Week 3 DFS Player Pool Breakdown

WEBVTT
00:00:00.320 --> 00:00:02.000
What is up, maniacs?
00:00:02.080 --> 00:00:02.959
My name is Zach.
00:00:03.040 --> 00:00:04.879
I am the Millie Maker Maniac.
00:00:05.040 --> 00:00:08.480
Welcome to another episode of the Millie Maker Maniac Podcast.
00:00:08.640 --> 00:00:13.119
Today we are doing our week three player pool video.
00:00:13.279 --> 00:00:15.279
This is our most important video of the week.
00:00:15.359 --> 00:00:18.800
This is where we decide who is actually going to be in our lineups.
00:00:18.960 --> 00:00:24.399
We narrow our pool down and we're making those hard decisions on who's actually going to be in our lineup.
00:00:24.559 --> 00:00:26.640
I got a really good feeling this week, Maniacs.
00:00:26.719 --> 00:00:28.559
I am confident this is the week.
00:00:28.640 --> 00:00:30.079
We get the player pool right.
00:00:30.239 --> 00:00:37.039
We put it in the optimizer and we push out some big-time winning lineups that are going to take down some big wins.
00:00:37.280 --> 00:00:50.159
If you've tuned into previous weeks, you know that the key to success in DFS is to watch this video and then take the two or three guys at each position that I take out last and put those guys in your player pool because they're going to score a lot of points.
00:00:50.320 --> 00:00:53.119
That tends to be the trend around these parts.
00:00:53.200 --> 00:01:04.959
But I'm going to walk you through my decision-making process at each position today, and hopefully that helps you get your player pool right, and we can have more maniacs taking down big wins this weekend.
00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:07.599
All right, let's jump into it with quarterback.
00:01:07.760 --> 00:01:09.599
I've got the guys that I've narrowed it down to.
00:01:09.760 --> 00:01:14.719
We currently have 14 guys in the pool that we need to narrow it down from.
00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:19.599
So at the top, we got Josh Allen facing the Chargers.
00:01:20.879 --> 00:01:26.400
I think, I mean, we've seen Josh Allen week in, week out, uh, be incredible so far this season.
00:01:26.640 --> 00:01:34.959
In the past, we've needed teams to push them for him to have those like huge nuke weeks that he he's capable of having.
00:01:35.040 --> 00:01:36.959
He's got a career high of 55.
00:01:37.439 --> 00:01:41.920
Um, so in the past, we've needed the off the other offense to push them.
00:01:42.079 --> 00:01:44.959
I think this year might be a little different under Joe Brady.
00:01:45.040 --> 00:01:55.280
And I think week in and week out, he's a threat to have big weeks and that they're going to put up a lot of points regardless of what the opponent does, with Joe Brady just being more offensive minded.
00:01:56.400 --> 00:01:59.040
That's what I think is most likely to occur.
00:01:59.200 --> 00:02:03.519
So week in and week out, even at his AK price, he's going to be in my lineup.
00:02:03.680 --> 00:02:08.639
But he's going to be a guy that I'll probably build five to eight percent of lineups with.
00:02:08.719 --> 00:02:19.199
He's not a guy that I'm going to really lean into heavily, just because he needs to have a huge week and a bigger week than anybody else at his price.
00:02:19.439 --> 00:02:28.000
So if he scores 35, but somebody else like Brock Purdy scores 35, Brock Purdy was the better pick because he's$1,500 cheaper.
00:02:28.159 --> 00:02:38.000
So I'm going to mix in Josh Allen every week, regardless of the matchup, more than likely, just because he has that capability of going and getting like 50.
00:02:38.719 --> 00:02:43.520
But I'm not going to be making him a core play this week, but he will be in the player pool.
00:02:43.759 --> 00:02:46.240
Next on the list, we got Lamar Jackson.
00:02:46.400 --> 00:02:54.000
Early in the week, I thought he was going to be a core play, but as the week has played out, it does look like Zay is not going to play.
00:02:54.159 --> 00:02:57.680
Plus, there's the field condition issues in Brazil.
00:02:58.960 --> 00:03:11.199
I just think it's likely that he has a good game against his really bad Dallas defense, but is unlikely to hit a true ceiling game, which is what we really need to win these tournaments.
00:03:11.280 --> 00:03:23.280
And at 7,500, being the second highest price quarterback on this slate, I'm actually going to take him out of my player pool because I think sealing is a little capped this week without having his weapons.
00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:26.800
He's just basically got Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews.
00:03:26.960 --> 00:03:33.360
I think they're going to rely pretty heavily on Derrick Henry, and I think that's probably going to be pretty successful this week against Dallas.
00:03:33.599 --> 00:03:45.680
Um and because of that, I just think he could have, I think a lot of outcomes he's probably getting 20 to 28 points, which sounds solid, but that's not good enough for us to win a tournament.
00:03:45.840 --> 00:03:52.719
I think it's unlikely that he's going to hit that 35 to 40 that we're really looking for at that price of 7,500.
00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:58.879
And we can also get pieces of Lamar through Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews much cheaper as well.
00:03:59.039 --> 00:04:03.680
So because of that, I am going to take Lamar Jackson out of my player pool.
00:04:03.919 --> 00:04:07.280
On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott has all of his weapons.
00:04:07.439 --> 00:04:12.240
Baltimore is a pretty decent defense, but this passing offense is just really good.
00:04:12.400 --> 00:04:16.639
I think there's going to be a lot of points scored in this game because their defense is rough.
00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:35.040
And I think Dak is a guy at$800 cheaper that is likely to hit that ceiling because he's got all of his weapons around him and he's um really stacks up nicely with the core guys of Lamb and Pickens, and then we can add Ferguson and Florinoy in there too with the smart stacks and the optimizer as well.
00:04:35.199 --> 00:04:37.680
So Dak is going to be a core play for me.
00:04:37.839 --> 00:04:41.839
That game is at 53 and a half now, so there's still plenty of shootout potential.
00:04:42.000 --> 00:04:45.759
I just think if a quarterback's going to come out of that game, it's likely to be Dak.
00:04:46.160 --> 00:04:53.600
And I think there's going to be plenty of other usable players that come out of that game, even if it doesn't hit the over, it's just a matter of which ones those are.
00:04:53.759 --> 00:05:02.800
But Dak is the quarterback I want to make the bet on this week, both from a price standpoint and from what I think his ceiling is, just because he has all of his weapons around him.
00:05:03.279 --> 00:05:05.439
The next guy on our list is Joe Burrow.
00:05:05.680 --> 00:05:07.920
Joe Burrow's playing Pittsburgh this week.
00:05:08.240 --> 00:05:14.480
And because of that, that's really why I am going to be out on Burroughs because of the game environment with Pittsburgh.
00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:16.560
I think Cincinnati's defense is better.
00:05:16.720 --> 00:05:21.120
I think that Pittsburgh's offense is in trouble.
00:05:21.279 --> 00:05:25.920
Um, we'll see if Aaron Rodgers gets a little bit more pull on what the play calling is going to be like.
00:05:26.079 --> 00:05:32.079
He seems pretty upset with the what they're trying to do right now, and rightfully so.
00:05:32.639 --> 00:05:37.920
But I just think that they don't have the talent around him that they need to really do much.
00:05:38.079 --> 00:05:39.920
I think this game is probably going to be ugly.
00:05:40.160 --> 00:05:44.240
Jalen Warren on the other side is the only guy that um I have any interest in.
00:05:44.319 --> 00:05:54.079
But I think this game is likely to be more of like a 24 to 20 type game environment, and maybe even less than that on the Pittsburgh side.
00:05:55.199 --> 00:06:04.480
And I think that the Bengals are trying to learn to win games with more of the run game, and they're trying to do more under center.
00:06:04.560 --> 00:06:08.800
I think that they're trying to get it to where they can close games out being under center.
00:06:08.959 --> 00:06:20.959
I don't know that that's what they'll do as the season plays on, but I think that's what they're trying to establish that they can do and to set up some other stuff later on in the season, as well as in in-game with play action and things along those lines.
00:06:21.120 --> 00:06:25.120
But I think they're gonna try to lean into that and slow the game down in the fourth quarter with the lead.
00:06:25.439 --> 00:06:32.079
Because of that, I just don't think that it's gonna be a game that pushes enough for Joe Burrow to hit that 35-type ceiling.
00:06:32.560 --> 00:06:34.720
And that's what we're looking for in these environments.
00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:39.759
I think there's guys that we're gonna talk about coming up that are better fits for that.
00:06:39.839 --> 00:06:43.600
So because of that, I'm taking Joe Burrow out of the player pool.
00:06:45.120 --> 00:06:46.720
Next up is Brock Purdy.
00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:51.360
Brock Purdy is in a really great, good game environment this week against Arizona.
00:06:51.519 --> 00:06:55.439
This is our number three game as far as shootout scores go.
00:06:56.319 --> 00:06:59.279
And Purdy's playing lights out so far this year.
00:06:59.439 --> 00:07:01.199
Arizona's also banged up in the secondary.
00:07:01.279 --> 00:07:05.759
They've got two corners out in Crawford and Johnson that are out for this game.
00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:08.800
We are a little light on the receiving core.
00:07:08.879 --> 00:07:17.600
Mike Evans is looking like he's gonna play, but uh they're missing DeMarcus Robinson, and obviously Stribling was out after week one as well.
00:07:17.759 --> 00:07:19.360
But Purdy's playing lights out.
00:07:19.439 --> 00:07:21.120
This is a defense that can't stop anybody.
00:07:21.279 --> 00:07:23.199
We saw what they did last week against Miami.
00:07:23.279 --> 00:07:25.120
They didn't show any signs of slowing down.
00:07:25.279 --> 00:07:26.879
Purdy's gonna be a core play.
00:07:26.959 --> 00:07:36.000
I don't think, uh I think this is actually the best game environment they've had so far because Arizona is gonna push a lot more than what Miami did last week.
00:07:36.079 --> 00:07:44.720
If they get behind, they're gonna pass the ball and they've got better weapons than McBride and Wilson and Jeremiah Love on the other side.
00:07:44.879 --> 00:07:46.800
So this game, I think, really could get going.
00:07:46.879 --> 00:07:54.160
And Brock Purdy, I think, would be the one that has the highest likelihood of being QB1 if that plays out in the shootout environment that it can.
00:07:54.240 --> 00:07:55.360
So he's gonna be a core play.
00:07:55.439 --> 00:07:59.360
Him and Dak are my two core plays at quarterback this week.
00:08:00.399 --> 00:08:05.600
So moving on, we're the next guy up is Jared Goff at 6,300.
00:08:06.639 --> 00:08:09.120
I'm really on the edge on this one.
00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:10.399
They're at home.
00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:16.800
The Lions have their offensive line hasn't played great, but obviously Jared Goff has incredible weapons around him.
00:08:16.959 --> 00:08:20.319
If he goes off, you know that the stacking partners are easy to find.
00:08:20.399 --> 00:08:22.240
It's Jameer Gibbs, Amon Ross St.
00:08:22.399 --> 00:08:24.639
Brown, Jamison Williams, and Sam Laporta.
00:08:24.720 --> 00:08:26.319
You don't have to go anywhere outside of that.
00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:28.720
That is where all the volume is going.
00:08:30.720 --> 00:08:36.559
And he he can win in weeks where like 30 to 35 is the winning score.
00:08:36.639 --> 00:08:40.799
And obviously, last week we saw that um that was basically what it was.
00:08:42.320 --> 00:08:52.000
So I think against the Jets, there's a decent chance that this game gets going a little bit back and forth just because this Detroit defense is really bad.
00:08:52.080 --> 00:08:53.840
I think Gino is a good option.
00:08:53.919 --> 00:08:55.919
We'll talk about him later on.
00:08:56.080 --> 00:09:03.679
But this is a game, this game and the Arizona game are my two favorite um sneakier games to go off.
00:09:03.919 --> 00:09:06.000
So I'm gonna play a little bit of golf.
00:09:06.080 --> 00:09:08.480
I'm gonna do roughly five to eight percent of golf.
00:09:08.559 --> 00:09:12.799
He's not gonna be a core play, but I like this game environment enough.
00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:22.960
And with golf, you know, obviously if he has the type of game that we need, and that's how when we're playing this, we're playing it as if he is QB one.
00:09:23.200 --> 00:09:26.000
If he's in our lineups, that's how the optimizer is treating it as well.
00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:28.960
If he's in our lineup, it's treating him as if he's QB1.
00:09:29.279 --> 00:09:31.279
What does it look like when that happens?
00:09:31.440 --> 00:09:33.679
And, you know, that brings along Amara St.
00:09:33.919 --> 00:09:38.399
Brown, Gibbs, Jameson Williams, and Laporta along with him.
00:09:38.559 --> 00:09:45.120
And I want to lean into some environments where they absolutely dominate or that's a back and forth game because their defense is so bad.
00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:48.639
So we will play some golf in that 5-8% range.
00:09:48.799 --> 00:09:50.799
He just doesn't have the super high ceiling.
00:09:50.879 --> 00:09:58.559
We've seen 44 in his career, but where we have his ceiling at 33 is the more likely outcome, I think, if he hits ceiling.
00:09:58.799 --> 00:10:04.720
So solid play, but we would need kind of a unique slate for him to be a great play.
00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:06.720
So I end up, I might end up taking him out.
00:10:06.799 --> 00:10:08.000
He's right on the edge for me.
00:10:08.159 --> 00:10:18.480
I do think this is a week where somebody like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, or Brock Purdy, or even Patrick Mahomes puts up like a 40-plus spot, and there is a guy that you have to have.
00:10:19.200 --> 00:10:26.399
So the more I think through it, I do think I'm actually just going to take Goff out and then lead in, lean into his weapons as part of my player pool.
00:10:27.039 --> 00:10:29.440
Next guy, though, is Patrick Mahomes.
00:10:30.399 --> 00:10:31.840
They're playing Miami this week.
00:10:31.919 --> 00:10:33.440
It's an elite matchup for them.
00:10:33.679 --> 00:10:43.120
Really, the only question is like, does this game environment go hard enough for it to be worthwhile enough for Mahomes to score enough points?
00:10:43.279 --> 00:10:46.159
Like, there's a decent chance he only plays three quarters.
00:10:46.480 --> 00:10:48.559
That really kind of limits the upside.
00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:54.159
But at 6,200, he could put up 30 or 35 points, honestly, in three quarters.
00:10:55.279 --> 00:11:03.519
And I think too, with the run game when Kenneth Kenneth Walker and a really young defense with a lot of um, they've got injuries at safety as well.
00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:05.679
Kyle Lewis is out on IR.
00:11:06.240 --> 00:11:17.919
So I could see scenarios where this young defense, they're doing everything they can to set up Kenneth Walker, which they're struggling to do, which sets up some play action, which sets up some big plays.
00:11:18.080 --> 00:11:21.360
And we got guys like Xavier Worthy and Taquon Thornton that are really cheap.
00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:29.200
And then, you know, obviously Kenneth Walker and Travis Kelsey have really been his go-to guys the last couple weeks.
00:11:29.360 --> 00:11:31.519
And then Rasheed Rice, we can mix in as well.
00:11:31.600 --> 00:11:35.759
I do think he's a little overpriced, but in the stacks with Mahomes, it's solid value.
00:11:35.919 --> 00:11:46.399
So we're gonna lean into Mahomes and this offense just going crazy in the first three quarters, and maybe Miami pushes back a little bit, but we're probably playing this one more as a blowout type game.
00:11:46.559 --> 00:11:49.840
But Mahomes at 6,200 with an elite matchup, too cheap.
00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:53.519
He definitely could get to a 40 spot depending on how they play that game.
00:11:53.840 --> 00:11:58.240
Next up, we have Drake May, and they're playing Jacksonville coming into the year.
00:11:58.399 --> 00:12:03.360
That would have really seemed like a great spot for a shootout.
00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:10.799
But the way it sets up right now, New England just doesn't have the playmakers to really hit those ceiling type games.
00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:12.639
And their secondary is good enough.
00:12:12.720 --> 00:12:17.919
Their defense is solid just across the board, but their secondary is really good going against Jacksonville.
00:12:18.080 --> 00:12:24.639
But I think that this it keeps this game in check and that it's not a big back and forth game.
00:12:24.799 --> 00:12:31.759
And with Drake just not having all of his weapons with AJ Brown being out, AJ Brown being out really changes the dynamic of this offense.
00:12:31.840 --> 00:12:37.919
They just don't have a dynamic playmaker besides Trevion Henderson that can make big plays.
00:12:38.720 --> 00:12:41.440
So because of that, I'm out on Drake May.
00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:43.840
Next up, we got Justin Herbert.
00:12:44.000 --> 00:12:50.559
They've looked really bad the first two weeks, but they're playing Buffalo, who has a really bad secondary, likely going to score a lot of points.
00:12:51.440 --> 00:12:56.559
I think that Herbert will have a good game this week, but I think it's pretty unlikely a great game.
00:12:56.720 --> 00:12:59.679
They just don't look in sync.
00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:01.519
That offensive line is really bad.
00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:09.440
And there's this defenses that they're going against in Buffalo is bad, but it's not going to be able to cover up everything, all the issues that they've had.
00:13:09.519 --> 00:13:10.720
I think they'll be better this week.
00:13:10.960 --> 00:13:16.000
Herbert likely is going to score somewhere in that 20 to 25 point range, but that's not enough to win us tournaments.
00:13:16.159 --> 00:13:18.799
So because of that, I'm out on Herbert.
00:13:19.279 --> 00:13:20.799
Next up is Trevor Lawrence.
00:13:20.879 --> 00:13:29.120
We talked a little bit about him when we talked about Drake May, and I mentioned the secondary for the Patriots.
00:13:29.279 --> 00:13:33.919
I think it'll be a solid game for him, but I don't think the real ceiling is there.
00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:37.919
So I'm going to go ahead and take him out of my lineup this week.
00:13:38.480 --> 00:13:41.679
Bryce Young has been balling out so far this year.
00:13:41.919 --> 00:13:44.240
They play Cleveland this week.
00:13:44.639 --> 00:13:49.039
And I think this could be the implosion of Deshaun Watson.
00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:55.440
So I think that this game environment is likely to be Carolina dominating and probably getting some turnovers on defense.
00:13:55.600 --> 00:13:59.440
And it being a little bit slower game, capping the ceiling for Young.
00:13:59.519 --> 00:14:13.120
I think that they'll probably try to just not make mistakes in the second half and run the ball a decent amount with Chuba Hubbard and just try to sustain drives rather than being as aggressive as they have been in early weeks, just because it's unlikely that Cleveland's going to be able to move the football on them.
00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:15.519
And I think they're likely to turn the ball over a decent amount.
00:14:15.679 --> 00:14:19.360
The game environment just doesn't feel like the right fit for Young to hit is ceiling.
00:14:19.440 --> 00:14:21.279
I think there's better options down here.
00:14:22.960 --> 00:14:23.360
All right.
00:14:23.519 --> 00:14:28.720
So we've got seven guys now, and we're getting into the cheaper range.
00:14:28.879 --> 00:14:33.840
The next three guys that I have up are Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Geno Smith.
00:14:34.159 --> 00:14:41.519
Sam Darnold at 5,400, they play Washington, an absolutely horrible defense, especially in the secondary.
00:14:41.679 --> 00:14:47.919
I do think that Seattle, with Darnold likely being back, it sounds like he's going to play this week.
00:14:48.399 --> 00:14:54.480
I think they're just going to take advantage of the weakness of Washington, and we're going to see a ton of JSN.
00:14:54.559 --> 00:15:02.399
And I also think that Washington's obviously going to do everything they can to take away JSN, which opens up some opportunities for Rasheed Shahid.
00:15:02.559 --> 00:15:08.639
I think this could be one of those games where Sam Darnold throws for like 350 yards and three or maybe even four touchdowns.
00:15:09.440 --> 00:15:11.759
And at 5,400, that could be huge for us.
00:15:11.840 --> 00:15:17.840
And then we can get the stacks with Darnell or sorry, with uh JSN and with Shahid as well.
00:15:18.080 --> 00:15:20.960
So I think he's a sneaky play at 5,400.
00:15:21.440 --> 00:15:31.600
We're paying up at a lot of, we're gonna we'll talk through it, but we're gonna end up paying up at a lot of positions this week, especially at running back, and a lot of our core uh QB plays obviously are more expensive.
00:15:31.679 --> 00:15:37.519
So finding some places to get some salary savings with a few quarterbacks down here, I think is solid.
00:15:37.840 --> 00:15:45.679
Donald, Murray, and Smith, they're all gonna make my player pool, but I'm gonna have all of them in like the 5 to 8% range.
00:15:45.759 --> 00:15:49.279
I want to mix them in a little bit, but I don't want to make huge stands on them.
00:15:49.440 --> 00:15:51.919
But I want to have some lineups built with their core guys.
00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:54.080
And all three of these guys are really easy to stack.
00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:56.960
If they have big games, you know who it's gonna go to.
00:15:57.120 --> 00:15:59.919
So I really like building with these guys this week.
00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:05.840
Now with Kyler Murray, the reason that he's in my lineup, Tampa Bay is decent against the run.
00:16:06.240 --> 00:16:09.840
All that Minnesota has in the run game right now is Aaron Jones.
00:16:09.919 --> 00:16:11.600
He's a little bit banged up.
00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:20.320
And I think that Tampa Bay is likely gonna be able to stop the run, but they just this secondary has struggled.
00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:30.720
And I think that the combination of Kyler Murray being back and healthy and Justin Jefferson is just leading to like a pass funnel type environment.
00:16:30.960 --> 00:16:33.279
This could be one that absolutely flops.
00:16:33.519 --> 00:16:39.440
Kyler Murray looked bad in the little bit that we saw him, but I think he's a pretty big upgrade over Carson Wentz.
00:16:39.519 --> 00:16:42.080
And this matchup, I think Tampa Bay's defense is just bad.
00:16:42.159 --> 00:16:47.919
They got torn up last week by Deshaun Watson, and you all know how I feel about Deshaun Watson.
00:16:48.000 --> 00:16:50.399
I think Tampa Bay's defense is just not good.
00:16:50.480 --> 00:17:01.759
And I think this is a week where Kyler Murray comes back and uh establishes himself as a solid NFL starting quarterback with an elite receiver in Justin Jefferson.
00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:04.079
I like the odds of that being a big game.
00:17:04.160 --> 00:17:07.839
And then same thing, they're gonna do everything they can to take away Justin Jefferson.
00:17:08.240 --> 00:17:13.200
Kyler Murray is gonna be able to get the ball to Jordan Addison a lot better than Wentz has been able to.
00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:15.599
There could be some big plays for Addison this week.
00:17:15.680 --> 00:17:20.240
So I like Kyler Murray and the double stack options that are there as well.
00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:21.599
Same thing goes for Gino.
00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:23.680
We talked about that Detroit game.
00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:28.240
I do think that that's a high likelihood of a game that could go off.
00:17:29.519 --> 00:17:36.720
At 4,900, Gino needs to throw for 303 TDs for it to really pay off for us, but I think he's very capable of that.
00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:41.440
And again, like the concentration there is really solid against a really bad Detroit defense.
00:17:41.599 --> 00:17:51.920
Their secondary's been brutal, and they've also just been really blitz-heavy and running a lot of single-high man coverage, which leads to big plays.
00:17:52.079 --> 00:17:56.480
With Gino, we know it's going to Garrett Wilson, and we know it's going to Adnai Mitchell.
00:17:56.559 --> 00:18:06.240
I actually really like the matchup for Adnai Mitchell this week going against um Yassine at corner there, and he's very affordable as well.
00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:10.400
So Gino, I think, is sneaky in a game environment that likely is going to have a lot of points.
00:18:10.640 --> 00:18:12.640
Gino looked pretty good in the first two weeks.
00:18:12.720 --> 00:18:15.359
I watched all of his film from the first two weeks.
00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:17.839
Feel confident in him delivering the ball when he has time.
00:18:18.000 --> 00:18:27.039
He seems in control of that offense, and he's got two passing weapons in um Garrett Wilson and Adnaya Mitchell that you know that's where the volume's gonna go.
00:18:27.119 --> 00:18:31.279
And this week also with Mason Taylor out, it does open up Kenyon Sadiq a little bit too.
00:18:31.359 --> 00:18:38.079
So some fun stacking partners to go with Gino in a game where the opponent's likely gonna score a lot of points in a dome.
00:18:38.559 --> 00:18:42.640
Just seems like a decent chance to take a shot on a guy at 4,900.
00:18:43.440 --> 00:18:45.759
All right, that is our quarterback room.
00:18:45.839 --> 00:18:48.319
Let's move on to running backs.
00:18:49.519 --> 00:18:52.720
Sort this by salary here.
00:18:53.680 --> 00:19:06.640
What I like to do too when I'm I've got the pool set up, but what I'd recommend for y'all as you're going through this here at MilllimakerManiac.com, look who's got great matchups, sort by matchup, sort by hit percentage.
00:19:06.799 --> 00:19:12.720
That's the percentage of likelihood that they hit their ceiling, sort by ceiling, see who's got the highest ceilings.
00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:14.880
You can sort by nuke percentage.
00:19:14.960 --> 00:19:19.920
How likely is this guy to score more than 40 plus points?
00:19:21.119 --> 00:19:24.400
And we see Gibbs at 14.3% at the highest there.
00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:25.920
And then just overall value.
00:19:26.000 --> 00:19:30.319
This is value for the upside per dollar, who are the best values this week.
00:19:30.480 --> 00:19:38.079
And we see Jonathan Taylor, Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, Kenneth Walker, Ash and Genty, all right there.
00:19:38.240 --> 00:19:40.640
I'll just spoiler alert on all those guys.
00:19:40.799 --> 00:19:43.200
They're all going to be in my player pool this week.
00:19:43.599 --> 00:19:50.160
They all are getting really solid volume and good offenses and games that are likely to score a decent amount of points.
00:19:50.480 --> 00:19:51.920
Those guys are all studs.
00:19:52.079 --> 00:19:54.640
Taylor's the one that is probably going to be pretty underowned.
00:19:54.799 --> 00:20:00.400
The matchup's not great because he's playing Houston, but this is a game in Indianapolis.
00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:02.640
He's had big games against Houston in the past.
00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:04.559
They're going to rely on him.
00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:09.119
And he can definitely break one against any defense or a couple.
00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:12.400
And he's going to be big leverage on the field.
00:20:13.039 --> 00:20:15.920
Every single matchup, he has a chance of having big games.
00:20:16.079 --> 00:20:17.519
So we're going to lean into him.
00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:18.960
He'll definitely be in our player pool.
00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:21.119
Jameer Gibbs, same thing, obviously.
00:20:21.359 --> 00:20:29.119
Expensive at 8,800, but an absolute workhorse, an explosive player, game at home against a bad defense.
00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:31.920
Obviously, could have a huge game this week.
00:20:32.160 --> 00:20:34.640
Christian McCaffrey, also same thing.
00:20:34.880 --> 00:20:36.640
He's still getting belkout work.
00:20:36.720 --> 00:20:37.519
People are a little bit worried.
00:20:37.599 --> 00:20:43.519
What they've finally been doing is actually taking him out when they have big leads and taking away some of those shares.
00:20:43.599 --> 00:20:49.839
But any of the concentration and volume that matters when the game's been competitive, he's still getting all of that.
00:20:49.920 --> 00:20:55.519
So I don't have any concerns there about his volume and him still being a red zone weapon.
00:20:55.920 --> 00:21:06.240
Derek Henry, we talked about it with Lamar, but I think that they're going to rely on Henry a lot with Zay being out and really only having two weapons in the passing game and Bateman and Mark Andrews.
00:21:06.319 --> 00:21:08.720
So I think it could be a big Derrick Henry game.
00:21:08.799 --> 00:21:10.559
And he's at 7,700.
00:21:10.640 --> 00:21:13.359
And then Kenneth Walker, first time having him on the main slate.
00:21:13.440 --> 00:21:14.240
They play Miami.
00:21:14.319 --> 00:21:15.759
He's been an absolute workhorse.
00:21:16.000 --> 00:21:18.799
He's my only core play that I have at running back.
00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:25.119
I think he is an absolute stud and likely to have a big week and a really great matchup for him.
00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:26.720
It's an elite matchup.
00:21:27.119 --> 00:21:29.039
And then Genty, they play New Orleans.
00:21:29.279 --> 00:21:32.720
Had a few drops last week that made his stats look a little worse.
00:21:32.880 --> 00:21:43.119
But I think Brock Bowers coming back is going to open up a lot for him in the run game and into the passing game as well, because teams have two players now that they need to focus in on.
00:21:43.279 --> 00:21:46.000
So I really like where we're at with Dash and Genty.
00:21:46.319 --> 00:21:50.880
So that core group there, they're all going to be in my player pool.
00:21:50.960 --> 00:21:56.640
But as you can see, those are the top six guys from a salary standpoint.
00:21:56.880 --> 00:21:59.759
So we're paying up at running back, we're going to have to find value.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:01.519
You at other spots.
00:22:02.240 --> 00:22:12.720
The next guys that I am trying to decide on, one or two guys out of this group, are James Cook, Chase Brown, Brees Hall, Chuba Hubbard, and Jalen Warren.
00:22:12.880 --> 00:22:15.599
Again, this is where you should pay a lot of attention.
00:22:15.920 --> 00:22:24.240
If you want to win, all you got to do is pick these last three guys that I take out of my player pool, and they are likely going to have a huge week.
00:22:24.640 --> 00:22:28.480
First guy I'm going to take out of the player pool from this group is Chase Brown.
00:22:28.640 --> 00:22:30.240
We talked about the Bengals game.
00:22:30.319 --> 00:22:37.920
I just think there's likely going to be a couple solid performances that come out of that game, but true ceiling performance, I don't think the game environment's going to support.
00:22:38.079 --> 00:22:42.240
So for that reason, I'm going to take Chase Brown out of my lineup and look for ceiling elsewhere.
00:22:42.559 --> 00:22:47.119
Brees Hall, we'll get a little bit with our Gino stacks already.
00:22:47.519 --> 00:22:51.279
But I think that the bigger weakness that Detroit has is in the secondary.
00:22:51.839 --> 00:22:54.559
At 6,400, he is intriguing.
00:22:56.480 --> 00:23:05.200
And I feel pretty scared taking him out of my lineup, but I do think that the big game is likely to come from one of the receivers.
00:23:05.519 --> 00:23:09.519
And I will still get some access to him in my Gino stack.
00:23:09.599 --> 00:23:18.240
So if he like has like a screen pass that he takes a long way and helps Gino get there, I'm still getting access to that through the smart stacks.
00:23:18.319 --> 00:23:22.000
So I'm going to go ahead and take him out of my lineup.
00:23:23.119 --> 00:23:24.799
James Cook against the Chargers.
00:23:24.960 --> 00:23:26.079
I'm going to leave him in.
00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:29.759
I think he is a guy that can hit ceiling in any game.
00:23:29.839 --> 00:23:32.720
They're going to score points in a lot of different ways, week in and week out.
00:23:32.880 --> 00:23:42.960
There's a decent chance that the Chargers can't figure it out and that they just rely on James Cook to pound the run game and they don't need to do much with Josh Allen this week.
00:23:43.119 --> 00:23:44.799
We've seen that in the past.
00:23:45.359 --> 00:23:48.559
And I think there's a lot of reasons to believe that this could be one of those weeks.
00:23:48.640 --> 00:23:53.200
We don't really know what Joe Brady's going to do in a game environment where it's not back and forth.
00:23:53.440 --> 00:23:55.279
We haven't really seen that yet.
00:23:55.599 --> 00:24:02.160
This could be a game where they just blow him out, and that could be they just keep going with Josh Allen, or it could be that they lean on James Cook.
00:24:02.240 --> 00:24:05.920
I want to make some bets on James Cook having the big game.
00:24:06.240 --> 00:24:07.359
Then we got Chuba.
00:24:07.440 --> 00:24:11.599
Jonathan Brooks is on IR with the groin injury.
00:24:11.839 --> 00:24:16.880
So Chuba is has been, but is obviously the bell cow now.
00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:19.599
He's going to have the vast majority of the snap share.
00:24:19.759 --> 00:24:21.920
At 6,100, he's a decent value.
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:26.319
But against Cleveland, again, I think that kind of caps the ceiling just because of the game flow.
00:24:26.480 --> 00:24:28.240
He's going to get a lot of touches.
00:24:28.720 --> 00:24:30.960
Cleveland's run defense is pretty solid, though.
00:24:31.039 --> 00:24:34.480
So if he has a big game, it's more than likely going to be through the pass game.
00:24:34.720 --> 00:24:37.920
But I just think that that game's going to be pretty slow.
00:24:38.000 --> 00:24:39.839
There's not going to be a ton of plays ran.
00:24:40.640 --> 00:24:43.039
Because of that, I'm going to take Chuba out.
00:24:43.279 --> 00:24:45.519
Now the last one is Jalen Warren.
00:24:45.599 --> 00:24:49.440
We did talk about that Cincinnati Pittsburgh game probably not being great.
00:24:49.680 --> 00:24:56.160
But with Dowdle out, Warren's going to be on the field a ton, and he's going to be very involved in the passing game.
00:24:56.480 --> 00:25:09.119
Because of his involvement in the passing game and his price at 5,700, and the fact that it would be nice to get a little to have one running back at least with a little bit of salary savings, since we're paying up so much at running back.
00:25:09.279 --> 00:25:14.160
We're going to keep our pool a little bit wider at running back this week at eight and keep Warren in there.
00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:16.799
Hopefully, I think he's a very talented player.
00:25:17.039 --> 00:25:22.160
I think that the split with Dowdle honestly hasn't made sense to this point.
00:25:22.559 --> 00:25:35.039
But uh Warren with a full workload and his involvement in the passing game, plus just a talent bet that I want to make against Cincinnati, who is better against um running backs, but still not great.
00:25:35.279 --> 00:25:39.680
And in the passing game, he has a really big advantage against those linebackers.
00:25:39.839 --> 00:25:42.240
So I am going to lean into Warren this week.
00:25:42.319 --> 00:25:44.319
He'll be my value play at running back.
00:25:44.480 --> 00:25:55.200
So those are my eight running backs: Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker as a core play, Ash and Genty, James Cook, and Jalen Warren.
00:25:55.839 --> 00:25:58.319
All right, let's move on to wide receiver.
00:25:59.920 --> 00:26:04.160
So we are going to have to find some value at wide receiver this week.
00:26:04.319 --> 00:26:06.960
There's we are spinning up at running back.
00:26:07.039 --> 00:26:09.599
We're spinning up a lot at quarterback too for the most part.
00:26:09.680 --> 00:26:12.160
We have a few value plays, but they're not going to be a high percentage.
00:26:12.400 --> 00:26:15.599
Majority of our guys are towards the higher end in salary.
00:26:15.680 --> 00:26:20.000
So to make lineups work effectively, we're going to need to find some values.
00:26:20.240 --> 00:26:23.920
So let's do this chunk by chunk.
00:26:24.079 --> 00:26:28.319
Let's look at 7,000 and above first and get that narrowed down.
00:26:28.559 --> 00:26:38.559
So JSN currently has a 44% target share playing Washington, even though he's at 8,600, he easily could put up another 40-point game this week and pay off that salary.
00:26:38.799 --> 00:26:42.480
JSN is in our player pool for sure this week.
00:26:42.720 --> 00:26:45.200
Now Jamar Chase at A100.
00:26:45.680 --> 00:26:48.480
When we look at JSN, Jamar Chase, and Amara St.
00:26:48.720 --> 00:26:56.559
Brown and CeeDee Lamb, like if I have to choose out of those four, who's the most likely to hit their ceiling?
00:26:56.720 --> 00:27:02.240
This week, the lowest chance of hitting ceiling to me is definitely Jamar Chase.
00:27:02.319 --> 00:27:04.799
And you can see that in our hit percentage over here.
00:27:05.039 --> 00:27:09.680
That game environment just greatly reduces his likelihood of hitting huge ceiling.
00:27:09.839 --> 00:27:14.000
Because of that, I'm going to take Jamar Chase out of my player pool.
00:27:15.200 --> 00:27:18.480
Now we also got the JSN, Amara St.
00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:19.440
Brown, CeeDee Lamb.
00:27:19.519 --> 00:27:22.319
Just two good environments, too good of matchups.
00:27:23.519 --> 00:27:26.640
It doesn't make sense to take any of them out of my lineup, even though they're all expensive.
00:27:26.720 --> 00:27:27.759
I'm going to keep them in.
00:27:27.920 --> 00:27:33.680
We talked about Justin Jefferson when we talked about Kyler Murray, but I think this is a good matchup for him.
00:27:33.759 --> 00:27:36.960
I think Kyler Murray being there helps his upside.
00:27:38.720 --> 00:27:45.039
At Tampa Bay, just is the biggest thing for me there, where I think ceiling is pretty likely with Jefferson this week.
00:27:45.279 --> 00:27:49.440
So that means we've got to make another tough decision and we got to take Chris Olave out.
00:27:49.519 --> 00:27:50.160
He's been solid.
00:27:50.240 --> 00:27:51.440
It's a great matchup.
00:27:51.599 --> 00:27:58.240
I just don't think he has as high of a ceiling as Jefferson, and we need to just thin out this grouping above 7,000 a little bit.
00:27:58.319 --> 00:27:59.920
So we got to make tough decisions.
00:28:00.079 --> 00:28:01.920
So we're going to take Chris Olave.
00:28:02.079 --> 00:28:05.759
I also think uh Las Vegas' defense might be pretty good.
00:28:05.920 --> 00:28:07.119
So we'll see.
00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:10.400
But I think Vegas' defense has greatly improved.
00:28:10.640 --> 00:28:17.200
I think that they will likely be able to shut down Olave in the way that you know Olave scores 20 points.
00:28:17.279 --> 00:28:18.880
It's like you didn't shut him down.
00:28:19.039 --> 00:28:20.880
And in real life football, that's correct.
00:28:20.960 --> 00:28:27.680
But in fantasy football and DFS in particular, 20 points from Olave doesn't do it for us at his price point.
00:28:27.839 --> 00:28:30.160
So I think that's the most likely outcome this week.
00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:33.599
That's why I'm going to take him out because I don't think ceiling is there.
00:28:35.039 --> 00:28:37.119
We got Pickens at 6,600.
00:28:37.200 --> 00:28:40.079
I think him and Lamb are pretty similar in their ceiling.
00:28:40.240 --> 00:28:46.160
Um we can see from a stats standpoint, Lamb has a much higher ceiling.
00:28:46.400 --> 00:28:49.839
But against Baltimore, this game is going to go back and forth.
00:28:50.000 --> 00:28:52.880
Either one of these guys can go off or they could both go off together.
00:28:53.039 --> 00:28:54.960
I don't want to take him out of my player pool.
00:28:55.039 --> 00:28:56.400
I'm going to keep him in there.
00:28:56.799 --> 00:29:02.480
Then we got Garrett Wilson at 6,300 in a really great game environment and a really great matchup.
00:29:04.319 --> 00:29:15.680
Yeah, I just think this secondary being where it's at and the strategy of running a lot of single high safety just seems like a really good opportunity for Garrett Wilson to have a big week.
00:29:15.759 --> 00:29:17.440
So we're going to keep him in there.
00:29:18.240 --> 00:29:22.079
Now we're deciding between in this grouping, we've got T.
00:29:22.240 --> 00:29:27.359
Higgins, Parker Washington, Lab McConkey, Josh Jones, and Jalen Coker.
00:29:28.160 --> 00:29:33.200
So I need to take, I want to keep two of these guys and get rid of three.
00:29:33.519 --> 00:29:34.480
I'm going to take out T.
00:29:34.640 --> 00:29:38.160
Higgins for the similar reasons that we talked about with that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh game.
00:29:38.319 --> 00:29:44.240
Again, I think there could be some solid performances there, but it's pretty unlikely that we're going to get a big ceiling performance.
00:29:45.279 --> 00:29:52.720
And with Higgins being the number two receiver in that game environment, he's still pretty expensive at 6,100 for that type of bet.
00:29:53.039 --> 00:29:57.920
He could definitely burn us, but I'm going to take him out of our player pool.
00:29:59.279 --> 00:30:01.920
We're going to keep Parker Washington in it.
00:30:03.200 --> 00:30:05.279
He's got 35% target share right now.
00:30:05.440 --> 00:30:08.640
Everything's been designed for him, and he just seems like a baller.
00:30:08.720 --> 00:30:10.079
He's making all the plays.
00:30:10.240 --> 00:30:11.519
Trevor Lawrence trusts him.
00:30:11.680 --> 00:30:13.039
Liam Cohen trusts him.
00:30:13.119 --> 00:30:14.799
At 6,000, he's underpriced.
00:30:14.880 --> 00:30:15.920
He's a great play.
00:30:16.160 --> 00:30:18.400
We need him in our lineups.
00:30:19.039 --> 00:30:20.400
Next up is Ladd.
00:30:20.480 --> 00:30:22.720
I'm also going to keep Ladd in our lineups.
00:30:22.960 --> 00:30:35.599
And the biggest reason for that is I think that they try to want to try to use him in that Tyreek Hill type environment or type role that Hill had when he was with McDaniel in Miami.
00:30:36.240 --> 00:30:41.920
And that was how it was going in the first half of their first game before he cracked his ribs.
00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:44.559
And then he came back last week and it was very limited.
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:46.880
But he's got full practices in this week.
00:30:47.440 --> 00:30:49.519
He's not even on the injury report anymore.
00:30:49.680 --> 00:30:52.160
I think they're going to feature him and feature him heavily.
00:30:52.319 --> 00:30:56.480
If the Chargers have any success, it's going to be through Ladd McConkie at 5,900.
00:30:56.559 --> 00:31:03.039
I think he's a really good value with some really good, with pretty high ceiling against this Buffalo team, and they're really bad secondary.
00:31:04.160 --> 00:31:16.000
I really like Josh Downs, but I think from a ceiling comparison to guys like Ladd McConkey and even like Jalen Coker behind him, I just don't think he has the same ceiling potential.
00:31:16.160 --> 00:31:21.039
Decent play in cash, maybe, but not a great tournament play this week, I don't believe.
00:31:21.920 --> 00:31:28.400
Jalen Coker, a little banged up, plus um being in that environment in Cleveland.
00:31:28.559 --> 00:31:32.640
I think we're just better off going with Ladd and Parker in this range.
00:31:32.799 --> 00:31:36.000
So we're going to take Coker out this week, but we'll keep an eye on him in future weeks.
00:31:36.079 --> 00:31:40.720
I think he's a great play and a great player, but I just think there's better options in this price range.
00:31:40.799 --> 00:31:42.400
So we're going to move on from him.
00:31:43.279 --> 00:31:45.119
Same thing for Jamison Williams.
00:31:45.200 --> 00:31:46.799
Um a lot of up and down.
00:31:47.119 --> 00:31:55.680
5,400 heat, he does have decent ceiling, but I think it's just less reliable than other guys that we have down here that we can go after.
00:31:55.839 --> 00:32:00.319
And this is really, we're in this like 5,500 and under range right now.
00:32:00.559 --> 00:32:02.960
This I think is really going to be the key to the slate.
00:32:03.119 --> 00:32:14.880
If we can get two or three guys right down here, it's going to open up a lot of salary savings for us where I think a lot of the points are going to be scored at running back, quarterback, and wide receiver at the top.
00:32:15.039 --> 00:32:18.720
But we need to find some guys to fill into our lineups to give us some salary savings.
00:32:18.880 --> 00:32:22.319
And there are some guys down here that I do think are likely to hit.
00:32:22.960 --> 00:32:24.880
We just need to nail this range.
00:32:25.119 --> 00:32:28.480
So Jamison Williams, like he can hit.
00:32:29.200 --> 00:32:31.279
His career high is only 30, actually.
00:32:31.359 --> 00:32:34.000
And I just think they're they're going to go through Amon Ra first.
00:32:34.160 --> 00:32:36.000
They they've proven that.
00:32:36.160 --> 00:32:38.240
He's got a 16% target share.
00:32:38.400 --> 00:32:40.079
He can get some big plays here and there.
00:32:40.240 --> 00:32:43.519
Like, and this could definitely be a week where it happens.
00:32:43.920 --> 00:32:50.480
He's just not getting enough consistent volume and hasn't, when he's got the opportunity, hasn't paid it off so far this year.
00:32:52.000 --> 00:33:03.440
Next, we got this range of Debo Samuel, Michael Wilson, Jordan Addison, Rashad Bateman, and Denzel Boston from 4,500 up to 5,300.
00:33:04.160 --> 00:33:06.240
Debo Samuels 5,300.
00:33:06.400 --> 00:33:10.559
With DeMarcus Robinson being out, he's likely to see an increased roll.
00:33:10.640 --> 00:33:12.720
He's already at a 20% target share.
00:33:12.880 --> 00:33:18.319
We're going to get some access to him through Brock Purdy.
00:33:19.039 --> 00:33:24.480
But I kind of want to keep him in to give us a few different options in this range.
00:33:24.720 --> 00:33:29.680
What I'm concerned about is like earlier I just had Rashad Bateman in this range.
00:33:29.759 --> 00:33:40.799
And when I ran the the optimizer, I was getting like 40% of him because uh the optimizer had to do that to just fit salary with all the rest of my player pool.
00:33:41.039 --> 00:33:54.640
And so I want to spread that out a little bit in this range because I do think that there's a few different guys that can hit this week, and I don't want to be over-reliant on a guy at 4700 where it's like my week is really heavily reliant on one dude.
00:33:54.799 --> 00:33:56.640
So I'm gonna keep Debo in.
00:33:56.880 --> 00:34:04.799
Michael Wilson will get in some of the bring bring backs with um with Purdy.
00:34:05.279 --> 00:34:14.639
Now, the more I think about this, actually, as I talk it out out loud with you guys, I think Wilson might have actually the higher ceiling.
00:34:14.800 --> 00:34:23.199
Also, we just got word that um there's been a calf injury for um pass rushers eluding me um right now.
00:34:23.440 --> 00:34:31.519
But the star pass rusher for the 49ers has a calf injury and is um like in a gonna hit a hit IR.
00:34:32.239 --> 00:34:35.679
So it should be a little bit easier on the Arizona side.
00:34:35.840 --> 00:34:37.679
We've seen big games from Wilson.
00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:52.239
I think the game flow, we're still gonna get Debo in our stacks with Purdy, but if it's a a game where San Francisco's scoring a lot of points, like I think they will, I think Michael Wilson's the most likely receiver for Arizona to have a ceiling game.
00:34:52.320 --> 00:34:53.599
We've seen him have them in the past.
00:34:53.760 --> 00:34:57.519
He's been a lot more featured than um Marvin Harrison Jr.
00:34:57.760 --> 00:34:58.719
Marvin Harrison Jr.
00:34:58.960 --> 00:35:01.519
also seems to have a bit of a hustle issue.
00:35:01.679 --> 00:35:04.320
Um we'll see how the coaches handle that.
00:35:04.480 --> 00:35:17.599
But uh, anyways, I think Wilson is a guy that can, even through garbage time, put up a good chunk of points in a game environment that I do think has a likelihood of going off.
00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:20.559
Because of that, at 5,200, we'll keep him in our lineup.
00:35:20.880 --> 00:35:22.639
Now we got Jordan Addison next.
00:35:22.719 --> 00:35:24.480
I've talked about that Tampa Bay team.
00:35:24.639 --> 00:35:31.519
I've talked about how I think um they're gonna focus a lot of efforts on our boy Justin Jefferson, and rightfully so.
00:35:31.679 --> 00:35:36.480
That could open up some big opportunities for Addison with Kyler Murray there.
00:35:36.719 --> 00:35:43.519
I think that big boom game that we haven't seen in like a year and a half from Jordan Addison is gonna come back.
00:35:43.679 --> 00:35:50.559
We, you know, he before that, his first two years in the league was a top 24 wide receiver and had multiple big games.
00:35:50.719 --> 00:35:53.119
He's got a career high of 42.
00:35:53.840 --> 00:36:01.360
Let's lean into Addison, having a bounce back game, um, getting some decent quarterback play against a defense that I just don't think is very good.
00:36:01.760 --> 00:36:05.599
And then we got Rashad Bayman at 4,700 against Dallas.
00:36:06.320 --> 00:36:10.559
He last week was their featured receiver.
00:36:11.760 --> 00:36:15.199
Let me pull up what his stats were last week real quick.
00:36:24.000 --> 00:36:25.599
Pull it up over here, actually.
00:36:27.679 --> 00:36:29.199
Go to his player profile and look at it.
00:36:29.280 --> 00:36:31.360
I think he had nine targets if I remember correctly.
00:36:32.559 --> 00:36:38.400
Yeah, seven receptions, 88 yards, and a TD last year for 21.8, but he did have nine targets.
00:36:40.079 --> 00:36:45.599
And without Zay out there, there's just nobody else on that team that they trust besides Mark Andrews.
00:36:45.679 --> 00:36:48.960
And Mark Andrews, to me, looks a little bit wash, to be honest.
00:36:49.280 --> 00:36:50.800
And a good matchup.
00:36:50.960 --> 00:36:56.559
Lamar's gonna make things happen, even in a tough uh scenario, without having Zay there.
00:36:57.039 --> 00:37:03.840
Bayman's just gonna have way too much of a target share, 4,700, in a great game environment with Zay Flowers being out.
00:37:04.000 --> 00:37:05.440
We've got to lean into that.
00:37:06.480 --> 00:37:17.519
Then we've got Denzel Boston, who's played really well so far, but um, because Deshaun Watson is quarterback, and I think Carolina is a decent defense, we're gonna go ahead and take Denzel out.
00:37:17.599 --> 00:37:19.280
But I would not follow you for playing him.
00:37:19.360 --> 00:37:23.039
I'm just don't believe in the quarterback enough to keep him in the lineup.
00:37:25.519 --> 00:37:35.039
Okay, so next up we got Xavier Worthy, Devon Vele, Adnai Mitchell, Casey Concepcion, Rasheed Shahid, and Malik Washington.
00:37:38.559 --> 00:37:46.000
I'm gonna get Worthy a decent enough amount through Patrick Mahomes.
00:37:46.320 --> 00:37:48.079
So I'm gonna go ahead and take him out.
00:37:48.400 --> 00:37:50.400
I don't think he just has enough standalone value.
00:37:50.480 --> 00:37:54.960
If he has a huge game, more than likely Mahomes had a big game too.
00:37:55.599 --> 00:37:58.159
So we'll just lean on the stack portion there.
00:37:58.480 --> 00:37:59.840
Vale's been really solid.
00:38:00.000 --> 00:38:01.280
94% target share.
00:38:01.360 --> 00:38:04.559
Or sorry, 94% snap share, 18% target share.
00:38:04.800 --> 00:38:05.760
I like him.
00:38:06.000 --> 00:38:10.320
I just don't know that the ceiling is great this week, but it's a decent matchup.
00:38:10.480 --> 00:38:11.760
For now, we'll keep him in.
00:38:12.000 --> 00:38:14.159
Adnai Mitchell, we've talked about.
00:38:14.480 --> 00:38:17.679
Um interesting.
00:38:18.719 --> 00:38:21.599
He did miss practice yesterday, so we'll keep that in mind.
00:38:21.840 --> 00:38:24.000
Right now he's a toss-up to actually play.
00:38:24.079 --> 00:38:25.119
I wasn't aware of that.
00:38:25.360 --> 00:38:26.320
A finger injury.
00:38:26.400 --> 00:38:27.679
I would expect him to still play.
00:38:27.760 --> 00:38:32.320
If he's if he's out, then we definitely got to lean into Garrett Wilson even more.
00:38:32.480 --> 00:38:37.760
But um, I think that game just has such a high likelihood of going off.
00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:41.519
He's was heavily targeted, 23% target share currently.
00:38:41.679 --> 00:38:45.119
There's just too many reasons to believe that he can have a big game.
00:38:45.360 --> 00:38:53.199
So I don't want to go away from that when we can get 23% target share at 4,300 in a great game environment.
00:38:53.760 --> 00:38:57.280
Same thing for KC Concepcion as for Denzel Boston.
00:38:57.360 --> 00:39:03.119
I think he's got big weeks ahead of him, but with this matchup and Deshaun Watson as his quarterback, we're gonna pass.
00:39:04.400 --> 00:39:10.320
And Rashid Shahid just feels like this is the week that it's obviously a Rashid Shahid week.
00:39:10.480 --> 00:39:22.960
And when we look at it after the fact, I just think a big play or two is a high possibility with Donald being back and against this Washington defense that has a really bad secondary.
00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:29.039
Malik Washington with Caleb uh Douglass being out should even see more volume.
00:39:29.119 --> 00:39:34.800
He's already at 26% and at 42, 40, 26% target share and at 4,200.
00:39:34.960 --> 00:39:41.199
That's really intriguing, but he's consistently shown no ability to do anything with high target share.
00:39:41.360 --> 00:39:46.400
I'm gonna take him out just because I think there are higher upside swings like Shahid in this range.
00:39:46.480 --> 00:39:50.159
And we're looking for ceiling, we're not looking for 12 points.
00:39:51.280 --> 00:39:55.039
We're gonna get Flornoy through our stacks with Dak.
00:39:56.400 --> 00:40:00.239
At 3800, I think he's a good uh value in a game environment there.
00:40:00.320 --> 00:40:12.079
He's got a 15% target share right now, but um I think I'm just gonna lean into if he goes off, it's gonna be beneficial to my Dak stacks, and I don't need him as one-offs.
00:40:12.880 --> 00:40:15.920
Now, the cheap guy I'm gonna leave here is Taekwond Thornton.
00:40:16.159 --> 00:40:19.280
He's at 3,300, but we talked about it with Patrick Mahomes.
00:40:19.519 --> 00:40:22.000
I do think there's a high likelihood of big plays.
00:40:22.159 --> 00:40:27.679
Thornton is their deep route wide receiver, and he's shown done a good job of bringing those down.
00:40:27.840 --> 00:40:31.440
I just think that there's a really good chance that he has one or two huge plays.
00:40:31.599 --> 00:40:34.239
Hopefully, those turn into touchdowns at 3,300.
00:40:34.320 --> 00:40:38.719
If you put up a 20 spot, which we've seen, he's got a career high of 21.
00:40:39.760 --> 00:40:43.199
That that could be huge for us, and it opens up a ton of salary for us.
00:40:43.280 --> 00:40:50.559
So we've kind of got a barbell approach this week where we've got a good chunk of guys under 6,000 here at wide receiver.
00:40:50.639 --> 00:41:00.639
We've got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine guys under um 6k, and then we got our studs up top with JSN, Amaral St.
00:41:00.719 --> 00:41:04.639
Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson all above 7K.
00:41:05.119 --> 00:41:09.679
So a little bit of a barbell approach with some value there in the middle as well.
00:41:10.079 --> 00:41:12.079
All right, let's move on to tight end.
00:41:12.239 --> 00:41:16.079
We've got our pool down to 45, so we are getting closer.
00:41:16.400 --> 00:41:22.000
All right, top two, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, absolute studs, absolute beast.
00:41:22.079 --> 00:41:36.480
But at 6700 and 6,600, and with some of the matchups that we have down here at lower prices, plus how we're building with studs at running back and some at wide receiver and some at quarterback, we need some salary savings.
00:41:36.639 --> 00:41:45.840
I'll get a little bit of McBride in my Brock Purdy bring backs, but beyond that, I'm just gonna take him out of my lineup because of the salary.
00:41:45.920 --> 00:41:46.960
We need savings.
00:41:47.119 --> 00:41:52.320
If we have more high expensive guys up here, we're just not gonna be able to build the way we need to build.
00:41:52.480 --> 00:41:54.559
So same thing goes for Bowers.
00:41:54.639 --> 00:41:57.840
Also, I just want to see him back a week healthy.
00:41:57.920 --> 00:42:00.480
I'd be surprised if they gave him a massive workload out of the gate.
00:42:00.559 --> 00:42:09.599
I would still start him in your managed leagues, but when we're looking for ceiling at his price, I don't think he's gonna have the best um outcome from a per dollar standpoint.
00:42:10.159 --> 00:42:19.119
Now we've got Dalton Kincaid, who's effectively wide receiver one in Buffalo, 23% target share, an absolutely lee matchup against this Chargers defense.
00:42:19.360 --> 00:42:26.239
So we are going to keep Kincaid in our lineup, and we'll have him in non-Josh Allen lineups as well.
00:42:26.559 --> 00:42:30.719
George Kittle's solid, but he's only got a 47% snap share to this point.
00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:34.159
Obviously, he did a lot with that last week, and it's an elite matchup.
00:42:34.320 --> 00:42:36.800
We're gonna get access to him through our Purdy stacks.
00:42:36.960 --> 00:42:43.199
I don't really know that at 4,800, he's a guy that I want to spread across other lineups besides my Purdy lineups.
00:42:43.280 --> 00:42:45.039
So for that reason, I'm just gonna take him out.
00:42:45.199 --> 00:42:53.119
Later on in the season, we'll get more of him as he um increases his target share and his snap percentage.
00:42:53.280 --> 00:42:55.760
But we're just gonna tie him to Brock Purdy this week.
00:42:55.840 --> 00:43:00.079
If he has a huge game and you need to have him, more than likely Purdy has a big game as well.
00:43:00.239 --> 00:43:01.760
So we'll just lean into that.
00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:03.840
Exact same thing for Travis Kelsey.
00:43:03.920 --> 00:43:05.360
That's a really good matchup for him.
00:43:05.440 --> 00:43:13.599
But if he has the massive game and his ceiling the way that you need him to, we'll have Mahomes, and more than likely, that's a big game for Mahomes as well.
00:43:13.679 --> 00:43:15.360
So we're just gonna lean into that.
00:43:16.079 --> 00:43:19.840
Now, the next two, Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz.
00:43:20.079 --> 00:43:24.000
Mark Andrews is effectively wide receiver two in this offense right now.
00:43:24.079 --> 00:43:25.360
He's the second option.
00:43:25.519 --> 00:43:34.880
Um, him and Bateman are basically 1A and 1B, or I guess 2A and 2B, is the better way to look at it, without Zay Flowers being there.
00:43:35.119 --> 00:43:41.760
But he's gonna have he's got a 23% target share right now, a 4,400 in a game that's likely to have a good amount of points.
00:43:42.000 --> 00:43:44.800
There's a high likelihood that he gets in the end zone a time or two.
00:43:44.960 --> 00:43:46.880
4,400, that could be ceiling.
00:43:46.960 --> 00:43:48.960
That could be the guy that you have to have.
00:43:49.039 --> 00:43:51.280
So we're gonna spread him out of our lineups.
00:43:51.360 --> 00:43:53.599
Also, we're not playing Lamar Jackson.
00:43:53.840 --> 00:43:59.760
This is giving us access to Lamar Jackson playing well, but not hitting ceiling through his two top targets now that we.
00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:03.360
Have in our player pool and Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews.
00:44:03.519 --> 00:44:06.480
And then here is my smash of the week.
00:44:06.719 --> 00:44:12.480
This is a guy that I think everybody should have a high percentage of, like in the 40% plus range.
00:44:12.639 --> 00:44:14.159
And that's Dalton Schultz.
00:44:14.239 --> 00:44:20.960
With Nico Collins being out, I don't see a scenario in which he gets less than 15 targets, honestly.
00:44:21.199 --> 00:44:27.199
Partially because this matchup against Indianapolis's linebackers is big time to his advantage.
00:44:27.280 --> 00:44:31.440
This is the biggest matchup advantage of any position of the week.
00:44:31.760 --> 00:44:35.119
So we're going to lean into Dalton Schultz having massive volume.
00:44:35.199 --> 00:44:37.440
Hopefully he gets into the end zone.
00:44:37.760 --> 00:44:42.000
But there's no none of these receivers on Houston's can we can we trust.
00:44:42.239 --> 00:44:44.800
Schultz last week had 14 targets.
00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:55.440
And he's he's relied on CJ Strawberry lies on him.
00:44:55.920 --> 00:44:59.280
Everything is just setting up for him to have a massive week.
00:44:59.440 --> 00:45:02.559
Highly recommend him being your highest zone tight end this week.
00:45:02.800 --> 00:45:08.239
Then we got two punt tight ends down here at the bottom, and Darren Waller and Ronde Gadston.
00:45:08.880 --> 00:45:10.719
Waller's been a lead in the red zone.
00:45:10.960 --> 00:45:12.880
Got a really good matchup against Carolina.
00:45:13.039 --> 00:45:18.960
What they've basically been doing is setting Waller on one side of the formation, and then you have Coker and McMillan on the other side.
00:45:19.199 --> 00:45:25.519
Teams have shifted over to the Coker and McMillan side, and they've just been going to Waller on the other side.
00:45:25.679 --> 00:45:27.199
See if teams make an adjustment.
00:45:27.440 --> 00:45:35.119
But at 3400, with that kind of usage in the red zone, all he has to do is score once.
00:45:35.199 --> 00:45:37.360
And if he scores twice, it's a bonus.
00:45:43.119 --> 00:45:48.719
And I don't want all of my punt plays to be concentrated in one guy.
00:45:48.800 --> 00:45:50.880
Like right now, it would just be Taekwondo Thornton.
00:45:50.960 --> 00:45:53.440
And then the other guy on here is a Ronde Gadston.
00:45:53.679 --> 00:45:59.519
Obviously, he was moved to third string in the uh in training camp.
00:45:59.920 --> 00:46:01.679
But both guys in front of him are gone.
00:46:01.840 --> 00:46:06.320
Charlie Kollar is hurt, and uh David and Joke is hurt as well.
00:46:06.559 --> 00:46:08.480
Both eventually are gonna land up on IR.
00:46:08.559 --> 00:46:21.599
Right now, they don't have enough spots uh to put Kolar on the short-term IR, so he is technically not on the IR, but he is effectively going to be out four plus games with uh I think it was a knee surgery, if I remember correctly.
00:46:21.679 --> 00:46:23.840
But anyways, Gadston is gonna have to play.
00:46:23.920 --> 00:46:25.280
They have nobody behind him.
00:46:25.360 --> 00:46:31.679
He's going to jump into like a 75% um route rate, would be my expectation this week.
00:46:31.760 --> 00:46:33.199
He's gonna be on the field a ton.
00:46:33.280 --> 00:46:40.400
He is a very good pass catcher, and Buffalo is not good at defending the tight end, and their secondary in general is bad.
00:46:41.199 --> 00:46:52.639
So I think Gadston has a decent chance of being wide receiver two, or the second receiving option in LA this weekend, or I guess it's in Buffalo, but for the Chargers this weekend.
00:46:52.800 --> 00:46:57.360
So we got two solid punt plays with Gatson and Waller to mix in.
00:46:57.920 --> 00:47:03.519
And I just really like from a roster construction standpoint, having these guys with upside that are cheap.
00:47:03.679 --> 00:47:07.760
It just allows a lot of uh different builds within the optimizer.
00:47:08.000 --> 00:47:09.599
All right, last position.
00:47:10.239 --> 00:47:12.239
We are looking at defense now.
00:47:12.719 --> 00:47:17.920
So we've got the top two that are really expensive in Seattle and Kansas City with a great matchup.
00:47:18.000 --> 00:47:21.599
Obviously, Washington has backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in there.
00:47:21.840 --> 00:47:25.840
And Seattle's defense is a swarming defense that's really good.
00:47:25.920 --> 00:47:28.000
And then you got Kansas City against Miami.
00:47:28.559 --> 00:47:33.599
Miami hasn't scored a lot of points, but I will say that Malik Willis has done a pretty good job of not turning the ball over.
00:47:33.679 --> 00:47:35.440
He has taken a decent amount of sacks.
00:47:35.599 --> 00:47:42.079
But at the price of 3,800 and 3,700 in a week that we need salary savings, I'm just gonna have to take out both of those defenses.
00:47:42.239 --> 00:47:47.440
And we're gonna lean into Baker Mayfield continuing to turn over the ball and taking Minnesota's defense.
00:47:47.679 --> 00:47:51.920
We're gonna lean into Deshaun Watson being terrible and play Carolina's defense.
00:47:52.079 --> 00:48:07.679
And then we're gonna lean into Jameis Winston always throwing picks all the time and um play Tennessee's defense at 2400 and vote root for uh Jameis Winston to throw a pick or two that turns into a pick six.
00:48:07.840 --> 00:48:09.039
So those are our defense.
00:48:09.119 --> 00:48:11.920
So we've got our player pool down to 39.
00:48:12.480 --> 00:48:18.159
Now we can go over to our lineup optimizer and put these guys in.
00:48:18.320 --> 00:48:21.199
First, I'll show you over at DraftKings.
00:48:21.280 --> 00:48:29.360
After you have signed up for and reserved your tournaments, go to the lineups page, go to edit entries.
00:48:30.559 --> 00:48:33.679
I have already put in 181 entries.
00:48:33.920 --> 00:48:38.719
So we will download this CSV, go back over here to the lineup optimizer.
00:48:38.800 --> 00:48:41.599
We can drag that right into the lineup optimizer.
00:48:42.800 --> 00:48:47.840
Now it has all 181 of our entries that we're going to be um using this weekend.
00:48:48.000 --> 00:49:02.400
What it's gonna do is it's gonna build for ceiling, build 181 entries out of our player pool with the smart stacks, which we've got built now, and then it's gonna allocate it to the best tournament for each lineup.
00:49:02.480 --> 00:49:10.000
So it's looking at all of our lineups that are built, they're built for ceiling, and then it's allocating the ones that best fit each tournament for you.
00:49:10.320 --> 00:49:31.920
So now we can go over here, download your entries, CSV, and we can click upload, and now we have 181 lineups successfully put into DraftKings.
00:49:32.559 --> 00:49:36.239
Alright, my friends, thanks so much for tuning in this week.
00:49:36.880 --> 00:49:39.519
I hope that this is a week that we all have some big wins.
00:49:39.679 --> 00:49:43.679
I hope that you guys got your player pool right and that this video was helpful for you.
00:49:43.920 --> 00:49:49.519
As always, you can get all this information and see everything that you saw today at MillimakerManiac.com.
00:49:49.760 --> 00:49:58.880
Please join the Discord and put the logo on your DraftKings this weekend as well, so we can see a bunch of maniacs at the top of leaderboards.
00:49:59.119 --> 00:50:02.079
If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord or in the comments.
00:50:02.239 --> 00:50:04.320
Please like and subscribe, all that good stuff.
00:50:04.480 --> 00:50:06.800
Help me make this my full time career.
00:50:06.960 --> 00:50:08.079
All right, maniacs.
00:50:08.159 --> 00:50:09.039
Good luck this weekend.
00:50:09.280 --> 00:50:10.079
Got a good feeling.
00:50:10.239 --> 00:50:12.320
Week three is going to be the week.
00:50:12.559 --> 00:50:13.519
We'll see you on Monday.
00:50:13.679 --> 00:50:14.480
Thanks, my friends.