00:00:33
Speaker 1: Welcome back. New edition of fish on first live here on the fish on first podcast channel. part of the Fowl Territory Network, and as always, presented by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. Eli Sussman here, the founder of FOF, our second trial run with these new bells and whistles and this new production software here on the live stream. And we certainly have a lot more momentum going into this show than the previous one. The Marlins wrap up a very long homestand, their penultimate homestand of the season, with a very surprising series victory over the Dodgers in the series finale today on Sunday. that is really on the short list of best Marlins games of the season. I mean, the whole game itself was kind of a snooze fest, to be honest with you, until the final couple innings. But those final couple innings really made it one of the more memorable games of the entire year, in my opinion, even at a stage of the season where the team is seemingly out of it, not mathematically, but on the verge of being eliminated. And yet they still have a prototypical fight in them in the later innings, a comeback, At one point down 3-0 and then 4-2 in the ninth inning. And they rally against old friend Tanner Scott and a walk-off home run by Augustine Ramirez. So we're going to get into that in just a moment. I think regardless of wins or losses, what I wanted to lead off the show with is talking about the man of the day. The guy who is ironically a Dodgers broadcaster right now but is a Marlins legend and is now immortalized in the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. That is Mr. Dontrell Willis right here. D-Train getting inducted. as the second member of this 2026 Marlins Hall of Fame class, along with Josh Beckett, his former teammate from the 2003 World Series championship team. And D-Train was honored pregame with the ceremony, had his daughters in attendance, had more family and friends and former teammates in attendance as well. And yeah, thank you everybody for tuning in. Let me know how I sound. I know that the volume was a little bit off in the previous live stream, so I hope it is better this time around. Thank you for tuning in and As a reminder, all of you can comment live on YouTube, Twitter, or Facebook, and we'll feature your comments on the show just like this, especially during the solo pod portion of the show. I may be joined by my other staffers later, but with D-Train, a guy that is really one of the most popular Marlins players of all time, a guy that has pretty close to a 100% approval rating as much as, I think more than anything, if he's not the most popular Marlin ever, I think he is the one that is the most loved, beloved. I don't think it's possible to not considering everything that he brought to the table with such a distinctive style. The fact that he had such immediate success, of course, as part of a World Series champion and a guy that for forever is going to be most strongly identified with the Marlins, even as somebody that bounced around the league in a handful of years after being traded away. He is on that very exclusive group of guys that you're always going to think of first and foremost as a Marlins player, not only in 2003, being part of that championship team, But in 2005, when he was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball and finished runner-up in the National League Cy Young Award voting that year. Yeah, so great to see D-Train being honored. And they did time it up when he was in town as part of the Dodgers. Because as a reminder, he is an analyst for the Dodgers television broadcast on a part-time basis. And I'll have to listen back to some of his comments during the course of the game. Because that's got to be a bit awkward, right? To be broadcasting on behalf of that team. and yet to be facing the Marlins themselves as the opponents in this case, even with not a ton at stake for the Dodgers at this stage of the season when they're on the verge of clinching the National League West division yet again, on the verge of clinching a playoff berth yet again, and yet all of the same, I think this was a really interesting sequence of events that brought him here at this time of year, and I'm glad they were able to, of course, honor him in the second ever class of the Marlins Hall of Fame. There aren't very many players in this franchise's history that are more deserving than D-Train, despite the brevity of his career, despite the pretty precipitous drop-off that he had after 2005. That was great to see, the ceremony and how much it meant to him. So now we got to get into the series itself, one where the Dodgers won the very first game of the series, courtesy of a Kyle Tucker grand slam, really put it away in that series opener on Friday. And the vibes were so low around the Marlins at that time, because keep in mind, they had just been swept by the Mets. They'd gotten to that point where I think all of us had fully ridden them off as being even on the periphery of this wildcard chase. And then that first game to... It was a relatively close game until the later innings, but for that to get away from them was very deflating. And these last two days, a couple guys will circle back to both Gus and Graham Pauly, as you see right there, both of them hitting critical home runs in those victories, respectively. We're going to get into that because those were guys that are definitely under the microscope at this time of year. But more specifically... on this most recent game here on, on Sunday, one where, as you look at the, uh, I think I had the win probability numbers here at one point, the Marlins had about a 6% chance to win in that eighth ending when they were down three, nothing, they got shut, held scoreless for six innings by Emmett Sheehan. And, uh, it just did not look like they had anything going whatsoever, but then they, uh, they rallied back and really, and, uh, One of the more surprising outcomes this entire year, Dax Fulton getting the win and Tanner Scott getting the loss. I mean, that on its own, to see that contrast, that itself kind of speaks volumes about how improbable this was for the Marlins. As we have Isaac come in, and I'll try to set him up as quickly as I can on the stream for us. Wow, yeah, just a really surprising outcome right here. for this team where Tanner Scott himself had a rocky first year with the Dodgers, but this year has been a lot closer to the version of Tanner that we saw with the Marlins for several years. And you do not expect to mount a comeback when you're down multiple runs against him as a, yeah, I think Isaac is already popped in right here. Just getting into today. If you want some quick words on D train, I just quickly summed up the fact that in my opinion, I think his approval rating is about as high as any former Marlin ever, like a guy that between, his immediate success, his influence on a world championship team, the personality that he has, and the fact that he's so proud to be a Marlin, even in retirement. Just your thoughts on him getting inducted as the second and final piece of today's Hall of Fame class.
00:06:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately, a lot of guys that start their careers with the Marlins, they don't really resonate with Miami as their, you know, true, true team. And for Dontrell, it's really nice for him because one, it's one of the best personalities in all of Major League Baseball.
00:07:07
Speaker 3: When he was in Major League Baseball.
00:07:08
Speaker 2: And then two, just he was so good during those first four years with Florida. It's nice to see someone be so proud to be a Florida Miami Marlin. And yeah, I mean, the stats speak for themselves. D-Train, one of the nicer guys in all of Major League Baseball. I'm not sure if anyone's had a chance to watch the full video. I believe Tyler Baronski put out when he saw his plaque for the first time. He's so humble and genuine that he's making something that should be all about him He's talking up about Sandy. He's talking up about Uri. He's just mentioning everyone except for himself. And that's something that I really, truly appreciate. He's just one of the better guys in all of baseball. And it's no coincidence that he is making a hell of a career post-playing with the Dodgers. And I'm sure the best is yet to come for D-Train.
00:07:58
Speaker 1: The stat right there on the screen where you mentioned Sandy. Sandy has so many of these Marlins franchise records for pitchers. The only one that belongs to D-Train is Complete Games, and that feels like a number that nobody's going to touch unless Sandy sticks around long enough. Sandy's probably the last one that has a chance to catch him in that category. If not, that's one of those records that might stand forever for a Marlins pitcher, given the differences in the era. So many of those came in just one season. So many of those came in his brilliant 2005 season on its own, but the game has changed quite a bit.
00:08:28
Speaker 2: If not Sandy, I will say it on the record, no one will ever break that. Unfortunately, the way the game is played today If it's not Sandy, no one will ever break that record.
00:08:39
Speaker 1: So now let's hop in where I was a moment ago. We need to get into today's game in particular, a rubber match between these teams. And for seven plus innings, it went exactly the way the rubber match was expected to go. The Dodgers were shutting out the Marlins in this case. One bad inning against Uri, that home run by Jose DiPaola. and that felt like that was going to be the difference in the game, and yet the Marlins rallied back against the bullpen, a two-out rally in the eighth inning, an Otto Lopez two-run single that brought them closer, but then they gave up a key run in the top of the inning, and still another rally in the bottom of the ninth at the very start, wasting no time. We should probably get into the fact that actually it was Xavier Edwards who started that rally in the top of the ninth inning, bottom of the ninth inning, fresh off the I.L., came off the I.L., perhaps a bit unexpectedly at this stage, despite no rehab games and no clear indications that he was game ready yet. But he has an infield single where he beats Tanner Scott to first base, and they build a rally from there with a bunt single from Jacob Marcy, a game-tying hit from Javier Sanoja, and then Gus with the home run. So anywhere you want to start with that, Isaac, I guess we could start with the very end with Gus, just because he's a guy that came up on the show recently. I think I brought him up as some guy that I felt He's really... under the hot seat at this stage of the season, given the way that it's been so disappointing from him overall. And that if there's going to be a time for him to show some sort of life in his bat and some sort of power potential, it has to be now. Otherwise, he's just such a odd fit with his roster moving forward. And he hits just his second home run since coming back from the minors only his fourth home run of the entire year uh so the guy that finished it he he's a guy that needed a moment like that as much as anybody in terms of yeah trying to finish off the season on a high note.
00:10:29
Speaker 2: Yeah it's unfortunate because the guys that the good guys that follow territory they asked me who's someone that if this guy gets hot maybe the marlins can somehow find a way to make this competitive in late september and obviously under different circumstances maybe this could be uh ramirez's coming out party but Unfortunately, this is going to be a September full of just evaluating what you have for next year. And Ramirez, I still think he's going to be somewhat valuable for this team going forward. They don't have a ton of right-handed pop. We sort of think that Otto Lopez is going to be somewhere in between his first and second half numbers. We have a couple guys there, but I think Ramirez could be somewhat of a valuable role player for this team, whether it's at DH or whether he finally plays some first base, whether he catches once or twice a week like we saw him catch on Friday night. He was actually pretty good on Friday night. I think he's going to play a pivotal role for this team in 2027, hopefully 2028 and further beyond.
00:11:23
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's the second.
00:11:24
Speaker 2: First time that he's really like crushed once since coming back from AAA Jacksonville. He was just waiting on that pitch from Brock Stewart and he didn't miss it. I know he hit one in Kansas City, straightaway center field, but this one is a little bit different. There was a conversation whether or not to bunt But Ramirez, I don't think he's probably ever bunted in his entire professional career. Sometimes you bunt, sometimes you don't. I credit to Clayton for not having him square up. You could have argued a bunt earlier in the game as well, but I think all the right buttons were pressed today, and hence the late-inning win here against L.A.
00:11:57
Speaker 3: Who would have thought?
00:11:58
Speaker 2: The Marlins have probably the worst record against teams above. 500, yet they're 4-2 against a two-time defending champion, Los Angeles Dodgers.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's a real shocker. And these last two games were both nail-biters. Graham Pauly was the guy that you brought up, I think, on the previous show as the guy that you thought had a lot to show down the stretch. And he's the one that hits the critical home run on Saturday's game that ultimately made the difference. It was a two-run homer for him in that one. So neither of those guys really everyday players, but for them to be some sort of significant part of the team moving forward, they really needed to show something. And even if it's too late for them to fully– restore their stock to what it was entering the year. Uh, their baby steps in the right direction and, uh, nice, nice moments to finish off on again. Uh, this game was like, just like the previous one, one of the biggest crowds of the entire year, but a lot of Dodgers fans in attendance. So, uh, it was a lively atmosphere, no doubt, but I think a lot of the fans actually went home disappointed despite the, the big comeback with the win today, uh, The Marlins improved to 10-3 this season when they were their teal Sunday unis. I've been tracking that all season long. Just one more game in those. It's going to be the regular season finale. And, yeah, so expecting big results that time around. And I guess some question here from Big Chungus about micromanaging how Clayton handled the game in those final innings. Patching it together after Uri only won five innings. Yeah, Vodnik was out there for, he was trying to get more than a full inning out of Vodnik, and he ends up allowing that run at the top of the ninth. Michael Peterson didn't pitch at all today, even though it was a close game throughout, but they were down in that situation. So I kind of understand it when they're down multiple runs. It is kind of harder to justify bringing in Vodnik. Something worthwhile bringing up. But yeah, ultimately, they just needed some sort of offense to make it matter, and they got that offense at the very end of the game. As I mentioned, Javier Sanoa had the game-tying hit in that ninth inning, and he called him the pretty simple, I think inarguable, the second-half MVP of this team. We've seen Otto. I've highlighted how Otto, as of late, he had an amazing homestand. He's kind of looking closer to what he was as an all-star player, but just lately, for most of this last two months or so, Sanoa playing basically every day, a lot of third base, some second base while X was out, just... dominant offensive player. He never strikes out, and all of a sudden he's slugging a lot more than he used to, and you know you can trust him to be reliable on defense if not above average, so just a little on Sanoja before we go to the break, him having yet another one of these high leverage moments of success.
00:14:31
Speaker 2: I don't want to just keep picking at the negative, but imagine if he was really able to play all of August, all of July, when Leo Jimenez wasn't taking up that third base spot pretty much every single day against left-handed pitching, but Sanoja is We've covered him since he was in the minor leagues. It's a contact-first guy. He can play literally all over the field. I think if he played first base, he could probably hold his own there as well. We know he needs to just play catcher, I think, and then he would have solidified at least all eight positions besides– well, no, all eight positions total because he has pitched quite a good amount. And unfortunately, his pitching appearances are what keeps him– are what holds his war a little bit down, unfortunately, because he's a two-win player according to baseball reference. He would be 2.2 if not for those– position player pitching nonsense. But really special guy, really special player coming out of the World Baseball Classic. He's going to go ahead, the winning run for Team Venezuela. He's a fun young guy. He's a scrappy player and they don't make players like that these days anymore. And if they do, they don't really get a shot at the big league. So I'm very happy that Peter Bendix kept him because he wasn't a Bendix guy. He sort of, he was already there when Peter came over. And so it's nice to see him not only be kept with the Marlins, but also get a legitimate shot to be a pivotal player factor for this team going forward. So kudos to Javier Sanoja. He has certainly outperformed the expectations I had for him this year. And overall, it's a major leaguer. And hey, this is a guy that's controllable. He can play all over the place. And whenever one of your starting infielders do get hurt, inevitably, he's someone that could fill that role. And he could maybe be a starting infielder for this team and for some teams. But I think he's at his best when he's starting three, four.
00:16:08
Speaker 3: Times a week.
00:16:10
Speaker 1: It's an amazing spot if you feel like you have a full infield and outfield of good players and then he's the next guy in line. Realistically, it just depends on how that shakes out. Realistically, if he is in that top tier of their position players, then he deserves it. You feel like you can actually win more games by having him there every day. It creates an interesting ripple effect because it is just so hard to find guys like him that play so many different positions at a competent level and at a good level Um, so it is an interesting, it's a good problem to have the fact that he is leveled up significantly from where he was last year. Last year was pretty impressive on its own, given the expectations and for him to be significantly more impactful as an offensive player, even compared to that has no doubt been a silver lining in the second half of the season. So we will hand it over to our friends at jet ski rentals in South Florida on the other side of the break. I want to talk a little bit about Owen Casey because likely end to his season and then Xavier Edwards coming back in his place. And then just a few notes about these final couple of weeks of the season still ahead. So stick with us. Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. They present all of our podcast efforts here on Fish on First. Miami's best jet ski and boat adventures. Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida with six jet ski locations and over 120 boats. There's something for every style and every budget. Ride jet skis right in front of the downtown skyline in Ferris wheel or book your own private boat starting as low as $ 300 with the captain included. Bring your drinks to your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only to book call 305-990-2192 or check them out online at sfjetskirentals.com. Make sure to use our promo code FISHONFIRST and that gets you a 10% discount off your next booking. Again, that's 305-990-2192 or online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Back here on FOF Live, Eli Sussman, Isaac Azut. We have one other topic I wanted to sneak in here was the NL batting title race of two weeks ago. I put up a little article on this because it's getting spicy. I thought it was almost a foreground conclusion that old friend Luis Arias was going to run away from it. But all of a sudden, back-to-back hit list games from Arias As I referenced before, Otto quietly had an amazing homestand. He had well over 400 these last nine games, even if the team lost most of those. And now, as of through Sunday's games, a rise down to 313, Otto back up to 309, a four-point gap between those guys as we're coming down the wire here. It's really, how much of a difference is that? It's essentially three hits the rest of the season. If they have the same number of at-bats the rest of the way, and Otto has three extra hits or so, That's probably going to be the entire difference between those two guys, so it really is coming down to that. Don't get to play head-to-head, so you don't get that kind of drama down the stretch, but nonetheless, these are guys that are in there every single day, so they're still a pretty big sample size ahead that could sway this one way or the other. What is your confidence level that Otto can actually pull this off? He was leading this race, of course, for almost the entire first half of the season, and then drops kind of off the grid. I think it briefly drops into third place in the NL or maybe even fourth.
00:19:25
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:19:25
Speaker 1: Do you think he has enough juice? And do you think, yeah, do you think it's going to happen? The guy that arrives, he's won it, what, three of the last four years overall in the AL, then the NL, then the NL, and then last year was the one year off. Can he be toppled in this case, given that it's rarely happened before?
00:19:44
Speaker 2: So two thoughts before I say my confidence level. One, it's miraculous that Otto is still in the race, considering just the really disappointing second half he's had following that All-Stars first half he did have. And then just the way Arise is slugging this season, their OPSs are not as far away as you would have hoped or liked.
00:20:04
Speaker 3: Arise is at 768 OPS.
00:20:06
Speaker 2: Lopez was about 30 over at 795, below 800, where he was living in the high 800s for most of the first half. So interesting in that sense, but I'm going to have to give it a 50-50 shot, right?
00:20:20
Speaker 3: It depends who the pitchers that the Phillies face.
00:20:22
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, we're not going to face the Marlins straight up, which is probably a good thing because the Marlins don't have any left-handed starting pitchers anyway.
00:20:28
Speaker 3: We'll see how Lopez finishes the year.
00:20:30
Speaker 2: If I recall correctly, I think Otto actually did pretty well in Arizona last season. and then they have another three in San Diego. We'll have Fish on first there as well, and then they've got to face the Braves at home. It's a coin toss, unfortunately. This is something that was pretty much a shoe-in. He would have been, what, the fifth Marlin to win the batting title?
00:20:51
Speaker 3: I'm embarrassed that much.
00:20:53
Speaker 1: Let's try to count them off the top of our head. We know Hanley won his. We know Arias most recently won his as well. So there's those two. Dee Gordon in between.
00:21:02
Speaker 3: Dee Gordon. So this would be the fourth player.
00:21:05
Speaker 1: Yeah. Are we missing anybody? I think that might be it. Just those three, unless there was one before Hanley at some point.
00:21:13
Speaker 3: Coughlin did not win that. No? Yeah.
00:21:17
Speaker 1: I don't think Sheffield quite won it, even though he was close one year. That's a good question. If anybody wants off the top of their head and knows in the comments, just let me know.
00:21:26
Speaker 3: It's those three, Dee Gordon, Hanley, Luis Arias.
00:21:29
Speaker 2: And of those three, of these, I guess, potential four, Otto has to be, you know, the least, you know, the smallest name of anyone, the least expected, right? A former two-time designated for assignment, waiver pickup by Peter Bendix, Luis Arise.
00:21:47
Speaker 1: Even the last couple of years when he's been successful, last couple of years combined, it was 257, those last two years combined. It was a little bit better than the league average. And last year in particular, he was down to 246. Like, this is a guy that brought a lot of value to the team despite not being like that quintessential pure hitter. So for him to turn into that and, and still be able to run the base as well as still be able to play shortstop at a competent level. That's, that's why it's, yeah, no doubt. It's been huge.
00:22:15
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:22:15
Speaker 1: Luis Castillo, I guess Castillo didn't have any himself.
00:22:18
Speaker 3: No, he never did it. Yeah.
00:22:20
Speaker 1: He was in contention definitely for a bunch of times. And, uh, yeah. And in terms of Pete Fairbanks in that middle game, why I was so angry at the end of that, um, I don't think we had the specifics on that. He did allow a run in the top of that ninth inning on Saturday to keep things kind of dramatic. But I think he's cooled down. And so, yeah, that's another guy that we got back. So speaking of guys recently returning from injury, there's X that was activated off the aisle today, Xavier Edwards, after missing the previous 12 games. I want to kind of tie a bow on Owen Casey's rookie season because it's kind of fitting that we talk now about him given that Similar to Gus, he had almost identical moments of heroics the very first weekend of the season. He hit that walk-off home run the very first game where they wore the teal uniforms, walk off against the Rockies to sweep that series. And that was his coming out party as a Marlin. He got off to that amazing start, that very first homestands. And then it's been that roller coaster ever since. For a lot of April and May, he was terrible, striking out a gazillion times, playing poor defense. He was a candidate to get optioned to the minors. We talked about that, I know, on show's during the course of May. But then he really turned it on in June and early July. He got back to being about a league average hitter, if not a little bit better than that. The power was there. The RBI total was really impressive. He was doing it. He was just a good situational hitter despite the strikeouts. And then even the strikeouts came down to a somewhat tolerable level from being like a big red flag to being kind of a yellow flag. He got hurt. And then since coming back from that original IL stints, hasn't really been very good at all the last month or so, and now he goes out with this back injury. Presumably for the rest of the year, he'll be eligible to come back the very final weekend, but unlikely to do so. So, yeah, where are we with Casey, Isaac? Because we know that he plays a position that is a very deep position in this organization, not only at the big league level, but right underneath at AAA and even AA in terms of having lefty-hitting corner outfielders And Casey is a guy that, you know, he's gotten his opportunity this year and just very, the overall numbers are kind of replacement level. And even a little worse than that, if you include the defense knocking on the door, you have Brandon Compton, you have Cam Canarella. There's probably others. There's, I mean, there's right-handed hitters that are worth mentioning like camp Alderman and Jonathan long. Like they have, they have other candidates that are biting at his heels and Casey does that middle stretch that was encouraging, but the, There was long stretches before and afterwards that not so much. So, yeah, what is the current, you know, expectation in terms of what his role on this team looks like in 2027? Is he even a surefire to make the opening day roster next year, just given the fact that he had these inconsistent, mostly underwhelming results?
00:25:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you've got to say objectively that it was a disappointing first full season in the major leagues for Owen Casey. Now, we'd be remiss if we weren't to mention that he was hurt a lot of that season, unfortunately. And he did have a really good stretch. Like you mentioned, May, June, early July.
00:25:30
Speaker 3: And then he got hurt, unfortunately.
00:25:33
Speaker 2: And despite the arm, I'm not sure if he's a future corner outfielder. I don't see it, especially in Lone Depot Park. I don't see that as his future. I see him as a future DH. I mean, I know Christian Yelich played a little bit of first base when he was an amateur kid. Maybe that's an option for Casey, but I don't think so. I think the Marlins are going to try and squeeze out any sort of defensive value they can for him. But certainly a disappointing season overall. But I think that next year is going to be his really coming out party because I still believe in the swing. I still believe in the play discipline despite the huge strikeout numbers. I think he's better than what he showed because what I saw in May and June, that's not easy to do, right? You shot off that insane start in April in that opening series against Colorado and And Major League Baseball really adjusted well to him. And he was just not able to put the ball in play. And he adjusted in a big, big way in May and June and was arguably one of Miami's best hitters during those two months stretch. And that was in a lineup full of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards and Liam Hicks. And he was arguably their fourth or fifth best guy. So I think he showed a lot of promise. Unfortunately, like a lot of guys on the team, whether it's on the mound or whether it's at the plate, he tailed off toward the end.
00:26:42
Speaker 3: And he was, I guess, dealing with some nagging injuries.
00:26:45
Speaker 2: But I'm still a believer that Are my expectations lowered a little bit from when they acquired him initially for Edward Cabrera?
00:26:53
Speaker 3: Maybe a hair, but.
00:26:54
Speaker 2: I still believe that he can be an everyday right-handed platoon. I guess that's contradictory. He can play every day against right-handed pitching, I believe. He's one of the few guys, him and Griff, are one of the two guys where I don't blame Clayton for not letting him play against left-handed pitching because he's just overmatched, unfortunately. But you have him play 130 games against right-handers. I think he can put up some solid numbers, and the power is game-changing. Him, Griff, that's game-changing power that the Marlins haven't had in a long time, and I think they're going to give him every opportunity to prove himself next year and the year beyond that.
00:27:27
Speaker 3: So, still a believer. Is he a top, top prospect, top 40 prospect in all of Major League Baseball? Probably not.
00:27:33
Speaker 2: I thought that was a little bit optimistic to begin with, but I still believe that the kid can put the ball in play enough to be a serviceable player.
00:27:42
Speaker 3: I know you're not as... you're not as optimistic as I am.
00:27:46
Speaker 1: I never was from the time they made that trade. I thought it was one of the more overrated trades on both sides. Yeah, I agree. To clarify, the Marlins sold high on Edward Cabrera coming off a career year, and Casey was a guy that had nothing left to prove in the minors, and he was kind of blocked in the Cubs organization from moving further. So it was a logical trade to address a couple of needs. I just felt that Cabrera was not going to keep up what he had done in 2025, and that Casey was going to have real swing and miss concerns So the strikeout rate is what jumps out is it was 37.3%. And if you were to maintain that over a full qualified season, it would be a major league record. Nobody has ever done that while getting like everyday playing time in a qualified season.
00:28:26
Speaker 3: Never.
00:28:27
Speaker 1: It has never happened. The closest is the washed version of Chris Davis from the Orioles, who had some very good years in the mid 2010s and then the late 2010s. that's when the strikeout rate peaked into 37%. It's him, it's Joey Gallo was up there a few different times. He was kind of an anomaly, but yeah, that's kind of what it is, where Joey Gallo was effective with that strikeout rate, but he's basically the only one. It has so rarely happened, even in this age where strikeouts are more prevalent than before. And you can make up for it if you hit for power. Yeah, the thing with Casey is there just wasn't quite as much over the fence power as we hoped. And that is the one thing that, I would hold out some hope for it. That certainly improves quite a bit over the course of a player's career. When he just turned 24 midway through the season, I think there is going to be more slugging from him moving forward. It's just a question about whether it's a combination of swing and miss, and also the discipline isn't great. There are so many swings and misses on pitches down and into him. That was kind of one area of weakness that stood out to me, where if he was really focused on pitches in certain zones, I think there's the potential to mask his uh, strikeout issue a little bit, but you have to be really disciplined. And, uh, to this point that it's both the discipline and the contact issues. And then to see, it's that defense where, um, if you're going to be, Oh, well, how is it going to fit on this team? If the defense does not improve significantly, we had the same exact conversation with Augustine Ramirez last year, And I don't think you're going to have a platoon between Gus and Casey at DH. Both of those guys are still in their mid twenties. Like that doesn't seem very logical from a roster construction standpoint. Yeah. So it was still a while ago. I think the names that I brought up are guys with no big league experience whatsoever. And I think it's unlikely that any of them, whether it's Compton or Canarella or Jonathan Long, Kemp Alderman, those guys, you know, it's more likely that they start next year at AAA and then wait for something to go wrong with somebody. Or if they really, force the issue like i think it's casey spots a lose like as long as he comes in training and and does solidly uh i think he'll get some sort of opportunity there to uh to prove himself and bounce back so let's quickly touch on xavier edwards as well coming back from the il before the end of the season he did have as i mentioned that little moment in this game that was very significant beating out an infield hit beating tanner scott to the bag to keep that going so it gives them stability at second base again moves javier snowhut back to third base again and X is, I think he's another guy in this group of players that was trending in a bad direction before his entry. He'd been slumping for a lot of the second half, and his future with this team isn't exactly guaranteed. He's a more established player than Casey by a long shot, and for that reason, he's a guy that would have a lot more trade value. He's about to be arbitration eligible for the first time, and even though he's really useful player for obvious reasons with his bats ball quality, with his base running, with his defense. It's, he doesn't have that defensive versatility that the team loves. He's locked in at that one particular position. And, uh, we talked about Sonoha being a guy that like all of a sudden, is there a big difference in quality between Sonoha and Edwards moving forward? Um, yeah, well with X, how important is it for him to finish off this season on a high note after, you know, dipping down gradually.
00:31:44
Speaker 3: I'd like to say, cause he's, he's a really good guy.
00:31:46
Speaker 2: And, um, I don't want to say that, but he really did fool us a little bit with the impact in the first half. I mean, those first two months of the season, man, he was OPSing in the high eight hundreds.
00:31:55
Speaker 3: And since then he's.
00:31:57
Speaker 2: Regressed in a, in a serious way. And in his defense, he has been dealing with some seriously nagging injuries. He should have been placed on the IL probably a little bit sooner than.
00:32:05
Speaker 3: When he actually was.
00:32:06
Speaker 2: But again, yeah, the difference between him and Sanoja is concerningly not that much. The only difference is the speed, in my opinion, the defensive versatility that goes in Sanoja's way. Obviously, Edwards has more speed, but yeah, it was a little bit disappointing because this was a guy that we thought was a shoo-in for the All-Star game this year. And with the impact he was putting over the fence, he had six home runs in the first two months of the season, and then since then he's had zero. He has not homered since May. So I think that You're right. His place on this team is not guaranteed. What's working in his favor is that they don't have exactly many guys knocking on the door in his position. Obviously, they do have Sanoja, who's playing pretty much every single day. But no one in the minor leagues that's really knocking on the door there. So I do think X is starting second baseman next year. He's going to be in the projected opening day roster for 2027, whenever that day does come. But yeah, it was a little bit disheartening to see the way his season has tailed off a little bit. And it just seems to be the theme for everyone on this ball club. They just tail off a little bit in the second half. I'm not sure what happened exactly. But that's something they're going to have to figure out because it's not a coincidence that pretty much every single starting pitcher, every single reliever, and a lot of their guys that shine in the first half have done extremely well. Liam Hicks being the one outlier who's playing really well for the Tampa Bay Rays, unfortunately. But yeah, X, I still think he's an extremely valuable player. He's a three-win player despite all the struggles. He's probably struggled more than he has succeeded this season. There's more of a sample of the struggles than the success. So still a three-win player, a really good second baseman, prototypical leadoff hitter, or he can hit four or three.
00:33:41
Speaker 3: He's not going to strike out a lot at all. In fact, he barely strikes out.
00:33:45
Speaker 2: So there's definitely a lane for him to be an everyday major leaguer, even on the best teams in Major League Baseball. But, yeah, the durability seems to be a concern towards the end of the year.
00:33:56
Speaker 1: Let me quickly just pull up this number to make sure I had it right, just to tie together a few different things that you touched on there. It's going to be pretty fascinating when all is said and done and the dust settles to think that out of Otto, Liam Hicks, and X, that X is probably going to finish with the lowest batting average of those three. Coming into the season, that was totally unimaginable. X was the top-of-mind batting title contender on this team. He's the quintessential guy that does that. And the overall numbers, despite, as you said, how he slipped off, the overall numbers are going to be solid this year. But it's still, considering that they've gotten such big overachievement from both Otto and now Hicks, both before and since he's been traded, that's interesting to think about in hindsight and look at that. Even Javier Sanoja, he's going to just miss qualifying for a batting title, but the fact that even Sanoja might be, at this moment, he's several points ahead of X for that as well.
00:34:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's unfortunate because I was a huge advocate that X was.
00:34:54
Speaker 3: Inarguably a better player than Luis Uribe.
00:34:57
Speaker 2: And here they are in September and Luis Uribe is having a much better season in all facets of the game.
00:35:02
Speaker 3: Even defensively, Luis Uribe is taking a step forward.
00:35:05
Speaker 2: With Sonoha being pretty much more valuable than Xavier Edwards, it's tough. Edwards has a 737 OPS as we enter tomorrow's series against Arizona. But yeah, that was concerning because that was I was certain that Edwards would be the more valuable player than Louisa Rice in 2026. I guess Ron Washington can do a lot defensively, and Louisa Rice is having that prototypical 2023 Louisa Rice season, and it's unfortunate to watch.
00:35:36
Speaker 1: Okay. As we wind down here, let us quickly take a look at this next series against the Arizona Diamondbacks coming up. Three games in Arizona. The final road trip of the regular season. Let that sink in. The very final road trip of the Marlins regular season begins. Three cities, starting with Arizona, then San Diego after that, and finishing up with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. So these three games against the Diamondbacks, it's Sandy against Corbin Burns in that first game. That's going to be fun. Burns fresh off the IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jansen Junk and Michael Soroka in that second game. Ryan Gusto and Merrill Kelly in the third one. The Marlins swept the D-backs when these teams met in Miami earlier in the year, and you could see the record comparison there. For people that maintain the delusion that it ain't over yet, there's a five-game gap between these teams, and they're about to play three head-to-head with the Marlins almost assured of winning the tiebreaker between them. So if they're going to go on a miracle run, it has to continue now. I won't say it has to start now. It started the last couple days against the Dodgers. It's going to have to continue with them winning essentially every single game the rest of the year and getting some help along the way. So, yeah, this matchup with the D-backs comes first between these teams. I think they will miss Zach Gallin, old friend Zach Gallin, who has had an awful year for them and has been on the aisle for most of that season overall. Yeah, I guess it's an opportunity to compare the two teams that are ahead of the Marlins and are blocking the Marlins in this wildcard race, the D-backs and the Padres. We got to look at the D-backs first. Between the two, which of these teams do you think is the more complete team, Isaac, and the one that's going to be a more formidable challenge head-to-head this upcoming week for the Marlins?
00:37:19
Speaker 2: I think post-deadline, the Padres did enough to really solidify themselves as NL contenders, not only just NL West or NL Wildcard contenders, but I think they are solidifying themselves as NL contenders to throw in the Dodgers. They're just so complete in every facet of the game. They have the back end of the bullpen set. They really added to the rotation, and their everyday lineup is just good enough. I know they're having some down years from Fernando Tatis Jr. Even Jackson Merrill isn't having the best season of his career, but they're the more complete team in my eyes. What's the bigger shock to me is that the Pirates are coming back. It's post-deadline. They really went on a skid, and some of their big acquisitions were really struggling, sort of like the Yankees in 2023. And there, I couldn't believe that you showed me the graphic and they find themselves ahead of the Marlins at 500 at 75 and 75. I'm not too worried about them. Back when the Marlins were tied with six teams, like the Cardinals and the Reds for that wildcard spot, I wasn't too worried about those teams. I wasn't worried about the Pirates, but I was worried about the Padres and Diamondbacks.
00:38:20
Speaker 3: And here we are.
00:38:20
Speaker 2: Miami's going to have to essentially go 12-0 to make this interesting a little bit. But I think Miami succeeds in Arizona. We'll do the prediction time later, but... I think San Diego, they've got a lot more going for them, and I think they have a lot more pressure to succeed as well.
00:38:36
Speaker 3: So I think the Padres can make it at least to the NLCS this year.
00:38:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, with this D-backs team, in terms of run differential, they're almost identical to the Marlins this year. In fact, a little bit worse, despite that gap in the standings between them this year. Getting some... Yeah, it's an unusual shape to their season, where their best player, arguably, has been their catcher, Gabriel Moreno. He's been... as good as basically any catcher in all baseball hitting 300 with amazing defense with more power than he's shown in the past. And just an amazingly well-rounded player, uh, all things considered, um, WRC plus in the one thirties. And it's a guy that has been injury free for the most part this season as well. So even Corbin Carroll has been a little bit below his usual standards. Cattell Marte has had some drama on and off the field, and he's been a little bit worse than we're accustomed to seeing from him. So it's been Moreno picking up a lot of the slack. And the starting pitching, the Marlins, we'll see what they're getting from Corbin Burns, because he's a bit of a wild card, having essentially missed the entire year with Tommy John. Their ace has been Eduardo Rodriguez, and they're going to end up missing him in this series, very fortunately. Not only an amazing pitcher this year, but a lefty. A lefty that's actually having success. So That is a bit of a break in these upcoming games that they don't draw him in this scenario. They just got Justin Martinez back from the IL. He's one of the nastier relievers in all baseball when he's healthy, but he missed most of the year. An old friend, AJ Puck, has been out for, I think, the entire year due to a combination of arm injuries. So that's an interesting trade to look back on in hindsight. All the excitement over Davis and De Los Santos when he got here. Puck was amazing with the D-backs when they traded him initially there in 2024, and then he's been He basically hasn't pitched in two years since then. Early in 2025, he got hurt. So that trade might actually turn out amounting to very little when all is said and done despite the initial interest.
00:40:30
Speaker 2: What sucks is that they would know more about that trade had they let Davison at least give him a shot earlier in the year. They had so many opportunities to plug him in at first base pretty much every single day. He's not one of those extreme platoon guys. He actually plays better against right-handed pitching. There was such a perfect lane for him to play. And like you said, Eli, at the very worst, evaluate him to see what you got. And they still have no idea what they have in Davis and De Los Santos.
00:40:54
Speaker 3: And we don't know.
00:40:55
Speaker 2: I know that they're not the highest on him. I think they feel more strongly about Justin Long and Kemp.
00:41:01
Speaker 3: But it's just.
00:41:02
Speaker 2: Infuriating that this was a Bendix guy that they acquired at the deadline. And he was one of their bigger acquisitions, a top 30 prospect. And we still have no earthly idea. how he's going to play in the major leagues, how they don't have no idea. And it's just, that one was frustrating to me. They should have known at least a little bit.
00:41:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:41:19
Speaker 1: I look at the numbers continue to like boggle my mind. He's been up four separate times this year. He's stepped to the plate 15 times. He has 15 play appearances in four different stints. That's like one series of just regular play. He's been able to do that. He's played one complete game at the Major League level from start to finish. Every other game, even when he's played, he's been removed from a pinch hitter when a righty comes up or he's coming to the game late as a pinch hitter. It speaks volumes. Actions speak louder than words when it comes to how they feel about Davison.
00:41:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you talk to any major leaguer, or at least any young major leaguer, how tough is it to get your feet wet in the major leagues when you're just coming off the bench late in the game and facing a Tanner Scott or facing a Mason Miller? It's not easy to do that, and it just really hurts your confidence a little bit too when that's the only time you're being used. And obviously, more likely than not, you're going to punch out, right? It's not easy to pinch hit, much less against these elite arms that are in the back end of bullpens, so... I just don't get it. Particularly now, obviously Miami is all but mathematically eliminated. I want him to start every single day. Let him start every single day. If he strikes out 40% of the time and he hits 150, fine. At least you have some sort of semblance of an idea of what he is. But if you're going to go into spring training next year, no less than you did this year.
00:42:39
Speaker 3: It's just infuriating.
00:42:42
Speaker 1: With that, a little teed up for our final segment of the show. This is Prediction Time. This is the leaderboard that was updated prior to this series. I'll have to update it again momentarily before things get underway on Monday night. First pitch, a very late first pitch coming up for the D-back series. That's the last thing we should mention. All three of these games in Arizona, super late night starts, 940 Eastern time on Monday through Wednesday. I don't know how many people outside of us sickos are actually going to be staying up, start to finish to see those games. But we will be staying up, rest assured. And for those of you that are, you'd be great candidates to be super subs of ours. Those are valued subscribers, along with our staffers and live stream guests. Those are the ones that participate in prediction time and we track their performance between every single series. How many games tomorrow's will win, who will be the series MVP as determined by win probability added. It is still super sub David Fernandez is clinging to the lead over Jeremiah Geiger atop our standings, but you can make predictions between now and first pitch on our site in the Marlins discord server as well. And I'll keep them tabulated for us. for everybody to see on fish on first.com. You know how this works, Mr. Isaac, we've been able to get a lot more of your predictions as of late now that you've been on the stream. So holding your feet to the fire yet again, these next three games against Arizona, you know, the stakes, the margin for error, non-existent for the Marlins. How do you think they will do these next three days?
00:44:12
Speaker 3: I think they're going to play a little bit of spoiler here out west.
00:44:14
Speaker 2: They're going to win two out of three, and I think Otto Lopez is going to play a pivotal role there offensively, and he's going to be MVP.
00:44:22
Speaker 1: I'll keep it fun. I'll say that the Marlins are going to sweep this series. They're going to do everything within their power to hold on to whatever thread of interest they can now that football season is underway. So in this series, Otto is a good candidate. I'll mix it up a little bit. I'll say I'll go with Griffin Conine. I think Conine is a guy that we hadn't mentioned on this entire show. He continues to have a very strong finish to his entire season. And going to Arizona, where the ball really flies, and the power that he has, I think he's going to hit a homer, if not more than one, over the course of the series, facing a lot of right-handed pitchers. And as long as that happens, he has that green light to be in the lineup every single night. So that's what I'm looking forward to. It was a question that I posed on Twitter about whether what people care about at this time of year, whether they want to see the Marlins get over 500 or whether they want to see them focus on the future and potentially lose most of their games down the stretch to like optimize draft position. There are a lot of teams like with the same record coming down the stretch of this season. And it'll be interesting to see where the Marlins finish within that jumble of teams. I think it's already clear where they're going to finish an actual post-season race, but in terms of this jumble of teams all floating around 500 in both leagues, I think the perception of this season could vary a lot depending on, what direction they go these final couple of weeks. So yeah, we'll be covering it all for you. Eli Sussman and Isaac Azut for fish on first live here on the FOF podcast, foul territory network presented by jet ski rentals of South Florida. So we're going to be back for another stream on Thursday during that off day. We'll have a fish on filter probably right before then with Isaac, Kevin Baral and AJ Ramos. Yeah, thanks for supporting what we do and tuning in at this stage of the season. Just 12 games left, and we're going to be bringing you all the insights we can on the Marlins' present and future here on FOF. So, yeah, we'll talk to you next time. Enjoy the rest of your football Sunday. And, as always, go fish. Thank you.
Speaker 1: Welcome back. New edition of fish on first live here on the fish on first podcast channel. part of the Fowl Territory Network, and as always, presented by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. Eli Sussman here, the founder of FOF, our second trial run with these new bells and whistles and this new production software here on the live stream. And we certainly have a lot more momentum going into this show than the previous one. The Marlins wrap up a very long homestand, their penultimate homestand of the season, with a very surprising series victory over the Dodgers in the series finale today on Sunday. that is really on the short list of best Marlins games of the season. I mean, the whole game itself was kind of a snooze fest, to be honest with you, until the final couple innings. But those final couple innings really made it one of the more memorable games of the entire year, in my opinion, even at a stage of the season where the team is seemingly out of it, not mathematically, but on the verge of being eliminated. And yet they still have a prototypical fight in them in the later innings, a comeback, At one point down 3-0 and then 4-2 in the ninth inning. And they rally against old friend Tanner Scott and a walk-off home run by Augustine Ramirez. So we're going to get into that in just a moment. I think regardless of wins or losses, what I wanted to lead off the show with is talking about the man of the day. The guy who is ironically a Dodgers broadcaster right now but is a Marlins legend and is now immortalized in the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. That is Mr. Dontrell Willis right here. D-Train getting inducted. as the second member of this 2026 Marlins Hall of Fame class, along with Josh Beckett, his former teammate from the 2003 World Series championship team. And D-Train was honored pregame with the ceremony, had his daughters in attendance, had more family and friends and former teammates in attendance as well. And yeah, thank you everybody for tuning in. Let me know how I sound. I know that the volume was a little bit off in the previous live stream, so I hope it is better this time around. Thank you for tuning in and As a reminder, all of you can comment live on YouTube, Twitter, or Facebook, and we'll feature your comments on the show just like this, especially during the solo pod portion of the show. I may be joined by my other staffers later, but with D-Train, a guy that is really one of the most popular Marlins players of all time, a guy that has pretty close to a 100% approval rating as much as, I think more than anything, if he's not the most popular Marlin ever, I think he is the one that is the most loved, beloved. I don't think it's possible to not considering everything that he brought to the table with such a distinctive style. The fact that he had such immediate success, of course, as part of a World Series champion and a guy that for forever is going to be most strongly identified with the Marlins, even as somebody that bounced around the league in a handful of years after being traded away. He is on that very exclusive group of guys that you're always going to think of first and foremost as a Marlins player, not only in 2003, being part of that championship team, But in 2005, when he was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball and finished runner-up in the National League Cy Young Award voting that year. Yeah, so great to see D-Train being honored. And they did time it up when he was in town as part of the Dodgers. Because as a reminder, he is an analyst for the Dodgers television broadcast on a part-time basis. And I'll have to listen back to some of his comments during the course of the game. Because that's got to be a bit awkward, right? To be broadcasting on behalf of that team. and yet to be facing the Marlins themselves as the opponents in this case, even with not a ton at stake for the Dodgers at this stage of the season when they're on the verge of clinching the National League West division yet again, on the verge of clinching a playoff berth yet again, and yet all of the same, I think this was a really interesting sequence of events that brought him here at this time of year, and I'm glad they were able to, of course, honor him in the second ever class of the Marlins Hall of Fame. There aren't very many players in this franchise's history that are more deserving than D-Train, despite the brevity of his career, despite the pretty precipitous drop-off that he had after 2005. That was great to see, the ceremony and how much it meant to him. So now we got to get into the series itself, one where the Dodgers won the very first game of the series, courtesy of a Kyle Tucker grand slam, really put it away in that series opener on Friday. And the vibes were so low around the Marlins at that time, because keep in mind, they had just been swept by the Mets. They'd gotten to that point where I think all of us had fully ridden them off as being even on the periphery of this wildcard chase. And then that first game to... It was a relatively close game until the later innings, but for that to get away from them was very deflating. And these last two days, a couple guys will circle back to both Gus and Graham Pauly, as you see right there, both of them hitting critical home runs in those victories, respectively. We're going to get into that because those were guys that are definitely under the microscope at this time of year. But more specifically... on this most recent game here on, on Sunday, one where, as you look at the, uh, I think I had the win probability numbers here at one point, the Marlins had about a 6% chance to win in that eighth ending when they were down three, nothing, they got shut, held scoreless for six innings by Emmett Sheehan. And, uh, it just did not look like they had anything going whatsoever, but then they, uh, they rallied back and really, and, uh, One of the more surprising outcomes this entire year, Dax Fulton getting the win and Tanner Scott getting the loss. I mean, that on its own, to see that contrast, that itself kind of speaks volumes about how improbable this was for the Marlins. As we have Isaac come in, and I'll try to set him up as quickly as I can on the stream for us. Wow, yeah, just a really surprising outcome right here. for this team where Tanner Scott himself had a rocky first year with the Dodgers, but this year has been a lot closer to the version of Tanner that we saw with the Marlins for several years. And you do not expect to mount a comeback when you're down multiple runs against him as a, yeah, I think Isaac is already popped in right here. Just getting into today. If you want some quick words on D train, I just quickly summed up the fact that in my opinion, I think his approval rating is about as high as any former Marlin ever, like a guy that between, his immediate success, his influence on a world championship team, the personality that he has, and the fact that he's so proud to be a Marlin, even in retirement. Just your thoughts on him getting inducted as the second and final piece of today's Hall of Fame class.
00:06:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, unfortunately, a lot of guys that start their careers with the Marlins, they don't really resonate with Miami as their, you know, true, true team. And for Dontrell, it's really nice for him because one, it's one of the best personalities in all of Major League Baseball.
00:07:07
Speaker 3: When he was in Major League Baseball.
00:07:08
Speaker 2: And then two, just he was so good during those first four years with Florida. It's nice to see someone be so proud to be a Florida Miami Marlin. And yeah, I mean, the stats speak for themselves. D-Train, one of the nicer guys in all of Major League Baseball. I'm not sure if anyone's had a chance to watch the full video. I believe Tyler Baronski put out when he saw his plaque for the first time. He's so humble and genuine that he's making something that should be all about him He's talking up about Sandy. He's talking up about Uri. He's just mentioning everyone except for himself. And that's something that I really, truly appreciate. He's just one of the better guys in all of baseball. And it's no coincidence that he is making a hell of a career post-playing with the Dodgers. And I'm sure the best is yet to come for D-Train.
00:07:58
Speaker 1: The stat right there on the screen where you mentioned Sandy. Sandy has so many of these Marlins franchise records for pitchers. The only one that belongs to D-Train is Complete Games, and that feels like a number that nobody's going to touch unless Sandy sticks around long enough. Sandy's probably the last one that has a chance to catch him in that category. If not, that's one of those records that might stand forever for a Marlins pitcher, given the differences in the era. So many of those came in just one season. So many of those came in his brilliant 2005 season on its own, but the game has changed quite a bit.
00:08:28
Speaker 2: If not Sandy, I will say it on the record, no one will ever break that. Unfortunately, the way the game is played today If it's not Sandy, no one will ever break that record.
00:08:39
Speaker 1: So now let's hop in where I was a moment ago. We need to get into today's game in particular, a rubber match between these teams. And for seven plus innings, it went exactly the way the rubber match was expected to go. The Dodgers were shutting out the Marlins in this case. One bad inning against Uri, that home run by Jose DiPaola. and that felt like that was going to be the difference in the game, and yet the Marlins rallied back against the bullpen, a two-out rally in the eighth inning, an Otto Lopez two-run single that brought them closer, but then they gave up a key run in the top of the inning, and still another rally in the bottom of the ninth at the very start, wasting no time. We should probably get into the fact that actually it was Xavier Edwards who started that rally in the top of the ninth inning, bottom of the ninth inning, fresh off the I.L., came off the I.L., perhaps a bit unexpectedly at this stage, despite no rehab games and no clear indications that he was game ready yet. But he has an infield single where he beats Tanner Scott to first base, and they build a rally from there with a bunt single from Jacob Marcy, a game-tying hit from Javier Sanoja, and then Gus with the home run. So anywhere you want to start with that, Isaac, I guess we could start with the very end with Gus, just because he's a guy that came up on the show recently. I think I brought him up as some guy that I felt He's really... under the hot seat at this stage of the season, given the way that it's been so disappointing from him overall. And that if there's going to be a time for him to show some sort of life in his bat and some sort of power potential, it has to be now. Otherwise, he's just such a odd fit with his roster moving forward. And he hits just his second home run since coming back from the minors only his fourth home run of the entire year uh so the guy that finished it he he's a guy that needed a moment like that as much as anybody in terms of yeah trying to finish off the season on a high note.
00:10:29
Speaker 2: Yeah it's unfortunate because the guys that the good guys that follow territory they asked me who's someone that if this guy gets hot maybe the marlins can somehow find a way to make this competitive in late september and obviously under different circumstances maybe this could be uh ramirez's coming out party but Unfortunately, this is going to be a September full of just evaluating what you have for next year. And Ramirez, I still think he's going to be somewhat valuable for this team going forward. They don't have a ton of right-handed pop. We sort of think that Otto Lopez is going to be somewhere in between his first and second half numbers. We have a couple guys there, but I think Ramirez could be somewhat of a valuable role player for this team, whether it's at DH or whether he finally plays some first base, whether he catches once or twice a week like we saw him catch on Friday night. He was actually pretty good on Friday night. I think he's going to play a pivotal role for this team in 2027, hopefully 2028 and further beyond.
00:11:23
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's the second.
00:11:24
Speaker 2: First time that he's really like crushed once since coming back from AAA Jacksonville. He was just waiting on that pitch from Brock Stewart and he didn't miss it. I know he hit one in Kansas City, straightaway center field, but this one is a little bit different. There was a conversation whether or not to bunt But Ramirez, I don't think he's probably ever bunted in his entire professional career. Sometimes you bunt, sometimes you don't. I credit to Clayton for not having him square up. You could have argued a bunt earlier in the game as well, but I think all the right buttons were pressed today, and hence the late-inning win here against L.A.
00:11:57
Speaker 3: Who would have thought?
00:11:58
Speaker 2: The Marlins have probably the worst record against teams above. 500, yet they're 4-2 against a two-time defending champion, Los Angeles Dodgers.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's a real shocker. And these last two games were both nail-biters. Graham Pauly was the guy that you brought up, I think, on the previous show as the guy that you thought had a lot to show down the stretch. And he's the one that hits the critical home run on Saturday's game that ultimately made the difference. It was a two-run homer for him in that one. So neither of those guys really everyday players, but for them to be some sort of significant part of the team moving forward, they really needed to show something. And even if it's too late for them to fully– restore their stock to what it was entering the year. Uh, their baby steps in the right direction and, uh, nice, nice moments to finish off on again. Uh, this game was like, just like the previous one, one of the biggest crowds of the entire year, but a lot of Dodgers fans in attendance. So, uh, it was a lively atmosphere, no doubt, but I think a lot of the fans actually went home disappointed despite the, the big comeback with the win today, uh, The Marlins improved to 10-3 this season when they were their teal Sunday unis. I've been tracking that all season long. Just one more game in those. It's going to be the regular season finale. And, yeah, so expecting big results that time around. And I guess some question here from Big Chungus about micromanaging how Clayton handled the game in those final innings. Patching it together after Uri only won five innings. Yeah, Vodnik was out there for, he was trying to get more than a full inning out of Vodnik, and he ends up allowing that run at the top of the ninth. Michael Peterson didn't pitch at all today, even though it was a close game throughout, but they were down in that situation. So I kind of understand it when they're down multiple runs. It is kind of harder to justify bringing in Vodnik. Something worthwhile bringing up. But yeah, ultimately, they just needed some sort of offense to make it matter, and they got that offense at the very end of the game. As I mentioned, Javier Sanoa had the game-tying hit in that ninth inning, and he called him the pretty simple, I think inarguable, the second-half MVP of this team. We've seen Otto. I've highlighted how Otto, as of late, he had an amazing homestand. He's kind of looking closer to what he was as an all-star player, but just lately, for most of this last two months or so, Sanoa playing basically every day, a lot of third base, some second base while X was out, just... dominant offensive player. He never strikes out, and all of a sudden he's slugging a lot more than he used to, and you know you can trust him to be reliable on defense if not above average, so just a little on Sanoja before we go to the break, him having yet another one of these high leverage moments of success.
00:14:31
Speaker 2: I don't want to just keep picking at the negative, but imagine if he was really able to play all of August, all of July, when Leo Jimenez wasn't taking up that third base spot pretty much every single day against left-handed pitching, but Sanoja is We've covered him since he was in the minor leagues. It's a contact-first guy. He can play literally all over the field. I think if he played first base, he could probably hold his own there as well. We know he needs to just play catcher, I think, and then he would have solidified at least all eight positions besides– well, no, all eight positions total because he has pitched quite a good amount. And unfortunately, his pitching appearances are what keeps him– are what holds his war a little bit down, unfortunately, because he's a two-win player according to baseball reference. He would be 2.2 if not for those– position player pitching nonsense. But really special guy, really special player coming out of the World Baseball Classic. He's going to go ahead, the winning run for Team Venezuela. He's a fun young guy. He's a scrappy player and they don't make players like that these days anymore. And if they do, they don't really get a shot at the big league. So I'm very happy that Peter Bendix kept him because he wasn't a Bendix guy. He sort of, he was already there when Peter came over. And so it's nice to see him not only be kept with the Marlins, but also get a legitimate shot to be a pivotal player factor for this team going forward. So kudos to Javier Sanoja. He has certainly outperformed the expectations I had for him this year. And overall, it's a major leaguer. And hey, this is a guy that's controllable. He can play all over the place. And whenever one of your starting infielders do get hurt, inevitably, he's someone that could fill that role. And he could maybe be a starting infielder for this team and for some teams. But I think he's at his best when he's starting three, four.
00:16:08
Speaker 3: Times a week.
00:16:10
Speaker 1: It's an amazing spot if you feel like you have a full infield and outfield of good players and then he's the next guy in line. Realistically, it just depends on how that shakes out. Realistically, if he is in that top tier of their position players, then he deserves it. You feel like you can actually win more games by having him there every day. It creates an interesting ripple effect because it is just so hard to find guys like him that play so many different positions at a competent level and at a good level Um, so it is an interesting, it's a good problem to have the fact that he is leveled up significantly from where he was last year. Last year was pretty impressive on its own, given the expectations and for him to be significantly more impactful as an offensive player, even compared to that has no doubt been a silver lining in the second half of the season. So we will hand it over to our friends at jet ski rentals in South Florida on the other side of the break. I want to talk a little bit about Owen Casey because likely end to his season and then Xavier Edwards coming back in his place. And then just a few notes about these final couple of weeks of the season still ahead. So stick with us. Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. They present all of our podcast efforts here on Fish on First. Miami's best jet ski and boat adventures. Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida with six jet ski locations and over 120 boats. There's something for every style and every budget. Ride jet skis right in front of the downtown skyline in Ferris wheel or book your own private boat starting as low as $ 300 with the captain included. Bring your drinks to your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only to book call 305-990-2192 or check them out online at sfjetskirentals.com. Make sure to use our promo code FISHONFIRST and that gets you a 10% discount off your next booking. Again, that's 305-990-2192 or online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Back here on FOF Live, Eli Sussman, Isaac Azut. We have one other topic I wanted to sneak in here was the NL batting title race of two weeks ago. I put up a little article on this because it's getting spicy. I thought it was almost a foreground conclusion that old friend Luis Arias was going to run away from it. But all of a sudden, back-to-back hit list games from Arias As I referenced before, Otto quietly had an amazing homestand. He had well over 400 these last nine games, even if the team lost most of those. And now, as of through Sunday's games, a rise down to 313, Otto back up to 309, a four-point gap between those guys as we're coming down the wire here. It's really, how much of a difference is that? It's essentially three hits the rest of the season. If they have the same number of at-bats the rest of the way, and Otto has three extra hits or so, That's probably going to be the entire difference between those two guys, so it really is coming down to that. Don't get to play head-to-head, so you don't get that kind of drama down the stretch, but nonetheless, these are guys that are in there every single day, so they're still a pretty big sample size ahead that could sway this one way or the other. What is your confidence level that Otto can actually pull this off? He was leading this race, of course, for almost the entire first half of the season, and then drops kind of off the grid. I think it briefly drops into third place in the NL or maybe even fourth.
00:19:25
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:19:25
Speaker 1: Do you think he has enough juice? And do you think, yeah, do you think it's going to happen? The guy that arrives, he's won it, what, three of the last four years overall in the AL, then the NL, then the NL, and then last year was the one year off. Can he be toppled in this case, given that it's rarely happened before?
00:19:44
Speaker 2: So two thoughts before I say my confidence level. One, it's miraculous that Otto is still in the race, considering just the really disappointing second half he's had following that All-Stars first half he did have. And then just the way Arise is slugging this season, their OPSs are not as far away as you would have hoped or liked.
00:20:04
Speaker 3: Arise is at 768 OPS.
00:20:06
Speaker 2: Lopez was about 30 over at 795, below 800, where he was living in the high 800s for most of the first half. So interesting in that sense, but I'm going to have to give it a 50-50 shot, right?
00:20:20
Speaker 3: It depends who the pitchers that the Phillies face.
00:20:22
Speaker 2: Unfortunately, we're not going to face the Marlins straight up, which is probably a good thing because the Marlins don't have any left-handed starting pitchers anyway.
00:20:28
Speaker 3: We'll see how Lopez finishes the year.
00:20:30
Speaker 2: If I recall correctly, I think Otto actually did pretty well in Arizona last season. and then they have another three in San Diego. We'll have Fish on first there as well, and then they've got to face the Braves at home. It's a coin toss, unfortunately. This is something that was pretty much a shoe-in. He would have been, what, the fifth Marlin to win the batting title?
00:20:51
Speaker 3: I'm embarrassed that much.
00:20:53
Speaker 1: Let's try to count them off the top of our head. We know Hanley won his. We know Arias most recently won his as well. So there's those two. Dee Gordon in between.
00:21:02
Speaker 3: Dee Gordon. So this would be the fourth player.
00:21:05
Speaker 1: Yeah. Are we missing anybody? I think that might be it. Just those three, unless there was one before Hanley at some point.
00:21:13
Speaker 3: Coughlin did not win that. No? Yeah.
00:21:17
Speaker 1: I don't think Sheffield quite won it, even though he was close one year. That's a good question. If anybody wants off the top of their head and knows in the comments, just let me know.
00:21:26
Speaker 3: It's those three, Dee Gordon, Hanley, Luis Arias.
00:21:29
Speaker 2: And of those three, of these, I guess, potential four, Otto has to be, you know, the least, you know, the smallest name of anyone, the least expected, right? A former two-time designated for assignment, waiver pickup by Peter Bendix, Luis Arise.
00:21:47
Speaker 1: Even the last couple of years when he's been successful, last couple of years combined, it was 257, those last two years combined. It was a little bit better than the league average. And last year in particular, he was down to 246. Like, this is a guy that brought a lot of value to the team despite not being like that quintessential pure hitter. So for him to turn into that and, and still be able to run the base as well as still be able to play shortstop at a competent level. That's, that's why it's, yeah, no doubt. It's been huge.
00:22:15
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:22:15
Speaker 1: Luis Castillo, I guess Castillo didn't have any himself.
00:22:18
Speaker 3: No, he never did it. Yeah.
00:22:20
Speaker 1: He was in contention definitely for a bunch of times. And, uh, yeah. And in terms of Pete Fairbanks in that middle game, why I was so angry at the end of that, um, I don't think we had the specifics on that. He did allow a run in the top of that ninth inning on Saturday to keep things kind of dramatic. But I think he's cooled down. And so, yeah, that's another guy that we got back. So speaking of guys recently returning from injury, there's X that was activated off the aisle today, Xavier Edwards, after missing the previous 12 games. I want to kind of tie a bow on Owen Casey's rookie season because it's kind of fitting that we talk now about him given that Similar to Gus, he had almost identical moments of heroics the very first weekend of the season. He hit that walk-off home run the very first game where they wore the teal uniforms, walk off against the Rockies to sweep that series. And that was his coming out party as a Marlin. He got off to that amazing start, that very first homestands. And then it's been that roller coaster ever since. For a lot of April and May, he was terrible, striking out a gazillion times, playing poor defense. He was a candidate to get optioned to the minors. We talked about that, I know, on show's during the course of May. But then he really turned it on in June and early July. He got back to being about a league average hitter, if not a little bit better than that. The power was there. The RBI total was really impressive. He was doing it. He was just a good situational hitter despite the strikeouts. And then even the strikeouts came down to a somewhat tolerable level from being like a big red flag to being kind of a yellow flag. He got hurt. And then since coming back from that original IL stints, hasn't really been very good at all the last month or so, and now he goes out with this back injury. Presumably for the rest of the year, he'll be eligible to come back the very final weekend, but unlikely to do so. So, yeah, where are we with Casey, Isaac? Because we know that he plays a position that is a very deep position in this organization, not only at the big league level, but right underneath at AAA and even AA in terms of having lefty-hitting corner outfielders And Casey is a guy that, you know, he's gotten his opportunity this year and just very, the overall numbers are kind of replacement level. And even a little worse than that, if you include the defense knocking on the door, you have Brandon Compton, you have Cam Canarella. There's probably others. There's, I mean, there's right-handed hitters that are worth mentioning like camp Alderman and Jonathan long. Like they have, they have other candidates that are biting at his heels and Casey does that middle stretch that was encouraging, but the, There was long stretches before and afterwards that not so much. So, yeah, what is the current, you know, expectation in terms of what his role on this team looks like in 2027? Is he even a surefire to make the opening day roster next year, just given the fact that he had these inconsistent, mostly underwhelming results?
00:25:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you've got to say objectively that it was a disappointing first full season in the major leagues for Owen Casey. Now, we'd be remiss if we weren't to mention that he was hurt a lot of that season, unfortunately. And he did have a really good stretch. Like you mentioned, May, June, early July.
00:25:30
Speaker 3: And then he got hurt, unfortunately.
00:25:33
Speaker 2: And despite the arm, I'm not sure if he's a future corner outfielder. I don't see it, especially in Lone Depot Park. I don't see that as his future. I see him as a future DH. I mean, I know Christian Yelich played a little bit of first base when he was an amateur kid. Maybe that's an option for Casey, but I don't think so. I think the Marlins are going to try and squeeze out any sort of defensive value they can for him. But certainly a disappointing season overall. But I think that next year is going to be his really coming out party because I still believe in the swing. I still believe in the play discipline despite the huge strikeout numbers. I think he's better than what he showed because what I saw in May and June, that's not easy to do, right? You shot off that insane start in April in that opening series against Colorado and And Major League Baseball really adjusted well to him. And he was just not able to put the ball in play. And he adjusted in a big, big way in May and June and was arguably one of Miami's best hitters during those two months stretch. And that was in a lineup full of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards and Liam Hicks. And he was arguably their fourth or fifth best guy. So I think he showed a lot of promise. Unfortunately, like a lot of guys on the team, whether it's on the mound or whether it's at the plate, he tailed off toward the end.
00:26:42
Speaker 3: And he was, I guess, dealing with some nagging injuries.
00:26:45
Speaker 2: But I'm still a believer that Are my expectations lowered a little bit from when they acquired him initially for Edward Cabrera?
00:26:53
Speaker 3: Maybe a hair, but.
00:26:54
Speaker 2: I still believe that he can be an everyday right-handed platoon. I guess that's contradictory. He can play every day against right-handed pitching, I believe. He's one of the few guys, him and Griff, are one of the two guys where I don't blame Clayton for not letting him play against left-handed pitching because he's just overmatched, unfortunately. But you have him play 130 games against right-handers. I think he can put up some solid numbers, and the power is game-changing. Him, Griff, that's game-changing power that the Marlins haven't had in a long time, and I think they're going to give him every opportunity to prove himself next year and the year beyond that.
00:27:27
Speaker 3: So, still a believer. Is he a top, top prospect, top 40 prospect in all of Major League Baseball? Probably not.
00:27:33
Speaker 2: I thought that was a little bit optimistic to begin with, but I still believe that the kid can put the ball in play enough to be a serviceable player.
00:27:42
Speaker 3: I know you're not as... you're not as optimistic as I am.
00:27:46
Speaker 1: I never was from the time they made that trade. I thought it was one of the more overrated trades on both sides. Yeah, I agree. To clarify, the Marlins sold high on Edward Cabrera coming off a career year, and Casey was a guy that had nothing left to prove in the minors, and he was kind of blocked in the Cubs organization from moving further. So it was a logical trade to address a couple of needs. I just felt that Cabrera was not going to keep up what he had done in 2025, and that Casey was going to have real swing and miss concerns So the strikeout rate is what jumps out is it was 37.3%. And if you were to maintain that over a full qualified season, it would be a major league record. Nobody has ever done that while getting like everyday playing time in a qualified season.
00:28:26
Speaker 3: Never.
00:28:27
Speaker 1: It has never happened. The closest is the washed version of Chris Davis from the Orioles, who had some very good years in the mid 2010s and then the late 2010s. that's when the strikeout rate peaked into 37%. It's him, it's Joey Gallo was up there a few different times. He was kind of an anomaly, but yeah, that's kind of what it is, where Joey Gallo was effective with that strikeout rate, but he's basically the only one. It has so rarely happened, even in this age where strikeouts are more prevalent than before. And you can make up for it if you hit for power. Yeah, the thing with Casey is there just wasn't quite as much over the fence power as we hoped. And that is the one thing that, I would hold out some hope for it. That certainly improves quite a bit over the course of a player's career. When he just turned 24 midway through the season, I think there is going to be more slugging from him moving forward. It's just a question about whether it's a combination of swing and miss, and also the discipline isn't great. There are so many swings and misses on pitches down and into him. That was kind of one area of weakness that stood out to me, where if he was really focused on pitches in certain zones, I think there's the potential to mask his uh, strikeout issue a little bit, but you have to be really disciplined. And, uh, to this point that it's both the discipline and the contact issues. And then to see, it's that defense where, um, if you're going to be, Oh, well, how is it going to fit on this team? If the defense does not improve significantly, we had the same exact conversation with Augustine Ramirez last year, And I don't think you're going to have a platoon between Gus and Casey at DH. Both of those guys are still in their mid twenties. Like that doesn't seem very logical from a roster construction standpoint. Yeah. So it was still a while ago. I think the names that I brought up are guys with no big league experience whatsoever. And I think it's unlikely that any of them, whether it's Compton or Canarella or Jonathan Long, Kemp Alderman, those guys, you know, it's more likely that they start next year at AAA and then wait for something to go wrong with somebody. Or if they really, force the issue like i think it's casey spots a lose like as long as he comes in training and and does solidly uh i think he'll get some sort of opportunity there to uh to prove himself and bounce back so let's quickly touch on xavier edwards as well coming back from the il before the end of the season he did have as i mentioned that little moment in this game that was very significant beating out an infield hit beating tanner scott to the bag to keep that going so it gives them stability at second base again moves javier snowhut back to third base again and X is, I think he's another guy in this group of players that was trending in a bad direction before his entry. He'd been slumping for a lot of the second half, and his future with this team isn't exactly guaranteed. He's a more established player than Casey by a long shot, and for that reason, he's a guy that would have a lot more trade value. He's about to be arbitration eligible for the first time, and even though he's really useful player for obvious reasons with his bats ball quality, with his base running, with his defense. It's, he doesn't have that defensive versatility that the team loves. He's locked in at that one particular position. And, uh, we talked about Sonoha being a guy that like all of a sudden, is there a big difference in quality between Sonoha and Edwards moving forward? Um, yeah, well with X, how important is it for him to finish off this season on a high note after, you know, dipping down gradually.
00:31:44
Speaker 3: I'd like to say, cause he's, he's a really good guy.
00:31:46
Speaker 2: And, um, I don't want to say that, but he really did fool us a little bit with the impact in the first half. I mean, those first two months of the season, man, he was OPSing in the high eight hundreds.
00:31:55
Speaker 3: And since then he's.
00:31:57
Speaker 2: Regressed in a, in a serious way. And in his defense, he has been dealing with some seriously nagging injuries. He should have been placed on the IL probably a little bit sooner than.
00:32:05
Speaker 3: When he actually was.
00:32:06
Speaker 2: But again, yeah, the difference between him and Sanoja is concerningly not that much. The only difference is the speed, in my opinion, the defensive versatility that goes in Sanoja's way. Obviously, Edwards has more speed, but yeah, it was a little bit disappointing because this was a guy that we thought was a shoo-in for the All-Star game this year. And with the impact he was putting over the fence, he had six home runs in the first two months of the season, and then since then he's had zero. He has not homered since May. So I think that You're right. His place on this team is not guaranteed. What's working in his favor is that they don't have exactly many guys knocking on the door in his position. Obviously, they do have Sanoja, who's playing pretty much every single day. But no one in the minor leagues that's really knocking on the door there. So I do think X is starting second baseman next year. He's going to be in the projected opening day roster for 2027, whenever that day does come. But yeah, it was a little bit disheartening to see the way his season has tailed off a little bit. And it just seems to be the theme for everyone on this ball club. They just tail off a little bit in the second half. I'm not sure what happened exactly. But that's something they're going to have to figure out because it's not a coincidence that pretty much every single starting pitcher, every single reliever, and a lot of their guys that shine in the first half have done extremely well. Liam Hicks being the one outlier who's playing really well for the Tampa Bay Rays, unfortunately. But yeah, X, I still think he's an extremely valuable player. He's a three-win player despite all the struggles. He's probably struggled more than he has succeeded this season. There's more of a sample of the struggles than the success. So still a three-win player, a really good second baseman, prototypical leadoff hitter, or he can hit four or three.
00:33:41
Speaker 3: He's not going to strike out a lot at all. In fact, he barely strikes out.
00:33:45
Speaker 2: So there's definitely a lane for him to be an everyday major leaguer, even on the best teams in Major League Baseball. But, yeah, the durability seems to be a concern towards the end of the year.
00:33:56
Speaker 1: Let me quickly just pull up this number to make sure I had it right, just to tie together a few different things that you touched on there. It's going to be pretty fascinating when all is said and done and the dust settles to think that out of Otto, Liam Hicks, and X, that X is probably going to finish with the lowest batting average of those three. Coming into the season, that was totally unimaginable. X was the top-of-mind batting title contender on this team. He's the quintessential guy that does that. And the overall numbers, despite, as you said, how he slipped off, the overall numbers are going to be solid this year. But it's still, considering that they've gotten such big overachievement from both Otto and now Hicks, both before and since he's been traded, that's interesting to think about in hindsight and look at that. Even Javier Sanoja, he's going to just miss qualifying for a batting title, but the fact that even Sanoja might be, at this moment, he's several points ahead of X for that as well.
00:34:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's unfortunate because I was a huge advocate that X was.
00:34:54
Speaker 3: Inarguably a better player than Luis Uribe.
00:34:57
Speaker 2: And here they are in September and Luis Uribe is having a much better season in all facets of the game.
00:35:02
Speaker 3: Even defensively, Luis Uribe is taking a step forward.
00:35:05
Speaker 2: With Sonoha being pretty much more valuable than Xavier Edwards, it's tough. Edwards has a 737 OPS as we enter tomorrow's series against Arizona. But yeah, that was concerning because that was I was certain that Edwards would be the more valuable player than Louisa Rice in 2026. I guess Ron Washington can do a lot defensively, and Louisa Rice is having that prototypical 2023 Louisa Rice season, and it's unfortunate to watch.
00:35:36
Speaker 1: Okay. As we wind down here, let us quickly take a look at this next series against the Arizona Diamondbacks coming up. Three games in Arizona. The final road trip of the regular season. Let that sink in. The very final road trip of the Marlins regular season begins. Three cities, starting with Arizona, then San Diego after that, and finishing up with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. So these three games against the Diamondbacks, it's Sandy against Corbin Burns in that first game. That's going to be fun. Burns fresh off the IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jansen Junk and Michael Soroka in that second game. Ryan Gusto and Merrill Kelly in the third one. The Marlins swept the D-backs when these teams met in Miami earlier in the year, and you could see the record comparison there. For people that maintain the delusion that it ain't over yet, there's a five-game gap between these teams, and they're about to play three head-to-head with the Marlins almost assured of winning the tiebreaker between them. So if they're going to go on a miracle run, it has to continue now. I won't say it has to start now. It started the last couple days against the Dodgers. It's going to have to continue with them winning essentially every single game the rest of the year and getting some help along the way. So, yeah, this matchup with the D-backs comes first between these teams. I think they will miss Zach Gallin, old friend Zach Gallin, who has had an awful year for them and has been on the aisle for most of that season overall. Yeah, I guess it's an opportunity to compare the two teams that are ahead of the Marlins and are blocking the Marlins in this wildcard race, the D-backs and the Padres. We got to look at the D-backs first. Between the two, which of these teams do you think is the more complete team, Isaac, and the one that's going to be a more formidable challenge head-to-head this upcoming week for the Marlins?
00:37:19
Speaker 2: I think post-deadline, the Padres did enough to really solidify themselves as NL contenders, not only just NL West or NL Wildcard contenders, but I think they are solidifying themselves as NL contenders to throw in the Dodgers. They're just so complete in every facet of the game. They have the back end of the bullpen set. They really added to the rotation, and their everyday lineup is just good enough. I know they're having some down years from Fernando Tatis Jr. Even Jackson Merrill isn't having the best season of his career, but they're the more complete team in my eyes. What's the bigger shock to me is that the Pirates are coming back. It's post-deadline. They really went on a skid, and some of their big acquisitions were really struggling, sort of like the Yankees in 2023. And there, I couldn't believe that you showed me the graphic and they find themselves ahead of the Marlins at 500 at 75 and 75. I'm not too worried about them. Back when the Marlins were tied with six teams, like the Cardinals and the Reds for that wildcard spot, I wasn't too worried about those teams. I wasn't worried about the Pirates, but I was worried about the Padres and Diamondbacks.
00:38:20
Speaker 3: And here we are.
00:38:20
Speaker 2: Miami's going to have to essentially go 12-0 to make this interesting a little bit. But I think Miami succeeds in Arizona. We'll do the prediction time later, but... I think San Diego, they've got a lot more going for them, and I think they have a lot more pressure to succeed as well.
00:38:36
Speaker 3: So I think the Padres can make it at least to the NLCS this year.
00:38:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, with this D-backs team, in terms of run differential, they're almost identical to the Marlins this year. In fact, a little bit worse, despite that gap in the standings between them this year. Getting some... Yeah, it's an unusual shape to their season, where their best player, arguably, has been their catcher, Gabriel Moreno. He's been... as good as basically any catcher in all baseball hitting 300 with amazing defense with more power than he's shown in the past. And just an amazingly well-rounded player, uh, all things considered, um, WRC plus in the one thirties. And it's a guy that has been injury free for the most part this season as well. So even Corbin Carroll has been a little bit below his usual standards. Cattell Marte has had some drama on and off the field, and he's been a little bit worse than we're accustomed to seeing from him. So it's been Moreno picking up a lot of the slack. And the starting pitching, the Marlins, we'll see what they're getting from Corbin Burns, because he's a bit of a wild card, having essentially missed the entire year with Tommy John. Their ace has been Eduardo Rodriguez, and they're going to end up missing him in this series, very fortunately. Not only an amazing pitcher this year, but a lefty. A lefty that's actually having success. So That is a bit of a break in these upcoming games that they don't draw him in this scenario. They just got Justin Martinez back from the IL. He's one of the nastier relievers in all baseball when he's healthy, but he missed most of the year. An old friend, AJ Puck, has been out for, I think, the entire year due to a combination of arm injuries. So that's an interesting trade to look back on in hindsight. All the excitement over Davis and De Los Santos when he got here. Puck was amazing with the D-backs when they traded him initially there in 2024, and then he's been He basically hasn't pitched in two years since then. Early in 2025, he got hurt. So that trade might actually turn out amounting to very little when all is said and done despite the initial interest.
00:40:30
Speaker 2: What sucks is that they would know more about that trade had they let Davison at least give him a shot earlier in the year. They had so many opportunities to plug him in at first base pretty much every single day. He's not one of those extreme platoon guys. He actually plays better against right-handed pitching. There was such a perfect lane for him to play. And like you said, Eli, at the very worst, evaluate him to see what you got. And they still have no idea what they have in Davis and De Los Santos.
00:40:54
Speaker 3: And we don't know.
00:40:55
Speaker 2: I know that they're not the highest on him. I think they feel more strongly about Justin Long and Kemp.
00:41:01
Speaker 3: But it's just.
00:41:02
Speaker 2: Infuriating that this was a Bendix guy that they acquired at the deadline. And he was one of their bigger acquisitions, a top 30 prospect. And we still have no earthly idea. how he's going to play in the major leagues, how they don't have no idea. And it's just, that one was frustrating to me. They should have known at least a little bit.
00:41:18
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:41:19
Speaker 1: I look at the numbers continue to like boggle my mind. He's been up four separate times this year. He's stepped to the plate 15 times. He has 15 play appearances in four different stints. That's like one series of just regular play. He's been able to do that. He's played one complete game at the Major League level from start to finish. Every other game, even when he's played, he's been removed from a pinch hitter when a righty comes up or he's coming to the game late as a pinch hitter. It speaks volumes. Actions speak louder than words when it comes to how they feel about Davison.
00:41:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you talk to any major leaguer, or at least any young major leaguer, how tough is it to get your feet wet in the major leagues when you're just coming off the bench late in the game and facing a Tanner Scott or facing a Mason Miller? It's not easy to do that, and it just really hurts your confidence a little bit too when that's the only time you're being used. And obviously, more likely than not, you're going to punch out, right? It's not easy to pinch hit, much less against these elite arms that are in the back end of bullpens, so... I just don't get it. Particularly now, obviously Miami is all but mathematically eliminated. I want him to start every single day. Let him start every single day. If he strikes out 40% of the time and he hits 150, fine. At least you have some sort of semblance of an idea of what he is. But if you're going to go into spring training next year, no less than you did this year.
00:42:39
Speaker 3: It's just infuriating.
00:42:42
Speaker 1: With that, a little teed up for our final segment of the show. This is Prediction Time. This is the leaderboard that was updated prior to this series. I'll have to update it again momentarily before things get underway on Monday night. First pitch, a very late first pitch coming up for the D-back series. That's the last thing we should mention. All three of these games in Arizona, super late night starts, 940 Eastern time on Monday through Wednesday. I don't know how many people outside of us sickos are actually going to be staying up, start to finish to see those games. But we will be staying up, rest assured. And for those of you that are, you'd be great candidates to be super subs of ours. Those are valued subscribers, along with our staffers and live stream guests. Those are the ones that participate in prediction time and we track their performance between every single series. How many games tomorrow's will win, who will be the series MVP as determined by win probability added. It is still super sub David Fernandez is clinging to the lead over Jeremiah Geiger atop our standings, but you can make predictions between now and first pitch on our site in the Marlins discord server as well. And I'll keep them tabulated for us. for everybody to see on fish on first.com. You know how this works, Mr. Isaac, we've been able to get a lot more of your predictions as of late now that you've been on the stream. So holding your feet to the fire yet again, these next three games against Arizona, you know, the stakes, the margin for error, non-existent for the Marlins. How do you think they will do these next three days?
00:44:12
Speaker 3: I think they're going to play a little bit of spoiler here out west.
00:44:14
Speaker 2: They're going to win two out of three, and I think Otto Lopez is going to play a pivotal role there offensively, and he's going to be MVP.
00:44:22
Speaker 1: I'll keep it fun. I'll say that the Marlins are going to sweep this series. They're going to do everything within their power to hold on to whatever thread of interest they can now that football season is underway. So in this series, Otto is a good candidate. I'll mix it up a little bit. I'll say I'll go with Griffin Conine. I think Conine is a guy that we hadn't mentioned on this entire show. He continues to have a very strong finish to his entire season. And going to Arizona, where the ball really flies, and the power that he has, I think he's going to hit a homer, if not more than one, over the course of the series, facing a lot of right-handed pitchers. And as long as that happens, he has that green light to be in the lineup every single night. So that's what I'm looking forward to. It was a question that I posed on Twitter about whether what people care about at this time of year, whether they want to see the Marlins get over 500 or whether they want to see them focus on the future and potentially lose most of their games down the stretch to like optimize draft position. There are a lot of teams like with the same record coming down the stretch of this season. And it'll be interesting to see where the Marlins finish within that jumble of teams. I think it's already clear where they're going to finish an actual post-season race, but in terms of this jumble of teams all floating around 500 in both leagues, I think the perception of this season could vary a lot depending on, what direction they go these final couple of weeks. So yeah, we'll be covering it all for you. Eli Sussman and Isaac Azut for fish on first live here on the FOF podcast, foul territory network presented by jet ski rentals of South Florida. So we're going to be back for another stream on Thursday during that off day. We'll have a fish on filter probably right before then with Isaac, Kevin Baral and AJ Ramos. Yeah, thanks for supporting what we do and tuning in at this stage of the season. Just 12 games left, and we're going to be bringing you all the insights we can on the Marlins' present and future here on FOF. So, yeah, we'll talk to you next time. Enjoy the rest of your football Sunday. And, as always, go fish. Thank you.
