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Hi, I'm Mandy Peeley Swain, and this is another episode of Origination Boost Podcast.
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Before I introduce our guests for today, which I'm super stoked about, I want to say that I'm super humbled and honored to say that my new book, Origination Boost, just became a bestseller on Amazon.
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So today is a big day for me personally.
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And I'm just grateful for all the support and love I've had from those around me to uh get to the finish line on this goal that I didn't know was a goal on my life bingo card.
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So sometimes it's just a matter of saying yes.
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And I just said yes to writing a book and sharing my heart and soul in the 30 years of in the mortgage space and the blessings that have come my way.
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And so I just want to say thank you again.
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And the ebook is on sale for 99 cents on Amazon.
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So if you're still if you're still interested in the book, that promo is still running.
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So, anyways, let's get to my guest today, which I'm super stoked about, somebody I've followed in the business since I was a kid.
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So I know he was a kid too.
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Um Mr.
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Barry Habib, um, he's well known in the mortgage industry, well respected for his forecasting and uh knowledge of the business.
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But the part I the part that for me, as still a frontline leader who does homeowns, his beginnings were in the mortgage space.
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I have all these great questions to ask you, but I just want to go to like the beginning.
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Like, did you trip into the mortgage business, or was it like family was already in, or how did that happen for you?
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So, first, thank you for having me on.
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And yes, I have a copy of your book, and I think it is terrific.
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So I would highly recommend it for anyone, and ridiculous, it's not a cost obstacle, obviously, but I think it would be of of a lot of help for individuals, and it's really well done, very easy to read.
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I just I like the fact that um just the page layout, it's it's just beautifully done, Mandy.
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So, first, thank you, congratulations on that.
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Thank you so much.
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It's a big, it's a big accomplishment, it's a big undertaking.
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Anybody who's done it knows that it is an enormous undertaking.
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So I just wanted to take a minute and congratulate you for not only doing it, but doing a great job on it too and creating value.
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Well, your support means a lot to me, so thank you.
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So, yeah, I did.
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Like so many people get into the mortgage business by accident.
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You know, it's uh uh it was a backdoor.
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Um, I uh as a young person, kind of entrepreneurial, I was buying real estate properties, um, and I was asking questions of the mortgage professional.
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You know, I went to school, had some financial background.
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I was like, you know, tell me about the mortgage business.
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I'm curious, you know.
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And they were telling me uh about it.
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I said, boy, that sounds like it could be interesting, it could be fun.
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And and yeah, that's kind of how I got in.
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I inquired about it and then uh took on a job.
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And, you know, when I did, I was the new kid on the block.
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So believe it or not, the way I started doing transactions, you know, I made this decision.
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I I was a new father of twins, and uh um this is going all the way back to 1986, and I had to put food on the table.
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And realtors, you know, they were a little hesitant.
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I'm the new kid on the block.
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So believe it or not, what I did was I knocked on people's doors and asked them if they wanted to refinance.
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And uh, and my third week in the business, third week in the business, wrote 16 loans.
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So uh people said, you know, how are you doing?
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I said, Well, I'm just I talk to everybody I can talk to about mortgages.
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Yeah.
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Well, that that uh were you were you fearful to go door to door?
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I mean, or were you like, I have to, because my why is pretty huge.
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I've got now twins on the way or in my life, and and I I don't have a choice at this point.
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I have to succeed.
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Yeah, you know, I think many of us get in our own head and we create obstacles where there are none.
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You know, one of the best decisions that one of the best lessons I learned is like, don't make the decision for the cop client.
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You know, I might say, well, I don't know if I do that, but the client may want to do that.
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So don't make the decision for them.
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Don't talk them out of it.
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Yeah, don't talk them out of it.
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Yeah.
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And and the other thing is is that going door to door, I will tell you that some people slam the door in my face.
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Uh, I think one actually called the police saying there's somebody coming around.
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But more often than not, people were like, Well, well, well, yeah, if I could save money, yeah, I would like to talk to you.
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I'd like to learn more.
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Uh, talk to me by now.
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Um, most of the time was leave me a card and then they call me later.
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Look, I I had that philosophy of talking to everyone.
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You know, I'll give you another example is that um this was I I'm mostly in Florida.
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I happen to be in New Jersey at the moment because I go back and forth, but mostly in Florida.
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Uh, this was in New Jersey, and um, when I first started in the mortgage business, again, having the need to, you know, try and be successful right away and talking to everyone I could, there's a lot of tolls in New Jersey.
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And, you know, I'm dating myself.
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So before the widespread use of the automated toll system where you put a device in your car, uh you could go through an exact change or where there was a toll collector if you didn't have exact change.
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Well, I have the exact change, but I went to where there was a toll collector and always did that and says, Hey, you know, if you can, if you are looking to buy a home and would need financing, or if I could save you some money on your current mortgage, please just give me a call.
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And I gave them the 25 cents and my business card.
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Now, all my buddies would give me so much crap about this because a lot of times I would be doing this when we were going up to a game or doing Barry, again, why don't you just go through the fast lane?
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I said, No, this is what I do, and they gave me so much crap on it until a guy by the name of Steve Horton from the Triborough Bridge Internal Authority called me.
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And not only did I do his loan, but I did 16 of his coworkers' loans.
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So it was just that always thinking out of the box, always finding ways to, even in slower times, to generate revenue.
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Yeah, I love it.
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And I I love that you just didn't end up right.
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And and so if you're listening to this and you're a loan officer, the thing, the key takeaway there is very gotten and said hello to people, humans, you are not gonna do it behind your computer.
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You're you're gonna have to get out and see people.
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And I and that there's like always for me in my 30 years, I think there's always a tipping point in loan officers' careers where, like you said, that's 16 loans, one one time with consistency doing that every time, going to the toll, giving your business card, consistently doing it, presented this opportunity.
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And it was like the tipping point of having 16 more loans in your in your pipeline, which is I'm not that's nobody's gonna be crying about that, right?
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They're all gonna be cheering for you.
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So what else in your I know we're gonna get to the meat and potatoes of what you do today, and so critical for loan officers to know what's going on in this crazy market we've been in since the taper tantrum of 22.
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But I love that you were in the business.
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I met uh the first in yeah interaction I had, and you didn't know it, was at a mastermind in 2006, where that was when Tim Raheem and you were there and and Chris Gardner was there.
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And I think Tony Robbins opened it that day.
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And and that's when right before Tim was gonna go to Italy for to live there.
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He made this goal to live there for a year.
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And so to me, you guys were the big shining stars of this mortgage business, and you brought such value to loan officers that really needed it, and and you gave I simple ideas like handing out business cards at the toll station to help loan officers build their business.
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It wasn't sexy, it was just work and it was real.
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And I related to that to the point that I remember uh Tim mentioning, you know, make your newsletters personal, put pictures of your family on it, you know.
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And to this day, that's part of my business.
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So I'm always a learner of the, you know, I always want to learn in this business.
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And you um at that event were such a critical influence in my initial years in the business.
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And and so I you may not have ever known that, but I think that it's important to know that you've been making a difference in loan originators' lives for a very, very long time.
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So Andy, I I love that it's you know, just you want to be on God's path.
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And when you know you're helping people and doing the right thing and making a positive influence, then you know you're on you're on the right path, right?
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So that's very, very important to me.
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And what's always been important as far as what I attributed some of the modest success that I had as an originator, and you know, back in the day, um, you know, people do much greater numbers now.
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But I I did 2 billion in originations when I was originating back in, I know it's a long time ago, but in 1993, um, Mortgage Originator magazine and broker magazine had me as the number one originator in the US.
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But I attribute a lot of that to the decision I made very early on to have a financial take on it.
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Where my consultations with the clients were really geared not just on providing a loan, but creating wealth, understanding the markets, understanding the timing of when they should lock in, understanding what the real estate market was doing, and showing them the opportunity in buying a home, or working with their other financial professionals and explaining to them the benefits of how they can use some of that capital to generate even more income for the long run.
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And you know, you look back on that, a lot of those clients that I talked to years ago, later on, they were like, oh my gosh, I wouldn't be able to put my kids through college if it wasn't for you.
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And it's very rewarding, or things like you know, my financial future, because what we did was we helped them and set them up where they pulled cash out or put less money down, put money in for retirement.
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It's not sexy at the moment, but 20 years later, it's really sexy.
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It's really amazing.
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You know, it's life-changing, literally.
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So the decisions that we make, and make it the first decision is understanding that as an originator, your job is not to provide a loan, it's to create wealth.
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Uh and that's really what it's about.
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Yeah, I love that.
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I think that I I I I was kind of reflecting on my career, you know, the book and and everything's out, and and I'm sure you've done this, but and obviously you have, because it the generational wealth that was provided to the families that I was able to help with their home loans has been um I I thought about that and I thought, well, if I've in the say in the last five years, if I've loaned a billion dollars in in loans, how much wealth has that brought to those families?
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And so I I think that we're in the greatest country in the U in the in the world to lend in the mortgage space.
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We have such an opportunity, the 30-year fix, thank God for it.
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And I mean, we live in an amazing country that somebody with mild education can go very far in this business if they're willing to card, if they have a heart of service and gratitude.
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And and you've proven that in your career.
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You pivot from being this billion-dollar producer, being on the front page, you know, front of article magazines and things like that as the biggest producer in the US.
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And then you you that transitioned you into the space of being the go-to for more all things market related.
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How did how did that transition?
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You got out, you know, what was that transition like for you?
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And by the way, that's something that you mentioned earlier that you shouldn't take for granted, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, because the United States is pretty much about the only place where you could do that because we have a mortgage-backed security market, right?
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So that's a very important um blessing that we enjoy.
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Uh my mortgage career, you know, it had a lot of parallels.
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You know, CNBC had me do uh a show for them, which which I did for 13 years, which was great, and then other networks.
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So I had a prominent position there, and then uh kind of springed that into becoming a professional speaker in the industry, which I still do quite a bit of.
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And uh, that was uh just something that was parallel.
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So these things really helped my career in general.
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But what I noticed is that a lot of people were counting on me for that market advice and expertise.
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And everybody was asking me, well, Barry, what's what's it look like things are gonna happen?
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And so I created Mortgage Market Guide, and and that became almost ubiquitous within many of the top producers within the industry and grew that into a significant business.
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And then I didn't like the way things were heading in 2007, so I sold that, uh, created CMPS and sold that as well.
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Uh, and then what that did is it gave me some time under a non-compete to do some other interesting things.
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So I started a medical imaging business and got into some entertainment uh where um I took Rock of Ages around the world and some other things, and Chris Angel in Vegas, and you know, believe it or not, did some movies uh where I had some roles as an actor.
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Uh, and and that that was a lot of fun.
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Um, but then people said, hey, look, you know, we kind of need you back, and started MBS Highway.
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And and that has has uh that has been just a blessing for me and growing into a uh a very large company where we acquired list reports, we created a certified mortgage advisor, uh, we have a whole home reports division, which is an amazing tool.
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So yeah, you know, it's just it's just gone into different areas now.
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One of the fun things I'm doing also, it's kind of like a hobby, but helping people get into aircraft space, um, which is really amazing.
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I love that whole whole thing.
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So that's kind of a sideline hobby that I'm doing, which has been just a joy and a lot of fun.
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Yeah, my husband's a pilot.
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He I'm gonna have to tell him that he'll get a kick out of that.
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Yeah, he uh he's he's uh loves uh his plane and loves flying.
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And so, but the other thing that I love about MBS Highway is you've gotten your kids involved, right?
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I mean, this is not that you have you've kind of passed on your knowledge to the your older kids and they're part of it, right?
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They are.
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I have four amazing children.
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So my older ones, Dan, which many people know because he's created his own uh personality in the mortgage industry, and he's someone that people rely upon.
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He does an amazing job.
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And his twin sister, Nicole.
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So both of them uh kind of grew up in the mortgage business, and then he originated with kids.
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Know that, you know, your kids are in the backseat, they kind of learned they could probably qualify people by now, right?
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Because they've listened to all our conversations.
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Um, so uh at a young age, you know, and they used to work with me at the mortgage company during the summers, but then when I started MBS Highway, uh Dan and Nicole were still a little bit young, but as they were kind of got a working age, they started really working with me there.
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Uh, and then after I sold, uh I meant to say mortgage market guide, excuse me.
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As I sold too many successful companies, that's all.
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That's all.
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As I sold mortgage market guide, my daughter, I had that non-compete period.
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My son Dan went to be a financial advisor, and my daughter Nicole became an originator, and she still is a successful originator today.
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And uh when I started to be a s highway, Dan says, Okay, I'm going to uh I'm gonna leave what I'm doing and come do that with you, Dad.
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Yes, Nicole uh stayed as an originator because she had a baby, and being an originator, while it's tough, it's very conducive to bringing up young children and being able to have your own hours and work from home.
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And so she did that.
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And now Jake and Jared, two younger boys who aren't so young anymore.
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Jake's 28, Jared's 25.
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Um, they from a young age started working with me at MBS Highway.
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And uh Jake's on camera all the time.
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Jared does a lot behind the scenes, so they play a very important role.
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So yeah, I love that.
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Um, I've been able to uh work with them, and we have a lot to talk about all the time because we could talk about the markets, we could talk about business, and you know it just keeps us very close.
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Strategies, too, you know, of and and because this is an ever-evolving.
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I think that you're gonna have to be flexible if you're in the market space.
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Whatever, whatever your seat is on the bus, I think flexibility is critical because the factors you talk about to originators, and the part I love about you know, come come and speak to our company here at Premiere and talk to our originators is you break it down so beautifully to make it simple.
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I think we can get stuck in the minutiae of the all of the things going on.
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My husband said, you know, you usually can follow the 10-year, you know, gas prices go up, so do rates, gas prices come down, so do rates.
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That lately that's all off the board.
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Kind of, I mean, it's just it's been kind of messy lately.
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Why don't you weigh in on the the the most recent kind of crazy because what us are old dogs and new, we is kind of not playing right now.
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I will, and you're right.
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Um, but but before that, um, you know, one other benefit of working with my kids is that I used to teach them stuff.
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They teach me a lot of stuff now, too, which is really important and really great.
00:17:31.519 --> 00:17:37.359
Um, but you also mentioned something else about breaking things down so they're easier to understand.
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I have to tell you that as a salesperson, and all of us really are, the most important thing you can have is presentation skills.
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That is much more important than having a better rate.
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That's much more important than having a product that's really good.
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You could have great rates and great product if you're a lousy presenter, the message is going to get across.
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Yeah.
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So so what we have to really work on more than anything are our presentation skills.
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So I want to ask you, are you recording your phone conversations and listening to them?
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Are you seeing where you lost customers, where you lit them up and they really caught on?
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Are you getting in your presentation from point A to point B?
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Do you have this mapped out so it follows a chronological order?
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Your discussion shouldn't be like a murder mystery where the client's trying to figure this out and you're skipping chronological events where you're going from here to here to here and losing them because they'll just nod their head and say yes, but they aren't following you.
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Are you metaphorically holding them by the hand and taking them through the process?
00:18:39.680 --> 00:18:42.559
Are you asking in every transaction two critical questions?
00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:46.079
One, what are your thoughts and then listening to them?
00:18:46.079 --> 00:18:49.279
And then, what are your concerns and listening to them?
00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:51.519
Are you doing that every single time?
00:18:51.519 --> 00:18:53.359
Because you need to do that.
00:18:53.359 --> 00:19:01.759
And as we talk about what's the current events and what's going on, yes, the situation in the Middle East is a very big driving factor.
00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:02.400
Why?
00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:04.960
Well, let's take this chronologically.
00:19:04.960 --> 00:19:11.839
Interest rates, if you are loaning money long term like a mortgage, so think about that.
00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:19.839
Inflation plays a big role because if I've loaned more money on a mortgage, I'm getting, for the most part, a fixed return.
00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:24.640
So if my mortgage payment back to me is, I'm just gonna pick a number, $2,000 a month.
00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:28.720
So I'm getting $2,000 a month this year, next year, the year after, the year after.
00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:43.279
But if I took that $2,000 a month that I got and went shopping with it, well, what I buy this year is not going to buy the same stuff that I am able to buy next year if there's inflation and less the year after and yes than the year after.
00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:52.559
So the amount of inflation has an erosive effect on that fixed payment because the payment's fixed, but inflation keeps going.
00:19:52.559 --> 00:19:55.599
So my buying power is getting softer and weaker.
00:19:55.599 --> 00:20:08.799
Now, if I know where the rate of inflation is, I can contemplate that and I can say, okay, if you give me this rate of return, I can account for inflation and I could still make some money on the deal.
00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:09.440
Okay.
00:20:09.440 --> 00:20:12.559
But now what if inflation starts to go up?
00:20:12.559 --> 00:20:19.119
Well, that rate of evaporation or erosion or removal of buying power starts to happen more rapidly.
00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:20.960
So what I'm left with is less.
00:20:20.960 --> 00:20:24.400
Now, I can't, as a lender, control inflation.
00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:25.839
But what can I control?
00:20:25.839 --> 00:20:34.400
I can control the rate of interest I charge you to make sure the rate of interest I receive is contemplating that now higher rate of inflation.
00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:37.839
So if inflation goes up, I have to charge a higher interest rate.
00:20:37.839 --> 00:20:42.640
And if you just understand that simple concept, you'll know more than 99% of mortgage originators.
00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:51.279
But what it also gives you is an understanding of why things that impact inflation impact mortgage rates.
00:20:51.279 --> 00:21:01.119
So if you see the job market gets super hot, well, that means people are going to demand more wages as you compete over the workers that are available.
00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:05.279
So if wages start going up, well, people will make more, they'll spend more.
00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:06.480
It's our human nature.
00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:12.319
If you're spending more and you get more money, the definition of inflation is too many dollars chasing too few products.
00:21:12.319 --> 00:21:14.960
So that causes inflation, which causes rates to go up.
00:21:14.960 --> 00:21:20.480
If the job market gets slower, if the economy gets slower, if there's a recession, interest rates come down.
00:21:20.480 --> 00:21:23.759
Another factor is oil prices.
00:21:23.759 --> 00:21:25.839
And that's one that's really important right now.
00:21:25.839 --> 00:21:30.559
Now you started out with this, and it's a little bit of a long explanation, but this goes to the presentation, right?
00:21:30.559 --> 00:21:32.799
We want to break this down so we can understand.
00:21:32.799 --> 00:21:39.359
If I just told you why oil prices affect it, well, it's a disjointed picture, but I want to explain why oil prices are important.
00:21:39.759 --> 00:21:40.079
Absolutely.
00:21:40.319 --> 00:21:47.359
So oil prices are a huge percentage of economic activity and inflation.
00:21:47.359 --> 00:21:59.039
It makes up about 12 to 13 percent of the CPI consumer price index or PCE personal consumption expenditures gauges that tell us where inflation is.
00:21:59.039 --> 00:22:01.519
So that's A very big number.
00:22:01.519 --> 00:22:09.839
And given that it's so important, if oil prices rise dramatically, well, then that's going to result in people paying more for gasoline.
00:22:09.839 --> 00:22:17.759
And it's going to mean that there is inflationary pressures that are going to result, that's going to be showing up in the numbers, and interest rates are going to go up.
00:22:17.759 --> 00:22:24.400
If oil prices come down, that can really help subside inflation and bring interest rates lower.
00:22:24.400 --> 00:22:28.960
But the situation in the Middle East is one that can have a dramatic effect.
00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:32.079
This is not your normal fluctuations in oil prices.
00:22:32.079 --> 00:22:36.240
So a barrel of oil, it's two typical ways to measure it.
00:22:36.240 --> 00:22:38.079
In Europe, they use something called Brent.
00:22:38.079 --> 00:22:43.440
In the United States, we use West Texas Intermediate or WTI.
00:22:43.440 --> 00:22:50.079
So that price of WTI for barrel, a barrel of oil makes about 42 gallons of gasoline.
00:22:50.079 --> 00:22:55.839
So a barrel of oil, it was before this latest situation in the Middle East.
00:22:55.839 --> 00:23:03.200
If you go back to February this year, so you just turn the clock back five or six months, and we were at about $67 a barrel.
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:11.279
Now that went all the way up to $117 a barrel, which coincided with the huge rise you'd seen in mortgage rates.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:17.119
Now oil has come down to more reasonable levels, but it's still elevated to where we were.
00:23:17.119 --> 00:23:23.680
But there are underlying concerns because 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Ormuz.
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:31.519
If we have that closed, it creates a big shortage because people depend on oil.
00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:35.599
And now there are other ways to get it, but oil's a global commodity.
00:23:35.599 --> 00:23:38.960
So it's being bid for in India, Europe, and in the US.
00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:41.200
So you might say, okay, we can get it from Venezuela.
00:23:41.200 --> 00:23:45.279
Well, that's great, but that's also being bid for from India.
00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:48.079
It's being bid for in Europe, and it's being bid for here.
00:23:48.079 --> 00:23:50.000
So we're going to pay a higher price for it.
00:23:50.000 --> 00:23:55.440
So until that kind of subsides, we might have an inflationary impulse from that.
00:23:55.440 --> 00:24:00.640
And you know, we might say, well, isn't the US a large provider of oil?
00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:07.119
We are 14 million barrels a day, head and shoulders above even Saudi Arabia of Russia, near to 10 million barrels a day.
00:24:07.119 --> 00:24:07.920
So why?
00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:14.240
Well, we produce light, sweet crude, which is great, but our refineries are set up for heavy sour.
00:24:14.559 --> 00:24:14.799
Yeah.
00:24:15.039 --> 00:24:17.680
And that means we do have to import a lot of that.
00:24:17.680 --> 00:24:21.359
So we'll export a lot, and that's good, but we have to still import.
00:24:21.359 --> 00:24:25.519
So these are things that people say, why am I paying so much at the pump?
00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:27.200
If indeed we produce so much.
00:24:27.200 --> 00:24:29.200
Well, what we produce, we don't refine here.
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:30.720
So it makes for a difficult time.
00:24:30.960 --> 00:24:36.160
The refineries aren't set up basically to produce the kind of oil that we have here.
00:24:36.160 --> 00:24:39.039
And so that's what that's the gap, right?
00:24:39.039 --> 00:24:42.400
And the cost to change those is significant.
00:24:42.400 --> 00:24:46.240
And who wants to have in their and and time-wise, so long.
00:24:46.559 --> 00:24:50.799
Years and years to create a refinery, who wants it in their backyard, the whole nine yards, right?
00:24:50.799 --> 00:24:53.519
So uh there are challenges to switch over.
00:24:53.519 --> 00:24:56.559
It's easier to just import it, especially when all is cheap.
00:24:56.559 --> 00:25:04.720
But um, but but we are in a situation where um the shortages, even if you open up the straight of war moves, would probably take about 18 months.
00:25:04.720 --> 00:25:07.359
Now the oil markets will respond sooner than that.
00:25:07.359 --> 00:25:14.240
Um, but I do believe that eventually we will have some sort of a resolution to that, and that will result in some lower rates.
00:25:14.240 --> 00:25:16.000
But then we have the Fed.
00:25:16.000 --> 00:25:24.720
And the Fed has been has been a thorn in our side for so long because under under Janet Yellen, we had some issues with the Fed.
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:31.200
Under Jerome Powell, you go back to 2021 and 2022, kept interest rates and quantitative easing going too long.
00:25:31.200 --> 00:25:46.720
He completely ignored the fact that rents were going up so much and it carries so much weight in the inflation numbers, but there is a lag between rents actually going up and between the time that they show up in the inflation numbers, that he allowed for inflation to get out of control.
00:25:46.720 --> 00:25:49.039
And he was not a good Fed chair.
00:25:49.039 --> 00:25:53.839
We have a great Fed chair now, but you have members of the Fed that don't really understand it.
00:25:53.839 --> 00:26:05.759
People like Beth Hammock and Laurie Logan and Neil Kashikari were voting members that just prove over and over that they just read headlines and don't go deep on this stuff and they don't have the understanding of how this stuff works.
00:26:05.759 --> 00:26:12.640
Uh, we are currently in a situation where if they were to raise rates, that's not do anything for oil prices.
00:26:12.640 --> 00:26:22.799
All it will do is create disruption in the economy and hurt the economy, which will bring down inflation, but it will hurt economic activity and hurt the very people you're trying to protect.
00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:23.599
Trying to help.
00:26:23.680 --> 00:26:23.759
Yeah.
00:26:24.000 --> 00:26:24.240
Yeah.
00:26:24.240 --> 00:26:27.279
So we are in a difficult situation.
00:26:27.279 --> 00:26:38.400
What the Fed also did under Jerome Powell is in December, thought they could be useful in creating more liquidity by purchasing $40 billion a month in short-term treasuries.
00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:41.920
All that did was create an influx of money supply.
00:26:41.920 --> 00:26:48.160
And when you have more money supply, then you have gross output, it creates inflation.
00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:52.640
And so the Fed created some of the inflationary impulse we have now, along with oil.
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:55.839
Uh, thank goodness under Jerome Powell, that's over.
00:26:55.839 --> 00:27:04.000
But now under Kevin Warsh, uh I think Kevin Warsh is a very good Fed share and you'll see less quantitative easing.
00:27:04.000 --> 00:27:13.039
And I think that we will have a Fed that now has these task forces to look at this in a more educated way, that we will have better decisions at the helm.
00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:25.039
Yeah, one thing when you spoke at our event that you pointed out is when they look at rents, it's it's historically older data that they're looking at when they're looking at rents in the inflation number.
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:28.319
And they're not not really looking at what people are paying.
00:27:28.319 --> 00:27:39.440
They're actually going and asking people, you said they kind of do this survey of what people are paying in a market, and they kind of use that as the basis for it, which I found like wildly crazy.
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:41.440
Um that's how they get the number.
00:27:41.839 --> 00:27:59.440
Owners equivalent rent makes up a part of it, and that's often just asking owners what they can rent their home for, but actual rents are finally starting to reflect um are actually the numbers that are being reported are finally starting to reflect what actual rents are.
00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:12.079
So we're seeing much more modest numbers be reflected now, but there's such a lag, and also the other way that you know of, I know, and is that the way that the data is collected is the country's so big that you only looked at one sixth per month.
00:28:12.079 --> 00:28:15.759
So that creates an inherent six-month lag or delay.
00:28:15.759 --> 00:28:20.960
A lot of these factors are hopefully going to be looked at and fixed.
00:28:20.960 --> 00:28:30.720
Another one is portfolio management fees, which those portfolio management fees are ridiculous and they are overstating inflation by about four-tenths year over year, which is meaningful.
00:28:30.720 --> 00:28:39.119
And those portfolio management fees, um, it if you have money with a broker dealer and they charge you, let's just say 1% on your assets.
00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:42.799
Now, if they go from one to one and a half or two percent, that's inflation.
00:28:42.799 --> 00:28:48.799
But if you're paying more in dollars because the stock market's doing well and you're making more money, well, that's not inflation that's hurting you.
00:28:48.799 --> 00:28:52.319
That you're happy to pay that because you know your assets are growing.
00:28:52.319 --> 00:28:54.240
That's not inflation.
00:28:54.240 --> 00:29:02.880
And I think that uh Kevin Walsh for the first time mentioned that, and and Stephen Meyer mentioned that, and that's one of the things they're looking at to hopefully fix.
00:29:02.880 --> 00:29:04.640
We've been complaining about that for a long time.
00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:13.519
So I think they're doing some things, and they're also going to look at the Dallas Feds trimmed mean, which is very smart because it takes away some of the uh noise.
00:29:13.519 --> 00:29:23.279
And it's it's like remember the old days of the Olympics, you know, the judges would show that, okay, this is how much it would take the top and the bottom scores, eliminate those, and go with the that's what it is.
00:29:23.279 --> 00:29:27.759
It's a trimmed, so you're trimming the high and lows and taking the average or the mean.
00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:31.119
Um, and and and that shows that inflation is really at 2.2% right now.
00:29:31.119 --> 00:29:35.359
So these are these are things I think that uh we are in the right direction.
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:36.880
We have a smarter Fed now.
00:29:36.880 --> 00:29:41.759
But but Mandy, what I also wanted to make sure we talked about together today is mindset.
00:29:41.759 --> 00:29:45.519
And I think that's one of the most important things that we have to think about today.
00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:49.200
So um is it okay if we kind of talk about Absolutely?
00:29:49.359 --> 00:29:50.559
I think we can absolutely pivot.
00:29:50.559 --> 00:30:02.000
I I I talk a lot a lot about that in my book and just controlling the controllables because a lot of what Barry just spoke about is so not in our wheelhouse to control as loan officers.
00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:06.480
I mean, we have no control over what any of the items he just spoke about.
00:30:06.480 --> 00:30:16.079
You know, they're they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and you have to insulate yourself from that by having a business plan that you can lay down.
00:30:16.079 --> 00:30:20.960
You have to be able to have daily tasks that you're gonna do regardless.
00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:32.319
And so a lot of loan officers I've seen quit the business is because they're living in the non-controllables, they're not living in their controllable space where they can win in any market.
00:30:32.319 --> 00:30:35.759
And so I know you you and I very much align on that topic.
00:30:35.759 --> 00:30:51.119
I heard you speak recently at the mastermind in Vegas, and and and you've had to really uh hone in your own personal mindset with uh with the illness you've gone through and running your business and family life and everything.
00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:55.440
And so, yes, I think it's absolutely important that we talk about mindset today.
00:30:55.759 --> 00:31:14.480
Well, Mandy, think about uh originators um from a business standpoint, aside from other challenges that come up in life, but from a business standpoint, we have been really through some times when it appeared that things were gonna go our way.
00:31:14.480 --> 00:31:32.720
Rates just get under 6%, refinance activity really perks up, uh, purchase activity starts to perk up, things are really going our way, but it's so short-lived and rates go back up and it's gut-wrenching, and it also is very demoralizing and discouraging for some people.
00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:51.359
Because look, whether it was you know quantitative tightening, whether it was the Russian Ukraine war, whether it was the tariff situation over a year ago, and this situation now in the Gulf, and then okay, well, we start to see some favorable signs because it looks like there's a deal, and that gets pulled out from under it.
00:31:51.359 --> 00:31:54.799
So, all of these things, you know, I've mapped it out.
00:31:54.799 --> 00:31:58.720
And since 2023, there have been 10 instances.
00:31:58.720 --> 00:32:08.640
I think if you were there at Mastermind, I showed the chart with 10 instances where rates had dipped to a level that they got real attractive, like below six percent.
00:32:08.640 --> 00:32:14.559
And you then see the brevity of each of those instances.
00:32:14.559 --> 00:32:17.599
Sometimes it was one day, so short, so sure.
00:32:17.599 --> 00:32:20.000
Four days, two days, three days.
00:32:20.000 --> 00:32:24.960
And and that could be that can really mess with you mentally, because here you are, you're right on.
00:32:24.960 --> 00:32:26.079
Okay, great, things are real, okay.
00:32:26.079 --> 00:32:29.440
And it just takes the wind out of your sails.
00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:32.480
But we can't control that, as you beautifully said.
00:32:32.480 --> 00:32:38.079
But what we can control is our behavior and our activities.
00:32:38.079 --> 00:32:43.039
Now, as you mentioned, you know, having gone through a terrible illness, and you know, I still go.
00:32:43.039 --> 00:32:45.599
It just came back from Los Angeles on Monday.
00:32:45.599 --> 00:32:47.680
I was there to get my treatment.
00:32:47.680 --> 00:32:51.039
I have to go back there every three weeks, and you know, I go through this.
00:32:51.039 --> 00:32:53.519
My next PET scan is the 31st of this month.
00:32:53.519 --> 00:33:00.400
So, you know, it's it's constantly there, but I know what I can control, and I know what I can't control.
00:33:00.400 --> 00:33:15.359
And it is the same whether you go through these disappointments in business or personal, whether it's in a love relationship, whether it's in a business situation, or like me, health, you know, these are things that that some people fall apart and they crumble.
00:33:15.359 --> 00:33:18.079
And they're like, oh, rates went up, I'm gonna quit.
00:33:18.079 --> 00:33:19.279
I'm not know what to do.
00:33:19.279 --> 00:33:22.960
They're gonna feel sorry for themselves, they're crying their suit, but you can't do that, okay?
00:33:22.960 --> 00:33:24.240
What can you do?
00:33:24.240 --> 00:33:25.279
What can I do?
00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:27.039
Are you talking to accounts?
00:33:27.039 --> 00:33:31.200
Because they're gonna have less interest rate sensitive opportunities.
00:33:31.200 --> 00:33:33.039
Are you talking to financial planners?
00:33:33.039 --> 00:33:35.119
Are you talking to divorce attorneys?
00:33:35.119 --> 00:33:40.400
Are you doing these things because somebody's gonna say, well, you know, I'm not gonna get divorced because rates are up, you know?
00:33:40.400 --> 00:33:55.680
Listen, that that's you you have to go and control where you can control the chances of a better outcome, as opposed to doing the same thing or complaining and bitching and moaning.
00:33:55.680 --> 00:33:56.559
Stop that.
00:33:56.559 --> 00:34:04.160
Look, when I when I found out about the cancer that I had, a terrible cancer, um, obviously I was upset.
00:34:04.160 --> 00:34:08.079
Obviously, I you know was devastated by it.
00:34:08.079 --> 00:34:13.360
But that very day, I had an obligation to do a presentation for 5,000 people that afternoon.
00:34:13.360 --> 00:34:14.719
I sucked it up and I did it.
00:34:14.719 --> 00:34:15.360
Why?
00:34:15.360 --> 00:34:19.840
Because I can't control the cancer, but I can control my activities and what I'm going to do.
00:34:19.840 --> 00:34:25.199
And I made a decision early on, I was going to let that steal from my joy and from being productive.
00:34:25.199 --> 00:34:33.119
And then going through the terrible chemo that I had and finding out after all that, all that, all that, thinking it was done.
00:34:33.119 --> 00:34:34.239
I remember it very well.
00:34:34.239 --> 00:34:46.000
August 2nd was my last of six rounds of chemo, five days of having a bag attached to me six times every three weeks, and going, you know, losing my hair, all that stuff, and feeling terrible.
00:34:46.000 --> 00:34:49.440
By the way, I worked through the whole thing, thinking it was done.
00:34:49.440 --> 00:34:54.320
That day I was with my family, got a little celebration, and actually it's a picture picture with my family.
00:34:54.320 --> 00:34:55.920
There was a rainbow behind me.
00:34:55.920 --> 00:34:59.599
It was like it was meant to be that it was gonna be fun, right?
00:34:59.599 --> 00:35:03.119
Well, September 3rd, I found out that it did not work.
00:35:03.119 --> 00:35:06.480
So I could have cried in my soup.
00:35:06.480 --> 00:35:09.920
I could have, you know, but when I when I spoke, I could have felt sorry for myself.
00:35:09.920 --> 00:35:13.920
But what I did was on the conversation with the doctor, okay, what do we do next?
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:15.199
What can we do?
00:35:15.199 --> 00:35:16.639
What's next?
00:35:16.639 --> 00:35:18.639
And what's next was radiation.
00:35:18.639 --> 00:35:21.280
That was not easy, but that didn't work.
00:35:21.280 --> 00:35:22.800
Okay, doctor, what's next?
00:35:22.800 --> 00:35:25.920
Well, then we did Car T, where it's sci-fi.
00:35:25.920 --> 00:35:30.400
They take your cells, they program, they put them back, and that had a high chance of being good.
00:35:30.400 --> 00:35:31.519
That didn't work.
00:35:31.519 --> 00:35:33.119
It was like an $800,000 procedure.
00:35:33.119 --> 00:35:34.960
Thank God I had insurance for it.
00:35:34.960 --> 00:35:36.639
Okay, what's next?
00:35:36.639 --> 00:35:41.519
And it was the positive attitude and constantly finding ways and doing the research.
00:35:41.519 --> 00:35:43.440
I found Patrick Soon Xiang, Dr.
00:35:43.440 --> 00:35:44.880
Patrick, he's very famous.
00:35:44.880 --> 00:35:48.239
So that's going out to LA every three weeks, and this drug Antiba.
00:35:48.239 --> 00:35:55.599
Um, he took me on, and thank goodness, you know, I'm in remission now since last May.
00:35:55.599 --> 00:35:57.599
Uh, I am grateful for every day.
00:35:57.599 --> 00:35:58.800
Every day is a joy.
00:35:58.800 --> 00:35:59.920
I make the most of it.
00:35:59.920 --> 00:36:02.320
I've decided to be happy every day.
00:36:02.320 --> 00:36:08.159
Um, and this is the mental attitude you have to have.
00:36:08.159 --> 00:36:10.320
It is, what can I control?
00:36:10.320 --> 00:36:12.719
If this didn't go my way, what's next?
00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:13.760
What can I do?
00:36:13.760 --> 00:36:15.519
I am not gonna feel sorry for myself.
00:36:15.519 --> 00:36:19.039
I'm not gonna cry in my suit, I'm not gonna give up ever.
00:36:19.039 --> 00:36:27.119
So, what am I going to do to make sure that I am successful in business, successful in my love relationship, successful in health?
00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:28.239
Yeah.
00:36:28.239 --> 00:36:32.480
I have personal um experience with cancer.
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:42.159
My biological dad died when he when I was nine, and then I had my bonus dad who raised me, and I'm blessed to have two amazing fathers in my life.
00:36:42.159 --> 00:36:45.760
And then my dad died of pancreatic cancer in 2020.
00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:51.920
But the reason I bring it up is not to be sad, but to say two things I learned from that experience.
00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:55.519
You can either live with cancer, you can die with cancer.
00:36:55.519 --> 00:37:02.639
That's a mindset, and you're gonna live with cancer and you're gonna fight, or you're gonna give up and quit and go the other way.
00:37:02.639 --> 00:37:06.639
And my biological dad just said, nope, basically I'm done.
00:37:06.639 --> 00:37:09.760
And my dad, Mike, he fought for a year, a year.
00:37:09.760 --> 00:37:16.960
We got an extra year with my dad with pancreatic cancer, and as you know, that does not have an awesome outcome, but he fought hard to live.
00:37:16.960 --> 00:37:44.480
And so, but what I also the gift from all that and what you brought up is sometimes the the light that shines through the darkness in our lives, which you've mentioned many times, even through this cancer journey you've been on, you've been given darkness and those cracks of light that have shined through, you you continue to have that mindset of carp ADM seizing the day, winning the day.
00:37:44.480 --> 00:38:05.840
And I do think that in the mortgage space, um, you need to have that too, because the 10 events that you brought up economically that we'd seen, or or you know, the 10 opportunities we'd had that went away like that uh with rates, I think you could shift into that, not carpet in, not seizing your day.
00:38:05.840 --> 00:38:27.360
And and so I think that your story and your willingness to work and shine and be there for your family and and want to live and figure out a way to beat cancer is so admirable because you could have easily said, I'm done, I'm not gonna be working, my kids are gonna take it over, I'm just gonna, you know, that's it.
00:38:27.360 --> 00:38:29.920
And instead, you doubled down, I feel like.
00:38:29.920 --> 00:38:31.599
And and that'd be what I'd say.
00:38:31.599 --> 00:38:34.559
When things get tough, friends, the tough get tougher.
00:38:34.559 --> 00:38:39.599
And that's what Barry, you've done, and and you you doubled down and and you got harder and stronger.
00:38:39.599 --> 00:38:41.599
And so I just very much applaud you.
00:38:41.920 --> 00:38:42.639
Well, thank you for that.
00:38:42.639 --> 00:38:43.920
Yeah, you know, I made a decision.
00:38:43.920 --> 00:38:53.039
I think we all need to make this decision every day, is that nothing is promised, and things can turn as we've seen, as we know, quickly, you know.
00:38:53.039 --> 00:38:57.360
So the decision I made was I want to be happy every day.
00:38:57.360 --> 00:39:05.599
I want to get I want to get from every day some some happiness, bring joy to others, and be on my path and be productive.
00:39:05.599 --> 00:39:08.480
So that's the decision every day that I hope that I make.
00:39:09.119 --> 00:39:13.280
Well, you have done that for me today, and I'm so, so grateful.
00:39:13.280 --> 00:39:15.199
I'm so grateful for your guidance.
00:39:15.199 --> 00:39:17.599
I'm so grateful in in 06.
00:39:17.599 --> 00:39:28.159
I had the honor of seeing you that back then and watching you have this beautifully successful career, many businesses, and you have brought joy to the mortgage industry and guidance that's much needed.
00:39:28.159 --> 00:39:31.920
And so, from from me to you, I just want to say thank you.
00:39:31.920 --> 00:39:44.800
You've influenced my life as an originator, and I know that this podcast will be one of the favorites for people to listen to because um, and you're just so genuine and real, and that makes such a difference when people meet you.
00:39:44.800 --> 00:39:47.599
So thank you for being just you and being a bright light.
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:48.800
You are so sweet.
00:39:48.800 --> 00:39:50.320
God bless you, and thank you.
00:39:50.320 --> 00:39:51.840
And thanks for doing this podcast.
00:39:51.840 --> 00:40:00.480
Thank you for having me on, and thank you for writing the book that you wrote because people really need to, they need to get gain that knowledge from you and that wisdom from you.
00:40:00.480 --> 00:40:01.679
Thank you for having me on.
00:40:01.840 --> 00:40:02.559
Thank you, Barry.
00:40:02.559 --> 00:40:03.519
Thank you.
00:00:23.199 --> 00:00:28.879
Hi, I'm Mandy Peeley Swain, and this is another episode of Origination Boost Podcast.
00:00:28.879 --> 00:00:40.560
Before I introduce our guests for today, which I'm super stoked about, I want to say that I'm super humbled and honored to say that my new book, Origination Boost, just became a bestseller on Amazon.
00:00:40.560 --> 00:00:43.359
So today is a big day for me personally.
00:00:43.359 --> 00:00:53.840
And I'm just grateful for all the support and love I've had from those around me to uh get to the finish line on this goal that I didn't know was a goal on my life bingo card.
00:00:53.840 --> 00:00:55.920
So sometimes it's just a matter of saying yes.
00:00:55.920 --> 00:01:02.320
And I just said yes to writing a book and sharing my heart and soul in the 30 years of in the mortgage space and the blessings that have come my way.
00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:04.400
And so I just want to say thank you again.
00:01:04.400 --> 00:01:07.760
And the ebook is on sale for 99 cents on Amazon.
00:01:07.760 --> 00:01:11.840
So if you're still if you're still interested in the book, that promo is still running.
00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:19.200
So, anyways, let's get to my guest today, which I'm super stoked about, somebody I've followed in the business since I was a kid.
00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:21.280
So I know he was a kid too.
00:01:21.280 --> 00:01:21.840
Um Mr.
00:01:21.840 --> 00:01:30.879
Barry Habib, um, he's well known in the mortgage industry, well respected for his forecasting and uh knowledge of the business.
00:01:30.879 --> 00:01:39.200
But the part I the part that for me, as still a frontline leader who does homeowns, his beginnings were in the mortgage space.
00:01:39.200 --> 00:01:44.640
I have all these great questions to ask you, but I just want to go to like the beginning.
00:01:44.640 --> 00:01:51.760
Like, did you trip into the mortgage business, or was it like family was already in, or how did that happen for you?
00:01:52.319 --> 00:01:54.400
So, first, thank you for having me on.
00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:59.200
And yes, I have a copy of your book, and I think it is terrific.
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So I would highly recommend it for anyone, and ridiculous, it's not a cost obstacle, obviously, but I think it would be of of a lot of help for individuals, and it's really well done, very easy to read.
00:02:13.199 --> 00:02:18.240
I just I like the fact that um just the page layout, it's it's just beautifully done, Mandy.
00:02:18.240 --> 00:02:20.080
So, first, thank you, congratulations on that.
00:02:20.080 --> 00:02:20.639
Thank you so much.
00:02:20.639 --> 00:02:24.240
It's a big, it's a big accomplishment, it's a big undertaking.
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Anybody who's done it knows that it is an enormous undertaking.
00:02:27.520 --> 00:02:34.400
So I just wanted to take a minute and congratulate you for not only doing it, but doing a great job on it too and creating value.
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Well, your support means a lot to me, so thank you.
00:02:38.159 --> 00:02:39.919
So, yeah, I did.
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Like so many people get into the mortgage business by accident.
00:02:43.840 --> 00:02:46.800
You know, it's uh uh it was a backdoor.
00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:58.080
Um, I uh as a young person, kind of entrepreneurial, I was buying real estate properties, um, and I was asking questions of the mortgage professional.
00:02:58.080 --> 00:03:00.000
You know, I went to school, had some financial background.
00:03:00.000 --> 00:03:02.400
I was like, you know, tell me about the mortgage business.
00:03:02.400 --> 00:03:03.439
I'm curious, you know.
00:03:03.439 --> 00:03:05.280
And they were telling me uh about it.
00:03:05.280 --> 00:03:08.080
I said, boy, that sounds like it could be interesting, it could be fun.
00:03:08.080 --> 00:03:11.039
And and yeah, that's kind of how I got in.
00:03:11.039 --> 00:03:14.319
I inquired about it and then uh took on a job.
00:03:14.319 --> 00:03:17.120
And, you know, when I did, I was the new kid on the block.
00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:22.159
So believe it or not, the way I started doing transactions, you know, I made this decision.
00:03:22.159 --> 00:03:30.400
I I was a new father of twins, and uh um this is going all the way back to 1986, and I had to put food on the table.
00:03:30.400 --> 00:03:31.919
And realtors, you know, they were a little hesitant.
00:03:31.919 --> 00:03:33.199
I'm the new kid on the block.
00:03:33.199 --> 00:03:39.360
So believe it or not, what I did was I knocked on people's doors and asked them if they wanted to refinance.
00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:44.240
And uh, and my third week in the business, third week in the business, wrote 16 loans.
00:03:44.240 --> 00:03:46.000
So uh people said, you know, how are you doing?
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I said, Well, I'm just I talk to everybody I can talk to about mortgages.
00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:52.080
Yeah.
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Well, that that uh were you were you fearful to go door to door?
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I mean, or were you like, I have to, because my why is pretty huge.
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I've got now twins on the way or in my life, and and I I don't have a choice at this point.
00:04:06.080 --> 00:04:07.039
I have to succeed.
00:04:07.280 --> 00:04:11.199
Yeah, you know, I think many of us get in our own head and we create obstacles where there are none.
00:04:11.199 --> 00:04:16.160
You know, one of the best decisions that one of the best lessons I learned is like, don't make the decision for the cop client.
00:04:16.160 --> 00:04:19.920
You know, I might say, well, I don't know if I do that, but the client may want to do that.
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So don't make the decision for them.
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Don't talk them out of it.
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Yeah, don't talk them out of it.
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Yeah.
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And and the other thing is is that going door to door, I will tell you that some people slam the door in my face.
00:04:32.720 --> 00:04:37.519
Uh, I think one actually called the police saying there's somebody coming around.
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But more often than not, people were like, Well, well, well, yeah, if I could save money, yeah, I would like to talk to you.
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I'd like to learn more.
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Uh, talk to me by now.
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Um, most of the time was leave me a card and then they call me later.
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Look, I I had that philosophy of talking to everyone.
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You know, I'll give you another example is that um this was I I'm mostly in Florida.
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I happen to be in New Jersey at the moment because I go back and forth, but mostly in Florida.
00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:13.920
Uh, this was in New Jersey, and um, when I first started in the mortgage business, again, having the need to, you know, try and be successful right away and talking to everyone I could, there's a lot of tolls in New Jersey.
00:05:13.920 --> 00:05:15.439
And, you know, I'm dating myself.
00:05:15.439 --> 00:05:26.560
So before the widespread use of the automated toll system where you put a device in your car, uh you could go through an exact change or where there was a toll collector if you didn't have exact change.
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Well, I have the exact change, but I went to where there was a toll collector and always did that and says, Hey, you know, if you can, if you are looking to buy a home and would need financing, or if I could save you some money on your current mortgage, please just give me a call.
00:05:43.279 --> 00:05:47.199
And I gave them the 25 cents and my business card.
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Now, all my buddies would give me so much crap about this because a lot of times I would be doing this when we were going up to a game or doing Barry, again, why don't you just go through the fast lane?
00:05:56.959 --> 00:06:06.800
I said, No, this is what I do, and they gave me so much crap on it until a guy by the name of Steve Horton from the Triborough Bridge Internal Authority called me.
00:06:06.800 --> 00:06:12.879
And not only did I do his loan, but I did 16 of his coworkers' loans.
00:06:12.879 --> 00:06:21.199
So it was just that always thinking out of the box, always finding ways to, even in slower times, to generate revenue.
00:06:21.680 --> 00:06:22.560
Yeah, I love it.
00:06:22.560 --> 00:06:25.040
And I I love that you just didn't end up right.
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And and so if you're listening to this and you're a loan officer, the thing, the key takeaway there is very gotten and said hello to people, humans, you are not gonna do it behind your computer.
00:06:35.920 --> 00:06:38.639
You're you're gonna have to get out and see people.
00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:58.480
And I and that there's like always for me in my 30 years, I think there's always a tipping point in loan officers' careers where, like you said, that's 16 loans, one one time with consistency doing that every time, going to the toll, giving your business card, consistently doing it, presented this opportunity.
00:06:58.480 --> 00:07:07.439
And it was like the tipping point of having 16 more loans in your in your pipeline, which is I'm not that's nobody's gonna be crying about that, right?
00:07:07.439 --> 00:07:09.360
They're all gonna be cheering for you.
00:07:09.360 --> 00:07:22.639
So what else in your I know we're gonna get to the meat and potatoes of what you do today, and so critical for loan officers to know what's going on in this crazy market we've been in since the taper tantrum of 22.
00:07:22.639 --> 00:07:26.160
But I love that you were in the business.
00:07:26.160 --> 00:07:38.800
I met uh the first in yeah interaction I had, and you didn't know it, was at a mastermind in 2006, where that was when Tim Raheem and you were there and and Chris Gardner was there.
00:07:38.800 --> 00:07:41.120
And I think Tony Robbins opened it that day.
00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:46.079
And and that's when right before Tim was gonna go to Italy for to live there.
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He made this goal to live there for a year.
00:07:48.319 --> 00:08:06.399
And so to me, you guys were the big shining stars of this mortgage business, and you brought such value to loan officers that really needed it, and and you gave I simple ideas like handing out business cards at the toll station to help loan officers build their business.
00:08:06.399 --> 00:08:09.920
It wasn't sexy, it was just work and it was real.
00:08:09.920 --> 00:08:18.959
And I related to that to the point that I remember uh Tim mentioning, you know, make your newsletters personal, put pictures of your family on it, you know.
00:08:18.959 --> 00:08:21.519
And to this day, that's part of my business.
00:08:21.519 --> 00:08:26.160
So I'm always a learner of the, you know, I always want to learn in this business.
00:08:26.160 --> 00:08:32.480
And you um at that event were such a critical influence in my initial years in the business.
00:08:32.480 --> 00:08:42.480
And and so I you may not have ever known that, but I think that it's important to know that you've been making a difference in loan originators' lives for a very, very long time.
00:08:42.639 --> 00:08:47.279
So Andy, I I love that it's you know, just you want to be on God's path.
00:08:47.279 --> 00:08:53.039
And when you know you're helping people and doing the right thing and making a positive influence, then you know you're on you're on the right path, right?
00:08:53.039 --> 00:08:55.120
So that's very, very important to me.
00:08:55.120 --> 00:09:07.360
And what's always been important as far as what I attributed some of the modest success that I had as an originator, and you know, back in the day, um, you know, people do much greater numbers now.
00:09:07.360 --> 00:09:19.440
But I I did 2 billion in originations when I was originating back in, I know it's a long time ago, but in 1993, um, Mortgage Originator magazine and broker magazine had me as the number one originator in the US.
00:09:19.440 --> 00:09:28.080
But I attribute a lot of that to the decision I made very early on to have a financial take on it.
00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:57.919
Where my consultations with the clients were really geared not just on providing a loan, but creating wealth, understanding the markets, understanding the timing of when they should lock in, understanding what the real estate market was doing, and showing them the opportunity in buying a home, or working with their other financial professionals and explaining to them the benefits of how they can use some of that capital to generate even more income for the long run.
00:09:57.919 --> 00:10:05.440
And you know, you look back on that, a lot of those clients that I talked to years ago, later on, they were like, oh my gosh, I wouldn't be able to put my kids through college if it wasn't for you.
00:10:05.440 --> 00:10:15.600
And it's very rewarding, or things like you know, my financial future, because what we did was we helped them and set them up where they pulled cash out or put less money down, put money in for retirement.
00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:20.799
It's not sexy at the moment, but 20 years later, it's really sexy.
00:10:20.799 --> 00:10:21.919
It's really amazing.
00:10:21.919 --> 00:10:24.320
You know, it's life-changing, literally.
00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:32.559
So the decisions that we make, and make it the first decision is understanding that as an originator, your job is not to provide a loan, it's to create wealth.
00:10:32.559 --> 00:10:35.039
Uh and that's really what it's about.
00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:36.240
Yeah, I love that.
00:10:36.240 --> 00:11:04.240
I think that I I I I was kind of reflecting on my career, you know, the book and and everything's out, and and I'm sure you've done this, but and obviously you have, because it the generational wealth that was provided to the families that I was able to help with their home loans has been um I I thought about that and I thought, well, if I've in the say in the last five years, if I've loaned a billion dollars in in loans, how much wealth has that brought to those families?
00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:12.879
And so I I think that we're in the greatest country in the U in the in the world to lend in the mortgage space.
00:11:12.879 --> 00:11:16.240
We have such an opportunity, the 30-year fix, thank God for it.
00:11:16.240 --> 00:11:28.159
And I mean, we live in an amazing country that somebody with mild education can go very far in this business if they're willing to card, if they have a heart of service and gratitude.
00:11:28.159 --> 00:11:30.879
And and you've proven that in your career.
00:11:30.879 --> 00:11:40.720
You pivot from being this billion-dollar producer, being on the front page, you know, front of article magazines and things like that as the biggest producer in the US.
00:11:40.720 --> 00:11:50.399
And then you you that transitioned you into the space of being the go-to for more all things market related.
00:11:50.399 --> 00:11:52.000
How did how did that transition?
00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.960
You got out, you know, what was that transition like for you?
00:11:55.279 --> 00:12:05.759
And by the way, that's something that you mentioned earlier that you shouldn't take for granted, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, because the United States is pretty much about the only place where you could do that because we have a mortgage-backed security market, right?
00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:10.799
So that's a very important um blessing that we enjoy.
00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:14.960
Uh my mortgage career, you know, it had a lot of parallels.
00:12:14.960 --> 00:12:23.360
You know, CNBC had me do uh a show for them, which which I did for 13 years, which was great, and then other networks.
00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:31.919
So I had a prominent position there, and then uh kind of springed that into becoming a professional speaker in the industry, which I still do quite a bit of.
00:12:31.919 --> 00:12:35.679
And uh, that was uh just something that was parallel.
00:12:35.679 --> 00:12:38.639
So these things really helped my career in general.
00:12:38.639 --> 00:12:45.200
But what I noticed is that a lot of people were counting on me for that market advice and expertise.
00:12:45.200 --> 00:12:48.639
And everybody was asking me, well, Barry, what's what's it look like things are gonna happen?
00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:57.679
And so I created Mortgage Market Guide, and and that became almost ubiquitous within many of the top producers within the industry and grew that into a significant business.
00:12:57.679 --> 00:13:05.840
And then I didn't like the way things were heading in 2007, so I sold that, uh, created CMPS and sold that as well.
00:13:05.840 --> 00:13:12.720
Uh, and then what that did is it gave me some time under a non-compete to do some other interesting things.
00:13:12.720 --> 00:13:27.759
So I started a medical imaging business and got into some entertainment uh where um I took Rock of Ages around the world and some other things, and Chris Angel in Vegas, and you know, believe it or not, did some movies uh where I had some roles as an actor.
00:13:27.759 --> 00:13:29.679
Uh, and and that that was a lot of fun.
00:13:29.679 --> 00:13:34.799
Um, but then people said, hey, look, you know, we kind of need you back, and started MBS Highway.
00:13:34.799 --> 00:13:48.799
And and that has has uh that has been just a blessing for me and growing into a uh a very large company where we acquired list reports, we created a certified mortgage advisor, uh, we have a whole home reports division, which is an amazing tool.
00:13:48.799 --> 00:13:52.320
So yeah, you know, it's just it's just gone into different areas now.
00:13:52.320 --> 00:13:59.679
One of the fun things I'm doing also, it's kind of like a hobby, but helping people get into aircraft space, um, which is really amazing.
00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:01.360
I love that whole whole thing.
00:14:01.360 --> 00:14:06.080
So that's kind of a sideline hobby that I'm doing, which has been just a joy and a lot of fun.
00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:07.519
Yeah, my husband's a pilot.
00:14:07.519 --> 00:14:10.399
He I'm gonna have to tell him that he'll get a kick out of that.
00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:15.759
Yeah, he uh he's he's uh loves uh his plane and loves flying.
00:14:15.759 --> 00:14:21.600
And so, but the other thing that I love about MBS Highway is you've gotten your kids involved, right?
00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:28.639
I mean, this is not that you have you've kind of passed on your knowledge to the your older kids and they're part of it, right?
00:14:28.960 --> 00:14:29.360
They are.
00:14:29.360 --> 00:14:31.279
I have four amazing children.
00:14:31.279 --> 00:14:40.240
So my older ones, Dan, which many people know because he's created his own uh personality in the mortgage industry, and he's someone that people rely upon.
00:14:40.240 --> 00:14:41.440
He does an amazing job.
00:14:41.440 --> 00:14:43.600
And his twin sister, Nicole.
00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:48.639
So both of them uh kind of grew up in the mortgage business, and then he originated with kids.
00:14:48.639 --> 00:14:52.960
Know that, you know, your kids are in the backseat, they kind of learned they could probably qualify people by now, right?
00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:55.039
Because they've listened to all our conversations.
00:14:55.039 --> 00:15:10.720
Um, so uh at a young age, you know, and they used to work with me at the mortgage company during the summers, but then when I started MBS Highway, uh Dan and Nicole were still a little bit young, but as they were kind of got a working age, they started really working with me there.
00:15:10.720 --> 00:15:14.799
Uh, and then after I sold, uh I meant to say mortgage market guide, excuse me.
00:15:14.879 --> 00:15:18.240
As I sold too many successful companies, that's all.
00:15:18.240 --> 00:15:18.879
That's all.
00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:23.519
As I sold mortgage market guide, my daughter, I had that non-compete period.
00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:31.039
My son Dan went to be a financial advisor, and my daughter Nicole became an originator, and she still is a successful originator today.
00:15:31.039 --> 00:15:38.639
And uh when I started to be a s highway, Dan says, Okay, I'm going to uh I'm gonna leave what I'm doing and come do that with you, Dad.
00:15:38.639 --> 00:15:51.279
Yes, Nicole uh stayed as an originator because she had a baby, and being an originator, while it's tough, it's very conducive to bringing up young children and being able to have your own hours and work from home.
00:15:51.279 --> 00:15:52.720
And so she did that.
00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:57.039
And now Jake and Jared, two younger boys who aren't so young anymore.
00:15:57.039 --> 00:15:59.279
Jake's 28, Jared's 25.
00:15:59.279 --> 00:16:04.399
Um, they from a young age started working with me at MBS Highway.
00:16:04.399 --> 00:16:06.399
And uh Jake's on camera all the time.
00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:09.200
Jared does a lot behind the scenes, so they play a very important role.
00:16:09.200 --> 00:16:10.399
So yeah, I love that.
00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:18.720
Um, I've been able to uh work with them, and we have a lot to talk about all the time because we could talk about the markets, we could talk about business, and you know it just keeps us very close.
00:16:19.200 --> 00:16:24.080
Strategies, too, you know, of and and because this is an ever-evolving.
00:16:24.080 --> 00:16:29.039
I think that you're gonna have to be flexible if you're in the market space.
00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:49.440
Whatever, whatever your seat is on the bus, I think flexibility is critical because the factors you talk about to originators, and the part I love about you know, come come and speak to our company here at Premiere and talk to our originators is you break it down so beautifully to make it simple.
00:16:49.440 --> 00:16:54.399
I think we can get stuck in the minutiae of the all of the things going on.
00:16:54.399 --> 00:17:02.639
My husband said, you know, you usually can follow the 10-year, you know, gas prices go up, so do rates, gas prices come down, so do rates.
00:17:02.639 --> 00:17:05.119
That lately that's all off the board.
00:17:05.119 --> 00:17:08.640
Kind of, I mean, it's just it's been kind of messy lately.
00:17:08.640 --> 00:17:18.799
Why don't you weigh in on the the the most recent kind of crazy because what us are old dogs and new, we is kind of not playing right now.
00:17:19.279 --> 00:17:20.400
I will, and you're right.
00:17:20.400 --> 00:17:27.759
Um, but but before that, um, you know, one other benefit of working with my kids is that I used to teach them stuff.
00:17:27.759 --> 00:17:31.519
They teach me a lot of stuff now, too, which is really important and really great.
00:17:31.519 --> 00:17:37.359
Um, but you also mentioned something else about breaking things down so they're easier to understand.
00:17:37.359 --> 00:17:47.279
I have to tell you that as a salesperson, and all of us really are, the most important thing you can have is presentation skills.
00:17:47.279 --> 00:17:50.079
That is much more important than having a better rate.
00:17:50.079 --> 00:17:53.839
That's much more important than having a product that's really good.
00:17:53.839 --> 00:17:59.279
You could have great rates and great product if you're a lousy presenter, the message is going to get across.
00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:00.400
Yeah.
00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:06.400
So so what we have to really work on more than anything are our presentation skills.
00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:10.000
So I want to ask you, are you recording your phone conversations and listening to them?
00:18:10.000 --> 00:18:14.480
Are you seeing where you lost customers, where you lit them up and they really caught on?
00:18:14.480 --> 00:18:18.000
Are you getting in your presentation from point A to point B?
00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:21.680
Do you have this mapped out so it follows a chronological order?
00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:33.920
Your discussion shouldn't be like a murder mystery where the client's trying to figure this out and you're skipping chronological events where you're going from here to here to here and losing them because they'll just nod their head and say yes, but they aren't following you.
00:18:33.920 --> 00:18:39.680
Are you metaphorically holding them by the hand and taking them through the process?
00:18:39.680 --> 00:18:42.559
Are you asking in every transaction two critical questions?
00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:46.079
One, what are your thoughts and then listening to them?
00:18:46.079 --> 00:18:49.279
And then, what are your concerns and listening to them?
00:18:49.279 --> 00:18:51.519
Are you doing that every single time?
00:18:51.519 --> 00:18:53.359
Because you need to do that.
00:18:53.359 --> 00:19:01.759
And as we talk about what's the current events and what's going on, yes, the situation in the Middle East is a very big driving factor.
00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:02.400
Why?
00:19:02.400 --> 00:19:04.960
Well, let's take this chronologically.
00:19:04.960 --> 00:19:11.839
Interest rates, if you are loaning money long term like a mortgage, so think about that.
00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:19.839
Inflation plays a big role because if I've loaned more money on a mortgage, I'm getting, for the most part, a fixed return.
00:19:19.839 --> 00:19:24.640
So if my mortgage payment back to me is, I'm just gonna pick a number, $2,000 a month.
00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:28.720
So I'm getting $2,000 a month this year, next year, the year after, the year after.
00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:43.279
But if I took that $2,000 a month that I got and went shopping with it, well, what I buy this year is not going to buy the same stuff that I am able to buy next year if there's inflation and less the year after and yes than the year after.
00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:52.559
So the amount of inflation has an erosive effect on that fixed payment because the payment's fixed, but inflation keeps going.
00:19:52.559 --> 00:19:55.599
So my buying power is getting softer and weaker.
00:19:55.599 --> 00:20:08.799
Now, if I know where the rate of inflation is, I can contemplate that and I can say, okay, if you give me this rate of return, I can account for inflation and I could still make some money on the deal.
00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:09.440
Okay.
00:20:09.440 --> 00:20:12.559
But now what if inflation starts to go up?
00:20:12.559 --> 00:20:19.119
Well, that rate of evaporation or erosion or removal of buying power starts to happen more rapidly.
00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:20.960
So what I'm left with is less.
00:20:20.960 --> 00:20:24.400
Now, I can't, as a lender, control inflation.
00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:25.839
But what can I control?
00:20:25.839 --> 00:20:34.400
I can control the rate of interest I charge you to make sure the rate of interest I receive is contemplating that now higher rate of inflation.
00:20:34.400 --> 00:20:37.839
So if inflation goes up, I have to charge a higher interest rate.
00:20:37.839 --> 00:20:42.640
And if you just understand that simple concept, you'll know more than 99% of mortgage originators.
00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:51.279
But what it also gives you is an understanding of why things that impact inflation impact mortgage rates.
00:20:51.279 --> 00:21:01.119
So if you see the job market gets super hot, well, that means people are going to demand more wages as you compete over the workers that are available.
00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:05.279
So if wages start going up, well, people will make more, they'll spend more.
00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:06.480
It's our human nature.
00:21:06.480 --> 00:21:12.319
If you're spending more and you get more money, the definition of inflation is too many dollars chasing too few products.
00:21:12.319 --> 00:21:14.960
So that causes inflation, which causes rates to go up.
00:21:14.960 --> 00:21:20.480
If the job market gets slower, if the economy gets slower, if there's a recession, interest rates come down.
00:21:20.480 --> 00:21:23.759
Another factor is oil prices.
00:21:23.759 --> 00:21:25.839
And that's one that's really important right now.
00:21:25.839 --> 00:21:30.559
Now you started out with this, and it's a little bit of a long explanation, but this goes to the presentation, right?
00:21:30.559 --> 00:21:32.799
We want to break this down so we can understand.
00:21:32.799 --> 00:21:39.359
If I just told you why oil prices affect it, well, it's a disjointed picture, but I want to explain why oil prices are important.
00:21:39.759 --> 00:21:40.079
Absolutely.
00:21:40.319 --> 00:21:47.359
So oil prices are a huge percentage of economic activity and inflation.
00:21:47.359 --> 00:21:59.039
It makes up about 12 to 13 percent of the CPI consumer price index or PCE personal consumption expenditures gauges that tell us where inflation is.
00:21:59.039 --> 00:22:01.519
So that's A very big number.
00:22:01.519 --> 00:22:09.839
And given that it's so important, if oil prices rise dramatically, well, then that's going to result in people paying more for gasoline.
00:22:09.839 --> 00:22:17.759
And it's going to mean that there is inflationary pressures that are going to result, that's going to be showing up in the numbers, and interest rates are going to go up.
00:22:17.759 --> 00:22:24.400
If oil prices come down, that can really help subside inflation and bring interest rates lower.
00:22:24.400 --> 00:22:28.960
But the situation in the Middle East is one that can have a dramatic effect.
00:22:28.960 --> 00:22:32.079
This is not your normal fluctuations in oil prices.
00:22:32.079 --> 00:22:36.240
So a barrel of oil, it's two typical ways to measure it.
00:22:36.240 --> 00:22:38.079
In Europe, they use something called Brent.
00:22:38.079 --> 00:22:43.440
In the United States, we use West Texas Intermediate or WTI.
00:22:43.440 --> 00:22:50.079
So that price of WTI for barrel, a barrel of oil makes about 42 gallons of gasoline.
00:22:50.079 --> 00:22:55.839
So a barrel of oil, it was before this latest situation in the Middle East.
00:22:55.839 --> 00:23:03.200
If you go back to February this year, so you just turn the clock back five or six months, and we were at about $67 a barrel.
00:23:03.200 --> 00:23:11.279
Now that went all the way up to $117 a barrel, which coincided with the huge rise you'd seen in mortgage rates.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:17.119
Now oil has come down to more reasonable levels, but it's still elevated to where we were.
00:23:17.119 --> 00:23:23.680
But there are underlying concerns because 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Ormuz.
00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:31.519
If we have that closed, it creates a big shortage because people depend on oil.
00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:35.599
And now there are other ways to get it, but oil's a global commodity.
00:23:35.599 --> 00:23:38.960
So it's being bid for in India, Europe, and in the US.
00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:41.200
So you might say, okay, we can get it from Venezuela.
00:23:41.200 --> 00:23:45.279
Well, that's great, but that's also being bid for from India.
00:23:45.279 --> 00:23:48.079
It's being bid for in Europe, and it's being bid for here.
00:23:48.079 --> 00:23:50.000
So we're going to pay a higher price for it.
00:23:50.000 --> 00:23:55.440
So until that kind of subsides, we might have an inflationary impulse from that.
00:23:55.440 --> 00:24:00.640
And you know, we might say, well, isn't the US a large provider of oil?
00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:07.119
We are 14 million barrels a day, head and shoulders above even Saudi Arabia of Russia, near to 10 million barrels a day.
00:24:07.119 --> 00:24:07.920
So why?
00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:14.240
Well, we produce light, sweet crude, which is great, but our refineries are set up for heavy sour.
00:24:14.559 --> 00:24:14.799
Yeah.
00:24:15.039 --> 00:24:17.680
And that means we do have to import a lot of that.
00:24:17.680 --> 00:24:21.359
So we'll export a lot, and that's good, but we have to still import.
00:24:21.359 --> 00:24:25.519
So these are things that people say, why am I paying so much at the pump?
00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:27.200
If indeed we produce so much.
00:24:27.200 --> 00:24:29.200
Well, what we produce, we don't refine here.
00:24:29.200 --> 00:24:30.720
So it makes for a difficult time.
00:24:30.960 --> 00:24:36.160
The refineries aren't set up basically to produce the kind of oil that we have here.
00:24:36.160 --> 00:24:39.039
And so that's what that's the gap, right?
00:24:39.039 --> 00:24:42.400
And the cost to change those is significant.
00:24:42.400 --> 00:24:46.240
And who wants to have in their and and time-wise, so long.
00:24:46.559 --> 00:24:50.799
Years and years to create a refinery, who wants it in their backyard, the whole nine yards, right?
00:24:50.799 --> 00:24:53.519
So uh there are challenges to switch over.
00:24:53.519 --> 00:24:56.559
It's easier to just import it, especially when all is cheap.
00:24:56.559 --> 00:25:04.720
But um, but but we are in a situation where um the shortages, even if you open up the straight of war moves, would probably take about 18 months.
00:25:04.720 --> 00:25:07.359
Now the oil markets will respond sooner than that.
00:25:07.359 --> 00:25:14.240
Um, but I do believe that eventually we will have some sort of a resolution to that, and that will result in some lower rates.
00:25:14.240 --> 00:25:16.000
But then we have the Fed.
00:25:16.000 --> 00:25:24.720
And the Fed has been has been a thorn in our side for so long because under under Janet Yellen, we had some issues with the Fed.
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:31.200
Under Jerome Powell, you go back to 2021 and 2022, kept interest rates and quantitative easing going too long.
00:25:31.200 --> 00:25:46.720
He completely ignored the fact that rents were going up so much and it carries so much weight in the inflation numbers, but there is a lag between rents actually going up and between the time that they show up in the inflation numbers, that he allowed for inflation to get out of control.
00:25:46.720 --> 00:25:49.039
And he was not a good Fed chair.
00:25:49.039 --> 00:25:53.839
We have a great Fed chair now, but you have members of the Fed that don't really understand it.
00:25:53.839 --> 00:26:05.759
People like Beth Hammock and Laurie Logan and Neil Kashikari were voting members that just prove over and over that they just read headlines and don't go deep on this stuff and they don't have the understanding of how this stuff works.
00:26:05.759 --> 00:26:12.640
Uh, we are currently in a situation where if they were to raise rates, that's not do anything for oil prices.
00:26:12.640 --> 00:26:22.799
All it will do is create disruption in the economy and hurt the economy, which will bring down inflation, but it will hurt economic activity and hurt the very people you're trying to protect.
00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:23.599
Trying to help.
00:26:23.680 --> 00:26:23.759
Yeah.
00:26:24.000 --> 00:26:24.240
Yeah.
00:26:24.240 --> 00:26:27.279
So we are in a difficult situation.
00:26:27.279 --> 00:26:38.400
What the Fed also did under Jerome Powell is in December, thought they could be useful in creating more liquidity by purchasing $40 billion a month in short-term treasuries.
00:26:38.400 --> 00:26:41.920
All that did was create an influx of money supply.
00:26:41.920 --> 00:26:48.160
And when you have more money supply, then you have gross output, it creates inflation.
00:26:48.160 --> 00:26:52.640
And so the Fed created some of the inflationary impulse we have now, along with oil.
00:26:52.640 --> 00:26:55.839
Uh, thank goodness under Jerome Powell, that's over.
00:26:55.839 --> 00:27:04.000
But now under Kevin Warsh, uh I think Kevin Warsh is a very good Fed share and you'll see less quantitative easing.
00:27:04.000 --> 00:27:13.039
And I think that we will have a Fed that now has these task forces to look at this in a more educated way, that we will have better decisions at the helm.
00:27:13.440 --> 00:27:25.039
Yeah, one thing when you spoke at our event that you pointed out is when they look at rents, it's it's historically older data that they're looking at when they're looking at rents in the inflation number.
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:28.319
And they're not not really looking at what people are paying.
00:27:28.319 --> 00:27:39.440
They're actually going and asking people, you said they kind of do this survey of what people are paying in a market, and they kind of use that as the basis for it, which I found like wildly crazy.
00:27:39.440 --> 00:27:41.440
Um that's how they get the number.
00:27:41.839 --> 00:27:59.440
Owners equivalent rent makes up a part of it, and that's often just asking owners what they can rent their home for, but actual rents are finally starting to reflect um are actually the numbers that are being reported are finally starting to reflect what actual rents are.
00:27:59.440 --> 00:28:12.079
So we're seeing much more modest numbers be reflected now, but there's such a lag, and also the other way that you know of, I know, and is that the way that the data is collected is the country's so big that you only looked at one sixth per month.
00:28:12.079 --> 00:28:15.759
So that creates an inherent six-month lag or delay.
00:28:15.759 --> 00:28:20.960
A lot of these factors are hopefully going to be looked at and fixed.
00:28:20.960 --> 00:28:30.720
Another one is portfolio management fees, which those portfolio management fees are ridiculous and they are overstating inflation by about four-tenths year over year, which is meaningful.
00:28:30.720 --> 00:28:39.119
And those portfolio management fees, um, it if you have money with a broker dealer and they charge you, let's just say 1% on your assets.
00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:42.799
Now, if they go from one to one and a half or two percent, that's inflation.
00:28:42.799 --> 00:28:48.799
But if you're paying more in dollars because the stock market's doing well and you're making more money, well, that's not inflation that's hurting you.
00:28:48.799 --> 00:28:52.319
That you're happy to pay that because you know your assets are growing.
00:28:52.319 --> 00:28:54.240
That's not inflation.
00:28:54.240 --> 00:29:02.880
And I think that uh Kevin Walsh for the first time mentioned that, and and Stephen Meyer mentioned that, and that's one of the things they're looking at to hopefully fix.
00:29:02.880 --> 00:29:04.640
We've been complaining about that for a long time.
00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:13.519
So I think they're doing some things, and they're also going to look at the Dallas Feds trimmed mean, which is very smart because it takes away some of the uh noise.
00:29:13.519 --> 00:29:23.279
And it's it's like remember the old days of the Olympics, you know, the judges would show that, okay, this is how much it would take the top and the bottom scores, eliminate those, and go with the that's what it is.
00:29:23.279 --> 00:29:27.759
It's a trimmed, so you're trimming the high and lows and taking the average or the mean.
00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:31.119
Um, and and and that shows that inflation is really at 2.2% right now.
00:29:31.119 --> 00:29:35.359
So these are these are things I think that uh we are in the right direction.
00:29:35.359 --> 00:29:36.880
We have a smarter Fed now.
00:29:36.880 --> 00:29:41.759
But but Mandy, what I also wanted to make sure we talked about together today is mindset.
00:29:41.759 --> 00:29:45.519
And I think that's one of the most important things that we have to think about today.
00:29:45.519 --> 00:29:49.200
So um is it okay if we kind of talk about Absolutely?
00:29:49.359 --> 00:29:50.559
I think we can absolutely pivot.
00:29:50.559 --> 00:30:02.000
I I I talk a lot a lot about that in my book and just controlling the controllables because a lot of what Barry just spoke about is so not in our wheelhouse to control as loan officers.
00:30:02.000 --> 00:30:06.480
I mean, we have no control over what any of the items he just spoke about.
00:30:06.480 --> 00:30:16.079
You know, they're they're gonna do what they're gonna do, and you have to insulate yourself from that by having a business plan that you can lay down.
00:30:16.079 --> 00:30:20.960
You have to be able to have daily tasks that you're gonna do regardless.
00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:32.319
And so a lot of loan officers I've seen quit the business is because they're living in the non-controllables, they're not living in their controllable space where they can win in any market.
00:30:32.319 --> 00:30:35.759
And so I know you you and I very much align on that topic.
00:30:35.759 --> 00:30:51.119
I heard you speak recently at the mastermind in Vegas, and and and you've had to really uh hone in your own personal mindset with uh with the illness you've gone through and running your business and family life and everything.
00:30:51.119 --> 00:30:55.440
And so, yes, I think it's absolutely important that we talk about mindset today.
00:30:55.759 --> 00:31:14.480
Well, Mandy, think about uh originators um from a business standpoint, aside from other challenges that come up in life, but from a business standpoint, we have been really through some times when it appeared that things were gonna go our way.
00:31:14.480 --> 00:31:32.720
Rates just get under 6%, refinance activity really perks up, uh, purchase activity starts to perk up, things are really going our way, but it's so short-lived and rates go back up and it's gut-wrenching, and it also is very demoralizing and discouraging for some people.
00:31:32.720 --> 00:31:51.359
Because look, whether it was you know quantitative tightening, whether it was the Russian Ukraine war, whether it was the tariff situation over a year ago, and this situation now in the Gulf, and then okay, well, we start to see some favorable signs because it looks like there's a deal, and that gets pulled out from under it.
00:31:51.359 --> 00:31:54.799
So, all of these things, you know, I've mapped it out.
00:31:54.799 --> 00:31:58.720
And since 2023, there have been 10 instances.
00:31:58.720 --> 00:32:08.640
I think if you were there at Mastermind, I showed the chart with 10 instances where rates had dipped to a level that they got real attractive, like below six percent.
00:32:08.640 --> 00:32:14.559
And you then see the brevity of each of those instances.
00:32:14.559 --> 00:32:17.599
Sometimes it was one day, so short, so sure.
00:32:17.599 --> 00:32:20.000
Four days, two days, three days.
00:32:20.000 --> 00:32:24.960
And and that could be that can really mess with you mentally, because here you are, you're right on.
00:32:24.960 --> 00:32:26.079
Okay, great, things are real, okay.
00:32:26.079 --> 00:32:29.440
And it just takes the wind out of your sails.
00:32:29.440 --> 00:32:32.480
But we can't control that, as you beautifully said.
00:32:32.480 --> 00:32:38.079
But what we can control is our behavior and our activities.
00:32:38.079 --> 00:32:43.039
Now, as you mentioned, you know, having gone through a terrible illness, and you know, I still go.
00:32:43.039 --> 00:32:45.599
It just came back from Los Angeles on Monday.
00:32:45.599 --> 00:32:47.680
I was there to get my treatment.
00:32:47.680 --> 00:32:51.039
I have to go back there every three weeks, and you know, I go through this.
00:32:51.039 --> 00:32:53.519
My next PET scan is the 31st of this month.
00:32:53.519 --> 00:33:00.400
So, you know, it's it's constantly there, but I know what I can control, and I know what I can't control.
00:33:00.400 --> 00:33:15.359
And it is the same whether you go through these disappointments in business or personal, whether it's in a love relationship, whether it's in a business situation, or like me, health, you know, these are things that that some people fall apart and they crumble.
00:33:15.359 --> 00:33:18.079
And they're like, oh, rates went up, I'm gonna quit.
00:33:18.079 --> 00:33:19.279
I'm not know what to do.
00:33:19.279 --> 00:33:22.960
They're gonna feel sorry for themselves, they're crying their suit, but you can't do that, okay?
00:33:22.960 --> 00:33:24.240
What can you do?
00:33:24.240 --> 00:33:25.279
What can I do?
00:33:25.279 --> 00:33:27.039
Are you talking to accounts?
00:33:27.039 --> 00:33:31.200
Because they're gonna have less interest rate sensitive opportunities.
00:33:31.200 --> 00:33:33.039
Are you talking to financial planners?
00:33:33.039 --> 00:33:35.119
Are you talking to divorce attorneys?
00:33:35.119 --> 00:33:40.400
Are you doing these things because somebody's gonna say, well, you know, I'm not gonna get divorced because rates are up, you know?
00:33:40.400 --> 00:33:55.680
Listen, that that's you you have to go and control where you can control the chances of a better outcome, as opposed to doing the same thing or complaining and bitching and moaning.
00:33:55.680 --> 00:33:56.559
Stop that.
00:33:56.559 --> 00:34:04.160
Look, when I when I found out about the cancer that I had, a terrible cancer, um, obviously I was upset.
00:34:04.160 --> 00:34:08.079
Obviously, I you know was devastated by it.
00:34:08.079 --> 00:34:13.360
But that very day, I had an obligation to do a presentation for 5,000 people that afternoon.
00:34:13.360 --> 00:34:14.719
I sucked it up and I did it.
00:34:14.719 --> 00:34:15.360
Why?
00:34:15.360 --> 00:34:19.840
Because I can't control the cancer, but I can control my activities and what I'm going to do.
00:34:19.840 --> 00:34:25.199
And I made a decision early on, I was going to let that steal from my joy and from being productive.
00:34:25.199 --> 00:34:33.119
And then going through the terrible chemo that I had and finding out after all that, all that, all that, thinking it was done.
00:34:33.119 --> 00:34:34.239
I remember it very well.
00:34:34.239 --> 00:34:46.000
August 2nd was my last of six rounds of chemo, five days of having a bag attached to me six times every three weeks, and going, you know, losing my hair, all that stuff, and feeling terrible.
00:34:46.000 --> 00:34:49.440
By the way, I worked through the whole thing, thinking it was done.
00:34:49.440 --> 00:34:54.320
That day I was with my family, got a little celebration, and actually it's a picture picture with my family.
00:34:54.320 --> 00:34:55.920
There was a rainbow behind me.
00:34:55.920 --> 00:34:59.599
It was like it was meant to be that it was gonna be fun, right?
00:34:59.599 --> 00:35:03.119
Well, September 3rd, I found out that it did not work.
00:35:03.119 --> 00:35:06.480
So I could have cried in my soup.
00:35:06.480 --> 00:35:09.920
I could have, you know, but when I when I spoke, I could have felt sorry for myself.
00:35:09.920 --> 00:35:13.920
But what I did was on the conversation with the doctor, okay, what do we do next?
00:35:13.920 --> 00:35:15.199
What can we do?
00:35:15.199 --> 00:35:16.639
What's next?
00:35:16.639 --> 00:35:18.639
And what's next was radiation.
00:35:18.639 --> 00:35:21.280
That was not easy, but that didn't work.
00:35:21.280 --> 00:35:22.800
Okay, doctor, what's next?
00:35:22.800 --> 00:35:25.920
Well, then we did Car T, where it's sci-fi.
00:35:25.920 --> 00:35:30.400
They take your cells, they program, they put them back, and that had a high chance of being good.
00:35:30.400 --> 00:35:31.519
That didn't work.
00:35:31.519 --> 00:35:33.119
It was like an $800,000 procedure.
00:35:33.119 --> 00:35:34.960
Thank God I had insurance for it.
00:35:34.960 --> 00:35:36.639
Okay, what's next?
00:35:36.639 --> 00:35:41.519
And it was the positive attitude and constantly finding ways and doing the research.
00:35:41.519 --> 00:35:43.440
I found Patrick Soon Xiang, Dr.
00:35:43.440 --> 00:35:44.880
Patrick, he's very famous.
00:35:44.880 --> 00:35:48.239
So that's going out to LA every three weeks, and this drug Antiba.
00:35:48.239 --> 00:35:55.599
Um, he took me on, and thank goodness, you know, I'm in remission now since last May.
00:35:55.599 --> 00:35:57.599
Uh, I am grateful for every day.
00:35:57.599 --> 00:35:58.800
Every day is a joy.
00:35:58.800 --> 00:35:59.920
I make the most of it.
00:35:59.920 --> 00:36:02.320
I've decided to be happy every day.
00:36:02.320 --> 00:36:08.159
Um, and this is the mental attitude you have to have.
00:36:08.159 --> 00:36:10.320
It is, what can I control?
00:36:10.320 --> 00:36:12.719
If this didn't go my way, what's next?
00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:13.760
What can I do?
00:36:13.760 --> 00:36:15.519
I am not gonna feel sorry for myself.
00:36:15.519 --> 00:36:19.039
I'm not gonna cry in my suit, I'm not gonna give up ever.
00:36:19.039 --> 00:36:27.119
So, what am I going to do to make sure that I am successful in business, successful in my love relationship, successful in health?
00:36:27.760 --> 00:36:28.239
Yeah.
00:36:28.239 --> 00:36:32.480
I have personal um experience with cancer.
00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:42.159
My biological dad died when he when I was nine, and then I had my bonus dad who raised me, and I'm blessed to have two amazing fathers in my life.
00:36:42.159 --> 00:36:45.760
And then my dad died of pancreatic cancer in 2020.
00:36:45.760 --> 00:36:51.920
But the reason I bring it up is not to be sad, but to say two things I learned from that experience.
00:36:51.920 --> 00:36:55.519
You can either live with cancer, you can die with cancer.
00:36:55.519 --> 00:37:02.639
That's a mindset, and you're gonna live with cancer and you're gonna fight, or you're gonna give up and quit and go the other way.
00:37:02.639 --> 00:37:06.639
And my biological dad just said, nope, basically I'm done.
00:37:06.639 --> 00:37:09.760
And my dad, Mike, he fought for a year, a year.
00:37:09.760 --> 00:37:16.960
We got an extra year with my dad with pancreatic cancer, and as you know, that does not have an awesome outcome, but he fought hard to live.
00:37:16.960 --> 00:37:44.480
And so, but what I also the gift from all that and what you brought up is sometimes the the light that shines through the darkness in our lives, which you've mentioned many times, even through this cancer journey you've been on, you've been given darkness and those cracks of light that have shined through, you you continue to have that mindset of carp ADM seizing the day, winning the day.
00:37:44.480 --> 00:38:05.840
And I do think that in the mortgage space, um, you need to have that too, because the 10 events that you brought up economically that we'd seen, or or you know, the 10 opportunities we'd had that went away like that uh with rates, I think you could shift into that, not carpet in, not seizing your day.
00:38:05.840 --> 00:38:27.360
And and so I think that your story and your willingness to work and shine and be there for your family and and want to live and figure out a way to beat cancer is so admirable because you could have easily said, I'm done, I'm not gonna be working, my kids are gonna take it over, I'm just gonna, you know, that's it.
00:38:27.360 --> 00:38:29.920
And instead, you doubled down, I feel like.
00:38:29.920 --> 00:38:31.599
And and that'd be what I'd say.
00:38:31.599 --> 00:38:34.559
When things get tough, friends, the tough get tougher.
00:38:34.559 --> 00:38:39.599
And that's what Barry, you've done, and and you you doubled down and and you got harder and stronger.
00:38:39.599 --> 00:38:41.599
And so I just very much applaud you.
00:38:41.920 --> 00:38:42.639
Well, thank you for that.
00:38:42.639 --> 00:38:43.920
Yeah, you know, I made a decision.
00:38:43.920 --> 00:38:53.039
I think we all need to make this decision every day, is that nothing is promised, and things can turn as we've seen, as we know, quickly, you know.
00:38:53.039 --> 00:38:57.360
So the decision I made was I want to be happy every day.
00:38:57.360 --> 00:39:05.599
I want to get I want to get from every day some some happiness, bring joy to others, and be on my path and be productive.
00:39:05.599 --> 00:39:08.480
So that's the decision every day that I hope that I make.
00:39:09.119 --> 00:39:13.280
Well, you have done that for me today, and I'm so, so grateful.
00:39:13.280 --> 00:39:15.199
I'm so grateful for your guidance.
00:39:15.199 --> 00:39:17.599
I'm so grateful in in 06.
00:39:17.599 --> 00:39:28.159
I had the honor of seeing you that back then and watching you have this beautifully successful career, many businesses, and you have brought joy to the mortgage industry and guidance that's much needed.
00:39:28.159 --> 00:39:31.920
And so, from from me to you, I just want to say thank you.
00:39:31.920 --> 00:39:44.800
You've influenced my life as an originator, and I know that this podcast will be one of the favorites for people to listen to because um, and you're just so genuine and real, and that makes such a difference when people meet you.
00:39:44.800 --> 00:39:47.599
So thank you for being just you and being a bright light.
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:48.800
You are so sweet.
00:39:48.800 --> 00:39:50.320
God bless you, and thank you.
00:39:50.320 --> 00:39:51.840
And thanks for doing this podcast.
00:39:51.840 --> 00:40:00.480
Thank you for having me on, and thank you for writing the book that you wrote because people really need to, they need to get gain that knowledge from you and that wisdom from you.
00:40:00.480 --> 00:40:01.679
Thank you for having me on.
00:40:01.840 --> 00:40:02.559
Thank you, Barry.
00:40:02.559 --> 00:40:03.519
Thank you.
