WEBVTT
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We are experiencing a paradigm shift, a fundamental change in the way we usually do things.
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We are intentionally choosing to see the silver lining opportunity arises.
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We can shine a light on the things that weren't working well on those things that weren't really working at all, we can regroup reevaluate and re-engineer it's time to explore new patterns and paradigms those that inspire us to rise above the chaos and explore how the conditions of today can take us to a better tomorrow patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast from Hudson Valley pattern for progress.
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You're listening to episode seven election day is done.
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What's next with your host pattern, president and CEO, Jonathan Dropkin.
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Hi everyone.
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And welcome to this week's episode of patterns and paradigms.
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You may hear in the background, my wind chimes as there are wind gusts of up to 60 miles an hour here in Sullivan County.
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In last week's episode, we had a spirited discussion with Kent gardener of CGR and Michael and dolo looking at the future of regional economic development and restructuring of local government as the pandemic and the disruptive economy continue.
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We will undoubtedly return to this subject.
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If you have any questions or comments, please send them to pattern for progress.org/podcast.
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And please remember to subscribe to our podcast, which is available on Apple, Amazon music, Spotify, Google tune in and Stitcher.
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This week's pattern and paradigm trend in keeping with an election day theme.
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For this episode, prior to Tuesday, some States are already above their 2016 turnout for voting while many are close to it.
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Now, whether this is a trend with regard to voting in presidential elections, you will have to be with us four years from now.
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It is a strong sign of engagement for this election.
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And we think that is a good thing.
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And that happened despite some efforts to inhibit voting.
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So it is ironic that this year's turnout may in fact be the largest ever in light of election day.
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We're going to have a special edition of parent patterns and paradigms while we recorded the episode on Friday, October 30th, it is airing today, November 4th, the day after election day, myself and our guests did our best to avoid any predictions that we will be sorry about.
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But I think a few of them still found their way in there.
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Our segment with Joe on patterns, activities, we'll be back with us next week in order to devote more time to our special guests, dr.
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Gerald Benjamin emeritus, founding director of the Benjamin center, distinguished professor of political science and the associate vice president for regional engagement all at the state university of New York at new Paltz and our other guests, Liz Benjamin, a veteran of two decades of reporting on state and local government during which time she hosted must-see TV Capitol tonight here in New York and was also the editor of the s how's blog, the state of politics.
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And yes, for those of you keeping track, they are father and daughter, a nd between them, their knowledge of state and local government is simply extraordinary.
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Jerry and Liz, welcome to the show.
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How are both of you doing
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Dad?
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You want to take that one?
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I'm doing fine.
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Uh, thank God.
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My family all is healthy and safe and keeping a low profile and, uh, trying to remain interest interesting and interested in activity in New York matters.
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Hmm.
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I guess I could just say I'm still here.
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We're all still here, which is the most positive thing that one can s ave these days, right?
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I think so.
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And I think, um, the, the notion of remaining positive throughout this is going to have to be part of our DNA.
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Um, so let's just jump in.
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Some have said that this is the most consequential election in our lifetimes.
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Do you agree?
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Disagree?
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You know, I feel like that's a phrase that's been tossed around quite a bit.
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Um, and I'm not sure necessarily.
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And each time that it is employed, it is certainly you can make a case for it and you can make a case against it.
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I don't know, never have we had this particular set of circumstances necessarily, but the Mo I mean, every election is consequential and matters in people's lives.
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Uh, this one is significant.
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Of course, we have an ongoing pandemic.
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We have the attendant economic fallout that is hitting New York in particular, very hard.
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And it's g onna probably take years to recover from New York.
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U h, we're going a little slower, particularly in N ew York city.
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So it's very significant, but I mean the most significant, I don't know, that's a little hyperbole.
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Well, and, and Jerry, any contextual
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First point, I would say that is that my lifetime is longer.
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It covers a bigger period of time.
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I, I think that, uh, it probably is the most important election in my lifetime.
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And the reason for that is that it engages the persistence in survival of our system of government.
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Now, I think that, uh, that the system has been eroding it's it's, it's, it's, uh, it's challenges that it currently faces.
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Didn't just arrive in whole cloth, but, uh, we have a leadership not committed, not committed to democratic process.
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And we have elevation of the executive at every level in government to the, uh, at the cost of the representative branch.
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And, uh, we have, uh, a contempt for democracy that we discover is shared by a significant portion of our population.
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So, uh, I think that makes it important beyond the immediate kinds of concerns, economics, social, which are very challenging and very, uh, contentious.
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So that's my,
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And, and, and historically, um, I go all the way back to, you know, following Lincoln, uh, Lincoln's assassination, the presidential election resulted in a Republican group of, um, people that were responsible for creating the, um, adjustments that were made after the civil war.
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And that was consequential and then jump up to, you know, 1968.
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And, and that was consequential.
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So is it that we really it's the lived experience that this is happening to us now, and that's closer to what Liz is saying that maybe it's not the most consequential, but it's happening now versus historically there were other consequential presidential elections.
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I guess what I'm getting at is that the, I I've spoken to enough, people that have said is that this is the most important moment in time.
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I, for one had always thought the sixties as a totality was the most important period of time.
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2020 is clearly giving the sixties a run for its money, but there have been other consequential, u h, times of consequence in which case I'm looking for.
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Is there a sense that because we're living through it that we don't understand?
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Yeah.
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There've been other times like this.
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Well, particularly if you're young, you don't have any reference point other than what you've read in history books or learn in school, but you know, the sixties, you bring up the sixties.
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And certainly there's a lot of echoes of the sixties that we're seeing here in our civil unrest, a call for widespread change, uh, significant clashes that are occurring in the street.
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And then layered on top of that is the added stress and threat of the ongoing worldwide pandemic.
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I mean, I don't know that we've ever had at this moment, so many corresponding layers of problems, but, you know, I, I mean, if I had been alive during the civil war, maybe I would've said something different to you.
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So I think that a lot of it has to do with context and to some degree, this is, I mean, it's an interesting question to debate.
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It's an esoteric question.
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I mean, what really, what we really want is to motivate people, to get engaged.
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And if this in fact has motivated people to get engaged, and it seems like it's, since we solved these crazy lines for people waiting to vote and, you know, young people really engaged and maybe to the level of the Obama, uh, elections, we don't know because we'll have to see the numbers and, you know, final tallies there.
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Um, and I don't know, and, and, and dad, you might be able to chime in on this, but I don't know if ever that threat to democracy in terms of the question of the veracity of the vote has ever been this widespread and significant because of the added complexity of the mail-in ballot search.
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It's not the most consequential election in American history.
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That's for sure.
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It's not, it's not, it's interesting.
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The most consequential election in American history, A-list 1800, the orderly transference of power from one party to another very important 1860, the election of Lincoln, which triggered, u h, the civil war, which w ould have destroyed the nation very important, 1876 w hen the electoral college d eadlock a nd, and the system could have collapsed and they not negotiated an outcome, however, problematic, u h, 1928 and, and management of the depression, u h, you r aise the sixties, which I think are a very close analogy to c ontempt t o, to contemporary times.
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So you're right.
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I mean, people, u h, more than r ight, perfectly right to say that people are present this a nd don't have an historic context.
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U m, I also think that, u h, one thing that's happened to me now that we w e re k ind of shut in is I am actually watching television an d i t's n ot baseball.
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And, and, u h, s o I'm bingeing on some shows, shows that I never saw like the secretary, wh ich, which everybody so ber m e, u h, a t the secretary of state, Madam secretary, Ma dam s ecretary.
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And I feel like the election is p eople saying, we've been living through this every episode of this bizarre experience, an d w e're go ing t o g et to see how it comes out, except th ere, they may not be yo ur f ollowing season.
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So yo u w atch it.
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I find this funny because,
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Um, you know, first of all, he's never been a television Sainato, but, um, I'm not.
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And I, and I actually, there was an interesting story, uh, in the news this morning on the morning that we're having this conversation, that Netflix is actually raising its rates, which is probably gonna make people really angry.
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But, um, I've tried a bunch of shows that were really popular with people.
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And, um, I can't really get into any of them.
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The problem might be that I stare at a computer screen all day long, and I'm not really interested in staring at any more screens at the end of the day.
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Um, and, uh, part of the, one of the vagaries of working at home is that you really never s top working.
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There's just no real work-life balance.
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I mean, my work and life is taking place in the same place.
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Like literally I could get up and walk five feet to get to the home bedroom and the home kitchen and the home bathroom.
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Right.
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So it's not, um, I find that my work is taking a lot of time and I don't really have a lot of, um, opportunities for binge-watching.
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I guess I tried Schitt's Creek.
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A lot of people like it.
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I tried the Ozarks, a lot of people like that.
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My husband had really enjoyed queen of the South, so I couldn't get into it too violent.
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Um, I just, just can't really get into any of it, unfortunately, which makes me pretty boring, but
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No, I don't know if it makes me boring.
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It's kind of interesting.
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We, we run a mid career, um, training program called the pattern fellows program and the, we do these icebreaker questions and every year, um, I thought it would be an interesting question to ask, what book are you reading?
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Well, after a while it got to a point where people were saying, well, I don't really read books.
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I watch Netflix.
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Well, so then this year I said, what are you watching on Netflix?
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And they said, Oh, in the pandemic, I've gone back to reading books and I've said, I can't win.
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I can't win.
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So
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I'm glad for the book resurgence actually.
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And, um, I'm really, I find it amusing that, you know, one's backdrop, apparently this like a thing now that if you don't have the power broker on your bookshelf, behind you, in your zoom call or your team's call, then particularly in certain circles, you know, you're, you've definitely come down a few pegs.
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Right.
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I have mine by the way, it's downstairs.
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I do own the power broker.
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So just in case, anybody's wondering,
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I went to journalism school at Columbia, they signed the power broker.
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Yeah.
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I'm sure they did.
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I mine's here.
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It's indifferent.
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It's all broken up.
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But, um, right.
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And she, she, she told me that and I said a good 400 page book that takes a thousand pages to read.
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All right, let's take you.
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It's the day after election voter turnout.
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Um, the screen on 60 minutes said yesterday that 60% of the voters had already cast the ballot.
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Um, as of yesterday, are we heading to just
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An incredibly record turnout?
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I hope so.
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I mean, you know, what's interesting though, is that the president in all his wisdom or lack thereof basically was like questioning.
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There's going to be widespread fraud and all these mail-in ballots, et cetera, and so forth.
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And I wonder if that's sort of, he shot himself in the foot because people were like, Holy, I can't do this mail-in thing.
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I got to go show up at early voting instead.
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And so people are waiting on these lines and in New York, you know, which, which is interesting.
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You can mail your absentee in and then change your mind and go in person and they void your absentee and they take the ballot that you filed, um, in person.
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Um, so you actually can, you can do both.
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You can vote twice, but only one vote counts.
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U h, I guess you could change your mind if you felt like it.
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I mean, I h appen to vote absentee, u m, instead a little career when I dropped it in the mailbox, but, u h, I think a lot of people, u m, are concerned because the president has raised the question a nd the spectrum.
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And also they've seen the reports about the us postal service a nd, and the changes in the cuts that have been made there.
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And they're experiencing it.
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You buy something on Amazon takes you three weeks to get it.
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So maybe you shouldn't mail by mail your ballot in
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Jerry.
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I think there's been a very, very high level of stimulus.
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Um, I expect when we look at the numbers, finally, we're going to see that elevated participation in every demographic, but the same differences among demographics maintained, relatively speaking.
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Uh, I think it's a lot easier to vote and, uh, there's a lot of different ways you can vote now, and there's a longer time period to voting.
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So there's some issues go away.
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Like, can I get a babysitter?
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I don't drive in the rain.
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My spouse has the car, you know, all those, uh, all those, uh, impediments, uh, are diminished.
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We still have legal challenges in New York that we have to deal with on this.
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So a turn and yet, if we get massive turnout, we'll still have a third to third or more of the, of the eligible population not voting.
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So that's a remaining, uh, Manny challenge.
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Well, is this one of the ironies of this election that with all the talk of voter suppression, it may in fact be the largest turnout ever.
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And is that an irony or i s, or would G2 like to destroy that concept?
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Well, first of all, even if it's the largest turnout ever as dad just mentioned, it's not enough.
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I mean, you know, even if we get to 50% still not enough, and this is something that, you know, when I did have a public platform, now you're giving me a brief return to my soap box, which I really appreciate, but I used to rail against this and just, you know, call on people.
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The turnout is pathetic.
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And some of that is because people in New York think that their vote doesn't count because you know, it's going to the, state's going to go to Biden.
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So, Oh, well, why should I bother?
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But there's a lot of contested state races and congressional seats.
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And so every four years, you know, and the presidential race does traditionally cause an uptick in turnout.
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Uh, and, and really, but this it's the very foundation of our democracy, your capability of voting.
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And so you should exercise it.
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It's, it's an amazing privilege and a right, but also what's expected of you as a citizen of this country and this state, that's just, it's a pretty low bar for your citizenship.
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You don't really have to do very much.
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All you have to do is go to the, go, just go to the polls, get some basic information about who you're looking at and make a choice.
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That's all we ask of you.
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And, uh, we don't ask for very much.
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So I think that, that, uh, the participation and, you know, the Democrats, since they took over control of the state legislature have certainly made some inroads toward trying to make it easier to vote.
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But, you know, some countries pay people to vote.
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Some like some countries give you the whole day off some countries like Peru find you, if you don't vote.
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And then subsequently you're not actually eligible to go to a publicly funded college.
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If you have not voted, for example, I mean, I'm not suggesting we get that draconian, but I think that we need to do more to encourage people to participate,
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Carrie, any, any, can I be against more voting?
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No, I know that you couldn't be against more voting, but I, I often, I think back to the sixties also, and I know that you and I sort of have lived through that experience and that even that didn't cause more people to come out and vote.
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So I just hope that the numbers are trending in the way that they suggest that there will be more turnout.
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We did make it easier for people to vote.
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I think that, uh, you know, I think we're looking at a competitive national election and that's a motivator.
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Absolutely.
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And when you look at, uh, Liz made a very good point that this is not the only election, uh, happening this year.
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And in fact, uh, the United States, people in the United States are asked to vote for more offices in any other country on the same day, in the same circumstance.
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And they're asked to vote more frequently than people in any other country because we have primary elections and we have local elections and we have all these responsibilities that voters have.
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So, uh, we, we demand, we demand relatively more voters than most in most countries.
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And, uh, it's fundamentally important for legitimizing and sustaining the political system, which is my initial point, but, but we need to have a competitive environment and in New York where we're increasingly not competitive in most places, and people are looking at no effective choice, they're not encouraged to vote just to make a statement that voting is a good thing.
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Well, and to be clear, we're actually moving into a, uh, era when we're probably going to have even less competition I expect because there's going to be another round of redistricting.
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And given the trends that we've been seeing in New York in terms of Democrat growth in registration and out migration, that continues in upstate New York in particular, um, you're likely to see, and if the Democrats maintain, which is expected control of the legislature, which means that are controlling the legislative redistricting process, you're going to see, uh, less gerrymandered districts, which is certainly positive, but as a result, that will be less competitive for Republicans, which is kind of a switch because Republicans controlled the redistricting process and drew the line specifically to benefit them.
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:46.049
But now you're going to see the Democrats redraw the lines based on a more realistic outlook of what the trends and the registration looks like.
00:21:46.050 --> 00:21:47.309
And the population looks like.
00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:58.049
And as a result, you're going to have a lot more intro party battles and more regional battles, as you know, conservative versus pragmatic versus liberal Democrats, all vying for various different.
00:21:58.410 --> 00:22:03.029
I was shifting the competitive environment to, uh, to the primary elections.
00:22:04.349 --> 00:22:15.269
So, uh, something I'm writing about now, which is less attended to is a very high proportion of New York elected officials, elected vacancies that arise.
00:22:15.299 --> 00:22:18.329
I just counted by chance.
00:22:18.330 --> 00:22:26.039
I happened to be counting yesterday, the number of special elections in the tooth last two decades of the state legislature, and t hey were upwards of 65.
00:22:27.210 --> 00:22:30.119
So, u m, these are low turnout elections.
00:22:30.121 --> 00:22:39.269
So w e're talking about t urn o ut in the general election, but the decisions are going to be in a low turnout elections, held in less v isual times, less expected times for voters.
00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:45.440
And you look at these elections i n t here, and they're quite close in a lot of jurisdictions that are regarded as n on-competitive.
00:22:45.480 --> 00:22:52.259
You look at special elections in the Bronx o r primary elections in certain parts of Brooklyn, which are overwhelmingly democratic.
00:22:52.740 --> 00:22:59.130
And you find that you're getting, you're getting six, seven, 8,000 voters, but the e lection i s decided by two or 300 votes.
00:22:59.730 --> 00:22:59.880
So
00:23:00.359 --> 00:23:01.559
Why you need to vote?
00:23:04.589 --> 00:23:11.519
Just say, absolutely.
00:23:11.520 --> 00:23:12.720
We couldn't say it enough.
00:23:12.721 --> 00:23:15.210
Unfortunately, the show will air on the day.
00:23:16.319 --> 00:23:17.220
There'll be more elections.
00:23:17.221 --> 00:23:17.970
God-willing water.
00:23:18.029 --> 00:23:19.380
We're going to all have more of them.
00:23:19.619 --> 00:23:20.430
Absolutely.
00:23:20.730 --> 00:23:22.109
Liz way to say this.
00:23:22.111 --> 00:23:26.369
So it's your opinion that the Senate will not flip in New York state?
00:23:28.079 --> 00:23:29.579
Nope, no shot, no.
00:23:29.759 --> 00:23:39.750
I mean, the re the main question is whether the Democrats will win a veto proof majority, a super majority, that you only need two seats to do it.
00:23:40.049 --> 00:23:44.880
U m, there are a lot of open seats and there's 10 vacant seats as a result of Republican.
00:23:45.980 --> 00:23:47.630
Some of those are likely p ickups.
00:23:48.019 --> 00:23:54.019
U h, there are some current marginal Democrats who might be, u m, u h, in, in danger.
00:23:54.020 --> 00:23:56.450
I'm not gonna name any names, c ause this is a p ost-election chefs.
00:23:57.200 --> 00:24:05.539
I don't want to look too stupid, but you know, the super majority now, just to be clear, you know, the legislature doesn't go around overriding the governor every day.
00:24:05.539 --> 00:24:06.829
It hasn't happened quite some time.
00:24:06.830 --> 00:24:18.380
It happened a couple of times to George Pataki, uh, which was interesting because at the time it was, uh, speaker silver and Joe Bruno, the majority leader who was a Republican and silver was a Democrat, upstate downstate.
00:24:18.381 --> 00:24:33.920
They had very different interests, but sometimes they got together and ganged up on Republican Pataki, uh, governor Cuomo, who of course is a very powerful individual, even more so than the executive sort of entrenched executive power that we have in New York.
00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:39.109
Uh, his ability to wield that is quite significant and his political clout and prowess is significant.
00:24:39.140 --> 00:24:43.609
The legislature has never actually gone so far as to try to override one of his vetoes.
00:24:43.611 --> 00:24:44.329
It's a tough thing.
00:24:44.330 --> 00:24:49.789
Two thirds vote of both houses, just be cause y ou have a super majority, it doesn't mean you're gonna be able to hang everybody together.
00:24:49.790 --> 00:24:53.390
You're going to be able to have everybody present for a vote in the age of COVID.
00:24:53.599 --> 00:24:57.529
I don't even know if that's possible because you know, people are all over the place.
00:24:57.530 --> 00:25:01.009
So, u h, b ut it's something to threaten him with.
00:25:01.010 --> 00:25:04.970
Certainly that has not actually been there before in the Senate, the assembly has it.
00:25:05.450 --> 00:25:07.940
Uh, s o that's what the Senate is trying to do.
00:25:07.941 --> 00:25:10.609
I don't think the Republicans are go nna m ake a co meback p robably ever.
00:25:11.589 --> 00:25:11.920
Okay.
00:25:11.950 --> 00:25:21.039
So, so wait, let right now, are we still operating state government by executive order, in which case?
00:25:22.119 --> 00:25:24.880
Um, what, what does that do?
00:25:24.881 --> 00:25:33.069
And, and, and Jerry, what does that do to the, you know, sort of checks and balances, then, you know, that is, what's the role of the legislature.
00:25:33.070 --> 00:25:40.750
If the governor is just saying, Hey, I'm in charge and here's the executive order, and I get to control what happens.
00:25:41.529 --> 00:25:51.039
And the guy was going to check here, if it wasn't given into perpetuity, but it looks like the crises are going to extend beyond the year.
00:25:51.040 --> 00:25:52.720
So we're going to have to address that question.
00:25:53.500 --> 00:25:59.859
And the legislature is also voting without being present, as Liz said, yes.
00:26:00.130 --> 00:26:13.630
The idea of a deliberative assembly is challenged when people aren't in the same room, even though we're unfortunately accustomed to the debates, mean meaning little or nothing in policy-making in New York because of the party discipline that prevails in the legislation.
00:26:14.230 --> 00:26:17.680
So we have some very important institutional issues to face.
00:26:17.710 --> 00:26:27.250
And as I, as I tried to mention, uh, earlier they're, they're universal, they're at every level of government has been elevated.
00:26:27.640 --> 00:26:45.089
I think it has a lot to do with changes in society, changes in communications, expect reaffirm what we call reification for getting me in academe, you know, centering the idea of government and one person, you know, that p erson's in charge of the complex separation of power is elusive i n some people.
00:26:45.090 --> 00:26:47.519
So, u h, I think there's real challenges.
00:26:47.520 --> 00:26:57.390
That's why I think the veto proof majority i s, are, are interesting because they offer the opportunity to assert the institution's role and responsibility.
00:26:58.259 --> 00:27:01.109
I once had a conversation with Mario C ole very quickly about this.
00:27:01.140 --> 00:27:07.500
U h, he was, u h, I was a great admirer of his and, u h, worked for him a little bit.
00:27:07.680 --> 00:27:14.819
And he said, professor, you forget when he said, professor, you k now, y ou w ere in trouble because you w ere completely ignorant.
00:27:15.539 --> 00:27:18.450
H e said, professor, you forget, they can act without me.
00:27:18.451 --> 00:27:19.559
I can't act without that.
00:27:21.809 --> 00:27:29.279
And so theoretically they can assert themselves, but as a practical matter i s i t's unlikely.
00:27:30.559 --> 00:27:37.700
But I mean, just to be clear, the battle over the powers between the legislature and the executive is not new.
00:27:37.880 --> 00:27:42.799
I mean, right now, certainly there's, it's one thing to chafe against the fact that you have.
00:27:42.859 --> 00:28:04.009
So, u h, such a powerful and, and, and some critics would say, or have said d ictatorial governor, who's making all these unilateral decisions in a time of COVID, u h, while also writing a book and, you know, doing whatever all else he's doing, but the legislature complains about it, but y et it's actually p rotecting for them because they can say, well, it's not my fault.
00:28:04.010 --> 00:28:07.670
If you don't like X or Y or Z, just l ook, it's the governor, o r he's just doing all this stuff.
00:28:07.671 --> 00:28:08.720
He's running r ampant.
00:28:08.750 --> 00:28:17.630
I mean, and I, and the average voter doesn't understand the intricacies of government and who gave what to whom o r the b lood p lates y ou're seated, i ts power, et cetera.
00:28:17.839 --> 00:28:26.660
And, you know, in the past, it has gone to the, to the third branch of government, which would be the executives and sorry, pardon me?
00:28:26.661 --> 00:28:33.829
The judicial branch and the judicial branch has really affirmed the budgeting power at the very least of the executive.
00:28:33.830 --> 00:28:41.059
So we, so we have a very strong executive here and there's been discord between the executive and legislative branches in the past.
00:28:41.060 --> 00:28:46.039
I mean, this is certainly nothing new, just like there's nothing new to see the mayor of New York city fight with the governor.
00:28:46.069 --> 00:28:49.880
It's just, these two personalities h ave just elevated it to a, y ou k now, astronomical.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:29:08.240
I mean, for me, it was, uh, when I worked for mayor Kotch, uh, his relationship with, uh, governor Cuomo, it was as it to me historically, it seems like this only magnified due to the pandemic, um, they didn't get along.
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:15.470
Um, and Jerry I'm sure you're well, you know, there's, there's something Liz said that triggered a point in my mind.
00:29:15.980 --> 00:29:19.400
One of the dangers of the current moment is the s eeding to the judiciary.
00:29:19.401 --> 00:29:25.759
The p olicy-making p ro u h, responsibility, v ery concerned about who gets o nto the Supreme court.
00:29:26.700 --> 00:29:41.150
I thought i s what w e t hink is well placed when t he, when the, u h, political branches don't work together well, or work effectively in accord with the design of the system, the judiciary becomes t he locus of decision a nd, and that's not a good thing.
00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:42.069
So a t least
00:29:42.069 --> 00:29:52.299
Democratic institution and state and national government, well, so there's a dimension that, uh, is less discussed
00:29:54.750 --> 00:29:58.200
Also, also similarly that has flown under the radar.
00:29:58.201 --> 00:30:02.730
But I think we're probably going to see more of it, particularly because there are a lot of, let's be clear.
00:30:02.759 --> 00:30:17.640
There's a lot of very difficult decisions that lie ahead at the federal level, the state level local level, because of the financial crisis that we're finding ourselves in, as a result of the pandemic, we're going to see a lot of pain and a lot of funding cuts, and we've already started to see it.
00:30:17.641 --> 00:30:22.349
I mean, we see the pain on the street and people are hungry and people are homeless and people are jobless.
00:30:22.380 --> 00:30:26.670
So we've seen that, but it's only the tip of the iceberg about what might be to come.
00:30:26.671 --> 00:30:45.900
And, you know, frequently we have seen, uh, difficult decisions in policy at the state level kicked to unelected commissions, including decisions about, say whether or not legislators should get a pay raise or legislators, pardon me, whether or not there should be how, what congestion pricing should look like, whether or not there should be a plastic bag tax.
00:30:46.980 --> 00:30:55.710
Uh, you know, and I think similarly, that's another way that you're seeing elected officials circumvent their responsibility to make hard choices, because they're afraid that voters are gonna toss them out.
00:30:55.711 --> 00:30:56.940
So they don't want to make hard choices.
00:30:56.941 --> 00:31:00.599
So they're like, Oh, we'll just give it to the judiciary, or we'll just give it to the, this commission.
00:31:00.601 --> 00:31:08.490
And they'll make a decision which really is, you know, antithetical to why you get elected to represent people in government.
00:31:08.609 --> 00:31:11.039
It's not supposed to be an easy job.
00:31:11.849 --> 00:31:13.049
No, not at all.
00:31:13.349 --> 00:31:15.779
So it's the day after election day.
00:31:16.140 --> 00:31:25.890
And I know I didn't want to do predictions, but are we heading to the Supreme court with this?
00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:35.069
Um, no matter what I mean is, has Trump laid the foundation for saying, I will not accept the outcome.
00:31:35.079 --> 00:32:02.819
So unless it is a Biden wave and there's just no doubt about it, are we heading to the court because the earlier decision this week by the courts with regard to when to count votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Wisconsin leads you to some pretty serious concerns over what may happen if it winds up in the Supreme court.
00:32:03.930 --> 00:32:05.700
So is that where we're going?
00:32:12.019 --> 00:32:25.140
I, and I think it really got, um, not lost in the shuffle, but it really didn't get the attention or spark the outrage that it should have the accelerated placement of Amy Coney Barrett on the, on the, uh, Supreme court.
00:32:25.170 --> 00:32:31.410
I mean, I don't think that people there's just so much and people are exhausted and tired and stressed out.
00:32:31.619 --> 00:32:38.730
There's only so much you can get about, but like that was something t o get really about actually, because she's there now, she's there.
00:32:39.109 --> 00:32:50.119
And so, u h, t hat really actually undercuts Ro berts, who you might say what you will about his ideology, but he was trying desperately to prevent the court from being the Trump court.
00:32:50.390 --> 00:32:53.089
But now he's tr umped e ffectively by the right.
00:32:53.359 --> 00:32:57.109
So he, you know, I hope not.
00:32:57.200 --> 00:32:58.819
I hope we don't end up there.
00:32:58.820 --> 00:33:02.329
And actually, u m, y ou know, I do some work for the state bar association.
00:33:02.329 --> 00:33:13.220
We have very interesting, uh, forum recently that, um, election attorney, Jerry Goldfeder was the hair, uh, head of a task force on this issue of what happens now in terms of how do we count the boats?
00:33:13.279 --> 00:33:14.000
Where does it go?
00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:15.890
And who's got the power and all this stuff.
00:33:16.279 --> 00:33:24.710
And a lot of it actually ha I mean, what happens if there's so many possibilities, one state could have a slate of faithless electors.
00:33:24.711 --> 00:33:29.390
A state could send two slates of electors, u m, w ho makes the decision?
00:33:29.480 --> 00:33:31.609
Actually, the st atute i s n ot entirely clear.
00:33:31.611 --> 00:33:36.799
It says it has verbiage about el ect, u m, e xecutives, but doesn't say who the executive is.
00:33:36.800 --> 00:33:57.079
So it could be, the secretary of state could be, the governor could be, I mean, there are so many areas and points where you could end up in court that you got to hope that just, we just don't get there be cause, you know, if we don't, by January 20th, have, u h, a decision about who the president is, it would be acting president Pe losi, I think, yes,
00:33:57.759 --> 00:34:09.670
That's right, because for the speaker I've truth be told, I, I didn't hate the electoral college for much of my career.
00:34:11.409 --> 00:34:19.929
I've come around on the question of the electric being, uh, undesirable, but wasn't sufficiently appreciated as if we had no electro college.
00:34:19.931 --> 00:34:33.099
We might still have the judiciary deciding the alleged dismiss of the, uh, vote in key States and, uh, the County rules and, uh, the potential challenges to ballots and, and so on.
00:34:33.730 --> 00:34:41.559
So, uh, whether or not we have the electoral college, we have the judiciary ultimately situated to choose the president.
00:34:41.561 --> 00:34:44.409
And I think that's a particularly bad thing.
00:34:44.980 --> 00:34:53.260
We also have a, an interesting situation where the change in the law has not caught up with the change in administration historically.
00:34:53.889 --> 00:34:56.769
Uh, the board forgive me.
00:34:58.269 --> 00:35:22.239
I don't want to be a fan to many people, but the board of elections has been in the system in New York has been an athema the last centers of patronage in New York politics, along with the theory and a competence, hasn't prevailed in every board of elections in New York, particularly recently, there's been a call by the mayor and the governor's endorses to undo the New York city board of elections.
00:35:23.170 --> 00:35:34.150
So we have a way of counting and a process that doesn't conform to the way people are voting, the voting early they're voting absentee, we've taken down the at least temporarily.
00:35:34.300 --> 00:35:35.139
They, no excuse.
00:35:36.039 --> 00:35:38.219
We've become to ran to kind of no excuse
00:35:38.219 --> 00:35:39.179
Absentee voting.
00:35:40.019 --> 00:35:47.820
If we changed the constitution to make that permanent, but the institutions aren't prepared to do the work timely.
00:35:49.670 --> 00:36:04.349
When we have these processes entrenched and long established, they get done pretty timely on the West coast, but where they just been taken up in other parts of the country, they're part of their big part of the problem is boring, but it's crucial.
00:36:05.579 --> 00:36:10.800
It absolutely is to the sense that people think there was a, uh, fairness.
00:36:11.039 --> 00:36:15.809
And if you want to encourage people to vote, then they have to believe their vote matters.
00:36:15.811 --> 00:36:23.849
And if some other institution then makes the decision for, I think that flies in the face of making people feel like, why should I vote?
00:36:24.900 --> 00:36:30.510
Um, you know, I was listening to the mayor of Atlanta last night and she made a point about that.
00:36:30.510 --> 00:36:40.739
This is the first time I think, in Georgia's history that they were voting for the president and both senators at the same time.
00:36:41.340 --> 00:36:46.860
And that there couldn't be a more important reason for you to go out and vote.
00:36:47.840 --> 00:36:49.829
This was so significant.
00:36:50.880 --> 00:37:22.380
Um, you know, aside from looking at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight and trying to understand polling, which I want to talk about a little bit, um, do we think the Senate is going to flip and the notion of the polls say acts, but what people always seem to forget is that they say it's a 75% chance that one p ersonal win a nd a 30% chance, but they're saying that a 30% chance that the other person will win.
00:37:23.010 --> 00:37:28.949
And I think we, we don't really understand what a poll means.
00:37:29.309 --> 00:37:31.110
So I'm kind of asking two questions.
00:37:31.110 --> 00:37:36.840
One, what do you think about polling and what does the real meaning of that?
00:37:37.260 --> 00:37:41.400
And then let's go to, does the Senate change?
00:37:41.610 --> 00:37:42.300
Yes or no,
00:37:44.059 --> 00:37:48.920
Polls are, you know, uh, uh, a helpful tool and a snapshot in time.
00:37:49.340 --> 00:38:02.719
It's kind of like when you buy a car, a brand new car and it's worth$20,000 and you drive it off the lot and all of a sudden it depreciates the moment you step out into traffic, right in your car, it's it goes down.
00:38:03.019 --> 00:38:06.769
So there's only one it's like taking a picture.
00:38:07.070 --> 00:38:11.960
Everything changes after that frozen moment, when the person has answered a call, right.
00:38:11.960 --> 00:38:13.400
And answered a bunch of questions.
00:38:13.610 --> 00:38:18.860
And t here's so many also different, u h, vagaries that I know that pollsters have been struggling with.
00:38:18.889 --> 00:38:29.179
What about, u h, are they under, u h, counting, u m, people in inner cities or b ecause they, you know, don't, aren't reachable, they don't have landlines.
00:38:29.239 --> 00:38:32.090
A re they u ndercounting young people who also don't use landlines?
00:38:32.119 --> 00:38:34.699
I don't happen to have one and I'm not young or living in an inner city.
00:38:34.699 --> 00:38:39.369
So, I mean, I actually got pull call on my cell the other day and I rejected it cause I don't do them.
00:38:39.579 --> 00:38:40.869
But so that's another thing.
00:38:40.871 --> 00:38:43.929
I mean, who's doing them, who's saying, yes, who's saying no, who's lying.
00:38:44.170 --> 00:38:46.210
Who's not because that's another problem.
00:38:46.210 --> 00:38:48.429
People sort of are not really low.
00:38:48.550 --> 00:38:50.469
They don't want to tell the bolster the truth.
00:38:50.471 --> 00:38:53.199
They think for whatever reason, it's inappropriate or what have you.
00:38:53.559 --> 00:39:01.989
So it's just, and then there's all sorts of algorithms and, um, various different math that you applied to weight it and all the rest of it.
00:39:01.990 --> 00:39:04.090
But there's a standard of deviation in every poll.
00:39:04.090 --> 00:39:05.500
So that's another thing to consider.
00:39:05.800 --> 00:39:06.820
I don't, I don't know.
00:39:06.820 --> 00:39:11.349
I don't put much stores by them and certainly like the current mayor of Rochester doesn't either.
00:39:11.800 --> 00:39:15.639
So, you know, if you know the history there, if not, you can just Google it.
00:39:15.641 --> 00:39:16.719
It's not that important.
00:39:16.721 --> 00:39:19.300
But the, the point of the matter is polls can be wrong.
00:39:21.030 --> 00:39:21.920
Well, that's true.
00:39:22.230 --> 00:39:22.980
Polls can be wrong.
00:39:23.760 --> 00:39:38.820
And yet, if you have a lot of poles and you're taking them overlapping periods, are you doing daily polling do augmented the database, taking the oldest ones off and putting the newest ones on and you get systematically the same outcomes.
00:39:38.820 --> 00:39:42.690
You can be more confident that they're telling you something useful.
00:39:43.409 --> 00:39:49.559
However, you have to understand when you have a close outcome, then you don't have any outcome because the close outcome is within the range of area.
00:39:49.561 --> 00:39:51.090
So it's really telling you what to toss up.
00:39:51.090 --> 00:39:51.900
Anybody can win.
00:39:52.380 --> 00:39:55.769
I've been getting a lot of stuff in the fundraising stuff in the mail.
00:39:55.771 --> 00:40:07.349
And, uh, uh, I see Kelly is up by one point, give us money to keep our, u h, K elly i s down by one point gi ven h i s m oney situation.
00:40:07.980 --> 00:40:13.679
And, u h, t he interesting thing is I'm getting far more about Senate races across the country than I ever did before.
00:40:14.610 --> 00:40:31.920
Uh, as this whole, uh, democratic capture of the executive of the entire government is fundamental to implementing the state level priorities of the democratic party when she's coming to rescue of the local governments and the States nationally that are in trouble, including New York, which is in substantial trouble financially.
00:40:32.519 --> 00:40:34.380
So I think Paul's too useful.
00:40:34.500 --> 00:40:44.760
And, and one other thing that I always used to teach when I taught was that there was a, a patina of science about the m ineral and it used to be l egitimising and science tell you what's going to happen.
00:40:45.480 --> 00:40:53.130
Now we have an anti-science party in this country, just as well as a lign t he view.
00:40:53.130 --> 00:40:56.369
I'm not going to believe science on this, a nd I'm not going to believe t hat on a lot of other things.
00:40:56.940 --> 00:41:08.429
So it gets to be an ideological position, whether t o believe p olls or not gets beyond the question of the methodology and limits and sampling and the kinds of issues that Liz talked a bout.
00:41:09.239 --> 00:41:14.460
Well, and so let's assume it's it, you know, we know it's going to be Wednesday when we're listening.
00:41:14.460 --> 00:41:17.519
So the Senate is close.
00:41:17.521 --> 00:41:27.690
And the reason I'm asking is because it seems as if we can't get through the next six months without a stimulus bill, there's just too many people that are hurting.
00:41:28.500 --> 00:41:35.750
And the it, as much as I have concern over the size of the debt, there are just too many people that are hurting.
00:41:35.900 --> 00:41:42.440
And as long as the virus is ramping up, we need to get money to people to survive.
00:41:43.250 --> 00:41:48.710
And I, you know, so will there be a stimulus bill?
00:41:49.099 --> 00:41:56.539
I mean, I don't know how New York gets by the, the MTA, you know, say what you will about it's management needs money.
00:41:57.650 --> 00:42:05.449
And it's a very important, um, uh, part of the infrastructure of the New York state economy.
00:42:06.170 --> 00:42:10.130
So do we, do we get to a stimulus bill regardless of who wins?
00:42:10.809 --> 00:42:12.880
Well, Nancy Pelosi says we will.
00:42:14.079 --> 00:42:18.010
I mean, you know, and then Steve Minutian says, Oh, I read about that in the newspaper.
00:42:18.010 --> 00:42:19.059
I don't know what she's talking about.
00:42:20.079 --> 00:42:36.670
It's hard to say, but I think at some point there will be a bi-partisan hue and cry because the reality is that you've got localities that are run by Republicans and run by Democrats and run by independence in the case of Syracuse, for example, that, uh, need money.
00:42:36.969 --> 00:42:41.829
And it just, it's not a, it's not a partisan issue that people are starving all over, right?
00:42:41.860 --> 00:42:59.110
So it's sort a relater, or you're going to have a re, although the Senate Republicans thus far have been very dug in on their, uh, reluctance to give out a lot of money, um, in terms of their conservative spending habits.
00:42:59.110 --> 00:42:59.409
Right.
00:42:59.411 --> 00:43:03.880
And they don't want to add to the already ridiculous insanity size debt that we have.
00:43:04.179 --> 00:43:12.550
So I don't, I don't think that, uh, we can get along without it certainly, but I don't know what it looks like after the election, something will happen after the election.
00:43:12.550 --> 00:43:13.690
I think that's fair to say.
00:43:13.719 --> 00:43:14.920
I just don't know what it looks like.
00:43:14.920 --> 00:43:20.500
And it'll certainly be smaller if the Republicans are mandatory, then it would be a fun, I think is in charge of it.
00:43:20.501 --> 00:43:29.199
Even if Biden is in charge, the calories, not coming to save New York, it's not going to be$60 billion that drops from the sky to solve a lot of problems.
00:43:29.380 --> 00:43:31.150
It's just, there's going to be, there's going to be cuts.
00:43:31.389 --> 00:43:35.320
There's gotta be revenue enhancement and it's going to be a difficult time.
00:43:36.530 --> 00:43:42.639
Well, in flip, I think there's a chance for historical election outcome.
00:43:44.920 --> 00:43:52.030
I'm not sure, but I think there's a chance regarding the stimulus bill.
00:43:52.389 --> 00:43:58.090
I think new Yorkers need to be aware that there are different degrees of, of a crisis in different parts of the country.
00:43:59.079 --> 00:44:02.980
Some state budgets are or are in reasonable shape.
00:44:03.610 --> 00:44:09.250
Last I looked so the universal expectation or expand is not going to be there.
00:44:09.251 --> 00:44:10.780
It's going to be substantial.
00:44:10.780 --> 00:44:14.559
And as Liz said, bi-partisan, but it's not universal.
00:44:15.250 --> 00:44:21.039
So not every Senator is going to feel the same pressures as every other Senator.
00:44:21.489 --> 00:44:31.980
I also think that people who have a pensions like I do, or, uh, investments and see the stock market drop seven points
00:44:32.699 --> 00:44:34.889
And then recover the next day 300 points.
00:44:34.949 --> 00:44:37.050
Say, thank God.
00:44:38.760 --> 00:44:42.929
If New York doesn't get the 60 billion only gets 40 billion, or we'll be happy state.
00:44:44.400 --> 00:44:50.489
Um, Jerry, you know, D do we go back and, you know, New York city seems to be in such bad shape.
00:44:50.490 --> 00:45:12.900
Fiscally, is this, did we go back to a, an emergency financial control board, the municipal assistance corporation, you know, Mac, and is there a third party entity that is going to have to, um, drive New York city out of the state that it's in?
00:45:14.880 --> 00:45:24.539
Well, I'm you pro you experienced this, but I I'm, uh, really shocked about the suggestions of borrowing for operating expenses.
00:45:25.139 --> 00:45:28.889
I, and I think that's everybody lived through the seventies, right?
00:45:30.119 --> 00:45:39.389
And, uh, I worked for Peter Goldmark, who is, who is principal in, uh, among the principals who, who, who, who helps solve the problem.
00:45:40.289 --> 00:45:54.750
So, uh, I know something informally about this, so yes, I think we're going to get to a control board or an institutional arrangement to bring the city along.
00:45:54.750 --> 00:46:09.389
Especially if we get stimulus money and some kind of external source, because, uh, the credibility of the city's response that it's not just going to distribute revenues and maintain the status quo city government has grown a lot under the current mayor.
00:46:10.110 --> 00:46:16.440
And, uh, and it's hard to argue that under the previous mayor, the city was not performing well.
00:46:16.590 --> 00:46:25.260
I mean, the streets were clean, uh, social services being delivered city with city residents felt relatively safe.
00:46:25.260 --> 00:46:30.630
I know there are a lot of issues of race and police accountability and so on.
00:46:30.630 --> 00:46:31.829
I'm not denying those issues.
00:46:31.920 --> 00:46:32.280
Sure.
00:46:32.739 --> 00:46:44.400
We, we ha we ran New York with less well, and to assure that happens, there's going to have to be, if money comes into Elvis city, as I think it should be the mass transit is the lifeblood of the city.
00:46:44.400 --> 00:46:46.469
You can't have in New York city with the ministry.
00:46:47.969 --> 00:46:51.570
So you have to have accountability and you're going to have to have the oversight.
00:46:51.880 --> 00:46:52.110
And it's not,
00:46:52.250 --> 00:46:54.289
You can say that about so many things dead.
00:46:54.349 --> 00:46:56.599
Like the schools are the lifeblood of the city.
00:46:56.601 --> 00:46:58.489
You can't have the city, unless you have schools.
00:46:58.519 --> 00:47:01.489
The, the offices are the lifeblood of the city.
00:47:01.490 --> 00:47:05.239
You can't have the city, unless you have jobs like the parks are the lifeblood of the city.
00:47:05.329 --> 00:47:06.530
You canvas city, unless you parks.
00:47:06.530 --> 00:47:09.349
I mean, like all the restaurants and the, the theater.
00:47:09.351 --> 00:47:10.849
I mean, there are so many things I do.
00:47:10.969 --> 00:47:20.329
I agree, of course, mass transit is probably higher up on the food chain than some of those other things, but there are so many problems right now in the city.
00:47:20.570 --> 00:47:27.380
I mean, the homelessness issue alone is just, and what's significant prior to the pandemic, just, just to be clear.
00:47:27.380 --> 00:47:39.070
I mean, some of these issues predated the pandemic and then subsequently let us remember in the middle of the pandemic, when the, when the subways were just a huge problem and nobody was writing the governor, shut them down at night to clean them.
00:47:39.099 --> 00:47:39.940
And they've been doing that.
00:47:39.940 --> 00:47:41.380
They're still doing that actually.
00:47:41.380 --> 00:47:43.329
And they're cleaner than they've ever been.
00:47:43.331 --> 00:47:59.860
People tell me, I mean, I haven't been to the city in months, but people are telling me that the subway system, you know, it looks, it looks great in terms of the, of the cars, although there's, there's also an uptake in graffiti and there's an uptick in crime and there's, uh, there's a lot of, there's just a lot of problems that, uh, that have to be solved.
00:48:00.670 --> 00:48:07.030
Um, and you know, there's a mayor's race next year, since we're talking about elections and, uh, it's going to be a difficult one,
00:48:08.579 --> 00:48:16.019
How that might, how about my university, my heart and soul being decimated financially, potentially.
00:48:16.170 --> 00:48:17.849
And actually, yeah, I bet.
00:48:18.090 --> 00:48:21.119
How about the city university and how about the community colleges?
00:48:22.260 --> 00:48:22.980
I have a great friend.
00:48:22.981 --> 00:48:44.309
Who's been working at LaGuardia community college for four decades and the social mobility that arose in that place where immigrant populations and let's listen, fluent people going to school and going to work at the same time, the, the whole of new York's commitment to, to, to, uh, people challenged and rising.
00:48:45.090 --> 00:48:48.900
And it's been centuries long is at stake.
00:48:50.070 --> 00:48:54.960
And, uh, it's emotionally powerful.
00:48:56.130 --> 00:48:59.849
Anybody who's worked in their life and creating opportunity.
00:49:00.269 --> 00:49:06.119
I used to say that working for the university was one of the greatest jobs in the world because you weren't fixing a problem.
00:49:06.809 --> 00:49:14.400
U m, however important that is you weren't helping people with special needs to get through the day, which of course was important.
00:49:14.400 --> 00:49:21.659
B ut w hat y ou're doing was taking the opportunity to give people t he chance to have a better life f orever.
00:49:23.159 --> 00:49:40.019
A nd, and, and we're g onna, and w e're, we're on, o n the brink, on the verge of giving that a ll up an idea of what g overnment's for giving that up, and that's shocking and emotionally difficult.
00:49:40.980 --> 00:49:47.280
So, but Liz, let me ask you, is this a general, is this a generational thing also?
00:49:47.280 --> 00:49:57.420
So like back in the day when New York city went through its fiscal crisis, there was a sense of, um, we've got to fix its finances yet.
00:49:57.989 --> 00:50:11.670
You know, there was a whole generation of people now due to social justice issues due to environmental issues, climate change, that wouldn't ness that say those issues need to rise also to the top of the pile.
00:50:11.969 --> 00:50:14.849
So how does this all get sorted out?
00:50:14.969 --> 00:50:22.110
You know, either historically, Jerry, as you said earlier in the conversation that there have been tough parts, but the country.
00:50:22.119 --> 00:50:32.000
So any sense on that, because we're still going to be polarized no matter what happens, no matter whether Biden wins, Trump wins, the country is still going to be polarized.
00:50:32.150 --> 00:50:40.699
There still will be a virus won the election that, you know, you know, the, the day this airs, it'll still be a prominent concern.
00:50:40.701 --> 00:50:48.829
But, um, I'm trying to think of how do we want to end this discussion and try to give people something positive to think about?
00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:52.960
Well, I don't think that these things don't have to all be mutually exclusive.
00:50:53.199 --> 00:51:06.489
And so, you know, I think, uh, when you talk about policy, you talk about baking into policy concerns about social justice and how the climate will be impacted.
00:51:06.519 --> 00:51:22.300
And so, for example, when you are looking to incentivize development, you only agree to provide taxpayer funded initiatives to buildings that are net neutral in terms of their carbon imprint on the environment.
00:51:22.300 --> 00:51:32.050
For example, you only agree government has the ability to incentivize businesses and to give them various different perks and tax breaks.
00:51:32.050 --> 00:51:34.059
And I'm certain that that's all going to be on the table too.
00:51:34.061 --> 00:51:55.420
When we come back to Albany and have this discussion, because that discussion's already been going on for awhile, but you only agree to incentivize businesses that have an equity pledge, uh, in their built into their foundation of being that their board has a certain equity makeup that they agree to hire a certain percentage of new Yorkers.
00:51:55.539 --> 00:52:01.239
And some of those new Yorkers are going to be people of color or people of a certain income bracket, et cetera.
00:52:01.269 --> 00:52:07.360
I mean, government can use its considerable clout to make decisions.
00:52:07.360 --> 00:52:13.599
That's what budgets are blueprints of, of decisions of moral investment.
00:52:13.659 --> 00:52:14.349
Effectively.
00:52:14.351 --> 00:52:28.780
You make a decision based on your dollars and your expenditures about what you think is important, and that's how you demonstrate and you move the consciousness of people, um, and you listened to the electorate and, and you act accordingly.
00:52:28.840 --> 00:52:33.159
I, it doesn't all have to be so strided and siloed.
00:52:33.940 --> 00:52:34.239
Okay.
00:52:34.989 --> 00:52:36.760
Jerry, I'll give you the last word
00:52:38.500 --> 00:52:38.500
Me.
00:52:38.989 --> 00:52:39.369
Yes.
00:52:40.840 --> 00:52:44.230
I'm going to tell you a little parable and you, you raised the Vietnam war.
00:52:44.260 --> 00:52:53.800
When I was a graduate student at Columbia in the sixties, I was going to school during the Vietnam war and the American flag got to be a symbol of one side.
00:52:55.780 --> 00:53:05.079
He saw police officers and firemen word, w ord flags on their, on their, on their shirts, d emonstrate labor activists w ere flags.
00:53:05.081 --> 00:53:11.980
They were conservative Democrats, and then confronted the students who were regarded as more r adical during nine 11.
00:53:13.869 --> 00:53:19.449
I walked down the street i n, u h, on the West side and there was a flag i n every window.
00:53:21.820 --> 00:53:29.039
The crisis had created flag and every liberal Democrat on the West side of Manhattan.
00:53:32.760 --> 00:53:56.579
So we can hope and expect will still be polarized, but we can hope and expect if you, if the crisis persists, it's the cost keeping imposed on us and social injustice and, uh, uh, health failure to address core and murder his health circumstances.
00:53:57.360 --> 00:54:03.000
We have a chance to respond collectively and we've demonstrated, and we have the capacity to do that.
00:54:03.239 --> 00:54:13.199
So that's the hope, hope is planning to confront the crisis because it challenges all of us and creates a certain unity, at least in the moment.
00:54:14.969 --> 00:54:16.170
Um, dr.
00:54:16.170 --> 00:54:18.539
Gal Benjamin, Liz, Benjamin.
00:54:18.840 --> 00:54:19.860
Thank you so much for you.
00:54:21.260 --> 00:54:30.710
Uh, I'm sure this is a conversation that would go on for hours, but thank you for your time this morning, you should come to our house sometime and see how that goes.
00:54:33.079 --> 00:54:40.400
One c an s tand in supportable to hang out with us long diatribe, various different political or stories.
00:54:41.900 --> 00:54:42.530
Great pleasure.
00:54:42.530 --> 00:54:43.519
Thank you for the opportunity.
00:54:43.880 --> 00:54:45.530
Well, thank you both very much.
00:54:47.030 --> 00:54:50.960
Thank you for tuning in to patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast.
00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:59.179
For more information about this episode, visit our website pattern for progress.org forward slash podcast.
00:00:03.540 --> 00:00:11.939
We are experiencing a paradigm shift, a fundamental change in the way we usually do things.
00:00:13.740 --> 00:00:19.920
We are intentionally choosing to see the silver lining opportunity arises.
00:00:22.710 --> 00:00:57.359
We can shine a light on the things that weren't working well on those things that weren't really working at all, we can regroup reevaluate and re-engineer it's time to explore new patterns and paradigms those that inspire us to rise above the chaos and explore how the conditions of today can take us to a better tomorrow patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast from Hudson Valley pattern for progress.
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You're listening to episode seven election day is done.
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What's next with your host pattern, president and CEO, Jonathan Dropkin.
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Hi everyone.
00:01:08.301 --> 00:01:13.219
And welcome to this week's episode of patterns and paradigms.
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You may hear in the background, my wind chimes as there are wind gusts of up to 60 miles an hour here in Sullivan County.
00:01:22.129 --> 00:01:38.569
In last week's episode, we had a spirited discussion with Kent gardener of CGR and Michael and dolo looking at the future of regional economic development and restructuring of local government as the pandemic and the disruptive economy continue.
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We will undoubtedly return to this subject.
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If you have any questions or comments, please send them to pattern for progress.org/podcast.
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And please remember to subscribe to our podcast, which is available on Apple, Amazon music, Spotify, Google tune in and Stitcher.
00:02:00.170 --> 00:02:05.810
This week's pattern and paradigm trend in keeping with an election day theme.
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For this episode, prior to Tuesday, some States are already above their 2016 turnout for voting while many are close to it.
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Now, whether this is a trend with regard to voting in presidential elections, you will have to be with us four years from now.
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It is a strong sign of engagement for this election.
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And we think that is a good thing.
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And that happened despite some efforts to inhibit voting.
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So it is ironic that this year's turnout may in fact be the largest ever in light of election day.
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We're going to have a special edition of parent patterns and paradigms while we recorded the episode on Friday, October 30th, it is airing today, November 4th, the day after election day, myself and our guests did our best to avoid any predictions that we will be sorry about.
00:03:04.990 --> 00:03:08.050
But I think a few of them still found their way in there.
00:03:09.069 --> 00:03:17.860
Our segment with Joe on patterns, activities, we'll be back with us next week in order to devote more time to our special guests, dr.
00:03:17.860 --> 00:03:52.300
Gerald Benjamin emeritus, founding director of the Benjamin center, distinguished professor of political science and the associate vice president for regional engagement all at the state university of New York at new Paltz and our other guests, Liz Benjamin, a veteran of two decades of reporting on state and local government during which time she hosted must-see TV Capitol tonight here in New York and was also the editor of the s how's blog, the state of politics.
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And yes, for those of you keeping track, they are father and daughter, a nd between them, their knowledge of state and local government is simply extraordinary.
00:04:02.830 --> 00:04:05.050
Jerry and Liz, welcome to the show.
00:04:06.009 --> 00:04:07.210
How are both of you doing
00:04:08.849 --> 00:04:09.210
Dad?
00:04:09.211 --> 00:04:10.229
You want to take that one?
00:04:12.689 --> 00:04:13.439
I'm doing fine.
00:04:14.430 --> 00:04:15.330
Uh, thank God.
00:04:15.330 --> 00:04:29.790
My family all is healthy and safe and keeping a low profile and, uh, trying to remain interest interesting and interested in activity in New York matters.
00:04:30.769 --> 00:04:30.769
Hmm.
00:04:31.680 --> 00:04:33.899
I guess I could just say I'm still here.
00:04:34.649 --> 00:04:38.910
We're all still here, which is the most positive thing that one can s ave these days, right?
00:04:39.689 --> 00:04:40.560
I think so.
00:04:40.589 --> 00:04:47.910
And I think, um, the, the notion of remaining positive throughout this is going to have to be part of our DNA.
00:04:48.810 --> 00:04:51.629
Um, so let's just jump in.
00:04:51.630 --> 00:04:56.699
Some have said that this is the most consequential election in our lifetimes.
00:04:57.029 --> 00:04:57.839
Do you agree?
00:04:58.769 --> 00:04:59.550
Disagree?
00:05:00.209 --> 00:05:03.720
You know, I feel like that's a phrase that's been tossed around quite a bit.
00:05:04.560 --> 00:05:06.629
Um, and I'm not sure necessarily.
00:05:06.810 --> 00:05:13.170
And each time that it is employed, it is certainly you can make a case for it and you can make a case against it.
00:05:13.170 --> 00:05:23.910
I don't know, never have we had this particular set of circumstances necessarily, but the Mo I mean, every election is consequential and matters in people's lives.
00:05:24.149 --> 00:05:25.740
Uh, this one is significant.
00:05:25.740 --> 00:05:28.740
Of course, we have an ongoing pandemic.
00:05:28.740 --> 00:05:34.139
We have the attendant economic fallout that is hitting New York in particular, very hard.
00:05:34.800 --> 00:05:38.759
And it's g onna probably take years to recover from New York.
00:05:38.879 --> 00:05:41.339
U h, we're going a little slower, particularly in N ew York city.
00:05:41.341 --> 00:05:47.430
So it's very significant, but I mean the most significant, I don't know, that's a little hyperbole.
00:05:48.240 --> 00:05:50.850
Well, and, and Jerry, any contextual
00:05:52.160 --> 00:05:55.050
First point, I would say that is that my lifetime is longer.
00:05:57.800 --> 00:05:59.689
It covers a bigger period of time.
00:06:00.680 --> 00:06:08.959
I, I think that, uh, it probably is the most important election in my lifetime.
00:06:08.961 --> 00:06:16.850
And the reason for that is that it engages the persistence in survival of our system of government.
00:06:18.470 --> 00:06:26.779
Now, I think that, uh, that the system has been eroding it's it's, it's, it's, uh, it's challenges that it currently faces.
00:06:26.781 --> 00:06:36.139
Didn't just arrive in whole cloth, but, uh, we have a leadership not committed, not committed to democratic process.
00:06:36.649 --> 00:06:43.550
And we have elevation of the executive at every level in government to the, uh, at the cost of the representative branch.
00:06:44.329 --> 00:06:53.300
And, uh, we have, uh, a contempt for democracy that we discover is shared by a significant portion of our population.
00:06:54.290 --> 00:07:03.680
So, uh, I think that makes it important beyond the immediate kinds of concerns, economics, social, which are very challenging and very, uh, contentious.
00:07:04.250 --> 00:07:05.269
So that's my,
00:07:06.100 --> 00:07:33.519
And, and, and historically, um, I go all the way back to, you know, following Lincoln, uh, Lincoln's assassination, the presidential election resulted in a Republican group of, um, people that were responsible for creating the, um, adjustments that were made after the civil war.
00:07:33.521 --> 00:07:40.240
And that was consequential and then jump up to, you know, 1968.
00:07:40.240 --> 00:07:42.550
And, and that was consequential.
00:07:42.550 --> 00:08:02.709
So is it that we really it's the lived experience that this is happening to us now, and that's closer to what Liz is saying that maybe it's not the most consequential, but it's happening now versus historically there were other consequential presidential elections.
00:08:03.100 --> 00:08:12.550
I guess what I'm getting at is that the, I I've spoken to enough, people that have said is that this is the most important moment in time.
00:08:13.149 --> 00:08:18.970
I, for one had always thought the sixties as a totality was the most important period of time.
00:08:19.389 --> 00:08:31.600
2020 is clearly giving the sixties a run for its money, but there have been other consequential, u h, times of consequence in which case I'm looking for.
00:08:31.660 --> 00:08:37.299
Is there a sense that because we're living through it that we don't understand?
00:08:37.570 --> 00:08:38.110
Yeah.
00:08:38.139 --> 00:08:40.000
There've been other times like this.
00:08:40.899 --> 00:08:52.779
Well, particularly if you're young, you don't have any reference point other than what you've read in history books or learn in school, but you know, the sixties, you bring up the sixties.
00:08:52.780 --> 00:09:01.950
And certainly there's a lot of echoes of the sixties that we're seeing here in our civil unrest, a call for widespread change, uh, significant clashes that are occurring in the street.
00:09:02.100 --> 00:09:08.909
And then layered on top of that is the added stress and threat of the ongoing worldwide pandemic.
00:09:08.910 --> 00:09:20.580
I mean, I don't know that we've ever had at this moment, so many corresponding layers of problems, but, you know, I, I mean, if I had been alive during the civil war, maybe I would've said something different to you.
00:09:20.581 --> 00:09:27.419
So I think that a lot of it has to do with context and to some degree, this is, I mean, it's an interesting question to debate.
00:09:27.470 --> 00:09:28.799
It's an esoteric question.
00:09:28.801 --> 00:09:33.269
I mean, what really, what we really want is to motivate people, to get engaged.
00:09:33.270 --> 00:09:50.490
And if this in fact has motivated people to get engaged, and it seems like it's, since we solved these crazy lines for people waiting to vote and, you know, young people really engaged and maybe to the level of the Obama, uh, elections, we don't know because we'll have to see the numbers and, you know, final tallies there.
00:09:50.970 --> 00:10:10.470
Um, and I don't know, and, and, and dad, you might be able to chime in on this, but I don't know if ever that threat to democracy in terms of the question of the veracity of the vote has ever been this widespread and significant because of the added complexity of the mail-in ballot search.
00:10:12.129 --> 00:10:14.600
It's not the most consequential election in American history.
00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:15.230
That's for sure.
00:10:16.039 --> 00:10:18.379
It's not, it's not, it's interesting.
00:10:18.620 --> 00:10:58.820
The most consequential election in American history, A-list 1800, the orderly transference of power from one party to another very important 1860, the election of Lincoln, which triggered, u h, the civil war, which w ould have destroyed the nation very important, 1876 w hen the electoral college d eadlock a nd, and the system could have collapsed and they not negotiated an outcome, however, problematic, u h, 1928 and, and management of the depression, u h, you r aise the sixties, which I think are a very close analogy to c ontempt t o, to contemporary times.
00:10:59.330 --> 00:11:00.259
So you're right.
00:11:00.260 --> 00:11:07.909
I mean, people, u h, more than r ight, perfectly right to say that people are present this a nd don't have an historic context.
00:11:08.659 --> 00:11:17.149
U m, I also think that, u h, one thing that's happened to me now that we w e re k ind of shut in is I am actually watching television an d i t's n ot baseball.
00:11:18.960 --> 00:11:32.360
And, and, u h, s o I'm bingeing on some shows, shows that I never saw like the secretary, wh ich, which everybody so ber m e, u h, a t the secretary of state, Madam secretary, Ma dam s ecretary.
00:11:32.720 --> 00:11:46.370
And I feel like the election is p eople saying, we've been living through this every episode of this bizarre experience, an d w e're go ing t o g et to see how it comes out, except th ere, they may not be yo ur f ollowing season.
00:11:46.820 --> 00:11:51.139
So yo u w atch it.
00:11:52.990 --> 00:11:54.460
I find this funny because,
00:11:54.789 --> 00:12:01.149
Um, you know, first of all, he's never been a television Sainato, but, um, I'm not.
00:12:01.150 --> 00:12:11.679
And I, and I actually, there was an interesting story, uh, in the news this morning on the morning that we're having this conversation, that Netflix is actually raising its rates, which is probably gonna make people really angry.
00:12:12.429 --> 00:12:16.179
But, um, I've tried a bunch of shows that were really popular with people.
00:12:16.181 --> 00:12:19.059
And, um, I can't really get into any of them.
00:12:19.340 --> 00:12:25.029
The problem might be that I stare at a computer screen all day long, and I'm not really interested in staring at any more screens at the end of the day.
00:12:25.840 --> 00:12:31.870
Um, and, uh, part of the, one of the vagaries of working at home is that you really never s top working.
00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:35.919
There's just no real work-life balance.
00:12:35.950 --> 00:12:39.129
I mean, my work and life is taking place in the same place.
00:12:39.129 --> 00:12:46.779
Like literally I could get up and walk five feet to get to the home bedroom and the home kitchen and the home bathroom.
00:12:46.780 --> 00:12:46.990
Right.
00:12:46.990 --> 00:12:54.340
So it's not, um, I find that my work is taking a lot of time and I don't really have a lot of, um, opportunities for binge-watching.
00:12:54.399 --> 00:12:55.840
I guess I tried Schitt's Creek.
00:12:56.019 --> 00:12:57.159
A lot of people like it.
00:12:57.549 --> 00:13:00.190
I tried the Ozarks, a lot of people like that.
00:13:00.309 --> 00:13:03.879
My husband had really enjoyed queen of the South, so I couldn't get into it too violent.
00:13:04.570 --> 00:13:09.399
Um, I just, just can't really get into any of it, unfortunately, which makes me pretty boring, but
00:13:10.200 --> 00:13:11.789
No, I don't know if it makes me boring.
00:13:11.791 --> 00:13:12.600
It's kind of interesting.
00:13:12.600 --> 00:13:28.200
We, we run a mid career, um, training program called the pattern fellows program and the, we do these icebreaker questions and every year, um, I thought it would be an interesting question to ask, what book are you reading?
00:13:28.649 --> 00:13:33.840
Well, after a while it got to a point where people were saying, well, I don't really read books.
00:13:33.870 --> 00:13:35.610
I watch Netflix.
00:13:35.970 --> 00:13:40.350
Well, so then this year I said, what are you watching on Netflix?
00:13:40.649 --> 00:13:47.250
And they said, Oh, in the pandemic, I've gone back to reading books and I've said, I can't win.
00:13:47.370 --> 00:13:48.029
I can't win.
00:13:48.210 --> 00:13:48.690
So
00:13:49.710 --> 00:13:52.379
I'm glad for the book resurgence actually.
00:13:52.380 --> 00:14:08.850
And, um, I'm really, I find it amusing that, you know, one's backdrop, apparently this like a thing now that if you don't have the power broker on your bookshelf, behind you, in your zoom call or your team's call, then particularly in certain circles, you know, you're, you've definitely come down a few pegs.
00:14:08.879 --> 00:14:09.059
Right.
00:14:09.061 --> 00:14:10.830
I have mine by the way, it's downstairs.
00:14:10.831 --> 00:14:12.090
I do own the power broker.
00:14:12.091 --> 00:14:14.039
So just in case, anybody's wondering,
00:14:14.330 --> 00:14:18.059
I went to journalism school at Columbia, they signed the power broker.
00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:18.960
Yeah.
00:14:19.259 --> 00:14:20.399
I'm sure they did.
00:14:20.400 --> 00:14:21.450
I mine's here.
00:14:21.451 --> 00:14:22.230
It's indifferent.
00:14:22.259 --> 00:14:23.429
It's all broken up.
00:14:23.460 --> 00:14:24.600
But, um, right.
00:14:24.629 --> 00:14:30.480
And she, she, she told me that and I said a good 400 page book that takes a thousand pages to read.
00:14:32.279 --> 00:14:33.360
All right, let's take you.
00:14:33.600 --> 00:14:36.179
It's the day after election voter turnout.
00:14:37.110 --> 00:14:47.340
Um, the screen on 60 minutes said yesterday that 60% of the voters had already cast the ballot.
00:14:48.659 --> 00:14:52.279
Um, as of yesterday, are we heading to just
00:14:52.340 --> 00:14:54.440
An incredibly record turnout?
00:14:54.980 --> 00:14:55.549
I hope so.
00:14:56.169 --> 00:15:04.509
I mean, you know, what's interesting though, is that the president in all his wisdom or lack thereof basically was like questioning.
00:15:04.809 --> 00:15:08.889
There's going to be widespread fraud and all these mail-in ballots, et cetera, and so forth.
00:15:09.190 --> 00:15:14.889
And I wonder if that's sort of, he shot himself in the foot because people were like, Holy, I can't do this mail-in thing.
00:15:14.890 --> 00:15:17.080
I got to go show up at early voting instead.
00:15:17.081 --> 00:15:22.389
And so people are waiting on these lines and in New York, you know, which, which is interesting.
00:15:22.390 --> 00:15:31.179
You can mail your absentee in and then change your mind and go in person and they void your absentee and they take the ballot that you filed, um, in person.
00:15:32.169 --> 00:15:34.809
Um, so you actually can, you can do both.
00:15:34.840 --> 00:15:37.419
You can vote twice, but only one vote counts.
00:15:37.809 --> 00:15:40.059
U h, I guess you could change your mind if you felt like it.
00:15:40.090 --> 00:15:53.169
I mean, I h appen to vote absentee, u m, instead a little career when I dropped it in the mailbox, but, u h, I think a lot of people, u m, are concerned because the president has raised the question a nd the spectrum.
00:15:53.200 --> 00:15:58.389
And also they've seen the reports about the us postal service a nd, and the changes in the cuts that have been made there.
00:15:58.390 --> 00:15:59.950
And they're experiencing it.
00:15:59.951 --> 00:16:02.169
You buy something on Amazon takes you three weeks to get it.
00:16:02.171 --> 00:16:05.320
So maybe you shouldn't mail by mail your ballot in
00:16:07.149 --> 00:16:07.149
Jerry.
00:16:07.720 --> 00:16:12.519
I think there's been a very, very high level of stimulus.
00:16:14.049 --> 00:16:27.220
Um, I expect when we look at the numbers, finally, we're going to see that elevated participation in every demographic, but the same differences among demographics maintained, relatively speaking.
00:16:28.259 --> 00:16:36.460
Uh, I think it's a lot easier to vote and, uh, there's a lot of different ways you can vote now, and there's a longer time period to voting.
00:16:36.461 --> 00:16:38.529
So there's some issues go away.
00:16:38.530 --> 00:16:40.120
Like, can I get a babysitter?
00:16:40.899 --> 00:16:42.580
I don't drive in the rain.
00:16:43.899 --> 00:16:51.700
My spouse has the car, you know, all those, uh, all those, uh, impediments, uh, are diminished.
00:16:52.029 --> 00:16:55.539
We still have legal challenges in New York that we have to deal with on this.
00:16:56.769 --> 00:17:05.890
So a turn and yet, if we get massive turnout, we'll still have a third to third or more of the, of the eligible population not voting.
00:17:06.009 --> 00:17:09.490
So that's a remaining, uh, Manny challenge.
00:17:09.730 --> 00:17:20.740
Well, is this one of the ironies of this election that with all the talk of voter suppression, it may in fact be the largest turnout ever.
00:17:21.519 --> 00:17:26.230
And is that an irony or i s, or would G2 like to destroy that concept?
00:17:26.500 --> 00:17:31.359
Well, first of all, even if it's the largest turnout ever as dad just mentioned, it's not enough.
00:17:31.450 --> 00:17:47.740
I mean, you know, even if we get to 50% still not enough, and this is something that, you know, when I did have a public platform, now you're giving me a brief return to my soap box, which I really appreciate, but I used to rail against this and just, you know, call on people.
00:17:48.140 --> 00:17:49.680
The turnout is pathetic.
00:17:49.740 --> 00:17:55.890
And some of that is because people in New York think that their vote doesn't count because you know, it's going to the, state's going to go to Biden.
00:17:55.891 --> 00:17:57.930
So, Oh, well, why should I bother?
00:17:57.931 --> 00:18:00.930
But there's a lot of contested state races and congressional seats.
00:18:00.931 --> 00:18:06.450
And so every four years, you know, and the presidential race does traditionally cause an uptick in turnout.
00:18:07.559 --> 00:18:13.230
Uh, and, and really, but this it's the very foundation of our democracy, your capability of voting.
00:18:13.230 --> 00:18:14.490
And so you should exercise it.
00:18:14.490 --> 00:18:25.740
It's, it's an amazing privilege and a right, but also what's expected of you as a citizen of this country and this state, that's just, it's a pretty low bar for your citizenship.
00:18:25.950 --> 00:18:27.329
You don't really have to do very much.
00:18:27.359 --> 00:18:34.019
All you have to do is go to the, go, just go to the polls, get some basic information about who you're looking at and make a choice.
00:18:34.259 --> 00:18:35.519
That's all we ask of you.
00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:37.740
And, uh, we don't ask for very much.
00:18:37.769 --> 00:18:49.619
So I think that, that, uh, the participation and, you know, the Democrats, since they took over control of the state legislature have certainly made some inroads toward trying to make it easier to vote.
00:18:49.710 --> 00:18:51.480
But, you know, some countries pay people to vote.
00:18:51.539 --> 00:18:56.970
Some like some countries give you the whole day off some countries like Peru find you, if you don't vote.
00:18:57.180 --> 00:19:03.569
And then subsequently you're not actually eligible to go to a publicly funded college.
00:19:03.599 --> 00:19:11.579
If you have not voted, for example, I mean, I'm not suggesting we get that draconian, but I think that we need to do more to encourage people to participate,
00:19:14.839 --> 00:19:18.049
Carrie, any, any, can I be against more voting?
00:19:18.440 --> 00:19:33.650
No, I know that you couldn't be against more voting, but I, I often, I think back to the sixties also, and I know that you and I sort of have lived through that experience and that even that didn't cause more people to come out and vote.
00:19:34.009 --> 00:19:40.910
So I just hope that the numbers are trending in the way that they suggest that there will be more turnout.
00:19:40.911 --> 00:19:43.519
We did make it easier for people to vote.
00:19:43.520 --> 00:19:48.289
I think that, uh, you know, I think we're looking at a competitive national election and that's a motivator.
00:19:49.200 --> 00:19:50.000
Absolutely.
00:19:50.210 --> 00:20:00.200
And when you look at, uh, Liz made a very good point that this is not the only election, uh, happening this year.
00:20:00.230 --> 00:20:12.230
And in fact, uh, the United States, people in the United States are asked to vote for more offices in any other country on the same day, in the same circumstance.
00:20:12.890 --> 00:20:23.779
And they're asked to vote more frequently than people in any other country because we have primary elections and we have local elections and we have all these responsibilities that voters have.
00:20:23.780 --> 00:20:28.160
So, uh, we, we demand, we demand relatively more voters than most in most countries.
00:20:29.150 --> 00:20:52.690
And, uh, it's fundamentally important for legitimizing and sustaining the political system, which is my initial point, but, but we need to have a competitive environment and in New York where we're increasingly not competitive in most places, and people are looking at no effective choice, they're not encouraged to vote just to make a statement that voting is a good thing.
00:20:53.220 --> 00:21:04.200
Well, and to be clear, we're actually moving into a, uh, era when we're probably going to have even less competition I expect because there's going to be another round of redistricting.
00:21:04.201 --> 00:21:37.019
And given the trends that we've been seeing in New York in terms of Democrat growth in registration and out migration, that continues in upstate New York in particular, um, you're likely to see, and if the Democrats maintain, which is expected control of the legislature, which means that are controlling the legislative redistricting process, you're going to see, uh, less gerrymandered districts, which is certainly positive, but as a result, that will be less competitive for Republicans, which is kind of a switch because Republicans controlled the redistricting process and drew the line specifically to benefit them.
00:21:37.440 --> 00:21:46.049
But now you're going to see the Democrats redraw the lines based on a more realistic outlook of what the trends and the registration looks like.
00:21:46.050 --> 00:21:47.309
And the population looks like.
00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:58.049
And as a result, you're going to have a lot more intro party battles and more regional battles, as you know, conservative versus pragmatic versus liberal Democrats, all vying for various different.
00:21:58.410 --> 00:22:03.029
I was shifting the competitive environment to, uh, to the primary elections.
00:22:04.349 --> 00:22:15.269
So, uh, something I'm writing about now, which is less attended to is a very high proportion of New York elected officials, elected vacancies that arise.
00:22:15.299 --> 00:22:18.329
I just counted by chance.
00:22:18.330 --> 00:22:26.039
I happened to be counting yesterday, the number of special elections in the tooth last two decades of the state legislature, and t hey were upwards of 65.
00:22:27.210 --> 00:22:30.119
So, u m, these are low turnout elections.
00:22:30.121 --> 00:22:39.269
So w e're talking about t urn o ut in the general election, but the decisions are going to be in a low turnout elections, held in less v isual times, less expected times for voters.
00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:45.440
And you look at these elections i n t here, and they're quite close in a lot of jurisdictions that are regarded as n on-competitive.
00:22:45.480 --> 00:22:52.259
You look at special elections in the Bronx o r primary elections in certain parts of Brooklyn, which are overwhelmingly democratic.
00:22:52.740 --> 00:22:59.130
And you find that you're getting, you're getting six, seven, 8,000 voters, but the e lection i s decided by two or 300 votes.
00:22:59.730 --> 00:22:59.880
So
00:23:00.359 --> 00:23:01.559
Why you need to vote?
00:23:04.589 --> 00:23:11.519
Just say, absolutely.
00:23:11.520 --> 00:23:12.720
We couldn't say it enough.
00:23:12.721 --> 00:23:15.210
Unfortunately, the show will air on the day.
00:23:16.319 --> 00:23:17.220
There'll be more elections.
00:23:17.221 --> 00:23:17.970
God-willing water.
00:23:18.029 --> 00:23:19.380
We're going to all have more of them.
00:23:19.619 --> 00:23:20.430
Absolutely.
00:23:20.730 --> 00:23:22.109
Liz way to say this.
00:23:22.111 --> 00:23:26.369
So it's your opinion that the Senate will not flip in New York state?
00:23:28.079 --> 00:23:29.579
Nope, no shot, no.
00:23:29.759 --> 00:23:39.750
I mean, the re the main question is whether the Democrats will win a veto proof majority, a super majority, that you only need two seats to do it.
00:23:40.049 --> 00:23:44.880
U m, there are a lot of open seats and there's 10 vacant seats as a result of Republican.
00:23:45.980 --> 00:23:47.630
Some of those are likely p ickups.
00:23:48.019 --> 00:23:54.019
U h, there are some current marginal Democrats who might be, u m, u h, in, in danger.
00:23:54.020 --> 00:23:56.450
I'm not gonna name any names, c ause this is a p ost-election chefs.
00:23:57.200 --> 00:24:05.539
I don't want to look too stupid, but you know, the super majority now, just to be clear, you know, the legislature doesn't go around overriding the governor every day.
00:24:05.539 --> 00:24:06.829
It hasn't happened quite some time.
00:24:06.830 --> 00:24:18.380
It happened a couple of times to George Pataki, uh, which was interesting because at the time it was, uh, speaker silver and Joe Bruno, the majority leader who was a Republican and silver was a Democrat, upstate downstate.
00:24:18.381 --> 00:24:33.920
They had very different interests, but sometimes they got together and ganged up on Republican Pataki, uh, governor Cuomo, who of course is a very powerful individual, even more so than the executive sort of entrenched executive power that we have in New York.
00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:39.109
Uh, his ability to wield that is quite significant and his political clout and prowess is significant.
00:24:39.140 --> 00:24:43.609
The legislature has never actually gone so far as to try to override one of his vetoes.
00:24:43.611 --> 00:24:44.329
It's a tough thing.
00:24:44.330 --> 00:24:49.789
Two thirds vote of both houses, just be cause y ou have a super majority, it doesn't mean you're gonna be able to hang everybody together.
00:24:49.790 --> 00:24:53.390
You're going to be able to have everybody present for a vote in the age of COVID.
00:24:53.599 --> 00:24:57.529
I don't even know if that's possible because you know, people are all over the place.
00:24:57.530 --> 00:25:01.009
So, u h, b ut it's something to threaten him with.
00:25:01.010 --> 00:25:04.970
Certainly that has not actually been there before in the Senate, the assembly has it.
00:25:05.450 --> 00:25:07.940
Uh, s o that's what the Senate is trying to do.
00:25:07.941 --> 00:25:10.609
I don't think the Republicans are go nna m ake a co meback p robably ever.
00:25:11.589 --> 00:25:11.920
Okay.
00:25:11.950 --> 00:25:21.039
So, so wait, let right now, are we still operating state government by executive order, in which case?
00:25:22.119 --> 00:25:24.880
Um, what, what does that do?
00:25:24.881 --> 00:25:33.069
And, and, and Jerry, what does that do to the, you know, sort of checks and balances, then, you know, that is, what's the role of the legislature.
00:25:33.070 --> 00:25:40.750
If the governor is just saying, Hey, I'm in charge and here's the executive order, and I get to control what happens.
00:25:41.529 --> 00:25:51.039
And the guy was going to check here, if it wasn't given into perpetuity, but it looks like the crises are going to extend beyond the year.
00:25:51.040 --> 00:25:52.720
So we're going to have to address that question.
00:25:53.500 --> 00:25:59.859
And the legislature is also voting without being present, as Liz said, yes.
00:26:00.130 --> 00:26:13.630
The idea of a deliberative assembly is challenged when people aren't in the same room, even though we're unfortunately accustomed to the debates, mean meaning little or nothing in policy-making in New York because of the party discipline that prevails in the legislation.
00:26:14.230 --> 00:26:17.680
So we have some very important institutional issues to face.
00:26:17.710 --> 00:26:27.250
And as I, as I tried to mention, uh, earlier they're, they're universal, they're at every level of government has been elevated.
00:26:27.640 --> 00:26:45.089
I think it has a lot to do with changes in society, changes in communications, expect reaffirm what we call reification for getting me in academe, you know, centering the idea of government and one person, you know, that p erson's in charge of the complex separation of power is elusive i n some people.
00:26:45.090 --> 00:26:47.519
So, u h, I think there's real challenges.
00:26:47.520 --> 00:26:57.390
That's why I think the veto proof majority i s, are, are interesting because they offer the opportunity to assert the institution's role and responsibility.
00:26:58.259 --> 00:27:01.109
I once had a conversation with Mario C ole very quickly about this.
00:27:01.140 --> 00:27:07.500
U h, he was, u h, I was a great admirer of his and, u h, worked for him a little bit.
00:27:07.680 --> 00:27:14.819
And he said, professor, you forget when he said, professor, you k now, y ou w ere in trouble because you w ere completely ignorant.
00:27:15.539 --> 00:27:18.450
H e said, professor, you forget, they can act without me.
00:27:18.451 --> 00:27:19.559
I can't act without that.
00:27:21.809 --> 00:27:29.279
And so theoretically they can assert themselves, but as a practical matter i s i t's unlikely.
00:27:30.559 --> 00:27:37.700
But I mean, just to be clear, the battle over the powers between the legislature and the executive is not new.
00:27:37.880 --> 00:27:42.799
I mean, right now, certainly there's, it's one thing to chafe against the fact that you have.
00:27:42.859 --> 00:28:04.009
So, u h, such a powerful and, and, and some critics would say, or have said d ictatorial governor, who's making all these unilateral decisions in a time of COVID, u h, while also writing a book and, you know, doing whatever all else he's doing, but the legislature complains about it, but y et it's actually p rotecting for them because they can say, well, it's not my fault.
00:28:04.010 --> 00:28:07.670
If you don't like X or Y or Z, just l ook, it's the governor, o r he's just doing all this stuff.
00:28:07.671 --> 00:28:08.720
He's running r ampant.
00:28:08.750 --> 00:28:17.630
I mean, and I, and the average voter doesn't understand the intricacies of government and who gave what to whom o r the b lood p lates y ou're seated, i ts power, et cetera.
00:28:17.839 --> 00:28:26.660
And, you know, in the past, it has gone to the, to the third branch of government, which would be the executives and sorry, pardon me?
00:28:26.661 --> 00:28:33.829
The judicial branch and the judicial branch has really affirmed the budgeting power at the very least of the executive.
00:28:33.830 --> 00:28:41.059
So we, so we have a very strong executive here and there's been discord between the executive and legislative branches in the past.
00:28:41.060 --> 00:28:46.039
I mean, this is certainly nothing new, just like there's nothing new to see the mayor of New York city fight with the governor.
00:28:46.069 --> 00:28:49.880
It's just, these two personalities h ave just elevated it to a, y ou k now, astronomical.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:29:08.240
I mean, for me, it was, uh, when I worked for mayor Kotch, uh, his relationship with, uh, governor Cuomo, it was as it to me historically, it seems like this only magnified due to the pandemic, um, they didn't get along.
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:15.470
Um, and Jerry I'm sure you're well, you know, there's, there's something Liz said that triggered a point in my mind.
00:29:15.980 --> 00:29:19.400
One of the dangers of the current moment is the s eeding to the judiciary.
00:29:19.401 --> 00:29:25.759
The p olicy-making p ro u h, responsibility, v ery concerned about who gets o nto the Supreme court.
00:29:26.700 --> 00:29:41.150
I thought i s what w e t hink is well placed when t he, when the, u h, political branches don't work together well, or work effectively in accord with the design of the system, the judiciary becomes t he locus of decision a nd, and that's not a good thing.
00:29:41.680 --> 00:29:42.069
So a t least
00:29:42.069 --> 00:29:52.299
Democratic institution and state and national government, well, so there's a dimension that, uh, is less discussed
00:29:54.750 --> 00:29:58.200
Also, also similarly that has flown under the radar.
00:29:58.201 --> 00:30:02.730
But I think we're probably going to see more of it, particularly because there are a lot of, let's be clear.
00:30:02.759 --> 00:30:17.640
There's a lot of very difficult decisions that lie ahead at the federal level, the state level local level, because of the financial crisis that we're finding ourselves in, as a result of the pandemic, we're going to see a lot of pain and a lot of funding cuts, and we've already started to see it.
00:30:17.641 --> 00:30:22.349
I mean, we see the pain on the street and people are hungry and people are homeless and people are jobless.
00:30:22.380 --> 00:30:26.670
So we've seen that, but it's only the tip of the iceberg about what might be to come.
00:30:26.671 --> 00:30:45.900
And, you know, frequently we have seen, uh, difficult decisions in policy at the state level kicked to unelected commissions, including decisions about, say whether or not legislators should get a pay raise or legislators, pardon me, whether or not there should be how, what congestion pricing should look like, whether or not there should be a plastic bag tax.
00:30:46.980 --> 00:30:55.710
Uh, you know, and I think similarly, that's another way that you're seeing elected officials circumvent their responsibility to make hard choices, because they're afraid that voters are gonna toss them out.
00:30:55.711 --> 00:30:56.940
So they don't want to make hard choices.
00:30:56.941 --> 00:31:00.599
So they're like, Oh, we'll just give it to the judiciary, or we'll just give it to the, this commission.
00:31:00.601 --> 00:31:08.490
And they'll make a decision which really is, you know, antithetical to why you get elected to represent people in government.
00:31:08.609 --> 00:31:11.039
It's not supposed to be an easy job.
00:31:11.849 --> 00:31:13.049
No, not at all.
00:31:13.349 --> 00:31:15.779
So it's the day after election day.
00:31:16.140 --> 00:31:25.890
And I know I didn't want to do predictions, but are we heading to the Supreme court with this?
00:31:26.640 --> 00:31:35.069
Um, no matter what I mean is, has Trump laid the foundation for saying, I will not accept the outcome.
00:31:35.079 --> 00:32:02.819
So unless it is a Biden wave and there's just no doubt about it, are we heading to the court because the earlier decision this week by the courts with regard to when to count votes in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Wisconsin leads you to some pretty serious concerns over what may happen if it winds up in the Supreme court.
00:32:03.930 --> 00:32:05.700
So is that where we're going?
00:32:12.019 --> 00:32:25.140
I, and I think it really got, um, not lost in the shuffle, but it really didn't get the attention or spark the outrage that it should have the accelerated placement of Amy Coney Barrett on the, on the, uh, Supreme court.
00:32:25.170 --> 00:32:31.410
I mean, I don't think that people there's just so much and people are exhausted and tired and stressed out.
00:32:31.619 --> 00:32:38.730
There's only so much you can get about, but like that was something t o get really about actually, because she's there now, she's there.
00:32:39.109 --> 00:32:50.119
And so, u h, t hat really actually undercuts Ro berts, who you might say what you will about his ideology, but he was trying desperately to prevent the court from being the Trump court.
00:32:50.390 --> 00:32:53.089
But now he's tr umped e ffectively by the right.
00:32:53.359 --> 00:32:57.109
So he, you know, I hope not.
00:32:57.200 --> 00:32:58.819
I hope we don't end up there.
00:32:58.820 --> 00:33:02.329
And actually, u m, y ou know, I do some work for the state bar association.
00:33:02.329 --> 00:33:13.220
We have very interesting, uh, forum recently that, um, election attorney, Jerry Goldfeder was the hair, uh, head of a task force on this issue of what happens now in terms of how do we count the boats?
00:33:13.279 --> 00:33:14.000
Where does it go?
00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:15.890
And who's got the power and all this stuff.
00:33:16.279 --> 00:33:24.710
And a lot of it actually ha I mean, what happens if there's so many possibilities, one state could have a slate of faithless electors.
00:33:24.711 --> 00:33:29.390
A state could send two slates of electors, u m, w ho makes the decision?
00:33:29.480 --> 00:33:31.609
Actually, the st atute i s n ot entirely clear.
00:33:31.611 --> 00:33:36.799
It says it has verbiage about el ect, u m, e xecutives, but doesn't say who the executive is.
00:33:36.800 --> 00:33:57.079
So it could be, the secretary of state could be, the governor could be, I mean, there are so many areas and points where you could end up in court that you got to hope that just, we just don't get there be cause, you know, if we don't, by January 20th, have, u h, a decision about who the president is, it would be acting president Pe losi, I think, yes,
00:33:57.759 --> 00:34:09.670
That's right, because for the speaker I've truth be told, I, I didn't hate the electoral college for much of my career.
00:34:11.409 --> 00:34:19.929
I've come around on the question of the electric being, uh, undesirable, but wasn't sufficiently appreciated as if we had no electro college.
00:34:19.931 --> 00:34:33.099
We might still have the judiciary deciding the alleged dismiss of the, uh, vote in key States and, uh, the County rules and, uh, the potential challenges to ballots and, and so on.
00:34:33.730 --> 00:34:41.559
So, uh, whether or not we have the electoral college, we have the judiciary ultimately situated to choose the president.
00:34:41.561 --> 00:34:44.409
And I think that's a particularly bad thing.
00:34:44.980 --> 00:34:53.260
We also have a, an interesting situation where the change in the law has not caught up with the change in administration historically.
00:34:53.889 --> 00:34:56.769
Uh, the board forgive me.
00:34:58.269 --> 00:35:22.239
I don't want to be a fan to many people, but the board of elections has been in the system in New York has been an athema the last centers of patronage in New York politics, along with the theory and a competence, hasn't prevailed in every board of elections in New York, particularly recently, there's been a call by the mayor and the governor's endorses to undo the New York city board of elections.
00:35:23.170 --> 00:35:34.150
So we have a way of counting and a process that doesn't conform to the way people are voting, the voting early they're voting absentee, we've taken down the at least temporarily.
00:35:34.300 --> 00:35:35.139
They, no excuse.
00:35:36.039 --> 00:35:38.219
We've become to ran to kind of no excuse
00:35:38.219 --> 00:35:39.179
Absentee voting.
00:35:40.019 --> 00:35:47.820
If we changed the constitution to make that permanent, but the institutions aren't prepared to do the work timely.
00:35:49.670 --> 00:36:04.349
When we have these processes entrenched and long established, they get done pretty timely on the West coast, but where they just been taken up in other parts of the country, they're part of their big part of the problem is boring, but it's crucial.
00:36:05.579 --> 00:36:10.800
It absolutely is to the sense that people think there was a, uh, fairness.
00:36:11.039 --> 00:36:15.809
And if you want to encourage people to vote, then they have to believe their vote matters.
00:36:15.811 --> 00:36:23.849
And if some other institution then makes the decision for, I think that flies in the face of making people feel like, why should I vote?
00:36:24.900 --> 00:36:30.510
Um, you know, I was listening to the mayor of Atlanta last night and she made a point about that.
00:36:30.510 --> 00:36:40.739
This is the first time I think, in Georgia's history that they were voting for the president and both senators at the same time.
00:36:41.340 --> 00:36:46.860
And that there couldn't be a more important reason for you to go out and vote.
00:36:47.840 --> 00:36:49.829
This was so significant.
00:36:50.880 --> 00:37:22.380
Um, you know, aside from looking at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight and trying to understand polling, which I want to talk about a little bit, um, do we think the Senate is going to flip and the notion of the polls say acts, but what people always seem to forget is that they say it's a 75% chance that one p ersonal win a nd a 30% chance, but they're saying that a 30% chance that the other person will win.
00:37:23.010 --> 00:37:28.949
And I think we, we don't really understand what a poll means.
00:37:29.309 --> 00:37:31.110
So I'm kind of asking two questions.
00:37:31.110 --> 00:37:36.840
One, what do you think about polling and what does the real meaning of that?
00:37:37.260 --> 00:37:41.400
And then let's go to, does the Senate change?
00:37:41.610 --> 00:37:42.300
Yes or no,
00:37:44.059 --> 00:37:48.920
Polls are, you know, uh, uh, a helpful tool and a snapshot in time.
00:37:49.340 --> 00:38:02.719
It's kind of like when you buy a car, a brand new car and it's worth$20,000 and you drive it off the lot and all of a sudden it depreciates the moment you step out into traffic, right in your car, it's it goes down.
00:38:03.019 --> 00:38:06.769
So there's only one it's like taking a picture.
00:38:07.070 --> 00:38:11.960
Everything changes after that frozen moment, when the person has answered a call, right.
00:38:11.960 --> 00:38:13.400
And answered a bunch of questions.
00:38:13.610 --> 00:38:18.860
And t here's so many also different, u h, vagaries that I know that pollsters have been struggling with.
00:38:18.889 --> 00:38:29.179
What about, u h, are they under, u h, counting, u m, people in inner cities or b ecause they, you know, don't, aren't reachable, they don't have landlines.
00:38:29.239 --> 00:38:32.090
A re they u ndercounting young people who also don't use landlines?
00:38:32.119 --> 00:38:34.699
I don't happen to have one and I'm not young or living in an inner city.
00:38:34.699 --> 00:38:39.369
So, I mean, I actually got pull call on my cell the other day and I rejected it cause I don't do them.
00:38:39.579 --> 00:38:40.869
But so that's another thing.
00:38:40.871 --> 00:38:43.929
I mean, who's doing them, who's saying, yes, who's saying no, who's lying.
00:38:44.170 --> 00:38:46.210
Who's not because that's another problem.
00:38:46.210 --> 00:38:48.429
People sort of are not really low.
00:38:48.550 --> 00:38:50.469
They don't want to tell the bolster the truth.
00:38:50.471 --> 00:38:53.199
They think for whatever reason, it's inappropriate or what have you.
00:38:53.559 --> 00:39:01.989
So it's just, and then there's all sorts of algorithms and, um, various different math that you applied to weight it and all the rest of it.
00:39:01.990 --> 00:39:04.090
But there's a standard of deviation in every poll.
00:39:04.090 --> 00:39:05.500
So that's another thing to consider.
00:39:05.800 --> 00:39:06.820
I don't, I don't know.
00:39:06.820 --> 00:39:11.349
I don't put much stores by them and certainly like the current mayor of Rochester doesn't either.
00:39:11.800 --> 00:39:15.639
So, you know, if you know the history there, if not, you can just Google it.
00:39:15.641 --> 00:39:16.719
It's not that important.
00:39:16.721 --> 00:39:19.300
But the, the point of the matter is polls can be wrong.
00:39:21.030 --> 00:39:21.920
Well, that's true.
00:39:22.230 --> 00:39:22.980
Polls can be wrong.
00:39:23.760 --> 00:39:38.820
And yet, if you have a lot of poles and you're taking them overlapping periods, are you doing daily polling do augmented the database, taking the oldest ones off and putting the newest ones on and you get systematically the same outcomes.
00:39:38.820 --> 00:39:42.690
You can be more confident that they're telling you something useful.
00:39:43.409 --> 00:39:49.559
However, you have to understand when you have a close outcome, then you don't have any outcome because the close outcome is within the range of area.
00:39:49.561 --> 00:39:51.090
So it's really telling you what to toss up.
00:39:51.090 --> 00:39:51.900
Anybody can win.
00:39:52.380 --> 00:39:55.769
I've been getting a lot of stuff in the fundraising stuff in the mail.
00:39:55.771 --> 00:40:07.349
And, uh, uh, I see Kelly is up by one point, give us money to keep our, u h, K elly i s down by one point gi ven h i s m oney situation.
00:40:07.980 --> 00:40:13.679
And, u h, t he interesting thing is I'm getting far more about Senate races across the country than I ever did before.
00:40:14.610 --> 00:40:31.920
Uh, as this whole, uh, democratic capture of the executive of the entire government is fundamental to implementing the state level priorities of the democratic party when she's coming to rescue of the local governments and the States nationally that are in trouble, including New York, which is in substantial trouble financially.
00:40:32.519 --> 00:40:34.380
So I think Paul's too useful.
00:40:34.500 --> 00:40:44.760
And, and one other thing that I always used to teach when I taught was that there was a, a patina of science about the m ineral and it used to be l egitimising and science tell you what's going to happen.
00:40:45.480 --> 00:40:53.130
Now we have an anti-science party in this country, just as well as a lign t he view.
00:40:53.130 --> 00:40:56.369
I'm not going to believe science on this, a nd I'm not going to believe t hat on a lot of other things.
00:40:56.940 --> 00:41:08.429
So it gets to be an ideological position, whether t o believe p olls or not gets beyond the question of the methodology and limits and sampling and the kinds of issues that Liz talked a bout.
00:41:09.239 --> 00:41:14.460
Well, and so let's assume it's it, you know, we know it's going to be Wednesday when we're listening.
00:41:14.460 --> 00:41:17.519
So the Senate is close.
00:41:17.521 --> 00:41:27.690
And the reason I'm asking is because it seems as if we can't get through the next six months without a stimulus bill, there's just too many people that are hurting.
00:41:28.500 --> 00:41:35.750
And the it, as much as I have concern over the size of the debt, there are just too many people that are hurting.
00:41:35.900 --> 00:41:42.440
And as long as the virus is ramping up, we need to get money to people to survive.
00:41:43.250 --> 00:41:48.710
And I, you know, so will there be a stimulus bill?
00:41:49.099 --> 00:41:56.539
I mean, I don't know how New York gets by the, the MTA, you know, say what you will about it's management needs money.
00:41:57.650 --> 00:42:05.449
And it's a very important, um, uh, part of the infrastructure of the New York state economy.
00:42:06.170 --> 00:42:10.130
So do we, do we get to a stimulus bill regardless of who wins?
00:42:10.809 --> 00:42:12.880
Well, Nancy Pelosi says we will.
00:42:14.079 --> 00:42:18.010
I mean, you know, and then Steve Minutian says, Oh, I read about that in the newspaper.
00:42:18.010 --> 00:42:19.059
I don't know what she's talking about.
00:42:20.079 --> 00:42:36.670
It's hard to say, but I think at some point there will be a bi-partisan hue and cry because the reality is that you've got localities that are run by Republicans and run by Democrats and run by independence in the case of Syracuse, for example, that, uh, need money.
00:42:36.969 --> 00:42:41.829
And it just, it's not a, it's not a partisan issue that people are starving all over, right?
00:42:41.860 --> 00:42:59.110
So it's sort a relater, or you're going to have a re, although the Senate Republicans thus far have been very dug in on their, uh, reluctance to give out a lot of money, um, in terms of their conservative spending habits.
00:42:59.110 --> 00:42:59.409
Right.
00:42:59.411 --> 00:43:03.880
And they don't want to add to the already ridiculous insanity size debt that we have.
00:43:04.179 --> 00:43:12.550
So I don't, I don't think that, uh, we can get along without it certainly, but I don't know what it looks like after the election, something will happen after the election.
00:43:12.550 --> 00:43:13.690
I think that's fair to say.
00:43:13.719 --> 00:43:14.920
I just don't know what it looks like.
00:43:14.920 --> 00:43:20.500
And it'll certainly be smaller if the Republicans are mandatory, then it would be a fun, I think is in charge of it.
00:43:20.501 --> 00:43:29.199
Even if Biden is in charge, the calories, not coming to save New York, it's not going to be$60 billion that drops from the sky to solve a lot of problems.
00:43:29.380 --> 00:43:31.150
It's just, there's going to be, there's going to be cuts.
00:43:31.389 --> 00:43:35.320
There's gotta be revenue enhancement and it's going to be a difficult time.
00:43:36.530 --> 00:43:42.639
Well, in flip, I think there's a chance for historical election outcome.
00:43:44.920 --> 00:43:52.030
I'm not sure, but I think there's a chance regarding the stimulus bill.
00:43:52.389 --> 00:43:58.090
I think new Yorkers need to be aware that there are different degrees of, of a crisis in different parts of the country.
00:43:59.079 --> 00:44:02.980
Some state budgets are or are in reasonable shape.
00:44:03.610 --> 00:44:09.250
Last I looked so the universal expectation or expand is not going to be there.
00:44:09.251 --> 00:44:10.780
It's going to be substantial.
00:44:10.780 --> 00:44:14.559
And as Liz said, bi-partisan, but it's not universal.
00:44:15.250 --> 00:44:21.039
So not every Senator is going to feel the same pressures as every other Senator.
00:44:21.489 --> 00:44:31.980
I also think that people who have a pensions like I do, or, uh, investments and see the stock market drop seven points
00:44:32.699 --> 00:44:34.889
And then recover the next day 300 points.
00:44:34.949 --> 00:44:37.050
Say, thank God.
00:44:38.760 --> 00:44:42.929
If New York doesn't get the 60 billion only gets 40 billion, or we'll be happy state.
00:44:44.400 --> 00:44:50.489
Um, Jerry, you know, D do we go back and, you know, New York city seems to be in such bad shape.
00:44:50.490 --> 00:45:12.900
Fiscally, is this, did we go back to a, an emergency financial control board, the municipal assistance corporation, you know, Mac, and is there a third party entity that is going to have to, um, drive New York city out of the state that it's in?
00:45:14.880 --> 00:45:24.539
Well, I'm you pro you experienced this, but I I'm, uh, really shocked about the suggestions of borrowing for operating expenses.
00:45:25.139 --> 00:45:28.889
I, and I think that's everybody lived through the seventies, right?
00:45:30.119 --> 00:45:39.389
And, uh, I worked for Peter Goldmark, who is, who is principal in, uh, among the principals who, who, who, who helps solve the problem.
00:45:40.289 --> 00:45:54.750
So, uh, I know something informally about this, so yes, I think we're going to get to a control board or an institutional arrangement to bring the city along.
00:45:54.750 --> 00:46:09.389
Especially if we get stimulus money and some kind of external source, because, uh, the credibility of the city's response that it's not just going to distribute revenues and maintain the status quo city government has grown a lot under the current mayor.
00:46:10.110 --> 00:46:16.440
And, uh, and it's hard to argue that under the previous mayor, the city was not performing well.
00:46:16.590 --> 00:46:25.260
I mean, the streets were clean, uh, social services being delivered city with city residents felt relatively safe.
00:46:25.260 --> 00:46:30.630
I know there are a lot of issues of race and police accountability and so on.
00:46:30.630 --> 00:46:31.829
I'm not denying those issues.
00:46:31.920 --> 00:46:32.280
Sure.
00:46:32.739 --> 00:46:44.400
We, we ha we ran New York with less well, and to assure that happens, there's going to have to be, if money comes into Elvis city, as I think it should be the mass transit is the lifeblood of the city.
00:46:44.400 --> 00:46:46.469
You can't have in New York city with the ministry.
00:46:47.969 --> 00:46:51.570
So you have to have accountability and you're going to have to have the oversight.
00:46:51.880 --> 00:46:52.110
And it's not,
00:46:52.250 --> 00:46:54.289
You can say that about so many things dead.
00:46:54.349 --> 00:46:56.599
Like the schools are the lifeblood of the city.
00:46:56.601 --> 00:46:58.489
You can't have the city, unless you have schools.
00:46:58.519 --> 00:47:01.489
The, the offices are the lifeblood of the city.
00:47:01.490 --> 00:47:05.239
You can't have the city, unless you have jobs like the parks are the lifeblood of the city.
00:47:05.329 --> 00:47:06.530
You canvas city, unless you parks.
00:47:06.530 --> 00:47:09.349
I mean, like all the restaurants and the, the theater.
00:47:09.351 --> 00:47:10.849
I mean, there are so many things I do.
00:47:10.969 --> 00:47:20.329
I agree, of course, mass transit is probably higher up on the food chain than some of those other things, but there are so many problems right now in the city.
00:47:20.570 --> 00:47:27.380
I mean, the homelessness issue alone is just, and what's significant prior to the pandemic, just, just to be clear.
00:47:27.380 --> 00:47:39.070
I mean, some of these issues predated the pandemic and then subsequently let us remember in the middle of the pandemic, when the, when the subways were just a huge problem and nobody was writing the governor, shut them down at night to clean them.
00:47:39.099 --> 00:47:39.940
And they've been doing that.
00:47:39.940 --> 00:47:41.380
They're still doing that actually.
00:47:41.380 --> 00:47:43.329
And they're cleaner than they've ever been.
00:47:43.331 --> 00:47:59.860
People tell me, I mean, I haven't been to the city in months, but people are telling me that the subway system, you know, it looks, it looks great in terms of the, of the cars, although there's, there's also an uptake in graffiti and there's an uptick in crime and there's, uh, there's a lot of, there's just a lot of problems that, uh, that have to be solved.
00:48:00.670 --> 00:48:07.030
Um, and you know, there's a mayor's race next year, since we're talking about elections and, uh, it's going to be a difficult one,
00:48:08.579 --> 00:48:16.019
How that might, how about my university, my heart and soul being decimated financially, potentially.
00:48:16.170 --> 00:48:17.849
And actually, yeah, I bet.
00:48:18.090 --> 00:48:21.119
How about the city university and how about the community colleges?
00:48:22.260 --> 00:48:22.980
I have a great friend.
00:48:22.981 --> 00:48:44.309
Who's been working at LaGuardia community college for four decades and the social mobility that arose in that place where immigrant populations and let's listen, fluent people going to school and going to work at the same time, the, the whole of new York's commitment to, to, to, uh, people challenged and rising.
00:48:45.090 --> 00:48:48.900
And it's been centuries long is at stake.
00:48:50.070 --> 00:48:54.960
And, uh, it's emotionally powerful.
00:48:56.130 --> 00:48:59.849
Anybody who's worked in their life and creating opportunity.
00:49:00.269 --> 00:49:06.119
I used to say that working for the university was one of the greatest jobs in the world because you weren't fixing a problem.
00:49:06.809 --> 00:49:14.400
U m, however important that is you weren't helping people with special needs to get through the day, which of course was important.
00:49:14.400 --> 00:49:21.659
B ut w hat y ou're doing was taking the opportunity to give people t he chance to have a better life f orever.
00:49:23.159 --> 00:49:40.019
A nd, and, and we're g onna, and w e're, we're on, o n the brink, on the verge of giving that a ll up an idea of what g overnment's for giving that up, and that's shocking and emotionally difficult.
00:49:40.980 --> 00:49:47.280
So, but Liz, let me ask you, is this a general, is this a generational thing also?
00:49:47.280 --> 00:49:57.420
So like back in the day when New York city went through its fiscal crisis, there was a sense of, um, we've got to fix its finances yet.
00:49:57.989 --> 00:50:11.670
You know, there was a whole generation of people now due to social justice issues due to environmental issues, climate change, that wouldn't ness that say those issues need to rise also to the top of the pile.
00:50:11.969 --> 00:50:14.849
So how does this all get sorted out?
00:50:14.969 --> 00:50:22.110
You know, either historically, Jerry, as you said earlier in the conversation that there have been tough parts, but the country.
00:50:22.119 --> 00:50:32.000
So any sense on that, because we're still going to be polarized no matter what happens, no matter whether Biden wins, Trump wins, the country is still going to be polarized.
00:50:32.150 --> 00:50:40.699
There still will be a virus won the election that, you know, you know, the, the day this airs, it'll still be a prominent concern.
00:50:40.701 --> 00:50:48.829
But, um, I'm trying to think of how do we want to end this discussion and try to give people something positive to think about?
00:50:49.480 --> 00:50:52.960
Well, I don't think that these things don't have to all be mutually exclusive.
00:50:53.199 --> 00:51:06.489
And so, you know, I think, uh, when you talk about policy, you talk about baking into policy concerns about social justice and how the climate will be impacted.
00:51:06.519 --> 00:51:22.300
And so, for example, when you are looking to incentivize development, you only agree to provide taxpayer funded initiatives to buildings that are net neutral in terms of their carbon imprint on the environment.
00:51:22.300 --> 00:51:32.050
For example, you only agree government has the ability to incentivize businesses and to give them various different perks and tax breaks.
00:51:32.050 --> 00:51:34.059
And I'm certain that that's all going to be on the table too.
00:51:34.061 --> 00:51:55.420
When we come back to Albany and have this discussion, because that discussion's already been going on for awhile, but you only agree to incentivize businesses that have an equity pledge, uh, in their built into their foundation of being that their board has a certain equity makeup that they agree to hire a certain percentage of new Yorkers.
00:51:55.539 --> 00:52:01.239
And some of those new Yorkers are going to be people of color or people of a certain income bracket, et cetera.
00:52:01.269 --> 00:52:07.360
I mean, government can use its considerable clout to make decisions.
00:52:07.360 --> 00:52:13.599
That's what budgets are blueprints of, of decisions of moral investment.
00:52:13.659 --> 00:52:14.349
Effectively.
00:52:14.351 --> 00:52:28.780
You make a decision based on your dollars and your expenditures about what you think is important, and that's how you demonstrate and you move the consciousness of people, um, and you listened to the electorate and, and you act accordingly.
00:52:28.840 --> 00:52:33.159
I, it doesn't all have to be so strided and siloed.
00:52:33.940 --> 00:52:34.239
Okay.
00:52:34.989 --> 00:52:36.760
Jerry, I'll give you the last word
00:52:38.500 --> 00:52:38.500
Me.
00:52:38.989 --> 00:52:39.369
Yes.
00:52:40.840 --> 00:52:44.230
I'm going to tell you a little parable and you, you raised the Vietnam war.
00:52:44.260 --> 00:52:53.800
When I was a graduate student at Columbia in the sixties, I was going to school during the Vietnam war and the American flag got to be a symbol of one side.
00:52:55.780 --> 00:53:05.079
He saw police officers and firemen word, w ord flags on their, on their, on their shirts, d emonstrate labor activists w ere flags.
00:53:05.081 --> 00:53:11.980
They were conservative Democrats, and then confronted the students who were regarded as more r adical during nine 11.
00:53:13.869 --> 00:53:19.449
I walked down the street i n, u h, on the West side and there was a flag i n every window.
00:53:21.820 --> 00:53:29.039
The crisis had created flag and every liberal Democrat on the West side of Manhattan.
00:53:32.760 --> 00:53:56.579
So we can hope and expect will still be polarized, but we can hope and expect if you, if the crisis persists, it's the cost keeping imposed on us and social injustice and, uh, uh, health failure to address core and murder his health circumstances.
00:53:57.360 --> 00:54:03.000
We have a chance to respond collectively and we've demonstrated, and we have the capacity to do that.
00:54:03.239 --> 00:54:13.199
So that's the hope, hope is planning to confront the crisis because it challenges all of us and creates a certain unity, at least in the moment.
00:54:14.969 --> 00:54:16.170
Um, dr.
00:54:16.170 --> 00:54:18.539
Gal Benjamin, Liz, Benjamin.
00:54:18.840 --> 00:54:19.860
Thank you so much for you.
00:54:21.260 --> 00:54:30.710
Uh, I'm sure this is a conversation that would go on for hours, but thank you for your time this morning, you should come to our house sometime and see how that goes.
00:54:33.079 --> 00:54:40.400
One c an s tand in supportable to hang out with us long diatribe, various different political or stories.
00:54:41.900 --> 00:54:42.530
Great pleasure.
00:54:42.530 --> 00:54:43.519
Thank you for the opportunity.
00:54:43.880 --> 00:54:45.530
Well, thank you both very much.
00:54:47.030 --> 00:54:50.960
Thank you for tuning in to patterns and paradigms the pattern podcast.
00:54:51.440 --> 00:54:59.179
For more information about this episode, visit our website pattern for progress.org forward slash podcast.