00:00:00
Speaker 1: Bengals!
00:00:01
Speaker 2: The Bengals travel to Texas to take on Houston in a Lone Star Showdown. Which raises an important question. What style of chili do I prefer? Hmm, I'm not sure, but they both make me gassy. Can the orange and black handle Houston? Or will the Texans defend their home turf? Coverage begins Sunday morning at 9 a.m. Stream for free on the new and improved iHeartRadio app. or on ESPN 1530, the official home of the Cincinnati Bengals. It's the Bengals and Texans.
00:00:36
Speaker 3: Sure is. 505-ESPN-1530. Mo Egger, thank you for listening. Hope you're having an awesome Tuesday afternoon.
00:00:43
Speaker 1: We want to thank the.
00:00:43
Speaker 3: Folks at Delightmore for hosting us here at the Mercantile Immersive, an awesome venue here, downtown Cincinnati. The folks at Delightmore, over 70 years of combined knowledge in the catering and hospitality business. They serve weddings, corporate and social events all year long. This venue here, the Mercantile Immersive, On 4th Street downtown, awesome for any kind of party, any kind of an event. Bengals watch party with Cincinnati taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers a week from Sunday. They'll have food stations. They'll have a full bar. It is going to be absolutely awesome. You can learn more at mercantileimmersive.com. We have obviously been pretty heavy on the Bengals, and for good reason, Paul Daner Jr. in the first hour of this show. If you missed it, we'll podcast it on the iHeartRadio app.
00:01:33
Speaker 1: We will kind.
00:01:34
Speaker 3: Of put a bow on the Reds' season because they played their last meaningful game last night, and it was sort of the season, and maybe this franchise in a nutshell, where Eli De La Cruz does something awesome, hits the ball halfway to Tennessee, but the Reds lose. Their magic number going into last night, or tragic number, was two.
00:01:53
Speaker 1: They lose.
00:01:54
Speaker 3: San Diego wins. Reds officially eliminated from contention. All of this occurring against the backdrop of The news reported by Nick Kroll himself that pretty much everybody's coming back. And so here with thoughts on that is our friend from the Locked on Reds podcast, our buddy, Jeff Carr.
00:02:12
Speaker 1: Hi, Jeff.
00:02:14
Speaker 4: Hey, Mo. Yeah, I don't know that I can give too much fault for Nick Kroll. I think if somebody were to ask me if I was going to stay in my job, I think I'd probably say yes, so. I think it's the crazy thing that he feels that comfortable after having talked to his bosses, the context of that that is so jarring.
00:02:33
Speaker 1: We're going to focus on that.
00:02:34
Speaker 3: If I would have said to you back in March that you and I would be talking with 12 games to go in the season about a team that has already been eliminated from postseason contention, what would you have said?
00:02:47
Speaker 4: I would have said that changes need to be made because it is inexcusable at this point in what I'm calling the Ellie era, his fourth season of major league baseball, that there are so many questions unanswered by this roster. We still don't know who is going to be the leadoff man moving forward. We still don't know who's going to play center field moving forward, let alone the other two corner outfield positions. And I know they've penciled in JJ Bladet to left field, but ever since June 1st, JJ Bladet has been pretty bad. So I think that there's a lot about this team that remains unanswered, and yet for some reason they seem completely okay with that.
00:03:27
Speaker 1: The message to me is not good enough is good enough.
00:03:30
Speaker 4: Is that how you take it? 100%. I mean, we took a deep dive in on this, and we've recorded a little bit later this afternoon, because sometimes when you talk to a guy who lives in Hawaii, times can get mixed up a little bit. But We talked about this from a holistic standpoint, the facts of the Nick Kroll era. The Reds are 457 and 503. They've lost almost 50 more games than they've won in his tenure. Since 2023, they've had the 24th most war as far as position players go. Their pitchers have been 17th in ERA. Defensive runs saved 28th. Outs above average 24th. There's not been an era of the team... that has been good. Everything is either bottom half or bottom of the league total. And so for me, I got to ask how on earth is the guy that made this, the guy that's going to bring them out of this, he's made so many bad moves. And yet we continue to see him get more and more chances because I think he is evaluated on a totally different system than what you and I would want him to be evaluated on. His bosses see profit and loss as opposed to wins and losses. And that is where the discrepancy lies, and that's why we are all so frustrated with this.
00:04:48
Speaker 1: What would you say.
00:04:49
Speaker 3: To someone who says, look, you're pointing the finger at the wrong person. Nick Kroll is merely working within the parameters that are set forth by ownership, and those parameters aren't conducive to anybody having success.
00:05:03
Speaker 4: I'd certainly acknowledge that, but then I'd ask them what they think about the Milwaukee Brewers, the Tampa Bay Rays, even the Cleveland Guardians. The Cleveland Guardians, I know, have not had the best of season, but they're still in contention for their division right now. And it looks like they've got a shot to overtake the Chicago White Sox, who have owned the AL Central for much of this season. And they have a payroll that is just about half as much as what the Cincinnati Reds have had. So it's not simply they don't spend enough money. It's that they don't spend their money well. They don't have organizational systems in place that can compete with the Brewers. I mean, when they play the Milwaukee Brewers this past couple of weeks in what felt like 24 games over the course of 10 days, it felt like I was watching a Mac team go up against Ohio State. And yet this is professional sports. That should not ever be the case.
00:05:57
Speaker 3: Is there a decision or a move that you believe represents Nick Kroll's biggest misstep?
00:06:05
Speaker 4: Key Brian Hayes. They owe him $ 29 million from today until the end of his contract. Whether they pay that to him now or they pay that to him in, I think it's four years. I think whenever the Pittsburgh Pirates sign that deal... they thought they were getting a guy like the Reds thought they were getting a guy, and both teams have been duped by this now, in that he just doesn't hit enough. You cannot be a glove-first third baseman. You can't do that in this day and age, especially when the Reds already had a guy who looked like he was a pretty good third baseman coming up through the system in Sal Stewart. If anybody were to be the defining move Of the Nick Kroll era, it's the key Brian Hayes move. When the Reds needed power, they needed hitting, they needed outfield help, he went and he got a glove-first third baseman. That costs far too much money. Even his buyout for his option year is still $ 6 million. And I think a lot of people would even say that's too much for what he has given the Reds, let alone the fact that he still owed three other years before that.
00:07:12
Speaker 3: How culpable do you find Terry Francona in this season in particular, in this season's failures?
00:07:20
Speaker 4: I think that Terry Francona has fallen into the David Bell grouping of managers, at least when it comes to the Cincinnati Reds, in that he is not the problem. He is also not the solution. Because I thought when he was coming in, he was going to be a manager that rises above an inefficient roster and, and takes that inefficient roster to the next level and helps them overachieve makes the, the whole better than the sum of its parts. But that's not what's happened. We've just continued to see the same team over and over and over again. If you were to have sat someone down in 2023, had them watch this team, then put them into a coma and wake them up this year. I think they would still think that David Bell is the manager. And that for me has been the biggest issue with Terry Francona. No, he's not the problem, but he's also not the solution.
00:08:14
Speaker 3: In terms of the team's construction, by the way, Jeff Carr locked on Reds podcast. I agree with you that like over the last few years, the teams have felt the same, but if you go back to the end of last year, we all said they've got to hit more home runs.
00:08:27
Speaker 1: The weird thing about this year is they've hit home runs. They don't do anything else offensively.
00:08:32
Speaker 3: And so like, Is it doable in one offseason to build the sort of team that offensively is capable of hitting the ball out of the ballpark, but also scoring using stolen bases, contact hitting, playing small ball, getting guys on base? I feel like sometimes it gets framed as either or. I felt like that was the case last year when they didn't hit home runs. I feel like it's the case this year when they do hit home runs.
00:09:01
Speaker 4: It should be, but even kind of grading the lineup on the Nick crawl scale, where we've constantly heard him say time and time again, he wants contact first guys that it line drives and take the ball to all fields. Ideally the opposite way during his tenure, at least over the Ellie era, they are top 10 in line drive percentage. but they're a bottom 10 in contact rate, bottom five in opposite field hitting rate. They don't do what he says. So if they don't do what he says, they don't have the identity that they're looking for, so they're constantly searching. And that's why you ended up with a guy like Eugenio Suarez, whose career has shown, yes, he's going to come in and hit home runs, but if you expect him to hit better than league average, then you're going to be disappointed. And I just don't think this team was ever built even– to what he said he wanted to build it like, much less what we know a good lineup looks like. And so that's why you're seeing all this inconsistency and the fact that it's such a high percentage of their runs are being scored on long balls. I think it's annoying to feel like you have to choose one or the other. You should be able to build a lineup that can do both, but it certainly has to have good quality of contact as much as it has just contact at all.
00:10:18
Speaker 1: Can they win within the Ellie window? Yes.
00:10:24
Speaker 4: Um, the issue is going to be, can they make the necessary moves over the next two off seasons? And now I'm almost looking at this as a two off season plan for them to do this because it feels like they need too much while they have some nice pieces in Ellie de la Cruz and Sal Stewart in the lineup. And they have some nice pieces in the pitching staff, like chase burns and well, hunter green in 2028. Um, I feel like there's still so much that they need to prove. And yet we know what's going to happen with this scene because they've done it every year in Nick crawl's tenure. And that is what is our shopping list? Cool. Erase like half that. And we're just not going to address half of that. And we're going to address the other half. And we don't really know if that's the most important half or not. So it feels like it's going to take two off seasons, and they're going to need to figure out what Milwaukee does to take guys like Jake Bowers and Andrew Vaughn, who never succeeded anywhere else, and they succeed here. Because they haven't done that yet. I haven't seen that with anybody that's really come in here and played. J.J. Bledet had a nice month, but we're not going to give him credit for May if the rest of the year is mediocre. They've got to figure out how to unlock these guys for 162 games.
00:11:40
Speaker 3: How shaky is what is supposed to be this team's foundation, the starting pitching, beyond Chase Burns?
00:11:48
Speaker 4: I don't like it, man.
00:11:49
Speaker 3: I don't.
00:11:51
Speaker 4: It kind of feels like Andrew Abbott is better than Rhett Lauder and Nick Lodolo, but Andrew Abbott also hasn't had the best end to his season either. So if you want to kind of fight me on that, I'm not going to fight super hard tooth and nail. Nick Lodolo has fallen from ace 1B into … Yeah, sure, he's going to pitch, but I'm not sure what you're getting from him because he's reinventing himself. He's reinventing the most important part of his game, and I don't know how successful that's going to be. His last start looked okay, but that's been the best of what's been a very unimpressive performance ever since he's come back from the most recent blister issue. And Rhett Lowder joins these three guys in Abbott and Singer. and that they are all three in the bottom ten of ERA for pitchers since August 1st. Like, they've all been really, really bad since the trade deadline, and I just don't know what we're going to get from him moving forward. The expectation when he was drafted is that he would be toward the top of the rotation by now, and he's anything but.
00:12:59
Speaker 3: Beyond Sal Stewart and Eli De La Cruz, positionally, guys who are on the team right now. And I'll add Spencer steer. Cause I think he has value beyond that. Do I want any of these guys back?
00:13:13
Speaker 4: I want to see more from Hector Rodriguez. I like his approach at the plate. I feel like he's an aggressive hitter that still manages to make a lot of contact. Um, it's hard for me to say that I'm going to figure out what I need to know about one Brito before the end of this season. So speculatively I'd like to see him back, but I'm not saying I know who he is. you're going to get JJ Bladet back because he's the best outfielder of the bunch. But I mean, that's like not really impressive. I think that ultimately this team needs to approach, I'd say two thirds of its positions in the lineup as open competition. And, and ideally you go and you improve that through trades and through signings and things like that. But I just don't, No, especially if the Reds are going to tie up a third of their budget into a man in Brady Singer who has had one of the worst ERAs in the second half of the season.
00:14:09
Speaker 3: I just I don't know how much room they're going to have to work. I like Brady Singer. I'm I'm good on on him not being here for whatever it is. Twenty two million dollars. Do you believe they will offer him the qualifying offer?
00:14:25
Speaker 1: Should they?
00:14:27
Speaker 4: That was an inclusion in Gordon Whitmire's article in the Inquirer, along with calling out people for not being at the ballgames. Which, by the way, I'm heading down there here in a few minutes. I don't know. I feel like they would just be silly to do so. Because that is them... exercising something that they feel like they have to do this. This feels like the reds are backed into a corner and they absolutely have to give him the qualifying offer or else they risk losing him. And they don't know that they can replace him. Now I'll tell you this. There's a lot of guys who I have seen who could be on the open market that have very similar performances this last year and would cost a whole lot less than 23 million. But I cannot believe that a team so financially strapped is okay. With just hamstringing its budget so much and a guy whose main admirable quality is his durability. And that's fantastic. But give me his second best quality. I can't name that. And that for me is where the 23 million hangup stands.
00:15:31
Speaker 3: How much does the labor uncertainty screw all this up?
00:15:37
Speaker 4: I think that the Reds are playing it safe and a little scared. by saying that they're going to keep their front office intact because of the labor uncertainty. I think that they don't want to go into a brand new version of baseball with a brand new version of the front office. And so they think, okay, if we do this the first time and it fails with our current regime, then we can just reset, but we know what we're looking for. As of right now, we don't know what we're looking for. And to which I would argue, you're looking for better. But I think that there's a lot about this that just screams continuity in the face of necessary creativity. Something we've seen them do time and time and time again. This trade deadline, last trade deadline, the trade deadline before that. Every time we think they need to get creative and make a change, they say, you know what? If we don't do anything, maybe that'll work. And that's where they are right now again.
00:16:39
Speaker 3: I guess I just don't understand how you don't comb through Milwaukee's organization, Tampa Bay's organization, Cleveland's organization, just those three.
00:16:49
Speaker 1: And there are, I'm sure there.
00:16:50
Speaker 3: Are others and, and try to find people who are working in, you know, lower level roles, but are a part of an organization that is doing what the red should be doing better and, and finding those folks and bring them here to elevate them. I don't understand why that's, why that's not what they're doing. And look, man, I, you know, Nick has had things that I've given him credit for, but, but the results aren't there. And to me, it's like, if, if ever it was crystallized, you know, that you should be looking at those organizations. It's the weekend where Milwaukee and Tampa Bay clinch playoff burst Milwaukee for the eighth time in nine years, uh, Tampa Bay, you know, the, the ultimate franchise at exploiting market inefficiencies. I just, I don't understand why you don't go, look, yeah, man, this is an opportunity for us to sort of reinvent ourselves, maybe as baseball reinvents itself. And yeah, man, that might mean for some hard times, but I think that's easier to swallow than, well, it's just continuity for the sake of continuity because there might be a bunch of change around us.
00:17:56
Speaker 1: Right.
00:17:57
Speaker 4: And I think it's interesting to note, too, didn't the Dodgers do that? The Dodgers went and got Andrew Friedman from Tampa Bay.
00:18:03
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:18:04
Speaker 4: Yes.
00:18:04
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:18:05
Speaker 4: And that dude is awesome. He knows how to run a ball club and run it well, albeit he has an unlimited budget, but still he does it well. And we see that unlimited budgets don't necessarily mean wins. If you look at the New York Mets, I think for me, Mo, if I really think about it, I still think they are scared of Kyle Bodie. Because Dick Williams brought in Kyle Bode to revolutionize the development department of this franchise. And he brought in a lot of new ideas that they weren't ready for. A lot of analytics and metrics that they had not embraced previously. And they saw themselves become a version of themselves that they didn't know. And it scared them. And they said, from now on, we are going with what we feel like is comfortable. As opposed to what could work. And so they're prioritizing this feeling of comfort now. as opposed to innovation that could transform them into something greater. Cause I thought they were going somewhere with Kyle Bodie. And then they said, well, let's, let's rein it back a bit. And honestly, I don't think they've stopped reining it back. I think they're still trying to work themselves back from where Dick Williams had started to take them.
00:19:16
Speaker 3: Yeah. That's a really good point. I just, I bring this up often. I've brought it up to you. Like, There's no organizational identity. I don't know what they're really good at. I could study the Tampa Bay Rays and not all that critically and tell you what they're good at. I could do the same with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds, is it development? Is it drafting beyond the top round? Is it turning over stones and finding you know hidden gems is it for lack of a better way of putting it winning trades like the answers are no across the board what are they good at and if you're running a baseball operations department and six years in it's hard for someone who follows the team closely to identify what you're good at I don't know that there's an argument that the status quo should be maintained.
00:20:13
Speaker 4: No, because I can't tell you what that is either. As much as I errantly and a bit early proclaim that they were starting to become a pitching factory last season. That's been wrong because name a pitcher who's come up this season that you're excited about. I think there's a little bit of Luis May in there, but.
00:20:34
Speaker 1: Also I like Luis May. Yeah.
00:20:36
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:20:36
Speaker 1: I like Luis.
00:20:37
Speaker 4: I think, I think that, his ERA is totally not indicative of who he is. He's got some other stats that point to him being much better, but outside of that, like you're not really that enthused about a lot of guys. And so I, I, I feel as though there were some things that I saw forward progress and that somehow halted. And that just takes me back to the idea that it's, it's possible they are still tinkering with their development process. And while they aren't, moving forward. They're also just not doing what we want them to do in that. They're not copying Milwaukee. They're not copying Tampa Bay. They're not taking from the best of this league and making it their own. They're trying to do their own thing. And that's just, it's just never worked for them. As ironically as I'm wearing this October t-shirts from last season, because we're about to go watch the Dodgers and the reds.
00:21:31
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, Well, you might see the Dodgers clinch. It's so frustrating to me. Yeah, it's so frustrating to me that we're doing this in September. And I know we didn't do it last year, but this is frustratingly the norm, man. And I'm stoked that the Bengals have started and football's here and all that stuff. But in an ideal world as a Cincinnati sports fan, the local baseball team at least matters in mid-September. And they haven't mattered like early July. And I can't say that I was surprised to see this weekend's news, but it's still sobering and it's frustrating. I know you've got to get ready to go to the ballpark. I can't thank you enough. We'll talk soon, man.
00:22:16
Speaker 1: Thanks so much.
00:22:18
Speaker 4: Thanks, Mo. Go Reds.
00:22:20
Speaker 3: Locked on Reds podcast, Jeff Carr. We are way late, 27 after 5 o'clock. We're at Mercantile Immersive on ESPN 1530 Cincinnati Sports Station. Cincinnati's ESPN 1530.
00:22:33
Speaker 4: Traffic from the UC
Speaker 1: Bengals!
00:00:01
Speaker 2: The Bengals travel to Texas to take on Houston in a Lone Star Showdown. Which raises an important question. What style of chili do I prefer? Hmm, I'm not sure, but they both make me gassy. Can the orange and black handle Houston? Or will the Texans defend their home turf? Coverage begins Sunday morning at 9 a.m. Stream for free on the new and improved iHeartRadio app. or on ESPN 1530, the official home of the Cincinnati Bengals. It's the Bengals and Texans.
00:00:36
Speaker 3: Sure is. 505-ESPN-1530. Mo Egger, thank you for listening. Hope you're having an awesome Tuesday afternoon.
00:00:43
Speaker 1: We want to thank the.
00:00:43
Speaker 3: Folks at Delightmore for hosting us here at the Mercantile Immersive, an awesome venue here, downtown Cincinnati. The folks at Delightmore, over 70 years of combined knowledge in the catering and hospitality business. They serve weddings, corporate and social events all year long. This venue here, the Mercantile Immersive, On 4th Street downtown, awesome for any kind of party, any kind of an event. Bengals watch party with Cincinnati taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers a week from Sunday. They'll have food stations. They'll have a full bar. It is going to be absolutely awesome. You can learn more at mercantileimmersive.com. We have obviously been pretty heavy on the Bengals, and for good reason, Paul Daner Jr. in the first hour of this show. If you missed it, we'll podcast it on the iHeartRadio app.
00:01:33
Speaker 1: We will kind.
00:01:34
Speaker 3: Of put a bow on the Reds' season because they played their last meaningful game last night, and it was sort of the season, and maybe this franchise in a nutshell, where Eli De La Cruz does something awesome, hits the ball halfway to Tennessee, but the Reds lose. Their magic number going into last night, or tragic number, was two.
00:01:53
Speaker 1: They lose.
00:01:54
Speaker 3: San Diego wins. Reds officially eliminated from contention. All of this occurring against the backdrop of The news reported by Nick Kroll himself that pretty much everybody's coming back. And so here with thoughts on that is our friend from the Locked on Reds podcast, our buddy, Jeff Carr.
00:02:12
Speaker 1: Hi, Jeff.
00:02:14
Speaker 4: Hey, Mo. Yeah, I don't know that I can give too much fault for Nick Kroll. I think if somebody were to ask me if I was going to stay in my job, I think I'd probably say yes, so. I think it's the crazy thing that he feels that comfortable after having talked to his bosses, the context of that that is so jarring.
00:02:33
Speaker 1: We're going to focus on that.
00:02:34
Speaker 3: If I would have said to you back in March that you and I would be talking with 12 games to go in the season about a team that has already been eliminated from postseason contention, what would you have said?
00:02:47
Speaker 4: I would have said that changes need to be made because it is inexcusable at this point in what I'm calling the Ellie era, his fourth season of major league baseball, that there are so many questions unanswered by this roster. We still don't know who is going to be the leadoff man moving forward. We still don't know who's going to play center field moving forward, let alone the other two corner outfield positions. And I know they've penciled in JJ Bladet to left field, but ever since June 1st, JJ Bladet has been pretty bad. So I think that there's a lot about this team that remains unanswered, and yet for some reason they seem completely okay with that.
00:03:27
Speaker 1: The message to me is not good enough is good enough.
00:03:30
Speaker 4: Is that how you take it? 100%. I mean, we took a deep dive in on this, and we've recorded a little bit later this afternoon, because sometimes when you talk to a guy who lives in Hawaii, times can get mixed up a little bit. But We talked about this from a holistic standpoint, the facts of the Nick Kroll era. The Reds are 457 and 503. They've lost almost 50 more games than they've won in his tenure. Since 2023, they've had the 24th most war as far as position players go. Their pitchers have been 17th in ERA. Defensive runs saved 28th. Outs above average 24th. There's not been an era of the team... that has been good. Everything is either bottom half or bottom of the league total. And so for me, I got to ask how on earth is the guy that made this, the guy that's going to bring them out of this, he's made so many bad moves. And yet we continue to see him get more and more chances because I think he is evaluated on a totally different system than what you and I would want him to be evaluated on. His bosses see profit and loss as opposed to wins and losses. And that is where the discrepancy lies, and that's why we are all so frustrated with this.
00:04:48
Speaker 1: What would you say.
00:04:49
Speaker 3: To someone who says, look, you're pointing the finger at the wrong person. Nick Kroll is merely working within the parameters that are set forth by ownership, and those parameters aren't conducive to anybody having success.
00:05:03
Speaker 4: I'd certainly acknowledge that, but then I'd ask them what they think about the Milwaukee Brewers, the Tampa Bay Rays, even the Cleveland Guardians. The Cleveland Guardians, I know, have not had the best of season, but they're still in contention for their division right now. And it looks like they've got a shot to overtake the Chicago White Sox, who have owned the AL Central for much of this season. And they have a payroll that is just about half as much as what the Cincinnati Reds have had. So it's not simply they don't spend enough money. It's that they don't spend their money well. They don't have organizational systems in place that can compete with the Brewers. I mean, when they play the Milwaukee Brewers this past couple of weeks in what felt like 24 games over the course of 10 days, it felt like I was watching a Mac team go up against Ohio State. And yet this is professional sports. That should not ever be the case.
00:05:57
Speaker 3: Is there a decision or a move that you believe represents Nick Kroll's biggest misstep?
00:06:05
Speaker 4: Key Brian Hayes. They owe him $ 29 million from today until the end of his contract. Whether they pay that to him now or they pay that to him in, I think it's four years. I think whenever the Pittsburgh Pirates sign that deal... they thought they were getting a guy like the Reds thought they were getting a guy, and both teams have been duped by this now, in that he just doesn't hit enough. You cannot be a glove-first third baseman. You can't do that in this day and age, especially when the Reds already had a guy who looked like he was a pretty good third baseman coming up through the system in Sal Stewart. If anybody were to be the defining move Of the Nick Kroll era, it's the key Brian Hayes move. When the Reds needed power, they needed hitting, they needed outfield help, he went and he got a glove-first third baseman. That costs far too much money. Even his buyout for his option year is still $ 6 million. And I think a lot of people would even say that's too much for what he has given the Reds, let alone the fact that he still owed three other years before that.
00:07:12
Speaker 3: How culpable do you find Terry Francona in this season in particular, in this season's failures?
00:07:20
Speaker 4: I think that Terry Francona has fallen into the David Bell grouping of managers, at least when it comes to the Cincinnati Reds, in that he is not the problem. He is also not the solution. Because I thought when he was coming in, he was going to be a manager that rises above an inefficient roster and, and takes that inefficient roster to the next level and helps them overachieve makes the, the whole better than the sum of its parts. But that's not what's happened. We've just continued to see the same team over and over and over again. If you were to have sat someone down in 2023, had them watch this team, then put them into a coma and wake them up this year. I think they would still think that David Bell is the manager. And that for me has been the biggest issue with Terry Francona. No, he's not the problem, but he's also not the solution.
00:08:14
Speaker 3: In terms of the team's construction, by the way, Jeff Carr locked on Reds podcast. I agree with you that like over the last few years, the teams have felt the same, but if you go back to the end of last year, we all said they've got to hit more home runs.
00:08:27
Speaker 1: The weird thing about this year is they've hit home runs. They don't do anything else offensively.
00:08:32
Speaker 3: And so like, Is it doable in one offseason to build the sort of team that offensively is capable of hitting the ball out of the ballpark, but also scoring using stolen bases, contact hitting, playing small ball, getting guys on base? I feel like sometimes it gets framed as either or. I felt like that was the case last year when they didn't hit home runs. I feel like it's the case this year when they do hit home runs.
00:09:01
Speaker 4: It should be, but even kind of grading the lineup on the Nick crawl scale, where we've constantly heard him say time and time again, he wants contact first guys that it line drives and take the ball to all fields. Ideally the opposite way during his tenure, at least over the Ellie era, they are top 10 in line drive percentage. but they're a bottom 10 in contact rate, bottom five in opposite field hitting rate. They don't do what he says. So if they don't do what he says, they don't have the identity that they're looking for, so they're constantly searching. And that's why you ended up with a guy like Eugenio Suarez, whose career has shown, yes, he's going to come in and hit home runs, but if you expect him to hit better than league average, then you're going to be disappointed. And I just don't think this team was ever built even– to what he said he wanted to build it like, much less what we know a good lineup looks like. And so that's why you're seeing all this inconsistency and the fact that it's such a high percentage of their runs are being scored on long balls. I think it's annoying to feel like you have to choose one or the other. You should be able to build a lineup that can do both, but it certainly has to have good quality of contact as much as it has just contact at all.
00:10:18
Speaker 1: Can they win within the Ellie window? Yes.
00:10:24
Speaker 4: Um, the issue is going to be, can they make the necessary moves over the next two off seasons? And now I'm almost looking at this as a two off season plan for them to do this because it feels like they need too much while they have some nice pieces in Ellie de la Cruz and Sal Stewart in the lineup. And they have some nice pieces in the pitching staff, like chase burns and well, hunter green in 2028. Um, I feel like there's still so much that they need to prove. And yet we know what's going to happen with this scene because they've done it every year in Nick crawl's tenure. And that is what is our shopping list? Cool. Erase like half that. And we're just not going to address half of that. And we're going to address the other half. And we don't really know if that's the most important half or not. So it feels like it's going to take two off seasons, and they're going to need to figure out what Milwaukee does to take guys like Jake Bowers and Andrew Vaughn, who never succeeded anywhere else, and they succeed here. Because they haven't done that yet. I haven't seen that with anybody that's really come in here and played. J.J. Bledet had a nice month, but we're not going to give him credit for May if the rest of the year is mediocre. They've got to figure out how to unlock these guys for 162 games.
00:11:40
Speaker 3: How shaky is what is supposed to be this team's foundation, the starting pitching, beyond Chase Burns?
00:11:48
Speaker 4: I don't like it, man.
00:11:49
Speaker 3: I don't.
00:11:51
Speaker 4: It kind of feels like Andrew Abbott is better than Rhett Lauder and Nick Lodolo, but Andrew Abbott also hasn't had the best end to his season either. So if you want to kind of fight me on that, I'm not going to fight super hard tooth and nail. Nick Lodolo has fallen from ace 1B into … Yeah, sure, he's going to pitch, but I'm not sure what you're getting from him because he's reinventing himself. He's reinventing the most important part of his game, and I don't know how successful that's going to be. His last start looked okay, but that's been the best of what's been a very unimpressive performance ever since he's come back from the most recent blister issue. And Rhett Lowder joins these three guys in Abbott and Singer. and that they are all three in the bottom ten of ERA for pitchers since August 1st. Like, they've all been really, really bad since the trade deadline, and I just don't know what we're going to get from him moving forward. The expectation when he was drafted is that he would be toward the top of the rotation by now, and he's anything but.
00:12:59
Speaker 3: Beyond Sal Stewart and Eli De La Cruz, positionally, guys who are on the team right now. And I'll add Spencer steer. Cause I think he has value beyond that. Do I want any of these guys back?
00:13:13
Speaker 4: I want to see more from Hector Rodriguez. I like his approach at the plate. I feel like he's an aggressive hitter that still manages to make a lot of contact. Um, it's hard for me to say that I'm going to figure out what I need to know about one Brito before the end of this season. So speculatively I'd like to see him back, but I'm not saying I know who he is. you're going to get JJ Bladet back because he's the best outfielder of the bunch. But I mean, that's like not really impressive. I think that ultimately this team needs to approach, I'd say two thirds of its positions in the lineup as open competition. And, and ideally you go and you improve that through trades and through signings and things like that. But I just don't, No, especially if the Reds are going to tie up a third of their budget into a man in Brady Singer who has had one of the worst ERAs in the second half of the season.
00:14:09
Speaker 3: I just I don't know how much room they're going to have to work. I like Brady Singer. I'm I'm good on on him not being here for whatever it is. Twenty two million dollars. Do you believe they will offer him the qualifying offer?
00:14:25
Speaker 1: Should they?
00:14:27
Speaker 4: That was an inclusion in Gordon Whitmire's article in the Inquirer, along with calling out people for not being at the ballgames. Which, by the way, I'm heading down there here in a few minutes. I don't know. I feel like they would just be silly to do so. Because that is them... exercising something that they feel like they have to do this. This feels like the reds are backed into a corner and they absolutely have to give him the qualifying offer or else they risk losing him. And they don't know that they can replace him. Now I'll tell you this. There's a lot of guys who I have seen who could be on the open market that have very similar performances this last year and would cost a whole lot less than 23 million. But I cannot believe that a team so financially strapped is okay. With just hamstringing its budget so much and a guy whose main admirable quality is his durability. And that's fantastic. But give me his second best quality. I can't name that. And that for me is where the 23 million hangup stands.
00:15:31
Speaker 3: How much does the labor uncertainty screw all this up?
00:15:37
Speaker 4: I think that the Reds are playing it safe and a little scared. by saying that they're going to keep their front office intact because of the labor uncertainty. I think that they don't want to go into a brand new version of baseball with a brand new version of the front office. And so they think, okay, if we do this the first time and it fails with our current regime, then we can just reset, but we know what we're looking for. As of right now, we don't know what we're looking for. And to which I would argue, you're looking for better. But I think that there's a lot about this that just screams continuity in the face of necessary creativity. Something we've seen them do time and time and time again. This trade deadline, last trade deadline, the trade deadline before that. Every time we think they need to get creative and make a change, they say, you know what? If we don't do anything, maybe that'll work. And that's where they are right now again.
00:16:39
Speaker 3: I guess I just don't understand how you don't comb through Milwaukee's organization, Tampa Bay's organization, Cleveland's organization, just those three.
00:16:49
Speaker 1: And there are, I'm sure there.
00:16:50
Speaker 3: Are others and, and try to find people who are working in, you know, lower level roles, but are a part of an organization that is doing what the red should be doing better and, and finding those folks and bring them here to elevate them. I don't understand why that's, why that's not what they're doing. And look, man, I, you know, Nick has had things that I've given him credit for, but, but the results aren't there. And to me, it's like, if, if ever it was crystallized, you know, that you should be looking at those organizations. It's the weekend where Milwaukee and Tampa Bay clinch playoff burst Milwaukee for the eighth time in nine years, uh, Tampa Bay, you know, the, the ultimate franchise at exploiting market inefficiencies. I just, I don't understand why you don't go, look, yeah, man, this is an opportunity for us to sort of reinvent ourselves, maybe as baseball reinvents itself. And yeah, man, that might mean for some hard times, but I think that's easier to swallow than, well, it's just continuity for the sake of continuity because there might be a bunch of change around us.
00:17:56
Speaker 1: Right.
00:17:57
Speaker 4: And I think it's interesting to note, too, didn't the Dodgers do that? The Dodgers went and got Andrew Friedman from Tampa Bay.
00:18:03
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:18:04
Speaker 4: Yes.
00:18:04
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:18:05
Speaker 4: And that dude is awesome. He knows how to run a ball club and run it well, albeit he has an unlimited budget, but still he does it well. And we see that unlimited budgets don't necessarily mean wins. If you look at the New York Mets, I think for me, Mo, if I really think about it, I still think they are scared of Kyle Bodie. Because Dick Williams brought in Kyle Bode to revolutionize the development department of this franchise. And he brought in a lot of new ideas that they weren't ready for. A lot of analytics and metrics that they had not embraced previously. And they saw themselves become a version of themselves that they didn't know. And it scared them. And they said, from now on, we are going with what we feel like is comfortable. As opposed to what could work. And so they're prioritizing this feeling of comfort now. as opposed to innovation that could transform them into something greater. Cause I thought they were going somewhere with Kyle Bodie. And then they said, well, let's, let's rein it back a bit. And honestly, I don't think they've stopped reining it back. I think they're still trying to work themselves back from where Dick Williams had started to take them.
00:19:16
Speaker 3: Yeah. That's a really good point. I just, I bring this up often. I've brought it up to you. Like, There's no organizational identity. I don't know what they're really good at. I could study the Tampa Bay Rays and not all that critically and tell you what they're good at. I could do the same with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds, is it development? Is it drafting beyond the top round? Is it turning over stones and finding you know hidden gems is it for lack of a better way of putting it winning trades like the answers are no across the board what are they good at and if you're running a baseball operations department and six years in it's hard for someone who follows the team closely to identify what you're good at I don't know that there's an argument that the status quo should be maintained.
00:20:13
Speaker 4: No, because I can't tell you what that is either. As much as I errantly and a bit early proclaim that they were starting to become a pitching factory last season. That's been wrong because name a pitcher who's come up this season that you're excited about. I think there's a little bit of Luis May in there, but.
00:20:34
Speaker 1: Also I like Luis May. Yeah.
00:20:36
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:20:36
Speaker 1: I like Luis.
00:20:37
Speaker 4: I think, I think that, his ERA is totally not indicative of who he is. He's got some other stats that point to him being much better, but outside of that, like you're not really that enthused about a lot of guys. And so I, I, I feel as though there were some things that I saw forward progress and that somehow halted. And that just takes me back to the idea that it's, it's possible they are still tinkering with their development process. And while they aren't, moving forward. They're also just not doing what we want them to do in that. They're not copying Milwaukee. They're not copying Tampa Bay. They're not taking from the best of this league and making it their own. They're trying to do their own thing. And that's just, it's just never worked for them. As ironically as I'm wearing this October t-shirts from last season, because we're about to go watch the Dodgers and the reds.
00:21:31
Speaker 3: Like, yeah, Well, you might see the Dodgers clinch. It's so frustrating to me. Yeah, it's so frustrating to me that we're doing this in September. And I know we didn't do it last year, but this is frustratingly the norm, man. And I'm stoked that the Bengals have started and football's here and all that stuff. But in an ideal world as a Cincinnati sports fan, the local baseball team at least matters in mid-September. And they haven't mattered like early July. And I can't say that I was surprised to see this weekend's news, but it's still sobering and it's frustrating. I know you've got to get ready to go to the ballpark. I can't thank you enough. We'll talk soon, man.
00:22:16
Speaker 1: Thanks so much.
00:22:18
Speaker 4: Thanks, Mo. Go Reds.
00:22:20
Speaker 3: Locked on Reds podcast, Jeff Carr. We are way late, 27 after 5 o'clock. We're at Mercantile Immersive on ESPN 1530 Cincinnati Sports Station. Cincinnati's ESPN 1530.
00:22:33
Speaker 4: Traffic from the UC
