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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Jeffrey Schultz, Chief CEEMEA Economist
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst
Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 04 January 2024)
• There are significant pockets of vulnerability in countries’ ability to respond to physical risks related to climate change, according to our new BNP Paribas climate adaptation readiness scores.
• Some of the weakest scores are in south Asia, as well as in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
• Agriculture’s exposure to water stress is a potential source of global inflation volatility.
• In the short term, a potentially strong El Niño episode might keep food prices elevated.
• In the medium term, without sufficient adaptation, the agricultural sector might suffer unexpected losses and cost pressures due to climate change.
• EM governments face the prospect of responding to more frequent food supply shocks and investing in climate adaptation against the backdrop of severely depleted fiscal capacity.
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