Surely Our Midterms Reality Can’t Be THIS Insane!

WEBVTT
0
00:00:00.360 --> 00:00:04.000
I have one very important question for you regarding next week's midterms.
1
00:00:04.159 --> 00:00:04.760
Uh,
2
00:00:04.880 --> 00:00:05.989
what the hell is going on?
3
00:00:06.199 --> 00:00:06.320
Like,
4
00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:08.279
is this blue wave thing actually happening?
5
00:00:08.350 --> 00:00:09.270
Is that what we're dealing with,
6
00:00:09.279 --> 00:00:10.920
or is this all fake news?
7
00:00:10.979 --> 00:00:12.000
I don't understand
8
00:00:12.319 --> 00:00:12.960
what the deal is.
9
00:00:13.039 --> 00:00:16.180
We're gonna try to reckon with the insanity of our current reality.
10
00:00:16.559 --> 00:00:18.350
And I also look back at the history of this because,
11
00:00:18.420 --> 00:00:18.430
uh,
12
00:00:18.520 --> 00:00:18.719
you know,
13
00:00:18.959 --> 00:00:19.620
is,
14
00:00:19.920 --> 00:00:20.590
is this realistic?
15
00:00:20.639 --> 00:00:20.790
Is,
16
00:00:20.840 --> 00:00:23.940
is what the Democrats are trying to do right now even possible?
17
00:00:24.440 --> 00:00:27.940
We'll get into that and so much more coming up on today's episode of Predictable
18
00:00:28.059 --> 00:00:28.479
with Stu.
19
00:00:43.419 --> 00:00:44.939
Welcome to Predictable with Stu,
20
00:00:44.979 --> 00:00:46.500
where we look at the news and elections
21
00:00:46.500 --> 00:00:49.479
and everything through the lens of prediction markets.
22
00:00:49.979 --> 00:00:50.939
Can we make you some money?
23
00:00:51.220 --> 00:00:51.819
I hope so.
24
00:00:51.900 --> 00:00:53.380
We've done pretty well so far this year.
25
00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:54.009
I want you to,
26
00:00:54.060 --> 00:00:54.259
uh,
27
00:00:54.380 --> 00:00:54.709
by the way,
28
00:00:54.860 --> 00:00:56.000
join us on YouTube,
29
00:00:56.099 --> 00:00:57.860
youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
30
00:00:58.259 --> 00:00:58.819
Something like 60.
31
00:00:58.979 --> 00:01:02.159
or 70% of the people who watch the show on a day to day basis
32
00:01:02.430 --> 00:01:03.810
aren't subscribers to the feed.
33
00:01:04.110 --> 00:01:04.309
And,
34
00:01:04.388 --> 00:01:04.589
you know,
35
00:01:04.709 --> 00:01:05.750
if you think about that,
36
00:01:06.029 --> 00:01:06.110
uh,
37
00:01:06.190 --> 00:01:06.349
I,
38
00:01:06.510 --> 00:01:06.629
it,
39
00:01:06.790 --> 00:01:07.029
it's,
40
00:01:07.309 --> 00:01:10.809
you should really change that because the best thing that you can do
41
00:01:11.029 --> 00:01:14.730
on a day to day basis is the types of things that are good for me.
42
00:01:15.330 --> 00:01:15.480
Uh,
43
00:01:15.489 --> 00:01:15.639
really,
44
00:01:15.690 --> 00:01:17.639
that should be the goal for you on a day to day
45
00:01:17.639 --> 00:01:20.269
basis is do things to help some stupid show that you watch
46
00:01:20.529 --> 00:01:20.769
on,
47
00:01:20.809 --> 00:01:21.000
uh,
48
00:01:21.050 --> 00:01:21.680
on TV.
49
00:01:21.930 --> 00:01:22.129
Uh,
50
00:01:22.250 --> 00:01:23.050
so please do that.
51
00:01:23.250 --> 00:01:23.319
Uh,
52
00:01:23.370 --> 00:01:23.769
if you don't take,
53
00:01:23.860 --> 00:01:24.809
if you wouldn't mind taking a moment,
54
00:01:24.849 --> 00:01:25.000
uh,
55
00:01:25.010 --> 00:01:25.400
subscribing,
56
00:01:25.489 --> 00:01:26.389
hitting the bell for notifications,
57
00:01:26.489 --> 00:01:27.309
we'd appreciate it.
58
00:01:27.529 --> 00:01:27.889
Um,
59
00:01:27.970 --> 00:01:31.519
we do have a big live stream happening on election night.
60
00:01:31.809 --> 00:01:32.569
We will be going for hours.
61
00:01:32.720 --> 00:01:34.919
And hours and hours and hours and hours until my voice gives out.
62
00:01:35.319 --> 00:01:35.739
So,
63
00:01:35.760 --> 00:01:36.150
uh,
64
00:01:36.160 --> 00:01:37.639
check us out on election night.
65
00:01:37.699 --> 00:01:38.760
You're gonna like that coverage.
66
00:01:38.839 --> 00:01:40.239
I do believe so.
67
00:01:40.589 --> 00:01:40.879
Um,
68
00:01:41.040 --> 00:01:43.040
we do have also Stu's picks.
69
00:01:43.120 --> 00:01:44.720
These are all my prediction market positions.
70
00:01:44.790 --> 00:01:46.540
They're up on predictableShow.com.
71
00:01:46.680 --> 00:01:48.330
People are really trying to get those right now,
72
00:01:48.400 --> 00:01:48.830
obviously,
73
00:01:48.839 --> 00:01:50.150
cause we're really close to the election.
74
00:01:50.559 --> 00:01:52.190
They're available for premium subscribers.
75
00:01:52.400 --> 00:01:53.940
We're gonna be updating them as we go,
76
00:01:54.069 --> 00:01:54.349
as I,
77
00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:55.660
whenever I add a new thing,
78
00:01:55.879 --> 00:01:58.360
I'm gonna try to get it updated right away so you have every,
79
00:01:58.440 --> 00:01:59.480
all the best information.
80
00:01:59.910 --> 00:02:00.050
Uh,
81
00:02:00.110 --> 00:02:01.120
to go off of
82
00:02:01.360 --> 00:02:01.910
if you would like.
83
00:02:01.989 --> 00:02:04.290
And one other thing I wanna tell you about is Senate Fantasy.com.
84
00:02:04.430 --> 00:02:05.470
You still have a chance to get in on this.
85
00:02:05.510 --> 00:02:07.250
We have over 500 teams now,
86
00:02:07.739 --> 00:02:07.930
uh,
87
00:02:07.989 --> 00:02:08.410
on,
88
00:02:08.500 --> 00:02:08.630
uh,
89
00:02:08.770 --> 00:02:10.130
Senate Fantasy.com.
90
00:02:10.508 --> 00:02:12.830
It's basically like a fantasy league for your Senate picks.
91
00:02:12.979 --> 00:02:13.339
So,
92
00:02:13.470 --> 00:02:13.630
you know,
93
00:02:13.740 --> 00:02:13.830
look,
94
00:02:13.869 --> 00:02:14.729
it's free to join.
95
00:02:14.949 --> 00:02:15.509
It's a lot of fun.
96
00:02:15.589 --> 00:02:16.770
It takes you a few minutes to get in,
97
00:02:16.779 --> 00:02:19.029
and you can win up to $2500.
98
00:02:19.089 --> 00:02:20.580
This is the leaderboard right now,
99
00:02:20.839 --> 00:02:20.990
uh,
100
00:02:21.110 --> 00:02:21.979
as we stand,
101
00:02:22.029 --> 00:02:22.229
uh,
102
00:02:22.389 --> 00:02:24.309
bring back the Redskins is number one.
103
00:02:24.529 --> 00:02:25.750
You can now like the team names too.
104
00:02:25.830 --> 00:02:27.429
There's a little heart next to it to like the team names,
105
00:02:27.470 --> 00:02:27.990
which is fun.
106
00:02:28.389 --> 00:02:28.750
Um,
107
00:02:28.869 --> 00:02:29.190
and the,
108
00:02:29.199 --> 00:02:30.250
uh,
109
00:02:30.270 --> 00:02:31.320
bring back the Riskins leading.
110
00:02:31.470 --> 00:02:31.630
Actually,
111
00:02:31.710 --> 00:02:32.770
go to the very last one,
112
00:02:33.110 --> 00:02:33.309
Adam,
113
00:02:33.350 --> 00:02:33.610
right now.
114
00:02:33.750 --> 00:02:33.880
Go to,
115
00:02:33.949 --> 00:02:35.490
go to the very last place
116
00:02:35.759 --> 00:02:38.009
all the way at the very bottom of this thing.
117
00:02:38.229 --> 00:02:40.339
If you keep scrolling and scrolling and scrolling,
118
00:02:40.389 --> 00:02:41.070
you'll pass my,
119
00:02:41.149 --> 00:02:41.509
you passed,
120
00:02:41.520 --> 00:02:42.630
passed mine a long time ago.
121
00:02:42.710 --> 00:02:43.429
I'm up near the top,
122
00:02:43.509 --> 00:02:44.009
of course.
123
00:02:44.229 --> 00:02:44.350
Uh,
124
00:02:44.429 --> 00:02:46.020
but if you keep going down towards the bottom,
125
00:02:46.080 --> 00:02:46.509
I'm actually,
126
00:02:46.630 --> 00:02:47.229
I'm doing all right.
127
00:02:47.309 --> 00:02:48.059
I'm doing all right.
128
00:02:48.350 --> 00:02:48.550
Right now,
129
00:02:48.589 --> 00:02:48.779
you guys,
130
00:02:48.839 --> 00:02:49.679
some of you guys are beating me.
131
00:02:49.869 --> 00:02:50.589
But if you go to the very,
132
00:02:50.710 --> 00:02:51.529
very end,
133
00:02:51.990 --> 00:02:52.179
uh,
134
00:02:52.190 --> 00:02:55.690
very last place you see a little red or yellow box there.
135
00:02:56.470 --> 00:02:59.110
Last place still wins $100.
136
00:02:59.190 --> 00:02:59.309
Yes,
137
00:02:59.389 --> 00:03:01.130
we've decided to implement this.
138
00:03:01.539 --> 00:03:03.309
If you finish in dead last,
139
00:03:03.389 --> 00:03:04.889
you will win $100.
140
00:03:05.509 --> 00:03:07.889
Just because I think it would be hard to finish in last place.
141
00:03:08.070 --> 00:03:09.940
There's 563 teams now.
142
00:03:10.029 --> 00:03:11.009
This is growing fast.
143
00:03:11.220 --> 00:03:11.389
Uh,
144
00:03:11.470 --> 00:03:12.570
we would love for you to get in
145
00:03:12.690 --> 00:03:13.750
Senate Fantasy.com,
146
00:03:13.910 --> 00:03:14.449
free to join,
147
00:03:14.919 --> 00:03:15.710
win thousands of dollars.
148
00:03:15.779 --> 00:03:16.070
OK.
149
00:03:18.559 --> 00:03:19.419
6 days
150
00:03:19.910 --> 00:03:20.759
until the midterm elections.
151
00:03:20.910 --> 00:03:22.460
6 freaking days
152
00:03:22.750 --> 00:03:23.339
until we're there.
153
00:03:23.500 --> 00:03:24.160
Until every,
154
00:03:24.399 --> 00:03:25.479
the votes are getting counted.
155
00:03:25.559 --> 00:03:27.679
We're ranting and raving on election night.
156
00:03:28.080 --> 00:03:28.839
Votes are coming in.
157
00:03:28.919 --> 00:03:29.960
We're trading furiously.
158
00:03:30.029 --> 00:03:31.330
We'll be doing that with you,
159
00:03:31.559 --> 00:03:31.679
uh,
160
00:03:31.720 --> 00:03:33.000
as we go through the night.
161
00:03:33.160 --> 00:03:33.979
I'll be trading
162
00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:36.559
live on the air with you because,
163
00:03:36.669 --> 00:03:36.789
look,
164
00:03:36.839 --> 00:03:38.070
my job is to host the show.
165
00:03:38.360 --> 00:03:40.440
My job is to talk to you about prediction markets,
166
00:03:40.520 --> 00:03:41.539
but it's also to trade.
167
00:03:41.710 --> 00:03:41.789
Uh,
168
00:03:41.880 --> 00:03:42.000
you know,
169
00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:43.520
it's something I do all the time.
170
00:03:43.889 --> 00:03:44.110
Um,
171
00:03:44.190 --> 00:03:46.860
so I'll be doing that with you and we'll be looking for those opportunities.
172
00:03:46.949 --> 00:03:48.710
I'm in the middle of building a great tool for you,
173
00:03:48.789 --> 00:03:48.869
uh,
174
00:03:48.949 --> 00:03:49.850
for election night,
175
00:03:50.070 --> 00:03:50.229
uh,
176
00:03:50.300 --> 00:03:51.229
and it's coming along really well,
177
00:03:51.350 --> 00:03:52.770
so I think you'll get a lot of use out of that.
178
00:03:52.789 --> 00:03:53.750
If you're a premium subscriber,
179
00:03:53.830 --> 00:03:55.910
you're gonna wanna subscribe to PredictableShow.com.
180
00:03:55.979 --> 00:03:57.110
There's so many great tools
181
00:03:57.270 --> 00:03:59.070
if you're gonna be actually trading these election,
182
00:03:59.190 --> 00:03:59.729
uh,
183
00:04:00.070 --> 00:04:00.770
election results
184
00:04:00.949 --> 00:04:01.750
on election night.
185
00:04:02.520 --> 00:04:03.559
I saw a,
186
00:04:03.639 --> 00:04:03.750
you know,
187
00:04:03.800 --> 00:04:04.839
I do a bunch of reading in the morning,
188
00:04:04.880 --> 00:04:05.199
of course,
189
00:04:05.279 --> 00:04:06.789
you're going through all this stuff and the prep,
190
00:04:06.830 --> 00:04:08.539
and I saw this and it caught my eye,
191
00:04:08.550 --> 00:04:09.210
and I
192
00:04:09.979 --> 00:04:10.970
It just made me just think,
193
00:04:11.020 --> 00:04:12.259
I need to step back for a second.
194
00:04:12.339 --> 00:04:13.380
I need to think about this.
195
00:04:13.460 --> 00:04:15.070
I need to think about what we're looking at here,
196
00:04:15.160 --> 00:04:16.200
because what we're looking at here
197
00:04:16.709 --> 00:04:18.200
is gonna be historic
198
00:04:18.428 --> 00:04:20.500
if the numbers we're getting from the media,
199
00:04:20.660 --> 00:04:22.010
if the numbers we're getting from pollsters,
200
00:04:22.059 --> 00:04:23.440
if we're the numbers we're getting
201
00:04:23.739 --> 00:04:25.850
from uh election modelers are right.
202
00:04:26.100 --> 00:04:27.119
This is going to be a,
203
00:04:27.179 --> 00:04:28.970
an unbelievable election.
204
00:04:29.299 --> 00:04:31.399
We're in unbelievable territory right now,
205
00:04:31.739 --> 00:04:32.920
if what they're telling us is true.
206
00:04:33.470 --> 00:04:33.980
Is it?
207
00:04:34.109 --> 00:04:34.549
I don't know.
208
00:04:34.700 --> 00:04:35.029
Here's the,
209
00:04:35.109 --> 00:04:35.380
uh,
210
00:04:35.470 --> 00:04:35.910
here's what it says.
211
00:04:36.019 --> 00:04:37.570
The 7 races that will decide
212
00:04:38.100 --> 00:04:38.709
control of the Senate.
213
00:04:38.750 --> 00:04:40.850
This is from the Washington Post,
214
00:04:41.390 --> 00:04:43.190
and there's a couple of interesting charts in there.
215
00:04:43.269 --> 00:04:43.390
First,
216
00:04:43.470 --> 00:04:44.890
I just wanna show you this one for
217
00:04:45.029 --> 00:04:45.750
where people are,
218
00:04:45.829 --> 00:04:46.070
where the,
219
00:04:46.140 --> 00:04:47.339
where the money is being spent.
220
00:04:47.739 --> 00:04:48.059
This is,
221
00:04:48.109 --> 00:04:48.339
uh,
222
00:04:48.429 --> 00:04:49.049
in Ohio,
223
00:04:49.140 --> 00:04:51.410
we're talking almost $500 million.
224
00:04:51.910 --> 00:04:53.510
It's been spent in Ohio.
225
00:04:53.839 --> 00:04:54.160
Um,
226
00:04:54.279 --> 00:04:56.250
a little bit more by Republicans there.
227
00:04:56.489 --> 00:04:57.519
Same thing in Texas.
228
00:04:57.600 --> 00:04:58.549
When you factor in,
229
00:04:58.559 --> 00:04:58.910
uh,
230
00:04:58.920 --> 00:04:59.920
super PAC money and,
231
00:04:59.959 --> 00:05:00.829
and all that stuff,
232
00:05:01.170 --> 00:05:01.519
Texas,
233
00:05:01.640 --> 00:05:02.549
now more money spent.
234
00:05:02.600 --> 00:05:02.869
Now,
235
00:05:03.079 --> 00:05:05.950
there's an asterisk next to that because when you spend money with the super PAC,
236
00:05:05.959 --> 00:05:07.359
you get worse ad rates.
237
00:05:07.440 --> 00:05:09.059
So you actually don't get as many ads
238
00:05:09.200 --> 00:05:10.359
even if you're spending more money.
239
00:05:10.440 --> 00:05:11.100
That's just a
240
00:05:11.220 --> 00:05:12.119
technicality.
241
00:05:12.399 --> 00:05:13.119
Michigan is next,
242
00:05:13.200 --> 00:05:14.160
Iowa and Maine,
243
00:05:14.359 --> 00:05:16.910
and then less money is spent in Alaska and Kansas,
244
00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:17.899
not because they're not important.
245
00:05:18.350 --> 00:05:21.390
But because they're just media markets are totally a different story.
246
00:05:21.619 --> 00:05:21.660
And so,
247
00:05:21.750 --> 00:05:21.869
you know,
248
00:05:21.910 --> 00:05:22.790
I don't even know what would you,
249
00:05:22.950 --> 00:05:24.459
how would you even advertise in Alaska.
250
00:05:24.510 --> 00:05:25.130
I have no idea.
251
00:05:25.209 --> 00:05:26.269
I don't even know how that would work.
252
00:05:26.540 --> 00:05:27.690
It'd be very difficult to cover
253
00:05:27.989 --> 00:05:28.429
a giant,
254
00:05:28.440 --> 00:05:30.519
giant state like that with a bunch of small media markets,
255
00:05:30.829 --> 00:05:31.109
um.
256
00:05:32.790 --> 00:05:33.190
But this is,
257
00:05:33.239 --> 00:05:33.869
that's not the poll,
258
00:05:33.950 --> 00:05:37.070
that's not the chart that caught my attention in this article.
259
00:05:37.940 --> 00:05:38.579
Is this one.
260
00:05:39.769 --> 00:05:40.820
Polling shows
261
00:05:41.059 --> 00:05:44.029
major shift in Senate battlegrounds since 2024.
262
00:05:44.209 --> 00:05:44.279
Now,
263
00:05:44.329 --> 00:05:45.489
we're not going back to,
264
00:05:45.559 --> 00:05:45.859
you know,
265
00:05:46.049 --> 00:05:46.970
2016,
266
00:05:47.089 --> 00:05:47.769
Trump's first election.
267
00:05:47.850 --> 00:05:48.829
We're not going back to
268
00:05:49.049 --> 00:05:50.239
2020.
269
00:05:50.529 --> 00:05:51.649
We're going back to 2024.
270
00:05:51.730 --> 00:05:52.709
That's only two years ago.
271
00:05:53.970 --> 00:05:54.799
So two years ago,
272
00:05:55.459 --> 00:05:59.359
we look at the difference here between Donald Trump's margin in these states
273
00:05:59.769 --> 00:06:02.899
and uh the pre-election polling average of
274
00:06:02.899 --> 00:06:05.019
high quality polls since September 15th,
275
00:06:05.140 --> 00:06:06.019
so recent polling.
276
00:06:06.720 --> 00:06:08.619
I'm gonna start from the bottom here for a reason,
277
00:06:08.630 --> 00:06:10.440
because Maine is the one at the bottom here.
278
00:06:10.750 --> 00:06:11.220
Um,
279
00:06:11.600 --> 00:06:11.959
the,
280
00:06:12.000 --> 00:06:12.690
uh,
281
00:06:12.799 --> 00:06:15.640
and this has actually been an improvement for Republicans.
282
00:06:16.079 --> 00:06:16.190
Uh,
283
00:06:16.279 --> 00:06:18.209
Donald Trump lost in 2024
284
00:06:18.369 --> 00:06:19.269
by 7 points,
285
00:06:19.399 --> 00:06:22.660
and the polling right now shows Susan Collins behind by 2 points.
286
00:06:23.079 --> 00:06:24.079
So very close race,
287
00:06:24.179 --> 00:06:25.980
a toss-up race for sure,
288
00:06:26.320 --> 00:06:29.119
but a close race that currently favors Democrats slightly,
289
00:06:29.200 --> 00:06:31.200
but this has actually been an improvement for Republicans.
290
00:06:31.279 --> 00:06:31.510
They're,
291
00:06:31.720 --> 00:06:33.940
they're one good story on this board so far.
292
00:06:34.989 --> 00:06:38.010
Michigan was a very small win for Donald Trump,
293
00:06:38.059 --> 00:06:39.239
a 1 point victory,
294
00:06:39.529 --> 00:06:42.079
and now shows in recent polling a 4-point lead
295
00:06:42.369 --> 00:06:43.779
for Abdul El Sayed,
296
00:06:43.899 --> 00:06:45.890
even though he's a very weak candidate,
297
00:06:46.179 --> 00:06:46.279
uh,
298
00:06:46.339 --> 00:06:48.630
he's still leading in this environment
299
00:06:48.859 --> 00:06:49.859
by 4 points.
300
00:06:49.980 --> 00:06:50.260
So,
301
00:06:50.459 --> 00:06:51.459
those are the two close races,
302
00:06:51.540 --> 00:06:54.299
but I wanna focus on the other 5 that are on the board right now.
303
00:06:54.500 --> 00:06:56.040
5 races on the board.
304
00:06:56.420 --> 00:06:57.480
Each one of these
305
00:06:57.899 --> 00:07:01.940
are races that Donald Trump or states that Donald Trump won by double digits.
306
00:07:02.980 --> 00:07:04.559
That we're currently being told
307
00:07:05.420 --> 00:07:06.619
Democrats are gonna win this time.
308
00:07:06.899 --> 00:07:07.700
5 states,
309
00:07:07.890 --> 00:07:08.679
Ohio.
310
00:07:09.140 --> 00:07:10.609
Donald Trump won by 11.
311
00:07:10.820 --> 00:07:12.040
We're now told that
312
00:07:12.260 --> 00:07:15.239
John Husted is behind by 4 points in that race.
313
00:07:15.540 --> 00:07:16.399
In Iowa,
314
00:07:16.730 --> 00:07:18.299
Donald Trump won by 13.
315
00:07:18.540 --> 00:07:21.459
We're now told that Ashley Hinson is behind by 2.
316
00:07:21.589 --> 00:07:22.000
Now,
317
00:07:22.220 --> 00:07:22.579
frankly,
318
00:07:22.700 --> 00:07:22.779
uh,
319
00:07:22.869 --> 00:07:23.019
you know,
320
00:07:23.100 --> 00:07:24.179
this is their polling average,
321
00:07:24.290 --> 00:07:24.579
so I,
322
00:07:24.660 --> 00:07:25.380
I would say that I,
323
00:07:25.459 --> 00:07:27.160
I think Ashley Hinson's slightly up
324
00:07:27.380 --> 00:07:28.160
in this race.
325
00:07:28.380 --> 00:07:28.579
Um,
326
00:07:28.640 --> 00:07:29.059
that's what,
327
00:07:29.140 --> 00:07:29.290
uh,
328
00:07:29.299 --> 00:07:30.019
prediction markets say,
329
00:07:30.100 --> 00:07:30.519
that's what,
330
00:07:30.559 --> 00:07:31.040
um,
331
00:07:31.640 --> 00:07:34.320
I believe the PMC says the predictable midterm consensus.
332
00:07:34.920 --> 00:07:35.619
Kansas,
333
00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:38.380
a 16 point win by by Donald Trump.
334
00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:40.850
We're now told that Adam Hamilton leads
335
00:07:41.040 --> 00:07:42.899
Roger Marshall in that race by 1 point.
336
00:07:43.399 --> 00:07:43.989
In Texas,
337
00:07:44.070 --> 00:07:44.480
of course,
338
00:07:44.600 --> 00:07:45.160
famously,
339
00:07:45.309 --> 00:07:46.899
Donald Trump won by 14
340
00:07:47.200 --> 00:07:48.559
in 2024,
341
00:07:48.679 --> 00:07:49.839
just 2 years later,
342
00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:52.260
Ken Paxton trails by 3 in this polling average.
343
00:07:53.049 --> 00:07:53.970
And then finally,
344
00:07:54.049 --> 00:07:54.279
uh,
345
00:07:54.290 --> 00:07:54.769
Alaska,
346
00:07:54.890 --> 00:07:57.440
where Donald Trump won by 13 points,
347
00:07:57.649 --> 00:07:58.450
just two years later,
348
00:07:58.489 --> 00:07:59.910
we're told Mary Peltola
349
00:08:00.170 --> 00:08:01.899
leads Dan Sullivan by 5.
350
00:08:02.329 --> 00:08:04.429
So look at the polling movement on those five races,
351
00:08:04.760 --> 00:08:05.609
15 points.
352
00:08:06.549 --> 00:08:08.190
16 or 15 points again,
353
00:08:08.429 --> 00:08:09.549
17 points,
354
00:08:09.829 --> 00:08:10.910
17 points,
355
00:08:11.190 --> 00:08:11.730
and
356
00:08:11.940 --> 00:08:13.209
18 points.
357
00:08:13.420 --> 00:08:14.529
All of that movement
358
00:08:15.070 --> 00:08:16.239
in 2 years.
359
00:08:18.750 --> 00:08:19.890
Is that even possible?
360
00:08:20.959 --> 00:08:24.730
Are we really gonna see 5 races move by 1516,
361
00:08:24.809 --> 00:08:26.489
1718 points,
362
00:08:26.570 --> 00:08:27.070
really?
363
00:08:29.040 --> 00:08:29.679
Now you could say,
364
00:08:29.799 --> 00:08:29.910
like,
365
00:08:29.920 --> 00:08:30.079
and,
366
00:08:30.160 --> 00:08:32.308
and this is what happens all the time when I talk to people about this,
367
00:08:32.359 --> 00:08:32.590
oh,
368
00:08:32.669 --> 00:08:33.590
you can't believe the polls,
369
00:08:33.799 --> 00:08:34.000
oh,
370
00:08:34.039 --> 00:08:35.419
you can't believe the prediction markets,
371
00:08:35.510 --> 00:08:35.640
ah,
372
00:08:35.719 --> 00:08:36.390
you can't believe this,
373
00:08:36.440 --> 00:08:37.080
you can't believe that.
374
00:08:37.919 --> 00:08:38.340
And I,
375
00:08:38.570 --> 00:08:40.429
I don't take any of those things at their surface.
376
00:08:41.438 --> 00:08:45.028
I do believe that prediction markets are the best predictor that we have,
377
00:08:45.239 --> 00:08:47.258
the best tool that we have in this toolbox.
378
00:08:47.679 --> 00:08:48.379
But of course,
379
00:08:48.518 --> 00:08:49.229
I,
380
00:08:49.439 --> 00:08:50.239
they're not perfect,
381
00:08:50.309 --> 00:08:52.838
and I don't want them to be perfect because if they are perfect,
382
00:08:52.919 --> 00:08:54.379
I can't make any money off of them.
383
00:08:54.598 --> 00:08:56.239
I'm looking for places where they're wrong.
384
00:08:56.318 --> 00:08:57.078
In some of these races,
385
00:08:57.119 --> 00:08:58.138
they will be wrong.
386
00:08:58.489 --> 00:08:59.398
As I've mentioned before,
387
00:08:59.518 --> 00:09:00.588
I have a position on,
388
00:09:00.758 --> 00:09:01.039
for example,
389
00:09:01.158 --> 00:09:02.059
Ashley Hinson,
390
00:09:02.348 --> 00:09:02.708
uh,
391
00:09:02.838 --> 00:09:03.158
which is,
392
00:09:03.309 --> 00:09:03.439
you know,
393
00:09:03.518 --> 00:09:03.679
this,
394
00:09:03.758 --> 00:09:05.499
this particular graphic telling us that that is wrong,
395
00:09:05.559 --> 00:09:05.859
but
396
00:09:06.729 --> 00:09:08.070
Is this actually happening?
397
00:09:08.400 --> 00:09:11.789
Or is what we're seeing now from all of these different data points,
398
00:09:12.289 --> 00:09:13.090
even possible?
399
00:09:14.809 --> 00:09:14.929
I,
400
00:09:15.010 --> 00:09:15.799
I will tell you,
401
00:09:16.049 --> 00:09:18.049
the left is in.
402
00:09:19.549 --> 00:09:19.929
Having
403
00:09:20.070 --> 00:09:20.780
two different feelings.
404
00:09:20.989 --> 00:09:23.710
One is like crack-induced euphoria.
405
00:09:24.030 --> 00:09:24.909
I've heard Dave Landau,
406
00:09:25.030 --> 00:09:25.630
the guy that I,
407
00:09:25.669 --> 00:09:25.940
uh,
408
00:09:25.989 --> 00:09:27.380
I do a show with on Blaze TV,
409
00:09:28.140 --> 00:09:29.030
Stu and Dave do America.
410
00:09:29.109 --> 00:09:29.869
He's a comedian,
411
00:09:30.190 --> 00:09:30.890
went through a very,
412
00:09:30.950 --> 00:09:32.250
uh,
413
00:09:32.260 --> 00:09:33.070
tough time,
414
00:09:33.109 --> 00:09:33.260
uh,
415
00:09:33.309 --> 00:09:33.750
as a,
416
00:09:33.830 --> 00:09:34.510
as a young,
417
00:09:34.630 --> 00:09:35.409
younger guy,
418
00:09:35.750 --> 00:09:35.950
um,
419
00:09:36.059 --> 00:09:38.809
and had a problem with drugs and alcohol,
420
00:09:39.340 --> 00:09:40.849
and has talked before,
421
00:09:40.869 --> 00:09:43.150
and I've heard him tell the story of the time he,
422
00:09:43.440 --> 00:09:43.630
uh,
423
00:09:43.830 --> 00:09:44.750
smoked a joint,
424
00:09:44.869 --> 00:09:45.020
uh,
425
00:09:45.070 --> 00:09:47.679
that he did not know was laced with crack.
426
00:09:48.109 --> 00:09:48.469
Now,
427
00:09:49.330 --> 00:09:51.330
I don't know the euphoria that crack brings,
428
00:09:51.409 --> 00:09:52.359
but he described it,
429
00:09:52.369 --> 00:09:54.520
and I've heard Hunter Biden describe it as well.
430
00:09:54.760 --> 00:09:55.369
Apparently,
431
00:09:55.450 --> 00:09:55.750
uh,
432
00:09:55.979 --> 00:09:56.929
quite the product,
433
00:09:57.030 --> 00:09:57.200
uh,
434
00:09:57.369 --> 00:09:57.530
you know,
435
00:09:57.570 --> 00:09:58.960
it has some downsides,
436
00:09:58.969 --> 00:09:59.890
you may know of,
437
00:09:59.969 --> 00:10:00.289
but
438
00:10:00.570 --> 00:10:03.429
apparently really makes you uh just
439
00:10:03.570 --> 00:10:06.109
over the moon for a very short period of time.
440
00:10:06.770 --> 00:10:07.989
Very euphoric feeling.
441
00:10:08.530 --> 00:10:10.809
That's essentially where all Democrats are.
442
00:10:11.119 --> 00:10:14.520
The people who are on the left have been spending months trying to convince
443
00:10:14.520 --> 00:10:16.820
you that this is going to be the biggest blowout of all time.
444
00:10:17.080 --> 00:10:18.510
Every single data point shows,
445
00:10:18.559 --> 00:10:18.679
you know,
446
00:10:18.840 --> 00:10:19.619
the early voting,
447
00:10:20.239 --> 00:10:20.539
uh,
448
00:10:20.799 --> 00:10:21.840
donations,
449
00:10:21.960 --> 00:10:22.320
uh,
450
00:10:22.429 --> 00:10:22.820
you know,
451
00:10:23.359 --> 00:10:25.640
everything telling you this is going to be not a blue wave,
452
00:10:25.719 --> 00:10:26.559
a blue tsunami,
453
00:10:26.659 --> 00:10:28.200
a blue mega tsunami.
454
00:10:29.049 --> 00:10:31.039
They are really highly invested in that,
455
00:10:31.059 --> 00:10:32.669
and they have that euphoric feeling,
456
00:10:33.250 --> 00:10:33.909
and they are
457
00:10:34.049 --> 00:10:36.609
so locked in to telling you that is exactly how this is gonna happen,
458
00:10:36.650 --> 00:10:37.460
and maybe it will.
459
00:10:37.729 --> 00:10:38.049
I don't know.
460
00:10:38.130 --> 00:10:39.760
I don't get locked into those things anymore.
461
00:10:40.049 --> 00:10:40.169
You know,
462
00:10:40.250 --> 00:10:40.359
I,
463
00:10:40.409 --> 00:10:40.690
of course,
464
00:10:40.890 --> 00:10:41.729
have what I root for,
465
00:10:41.849 --> 00:10:42.849
and we talk about this all the time,
466
00:10:42.909 --> 00:10:44.679
10th Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
467
00:10:45.049 --> 00:10:46.890
root for the world that you want.
468
00:10:47.809 --> 00:10:49.599
But invest in the world that you have.
469
00:10:50.289 --> 00:10:51.369
And you may see,
470
00:10:51.530 --> 00:10:51.659
if,
471
00:10:51.710 --> 00:10:51.840
if,
472
00:10:51.890 --> 00:10:55.289
if a blue wave is the way that I'm going to profit off of this election,
473
00:10:55.570 --> 00:10:57.729
I will be very disappointed at the end of
474
00:10:57.729 --> 00:11:00.590
it because my personal politics are much more conservative.
475
00:11:01.049 --> 00:11:01.729
But at the end of the day,
476
00:11:01.770 --> 00:11:05.169
I'm not gonna throw money down the tube rooting on a side that's going to lose.
477
00:11:05.369 --> 00:11:06.130
I will root for them,
478
00:11:06.210 --> 00:11:06.369
yes,
479
00:11:06.489 --> 00:11:07.309
but I will not invest
480
00:11:07.729 --> 00:11:08.530
in those contracts,
481
00:11:08.640 --> 00:11:10.479
and I have a bunch of contracts on Democrats,
482
00:11:10.489 --> 00:11:10.909
even though,
483
00:11:11.369 --> 00:11:11.479
uh,
484
00:11:11.520 --> 00:11:11.650
you know,
485
00:11:11.729 --> 00:11:13.130
they might not be my preferred outcome.
486
00:11:16.270 --> 00:11:18.590
So you have this sort of dichotomy on the left where they're very,
487
00:11:18.710 --> 00:11:22.020
very invested in this narrative that it's gonna be a blue mega tsunami,
488
00:11:22.070 --> 00:11:24.239
but at the same time they're terrified,
489
00:11:24.590 --> 00:11:28.539
because they've predicted this over and over and over and over again,
490
00:11:28.710 --> 00:11:29.789
and have been disappointed,
491
00:11:29.950 --> 00:11:30.929
crushed even,
492
00:11:30.950 --> 00:11:33.429
over and over and over and over again.
493
00:11:34.570 --> 00:11:37.030
This can't be a comfortable time if you're on the left.
494
00:11:37.570 --> 00:11:40.090
But the data does suggest that this sort of,
495
00:11:40.210 --> 00:11:40.559
you know,
496
00:11:40.809 --> 00:11:41.609
thing that we're talking about,
497
00:11:41.690 --> 00:11:42.669
5 races,
498
00:11:43.049 --> 00:11:44.450
double-digit Trump states,
499
00:11:44.770 --> 00:11:46.840
now going the opposite way just 2 years later,
500
00:11:47.210 --> 00:11:49.190
the data does suggest it's possible.
501
00:11:49.570 --> 00:11:49.969
But,
502
00:11:50.830 --> 00:11:52.330
Has it ever happened before?
503
00:11:52.750 --> 00:11:53.109
I was like,
504
00:11:53.190 --> 00:11:54.130
I can't remember
505
00:11:54.789 --> 00:11:56.090
anything like this happening
506
00:11:56.469 --> 00:11:56.830
before.
507
00:11:57.530 --> 00:11:59.030
So he went back and looked through it.
508
00:11:59.169 --> 00:11:59.690
Modern history,
509
00:11:59.770 --> 00:12:00.479
I'm not going back to,
510
00:12:00.489 --> 00:12:00.609
you know,
511
00:12:00.719 --> 00:12:01.650
1880,
512
00:12:02.130 --> 00:12:02.570
but I'm talking about,
513
00:12:02.609 --> 00:12:02.809
you know,
514
00:12:03.049 --> 00:12:04.150
since like Reagan,
515
00:12:04.609 --> 00:12:06.549
has this ever happened,
516
00:12:07.169 --> 00:12:07.630
where
517
00:12:07.849 --> 00:12:11.270
five states that had been won in the previous election
518
00:12:11.729 --> 00:12:12.750
by one party
519
00:12:13.369 --> 00:12:14.570
would then flip.
520
00:12:15.890 --> 00:12:18.299
To the other side after being won
521
00:12:18.739 --> 00:12:22.070
by the the president's side by 10 points or more.
522
00:12:22.419 --> 00:12:23.020
Has this
523
00:12:23.250 --> 00:12:24.299
ever occurred?
524
00:12:24.630 --> 00:12:26.239
I wanna go through the data with you here,
525
00:12:26.820 --> 00:12:29.780
just to show you how difficult this would be,
526
00:12:29.940 --> 00:12:31.570
if this is actually realistic.
527
00:12:31.940 --> 00:12:35.419
How many Senate seats could flip in states that the president won
528
00:12:35.700 --> 00:12:37.299
by 10 points or more.
529
00:12:38.869 --> 00:12:39.750
I had some ideas,
530
00:12:39.789 --> 00:12:40.020
like,
531
00:12:40.190 --> 00:12:40.349
you know,
532
00:12:40.429 --> 00:12:41.229
there's been some bad year,
533
00:12:41.390 --> 00:12:42.469
bad year for Republicans,
534
00:12:42.510 --> 00:12:43.580
2018.
535
00:12:43.750 --> 00:12:46.070
How many times did this happen in 2018?
536
00:12:46.469 --> 00:12:46.940
Uh,
537
00:12:47.109 --> 00:12:47.789
zero.
538
00:12:48.229 --> 00:12:50.429
It happened zero times in 2018.
539
00:12:50.510 --> 00:12:52.950
The only Senate pickup for the Democrats was in Nevada,
540
00:12:52.989 --> 00:12:53.549
where Clinton,
541
00:12:53.710 --> 00:12:54.419
not Trump,
542
00:12:54.710 --> 00:12:55.710
won in 2016.
543
00:12:55.830 --> 00:12:56.150
So,
544
00:12:56.349 --> 00:12:57.130
2018
545
00:12:57.270 --> 00:12:57.890
did not happen.
546
00:12:58.030 --> 00:12:58.260
Again,
547
00:12:58.309 --> 00:12:59.450
a terrible year.
548
00:13:00.419 --> 00:13:01.500
For Republicans,
549
00:13:01.729 --> 00:13:03.200
but nothing like what we're seeing here.
550
00:13:04.190 --> 00:13:05.280
How about 2014?
551
00:13:05.400 --> 00:13:06.400
Great year for Republicans,
552
00:13:06.479 --> 00:13:06.919
did really,
553
00:13:07.030 --> 00:13:07.270
really well.
554
00:13:07.280 --> 00:13:10.150
I think they picked up seven Senate seats in 2014.
555
00:13:10.349 --> 00:13:11.229
How many times though,
556
00:13:11.280 --> 00:13:11.320
did,
557
00:13:11.440 --> 00:13:12.739
did they flip a state
558
00:13:13.039 --> 00:13:13.380
that
559
00:13:13.559 --> 00:13:16.119
Barack Obama had won by 10 points or more?
560
00:13:16.400 --> 00:13:16.979
Total,
561
00:13:17.400 --> 00:13:17.890
0.
562
00:13:18.669 --> 00:13:19.469
It didn't happen once.
563
00:13:19.549 --> 00:13:20.950
They flipped 7 seats.
564
00:13:21.770 --> 00:13:23.080
But 0
565
00:13:23.380 --> 00:13:25.799
that hit all these criteria that now
566
00:13:26.340 --> 00:13:27.559
Democrats are depending on
567
00:13:27.969 --> 00:13:29.979
to take the Senate by these big numbers.
568
00:13:30.809 --> 00:13:31.190
Um,
569
00:13:31.549 --> 00:13:31.710
Democrat,
570
00:13:31.820 --> 00:13:32.270
uh,
571
00:13:32.830 --> 00:13:34.539
they fill up 7 Democratic held seats.
572
00:13:34.669 --> 00:13:37.630
None was a state Obama had won by 10 or more points in 2012.
573
00:13:37.750 --> 00:13:38.010
OK.
574
00:13:39.179 --> 00:13:40.059
How about 2006?
575
00:13:40.099 --> 00:13:41.059
This was a disaster,
576
00:13:41.299 --> 00:13:43.080
really a catastrophic year
577
00:13:43.580 --> 00:13:45.169
for um Republicans,
578
00:13:45.219 --> 00:13:45.739
you remember this,
579
00:13:45.820 --> 00:13:45.989
uh,
580
00:13:46.099 --> 00:13:48.210
George Bush wins re-election in 2004,
581
00:13:48.619 --> 00:13:51.059
becomes pretty unpopular pretty fast after that.
582
00:13:51.380 --> 00:13:51.489
Uh,
583
00:13:51.500 --> 00:13:54.239
we're in the time where they're talking about the surge going on,
584
00:13:54.299 --> 00:13:55.659
it's just not going well
585
00:13:55.900 --> 00:13:57.119
in 2006.
586
00:13:58.489 --> 00:14:01.789
But how many states did Democrats flip from Republicans?
587
00:14:02.539 --> 00:14:05.650
That Republicans had just won by 10 or more points.
588
00:14:05.900 --> 00:14:06.659
The answer there,
589
00:14:06.890 --> 00:14:07.619
1.
590
00:14:08.059 --> 00:14:09.159
That was Montana.
591
00:14:09.739 --> 00:14:10.000
Uh,
592
00:14:10.140 --> 00:14:14.340
Montana Democrat Jon Tester defeated Republican incumbent Conrad Burns.
593
00:14:14.580 --> 00:14:17.690
Bush had carried Montana by about 20 points in 2004.
594
00:14:17.780 --> 00:14:17.849
So,
595
00:14:17.900 --> 00:14:18.020
OK,
596
00:14:18.099 --> 00:14:18.900
it is possible,
597
00:14:18.979 --> 00:14:19.289
right?
598
00:14:19.580 --> 00:14:20.690
In a bad year,
599
00:14:20.900 --> 00:14:22.020
that was a catastrophic year,
600
00:14:22.059 --> 00:14:22.969
2006,
601
00:14:23.210 --> 00:14:23.340
for,
602
00:14:23.380 --> 00:14:24.859
in a bad year for Republicans,
603
00:14:24.940 --> 00:14:27.820
it is possible for them to lose one of these types of states.
604
00:14:27.940 --> 00:14:28.219
However,
605
00:14:28.330 --> 00:14:28.580
they,
606
00:14:28.780 --> 00:14:29.849
we're not talking about one,
607
00:14:30.140 --> 00:14:31.659
we're talking about five.
608
00:14:32.299 --> 00:14:33.700
Being projected to go this way.
609
00:14:33.780 --> 00:14:35.380
Has that ever happened?
610
00:14:36.369 --> 00:14:38.070
We go back a little bit farther.
611
00:14:38.330 --> 00:14:40.030
How about the biggest wave
612
00:14:40.369 --> 00:14:41.609
this century?
613
00:14:43.049 --> 00:14:43.239
Well,
614
00:14:43.530 --> 00:14:44.099
not this century,
615
00:14:44.190 --> 00:14:45.289
but in a century,
616
00:14:45.570 --> 00:14:49.049
which was at the time the Tea Party wave of 2010.
617
00:14:49.169 --> 00:14:51.750
How many states did Republicans flip
618
00:14:52.169 --> 00:14:54.969
from Democrats after they had won in 2008
619
00:14:55.289 --> 00:14:56.489
by more than 10 points?
620
00:14:56.570 --> 00:14:57.510
The answer there,
621
00:14:57.989 --> 00:14:58.469
3.
622
00:14:58.570 --> 00:15:00.090
It did happen three times.
623
00:15:00.210 --> 00:15:00.690
Illinois,
624
00:15:00.809 --> 00:15:02.049
Mark Kirk won the seat by,
625
00:15:02.090 --> 00:15:02.750
uh,
626
00:15:02.760 --> 00:15:02.799
uh,
627
00:15:02.809 --> 00:15:03.289
held by
628
00:15:03.830 --> 00:15:04.750
Democrat Roland Burris,
629
00:15:04.830 --> 00:15:06.520
that was a really weird election though,
630
00:15:06.750 --> 00:15:07.770
remember that one that was,
631
00:15:08.059 --> 00:15:08.530
um,
632
00:15:08.669 --> 00:15:10.489
the governor being thrown in prison,
633
00:15:11.090 --> 00:15:14.030
uh Burris being uh appointed there,
634
00:15:14.250 --> 00:15:14.510
um,
635
00:15:14.590 --> 00:15:17.270
he was trying to sell that appointment because that was Barack Obama had,
636
00:15:17.309 --> 00:15:17.969
had left,
637
00:15:18.109 --> 00:15:18.669
that whole thing.
638
00:15:18.780 --> 00:15:18.799
It
639
00:15:19.299 --> 00:15:20.080
was a disaster.
640
00:15:20.570 --> 00:15:20.809
Um,
641
00:15:20.900 --> 00:15:21.419
Roland,
642
00:15:21.460 --> 00:15:21.960
uh,
643
00:15:22.260 --> 00:15:23.539
Burris did not win.
644
00:15:23.820 --> 00:15:24.650
Mark Kirk did.
645
00:15:24.900 --> 00:15:25.059
Um,
646
00:15:25.179 --> 00:15:25.940
Pat Toomey,
647
00:15:26.020 --> 00:15:26.219
uh,
648
00:15:26.390 --> 00:15:28.049
beat Joe Sestak in,
649
00:15:28.099 --> 00:15:28.340
uh,
650
00:15:28.450 --> 00:15:29.539
in Pennsylvania that year,
651
00:15:29.609 --> 00:15:31.900
and Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold.
652
00:15:32.010 --> 00:15:34.080
That was a kind of a big upset at that time.
653
00:15:34.739 --> 00:15:35.340
Tea Party wave,
654
00:15:35.419 --> 00:15:36.000
huge election.
655
00:15:36.500 --> 00:15:38.580
Obama had won all three states by 10+ points.
656
00:15:38.690 --> 00:15:39.799
So it had 3 times.
657
00:15:39.979 --> 00:15:41.619
It is possible that it can happen,
658
00:15:41.869 --> 00:15:42.049
uh,
659
00:15:42.140 --> 00:15:42.539
3 times.
660
00:15:42.619 --> 00:15:44.140
Can it happen 5 times though?
661
00:15:44.580 --> 00:15:45.580
We had to go way back.
662
00:15:46.280 --> 00:15:46.880
We need to go way back.
663
00:15:47.030 --> 00:15:48.549
And we looked through all these midterms,
664
00:15:48.760 --> 00:15:49.900
had to go way back.
665
00:15:50.520 --> 00:15:53.440
We went back to 1986.
666
00:15:53.840 --> 00:15:54.719
1986,
667
00:15:54.799 --> 00:15:57.299
if you remember this context for a second.
668
00:15:57.760 --> 00:15:58.679
In 1986,
669
00:15:58.799 --> 00:16:03.640
Ronald Reagan has just won the biggest blowout election in US history,
670
00:16:03.719 --> 00:16:04.349
arguably,
671
00:16:04.469 --> 00:16:04.750
right?
672
00:16:04.950 --> 00:16:06.900
He wins 49 states.
673
00:16:07.409 --> 00:16:08.179
In that election.
674
00:16:08.299 --> 00:16:09.530
That gives the,
675
00:16:09.580 --> 00:16:10.080
um,
676
00:16:10.140 --> 00:16:10.530
uh,
677
00:16:10.619 --> 00:16:14.640
the Democrats a huge window of opportunity to pick off states like
678
00:16:14.780 --> 00:16:18.099
that Ronald Reagan had just won by 10 because he won tons of states by 10,
679
00:16:18.380 --> 00:16:20.020
tons of Democratic states by 10,
680
00:16:20.289 --> 00:16:20.460
um,
681
00:16:20.570 --> 00:16:22.059
and so that did happen
682
00:16:22.219 --> 00:16:23.380
in 1986,
683
00:16:23.390 --> 00:16:23.780
and in fact,
684
00:16:23.799 --> 00:16:25.309
it happened 7 times.
685
00:16:25.500 --> 00:16:27.840
So they were able to do 7 of these flips,
686
00:16:28.049 --> 00:16:28.179
uh,
687
00:16:28.260 --> 00:16:29.280
Alabama,
688
00:16:29.690 --> 00:16:30.440
Florida,
689
00:16:31.020 --> 00:16:31.690
uh,
690
00:16:31.780 --> 00:16:32.219
let's see,
691
00:16:32.340 --> 00:16:33.559
North Carolina,
692
00:16:34.299 --> 00:16:35.340
North Dakota.
693
00:16:35.919 --> 00:16:36.520
Nevada,
694
00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:38.059
that was Harry Reid winning,
695
00:16:38.489 --> 00:16:38.640
uh,
696
00:16:38.760 --> 00:16:39.820
South Dakota,
697
00:16:40.349 --> 00:16:42.000
and I think I got all of them in there.
698
00:16:42.039 --> 00:16:42.719
I may have missed one,
699
00:16:42.799 --> 00:16:44.000
but it was 7 of them overall.
700
00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:46.640
Reagan had carried all 7 by 10 points in 1984.
701
00:16:46.679 --> 00:16:47.989
And the only reason that this happened,
702
00:16:48.280 --> 00:16:50.239
and many of them were razor thin margins,
703
00:16:50.489 --> 00:16:52.630
was because Reagan had won 49 states.
704
00:16:52.719 --> 00:16:53.260
So basically,
705
00:16:53.270 --> 00:16:55.419
it was the opportunity of every state in the country.
706
00:16:55.960 --> 00:16:56.309
Um,
707
00:16:56.400 --> 00:16:59.179
he had way more chances to lose a state that he would normally win.
708
00:17:00.119 --> 00:17:02.229
But this is a totally dissimilar case
709
00:17:02.650 --> 00:17:03.869
to what we're dealing with now.
710
00:17:04.368 --> 00:17:05.650
Reagan had won 49 states.
711
00:17:05.770 --> 00:17:06.630
Donald Trump,
712
00:17:07.010 --> 00:17:07.368
um,
713
00:17:07.689 --> 00:17:07.930
had,
714
00:17:08.050 --> 00:17:09.310
he did sweep
715
00:17:09.770 --> 00:17:10.199
those,
716
00:17:10.250 --> 00:17:10.989
um,
717
00:17:11.098 --> 00:17:11.199
uh,
718
00:17:11.209 --> 00:17:11.848
swing states.
719
00:17:11.900 --> 00:17:12.290
If you remember,
720
00:17:12.329 --> 00:17:15.650
there's 7 swing states that people considered kind of swing states at that time.
721
00:17:15.930 --> 00:17:17.020
He won all 7 of them.
722
00:17:17.140 --> 00:17:17.640
He won
723
00:17:17.858 --> 00:17:18.680
all 7 of them,
724
00:17:19.020 --> 00:17:21.300
I believe all 7 of them by less than 10,
725
00:17:21.380 --> 00:17:24.290
and I don't think there was even one that was necessarily really close to 10 points,
726
00:17:24.500 --> 00:17:25.180
if I remember right.
727
00:17:25.219 --> 00:17:26.598
They were pretty close elections.
728
00:17:26.900 --> 00:17:27.260
He won,
729
00:17:27.380 --> 00:17:28.358
he did win all of them,
730
00:17:28.500 --> 00:17:28.979
but they were very,
731
00:17:29.089 --> 00:17:29.689
very tight,
732
00:17:29.900 --> 00:17:30.420
some of them by,
733
00:17:30.500 --> 00:17:30.619
you know,
734
00:17:30.739 --> 00:17:31.650
1 point or less.
735
00:17:31.939 --> 00:17:32.199
So,
736
00:17:32.380 --> 00:17:32.530
very,
737
00:17:32.619 --> 00:17:33.540
very tight states.
738
00:17:34.479 --> 00:17:37.469
It's totally unlike the Reagan wave,
739
00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:37.839
right?
740
00:17:37.989 --> 00:17:38.510
Reagan comes in,
741
00:17:38.560 --> 00:17:39.520
he wins 49 states.
742
00:17:39.630 --> 00:17:41.719
Almost every state in the union would qualify for this
743
00:17:41.719 --> 00:17:43.599
because he won almost every state by 10 points,
744
00:17:44.040 --> 00:17:45.030
and so there were 7.
745
00:17:45.280 --> 00:17:46.140
This is totally different.
746
00:17:47.000 --> 00:17:49.010
Let me bring up the Senate board and show you what this looks like,
747
00:17:49.079 --> 00:17:49.420
because
748
00:17:50.550 --> 00:17:52.660
But the Democrats are asking an awful
749
00:17:53.130 --> 00:17:53.829
lot here.
750
00:17:54.160 --> 00:17:54.439
Right now,
751
00:17:54.479 --> 00:17:54.719
if you,
752
00:17:54.819 --> 00:17:55.790
if you were to take these,
753
00:17:55.869 --> 00:17:56.189
uh,
754
00:17:56.280 --> 00:17:57.140
5 states,
755
00:17:57.680 --> 00:17:59.199
and you put them in the toss-up category,
756
00:17:59.280 --> 00:17:59.920
that's Alaska,
757
00:18:00.030 --> 00:18:00.459
Ohio,
758
00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:01.439
Iowa,
759
00:18:01.640 --> 00:18:02.040
Texas,
760
00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:02.680
and Kansas,
761
00:18:02.800 --> 00:18:04.000
all states that,
762
00:18:04.010 --> 00:18:06.199
that the Washington Post is referring to when they say
763
00:18:06.199 --> 00:18:08.199
there's gonna be a 10 point margin for Donald Trump,
764
00:18:08.479 --> 00:18:10.959
that's now going to go all the way back and go to
765
00:18:11.239 --> 00:18:12.300
the Democrats
766
00:18:12.599 --> 00:18:13.839
in a flip
767
00:18:13.949 --> 00:18:14.160
situation.
768
00:18:14.979 --> 00:18:15.540
Um,
769
00:18:15.780 --> 00:18:16.130
if you,
770
00:18:16.469 --> 00:18:19.130
if you put all those in the toss-up category,
771
00:18:19.300 --> 00:18:20.540
the Democrats are still pretty close.
772
00:18:20.660 --> 00:18:21.010
What is the,
773
00:18:21.089 --> 00:18:22.839
what do the numbers look like for this one?
774
00:18:22.930 --> 00:18:23.020
Uh,
775
00:18:23.140 --> 00:18:24.000
can we scroll up a little bit?
776
00:18:24.349 --> 00:18:26.119
So that's 49 Democrats.
777
00:18:26.619 --> 00:18:27.060
Let's just,
778
00:18:27.579 --> 00:18:27.859
now,
779
00:18:28.140 --> 00:18:29.239
they're gonna have to win
780
00:18:30.000 --> 00:18:31.750
2 of these 5
781
00:18:32.219 --> 00:18:32.839
to do this.
782
00:18:33.020 --> 00:18:33.849
Can they do that?
783
00:18:34.140 --> 00:18:34.479
I mean,
784
00:18:34.660 --> 00:18:35.040
yeah,
785
00:18:35.130 --> 00:18:35.969
it's possible.
786
00:18:36.060 --> 00:18:36.260
I mean,
787
00:18:36.599 --> 00:18:37.260
the best.
788
00:18:37.910 --> 00:18:38.680
The best
789
00:18:38.900 --> 00:18:41.560
argument for it is probably 2006.
790
00:18:41.660 --> 00:18:42.800
2006
791
00:18:43.060 --> 00:18:44.339
is a pretty similar,
792
00:18:44.459 --> 00:18:46.560
maybe you'd say 2010 is somewhat similar
793
00:18:46.859 --> 00:18:47.530
in a wave.
794
00:18:47.699 --> 00:18:48.979
2006 and 2010,
795
00:18:49.040 --> 00:18:50.459
they won an average of two seats.
796
00:18:50.540 --> 00:18:53.050
If the Democrats pick off two of those toss-up seats,
797
00:18:53.130 --> 00:18:53.540
give them,
798
00:18:53.859 --> 00:18:54.089
give them,
799
00:18:54.099 --> 00:18:54.380
uh,
800
00:18:54.550 --> 00:18:54.849
give them,
801
00:18:54.859 --> 00:18:55.699
uh,
802
00:18:56.099 --> 00:18:57.020
Alaska and Ohio,
803
00:18:57.140 --> 00:18:58.260
they're at the top of the list there,
804
00:18:58.339 --> 00:18:58.739
Adam.
805
00:18:58.979 --> 00:18:59.979
If you drag those over,
806
00:19:00.020 --> 00:19:00.489
you can do this,
807
00:19:00.500 --> 00:19:00.750
by the way,
808
00:19:00.819 --> 00:19:01.819
at predictableShow.com.
809
00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:02.910
It's a free category,
810
00:19:03.170 --> 00:19:03.369
um,
811
00:19:03.699 --> 00:19:04.099
a free,
812
00:19:04.180 --> 00:19:04.479
uh,
813
00:19:04.660 --> 00:19:04.819
thing.
814
00:19:04.939 --> 00:19:05.050
Give,
815
00:19:05.180 --> 00:19:05.290
give,
816
00:19:05.339 --> 00:19:05.530
uh,
817
00:19:05.540 --> 00:19:05.800
the,
818
00:19:05.939 --> 00:19:07.479
give two states to the Democrats here.
819
00:19:08.130 --> 00:19:08.989
They pick off two,
820
00:19:09.050 --> 00:19:09.890
Iowa and Texas,
821
00:19:09.969 --> 00:19:10.239
whatever,
822
00:19:10.290 --> 00:19:10.780
it doesn't matter.
823
00:19:10.890 --> 00:19:11.589
We're just kind of
824
00:19:11.829 --> 00:19:12.770
using these as a category,
825
00:19:12.890 --> 00:19:14.349
give Kansas to the Republicans.
826
00:19:14.609 --> 00:19:15.709
If all that goes that way,
827
00:19:15.719 --> 00:19:17.630
and they pick off two of these states
828
00:19:17.939 --> 00:19:19.589
that they lost by 10 points
829
00:19:19.849 --> 00:19:21.689
back in 2024,
830
00:19:21.939 --> 00:19:23.829
and now have moved to the Republican side,
831
00:19:24.130 --> 00:19:27.050
you get a 51-49 majority for the Democrats.
832
00:19:27.130 --> 00:19:27.920
They take the Senate.
833
00:19:28.130 --> 00:19:30.150
They're gonna have to win two of those five.
834
00:19:30.329 --> 00:19:30.750
That's
835
00:19:30.890 --> 00:19:31.489
if
836
00:19:31.770 --> 00:19:32.599
they win Michigan,
837
00:19:32.650 --> 00:19:33.369
which is a toss-up,
838
00:19:33.449 --> 00:19:33.890
and Maine,
839
00:19:33.969 --> 00:19:34.900
which is a toss-up.
840
00:19:35.250 --> 00:19:37.010
This is a hard thing to do.
841
00:19:38.130 --> 00:19:38.790
Now,
842
00:19:39.170 --> 00:19:39.449
what's,
843
00:19:39.569 --> 00:19:41.270
what I think people are losing sight of
844
00:19:41.630 --> 00:19:47.260
is we're already at blue wave territory because we're talking about these states.
845
00:19:47.410 --> 00:19:49.390
If these states are anywhere close
846
00:19:49.530 --> 00:19:50.709
to what we're talking about,
847
00:19:50.890 --> 00:19:51.329
if these,
848
00:19:51.410 --> 00:19:54.989
if the Republicans win all five of these states by 2 points,
849
00:19:55.290 --> 00:19:56.930
we're still in blue wave territory.
850
00:19:57.130 --> 00:19:58.790
You're talking about a situation where
851
00:19:58.930 --> 00:20:01.130
there are 230,
852
00:20:01.209 --> 00:20:03.030
235 seats maybe
853
00:20:03.209 --> 00:20:03.750
in the House
854
00:20:04.130 --> 00:20:05.319
that go towards Democrats.
855
00:20:05.750 --> 00:20:06.099
Um,
856
00:20:06.290 --> 00:20:06.650
these,
857
00:20:06.969 --> 00:20:07.359
like,
858
00:20:07.369 --> 00:20:10.430
the fact that these are close races already means this is a good year
859
00:20:10.810 --> 00:20:11.489
for Democrats.
860
00:20:12.449 --> 00:20:13.510
Maybe that will be wrong.
861
00:20:13.849 --> 00:20:15.479
Maybe Republicans will outperform and,
862
00:20:15.489 --> 00:20:18.209
and do much better and win these states by 10 points.
863
00:20:18.329 --> 00:20:18.829
I don't know.
864
00:20:19.699 --> 00:20:20.020
But
865
00:20:20.719 --> 00:20:20.849
Like,
866
00:20:20.890 --> 00:20:22.449
it's like when people talk to me about like,
867
00:20:22.489 --> 00:20:22.640
oh,
868
00:20:22.689 --> 00:20:25.849
do you think LeBron James or Michael Jordan is the greatest player of all time?
869
00:20:25.890 --> 00:20:26.280
And I say,
870
00:20:26.369 --> 00:20:26.829
look,
871
00:20:27.250 --> 00:20:27.410
uh,
872
00:20:27.489 --> 00:20:27.890
number 1,
873
00:20:28.010 --> 00:20:29.280
it's the dumbest question I've ever heard.
874
00:20:29.380 --> 00:20:29.729
Obviously,
875
00:20:29.810 --> 00:20:31.150
Michael Jordan is the better player.
876
00:20:31.569 --> 00:20:32.349
That being said,
877
00:20:32.660 --> 00:20:33.209
uh,
878
00:20:33.329 --> 00:20:35.709
LeBron James isn't the 2nd best player of all time either.
879
00:20:35.930 --> 00:20:38.010
And then people get really pissed off when I say that.
880
00:20:38.050 --> 00:20:38.329
And then I,
881
00:20:38.400 --> 00:20:40.689
when I start sliding him down the risk and list and making
882
00:20:40.689 --> 00:20:43.349
arguments that he's actually kind of further down than you might think,
883
00:20:43.849 --> 00:20:45.770
people get upset that LeBron people do.
884
00:20:45.849 --> 00:20:47.270
But what I'm saying there,
885
00:20:47.989 --> 00:20:50.910
It's not that LeBron James is the worst player of all time.
886
00:20:50.989 --> 00:20:52.949
I'm not saying he can't play basketball.
887
00:20:53.030 --> 00:20:53.890
What I'm saying is,
888
00:20:54.170 --> 00:20:54.810
is he,
889
00:20:55.380 --> 00:20:55.550
you know,
890
00:20:55.750 --> 00:20:57.069
in the top 2 or 3,
891
00:20:57.109 --> 00:20:59.390
or is he maybe down towards the bottom of the top 10?
892
00:21:00.859 --> 00:21:02.859
Regardless of what I'm saying is I'm saying
893
00:21:02.859 --> 00:21:05.219
LeBron James is an excellent basketball player,
894
00:21:05.500 --> 00:21:05.660
uh,
895
00:21:05.709 --> 00:21:08.729
with incredible historic context,
896
00:21:08.810 --> 00:21:09.239
right?
897
00:21:09.739 --> 00:21:11.160
But people get very upset.
898
00:21:11.380 --> 00:21:12.780
When I talk to Democrats and I say,
899
00:21:12.890 --> 00:21:13.020
well,
900
00:21:13.140 --> 00:21:16.939
maybe they're not gonna be able to flip 5 races that they won the state
901
00:21:16.939 --> 00:21:20.540
by double digits last time or they lost the state by double digits in 2,
902
00:21:20.630 --> 00:21:21.500
just 2 years ago.
903
00:21:21.900 --> 00:21:23.699
That's not saying they're not gonna have a good year.
904
00:21:24.160 --> 00:21:24.319
I mean,
905
00:21:24.390 --> 00:21:26.599
I think right now the data does point me to
906
00:21:26.599 --> 00:21:28.459
believe that the Democrats will have a good year.
907
00:21:28.560 --> 00:21:31.060
It does point me to believe that the Democrats will win the House.
908
00:21:31.239 --> 00:21:32.640
It does point me to believe that
909
00:21:32.800 --> 00:21:36.349
the Democrats will likely get to 49 seats,
910
00:21:36.359 --> 00:21:37.739
probably for sure.
911
00:21:38.319 --> 00:21:39.699
Very close to for sure.
912
00:21:40.040 --> 00:21:41.420
But that does not mean
913
00:21:41.920 --> 00:21:45.599
that they're gonna be able to flip 5 states that they had double digit leads in.
914
00:21:46.800 --> 00:21:47.680
They may do it,
915
00:21:47.760 --> 00:21:48.430
we will see.
916
00:21:48.680 --> 00:21:50.420
Let me show you what these markets look for
917
00:21:50.420 --> 00:21:51.839
and tell you what the prediction markets say,
918
00:21:51.880 --> 00:21:53.560
and you can see if there's opportunities here.
919
00:21:53.640 --> 00:21:54.439
Let's start with Texas.
920
00:21:54.469 --> 00:21:55.800
It's the highest profile race.
921
00:21:56.040 --> 00:21:57.459
Everybody's talking about it all the time.
922
00:21:58.109 --> 00:22:00.280
James Tallarico is a 2 to 1 favorite in this race.
923
00:22:01.449 --> 00:22:01.589
Now,
924
00:22:01.609 --> 00:22:04.989
the polling does not describe him as a 2 to 1 favorite.
925
00:22:05.609 --> 00:22:05.800
Uh,
926
00:22:05.890 --> 00:22:06.569
the margin,
927
00:22:06.689 --> 00:22:08.000
as Calci projects here,
928
00:22:08.050 --> 00:22:10.109
is a 2.3 point lead.
929
00:22:10.489 --> 00:22:12.479
If that's off by obviously a couple points,
930
00:22:12.530 --> 00:22:13.930
a couple people changing their mind,
931
00:22:14.050 --> 00:22:15.510
more Republicans coming out.
932
00:22:16.400 --> 00:22:16.780
Then,
933
00:22:16.959 --> 00:22:17.510
uh,
934
00:22:17.609 --> 00:22:19.199
you're gonna see Tallarico lose.
935
00:22:19.239 --> 00:22:19.560
This is,
936
00:22:19.640 --> 00:22:21.430
you could take 33 cents,
937
00:22:21.920 --> 00:22:22.920
invest it in Ken Paxson,
938
00:22:22.959 --> 00:22:24.300
and turn it into a dollar,
939
00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:27.339
giving you a very nice percentage gain
940
00:22:27.510 --> 00:22:29.020
in less than a week.
941
00:22:29.400 --> 00:22:31.520
You might not believe Paxson's gonna hold off there.
942
00:22:31.680 --> 00:22:31.770
The,
943
00:22:31.839 --> 00:22:33.109
the early voting does not look good,
944
00:22:33.119 --> 00:22:34.959
and I am very concerned on that race.
945
00:22:35.060 --> 00:22:35.160
I,
946
00:22:35.239 --> 00:22:35.439
I,
947
00:22:35.560 --> 00:22:35.760
you know,
948
00:22:35.869 --> 00:22:36.760
as someone who would,
949
00:22:36.880 --> 00:22:38.540
would rather have Paxton as my senator,
950
00:22:38.920 --> 00:22:39.719
I live in Texas.
951
00:22:40.150 --> 00:22:40.829
I would,
952
00:22:40.890 --> 00:22:41.430
um,
953
00:22:41.949 --> 00:22:43.650
the Hispanic vote is probably
954
00:22:44.050 --> 00:22:46.069
going to be enough to either make that razor,
955
00:22:46.109 --> 00:22:47.250
razor thin margin
956
00:22:47.550 --> 00:22:48.890
on the Paxson side or
957
00:22:49.189 --> 00:22:49.910
probably make,
958
00:22:50.030 --> 00:22:50.300
uh,
959
00:22:50.310 --> 00:22:50.949
Tallarico win.
960
00:22:51.030 --> 00:22:53.449
I don't think necessarily it's the same in the governor's race.
961
00:22:53.949 --> 00:22:54.790
Let's go to Ohio,
962
00:22:54.949 --> 00:22:55.849
next race on this list.
963
00:22:55.910 --> 00:22:56.390
Ohio.
964
00:22:56.739 --> 00:22:57.030
Again,
965
00:22:57.189 --> 00:22:59.869
Sherrod Brown with a massive lead over John Husted.
966
00:23:00.189 --> 00:23:01.089
The polling again,
967
00:23:01.380 --> 00:23:04.530
you see the Democratic projected margin of a 3 point victory.
968
00:23:04.750 --> 00:23:06.469
Most polling is showing this race very,
969
00:23:06.589 --> 00:23:07.069
very close.
970
00:23:07.170 --> 00:23:08.949
I believe a poll came out today by Echelon,
971
00:23:09.000 --> 00:23:09.510
I think it was,
972
00:23:09.709 --> 00:23:10.819
that had this race tied.
973
00:23:11.069 --> 00:23:11.189
Uh,
974
00:23:11.199 --> 00:23:13.050
this is a very close race.
975
00:23:13.670 --> 00:23:13.869
Again,
976
00:23:13.989 --> 00:23:15.709
if you believe in the Republican here,
977
00:23:16.069 --> 00:23:18.790
big time opportunities on prediction markets right now,
978
00:23:18.829 --> 00:23:19.229
and honestly,
979
00:23:19.270 --> 00:23:21.270
a solid return even if you believe in Sherrod Brown.
980
00:23:21.589 --> 00:23:22.099
Um,
981
00:23:22.290 --> 00:23:22.520
you know,
982
00:23:22.920 --> 00:23:23.119
that's,
983
00:23:23.160 --> 00:23:25.459
you're talking about a 50% gain in less than a week.
984
00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:26.199
Iowa,
985
00:23:26.359 --> 00:23:28.739
razor thin in the margins here.
986
00:23:29.400 --> 00:23:29.920
Right now,
987
00:23:30.170 --> 00:23:33.020
Ashley Hinson is a 1.1%
988
00:23:33.400 --> 00:23:34.140
margin.
989
00:23:34.310 --> 00:23:34.420
Uh,
990
00:23:34.520 --> 00:23:36.560
she's still the slight favorite in the prediction markets,
991
00:23:36.599 --> 00:23:37.780
54%.
992
00:23:38.160 --> 00:23:38.819
Massive,
993
00:23:39.270 --> 00:23:39.900
uh,
994
00:23:39.920 --> 00:23:41.160
possibilities for you and,
995
00:23:41.239 --> 00:23:42.750
and percentage gains if you have a,
996
00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:44.420
a take on that particular market.
997
00:23:44.640 --> 00:23:45.520
Let's look at Kansas,
998
00:23:45.640 --> 00:23:47.020
another razor thin race.
999
00:23:47.199 --> 00:23:47.479
Right now,
1000
00:23:47.520 --> 00:23:51.599
the projected margin is Republican Roger Marshall with it by a 1.6%.
1001
00:23:51.855 --> 00:23:52.595
0% margin.
1002
00:23:52.845 --> 00:23:55.826
He's a 60/40 favorite in this race.
1003
00:23:56.166 --> 00:23:57.326
But if you believe in Hamilton,
1004
00:23:57.526 --> 00:23:58.465
tons of money to be made.
1005
00:23:58.845 --> 00:24:00.156
If you want to hedge your life on Hamilton,
1006
00:24:00.286 --> 00:24:01.265
tons of money to be made.
1007
00:24:01.686 --> 00:24:03.005
But also Roger Marshall,
1008
00:24:03.276 --> 00:24:03.385
uh,
1009
00:24:03.485 --> 00:24:03.595
you know,
1010
00:24:03.645 --> 00:24:06.406
you're talking about a 67% return in less than a week.
1011
00:24:06.485 --> 00:24:07.885
Where else are you getting that in the stock market?
1012
00:24:07.965 --> 00:24:08.796
Probably not happening.
1013
00:24:09.005 --> 00:24:09.446
Alaska,
1014
00:24:09.566 --> 00:24:11.625
Mary Peltola is the heavy favorite there.
1015
00:24:11.875 --> 00:24:12.066
Um,
1016
00:24:12.166 --> 00:24:12.885
this is the race,
1017
00:24:12.965 --> 00:24:13.365
by the way,
1018
00:24:13.515 --> 00:24:14.046
where the biggest
1019
00:24:14.411 --> 00:24:18.131
Disagreement between prediction markets and polling averages.
1020
00:24:18.411 --> 00:24:20.082
71% for Mary Peltola,
1021
00:24:20.131 --> 00:24:20.692
only a 20,
1022
00:24:20.832 --> 00:24:20.842
uh,
1023
00:24:20.972 --> 00:24:22.921
30% chance for Dan Sullivan
1024
00:24:23.121 --> 00:24:23.472
to win
1025
00:24:23.692 --> 00:24:24.852
the other Dan Sullivan
1026
00:24:25.001 --> 00:24:25.791
far down the list.
1027
00:24:26.161 --> 00:24:26.371
Uh,
1028
00:24:26.572 --> 00:24:26.812
Maine,
1029
00:24:26.891 --> 00:24:29.602
the other two races I just want to highlight quickly before we go to break.
1030
00:24:29.932 --> 00:24:30.552
Maine is,
1031
00:24:30.602 --> 00:24:31.251
uh,
1032
00:24:31.312 --> 00:24:31.991
uh,
1033
00:24:32.052 --> 00:24:32.291
of course,
1034
00:24:32.411 --> 00:24:33.232
Susan Collins
1035
00:24:33.602 --> 00:24:34.552
against Troy Jackson.
1036
00:24:34.732 --> 00:24:36.232
Collins in the high thirties,
1037
00:24:37.092 --> 00:24:37.291
you know,
1038
00:24:37.452 --> 00:24:37.572
again,
1039
00:24:37.651 --> 00:24:39.011
I think this is a total toss-up.
1040
00:24:39.131 --> 00:24:40.651
Jackson with a slight polling lead,
1041
00:24:40.842 --> 00:24:42.082
1.9%.
1042
00:24:42.349 --> 00:24:43.160
And then finally,
1043
00:24:43.239 --> 00:24:43.400
uh,
1044
00:24:43.520 --> 00:24:44.479
Michigan Senate
1045
00:24:44.680 --> 00:24:44.979
is,
1046
00:24:45.040 --> 00:24:45.239
uh,
1047
00:24:45.319 --> 00:24:47.180
the Abdul El Sayed show
1048
00:24:47.439 --> 00:24:49.109
going up against Mike Rogers.
1049
00:24:49.380 --> 00:24:52.260
He is a 2.5% margin forecast,
1050
00:24:52.560 --> 00:24:52.680
uh,
1051
00:24:52.839 --> 00:24:53.839
say the prediction markets,
1052
00:24:54.079 --> 00:24:57.060
but Abdul El Sayyed at a 6931
1053
00:24:57.400 --> 00:24:57.949
favorite.
1054
00:24:58.439 --> 00:24:58.959
There is,
1055
00:24:59.119 --> 00:24:59.439
and look,
1056
00:24:59.640 --> 00:25:00.439
people tell me all the time,
1057
00:25:00.520 --> 00:25:00.680
oh,
1058
00:25:00.760 --> 00:25:01.359
you don't believe this.
1059
00:25:01.439 --> 00:25:02.199
I don't believe that.
1060
00:25:02.359 --> 00:25:02.479
You know,
1061
00:25:02.599 --> 00:25:02.979
look,
1062
00:25:03.390 --> 00:25:04.020
I get that.
1063
00:25:05.000 --> 00:25:07.040
A great opportunity to put your money where your mouth is.
1064
00:25:07.290 --> 00:25:08.569
You don't have to yell at me at Twitter.
1065
00:25:08.650 --> 00:25:08.760
I,
1066
00:25:08.949 --> 00:25:08.969
you know,
1067
00:25:09.449 --> 00:25:10.290
my opinions might be wrong,
1068
00:25:10.369 --> 00:25:11.189
they might be right.
1069
00:25:11.650 --> 00:25:11.959
But
1070
00:25:12.209 --> 00:25:12.930
take advantage of that.
1071
00:25:13.010 --> 00:25:14.000
If you think I'm an idiot,
1072
00:25:14.160 --> 00:25:14.319
uh,
1073
00:25:14.410 --> 00:25:15.449
go on these prediction markets,
1074
00:25:15.469 --> 00:25:16.270
you can make money.
1075
00:25:16.449 --> 00:25:17.969
If you believe that the media is lying to you.
1076
00:25:18.050 --> 00:25:19.280
You got an opportunity to,
1077
00:25:19.400 --> 00:25:21.199
to put your money where your mouth is and,
1078
00:25:21.250 --> 00:25:21.599
uh,
1079
00:25:21.609 --> 00:25:22.030
profit.
1080
00:25:22.119 --> 00:25:24.250
Buy yourself a fancy dinner.
1081
00:25:24.359 --> 00:25:24.550
Buy,
1082
00:25:24.689 --> 00:25:25.609
take your family out
1083
00:25:25.810 --> 00:25:26.530
to a nice evening,
1084
00:25:26.770 --> 00:25:27.849
go on a nice vacation.
1085
00:25:27.969 --> 00:25:28.050
You,
1086
00:25:28.140 --> 00:25:29.010
you can choose
1087
00:25:29.250 --> 00:25:31.030
how much you win or lose
1088
00:25:31.250 --> 00:25:31.969
in prediction markets,
1089
00:25:32.069 --> 00:25:32.369
but if you're,
1090
00:25:32.410 --> 00:25:32.910
if you're
1091
00:25:33.170 --> 00:25:34.150
confident in your opinion,
1092
00:25:34.859 --> 00:25:35.979
There's great opportunities for you.
1093
00:25:36.060 --> 00:25:36.890
Look at these races.
1094
00:25:37.099 --> 00:25:37.739
People tell me they're,
1095
00:25:37.819 --> 00:25:39.540
they're sure what's gonna happen on this stuff all the time,
1096
00:25:39.619 --> 00:25:39.920
but
1097
00:25:40.260 --> 00:25:41.800
I don't see them in prediction markets often.
1098
00:25:42.500 --> 00:25:43.439
If you believe in it,
1099
00:25:43.979 --> 00:25:45.329
take an opportunity to go in there and,
1100
00:25:45.369 --> 00:25:45.500
and,
1101
00:25:45.530 --> 00:25:46.109
and profit,
1102
00:25:46.119 --> 00:25:46.969
because if you're right,
1103
00:25:47.300 --> 00:25:47.819
you can do very,
1104
00:25:47.930 --> 00:25:48.579
very well
1105
00:25:48.729 --> 00:25:49.979
here with only 6 days.
1106
00:25:50.469 --> 00:25:51.609
Waiting until this election.
1107
00:25:51.780 --> 00:25:53.770
PredictableShow.com is a great place for you to go.
1108
00:25:53.829 --> 00:25:54.439
If you think,
1109
00:25:54.670 --> 00:25:54.859
uh,
1110
00:25:54.869 --> 00:25:55.959
this analysis is helpful,
1111
00:25:56.069 --> 00:25:58.670
we've got great tools for you to analyze these elections,
1112
00:25:58.750 --> 00:26:00.530
and we have tons of people who are signing up.
1113
00:26:00.709 --> 00:26:01.099
Right now,
1114
00:26:01.189 --> 00:26:01.619
obviously,
1115
00:26:01.630 --> 00:26:02.670
we're getting very close to the election,
1116
00:26:02.750 --> 00:26:04.219
so people are jumping on the bandwagon and,
1117
00:26:04.229 --> 00:26:04.819
and getting involved,
1118
00:26:04.829 --> 00:26:05.790
and I hope you do that.
1119
00:26:06.109 --> 00:26:06.260
Uh,
1120
00:26:06.410 --> 00:26:08.849
because I do think it will help your performance
1121
00:26:09.030 --> 00:26:10.550
here if you're getting into these markets,
1122
00:26:10.660 --> 00:26:12.270
or if you just wanna have a deeper dive
1123
00:26:12.469 --> 00:26:14.010
into what the data really says.
1124
00:26:14.430 --> 00:26:15.670
We've got some great tools for you to,
1125
00:26:15.750 --> 00:26:17.130
to use on the premium side.
1126
00:26:17.219 --> 00:26:19.069
PredictableShow.com is the place to go.
1127
00:26:19.310 --> 00:26:21.500
Predictableshow.com.
1128
00:26:38.839 --> 00:26:42.380
The predictable midterm consensus is an election model that I built,
1129
00:26:42.439 --> 00:26:42.790
um,
1130
00:26:42.880 --> 00:26:44.140
recently for this year,
1131
00:26:44.199 --> 00:26:44.560
um,
1132
00:26:44.959 --> 00:26:45.479
very thorough,
1133
00:26:45.560 --> 00:26:46.439
very updated,
1134
00:26:46.520 --> 00:26:48.349
and it takes into account a lot of different things,
1135
00:26:48.640 --> 00:26:50.219
everything from polling averages to,
1136
00:26:50.229 --> 00:26:50.670
uh,
1137
00:26:50.680 --> 00:26:51.869
fundraising to,
1138
00:26:51.949 --> 00:26:52.280
I don't know,
1139
00:26:52.479 --> 00:26:54.900
there's not really much early vote in there.
1140
00:26:55.290 --> 00:26:55.640
Um,
1141
00:26:55.719 --> 00:26:56.489
I'm kind of
1142
00:26:56.630 --> 00:27:00.390
a little bit of a skeptic on the early vote and how much that tells us.
1143
00:27:00.660 --> 00:27:01.900
Though as more and more
1144
00:27:02.099 --> 00:27:03.160
vote becomes early,
1145
00:27:03.400 --> 00:27:05.079
it probably tells us more than it used to.
1146
00:27:05.530 --> 00:27:05.650
Um,
1147
00:27:05.729 --> 00:27:06.599
but we have all that in there,
1148
00:27:06.609 --> 00:27:07.010
plus,
1149
00:27:07.060 --> 00:27:07.410
um,
1150
00:27:07.530 --> 00:27:07.770
you know,
1151
00:27:07.880 --> 00:27:07.959
uh,
1152
00:27:08.329 --> 00:27:10.560
full-blown election models are in there and,
1153
00:27:10.569 --> 00:27:11.689
uh,
1154
00:27:11.930 --> 00:27:12.530
expert opinion.
1155
00:27:13.229 --> 00:27:16.130
And I bring that up because there's 3 main expert opinion
1156
00:27:16.589 --> 00:27:17.829
ratings agencies,
1157
00:27:17.869 --> 00:27:18.469
if you will.
1158
00:27:18.630 --> 00:27:19.910
Cook Political is one of them.
1159
00:27:19.989 --> 00:27:21.250
I can't think of the name of the second one,
1160
00:27:21.310 --> 00:27:23.650
but the third one is Sabato's Crystal Ball.
1161
00:27:23.989 --> 00:27:24.709
And what they do is they,
1162
00:27:24.829 --> 00:27:26.449
they kind of do what we just did with the Senate board.
1163
00:27:26.670 --> 00:27:26.979
They've got,
1164
00:27:26.989 --> 00:27:27.109
uh,
1165
00:27:27.189 --> 00:27:28.069
likely Democrat,
1166
00:27:28.189 --> 00:27:29.170
likely Republican,
1167
00:27:29.420 --> 00:27:30.189
lean Republican,
1168
00:27:30.270 --> 00:27:30.869
lean Democrat,
1169
00:27:31.020 --> 00:27:31.420
toss up,
1170
00:27:31.430 --> 00:27:32.640
all the different categories,
1171
00:27:32.829 --> 00:27:33.540
solid Republican,
1172
00:27:33.670 --> 00:27:34.329
solid Democrat,
1173
00:27:34.589 --> 00:27:37.530
and they move them around when they feel that the
1174
00:27:38.430 --> 00:27:40.949
information diet that they have consumed on this.
1175
00:27:42.170 --> 00:27:45.579
I uh appropriate to move them to a different category.
1176
00:27:46.579 --> 00:27:46.969
Um,
1177
00:27:47.150 --> 00:27:47.849
and I say that
1178
00:27:48.109 --> 00:27:48.469
because it's not,
1179
00:27:48.550 --> 00:27:49.869
they're not just looking at public polls,
1180
00:27:49.949 --> 00:27:51.579
they're not just looking at fundamentals.
1181
00:27:51.829 --> 00:27:54.459
They're also getting access to a lot of private polling,
1182
00:27:54.770 --> 00:27:56.869
a lot of campaign polling behind the scenes,
1183
00:27:56.949 --> 00:27:59.689
so they have more information a lot of times than you and I do.
1184
00:28:00.030 --> 00:28:00.150
Uh,
1185
00:28:00.229 --> 00:28:03.849
they are moving 16 House races toward Democrats,
1186
00:28:04.189 --> 00:28:04.349
uh,
1187
00:28:04.630 --> 00:28:05.050
today.
1188
00:28:05.790 --> 00:28:07.030
This has been pretty consistent.
1189
00:28:07.150 --> 00:28:10.530
They will leave stuff in the toss-up column a little bit longer.
1190
00:28:10.839 --> 00:28:10.869
Than,
1191
00:28:12.040 --> 00:28:12.199
uh,
1192
00:28:12.310 --> 00:28:12.479
you know,
1193
00:28:12.640 --> 00:28:14.119
some of the election modelers out there.
1194
00:28:14.199 --> 00:28:16.040
So these aren't racists necessarily that were
1195
00:28:16.199 --> 00:28:19.000
racists thought of like to be Republicans and now we're suddenly,
1196
00:28:19.079 --> 00:28:19.439
um,
1197
00:28:19.550 --> 00:28:20.020
uh,
1198
00:28:20.069 --> 00:28:20.459
Democrats,
1199
00:28:20.800 --> 00:28:20.920
uh,
1200
00:28:21.040 --> 00:28:25.020
but they are the movement has been really consistent as they've done this over,
1201
00:28:25.030 --> 00:28:25.310
uh,
1202
00:28:25.319 --> 00:28:26.099
several different,
1203
00:28:26.160 --> 00:28:26.280
uh,
1204
00:28:26.290 --> 00:28:27.819
ratings agencies.
1205
00:28:28.229 --> 00:28:28.550
Uh,
1206
00:28:28.689 --> 00:28:29.349
that is,
1207
00:28:29.359 --> 00:28:29.819
uh,
1208
00:28:29.839 --> 00:28:31.500
a couple of these that moved were,
1209
00:28:31.930 --> 00:28:32.619
um,
1210
00:28:33.380 --> 00:28:34.160
3 Senate races,
1211
00:28:34.239 --> 00:28:35.199
2 gubernatorial races.
1212
00:28:35.260 --> 00:28:36.229
Let me give you those because,
1213
00:28:36.300 --> 00:28:36.439
you know,
1214
00:28:36.510 --> 00:28:38.599
the Senate races or the House races are there's 2.
1215
00:28:39.180 --> 00:28:39.819
Uh,
1216
00:28:40.020 --> 00:28:40.260
too,
1217
00:28:40.500 --> 00:28:41.099
too many to name,
1218
00:28:41.180 --> 00:28:41.420
but
1219
00:28:41.569 --> 00:28:44.859
Florida Senate race moved from safe Republican to likely Republican,
1220
00:28:44.979 --> 00:28:45.300
so
1221
00:28:45.500 --> 00:28:46.709
that's the Ashley Moody race.
1222
00:28:46.780 --> 00:28:48.040
It kind of ticked a little bit
1223
00:28:48.260 --> 00:28:48.890
toward Democrats,
1224
00:28:48.900 --> 00:28:50.369
but still likely Republican.
1225
00:28:50.660 --> 00:28:53.119
Darlene Graham went from likely Republican
1226
00:28:53.300 --> 00:28:54.640
to lean Republican.
1227
00:28:54.739 --> 00:28:55.699
I've been telling you,
1228
00:28:55.780 --> 00:28:57.719
I've worried about that race for a while.
1229
00:28:58.569 --> 00:29:00.170
Not necessarily that she's gonna lose it,
1230
00:29:00.219 --> 00:29:02.839
but I'm very concerned that that it's gonna be very close.
1231
00:29:03.439 --> 00:29:04.319
There's just no
1232
00:29:04.699 --> 00:29:06.819
connection with Darlene Graham Nordone.
1233
00:29:06.900 --> 00:29:07.800
She's new on the scene.
1234
00:29:07.900 --> 00:29:08.619
She has not been,
1235
00:29:08.699 --> 00:29:09.150
I would say,
1236
00:29:09.180 --> 00:29:11.300
impressive in her public appearances,
1237
00:29:11.619 --> 00:29:12.420
and it's really like,
1238
00:29:12.459 --> 00:29:12.839
OK,
1239
00:29:13.060 --> 00:29:13.770
it's just
1240
00:29:13.979 --> 00:29:14.569
party name.
1241
00:29:14.699 --> 00:29:15.579
And I keep going back to this.
1242
00:29:15.739 --> 00:29:17.800
Like if I'm a Republican right now in one of these states,
1243
00:29:18.000 --> 00:29:19.739
all I'm talking about is control of the Senate.
1244
00:29:19.839 --> 00:29:21.439
I'm not talking about anything I'm gonna pass.
1245
00:29:21.579 --> 00:29:22.439
I'm not talking about anything.
1246
00:29:22.540 --> 00:29:23.439
All I'm trying to do is,
1247
00:29:23.449 --> 00:29:24.939
is scare Republican voters and be like,
1248
00:29:25.140 --> 00:29:28.040
you want Chuck Schumer on TV telling you what's going on every day?
1249
00:29:28.209 --> 00:29:28.800
Is that what you want?
1250
00:29:29.670 --> 00:29:30.489
Cause you can have that,
1251
00:29:30.540 --> 00:29:32.250
you might not like Darlene Graham Nordone,
1252
00:29:32.339 --> 00:29:33.739
you might not like Roger Marshall,
1253
00:29:33.819 --> 00:29:35.280
you might not like Ashley Hinson,
1254
00:29:35.540 --> 00:29:36.959
but regardless,
1255
00:29:37.819 --> 00:29:39.150
do you like Chuck Schumer?
1256
00:29:39.380 --> 00:29:41.439
And some of these races are going that direction
1257
00:29:41.439 --> 00:29:43.599
because it's all about control in those races.
1258
00:29:43.939 --> 00:29:44.420
Um.
1259
00:29:45.920 --> 00:29:47.469
North Carolina went from,
1260
00:29:47.479 --> 00:29:47.939
uh,
1261
00:29:47.949 --> 00:29:49.800
lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
1262
00:29:49.920 --> 00:29:50.040
Again,
1263
00:29:50.119 --> 00:29:51.959
that's a move that I had made months ago.
1264
00:29:52.040 --> 00:29:52.160
I mean,
1265
00:29:52.239 --> 00:29:52.400
I,
1266
00:29:52.479 --> 00:29:53.160
that's really just,
1267
00:29:53.239 --> 00:29:54.459
just not one of those things.
1268
00:29:54.719 --> 00:29:54.920
Um,
1269
00:29:55.000 --> 00:29:55.380
and then,
1270
00:29:55.420 --> 00:29:56.020
um,
1271
00:29:56.540 --> 00:29:56.900
uh,
1272
00:29:56.910 --> 00:29:57.430
a couple of,
1273
00:29:57.439 --> 00:29:57.550
uh,
1274
00:29:57.560 --> 00:29:59.520
gubernatorial races as well.
1275
00:29:59.880 --> 00:30:03.079
Katie Hobbs goes from lean Democratic to likely Democratic.
1276
00:30:03.439 --> 00:30:03.839
One,
1277
00:30:04.880 --> 00:30:06.530
another one that's been under the radar,
1278
00:30:06.680 --> 00:30:08.439
and I have a small position against this,
1279
00:30:08.520 --> 00:30:10.310
I kind of guarding against a real blue,
1280
00:30:10.319 --> 00:30:10.520
uh,
1281
00:30:10.589 --> 00:30:11.540
tsunami or whatever,
1282
00:30:11.920 --> 00:30:12.599
but in Vermont,
1283
00:30:12.760 --> 00:30:13.560
Phil Scott.
1284
00:30:13.989 --> 00:30:14.189
Uh,
1285
00:30:14.650 --> 00:30:14.920
Republican,
1286
00:30:15.130 --> 00:30:17.310
and you didn't know that it's a Republican governor of Vermont,
1287
00:30:17.439 --> 00:30:18.270
moderate guy,
1288
00:30:18.400 --> 00:30:19.400
been there for a long time,
1289
00:30:19.520 --> 00:30:19.640
very,
1290
00:30:19.739 --> 00:30:20.459
very popular,
1291
00:30:20.920 --> 00:30:21.069
uh,
1292
00:30:21.119 --> 00:30:22.949
in the state and usually wins easily.
1293
00:30:23.160 --> 00:30:24.119
That race looks closer.
1294
00:30:24.199 --> 00:30:25.760
I still think he probably holds on to it,
1295
00:30:25.839 --> 00:30:27.060
but it looks closer than,
1296
00:30:27.089 --> 00:30:27.390
uh,
1297
00:30:27.400 --> 00:30:27.800
believed.
1298
00:30:28.040 --> 00:30:29.109
That went from likely,
1299
00:30:29.119 --> 00:30:29.540
uh,
1300
00:30:29.550 --> 00:30:30.079
uh,
1301
00:30:30.089 --> 00:30:31.979
Republican to lean Republican,
1302
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:33.630
and I think that's pretty much it.
1303
00:30:33.680 --> 00:30:33.800
OK,
1304
00:30:33.880 --> 00:30:34.479
so I named all that.
1305
00:30:34.560 --> 00:30:34.979
Um,
1306
00:30:35.329 --> 00:30:35.680
another,
1307
00:30:35.760 --> 00:30:36.380
uh,
1308
00:30:36.579 --> 00:30:37.599
another situation.
1309
00:30:38.989 --> 00:30:40.650
Is a poll from Sienna,
1310
00:30:41.030 --> 00:30:41.589
one of the highly,
1311
00:30:41.680 --> 00:30:43.030
higher rated pollsters.
1312
00:30:43.069 --> 00:30:44.510
They do work with The New York Times.
1313
00:30:44.790 --> 00:30:44.989
Again,
1314
00:30:45.069 --> 00:30:47.550
they've been kind of all over the map over the past couple of polls,
1315
00:30:47.609 --> 00:30:48.160
um,
1316
00:30:48.510 --> 00:30:49.489
and they,
1317
00:30:50.410 --> 00:30:50.420
they,
1318
00:30:50.670 --> 00:30:51.109
their,
1319
00:30:51.390 --> 00:30:52.810
their process is usually pretty good.
1320
00:30:53.069 --> 00:30:54.310
Sometimes those results are all over the place,
1321
00:30:54.390 --> 00:30:54.630
and they,
1322
00:30:54.709 --> 00:30:57.270
I think that we have maybe the biggest outlier
1323
00:30:57.510 --> 00:30:59.869
poll that I've seen in this entire cycle,
1324
00:31:00.199 --> 00:31:00.339
uh,
1325
00:31:00.420 --> 00:31:01.790
in this particular batch.
1326
00:31:01.910 --> 00:31:02.020
Uh,
1327
00:31:02.069 --> 00:31:05.219
what our new Senate poll tells us about the state of the midterms,
1328
00:31:05.390 --> 00:31:06.270
3 races.
1329
00:31:06.949 --> 00:31:09.589
One is that South Carolina race that I've been talking about forever.
1330
00:31:09.650 --> 00:31:12.770
I've reduced my position probably by 70% in that race
1331
00:31:13.150 --> 00:31:14.869
because I think it's very unsure at this point.
1332
00:31:15.229 --> 00:31:15.540
And,
1333
00:31:15.550 --> 00:31:15.739
uh,
1334
00:31:15.790 --> 00:31:18.510
it is a tie between Annie Andrews and,
1335
00:31:18.589 --> 00:31:18.859
uh,
1336
00:31:18.869 --> 00:31:19.949
Darlene Graham Nordone.
1337
00:31:20.069 --> 00:31:20.219
Now,
1338
00:31:20.270 --> 00:31:20.689
I
1339
00:31:20.989 --> 00:31:21.359
don't,
1340
00:31:21.510 --> 00:31:24.180
I've never believed the South Carolina polls before.
1341
00:31:24.300 --> 00:31:26.910
I don't necessarily believe Graham's going to lose here,
1342
00:31:27.430 --> 00:31:27.780
but
1343
00:31:27.949 --> 00:31:29.050
it's too close for comfort,
1344
00:31:29.060 --> 00:31:30.189
and I don't want anything like that.
1345
00:31:30.270 --> 00:31:31.390
I don't wanna get out of that stuff.
1346
00:31:31.469 --> 00:31:31.750
So I,
1347
00:31:31.839 --> 00:31:32.680
most of that stuff I,
1348
00:31:32.910 --> 00:31:33.140
I'm,
1349
00:31:33.150 --> 00:31:33.339
uh,
1350
00:31:33.349 --> 00:31:34.209
out of already.
1351
00:31:34.430 --> 00:31:34.619
Uh,
1352
00:31:34.750 --> 00:31:35.229
Florida,
1353
00:31:35.310 --> 00:31:35.540
uh,
1354
00:31:35.550 --> 00:31:37.300
Ashley Moody holding a significant lead,
1355
00:31:37.349 --> 00:31:39.140
50 to 44 in that race.
1356
00:31:39.219 --> 00:31:39.349
This,
1357
00:31:39.430 --> 00:31:40.829
the outlier though is Minnesota.
1358
00:31:41.439 --> 00:31:41.869
Now,
1359
00:31:42.160 --> 00:31:44.540
Michelle Tafoya has been incredibly
1360
00:31:44.719 --> 00:31:46.670
competitive in the polling there.
1361
00:31:47.119 --> 00:31:49.229
She's running as kind of like a moderate,
1362
00:31:49.359 --> 00:31:50.869
and she even says over and over again,
1363
00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:52.459
a pro-choice Republican
1364
00:31:52.800 --> 00:31:53.439
in Minnesota.
1365
00:31:53.520 --> 00:31:53.839
I don't know,
1366
00:31:53.920 --> 00:31:54.839
maybe that's what you have to,
1367
00:31:55.000 --> 00:31:56.739
you have to be to win in Minnesota these days.
1368
00:31:56.800 --> 00:31:57.359
I don't know.
1369
00:31:57.599 --> 00:31:57.880
Of course,
1370
00:31:58.000 --> 00:31:58.160
you know,
1371
00:31:58.199 --> 00:31:58.920
that's not my,
1372
00:31:59.079 --> 00:31:59.900
not my position,
1373
00:32:00.150 --> 00:32:00.400
um,
1374
00:32:00.520 --> 00:32:02.420
but she is a very good communicator.
1375
00:32:02.699 --> 00:32:03.099
Um,
1376
00:32:03.219 --> 00:32:04.420
she's good on television,
1377
00:32:04.540 --> 00:32:05.760
she's good in interviews,
1378
00:32:06.060 --> 00:32:06.520
and,
1379
00:32:06.560 --> 00:32:07.199
uh,
1380
00:32:07.290 --> 00:32:10.359
and Peggy Flanagan is really weird looking.
1381
00:32:10.540 --> 00:32:10.699
Uh,
1382
00:32:10.939 --> 00:32:11.180
she's,
1383
00:32:11.459 --> 00:32:11.579
I mean,
1384
00:32:11.650 --> 00:32:11.859
I just mean,
1385
00:32:12.020 --> 00:32:13.290
I don't mean that from her face or anything.
1386
00:32:13.380 --> 00:32:14.900
She's just a strange dresser.
1387
00:32:15.829 --> 00:32:16.979
Her sense of style is odd.
1388
00:32:17.170 --> 00:32:18.380
She's an oddball in that way,
1389
00:32:18.540 --> 00:32:20.410
and her presentation's a little bit oddball.
1390
00:32:20.619 --> 00:32:21.130
She's very,
1391
00:32:21.219 --> 00:32:21.859
very progressive.
1392
00:32:21.979 --> 00:32:24.099
She's kind of like an Abdul El Sayed.
1393
00:32:24.449 --> 00:32:26.560
And that she's uh basically a socialist.
1394
00:32:26.849 --> 00:32:27.140
Um,
1395
00:32:27.260 --> 00:32:30.180
and Minnesota is a purple state that leans blue,
1396
00:32:30.579 --> 00:32:32.079
but not necessarily a,
1397
00:32:32.300 --> 00:32:32.410
a,
1398
00:32:32.489 --> 00:32:35.339
a blue state that you would see embracing a,
1399
00:32:35.420 --> 00:32:36.439
a DSA member.
1400
00:32:36.859 --> 00:32:37.010
Um,
1401
00:32:37.020 --> 00:32:38.660
that's essentially what Peggy Flanagan is.
1402
00:32:38.739 --> 00:32:39.040
So,
1403
00:32:39.140 --> 00:32:39.880
that race has been very,
1404
00:32:40.020 --> 00:32:40.729
very tight.
1405
00:32:40.780 --> 00:32:42.219
Can you bring up that last graphic one more time?
1406
00:32:42.339 --> 00:32:43.599
Look at where they have it now.
1407
00:32:43.959 --> 00:32:44.560
This is a,
1408
00:32:44.599 --> 00:32:44.750
uh,
1409
00:32:44.790 --> 00:32:45.560
a race where,
1410
00:32:45.640 --> 00:32:45.989
um,
1411
00:32:46.160 --> 00:32:46.660
you're saying,
1412
00:32:46.920 --> 00:32:47.189
uh,
1413
00:32:47.199 --> 00:32:48.599
54 to 40,
1414
00:32:48.640 --> 00:32:50.550
a 14-point lead.
1415
00:32:50.800 --> 00:32:53.060
There has been no other polling that has shown
1416
00:32:53.400 --> 00:32:54.619
anything like this in this race.
1417
00:32:55.010 --> 00:32:55.239
And,
1418
00:32:55.319 --> 00:32:55.800
and by the way,
1419
00:32:55.910 --> 00:32:56.040
you know,
1420
00:32:56.160 --> 00:32:56.540
I'll give,
1421
00:32:56.640 --> 00:32:56.920
uh,
1422
00:32:56.930 --> 00:32:57.619
New York Times,
1423
00:32:57.630 --> 00:32:57.790
uh,
1424
00:32:57.800 --> 00:32:58.660
some credit on this.
1425
00:32:58.680 --> 00:32:59.560
In their write-up about it,
1426
00:32:59.670 --> 00:33:00.680
they acknowledge this.
1427
00:33:00.760 --> 00:33:01.260
They say,
1428
00:33:01.520 --> 00:33:03.920
we are way out of the mainstream on this one.
1429
00:33:04.869 --> 00:33:08.819
What you want from a pollster is someone that when they come up with those results,
1430
00:33:08.910 --> 00:33:10.209
to still publish them.
1431
00:33:10.510 --> 00:33:11.910
If you have an outlier and you're saying,
1432
00:33:12.030 --> 00:33:12.229
gosh,
1433
00:33:12.310 --> 00:33:12.829
this is really,
1434
00:33:12.910 --> 00:33:13.270
really weird,
1435
00:33:13.339 --> 00:33:14.310
it does not line up,
1436
00:33:14.510 --> 00:33:17.099
you don't want them changing their results so they're not embarrassed.
1437
00:33:17.260 --> 00:33:18.670
You want them telling the story of their data.
1438
00:33:18.750 --> 00:33:20.109
So I give them credit for releasing this,
1439
00:33:20.150 --> 00:33:22.449
even though it might be a very embarrassing result
1440
00:33:22.670 --> 00:33:23.319
at the end.
1441
00:33:23.510 --> 00:33:23.910
But who knows,
1442
00:33:23.979 --> 00:33:25.109
maybe they picked up on something.
1443
00:33:25.270 --> 00:33:25.650
I mean,
1444
00:33:25.869 --> 00:33:26.069
if you,
1445
00:33:26.160 --> 00:33:28.069
if I would have told you in this environment,
1446
00:33:28.449 --> 00:33:32.410
A replacement level Democratic against a replacement level Republican.
1447
00:33:32.650 --> 00:33:33.739
A 10 to 14,
1448
00:33:33.849 --> 00:33:36.540
maybe even 14 point victory would not surprise me,
1449
00:33:37.010 --> 00:33:38.329
because we are in a Democratic,
1450
00:33:38.410 --> 00:33:39.849
a blue leaning environment.
1451
00:33:40.770 --> 00:33:42.630
It's just that this race has held out
1452
00:33:42.890 --> 00:33:44.280
from that the entire time.
1453
00:33:44.680 --> 00:33:47.790
The two places we've seen where in races that
1454
00:33:47.800 --> 00:33:49.910
you would just think you could just tick off
1455
00:33:50.209 --> 00:33:52.229
knowing who's gonna win immediately was this race,
1456
00:33:52.609 --> 00:33:53.650
because a blue state,
1457
00:33:53.890 --> 00:33:54.010
uh,
1458
00:33:54.089 --> 00:33:54.209
you know,
1459
00:33:54.290 --> 00:33:55.790
bluish leaning purple state,
1460
00:33:56.050 --> 00:33:56.689
and a,
1461
00:33:56.770 --> 00:33:57.089
uh,
1462
00:33:57.109 --> 00:33:57.119
uh,
1463
00:33:57.130 --> 00:33:57.390
um,
1464
00:33:57.400 --> 00:33:58.270
and in this environment,
1465
00:33:58.369 --> 00:34:00.250
you'd say Democrats winning that race easily.
1466
00:34:00.329 --> 00:34:02.510
It's one of the reasons why I have a decent position
1467
00:34:02.810 --> 00:34:05.510
on Amy Klobuchar to win that gubernatorial race
1468
00:34:05.650 --> 00:34:06.449
relatively easily,
1469
00:34:06.530 --> 00:34:08.389
even though the polling's hung somewhat close.
1470
00:34:09.080 --> 00:34:11.100
I just think that's the way that's gonna go,
1471
00:34:11.478 --> 00:34:11.790
um,
1472
00:34:12.080 --> 00:34:15.350
and I also have a position on Tina Kotak in Oregon,
1473
00:34:15.438 --> 00:34:18.458
which has been the other one that has not moved the direction
1474
00:34:19.040 --> 00:34:20.188
that I would have assumed,
1475
00:34:20.280 --> 00:34:20.800
honestly,
1476
00:34:20.889 --> 00:34:21.030
uh,
1477
00:34:21.120 --> 00:34:21.830
those two races.
1478
00:34:21.989 --> 00:34:24.580
Part of that is explained by something that we released
1479
00:34:24.879 --> 00:34:27.478
a few weeks ago called the Republican Freak Out Index,
1480
00:34:27.560 --> 00:34:27.899
and
1481
00:34:28.360 --> 00:34:31.300
what that basically tells you is where have
1482
00:34:31.679 --> 00:34:32.219
the,
1483
00:34:32.280 --> 00:34:32.590
uh,
1484
00:34:32.600 --> 00:34:34.100
underlying
1485
00:34:35.320 --> 00:34:37.438
forces that are moving this election.
1486
00:34:38.399 --> 00:34:39.320
Where are they move,
1487
00:34:39.600 --> 00:34:41.260
like where are they affecting,
1488
00:34:41.320 --> 00:34:41.760
um,
1489
00:34:41.820 --> 00:34:42.360
uh,
1490
00:34:42.560 --> 00:34:43.500
voters most?
1491
00:34:44.040 --> 00:34:46.199
What we see is in places like Texas,
1492
00:34:46.360 --> 00:34:47.179
like Michigan,
1493
00:34:47.800 --> 00:34:49.020
the negative,
1494
00:34:49.168 --> 00:34:49.228
uh,
1495
00:34:49.250 --> 00:34:50.270
effects for Republicans,
1496
00:34:50.360 --> 00:34:51.149
and we're talking about,
1497
00:34:51.159 --> 00:34:51.620
um,
1498
00:34:51.760 --> 00:34:52.070
uh,
1499
00:34:52.080 --> 00:34:52.418
oil,
1500
00:34:52.600 --> 00:34:53.438
gas prices,
1501
00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:54.679
diesel prices,
1502
00:34:54.850 --> 00:34:55.659
uh,
1503
00:34:55.679 --> 00:34:56.780
effects of tariffs,
1504
00:34:57.120 --> 00:34:57.280
um,
1505
00:34:57.399 --> 00:34:59.739
and then other demographic features like,
1506
00:34:59.760 --> 00:35:00.459
um,
1507
00:35:00.639 --> 00:35:01.520
fewer older voters,
1508
00:35:01.719 --> 00:35:02.899
more younger voters,
1509
00:35:03.080 --> 00:35:03.189
uh,
1510
00:35:03.239 --> 00:35:04.300
more Hispanic voters,
1511
00:35:04.560 --> 00:35:05.580
where are those hitting most?
1512
00:35:05.915 --> 00:35:08.074
Number 1 on the list was Texas for the biggest impact.
1513
00:35:08.185 --> 00:35:09.415
Number 2 was Michigan.
1514
00:35:09.635 --> 00:35:10.735
Iowa was near the top.
1515
00:35:11.074 --> 00:35:13.114
Near the bottom though was Minnesota and Oregon.
1516
00:35:13.314 --> 00:35:15.695
Like they just haven't been hit by these factors as much as,
1517
00:35:15.915 --> 00:35:16.754
as some of these other states,
1518
00:35:16.834 --> 00:35:18.004
so they're not as angry
1519
00:35:18.235 --> 00:35:20.574
as you might think against Republicans generally.
1520
00:35:20.834 --> 00:35:20.955
Uh,
1521
00:35:20.995 --> 00:35:22.395
here's what these markets look like right now,
1522
00:35:22.514 --> 00:35:22.754
by the way,
1523
00:35:22.854 --> 00:35:23.635
Ashley Moody.
1524
00:35:23.889 --> 00:35:24.209
Um,
1525
00:35:24.330 --> 00:35:25.320
her 6 point lead,
1526
00:35:25.530 --> 00:35:25.649
uh,
1527
00:35:25.770 --> 00:35:26.770
keeping her pretty consistent,
1528
00:35:26.879 --> 00:35:28.290
around an 89% favorite.
1529
00:35:28.590 --> 00:35:31.449
Florida was also pretty low on the Republican freak out index,
1530
00:35:31.560 --> 00:35:34.169
and it's one of the reasons why I have a big position on Moody
1531
00:35:34.370 --> 00:35:35.969
and a building position on Donald's.
1532
00:35:36.050 --> 00:35:36.419
He's a,
1533
00:35:36.649 --> 00:35:37.530
Donald's is the governor,
1534
00:35:37.639 --> 00:35:37.810
uh,
1535
00:35:37.919 --> 00:35:39.600
gubernatorial candidate there.
1536
00:35:39.929 --> 00:35:40.449
Moody got,
1537
00:35:40.530 --> 00:35:41.689
not only is she a strong candidate,
1538
00:35:41.770 --> 00:35:44.090
she drew a weak candidate in Nixon.
1539
00:35:44.489 --> 00:35:45.879
So she's more of a heavy favorite.
1540
00:35:46.020 --> 00:35:47.550
Donald's is around an 80,
1541
00:35:47.649 --> 00:35:48.169
75,
1542
00:35:48.250 --> 00:35:49.870
80% favorite in this race,
1543
00:35:50.169 --> 00:35:50.560
um,
1544
00:35:50.889 --> 00:35:51.290
against,
1545
00:35:51.370 --> 00:35:52.070
uh,
1546
00:35:52.090 --> 00:35:52.590
Jolly,
1547
00:35:52.729 --> 00:35:53.929
who is more of a,
1548
00:35:53.979 --> 00:35:54.169
uh,
1549
00:35:54.250 --> 00:35:54.520
you know,
1550
00:35:54.919 --> 00:35:56.129
supposedly a moderate Democrat.
1551
00:35:56.199 --> 00:35:57.350
We've seen that pitch before.
1552
00:35:57.600 --> 00:35:58.479
In South Carolina,
1553
00:35:58.560 --> 00:36:00.409
this is narrowing in a significant way.
1554
00:36:00.489 --> 00:36:01.010
I mean,
1555
00:36:01.449 --> 00:36:02.510
if you would have told me,
1556
00:36:03.050 --> 00:36:03.209
you know,
1557
00:36:03.290 --> 00:36:06.030
6 months ago that I could have gotten a gram.
1558
00:36:06.449 --> 00:36:08.419
At 71% in South Carolina,
1559
00:36:08.459 --> 00:36:10.199
I would have been loading up on shares.
1560
00:36:10.399 --> 00:36:11.449
It's a different Graham.
1561
00:36:11.659 --> 00:36:12.340
The first Graham,
1562
00:36:12.419 --> 00:36:12.570
uh,
1563
00:36:12.659 --> 00:36:13.639
no longer with us.
1564
00:36:14.020 --> 00:36:14.860
The second Graham,
1565
00:36:15.179 --> 00:36:17.120
not all that impressive of a candidate.
1566
00:36:17.419 --> 00:36:18.570
And Annie Andrews,
1567
00:36:18.899 --> 00:36:20.879
I don't think she's a great candidate either,
1568
00:36:21.139 --> 00:36:24.979
but she is rising in the polls up to a 29% chance to win that race.
1569
00:36:25.050 --> 00:36:25.379
And finally,
1570
00:36:25.459 --> 00:36:26.239
Minnesota,
1571
00:36:26.570 --> 00:36:26.820
um,
1572
00:36:26.979 --> 00:36:27.100
you know,
1573
00:36:27.179 --> 00:36:29.250
this has been one of the favorite picks of Republicans who were like,
1574
00:36:29.340 --> 00:36:29.419
hey,
1575
00:36:29.649 --> 00:36:31.239
well maybe we're gonna have a better year than you think.
1576
00:36:31.810 --> 00:36:32.100
If you,
1577
00:36:32.179 --> 00:36:32.310
you know,
1578
00:36:32.419 --> 00:36:32.530
this,
1579
00:36:32.580 --> 00:36:33.939
I see this in the Senate Fantasy League a lot,
1580
00:36:33.979 --> 00:36:35.560
a lot of people picking this race because
1581
00:36:35.780 --> 00:36:38.260
you can get all shares on Michelle Tafoya very cheaply,
1582
00:36:38.300 --> 00:36:41.020
and she's very competitive in these polls with the exception of this last one.
1583
00:36:41.219 --> 00:36:42.439
Here's what that last one looks like.
1584
00:36:43.060 --> 00:36:43.370
Uh,
1585
00:36:43.580 --> 00:36:44.179
Michelle Tafoya,
1586
00:36:44.260 --> 00:36:45.179
after that poll released,
1587
00:36:45.379 --> 00:36:46.479
dropping from about
1588
00:36:47.020 --> 00:36:47.750
14,
1589
00:36:47.760 --> 00:36:50.139
15% chance to win down to 10%.
1590
00:36:50.500 --> 00:36:51.300
So you can get her at,
1591
00:36:51.459 --> 00:36:51.810
you know,
1592
00:36:52.020 --> 00:36:53.260
you're talking about 9 to 1%
1593
00:36:53.459 --> 00:36:53.860
profit.
1594
00:36:54.260 --> 00:36:54.580
Right now,
1595
00:36:54.620 --> 00:36:56.120
if you think Tafoya has a chance,
1596
00:36:56.500 --> 00:36:59.679
the projections from Calci are about 7.6 points
1597
00:36:59.979 --> 00:37:00.419
victory,
1598
00:37:00.459 --> 00:37:02.199
a 7.6 point victory for,
1599
00:37:02.560 --> 00:37:02.979
um,
1600
00:37:03.149 --> 00:37:03.540
uh,
1601
00:37:03.550 --> 00:37:04.520
for Flanagan.
1602
00:37:04.979 --> 00:37:05.620
But again,
1603
00:37:05.699 --> 00:37:08.500
polling generally speaking has not shown that.
1604
00:37:08.850 --> 00:37:10.250
Perhaps the Sienna poll is right,
1605
00:37:10.320 --> 00:37:12.679
but that is a big departure from what we've seen so far.
1606
00:37:12.939 --> 00:37:13.209
OK,
1607
00:37:13.560 --> 00:37:13.780
gotta take it,
1608
00:37:14.030 --> 00:37:14.179
I look,
1609
00:37:14.219 --> 00:37:14.620
I've been,
1610
00:37:14.800 --> 00:37:14.810
I,
1611
00:37:14.929 --> 00:37:16.100
I've been talking about the guys behind the scene.
1612
00:37:16.139 --> 00:37:17.659
We have all these different things that we're gonna be doing,
1613
00:37:17.939 --> 00:37:21.080
tons of stuff that is not election related once the election's over.
1614
00:37:21.689 --> 00:37:23.570
My thought process though is to just be like,
1615
00:37:23.639 --> 00:37:24.050
look,
1616
00:37:24.330 --> 00:37:25.330
it's election time.
1617
00:37:25.649 --> 00:37:26.070
Let's
1618
00:37:26.290 --> 00:37:28.770
double and triple down on all the information we're giving people.
1619
00:37:28.810 --> 00:37:30.070
This is what people care about
1620
00:37:30.239 --> 00:37:31.389
right now for the next few days.
1621
00:37:31.850 --> 00:37:35.010
We're gonna overload you with election stuff until the election's over,
1622
00:37:35.250 --> 00:37:37.129
and then we're gonna start transitioning to tons of other
1623
00:37:37.129 --> 00:37:39.320
really fun stuff that you can do on prediction markets.
1624
00:37:39.439 --> 00:37:40.010
Everything from,
1625
00:37:40.199 --> 00:37:40.290
you know,
1626
00:37:40.409 --> 00:37:41.169
Supreme Court decisions.
1627
00:37:41.510 --> 00:37:41.709
To,
1628
00:37:41.750 --> 00:37:42.139
uh,
1629
00:37:42.149 --> 00:37:43.189
culture markets,
1630
00:37:43.439 --> 00:37:43.590
uh,
1631
00:37:43.629 --> 00:37:44.310
sports markets,
1632
00:37:44.320 --> 00:37:45.340
and so many other things.
1633
00:37:45.550 --> 00:37:47.510
We'll get to more of those after the election.
1634
00:37:47.550 --> 00:37:49.179
I do have one though that I wanna
1635
00:37:49.469 --> 00:37:50.939
kind of wet your whistle with a little bit
1636
00:37:51.229 --> 00:37:51.510
here,
1637
00:37:51.590 --> 00:37:51.790
uh,
1638
00:37:51.870 --> 00:37:52.370
on,
1639
00:37:52.479 --> 00:37:52.979
um,
1640
00:37:53.149 --> 00:37:53.419
uh,
1641
00:37:53.429 --> 00:37:54.590
in the culture world.
1642
00:37:54.820 --> 00:37:57.010
This actually comes from my producer who's a nerd,
1643
00:37:57.350 --> 00:37:57.659
um,
1644
00:37:57.790 --> 00:37:59.260
and he's going to
1645
00:37:59.550 --> 00:38:02.169
tell you what his nerdy opinion is on an upcoming,
1646
00:38:02.189 --> 00:38:02.459
uh,
1647
00:38:02.469 --> 00:38:02.820
movie,
1648
00:38:02.830 --> 00:38:04.189
which there might be an opportunity for you
1649
00:38:04.189 --> 00:38:06.570
to make a little money on investment markets
1650
00:38:06.790 --> 00:38:07.479
and predictions.
1651
00:38:07.590 --> 00:38:09.530
So we'll get to that coming up next.
1652
00:38:24.560 --> 00:38:25.310
You know,
1653
00:38:25.909 --> 00:38:26.169
it's time,
1654
00:38:27.169 --> 00:38:30.379
it's time for another episode of here's one my producer kinda likes,
1655
00:38:30.719 --> 00:38:31.790
a segment where I,
1656
00:38:31.840 --> 00:38:32.229
uh,
1657
00:38:32.239 --> 00:38:32.739
go through,
1658
00:38:32.840 --> 00:38:33.189
uh,
1659
00:38:33.199 --> 00:38:35.459
something that my producer has pitched me because
1660
00:38:35.879 --> 00:38:38.580
this is one of the great things about prediction markets as an investment.
1661
00:38:39.040 --> 00:38:39.429
Um,
1662
00:38:39.520 --> 00:38:40.219
you,
1663
00:38:40.679 --> 00:38:41.899
it's funny because like,
1664
00:38:42.600 --> 00:38:45.449
You don't need to be a great trader to do well on prediction markets.
1665
00:38:45.489 --> 00:38:48.330
You just need to have like a real deep interest in something,
1666
00:38:48.709 --> 00:38:49.340
something weird,
1667
00:38:49.489 --> 00:38:51.149
something unique to yourself.
1668
00:38:51.530 --> 00:38:52.330
And like I,
1669
00:38:52.449 --> 00:38:52.689
uh,
1670
00:38:52.770 --> 00:38:52.929
you know,
1671
00:38:53.010 --> 00:38:53.770
I love sports.
1672
00:38:53.850 --> 00:38:54.729
I follow that closely.
1673
00:38:54.770 --> 00:38:54.929
I,
1674
00:38:54.959 --> 00:38:56.080
I follow elections closely,
1675
00:38:56.090 --> 00:38:56.429
obviously.
1676
00:38:56.510 --> 00:38:57.840
There's a bunch of that stuff that I do,
1677
00:38:58.050 --> 00:38:59.479
and then I have some weird stuff that I,
1678
00:38:59.530 --> 00:39:00.709
that I'm interested in as well.
1679
00:39:01.060 --> 00:39:01.070
Uh,
1680
00:39:01.580 --> 00:39:03.709
but it's a there's no crossover,
1681
00:39:03.840 --> 00:39:04.010
uh,
1682
00:39:04.020 --> 00:39:06.399
as to what I have and what Adam has,
1683
00:39:06.620 --> 00:39:09.639
which is this really nerdy pop culture stuff.
1684
00:39:10.129 --> 00:39:11.939
A lot of times I'm not even aware that it's occurring,
1685
00:39:12.139 --> 00:39:12.479
including
1686
00:39:12.699 --> 00:39:14.040
the movie Whale Fall
1687
00:39:14.340 --> 00:39:16.770
about a guy who is ingested inside of a whale.
1688
00:39:16.979 --> 00:39:17.899
He gave us a segment on that,
1689
00:39:17.959 --> 00:39:18.310
but which,
1690
00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:18.620
by the way,
1691
00:39:18.699 --> 00:39:19.040
hit.
1692
00:39:19.330 --> 00:39:19.540
He was,
1693
00:39:19.780 --> 00:39:20.340
we won,
1694
00:39:20.379 --> 00:39:20.659
if you,
1695
00:39:20.739 --> 00:39:21.010
you,
1696
00:39:21.260 --> 00:39:23.010
you made some money off of that one last time and I'm like,
1697
00:39:23.060 --> 00:39:23.179
well,
1698
00:39:23.300 --> 00:39:24.929
keep bringing these to me because I wanna know them.
1699
00:39:25.000 --> 00:39:25.280
So,
1700
00:39:25.500 --> 00:39:25.820
I,
1701
00:39:26.060 --> 00:39:27.500
this is his pitch and I love it.
1702
00:39:28.590 --> 00:39:30.370
Godzilla 0,
1703
00:39:30.830 --> 00:39:32.610
director Takashi Yamazaki
1704
00:39:33.030 --> 00:39:37.330
credits James Cameron's Aliens and Terminator 2 for inspiring beefed up sequel.
1705
00:39:37.510 --> 00:39:37.810
Now,
1706
00:39:41.110 --> 00:39:41.389
Look,
1707
00:39:41.510 --> 00:39:41.780
I got,
1708
00:39:41.870 --> 00:39:42.030
I,
1709
00:39:42.149 --> 00:39:46.870
I'm in the minority here and that I watched Godzilla -1 and I was like,
1710
00:39:46.949 --> 00:39:47.229
you know,
1711
00:39:47.330 --> 00:39:47.550
um,
1712
00:39:47.629 --> 00:39:47.969
it was
1713
00:39:48.379 --> 00:39:48.770
good,
1714
00:39:48.949 --> 00:39:49.310
um,
1715
00:39:49.510 --> 00:39:49.790
you know,
1716
00:39:49.870 --> 00:39:50.030
I,
1717
00:39:50.510 --> 00:39:52.219
I didn't think it was like the greatest movie of all time.
1718
00:39:52.310 --> 00:39:53.469
Apparently most people do.
1719
00:39:53.629 --> 00:39:54.649
I mean that's what I'm told.
1720
00:39:55.030 --> 00:39:55.389
In fact,
1721
00:39:55.469 --> 00:39:55.620
uh,
1722
00:39:55.669 --> 00:39:55.780
it,
1723
00:39:55.860 --> 00:39:59.810
it does seem to be one of the highest rated movies ever on Rotten Tomatoes.
1724
00:40:00.229 --> 00:40:00.540
Um,
1725
00:40:00.750 --> 00:40:03.020
Godzilla 0 is the sequel.
1726
00:40:03.419 --> 00:40:05.760
The naming convention of these movies we'll get to in a minute.
1727
00:40:06.030 --> 00:40:07.649
It's the most insane thing I've ever heard.
1728
00:40:08.219 --> 00:40:09.419
And there is a market on this.
1729
00:40:09.500 --> 00:40:09.580
Now,
1730
00:40:09.620 --> 00:40:10.989
if you don't know the backstory of this.
1731
00:40:11.679 --> 00:40:12.040
Um,
1732
00:40:12.239 --> 00:40:14.340
in the Dodd-Frank bill.
1733
00:40:15.530 --> 00:40:17.360
Some Hollywood friend was like,
1734
00:40:17.489 --> 00:40:18.629
you can't put
1735
00:40:19.169 --> 00:40:21.850
box office receipts on prediction markets.
1736
00:40:21.969 --> 00:40:23.889
I don't know why they stuck it in this bill,
1737
00:40:24.169 --> 00:40:25.810
but they did it way back in the day,
1738
00:40:25.929 --> 00:40:26.629
so you can't
1739
00:40:26.889 --> 00:40:28.209
put in the United States at least,
1740
00:40:28.330 --> 00:40:28.860
can't use,
1741
00:40:28.929 --> 00:40:29.050
uh,
1742
00:40:29.129 --> 00:40:30.550
you can't go on prediction markets
1743
00:40:30.850 --> 00:40:31.080
to,
1744
00:40:31.090 --> 00:40:31.600
uh,
1745
00:40:31.610 --> 00:40:32.280
invest in the,
1746
00:40:32.290 --> 00:40:32.530
uh,
1747
00:40:32.540 --> 00:40:33.649
box office outcomes to,
1748
00:40:33.729 --> 00:40:34.090
to say,
1749
00:40:34.209 --> 00:40:34.379
you know,
1750
00:40:34.459 --> 00:40:35.449
who's gonna make more money.
1751
00:40:35.729 --> 00:40:36.379
What you can do,
1752
00:40:36.479 --> 00:40:37.030
however,
1753
00:40:37.560 --> 00:40:39.449
is go on the Rotten Tomatoes score.
1754
00:40:39.530 --> 00:40:44.070
What will the Rotten Tomatoes score be for Godzilla 0?
1755
00:40:44.800 --> 00:40:44.919
Uh,
1756
00:40:45.030 --> 00:40:45.750
here's the market.
1757
00:40:45.870 --> 00:40:46.040
Uh,
1758
00:40:46.159 --> 00:40:47.560
and you can go through all these different prices.
1759
00:40:47.639 --> 00:40:47.830
Now,
1760
00:40:47.959 --> 00:40:48.899
I will tell you,
1761
00:40:49.300 --> 00:40:51.320
in preparation for this day,
1762
00:40:51.679 --> 00:40:51.979
uh,
1763
00:40:52.159 --> 00:40:52.899
this morning,
1764
00:40:53.179 --> 00:40:53.320
uh,
1765
00:40:53.439 --> 00:40:54.959
Adam pitched this segment and he said,
1766
00:40:55.080 --> 00:40:56.620
I think this is gonna be,
1767
00:40:57.120 --> 00:40:57.520
at the time,
1768
00:40:57.560 --> 00:41:00.600
it was projected to be at 95.3% on Rotten Tomatoes.
1769
00:41:00.679 --> 00:41:01.270
Very good,
1770
00:41:01.479 --> 00:41:02.580
not as good as the original.
1771
00:41:03.270 --> 00:41:03.729
Um,
1772
00:41:03.909 --> 00:41:04.330
Adam
1773
00:41:04.830 --> 00:41:05.120
projected,
1774
00:41:05.270 --> 00:41:05.429
he,
1775
00:41:05.510 --> 00:41:06.250
he pitched that,
1776
00:41:06.290 --> 00:41:07.270
and since then,
1777
00:41:07.350 --> 00:41:10.350
it has already dropped from 95 to 93.
1778
00:41:10.550 --> 00:41:12.629
You could see the line drop straight down.
1779
00:41:12.790 --> 00:41:14.469
I wish we got this to you even earlier,
1780
00:41:14.550 --> 00:41:15.419
unfortunately,
1781
00:41:15.669 --> 00:41:16.939
cause it did drop a little bit.
1782
00:41:17.149 --> 00:41:17.709
This morning,
1783
00:41:17.790 --> 00:41:19.290
I was able to buy shares
1784
00:41:19.550 --> 00:41:21.050
of no
1785
00:41:21.469 --> 00:41:22.469
on his projection,
1786
00:41:22.489 --> 00:41:23.909
and I'll tell you about that here in a second.
1787
00:41:24.830 --> 00:41:25.189
Um,
1788
00:41:25.310 --> 00:41:26.360
which it already is way,
1789
00:41:26.479 --> 00:41:26.590
way,
1790
00:41:26.709 --> 00:41:27.030
way up.
1791
00:41:27.149 --> 00:41:28.580
Godzilla 0 tomato score,
1792
00:41:28.669 --> 00:41:28.860
his,
1793
00:41:28.929 --> 00:41:29.889
his thesis is,
1794
00:41:30.229 --> 00:41:31.510
it will be above 90,
1795
00:41:31.610 --> 00:41:32.750
so it'll be very well reviewed,
1796
00:41:32.810 --> 00:41:35.209
but probably not above 95.
1797
00:41:35.590 --> 00:41:35.709
Uh,
1798
00:41:35.870 --> 00:41:37.729
Calci had it at a 95%,
1799
00:41:38.120 --> 00:41:38.270
uh,
1800
00:41:38.310 --> 00:41:39.070
at the time of this.
1801
00:41:39.149 --> 00:41:41.189
Adam's guess was 91%.
1802
00:41:41.790 --> 00:41:42.229
So you can,
1803
00:41:42.350 --> 00:41:42.590
on,
1804
00:41:42.669 --> 00:41:43.419
on these markets,
1805
00:41:43.550 --> 00:41:44.199
you can pick,
1806
00:41:44.310 --> 00:41:44.459
uh,
1807
00:41:44.469 --> 00:41:48.659
it will be below 94 or below 92 or below 96,
1808
00:41:48.709 --> 00:41:50.550
whatever you want and get that at different prices.
1809
00:41:50.830 --> 00:41:52.889
I was getting below 94
1810
00:41:53.120 --> 00:41:55.750
at a 30% possibility this morning.
1811
00:41:55.989 --> 00:41:56.590
I don't know what it's at.
1812
00:41:56.659 --> 00:41:56.669
Yeah,
1813
00:41:56.750 --> 00:41:58.409
I think it was up to like 50 or 60 now.
1814
00:41:58.709 --> 00:41:58.989
Um,
1815
00:41:59.189 --> 00:41:59.669
what's the evidence?
1816
00:41:59.750 --> 00:42:00.320
What's the case here?
1817
00:42:00.389 --> 00:42:00.550
Well,
1818
00:42:00.719 --> 00:42:01.750
Godzilla -1,
1819
00:42:01.870 --> 00:42:02.810
which was the original.
1820
00:42:03.159 --> 00:42:04.860
It was a bona fide masterpiece,
1821
00:42:04.959 --> 00:42:05.590
according to Adam,
1822
00:42:05.840 --> 00:42:07.679
and topping uh that is going to be a challenge.
1823
00:42:07.879 --> 00:42:10.520
That the original's at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes,
1824
00:42:10.600 --> 00:42:13.179
so it's gonna be really hard unless it's like the greatest movie of all time.
1825
00:42:13.560 --> 00:42:13.780
Uh,
1826
00:42:13.800 --> 00:42:15.429
earlier reviews from the premiere,
1827
00:42:15.760 --> 00:42:15.949
uh,
1828
00:42:16.080 --> 00:42:17.639
seem to imply it's a very good film,
1829
00:42:17.729 --> 00:42:18.520
maybe a great film,
1830
00:42:18.679 --> 00:42:19.959
but not as great as the original,
1831
00:42:20.000 --> 00:42:21.520
which is of course typical with a sequel,
1832
00:42:21.600 --> 00:42:21.750
right?
1833
00:42:21.800 --> 00:42:23.600
Really hard to stand up to the original.
1834
00:42:23.919 --> 00:42:26.979
It is the first R-rated Godzilla movie ever
1835
00:42:27.199 --> 00:42:28.179
in franchise history.
1836
00:42:29.120 --> 00:42:30.560
Will that be jarring to fans?
1837
00:42:30.679 --> 00:42:30.760
Yeah,
1838
00:42:30.879 --> 00:42:31.149
maybe,
1839
00:42:31.239 --> 00:42:31.800
maybe not,
1840
00:42:31.879 --> 00:42:33.219
but it is a big change.
1841
00:42:33.760 --> 00:42:34.360
Metacritic,
1842
00:42:34.520 --> 00:42:35.840
another rating agency,
1843
00:42:35.919 --> 00:42:36.399
if you will,
1844
00:42:36.639 --> 00:42:38.040
has it at a 78.
1845
00:42:38.239 --> 00:42:38.560
Again,
1846
00:42:38.800 --> 00:42:39.479
pretty good,
1847
00:42:39.639 --> 00:42:40.679
but not great,
1848
00:42:40.959 --> 00:42:41.699
not great.
1849
00:42:42.070 --> 00:42:42.360
Um,
1850
00:42:42.439 --> 00:42:42.909
and of course,
1851
00:42:42.959 --> 00:42:43.040
I,
1852
00:42:43.159 --> 00:42:43.709
as I told you,
1853
00:42:43.719 --> 00:42:46.439
and as Adam pointed out on this card that he presented to me,
1854
00:42:46.679 --> 00:42:48.260
Adam was right about willful.
1855
00:42:48.479 --> 00:42:49.580
That's all it says on the card.
1856
00:42:52.030 --> 00:42:53.149
He was right about well Paul.
1857
00:42:53.260 --> 00:42:54.409
I made money off of that.
1858
00:42:54.750 --> 00:42:56.030
Maybe we'll make money off of this too.
1859
00:42:56.229 --> 00:42:57.070
So far we're already up.
1860
00:42:57.189 --> 00:42:57.590
Godzilla,
1861
00:42:57.750 --> 00:42:57.989
by the way,
1862
00:42:58.070 --> 00:42:58.669
I will just tell you,
1863
00:42:58.790 --> 00:42:59.429
I don't understand what,
1864
00:42:59.510 --> 00:43:00.669
what do you mean Godzilla -1?
1865
00:43:00.709 --> 00:43:01.530
What does that even mean?
1866
00:43:02.030 --> 00:43:02.389
Uh,
1867
00:43:02.629 --> 00:43:04.389
so the Godzilla -1 was the original one.
1868
00:43:04.429 --> 00:43:05.699
It's something to do with like,
1869
00:43:05.790 --> 00:43:05.909
hey,
1870
00:43:06.030 --> 00:43:06.889
Japan,
1871
00:43:07.310 --> 00:43:07.669
uh,
1872
00:43:07.870 --> 00:43:08.139
was,
1873
00:43:08.270 --> 00:43:08.820
it was,
1874
00:43:08.909 --> 00:43:12.090
was at the 0 point after the nuclear bomb went off,
1875
00:43:12.310 --> 00:43:13.629
and then it got even worse cause a
1876
00:43:13.629 --> 00:43:16.689
giant lizard dinosaur creature started blowing everything up.
1877
00:43:17.060 --> 00:43:17.340
Um,
1878
00:43:17.409 --> 00:43:18.540
and walking on buildings.
1879
00:43:18.699 --> 00:43:21.129
So they went from 0 to -1.
1880
00:43:21.419 --> 00:43:22.500
Now they're 0,
1881
00:43:22.580 --> 00:43:24.199
which I think means things are getting better.
1882
00:43:24.620 --> 00:43:24.879
So,
1883
00:43:24.899 --> 00:43:26.429
congratulations to Japan.
1884
00:43:26.659 --> 00:43:27.060
Uh,
1885
00:43:27.219 --> 00:43:28.169
and congratulations to us.
1886
00:43:28.250 --> 00:43:28.459
Hopefully,
1887
00:43:28.500 --> 00:43:28.919
we're gonna win.
1888
00:43:28.979 --> 00:43:29.139
I,
1889
00:43:29.219 --> 00:43:30.340
I'm already up on this one.
1890
00:43:30.379 --> 00:43:30.919
This is great.
1891
00:43:31.330 --> 00:43:31.580
Um,
1892
00:43:31.659 --> 00:43:31.899
I was,
1893
00:43:32.020 --> 00:43:32.350
I bought it,
1894
00:43:32.379 --> 00:43:34.159
I think at under 94 at 30,
1895
00:43:34.169 --> 00:43:36.500
and I think it was at 60 or 64 or something,
1896
00:43:36.540 --> 00:43:37.520
I think I saw on there.
1897
00:43:37.889 --> 00:43:38.020
Uh,
1898
00:43:38.100 --> 00:43:38.530
what is it at?
1899
00:43:38.620 --> 00:43:41.280
Go to give me under 94 here real quick before we break.
1900
00:43:41.719 --> 00:43:43.439
Under 94 would be,
1901
00:43:43.520 --> 00:43:44.399
if you go to 94,
1902
00:43:44.479 --> 00:43:45.689
click no,
1903
00:43:45.800 --> 00:43:46.669
64.
1904
00:43:46.929 --> 00:43:47.320
So it's,
1905
00:43:47.399 --> 00:43:49.520
I've already doubled my money since Adam pitched this in the morning.
1906
00:43:49.639 --> 00:43:50.209
Adam,
1907
00:43:50.739 --> 00:43:52.459
more Adam segments.
1908
00:43:53.120 --> 00:43:54.080
More Adam segments,
1909
00:43:54.149 --> 00:43:55.459
less stew segments.
1910
00:43:56.120 --> 00:43:57.580
Fewer two segments
1911
00:43:57.949 --> 00:43:58.479
in the appropriate way.
1912
00:43:58.550 --> 00:43:58.959
Let's take a break,
1913
00:43:59.070 --> 00:43:59.600
back in a second.
1914
00:44:08.760 --> 00:44:10.979
A checking account makes you about what?
1915
00:44:11.520 --> 00:44:12.629
0% per year?
1916
00:44:12.679 --> 00:44:13.389
A savings account,
1917
00:44:13.439 --> 00:44:15.500
maybe 2 or 3% per year.
1918
00:44:16.040 --> 00:44:16.989
I can tell you right now,
1919
00:44:17.080 --> 00:44:20.780
there are tons of opportunities on prediction markets for you to make,
1920
00:44:20.969 --> 00:44:21.070
like,
1921
00:44:21.120 --> 00:44:22.899
I'm gonna be really conservative here,
1922
00:44:23.360 --> 00:44:24.409
5%
1923
00:44:24.520 --> 00:44:25.219
on your money
1924
00:44:25.520 --> 00:44:26.739
in the next 6 days.
1925
00:44:27.239 --> 00:44:31.260
I can give you uh uh uh easily a dozen different markets that would do that for you.
1926
00:44:31.600 --> 00:44:32.080
Um,
1927
00:44:32.449 --> 00:44:32.959
And,
1928
00:44:33.260 --> 00:44:33.439
uh,
1929
00:44:33.540 --> 00:44:33.739
you know,
1930
00:44:33.860 --> 00:44:34.090
look,
1931
00:44:34.209 --> 00:44:36.489
I am not an investment advisor,
1932
00:44:36.580 --> 00:44:36.659
I,
1933
00:44:36.739 --> 00:44:36.899
you know,
1934
00:44:37.020 --> 00:44:37.820
but I can tell you these,
1935
00:44:37.899 --> 00:44:39.620
there's real opportunities in these markets,
1936
00:44:39.780 --> 00:44:41.419
especially if you wanna be really conservative and
1937
00:44:41.419 --> 00:44:43.000
just increase your capital a little bit.
1938
00:44:43.290 --> 00:44:43.590
Um,
1939
00:44:43.699 --> 00:44:44.080
so
1940
00:44:44.250 --> 00:44:45.580
join us at predictableShow.com.
1941
00:44:45.649 --> 00:44:46.580
If you're a premium subscriber,
1942
00:44:46.620 --> 00:44:48.139
you're gonna get every single pick that I have.
1943
00:44:48.219 --> 00:44:49.560
You can be as risky as you want,
1944
00:44:50.179 --> 00:44:51.570
but it's predictableShow.com.
1945
00:44:51.739 --> 00:44:52.860
Become a premium subscriber,
1946
00:44:52.939 --> 00:44:54.659
you get every single pick that I have.
1947
00:44:54.969 --> 00:44:55.500
Stu's picks,
1948
00:44:55.580 --> 00:44:56.239
it's available
1949
00:44:56.580 --> 00:44:57.139
for you to see.
1950
00:44:57.239 --> 00:44:58.560
There's over 300 of them,
1951
00:44:58.939 --> 00:44:59.129
uh,
1952
00:44:59.139 --> 00:45:00.300
for you to peruse,
1953
00:45:00.419 --> 00:45:00.669
but
1954
00:45:01.179 --> 00:45:01.929
Pick a couple of them.
1955
00:45:02.060 --> 00:45:02.550
Get involved.
1956
00:45:02.699 --> 00:45:03.139
Check this out.
1957
00:45:03.199 --> 00:45:04.320
It's a real tool
1958
00:45:04.500 --> 00:45:04.780
for you.
1959
00:45:04.919 --> 00:45:08.600
Even if the only thing that you have is really nerdy Godzilla knowledge,
1960
00:45:08.860 --> 00:45:11.020
you too can make money on prediction markets.
1961
00:45:11.260 --> 00:45:11.459
All right,
1962
00:45:11.540 --> 00:45:13.479
that's all the time that we have for today.
1963
00:45:13.699 --> 00:45:16.239
We'll talk to you soon and see you at predictableshow.com.