Phil Scott has been very,
1695
00:35:59.350 --> 00:35:59.790
very,
1696
00:35:59.870 --> 00:36:00.090
uh,
1697
00:36:00.139 --> 00:36:00.489
popular.
1698
00:36:00.590 --> 00:36:01.669
He is a Republican,
1699
00:36:01.750 --> 00:36:03.709
a Republican governor of Vermont,
1700
00:36:03.780 --> 00:36:04.340
of all places,
1701
00:36:04.389 --> 00:36:05.929
the Bernie Sanders state.
1702
00:36:06.629 --> 00:36:07.050
But
1703
00:36:07.310 --> 00:36:10.830
Scott has been a very popular moderate Republican governor.
1704
00:36:11.189 --> 00:36:11.310
Uh,
1705
00:36:11.389 --> 00:36:12.500
he's done by all accounts,
1706
00:36:12.510 --> 00:36:14.699
a very good job there for the state,
1707
00:36:14.949 --> 00:36:16.739
and Vermont voters tend to like him.
1708
00:36:16.949 --> 00:36:19.229
Amanda Janou is much more like Bernie Sanders.
1709
00:36:19.330 --> 00:36:19.689
Basically,
1710
00:36:20.010 --> 00:36:21.449
she was endorsed by Sanders.
1711
00:36:22.389 --> 00:36:23.000
The question is,
1712
00:36:23.080 --> 00:36:24.199
in this Democratic year,
1713
00:36:24.500 --> 00:36:24.840
Vermont,
1714
00:36:24.919 --> 00:36:27.600
who's already very open to a Bernie Sanders type candidate,
1715
00:36:27.800 --> 00:36:29.540
do they surprise us
1716
00:36:29.719 --> 00:36:30.909
and knock Phil Scott out?
1717
00:36:30.919 --> 00:36:32.000
I think there's a chance of it.
1718
00:36:32.239 --> 00:36:34.580
She's at 24% right now.
1719
00:36:34.959 --> 00:36:35.560
Um,
1720
00:36:35.760 --> 00:36:36.790
you also have,
1721
00:36:36.840 --> 00:36:38.780
over on the lean Democratic side,
1722
00:36:39.320 --> 00:36:41.280
there is Amy Acton going up against,
1723
00:36:41.370 --> 00:36:41.889
uh,
1724
00:36:42.000 --> 00:36:43.320
Vivek Ramaswamy.
1725
00:36:43.810 --> 00:36:45.649
That is an interesting race,
1726
00:36:45.689 --> 00:36:46.010
uh,
1727
00:36:46.129 --> 00:36:47.050
likely because,
1728
00:36:47.129 --> 00:36:47.300
uh,
1729
00:36:47.409 --> 00:36:49.729
of the back and forth between the candidates there.
1730
00:36:49.810 --> 00:36:52.409
I want to get into that maybe here in a second if I have time.
1731
00:36:52.600 --> 00:36:52.610
Yeah,
1732
00:36:52.770 --> 00:36:53.649
I'm pretty long on this break.
1733
00:36:53.729 --> 00:36:55.000
We might have to hold that till tomorrow.
1734
00:36:55.370 --> 00:36:55.449
Uh,
1735
00:36:55.570 --> 00:36:55.850
toss-off,
1736
00:36:55.929 --> 00:36:56.929
you got Georgia,
1737
00:36:57.169 --> 00:36:59.879
which is Keisha Lance Bottoms against Rick Jackson.
1738
00:37:00.110 --> 00:37:02.389
That's a 50/50 race basically exactly.
1739
00:37:02.770 --> 00:37:03.169
Um,
1740
00:37:03.250 --> 00:37:06.610
and then Nevada is a 58% Democratic favor,
1741
00:37:06.850 --> 00:37:08.719
Aaron Ford over Joe Lombardo.
1742
00:37:08.929 --> 00:37:10.669
That one could go either way for sure.
1743
00:37:11.169 --> 00:37:11.370
Very,
1744
00:37:11.479 --> 00:37:12.510
very close race
1745
00:37:12.689 --> 00:37:12.850
there.
1746
00:37:12.889 --> 00:37:14.790
I want to focus on Ohio for one more second there.
1747
00:37:15.129 --> 00:37:15.310
Um,
1748
00:37:15.360 --> 00:37:17.889
Ohio is Vivek Ramaswamy against Amy Acton.
1749
00:37:17.929 --> 00:37:18.729
Acton was,
1750
00:37:18.810 --> 00:37:19.060
uh,
1751
00:37:19.330 --> 00:37:19.489
you know,
1752
00:37:19.649 --> 00:37:20.209
had some issues.
1753
00:37:20.290 --> 00:37:21.610
She doesn't seem to be a great candidate.
1754
00:37:22.010 --> 00:37:22.139
Um,
1755
00:37:22.219 --> 00:37:23.100
Vivek Ramaswamy,
1756
00:37:23.179 --> 00:37:24.030
not very popular,
1757
00:37:24.139 --> 00:37:26.219
not very well liked for whatever reason in Ohio.
1758
00:37:26.260 --> 00:37:27.459
It's a very strange race.
1759
00:37:27.540 --> 00:37:27.800
Uh,
1760
00:37:28.370 --> 00:37:29.699
it seems like if Ohio had the choice,
1761
00:37:29.739 --> 00:37:30.300
they'd pick,
1762
00:37:30.310 --> 00:37:30.350
uh,
1763
00:37:30.500 --> 00:37:31.020
neither,
1764
00:37:31.219 --> 00:37:33.159
none of the above would probably be their pick.
1765
00:37:33.540 --> 00:37:33.860
Um,
1766
00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:35.120
the polling has been
1767
00:37:35.379 --> 00:37:36.379
relatively close here,
1768
00:37:36.419 --> 00:37:37.510
3 or 4 points
1769
00:37:37.860 --> 00:37:38.459
favoring,
1770
00:37:38.540 --> 00:37:38.820
um,
1771
00:37:38.939 --> 00:37:40.739
Acton in the most recent polls.
1772
00:37:40.810 --> 00:37:43.239
Ramaswamy had one pretty close recently.
1773
00:37:43.540 --> 00:37:45.219
They pulled out all the stops there though,
1774
00:37:45.300 --> 00:37:45.889
I will say,
1775
00:37:45.899 --> 00:37:49.580
maybe tomorrow we should feature the new ad by Ramaswamy featuring,
1776
00:37:49.739 --> 00:37:50.560
I kid you not.
1777
00:37:51.320 --> 00:37:52.590
Amy Acton's mom.
1778
00:37:53.689 --> 00:37:55.879
In an ad for her opponent,
1779
00:37:56.159 --> 00:37:57.469
Vivek Ramaswamy.
1780
00:37:57.679 --> 00:37:58.919
We'll get into that tomorrow and,
1781
00:37:58.929 --> 00:37:59.120
uh,
1782
00:37:59.129 --> 00:37:59.489
so much more.
1783
00:37:59.530 --> 00:38:00.050
I wanna take a break,
1784
00:38:00.169 --> 00:38:00.850
come back on the other side.
1785
00:38:00.889 --> 00:38:02.010
It's NBA kickoff,
1786
00:38:02.050 --> 00:38:02.120
uh,
1787
00:38:02.129 --> 00:38:03.010
tip-off tonight.
1788
00:38:03.290 --> 00:38:04.790
They wouldn't really kick off in the NBA,
1789
00:38:05.090 --> 00:38:05.209
uh,
1790
00:38:05.290 --> 00:38:06.959
tip-off NBA tonight.
1791
00:38:07.250 --> 00:38:08.850
I wanna tell you a little bit about that with a
1792
00:38:08.850 --> 00:38:11.310
couple of interesting positions we can look at in prediction markets there
1793
00:38:11.610 --> 00:38:12.570
and so much more to come.
1794
00:38:24.909 --> 00:38:26.750
LeBron James on his own new team.
1795
00:38:26.830 --> 00:38:30.649
He's gonna make a regular season debut as a Philadelphia seventy-Sixer.
1796
00:38:31.000 --> 00:38:31.189
Yes,
1797
00:38:31.350 --> 00:38:33.189
against the New York Knicks.
1798
00:38:33.270 --> 00:38:33.360
Uh,
1799
00:38:33.429 --> 00:38:34.189
that's tonight.
1800
00:38:34.419 --> 00:38:36.449
NBA season kicks off.
1801
00:38:37.060 --> 00:38:37.419
Uh,
1802
00:38:37.590 --> 00:38:38.030
there is a,
1803
00:38:38.110 --> 00:38:38.260
uh,
1804
00:38:38.459 --> 00:38:38.629
more of course,
1805
00:38:38.790 --> 00:38:40.310
there's markets on all of these games.
1806
00:38:40.389 --> 00:38:42.969
That's not typically how we use prediction markets here.
1807
00:38:43.100 --> 00:38:43.770
A lot of people,
1808
00:38:43.790 --> 00:38:43.870
uh,
1809
00:38:43.909 --> 00:38:44.419
do use them,
1810
00:38:44.510 --> 00:38:44.659
uh,
1811
00:38:44.739 --> 00:38:45.290
for that purpose.
1812
00:38:45.790 --> 00:38:45.979
Um,
1813
00:38:46.070 --> 00:38:47.870
we're kind of look more longer term.
1814
00:38:47.989 --> 00:38:48.110
Uh,
1815
00:38:48.310 --> 00:38:49.330
I do like sports,
1816
00:38:49.389 --> 00:38:49.949
um,
1817
00:38:50.330 --> 00:38:50.540
uh,
1818
00:38:50.629 --> 00:38:50.850
and,
1819
00:38:50.870 --> 00:38:51.060
uh,
1820
00:38:51.070 --> 00:38:52.110
I do like sports markets.
1821
00:38:52.189 --> 00:38:54.100
We find a lot of value in them and have done very,
1822
00:38:54.179 --> 00:38:55.399
very well in sports markets,
1823
00:38:55.510 --> 00:38:55.810
including
1824
00:38:56.110 --> 00:38:59.469
a big position that I won earlier this year of whether LeBron would retire or not.
1825
00:38:59.629 --> 00:39:00.219
Give me a break.
1826
00:39:00.270 --> 00:39:01.429
He's not retiring without a,
1827
00:39:01.550 --> 00:39:02.149
uh,
1828
00:39:02.750 --> 00:39:05.429
everybody focusing on him for an entire year of farewell.
1829
00:39:05.750 --> 00:39:07.439
You're not gonna just announce it on a Tuesday.
1830
00:39:07.590 --> 00:39:08.010
Anyway,
1831
00:39:08.179 --> 00:39:08.510
um,
1832
00:39:08.590 --> 00:39:10.739
this is what the market for that game looks like.
1833
00:39:10.899 --> 00:39:11.409
Sixers are,
1834
00:39:11.510 --> 00:39:11.669
you know,
1835
00:39:11.830 --> 00:39:13.129
the big buzz team.
1836
00:39:13.709 --> 00:39:13.820
Our,
1837
00:39:13.899 --> 00:39:14.659
our underdogs,
1838
00:39:14.709 --> 00:39:14.899
of course,
1839
00:39:14.979 --> 00:39:16.090
the defending champs,
1840
00:39:16.169 --> 00:39:16.280
uh,
1841
00:39:16.340 --> 00:39:18.340
39% chance for the Sixers to win,
1842
00:39:18.689 --> 00:39:18.810
uh,
1843
00:39:18.850 --> 00:39:20.679
61% for the Knicks.
1844
00:39:21.010 --> 00:39:21.300
Um,
1845
00:39:21.500 --> 00:39:21.949
I wanna,
1846
00:39:22.100 --> 00:39:22.219
though,
1847
00:39:22.300 --> 00:39:24.169
I like looking at the over-unders for the year,
1848
00:39:24.459 --> 00:39:24.570
uh,
1849
00:39:24.620 --> 00:39:26.080
when it comes to win totals,
1850
00:39:26.459 --> 00:39:28.939
and I like that because you can find value there.
1851
00:39:29.120 --> 00:39:32.280
And the way that prediction markets do this is different than if you've ever seen,
1852
00:39:32.389 --> 00:39:32.530
uh,
1853
00:39:32.659 --> 00:39:34.320
something kind of similar,
1854
00:39:34.659 --> 00:39:34.689
uh,
1855
00:39:34.699 --> 00:39:35.090
on a,
1856
00:39:35.129 --> 00:39:35.340
uh,
1857
00:39:35.449 --> 00:39:35.620
you know,
1858
00:39:35.739 --> 00:39:35.899
uh,
1859
00:39:36.100 --> 00:39:38.179
a more traditional sports gambling site.
1860
00:39:38.550 --> 00:39:38.820
Um,
1861
00:39:39.000 --> 00:39:41.439
they give you all sorts of different options here.
1862
00:39:41.560 --> 00:39:41.760
Um,
1863
00:39:41.840 --> 00:39:44.110
let me show you what this looks like if you are interested in this.
1864
00:39:44.159 --> 00:39:44.830
Maybe we should do an,
1865
00:39:44.919 --> 00:39:45.030
uh,
1866
00:39:45.120 --> 00:39:45.479
a draft.
1867
00:39:45.550 --> 00:39:48.060
We did a draft for over-under for NFL wins.
1868
00:39:48.389 --> 00:39:48.679
Um,
1869
00:39:48.760 --> 00:39:48.879
uh,
1870
00:39:48.959 --> 00:39:50.000
you guys seem to like that show.
1871
00:39:50.050 --> 00:39:51.719
Maybe we'll do one for the NBA as well.
1872
00:39:51.800 --> 00:39:52.050
But,
1873
00:39:52.360 --> 00:39:52.560
uh,
1874
00:39:52.639 --> 00:39:53.129
if you look here,
1875
00:39:53.260 --> 00:39:54.439
you're like the Wizards are the,
1876
00:39:54.639 --> 00:39:56.479
why would the Wizards be the number one on this?
1877
00:39:56.560 --> 00:39:56.800
Come on,
1878
00:39:56.989 --> 00:39:57.229
Calhi,
1879
00:39:57.360 --> 00:39:57.530
what are you,
1880
00:39:57.610 --> 00:39:58.850
you're putting the Wizards up there?
1881
00:39:59.120 --> 00:39:59.239
Uh,
1882
00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:00.500
the Wizards are 30,
1883
00:40:00.639 --> 00:40:00.909
like,
1884
00:40:01.000 --> 00:40:02.520
will they win 35 games or more?
1885
00:40:02.760 --> 00:40:02.860
Uh,
1886
00:40:02.919 --> 00:40:04.260
55% chance of that.
1887
00:40:05.060 --> 00:40:05.379
I'm,
1888
00:40:05.580 --> 00:40:06.959
I'm thinking under on these,
1889
00:40:07.139 --> 00:40:07.300
uh,
1890
00:40:07.419 --> 00:40:10.719
40 wins at a 36% chance of that.
1891
00:40:10.979 --> 00:40:11.739
The Sixers,
1892
00:40:12.020 --> 00:40:12.939
kind of that buzzy team,
1893
00:40:13.020 --> 00:40:13.699
50 wins,
1894
00:40:13.780 --> 00:40:13.929
uh,
1895
00:40:13.979 --> 00:40:15.820
48% chance of 50 plus wins.
1896
00:40:15.889 --> 00:40:16.020
I mean,
1897
00:40:16.060 --> 00:40:17.080
if you think about that team,
1898
00:40:17.500 --> 00:40:18.250
they added LeBron,
1899
00:40:18.340 --> 00:40:18.780
but again,
1900
00:40:18.860 --> 00:40:20.360
they already had a lot of talent.
1901
00:40:20.580 --> 00:40:21.120
You add,
1902
00:40:21.179 --> 00:40:21.649
uh,
1903
00:40:21.739 --> 00:40:22.300
uh,
1904
00:40:22.560 --> 00:40:23.340
Jalen Brown.
1905
00:40:23.709 --> 00:40:24.090
Um,
1906
00:40:24.229 --> 00:40:25.310
you have Edgecombe,
1907
00:40:25.469 --> 00:40:26.389
you have Maxie.
1908
00:40:26.469 --> 00:40:26.629
I mean,
1909
00:40:26.870 --> 00:40:27.219
it is,
1910
00:40:27.280 --> 00:40:27.379
uh,
1911
00:40:27.510 --> 00:40:27.709
of course,
1912
00:40:27.830 --> 00:40:28.969
in beat if he plays,
1913
00:40:29.469 --> 00:40:29.989
it's a heck of,
1914
00:40:30.270 --> 00:40:30.870
they really got a lot,
1915
00:40:30.979 --> 00:40:31.810
they got a great team,
1916
00:40:31.959 --> 00:40:32.270
um,
1917
00:40:32.389 --> 00:40:32.649
if
1918
00:40:32.870 --> 00:40:33.459
people are healthy,
1919
00:40:33.550 --> 00:40:35.090
but they are depending a lot
1920
00:40:35.300 --> 00:40:36.189
on older players.
1921
00:40:36.340 --> 00:40:40.030
One of the things we went against in the NFL was against the Rams having this,
1922
00:40:40.070 --> 00:40:40.350
uh,
1923
00:40:40.550 --> 00:40:41.389
dream team season,
1924
00:40:41.429 --> 00:40:42.699
and so far that's paid off very,
1925
00:40:42.770 --> 00:40:43.449
very well,
1926
00:40:43.840 --> 00:40:44.110
uh,
1927
00:40:44.270 --> 00:40:44.580
for,
1928
00:40:44.649 --> 00:40:45.040
uh,
1929
00:40:45.189 --> 00:40:46.850
for us in the prediction markets
1930
00:40:47.629 --> 00:40:48.129
because,
1931
00:40:48.229 --> 00:40:48.429
you know,
1932
00:40:48.590 --> 00:40:50.219
those teams don't usually do that well,
1933
00:40:50.229 --> 00:40:51.520
and especially when you're depending.
1934
00:40:51.959 --> 00:40:53.340
On a team
1935
00:40:53.560 --> 00:40:55.379
to drag a couple of,
1936
00:40:55.479 --> 00:40:55.840
uh,
1937
00:40:56.000 --> 00:40:56.399
older players,
1938
00:40:56.469 --> 00:40:56.560
like,
1939
00:40:56.600 --> 00:40:56.719
you know,
1940
00:40:56.830 --> 00:40:58.419
LeBron James is in his 40s,
1941
00:40:58.679 --> 00:41:00.919
and Joel Embiid's body is 80.
1942
00:41:01.340 --> 00:41:01.669
He's,
1943
00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:02.270
it is,
1944
00:41:02.280 --> 00:41:02.449
uh,
1945
00:41:02.520 --> 00:41:03.840
as fragile as a,
1946
00:41:03.899 --> 00:41:04.020
uh,
1947
00:41:04.120 --> 00:41:04.919
Biscoff cookie.
1948
00:41:05.479 --> 00:41:05.830
Uh,
1949
00:41:05.959 --> 00:41:06.320
so,
1950
00:41:06.439 --> 00:41:07.479
and if you've ever been on a,
1951
00:41:07.550 --> 00:41:09.790
a flight where they have Biscovoff cookies as the treat,
1952
00:41:09.840 --> 00:41:10.439
you know,
1953
00:41:10.639 --> 00:41:12.379
the second you take a bite into one of those,
1954
00:41:12.840 --> 00:41:13.620
everything crumbles
1955
00:41:13.840 --> 00:41:15.080
and you're covered in dust,
1956
00:41:15.239 --> 00:41:16.399
Biscoff cookie dust,
1957
00:41:16.560 --> 00:41:17.820
which is delicious dust,
1958
00:41:18.120 --> 00:41:18.909
but it's dust.
1959
00:41:19.340 --> 00:41:19.520
And the,
1960
00:41:19.719 --> 00:41:22.590
that's basically what the bones are of Joel and Bede at this point.
1961
00:41:22.919 --> 00:41:23.159
So,
1962
00:41:23.239 --> 00:41:23.590
um,
1963
00:41:23.719 --> 00:41:24.699
gonna be an interesting season.
1964
00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:26.239
Maybe on Thursday's show,
1965
00:41:26.320 --> 00:41:27.100
we'll do,
1966
00:41:27.159 --> 00:41:29.219
an NBA over-under draft
1967
00:41:29.439 --> 00:41:31.600
and look at this season and see if I can,
1968
00:41:31.669 --> 00:41:31.800
uh,
1969
00:41:31.909 --> 00:41:32.199
you know,
1970
00:41:32.310 --> 00:41:32.639
uh,
1971
00:41:32.840 --> 00:41:33.000
I mean,
1972
00:41:33.040 --> 00:41:34.550
Adam's doing well in the Senate Fantasy League,
1973
00:41:34.590 --> 00:41:35.580
but he'd do terribly,
1974
00:41:35.840 --> 00:41:36.040
uh,
1975
00:41:36.070 --> 00:41:37.169
in the NBA over under him.
1976
00:41:37.560 --> 00:41:38.760
Maybe we'll bring him into the draft too,
1977
00:41:38.840 --> 00:41:39.300
so we can,
1978
00:41:39.399 --> 00:41:40.479
we can beat up on,
1979
00:41:40.550 --> 00:41:41.020
on him.
1980
00:41:41.320 --> 00:41:41.469
Um,
1981
00:41:41.520 --> 00:41:41.679
OK,
1982
00:41:41.790 --> 00:41:42.320
we're gonna take a break,
1983
00:41:42.399 --> 00:41:42.919
back in a second.
1984
00:41:54.580 --> 00:41:54.739
All right,
1985
00:41:54.780 --> 00:41:56.260
it's time for candidate countdown.
1986
00:41:56.300 --> 00:41:58.340
We pick a race that we think there's some value in,
1987
00:41:58.379 --> 00:41:59.500
and this one is,
1988
00:41:59.699 --> 00:42:01.159
this is legitimately my favorite,
1989
00:42:01.439 --> 00:42:01.889
uh,
1990
00:42:02.179 --> 00:42:03.060
one in the entire,
1991
00:42:03.139 --> 00:42:04.360
I think the entire,
1992
00:42:04.500 --> 00:42:05.179
uh,
1993
00:42:05.419 --> 00:42:06.780
prediction market space right now.
1994
00:42:07.070 --> 00:42:08.899
Our candidate countdown candidate of the day,
1995
00:42:09.010 --> 00:42:11.760
14 days until the election is.
1996
00:42:12.610 --> 00:42:13.090
Obviously,
1997
00:42:13.209 --> 00:42:14.709
Bernie Sanders,
1998
00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:15.590
independent
1999
00:42:16.110 --> 00:42:16.649
from Vermont.
2000
00:42:16.729 --> 00:42:18.129
A nice picture of Bernie there.
2001
00:42:18.239 --> 00:42:18.560
Looks very,
2002
00:42:18.649 --> 00:42:19.709
very pleasant as usual.
2003
00:42:20.050 --> 00:42:20.169
Now,
2004
00:42:20.290 --> 00:42:21.800
Bernie isn't running for anything,
2005
00:42:22.010 --> 00:42:23.949
so it makes it hard to make him candidate of the day,
2006
00:42:24.010 --> 00:42:26.010
but there's a specific market that I absolutely like.
2007
00:42:26.090 --> 00:42:27.909
And let me highlight it with this New York Times
2008
00:42:28.169 --> 00:42:28.739
article from
2009
00:42:28.870 --> 00:42:29.139
Today,
2010
00:42:29.469 --> 00:42:31.550
drawn by Nixon's surprise surge,
2011
00:42:31.709 --> 00:42:33.969
Sanders makes a rare Florida trip.
2012
00:42:34.310 --> 00:42:34.580
Now,
2013
00:42:34.709 --> 00:42:34.830
uh,
2014
00:42:34.949 --> 00:42:36.750
Nixon is Ashley Moody's opponent.
2015
00:42:36.949 --> 00:42:37.250
Um,
2016
00:42:37.510 --> 00:42:38.530
at no point
2017
00:42:38.780 --> 00:42:42.429
in the article do they identify any piece of evidence that would,
2018
00:42:42.469 --> 00:42:45.179
I would tell you that there is a surge for Nixon.
2019
00:42:45.590 --> 00:42:47.090
I don't know what they're talking about.
2020
00:42:47.310 --> 00:42:48.129
There's no
2021
00:42:48.290 --> 00:42:49.620
surge for Nixon.
2022
00:42:49.949 --> 00:42:53.350
Moody leads in the polls and has led in the polls pretty consistently.
2023
00:42:53.679 --> 00:42:53.909
Uh,
2024
00:42:53.989 --> 00:42:55.899
there's been a couple of polls where it's been close,
2025
00:42:56.280 --> 00:42:57.229
but there's no big surge,
2026
00:42:57.310 --> 00:42:59.600
there's no big momentum going towards Nixon.
2027
00:42:59.879 --> 00:43:00.120
Um,
2028
00:43:00.239 --> 00:43:00.580
but
2029
00:43:00.840 --> 00:43:01.159
I guess,
2030
00:43:01.239 --> 00:43:01.389
uh,
2031
00:43:01.479 --> 00:43:02.959
you have to accept the premise to,
2032
00:43:03.040 --> 00:43:03.159
uh,
2033
00:43:03.239 --> 00:43:04.659
subscribe to The New York Times.
2034
00:43:05.080 --> 00:43:05.199
Uh,
2035
00:43:05.280 --> 00:43:06.469
so Democrats are surging everywhere,
2036
00:43:06.479 --> 00:43:07.360
just so you're aware.
2037
00:43:07.399 --> 00:43:07.800
This is what,
2038
00:43:07.879 --> 00:43:07.989
uh,
2039
00:43:08.050 --> 00:43:09.500
this is the market though that I love,
2040
00:43:09.919 --> 00:43:10.719
which is she did,
2041
00:43:10.850 --> 00:43:12.149
he did endorse Cynthia Nixon,
2042
00:43:12.370 --> 00:43:13.199
which I will say Cynthia.
2043
00:43:13.280 --> 00:43:13.739
What's her name?
2044
00:43:13.840 --> 00:43:15.120
I can never remember her actual name.
2045
00:43:15.280 --> 00:43:15.979
It's Nixon.
2046
00:43:16.290 --> 00:43:16.669
Uh,
2047
00:43:16.800 --> 00:43:17.219
what's her name?
2048
00:43:17.399 --> 00:43:17.629
Ms.
2049
00:43:17.719 --> 00:43:18.300
Nixon,
2050
00:43:18.520 --> 00:43:19.760
is what they say in the New York Times story.
2051
00:43:19.840 --> 00:43:20.149
Angie,
2052
00:43:20.219 --> 00:43:20.479
thank you.
2053
00:43:20.679 --> 00:43:21.360
Angie Nixon.
2054
00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:22.419
Um,
2055
00:43:22.570 --> 00:43:25.239
who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms?
2056
00:43:25.290 --> 00:43:25.830
I
2057
00:43:26.370 --> 00:43:27.129
love this market.
2058
00:43:27.209 --> 00:43:28.790
I can't get enough of this market.
2059
00:43:29.169 --> 00:43:30.830
And it is premised on the idea
2060
00:43:31.530 --> 00:43:32.030
that
2061
00:43:32.330 --> 00:43:33.409
Bernie Sanders.
2062
00:43:34.080 --> 00:43:34.560
He is a,
2063
00:43:34.679 --> 00:43:37.020
is a cog in the Democratic wheel here.
2064
00:43:37.949 --> 00:43:39.120
He wants his candidates to win.
2065
00:43:39.239 --> 00:43:39.560
First of all,
2066
00:43:39.679 --> 00:43:42.580
Bernie Sanders is not very giving with his endorsements.
2067
00:43:42.830 --> 00:43:43.260
Um,
2068
00:43:43.679 --> 00:43:47.159
he is a guy who actually will only really go after and,
2069
00:43:47.199 --> 00:43:48.300
and endorse people
2070
00:43:48.760 --> 00:43:51.149
with a few exceptions in races he really,
2071
00:43:51.219 --> 00:43:52.520
really cares about with candidates that are
2072
00:43:52.520 --> 00:43:54.659
very closely aligned with his version of
2073
00:43:54.879 --> 00:43:56.419
being a Democrat or a socialist.
2074
00:43:56.639 --> 00:43:56.879
Um,
2075
00:43:56.969 --> 00:43:57.820
Cynthia Nixon,
2076
00:43:57.889 --> 00:43:58.340
or
2077
00:43:58.719 --> 00:43:59.760
Cynthia Nixon also fails,
2078
00:43:59.810 --> 00:43:59.919
but,
2079
00:43:59.959 --> 00:44:00.110
uh,
2080
00:44:00.120 --> 00:44:01.429
also Angie Nixon in Florida is,
2081
00:44:01.479 --> 00:44:02.550
is in that bucket.
2082
00:44:03.189 --> 00:44:04.610
But there's a bunch of candidates that aren't.
2083
00:44:04.949 --> 00:44:05.189
In fact,
2084
00:44:05.270 --> 00:44:08.830
the entire premise of their candidacies is that they are not socialists.
2085
00:44:09.030 --> 00:44:09.310
Now,
2086
00:44:10.179 --> 00:44:10.679
I gotta tell you,
2087
00:44:10.750 --> 00:44:13.629
I don't see any real room between these people and socialists.
2088
00:44:13.669 --> 00:44:14.429
So that's my opinion.
2089
00:44:14.469 --> 00:44:15.810
I'm just telling you that upfront.
2090
00:44:16.389 --> 00:44:16.729
But
2091
00:44:16.909 --> 00:44:17.929
the whole pitch
2092
00:44:18.389 --> 00:44:19.110
to voters.
2093
00:44:19.729 --> 00:44:19.739
About
2094
00:44:20.500 --> 00:44:21.560
James Tallarico,
2095
00:44:21.850 --> 00:44:23.239
is he's a moderate.
2096
00:44:23.449 --> 00:44:24.889
He's almost a Republican.
2097
00:44:25.310 --> 00:44:25.320
Uh,
2098
00:44:25.489 --> 00:44:26.600
Mary Peltola,
2099
00:44:26.810 --> 00:44:27.489
oh my gosh,
2100
00:44:27.689 --> 00:44:28.570
so Republican.
2101
00:44:29.209 --> 00:44:30.729
Dan Osborne in Nebraska,
2102
00:44:31.010 --> 00:44:31.280
he's,
2103
00:44:31.370 --> 00:44:33.469
he's so not a Democrat
2104
00:44:33.600 --> 00:44:34.969
and so not a socialist,
2105
00:44:35.090 --> 00:44:36.189
he's an independent.
2106
00:44:37.560 --> 00:44:38.629
All these people,
2107
00:44:38.800 --> 00:44:43.419
the whole pitch is to basically fool normal independent voters,
2108
00:44:43.560 --> 00:44:43.750
uh,
2109
00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:45.360
that these people are not Democrats because
2110
00:44:45.360 --> 00:44:47.000
they wouldn't normally vote for Democrats.
2111
00:44:47.239 --> 00:44:49.159
They're trying to fool them into voting
2112
00:44:49.159 --> 00:44:51.709
for these independent candidates and moderate candidates.
2113
00:44:52.040 --> 00:44:52.340
So
2114
00:44:52.760 --> 00:44:56.219
an endorsement from Bernie Sanders would be the worst possible thing for them.
2115
00:44:56.899 --> 00:44:57.929
So why would he do that?
2116
00:44:58.100 --> 00:44:59.770
So I have no on tons of these people.
2117
00:45:00.060 --> 00:45:00.659
Tallarico,
2118
00:45:00.780 --> 00:45:01.250
by the way,
2119
00:45:01.659 --> 00:45:02.020
here,
2120
00:45:02.139 --> 00:45:04.860
a rally with Bernie Sanders in the same state.
2121
00:45:04.939 --> 00:45:06.090
What did Tallarico do?
2122
00:45:06.500 --> 00:45:09.280
Tallarico skips the Bernie Sanders rally in Texas.
2123
00:45:09.820 --> 00:45:09.979
They're,
2124
00:45:10.100 --> 00:45:11.620
they're campaigning for him.
2125
00:45:11.699 --> 00:45:13.120
He didn't even go to the rally.
2126
00:45:13.500 --> 00:45:14.219
Bernie Sanders,
2127
00:45:14.699 --> 00:45:15.600
one of the biggest,
2128
00:45:15.770 --> 00:45:16.010
you know,
2129
00:45:16.260 --> 00:45:17.500
figures in the political space.
2130
00:45:17.580 --> 00:45:17.860
So.
2131
00:45:18.320 --> 00:45:18.469
Uh,
2132
00:45:18.560 --> 00:45:18.870
every,
2133
00:45:19.080 --> 00:45:20.679
every piece of these types of candidates,
2134
00:45:20.800 --> 00:45:21.439
Peltola,
2135
00:45:21.560 --> 00:45:21.750
uh,
2136
00:45:21.949 --> 00:45:23.239
a lot of them are up in the 90s now.
2137
00:45:23.320 --> 00:45:24.540
I've been buying them all the way up.
2138
00:45:24.879 --> 00:45:25.000
Uh,
2139
00:45:25.040 --> 00:45:25.919
but I've mentioned this,
2140
00:45:25.959 --> 00:45:26.270
uh,
2141
00:45:26.280 --> 00:45:26.350
before,
2142
00:45:26.399 --> 00:45:29.080
it's one of my favorite markets on all of the prediction market space
2143
00:45:29.080 --> 00:45:31.229
right now because I just don't see why there would be any reason.
2144
00:45:31.520 --> 00:45:34.459
There's always risk because it's just one guy and he can just blurt something out.
2145
00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:35.719
So there's a little risk there.
2146
00:45:35.959 --> 00:45:36.479
But generally speaking,
2147
00:45:36.645 --> 00:45:37.405
I feel pretty good
2148
00:45:37.564 --> 00:45:39.334
in that market that Bernie Sanders will not
2149
00:45:39.445 --> 00:45:40.864
endorse any moderates
2150
00:45:41.004 --> 00:45:41.864
in this campaign.
2151
00:45:42.044 --> 00:45:42.284
OK,
2152
00:45:42.405 --> 00:45:43.885
that's all the time that we have for today.
2153
00:45:44.004 --> 00:45:47.844
Join us at predictableShow.com and get your Senate Fantasy League team in.
2154
00:45:48.084 --> 00:45:49.485
It's at senatefantassy.com.
2155
00:45:49.564 --> 00:45:52.024
It's free and you can win thousands of dollars in prizes.
2156
00:45:52.324 --> 00:45:54.165
Senate Fantasy.com.
2157
00:45:54.405 --> 00:45:55.044
We'll see you tomorrow.