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With a slightly more positive but cautious tone, the Bank of Canada announced Wednesday that interest rates would stay put, marking its sixth consecutive hold.
As part of the decision announcement, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem outlined three key messages for the country’s population. First, after a rough start to the year economic growth looks to have resumed. Secondly, that inflation is poised to ease and, lastly, that uncertainty remains high.
Two uncertain factors the central bank will be monitoring closely are the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) negotiations and how the war in Iran is impacting global oil prices.
"We've been looking through the direct effects of higher oil prices on inflation, but the longer they remain elevated, the bigger the risk they spill over to other goods and services," Macklem said.
To help break down what Canadians should make of the decision and expect in the coming months, Olivier Gervais, the Director of Modelling and Forecasting at Scotiabank joins the podcast.
For legal disclosures, please visit http://bit.ly/socialdisclaim and www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures
Key moments this episode:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:46 Olivier's Bank of Canada Experience
00:03:02 Why the Bank Held Rates
00:05:13 Canadian Business Resilience
00:05:58 Iran Conflict and Oil Prices
00:07:11 CUSMA Renegotiation Outlook
00:08:15 What Employment Data Tells Us
00:09:29 Inflation and Grocery Prices
00:10:27 What Would Lower Inflation?
00:10:57 Canada's Housing Market
00:13:04 Mortgage Renewals
00:13:57 Rate Outlook for the Months Ahead
00:15:42 Looking Ahead to September
00:16:05 Key Takeaways for Canadians
