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With prediction markets, gambling has gone ambient. To place your bets, you don't need to visit a casino floor, a racetrack, or your corner bookie. Now any uncertain thing on Earth could be the next big short. Wildfires, missile strikes, the next word out of a president's mouth. Every disagreement has a spread, every catastrophe a payout.
In this episode, NPR tech correspondent Bobby Allyn follows the money through Kalshi and Polymarket, the fast-growing, barely regulated prediction markets that have gotten tight with the Trump administration. These apps democratize insider trading. When reality pays out, the incentive isn't to predict what happens next. It's to make it happen.
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Mentioned in this Episode:
The Wisdom of Crowds — James Surowiecki (Book, 2004)
Google Zero is here — now what? — Nilay Patel, The Verge (Article, 2024)
Iowa Electronic Markets — University of Iowa (Prediction market experiment, est. 1988)
A Cosmic Voyage Through Deep Time — (with Ross Andersen and Grant Slater) — Futurology (Episode, 2025)
Where to find Bobby Allyn
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Credits
Executive Producers: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Nils Gilman, Dawn Nakagawa, & Jason Hoch
Producers: Grant Slater, Alex Gardels, & Nathalia Ramos
Associate Producer: Elissa Mardiney
Theme Music: Marcus Bagala
Audio Engineer: Kyle Scott Wilson
Futurology is a production of Studio B and Wavland for the Berggruen Institute in Los Angeles, California.
